Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World

Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized WorldMarita Carballo • Ulf Hjelmar Editors Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World 123 Dr. Marita Carballo Dr. Ulf Hjelmar TNS Westgate London, W5 1UA United Kingdom [email protected] [email protected] Reference in this book to Gallup International refers to the Gallup International Association, which is a Swiss Verein that was founded as “Gallup International” in 1947 by Dr George Horace Gallup and his colleagues. ISBN 978-3-540-75752-8 e-ISBN 978-3-540-75753-5 DOI 10.1007/978-3-540-75753-5 Library of Congress Control Number: 2007937662 c 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Production: LE-T E X Jelonek, Schmidt & Vöckler GbR, Leipzig Coverdesign: WMX Design GmbH, Heidelberg Printed on acid-free paper 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 springer.com Preface The book contains results from opinion polls around the world, in total more than 50 countries. As the world becomes more integrated, political and social challenges have become increasingly global, pointing to a greater need for understanding between nations and for finding global trends. Understanding public opinion is integral to modern democracies around the world. It shapes public policies; it helps politicians to connect with their audiences; it reveals underlying issues that are of utmost importance for decision-makers. The initiative for this book has come from TNS Political and Social, a world leader in providing political and social information. TNS provides insights into public opinion, covers elections and analyzes other political, social and economic issues, in more than 70 coun- tries. Each year TNS conducts millions of interviews for clients to understand how the public is thinking or reacting to major issues on a national or international scale. This unique position on the interna- tional market has enabled us to conceive and produce this book. I hope this book will find a big audience. Public opinion polling is a powerful tool in the world of today and we need a thorough discus- sion of its role and its potential in politics and society at large. The following chapters explore and develop this idea. London, September 2007 Marita Carballo Global Head of Sector, TNS Political & Social Contents Preface...................................................................................V Introduction........................................................................... 1 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar Part 1: International Polls The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy .......................................................................... 13 Tony Cowling Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences ........................................................................ 25 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives ........................................................... 43 Pascal Chelala Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization, Investments and the United States ................................... 61 Constanza Cilley How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future?............. 77 Marchella Abrasheva VIII Contents Part 2: Public Opinion Polling in National Elections Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts............................................................................. 93 Richard Hilmer Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling: Lessons from ABC News’ 32-Night Tracking Poll.......... 109 Daniel Merkle, Gary Langer, and David Lambert The Presidential Elections in France 2007 – The Role of Opinion Polls ................................................ 135 Brice Teinturier Voters Lack Commitment: Canada.................................. 153 Richard Jenkins Part 3: The Public Sector in Transition Developing Employment Policy in Europe ..................... 173 Harald Bielenski The School Sport Partnership Programme – Raising Levels of Participation in Physical Education and Sport in Schools in England ............................................ 191 Susannah Quick Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case ............................................................ 207 Ole Ugland Contents IX Part 4: Asia on the Move The Role of Social Research in Development Programs: Examples from India...................................... 229 U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji A Framework for Social Development Assessment ...... 247 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd Polling in Developing Democracies – The Case of the Philippines .................................................................. 267 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez Māori Television Services – Raising Knowledge of Māori Language and Culture in New Zealand ................ 281 Elizabeth Vink About the Authors ............................................................ 293 Introduction Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar In recent years a number of studies have been published about the globalization process and how it affects our societies. 1 It has been shown how the forces driving the process of cross-national integra- tion started many centuries ago and it has been convincingly demon- strated how this process has accelerated within the last couple of decades due to the growth of information technology, the opening of markets in Asia, Eastern Europe etc. We live in a world where global trends affect us all and public opin- ion seems to be among the key elements shaping our democracies 2 . Already back in 1922 Walter Lippmann stated that: “Representative government, either in what is ordinarily called politics, or in industry, cannot be worked successfully, no matter what the basis of election, unless there is an independent, expert organization for making the unseen facts intelligible to those who have to make the decisions.” 3 Lippmann, in particular, referred to the free press as the key institu- tion for the articulation of public opinion and today, more than 80 years later, this seems to be as true as ever. More recent studies have also underlined the essential role the media have as the guardians of 1 Hirst and Thompson 1996; Giddens 2000; Schirato 2003; Friedman 2005. 2 Habermas 1989; Forester 1993; Lippmann 1997. 3 Lippmann 1997, p. 8. 2 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar democracy and the guarantee that citizens can express their views and have an open and rational debate. 4 In democracies it is the voice of the people that counts and that is why public-opinion polling is closely linked to democracy. Nicolas Chamfort, an eighteenth cen- tury French philosopher, surely would not agree with this. In his view “the public opinion is the worst of all opinions” 5 . Chamfort held the view that if an opinion could appeal to a majority it had to be not common sense, but common nonsense. Democracy soon changed this elitist point of view, which ruled in the aristocracy and intellectual elite of the eighteenth century. In the democracies of today it is of vital importance for governments to be in line with the views of the voters. There are various ways to ensure that political leaders and officials stay in contact with the general public and are held accountable for their actions. Elections provide the most essential element of this process. The importance of free and fair elections can hardly be underestimated in modern democracies since they represent the very essence of democracy and political representation. At the same time, it is evident that democ- ratic elections – even if they work flawlessly – are insufficient in terms of ensuring political representation and accountability since elections are exercised only at outstretched intervals and are usually decided by summary judgments rather than reactions to particular acts. As citizens, we clearly need more discriminating instruments to enforce political representation and accountability. 6 Public meetings have traditionally served as mechanisms for en- couraging citizens to express their views on specific political issues and obliging politicians and public officials to justify political ac- tions. The problem we encounter today, however, is that public meetings seem to attract an all the more limited group of people, mainly from political parties, interest groups and other “insider- 4 Habermas 1989; Forester 1993. 5 de Botton 2004, p. 129. 6 Hjelmar, Hilmer and Mueller-Hilmer 2006. Introduction 3 groups”. It is becoming increasingly difficult to attract citizens at the margins of society to political meetings and, as a result, the views expressed at such meetings are seldom representative of the electorate 7 . Public-opinion polling helps to fill this void. Traditional democratic mechanisms do not seem to be sufficiently distinctive and cohesive to fulfil the prerequisites of an effective system of political represen- tation and this, we would argue, has led to an increase in magnitude and importance of public-opinion polling in modern democracies. Public-opinion polling seems to be one of the essential ways of ex- pressing and defining public opinion in society today. For the media it is an effective way of integrating the views of citizens in the pub- lic debate and a powerful way of creating news and setting the agenda. For NGO’s and other stakeholders in the public debate it is a prime instrument to demonstrate support for specific viewpoints and to try to influence the political agenda. For the public sector it is be- coming an essential tool to measure expectations and satisfaction with public services. For politicians, public opinion polls are very effective in terms of showing how citizens view existing policies and how policies could be changed in order to be more in line with “the will of the people”. The political elite needs a more direct relationship with its voters and is therefore tending towards a basic virtue of de- mocracy: to listen to the needs and demands of citizens and link these directly back to policy-making. This view of the political representa- tion process emphasizes the benefits of market orientation: first and foremost the necessity for political parties to understand those it seeks to serve and deliver a product that reflects their needs and wants 8 . The close link between public-opinion polls and democracy is also underlined by the fact that public-opinion polls are heavily re- stricted in countries without democracy. According to ESOMAR and WAPOR, restrictions on the conduct or publication of opinion 7 Hjelmar, Hilmer and Mueller-Hilmer 2006. 8 Lees-Marshment 2004. 4 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar polls are typical of non-democratic countries while more democratic countries tend to oppose censorship in this area 9 Another factor which contributes to the rise in public-opinion poll- ing across the democratic world is the change we are currently wit- nessing among citizens in modern societies. No longer simply citi- zens, they are increasingly seen as “consumers” of political and public-sector services. Public management has in recent years been strongly influenced by new ways of managing public bureaucracies which break with bu- reaucratic virtues of central control and adherence to rules 10 . Public- sector organizations have been given responsibility for service de- livery and have had service delivery separated from policy input and control (a policy/provider divide). The responsibility for the service delivery implies that public organizations have become responsible for the management of their own daily operations – and are judged by their results. Each public organization is in theory able to respond to its own individual market and customers in an effective way, al- lowing an increase in service efficiency and performance. Public- opinion polling fits nicely into this new management regime: it al- lows managers to address the needs, expectations and behavior of the public and adjust every aspect of the organization to align with customer values. This recent development in the public sector has led to a more dy- namic public sector. It has created a bigger focus on the needs of users in a situation where you often have a single-source supplier relationship and users have few other options. Benchmark data about user satisfaction have also helped organizations to monitor progress and create an urgency to improve in a non-competitive market situa- tion. As a result of this, the ability to prioritize has been considera- bly improved in the public sector. Institutional reforms which are 9 ESOMAR/WAPOR 2006. 10 Barzelay 2001, McLaughlin 2002. Introduction 5 most likely to achieve their objective and contribute to user satisfac- tion are given priority today. At the same time this New Public Management approach to public governance has been criticized for applying free market thinking to the public sector by looking at citizens as plain consumers 11 . It has been pointed out that a person’s interest as a “consumer” is only one part of their status as a citizen: consumers have desires or needs while citizens have rights and duties as well. Some public organiza- tions do not deliver a “service” but rather administer democratic values in accordance with the law. These include institutions such as courts, prisons, police, national defense etc. Public-opinion polling has its most obvious use in cases where the main purpose of the organization is to deliver a service and a form of “free market” exists with other possible suppliers: train transport, bus services, day care, education services, hospitals, care for the eld- erly etc. In cases where the delivery of services is outweighed by public administration and control functions the use of public-opinion polling and market research are obviously more limited. Another important element in the shift in discourse from “citizens” to “consumers” is the globalization process. The main actors in the globalization process have widely been considered to be govern- ments and multi national corporations 12 What is emerging now is a third and independent agent in the globalization process: the con- sumer. Consumers have largely been left out of the globalization debate: they have been viewed as pawns of governments and mul- tinational corporations. Viewed through a lens of consumer agency, it becomes clear how global markets and politics seem to be more influenced than ever by rapid changes in consumer de- mand. Consumers demand new products and new services and markets and the public sector adapt as quickly as they can. This is 11 Benyon and Edwards 1999. 12 Eckhardt and Mahi 2004. 6 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar perhaps not new in a number of Western countries, but what is new is that consumers from all around the world are becoming inter- connected, and shifts in consumer orientation happen more abruptly than before and with much more momentum. One exam- ple of cross-national consumer trends is the growing usage of so- cial marketing. Governments tend to use more and more social marketing in order to change people’s behavior (stop smoking, start exercising, stop speeding etc.) and these activities are rapidly spreading from country to country, driven by people’s need to feel safe and avoid risks and, at the same, a government ambition to minimize public budgets. Policy development is another area where governments give increasing priority to research and public- opinion polling. Today, consumers are not as patient and they do not accept authority as readily as before: they demand policies that work. As a result, ministers prefer to formulate policies on the ba- sis of some kind of evidence to ensure that policies prove efficient when implemented and don’t backfire on governments. We have collected a number of case studies from all over the world to further qualify this line of discussion. In total, the book contains 12 in-depth case studies from Argentina, the Balkans, Canada, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. Contributions In the first section, International polls, we focus on the role of opin- ion polls in different regions of the world. The first article by Cowl- ing discusses the concept of democracy and how people’s view of democracy has become more negative in recent years. Cowling ar- gues that we need new democratic tools to solve this crisis in de- mocracy and illustrates how opinion polls could play a part in this process. In the article by Carballo and De Voogd it is shown how opinion polls can help to understand the political environment in the European Union and the United States. Ultimately, this can help Introduction 7 Europeans and Americans to find common solutions to international problems such as the fight against terrorism, and poverty in third world countries. Chelala demonstrates in his article how specific opinion polls, the Eurobarometer and European Values Survey, have been instrumental in the European integration process by continually showing where common values are, thereby helping the policy- making process in the EU. Cilley looks at Latin America in her arti- cle, and the big differences in culture and political viewpoints across the continent. She concludes that these differences could be the ma- jor factor preventing further economic integration in the region. Fi- nally, Abrasheva demonstrates how a specific survey has played a key role in forming a political development strategy for the region of the Western Balkans’ potential EU accession. In the second section, Public-opinion polling in national elections, we take a more country-specific and national approach. We look at experiences with the use of opinion polls in national elections in four different countries: Germany, United States, France and Canada. In his article about exit polls in Germany, Hilmer illustrates how sam- pling procedures, fieldwork, logistics and statistical models are needed to deliver excellent projections. Merkle, Langer and Lambert continue this line of discussion within an American context: they describe the efforts to measure voter preferences in the 2004 presi- dential elections in the United States with particular emphasis on methodological issues. Teinturier, in his article, discusses the presi- dential elections in France in 2007 and how opinion polls played a decisive role in the campaign of Nicolas Sarkozy. In the final article in this section Jenkins looks at a growing problem in democracy: a disengaged, uncommitted electorate that represents a challenge to the future of democratic participation. Jenkins takes us through a four-election period in Canada demonstrating how a specific re- search tool, Conversion Model, can help us understand why this is happening and how deeply rooted this trend is. In the third section, The public sector in transition, we focus on the use of opinion polls within the public sector. Bielenski shows in his article how opinion polls have played an important role in provid- 8 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar ing policy makers with the necessary information in the case of employment policy in Europe. Quick focuses on a specific program in the United Kingdom: the School Sport Partnership Program, which aims to fight poor diet, lack of exercise and obesity among children. This article describes the data collection process, the key challenges it presents, and describes the role which research has played in helping to bring about improvements in this area. Finally in this section Ugland looks at client satisfaction with public ser- vices in Norway. In his article Ugland demonstrates how a system- atic analysis of client satisfaction can help to improve the quality of public services. In the fourth and final section, Asia on the move, we turn to devel- opment programs in fast-growing Asia. We aim to show how social research can play a significant role in the process of transition. Case studies in this section are from India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and New Zealand (the Maori population). Somayajulu and Muk- herji demonstrate in their article how social research has played a key role in India. It looks at all the main phases in development programs: From identifying needs, to facilitating program interven- tion design, to monitoring progress during the course of implemen- tation, to the final evaluation at the end of the specific interven- tions. Lindgren and Budd present a new model for evaluating social development work based on TNS’ stakeholder management model, TRI*M. They show how this model was able to deliver in- sight and clear direction in a complex setting, the Tsunami relief effort in Aceh, Indonesia. Abad and Ramirez show how pre- election polls and exit-poll surveys carried out by reputable survey establishments act as safeguards in the Philippines by quickly estab- lishing probable winners, thus discouraging unscrupulous politicians from committing election fraud. Finally, Vink demonstrates in her article how a specific television service has helped to promote the Māori language and culture in New Zealand. The article describes the research approach undertaken, highlighting the use of Conver- sion Model to meet the research requirements. Introduction 9 References Barzelay, M. 2001. The New Public Management – Improving Research and Policy Dialogue. California: The University of California Press. Benyon, J. and Edwards, A. 1999. “Community Governance of Crime Control”, in Stoker, G. (ed.): The New Management of British Local Governance, London: Macmillan. De Botton, A. 2004. Status Anxiety. London: Hamish Hamilton. Eckhardt, G. M. and Mahi, H. 2004. “The Role of Consumer Agency in the Globalization Process in Emerging Markets”, in Journal of Macro- marketing, vol. 24, no. 2. ESOMAR/WAPOR 2006. The ESOMAR/WAPOR Guide to Opinion Polls including the ESOMAR International Code of Practice for the Publica- tion of Public Opinion Poll Results. Published by ESOMAR/WAPOR. Forester, J. (ed.) 1993. Critical Theory and Public Life. Cambridge, Mass: The MIT Press. Friedman, T. L. 2005. The World is Flat. The Globalized World in the Twenty-First Century. London: Penguin Books. Giddens, A. 2000. Runaway World: How Globalization is Reshaping Our Lives. New York: Routledge Habermas, J. 1989. The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere. MIT: Polity. Hirst, P. and Thompson, G., 1996. Globalization in Question. Cambridge: Polity Press Hjelmar, U., Hilmer, R. and Mueller-Hilmer, R. 2006. Electoral research as an instrument to minimize the gap between political leaders and vot- ers – the uses of TRI*M, paper presented at the IPSA World Congress in Fukuoka, Japan, July 9-13. 2006. Lees-Marshment, J., 2004. The Political Marketing Revolution: is market- ing transforming the government of the UK? Manchester: Manchester University Press. Lippmann, W. 1997. Public Opinion. London: Free Press. McLaughlin, K. (2002) “Lesson Drawing from the International Experi- ence of Modernizing Local Governance”, in Public Management Re- view, vol. 4:3. Schirato, T. 2003. Understanding Globalization. London Sage Publications. Part 1: International Polls The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy Tony Cowling Abstract. This chapter is based on the broad principle that democracy is “rule by the will of the majority”, a very slow changing concept, which is now confronted by a very fast changing, globalising world. It is shown how public opinion polling has developed as a part of the globalisation process and contributes to the democratic process. The article concludes that the concept and perception of democracy is challenged by globalisa- tion and we need to reconsider how democracy should function in the globalised village. 1 Introduction The Greeks had a world for it – democracy comes from Demos (the people) and Kratia (power/rule). It is defined in the Oxford Shorter Dictionary as “a form of government in which the people have a voice in the exercise of power”. A sub-definition is “control of a group by the will of a majority of its members”. Whilst the concept is thousands of years old, it changed very little for over 2000 years, and only in the last 100 years or so has it started to go international, but it is not yet global. Freedom House claims that there was not a single liberal democracy with universal suffrage in the world in 1900, although today over 100 of the world’s nations claim to be democracies (not even a majority you note). The concept of “universal suffrage” is of course even newer – in the United Kingdom women did not get the vote until the 1920’s, and 14 Tony Cowling my French mother-in-law did not have the right to vote until after the Second World War when she was over 50. Hence democracy as defined by the dictionary is still, like “clean water”, an aspiration for most people in the world. Although claimed by over 100 countries, it means, and is, different things to different cultures. In some countries the right to vote does not imply a choice “between” candidates; in most countries nowa- days, the right to vote does not give a voice in the choice “of” candi- dates; in much of the Arab world of course, whilst the will of the people is sounded, at village/city/regional level, this does not culmi- nate in “a vote”. Even in Countries where people have votes, and a choice of candidate, they get elected on different bases – majority winner, proportional representation, transferable votes, et al. Further, in a number of countries around the world, leaders still take the view expressed by General De Gaulle in the 1960’s “You have no need to ask the French voters their views, I know what the French want …” Or, as Patrick Chinamassa, Zimbabwe’s Justice Minister, said in August 2007, “Political reform is not necessary … we are a democ- racy like any other in the world”. Nevertheless, when TNS asks people around the world for their opinion of “democracy”, as we have done a number of times over the past few years, 80% on average still say it is the “Best option” and in the last poll, out of 60 countries monitored, only one (Russia with 41%), had a minority supporting it, and only five countries had less than two-thirds for it. However, when TNS has asked questions about voters “satisfaction” with the system of democracy they have, opinions are much more divided, and in many countries there is a majority of people who are “not satisfied” with the democracy they live in. Churchill’s remark that “democracy may not be the best system of government, but it is the best we have …”, still seems to hold true The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy 15 for most people around the world: but then this statement could also be said about the United Nations or global warming- and we know many people in the world are aware of the urgent need to address changes to both of these. So, if we accept to the broad principle that democracy is “rule by the will of the majority”, then we have a very old, slow changing con- cept which is now confronted by a very fast changing, globalising world. Also, we have in most countries a very old, slow changing establishment (usually called our “leaders”), who owe their power and positions to the existing democratic system in their country, but as TNS surveys show, they increasingly lead a society in which a majority are increasingly aware of, and in many cases rapidly re- sponding to, the effects of globalisation. So, what are these global trends that are changing people’s view of democracy? In this short chapter it is impossible to discuss them all, so I focus on some aspects of survey research, communication and voter opinions, which as a worldwide market research company TNS is actively involved in monitoring. 2 Survey Research and Polling Itself Surveys and polling, particularly in the political and social area, has expanded across the world almost hand in hand with the rise of uni- versal suffrage and democratic voting. Dr George Gallup in the United States during the late 1930’s, and Mass Observation in the United Kingdom around the same time, were evolving methods which would tell governments what people felt on social issues, and their likely voting intentions. Surveys are of course the basis, and in a quantitative form, the only basis (short of an election or referen- dum) on which the views of the majority can be reliably measured. TNS and the other market research companies now monitor on a regular and international basis attitudes to most political issues – hence opinion polling has become a key element of democracy. Opinion polling aims to measure the “will of the people”. 16 Tony Cowling One of the effects of globalisation is that over the last 15 years (a very short time in the development of democracy) the market re- search industry and hence polling has gone global. TNS now has offices in well over 70 countries around the world, and monitors the attitudes and opinions of representative samples of votes on a regu- lar basis in many more. Further, the speed with which these views can be gathered and re- ported (thanks to telecommunications and more recently the inter- net) has dropped from a few months for Dr Gallup, to a few weeks in the 1980’s, to a few days in the New Millennium. Hence, when a leading politician makes a statement or takes a decision nowadays the response of the people within his country can be measured within hours and the views of the world can be reported within days. This changes significantly the democratic environment and how it is perceived. In a perverse way we are getting back to the Greek tradi- tion of being able to bring together the views of the people in real time, and hence have what approaches to a dialogue between leader and led. Let us look at some examples of this. When Bush and Blair indi- cated their plans to attack Iraq in 2003, TNS and some of its world- wide partners were able to measure the views of people in 65 coun- tries around the world within just 11 days. At that time, a majority of the electorate were “against” an invasion in over 60 countries (in- cluding USA and UK). This means the two leaders knew before tak- ing the decision to invade that they were acting “against the will of the majority”. TNS surveys have regularly monitored people’s attitudes towards the various conflicts in the Middle East. In all cases over the past four years there has always been a majority, particularly in both Is- rael and Palestine, for the leaders to “seek a political solution for peace” – that is the will of a majority of the people. As the issues which politicians have to address – drugs, terrorism, Third-World poverty, trade etc. become global issues and the world The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy 17 is aware of global opinion on them, so market research surveys are becoming the fastest and most reliable method of monitoring how people feel, and how their views are evolving on such issues. As the world globalises survey research is increasingly a key tool for actu- ally applying the “democratic process”. 3 The Growth of Information and Its Availability There is no need for me to emphasise how the volumes of informa- tion the world produces on any subject has expanded over the past few decades, and there is no need for me to explain how the internet has transformed it's instant availability. The world is awash with data. Such that it is now possible for almost anyone, and certainly and increasingly in many countries, the majority of voters to obtain many facts and figures on a given issue as rapidly as (so called) ex- perts. Issue groups and involved individuals rapidly become as knowledgeable as and sometimes more knowledgeable than, the de- cision makers. Added to this expansion of knowledge is the fact that more people are more “educated” – politicians across the world increasingly promote the benefits of better education. This growth in education, particularly in the developing world, means of course that people are better able to “make their own judgement on political issues”. This makes it harder for politicians to justify their decisions by claiming that the electorate cannot understand the complexities of a problem. The Eurobarometer surveys that TNS regularly does for the Euro- pean Commission continue to demonstrate that more people have knowledge of and definite views on the decision being taken at Brussels 1 . The growth of information also means that politicians can no longer claim not to be aware of their elector’s views or the me- dia’s summary of them. 1 See http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/index_en.htm. 18 Tony Cowling TNS Media Intelligence is one of the world’s largest gatherers and analysers of media content. In more than 40 countries around the world we provide, for both political and business leaders, regular and fast updates on media coverage of: • Key issues they are currently facing • Public reactions to these issues • How these effect voters image and standing of politicians/ leaders. Again the internet allows TNS to deliver this information far more rapidly than previously – typically on a daily basis and if desired, almost instantly. TNS Cymphony, TNS’ American internet company, now takes this to a new level – monitoring: blogs, individual websites and social net- work sites so that leaders can have real-time analysis of the key views and responses emerging from what has become known as Web 2.0. Hence another mechanism is now in place for democracy – the op- portunity for a dialogue, increasingly at a global level, between: • Those who have to make decisions and • The majority who have to live by them. 4 The Volume of Legislation Estimates for the United Kingdom indicate that over the past 50 years the amount of legislation going through the British parliament has increased at least five-fold, whilst over the last 100 years it has gone up more than ten-fold. This is certainly part of a global trend that in part reflects the complexity of modern life and the number of issues requiring legislation. Yet in most democratic sovereign states there has been little or no change in the frequency with which the voters are The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy 19 given the right to exercise their “majority will”. Elections are typically still held with the same frequency as 100 years ago, and the period for which Presidents and Governments are allowed to rule remains typi- cally four or five years and sometimes longer, but the volume and speed with which they legislate has increased dramatically. Not surprising then that when TNS tries to measure and monitor in- volvement with the political process around the world, the general feeling of electors is one of decreased involvement in and dis- enfranchisement from political decisions. Our leaders now do, and increasingly must, take decisions on issues that did not exist at the time of their election. TNS monitors voter turn-out on a regular basis around the world. Results show that apart from those countries where one is obliged to vote, or pressured to vote, turn-outs are generally in decline – par- ticularly amongst the young. Their views are frequently: • Why vote, when you are not consulted on the issues that arise anyway (e.g. the current plans by European institutions and Member States’ governments to have a “Reform Treaty” without having had one successful referendum of votes on the issue) • With legislation on so many different issues how can I find one person, or one party, that reflects my views on all of them? Allowing voters to put a tick in a box once every four to five years no longer seems to be democracy enough for an increasingly know- ledgable, educated and informed public. 5 The Democracy Index This declining trust in the concept of democracy is perhaps best demonstrated by the Democracy Index™ 2 . This Index is based on 2 See http://www.voice-of-the-people.net/. 20 Tony Cowling Table 1. The Democracy Paradox Elections are free and fair? YES Ruled by the will of the people? No West Europe 73% 72% Middle East (Israel – Turkey) 69% 47% North America 61% 54% The World 54% 67% Asia Pacific 47% 69% Latin America 45% 68% West Asia 36% 60% East & Central Europe 29% 86% Africa 23% 77% the following two questions which have been asked on a number of occasions in approximately 60-70 countries throughout the world. 3 As one might expect a majority of people in the world (54%) con- sider that elections in their country are free and fair. Also as one might expect, the highest scores for elections being “free and fair” are typically in Western Europe (73%) and North America (61%) – in most other parts of the world the average falls below 50%. However, when we asked people the question, “is your country ruled by the will of the people” we get an even larger majority saying “no”! This figure is high in Eastern Europe (86%) and Africa (77%) but perhaps most surprisingly it is also high (72%) in Western Europe. Nowadays, in the 70 countries in which TNS last did this study 4 , there are nearly 40% who believe they live in a country “where the 3 For further info, see www.voice-of-the-people.net. The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy 21 elections are not free and fair”, and so, “the country is not ruled by the will of the people”. The countries at the top of this “mal-contents” group include, maybe not surprisingly, Ukraine, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Russia. However, India (62%), is also included: at first surprising until one looks at some of the other surveys done in India which show a country with dramatically rising ambitions and expectations for a more pros- perous economic future, but where many people consider their country held back by a slow moving, over complicated, “democratic” system! Perhaps surprisingly those countries most pleased with democracy are often ones where it is a comparatively new process. 5 In these countries one might consider the country to be still in the honey- moon period, and having free and comparatively fair elections seems to be a great step forward. An interesting group consists of those countries that come high on both “having free and fair elections” but, at the same time, not being “ruled by the will of the people”. Whilst only about 25% of people in the world put themselves in this group, those countries with a very high score include: Germany (63%), Holland (59%), UK (51%), France (50%) and New Zealand (49%). The Democracy Index for these countries indicates why these people might not bother to vote? These countries most clearly show the gap that is building up in the perceptions of electorates between: • The system used for electing leaders in modern sovereign states, on the one hand, and • The concept of democracy as people understand the word (i.e. “a form of government in which the people have a voice in the exercise of power”). 4 China was the only large country excluded from this study – because of the difficulty of asking such questions there. 5 E.g. Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Kenya. 22 Tony Cowling 6 Concluding Remarks We have suggested that some of the main effects of globalisation are drivers for change in our democratic systems: • better educated and knowledgeable electorates • faster and almost immediate access to massive amounts of facts, figures on key political issues happening in the world • increasing awareness of the opinions and attitudes of fellow electors, i.e. the public • the rapid turnaround of opinion polls – hence politicians and their electors being aware of “the will of the majority”. All these factors contribute to changing people’s expectations of what democracy is and should be! Hence when we monitor peo- ple’s “satisfaction” with the democratic process, TNS increasingly finds larger number of electors dissatisfied with the “democracy they live under”. TNS found last year that less in one in ten Canadians could agree “we are satisfied with the democratic process in our country”. At the same time, a recent review of polls in the USA concluded that on a number of international issues a majority of Americans were dissat- isfied with their government’s stance. 6 In ancient Rome and ancient Greece it was difficult for the leaders to go forward with their proposed actions and decisions unless they had the support of the people. In a globalised world where we are mov- ing towards the globalised village with survey research and informa- tion systems delivering the possibility of real time dialogues be- tween the people of the world and it's leaders, the concept of democracy appears to be in need of a serious make-over. 6 For further info, see http://www.worldpublicopinion.org. The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy 23 This, of course, begs the question: Do the leaders who have achieved power through the old system have the desire or will to move us closer to a democratic concept as defined by the ancient Greeks? Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd Abstract. Key findings of the Transatlantic Trends Survey conducted by TNS in 2006 show that large majorities of Americans and Europeans agree on the importance of global threats, especially those becoming from Is- lamic fundamentalism. Citizens on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean also agree that efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons should continue, and reject military action as the best option to achieve this. Most Americans and Europeans perceive free trade positively and believe it can pull nations out of poverty, although there are concerns about the impacts of opening markets. Americans and Europeans are interested in finding solutions to international problems, being the fight against terrorism and poverty good examples of this concern. 1 Introduction The problems of great topical interest could be perceived differently on the two shores of the Atlantic Ocean. Europeans and Americans show strong support for continuing efforts to prevent Iran from ac- quiring nuclear weapons; both have worries regarding terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism and broadly agree about the benefits of free trade as a tool to fight poverty and promote a more equitable global economy. Differences arise, however, between such a broad goal and concrete measures such as lowering tariff barriers or the issue of how to deal with the flow of immigrants from the poorer to the most advanced economies. And beyond the terrain of mutual understand- 26 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd ing most citizens declare that they would not like to live in a country other than their own, despite their fairly favorable views of some aspects of the globalization process. Looking ahead, the gap between the reported improvement in trans- atlantic relations at the official level and contrary views among the European public and Americans may simply reflect a time lag in the perception of change. Likewise, the persistence among Europeans of a poor view of US President George W. Bush may indicate that their minds are made up and that the emergence of a new context in the transatlantic relationship may have to wait until the 2008 US presi- dential election. 2 The Neighbors Across the Ocean According to a study conducted by TNS on behalf of the German Marshall Fund of the US: “large majorities of Americans and Europeans agree on the importance of global threats, with the largest increase over the past year in those who see Islamic fundamentalism as an extremely important threat, led by the United Kingdom, where the increase was 22 percentage points.” Transatlantic Trends Survey – Key Findings 2006 79% of Americans and 84% of Europeans also agreed that efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons should continue, with only 15% of Americans and 5% of Europeans seeing military action as the best option to achieve this, the survey revealed. The attack on the World Trade Center on 9/11 was the main element fueling these concerns. The bombings of trains at Madrid’s Atocha railway station as well as the terrorist attack in the London under- ground, followed by the aborted plot against flights taking-off from Heathrow Airport could well explain the increase in the Britons’ Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 27 worries about terrorism – as well as the expectations regarding the US role and the debate over the Bush administrations’ policies. According to the 2006 Transatlantic Trends survey, 63% of Europe- ans agreed that further enlargement of the European Union would help it play a more important role in world affairs and a similar per- centage believed it would promote peace and democracy. However, while support for EU leadership has remained strong since 2002 Europeans were divided over how it should play that role, with 46% who thought the EU should strengthen its military power and 51% who disagreed – accordingly, European support for NATO fell from 69% in 2002 1 to 55% in 2006, with particularly sharp fall-offs in support in Germany and Italy. Europeans’ second thoughts about the US have consequently eroded support for Washington leadership, which dropped sharply since 2002 when it stood at 64% of those surveyed to 37% in 2006, the German Marshall Fund survey pointed out – and those who viewed it as ‘undesirable’ went from 31% to 57%. The greatest decline was in Germany, from 68% positive to 43% between 2002 and 2006. Only three European countries considered US leadership more posi- tively than negatively: the Netherlands (51 vs. 44%), Romania (47 vs. 35%) and the United Kingdom (48 vs. 45%). The European public, however, distinguished between their opinion about US leadership in world affairs and their evaluation of Presi- dent Bush, whose rating dropped markedly – there was a 19 percent- age-point gap between the positive views regarding the US and Bush, where perceptions’ of the administration’s handling of inter- national affairs has fallen from 38% positive in 2002 to 18% in 2006 (as against 37% positive for US leadership). Negative attitudes to- ward Bush have also increased in the US where, for the first time since 2002, more Americans in 2006 disapprove (58%) than approve (40%) the way he handles international policies. 1 Spain and Slovakia were not included in the survey in 2002. 28 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd Fig. 1 & 2. European Views of US Leadership in World Affairs & Views of US Leadership vs. Views of President Bush. Source: Transatlantic Trends Survey – Key Findings 2006 In this context, ,the Transatlantic Trends survey carried out by TNS in 2006 also showed that a majority of Europeans (55%) supported a more independent approach to security and diplomatic affairs be- tween the US and the EU, compared to 50% in 2004. These feelings, however, did not have a direct correlation to a shared European idea of how the EU should exert greater influence and leadership. Overall support for strong leadership in world affairs has remained very high since 2002 – 81% of respondents saw EU leadership as desirable in that year and 76% thought the same in 2006. Likewise, majorities of Europeans agreed that further enlargement of the EU would help it to play a more important role on the world stage (63%) promote peace and democracy along its borders, but also a majority (58%) felt that enlargement renders the development of a common European identity even more difficult. The largest per- centages in favor of the further enlargement were found among the two most recent EU member states, Romania (85%) and Bulgaria (82%). There were also differences of opinion as regards whether Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 29 the EU should strengthen its military power or concentrate on eco- nomic power. Fifty-one percent of respondents disagreed with the notion of more military power, while 46% backed this option, with the highest support in Portugal (68%), France (56%) and Poland (51%), while the lowest level was found in Germany (35%). Despite differences about the means of achieving a safer interna- tional environment, Americans and Europeans agreed basically on the major threats they were facing. Concerns about international ter- rorism and Islamic fundamentalism were further heightened after the subway bombings in London, attacks on European embassies and consulates in the Middle East following a Danish newspaper pub- lishing cartoons of the prophet Mohammed and the thwarted plot to destroy transatlantic airliners. Large majorities of Americans and Europeans continued to agree on the importance of a wide range of international threats in the next ten years, including international Fig. 3. Threat Perception in the US and Europe. Source: Transatlantic Trends Survey – Key Findings 2006 30 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd terrorism, Islamic fundamentalism, the global spread of diseases, the growing power of China, violence and instability in Iraq and the prospect of a nuclear Iran. The largest shifts in perceived threats on both sides of the Atlantic between 2005 and 2006 were increases in those who see Islamic fundamentalism as an ‘extremely important’ menace (with a 13 per- centage-point rise in the US and in Europe). Most concerned were the Britons, who registered a 22 percentage-point increase, the Ital- ians (19 points) and the Spaniards (12 points). Likewise, larger percentages of Americans than Europeans saw Iran acquiring nuclear weapons as an extremely important threat (75 and 58% respectively), making it more of a menace than con- tinued violence and instability in Iraq (56 and 45% in America and Europe, respectively). Seventy nine percent of Americans and 84% of Europeans agreed that efforts by the US and the EU to prevent Teheran from becoming a nuclear power should continue. Differ- ences arose when asked about the best means to achieve that goal. Rather than a ‘stick and carrot’ approach, there was a preference for just one of the two depending on which side of the Atlantic. The largest percentage of Americans (36%) preferred economic sanctions, while 46% of Europeans ranked economic incentives as the most desirable option. The German Marshall Fund Survey also showed that only a small percentage (15% in the US, five percent in Europe) favored military action to keep Iran in check, although support for the use of force increased significantly (to 53% of respondents in America and 45% in Europe) should peaceful means fail to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. In France, Germany and the United Kingdom, the countries leading negotiations with Iran for the EU, the public here would also support the use of military power should other options fail and in the case of France and the UK (54 and 46%) levels are even above the European average. Forty percent of Germans would approve of deploying force under such circumstances. Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 31 Fig. 4 & 5. Support for Efforts to Prevent Nuclear Iran vs. Support for Military Force if Diplomacy Fails and EU3 Support for Efforts to Prevent Nuclear Iran vs. Take Military Action if Diplomacy Fails. Source: Transat- lantic Trends Survey – Key Findings 2006 However, the largest percentages in the US (36%) and Europe (47%) agreed that the United Nations could best handle the issue yet on both sides of the Atlantic a willingness to accept a nuclear Iran was ex- pressed (32% in the US, 37% in Europe) rather than resorting to force. The survey showed a shared understanding about the main chal- lenges facing Europeans and Americans. And the erosion for support of American leadership and much more markedly of President Bush’s handling of international matters should not be automatically translated as a sign of Anti-Americanism on the rise. As Pierangelo Isernia has pointed out, Anti-Americanism ‘is an elusive phenome- non.’ 2 People ‘can entertain quite complex and critical views of what the United States does and still have a general positive affective ori- 2 Isernia 2005. 32 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd entation toward it.’ If Anti-Americanism ‘is a psychological predis- position to negatively evaluate the United States, data over more than forty years leads us to think that it is quite a minority view in France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom,’ he added. Euro- peans, rather than being anti-American were increasingly puzzled and concerned by the direction US foreign policy has been taking. Isernia’s research also highlighted ‘the rapidity with which anti- American sentiments recede in the public mind. If elites 3 were not ready to denounce it, it might last longer and take deeper and wider roots and ramifications.’ However, this sentiment ‘is not rooted in firm beliefs about the United States and its role. Anti-Americanism appears rather shaped by contextual factors, mostly related to what the American government does in foreign policy than by emotional or instinctual anti-American reflex.’ 3 Boosting Trade, Fighting Poverty All Europeans were gloomy about the economy. In Western Europe only 17% thought 2007 would bring prosperity, probably because there was considerable anxiety about industrial unrest – almost half Western Europeans (46%) expected to see an increase in strikes and industrial disputes in 2007 and only seven percent believed they would decrease. Americans failed to be upbeat about economic prospects. One in five (21%) thought 2007 would be a year of eco- nomic prosperity, while almost four out of ten said unemployment would go up either a lot or a little in the US. Most Americans and Europeans tend to perceive free trade as a lever which can pull nations out of poverty, although there were concerns about the impact of opening markets – in spite of a majority who saw globalization positively, according to the 2006 survey Perspec- 3 European Elites Survey – survey of Members of the European Parlia- ment and top European Commission officials (also conducted by TNS in 2006). Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 33 tives on Trade and Poverty Reduction conducted by TNS on behalf of the German Marshall Fund. Respondents tended to prefer to asso- ciate development funds with recipient countries active in fighting poverty, promoting democracy and opening their markets. Globalization fears seemed to have waned to some extent but many remained ambivalent. Fifty-two percent of Americans and 53% of Europeans believed they would personally benefit from freer trade, a 6-7 percentage-point increase with respect to 2005 4 . This trend was confirmed in all countries surveyed. In some cases the rise was no- table: Italy (from 51 to 61%), Germany (46 to 53%), the United Kingdom (47 to 53%) and the United States (46 to 52%). Similarly, views on international trade have become more favorable in most countries. 71% of Americans and 75% of Europeans ex- pressed a positive opinion – British, German, Italian and Polish re- spondents were largely responsible for driving the overall European consensus towards support for international trade and declared they appreciate the benefits of freer trade, a viewpoint shared by Ameri- can respondents, although to a lesser extent. In the US, 78%, and 82% in Europe, believed it would enable their countries businesses to access new markets for national products, while 78% in the US and 76% in Europe thought freer trade led to lower prices and more product choices for consumers. There was also a high consensus (71% in the US, 72% in Europe) about freer trade being an instru- ment to make the world more stable by putting people from different countries in contact with each other. However, positive views about the benefits of freer trade were not without their reservations. A majority of respondents in the US and France believed that trade barriers should be kept to protect busi- nesses, even if that meant foregoing faster economic growth. British, Italian, Polish and Slovak respondents were divided on this question but vis-à-vis their American and French counterparts, more of them advocated lowering trade barriers in order to spur economic growth, 4 In 2005, Slovakia was not part of this research. 34 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd Fig. 6. EU Population More Favorable Toward International Trade. Source: German Marshall Found, Key Findings Report 2006 Fig. 7. Keep Trade Barriers vs. Remove Trade Barriers. Source: German Marshall Found, Key Findings Report 2006 Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 35 even if that might put national businesses at risk, and just over half of Germans wished to keep barriers nonetheless. Respondents in France and the US also expressed the greatest con- cerns over trade-related job losses – 59% of Americans and 58% of French respondents agreed that freer trade cost more jobs than it cre- ated. Along with those in the UK, they voiced their concern that en- vironmental and labor standards put them at a disadvantage when engaging in freer trade – 63% in the US and 69% in France agreed on this point. The survey has shown that when it came to further trade liberalization, just less than two in three Europeans and Ameri- cans believe this would help support economic growth and compet- ing in the global economy. Agricultural policy emerged as one of the most controversial issues. The US and Europe account for 67% of worldwide domestic support for farmers, which became a keystone of the New Deal in order to pull the US out of the Great Depression of the 1930s. Large subsi- dies and steep tariffs make agriculture one of the most distorted sec- tors in the global trade system. On the other hand, about 75% of the world’s poor live in rural areas, most of them depending on farming for their income. All face these high barriers to competing in the global economy and for this reason agriculture is where trade, de- velopment and poverty reduction most clearly intersect. More than half of Western Europeans believed that freer trade re- duced food quality and variety because small and specialized produc- ers were unable to compete with large multinational companies. French, German and Italian respondents were most concerned about the negative impact of freer trade on their food supply, while the US and the UK were the only countries where at least one in two believed that freer trade had a positive rather than negative effect on food qual- ity and variety. However, more Europeans than Americans thought that there should be limits to farm subsidies – the US were among those who advocated the strongest support for unlimited payments to farmers, with one in five Americans saying that no such restrictions should be put in place (28% in Slovakia and 31% in Poland). 