William Raymond Report 2 Forecasting and Econometrics for Robert Vinaja July 29, 2010 FLORIDAAbstract This paper goes over some styles that professor from Florida use to help students learn about forecasting and econometrics. I was able to get information from Three major universities in Florida and compare some the teaching methods. I was delighted to get even some email response back. In all I found out that some teachers use many techniques to teach the students to learn hard subjects like these. William Doerner really takes the lead from my research. He has a amazing interactive web page that shows how to use Stata software. He explains some research he has done in the past and has a great bulletin board for anyone to look at. I only used Florida for my research. Our Teacher Vinaja first told us to sign up for one state and then later changed the requirement to other states. I felt that I had much good information from one state. This was a fun project to learn about different teaching methods from Florida. INTRODUCTION Why Florida one may ask? I choose to use the state of Florida for my research because I visit there often and know much about the state. I love the people and the smells in that state. My dream as a young kid was to someday go the University of Florida. That didn’t happen though. I’m in Texas now. However, my mom is there and tells me all the good news that is happening in Florida weekly basis. This report reveals some of the tactics and strategies some of the professor at the university use to teach their students. I have selected some universities in Florida. They are University of Florida, Florida State University, and University of Central Florida. All university had great data and was well organized. Some of the professors that choose had a combination of great web sites and more information was William M Doerner, Dr. David Scrogin, and Timothy G. Taylor. From the data that I found out about these great professors in Florida is that many of them use different styles to teach their students. Not everybody in the world is going to want to look at statics tables and figure out trends or not. These professors though have managed a way to get the point across to the students and help the nation build stronger younger minds that will be needed to compete on a global scale for the future. WILLIAM M DOERNER William M Doerner goes above and beyond. He really wants students to understand numbers not for the sake of just knowing them. He wants students to have fun looking at trends and understanding the basic fundamentals of econometrics. He currently teaches at Florida State University. Why do I mention him first? He has an incredible web page that shows his philosophy, teaching notes, tutorials, and research. It can be found at http://williamdoerner.com/default.aspx. He currently teaches Introduction to Econometrics in the summer. On his syllabus he explains some of the concepts and ideas that will be taught in the course. The course objectives state that the class will use statistical tools to study real world situations from a economic perspective. Also the students will be able to learn to how interpret and understand regression output data. The required 1 William Raymond Report 2 Forecasting and Econometrics for Robert Vinaja July 29, 2010 book for the course is Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach by Je_rey M. Wooldridge, 2008,4th edition, South-Western College Pub. The software that the students can purchase and use is called Stata Statistical Package. I’m not familiar with this software. I have only used Megastat and Minitab. The professor also have some encouraging tips to succeed in the class. He says in particular that one should, “You must study it, think about it, and work through the analysis.”His guidelines to succeed and stay afloat are as follows. 1 Attend Class: He mentions as a student most important time is spent in the classroom where current event issues discussion will take place and one will be able to apply what is spoken in class to help their grade. 2 Ask Question: This one states basically ask a question and the probabilities of someone else in the class that has the same concern will be high. Therefore don’t feel stupid to ask the question. 3 Devote time to learning the Statistical Package: I don’t know if this means the actually software or not. I have emailed him to and yet to get a response. 4 Do the chapter examples and review: This basically states that definitions are good to know, but actually applying the material is more important if one is going to truly understand the concepts of econometrics. 5 Get Help: This message is for students like me that have no idea of whats going on at first. He claims to form groups, get online help, and find tutors. We at our campus have a similar system. 6 Form study groups: This note is for students that cannot make it to class. If one has a study group than he/she can get the missing information they missed. 