36 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd Fig. 8. Opinions Toward Agriculture Subsidy Payments. Source: German Marshall Found, Key Findings Report 2006 The US and the European countries (providers of four out of five development assistance dollars) continue to show strong support for giving money to poor countries, although British, Polish and Ameri- can respondents still trailed their Italian and French counterparts, the leading advocates of development assistance. Respondents in Ger- many expressed the lowest levels of positive views on this subject – 40% were against this and 45% opposed the idea that recipient na- tions could set their own priorities when spending the funds. Regarding aid, The Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has recently estimated that ‘on the assumption that the major OECD donors deliver on their public statements, official development assis- tance from the main OECD donors will increase by 50 billion dollars in round numbers.’ This would take it ‘from a little under 80 billion in 2004 to approaching 130 billion dollars in 2010’. 5 5 See http://www.oecd.org/document/25/0,2340,en_2649_33721_3531714 5_1_1_1_1,00.html. Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 37 The sharpest percentage increase was likely to be in Africa, to the tune of an additional 25 billion dollars, taking the level of aid to that continent alone to around 50 billion in 2010. Already, several OECD countries had announced that they would double their own aid to Africa over the next few years, the report added. However, ‘as a proportion of Gross National Income, the level in 2010 (0.36% for OECD members as a whole) remains well below the level of over 0.50% achieved in the early years’ of the DAC’ s existence – it was created in 1960. The OECD report warned: ‘These figures are impressive, but they do need to be treated with some caution. For many donors they imply that aid will be perhaps the most rapidly raising element of public spending year after year. Given the pressures on public budgets in many OECD countries, delivering such increases will be a challenge.’ 6 Both Americans and Europeans placed strong emphasis on alleviat- ing poverty and attacking health problems as a reason for granting aid 7 . More than half of them mentioned these as a justification for development assistance. They also accorded an equal level of impor- tance to aid that helps with disaster relief (34% and 33% respec- tively). When asked about encouraging democracy, preventing breeding grounds for terrorism and contributing to global stability as reasons for giving aid, American and European support ranged from 27% to 38%. Certain differences across the Atlantic were however observed. Americans were a little less focused on poverty alleviation, health issues, democracy promotion and helping poor countries trade than Europeans. Instead, they favored aid priorities that support geopo- litical goals, emphasizing issues like terrorism, global stability and gaining allies as top motives for development assistance. 6 See http://www.oecd.org/document/25/0,2340,en_2649_33721_3531714 5_1_1_1_1,00.html. 7 In this question, respondents were asked to select the top three most important reasons for granting aid to poor countries. 38 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd Fig. 9. Most Important Reasons for Giving Aid. Source: German Marshall Found, Key Findings Report 2006 A key factor to favor aid for poor countries, the survey showed, was whether the recipient was a democracy. Support for aid to democra- cies increased both in the US and Europe, with nearly 90% viewing this kind of assistance favorably – although granting money to coun- tries with non-democratic regimes has gained traction in the US. The divergences were highlighted by the 2006 Transatlantic Trends sur- vey carried out by TNS, which showed that 71% of Europeans sup- ported democracy promotion (24% did not) as against 45% in the US, where 48% said they opposed such initiatives. Likewise, 59% of Americans and 60% of Europeans would continue to support democracy promotion even if the countries in question would be more likely to oppose US or EU policies. However, when asked if they would continue to hold these views if it was likely that an Islamic fundamentalist leader would be elected European support Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 39 dropped to 33%, while 53% of Americans agreed. Fifty-six percent of Americans and 58% of Europeans felt the values of Islam were not compatible with the values of their country’s democracy – the highest percentages among Europeans were in Germany (67%), Spain and Italy (62% in both cases). Although, overall, six in ten respondents in the US and Europe believe that the problem was with specific Islamic groups not with Islam in general. The flow of immigrants from less advanced countries was also a source of concern. The Transatlantic Trends showed that 79% of Americans and 78% of Europeans agreed that large numbers of im- migrants coming into their country was an important threat. The Per- spectives on Trade and Poverty Reduction also highlighted worries about social costs and the negative impact on wages – Americans and Europeans perceived that unskilled-worker wages were more exposed to risk as a result of immigrant workers than those of skilled-worker wages. Half of Americans (52%) and 68% of Euro- peans believed that immigrant workers were often unemployed and a burden on social services. The numbers of immigrants have been steadily increasing over the last years. The 2007 edition of the OECD´s Fact book revealed that the inflow of foreign nationals to OECD countries had risen on aver- age 22% between 2000 and 2004. The preferred Western European destinations for migrant workers have been Spain (with a 95.2% in- crease between 2000 and 2004), the United Kingdom (66.2%), Aus- tria (65.2%) and France (49.1%) – the figure for the US was 11.3%. The trend is however widespread, as shown in the next table. In every European country surveyed, respondents voiced more con- cern over the social costs of immigration than their American coun- terparts. On the other hand, most people in the US and Europe also agreed that immigrant workers created new businesses that added value to the economy and contributed to the success of industries like science, medicine and technology. 40 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd Table 1. Inflow of Foreign Nationals in OECD Countries YEAR 2000=100 OECD average 122.0 Czech Republic 1201.9 Poland 231.9 Spain 195.2 United Kingdom 166.2 Austria 165.2 France 149.1 Australia 131.6 United States 111.3 Germany 92.8 Source: OECD Fact Book, 2007 Fig. 10. Immigration and Its Effect over Skilled and Unskilled Workers. Source: German Marshall Found, Key Findings Report 2006 Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 41 4 Conclusions The information available from the different surveys presented here shows that transatlantic relations are complex. Americans and Euro- peans remain partners, allies and most of the time friends. In many ways, friendship should be considered as the possibility for both par- ties to accept that they can think differently from time to time. Americans and Europeans have common interests in finding solu- tions to international problems. The fight against terrorism, religious fundamentalism and poverty are good examples of this. However, main differences reside in the conception of the means to tackle these concerns. Military action and economic sanctions are often favored in the US whereas the public in Europe tend not to opt for a military approach. The aim to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons illustrates this: 36% of Americans preferred economic sanctions while 46% of Europeans identified economic incentives as the most favorable option. The image of the US government has not recovered since the American intervention in Iraq, particularly in Western Europe. It has to be taken into account, however, that Europeans tend to detach their image of the US in general from their opinions about the ad- ministration in Washington. Europeans are much more in line in this issue with the citizens in the United States than with the United States government. This is an indication of the limited nature of the current crisis in the EU-US relationship. References German Marshall Fund 2006. Perspectives on Trade and Poverty Reduction, a Survey of Public Opinion, Key Findings Report 2006. Key Findings 2006 at http://www.gmfus.org/doc/GMF_TradeSurvey%202006.pdf Isernia, P. 2005. “Anti-Americanism and European Public Opinion”, in S. Fabbrini (ed). America Contested. The Limits and Future of American Unilateralism, London. 42 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd OECD Factbook 2007. OECD. Transatlantic Trends – Key Findings 2006. http://www.transatlantictrends. org/trends/doc/2006_TT_Key%20Findings%20FINAL.pdf A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives Pascal Chelala Abstract. This chapter draws a map of the values of Europeans. In doing so, I draw particularly upon existing literature and Europe-wide surveys such as the Eurobarometer and the European Values Survey. It is shown how the European Union has evolved from a union of a geographical en- tity or a single market to become more and more a human community and a union of people with common values derived from cultural diversity, shared history and collective destinies. 1 Introduction The different stages of the post-war construction of Europe have been articulated around a number of values, the first and most obvi- ous of these being peace. Robert Schumann reflected this as early as 1950 1 in what is considered the declaration which underpinned the creation of the European Union. Here he pointed out that “the con- tribution which an organized and living Europe can bring to civiliza- tion is indispensable to the maintenance of peaceful relations”. Soli- darity amongst nations has also been highlighted as a founding stone of the Community. 1 Robert Schuman – Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Quai d’Orsay, Paris: Declaration of 9 may 1950. 44 Pascal Chelala Fifty years later, a wide range of the current principles and practices of the European Union make reference either directly or indirectly to a set of fundamental values. In 2005, this view of shared values and objectives was to become a major pillar of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe. 2 ‘Values’ are often hard to define, yet they are recognized as the decisive force that drives societies. Under- standing value sets is essential in comprehending the (common) identity of a community of people and the reasons why its citizens act in a particular way rather than in another. 2 Subjective Perception of Shared Values Over the past half-century, the European Union has enlarged its membership, from the original six countries to twenty-seven as of Fig. 1. Shared Values in the EU. Source: Eurobarometer 66 – Autumn 2006 2 Art I-1.2 ‘the Union shall be open to all European States which respects its values and are committed to promoting them together’. Art I-3.1&2. ‘The Union’s aim is to promote peace, its values and the well-being of its people. The Union shall offer to its citizens an area of freedom, secu- rity, and justice …’. A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 45 2007. Its Member States undoubtedly share a common historical and cultural background. However, this is expressed moderately by Citi- zens of the EU, with a relative majority (48%) believing that the Member States are close to each others in terms of shared values. We observe that, in several countries, a significant proportion of citizens believe that they are indeed close to their fellow Europeans in terms of shared values. This is particularly true of Slovakia, with 71% of its citizens feeling that the Member States are close in terms of shared values. France, a founding member of the European Un- ion, stands at the other side of the hierarchy, with the second highest proportion (60%) of respondents who feel that Member States are distant from each other. In other words, the balanced nature of opinion at EU level masks a wide range of views evident in individual countries. As we shall see, however, this mixed picture in terms of the subjective perception of shared closeness in values is somewhat contradicted by the objective findings of other surveys. These often show a notably wider consen- sus on the most important values in the lives of EU citizens. To highlight the shared cultural proximity of the European countries, we start by looking at what is often referred to as “traditional per- sonal values”. Several attempts have been made to identify the fields that people consider to be especially important in their lives. The results of the Eurobarometer conducted in 2003 show the sig- nificant consensus that exists within all the European states as re- gards the importance of the family in the structure of citizens’ val- ues. Indeed, for 82% of respondents the family emerged very clearly as the fundamental element of respondents’ lives, well ahead of health and work. Looking in greater depth at the dynamics of personal values, it is a fact that the conception of a moral duty of work is declining in the 46 Pascal Chelala Which three of the following are the most important to you? Source Eurobarometer 60.1/Candidate Countries EB 2003.5 82% 58% 39% 29% 24% 16% 13% 10% 8% 4% 4% 3% 3% 82% 63% 35% 25% 19% 21% 9% 7% 13% 2% 5% 3% 2% The family Health Work Friendship A partner Money Education Spare time/holidays Religion The arts/culture Sport Sexuality Politics EU15 NMS Fig. 2. Importance of Values European Union 3 . This evolution finds its roots in the continuous economic development of Europe over the last two decades. Work remains, however, an important means of self-fulfilment and an im- portant cornerstone to build one’s social identity on. It is striking to see that, on a lot of questions related to work, the economically active population and the unemployed have views that are somewhat closer than one would perhaps expect. As demon- strates in table 1, this is especially the case when it comes to the role of work in society and its importance in peoples’ lives. 3 This is shown in the last 2 waves the European Values Survey 1990- 1999, Human beliefs and values: a cross cultural sourcebook on the 1999 – 2002 value surveys, edited by Ronald Inglehart, Miguel Basanez, Jaime Diez-Medrano, Loek Halman and Ruud Luijkx „the aspects of life considered very important: Work”. A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 47 Table 1. Importance of Work Please say for each of the following how important it is in your life? Answer: Work Important Self-employed 97% Managers 98% Other white collars 96% Manual workers 96% Unemployed 86% Source: Special Eurobarometer 273: Social Reality The Christian heritage is undeniably a part of European culture. However studies into the values of Europeans reveal that religion has become ever more distant from individuals’ daily lives in socie- ties that are increasingly secular in nature. During the negotiation stages of the draft text of the Treaty establish- ing a Constitution for Europe, several Member States (led by Poland and Italy) were in favour of a clear mention of Christian heritage and values in the final text. Eventually, the approved document recognized in its preamble that the EU draws ‘inspiration from the cultural, reli- gious and humanist inheritance of Europe, from which have developed the universal values of the inviolable and inalienable rights of the hu- man person, freedom, democracy, equality and the rule of law’ 4 . Religious beliefs are unevenly spread in Europe. While on average a majority (52%) of Europeans believes that there is a God, the extent and intensity of this belief are not the same throughout the continent. As shown in figure 3, the main cleavage is between Northern and 4 Treaty establishing a Consitution for Europe : Preamble (Official Publi- cations of the European Communities 2005). 48 Pascal Chelala Fig. 3. Religious Beliefs. Source: Eurobarometer 66 – Autumn 2006 Southern Europe, with considerably higher proportions of believers in latter. The exceptions to this are Ireland and Poland where the proportions of citizens believing in God are also very high (respec- tively 73% and 80%). 3 Collective and Contextual Values In the last years, the institutional activities of the European Union have consistently put common values at the heart of the European construction. Shared values are believed not only to be the backbone of the common identity of European citizens 5 , but also an important objective of the Union as a whole 6 . 5 The Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe, Article I-2 „The Un- ion is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, de- A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 49 In this context, it is important to understand the extent to which European citizens perceive these values as being specific to the European Union. The Eurobarometer surveys have tackled this mat- ter several times, revealing the values that matter most to citizens and comparing them to the values that best represented the Union 7 . Three values stand out as being especially associated with the EU, and to a more or less equal extent: human rights, democracy (both 38%) and peace (36%). It is interesting to see that the values as- cribed to the European Union to a large extent match the personal values of its citizens, for whom personally peace is the most impor- tant value (52%) with human rights in third place (41%) and democ- racy (24%) in fourth place. The exception to this correspondence in values is respect for human life: for 43% of citizens it is a personal value but only 13% see it as a value of the European Union. Ultimately, of those values tested, peace stands as being the most cherished by Europeans personally. A qualitative study carried out in the former 15 Member states confirms how fundamental the val- ues of peace is for citizens and how it underpins European identity: “It was the purpose of the creation of the European Community. Europe was born out of that; it was to avoid another being waged. It’s Europe’s fundamental value.” (Focus group, 2003 France) While this result regarding peace seems unsurprising and self- evident, it does give a good explanation of the ideas that citizens have of the European Union, and positively echoes the founding values set by the architects of the House of Europe. mocracy, equality, the rule of law and respect of human rights … These values are common to the Member States …” 6 The Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe, Article I-3 „The Un- ion’s aim is to promote peace, its values and the well-being of its people.” 7 Eurobarometer 66 Autumn 2006. Questions: „And in the following list, which are the three most important values for you personally? (MAX. 3 ANSWERS)” „Which three of the following values best represent the European un- ion? (MAX. 3 ANSWERS)”. 50 Pascal Chelala Values representing the European Union 38% 38% 36% 24% 19% 17% 14% 13% 11% 10% 4% 3% Human rights Democracy Peace The Rule of Law Respect f or other cultures Solidarity, support f or others Equality Respect f or human lif e Tolerance Individual f reedom Self -f ulf ilment Religion Personal values of Europeans 52% 43% 41% 24% 22% 19% 18% 17% 14% 11% 11% 7% Peace Respect f or human lif e Human rights Democracy Individual f reedom Tolerance Equality The Rule of Law Solidarity, support f or others Self -f ulf ilment Respect f or other cultures Religion Fig. 4. Personal Values and Values Representing the EU A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 51 Furthermore, public opinion about the values best representing the European Union is relatively homogeneous throughout the Member States. In all 27 countries, democracy is one of the three most fre- quently chosen values. The proportion of citizens regarding it as a European value ranges from 26% in the United Kingdom to 50% in Slovakia. The extent to which respondents conceive of peace as a value of the EU ranges from 19% in the United Kingdom to 51% in Sweden. It is one of the three most frequently mentioned values in 22 of the 27 Member States. 4 The New Values Whilst values are often thought to evolve at a slow pace, it is very much the case that European societies have experienced radical changes over the last decades – in the field of morals for example. The societal reference framework of the new generation is no longer the same as it was 30 years ago. This has been very well outlined by the American Sociologist Ronald Inglehart in what he identified as the era of ‘post-materialism’. This post-materialism is best characterised by the increasing impor- tance given to new values such as sustainable development, toler- ance, justice, and respect of religious and cultural diversity. Essentially, the post-materialist shift describes the evolution in val- ues that occurs when economic development has reached a stage where many citizens are no longer predominantly concerned with meeting day-to-day needs. With the satisfaction of material needs related to survival, individuals begin to prioritise what may have previously been only secondary values, such as protecting the envi- ronment, importance of leisure and tolerance. In a very real sense therefore, the economic success of post-war Europe has been a key contributor to the ongoing development of values. 52 Pascal Chelala Protecting the Environment Stripping the concept down to its bare essentials, sustainable devel- opment basically involves meeting current needs without jeopardiz- ing the ability of future generations to do so. In recent years, the European Union has underlined the importance of this concept by consistently linking economic growth, social cohesion and environ- mental policies. This concern is widely echoed by citizens for whom protecting the environment is a priority, even if this involves cutting back economic growth to some extent. To better understand this stance, the Eurobarometer in 2006 contained an interesting exercise, in the form of a split ballot aimed at identifying whether public opin- ion on the protection of the environment envisaged any compromise in terms of economic growth. This preference for protecting the environment at the expense of economic growth is present to a significant extent in all Member For each of the following propositions, tell me if you…? 53 20 40 73 Split A : Economic gr owt h must be a pr ior ity f or ( OUR COUNTRY) , even if it af fects the envir onment Split B: Pr otect ing t he envir onment should be a pr ior it y f or ( OUR COUNTRY) , even if it aff ects t he economic gr owth % Tot al disagree % Tot al agree Fig. 5. Economic Growth vs. Protecting the Environment A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 53 States. However, its expression is stronger in the former 15 mem- ber States than in the new countries which joined the Union in 2004 and in 2007. This is mainly the case for the Split A version of the same question, based on prioritising economic growth, for which a somewhat hesitant positioning is more witnessed in the New Member States. Tolerance Tolerance cannot really be considered as a new value. In a project that has been constructed on the diversity of its Member States, tol- erance has left its indelible traces in the history books of the Euro- pean construction. It is claimed by citizens as being a specific value of the Union. Accepting to be confronted with “the new, the differ- ent, the foreign” 8 is viewed as essential to the shaping of the Euro- pean identity. Considering the abstract component of this value and the important share of subjective elements often associated with it, we should not be surprised to see that within the wider concept of tolerance there are contradictions. The reservations expressed by the European citi- zens often relate to the issue of immigration on which hesitant views are still common. The question in figure 5 was asked in the Autumn 2006 wave of the Eurobarometer. It shows that European citizens have split views on the extent to which immigrants contribute to their country. Overall, the disagreement rate (52%) with this proposal reaches higher levels than the agreement rate (40%). These average results mask significant differences between the coun- tries that compose it: in Sweden close to 8 out of 10 respondents 8 Euractiv.com ‘In search of Europe’s cultural and spiritual values’ March 2005. http://www.euractiv.com/en/opinion/search-europe-cultural-spiri- tual-values/article-136125. 54 Pascal Chelala Fig. 6. View on Immigrants agree that immigrants contribute a lot to their country, whereas only 12% express the same opinion in Slovakia. These differences should however be interpreted bearing in mind the number of immigrants living in each of the countries surveyed – with these a less signifi- cant presence in many of the new Member States. The results of this particular Eurobarometer survey also illustrate how political factors sometimes have an important bearing on val- ues. On the immigration question, respondents who place them- selves on the left of the political spectrum are more inclined to agree with the ‘high contribution’ proposal than those who self- position on the political right (50% versus 36% respectively agree with the proposal). A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 55 Table 2. View on Immigrants and Position on a Political Spectrum Immigrants contribute a lot to (OUR COUNTRY) Agree Disagree DK Left-Right scale 9 (1-4) Left 50% 44% 6% (5-6) Centre 39% 53% 8% (7-10) Right 36% 58% 5% Economic Values: The Market Economy It has already been noted that the performance of the modern-day European economy has contributed to developments in value-structu- res in the continent. A large aspect of this success story is the market economy, which also forms the basis of the European single market. Over the last decade, Member States have been required to signifi- cantly transform their economic policies: Where previously state in- tervention was common in fields such as communication, transport and energy, this has been pared back, to be replaced with an emphasis on competition within open markets to generate economic growth. Whilst these economic principles have influenced the evolution of other values, it is also the case that they have come to assume the status of values in themselves. The Eurobarometer survey shows the existence of a wide consensus on the benefits of a market economy in the European Union. More 6 out of 10 agree that free competition is the best guarantee of economic prosperity (64%). At the same time, a similar proportion believe that the state intervenes too much in their lives (62%), indicating the desire for moving yet further in the direction of reducing government intervention. 9 In political matters people talk of „the left” and „the right”. How would you place your views on this scale? Show card scale from 1(left) to 10 (right). 56 Pascal Chelala For each of the following propositions, tell me if you…? 24 33 64 62 Free competition is the best guarantee for economic prosperity The State intervenes too much in our lives % Total disagree % Total agree Fig. 7. Economic Values As expected, people to the right of the political spectrum express a higher level of agreement with such pro-market views. However, the crucial finding here is that the difference between this group and that of respondents on the left of the political scale is not a large one, with the latter also exhibiting broad support for a non-interventionist, free-market approach. 73% and 67% respectively of people on the right of the political spectrum agree that free competition is the best guarantee of economic prosperity and that the state intervenes too much in their lives. For those on the left of the political spectrum the corresponding figures are 59% and 61% respectively. Spare Time The evolution of societies in developed countries away from materi- alistic aspirations is at the heart of the post-materialism theory. In A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 57 Europe, citizens are seeking greater self-fulfilment and personal ex- pression in place of this material satisfaction. This has been empha- sised in the extent to which they would like to give more importance to leisure and spare-time in their life. The findings from Eurobarometer 66 show that 48% of EU citizens agree that more importance should be given to spare time than to work. Again, the explanation often given by sociologists links the level of importance of spare time to the level of economic develop- ment of the country of living 10 . Fig. 8. Importance of Spare Time 10 Hélène Riffault, Jean-François Tchernia „Les Européens et le travail: un rapport personnel” Futuribles publication July-August 2002. 58 Pascal Chelala However, Eurobarometer results at the country level are at variance with this theory: the agreement level on the importance to be given to spare time is in fact lowest in two of the most developed econo- mies of the EU, namely Germany (27%) and Luxembourg (32%), as illustrated in figure 8. Once more on a question related to work, the economically active population and the unemployed have somewhat closer views than one might expect, as shown in table 3. Table 3. More Importance Should Be Given to Spare Time than to Work Agree Disagree DK Self-employed 48% 47% 5% Managers 49% 46% 5% Other white collars 59% 36% 5% Manual workers 56% 38% 6% House persons 44% 45% 11% Unemployed 48% 47% 5% Retired 34% 58% 8% Students 60% 33% 7% 5 Conclusion Over the last half century, the European Union has evolved from a union of a geographical entity or a single market to become more and more a human community and a union of people with common values derived from cultural diversity, shared history and collective destinies. These shared values guide European citizens on a daily basis in their lives, their work and in the way they interact with one another and with their neighbours. A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 59 Eurobarometer surveys have shown a high degree of correspondence between such personal values and between the founding principles of the European Union. These reassuring findings need, however, to be balanced by the fact that in today’s rapidly changing context, val- ues are undergoing profound transformations. In particular, concern for the environment is emerging strongly in Europe. Whilst the ac- tions of the European Union towards sustainable development have until now been widely appreciated by citizens, un-answered ques- tions like GMOs and the future energy policy of the old continent have the potential to quickly become a source of division. Further- more, tolerance has evolved in a worrying way in some areas, such as immigration. The need for a substantial communication strategy is self-evident in this respect. References Ronald Inglehart, Miguel Basanez, Jaime Diez-Medrano, Loek Halman and Ruud Luijkx Human beliefs and values: a cross cultural source- book on the 1999 – 2002 value survey, (Siglo XXI Editores, Mexico) Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe (Official Publications of the European Communities 2005) Eurobarometer 66: September-October 2006 http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/standard_en.htm Special Eurobarometer 273 : Social Reality. November – December 2006. http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_273_en.pdf Eurobarometer 60.1: Citizens and Sense of belonging. October-November 2003. http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_199.pdf Hélène Riffault, Jean-François Tchernia. Les Européens et le travail : un rapport plus personnel. Futuribles analyses et prospective. July-August 2002. Euractiv.com “In search of Europe’s cultural and spiritual values” March 2005 EU Focus: Delegation of the European Commission to the USA. “The EU: a Community of values”, November 2005. Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization, Investments and the United States Constanza Cilley Abstract Latin America has been growing at its fastest sustained pace in more than three decades, mainly due to favorable external conditions and the region’s increased involvement in the global economy. However, pub- lic opinion displays mixed feelings regarding globalization and foreign investments – people are more skeptical than citizens in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region, although more positive than Europeans and those liv- ing in the US. But results also show sharp contrasts between the different Latin American countries, a feature that can explain the difficulties in de- veloping a continental economic zone. 1 Background Globalization has been one of the most controversial and hotly de- bated issues for years. Although this term has been in widely used for years, it has no precise definition. Globalization is a century-long process, tracking the expansion of human population and the growth of civilization, which has acceler- ated dramatically in the past 50 years. Globalization is an “umbrella term” and is perhaps best understood as a unitary process inclusive of many sub-processes (such as enhanced economic interdependence, increased cultural influence, rapid advances of information technol- 62 Constanza Cilley ogy and novel governance and geopolitical challenges) that are in- creasingly binding people more tightly into one global system. People in Latin America tend to see it as a synonym of world domi- nation by the United States. This focus on Washington’s role as the sole superpower not only encompasses its foreign policy and the deployment of its military strength abroad but also the spreading of its culture and values. Globalization, Americanization, and anti- Americanism are terms which seem tightly knitted together today in Latin America. This is illustrated in the Voice of the People™ Survey which inter- views more than 58,900 people in 63 countries around the world, representing the views and attitudes of more than 1.5 billion global citizens. 35% of Latin America citizens viewed globalization in a positive light and a similar share of those consulted said it was nei- ther good nor bad. Only 15% deemed it negative. The positive/negative views of Latin Americans about globalization must be weighed against the region’s impressive growth rate (IMF 2007) and its increasing involvement in global markets (ECLAC 2007). The IMF has predicted that the region will face “a continued favorable external environment that would result in at least another two years of solid growth, with real GDP increasing a little less than 5% in 2007 and 4.25% in 2008”. Furthermore, the ECLAC (Eco- nomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) has re- ported that “companies from the region are internationalizing at a much faster rate than in the past”. The emerging transnational corpo- rations from the region are instrumental to the bonanza. “The region is adapting to the globalization process by becoming a more active participant in it,” the ECLAC has pointed out. Only 35% of Latin Americans evaluate globalization positively ac- cording to the Voice of the People™ Survey. This is slightly below world average (38% positive) but above the Western Europe average (28% positive), the US and Canada combined (26%) and Central and Eastern Europe (23%). Latin America ranked well below Asia- Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 63 Pacific (52%) and Africa which showed an impressive 71% approval rating for globalization. Within Latin America, the most enthusiastic were respondents in the Dominican Republic (46% positive rating for globalization), Peruvi- ans (45%) and Chileans (44%). Ratings hit rock bottom in Argentina and Mexico – only 26% and 30% respectively evaluated globaliza- tion positively, as shown in table 1. Table 1. General Views on Globalization Argentina Bolivia Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Total A good thing 26% 33% 44% 41% 46% 35% A bad thing 20% 25% 13% 7% 16% 15% Neither good nor bad 35% 26% 36% 43% 32% 35% DK/NA 19% 16% 8% 9% 6% 15% Mexico Panama Paraguay Peru Venezuela Total A good thing 30% 34% 43% 45% 33% 35% A bad thing 26% 13% 17% 8% 9% 15% Neither good nor bad 36% 49% 25% 24% 37% 35% DK/NA 8% 4% 15% 23% 21% 15% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ The survey also showed who it was believed benefited most from globalization: the rich, the poor, or both equally. 58% of those inter- viewed across the world believed that the rich benefited the most, 5% thought it was the poor, and 21% thought that rich and poor benefited equally from globalization. In Latin America, in tune with the world average, 58% said the rich took the lion’s share, 2% believed the poor benefited the most while 28% believed they both benefited equally. Once again, however, 64 Constanza Cilley there are huge differences among the countries in Latin America. In Panama, for instance, 85% of those interviewed said globalization benefited the rich, in Chile and Mexico it was 68%, and in Argentina 65%. Below world average you can find countries like Paraguay where only 48% declared globalization was mostly for the well-off to enjoy. Interestingly, Venezuela clearly departed from the regional trend. Although a mere 2% pointed out the poor as the most blessed by globalization, just 22% said the rich benefited the most – and 45% believed that both the well-off and the poor shared the benefits, as table 2 shows. Table 2. Who Benefits from Globalization? Argentina Bolivia Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Total The rich 65% 57% 68% 61% 67% 58% The poor 2% 3% – 2% 3% 2% Both equally 16% 28% 23% 33% 22% 28% No one 2% – 1% 1% 1% 3% Mexico Panama Paraguay Peru Venezuela Total The rich 68% 85% 48% 62% 22% 58% The poor 1% – – 3% 2% 2% Both equally 25% 13% 36% 25% 45% 28% No one 2% – 3% 1% 10% 3% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ The general perception in Latin America and elsewhere that the rich get most benefits from globalization is somewhat in conflict with macroeconomic data showing Latin America’s good performance. The region has been doing well vis-à-vis “competitors” on the world market, as pointed out by ECLAC. Latin America and developing economies in general seem to be doing better than the rich countries Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 65 in the West. Regional GDP growth has shown remarkable success from 2003 to 2006 and 2007’s projections. In 2004 the GDP growth rate for the world was 4% while Latin America and the Caribbean enjoyed 5.9% growth rates. ECLAC’s projections for 2007 indicate that the world growth rates will be around 3.3% and 4.7% in Latin America, as shown in figure 1. Fig. 1. World GDP Growth Rates, 2003-2007 2 Attitudes Towards Foreign Investment One of the keys to success has been the region’s involvement with global markets according to the ECLAC report. But Latin Ameri- cans still showed mixed feelings regarding international flows of money when interviewed for the Voice of the People™ survey. 56% of respondents from Latin America said foreign direct investment (FDI) is necessary and good. This, however, varied a great deal from country to country. 74% of Dominicans evaluated FDI positively and so did 68% of Paraguayans, followed by Bolivia, Chile, Colom- bia, Peru and Venezuela (all mentions around 60%). The only country where negative answers surpassed positive ones is Argentina, where 66 Constanza Cilley Table 3. Views on Foreign Investment Argentina Bolivia Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Total Necessary and positive 38% 61% 61% 59% 74% 56% Dangerous 48% 33% 28% 38% 22% 33% DK/ NA 14% 6% 11% 3% 5% 11% Mexico Panama Paraguay Peru Venezuela Total Necessary and positive 55% 44% 68% 62% 64% 56% Dangerous 40% 36% 20% 22% 13% 33% DK/ NA 5% 20% 12% 16% 23% 11% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ 48% think that foreign investment is dangerous (against 38% who believed foreign investment is necessary and positive). Argentina’s figures might still reflect latent fears after the strong economic crisis of 2001 and 2002. Worldwide, only two countries besides Argentina showed a majority being against foreign investments – Croatia (50% against) and the USA (44%). Interestingly, money keeps coming in and going out of Latin America despite people’s views on foreign investments. The ECLAC report has stated that foreign investment in Latin America in 2006 reached 72.4 billion dollars, up from 71.4 billion in 2005 and 66 billion dollars in 2004. “This appears to indicate that the region is on the road to regaining a stable position in terms of inward FDI, follow- ing a substantial fall at the beginning of this decade”, stressed the ECLAC paper. Another positive aspect has been the very significant rise of FDI outside Latin America which demonstrated that the region was adapting to the globalization process and becoming a more active participant of this, according to the ECLAC paper. Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 67 Fig. 2. Latin America and the Caribbean: FDI and OFDI Flows Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, ECLAC 3 Attachment to the Homeland Latin American’s mixed feelings towards globalization and foreign investments have a positive correlation to their general views on foreign countries. Thus, large majorities reject the idea of moving to the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy and Germany (Voice of the People™ 2006). Once again, however, the survey highlighted sharp differences among the Latin American countries. Sixty-five percent of Latin Americans said they would not like to live in the US. The most opposed to such a prospect were the Argen- tines – 88% of those interviewed rejected the idea. At the other end 68 Constanza Cilley of the scale, 65% of Dominicans, 58% of Paraguayans and 54% of Peruvians expressed their desire to live in the US. Latin Americans have a very negative view of the United Kingdom. The Falklands War can probably explain why 93% of Argentines said they would not live in Britain, followed by Mexicans (85%) and Panamanians (78%). Resistance to living in the UK seems to be a very strong regional trend: only 39% of Paraguayans answered posi- tively and this was the highest mark for Latin America. Italy stands out as a somewhat special case. A majority of 59% of Latin Americans said they would not like to live there. Even if this is a high number, it was still the most positive rating any country had in the survey. This can be partly explained by the large number of immigrants from Italy living in Latin America. Table 4. Would You Like to Live in the Following Countries: United States, France, UK, Italy, Russia, Canada, Germany, Japan, China? (Positive Answers in %) USA France UK Italy Russia Canada Germany Japan China Argentina 11 16 5 24 2 15 12 7 4 Bolivia 37 30 24 35 9 24 22 33 12 Chile 22 39 27 42 8 41 27 16 9 Colombia 38 48 27 50 12 47 38 32 17 Dominican Rep. 65 55 31 61 8 48 34 29 16 Mexico 22 27 14 29 10 37 22 17 6 Panama 29 27 22 29 5 29 17 15 8 Paraguay 58 44 39 54 13 41 43 24 12 Peru 54 31 25 40 14 29 25 31 17 Venezuela 33 25 18 36 16 29 23 17 14 Total 31 31 19 37 10 32 25 20 11 Source: Voice of the People 2006™ Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 69 4 Latin America’s Views About the Most Advanced Nations The large majority who expressed their lack of willingness to live in countries like the United States, United Kingdom and Italy can be seen as a way of expressing national pride and attachment to their homeland. But it also seems to reflect a negative view in general of the wealthy nations in the West. To test if this is the case, in this sec- tion we will study “the overall opinion” of the United States, United Kingdom and Italy. The United States got very bad ratings. It’s the only country which got as many negative ratings as positive. 38% of Latin Americans viewed the US “very and fairly positive,” 21% opted to be “neu- tral” and 38% declared to have “fairly and very negative” feelings regarding the US. The friendliest feelings were those expressed by respondents in Paraguay (67%), the Dominican Republic (67%) and Peru (64%). The most negative were the Argentines (65%) and the Mexicans (50%). The United Kingdom was generally viewed negatively but not as negatively as the United States. The very negative view of the United Kingdom we experienced earlier is thus not verified here. 20% of Latin Americans had a “fairly and very negative,” view of the United Kingdom compared to 38% in the case of the United States. The most sympathetic towards the United Kingdom were the Paraguayans (54%), followed by Peruvians (45%), Chileans and Dominicans (44% for both). The most negative were the Argentines (43% “fairly and very negative) followed by the Mexicans (21% negative evaluations). Looking at Italy, the strong Italian legacy and presence in Latin America could help to explain its relative good standing in the region. Asked about their overall opinion of Italy, 47% of Latin Americans responded „very and fairly positive,” while 37% said “neutral” and only 7% chose the option “fairly and very negative.” Paraguay and 70 Constanza Cilley Table 5. What Is Your Overall Opinion of the Following Countries: United States, France, UK, Italy, Russia, Canada, Germany, Japan, China? (VERY AND FAIRLY POSITIVE, in %) ARG BOL CHL COL DOM MEX PAN PGY PER VEN Total United States 10 47 27 43 67 35 48 67 64 37 38% Russia 7 22 11 22 16 20 21 20 33 31 21% Canada 28 39 55 54 50 60 40 56 48 39 47% France 30 47 44 53 62 48 33 58 49 44 45% UK 10 41 44 35 44 35 32 54 45 38 33% Italy 39 51 42 49 67 40 30 67 55 48 47% Germany 27 41 46 50 49 42 29 63 48 43 42% Japan 31 65 54 59 71 44 48 58 59 48 48% China 22 43 42 44 66 32 42 38 48 45 38% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ Table 6. Does the United States Play a Positive Role, a Negative Role or a Neutral Role in the Following Issue: the Fight Against Terrorism? Argentina Bolivia Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Total Positive 12% 44% 30% 62% 52% 39% Neutral 71% 34% 55% 21% 36% 43% Negative 7% 17% 14% 16% 7% 13% DK/ NA 10% 5% 2% 1% 5% 5% Mexico Panama Paraguay Peru Venezuela Total Positive 32% 57% 69% 62% 27% 39% Neutral 58% 21% 19% 16% 39% 43% Negative 9% 18% 11% 12% 26% 13% DK/ NA 1% 4% 1% 10% 8% 5% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 71 the Dominican Republic were the places where the highest positive ratings were found – 67% in each country. Chile (42% positive evaluations), Mexico (40%) and Argentina (39%) were the least positive in the region. 5 The US as a World Leader The mixed feelings about the United States among Latin Americans might have something to do with the role of the United States in world politics. Asked about Washington’s contribution to the fight against terrorism, 39% of respondents in the region evaluated it “positive,” while 43% remained “neutral” and 13% considered the US role “negative.” Citizens in Paraguay (69%), Peru and Colombia (62% for both) showed the highest approval ratings, whilst only 12% of Argentines and 27% of Venezuelans shared this feeling. Among those who definitely judged the US negatively in this issue were the Venezuelans (26%), the Panamanians (18%) and the Bolivians (17%). All in all, these ratings are relatively positive and don’t ex- plain solely the overall negative ratings of the United States. 76% 92% 78% 74% 72% 72% 54% Total North America Western Europe Latin America Asia Pacific Eastern & Central Europe Africa Fig. 3. Do You Think Terrorism Is a Threat to Your Country? Source: Voice of the People 2006™ 72 Constanza Cilley When evaluating terrorism as a threat to your home country the re- sults show that Latin Americans are quite worried. They are in tune with the world average (76%) although well below North America (92%), as shown in the following figure. The differences among the Latin American countries proved to be rather big in this issue. Colombia not only ranked first in the region but also in the world (a position it shared with India), with 97% of respondents who identified terrorism as a threat. Regionally, Co- lombia was followed by Peru (91%) – both countries have to cope with terrorist groups, paramilitaries and shifting alliances between them, and drug cartels. Table 7. Do You Think Terrorism Is a Threat to Your Country? Colombia 97 Singapore 78 Luxembourg 60 Sweden 47 India 97 Pakistan 76 Malaysia 59 Czech. Rep. 47 Israel 93 Denmark 73 Macedonia 58 Moldova 47 USA 93 Venezuela 71 South Africa 58 Switzerland 46 Peru 91 Japan 71 Portugal 57 Ukraine 46 UK 90 Korea 71 Bulgaria 54 Taiwan 45 Indonesia 89 Philippines 71 Kosovo 54 Cameroon 44 Russia 87 Norway 69 Poland 53 Hong Kong 43 Spain 85 Kenya 68 Gabon 52 Chile 41 Turkey 85 Paraguay 67 Morocco 52 Croatia 40 France 84 Mexico 66 Nigeria 52 Finland 32 Germany 82 Netherlands 65 Ghana 51 Senegal 32 Panama 82 Dominican Rep. 65 Serbia 50 Austria 29 Thailand 82 Argentina 62 Romania 49 Iceland 25 Italy 80 Bolivia 62 Greece 48 Albania 20 Canada 80 Vietnam 61 Congo 48 Source: Voice of the People 2006™ Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 73 The role of the United States in the world economy was regarded rather positively. 42% of Latin Americans had positive views on this, 36% were neutral and 15% evaluated the role of the United States negatively. This should be weighed against the region’s impressive output over the last years. Latin Americans held opposing views regarding the US contribution to world economic growth. The most confident were the Panamani- ans (65%) and Colombians (61%) while Venezuelans (22%), Chile- ans (20%), Bolivians (19%), Mexicans and Paraguayans (18% for both) ranked at the top of the pessimists’ chart. Table 8. Does the United States Tend to Play a Positive Role, a Negative Role or a Neutral Role in the Following Issue: Growth of the World Econ- omy? Argentina Bolivia Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Total Positive 19% 41% 47% 61% 59% 42% Neutral 60% 34% 31% 20% 24% 36% Negative 8% 19% 20% 17% 12% 15% DK/ NA 13% 6% 2% 2% 5% 7% Mexico Panama Paraguay Peru Venezuela Total Positive 35% 65% 57% 58% 39% 42% Neutral 45% 15% 23% 16% 32% 36% Negative 18% 17% 18% 12% 22% 15% DK/ NA 1% 2% 2% 14% 7% 7% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ When it comes to fighting poverty in the world, the United States were evaluated less positively. Only 26% of respondents in Latin America believed the United States had a positive influence, against 48% neutral and 19% who viewed Washington’s actions negatively. 74 Constanza Cilley Peruvians (51%) and Dominicans (49%) were the most positive re- garding the role of the US in the fight against poverty. Respondents in Venezuela (29%), Chile, Paraguay (26% for both), Colombia (24%), and Bolivia (23%) were the most negative. Panama presents the most polarized opinions as it can be ranked amidst those who see US in a positive role (49%) and also, among the least supportive to- wards US regarding this issue (23% seeing US actions as negative). Table 9. Does the United States Tend to Play a Positive Role, a Negative Role or a Neutral Role in the Following Issue: the Fight Against Poverty in the World? Argentina Bolivia Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Total Positive 8% 29% 19% 38% 49% 26% Neutral 71% 42% 52% 37% 30% 48% Negative 8% 23% 26% 24% 16% 19% DK/ NA 13% 5% 4% 2% 4% 7% Mexico Panama Paraguay Peru Venezuela Total Positive 18% 49% 34% 51% 19% 26% Neutral 61% 25% 36% 21% 43% 48% Negative 20% 23% 26% 14% 29% 19% DK/ NA 1% 3% 4% 14% 9% 7% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ 6 Conclusions Latin Americans have shown mixed feelings in almost every topic in the Voice of the People™ Survey. However, some definite trends are perceptible. In almost every issue, Argentines are the most skep- tical regarding current issues and future developments, closely fol- lowed in most subjects by the Mexicans. Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 75 Latin Americans in general view globalization positively, despite nu- merous protest rallies and criticisms from NGO’s regarding the ef- fects of globalization. This is also the case when it comes to assess- ment of the impact and consequences of foreign direct investments – a majority regards the money inflow as beneficial for their countries. But even keeping the above in mind, contradictions arise. It’s not unusual to find that in a given country a majority supports globaliza- tion but, at the same time, believes foreign investments are danger- ous. There is one exception: Argentina. As shown earlier, for most issues, Argentines were those who voiced the most negative opin- ions, followed by the Mexicans, Venezuelans and Bolivians. The region has been analyzed as a whole in a handful of studies. Studies such as the World Values Survey show that Latin America exists as a culture on its own. Basic values such as religious and family attitudes or orientation towards authority are deeply rooted aspects of most people’s outlooks in life. The region, however, also reflects the intersections of a variety of economic, religious and his- torical influences (World Values Survey 2007). We could see in this paper variety in opinions towards globalization, foreign investments, attitudes towards the USA and G8 countries. These differences among countries are a striking outcome of the Voice of the People™ Survey, which shows that attitudes to specific political issues change and show little constraint as was demon- strated by Converse in the early 1960. In this chapter, we tried to identify and explain certain trends, but there is also something less tangible – the soul of a nation or its psy- chological temperament. References ECLAC 2007. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Carib- bean, ECLAC – Unit on Investment and Corporate Strategies of the ECLAC Division of Production, Productivity and Management (2007) 76 Constanza Cilley “Foreign Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2006, Pre- liminary Version.” www.ECLAC.org/publicaciones/xml/4/28394/IE2006- PreliminaryIngles.pdf ECLAC, Statistics and Economic Projections Division 2007. “Statistical Yearbook for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2006.” http://www.ECLAC.org/publicaciones/xml/4/28074/LCG2332B_2.pdf ECLAC (2006) “Preliminary Overviews of the Economies of Latin Amer- ica and the Caribbean, 2006.” http://www.ECLAC.org/publicaciones/ xml/3/27543/Icq2327_i_.pdf International Monetary Fund, IMF 2007. “LatAm: better able to cope with adversity,” IMF Survey, May 7, 2007, vol. 36, No. 8. Voice of the People™ 2006. http://www.voice-of-the-people.net/ World Values Survey 2007. Measuring and Mapping Cultures. 25 Years of Comparative Values Surveys, edited by Esmer, Y. and Pettersson, T., Leiden and Boston: Brill. How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? Marchella Abrasheva Abstract. The presentation of a multi-country survey project which was instrumental in forming a political development strategy for the region of the Western Balkans’ potential EU accession. The survey was carried out in 6 countries in the region, covered the general public and included a tai- lor-made analytical model for describing political patterns of people be- havior. The survey findings were used by an International Commission in the Balkans, a body of senior international policy advisers and decision makers. The project was carried out in 2005. 1 Introduction “Almost a decade after the Dayton Agreement, and almost five years after the fall of the Milosevic regime in Belgrade, the Western Balkans are a relatively stable region with no military conflicts, no ongoing ethnic cleansing, where elections are free, if not always fair. In Thessaloniki in June 2003, the European Union committed itself to integrating the countries from the region. But what does this commitment really mean? (…) The international community has invested enormous sums of money, goodwill and human resources here. It has put 25 times more money and 50 times more troops on a per capita basis in post-conflict Kosovo than in post- conflict Afghanistan. But despite the scale of the assistance effort in the Balkans, the international community has failed to offer a convincing political perspective to the societies in the region. The 78 Marchella Abrasheva future of Kosovo is undecided, the future of Macedonia is uncertain, and the future of Serbia is unclear …” The Third International Commission’s Report 2005 This is the beginning of the report of the Third International Com- mission on the Balkans, the initiator and the primary user of the sur- vey which will be presented in this article. We took the liberty of starting with such a large verbatim for two reasons. It describes in a very concise way the main political issues which had to be addressed by the Commission in its work, and which composed the basic ra- tionale of our survey: to understand the public perception of the state, the constitution and the alternatives. The Western Balkans is quite a specific corner of Europe where the forming of new states after Yugoslavia is an ongoing process. Historically the Western Balkans has always been a fluid concept, with a variety of countries being included or excluded over time. For the survey objectives the Western Balkans included Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kos- ovo, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro. It is often said that public-opinion polls play an essential role in con- temporary societies, not only in Europe, the Americas and developed economies in Asia. Policy makers are increasingly facing the need to consider public opinions, attitudes and motivation as a constituent element of their decisions. In our globalizing world the knowledge and understanding of what people think about policies, even in local matters, can make the difference between failure and success of any political decision. In this case, the survey findings played an important role in the pol- icy process in basically two ways: by examining the positive poten- tials and contributing to risk prevention. People’s attitudes on sover- eignty and the possible change of borders in culturally and ethnically diverse societies have always been a very sensitive subject to study. However, both the research team and the international decision makers’ team, Centre for Liberal Studies in Sofia, shared this under- standing and the responsibility that goes with it. This starting as- sumption was among the most important factors for the ultimate success of the research activities in the project. How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? 79 The general assumption of the Third International Commission on the Balkans was that the post-conflict status quo in the Western Bal- kans has “outlived its usefulness” (The Third International Commis- sion’s Report 2005). After the Dayton Accord (1995), the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina was created in 2001 and a constitutional framework for Kosovo as a UN protectorate was built. Macedonia under the constitutional framework, known as the Ohrid Agreement (2001), remained a multi-ethnic state. Finally, the new State Union of Serbia and Montenegro, negotiated with the intensive input of the European Union, was created in 2002. The current state and border arrangements which marked the end of wars in ex-Yugoslavia have guaranteed some stability and peace but they have also become a barrier to the EU accession of those coun- tries. The EU will only accept functioning and legitimate states. Therefore, solving the constitutional issues in the Western Balkans was viewed as a pre-requisite to moving the region as a whole from the stage of protectorates and weak states to the stage of possible EU accession. Not making significant political changes would lead, as stated by the Commission, to new cleavages on the Balkans, whereby „… Dividing the Balkan societies into winners and losers … in the process of the European integration … can itself be a threat to the stability achieved” (The Third International Commission’s Report 2005). The main policy related issues we were obliged to transform into a public-opinion research agenda can be summarized as follows: • The Kosovo status: to survey whether the outcome of the foreseen policy steps towards full sovereignty and independ- ence would be perceived as a solution by people of Kosovo and its neighbors. Kosovo is currently a place populated by a large majority of Kosovar Albanians and a 10% minority of Kosovar Serbs. Even now, pollsters need to take care to omit the “your country” phrase from all questions, as, strictly speaking, there is no recognized country yet. 80 Marchella Abrasheva • Bosnia and Herzegovina: how stable was the federation? Was it possible to make the transition from the current status as a UN protectorate to a sustainable self government neces- sary for the process of EU accession? • Serbia & Montenegro: to survey whether Serbia & Monte- negro should continue being one functional federation or whether it should be separated into two independent states 1 . There were some concerns on behalf of the EU that inde- pendence for Montenegro would encourage Kosovo to declare its independence from Serbia, thus provoking a possible desta- bilization of the whole region. • Macedonia: how viable was the status quo of this multi- ethnical country consisting of Macedonians and Albanians? Would this country fall apart if there was instability in the re- gion or was it more likely to be stabilized as one state and de- velop towards an EU accession as one state? The general question to be answered was: could the current “ethnical principle” of states be shifted to another formula which recognized diversities? In the current constitutional framework the power is still based on ethnical affiliation. In the Bosnian Constitution, in the Ohrid Agreement related to Macedonia, and in the Kosovo constitu- tional framework, members of various ethnic groups are assured specified quotas. This is one of the main reasons for ending up with weak states. As the report of the Commission stated, the “Balkans are not simply populated by weak states and protectorates, they also suffer the legacy of failed nation-building projects. Building func- tional member states while integrating them into the EU is Brussels’ unique challenge in the Balkans” (The Third International Commis- sion’s Report 2005). 1 The separation of Montenegro and Serbia is already a fact as of 2006, after a national referendum was carried out. How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? 81 2 Research Design The survey design was developed and implemented according to the main aims of the research project. The design of the sample was relatively easy to decide: • Nationally representative surveys for each of the countries/ en- tities in the Western Balkans (aged 18+), comparatively large samples, proportional to population size. • Proper sample coverage of all relevant ethnical and religious groups in each country, such as Macedonians and Albanians in Macedonia, Kosovar Serbs and Kosovar Albanians in Kosovo, Serbs and Croats and Bosnians in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina etc. The questionnaire should focus on attitudes and possible political reactions to a number of hypothetical political developments in each country, trying to ultimately reveal whether a change in one country would lead to a number of (risky) changes in the others? More spe- cifically, in each country and for each ethnical group we were re- quired to explore the potential for domestic, national, and regional crises in a number of “scenarios”: • Unification of Kosovo and Albania in one state • Total and ultimate split of Serbia & Montenegro • Bosnian Serbs to split from the Federation of Bosnia & Herze- govina • Split of Macedonia into an Albanian and Macedonian (Slavic) part The main research topics were the following: • Trust in local, national, and political parties and government institutions • Importance of the nation and religion as motives for political behavior 82 Marchella Abrasheva • Local vs. national minority situation: can people be neighbors in a post-conflict region? • Fears of military and civil conflicts to come • Democratically legitimate vs. radical forms of political behavior • Attitudes to EU membership • Attitudes to the international community in general • Attitudes to the United States • Evaluation of the past and the possible future • Understanding of the nation-state concept This quite complex research agenda was problematic at the ques- tionnaire development stage. Which set of interrelated indicators would give us coherent enough answers to all these issues and which, at the same time, could be used by policy-makers as directly as possible? An analytical model was created based on three pillars: • Attitudinal aspect: would people evaluate an issue or event positively or negatively? • Probability aspect: do people believe that an event is likely or unlikely to happen? How likely or unlikely? • Behavioral aspect: would people do something to make a po- litical event more likely to happen? More importantly, would people do something to stop a political event taking place? Forms of possible political action should be tested, including voting at regular elections or referenda and forms of radical political protest (civil disobedience, armed conflict etc.) The underlying assumption was that all scenarios of political change or policy developments that were negatively evaluated and assumed as very likely to happen and motivating for active forms of political protest should be considered “risky” by the policy makers. Con- versely, positively evaluated options which also had a potential for How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? 83 democratic support should define the area of possibly successful political decisions. Most of the indicators used in the survey were 10-point evaluation scales to allow statistical analysis of the findings and coherent mean score comparisons of key results. All analyses were done for ethni- cal and national groups as well as by country and region. 3 Key Survey Findings The results showed, first of all, that a re-shaping of the borders by a national / ethnical / group criterion was not considered by the people as a solution to the problems overall. In other words, the hypotheti- cal split of Bosnian Serbs from Bosnia and the hypothetical split of Macedonia into a Slavic part and an Albanian part were neither sup- ported, nor considered likely to happen by people in the region as a whole. Moreover, any split by ethnical lines as a pre-requisite for further unification of Albanians into one state (e.g. Kosovo Albani- ans with Albania) was even less supported and not viewed as a probable scenario. The only option that was viewed as acceptable was the ultimate split of Serbia and Montenegro into two independent states. This finding suggested that a peaceful separation of Serbia and Montenegro was not a potential threat to the stability of the Western Balkans. The research team considered this particular chart among the key results of the analytical work done. Firstly, the only “Likely and probable scenario”, the final split of Montenegro and Serbia in two independent states, has become reality after a democratic referen- dum in 2006. Secondly, the research model has proved viable and provided policy makers with reliable answers on the core issue. None of the feared “risky” scenarios, breaking the existing countries and protectorates into their constituent ethnical components, proved desirable or very likely to happen in people’s views. 84 Marchella Abrasheva Fig. 1. Evaluations of Hypothetical Scenarios Another key finding was a lack of support of “ethnically pure” re- gions within a multi-ethnic (federative) country. A majority of the people surveyed (with the exception of Albania and Kosovo) did not support the idea that different nationalities can only live together in one state if each nationality is in a separate region. The existence of multi-ethnical federal states proved to be a possible scenario in the Western Balkans. Survey findings for Bosnia & Her- zegovina presented evidence for this. Despite negative evaluations of multi-ethnical relations in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzego- vina by the Bosnian Serbs, the majority of all people (60%) rejected a possible split of the federation. No real intent of threatening the existence of the Bosnian state was measured among any ethnic group. Therefore, the fear in the international community that Kos- ovo's independence would automatically provoke the disintegration of Bosnia was proved not valid. How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? 85 Fig. 2. Attitudes Towards Living Together in One State or Creating Seperate Regions At the same time, the survey has shown that public attitudes on nation-building and the political future are quite complex. Some of the concerns of the policy makers on the overall situation in the region were confirmed by the survey findings. An example of this was the overall pessimism among citizens in the region, as illus- trated in figure 3. Another interesting finding was the considerable support for a change of existing borders in two of the countries surveyed: Kosovo (among the dominant majority of Kosovar Albanians) and Albania. The focus on the “Greater Albania” theme was quite consistent in Albania and Kosovo. In the other countries this focus on a change of borders was not so dominant, as illustrated in figure 4. If the possibility for a “Greater Albania” or a “Greater Kosovo” was not considered an option by the international community, the survey 86 Marchella Abrasheva Fig. 3. Pessimism or Optimism About the Development Prospects Fig. 4. Change of Borders How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? 87 findings clearly showed the need for a clear message in this respect to the people in these countries and in the region as a whole. People to a large extent support a “Greater Albania” and a “Greater Kosovo”. The survey also pointed to potential problems in Macedonia. As a whole, Macedonians did not support a split of the country into Slavs (Macedonians) and Albanians. At the same time, the relations be- tween Albanians and Macedonians were rated quite negatively in the country’s situation overall and the fear of possible civil and military conflicts was relatively high. The survey findings confirmed the general consensus in the Western Balkans that an EU integration was the preferred solution for the future. At the same time, most respondents doubted that an actual accession procedure would begin in the next five years. EU popularity in the region has been growing and the EU is per- ceived as a resource which can shape and accelerate future devel- opments. EU related attitudes were surveyed two-fold: firstly with regards to overall support for the EU and what it stands for in cul- ture, economy and politics and secondly from a more pragmatic atti- tude – should our country be closer or more distanced from the EU? The distribution of euro-optimists, pragmatics, and euro-skeptics is showed in figure 5. 2 Furthermore, the majority of peoples in the region supported the view that becoming member states of the EU was the preferred solu- tion for the region as a whole, as illustrated in figure 6. Finally, an interesting point to emerge from the survey was that the concept of “ethnical groups” seemed to be in a process of change. To 2 This mode of segmentation was used in a number of other surveys as well, to measure dynamics of „genuine” EU support Vs conditional / situ- ational support. Latest findings in 2006 show a rise of genuine EU acces- sion supporters in Serbia and Macedonia. The model was also applied to measure attitudes to the US and other international arena factors. 88 Marchella Abrasheva some surprise, the survey data showed that the notion of “Albanians” – putting those living in Macedonia, in Albania and in Kosovo under the same banner – did not find full support in reality. Identity appar- ently is not closely linked to ethnical roots alone. 49% 54% 56% 62% 71% 72% 16% 15% 11% 15% 10% 8% 13% 5% 4% 8% 5% 2% 22% 26% 29% 15% 14% 18% Serbia Montenegro Macedonia Bosna & Herzegovina Kosovo Albania Pro-European Pragmatic Anti-EU Not sure Fig. 5. Euro-optimists, Pragmatics and Euro-skeptics Fig. 6. Membership of the EU How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? 89 4 Conclusions The countries in the Western Balkans as a whole have a negative view of the past 10 years of conflicts and the ex-Yugoslavia split but hope for a better future. People generally don’t want borders to be changed again (except in the “Greater Albania” area) but, at the same time, they are faced with ethnically based tensions. Hopes are that the EU can transfer existing states into member states and they are critical of both their own governments and the EU for the post- ponement of the expected changes. For all those living outside the region and keeping a distant eye on the region’s geographical, political and economic situation, the sur- vey provided a number of key messages: • The current status quo of protectorates and provisional consti- tutional framework, created to maintain regional peace and stability has played its role and now needs to be amended to allow further developments towards an EU accession. • There are two possible scenarios which have the potential to destabilize the region: the breakdown of Macedonia and the establishment of a Greater Albania. In particular, Kosovo’s in- dependence is a very complex issue and, if mismanaged, could lead to a destabilization of the whole region. • If the international community fails to offer a convincing European perspective to the region, the overall economic, po- litical and social progress could be blocked. Finally, the survey has proven that the combination of a polling based approach, even on the most complex political issues, and the administrative and political perspective can be inspiring for both and enrich the policy-making process. Reference The Third International Commission’s Report 2005. The Balkans in Europe’s Future at www.balkan-commission.org Part 2: Public Opinion Polling in National Elections Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts Richard Hilmer Abstract. Exit polls are used today in most democratic countries to predict the outcome of an election. At the same time they enable analysis of the voting behavior of different subgroups of the population. For the Market Research Industry, exit polls have a “show-case-function” because they are at the focus of public interest when the first results are broadcast live on TV immediately after the polls have been closed. The live coverage and the comparison of the projected outcome with the real election results de- fine the specific challenges of an exit poll. To guarantee extremely precise forecasts, high methodological and logistical efforts are necessary. The chapter delivers a detailed description of sampling procedures, fieldwork, logistics and statistical models which are needed to deliver excellent pro- jections. 1 Background When a pollster tells people his work involves exit polls, there are two main reactions: admiration or pity. Non-academics lean to- wards the first, their typical question being “How is it possible to tell precisely the outcome of an election just after the ballots have been closed?”, while scientists tend to express the latter when they ask “How can you be so crazy as to produce a projection of an election, the outcome of which will be published just hours later?” In the end, both are right: Yes, it is risky to produce a projection which will be measured against reality just hours later. And yes, 94 Richard Hilmer with only a few exceptions, pollsters forecast the outcome of elec- tions based on exit polls very precisely. It is not a miracle; it is simply a science-based craft, the basic requirements of which I will describe below. Before that, however, there is another question to be answered: Why would anybody spend a lot of money to find out something which he will know for nothing just hours later? The reason is that, for the clients (almost exclusively TV stations), those six hours between the closing of the ballot offices and disclosure of the first official result of an election are crucial. Audiences and political players don’t want to speculate about the outcome, they want to know. It is only be- cause the results of an exit poll are so reliable, that politicians are willing to comment on the results and millions of viewers are willing to watch. (Viewing rates for election reporting are among the highest in most democratic states.) That is why exit polls have become so successful the world over, since they were first carried out by CBS in the USA on the occa- sion of a gubernatorial contest in Kentucky in 1967. But it took another ten years before the practice became state of the art in elec- tion reporting by NBC, CBS, and ABC. It was a huge success story for the pollsters, for the TV stations, and for the political debate, with TV stations in Germany, Great Britain, France, and a lot of other democratic countries following suit. Today, TNS companies carry out exit polls on a more or less regular basis in around 20 countries1. Given this fact and because of the significance of exit polls for political research and the market-research industry as a whole, this booklet should not fail to provide a description of how exit polls are conducted. 1 Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Macedonia, Netherlands, Norway, Philippines, Portugal, Poland, Romania, South Korea and Spain. Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 95 2 The Methodology of Exit Polling Exit polls share many important characteristics with normal surveys: interviewers collect empirical information from a representative sample whose data is processed and analyzed. However, exit polls have particular logistical and economic constraints and a rather unique timeframe. A vast amount of data is collected (mostly on a nationwide scale), processed, and continuously analyzed in the course of only one day, then to be presented, live, just hours, some- times only minutes, later on television. Albeit exit polls deliver extremely precise forecasts, this is only pos- sible because of some fundamental differences between an exit poll and a normal pre-election survey: • The target group of an exit poll is not eligible voters but vot- ers. This distinction is one of the major problems in predicting the outcome of elections based on pre-election surveys, where the share of confessing non-voters is notoriously too low. And because mobilization can differ a lot from party to party, it cannot be precluded that the share of a single party is signifi- cantly under- or overestimated. • In an exit poll, we deal with facts, not with beliefs or inten- tions. In an exit poll, voters are not asked how they intend to vote but which party or candidate they did vote for. • The vote does not date back a long time. In an exit poll, voters are questioned just after having cast their vote, so there is no problem of memory. The proximity of the event even allows the replication of more complex voting 2 . • For the interviewees, the situation is very transparent. They can easily understand the purpose of the survey and what use the results will have – this being one of the major reasons why 2 In Germany, exit polls have been successfully realized in local elections where voters have up to 90 votes. 96 Richard Hilmer non-response rates in exit polls are much lower than in compa- rable surveys. While these characteristics are very important, they are not sufficient for a good prediction based on an exit poll. There are at least three more requirements: optimal sampling, professional field work and data collection procedures, and adequate modeling procedures 3 . Sampling – How to Realize an Optimal Sample? As with any other random survey, the probabilistic sample design of an exit poll has to ensure that every voter has the same opportunity to take part. In an exit poll, this is realized on the basis of a two- stage sample design. Since elections in most countries take place in local voting precincts, the first step is to draw a probability sample of election precincts 4 . Before the sample is drawn, the precincts are grouped into different strata, taking into account factors like regional dimension and past voting behavior (e.g. administrative and geographical units, major parties’ share of the vote). 5 Samples can then be drawn by system- atic random choice from a stratified list of precincts independent of precinct size. This method leads to a self-weighting sample. A num- ber of samples can be drawn and, after the quality is assessed, the best sample is chosen. The most important quality factor – if avail- 3 The paper describes some general standards of an exit poll. Its definite design has to be adapted to the concrete situation in the specific country. Those specifications are mentioned as examples for the United States and Germany. 4 An alternative could be a representative CATI survey of voters on elec- tion day. But because this approach includes some methodological prob- lems and because its projections do not deliver the same quality as exit polls, it is rarely applied. 5 Voting differs between regions, mostly due to different religious affilia- tions and differences in the occupational structure; past voting behavior is highly correlated with current voting behavior. Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 97 able on a precinct level – is the representation of the result of the past election in the “tied sampling procedure” 6 . A major problem is that precincts are subject to change between elections due to mobil- ity and generational change. Most practical problems result from changes in the number of voters between elections and from changes in the boundaries of precincts. Local communities are re- sponsible for the design of precincts and usually no central regis- tration and/or data is available. If precinct boundaries have changed, the discrepancy between old and new boundaries has to be resolved. If more than one election takes place, a more complex sampling procedure has to be chosen. In a second step, voters have to be selected, again on a systematic randomized basis, so that again every voter has the same opportunity to take part. The interviewers are provided with a skip interval and are told to select every n th voter. Intervals are usually tied to expected voter turnout and the total number of interviews desired. The interval can range from every voter in a precinct to every 10th or even more 7 . In some countries, like Germany, maximum precinct size is fixed by law, and so the variation in the skip interval is limited. A determining factor for the quality of a sample is to stick to the given interval. This requires a profound understanding of the proce- dure and therefore intensive training for the interviewer to make sure that the structure of the voters interviewed is more or less identical to that of the entirety of voters. What helps is an excep- tional willingness on the part of voters to take part in an exit poll: the response rate ordinarily amounts to 70 %, but can reach peak values of 90 % and more. 6 „Tied sample” means that the basis for the prediction of the current elec- tion is a sample of the precincts of the preceding election, representing the result of the preceding election as closely as possible. In Germany, the respective preceding election can be a general election or a state e- lection or a European election. 7 In the USA the largest intervals could amount to as much as every 70th voter. 98 Richard Hilmer But there is a restriction to be kept in mind: In an exit poll, the re- quirement that „… all voters should have the same opportunity to take part …” only relates to ballot-box voters. Absentee voting (postal or online voting), which is possible in most countries, can of course not be incorporated into a sample of voters at the ballot box. Their deci- sion has to be either surveyed in another way or estimated 8 . How Big Does an Exit-Poll Sample Need to Be? The size of exit-poll samples depends on the voting system, the complexity of the voting area, and the states or constituencies for which projections are requested. For a majority-voting system, a greater number of precincts is generally necessary, because you need projections based on regional levels instead of a national level. The exit-poll operation for the 1992 general election in the United States therefore comprised 1,310 precincts, because projections had to be carried out in all 49 states. In total, about 177,000 voters were inter- viewed (Mitofsky and Edelmann 1993: 2). Because this operation is extremely cost intensive, the major TV stations in the USA decided to cooperate. Since 1990, exit polling in the United States has been organized centrally by Voter Research and Survey (VRS) and the Voter News Service (VNS)9. In South Korea, which also subscribes to a system of majority voting, TNS carried out an exit poll for the national election in 2004 based on 250,000 exit-poll interviews. In countries with a proportional voting system, the sample for general elections is generally smaller. In Germany, for instance, the sample for a national election includes about 400 to 600 precincts. This sample size is designed to allow separate predictions for eastern and western Germany, since there are still systematic differences in vot- ing behavior between these two parts of the country. If projections for specific regional units (e.g. constituency or city) are required, 8 This can be challenging: In Germany, the share of absentee or postal vo- tes amounts to about 15 % at a national level and 25 % at a state level. 9 The National Election Pool (NEP) has been responsible for this service since the 2004 Presidential Election. Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 99 sample size can be increased accordingly, whereby a minimum size of about 25 to 30 precincts is recommended for every single projec- tion. There are other specific aspects of an electoral system which could influence the design and the size of a sample, like a two-(or more) vote system or special limits on the share of votes which a party has to reach to be represented in a parliament. This is the case for a lot of countries, only that the limits differ. Fieldwork/Questionnaire Another key for the quality of an exit poll is the fieldwork. Even if the procedure for the selection of voters is very clear and transpar- ent, a lot of other statistically relevant details have to be considered. They include • If a couple leaves the ballot booth at the same time, who do you choose? If the choice is not clear, the couple will decide – in most cases in favor of the man • In case of refusal, do you take the next person or start counting again? • Where are interviewers best positioned so they have an opti- mal overview of the location and a good setting for the inter- view? Needless to say, well-trained interviewers are indispensable, and having nationally organized and experienced field staff at one’s dis- posal is a big advantage. TNS companies primarily use their regular field staff (in Germany about 4,000 interviewers). For state or local elections, additional recruiting is necessary. In most cases, inter- viewers receive a comprehensive instruction manual and all the nec- essary field material. Additional instructions are given from field headquarters via telephone, and sometimes local supervisors are in- cluded in the organization and training. Central training sessions may be organized if the costs are acceptable (e.g. in cities). A few days before the election, interviewers are expected to contact the 100 Richard Hilmer person in charge of the election on location, identify the location of their precinct, check the telephone facilities, and transfer test data from their precinct location to central headquarters. In general, exit polls are conducted by self-administered “secret bal- lot” questionnaires. Face-to-face is possible but rarely used because of the sensitivity of the data – “Which party have you just voted for?” – and a demand for strict anonymity. Respondents fold the completed questionnaire, put it into an envelope, and deposit it in a “ballot box” provided by the interviewer. Secret ballot questionnaires 10 reduce refusals and other evasive responses in comparison to face-to-face interviews, and they respect the privacy of the vote. The whole set- ting requires a very concise and clearly laid out questionnaire. Due to the narrow timeframe, the length of interviews for an exit poll is limited. The complexity of the questionnaire differs from country to country and from company to company. Besides the in- dispensable question of the vote just cast, the questionnaire normally includes some basic demographic variables like sex, age, education, and profession. In some countries, religion or trade-union member- ship might be important for party preference, in others such as the USA, it may be ethnic background. The wording of the voting question is more or less standardized. In cases of a more complex voting procedure, the question concerning the vote(s) just cast can be of great importance. For analytical rea- sons, additional questions– (in the USA up to 40) may be added, e.g. concerning party identification, political ideology, major factors in- fluencing the voting decision, attitudes towards candidates and issue preferences. To prevent data processing becoming too complicated, closed-ended questions are posed and contingent questions are avoided. Scales are condensed into moderately broad ranges. Data transfer can be managed by telephone or online. 10 In Germany, a „ballot sheet” with the signet of the – highly reputable – TV client is used to guarantee anonymity and to provide a concrete idea about what the information will be used for. Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 101 Logistics In most cases, an exit poll is a real-time project. The TV station wants to know the exact outcome of an election and broadcast it, at the latest, soon after 11 the ballot stations close. And because in most countries elections are held on a single day, an exit poll has to be accomplished in a matter of only hours. The sample sizes – in USA up to 200,000, in South Korea even 250,000, and in Germany still only 100,000 interviews – and the narrow timeframe require sophisticated and perfected logistics to enable the smooth collection, transfer, checking, and processing of huge data volumes. All indi- vidual procedures need to be extremely standardized and automated. All data has to be checked and counterchecked. As the logistic ef- forts involved in an exit poll exceed those of all comparable surveys, they serve as a test bed for the performance potential of a market- research company. This is especially true when the service is provided not only for one TV station, but for several simultaneously – as is the case in the USA and in Germany. In the United States, NEP has to provide all major networks with the data, including the results of questions exclu- sively asked for each network. In Germany, the TNS company de- livers data on national elections for the live programs of two na- tional broadcasters as well as up to twelve regional TV stations and as many as twenty radio stations. What’s more, the company is also responsible for the production of live animated TV graphics. The lo- gistical framework of such an operation provides an idea of the com- plexity of the task with some 1500 people involved on election day. 11 In the USA, with its different time zones, a delay is prescribed by law. Results may not be disclosed before voting on the west coast has been closed. Much the same is the case in France, where the ballot stations normally close at 6 p.m., with only those in Paris open to 8 p.m. TV sta- tions are not allowed to broadcast their forecasts before 8 p.m. Thus, they can use projections based on countrywide counts, with only the re- sults in Paris being estimates. 102 Richard Hilmer Fig. 1. Election Research: Data Flow 3 Forecast/Projections The undisputable climax of the TV program on Election Day is the disclosure of the forecast of the vote, which is normally based on exit polls. During the course of election night, first precinct counts are provided and constitute the basis for further projections 12 , which become more precise the more counts become available 13 . 12 In Germany, where the counting of votes takes place in public, the in- terviewer has the possibility to attend the public counting of ballots and report the results as soon as they are available to election headquarters. So the sample of the exit poll can also be used for further projections af- ter the closing of the ballot stations. 13 In countries like France, where real counts are already available from precincts which closed before the official end of an election, there is no need for an exit-poll-based forecast. Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 103 The quality of forecasts (and of projections) requires not only an excellent data set but also highly sophisticated statistics models to compute the data (whether they are based on the exit poll or counts). These models differ from company to company and are guarded as company secrets in countries with competing providers. The target is always the same: to come as close as possible to the actual outcome of an election. But some general aspects of sampling and fieldwork do need to be considered. Exit-poll samples can be designed to be self-weighting or can be designed using unequal probabilities of precinct selection. In exit polls, refusals and misses may lead to a bias and have to be con- trolled and eventually corrected by weighting. Weighting requires reliable estimates for the universe, i.e. the voters of the current elec- tion. Weights can be computed taking into account sample design, information available from official sources (e.g. electoral statistics), and information collected in the exit poll (e.g. recall of last vote, information about refusals and misses). A precinct weight could take into account unequal probabilities of precinct selection. In the VNS 1996 national exit-poll sample, therefore, precincts with large mi- nority populations, which were selected at a higher rate, received smaller weights compared to other precincts of the same size. A within-precinct weight takes into account the probability of respon- dent selection. In the 1992 VRS exit polls and the 1996 Voter News Service VNS exit polls, non-interview adjustments were made for voters who were missed by the interviewers or refused to be inter- viewed. This was based on their observed age, race, and sex. After voting closes, precinct returns start coming in and are filed into the computer models for the projections of the election results and estimations of seat distribution. Later at night, when constitu- ency results are available, they are also used in projection models. The rate of precinct returns differs, with the results of smaller pre- cincts coming in earlier than those of precincts with more voters. For projections based on counts, therefore, missing values also have to be taken into account: especially in the first hour after voting closes, only a restricted number of precinct counts are available, which must 104 Richard Hilmer not be accepted as representative of the whole electorate. For those early projections in particular, sophisticated statistical models are indispensable to avoid going astray. So, in the course of the election night, different estimation models have to be applied for computer projections, normally based on ratio estimates, difference estimates, and/or regression estimates. Most of the projections are “tied projec- tions” based on the “tied sample” of precincts. Irrespective, how- ever, of the sophisticated model on which a projection may depend, it always includes a statistical margin of error. In the event of a close outcome, this margin of error might be bigger than the calculated difference between two parties or candidates in a projection. In those cases, the outcome would be “too close to call”. In countries like Germany, where official electoral statistics are avail- able, these can be used for modeling. National and state census of- fices register voting behavior according to age and sex by providing ballot sheets in different colors to the different groups in a represen- tative sample of precincts. This information about voting behavior according to age and sex is published some months after an election and can also be used for the socio-demographic adjustment of an exit-poll sample as well as for optimizing projection models. Another option for weighting exit-poll data is weighting by recall. The exit-poll questionnaire may include recall questions which pro- vide information about past voting behavior within the current elec- torate. But because recall questions have specific problems (in pre- election surveys, for instance), they are rarely used for weighting, but instead for retracing the shift of voting behavior. In countries with the possibility of absentee voting, the voting be- havior of postal or online voters has to be included in the forecast (and to a certain extent in projections, as well) by way of estimation, as long as counts for postal votes are unavailable. That estimation can be based on pre-election survey data and models can be adjusted ex post according to the outcome of the election. Especially in coun- tries where exit polls are used not only for national but also for state or even local elections – as is the case in Germany – this adjustment is very useful as a means of optimizing the projection models. Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 105 In summary: Forecasts and projections are at the core of election reporting and an object of immense public awareness. Confronted only some hours later with the official results, the challenge and the risks surrounding exit polls are enormous – both for the TV station and for the company. That is why both invest a lot in this kind of operation. For the TV stations, election broadcasts are of immense value, and they are given a lot of coverage. For the market-research companies, election reporting (including an exit poll) serves as a kind of “showcase” of their capability to cope with the representa- tion of complex realities. 4 Analyzing and Presenting Results The main purpose for a TV station to conduct an exit poll is to de- liver precise predictions. But the benefit goes far beyond that. Exit polls provide political analysts in the election night itself with fur- ther data of the highest quality. This data helps them to describe pat- terns of voter support for parties or candidates, especially when a comparison with foregoing elections is possible. Of special interest is the voting behavior of men and women, people of different ages, professions, levels of education, and ethnic backgrounds. Religion or union membership (relevant to issues of social conflict and political cleavage) are also of interest – increasingly so over recent years. In countries with a multi-ethnic population like the USA or Switzer- land, ethnic background can be of great relevance. The high number of interviews allows reliable conclusions to be made even for very specific subgroups of voters such as “young, highly-educated women in urban regions”. Despite those demographic variables, particular interest is directed at the motives of voters’ decisions, e.g. party affiliation, issues, and the relevance and image of the candidates or top candidates of a party. Information of this kind may be derived from pre-election surveys or exit polls, whereby the latter deliver more reliable data and allow us to identify the motives of very specific subgroups such as young first-time voters or religiously oriented voters in certain regions. 106 Richard Hilmer The responsibility for data collection and the analytical work can lay in one hand or be split among providers – as is the case in the United States. There, data collection for all the major TV companies is pro- vided by Voter Research and Surveys (VRS). VRS supplies data via formatted cross tabs on computer screens showing voting by demo- graphics, by issue preferences, and by other questions asked in the exit poll. Each participating network and news organization receives the results of its questions and is responsible for its own analysis. For this analytical part of election reporting– including the projec- tions – ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, etc. have their own experienced teams of pollsters. In contrast to this system, the research institutes in most other countries are responsible for empirical and analytical performance, as well – sometimes even for the graphical on-air pres- entation of all information. In Germany, for instance, the task of an institute consists of the delivery of the “prognosis” of the election outcome to be broadcast at 6:00 p.m. sharp; continuous computer projections of the share of the vote and the distribution of seats based on incoming precinct returns; the presentation of ready-to- broadcast graphics analyzing the results based on the exit poll, pre- election survey, and precinct data; and finally the presentation of regional results, the winning candidates, and the final result 14 . To fulfil these tasks, Infratest dimap (the German TNS polling com- pany) has developed an integrated complex computer program com- bining electoral data bases, data processing and analysis, prediction models, and the production of animated, 3-dimensional TV graphics. This integrated computer program also provides a variety of analyti- cal ready-to-broadcast TV graphics which are prepared using the different information sources (e.g. voting behavior in different social groups from exit-poll data, attitudes towards parties, candidates and issues from pre-election survey data). In addition to such individual level data, it also provides a service for analyzing the election on the aggregate level. The sample precincts are categorized according to 14 A preliminary final result is published after the count is finished later at night by the census office responsible for the electoral statistics for the respective election. Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 107 regional, economic, social, and political factors (e.g. region, city, rates of unemployment, strength of parties, etc.). Pre-structured ta- bles periodically provide the party results for each aggregate cate- gory and the wins or losses in comparison with the results of the se- lected previous election. In addition to the precinct level, this type of aggregate analysis is also available at the level of constituencies later at night. 15 Information on the context and the environment of the voters is thus combined with individual level information. The relevance of an exit poll does not end when the election is over. The data delivers enormous insight into voting behavior for ex post analysis. Exit polls thus serve as an inestimable support for the sci- entific community for political research. 5 Conclusion Exit polls are a unique tool for getting a reliable and nuanced data basis about voting behavior. They deliver insight into the structure and motives of party voters and thus serve as an invaluable source of knowledge, including for political players and political scientists. The character of exit polls as a real-time tool makes them so impor- tant for media clients, because they enable them to discuss and comment the outcome of an election right from the time when voting is closed. This ultimately makes it interesting for people to watch election broadcasting and to glean information about the outcome of their vote from such coverage. In a way, exit polls are an indispen- sable part of democracy, because they guarantee maximum transpar- ency. In new democracies, exit polls even have the function of stabi- lizing democracy, because they also guarantee the independent control of vote counting. 15 The aggregate analysis on the constituency level is available later on election night, after the constituency votes have been counted, and is u- sed for further analyses after the election. Part of the aggregate informa- tion about the constituencies and the previous results in the constituency is available from the statistical offices, part is computed by the institute. 108 Richard Hilmer To avoid any misuse of exit polls, scientific boards such as WAPOR and ESOMAR have developed guidelines on proper conduct and on how to publish exit polls, the main postulations of which are: trans- parency, independence and public control, consistency of data and its interpretation, and full anonymity for the respondents. For the sake of avoiding political manipulation, WAPOR and ESOMAR oppose any official regulation of conduct and any restrictions on the disclosure of polling results. Because of the extremely narrow timeframe and the enormous tech- nological and logistical requirements involved, exit polls represent one of the most sophisticated challenges in the market-research business. Given the scale of the public awareness associated with election reporting on television, they also serve to showcase the abilities of the market-research industry as a whole. This is true for TNS, as well. In numerous countries throughout the world, TNS companies have long been successfully involved in exit polling. These companies are obliged to adapt to different conditions for data collection and to deal with different voting systems. This requires the use of a great variety of tools and an unparalleled pool of knowledge, giving TNS an outstanding position in polling research worldwide. Reference Mitofsky, W., Edelmann M. (1993). A Review of the 1992 VRS Exit Polls. Paper Prepared for Presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. May 20-23. St. Charles, Illinois. Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling: Lessons from ABC News’ 32-Night Tracking Poll Daniel Merkle, Gary Langer, and David Lambert Abstract Efforts to measure voter preferences and attitudes in the quad- rennial U.S. presidential elections extend across the months-long cam- paign, starting well before the initial state-level primaries used to pick each party's nominees and continuing through the parties' political conventions and, later, the debates held between the major candidates. ABC News and The Washington Post commissioned TNS to conduct the sampling, data collection and tabulation for their pre-election polling in 2004, culminating in a 32-night tracking poll in the campaign's final weeks. This paper de- scribes the tracking poll process and reviews methodological issues (e.g., interview day of week and number of callbacks) as well as examining the political polling issue of weighting respondents to party identification. The discussion and supporting tables/graphs show that, for the most part, these factors had surprisingly little impact on the results. 1 Introduction Pre-election polls present unique methodological challenges. Unlike surveys that simply sample a known population, pre-election polls in effect seek to sample an unknown population, one that in reality won’t exist until on or about Election Day – voters. The election preferences of non-voters are not germane in seeking to measure and evaluate vote preferences. Thus pre-election polls must make their 110 Daniel Merkle et al. best estimate of the voting population – a modeling process that lays a new level of complexity over the existing methodological issues in survey research of a known population. This paper explores these factors and how they affect survey esti- mates. The issues covered include variability in short-term political party identification, the use of party ID as a weighting factor in likely voter modeling, measurement of voter registration, day of week effects, callbacks, fresh vs. live sample, and listed vs. unlisted phone numbers. The data are from ABC News’ 2004 pre-election tracking poll of over 21,000 respondents, the only media-sponsored daily tracking poll conducted in this election. 1 2 Tracking Methodology The tracking poll was conducted over 32 consecutive nights from October 1 through November 1, 2004. A tracking poll is a series of consecutive, one-night, stand-alone polls reported in a rolling multi- night average. Approximately 600 general population respondents were interviewed each night, rising to approximately 1,000 in each of the last five nights. In all, 21,265 interviews were conducted. A sample of telephone households in the continental United States was selected via random digit dialing. Each night’s sample included a mix of 60 percent “fresh,” or new numbers, and 40 percent previ- ously called numbers. Interviewers asked to speak to the household member age 18 or over at home who had the last birthday. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were conducted by TNS of Horsham, 1 ABC News and the Washington Post cooperated in data collection (con- ducted by TNS) then independently modeled, analyzed and reported the data. Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 111 PA. The cooperation rate across all waves was 54 percent and the response rate was 37 percent. 2 Each night’s data were weighted using demographic information on age, race, sex and education from the March 2003 Current Population Survey. Data were analyzed using a variety of likely voter models that represented different assumptions about the composition of the electorate and produced a range of turnout sce- narios. Party identification was used as a factor in likely voter modeling, as described below. 3 Vote Estimates ABC News’ practice is to develop a range of “likely voter” models, which may employ elements such as self-reported voter registration, intention to vote, attention to the race, past voting, age, respondents' knowledge of their polling places and political party identification. The level of voter turnout produced by these models is evaluated and differences across models are diagnosed when they occur. While ABC News’ likely voter modeling is intended to produce the best possible vote estimate, we reject the myth of pinpoint accuracy in pre-election polls. A good final poll, rigorously conducted and with accurate modeling, should come within a few percentage points of each candidate's actual support. Any more indicates a problem, but any closer, in our view, is the luck of the draw. Winning the horse-race lottery is not sufficient grounds for a substantive evalua- tion of the quality of any pre-election poll. 2 The cooperation rate is AAPOR’s CR3. The response rate is computed using AAPOR rate RR3: completed interviews / [(completed interviews + partial interviews) + (refusals + noncontacts + other) + e*(unknown households + unknown other)]. We set e at .20 based on estimates from previously published RDD telephone surveys with similar field period lengths (Keeter, Miller, Kohut, Groves and Presser (2000, p. 127)). 112 Daniel Merkle et al. 51% 49% 48% 48% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Actual Vote ABC Tracking Poll Bush Kerry (Nov. 2, 2004) (Oct. 29-31, n=2,193, LVs) Fig. 1. Final ABC Tracking Poll and Actual Vote The final vote estimate released by ABC News, based on data col- lected October 29-31, was within two points on the Bush percentage and exactly matched the Kerry percentage of actual vote (Figure 1). This is in line with previous ABC News pre-election polls since 1984 which have also closely estimated the final outcome. Since that time, the average absolute error on the major party candidates has been 1.5 percentage points. Vote preferences among subgroups also can indicate the reliability of pre-election survey estimates. While there’s no official record of the vote by population groups, we can compare subgroup estimates from ABC’s tracking poll with the National Election Pool’s much larger national Election Day exit poll. Each of these sources has different advantages and disadvantages. Exit polls are conducted with actual voters (including a small na- tional sample of absentee voters contacted by RDD telephone sur- vey), and the national exit poll is based on a very large sample size (12,219 in 2004). At the same time, exit polls are based on cluster samples and therefore have larger design effects than telephone sur- veys. Good-quality pre-election polls conducted via RDD are based Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 113 on modeled rather than actual voters, have smaller sample sizes, and almost no design effect. In overall vote, the ABC data were more accurate. The NEP national exit poll overestimated Kerry’s vote by three percentage points and underestimated the Bush vote by the same amount, before the data were weighted to the final election result (Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International, 2004). Among subgroups, there’s close correspondence between the final vote-weighted exit poll and ABC’s final pre-election poll (which is not weighted to actual vote) (Table 1). On average, estimates of Bush’s support differ by 2.7 per- centage points between the two polls. For Kerry’s support the aver- age difference is somewhat smaller, 2.0 points. It’s slightly larger for Bush because, as noted, the tracking poll underestimated his support by two points while estimating Kerry’s support exactly. The conclu- sions one would draw only differ for one of the subgroups, those who are 60 and older: Bush did slightly better among this group in the exit poll whereas Kerry did slightly better in the tracking poll. 4 Underrepresented Groups ABC News’ pre-election poll methodology – particularly its likely voter modeling – is reviewed and refined as necessary. Likely voter models prior to 2004 under-represented younger voters and did not explicitly include first-time voters. These groups didn’t vote in large enough numbers, or differently enough, for their under-representation to make a substantive difference in our estimates. The 2004 election campaign included substantial discussion of young and first-time voters (as well as cell-phone-only voters, who tend to be younger). ABC News moved to sharpen some of its models to increase the representation of these populations. This was done by a variety of measures, including incorporating a question asking whether respondents were first-time voters and adding a follow-up to the voter registration question. We also for the first time separately identified absentee voters; and for diagnostic purposes we added a 114 Daniel Merkle et al. Table 1. Candidate Support, ABC News Tracking Poll vs. NEP Exit Poll Bush Support Kerry Support Tracking Exit Abs. Tracking Exit Abs. poll poll Diff poll poll Diff All 49 51 2 48 48 0 Men 53 55 2 43 44 1 Women 45 48 3 52 51 1 Married men 58 60 2 38 39 1 Single men 42 45 3 55 53 2 Married women 53 55 2 45 44 1 Single women 34 37 3 63 62 1 Democrat 13 11 2 85 89 4 Republican 91 93 2 8 6 2 Ind/other 45 48 3 49 49 0 Liberal 14 13 1 84 85 1 Moderate 40 45 5 57 54 3 Conservative 78 84 6 19 15 4 18-29 40 45 5 57 54 3 30-44 53 53 0 43 46 3 45-59 52 51 1 45 48 3 60+ 46 54 8 50 46 4 H.S. or less 48 51 3 49 48 1 Some college 53 54 1 43 46 3 College grad 49 52 3 48 46 2 Post graduate 44 44 0 54 55 1 White 55 58 3 42 41 1 Black 10 11 1 85 88 3 Hispanic 41 44 3 56 53 3 Union househ. 36 40 4 60 59 1 Evangelical white Protestant 76 78 2 22 21 1 Note: Tracking Data Based on Likely Voters Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 115 question to the exit poll measuring cell-phone-only voters to see if their exclusion from the tracking sample significantly affected our pre-election estimate. It did not. The traditional registration question asks respondents if they’re reg- istered to vote at their present address. For those who said no, a fol- low-up was added in 2004 asking if they were currently registered at some other address. Eighty-one percent of adults said they were reg- istered at their present address; an additional four percent were reg- istered elsewhere. This small group would have been missed by the traditional question. (It’s important to note that 85 percent registra- tion overstates actual voter registration in this country by six per- centage points. 3 The point of the exercise in likely voter modeling, however, is not to accurately estimate the number of registered voters. That probably could be done quite precisely with a battery of specific registration questions. The purpose here, instead, is to model likely voters; self-asserted registration is simply a factor in that modeling process.) As expected, respondents who reported being registered at another address were significantly younger and more likely to be first-time voters (Table 2). At the same time, they were less politically en- gaged and much less likely to say they were certain to vote. The extra effort to include young and first-time voters improved the representation of these groups. In 1996 and 2000, 17 percent of voters in the national exit polls were ages 18-29. The ABC News tracking estimates were lower, 11 and nine percent respectively. In 2004, the exit poll estimate was again 17 percent but the final tracking poll estimate was closer, 16 percent. Also in 2004, first- time voters were 11 percent in the exit poll and eight percent in the final tracking poll. 3 Based on data collected by the Associated Press. 