7 Study by yourself: This is a must for one to pass the course. Studying in groups is fine but when it comes to test time one has to do it by themselves. I like the way he numbers and addresses the issue of concern to succeed. I know when I first did a lot of my undergraduate course I didn’t know anybody or anything. These notes really do help the student body learn the system and pass the course. Also Farasat A.S. Bokhari notes on his syllabus that commitment is a must. He states that, “This class requires a commitment both to attendance and participation. You are responsible for completing homework and computer assignments on time. Exams will be based on the sorts of problems covered in the homework and assignments as well as on the lecture material (Bokhari 1). William M Doerner has a great website for students and others to learn about economics and other subjects. His can be found at http://williamdoerner.com/default.aspx. Exhibit 1 2 William Raymond Report 2 Forecasting and Econometrics for Robert Vinaja July 29, 2010 SPECIFIC EXAMPLES TO TEACH 1 From the homepage above from Exhibit 1 if one clicks on the for students link, you will be brought to a whole arsenal of great notes. I then searched the term econometrics and found two great videos on how to use Stata Statistical Package. The videos were amazingly well put together with easy understanding of how to use the software. The videos can be found at http://sites.google.com/site/wdoerner/teaching/econometrics. The site in general has a ton of information on economics in general. He gives great editorial articles, research analysis help and many other helpful notes. The students that have him as a teacher are very lucky. The philosophy of William M Doerner is also quite interesting. On his website he has the reason why he teaches and how. This is from the pdf file on how he facilitates the process of learning. “An instructor's role is to provide students with impartial information and the necessary tools to make educated decisions. Clear communication is crucial for effective lectures and I and that students with different learning styles benefit greatly from a variety of teaching methods. In my classes, powerpoint appeals to visual senses, chalk-and-talk covers traditional and logical students, open debates draw in auditory people, online homework stirs the kinesthetic and technological fans, reading assignments help shy or independent learners to blossom, and in-class demonstrations animate the extroverts. To foster rapport, I also send out occasional e-mails to congratulate students who are excelling and encourage those who are having trouble to stop by my office.” I also receive a person email from William M Doerner that reads, “I try to have a mix of technology with "chalk-and-talk. As you might have seen on my web site, I have a few YouTube videos about how to use Stata and other software. I try to incorporate statistical software and real world problems to keep the class lively and interesting. During the homework, students are asked to go out and download data from various sites, cleaning it up, and running regression analysis on the variables. The hope is to provide practical examples to what they might be asked to do by an employer or client. I only teach with Stata, but I know other professors use R or SAS (our forecasting class relies on SAS).” Also I think Sarah Hamersma has on her syllabus some same feelings that William Doerner feels In her syllabus she states that, 3 William Raymond Report 2 Forecasting and Econometrics for Robert Vinaja July 29, 2010 “ the goal of this course is to help you learn to choose the right tools and use them appropriately. To stretch the analogy, I hope the course will help you avoid situations where you are trying to pound a nail into a wall using the back end of a screwdriver – because that’s hard to do and things don’t always turn out so well (Hamersma 1). DR. DAVID SCROGIN The second professor that used some great innovative techniques is Dr. David Scrogin. Dr. Scrogin teaches at the University of Central Florida. His preferred subject matter is Econometrics. His website is located at http://www.bus.ucf.edu/dscrogin/. The course objectives that Dr. Scrogin list to the students are numerous theories in microeconomics and macroeconomics. He also notes that demand curves in general will be particular good to study. His outlying motive for the class though is for the students to use powerful set of statistical/ mathematical tools to understand different sets of variables. With the use of Stata software the students will be able to better understand linear regression models and then explore multiple regression models. These are the topics that Dr Scrogin has put for the summer syllabus for the class. The topics/chapters we will cover include: Topic: Chapter in Stock and Watson: Review of probability and statistics Chapters 2 and 3 Linear regression with one regressor Chapter 4 Hypothesis testing and confidence intervals Chapter 5 Linear regression with multiple regressors Chapter 6 Hypothesis testing and confidence intervals Chapter 7 Nonlinear regression functions Chapter 8 Additional topics in multiple linear regression Outside Readings Modeling Discrete Data: Binary Response and Count Data Outside Readings (Scrogin 1). R. D. Emerson also teaches the same class and on his syllabus goes over much of the same of what Dr Scrogin goes over. Some of Emerson objectives include Least squares procedures are studied, including hypothesis testing, limitations of the standard linear model and alternative estimation approaches. Consideration is also given to nonlinear models, maximum likelihood methods, simultaneous equation models, and limited dependent variable models (Emerson 1). SPECIFIC EXAMPLES TO TEACH 2 As far as his innovative techniques he falls very short compared to William M Doerner. He doesn’t have youtube videos, philosophy, and great thing for students to learn on his webpage. Though from reading his syllabus it does look like most of the things he does in his lecture will 4 William Raymond Report 2 Forecasting and Econometrics for Robert Vinaja July 29, 2010 have a great impact for the students to learn about Econometrics. He is probably for old school than William M Doerner. TIMOTHY G. TAYLOR My last professor that I would like to mention is Timothy G. Taylor. He currently teaches at the University of Florida. The syllabus that I