116 Daniel Merkle et al. Table 2. Registration of Voters Registered at present residence (n=12,835) Registered elsewhere (n=556) Men 48 46 Women 52 54 18-29 17 44 30-49 40 39 50-64 26 12 65+ 18 6 White 80 75 Nonwhite 20 25 Democrat 34 30 Republican 31 28 Independent 28 31 Liberal 18 21 Moderate 43 43 Conservative 34 33 Certain will vote/or already voted 90 58 Very closely following the 2004 election 57 33 First-time voter 10 21 Note: Distributions in Bold Are Significantly Different at p<.01 Using a Chi-Square Test. Based on Registered Voters 5 Party Identification The use of political party identification as a weighting factor in likely voter models is a subject of debate among opinion researchers (Pew Research Center, 2004a; Pew Research Center, 2004b; Zukin, 2004; Langer and Merkle, 2004). In 2000 (long before the debate reached its more recent pitch), after an extensive evaluation of the issue, ABC News began employing party ID as a factor in its tracking poll’s likely Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 117 voter modeling. We took this action on the basis of a modeling analy- sis we conducted after the 1996 election, in which we found that ap- plying a party ID factor would have brought our final pre-election poll results closer to the exit poll results for party ID in 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996 alike, and would have slightly improved our vote estimates in 1988, 1992 and 1996, with no change in 1984. After the 2000 election we presented a detailed analysis of that year’s data, including an examination of the effects of party ID as a factor in modeling (Langer and Merkle, 2001). It showed that party ID factoring in 2000 slightly improved the party ID distribution but had essentially no effect on the estimate of vote preference — no more than a single point on any given day in that 21-day tracking poll, and zero effect on our final estimate. Proponents of using party ID in likely voter modeling have noted the remarkable stability of party ID in exit polls conducted in presiden- tial elections from 1984 through 2000 (Figure 2): Democrats ac- counted for either 38 percent or 39 percent of voters, Republicans 35 percent and independents 26 percent or 27 percent. What made that stability even more impressive were the differing vote margins in these elections — Rep +18, Rep +8, Dem +6, Dem +9, and a tie. 38% 38% 38% 39% 39% 37% 35% 37% 35% 35% 35% 35% 26% 26% 26% 27% 26% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1984 (Rep +18) 1988 (Rep +7) 1992 (Dem +5) 1996 (Dem +8) 2000 (Tie) 2004 (Rep +2) Dem Rep Ind/Oth Fig. 2. Party ID by Election Year. Exit Polls 118 Daniel Merkle et al. Opponents of the practice note that party ID can and does change, and that polls measuring the dynamics of the race — rather than simply attempting to predict its outcome — need to measure and report this change, not suppress it. In fact, the 2004 exit poll did show a slight change in party ID for the first time in at least two decades (Figure 2). The Democratic percentage decreased by two points while the Republican percentage increased by the same amount. The share of independents has remained unchanged over the last 20 years. Some have suggested that the change in the Democratic and Repub- lican proportions in 2004 is evidence that using party ID as a weighting factor is wrongheaded (e.g., Pew Research Center, 2004b). The issue is best resolved by an examination of available data – and of the various approaches available. The traditional schools of thought on party ID weighting have been unforgiving. The first says that party ID is a volatile opinion meas- ure which makes it impossible to use as a weight. The second says that party ID is akin to a demographic, and, because of its impor- tance in political views, should – even must – serve as a weight. Both these positions, in our view, are unnecessarily absolutist. Green, Palmquist and Schickler’s (2002) comprehensive study of partisanship finds that party ID is very stable over time. They con- clude: “In terms of persistence over time, party identification finds a much closer parallel to other social identities, namely religion, eth- nicity, and social class” (p. 75). Part of their analysis is based on panel surveys which they use to study partisan stability at the indi- vidual level, after controlling for measurement error. Other survey researchers have used similar data to argue that party ID is unstable (e.g., Pew Research Center, 2004a). But these analyses ignore the implications of measurement error and therefore overstate the amount of true change. Green et al. (2002) also analyze aggregate data over time from Gallup, CBS News and the National Election Studies and find that Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 119 “the distribution of partisanship evolves slowly over time, both during and between election campaigns” (p.87) (see also Langer et al. 2004). ABC News does not use party ID as a factor in pre-election polls before tracking begins. These polls, done well in advance of Elec- tion Day, are not predictive, and do not seek to model actual turnout. Shifts in allegiance, when they do occur, often appear as consistent, multi-night, event-based changes rather than trendless, night-to- night variability. ABC News noted and reported, for example, shifts in party ID around the 2004 conventions — more Democratic self- identification after the Democratic National Convention, more Re- publican self-identification after that party's convention (Langer, 2004a; Langer, 2004b). Tracking polls are another animal. Conducted only in the final weeks of the campaign, their focus increasingly is not simply on a sampled population, but on a modeled population of likely voters. While they measure the election “if it were today,” an implied pre- dictive element seeps into these estimates as Election Day draws near, and the views of non-voters become increasingly irrelevant. These surveys must therefore sharpen their best estimate of actual likely voters, and not let the accuracy of their portrayal of the race fall victim to sampling variability or model-induced fluctuations. In previous tracking polls, we’ve observed large night-to-night movement in party ID that appears to represent trendless sampling variability rather than actual changes in partisan self-identification. This was again the case in 2004. As shown in Figure 3, the night-to-night party ID numbers fluctu- ated in what appears to be random movement. Over the course of a month of daily tracking, Democrats ranged from 28 to 40 percent of the sample, Republicans from 28 percent to 42 percent and inde- pendents from 22 percent to 33 percent. This mirrors the normal night-to-night variability in standard, multi-night ABC News polls. 120 Daniel Merkle et al. 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1 0 / 1 / 2 0 0 4 1 0 / 4 / 2 0 0 4 1 0 / 7 / 2 0 0 4 1 0 / 1 0 / 2 0 0 4 1 0 / 1 3 / 2 0 0 4 1 0 / 1 6 / 2 0 0 4 1 0 / 1 9 / 2 0 0 4 1 0 / 2 2 / 2 0 0 4 1 0 / 2 5 / 2 0 0 4 1 0 / 2 8 / 2 0 0 4 1 0 / 3 1 / 2 0 0 4 Dem Rep Ind Fig. 3. Party ID by Wave. ABC News Tracking Poll (Likely Voters) Those who denounce party weighting may point to this as evidence of large opinion changes in party ID. These are large shifts, but are they real? To test this notion, we computed 31 wave-to-wave change scores for the three party ID response categories. Only seven of the 93 comparisons were statistically significant at the 95 percent confi- dence level, scarcely different than the five we’d expect to see based on chance alone. Similarly, only one of the 93 wave changes was significant at the 99 percent confidence level, exactly what would be expected by chance. This variability is consistent with previous ABC News tracking polls. Table 3 shows the ranges and standard deviations in party ID for ABC News tracking polls from the last three elections. 4 Each shows fairly wide ranges in the party ID numbers. The standard deviations vary 4 The number of nights of tracking varied for each election with a mini- mum of 21 nights. Therefore, these comparisons are based on the last 21 nights of tracking for each year. Samples sizes were larger for waves just before the election. For this analysis, these waves were subsampled so the sample sizes were in line with earlier waves. Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 121 Table 3. Wave by Wave Party ID Estimates, 1996-2004 Democrat Republican Independent SD Range SD Range SD Range 1996 2.75 9.8 2.33 9.7 2.74 10.5 2000 2.91 10.9 2.76 10.2 3.09 11.3 2004 2.94 10.6 2.32 8.7 1.98 8.0 Levene Stat: .051, n.s. .417, n.s. 1.59, n.s. Note: Based on Likely Voters somewhat by year, but none of these differences are statistically sig- nificant using the Levene test for homogeneity of variance. In 2004 there was significantly more volatility in the Republican percentages in the first half of tracking than in the second (Table 4). During this time period, from September 30 through October 13, there were four debates, three presidential and one vice-presidential. The standard deviation for the Republican percentage in waves one through 16 was 14.7. It was only 5.1 in waves 17 through 32. There was also more variability in the independent percentages in the first half, although the difference was not statistically significant using the Levene test. The Democratic variability did not differ between the two halves. Table 4. Wave by Wave Party ID Estimates, 2004 Democrat Republican Independent SD Range SD Range SD Range Waves 1-16 2.89 9.5 3.84 14.7 3.09 11.0 Waves 17-32 2.98 9.3 1.68 5.1 2.18 7.5 Levene Stat: .023, n.s. 4.42, p<.05 2.10, n.s. Note: Based on Likely Voters 122 Daniel Merkle et al. Erikson, Panagopoulos, and Wlezien (2004) reported that the Gallup likely voter model accentuated the random variability in party ID. 5 Variability of this nature affects portrayals of the race, given the very high correlation between party ID and vote preference. The question is whether surveys are measuring actual changes in opin- ion, or instead are reporting who's moving into and out of their likely voter models; and, if the latter, whether such movement is real, or an artifact of the model. Claims that this movement is mean- ingful seem to be contradicted by its trendless variability as well as by the difference in party ID variability among registered and likely voters (Erikson et al., 2004). While random movement in party composition can distort a poll’s horse-race estimates, it’s also true that actual change can occur. ABC News, therefore, in 2000 created a compromise position on party weighting that falls between the two traditional schools of thought: We compute an average of party ID as measured in the nightly tracking poll, and party ID as measured in recent presidential election exit polls. This averaging approach allows us to pick up real movement in party ID, if and when it occurs, while constraining random variability. It reflects our conclusion that, on one hand, the stability in party ID in recent elections is persuasive, but not neces- sarily fully predictive; and, on the other, that some variability in party ID in tracking polls may be real, but that it also can reflect sampling or modeling variability, rather than true movement in voter attitudes. What is the effect of this modeling? Figure 4 shows the 2004 track- ing poll vote estimates weighted two ways: 1) Using the standard demographic weighting for age, race, sex and education based on Census data; 2) Using the demographic weighting as well as the party 5 Also the wording of the party ID question can influence the variability of responses (Green et al., 2002). Gallup’s wording asks for party ID „as of today” which results in more variability than questions, such as ABC News’, which ask respondents how they usually think of themselves, „generally speaking.” Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 123 35 40 45 50 55 60 0 3 . 1 0 . 2 0 0 4 0 6 . 1 0 . 2 0 0 4 0 9 . 1 0 . 2 0 0 4 1 2 . 1 0 . 2 0 0 4 1 5 . 1 0 . 2 0 0 4 1 8 . 1 0 . 2 0 0 4 2 1 . 1 0 . 2 0 0 4 2 4 . 1 0 . 2 0 0 4 2 7 . 1 0 . 2 0 0 4 3 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 0 4 Bush-Census Kerry-Census Bush-Party Kerry-Party Fig. 4. Vote over Time. ABC News Tracking Poll (Three-Night Rolling Average, Likely Voters) factoring just described. Vote estimates changed by no more than two points as a result of the party weighting across the three-night rolling averages and, on average, Bush and Kerry’s support changed by less than a single percentage point. In the final estimate reported by ABC News, party weighting did not change the vote estimates at all (Figure 5). 6 As noted, the party factoring in 2000 didn’t change vote estimates by more than one point. Party factoring had slightly more of an im- pact in 2004 because of the longer field period and the greater vari- ability in party ID during the early part of tracking, during the time of the debates. Looking just at the final 19 estimates from the three-night rolling averages in 2004 (to match the number in 2000) we find that the vote didn’t change by more than a point as a result of party factoring 6 ABC’s final release was based on data collected October 29-31. Track- ing continued through November 1. For the final three waves of tracking (October 30-November 1), party weighting also did not change the vote estimates. 124 Daniel Merkle et al. 49% 49% 48% 48% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Census Weighting Party Weighting Bush Kerry (n=2,193, LVs) Fig. 5. Vote by Type of Weighting. Final ABC Tracking Poll (10/29-10/31) in 2004, the same as in 2000. In addition, the average amount of change across the three-night rolling averages was similar in both elections across this comparable time period. In 2004, the average change was .48 of a percentage point for Bush and .68 for Kerry. 7 In 2000 it was .45 for Bush and .42 for Gore. The reason party factoring did not change the final vote estimates in 2004 was because the final Democratic-Republican split in the track- ing poll was very close to previous exit polls (and the 2004 exit poll), and the party factoring changed it only minimally (Figure 6). Independents were somewhat overestimated in the tracking poll compared with the exit poll. In six of the past seven presidential elections, independents have been 26 percent of voters (in the sev- enth election it was 27 percent). The final tracking estimate using Census weighting had independents at 33 percent. With party factor- ing, independents were adjusted to 29 percent of the sample. It’s noteworthy that party factoring improved the tracking poll’s party ID distribution even though it used an exit poll estimate for party from prior years that was slightly different than the actual 2004 exit poll distribution. 7 The averages are based on the absolute value of the differences. Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 125 37% 34% 37% 37% 32% 34% 26% 33% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% NEP Exit Poll Census Weighting Party Weighting Dem Rep Ind/Oth (n=2,193, LVs) (n=2,193, LVs) (n=12,219) Fig. 6. Party ID. Exit Poll vs. Final ABC Tracking Poll Some critics of using party ID from exit polls in likely voter model- ing point out that it's the equivalent of weighting a poll to a poll, which may increase sampling error. It still, however, may improve the estimates. Exit polls are based on much larger sample sizes than tracking polls — at least 12,000 voters in each election since 1992— with correspondingly low margins of sampling error, of one percent- age point or less. It’s also possible to combine the state exit polls to get a national estimate with even lower sampling error. For 2004, this cross-survey analysis, based on 73,751 interviews, yields the exact same estimate of party ID as the national exit poll. Exit polls also are based on samples of actual voters rather than likely voter estimates. And they're post-stratified to actual vote, which is highly correlated with party ID. All these increase the reliability of exit poll estimates. Opponents of using party ID in modeling also note that it introduces judgment into the process. However, judgment is required across all components of likely voter modeling — what elements to include, how to compute them, what turnout to anticipate. In the end, the party ID weighting improved the final estimate of party ID but had no impact on the final vote estimates in 2004 and only a marginal 126 Daniel Merkle et al. impact on estimates during the course of tracking (see also Langer and Merkle, 2001). Why bother? To make our likely voter modeling as precise as possible, even if such efforts ultimately don’t affect the bottom line. Such also was the case with a variety of more tradi- tional best practices, as discussed below. 6 Traditional Methodological Considerations 8 In addition to the challenges of polling for an unknown population, likely voters, pre-election polls must also deal with more traditional methodological concerns common to all polls. These include con- cerns about possible day-of-week effects, noncontacted numbers and the sampling frame. Day of Week In recent elections, some critics have suggested that there are parti- san biases in Friday-Saturday sampling and that pre-election polling should not be conducted on these nights. To explore this contention we compared the partisan make-up of the tracking samples for Sun- days through Thursdays with Fridays and Saturdays. As seen in Fig- ures 7 and 8 there is no difference for party ID or the vote. This is consistent with results we reported based on the 1996 and 2000 tracking polls (Langer and Merkle, 2001). Type of Sample Each wave in tracking is a stand-alone sample and can be considered an independent one-night poll, with minimal ability to make repeated callbacks. One way to address concerns about potential differences 8 The analyses in this section are based on all available tracking data. Therefore, for party ID the results are based on the general population and for vote the base is registered voters. Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 127 33% 32% 30% 30% 27% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Sun-Thur Fri-Sat Dem Rep Ind (n=14,000) (n=6,597) General population; Chi-Square=5.03, df=3, p=n.s. Fig. 7. Party ID by Day of Week. ABC News Tracking Poll 49% 48% 46% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Sun-Thur Fri-Sat Bush Kerry (n=12,022) (n=5,658) Registered voters; Chi-Square=.23, df=2, p=n.s. Fig. 8. Vote by Day of Week. ABC News Tracking Poll 128 Daniel Merkle et al. between easy and hard-to-reach respondents is to incorporate “live,” or previously dialed, sample, with the fresh sample for each night of tracking. In 2004, each wave included 60 percent fresh numbers and 40 percent previously dialed numbers for which interviews were not completed. This was changed from a 70/30 percent fresh/live mix in 2000 to approximate more closely the call distributions in ABC News’ stan- dard multi-night polls. The change reduced the number of completes that were based on one dialing. In 2004 tracking, 50 percent of in- terviews were complete on the first call, down from about two-thirds in 2000. This was closer to what’s obtained in ABC’s standard multi-night polls, which averaged 42 percent of completes on the first call in 2004. Figures 9 and 10 show the party ID and vote distributions for live and fresh samples. For both variables, there is not a significant dif- ference between estimates of these two types of samples. In 2004, as was the case in 2000, this best-practice approach had no discernable effect on our estimates. 33% 32% 30% 30% 27% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Fresh Sample Live Sample Dem Rep Ind (n=14,576) (n=6,021) General population; Chi-Square=4.25, df=3, p=n.s. Fig. 9. Party ID by Sample Type. ABC News Tracking Poll Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 129 48% 50% 46% 45% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Fresh Sample Live Sample Bush Kerry (n=12,474) (n=5,206) Registered voters; Chi-Square=3.03, df=2, p=n.s. Fig. 10. Vote by Sample Type. ABC News Tracking Poll 34% 32% 33% 31% 30% 30% 30% 27% 29% 28% 30% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% One Two Three Four+ Dem Rep Ind (n=10,256) (n=5,380) (n=3,041) (n=1,920) General population; Chi-Square=22.93, df=9, p<.01 Fig. 11. Party ID by Number of Call Attempts. ABC News Tracking Poll 130 Daniel Merkle et al. 48% 48% 50% 49% 45% 45% 45% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% One Two Three Four+ Bush Kerry (n=8,810) (n=4,629) (n=2,598) (n=1,643) Registered voters; Chi-Square=9.85, df=6, p=n.s. Fig. 12. Vote by Number of Call Attempts. ABC News Tracking Poll Callbacks Another way to look at contactability is to consider the number of calls it takes to complete an interview. The relationship between the number of calls and party ID is statistically significant (Chi-Square= 22.93, p<.01). Respondents interviewed after four or more attempts are slightly less likely to call themselves Democrats and slightly more likely to say they’re independents (Figure 11). However, these differ- ences are not large and are not practically significant. Figure 12 shows no difference in vote estimates by the number of calls. These findings are consistent with results from the 2000 tracking poll (Langer and Merkle, 2001) as well as research on surveys with longer field periods and a greater number of callbacks which show little or no impact of multiple callbacks on substantive survey esti- mates (e.g., Merkle, Bauman and Lavrakas, 1993). Listed vs. Unlisted Another polling issue that periodically surfaces relates to the sam- pling frame. While most telephone pollsters use random digit dial- Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 131 33% 34% 31% 28% 28% 28% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Listed Unlisted Dem Rep Ind (n=11,343) (n=8,401) General population; Chi-Square=17.72, df=3, p<.01 Fig. 13. Party by Listed/Unlisted. ABC News Tracking Poll 50% 46% 45% 48% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Listed Unlisted Bush Kerry (n=9,879) (n=7,031) Registered voters; Chi-Square=21.50, df=2, p<.01 Fig. 14. Vote by Listed/Unlisted. ABC News Tracking Poll 132 Daniel Merkle et al. ing, some advocate listed samples. Survey methodologists typically advise against using listed samples of the general population because of the large noncoverage (Lavrakas, 1993). There have been very few studies that have systematically studied this issue (Guterbock, 2003). Champions of the use of listed samples have yet to document the reliability of the approach. Each phone number in the 2004 tracking poll was checked against a database of listed numbers and flagged as either listed or unlisted. For party ID, there’s a statistically significant difference between listed and unlisted numbers (Chi-Square=17.72, p<.01), although the difference is not large (Figure 13). Those with listed numbers are slightly more likely to call themselves Republicans. There’s also a significant difference in the vote question (Chi-Square=21.50, p<.01). Across tracking, among registered voters, listed numbers show Bush over Kerry by five points, whereas the unlisted numbers show Kerry +2. (Figure 14). 7 Conclusion This paper explores the impact of methodological factors on tracking poll estimates. An assumption underlying critiques of using party ID as a weighting factor is that it biases the data, especially when the actual partisan distribution differs from previous elections. The data presented here show that our party weighting procedure had a mini- mal impact on the data over the course of tracking and, as in 2000, didn’t change our final vote estimates whatsoever. However, it im- proved our estimate of party ID among actual voters as reflected in the exit poll, as it did in 2000 and would have in 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996 alike. In that sense it added precision, however slightly, to our likely voter modeling. Another criticism of the media tracking polls is that interviewing on Fridays and Saturdays produces biased results. There’s no evidence of such a bias. Data from ABC’s 2004 tracking poll, as well as from 1996 and 2000, show that no partisan bias is introduced by inter- Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 133 viewing on the weekend. Likewise, attempts to interview those who are relatively hard to contact by incorporating live numbers into the sample and conducting callbacks did not meaningfully affect esti- mates. We did observe some partisan differences for listed and unlisted numbers; more research is warranted on the potential biases in listed samples. In all, the findings of this paper underscore the robustness of pre- election polling. For the most part, the methodological factors exam- ined here did not greatly affect the data. Nonetheless, given the im- portance of pre-election polls in campaign news coverage, it’s in- cumbent on pre-election pollsters to employ the best methodologies possible and continuously evaluate their effectiveness. Media polling in the United States is conducted under very ambi- tious time constraints, requiring accelerated data collection and re- porting deadlines. The short field periods, in particular, force relaxa- tion or modification of some long-held, conventional best-practice approaches, such as extended callbacks and concerted refusal con- versions. While further monitoring is warranted, this review offers reassurance that easing or modifying the rigid application of these practices has little impact on results. References Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International (2004). “Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004.” January 19. 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Last accessed: http://www.aapor.org/pdfs/var- source.pdf The Presidential Elections in France 2007 – The Role of Opinion Polls Brice Teinturier Abstract The French presidential election of 2007 marks a turning point in the country’s Presidential election campaigns. Public opinion, measur- ing it and disseminating opinion poll results play a decisive and so far un- matched role in the selection of candidates. The polls also enabled Nicolas Sarkozy to put in place the foundations of a winning strategy. During the campaign proper, many different tools were also used. Lastly, opinion polls are becoming just as much tools of communication and issues of de- bate as instruments for understanding public opinion and responding to the public’s expectations. 1 Background On 22 August 1962, Lieutenant-Colonel Bastien Thiry, a supporter of French Algeria, tried to assassinate General de Gaulle at a place called Petit Clamart, in the hope of blocking the Algerian independ- ence process. De Gaulle’s car was riddled with bullets but the Gen- eral was safe and sound. This event however had a major conse- quence: De Gaulle realised that he had had a personal historical legitimacy since 18 June 1940 and a central role in the French Resis- tance that no other French politician had. To prevent France falling back into a party system on his death, like under the IV Republic, he decided to propose by referendum that the French President of the Republic be thenceforth elected by direct universal suffrage. This would be the constitutional reform of 1962, broadly approved by the 136 Brice Teinturier French, which not only marked a change of system but also pushed French democracy into the era of mass media and opinion polls: the moment the electorate was constituted by all French people; public opinion became a major issue, which needed to be understood, charmed and influenced. The first presidential election by universal suffrage in 1965 saw two main players emerge: De Gaulle and Mit- terrand, but also television and opinion polls, in particular those by SOFRES and IFOP. 42 years later, France is experiencing its 8 th presidential election by direct universal suffrage and an electoral campaign without precedent. What are its main ingredients and what is the role of opinion polls? 2 A Long Campaign: Short-Listing of Candidates and the Role of Opinion Polls The role of opinion polls in short-listing candidates is not new in itself. Already, in 1995, during the competition at the heart of the right between Edouard Balladur and Jacques Chirac, opinion polls played a role going beyond that of a simple tool for finding out and understanding public opinion: they had become a political resource enabling Edouard Balladur to put pressure on deputies and achieve mass rallying in favour of his candidacy in the presidential election, such was the lead of the then Prime Minister over the President of the RPR 1 – Jacques Chirac did not however withdraw and the elec- tion campaign turned around. Likewise, in 1980, the opinion polls were used by Michel Rocard’s supporters who were looking to impose their candidate against Fran- çois Mitterrand, asserting his modernity and greater ability to win over the middle classes. However, despite these precedents, the 2007 presidential elections mark a turning point in the use of opinion polls. Indeed, since Jacques Chirac, the President in office, is not standing, this election, for the 1 Rassemblement pour la République. The Presidential Elections in France 2007 137 first time in 19 years, is not being held in the wake of cohabitation and is not pitting a Prime Minister against an incumbent President. Also, and again for the first time since 1969, no potential candidate from within the major political organisations, and there are many, has ever been a candidate in a presidential election before. This dual singularity weakens therefore in principle the candidates’ legitimacy: on the right, from the UMP 2 , Nicolas Sarkozy, Dominique de Ville- pin, Michel Alliot Marie, Jean-Louis Borloo and Jean-Pierre Raffarin can legitimately consider standing; on the left, from the Socialist Party, Laurent Fabius, Ségolène Royal, Dominique Strauss-Khan, François Hollande, Jack Lang, Martine Aubry and Bertrand Delanoë. Add to this the result of the first round of the 2002 presidential elec- tions, which everyone has in mind: Lionel Jospin’s ousting occurred for a variety of reasons, but which included the historic record num- ber of candidates (16) and the dispersion of votes on the left unde- niably played a part. For all these reasons, the 2007 election campaign will be preceded by a very long pre-campaign period for selecting the Socialist Party’s candidate and the UMP candidate. Two elements character- ise this process: its length, as it began at the end of 2005, and its na- ture: for the first time, the support of public opinion, and therefore the measuring of it, take precedence over other political resources, like for example management of the Party or the offices previously held by the candidates. From this point of view, 2007 does indeed mark a historic turning point and maybe irreversible in the history of French election campaigns. The Socialist Party case is a perfect ex- ample of this internal competition within the Socialist Party: an open competition and the decisive weight of public opinion. The media have been interested in the Socialist Party’s internal con- test since 2005. TNS Sofres did several waves of polls for Figaro Magazine and the TV channel France 5, which very quickly revealed the ascendancy of Ségolène Royal in public opinion. 2 Union pour un Mouvement Populaire. 138 Brice Teinturier Table 1. Support for Candidacy Left sympathisers December 2005 February 2006 May 2006 September 2006 November 2006 Ségolène Royal 69% 75% 78% 82% 78% Dominique Strauss- Kahn 41% 44% 40% 41% 54% Laurent Fabius 25% 25% 25% 22% 27% Lionel Jospin 50% 43% 45% 40% Not tested Jack Lang 53% 48% 53% 46% Not tested François Hollande 44% 42% 41% 39% Not tested François Bayrou 39% 40% 42% 42% 49% “Objectif 2007” Polls TNS Sofres / LE FIGARO MAGAZINE and FRANCE 5 From May 2006, i.e. over a year before the elections, TNS Sofres put in place a second measure, highly visible since it was done for the main French daily, Le Figaro, the leading radio station, RTL, and the largest 24-hr news channel, LCI. This measure also highlighted Ségolène Royal’s supremacy over her competitors in public opinion, both in terms of image and election potential. There were some basic reasons for this: the most obvious was that the demand for change was sweeping the country and it played greatly in Ségolène Royal’s favour. Thus, Laurent Fabius, even though a former Prime Minister and one of the great leaders of the Socialist Party, embodied the past and a way of doing politics that the French had totally rejected. His battle in favour of the No to the European Constitutional Treaty also reinforced a latent image of an opportunistic and insincere politician. Conversely, and this is the other reason, in addition to embodying change, Ségolène Royal responds to a demand for togetherness and co production in a project bringing the country together, which is very apparent in the country and on the left. She is therefore in step with French public opinion, particularly with left sympathisers. The opinion polls bear this out. And they strengthen her position. On the one hand, Jack Lang is throwing in the towel and not standing; Fran- The Presidential Elections in France 2007 139 çois Hollande too, even though he is the Socialist Party’s First Sec- retary. On the other hand, at the end of a long internal campaign, Socialist Party’s activists are voting in considerable numbers in her favour to wear the Party’s colours at the presidential election, giving Laurent Fabius and Dominique Strauss Kahn only 40% of their vote. The weight of public opinion has therefore been decisive: the candi- date of the ‘democracy of opinion’ beat the candidates of the party. As for the opinion polls, they did not create the Royal phenomenon, but they undeniably strengthened it. By voting, the activists voted not only for someone who matched more their aspirations, but also for the candidate whom opinion polls indicated was the most able to beat Nicolas Sarkozy. We shall never know if in the end, Laurent Fabius or Dominique Strauss-Kahn might have done better than Ségolène Royal against Nicolas Sarkozy. In spite of all the candi- Table 2. Change in Voting Intentions in the First Round of the Presidential Elections (Hypothesis with S. Royal / N. Sarkozy) Base: out of 100 votes cast 17-18 May 06 14-15 June 06 17 July 06 4-5 Sep. 06 4-5 Oct. 06 12-13 Oct. 06 8-9 Nov.06 Arlette Laguiller 3.5 3.5 4 3 3 3 2.5 Olivier Besancenot 5 6 4 3.5 5 4 4 Marie-George Buffet 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 Ségolène Royal 30 32 32 34 29.5 34 34 Dominique Voynet 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 2 1 1.5 François Bayrou 8 8 6 7 7 7 7 Nicolas Sarkozy 34 31 35 36 38 36 34 Philippe de Villiers 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 Jean-Marie Le Pen 10 12.5 11.5 10 9.5 11 13 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Did not express voting intention 16 % 14 % 21 % 18 % 21 % 20 % 19 % “Presidential Elections Barometer” TNS Sofres / UNILOG for RTL / Le Figaro / LCI 140 Brice Teinturier Table 3. Voting Intentions in the First Round of the Presidential Elections (Hypotheses with S. Royal / L. Jospin / L. Fabius / D. Strauss-Kahn / F. Hol- lande / J. Lang) Royal Jospin Fabius Strauss- Kahn Hol- lande Lang Arlette Laguiller 3 4 5 4 5 4.5 Olivier Besancenot 3.5 5.5 7 5.5 6.5 5.5 Marie-George Buffet 3 4 5 4.5 4 4 Socialist Party Candidate 34 23 13 20 20 23 Dominique Voynet 1.5 4 5.5 4 3.5 3.5 François Bayrou 7 9 11 10 9.5 9 Nicolas Sarkozy 36 37 40 38 38 37 Philippe de Villiers 2 2 2 3 2 2.5 Jean-Marie Le Pen 10 11.5 11.5 11 11.5 11 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % “Presidential Elections Barometer” TNS Sofres / UNILOG, Wave 5, for RTL / Le Figaro / LCI Done on 4 and 5 September 2006 date’s campaign weaknesses and mistakes, the author greatly doubts it. But what is certain is that this advantage in the opinion polls over Nicolas Sarkozy also played a role in the candidate nomination by Socialist Party’s activists. Internal Competition on the Right: A Quieter Competition but Just as Fierce and Equally Dominated by Opinion Poll Issues In 2005 and even at the start of 2006, things were far from being in Nicolas Sarkozy’s favour; on the one hand, a number of prominent individuals were in a position to claim the role of UMP candidate in the presidential election – including Jacques Chirac; on the other hand, fierce competition opposed Nicolas Sarkozy to the Prime Min- The Presidential Elections in France 2007 141 ister in office, Dominique de Villepin, who asserted himself as the only true great rival to the Minister of the Interior. But, yet again, even though Nicolas Sarkozy had the will and political skill to seize the party by becoming President of the UMP and by refusing to sub- mit to Jacques Chirac’s order to choose between this post and gov- ernment participation, it was public opinion again which made a dif- ference: after the failure of the “First Employment Contract” (CPE), which Dominique de Villepin tried to impose, the Prime Minister’s dynamic in public opinion stopped dead: his popularity slumped, whereas that of Nicolas Sarkozy was maintained as the most popular politician of the right throughout the period. At the end of 2006, all the polls showed that the President of the UMP was crushing his ri- vals. In such a context of public opinion, the Prime Minister simply could not stand as a candidate against Nicolas Sarkozy; the internal competition organised within the UMP then became a sham which fooled no-one: Nicolas Sarkozy was the only candidate possible, the only one who literally imposed himself on public opinion and on his political family. 2007 did indeed mark a turning point in French presidential election campaigns, with exaggerated importance placed on public opinion, its measurement, and also its publication in the candidate selection process. This phenomenon explains the very large number of polls carried out and published, way above that of previous campaigns. Table 4. Support for Candidacy Right sympathisers December 2005 February 2006 May 2006 September 2006 November 2006 Nicolas Sarkozy 76% 85% 86% 89% 82% Dominique de Villepin 72% 69% 43% 40% 44% François Bayrou 44% 49% 44% 37% 46% Jean-Marie Le Pen 24% 17% 26% 32% 24% Philippe de Villiers 29% 31% 36% 31% 28% “Objectif 2007” Polls TNS Sofres / LE FIGARO MAGAZINE and FRANCE 5 142 Brice Teinturier Table 5. Voting Intentions in the First Round of the Presidential Elections (Hypotheses with N. Sarkozy / D. de Villepin / M. Alliot-Marie) Base: out of 100 votes cast Nicolas Sarkozy Dominique De Villepin Michèle Alliot-Marie Arlette Laguiller 3 3 3.5 Olivier Besancenot 4 5 5 Marie-George Buffet 2 2 2 Ségolène Royal 34 39 40 Dominique Voynet 1 3 2.5 François Bayrou 7 11 10 UMP Candidate 36 18 17 Philippe de Villiers 2 5 5.5 Jean-Marie Le Pen 11 14 14.5 100 % 100 % 100 % Did not express voting intention 20 % 20 % 20 % “Presidential Elections Barometer” TNS Sofres / UNILOG, Wave 7, for RTL / Le Figaro / LCI Done on 12 and 13 October 2006 3 Nicolas Sarkozy’s Victory: The Foundations Nicolas Sarkozy’s victory is broad and unappealing: by winning over 30% of votes cast in the first round, the UMP candidate offered his political family a score that Jacques Chirac never achieved. By win- ning 53% of votes cast in the second round, he strengthened this vic- tory, which was all the more remarkable as the right had been in power since 2002 and Nicolas Sarkozy had himself been in the Government for 5 years. This victory was the result of a triple reconstruction. The Ideological Reconstruction of the Right Since the end of the 90s, the French right in general and Nicolas Sarkozy in particular have been thinking about the ideological cor- The Presidential Elections in France 2007 143 pus of their political family. At the time of the dissolution of 1997 and of a very particular political context, the left won the legislative elections with as their symbolic measure the 35-hour week and youth employment. Even though the right won again in 2002, both in the presidential and legislative elections, it was during these years that the ideological corpus of the right was revisited. It focused on a series of points and values which the opinion polls, both quantitative and qualitative, had helped clearly identify: • The demand for order and authority: insecurity was at the heart of the 2002 presidential campaign and Jacques Chirac won mainly thanks to this theme and the feeling that the left did not understand this issue to its full extent or that it was not capable of responding to it. But the demand for order and authority went further than simply the issue of insecurity, and spanned the whole of French society; the feeling that things were no longer in their place, that children no longer re- spected their parents or teachers, that citizens were abusing their social rights to the detriment of other citizens, that pub- lic space was no longer being respected as public space where one has not only rights but obligations, this feeling was very strong amongst right sympathisers and also spread to the left and the working classes. • The rehabilitation of labour: Lionel Jospin’s Government put in place the 35-hour week. But after a few years, the French people were much divided in their opinion of it: the 35-hour week had in effect led to a significant wage restraint and a drop in purchasing power which affected the working classes in particular. These were also accompanied by an in- tensification of work and an increasing search for higher pro- ductivity. The right would then cleverly oppose such a meas- ure and, without challenging it head-on, limit its effects. Above all, for over 5 years it would develop a discourse of “rehabilitation of the value of labour”: “Work more and earn more” would be one of the great slogans of Nicolas Sarkozy’s campaign. He had the advantage of opening up perspectives, 144 Brice Teinturier responding to the demand to increase purchasing power and to confine the left to a form of archaism and naivety in the face of the new issues arising from globalisation. Likewise, the UMP candidate would develop a new discourse on the unemployed in step with a more individualistic public opin- ion: the latter could no longer refuse more than twice a job “in accordance with their qualifications” and continue to draw unemployment benefit. • The rise in individual values: France has not escaped the slow but profound and continuous movement of individualisation of attitudes and behaviour. The primacy of the individual would then also be at the heart of Nicolas Sarkozy’s project even though, in order not to lay himself open to attack, it was framed in a discourse on national solidarity. The issue of challenging “school mapping” (carte scolaire) is a perfect example of this: in the French system, parents are obliged to send their children to a school in their local area or, if they do not, to opt for a pri- vate fee-paying school. The aim of this measure is to encourage social intermixing and equal opportunities. But this system is on the one hand becoming more and more circumvented by parents looking, in underprivileged areas, for schools with less children of immigrant background, and on the other criticised as support- ing inequality. By developing a discourse based on “the right of each parent to choose the school he/she wants for his/her child”, Nicolas Sarkozy is in reality quite in step with this increase in individual rights and demands, without even mentioning the problem of immigration underlying this issue. • The impact of globalisation and rejection of liberalism: in France, globalisation is seen more as a threat than an opportu- nity. For historical reasons, the country also has a stubborn at- titude towards a discourse too focused on liberalism: the tradi- tion of an interventionist and protective State, borne by several centuries of history, still thrives, including on the right. Nico- las Sarkozy knew this. That is why his economic proposals would be sufficiently “catch-all” so as never to allow the left to pigeonhole him as a liberal candidate. Thus he conveyed the The Presidential Elections in France 2007 145 feeling of wanting and being able to profoundly reform the country – and the expectation of change, or even of a break, is considerable – by uniting the movement, rather liberal meas- ures (such as the non-replacement of one in every two retiring civil servants) and ongoing economic interventionism in the purest De Gaulle-Pompidou tradition! Respect for others and authority, rehabilitation of labour, order, vol- untarism, success, taking account of the individual, extolling duties as well as rights would comprise the fabric of the ideological dis- course of the right from the year 2000 throughout the UMP candi- date’s campaign. This ideological reconstruction had the merit of being real, one step ahead, legible and coherent. It was done openly, with the UMP staging “UMP conventions” on a whole series of ma- jor themes. TNS Sofres would also produce studies specific to each of these conventions, providing the candidate with extremely useful material. This ideological reconstruction would fundamentally set him apart from Ségolène Royal: she had a feeling for most of the aforemen- tioned elements, but the Socialist Party had difficulty taking them into account and articulating increasing individual values with an ideological basis marked by a logic of community, solidarity and equality. The socialist candidate would continuously convey the feeling of being at odds with her own party and of not having overall political cohesion, only sound intuitions. 4 Reshaping Political Support A major element of French political life was put in place in 2002: the constitution of a single major party of the right, the UMP, whose vocation was to end the competition between the Gaullists (the RPR) and the centre right (the UDF). Three-quarters of the operation would be achieved. Of course, the UDF, in the person of François Bayrou, is resisting and surviving as a political organisation. But it is at the price of a major drain of many of its leaders and major elected 146 Brice Teinturier representatives, who are joining the UMP and bringing to it the sup- port of the centrist and liberal sensibility. The UDF’s political space is shrinking dangerously. François Bayrou has understood this and is repositioning it, no longer at the centre right, but at the centre, look- ing to attract both those disappointed with the Socialist Party and a right sensibility irritated by Nicolas Sarkozy. But despite his efforts, a major party of the right has well and truly been born: it does not represent the whole of the right, but almost. But, Nicolas Sarkozy has understood the importance of controlling such a support ma- chine. He took hold of the presidency, bundled Jacques Chirac aside and imposed himself as uncontested leader. His rivals would have no option but to mount a public opinion strategy to counter him. But, as we have said, Nicolas Sarkozy would beat Dominique de Villepin at this game. 5 Strategic Break Although it was in his grasp, the UMP was not originally of Nicolas Sarkozy’s making. But the UMP President would introduce a funda- mental break in strategy away from Jacques Chirac, an initiative which was all his own work: he made the winning back of the work- ing classes in general and of Front National voters in particular a cen- tral objective of his politics and his campaign, and he said it loud and clear. For 25 years, Jean-Marie Le Pen had been a thorn in the right’s foot. He regularly won around 15% of the vote and, in 2002, with 17%, forced his way into the second round. Jacques Chirac tried to ostracise Jean-Marie Le Pen but without success. He had also been very careful not to adopt any of his themes. Nicolas Sarkozy would break with this practice and give himself the means, again guided by opinion polls, to win back. The recipe had 3 main ingredients: • Continuous condemnation of all xenophobia in order to posi- tion himself clearly in the republican camp and avoid any criticism from the left. The Presidential Elections in France 2007 147 • Demonstration/staging of continuous action: the demand for action is high in all electorates, but more so in the FN. Nicolas Sarkozy did not stop showing how much, at the Ministry of the Interior, he was part of the action and the results culture. “The energy of the boss” was obvious and it pleased this working-class electorate … The fight against insecurity and youth delinquency also had great potential. • Use of the immigration theme: this is the big taboo in French political life and plays into the Front National’s hands. Its electorate, which in reality is deeply xenophobic, is obsessed by immigration. Nicolas Sarkozy would lift this taboo, speak about immigration, raise the problems it could pose to French society and propose measures while appearing to remain in the republican camp. He was therefore sending out a whole series of signals, explicit and implicit, to Front National voters, stop- ping them feeling guilty and at the same time, convincing them to opt for the “Sarkozy option”, anchored in action, rather than for the “Le Pen option”, reduced to a simple and sterile protest. In so doing, the UMP leader was taking an enormous risk, that, some say, of playing into Le Pen’s hands and strengthening him by legitimising his arguments. The polls would show the opposite: an ever larger share of FN sympathisers was attracted by N. Sarkozy and around 22% of those who voted for Le Pen in 2002 declared that they wanted to vote for him. On 22 April, this was actually the case. For the first time in over 20 years, Le Pen won less than 11% of the vote in the presidential elections. This was a stinging de- feat for the FN leader. At the following legislative elections, the FN was nearly annihilated and dropped below 5%. The Willingness to Embody Change Ideological reconstruction, reshaping political support, strategy for winning over Front National voters: to these 3 pillars Nicolas Sarkozy would add a fourth: embody change. This would be his obsession: he had been in the Government for 5 years and knew 148 Brice Teinturier that if, as a candidate, he embodied continuity; he would be beaten, as social depression and the political crisis were so profound at the time. Nicolas Sarkozy’s slogan would therefore be … break! And all his proposals would be organised and presented as if they had the potential for a break with the past, for a profound change. Suc- cess yet again: Only 38% of French people thought that if Ségolène Royal were elected, there would be profound changes in France, 63% if it were Nicolas Sarkozy. The incumbent, who was not the boss but the number 2 in the Government, had succeeded in em- bodying change. 6 The Campaign Follow-up and Adjustments The very strong presence of Nicolas Sarkozy on the ground and the use of a very large number of polls and qualitative surveys helped to adjust the foundations of this election and to support strategy. Other tools would be used during the campaign which ran from January to April: • On-line panels, helping to identify swing voters and to look in detail at the reasons that cause them to leave/join a particular candidate. • Systematic and real-time post-testing of the candidate’s main TV or radio appearances. • Monitoring of public opinion via regular qualitative surveys and open questions, which also help improve elements of lan- guage and create the effect of reality. • Snapshot surveys at decisive moments. Because of these tools, and the candidate’s outstanding statesman- ship, the campaign would not reveal any major shifts in relation to the strategy as a whole, including at critical moments like the rise in power of François Bayrou, thereby creating great clarity and, very importantly, consistency. The Presidential Elections in France 2007 149 The other contribution made by the polls would concern campaign themes: it was Nicolas Sarkozy, more than Ségolène Royal, who would succeed in imposing the major controversies and the way to approach them: the “revaluation of labour”; purchasing power; order and authority; immigration. 7 Opinion Polls – Tools of Communication and Subjects of Debate Opinion polls were issues in the presidential election campaign, not simply tools for monitoring and understanding public opinion. Some of Nicolas Sarkozy’s proposals, criticised by commentators, were measured by opinion polls: gaining strong support in public opinion, they were then legitimised and it became much more difficult to criticise them. The low rating recorded for the Front National also met with scepti- cism from the commentators, who did not stop questioning it. They were wrong, but this debate punctuated the campaign and fed into it a continual air of “suspense” regarding the final rating the candi- dates would achieve. The rise in power of François Bayrou also represented a major cam- paign challenge: Initially, when he peaked at 8%, the UDF candidate denounced the opinion polls and an alleged collusion with the “pow- erful” and the media serving the major candidates. When these polls then showed that François Bayrou might follow close on Ségolène Royal’s heels and, if he reached the second round, beat Nicolas Sarkozy, the polemic shifted: François Bayrou stopped criticising them (!), and interestingly, commentators and/or supporters of Nico- las Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal saw these second round hypotheses as false and manipulative. Often these were the same people who blamed pollsters for not testing the second rounds with Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002 but what did consistency matter to them … TNS Sofres’ doctrine on this point was very clear and praised by the me- 150 Brice Teinturier dia: as soon as the first round showed a gap of under 5 points be- tween Ségolène Royal and François Bayrou, second rounds pitting Sarkozy against Bayrou were also processed and published, in addi- tion to second rounds pitting Royal against Sarkozy. On the other hand, if the gap was greater, and precisely in order not to encourage opinion poll manipulation, second rounds with Bayrou were neither processed nor published. Lastly, the polls undeniably accelerated Ségolène Royal’s loss of credibility the moment they showed her drop in public opinion and her low presidential credibility compared with that of N. Sarkozy. In this sense, they do not create a public opinion phenomenon but, once it has been measured and published, can reinforce it. 8 In Conclusion This article covers barely a fraction of the history of the French presidential elections of 2007. One might also discuss the reasons for Ségolène Royal’s defeat and François Bayrou’s unexpected suc- cess. A close analysis of agenda effects is also underway, aiming to draw a parallel between the handling of the campaign by the media, the role of current affairs and the themes fore grounded by candi- dates during this period. The hyper-personalization of the campaign is also the subject of an in-depth study. Lastly, new political pro- grammes, like “J’ai une question à vous poser” (“I have a question to ask you”), created by TF1 and TNS Sofres, involving over 100 French people asking the candidates questions, have marked a fun- damental change in political communication and relationships with public opinion. What is accepted on the other hand and which we aimed to point out here, is the extent to which study tools have played a triple role in this campaign, and always a fundamental role: firstly, in finding out public opinion, which is used to support the foundations of strategy via highly diverse tools and techniques; then, in the selection of can- The Presidential Elections in France 2007 151 didates, as a measurement of a public opinion resource that has be- come decisive; lastly, as an object of communication and/or issues of debate. This shift is irreversible and makes opinion polls and proper use of them a decisive element in a candidate’s success. Lastly, the polls undeniably accelerated Ségolène Royal’s loss of credibility, the moment they showed her drop in public opinion and her low presidential credibility compared with that of N. Sarkozy. In this sense, they do not create a public opinion phenomenon but, once it has been measured and published, can reinforce it. Table 6. Change in Voting Intentions in the First Round of the Presidential Elections 2007 Base: out of 100 votes cast 17-18 Jan. 31 Jan. 1 Feb. 14-15 Feb. 28 Feb. 1 March 7-8 March 14-15 March 21-22 March Arlette Laguiller 2 3 2 2 2.5 2 2 Olivier Besancenot 3 2.5 3.5 3 4 2 3.5 Gérard Schivardi - - - - - < 0.5 < 0.5 José Bové - 4 3 2 1.5 2 2.5 Marie-George Buffet 3 2.5 2.5 3.5 1.5 2.5 2 Ségolène Royal 31 26 26 25.5 25.5 24 26.5 Dominique Voynet 2 1.5 1 1 1 1 1 Corinne Lepage 0.5 0.5 0.5 < 0.5 0.5 - - François Bayrou 9 13 12 18.5 23 22 21.5 Nicolas Sarkozy 35 32 33 31 27 31 28 Nicolas Dupont- Aignan 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 < 0.5 1 - Frédéric Nihous < 0.5 < 0.5 < 0.5 < 0.5 < 0.5 < 0.5 1 Philippe de Villiers 1 2 2.5 1 1.5 0.5 1 Jean-Marie Le Pen 13 12.5 13 12 12 12 11 152 Brice Teinturier Table 6 (continued) Base: out of votes cast 28-29 Mar. 4-5 April 11-12 April 16-17 April 18-19 April 20-21 April Official results 22 April 2007 Arlette Laguiller 1 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.34 Olivier Besancenot 3.5 4 4 3.5 5 4 4.15 Gérard Schivardi 0.5 <0.5 <0.5 0.5 <0.5 0.5 0.34 José Bové 2.5 2 2 1 1.5 1.5 1.31 Marie-George Buffet 2.5 3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2 1.95 Ségolène Royal 27 23.5 26 25 24 25 25.41 Dominique Voynet 1 1 1.5 1.5 1 1 1.57 Corinne Lepage - - - - - - - François Bayrou 18 20 17 19 19.5 18 18.76 Nicolas Sarkozy 30 28 30 28.5 28 30 31 Nicolas Dupont- Aignan - - - - - - - Frédéric Nihous 1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1.18 Philippe de Villiers 1 1.5 1 1.5 1.5 2.5 2.29 Jean-Marie Le Pen 12 13 12 14 14 13 10.69 “Presidential Elections Barometer” TNS Sofres / UNILOG for RTL / Le Figaro / LCI Voters Lack Commitment: Canada Richard Jenkins Abstract. Although the history of Canadian voter turnout is one of gradual decline, combined with election-to-election fluctuations, across a four election period turnout dropped by 15 points to 60.9 per cent in 2004. Turnout did rise somewhat in 2006, to 64.9 per cent, but did not return to previous levels. Although there are clearly long-term forces at play, they seem incapable of explaining such a dramatic fall. This chapter considers the dramatic decline from the perspective of a proprietary segmentation tool; Conversion Model. TM Using this approach reveals a disengaged, un- committed electorate that represents a challenge to the future of democ- ratic participation. The lack of a large committed group of Canadians combined with the large pool of people with a low commitment to voting is the key to understanding how turnout could have dropped so signifi- cantly so fast. In addition, the party competition and the reporting of polls during the election period are strongly related to the likelihood of voting with the Liberal Party enjoying a strong advantage of low turnout. 1 Background In the days leading up to the 2004 federal election, pundits and poll- sters observed almost universally that the election was “too close to call.” A close election should have elicited a positive impact on turnout by increasing the likelihood that voters will see their vote as being meaningful, and because a close race leads to greater activity to mobilize voters on behalf of the parties. In the end, the election was not as close as it seemed likely to be and turnout was again lower, though only slightly lower than the previous election. 154 Richard Jenkins Why did turnout not rise under these conditions and why has it de- clined overall? Did the closeness of the election prevent a worse de- terioration of turnout? Does turnout matter for which party wins? Political scientists have devoted considerable effort to try to under- stand why turnout has declined and the reasons why some people turnout while others do not (see Pammett 1991; Franklin 1996; Blais 2000). These cross-national studies have found that turnout is related to structural (turnout is lower in first past the post electoral systems), contextual (time of year and competitiveness of election) and indi- vidual (e.g. age and education) factors. The decline in turnout in Western democracies has been accompa- nied by shifts in public attitudes about politics that have been vari- ously categorized as a decline in trust or confidence (Pharr and Put- nam, 2000) or, in the Canadian case, as a “decline in deference” (Nevitte, 1996). One of the most frequently cited explanation for the cultural change understands it in terms of the development of post materialism, which links the change in culture to the fact that post- war generations grew up in a time of economic prosperity and are, therefore, less concerned with traditional political conflicts and par- ticipation (Iyengar, 1997). Clearly each individual has a propensity to vote based on their indi- vidual characteristics (age, gender, etc), the election context, the electoral system but all previous research has relied on estimating these effects based on how people acted (or reported their actions). We know, however, that people do things for a variety of reasons and that the gradual decline in actual voting may have deceived us in to believing that citizens were fairly loyal to the electoral system when in fact they were clearly being affected more fundamentally by the changes to the society in which they live. By starting with commitment we can better understand the funda- mental structure of public opinion that sets the context for the deci- sion to participate or not. The decision to vote on election day re- flects a combination of short and long-term force. The evidence here Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 155 indicates that we have a disengaged electorate that is not committed to voting. Many still vote, but most are at least at some risk of not voting in any given election. The lack of commitment among voters is clearly driven by the general disengagement from politics that has been noted in Canada and other democracies, which affects younger voters in particular. Importantly, when we consider vote intention, there are some parties that are advantaged by low voter turnout. 2 Turnout in Canada: The Evidence Elections Canada reports that turnout in the 2004 federal election was 60.9 per cent. This represents an all-time low for federal partici- pation. Though only marginally lower than in 2000 (61.2, the previ- ous low), 2004 was the fourth consecutive election in which turnout has declined. In the 1984 and 1988 elections, turnout was as high as 75 per cent. In 2006, turnout rebounded somewhat. As a percentage of voting age rather than registered voters, the actual turnout is even lower (Johnston 2000). Before 2004 it was tempting to attribute some of the decline in terms of voter turnout to the context of the elections in the 1990s and 2000, which seemed to offer Canadians little choice and little drama. The Liberals easily won majorities in each election and Canadians expressed high levels of satisfaction with the direction of the country throughout their period of government. If this explanation makes sense for the elections in 1997 and 2000, it does not for the 2004 election when the Liberals were no longer as popular and the Con- servative Party had been formed to present a united right wing alter- native to the Liberals. The decline in turnout is not unique to Canada, though Canada is rela- tively low, especially when it comes to turnout as a percentage of vot- ing age population (Johnston 2000). Turnout is declining in most es- tablished democracies (Blais 2000) so the evidence from Canada is likely to be of value in understanding the dynamics of turnout else- where. What then is the cause of this observed decline in turnout? 156 Richard Jenkins 79 74.8 75.7 76.7 71 75.7 75.3 75.3 69.6 67 64.1 60.9 69.3 64.9 50 60 70 80 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Fig. 1. Turnout in Federal Elections: 1962 to 2006 Source: Elections Canada In a recent paper, Blais et al. (2004) separate out the impact of pe- riod effects (something unique to a particular time that inflates or deflates turnout), life-cycle effects (a change in the effect of aging on voting) and generational effects (the process of being born into a particular time and place because the relationship between age and voting is central to potentially understanding who votes). Older people have traditionally voted at a higher rate, so it is impor- tant to understand whether this is a lifecycle or generational effect. If there is a generational effect, then some portion of the decline in turnout may be a function of generational replacement (older genera- tions with a higher propensity to vote are being replaced over time by generations with a lower propensity to vote). Blais et al. conclude that, between 1968 and 2000, the main reason for the decline in vot- ing is caused by generational replacement. There is also a period effect, whereby all groups are less likely to vote (about 3 points) in elections after 1990. Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 157 Finding that the decline in voter turnout is a product of generational replacement is, as the authors of the study note, consistent with the findings from the U.S. (Lyons and Alexander 2000). That said, gen- erational replacement as an explanation for the decline does not really explain why younger generations are less likely to vote. Blais et al. suggest that the most recent generations are less likely to vote because they pay less attention to politics and because they do not see voting as a moral duty. As such, the decline in turnout “reflects a larger cultural change” (Blais et al., 2004). 3 Methodology This examination of turnout during the 2004 election campaign is based on a telephone survey conducted early in the campaign. The survey was in field between May 31 and June 6, 2004 with a random sample of 1,018 Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results can be considered accurate within plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Data were weighted by household com- position, age, gender and region. Turnout is an elusive concept when measured in surveys, because people tend to either intentionally or unintentionally misreport their previous voting history and their likelihood of voting in future elec- tions (Bernstein et al. 2001). In addition, turnout is a dichotomous variable (one either votes or one does not) that does not capture the underlying relationship between the attitudes people have and the de- cision to vote or not. It may be interesting to observe that a person did not vote but we cannot be sure whether this choice is a product of a fundamental lack of caring about voting or more superficial matters. The starting point here is to see voting as flowing from a more gen- eral theory of human behaviour. In effect, we replace the question, “why do some people vote?” with, “how committed are Canadians to voting?” To answer the latter question we use a theory of com- mitment that is operationalized in the Conversion Model (for further elaboration of the model the reader is invited to see Hofmeyer and 158 Richard Jenkins Rice, 2000). The Conversion Model is based upon the idea that there is a “general process whereby people develop commitments in order to satisfy needs and values” (Ceurvorst, 1993). The theory of com- mitment is general so it applies to any situation where people make choices either to do or not do something or to choose one brand of a product rather than another (Hofmeyr and Bennett, 1994). The Con- version Model segments people based on their commitment to their current choice and potential for change. Commitment to voting is a function of three psychological dimen- sions: satisfaction, involvement, and the attraction of the alternatives or ambivalence. Satisfaction refers to the extent to which someone is happy with the choice they are making. Is the choice making them happy or not? If they are satisfied, they are more likely to continue to make the same choice. In this case, we operationalize satisfaction in terms of an evaluation of the politicians and parties that people must choose to elect. All other things being equal someone is more likely to cast a vote for a person whom he or she likes. Involvement is the degree to which the choice matters to the person. Different people think that different choices they make are impor- tant. The more important or involved a person is the more he or she has something at stake in changing their position. People for whom the act of voting is important are more likely to vote. If a choice is important, then the person making the choice has invested in the choice they have made. Changing their course of action will not likely be done lightly for those who have a lot invested. Finally there is ambivalence, which is the extent to which there is uncertainty felt about what is the right choice. If a person, feels there are good reasons for voting as well as good reasons for not voting then he or she is being pulled in different directions. This feeling of being pulled undermines one’s commitment to voting. The impact of this ambivalence will, of course, depend on one’s satisfaction with the current choice and the level of involvement. Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 159 These different dimensions interact and a person’s level of commit- ment is a product of this interaction. For example, low levels of sat- isfaction may not necessarily mean that people will not vote if they are also highly involved and lacking in ambivalence. The person who sees voting as a moral or social obligation will be involved and therefore more likely to vote in spite of low satisfaction, especially if he or she does not feel ambivalence. 4 Findings There is a weak level of commitment to voting in the Canadian population consistent with the overall low turnout. Only a very small percentage (5%) is in the most committed segment (Entrenched) compared with more than one in four who are in the least committed segment (Convertible). • ENTRENCHED/“Voters”: One in twenty (5%) Canadians are strongly committed to voting in elections. It is extremely likely these people will vote when given the opportunity. • AVERAGE/“Likely Voters”: Just over one in four (28%) are weakly committed to voting. They are likely to vote (that is their standard position) but they are not as strongly committed to this position as the entrenched group. • SHALLOW/“At Risk”: Almost two in five (41%) are uncom- mitted and should be considered at risk of not voting. They are at risk of not voting because they are more likely to be am- bivalent about voting (they see reasons for not voting), are less likely to think that voting is important to them, and less likely to think positively about their choices. • CONVERTIBLE/“Non-Voters”: One in four (26%) is highly uncommitted to voting and highly unlikely to vote on election day. It would be surprising if members of this group voted in any election, given their views. 160 Richard Jenkins Even if all of those with any propensity to vote (the members of the shallow, average and entrenched groups) decide on election day to vote, only three in four Canadians would cast ballots. Of course, the shallow group is at a high risk of not voting and even those who are entrenched or average commitment can be impacted by events out of their control on Election Day (e.g. family emergency or responsibil- ity; poor weather). No wonder that turnout is so low. It is generally observed that younger age cohorts and those with lower levels of education and income are less likely to vote. Consis- tent with this expectation, we find an overrepresentation of these groups in the Convertible and Shallow segments. For example, al- most four in ten (39%) youths (under 25) have the lowest level of commitment. This is important because it would suggest that younger generations are not developing a personal involvement with voting and are actually seeing reasons for not voting. When asked directly, over six in ten say that they are certain to vote in the election and another one in five say they are likely to vote dur- ing the campaign. Few admit they do not intend to vote. Self- reported vote intention does not discriminate very well between those who are likely and those who are unlikely to vote. In fact, the self-reports leave one with the conclusion that there is a large group of people who are going to vote in most elections (they are certain), which directly contrasts with the commitment results. If people are so certain, why do they not turn out on election day and why has turnout declined. Using the commitment results one finds that some of the people who claim to be certain are actually quite likely to not vote. In fact, only 5 per cent of those who claim to be certain fit the entrenched view (“voters”) and 36 per cent are at least average (“likely voters”). As such, fully, 53 per cent are at least at risk of not voting even though the profess a certain intention. In summary, when the commitment levels of Canadians to voting are understood, one can see the reason why turnout is low and declining. Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 161 Table 1. Self-reported Likelihood of Voting by Segment Total Certain Likely Unlikely Certain not to vote Entrenched/“Voters” 4.5 5.2 5.9 0.8 1.1 Average/„Likely voters” 27.6 35.8 19.5 9.0 7.7 Shallow/“At risk” 38.6 45.0 38.1 14.9 16.4 Convertible/„Non-voters” 23.0 8.4 32.1 72.0 58.8 Unclassified 6.3 5.6 4.4 3.4 16.1 Self-expressed intention to vote is strongly correlated with commit- ment but by digging deeper into the psychology of choice, one can see that the commitment results provide a compelling picture of the voting psychology. 5 Commitment and Expressed Vote Intention Vote intentions expressed at the beginning of a campaign are some- what conditional since we know that campaigns can often have an effect in terms of the outcome of an election (see Jenkins, 2002; Brady and Johnston, 2006). Although commitment to voting could also change, particularly if the campaign activates an issue of impor- tance to a voter, we would expect it to be more stable. Early in the campaign, the national race was clearly close. The Conservative Party, in opposition at the time, had a slight lead (19.5%) over the Liberal Party (17.2%) and the NDP, the tradi- tional third party was not far behind (13.5%). The Bloc Quebecois (BQ), which runs only in Quebec, had a decided advantage in that province. More than one in five were unsure of their intention (even after we probed for leaning to one party or another) and one in ten refused to tell us. Interestingly, only 4 per cent volunteered that they were certain not to vote. 162 Richard Jenkins What can, however, we make of these results? Did the Conservatives have an advantage when one considers the likelihood of their voters going to the polls? Does the significant amount of uncertainty about who to vote for reflect the potential for large campaign shifts? Alter- natively, is this uncertainty a symptom of a lack of commitment? Consider first the relationship between vote intention and commit- ment to voting (Table 2). Among those identified by the segmenta- tion as non-voters, 11 per cent indicate that they won’t vote and 28 per cent are not sure who they will vote for. As one moves to those who are more committed to voting, the uncertainty about who to vote for decreases as does the self-expressed intention to not vote. Many likely voters are uncertain who they are going to vote for, which is clearly reflecting the fact that while they are committed to the voting act they are ambivalent about the choice and/or fail to see the difference that voting would have. There is also a clear Liberal advantage in the early days of this cam- paign in terms of the likely turnout of their voters. Among commit ted voters, which unfortunately for the Liberals are not a very large Table 2. Vote Intention by Likelihood of Voting (Conversion Model Seg- ment). Commitment to Voting % intending to vote for each party (in- cluding leaners) Total Entrenched “Voters” Average „Likely voters” Shallow “At risk” Convertible „Non- voters” Liberal 17.2 35.6 23.6 15.1 11.2 Conservative 19.5 13.3 22.5 21.8 15.1 NDP 13.5 8.9 15.9 14.8 11.6 BQ 7.6 6.7 6.9 9.4 6.5 Other 6.9 11.1 4.0 5.7 12.5 Don’t know 22.0 11.1 18.8 20.8 27.6 Refused 9.7 13.3 8.3 11.2 4.7 Certain not to vote 3.7 0 0 1.3 10.8 Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 163 group, the Liberals have a decided advantage. The Liberal lead among the most likely voters, is in the early days of the campaign offset by the decided lead that the Conservative Party has among voters who are at risk or who are not likely to vote. Figure 2 shows the proportion of each party’s supporters, at the time of the poll, by their level of commitment. Here the Liberal advantage is pronounced. Almost half (48%) of those who intend to vote Lib- erals are likely voters. In comparison, only 36 per cent of those who intend to vote PC are likely voters. The NDP has a similar profile to the PC party while the BQ intenders are not committed to voting. As a federal party committed to getting Quebec out of the federation and with no chance of forming the government, the commitment among this group may be artificially low. Minor parties clearly have a disadvantage. Few of those who express an intention for one of the minor parties can be counted on by their party to show up. This is consistent with the low likelihood that any minor party candidate will get elected in a first-past-the-post electoral 3 8 4 4 3 9 26 16 25 32 33 39 40 33 51 45 45 36 32 43 20 20 19 15 0 25 50 75 100 Undecided Other BQ NDP Conservative Liberal Committed Likely At risk Non-voters Note: Distribution of likely voters within party preference (based on decided and leaners) Fig. 2. Degree to Which Parties Can Expect Voters to Cast Ballots 164 Richard Jenkins system. It is also evident that those without a party preference at the beginning of the campaign are also more likely to be non-voters. Overall vote intentions suggested at the beginning of the campaign that the Conservative party had a slight advantage. Nevertheless the Conservative party had a glaring weakness – its supporters were less likely to vote. This is apparent when one considers how the election looked for the Conservatives at the start of the campaign under three rough turnout scenarios. Under the worse case, and unlikely scenario (#1) that only those who are the most committed to voting actually vote (what we have labelled voters and the likely voter groups), the Conservatives were actually five points behind the Liberals. As sce- narios 2 and 3 indicate, the larger the share of the uncommitted, who actually have a preference for one of the parties, that gets mobilized, the better the Conservative Party does relative to its competitors. Table 3. Impact of Turnout on Party Success. Level of Turnout Scenarios % intending to vote for each party (including leaners) Scenario 1: Only En- trenched and Likely Voters Scenario 2: Entrenched, Likely and At risk Voters Scenario 3: Everyone votes Liberal 34.8 28.5 26.9 Conservative 28.9 30.3 29.7 NDP 20.5 21.7 21.2 BQ 9.0 11.8 11.7 Other 6.9 7.7 10.6 6 Political Engagement and the Democratic Deficit One way to understand the depth of the problem with the low levels of commitment and to validate the segmentation is to consider how people at different levels of commitment to voting feel about aspects of the electoral competition. Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 165 Starting with political engagement, entrenched voters are signifi- cantly more engaged in politics, as reflected in their talking about it and their interest in the election. On a ten-point scale the likely vot- ers (entrenched) are very high on average (8.1) reflecting the fact that the segmentation is capturing a core element of what it takes to vote; interest. As we move to groups with lower levels of commit- ment, we find a drop off in interest, so that those with a shallow commitment differ from those with an average level in being less engaged with elections. Consider that on a ten-point scale the group most likely to not vote has an average value of less than three. This group is so disengaged that it would be a remarkable effort to move them to the shallow level of commitment. Table 4. Political Engagement by Segment. Level of Commitment to Voting Total Entrenched “Voters” Average „Likely voters” Shallow “At risk” Convertible „Non- voters” Discussed Federal Election in Past Week Often 24 20 30 26 14 Occasionally 44 53 52 44 34 Not at all 32 27 18 30 52 Interest in Federal Election Average (0 to 10 scale) 5.7 8.1 7.4 6.1 2.9 When one asks about the degree to which the current political sys- tem is meeting the needs of Canadians, the evidence suggests that Canadians are quite cynical about the political system in which they find themselves. For example, three in four think that those elected to Parliament soon lose touch. In general these beliefs, if acted upon, would undermine the likelihood of voting. 166 Richard Jenkins The attitudes of those who are at risk of not voting or who we con- sider non-voters are clearly barriers to active engagement in the po- litical process. Cynicism about representation is a key driver, as is the view that one’s vote does not count. The non-voters, not surprisingly, express particularly negative views across all the questions. However, on three of the five questions, this group is not particularly different from those who are merely at risk of not voting (shallow or at-risk voters). Those people with a shallow Table 5. Agreement with Statement by Segment. Level of Commitment to Voting % who agree strongly or some- what Total Entrenched “Voters” Average „Likely vot- ers” Shallow “At risk” Convertible „Non-voters” I don't think the government cares much what people like me think. 62 46 46 70 77 Those elected to Parliament soon lose touch. 77 75 66 83 85 All federal parties are basically the same; there isn't really a choice. 44 34 24 46 65 So many people vote that my vote hardly counts for anything. 30 32 20 28 41 Sometimes politics and government seem so compli- cated that a person like me can't really understand what's going on. 49 34 43 51 54 Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 167 level of commitment strongly agree that government does not care and politicians lose touch. Where they differ from the non-voter group is in being less negative about whether their vote counts or whether there is any choice. Because they see the value in the choice they are making, the shallow commitment group is only at risk. 7 Summary and Implications The use of commitment as the lens through which to view non- voting is instructive. By focusing on the underlying structure of how people link their values and interests to their choices – using a measure of commitment – we are able to show that there is only a small contingent of eligible voters are deeply committed to voting (a group that is also older on average). We might expect that in differ- ent countries the level of commitment may vary reflecting the com- bination of cultural and systemic factors in each country. Commit- ment provides a measure of the underlying relationship that people have to the electoral system that captures these different influences. Where countries have low commitment, like Canada, the electoral system and politics will not exhibit a high level of loyalty as evi- denced by people voting regularly in elections. Turnout may rise in some elections or it may decline further. Consider that the commit- ment findings place into context the fairly steep decline in turnout over the past four elections. A public that was not committed to vot- ing no doubt made the decline possible, since the “period” effect that Blais et al. (2004) report is really a function of the weak attachment felt by Canadians. People were voting but the underlying commit- ment to voting was likely low. In Canada turnout has not declined further since 2004, but even if turnout does not decline further, there is no reason for complacency. The democratic deficit is clear. More and more Canadians who are eligible to vote are choosing to stay home each election. Commit- ment is strongest among those who are politically engaged and who identify less with the negative characterizations of the political proc- 168 Richard Jenkins ess. Given that the relationship between citizens and their govern- ments has been under strain throughout the globe, building commit- ment to voting would require engaging people in politics as well as changes to the way we conduct politics. Non-voters don’t vote be- cause, compared to voters, they have lower opinions about politi- cians and parties, place less personal importance on voting and see reasons for not voting. Importantly, who votes and who does not can give some parties an advantage. While the Conservatives had a slight lead in the polls early in the campaign, it belied a strategic weakness. Many of their supporters were unlikely to show up on election day. Clearly this highlights the importance of turnout in contemporary political dis- course. References Bernstein, Robert F., William Shay, and Frank Stafford. 2001. “Overre- porting Voting: Why it Happens and Why It Matters” Public Opinion Quarterly 65: 22-44. Blais, André and Agnieszka Dobrzynska. 1998. “Turnout in Electoral De- mocracies.” European Journal of Political Research 33: 239–261. Blais, Andre, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte, and Richard Nadeau. 2004. “Where Does Turnout Decline Come From?” European Journal of Po- litical Research. Volume 43, Issue 2: 221-236 Brady, Henry E and Richard Johnston eds. 2006. Capturing Campaign Effects. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Ceurvorst, Robert W. 1993. “The Conversion Model: Measuring Con- sumer Commitment and Potential for Change” paper presented at the American Marketing Association 24 th Annual Attitude Research Con- ference. Available at http://www.conversionmodel.co.za. Franklin, Mark N. 1996. “Electoral Participation.” In Comparing Democ- racies: Elections and Voting in Global Perspective. Lawrence LeDuc, Richard G. Niemi and Pippa Norris (eds.) Thousand Oaks: Sage. Hofmeyr, Jan and R. Bennett. 1994. “Double Jeopardy and Consumer Commitment” Canadian Journal of Marketing Research. 13:12-20. Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 169 Hofmeyr, Jan and Butch Rice. 2000. Commitment Led Marketing. (Wiley, Toronto). Iyengar, Ronald. 1997. Modernization and Postmodernization: Cultural, Economic, and Political Change in 43 Societies (Princeton: Princeton University Press). Jenkins, R.W. (2002) “How Campaigns Matter: Priming and Learning as Explanations for Reform’s 1993 Campaign Success” Canadian Journal of Political Science, 35(2). Johnston, Richard. 2000 “Canadian Elections at the Millennium” in Choices (IRPP, Montreal). Lyons, Williams and Robert Alexander. 2000. “A Tale of Two Electorates: Generational Replacement and the Decline of Voting in Presidential Elections.” In Journal of Politics 62: 1014-1034. Nevitte, Neil. 1996. Decline of Deference. (Peterborough: Broadview, 1996) Pammett, Jon H. 1991. “Voting Turnout in Canada” in Herman Bakvis ed. Voter Turnout in Canada. (Royal Commission on Electoral Reform and Party Financing: Toronto), pp 33-60. Pharr, Susan and Robert B. Putnam eds. 2000. Disaffected Democracies. (New Jersey: Princeton). Part 3: The Public Sector in Transition Developing Employment Policy in Europe Harald Bielenski Abstract Policy making needs a vision of how society should be organ- ised. It also needs solid empirical data which describes the reality of citi- zens. In a world which is becoming increasingly complex and where change occurs fast, the provision of empirical data which adequately re- flects reality is a challenging task. Data provided by the statistical offices is often unable to meet all requirements. Therefore representative sample surveys play an important role in providing policy makers with the neces- sary information. This applies to all stages of the policy-making process: the identification of the problem, the design of adequate measures, the implementation stage and the final evaluation. The article gives examples from employment policy. It addresses topics which are relevant for the proclaimed goal of creating “more and better jobs” in Europe: labour- market participation, working hours and health and safety at work. 1 Introduction: Challenges for Employment Policy in Europe Imagine that all those who want to be gainfully employed actually have a job. Imagine further that working hours and other working conditions of all those who have a job match with their personal preferences and abilities. What would reality look like then? To what extent would it differ from the present situation? What type of political action would be needed to make reality more in line with people’s own wishes and abilities? 174 Harald Bielenski At the Lisbon European Council of 2000 the 15 Member States (EU15) which formed the European Union at that time agreed on the strategic goal to raise the overall employment rate from 63.4 % in 2000 to 70% by 2010 and, more specifically, the employment rate for women from 54.1% to more than 60 % by the same year. In 2001 the Stockholm European Council added an employment rate target for older people (50%). These targets were explicitly related to the position of the European Union in a globalized world. According to Commissioner Vladimir Špidla, however, “progress over recent years towards the Lisbon and Stockholm employment rate targets for 2010 … remains insufficient overall and greater efforts are needed to provide the right impetus for further improvement” (European Commission 2006: 3). One of the interesting questions in this context is whether or not these ambitious political goals are actually in line with what people want for themselves or whether this is something decided by “those in Brussels” in a political context far away from the daily life of European citizens. This article aims to investigate this question by means of representative data. The article will focus on Europe. Industrialised countries in other parts of the world could, however, face similar problems (unem- ployment, ageing workforce, reconciling paid work and family du- ties etc.) 2 Data The article mainly draws on three different data bases: (1) The survey “Employment Options for the Future” was conducted in 1998 on behalf of the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions. The Foundation is an autono- mous body of the European Union, created to assist in the formula- tion of future policy on social and work-related matters. The Em- Developing Employment Policy in Europe 175 ployment Options Survey was launched in order to find out more about actual and preferred labour-market participation and about working time arrangements relevant to those in paid work and those likely to enter or re-enter the labour market in the near future. The data is representative of the residential population aged 16 to 64 years in EU15 and in Norway. In total 30,557 interviews are avail- able for analysis (Bielenski et al. 2002). This survey provided in- sight into the supply side of the labour market. (2) The “Establishment Survey on Working Time and Work-Life Balance (ESWT)” complemented the Employment Options Survey by providing information about the demand side of the labour mar- ket. During autumn 2004 and spring 2005 a large-scale survey among more than 21,000 establishments in 21 European countries (EU15 and six of the new member states: the Czech Republic, Cy- prus, Latvia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia) was conducted on be- half of the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions. In the context of this survey, personnel manag- ers and – where available – employee representatives (e.g. chairper- sons of the works councils, shop stewards) in the same establish- ments were interviewed. The survey aimed at mapping company policy and practice with regard to various working time arrange- ments. Results are representative of establishments with 10 or more employees (Riedmann et al. 2006). (3) The survey “Was ist gute Arbeit?” (What is a good job?) aimed at getting a deeper understanding of the quality of work. More than 5,000 employees were interviewed about the nature of their work, their working conditions, and about their views of the characteristics of a “good job” (Fuchs 2006). This survey was carried out in Ger- many on behalf of the “Bundesanstalt für Arbeitsschutz und Ar- beitsmedizin” (Federal Institute for Occupational Safety and Health) within the “New Quality of Work Initiative” (INQA) – a joint activ- ity of German ministries and a number of stakeholders like employ- ers’ organisations and trade unions. 176 Harald Bielenski 3 Labour Market Participation The survey “Employment Options for the Future” revealed that in 1998 – two years before the Lisbon European Council – more people would have liked to be in paid work than there were jobs at the time in all countries covered (EU15 and Norway). According to the pref- erences, the employment rate in Europe as a whole would have had to be increased to 74%. This means that in 1998, Europeans were already opting for an employment rate which went beyond the ambi- tious targets set by the Lisbon European Council of 2000. In the meantime progress has been made. In 2005 employment rates in Europe (EU15) have been raised to an overall level of 65.2 %. This is still clearly below the Lisbon target and below the employ- ment rates in the United States and Japan (European Commission 2006: 20). Furthermore, there is still a large gap between the prefer- ences expressed in 1998 and today’s reality. This is particularly true for female employment rates in Southern European countries. The gap between preferences and reality is much larger for women than for men. In countries like Denmark or Norway, practically all women who prefer to work are in paid employment already. Female employment rates would have to rise only very moderately. In other countries, however, dramatic changes are necessary. In Greece, Italy and Spain the preferences of women of working age imply employ- ment rates that are 20 percentage points or more above the 1998 level. Major progress has been made though: female employment rates in Italy, Greece and Spain had increased by 6 to 15 percentage points by 2005 but are still clearly below the preferred level. There is also a general trend towards a greater harmonisation of em- ployment rates in Europe. Significant changes occurred with regard to female labour-market participation. In 1998 the range between the highest and the lowest female employment rate in EU15 was 34 per- centage points (see table 1). Survey results showed that European women would have preferred much less divergence: the gap between the countries with the highest and the lowest preferred female em- Developing Employment Policy in Europe 177 ployment rate was only 25 percentage points. The desired narrowing of the gap was almost achieved in 2005: actual female employment rates differed by 26.6 percentage points in the EU15 countries. What we do not know is whether and – if so – how the preferences have changed over the same period of time. We cannot say whether the present degree of diversity in labour-market participation is now in line with women’s preferences or whether European women have become more ambitious over the past 10 years and would now desire a higher degree of harmonisation within Europe. Table 1. Actual and Preferred Employment Rates (EU15) Actual 1998 Preferred 1998 Actual 2005 Overall employment rate 61.4% 74% 65.2% Male employment rate 71,2% 81% 72,9% Female employment rate 51,6% 67% 57,4% “Gender gap” 19.6 points 14 points 15.5 points Country with highest female rate DK: 70.2% SE: 84% DK: 71.9% Country with lowest female rate ES: 35.8% ES&IT: 59% IT: 45.3% „Country gap” 34.4 points 25 points 26.6 points Sources: Actual 1998 and 2005: European Commission 2006: 259; Popula- tion Aged 15 – 64. Preferred 1998: Bielenski et al. 2002: 26 f; Population Aged 16 – 64; Figures Refer to EU15 and Norway The difference between actual and preferred employment rates is due to two aspects. Firstly, there is a relatively high degree of unemploy- ment. Secondly, in all countries there is a variable but significant part of the population which is neither employed nor actively searching a job – mainly women and people between 55 and 64 years. 178 Harald Bielenski The challenge for policy makers is twofold. In the short term, action is needed to reduce unemployment rates. Unemployment is still one of the top political issues people in Europe worry about (TNS Opin- ion & Social 2007: 43). For a long period in the past, early retire- ment was considered an appropriate means to reduce unemployment and to open up job opportunities for younger people entering the labour market. This policy resulted in a reduction of the actual re- tirement age and low employment rates among those aged 55-64 years in many countries (Leber and Wagner 2007). However, this policy caused problems in the financing of old age pension schemes. These problems become more severe as the ageing of the European population progresses. As a result, retirement age is likely to be in- creased. For example, in November 2006 the German government decided to gradually raise the legal retirement age from the current 65 years to 67 years in 2029. Raising employment rates means providing job opportunities for those parts of the population which stand outside the labour market at present, i.e. elderly workers and women. Consequently, working conditions have to be better adapted to the needs of an ageing work- force (Bellmann et al. 2003). The scope of this challenge is shown by recent research in Germany: almost one quarter of the dependent employees say that – from a health perspective – it is unlikely that they will be able to meet the requirements of their present job until normal retirement age (Fuchs 2006: 160). At a European level the findings of the Working Conditions Surveys also showed that there are problems as far as work sustainability is concerned (Parent- Thirion et al. 2007: 33). Increased labour-market participation of women requires specific policy action, at least in some of the Euro- pean countries, in order to provide adequate public childcare facili- ties (Anxo et al. 2007a). In this complex situation, research based on representative sample surveys can help policy makers get a better insight into people’s de- sires and what companies can do. We will give some examples by having a closer look at working time arrangements. Developing Employment Policy in Europe 179 4 Actual and Preferred Weekly Working Hours The Employment Options Survey of 1998 showed that employees in Europe worked 37.7 hours per week but on average wanted a reduc- tion of their working time by 3.7 hours (Bielenski et al. 2002). The overall trend towards slightly shorter weekly working hours is the aggregated effect of a number of quite heterogeneous relations be- tween actual and preferred working times at the individual level. Only two out of five employees said that they were happy with their present working time arrangements. As many as half stated that they would prefer to work less: 33% would like to reduce their weekly working hours by more than 5 hours per week, 16% by 1 to 5 hours. A remark- able minority wanted to have longer weekly working hours (12%). Employees with very long working hours tended to prefer shorter hours whereas many of those who worked less than 20 hours per week would have preferred to work more hours. Only relatively few employees said that they wanted to work long hours (more than 40 hours), although a significant share of the workforce had such long hours (9% preferred vs. 28% actual). Very short weekly working hours (below 20) were relatively rare, as far as both actual practice and preferences are concerned. There are a number of reasons for working very long or very short hours. If wages are low, very long working times may seem necessary. On the other hand, a high- earning partner and poor public childcare facilities might make very short working hours attractive for married women with children. Development since 1998 has partially, but not fully, been in line with people’s wishes. Employment rates increased, mainly as a result of the creation of additional part-time jobs for women (European Commission 2006: 40). Despite a significant increase in the share of part-time jobs, overall average weekly working hours in 2005 were still clearly above the preferred level (36 hours vs. 34 hours). One of the reasons for this is that there is still a significant part (around 9%) of full-time employees working extraordinarily long hours (>48 180 Harald Bielenski hours per week). Their share has even increased slightly since 2000 (European Commission 2006: 45). Extremely long working hours are not in line with the preferences of the employees, as was shown above. They are also counter-productive in a situation of high unem- ployment and problematic from an occupational health and safety perspective. Men tend to have clear preferences for working hours that cluster around the present full-time standard (between 35 and 40 hours) but a substantial minority of men would also be interested in weekly working hours of between 20 and 34. Among women, working time preferences are more heterogeneous. While working hours around the full-time standard are still the pre- dominant working time arrangement for women, most of the pres- ently employed women in Europe would prefer a 30-hour-week. The 40-hour-week only comes second as far as preferences are con- cerned, closely followed by 35 hours, 20 hours and – much less fre- quently – 25 hours. If we compare actual and preferred working hours in the 16 coun- tries involved in the Employment Options Survey we can see a clear wish for convergence. The range between the country with the long- est actual weekly working hours and the one with the shortest was 7.4 hours in 1998 and as much as 10.5 hours in 2005. But the differ- ence is only 5.1 hours if we look at the preferred working hours. This means that the differences between the European countries would become smaller if preferences were to become reality. This trend is true for both female and male employees. If working-time preferences of men and women were realised the gender gap in working hours would become smaller in most of the countries. In the 1998 survey, actual weekly working hours of men and women in EU15 differed by 8.5 hours while according to the preferences the gender gap would be only 6.4 hours. In 2005, actual working hours of men and women still differed by 7.6 hours on aver- Developing Employment Policy in Europe 181 Table 2. Actual and Preferred Weekly Working Hours Actual 1998 Preferred 1998 Actual 2005 All dependent employees 37.7h 34.0h 36.0 h Men 41.4 h 36.8 h 39.5 h Women 32.9 h 30.4 h 31.9 h “Gender gap” 8.5 h 6.4 h 7.6 h Country with longest hours AU: 41.1 h GR: 36.6 h GR: 40.1 h Country with shortest hours NL: 33.7 h NL: 31.5 h NL: 29.6 h „Country gap” 7.4 h 5.1 h 10.5 h Sources: Actual 2005: European Commission 2006: 44¸ Figures Refer to EU15. Actual 1998 and Preferred 1998: Bielenski et al. 2002: 44; Figures Refer to EU15 and Norway age. Recent survey research from Germany confirms that the gender gap in working hours is still larger than it should be according to people’s own preferences (Holst 2007). These results show that if preferences were realised the differences between the working times of men and women in dependent em- ployment would be considerably reduced, not only across Europe as a whole but also within most of the individual countries. This con- vergence both within and across countries is one of the most impor- tant findings of the Employment Options Survey. There are two challenges for policy makers deriving from this finding: firstly, women should be supported in their wishes to fully participate in the labour market. This would require the availability of adequate child- care facilities among other things. Secondly, men should be encour- aged to reduce their working hours by avoiding extremely long working weeks and by switching to part-time jobs during certain periods of their work-life. 182 Harald Bielenski 5 Companies’ Experiences with Part-Time Work Part-time work is a widely used working time arrangement in Europe. In 2005, 18.4% of the employees in EU25 were part-timers (European Commission 2006: 39). The share of part-timers has sig- nificantly risen in the last decades and it is likely that this trend will continue in the immediate future. At present only two thirds of the companies (with 10 or more em- ployees) in the 21 European countries included in the Establishment Survey on Working Time (ESWT) have at least one part-timer among their staff. The remainder – one third of the companies – does not of- fer part-time jobs (Anxo et al. 2007b). There are large differences be- tween the EU Member States. In the Netherlands nearly 90% of the companies have part-time jobs and over half of those companies are “high incidence companies” with a part-time rate of 20% or more. On the other hand in many Southern European countries experience of part-time work is not widespread at company level. In Spain, Slovenia and Cyprus less than 40 % of the companies (with at least 10 employ- ees) actually employ part-timers, and in Greece and Portugal the share is even lower. There is a significant interest in part-time work among the presently employed and among those who would like to (re-)enter the labour market. To raise part-time rates, employers must be persuaded that part-time work is not only feasible but often in the interest of the company itself. Research showed that part-time work meets employees’ wishes – at least in certain periods of their working life. It is considered a means to reconcile paid work and family duties. On the other hand many companies make use of the advantages of part-time work. The ESWT revealed that one third (34%) of the employers introduced part-time work in their companies in order to meet economic or organisational needs, only slightly more (39%) did so in response to the wishes of their employees and the remainder indicated both reasons. Developing Employment Policy in Europe 183 The ambiguous nature of part-time work – being a means for the improvement of work-life balance on one hand and an organisational tool for employers on the other hand – is reflected by the assessment of various aspects of this work form. The vast majority of managers (79%) see no difference in the level of motivation between part-time and full-time staff: 11 % even believe that part-timers are more mo- tivated than full-timers. In contrast to this positive assessment a sig- nificant part (27%) of the managers in companies with part-time work admit that career prospects for part-timers are worse than those of full-timers. Employee representatives (like shop stewards or works councils) are even more negative in their assessment: 40% report inferior career prospects of part-time staff in their companies (Riedmann et al. 2006: 25). From the point of view of the employees, the need for part-time work is often confined to certain periods of the life cycle – espe- cially when there are children in the household. As a result, this form of work would become more attractive – for women as well as for men – if it were easy to switch from full-time work to part-time and vice versa. In the ESWT only 9% of the companies reported full reversibility of working time, in other words that changing between full-time and part-time is easy to do both ways. One-way shifts, i.e. only from full-time to part-time or from part-time to full-time are reported more often but are also confined to about one quarter of the European companies with 10 or more employees (Anxo et al. 2007b). This shows a remarkable degree of inflexibility among the majority of the companies. 6 Actual and Preferred Sharing of Work Among Men and Women Living as a Couple So far this paper has examined the actual situation and the prefer- ences of individuals and groups by gender and by country. Now we want to look at couples, i.e. men and women who live with a partner. 184 Harald Bielenski In these cases decisions about labour-market participation and work- ing hours are not usually made on an exclusively individual basis. In real life, mutual decision making is the normal situation for the ma- jority of the working population: seven out of ten employed persons share their lives with a male or female partner (Bielenski et al. 2002: 89). Nevertheless, scientific research about labour-market issues very seldom takes this into account. The Employment Options of the Future Survey offers the possibility for such analyses at a European level (Bielenski et al. 2002). If we add up the individual working hours of both partners then we can see that couples in Europe (EU15 and Norway) on average spend 62 hours per week in paid work. According to the preferences, the total time spent for paid work would remain almost unchanged (61 hours). But the distribution among both partners would have to change dramatically. In 1998, the difference in working hours between both partners in a couple was 25.4 hours per week in Europe, i.e. the partner who works more hours (mostly the man) on average spends 25.4 hours more in paid work than the partner who works less or not at all. There is a wide range between the countries surveyed. The smallest difference was found in Denmark (13.7 hours), the largest in Ireland (30.8 hours). The differences between both partners in a couple are due to a wide range of reasons. They may reflect differences in ac- tual working time, e. g. if one partner works full-time and the other one part-time or one of them regularly works overtime. They may also be due to the fact that one of the partners is not in paid work because of unemployment, education/training, retirement, parental leave, voluntary inactivity etc. A large part of the working time dif- ferences, however, is probably due to the gender division of labour. Evidence for this can be found in the relatively small working time differences between partners in the Scandinavian countries – where the traditional breadwinner model is not so dominant – and the rela- tively large differences in those countries with a strong attachment to the male breadwinner model (Ireland, Greece, Spain). Developing Employment Policy in Europe 185 In all 16 countries there is a preference for a less unequal distribu- tion of working time between men and women living as couples. It is true that even if preferences were realised, participation in paid work and working time would still be unequally distributed among both partners. However, the average working time difference in Europe would almost be halved from 25.4 hours to 13.1 hours per week. If we compare the actual situation with people’s preferences we find a strong convergence between the involvement in paid work for both men and women. Differences would become considerably smaller but would still exist. The preferred modes of distribution confirm the trend towards a more equal distribution of paid work. Attachment to the single (male) breadwinner model is weak: It is preferred by only 15% of couples in Europe (but was practiced in 1998 by as many as 35 %). Conversely, its modernised form (man in full-time/woman in part- time) is preferred by significantly more couples (32%) than actually practised (21%). The share of households with two full-time workers would remain unchanged if preferences were realised (32% actual and preferred). Although only 2% of two-adult households in Europe practised the combination of two part-time jobs, 16 % declared a preference for it. This division of paid work is particularly attractive in the Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands where experience of part-time work is already widespread. Table 3. The Sharing of Paid Work Among Both Partners Living Together as a Couple Actual Preferred Man employed – woman not employed 35% 15% Man in full-time – woman in part-time 21% 35% Both partners in full-time 32% 32% Both partners in part-time 2% 16% Source: Bielenski et al. 2002: 97. Couples with at Least One of the Partners in Paid Employment. Figures Refer to EU15 and Norway. Difference to 100 %: Other Combinations 186 Harald Bielenski 7 Working Conditions The EU’s health and safety at work strategy for the period 2002 to 2006 no longer focuses “solely” on the prevention of occupational accidents and occupational diseases (Commission of the European Communities 2002). Instead, it pursues a comprehensive concept of wellbeing at work which takes a number of factors into account, in- cluding the wishes and needs of the working population and the oc- currence of new risks, in particular those of a psychosocial nature. There is practically no “official” data available that provides a com- prehensive view of working conditions of the employed. Labour inspectorates have their own records but these are usually confined to the results of the controls made by the occupational health and safety (OSH) authorities. These controls are normally concentrated on large companies while there is less regulation among medium-sized and, in particular, small companies. Furthermore, regulatory activities by the labour inspectorates focus mainly on whether existing legisla- tion is respected. Consequently, their records do not provide much insight into emerging risks. This is the main reason why the European Agency for Health and Safety at Work (OSHA) has launched a spe- cific research programme to investigate emerging risks. Interviews among employees – based on representative samples – are a means of improving the knowledge base of working conditions and their evolution over time. Such surveys – like the European Working Conditions Survey (Parent-Thirion 2007) – show that tradi- tional strains related to old industrial workplaces (e.g. noise, heat, heavy physical work) are becoming less important in Europe while psychological and social factors are becoming more and more im- portant, and are increasingly the source of work-related diseases and a lack of well-being in the workplace. Multi-disciplinary research teams have tried to face the new scientific challenges in this field (e.g. Ferrie et al. 1999). Job insecurity, psychological stress, increas- ing workloads, strained relations with colleagues and superiors re- quire different measurement methods to traditional work strains. Self-assessment of the employees becomes more and more impor- Developing Employment Policy in Europe 187 tant. Consequently, questionnaire-based measurement methods (such as representative sample surveys) are the adequate instruments for providing an empirical database for identifying new hazards and for evaluating the efficiency of existing regulation in this field. Recent research from Germany shows that “good jobs” are not only characterised by the absence of negative working conditions like noise, heat or physically heavy work (Fuchs 2006). Employees de- scribe their work as being satisfactory if it provides good possibili- ties for using and developing their own abilities, if they have influ- ence on the work process and if there are good social relations in the workplace. An adequate income and a certain level of social security are also constitutive elements of a “good job”. It is evident that OSH policy needs totally different approaches de- pending on whether it has to do with old industrial strains or with the new challenges when it comes to improving working conditions in a broad sense. Noise and heat can be dealt with through technical im- provements aimed at avoiding the respective emission, by equipping workers with adequate protective devices or by reducing exposure times. All these issues can be objectively measured and compliance with legal regulation can be comparably easily controlled and en- forced. This is much more difficult with regard to the “soft” new strains and the so-called resources – like a high degree of autonomy, the adequacy of job challenges, the quality of social relations etc. In these cases external control must be amended by the workers’ own assessments. They are increasingly the ones who are responsible for a health supportive design of their workplaces. A good example is health and safety in computerised workstations, i.e. where visual display units (VDU) are used. In 1990, the Euro- pean VDU Directive (Council Directive 90/270/EEC of 29 May 1990 on the minimum health and safety requirements for work with display screen equipment) came into force and was subsequently implemented in the member states of the European Union. The VDU directive contains relatively few “firm” regulations in the sense that requirements are not precisely defined (e.g. noise less than x db or weighs to be lifted manually must not exceed y kg). It rather draws 188 Harald Bielenski the attention of employers (and employees) to a number of facts that should be taken into consideration in order to provide good working conditions and to prevent health risks (e.g. adjustable keyboards and chairs, adequate size of the symbols shown on the screen). It is not easy to assess compliance with these rules. Within the framework of an ongoing evaluation of the VDU directive launched by a number of EU member states the main empirical data sources are interviews based on representative samples of companies and of employees. First results of the evaluation were presented in June 2007 at the occasion of a conference with the title “More Success through Efficient Regu- lation”. The evaluation shows that overall the instruments of the VDU directive are effective, although there are significant differences be- tween small and large companies (BMAS 2007). The full report will be published by the end of 2007 (Riedmann et al. forthcoming). It is understood that an evaluation of regulation at national or at in- ternational level requires a solid database. Existing experience shows that there is much room for improvement, as the following example illustrates: if employers’ views are collected on the basis of a sample restricted to companies with 5 or more employees the evaluation can hardly claim to present a full picture of reality. If knowledge of the existing regulation and compliance with the legal requirements in- creases with the size of the company then a survey which excludes companies with less than five employees necessarily will give a too positive picture and systematically exclude the most problematic areas. For a solid evaluation this is not the ideal data basis. Of course, the same critical comment would have to be made if the ex- cluded area is the one with the most positive situation with regard to the topic to be investigated. 