got to pick from the University of Florida website has him teaching the spring class of 2010. The class is called Quantitative Methods in Agribuisness. After looking at the syllabus outline it has much forecasting subjects that we are currently doing with Robert Vinaja. For example Quantitative Methods in Agribuisness class will be learning basic regression, hypothesis testing, and simple moving averages (Talylor 1). The main focus for the class will be the use of statistical analysis in business decision making. The software that the students will be using is excel and Gretl. I have used excel many times and think it’s a great basic statistic software that doesn’t cost much. SPECIFIC EXAMPLES TO TEACH 3 This was a personal email that I had got from Timothy G. Taylor. “I am not sure what you mean by innovative, but id do a lot of estimation and analysis in class using both Excel and GRETL. I am very impressed with GRETL and the fact that it is open source and free means students can have access to it forever.” REVIEW OF STATA, GRETAL, AND, EXCEL Stata 10- is a complete, integrated statistical package designed for data analysis, data management and graphics. This is great software for regression, multiple correspondence analysis and variables. It also has a Mata programming that one can produce and compile code. This is surely a great software package if one is going study and churn lots of data for forecasting. Features include multilevel mixed models, exact logistic regression, multiple correspondence analysis, a graph editor, and time-and-date variables. The software provides hundreds of statistical tools, from advanced techniques to standard methods. Data management commands (Stata 10). Gretl- I have not got to use this software package. It is a open source statistical package that user can modify to their needs. Wikipedia contends that the software is mainly for econometrics. It seems to be very popular among the world because it comes in about 11 different languages. Excel-This is a very basic statistical tool that I have found useful for my stats and forecasting class. I have used the Megastat uprgrade and it competes on a small level with Mini Tab. I like how easy it is to use. Arsham, Hossein mentions in his web site that, “Excel is the widely used statistical package, which serves as a tool to understand statistical concepts and computation to check your hand-worked calculation in solving your homework problem.” I agree with him and I ‘m continuing to improve my skill in learning more on what excel can do for me. Econometrics vs Forecasting 5 William Raymond Report 2 Forecasting and Econometrics for Robert Vinaja July 29, 2010 Annotated Bibliography "Introduction to Econometrics." Syllabus for ECO-4421. N.p., 1 Jan. 2008. Web. 20 July 2010. <http://williamdoerner.com/Documents/ECO4421-2010SUMC.pdf>. This is William Doerner syllabus for econometrics. "ECO 4412 Econometrics." UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS. N.p., 17 May 2010. Web. 20 July 2010. <http://www.bus.ucf.edu/dscrogin/Eco_4412_Summer_2010/eco_4412_syllabus_summer_2010.pd f >. This is Dr. David Scrogin syllabus for Eco_4412 class. "AEB 5516 Quantitative Methods in Agribusiness Course Syllabus." UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA Food and Resource Economics Department. N.p., 1 Jan. 2010. Web. 21 July 2010. <http://www.fred.ifas.ufl.edu/files/AEB5516taylor.pdf>. This is Timothy Taylor syllabus for Food and Resources. Emerson, R. D. . "AEB 6571." ECONOMETRIC METHODS I. N.p., 1 Feb. 2009. Web. 13 July 2010. <http://www.fred.ifas.ufl.edu/files/AEB6571emerson.pdf>. This pdf file shows what will be taught for Emerson econometric methods 1 class. " Stata 10, Scientific Computing." Scientific Computing. N.p., 2 Jan. 2009. Web. 30 July 2010. <http://www.scientificcomputing.com/stata-10.aspx>. This web page shows some highlights of what Stata software can do for the user who take statistical courses. "gretl - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia." Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. N.p., 1 July 2010. Web. 30 July 2010. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretl>. This page is presented by Wikipedia. It shows how Gretl is mainly used for econometrics course. It has tells people that it is open source software that people can add and modify if they like. Arsham, Hossein . "Excel for Business Statistics." University of Baltimore Home Page web services. N.p., 1 Jan. 2009. Web. 30 July 2010. <http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/excel/excel.htm>. This page is made by a professor that shows how to use excel as a statistical software. Its has good information for beginners to use. Doerner, William. "Home Page for William Doerner." Home Page for William Doerner. N.p., 1 Jan. 2000. Web. 30 July 2010. <http://williamdoerner.com/default.aspx>. This is William Doerner personal web site. It has helpful links to help students with Stata Software and shows his research and why he teaches. Hamersma, Sarah . "Economics 7427: Econometric Methods II." University of Florida Department of Economics. N.p., 22 Feb. 2009. Web. 10 July 2010. <http://bear.warrington.ufl.edu/hamersma/Teaching/ECO7427/syllabus-sp2009.pdf>. This is Sarah Hamersma syllabus for Econometric Methods II. Bokhari , Farasat . "Introduction to Economterics - ECO 4421." Florida State University. N.p., 2 Jan. 2010. Web. 30 July 2010. <http://mailer.fsu.edu/~fbokhari/eco4421/>. This is Bokhari web page that has its syllabus for ECO 4421. He also has some SAS and excel turtorials. Forecasting vs econ source ________________ 6 William Raymond Report 2 Forecasting and Econometrics for Robert Vinaja July 29, 2010 7