8 Conclusion The data from representative surveys provides an important amend- ment to official statistics for the policy-making process. This applies to the identification of problems and opportunities, the design of ade- quate action and the measurement of its outcome. Policy evaluation Developing Employment Policy in Europe 189 becomes more and more important in a knowledge society where governments and other policy makers tend to seek scientific support and advice rather than rely on ideological positions. Modern evalua- tion research makes use of a highly sophisticated tool box of analyti- cal instruments. However, one should bear in mind that the outcome of an analysis can only be as good as the empirical data basis. References Anxo, D., Fagan, C., Letablier, M.-T., Perraudin, C. and Smith, M. (2007a): Parental leave in European companies:Establishment Survey on Working Time 2004–2005, Luxembourg, Office for Official Publica- tions of the European Communities Anxo, D., Fagan, C., Letablier, M.-T., Perraudin, C. and Smith, M. (2007b): Part-time work in European companies:Establishment Survey on Working Time 2004–2005, Luxembourg, Office for Official Publica- tions of the European Communities Bellmann, L., Kistler, E., Wahse, J. (2003): Betriebliche Sicht- und Ver- haltensweisen gegenüber älteren Arbeitnehmern (Company attitude and action with regard to older employees), in: “Aus Politik und Zeitge- schichte” – Supplement to “Das Parlament” of 12 May 2003 Bielenski, H., Bosch, G. and Wagner, A. (2002): Working time preferences in sixteen European Countries. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publi- cations of the European Communities. Bielenski, H. and Hartmann, J. (2000): Combining Family and Work: The Working Arrangements of Women and Men. Dublin: European Founda- tion for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (EN00/25). BMAS (2007): Research results prove: Occupational health and safety leads to higher productivity and better working conditions, Press re- lease of the German Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, 13.06.2007, Berlin Commission of the European Communities (2002): Adapting to change in work and society: A new Community strategy on health and safety at work 2002–2006, COM (2002) 118 final, Brussels 190 Harald Bielenski European Commission (2006): Employment in Europe 2006, Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities Ferrie, J., Marmot M.G., Griffiths J. and Ziglio, E. (eds.) (1999): Labour market changes and job insecurity: A challenge for social welfare and health promotion, WHO Regional Publications, European Series, No. 81 Fuchs, T. (2006): Was ist gute Arbeit? Anforderungen aus der Sicht von Erwerbstätigen (What is a good job? Requirements from the point of view of the employees), Dortmund, INQA-Bericht Nr. 19 Holst, E. (2007): Arbeitszeitwünsche von Frauen und Männern liegen nä- her beieinander als tatsächliche Arbeitszeiten(Working time preferen- ces of women and men are closer to each other than actual working ti- mes), in: Wochenbericht des DIW Berlin Nr. 14-15/2007, p. 209 – 215 Leber, U. and Wagner, A. (2007): Early and phased retirement in European companies: Establishment Survey on Working Time 2004–2005, Lux- embourg, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. Parent-Thirion, A., Fernández Macías, E., John Hurley, J. and Greet Vermeylen, G. (European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions) (2007): Fourth European Working Condi- tions Survey, Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities Riedmann, A., Bielenski, H., Szczurowska, T. and Wagner A. (2006): Work- ing time and work–life balance in European companies: Establishment Survey on Working Time 2004–2005, Luxembourg, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. Riedmann, A., Huber, S., Lorenz, D. (forthcoming): Evaluation of the VDU Directive 90/270 EEC, Integrated cross-national report TNS Opinion & Social (2007): European Social Reality, Special EURO- BAROMETER 273, Brussels The School Sport Partnership Programme – Raising Levels of Participation in Physical Education and Sport in Schools in England Susannah Quick Abstract. In England, as in many other western countries, poor diet, lack of exercise and obesity have become huge issue in recent years – particu- larly among children. The Government has launched a number of initia- tives to try to improve this situation. These initiatives include the School Sport Partnership Programme, which aims to increase the level of partici- pation in physical education (PE) and out of hours school sport among children in state schools in England. TNS was commissioned to undertake research to monitor the success of the Programme and to assess whether or not key Government targets in this area have been achieved. The research is now in its fourth year and involves data collection among all schools involved in the programme – of which there are currently (2006/07) nearly 22,000. This article describes the data collection process, the key chal- lenges it presents and how it has developed over the four years since it started; highlights some of the main findings; and describes the role which research has played in helping to bring about improvements in this area. 1 Background In England, poor diet, lack of exercise and obesity have become huge issues over recent years. In particular alarming statistics have been quoted about children. For example among boys and girls aged 192 Susannah Quick 2-15, the proportion who were obese increased between 1995 and 2004, from 11 per cent in 1995 to 19 per cent in 2004 among boys, and from 12 per cent in 1995 to 18 per cent in 2004 among girls (Department of Health 2006). Obesity among children is also linked to social status. Children living in households with the lowest levels of household income have higher rates than those in households with the highest levels of income (Jotangia, Moody, Stamatakis and Wardle 2006). These are issues that are not just limited to England. The World Health Organisation cites obesity as ‘one of the greatest challenges of the 21 st century. Its prevalence has tripled in many countries in Europe since the 1980s, and the numbers of those affected continue to rise at an alarming rate, particularly among children’. It goes on to state that ‘poor diet, a lack of physical activity and the resulting obe- sity and its associated illnesses are together responsible for as much ill health and premature death as smoking’. The lack of physical exercise among some children in England has become a source of concern. Poor facilities and lack of space at schools, a high level of focus on the most ‘academic’ subjects (nu- meracy, literacy), concerns about the personal safety of children playing outside, together with increasing interest in IT based games for children has resulted in a long term downward trend in levels of physical activity for children. For example, in 1994 it was estimated that 46% of children in Years 2–11 (children between the ages of 6 and 16) participated in at least two hours of PE in school each week: by 1999 this had fallen to just 33% (MORI/Sport England 2002). In turn this trend has been linked with problems in health (for example diabetes), behaviour, achievement and attendance at school. These are very significant issues in English society today. In recent years the Government has responded to this growing prob- lem by putting in place a number of different initiatives, designed to help tackle these problems from a number of different perspectives. For example: The School Sport Partnership Programme 193 • The School Fruit Programme was introduced in 2004. This scheme gives a free piece of fruit to all 4 to 6 year olds in state-funded schools in England. The scheme is administered through schools and funded by the National Lottery. • Increased funding for school meals, together with specified nu- tritional standards for the meals. This is particularly important as among those receiving school meals there is an over-repre- sentation of children from less affluent families, who receive free school meals. • Investment in community sport via Sport England – for exam- ple for building new sports clubs or refurbishing old ones, and for funding sports coaches. • The ‘Five a Day’ campaign, which promotes the idea of eating five portions of fruit and vegetables each day. A national cam- paign has been supported by a large number of local initiatives – for example, cookery clubs, initiatives in schools etc. It is against this backdrop that in 2002 a joint Department for Educa- tion and Skills (DfES) 1 /Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) Public Service Agreement Target (PSA) 2 was set, to enhance the take up of sporting opportunities by 5-16 year olds as follows: ‘Enhance the take-up of sporting opportunities by 5 to 16 year olds so that the percentage of school children in England who spend a minimum of two hours each week on high quality 3 PE 4 and school 1 In June 2007 a new Government Department – the Department for Children, Schools and Families (DCSF) – was set up. From that date it took over responsibility for improving the focus on all aspects of policy affecting children and young people. 2 Public Service Agreements (PSAs) are key targets which under-pin the Government’s commitment to deliver service improvements. 3 High quality is defined as ‘producing young people with the skills, un- derstanding, desire and commitment to continue to improve and achieve in a range of PE, sport and health-enhancing physical activities, in line 194 Susannah Quick sport 5 within and beyond the curriculum increases from 25% 6 in 2002 to 75% by 2006 and to 85% by 2008, and to at least 75% in each School Sport Partnership by 2008.’ Longer term – by 2010 – the ambition is to offer all children at least four hours of sport a week made up of: • At least two hours of physical education (PE) and school sport • An additional two – three hours beyond the school day deliv- ered by a range of school, community and club providers. The national PE, School Sport and Club Links strategy brings to- gether eight distinct, but interlinked, strands of work, all aimed at in- creasing levels of participation in PE and school sport. One of these strands is the School Sport Partnership Programme. The programme is based around ‘families’ of state secondary, primary and special schools which have a Specialist Sports College acting as the hub of the family. At the heart of the programme is the Partnership Devel- opment Manager (PDM) who is responsible for managing the partner- ship, while in every secondary school there is a School Sport Co- ordinator (SSCo), and in every primary or special school a Primary Link Teacher (PLT) or Special School Link Teacher (SSLT) who is responsible for leading the strategy at that particular school. Staff are funded by the programme which pays for additional teachers to be employed to fill the gaps created by releasing staff from the timeta- ble. Over the five year period 2003 – 2008, a total of £1.5 billion is being invested by the Government in this area. with their abilities.’ Learning through PE and Sport – A guide to the PE, School Sport and Club Links Strategy. 4 PE is the programme of study that schools offer in PE lessons. 5 School sport is physical activity, dance and sport that takes place outside PE lessons but is still organised by the school. 6 The 2002 baseline was an estimate of the level of PE and school sport participation in English schools. The School Sport Partnership Programme 195 The programme has been rolled out over a period of four years, start- ing with just a small number of schools in 2003. By 2006/07 almost all state funded schools in England had joined the programme (a total of some 21,941 schools), and these were organized into a total of 449 different Partnerships, covering the length and breadth of England. A typical Partnership comprises some 40 primary schools, 7 secondary schools and perhaps 1 special school. In 2003 TNS was commissioned by the DfES to monitor the success of the School Sport Partnership Programme – and in particular to monitor progress against the Government’s key targets in this area. This monitoring is now in its fourth year and has proved both a chal- lenging and extremely rewarding project for TNS in the UK. 2 Method The method used for the survey has developed over the four years of its operation in line with the experiences of all parties – the Partner- ship Development Managers, the schools, DfES and TNS. Indeed regular review and feedback from all parties has been central to its success to date. However the core drivers of the methodology have remained the same: • The need to provide high quality, timely data to DfES to allow monitoring of progress • The need to ensure the highest possible response rate to ensure the credibility of the survey and the quality of the data • The need to provide feedback to individual partnerships, to help ensure their co-operation and to enable them to act on the findings. There have also been other factors which have impacted on the methodology. For example, the Government’s National Audit Office has responsibility for checking that the data provided as evidence for the attainment of targets is robust and high quality. There is also a 196 Susannah Quick separate issue in the Government’s drive to move as much data col- lection as possible online – which has also been a key objective from TNS’ point of view, bearing in mind the sheer quantity of data to be processed over a short period of time. In the first three years of the survey TNS offered two different data collection approaches, which were developed after a pilot phase, as follows: • Schools Model, which involved TNS sending materials di- rectly to all Partnership schools; • PDM Model, which involved Partnership Development Man- agers having a much greater level of responsibility for data col- lection across their schools. Under this model, PDMs were sent the questionnaires for distribution to Partnership schools and were asked to take responsibility for tracking responses, and ensuring that questionnaires were returned to TNS. Partnerships were required to choose one of these Models, and in the first year of the survey roughly equal numbers of Partnerships chose each of the Models. However, as the study progressed, more and more Partnerships understood the benefits of the survey and wanted to take more responsibility for the study, and therefore opted for the PDM Model. By the third year of the survey 92% of Partnerships opted for the PDM model, and in the fourth survey the Schools Model option was dropped, and all Partnerships used the PDM Model. Partnership schools were asked to answer 10 questions regarding pu- pils’ participation in PE and school sport. These questions covered such issues as: • The time spent by pupils in each year group participating in PE in a typical week • The number of pupils in each year group participating in at least two hours of PE and out of hours school sport in a typical week The School Sport Partnership Programme 197 • The number of pupils in each year group involved in intra- school competitive activities • The number of pupils in each year group who have taken part in inter-school competition • Sports provided by the school • Sports for which the school has links to clubs. The data had to be compiled in detail in individual schools and all Partnership schools were invited to take part. The questions could be answered either on paper or online via a dedicated website. In the first survey just 25% of schools submitting their data did so online. However, over the period of the first three surveys considerable ef- forts were made to encourage online response, resulting in a signifi- cant migration to online response, as shown in figure 1: 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 % of responses received online 25% 42% 73% Fig. 1. Proportion of Responses Received Online This migration to online was achieved through a combination of measures, which were developed and tested over the course of the survey, and which included: 1. General encouragement to submit the data online, which was included in all communication 2. Different deadlines for online and paper submissions – once the paper deadline had passed only online submissions were accepted 3. Prizes for Partnerships achieving 100% an online response from all of their schools 4. The development of a website which allowed copies of online submissions to be retrieved and inspected both by the school and the Partnership Development Manager (this facility was not available for paper responses). 198 Susannah Quick Interestingly, general encouragement to submit the data online had a significant impact on the proportion doing so. In the first year of the survey, the research was carried out in two stages. At the first stage respondents were encouraged in all survey communications to sub- mit the data online and 44% of those responding did so. At the sec- ond stage no such encouragement was given, and of those respond- ing just 19% opted for the online approach. This illustrates the power of the simple persuasion and strong promotion of the online data collection route. While we do not have hard data on the sepa- rate impacts of the other factors (listed 2 -4 above) which were all introduced for the third year of the research, anecdotally it is clear that the use of the different deadlines for online and paper responses had a very significant impact, with the other two factors also con- tributing to the major move to online. The overall response rate to the project has been extremely impres- sive, and has increased over time, reflecting recognition of the im- portance of the study, together with the huge reminder and follow-up efforts of the PDMs and TNS. At any point a PDM can access a website to find out which of his/her Partnerships schools have sub- mitted a response and which have yet to respond. 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Number of schools in Partnerships 8,105 12,134 17,122 Number of schools responding 6,547 11,498 16,882 Response rate 81% 95% 99% Fig. 2. Response Rate Each year the fieldwork takes place during May and June. The School Sport Partnership Programme 199 Checking the Information The information generated by the survey is used at a very high level and it is therefore important to check that it is as accurate as possi- ble. Furthermore, figures for each and every school are fed back to the Partnerships, and so it is necessary for quality control to be ex- tremely rigorous. TNS uses three complementary approaches to quality control. Paper questionnaires are manually edited and then computer edited (edits are automatically built-in for the online respondents). In addition, TNS uses a small-scale validation exercise to check responses to a number of the key questions within the survey – and in particular to check those that relate to the Government’s PSA target. The validation exercise involves visits to 10% of the partnerships, selected at random. At these visits TNS asks for evidence (eg. Regis- ters of attendance, timetables, individual pupils records) to back up the figures that have been submitted. 3 The Results The results of the study are used both by the DfES and by individual Partnerships. Indeed each and every Partnership receives a report which lists the results for each school within that Partnership. In that way the PDM can monitor performance at an individual school level, and target action appropriately. Over the last three years the proportion of pupils in Partnership schools who have participated in at least two hours of high quality PE and school sport in a typical week has increased steadily over time – up from 62% in 2003/04 to 80% in 2005/06. This means that the 2006 school sport Public Service Agreement target – to ensure that at least 75% of 5 -16 year olds are spending a minimum of 2 hours each week on PE and sport – has not only been 200 Susannah Quick met in Partnership schools, but has been exceeded by five percentage points. These figures were reasonably consistent across the different phases in which the Partnerships were introduced – although the most re- cently established partnerships tended to have slightly lower levels of participation than did those that had been in existence for several years, probably due to the time it takes for the Partnership to bed in and for good practice to be put in place. An analysis of the data by individual year group shows that pupils in Years 5, 6, 7 and 8 7 were the most likely to have participated in at least two hours of PE/school sport, while those in the youngest year Fig. 3. Percentage of Pupils Who Participated in at Least Two Hours of High Quality PE and Out of Hours School Sport in a Typical Week 7 Year 1 = children aged 5 – 6; Year 2 = aged 6 – 7; Year 3 = aged 7 – 8; Year 4 = aged 8 – 9; Year 5 = aged 9 – 10; Year 6 = aged 10 – 11; Year 7 = aged 11 -12; Year 8 = aged 12 – 13; Year 9 = aged 13 – 14; Year 10 = aged 14 – 15; Year 11 = aged 15 – 16. The School Sport Partnership Programme 201 Fig. 4. Percentage of Pupils Who Participated in at Least Two Hours of High Quality PE and Out of Hours School Sport in a Typical Week – Analysed by Year Group groups (Years 1 – 4) and some of the oldest age groups (Years 10 and 11) were the least likely to have participated. This was highlighted in the first survey, and since then there has been considerable effort to try to improve the levels of participation amongst the very youngest and oldest children. These efforts have brought about considerable improvements in levels of participation for the youngest children, al- though there is still considerable scope for improvement amongst pu- pils in Years 10 and 11. This latter group will become an increasing focus in future years. Many Partnerships have focused on increasing the range of sports available to pupils, in an attempt to increase the appeal of sports to traditionally ‘hard to reach’ young people such as some girls, ethnic minorities and those who are perhaps not naturally ‘sporty’. This is measured through monitoring the number and types of sports offered by each and every Partnership school. 202 Susannah Quick ’03/04 % ’04/05 % ’05/06 % Football 97 97 98 Dance 94 95 96 Gymnastics 94 93 95 Athletics 90 91 92 Cricket 85 85 89 Rounders 86 85 87 Swimming 84 83 84 Netball 84 81 81 Hockey 77 74 77 Tennis 70 71 76 Rugby union 67 71 74 Fitness 58 66 73 Outdoors/advent 68 67 71 Basketball 65 63 67 Multi-skill clubs 26 39 56 Orienteering 46 48 55 Badminton 31 32 35 Cycling 21 27 34 Volleyball 27 25 28 Table tennis 26 25 29 Canoeing 17 20 24 Golf 14 19 23 Softball 16 16 17 Archery 7 12 16 Rugby league 12 11 12 Mountaineering 7 9 10 Sailing 8 8 9 Martial arts 4 7 9 Boccia 5 6 7 Karate 4 5 6 Squash 5 5 6 Fig. 5. Sports and Activities Provided During the Current Academic Year The School Sport Partnership Programme 203 ’03/04 % ’04/05 % ’05/06 % Lacrosse 4 4 5 Equestrian 3 3 4 Rowing 2 3 4 Bowls 2 3 4 Judo 8 6 3 Boxing 1 2 3 Goalball 2 2 2 Triathlon 1 2 2 Skateboarding 1 1 2 Angling 1 1 2 Kabaddi * 1 1 Base: All Schools (2003/04 – 6,574 : 2004/05 – 11,498 : 2005/6 – 16,882 Fig. 5 (Continued) The most recent (2005/06) survey for which results are available revealed that an average of 16 different sports is provided by the average Partnership school – an increase from 14.9 in 2004/05 and 14.5 in 2003/04. The most important increases in availability have been for multi-skill clubs – which are non-traditional clubs which engage children in a variety of different sports activities. To a lesser extent there have also been increases in the availability of other ‘non-traditional’ sports activities such as fitness, orienteering, cycling, canoeing, golf and archery. Competitive sport – both within a school and where schools compete against each other – are key to helping to develop an enthusiasm for sport and for helping children to achieve at a high level. The survey monitors the level of participation in both types of activity. Overall, the 2005/06 survey showed that 71% of pupils participated in intra- school competitive activities during the academic year (for example class matches and leagues). This varied considerably by the individual year group – with again the youngest and oldest children being the least likely to participate. 204 Susannah Quick In terms of inter-school competition the extent of levels of participa- tion were lower, at 37% of pupils during the academic year for the most recent survey. However, this does represent an improvement over time from 33% in 2003/04. Fig. 6. Percentage of Pupils Involved in Intra-school Competitive Activities During Academic Year Fig. 7. Percentage of Pupils Involved in Inter-school Competitive Activities During Academic Year The School Sport Partnership Programme 205 4 Concluding Remarks Over the period of the School Sport Partnership Programme huge progress has been made in terms of levels of participation in schools. There have, however, been other impacts as well. Schools have achieved the participation improvements through in- creases in both curriculum PE and through school sport, although the main driver has been an increase in the amount of curriculum PE. This has been achieved through re-focusing the curriculum timetable and giving a greater priority to PE than had previously been the case. However, there have also been increases in the levels of participa- tion in non-curriculum school sport, which have been achieved through a combination of innovation, targeting, profile raising and encouragement. For example, some schools have gained access to facilities in other schools or in other organizations, or have worked with specialists to promote a particular sport, and to enthuse pupils. Other schools have particularly targeted ‘hard to reach’ groups, such as those from ethnic minority backgrounds, and have provided sports (eg. Kabaddi) or facilities (eg. Activity sessions for girls only) which are particularly attractive to these sectors of the community. Another example is a school that targeted girls in particular age groups (eg. Aged 14 – 15) who lacked confidence in PE and did not attend any school sport activities at lunchtime or after school. They were invited to attend a 10 – week ‘taster’ programme of acitivities such as aero- bics, yoga and boxercise, to try to regenerate their interest in sport. The TNS survey has played in crucial role in helping to bring about these changes. Firstly, it has provided the DfES with regular and reliable information to check what progress is being made. Sec- ondly, at a local level, it has provided Partnership Development Managers with a tool to check what is happening in individual schools, and for them then to target activity as necessary. Some Partnerships Development Managers are responsible for as many as sixty or seventy widely dispersed schools, making it difficult for PDMs to monitor closely what is happening in each school. The sur- 206 Susannah Quick vey has provided them with a mechanism to help do this. Thirdly, it has shown schools that PE and School Sport is an important issue, which needs to move up the educational agenda. The very high re- sponse rate achieved is testament to the regard with which it is now held – and to the considerable efforts of Partnership Development Managers, DfES, the Youth Sports Trust, schools and TNS in mak- ing it the success that it is today. Indeed over the last three years a culture of healthy competition between Partnerships has been fos- tered to achieve high response rates, with most aspiring to 100% completion for their particular Partnership. The publication of the results for individual Partnerships is eagerly anticipated, and awards (Sportsmark and Activemark) are given to Partnerships and schools which achieve high levels of PE and sports participation, based on the survey data. References Department of Health 2006. Health Survey for England. Jotangia, Moody, Stamatakis and Wardle 2006. Obesity among children under 11. MORI/Sport England 2002. Young people and sport in England; trends in participation 1994 – 2002. DfES/DCMS 2002. Learning through PE and Sport – A guide to the PE, School Sport and Club Links Strategy. World Health Organisation 2007. The challenge of obesity in the WHO European Region and the strategies for response. Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case Ole Ugland Abstract. This chapter focuses on the challenge of providing citizens with relevant, timely and state of the art public services. In a situation where regular market mechanisms of supply and demand do not work, alternative tools have to be sought. Systematic analysis of client satisfaction with pub- lic services in Norway across the two last decades is such a tool and it re- veals distinct patterns in people’s preferences and assessments. While the population is highly satisfied with the living standards of their community, they are at the same time highly critical of their municipality as service provider. It is concluded that the core service elements should be focused on and, at the same time, communication should be used more directly as a way of adjusting people’s expectations. 1 Introduction Welfare services provided to the general population are the respon- sibility of state, county, and municipal authorities in Norway. Ser- vices are usually financed by general taxes or user fees. This situa- tion raises a number of challenges when it comes to the assessment of service coverage, quality and efficiency: • How can service needs best be targeted? • How can services be designed to meet citizen requirements? • How can services be provided in an efficient manner? 208 Ole Ugland With increasing private wealth, expectations and demands on public services are likely to increase as well. An “expectancy gap” is emerg- ing on the horizon: How can public services meet the demands of an increasingly affluent population at the same time as public sector budgets are facing significant stress? In this chapter we will shed some light on these issues with exam- ples from recent TNS Gallup research in the field of social services in Norway. In particular, the chapter will focus on public sector ser- vice clients and how their needs and assessments can be actively used in meeting the current challenges facing public-policy planning in periods of economic and social transition. 2 Client Satisfaction and Public Policy Design A characteristic feature of public services is the fact that they are designed in a non-market situation. Hence, their relevance, volume and quality typically cannot be assessed by market demand. At the same time, focus is increasingly directed towards client satisfaction in the design and assessment of public services, partly influenced by the debate on “corporate reputation” in the private sector (Rolland 2005). An anticipated increase in people’s expectations and demand for services must be focused on in a situation where average private wealth is steadily increasing. Citizens want to be seen as clients, as individuals with customer rights and this is presenting public ad- ministration with increasing challenges regarding information, qual- ity, flexibility and efficiency of service delivery (NOU 2000: 22, 61 and 89). Examples of this trend are recent efforts within public- sector administration to establish service quality indicators and ser- vice declarations. The same goes for an increasing focus on client- satisfaction surveys (Riksrevisjonen 2006). Other experts point to the fact that public administration is more than just provision of services. It also involves political manage- ment, and citizens are actively involved in the processes of produc- Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 209 ing these services (Aars 2000). As a result, client assessments in- clude elements of political expression and serve as an important cor- rective element in modern democracies. Let us take a closer look at the assessment of service quality. Service quality can be assessed by the users and their personal perception and evaluation. Such an assessment may in some instances run counter to other more “objective conditions” in the service produc- tion system. Hence, subjective quality assessments provide supple- mentary information to conventional and regular production indica- tors such as volume, expenses, number of staff etc. Expectations ----------------- = Satisfaction Experiences Fig. 1. Client Satisfaction Illustrated Client assessments are based on individual experiences seen in rela- tion to individual expectations. Expectations are influenced by pre- vious experiences, media reports, statements by municipal officers, rumours, reputation etc. Moreover, expectations are likely to vary between the various types of services used. Typically, services in- volving client and needs assessment (social support) will be rated differently from “pure” services such as libraries. The evaluation itself is fairly simple: representative samples of mu- nicipality inhabitants rate their local community and its various at- tributes along an evaluation scale ranging from 1 (very dissatisfied) to 6 (very satisfied). Individual assessments are summarised for each service, or service aspect, and scores are transposed to an aggregate satisfaction score ranging from 0 (total dissatisfaction) to 100 (total satisfaction). The interpretation is somewhat more intricate. Some services in- volve public supervision/control in addition to providing actual ser- 210 Ole Ugland vices to the population. Hence, an unconditional comparison of cli- ent-based assessments among the wide variety of municipal services is not straight forward. Nevertheless, benchmarking of services in general, as well as their various service components, may give valu- able insight into current service delivery strains. At the same time, we must be aware of the challenges we are faced with in terms of meeting client expectations. What kinds of services should be publicly provided? How can services be organised more effectively? First of all, we must realise that the public sector has its limitations compared to the private sector. Public services are typically faced with demographic imbalances and a shortage of labour, limited room for change due to strict regulations by central authorities, a shortage of resources to back up local reforms and a general lack of money. However, citizens and mass media still tend to neglect these struc- tural factors and expect a great deal from the public sector. Are we faced with an increasing “expectancy gap”, where booming private wealth confronts a public sector with stagnating public resources available to bridge it? 3 Satisfaction with Public Services in Decline? TNS Gallup has surveyed client satisfaction with regard to social services among the Norwegian population since the early 1980s. The surveys map people’s general assessments and personal ex- periences among users of the various services (or as family mem- bers of such users). 1 1 The survey actually combines a cross-national reference survey (15.000 respondents, conducted on behalf of the Central authorities) with local surveys conducted in various municipalities (each one usually surveying 1.000-2.000 inhabitants, conducted on behalf of the respective munici- pality). The national survey provides estimates at county level but the Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 211 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 Very dissatisfied 2 3 4 5 6 Very satisfied DK/NA Satisfaction score P e r c e n t o f p o p u l a t i o n Satisfaction Attachment Well-being Fig. 2. Satisfaction with Municipality as a “Place to Live”. Feeling of Attachment to and Well-Being in the Municipality. Population 16 Years and Older. Per Cent Most citizens are highly satisfied with their municipality as a place to stay and live, as illustrated in figure 2. A majority of the inhabi- tants express outright satisfaction with their municipality’s living standards (score 69) as well as with their own well-being (score 74). Most people also have a strong feeling of attachment to their mu- nicipality (score 67). These findings should not come as a surprise. It should be antici- pated that people living in a country rated by the UNDP as having the highest quality of life in the world (UNDP 2006) would be gen- erally satisfied. Moreover, variations among the 19 Norwegian counties are modest (from 67 to 71). The same applies to variations sample is not large enough to allow analysis at the level of each of the 352 municipalities. Hence, the national survey serves as benchmark for municipalities wishing to conduct their own survey, and allows each municipality to benchmark municipality services with ratings at the na- tional and municipal level, with municipalities of similar population si- ze, urban/rural location, enterprise structure etc. 212 Ole Ugland according to municipality size and industrial structure. The largest variations are seen in relation to the inhabitant’s age: the youngest people demonstrate lower levels of satisfaction with their municipal- ity (score 66) than their older companions (score 75). The next question is: is Norway really as well run as this overall pic- ture indicates? In order to gain a more accurate picture of people’s assessments, we have asked them to rate a number of indicators of living conditions in their municipality, such as neighbourhood safety, environmental qualities, cultural activities, coverage of social and health institutions etc. Among the 30 different living conditions listed, 24 are positively rated by more than half of the population. At the same time, more than half is “highly satisfied” with 8 conditions. Among the best-rated conditions we find “the scenery and the possi- bility of spending leisure time outdoors” (score 90), “neighbourhood safety” (score 83), “child-friendliness of the local neighbourhood” (score 76) as well as “the selection of shops and goods” (score 74). The lowest satisfaction scores are given for the municipality’s facili- tation of private enterprise establishments (score 44), coverage of institutions for old aged people (score 45), local transport (score 47) and the municipality tax rate (score 47). People’s general assessment of “public services available to the community” is rated in the middle of the overall living standards satisfaction index (score 56). This rating is in line with people’s as- sessment of public transport facilities, cinema/concert/theatre activi- ties, appearance of buildings in the municipality centre as well as the coverage of domestic services for elderly people. Hence, we are faced with a potential paradox: while people are generally satisfied with their living standards, they are at the same time highly critical of the local service providers! Again, the overall modest satisfaction with the social services does not necessarily reflect people’s experiences with every service. Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 213 26 20 * Social office 37 17 44 (48) [47] 704 29 19 Business office 32 20 47 (51) [49] 411 24 23 * Local roads (winter) 30 22 47 (41) [46] 13859 33 21 Children care institution 33 12 49 (46) [49] 381 23 30 Roads- in general 24 23 49 (46) [49] 13933 27 27 * Local roads (summer) 24 22 50 (46) [49] 13488 31 25 * Technical office 26 17 51 (51) [48] 2872 34 25 Council office 28 13 51 (55) [52] 1253 41 19 Mentally institutions 26 15 55 (49) [49] 244 33 30 * Main roads (winter) 17 20 56 (52) [56] 14036 39 23 * Swimming pool 21 16 57 (58) [56] 4754 33 33 * Main roads (summer) 15 19 57 (55) [57] 13886 28 38 * Public information 11 23 57 (55) [56] 13159 34 34 Social office 14 18 58 (58) [54] 1344 37 32 * Tax register 14 17 59 (60) [57] 4164 43 26 Psychological centres for pupils 17 14 60 (59) [52] 1041 43 23 Care for elderly 17 16 61 (57) [58] 1284 38 33 * Leisure time 11 18 61 (62) [58] 1491 48 24 * Nursery 15 14 63 (62) [62] 1641 44 32 * Elementary school (Level 2) 8 15 64 (64) [61] 1956 51 25 Housing for elderly daytime 13 11 65 (63) [61] 411 47 29 Day care (Level 2) 10 14 65 (66) [65] 1441 53 21 Home nursing 15 11 66 (63) [64] 1239 55 22 Agricultural office 13 10 66 (68) [65] 1005 47 32 ISport 7 14 66 (65) [62] 5874 50 28 Cultural office 8 13 66 (66) [61] 1432 55 25 * Waste disposal 8 11 69 (66) [66] 14152 55 28 * Arts exhibitions 5 12 70 (70) [68] 3847 59 25 * Elementary school (Level 1) l l 6 11 71 (70) [69] 3201 57 27 * Health centres 5 11 71 (73) [69] 3595 57 28 * Concert 5 11 71 (70) [67] 4938 59 27 Museum 3 11 72 (72) [70] 3821 61 25 * Theatre 5 10 73 (72) [69] 3632 63 23 Music-cultural school 5 8 73 (74) [73] 1081 64 22 * Doctor 6 9 74 (76) [70] 11206 69 18 * Drinking water 6 7 76 (75) [72] 13712 70 18 Cinema 5 7 76 (76) [72] 6429 66 23 Old age institutions 5 5 76 (77) [75] 667 71 21 * Library 2 6 78 (79) [76] 7018 71 18 * Physiotherapists 5 6 78 (79) [77] 3158 78 14 * Kindergarten 3 5 81 (79) [79] 2004 # of users SERVICE CLIENT SATISFACTION DISTRIBUTION INDEX 2004 2003 2000 National average 66 AVERAGE INDEX (services marked by *) 5+6 (Very satisfied) 4 3 1+2 (Very dissatisfied) SOCIAL SERVICES CLIENT SATISFACTION Fig. 3. Assessment of Services 2004/05. Per Cent and Average Satisfaction Score 214 Ole Ugland Asking people to assess 40 different municipal services reveals that this is clearly not the case, as illustrated in figure 3. On top of the ranking, we find kindergartens, physiotherapists, libraries, recreation centres for elderly people, cinemas and drinking water (above score 75). At the bottom end we find social offices, entrepreneurial of- fices, and general road conditions (below score 50). People’s attitudes to social services thus vary just as much as peo- ple’s ratings of their community living standards. The left-hand column in figure 3 reveals the number of users/respon- dents assessing each service. The horizontal bars display the distri- bution along the 1-6 point assessment scale, where the two top and bottom scores are collapsed. The columns to the far right display the corresponding index scores for years 2000, 2003 and 2004. An immediate question raised in this regard is whether we are faced with a temporary situation. Are people’s ratings simply influenced by current economic or political fluctuations, and would therefore change overnight with new realities? 61,2 60,9 61,5 59,4 56,7 56,8 57,1 56,1 55,8 54 56,3 58,6 59,9 58,4 57,6 56,8 57,3 57,4 56,9 55,9 56 56,3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 / 0 1 2 0 0 2 / 0 3 2 0 0 4 / 0 5 Year A v e r a g e s a t i s f a c t i o n s c o r e Municipality services Public services Fig. 4. Popular Satisfaction with Municipal Services, and with Public Ser- vices at Large, 1992-2004/05. Average Satisfaction Score Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 215 Examination of people’s satisfaction with the public services across the last decade reveals that this is not the case (figure 4). In fact, sat- isfaction is slowly, but steadily, declining from an average satisfac- tion score of 59 in 1992 to a score of 56 in 2005. Looking at a simi- lar indicator – people’s satisfaction with their municipal services – demonstrates the same, slightly more pronounced, trend (down from score 61 in 1992 to 56 in 2005). 2 The above analysis indicates a situation where people are generally satisfied with their living standards, but where public administration is not automatically credited for this. Contrary to expectations, to- day’s local administration is typically faced with a quite bad image. Only half of the population feels that municipal services fulfil their expectations, and only three in ten express commitment to their mu- nicipality as service provider. Putting the various images together (figure 5) reveals that the large majority of inhabitants are actually “detached” (both dissatisfied and non-committed to the municipality as service provider – 79%), while very few are “drivers” (highly satisfied and loyal to the municipality – 5%). Also the proportion of “residents” is rather small (satisfied with regard to their own experiences, but generally critical of the municipality – 15%). 3 2 The basic difference between the two indicators is that the first one rates all public services available in the municipality (including services ad- ministered the by the municipality and at state levels), the latter one tar- gets services administered by the local authorities only. Also, while the rating of the overall public services appears as one indicator among the wider set of municipality living-standards indicators, the rating of muni- cipality services is measured by a separate question. It may also be noted that the gap between the two ratings seen in the early 1990s, gradually closes throughout the decade, leaving them at the same level in 2005. 3 The image is revealed by a municipality TRI*M stakeholder-survey conducted among the general Norwegian population in 2005. The TRI*M index is a one number index of client satisfaction and client commitment, based on the four elements of overall performance satis- 216 Ole Ugland TRI*M Index 23 %base 869 %base 869 %base 897 (Weighted) Involved drivers 3% Drivers 8% Critics 2% Residents 17% Highly detached 32% Detached 73% Satisfaction Loyalty = 30,4 73% x 10 8% x 3 Resistance TRI*M Index 23 %base 869 %base 869 %base 897 (Weighted) Involved drivers 3% Drivers 8% Critics 2% Residents 17% Highly detached 32% Detached 73% Satisfaction Loyalty = 30,4 73% x 10 8% x 3 Resistance Fig. 5. Municipality Image 2005 (TRI*M Typology, N=869) 4 Facing the Challenge The question, of course, is how resources should be invested with the aim of improving public satisfaction with the social services. Who, or what, should be targeted and how? Social services vary by their user frequency, both with regard to the type of services pro- vided as well as with the characteristics of the population using them. Some services are provided for all, and are used by practically everyone: drinking water, maintenance and roads benefit 80-100% of the population. On the other hand, services provided for people with mental illness, entrepreneurial services, social institutions for children and housing for old aged people are used by only 2-3%. faction, trust in the local administration as service provider, rating of current services in relation to personal expectations and comparative as- sessment of one’s own community’s performance in relation to neigh- bouring municipalities. An index score of 23 is fairly low, compared for example with the average performance of Norwegian private companies (Index scores 50 to 70). Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 217 2 3 4 2 6 12 16 9 10 5 5 8 5 16 11 12 30 18 9 26 11 10 6 14 24 31 28 24 53 45 33 38 28 17 29 24 34 28 18 24 14 19 27 31 35 27 18 15 11 6 6 23 12 16 26 32 22 16 3 9 6 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Age P e r c e n t o f i n h a b i t a n t s None-user Very few Few Average Many Very many Fig. 6. User Frequency of Social Services in the Last 12 Months. Percent- age. 16 Years and Older Typically, user frequencies intensify towards “middle age” and then decline towards “old age”. 4 Hence, user frequency tends to vary with people’s position along the life cycle: the need for social services is at its peak during the “establishment phase” (35-49 years). At this stage people tend to “settle” and start family life; and the need to take care of both children as well as parents implies frequent contact with public authorities. Examination of the highest and lowest ratings of the municipality, regardless of sector and service components, reveals the following characteristics: Firstly, there is no direct relationship between client satisfaction and user frequency. Senior centres are among the least frequently used (7% of the population), while at the same time gen- erate the most highly satisfied clients (score 71). Cinemas, on the other hand, are generally associated with low ratings (score 61) de- spite being visited by six out of ten inhabitants. 4 The population is divided into categories of varying user frequency as follows: „Non-user”= No services, „Low”= 1-3 services, „Lower- middle”= 4-6 services, „Middle”= 7-9 services, „Upper middle”= 10- 12 services, „High”= 13 or more services. 218 Ole Ugland Secondly, overall satisfaction does not always imply unanimous sat- isfaction. Among the top ratings, we find a wide variety of charac- teristics. The scenery and recreation facilities are still the most popu- lar aspects of the municipality, followed by the well-being of children in kindergartens, the general access to shops and goods, the way kin- dergarten staff care for the children, neighbourhood safety etc. (scores 81-83). The contrast is striking when it comes to the rating of waiting lists for admission to institutions for old aged people, the general availability of such institutions, the availability of cultural activities for youngsters, the indoor environment of elementary schools etc. Thirdly, comparing assessments among inhabitants who have actu- ally used the various services reveals that they are more satisfied than the non-users (who base their judgement on their general image of the service). The differences are actually quite striking, and in the range of 10-15 points. In the large majority of cases (29 in 34 ser- vices), users are more satisfied than the non-users. Let us briefly return to the stakeholder survey presented above. This study allows us to go into depth with two types of services to gain a better impression of their critical satisfaction drivers. The figure combines three general assessments: the impact of each service component on the overall satisfaction with this service (hori- zontally), the importance of this component as stated by the user him/herself (vertically) as well as the institution’s service perform- ance (service satisfaction illustrated by black and white symbols). The image thus reveals four strategic focal points for the municipal- ity in the delivery of services. The highest importance is assigned by the “motivators” (strong effect on overall performance and high im- portance as stated by the users) in the upper right quadrant. Secon- dary focus is directed at the “hygienics” or “opportunities” fields (upper left, and lower right quadrants). Examining first the kindergartens case, one of the services showing the most satisfied clients, no outstanding strengths (black square boxes) are revealed. Staff competence and staff continuity are the Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 219 %base 869 %base 897 (Vektet) TRI*M Index 23 Effect on overall satisfaction S t a t e d i m p o r t a n c e High Low L o w H i g h Motivators Hidden opportunities Potentials?/Savings? Hygiene factors Performance Far above average Above average Far below average Below average Average Kindergarten A01 Kindergarten coverage in municipality A02 Possibility of flexible opening hours A03 Maximum tariffs are introduced A04 Number of children per employee A05 Indoor climate (air / ventilation) A06 The pedagogical standard A07 Infrastructural standard (in-door areas) A08 Outdoor safety A09 Staff skills A10 Continuity of staffing A01 A02 A03 A04 A05 A06 A07 A08 A09 A10 %base 869 %base 897 (Vektet) TRI*M Index 23 Effect on overall satisfaction S t a t e d i m p o r t a n c e High Low L o w H i g h Motivators Hidden opportunities Potentials?/Savings? Hygiene factors Performance Far above average Above average Far below average Below average Average Kindergarten A01 Kindergarten coverage in municipality A02 Possibility of flexible opening hours A03 Maximum tariffs are introduced A04 Number of children per employee A05 Indoor climate (air / ventilation) A06 The pedagogical standard A07 Infrastructural standard (in-door areas) A08 Outdoor safety A09 Staff skills A10 Continuity of staffing A01 A02 A03 A04 A05 A06 A07 A08 A09 A10 %base 869 %base 897 (Weighted) TRI*M Index 23 Effect on overall satisfaction S t a t e d i m p o r t a n c e High Low L o w H i g h Motivators Hidden opportunities Potential?/Savings? Hygiene factors Performance Far above average Above average Far below average Below average Average Public transport C01 Bus/train/tram arrives on time C02 Timimg is adjusted to your needs C03 Time tables are available at public stops/ busses/at the Internet C04 Fare is not too high C05 The driver is smiling and friendly C06 You will get a seat C07 You are convinced that the driver has received proper training C08 Inrastructure is clean and in proper condition C09 You are informed in case of delays or cancellations C10 Different transport facilities correspond C01 C02 C03 C04 C05 C06 C07 C08 C09 C10 %base 869 %base 897 (Weighted) TRI*M Index 23 Effect on overall satisfaction S t a t e d i m p o r t a n c e High Low L o w H i g h Motivators Hidden opportunities Potential?/Savings? Hygiene factors Performance Far above average Above average Far below average Below average Average Public transport C01 Bus/train/tram arrives on time C02 Timimg is adjusted to your needs C03 Time tables are available at public stops/ busses/at the Internet C04 Fare is not too high C05 The driver is smiling and friendly C06 You will get a seat C07 You are convinced that the driver has received proper training C08 Inrastructure is clean and in proper condition C09 You are informed in case of delays or cancellations C10 Different transport facilities correspond C01 C02 C03 C04 C05 C06 C07 C08 C09 C10 Fig. 7. Drivers of Popular Satisfaction with Kindergarten and Public Transport Services 220 Ole Ugland Turning to public transport, a service with many dissatisfied cli- ents, strengths and weaknesses are clearly revealed. The most vital component to this service is punctuality – and satisfaction in this regard is in fact quite high. The same goes for information regard- ing transport delays and the fare cost. Correspondence between the various transport facilities, availability of timetables at bus-stops and trust in the driver’s competence are rated as vital, although not decisive to overall satisfaction. The outstanding performance seen with regard to the driver’s competence should be maintained in future activities. Finally, some potential for cost-saving is revealed: the driver’s general attitude and the availability of seats are not seen as being of vital importance and are not the major satisfaction motivators in this service. Returning to our general findings, we have seen that each service is assessed by the quality of various general performance indicators: service availability, infrastructure quality, staff competence and cus- tomer relations, communication skills etc. Sector staff is usually the central element in the provision of per- sonal services. Most clients of social services are highly satisfied with staff skills (score 60-70). The same goes for their efforts when it comes to attentiveness and respectfulness, as well as general cus- tomer relations. Clients are generally less satisfied with waiting time, information provided to clients, the possibility to have their say during treatment, and are, in some instances, also less satisfied with the infrastructural quality. Looking at services that are universally available, satisfaction again increases with the age of the client. This implies that people of 50 years and older are usually also more satisfied than the aver- age population when it comes to the various service components, and that satisfaction is especially high among clients aged 67 years and older. Moreover, in some instances, people aged 35-49 years old are the least satisfied – this is also the age when user intensity is at its peak. Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 221 5 Future Directions It is hard to predict the future. Nevertheless, people constantly bring future expectations into consideration in their evaluations. Let us finally make a straight forward prediction of what might be the fu- ture satisfaction level of social services, and reveal what people themselves think about the future of their own community. Firstly, we have seen a small but systematic decline in the overall rating of municipal services during the last decades. What does this development tell us about future trends? As an illustration, the trend across the last two decades is prolonged towards 2020. 5 61,2 60,9 61,5 59,4 56,7 56,8 57,1 56,1 55,8 54 53,2 56,3 55,5 54,7 53,9 53,1 52,3 51,5 50,7 49,9 49,1 48,3 58,6 59,9 58,4 57,6 56,8 57,3 57,4 56,9 55,9 56 55,7 56,3 56 55,7 55,4 55,1 54,8 54,5 54,2 53,9 53,6 53,3 40 45 50 55 60 65 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 / 0 1 2 0 0 2 / 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 Year A v e r a g e s a t i s f a c t i o n s c o r e Municipality servicesr Public services Fig. 8. Popular Satisfaction with Municipal Services, and with Public Ser- vices 1992-2004/05. Projected Satisfaction 2005-2015. Average Satisfaction Score (the Vertical Scale Is Condensed to Highlight Variation) 5 The prediction is based on a simple linear projection, where the average yearly change in the period 1992-2005 is used to forecast annual yearly changes in the period 2005-2020. 222 Ole Ugland Simple linear extrapolation of current trends projects a continuation, or a slight levelling off, of the declining satisfaction trend. While satisfaction with municipal services demonstrates a steeper decline than the rating of public services taken together during the 1990s, by the end of the next decade the two lines might have crossed. Satis- faction with municipal services ends up at score 48 in 2015, while satisfaction with public services stops at score 53. In other words, we are faced with a further decline of 7 and 3 points respectively. Municipal services are faced with a potential 10 percentage-point overall satisfaction decline across two decades, unless the recent rise in 2004-05 indicates a turning tide! Secondly, while the above projection is based on a mathematical model, people were also asked to look 2-3 years ahead themselves, and to assess the future development of their municipality. Assessments vary by topic. The population is split in two when it comes to the overall satisfaction with municipal development at large (score 53). The rate is slightly lower than the assessment of the local population development (score 56), but higher than the as- sessment of local job creation potentials (score 44). Also regional variations between the various types of communities become more apparent: in particular the assessment of the population development and job creation initiatives is low in smaller and rural municipalities (scores 33-39). Thirdly, the role of the private sector as service provider has to be scrutinized. Examination of service providers reveals that people typically turn to private dentists, and to state-run elementary schools and institutions for the elderly. Kindergartens, doctors and physio- therapists are provided by a mixture of public and private suppliers. In general, users of private suppliers are more satisfied than users of public services (5-10 index points). Based on these experiences, which services are most suitable for privatisation? In a local municipality study of Ålesund, inhabitants were confronted with a list of 15 services and were asked to assess for which of these Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 223 they would like to be served by a private supplier – assuming that pri- vatisation does not imply price increase. For all services, except three, a majority of inhabitants find these as privatisation opportune. How- ever, privatisation is seen as a “very good idea” for one single service only – cleaning (of schools, and other public institutions). Other ser- vices seen as suitable for privatisation are kindergartens, mainte- nance/garbage collection and sporting arenas. Most people, however, prefer public institutions when it comes to mapping services, road maintenance, water/sewage and the running of old age institutions. Generally speaking, support in favour of privatisation is on the de- cline in this community across the past decade. This goes for all ser- vices except for cinemas and caretakers. The largest decline is seen for services to the elderly, such as institutional care, home nursing and food distribution. Finally, a major question raised is whether we are witnessing declin- ing satisfaction or rising expectations. The slight decline in the over- all satisfaction with public services observed across the last decade corresponds with a similar decline for most single services. A gen- eral implication is that the decline reflects an overall rise in popular demands and thus increasing service dissatisfaction, rather than de- clining service quality as such. If the declining satisfaction reflected decreasing service quality, variations between different kinds of ser- vices would probably have been more prominent. Again, the various drivers of client satisfaction discussed initially should be kept in mind. Clients and inhabitants differ to a large ex- tent with regard to their background and experience. Service envi- ronments differ both with regard to service type, component and organisational surroundings. Some elements cannot be explicitly regulated or controlled, such as customer relations, respectfulness during treatment, responsiveness to client demands, etc. These ele- ments also work in combination. For example, the impact of a nega- tive newspaper article may depend on the service client’s personal- ity, personal experiences with this same service, general attitude and opinion on the service field etc. Some clients will have a more gen- 224 Ole Ugland eral positive attitude than others, revealed above as variations among the oldest and youngest inhabitants. Hence, public information may be crucial: by dialogue, information, service declarations etc, mu- nicipal officials may “adjust” popular expectations to take into ac- count actual limitations in the delivery of a particular service. Summarising findings across municipalities, service types and com- ponents, three factors seemingly play a crucial role as driving forces of popular satisfaction: • High consent with regard to the core service elements is cru- cial to overall consent. Efforts to improve municipal services should always focus on the core service elements. • The different ratings between users and non-users of public services, indicates a significant communications gap. Raising overall public awareness about the higher satisfaction among service users than among non-users, may raise overall public satisfaction. • Users of public services typically base their judgement on factors other than the actual encounter with the service pro- vider: media reports and rumours as well as the user’s own mood and personality will influence public opinion in the en- counter with the service provider. Through dialogue, infor- mation and clearly defined service criteria, expectations among users of public services may be adjusted to current re- alities and practical limitations (budget constraints). Adjust- ing people’s expectations may be just as efficient in increas- ing popular satisfaction as pouring resources into improving the service as such. High and unrealistic expectations will lead to dissatisfied clients at any level of service quality. References Dræge, Martin. B & Ryssevik, Jostein (1994) Å lytte til innbyggerne og brukerne. Kommunenes Sentralforbund og Norsk gallup institutt (In Norwegian). Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 225 KRD (2001) Styringsinformasjon i kommunene: Kobling av informasjon om brukertilfredshet og KOSTRA-nøkkeltall. Håndbok Kommunal- og Regionaldepartementet. Mimeo. (In Norwegian). NOU (2000) Om oppgavefordelingen mellom stat, region og kommune. Norges Offentlige Utredninger nr. 22 (In Norwegian). Riksrevisjonen (2006). Gjennomføring av brukerundersøkelseer i forvalt- ningsrevisjonen. Veileder. Mimeo 09.10, 2006 (In Norwegian). Rolland, Asle (2005). Brukertilfredshet i offentlig sektor. Mimeo, Statistics Norway number 2005/32. (In Norwegian). UNDP (2005) Human Development Report 2005. OUP. Aars, Jacob (2000) Brukerundersøkelser som demokrativerktøy. Kommu- nenes Sentralforbund, Forskning. Oslo. (In Norwegian). Part 4: Asia on the Move The Role of Social Research in Development Programs: Examples from India U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji Abstract. This article, based on data from secondary sources such as DFID, UN agencies, World Bank, IFAD et al. aims at providing a perspec- tive of the transition that has been experienced in the Asian countries in terms of socio economic, demographic and human development indicators for the Asian countries in general, and India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and the Philippines in particular. It also illustrates the significant role social re- search has played in the process of transition with specific reference to India, the second most populous country and the largest democracy in the World. The analysis presented in the article clearly indicates the transition that took place in the Asian countries in terms of reduced population growth, increased longevity of males as well as females, reduced infant and child mortality levels, improvement in human development indicators and growth of the economy. The discussion throws light on the crucial role played by social research in the process starting with identification of needs to facilitate designing of programme interventions, monitoring the progress during the course of implementation, evaluation at the end of the specific interventions etc. 1 Introduction Asia’s immensities are not confined only to its population size and geographical area, but also encompass Asia’s role in world history. The flowering of global science and technology since the European 230 U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji Enlightenment is not an exclusively West-led phenomenon; it was impacted by international interactions, many of which originated far away from the Europe, and quite often in the Asia. The pace of economic progress has been much faster in Asia than elsewhere in the World in the last few decades. Not surprisingly countries have been learning from each other and correspondingly adjusting their respective economic policies. There is a recognition that Asia increasingly plays a central role on the international stage: as an economic driving force, and as a key partner in global efforts to address climate change, ensure peace and stability, and win the war against infectious diseases (UNCC 2007). This article is based on data from secondary sources such as DFID, UN agencies, World Bank, IFAD et al. The prime objective of this article is to provide a perspective of the transition that has been ex- perienced in the Asian countries in terms of socio economic and demographic indicators for the Asian countries in general, and India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and the Philippines in particular. The article also takes up a few case studies to illustrate the significant role so- cial research has played in the process of transition in the Asian countries with specific reference to India. 2 Transition in Asia Asia now constitutes one-third of the world economy. It has wit- nessed the expansion of cities and towns, and seen the rapid rise of a middle class, with increasing resources to save and spend. An in- creasingly educated, competitive and healthy workforce has enabled Asia to compete effectively in the global market place: People in the developing Asia no longer just aspire to development – they expect it. Asia represents the world’s best hope for meeting the MDGs.” (Haruhiko Kuroda, President, ADB). The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 231 Demographic Transition From 1950 and onwards, Asia has witnessed a dramatic demo- graphic transition affecting the population growth rate, deaths and births. It has implications for the environment, schooling, the posi- tion of women and social security. The salient changes involved in this transition include: • Reduction in the infant mortality rate by over two-thirds, from 184 infant deaths to 51 per 1,000 live births and an increase in life expectancy at birth by 25 years • Decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) by more than half, from around six children per woman to 2.6 • Decrease of 0.6 percentage points in the population growth rate During the period 1950–2004, mortality declined sharply in most Asian countries and this preceded the fertility decline by several decades in many cases. In the 1960s, Indian women were still having an average of around six births, despite a steady fall in mortality over the preceding decades. The crude death rate (CDR) dropped by two third from around 24 per 1,000 during the early 1950s to 8 per 1,000 in 2004 (Hussain et al. 2006). Life expectancy at birth in the region, which in the 1950s averaged a mere 41 years had by 2004 risen by 25 years, with a regional break- down of 28 years in East Asia, 24 in the South East and 23 years in South Asia. In 1950, no Asian country had a life expectancy of more than 75 years and only a few equalled or exceeded 60 years. In In- dia, life expectancy for males as well as females more than doubled in the 53 years from 1947 to the turn of the twenty first century – a rise that represents the greatest single improvement in the conditions of life in modern India. With a delay following the downward trend in mortality, the total fertility rate in Asia has dropped sharply from 6 children in the 1950s to 2.4 per woman in 2004. 232 U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji Almost all countries have experienced a decline but the extent of decline, its time pattern and the current rates vary greatly across countries and inter regional differences within some countries, such as India can be as large as those between the countries. While mortality decline affects all age groups, a decline in fertility initially affects the number of children only and thus has a major Table 1. Population Indicators Indonesia Philippines India Sri Lanka Population (Millions) 1990 178.2 61.1 849.5 17.0 2004 217.6 81.6 1079.7 19.4 2020 255.9 103.3 1332.0 22.9 Annual Population Growth Rate 1990-2004 1.4 2.1 1.7 0.9 2004-2020 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.0 Life Expectancy at Birth (Years) 1990 62 66 59 71 2004 67 71 63 74 Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births) 1990 60 41 80 26 2004 30 26 62 12 Under Five Mortality Rate 1990 91 62 123 32 2004 28 34 85 14 Total Fertility Rate 1990 3.1 4.3 3.8 2.5 2004 2.3 3.1 2.9 1.9 The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 233 impact on the age structure of the population. Mortality decline is preceded and accompanied by increase in child immunisation cover- age and decline in child malnutrition (UNICEF 2005). Economic Transition The economic growth in the four Asian countries in terms of GDP presented in Table 2 indicates rapid growth of GDP in India during 1990-99. The GDP growth rate was higher during 2000-2004 for all the 4 countries except Sri Lanka. Available data also highlights the growing role played by the private sector in infrastructure develop- ment in telecommunications. There has also been significant im- provement in infrastructure in terms of telephone and mobile users, personal computers users and Internet users (World Bank 2006). Table 2. GDP Growth Rate GDP Growth Rate (% per annum) Country GNP Per Capita (USD) 1999 1965-79 1980-89 1990-99 India 450 3.6 5.8 6.1 Sri Lanka 820 4.0 4.2 5.3 Indonesia 580 7.0 6.1 4.7 Philippines 1020 5.7 1.0 3.2 Poverty Reduction About 1.2 billion people in the world are estimated to consume less than a ‘standard’ dollar a day and are therefore in ‘dollar poverty’. Although the share of Asia and the Pacific Region in the world’s total poor declined by 8.6 percentage points between 1987 and 1998, this region still accounts for roughly two third of the total poor. Us- ing the headcount ratio, about two fifth of the population in South 234 U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji Table 3. Proportion Below Poverty Line Country 1990 2003 Indonesia 21 7 Philippines 20 14 India 42 31 Sri Lanka 4 1 Table 4. Prevalence of Rural and Urban Poverty Poverty Headcount Index Country/Year Rural Urban Rural-Urban Ratio Indonesia, 1987 16.4 20.1 0.81 Indonesia, 1990 14.3 16.8 0.85 Indonesia, 1996 12.3 9.7 1.27 Philippines, 1961 64.0 51.0 1.25 Philippines, 1988 53.0 23.0 2.30 Philippines, 1994 53.1 28.0 1.90 Philippines, 1997 51.2 22.5 2.28 India, 1957-58 55.2 47.8 1.15 India, 1977-78 50.6 40.5 1.25 India, 1987-88 38.9 35.6 1.09 India, 1990-91 36.4 32.8 1.11 India, 1994-95 34.2 28.4 1.20 India, 1995-96 35.4 27.3 1.30 India, 1997 34.2 27.9 1.23 Sri Lanka, 1985-86 45.5 26.8 1.70 Sri Lanka, 1990-91 38.1 28.4 1.34 Sri Lanka, 1985-86 31.7 16.4 1.93 Sri Lanka, 1990-91 24.4 18.3 1.33 The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 235 Asia were under the poverty line in 1998, and the incidence of pov- erty in East Asia and the Pacific was much lower at 15.3% including China, and 11.3% excluding China (World Bank 2006). The Millennium Development Goal 1 aims at halving, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 day. This is moving in the right direction. Table 3 indicates a sig- nificant decline in poverty in Indonesia and moderate decline in rest of the countries during 1990-2003. About 75% of the world’s poor work and live in rural areas, and pro- jections suggest that this will still be the case for over 60% of the poor in 2025 (IFAD 2002). Poverty is also basically a rural problem in Asia and the Pacific Region, as it is disproportionately concen- trated in the rural areas and between 80 and 90% of the poor are ru- ral in all the major countries of the region. Table 5. Human Development Indicators Country Indonesia Philippines India Sri Lanka 1990 2002 1990 2002 1990 2002 1990 2002 Youth (15-24 years) Literacy Rate - Male 99 99 97 94 73 84 96 95 - Female 93 98 97 96 54 68 94 96 Unemployment (%) - Male 3.5 8.1 7.9 9.4 - 4.4 10.1 6.2 - Female 4.5 12.9 9.9 10.3 - 4.1 19.9 14.7 Access to improved (%) Water source 71 78 87 85 68 86 68 78 Sanitation 46 52 54 73 12 30 70 91 236 U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji As indicated by the data presented in table 4, poverty declined in rural as well as urban areas of all the four countries but invariably, rural areas recorded higher levels of poverty than urban areas. Human Development Indicators Indonesia, Philippines and Sri Lanka have almost universal literacy among male as well as female youth. On the other hand, India ex- perienced significant improvement of male and female youth liter- acy. As regards employment, growing unemployment is a concern, while contribution of service sector for male and female employ- ment is on rise, which is a good sign (World Bank 2006). Access to basic services such as water and sanitation helps in im- proving the quality of life and health status of the people and access to these services improved in almost all the four countries though India has a long way to go in view of the rural –urban differentials. 3 Role of Social Research in India Research has been an integral part of the family planning/welfare programme in India for decades, as it will be demonstrated in the following. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS – Demographic Health Survey (DHS) in rest of the World) provides time series data on health, morbidity, mortality, contraception, infant and child mortal- ity, malnutrition, ante natal care, child immunisation etc. at national as well as state/province level. The NFHS, funded by USAID, UNFPA, UNICEF and other agencies, provided the necessary inputs for planning, designing and improving maternal and child health programmes and family welfare programmes. NFHS-1, 2 and 3 carried out during 1992-93, 1998-99 and 2005- 2006 across all the states and union territories of India, provide state specific estimates of socio economic, health, nutrition and demo- graphic indicators, such as: The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 237 • Infant mortality rate • Child mortality • Under five mortality rate • Maternal mortality rate • Age at marriage • Morbidity levels among children and adults • Malnutrition and Anaemia levels among women and children (on the basis of height and weight measurement and hemoglo- bin test) • Ante natal, natal and post natal care practices • Knowledge and use of family planning methods • Treatment seeking practices (eg diarrhoea, acute respiratory infections etc among children) • Child feeding practices • Knowledge about HIV/AIDS The NFHS also provides differentials in indicators by gender, region of the state, residence, gender, social class, standard of living etc. for each Indian state. TNS India’s Social Research Unit (SRU) was ac- tively involved in all the three rounds of NFHS. NFHS-3, for the first time provides HIV prevalence among adult men and women and this data is expected to provide inputs for strengthening the National AIDS Control Programme (NACP) im- plemented for effective control of HIV/AIDS in India, as the esti- mates available now are based on sentinel surveillance carried out at ante natal clinics and Sexually Transmitted Infection (STI) clinics. NFHS-1, 2 and 3 specifically provided inputs for designing, imple- menting and refining specific interventions/programmes aimed at better health and nutrition status of the women and children, with focus on the disadvantaged sections of the society. On the basis of 238 U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji the results relating to knowledge on various aspects (such as diar- rhoea management, family planning methods, ante natal care com- ponents, HIV/AIDS etc.), specific communication strategies and Information Education and Communication (IEC) programmes were designed and implemented in various Indian states. On the basis of results pertaining to ante natal, natal and post natal care and child care, specific programmes were designed and imple- mented to achieve the goals stipulated in the National Health Policy and National Population Policy. The existing programmes were re- fined to make them more effective. In view of the low levels of use of spacing methods of contraception, social marketing organizations such as Population Services Interna- tional (PSI), Hindustan Latex etc designed and implemented inter- ventions to make the spacing methods popular among the couples. The results are disseminated among donor agencies, Government departments at various levels, policy makers, research community, NGOs etc. As the National Family Health Survey provides state level estimates, need was felt to provide district level estimates and District level RCH (Reproductive and Child Health programme) Household and Facility surveys were carried out in all the districts of India. The District Level Household Survey (DLHS) and Facility Survey find- ings are used for effective implementation of the RCH programme at district level, with specific interventions pertaining to child immuni- zation, maternal health, use of family planning, child survival etc. The DLHS carried out as part of the RCH programme in India, funded by the World Bank, provided the inputs for effective imple- mentation of the RCH programme in various Indian states. These reports form the basis for funds allocation and programme initiation by the Union and State governments (through the Planning Commis- sion) as well as the multi lateral and bilateral donor agencies. The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 239 The facility survey provides the status in terms of infrastructure and human resources and this data proved to be useful for addressing problems relating to these aspects so that RCH programmes became efficient and more people friendly. The urban RCH programmes implemented in many urban areas including the urban slums were conceived on the basis of the DLHS results. TNS India was involved in the household as well as facility surveys. Andhra Pradesh Urban Slum Health Project (APUSHP) is one such urban RCH projects implemented in 192 slums across 72 towns of Andhra Pradesh, a South Indian state. The research studies carried out by TNS India as part of APUSHP include one year monitoring study and the endline survey. While the baseline and endline surveys, quantitative in nature, facilitated impact assessment of the project, the monitoring exercise, using a mix of qualitative and quantitative research techniques, provided feedback for mid course actions to make the project more focused towards achieving its goals and plan specific strategies to ensure behaviour change such as refined IEC and Behaviour Change Communication Strategies. Research carried to aid effective implementation of the Social Marketing programmes aimed at popularizing spacing methods of contraception and ORS- Oral Rehydration Salt- commissioned by social marketing organisations such as Population Services Interna- tional (PSI), Hindustan latex, Parivar Seva Sanstha etc. needs spe- cial mention. This research led to increase in use of spacing meth- ods as well as ORS. Child Development The specific areas pertaining to child development covered by social research include Operations Research studies and Mid term as well as Endline Assessment studies on ICDS- Integrated Child Develop- ment Services, the World’s largest programme in terms of coverage with services such as pre school education, nutrition supplementa- tion, health education, growth monitoring etc. 240 U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji The research findings facilitated mid course corrections in the ap- proaches, strategies and systems/procedures for project implementa- tion to make the project more efficient and useful for the young children. These programmes were funded by the World Bank, SIDA, UNICEF et al. Operations research studies on new born care practices at household as well as health facility level carried out by TNS for Johns Hopkins University and Care proved to be immensely useful for designing and implementing specific interventions aimed at reduction of infant and child mortality through improving the health and nutrition status of the new born. The studies conducted by TNS India on child immunisation, Pulse polio programme, neo natal mortality etc. for prestigious clients such as Path, UNICEF, and WHO proved to be vital for making the pro- gramme initiatives successful. The Operations Research study carried out by TNS India in Andhra Pradesh, a South Indian state, as part of the World Bank funded ICDS project had several research components such as a diagnostic study to identify the gaps, formulation and implementation of inter- ventions to bridge the gaps and baseline and endline surveys, short term monitoring visits to assess the progress of the interventions etc. The pre-post intervention design with the help of baseline and end- line survey was used to assess the impact of the interventions im- plemented in the areas of work routine and organisation, supervi- sion, joint coordination and MIS (Management Information System). Human Development The specific areas covered by the TNS India include literacy, non formal education, primary education, school attendance by students as well as teachers, infrastructure at schools, learning, teaching, attitudes towards education, child labour etc. with the studies commissioned by UNICEF, ILO, Foundations supported by Software corporate houses (Azim Premji Foundation and Byrraju Foundation), Ministry of Hu- man Resources Development/Government of India et al. The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 241 Poverty Alleviation Programmes The contribution of social research in the area of poverty reduction in India is demonstrated by the specific studies carried out by TNS India for the Ministry of Rural Development of the Union Govern- ment as well as the state governments as part of the poverty allevia- tion programmes funded by the Government of India, World Bank, UNDP et al. These studies provide the voice of the people who rep- resent the intended beneficiaries of the various poverty alleviation initiatives and thus facilitate mid course corrective action to ensure that the benefits reach the poorest of the poor. This becomes impor- tant in view of the Millennium Development Goal 1, which aims at reduction of poverty. Water and Sanitation The KAP (knowledge, attitude and practice) studies, communication strategy development studies, monitoring studies, and concurrent evaluation carried out by TNS India for UNICEF, Research Triangle Institute (RTI), Ministry of Rural Development, Department of Drinking Water Supply et al contributed immensely for making the water and sanitation initiatives more effective and useful for the beneficiaries. The Government of India gives a prestigious award, known as “Nirmal Gram Puraskar”, to selected village local gov- ernments across the country on the basis of the verification and rec- ommendations provided by the study conducted by TNS India at the behest of the Ministry of Rural Development. The studies carried out by TNS India in three Indian states (Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Orissa) in pre and post monsoon peri- ods/seasons for two consecutive years provide the information on child health and water quality. This time series data helps in assess- ing the impact of the interventions implemented in rural areas, with the financial support from the World Bank, aimed at improving wa- ter quality and access to potable water sources. 242 U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji 4 Case Study – Contribution of Research in HIV/AIDS Control in India HIV/AIDS is fast emerging as a major public health problem in In- dia and social research contributed in a major way in shaping the HIV/AIDS control programmes at national as well as state level. Specific details of some of the important studies conducted by TNS India are provided in the following. The Knowledge, Attitude and Practice (KAP) study on HIV/AIDS in Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan, provided KAP indicators with rural- urban and gender differentials, useful for designing programmes for awareness creation among the target groups. Some of these studies covered high risk population groups such as female sex workers, blood donors, truck drivers et al. The Behavioural Surveillance Survey (BSS) plays an important role in HIV/AIDS prevention due to the fact that the time series data on sexual behaviour generated through repeat waves helps in tracking the changes in behaviour as a result of the interventions implemented. The BSS has so far been carried out by TNS India in some of the high prevalent states such as Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu and other states such as Gujarat, Delhi etc for USAID, DFID, CARE and State AIDS Control Societies. The BSS provides (time series) data on knowledge, attitude and behaviour indicators, includ- ing STI (Sexually Transmitted Infection) incidence and treatment seeking practices. BSS enables assessment of impact of the targeted interventions implemented among the high risk groups (eg. female sex workers, male clients of female sex workers, men having sex with men, injecting drug users, truck drivers, college students, slum youth et al.) Most often BSS provides the inputs for designing new interventions or refining the ongoing interventions. The BSS also provides evidence for the differentials in impact of the interventions by target group and district so as to address the specific issues. For instance differentials in use of condom with The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 243 regular, commercial and non-commercial partners help in formulat- ing strategies for condom promotion to ensure consistent use of condom irrespective type of sex partner. Similarly, analysis of the data on differentials in STI treatment practices among brothel based and street based sex workers provides basis for chalking out relevant strategies for ensuring proper treatment practices among the sex workers community. The Integrated Behavioural and Biological Assessment (IBBA) carried out by TNS India in two of the HIV/AIDS high prevalent Indian states provides the behavioural as well as biological indica- tors including HIV prevalence among the high risk population sub groups such as female sex workers, clients of female sex workers, men having sex with men, injecting drug users et al. The prime purpose of the IBBA was to assess the impact of the target inter- ventions implemented among these target groups through repeated waves of the survey. The mapping studies carried out in different Indian states by TNS India enable the HIV/AIDS Control programme managers to decide about the geographical areas to be covered for the target interven- tions for each of the high risk groups by providing data in terms of geographic locations and estimated size at each location. Thus this facilitates prioritization of the locations for implementing new target interventions or scaling up of the existing ones. The study carried out in prisons across the state of Andhra Pradesh by TNS India to understand the high risk behaviour of the prisons inmates and prison staff facilitated the prioritization, on the basis of high risk behaviour, of the prisons for scaling up the interven- tion programmes as part of the DFID funded Partnership for Sexual Health Programme (PSHP). The study provided the differentials in risk behaviour by type of prison (central, district, sub, open, women etc.) and type of inmates (convicts, long term and short term under trials etc). 244 U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji 5 Conclusions The results discussed in the preceding sections highlight the rapid transition that took place in most of the Asian countries in general, and India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and the Philippines in particular in terms of : • Fertility reduction • Mortality reduction • Improvement in child immunisation • Decline in child malnutrition • Increase in longevity of people • Decline in population growth rate • Improved access to basic services such as safe drinking water and sanitation • Improved male and female literacy levels • Decline in income poverty • Growth of GDP • Increasing role played by the service sector in providing em- ployment • Increased access to technology through telephone/mobile and internet connectivity and personal computers • Increasing role played by the private sector in infrastructure development There is ample evidence for the significant and decisive role played by the social research studies carried out by TNS India’s Social Re- search Unit besides other research agencies/institutes on behalf of various donor agencies and Government Departments in the transi- tion process. The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 245 In a country like India, inhabited by more than one billion people with rich socio economic and cultural diversity, social research plays a crucial role as the issues that need to be addressed and strategies that need to be worked out vary from state to state and even within a state. In fact, there are over 70 distinct Socio Cultural Regions in the country and each is truly different from the other on demographic, socio-economic and cultural characteristics. In view of this diversity across India, national studies covering many of the Indian states with a robust scientific research design hold the key for improving the status leading to transition. Social research in India represents the “Voice of People” cutting across issues pertaining to socio economic, demographic, health, and development sectors. The absence of reliable official statistics (with the decadal census being an exception) makes the role of so- cial research in a democratic country like India more important so as to get an understanding of the status and issues during the inter censual period. References DFID 2006. Asia 2015 Promoting Growth, Ending Poverty Conference Report, ADB, The World Bank Hussain A, Cassen R and Dyson Tim 2006. Demographic Transition in Asia and Its Consequences, Asia 2015 Conference IFAD 2002. Assessment of Rural Poverty – Asia and the Pacific The World Bank 2006. World Development Indicators Tsui AO 1996. Family Planning Programs in Asia : Approaching a Half Century of Effort in Asia Pacific Population Research Abstracts, Num- ber 8, April 1996, East West Center UNCC 2007. Asian Immensities Key Note Address by Prof Amartya Sen UNICEF 2005. The State of the World’s Children, Childhood Under Threat A Framework for Social Development Assessment Daniel Lindgren and John Budd Abstract. This chapter presents a new model of thinking for evaluating so- cial development work. The social assessment framework put forward is based on TNS stakeholder management model, TRI*M, and focuses on the critical area of how aid and donor organizations can assess the effectiveness of social development programs. The Millennium Development Goals have opened up a two way street between donors and beneficiaries and has pro- vided for a need to look at social development assessment from a new per- spective. The reader is taken through a journey of how the model came about, challenges faced during the process, and a vision for how the model will be used in the future. The two basic components of the model, the Pro- gram Effectiveness Index and the TRI*M Grid for understanding program drivers, are explained. A case study covering the Tsunami relief effort in Aceh, where the model was used for the first time, is included as an example of how TNS was able to deliver insight and clear direction in an otherwise complex environment. A client perspective is also provided both in terms of needs assessment and actions taken by UNICEF as a result. The chapter concludes with a reflection of what the future holds and the opportunity to apply the framework in other countries as well as for different situations. 1 The Behavioural Change Challenge Behavioural change is probably the single most difficult objective communicators are asked to undertake. In the private sector it is an area which falls under marketing, and in the context of development 248 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd it could also be called social marketing. Nor is behavioural change communication confined to the developing world. Countries at all levels of development undertake mass awareness campaigns in order to influence behaviours, as does the private sector. In the private sector a huge research industry has developed to pro- vide consumer insights and answers about behaviours. It is the same in the development context. Consumer research is called KAP sur- veys – knowledge, attitude and practice. But such research is often narrowly focused and too often a one-way street. Impact studies are conducted but mainly to inform communicators about the effective- ness of their specific campaigns and messages. How beneficiaries regard the campaign and the issue as a whole and what they think is beneficial or even needed in the broader context of the services pro- vided is often overlooked. So the question is, how can we use the beneficiary’s perceptions of the effectiveness of a campaign in order for it to be more effective? In other words start a dialogue – make the beneficiary an active participant in the process. In Indonesia, UNICEF stumbled into this accidentally when ensur- ing that efforts in the reconstruction of tsunami ravaged Aceh were effective and being well received by the beneficiaries, and could be reported to donors around the world. Having successfully conducted research in 2004-2005 and then in 2005-2006, it was decided to ap- ply the same framework to assess public awareness campaigns UNICEF was conducting on avian influenza in 2006-2007. 2 An Idea Was Formed Looking at the social research scene in Indonesia, most work that TNS and other international research agencies carry out is with large aid and donor organizations or through consultancies servicing these clients in a broader context. Polling through media remains under developed or is served by local agencies on a much smaller scale. The same applies to government work and means revenue streams from these alternative sources remains very limited. But then again, A Framework for Social Development Assessment 249 Indonesia, the world’s largest archipelago as well as the most popu- lous Muslim nation, presents plenty of work opportunities for donor organizations. Working closely with several of the world’s most prominent aid and donor agencies, one of the main challenges that is evident is the need for good program evaluations. Aid organizations in par- ticular, large and small, receive a large proportion of their funding for specific projects. As with any commercial operator aid organi- zations often have to compete for this, often limited, pool of funds. There is a tender process and the aid organization has to present a strong case for their project in terms of how it will contribute to the betterment for beneficiaries as well as how results will be evalu- ated. Donors, like investors, would reasonable like to know that the money was well spent. Hence, some, but far from all, social devel- opment projects have a research component for evaluation. Ideally there should be a baseline measure followed by an impact measure. But more often than expected perhaps, the evaluation is conducted internally in sometimes very ambiguous and arbitrary circum- stances. Audits are part of daily life in commercial operations (Scharioth, Huber 2003). But anyone dealing with large aid organi- zations will be aware of the frantic atmosphere in the client’s office at the end of a large project. Yes, the auditors are coming and eve- ryone is scrambling to come up with a good story to show that their contribution was indeed worth while. Having met with many pro- gram staff across an array of different organizations it is amazing to see their commitment to their work. Not to mention the field operators, who are often tucked away in the bush somewhere with- out access to modest, or even basic, conveniences. Their inspira- tion stems from caring about people in need and because they themselves believe a difference can be made. At the end of the day it would often be unfair to question their commitment to the cause, but donors want proof of their work in terms of measurable out- comes. Key Performance Indicators or KPIs is a term with which aid organizations are quickly becoming more familiar. Aid organi- zations are slowly beginning to realize that even the warm and 250 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd fuzzy world of social development is becoming subject to account- ability. No doubt many resist this but there seems to be no escape. It has been said that what is not measured cannot be managed. How true it is and perhaps one could argue that common sense also dic- tates this. But it has also been said that common sense is not com- mon. In the case of social development work what one has to re- member is that these are no ordinary projects, it is very complex often involving multiple organizations seeking to assist beneficiaries from impoverished, difficult to reach regions under adverse circum- stances. From a research perspective, measurement becomes a daunting task both in terms of sampling as well as developing suit- able survey instruments. 3 Developing a Social Assessment Framework Stakeholder Management is an area of expertise within TNS and those working in this field have a number of models and tools to their disposal. The question was whether appraisal of social develop- ment work can be viewed as a stakeholder management problem? Secondly, would it be possible to apply one of TNS’s more popular models called TRI*M? The power of the TRI*M model is not so much in it’s statistical rigor, nor the fact that it has been subjected to numerous validations across all sorts of markets and industries (Huber, Scharioth, Pallas 2004). No, the attractiveness really lies in its flexibility and being able to strike a cord with clients in the most varied of circumstances. Still, the area of social development re- search seemed like a tough challenge but still possible, somehow. At the outset of developing the social assessment framework, the vision was clear. The framework should help to identify specific focal points that can help aid and donor organizations to achieve enhanced results. From a client perspective, the following benefits were seen to be relevant: A Framework for Social Development Assessment 251 • To have the ability to map stakeholder needs geographically • To focus on specific beneficiaries or stakeholder groups, in a more relevant way • To be able to prioritize program initiatives and activities • To assess the deployment of resources & effort • To benchmark performance across activity areas In order to deliver on those benefits, the social assessment frame- work itself must adhere to some basic guidelines. This was neces- sary to ensure the framework can be adopted in a local as well as global context. • Provide for a consistent format across: Time, communities/ regions, programs, participating organizations • Accessible & easily comparable understanding to facilitate learning and dissemination of results • Build pro-active thinking in the form of a red-flag or early warning mechanism • High level insight for strategy development down to specific task related information for program management But how is social development work related to corporate reputation? As has been pointed out, the truth is that many aid and donor organi- zations are not able to effectively measure the performance of social development programs. Within the area of corporate reputation, ef- fective tools have been developed over the years to allow organiza- tions to becoming more knowledgeable about their own industry (O’Gorman, Pirner, 2006). Understanding ones corporate reputation provides for a holistic picture of how different stakeholder groups view an organization as well as how the company should align its resources to communicate more effectively (Hermann 2007). It is all about building awareness, changing attitudes, and ultimately have people behave is such a way that it benefits the company. The same 252 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd applies to social development work, which in most part is about making people aware and changing the way they think and behave. Looking at the stakeholders themselves beneficiaries are at the core, rather than customers. And just as corporate reputation is dependent on several stakeholder groups, social development programs rely on support from multiple parties often including various government departments. Communication is not about selling a product or ser- vice but rather to inform and educate as an end goal (selling ideas). Whether in a commercial or social context, media spending can be substantial and media channels employed can be similar. It is some- times necessary to develop peoples’ mind-sets by changing their attitudes. Just a like a mining company wants people to be forgiving towards its impact on the environment, a social development pro- gram on AIDS wants people to acknowledge there are people who live with this decease and they should not be ignored. Ultimately and ideally, social change is about engagement through participation rather than persuasion. But the ultimate goal of a social development program is not to build a reputation for the organization behind the program but rather for the program itself. 4 Program Effectiveness Index The first basic building block of the social assessment framework is the Program Effectiveness Index (PEI). The idea behind the index is to capture the relevant elements that help to determine perceived effectiveness of a social development program. The table below shows the original TRI*M index dimensions for corporate reputation together with the modified dimensions for program effectiveness. The relevance behind each of the index dimensions can be high- lighted with a simple example. The Avian Influenza that first ap- peared in Indonesia in early 2006 has been subject to a lot of atten- tion globally. A collaborative effort is currently in place to inform the public in Indonesia about its risks, how to avoid contracting the virus, and how to prevent it from spreading further. First of all, are A Framework for Social Development Assessment 253 Table 1. TRI*M Index Dimensions Corporate Reputation Program Effectiveness Overall reputation Extent of effort behind the program Emotional Appeal Emotional engagement Favourability towards the organization Favourability towards the program Trust in the organization Trust in what is being communicated Competence Effective engagement Financial or economic success Success of the program to convince people to take action Products & service quality Quality of program communication people aware and do they see a concerted effort behind the Avian Influenza program? This does not only involve UNICEF and the government of Indonesia but several other organisations, all working to combat the threat of a possible pandemic. Secondly, are people emotionally engaged? In other words, do they support the program and do they feel that what is being communicated is relevant and make sense? Finally, there needs to be a link to behavioural change through effective engagement. So, is there a sense that the Avian Influenza program is working in terms of changing behaviour and is communication of good quality? Having a standardised, independently measured PEI has an impor- tant advantage in that it can be used across countries and programs. This allows for effective benchmarking, a tool which is becoming more and more essential for global companies including aid and donor organisations. Further, the PEI allows for flexibility in terms of diagnosing the level of performance across time, geographical areas, stakeholder groups, and time. So it is a very effective moni- toring tool and provides for a quick overview of where a particular program is working and where it is having less impact. 254 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd 5 Case Study – Aceh Tsunami Relief The 2004 Tsunami disaster was an event that captured the attention of the entire globe. Indonesia had the biggest death toll with some quarter of a million people confirmed dead or missing. No less than 385,256 people were displaced, loosing their home, family members or both (UN Information Management Service 2005). The table be- low shows some of the worse hit regions. The 8.6 magnitude earth- quake on the island of Nias, that struck shortly after the Tsunami made matters worse. The disaster was met by unprecedented support from the international community and it has been estimated that some 200 organizations set up base in Aceh alone to assist in the relief effort. The amount of donations contributed from the interna- tional community was so significant that it far exceeded what is needed for the reconstruction effort. Yet, the traumatized region is still struggling to get back on its feet. This may seem odd but the fact is, having excess funds only adds to the problem, especially in Indonesia, one of the world’s most notorious nations for corrup- tion. Too much money brings out the worst in people and means the relief effort has in many parts been brought down on its knees with very little progress, especially in the first 12 months (TNS Indonesia 2006). Having so many organizations operating simulta- neously adds to the complexity and coordination alone has become a gigantic task. Amongst other organizations operating in Aceh and Nias, UNICEF is playing a key role in the rebuilding of the disaster struck area. Fo- cusing on the areas of health, education, water & sanitation and child protection, UNICEF has a fair challenge in coordinating its own ac- tivities. Research carried out by TNS in 2005 confirmed the notion that the relief effort, whilst moving in the right direction, was not moving ahead quickly enough. Feedback from beneficiaries was therefore needed to understand their perceptions as to how effective the relief effort has been. The brief from UNICEF was simple, what are the red button issues that IDPs want to see improved immedi- ately? With this brief, the first opportunity to test the new social as- sessment framework had materialized. A Framework for Social Development Assessment 255 Table 2. Tsunami Figures in Indonesia Regions hit by Tsunami Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) Aceh Besar 45,269 Nias 30,307 Aceh Barat 25,137 Aceh Jaya 22,306 Banda Aceh 19,944 Pidie 19,279 Nias Selatan 11,893 Total 174,135 The performance effectiveness index was able to show that perform- ance varied across regions. The index showed that the more easily reached regions, Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar, had the worst per- formance ratings whereas Aceh Barat and Aceh Jaya, some of the most badly hit remote regions, had significantly better performance ratings. However, when sharing the results with UNICEF staff in the respective regions said they were not surprised. Banda Aceh as the capital of the province has served as a hub for much of the relief ef- fort. IDPs in this area have had relatively easy access to assistance without having to rely on their own efforts. Whilst the devastation was large, many parts of Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar were unaf- fected and meant IDPs were not totally stranded. This led to IDPs be- coming somewhat complacent. In contrast, more remote regions have had relatively limited resources to begin with and meant that IDPs and their local communities had to put in significant effort to rebuild their lives, to survive. This logic became evident when looking at the extent to which IDPs have developed a mind-set that was coherent with the program objectives outlined by UNICEF. In short, an ex- amination was done in relation to IDPs knowledge, attitude and be- haviour to see how developed their mind-set was in order to cope and improve their livelihood. 256 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd 71 68 47 42 41 41 40 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aceh Barat Aceh Jaya Nias Selatan Nias Pidie Banda Aceh Aceh Besar P e r f o r m a n c e E f f e c t i v e n e s s I n d e x Developed Underdeveloped Developing or polarized Mind-set of IDPs 71 68 47 42 41 41 40 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aceh Barat Aceh Jaya Nias Selatan Nias Pidie Banda Aceh Aceh Besar P e r f o r m a n c e E f f e c t i v e n e s s I n d e x Developed Underdeveloped Developing or polarized Mind-set of IDPs Developed Underdeveloped Developing or polarized Mind-set of IDPs Fig. 1. Performance Effectiveness Index Figure 1 clearly shows that IDPs in Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar had a much less developed mind-set compared to Aceh Barat and Aceh Jaya. In other words, there was a very strong association between program performance and the actual ability of IDPs to cope and im- prove their livelihood. Apart from understanding performance across regions, UNICEF wanted to understand what activities were actually driving program performance. This brings us to the second part of the social assess- ment framework, the TRI*M Grid. In addition to the PEI, a number of specific performance attributes (e.g. program activities, commu- nication channels, etc) are independently measured. In order to un- cover the more important attributes in the minds of beneficiaries, one need to go beyond what is simply stated as being important, by making a distinction between must have factors and those that truly drive program performance. The Grid used for this analysis has three dimensions as shown in the diagram below. The first two dimensions A Framework for Social Development Assessment 257 „ 1. Stated importance of attributes Importance on a given attribute is defined on the basis of how important it is rated in relation to all other attributes. As such, there will always be relatively important and relatively unimportant aspects to consider. „ 2. Perceived performance on each attribute Performance on a given attribute is defined on the basis of how it is rated in relation to all other attributes assessed in the questionnaire. As such, there will always be relative strengths and relative weaknesses. „ 3. Impact that attributes have on the PEI This is the calculated correlation between the individual attribute and the program effectiveness index. Strong correlation means the attribute will have relatively more impact on perceived performance as a whole. Hygienic Motivators Potentials?/ Savers? Hidden Opportunities Impact on Program Effectiveness Index S t a t e d I m p o r t a n c e First dimension Second dimension Performance Far above average Above average Far below average Below average Average Third dimension „ 1. Stated importance of attributes Importance on a given attribute is defined on the basis of how important it is rated in relation to all other attributes. As such, there will always be relatively important and relatively unimportant aspects to consider. „ 2. Perceived performance on each attribute Performance on a given attribute is defined on the basis of how it is rated in relation to all other attributes assessed in the questionnaire. As such, there will always be relative strengths and relative weaknesses. „ 3. Impact that attributes have on the PEI This is the calculated correlation between the individual attribute and the program effectiveness index. Strong correlation means the attribute will have relatively more impact on perceived performance as a whole. Hygienic Motivators Potentials?/ Savers? Hidden Opportunities Impact on Program Effectiveness Index S t a t e d I m p o r t a n c e First dimension Second dimension Performance Far above average Above average Far below average Below average Average Performance Far above average Above average Far below average Below average Average Third dimension Fig. 2. Importance of Program’s Attributes and Perceived Performance include claimed importance of program attributes and perceived per- formance by the program to deliver on the same attributes. The third dimension looks at the impact each attribute has on the PEI. The position of the attributes on the Grid helps to understand the rele- vance of each activity in the minds of IDPs. Based on the three dimensions in the Grid, attributes can be classi- fied into four groups depending on their location within the Grid (i.e. Motivators, Hygienic, Hidden Opportunities and Potential/Savers). The position on the Grid determines the relevance of each attribute. The Motivator quadrant is the area to observe most closely as any activity within this area is seen by beneficiaries to be a key driver for program effectiveness. Hygienic, on the other hand, are activities that IDPs expect to see and could relate to basic survival needs. Hidden Opportunities represent activities that can make a difference even though the IDPs themselves don’t regard them as overly important. Finally, the Potential/Savers quadrant highlights activities that ac- cording to IDPs are at the bottom of the priority list. Attributes in this quadrant should be assessed in terms of being essential to the pro- gram and sometimes further education of beneficiaries is necessary. 258 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd Potentials/savers: Examine your engagement and monitor. Review activities and resources and make sure not to over invest. Motivators: Build on strengths and eliminate dangerous weaknesses! Use strengths in order to communicate! Hidden opportunities: Look for new opportunities to develop and exploit them, especially if they are strengths. Hygienic: Maintain performance level. These items are expected by stakeholders so must ensure performance meets an acceptable standard. S t a t e d I m p o r t a n c e High Low L o w H i g h Motivators Hidden Opportunities Potentials?/Savers? Hygienics Communication Axis: What should be communicated Action Axis: Where should be acted upon Impact on Program Effectiveness Index Potentials/savers: Examine your engagement and monitor. Review activities and resources and make sure not to over invest. Motivators: Build on strengths and eliminate dangerous weaknesses! Use strengths in order to communicate! Hidden opportunities: Look for new opportunities to develop and exploit them, especially if they are strengths. Hygienic: Maintain performance level. These items are expected by stakeholders so must ensure performance meets an acceptable standard. S t a t e d I m p o r t a n c e High Low L o w H i g h Motivators Hidden Opportunities Potentials?/Savers? Hygienics Communication Axis: What should be communicated Action Axis: Where should be acted upon Impact on Program Effectiveness Index S t a t e d I m p o r t a n c e High Low L o w H i g h Motivators Hidden Opportunities Potentials?/Savers? Hygienics Communication Axis: What should be communicated Action Axis: Where should be acted upon Impact on Program Effectiveness Index Fig. 3. Level of Relevance of Each Attribute Looking at the 6 core program components it can be seen that UNICEF is perceived to perform well in the areas of Education and Health & Nutrition. The PEI for these activities is higher than the overall PEI of 49. The remaining program areas have a PEI lower than the average. It is interesting to note that child protection is gen- erally not seen to be important by IDPs. Nor does it have any sig- nificant impact on program effectiveness. It is likely that more edu- cation is needed in this area and improved access to information is needed to achieve this effectively. For each program component a leverage score has been calculated which can range from 0-10. Lev- erage scores help to identify which program activities have the high- est impact on program effectiveness, and therefore indicate the rele- vance for taking action. The leverage metric is intended to provide decisional support regarding resource allocation to different pro- grams. Both Education and Health & Nutrition generate high lever- age for UNICEF probably because these activities are the most visi- ble for IDPs. On the other hand, Water & Sanitation represents a fundamental, basic need not currently met. This area became the single most important opportunity for improvement. It is also clear that the local Government in Aceh, the most important collaboration partner for UNICEF, may not be pulling their fair share of the work. A Framework for Social Development Assessment 259 PEI Deviation by from overall Program activity activity PEI Leverage 1. Education 54 +5 6 2. Health & Nutrition 56 +7 7 3. Water & Sanitation 44 -5 3 4. Child protection 46 -3 3 5. Collaboration efforts 46 -3 3 6. Information access 45 -4 5 Overall PEI = 49 S t a t e d I m p o r t a n c e High Low L o w H i g h Motivators Hidden Opportunities Potentials?/Savers? Hygienics Impact on Program Effectiveness Index 3 1 2 4 6 5 PEI Deviation by from overall Program activity activity PEI Leverage 1. Education 54 +5 6 2. Health & Nutrition 56 +7 7 3. Water & Sanitation 44 -5 3 4. Child protection 46 -3 3 5. Collaboration efforts 46 -3 3 6. Information access 45 -4 5 Overall PEI = 49 S t a t e d I m p o r t a n c e High Low L o w H i g h Motivators Hidden Opportunities Potentials?/Savers? Hygienics Impact on Program Effectiveness Index 3 1 2 4 6 5 Fig. 4. Table Overall Performance of Programs Activities 6 UNICEF View on Outcome The development sector is a fragmented and complex beast, even within organizations. From the perspective of a communicator tar- geting both beneficiaries and donors, the research is an independent, valuable and measurable indicator of how work was perceived in Aceh. However the research was a little of a surprise for program staff and Government counterparts who by and large had never been subjected to beneficiary assessments of their effectiveness. They did grasp the survey’s importance and at this point are still digesting the points made. It is a work in progress. But perhaps the most important perspective on the research was UNICEF’s decision in Indonesia to take it further. The looming global catastrophe of an influenza pandemic was the motivating force – and Indonesia was bird flu central. Avian influenza (H5N1) is one of the very few examples of a development issue which af- fects everyone, no matter where we are – bird flu doesn’t stop at borders, and it pays no regard to where you come from – poor coun- try or rich country. So what people think about bird flu in the remote 260 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd distant islands of Indonesia is going to directly affect us all no mat- ter where we are because the odds are that it will be in Indonesia or another Asia country that the virus could mutate. It is globalization by the most unwelcome of definitions. It links the donor to the beneficiary in a challenge which will leave neither un- touched. If the Governments and agencies involved in combating AI in Indonesia, or Thailand, Vietnam or China succeed it will save lives everywhere. This thought motivated the Japanese Government to provide a staggering USD 40 million grant to UNICEF to conduct a global public awareness campaign to prevent a pandemic in 2006. About USD 3.5 million was allocated to Indonesia. The challenge was enormous. The poultry industry is massive and pre industrial. About 1.2 billion poultry in 17,000 islands spread across three time zones. Eighty percent of Indonesians raise poultry in their own backyard in a free range environment. It is an essential economic and nutrition issue for these people. Little wonder that AI was endemic throughout the country. From UNICEF’s perspective it was also an issue killing young peo- ple and children, as looking after chickens was a chore for them. Fig. 5. Outbreaks Among Poultry (in Red) A Framework for Social Development Assessment 261 In early 2006 we were faced with almost universal ignorance and a complete black hole of reliable, usable information about the dis- ease. Take this from early formative research undertaken in Indone- sia by USAID (USAID 2006). “I’ve heard about bird flu from the media”. “To be honest, I do not really understand about bird flu” “It only happens on TV” “Our community isn’t too concerned about AI” Under enormous pressure to do something, anything to improve public awareness the research from USAID was used to prepared a national mass media campaign. It was hurried and not ideal because it was not possible to obtain answers to a million questions about the issue. TNS was contracted to conduct a fast and focused survey of beneficiaries in September, 2006 as the mass media campaign was starting. That research confirmed that the USAID research was accu- rate and that the campaign was succeeding in providing four key prevention messages, cook, separate, report and wash. The above figures are a percentage of the 500 people surveyed an- swering a question about whether they had seen an AI prevention message on television (TNS 2006). As you can see the survey clearly reflects the mass media messages being disseminated. The first two were PSAs already being aired prior to and during the survey Table 3. Program Effectiveness on Prevention Messages Public Service Announcement (PSA) Effective Reach (%) Cook 63 Separate 69 Report 44 Wash 25 262 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd period. The third advertisement had been broadcast for about a week and the fourth had just started to be shown. The mass media cam- paign reached well over 100 million people and ran in two blocks, September/October 2006 and February/March 2007. All fairly crude but combined with social mobilization and advo- cacy campaigns in high risk areas everyone felt quietly confident that prevention information was out there and that it had reversed the overwhelming ignorance on the issue. But could any changes in behaviour be seen? Yes, in terms of institutional change. The Indo- nesian Government at all levels was focused on the issue but what of the individual? TNS was commissioned to conduct an impact survey using the newly developed methods presented here. The results confirmed what everyone on the campaign instinctively un- derstood. The survey stated that: Overall the AI initiative has come off to a relative good start. The perception about the initiative so far is much better compared to the Tsunami Relief Effort in Aceh for example. However, regional differences do exist and there is a strong indication that the effort is not really generating changes in behaviour, especially in rural areas where also exposure to poultry is much higher. South Sulawesi, Yogyakarta and the Botabek area are critical regions to look at to see how the AI campaign can generate more impact. This applies to both urban and rural areas (TNS 2007). The worrying area for UNICEF was communication to people liv- ing in rural areas. Clearly there was success in providing informa- tion through national TV PSA campaigns. But, beneficiaries in the higher risk provinces of Java and South Sulawesi judged the com- munity level/grassroots communication to need further work, espe- cially in terms of government and community involvement. Also, resistance was anticipated based on economic imperatives overrid- ing preventive messages, and this was again apparent in the benefi- ciary response. A Framework for Social Development Assessment 263 Overall Program activity performance Leverage 1. TV Media Good 7 2. News & information Good 9 3. Message content Average 5 4. Government involvement Average 7 5. Community involvement Average 5 6. Initiatives & programs Poor 6 7. Print, Radio, other media Poor 2 8. Consultation Poor 2 9. Int. Agency contribution Poor 5 S t a t e d I m p o r t a n c e High Low L o w H i g h Motivators Hidden Opportunities Potentials?/Savers? Hygienics Impact on PEI 2 9 4 5 1 8 7 6 3 Fig. 6. Overall Performance of Program Activities in Rural Areas But by using the leverage column it is relatively easy to see that ma- jor work should be done to obtain further government involvement. This probably has a lot to do with the traditional relationships be- tween Indonesian people and the Government. So part of the strategy for 2007 will be to support the government in establishing district level task forces on avian influenza and piloting a range of preventa- tive measures in a village to see what initiatives will work. The TNS beneficiary research clearly points to a need for an adjustment in tactics, messages and targets for the remainder of the campaign in 2007-2008. 7 Future Perspectives There seems to be a great interest for a tool to monitor social pro- grams at this point in time, the time of globalization. SARS, avian Influenza and terrorism are all examples of issues that affect people across borders creating a situation in which the developed and the developing world intersect. This in turn has opened up a two-way link between beneficiaries and donors. It is no longer a situation where donors passively donate funds to a cause in a far away coun- 264 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd try. The country may still be far away but the problem may be as much their problem as the beneficiaries. For example, whilst having the largest number of confirmed deaths, the avian influenza problem is not just an Indonesia problem, it is a global problem. Hence, do- nors no longer want to just feel good about contributing to a good cause, they now also want to see results. Already, the framework has established itself as a valuable monitor- ing and evaluating tool. It is the only independent method of assess- ing beneficiary attitudes to services being provided to them. But the tool should not be confined to development issues. Governments and social service providers in the developed world can use this Frame- work as a way of assessing their effectiveness and judging what people think is important. The Framework was extremely helpful for UNICEF’s communica- tion outputs. The other benefit is that it provides information at two levels. The model is a bit like an iceberg, the tip is the TRI*M Index which is accessible and allows you to quickly see the most valuable insights, and beneath the surface is a wealth of supporting detailed information. Indonesia is a country that has learnt to cope with the most testing of times. In the past 3 years it has suffered repeated natural disasters and also health crises. The Framework worked in providing the in- formation we needed in that environment but among people who are more used to coping than others. The next step for the model is to be tested in different cultures and looking at other social issues in a less extreme situation. Perhaps a challenge for the social development assessment frame- work can be put forward. Can it be used to provide vital clues as to why some of the Millennium Development Goals are being met in many regions of the world and not in others? What do beneficiaries, the poor or the vulnerable think of this extraordinarily ambitious promise to them? Changing their perceptions, influencing their atti- tudes to change negative or ignorant actions into positive behaviour A Framework for Social Development Assessment 265 is one of the main means by which cycles of poverty and high risk activities can be broken. The Framework has the potential to con- tribute to this process. Time is running out before the deadline has to be met, but it is not too late to try out a new approach. References Hermann S. P, (2007) “Measuring, Managing and Monitoring CSR as a Driver for Corporate Reputation”, World Council for Corporate Gov- ernance Conference-, Vilamoura, Portugal, February, 2007 Huber M, Scharioth J, Pallas M (2004), Putting Stakeholder Management into Practice, Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer. O’Gorman S, Pirner P, Measuring and monitoring Stakeholder Relation- ships: Suing TRI*M as an Innovative Tool for Corporate Commu- nication, in: Huber M, Pallas M (eds.) (2006), Customising Stakeholder Management Strategies, Munich: Springer, pp 89-100. Scharioth J, Norma B, Auditing firms today and tomorrow, in: Huber M, Scharioth J, (2003), Achieving Excellence in Stakeholder Management, Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer, pp125-140 The Millennium Development Goals Report, July, 2007 TNS Indonesia, Avian Influenza Campaign Measurement, November, 2006 TNS Indonesia, Social Development Assessment Framework: Evaluating the Performance of the National AI Initiative from a Beneficiary Per- spective, May, 2007 TNS Indonesia (2006), Tsunami Relief Impact Study UN Management Information Service in collaboration with Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Agency (BRR) (8 Dec 2005), The Tsunami Recov- ery Status Report USAID, Avian Influenza: A Qualitative Research Report, May, 2006 WHO, Health Status Statistics: Mortality: Under-five and infant mortality rates, by WHO Region, 2003 Polling in Developing Democracies – The Case of the Philippines Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez Abstract Public opinion polling is relatively new in the Philippines, but becoming more prominent in the public arena as reputable survey firms run high-profile pre-election surveys. In the past 5 elections an “exit poll” has been conducted with the support of ABS-CBN, the biggest media net- work in the Philippines. Such public-opinion polls enable voters to ex- press their views and, in the process, to acquire power with the informa- tion these polls bring. Pre-election polls and exit poll surveys done by reputable survey establishments act as safeguards by quickly establishing probable winners, thus discouraging unscrupulous politicians from com- mitting election fraud. This chapter will describe the data collection process and the challenges encountered in conducting public-opinion polls in the Philippines, a developing democracy with a challenging geography and widespread corruption. 1 Background The Philippines became the first democracy in Asia. In 1896, after over 300 years as a colony of Spain, the Filipinos revolted and estab- lished the first republic in Asia in June, 1898. But in December, 1898, Spain was defeated in the Spanish-American War and, in the Treaty of Paris, sold the Philippines to America. Until the Philippines be- came a Commonwealth in 1935, it was a colony of the United States. As such, Filipinos were trained in the democratic system of govern- ment, which of course, included elections. Then the War with Japan 268 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez broke out in 1941. After the defeat of Japan in 1945, the Philippines obtained independence from the United States in 1946. Since then, elections had been held until Ferdinand Marcos declared Martial Law in 1972. In 1986, a People Power Revolution dismantled the dictatorship, after which there have been elections to the present day. Unlike US elections (after which Philippine democracy is pat- terned) where there are only 2 major parties with which candidates for national office are affiliated, the party system in the Philippines is hazy as politicians can change camps at will. More recent history is studded with coup attempts by a disgruntled military. The Philip- pine government is considered as one of the most corrupt in Asia, which largely accounts for the growing number of poor. Elections are hotly contested, if not bloody, and there have been documented attempts of some parties thwarting election results. Since the People Power Revolution in 1986 when elections were restored, the Philippines has had 9 national elections and in all these elections TNS 1 conducted election-related public-opinion polls. In the last 5 elections, TNS conducted an exit poll for ABS-CBN. Because elections are not computerized, it takes the Commission on Elections around 2 months to finish the counting of votes. The lengthy electoral process makes cheating and tampering of results so likely that it is a rare politician who concedes defeat. The typical refrain of a defeated politician is that he or she has been cheated. Although there are still many in power who do not understand the science of polling, it is becoming accepted by the intelligentsia and used as a tool for decision making during elections. The exit poll, for instance, provides a lot of election-day data. It tracks when people come to the polling station to vote, and it provides socio-demographic data about voters – who came to vote and who voted for whom. 1 Formerly Trends, then Trends MBL, then NFO Trends before it became TNS. Polling in Developing Democracies 269 2 Primary Users of Public Opinion Surveys Elections in the Philippines are held on the second Monday of May, and the campaign period starts 90 days before elections for national positions like those for President, Vice President and Senators. But way before the campaign period, candidates and their advisers start to plan their strategies so that by the time the campaign period starts, plans and strategies are ready for implementation. Opinion-poll results are primary inputs to the planning strategies of candidates. Initial readings from opinion-poll results are needed even before the first strategic plans are made, as these would indi- cate how the electorate perceives a candidate. From these initial readings, political strategists would determine the goals for their candidate and map out plans on how to achieve these goals. After the goals are set, subsequent surveys would be needed to track vot- ers’ responses to tactical efforts being implemented and evaluate whether these are on track to achieve their strategic goals. Survey results also provide data on the strength of competition and inform candidates about their relative position. It was only in 2004 when political advertisements were first permit- ted. Since then, advertising has become a main ingredient in shaping voters’ preferences. Advertising practitioners craft advertisements based on polls and objectives set by political strategists of a candi- date to build his or her image. Opinion polls are again needed to measure voters’ responses to the advertising and help decide how much to spend on it. Media (television, radio and print) sponsor opinion polls to provide estimates of voters’ preferences at various points in time before election as well as on election day itself to predict the outcome. The data is considered newsworthy and, more often than not, takes the headline. Advisers of candidates need scientific survey data to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the candidate so that they can take ad- 270 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez vantage of strengths and correct weaknesses as the campaign moves on. Avid supporters who contribute big sums to a candidate also need scientific data to decide how much money to give a candidate. 3 Ballot Box Methodology After the deadline for filing one’s candidacy, the ballot box survey method is used. The survey is always done house to house. The qualified respondent is asked to simulate the voting process; he or she is given a facsimile of the ballot and asked to write down, in pri- vate, the names of his or her preferred candidates. As in the actual polling place, the respondent is also given the official list of candi- dates released by the Commission on Elections to serve as guide in writing the names. After the respondent has finished filling the “bal- lot”, he or she drops the ballot in a “ballot box”. This method has been proven to be more sensitive than just a ques- tion and answer type of survey using show-cards of candidates. For instance, although there are usually 12 slots for the senatorial race, average fill-up rate of voters, as found out in the ballot box survey method, is only between 7 and 8. While the Philippines boasts good levels of reading comprehension, writing skills lag far behind. A typical respondent copies the preferred candidates’ names painstak- ingly letter by letter from the official list. Table 1. Average Fill-up Rate for Senators (12 Is Maximum) Total Philippines Socio-Economic Class ABC D E 1998 7 9 7 7 2001 6 7 6 6 2004 7 9 7 7 2007 8 10 8 8 Polling in Developing Democracies 271 4 Pre-election Surveys Pre-election surveys are periodically conducted to track voters’ pref- erences. In some surveys, diagnostic questions about a candidate’s image are also asked so that political analysts and advertisers can implement corrective action if results are not on track with expected goals. In setting up pre-election surveys, the following are considered: • A typical nationwide TNS pre-election survey would have a sample size of 1,200 respondents to afford a readable base of 300 for each of the areas in focus: Metro Manila, Balance Lu- zon, Visayas and Mindanao. • In each focus area, the preferred confidence level is 95%. • The typical TNS pre-election survey period is one week. • The sample should be a cross-section of male and female reg- istered voters. Coming closer to election day, the sample is tightened to include only registered voters who plan to vote. 5 Exit Poll or Election-Day Survey The Philippine exit poll or Election-Day Survey is a Philippine ad- aptation which takes local realities into consideration. It is, for in- stance, not possible to interview voters as they come out of the poll- ing station. For one, the law prohibits loitering within a 50-meter radius of the polling station. Moreover, there are many bystanders outside the forbidden radius, making it almost impossible to inter- view voters in privacy after they have voted. Finally, sampling straight from the polling place is difficult as there are no published official data available about demographic characteristics and flow of voters through election day. As a result, instead of interviewing vot- ers as they come out of the polling place, the interview is conducted in the respondent’s private home. Voters are verified by the indelible 272 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez ink that is marked on their forefinger, as a sign that they have al- ready voted. In an exit poll or election-day survey, all interviews are done on election-day. The sample size should be able to predict a winner even for close fights among candidates; i.e., at a 95% confidence Table 2. Project Allocation of Field Personnel ASSIGNED FIELD PERSONNEL NUMBER OF SAMPLE SPOTS Interviewers Group Leaders Coordinators Total P H I L I P P I N E S 914 849 221 59 1,129 NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION 174 132 21 19 172 CORDILLERA ADM. REGION 30 29 10 2 41 REGION I 46 46 11 2 59 REGION II 41 40 11 4 55 REGION III 88 81 16 3 100 REGION IV 125 116 19 9 144 REGION V 44 43 13 3 59 REGION VI 65 64 20 2 86 REGION VII 60 60 15 4 79 REGION VIII 41 41 11 1 53 REGION IX 33 30 12 2 44 REGION X 30 30 11 1 42 REGION XI 39 39 14 2 55 REGION XII 35 35 10 2 47 A.R.M.M. 34 34 14 2 50 CARAGA REGION 29 29 13 1 43 Polling in Developing Democracies 273 level with as narrow a margin of error as possible. The trade-off of having a narrow margin of error (i.e. having a big sample size) is increasing costs, as additional interviews mean a significant increase in expenditure. A typical TNS election-day Survey targets a sample size of no less than 10,000 to be able to net around 5,000 completed interviews. The sample is a cross-section of male and female registered voters. The timetable and deliverables are agreed upon and clearly deline- ated to avoid miscommunication. The most recent TNS election-day survey specified submission of Metro Manila results at 12:00 mid- night (9 hours after polls close at 3pm); and of nationwide results at 12:00 noon of the following day (21 hours after polls close). The submission of nationwide results is made possible by using facsimile transfer (fax) to transmit the coded answers of respondents from is- lands all over the country. The manpower requirement for the exit poll or election-day survey is tremendous. Preparations take mammoth proportions. Table 2 summarizes the number of people required to do an exit poll for a presidential election. Just in the field alone, a total of 1,129 inter- viewers are needed. In addition, there are around 200 more people needed as runners to bring the finished interviews to a faxing centre, coders, checkers, fax machine operators, encoders, and data-process- ing people. It is an entire assembly line! 6 Problems in Implementing Public-Opinion Surveys When an area is a security risk, e.g. areas where there is lawless- ness or areas where rebels like the Abu Sayyaff, New People’s Army (NPA), etc. operate; the situation is reported to the office and the nearest safe adjacent area is chosen as substitute. Still, there have been security issues, albeit minor ones, while conduct- ing interviews. In the last elections, some of the interviewers were robbed of their cash, mobile phone and jewellery. One could not 274 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez proceed to her assigned area because government forces and rebels were fighting in the streets. The Philippines lacks a reliable public transportation system which is even scarcer in rural areas and remote islands. Interviewers take what they can to get to the required spot: a motorcycle, a banca (or boat), a privately hired jeep – or even hike, if there is no alternative. It is important to secure the means for going back to the main town so that results can be faxed back to the office on time. The transpor- tation difficulties take up a lot of the cost as interviewers are often forced to privately hire the transport service at high rates. Quality control is a major challenge for TNS. First, TNS needs to take care when hiring new interviewers, mainly because of the threat of infiltration by bad elements who want to thwart the results and destroy the reputation of the survey firm. Interviewers with strong political affiliations or leanings are excluded from the survey. Each interviewer is assigned a maximum of 10 interviews only, so results would not be significantly affected should there be cheating or should errors go undetected. As a quality check, a minimum of 10% of the interviews are supervised and another 20% are back-checked. If there are errors in interviewing or in completing the survey forms, the interview is not counted in. Finally, results are checked for pos- sible individual interviewer bias. In the past, there have been several attempts to ban the publication of opinion poll survey results. Some influential politicians conjectured that survey results create a bandwagon effect and disturb the elec- toral process. The Supreme Court, however, ruled against these at- tempts, considering any ban “undemocratic”. Opinion polls need to be communicated properly. There are often sur- vey users who are not aware of the implications of surveys; e.g., they point out percentage differences even when these are not statistically significant. There are also those who cannot comprehend sampling theory and remain sceptical as to how 1,200 interviews could be rep- resentative of 45 million Filipino voters. We can count among these many top government officials as well as opinion leaders. Polling in Developing Democracies 275 7 Sample Results of Public-Opinion Polls Periodic readings of voter preference in the 2004 presidential elec- tion shows that in earlier survey rounds (from late November 2003 to early February 2004) the presidential candidate, Poe, was way ahead of Arroyo, but in subsequent surveys, Arroyo had caught up with Poe; and by April/May 2004 had overtaken with an increasing lead over Poe. Arroyo won on election day (May 11) according to TNS polls. The ranking of candidates in the exit poll is generally consistent with the actual count as published by the Commission on Elections. In Tables 3 and 4, the results for the presidential elections in 1998 and 2004 are shown. In a senatorial election, exit-poll ranking has not been that consistent with the actual count especially with the last 4 slots which usually are very closely contested. Signs of cheating are also noted when a candidate who does not figure in the exit poll shows up in the official COMPARATIVE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES - TOTAL PHILIPPINES 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 NOV 4-17 JAN 16- 22 JAN 23- FEB 8 FEB 16- 20 MAR 11- 19 MAR 24- 28 APR 14- 25 MAY 1-4 % W H O P R E F E R ARROYO POE ROCO LACSON VILLANUEVA UNDECIDED/ NONE Fig. 1. Presidential Preferences 276 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez counting: even if sampling error is considered, it is still highly im- probable for the candidate to come out as a winner. Yet given the strong blocks of power in the Philippines, the candidate is often pro- claimed into office. Table 3. Comparing Exit Poll and Actual Votes for President, Total Philip- pines 1998 Presidential Candidates Exit Poll Actual** Estrada 39% 40% De Venecia 16% 16% Roco 13% 14% Osmeña 12% 12% Lim 9% 9% De Villa 5% 5% Santiago 3% 3% Enrile 1% 1% Marcos 1% 1% Dumlao * * Morato * * * Less than 0.05% Table 4. Comparing Exit Poll and Actual Votes for President, Total Philip- pines 2004 Presidential Candidates Exit Poll Actual** Arroyo 41% 40% Poe 32% 36% Lacson 9% 11% Villanueva 5% 6% Roco 5% 6% Invalid/Blank 8% - Polling in Developing Democracies 277 Table 5. Comparing Exit Poll and Actual Votes for Senators, Total Philip- pines 1998 Exit Poll Actual** Senatorial Candidates Rank % Rank % Legarda 1 56 1 56 Cayetano 2 49 2 49 Sotto 3 45 3 43 Pimentel 5 34 4 38 Barbers 6 34 5 36 Biazon 9 32 6 35 Ople 10 32 7 35 Osmeña 8 33 8 34 Jaworski 4 34 9 33 Revilla 7 33 10 32 Guingona 11 26 11 27 Aquino-Oreta 13 24 12 27 Source of Actual Data: COMELEC May 29, 1998 Proclamation Table 6. Comparing Exit Poll and Actual Votes for Senators, Total Philip- pines 2001 Exit Poll Actual** Senatorial Candidates Rank % Rank % De Castro 1 59 1 59 Flavier 2 40 2 42 Osmena 3–4 39 3 42 Drilon 5-7 38 4 41 Arroyo 3-4 39 5 41 Magsaysay 5-7 38 6 41 278 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez Table 6 (continued) Exit Poll Actual** Senatorial Candidates Rank % Rank % Villar 8-9 37 7 40 Pangilinan 5-7 38 8 40 Angara 8-9 37 9 39 Lacson 10-13 35 10 39 Ejercito-Estrada 10-13 35 11 38 Recto 10-13 35 12 38 Honasan 10-13 35 13 38 Source of Actual Data: Final COMELEC Count, August 30, 2001 Table 7. Comparing Exit Poll and Actual Votes for Senators, Total Philip- pines 2004 Exit Poll Actual** Senatorial Candidates Rank % Rank % Roxas 1 56 1 58 Revilla 2 51 2 47 Pimentel 3–4 38 3 40 Madrigal 5 37 4 40 Gordon 6–8 35 5 38 Cayetano 3–4 38 6 37 Defensor 6–8 35 7 36 Lim 14–15 28 8 34 Enrile 11-12 31 9 33 Estrada 6-8 35 10 33 Lapid 9 34 11 33 Biazon 11-12 31 12 32 Source of Actual Data: COMELEC Records and Statistics Division Polling in Developing Democracies 279 Table 8. Comparing Exit Poll and Actual Voters for Senators, Total Philip- pines 2007 Exit Poll Actual** Senatorial Candidates Rank % Rank % Legarda 1 59 1 63 Escudero 2 53 2 62 Lacson 4-5 46 3 53 Villar 3 50 4 52 Pangilinan 4-6 45 5 49 Aquino 5-7 43 6 49 Angara 6-7 41 7 43 Cayetano 8-9 39* 8 40 Arroyo 8-12 37 9 40 Honasan 9-13 35 10 40 Trillanes 9-13 35 11 38 Zubiri 9-13 35 12 37 * Includes “Allan Peter Cayetano” Votes and “Cayetano” Votes ** As of June 14, 2007 (COMELEC Website) 8 Concluding Remarks TNS Philippines has been successful in overcoming local barriers in implementing public-opinion polls and in adapting “Western” exit- polling methodologies to local conditions. However, current methodologies leave much room for improvement. The most salient among these is the lead time it takes for TNS to submit its results in a country like the Philippines. As the Philippines develops and modern technology becomes cheaper and more acces- sible, however, it is expected that such lead time would shorten and become on a par with “Western” standards. 280 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez Polling in the Philippines is still a highly misunderstood science. However, its regular and constant implementation and the public dissemination of its results familiarize the general populace as re- gards its validity. It is becoming more widely known that there is a science to determining who and where to interview, that interviews are actually conducted, and that safeguards are implemented to pro- tect the integrity of the interviews. If done properly, with appropriate quality-control measures, polling can be a reliable tool even in a developing democracy like the Philippines with its challenging geography, poor infrastructure and widespread corruption. References COMELEC Records and Statistics Division ABS-CBN/SWS/TNS Exit Poll 1995; 1998; 2001; 2004 ABS-CBN/Pulse Asia/TNS Exit Poll 2007 Māori Television Services – Raising Knowledge of Māori Language and Culture in New Zealand Elizabeth Vink Abstract. In New Zealand, there is a desire to preserve the national cul- tural identity of the country. The Māori language and culture play a central role in forming this identity. The Government has written legislation and created entities to protect and promote the Māori language and culture. An example of this is seen in the writing of the Māori Television Service Act which led to the establishment of Māori Television Service. Māori Televi- sion needed a research partner to help identify its potential audience and how they could best reach it. In 2005, TNS was commissioned as Māori Television Service’s research partner to help answer these questions. TNS used a mix of ad hoc qualitative work and the development of an audience monitor (involving Conversion Model™) to meet the research need. This article describes the research approach undertaken, highlights some of the main findings, and describes the role which TNS has played in helping to deliver insight to Māori Television Service. 1 Background A common stream of thought on the topic of globalization, is that the world is increasingly becoming more as one culture with differ- ences in national cultural identity diminishing (Berkowitz et. al 2000). In response, countries are starting to recognise the need to preserve and promote their cultural identity. For example, France 282 Elizabeth Vink was concerned by the English influence on their culture and reviewed the use of Franglais (a mixture of English and French words). Conse- quently, where possible they worked to replace Franglais with pure French words (Llosa 2000). Other countries including New Zealand are undertaking steps to ensure their culture is not lost, but pro- moted. The United Nations discussed the issue of protecting and promoting indigenous education and culture within countries. Discussions fo- cused on the need to avoid isolating indigenous people as well as informing and educating the wider population of the language and culture. In this forum, a representative from the UNESCO (United Nations Scientific, Educational and Cultural Organisation) stated that cultural diversity played a vital role in today’s globalised world (United Nations 2003). Māori are the indigenous people of New Zealand. Māori make up the second largest ethnic group within New Zealand with around 14.6 percent (565,329 people) identifying themselves as Māori (Sta- tistics New Zealand 2007a). In 1987, Māori was made an official language (in addition to English) (Te Taura Whiri i te Reo Māori 1994). The Māori culture and language is therefore a key part of New Zealand’s identity. Across the total population of New Zealanders 4.1 percent (157,110 people) are able to have a conversation about everyday things in Māori (Statistics New Zealand 2007a). Among Māori alone, 23.7 percent (131,613 people) are able to converse every day things in Māori. However, this is more common among those aged 65 years and over (where 48.7 percent of Māori this age could hold a conver- sation in Māori) (Statistics New Zealand 2007b). In an effort to preserve and grow New Zealand’s identity in an ever- increasing globalised world, the New Zealand Government has put in place legislation and entities to protect and promote the Māori language and culture. Māori Television Services 283 An example of such legislation is the Māori Television Service Act 2003 which led to the establishing of the national free-to-air station, Māori Television Service (Māori Television). Māori Television’s principal function is to promote the Māori language and culture: „… through the provision of a high quality, cost effective Māori television service, in both Māori and English, which informs, educates and entertains, and in doing so enriches New Zealand’s society, culture and heritage” (Te Puni Kōkiri 2001). Māori Television knew from its establishment that it had a great op- portunity to attract audiences by having professionally produced local content, a great sense of humour and plenty of content to enter- tain and challenge fluent Māori speakers. However, since its launch in March 2004, the young station grappled with one key question: How could it carve out a sustainable, solid audience in a tough mar- ket? It was young and fresh, but how could it compel not only its present viewers to stay watching, but draw thousands of new view- ers to tune in via UHF or the Sky platforms? It wanted to enlarge its committed audience in an efficient, cost-effective way. The big question was how. Every weekday evening a substantial number of New Zealanders turn on their television sets. However, most switch to the older free-to-air channels (TV One, TV2, and TV3) for their dose of news and current affairs, sport, movies, and entertainment. Consequently, there was a clear need for some questions to be an- swered and for research to be undertaken. In 2005, TNS became Māori Television’s dedicated independent market research partner. TNS was commissioned to carry out audi- ence research in order to identify and support Māori Television’s marketing efforts to drive viewer acquisition. The research also needed to inform the channel’s programme commissioning, acquisi- tion and production strategies. TNS established the Māori Television Audience Monitor and conducted qualitative research to help sup- port Māori Television in their goals. 284 Elizabeth Vink 2 Method TNS worked in collaboration with Māori Television to develop a 15- minute questionnaire for the Audience Monitor. The questionnaire was constructed to provide measures for the following objectives: • The level of awareness and understanding of Māori Television • General viewing behaviour patterns • Māori Television viewing patterns • Attitudes towards Māori Television • How the audience was segmented TNS included Conversion Model™ 1 within the questionnaire to de- termine the levels of commitment among viewers. Māori Television was particularly interested in seeing how the channel could be pro- moted to attract those who were ‘open’ to watching the channel. Since the initial benchmark survey undertaken in June 2005, inter- views for the Audience Monitor have been obtained using a Com- puter Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) approach. During the first year monitoring, fieldwork was conducted on a quarterly basis (June 2005, September 2005, December 2005 and March 2006). However, in the second year of monitoring, it was decided that only two monitoring periods were required (November 2006 and June 2007). Throughout each of the monitoring periods, a random sample of 350 Māori and 350 general population interviews was achieved (with an associated maximum margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence). Random digit dialing was used to generate the general population sample (as this has the advantage of obtaining unlisted numbers). However, as Māori represent approximately 12 percent of the gen- 1 A TNS business solution, see http://www.conversionmodel.com/. Māori Television Services 285 eral population aged 15 years and over (Statistics NZ 2007c), the demographic group tended to be under-represented when using tra- ditional random sampling. TNS therefore generated the Māori sam- ple from the Māori Electoral Roll and used screener questions to ensure we obtained a Māori respondent aged 16 or over, but not nec- essarily someone on the roll or with a Telecom account. The robust sample enabled Māori Television to understand the data by key demographic groupings such as geographic location, age and gender. In order, to understand the public’s expectations of Māori Television Jaccard analysis was used. By inference, from their per- ceptions and behaviour, TNS established the importance of various attributes and how Māori Television and its competitors are per- forming on each attribute. In addition, multiple monitoring periods throughout the year allow Māori Television to keep up to date with emerging viewer trends. Following the December Audience Monitor results, it was evident that Qualitative research was needed to look further into those segmented as “Opens” on the Conversion Model™ commitment line. Results indicated that there was a significant opportunity among ‘Opens’ for Māori Television to grow its viewership, and consequently help to achieve its function of informing, educating and entertaining, and in doing so enriching New Zealand’s society in the area of Māori culture and language. In February 2006, TNS conducted six focus groups in order to meet the following objectives: • Understand Opens’ television viewing behaviour and decision making. • Explore the relative positioning of Māori Television against key competitors. • Explore the motivations and barriers to viewing Māori Televi- sion at all or more often. 286 Elizabeth Vink • Explore the drivers of potential identified in the quantitative research (e.g. news and current affairs for the general popula- tion, indigenous documentaries for Māori) and how they should be expressed on Māori Television. • Identify the best ways to communicate with Opens, including key messages, ‘hot buttons’ for communications and appropri- ate communication channels. Focus group participants were recruited by a professional recruit- ment company. Participants were recruited on the basis of meeting the profile of television ‘Opens’ (those who did not generally watch Māori Television but who were open to watching it). In addition, all participants had watched Māori Television at least twice since 1 st August 2005. Three of the focus groups were conducted with Māori participants, and three with general population participants. The overall sample included a range of ages (from 20 to 64 years), and a near even gender split. The sample breakdown was as follows: Location Number of focus groups Auckland One with 20-34 years Māori One with 45-64 years general population Hamilton One with 20-34 years Māori Palmerston North One with 35-64 years Māori Wellington One with 20-44 years general population Christchurch One with 45-64 years general population All focus groups were held in the evening and lasted around two and a half hours. The focus groups held in Auckland and Wellington were conducted at TNS’ offices in these locations. The groups at other locations were conducted at a local hotel. Māori Television Services 287 Prior to the research commencing, TNS prepared a discussion guide for use in the focus groups. The discussion guide was created in col- laboration with Māori Television. It was decided that as a useful tool it would be beneficial for participants to prepare a scrapbook prior to the focus groups which would then help the participants to visualize and express issues and needs that were difficult to put into words. 3 Findings Both the quantitative and qualitative research findings provided a wealth of insight to Māori Television. Quantitative Findings As previously noted, at the end of the first year of monitoring, the quantitative findings were used to inform the qualitative research. The quantitative research was central to identifying who the ‘open’ viewers were i.e. their profile. Other key findings that were pivotal to steering the qualitative research were that over one-third (34 percent) of the Māori population and more than one fifth (23 percent) of New Zealanders (general popula- tion) were open to, but did not generally watch, Māori Television. In addition, the results found that while ‘open’ viewers considered Māori Television a ‘rising star’, the channel had low viewer commitment. The channel needed to build awareness among the wider population that is was for all people not just Māori. As previously mentioned, this represented a significant opportunity for Māori Television to grow its viewership, and in doing so work to increase the knowledge of the Māori language and culture across New Zealand. Qualitative Findings The qualitative findings provided the channel with an in-depth un- derstanding of viewers’ perceptions of specific programmes and pre- 288 Elizabeth Vink senters and how best to improve them. Critically, the qualitative re- search gave insight into how to convert New Zealand’s “opens” into actual viewers of Māori Television. Through the research it was identified that Māori Television’s com- munications needed to leverage its key strengths and point of differ- ence e.g. unique identity, focus on New Zealand and freshness. In order to communicate this message to the New Zealand public, Māori Television needed to be present in mainstream media includ- ing major daily newspapers, billboards and buses. In addition, com- munications specifically promoting programming (with descriptions of individual programmes) needed to appear on Māori Television and other channels as well as in print communications e.g. major daily newspapers, The Listener, The TV Guide. A key barrier to Māori Television connecting with a wider New Zea- land audience was the use of Māori language and the perception that Māori Television was more for Māori than the general population. TNS recommended a number of actions that could be implemented to mitigate the issue such as increasing the amount of English lan- guage content (in the shorter term at least and without compromising mandated responsibilities), making (more) use of a Māori/English hybrid language (such that it is easy for non-Māori speakers to un- derstand a programme’s content), and using English subtitles, albeit sparingly. In addition, the findings pointed to particular programming that could be implemented so as to increase viewership and therefore educate a wider audience on the Māori culture and language: 1. Documentaries about Māori, not too long, easy to understand, and international documentaries 2. New Zealand movies 3. News and current affairs 4. Sport Māori Television Services 289 Putting the Findings into Action Māori Television wowed New Zealand on April 25 2006 (ANZAC Day) with an unprecedented audience of 215,000 New Zealanders. The figures represented a stunning 553 per cent increase on audience figures compared with viewing over the previous four Tuesdays. Māori Television outrated its competitors by harnessing the talents of a key New Zealand broadcasting personality coupled with a senior Māori Television journalist. The dynamic combination personified Māori Television’s fresh determination to convey that Māori Tele- vision is mā tātou (for everyone). In addition to the ANZAC Day coverage being a showstopper, Māori Television outlined other ways that TNS market research had been effective for Māori Television. Firstly, in the area of programme changes: “We have ensured that all programmes in our prime time, 8pm to 11pm, are accessible. That is, in te reo Māori and subtitled, or more bi-lingual. The main reason this was done was to attract the ‘open’ group, but it also appeals to Māori who are not fluent te reo Māori speakers.” (Sonya Haggie, Māori Television’s General Manager for Sales and Marketing) Changes mooted for the daily news and current affairs programmes will result in these programmes being more inclusive for the ‘open’ group. Secondly, the acquisitions department at Māori Television now has a key strategy to: “acquire programming that attracts a wider au- dience from the pool of available viewers, as represented in TNS re- search.” Consequently, one action that was undertaken in light of this strategy was a campaign that included a widely-distributed brochure which conveyed the message that Māori Television has programmes in English. In short, it was designed to appeal to the ‘open’ group. To sum up: TNS market research findings and recommendations helped Māori Television to connect with all New Zealanders by tell- ing ‘our’ New Zealand stories and in doing so achieve its aim of educating the wider New Zealand population of the Māori. 290 Elizabeth Vink 4 Discussion The example of Māori Television highlights the insight that can be delivered when ad hoc qualitative research is combined with a quan- titative monitor involving Conversion Model™. In the words of Māori Television’s Sonya Haggie: “The most valuable information we have had [from TNS market research] has been around the audience segmentation, and finding out about our potential audience – who they are and how it is that we need to appeal to them”. In using the combined quantitative and qualitative approach, TNS was able to clearly meet a strategic need of the organisation. Māori Television needed to find out who they could target and Conversion Model™ was able to identify this for them. The qualitative research then complimented the quantitative findings in identifying how this could be done. The flow on effect from helping Māori Television to increase its accessibility, is that a contribution is made to the education of and understanding among New Zealanders (both Māori and non-Māori) of New Zealand’s unique cultural identity. In doing so, this further increases the knowledge of the Māori culture and language in the country. References Berkowitz, K & Hartley, R. 2000. Marketing (6 th ed.), Irwin/McGraw-Hill, USA. Llosa, M. 2000. The Culture of Liberty, Global Policy Forum Publications, South Africa. Statistics New Zealand 2007a. Quick Stats about Culture and Identity http://www.stats.govt.nz/census/2006-census-data/quickstats-about- culture-identity/quickstats-about-culture-and-identity.htm] [viewed 11 June 2007]. Māori Television Services 291 Statistics New Zealand 2007b. Quick Stats about Māori [online version via http://www.stats.govt.nz/census/2006-census-data/quickstats-about- Māori/2006-census-quickstats-about-Māori-revised.htm] [viewed 11 June 2007]. Statistics New Zealand 2007c. Regional Summary Tables – Territorial Authority [online version via http://www.stats.govt.nz/NR/rdonlyres/ C9A86DBD-5B34-402D-8947-7F705104026B/0/RegionalSummary- TablesTerritorialAuthority.xls] [viewed 11 June 2007]. Te Puni Kōkiri 2001. Māori Television Service Fact Sheet. [online version via http://www.tpk.govt.nz/publications/subject/default.asp# broadcast- ing] [viewed 11 June 2007]. Te Taura Whiri i te Reo Māori 1994. Blueprint for a Languages Policy: New Zealand Public Service (May): 5. United Nations 2003. Importance of Indigenous Education and Culture Highlighted, as Permanent Forum Continues Second Session, Press Re- lease HR/4674, May. About the Authors Abrasheva, Marchella is one of the leading Bulgarian sociologists and market / political analyzers. She has 15 years experince with BBSS Gallup International, of which she is the Executive Director since 1999. Mrs. Abrasheva has a renowned professional experi- ence and qualifications in qualitative and quantitative research, and a rich international experience in multi-country project man- agement in the Balkan region. Mrs. Abrasheva is a regular contribu- tor to Bulgarian Foreign Policy magazine and Bulgarian „24 hours” Daily Newspaper since 2004. Contact details: 23, James Boucher Street, 1164 Sofia, Bulgaria, Tel: 359 (0) 2 9694 101. Email: m.abracheva@gallup-bbss. com Abad, Mercedes is Managing Director of TNS Philippines. Her ex- perience covers both quantitative and qualitative research over a wide range of areas. She has set-up and helped manage two major research companies in the Philippines: Consumer Pulse, which was eventually bought by AC Nielsen, and TNS Trends. She was presi- dent of MORES, the local market and opinion research society, foun- der of Social Weather Stations, a socio-political research agency. Mrs. Abad graduated B.S. Chemical Engineering from the University of the Philippines, 1963 and MBA from the same institution, 1983. Contact details: TNS, 12/F PSBank Center, 777 Paseo De Roxas, Makati City 1200, Philippines. Tel: +63 2 9253745. Email: Mercy. [email protected] Bielenski, Harald is Head of the Labour Market Research Unit at TNS Infratest Sozialforschung, Munich, Germany. He holds a di- ploma in Sociology and has a special research interest in labour 294 About the Authors market policy and working conditions. Contact details: TNS Infra- test Sozialforschung GmbH, Landsberger Straße 338, 80687 Mün- chen, Germany. Tel: +49 (0) 89 5600-1387. Email: Harald.Bielenski @tns-infratest.com Budd, John is a journalist by trade and inclination. For most of his 30 year career he worked for the Australian Broadcasting Corpora- tion. He is an award winning executive producer of Australia’s long- est running documentary length current affairs program Four Cor- ners, and was National Editor of TV News. After leaving the ABC he joined UNICEF in Jakarta as Head of Communication and Pri- vate Sector Fund Raising in 2003. He was part of the UNICEF team which responded to the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami in Aceh. He has also led behaviour change communication in the areas of maternal health, primary education, polio, and other immunization issues as well as avian influenza. Budd is now the regional communication advisor for the UNICEF region of Central and Eastern Europe, and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Contact details: John Budd, UNICEF. Email: [email protected] Carballo, Marita is Global Sector Head of TNS, Political and So- cial. Marita started her career in Argentina, where she was President and CEO of Gallup Argentina from 1979 to 2001. She also served as a professor and later, Director of the Sociology Department at the Catholic University between 1986 and 2002. Marita integrates key positions in different organizations, such as the Comparative Sociol- ogy Committee of the International Sociological Association and is the Chair of the Liaison Committee at WAPOR. She has integrated the International Social Science Council (ISSC) Executive Commit- tee (a UNESCO organization) and was named Vice President of In- formation of the ISSC (2004 to 2006). Marita is also an active elected member of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the World Values Survey. She has published several books and many articles in newspapers and journals and presented several papers at conferences and congresses around the world. Contact details: TNS Tel. +44 77 39 85 69 02 Email:[email protected] About the Authors 295 Chelala, Pascal is Managing Director of TNS Opinion, a co- ordination centre for multi-country studies based in Brussels (Bel- gium). TNS opinion is currently in charge of the Eurobarometer sur- veys on behalf of the European Commission. Pascal has a Master in Management Sciences from the Solvay Business School (ULB Brus- sels). He is member of World Association for Public Opinion Re- search (WAPOR) and ESOMAR. Over the last 10 years, he has been in charge of the coordination of survey research in countries around the world for an important number of international institutions like the World Health Organisation, the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the World Bank. Contact details: TNS Opinion, Av. Hermann Debroux 40, 1160 Brussels, Belgium. Tel: +32 (0) 2 66 118 66. Email: [email protected] Cilley, Constanza is the Manager of Political and Social International Research and Head of Population studies in TNS Gallup Argentina. She is the author of numerous papers presented in WAPOR and Gallup International Association’s Conferences. She has a Graduate in Law of the Catholic University Buenos Aires, and post graduate stud- ies in London School of Economics in Business and Management and research methods in Michigan University. Contact details: TNS Gallup, Av. Córdoba 883, Piso 12, C1054AAH Buenos Aires, Argentina. Tel: 54 11 5218 2000. Email: constanza.cilley@tns-gallup. com.ar Cowling, Tony is the President of TNS. Founder member of Taylor Nelson Ltd in 1965, Tony was responsible for building the com- pany’s specialist divisions and syndicated panel services over a pe- riod of 35 years. As Chief Executive, he led the company through the acquisition of AGB UK in 1992, the merger with Sofres in 1997, in addition to significant organic growth. With Tony as Chairman, 20 further acquisitions completed during the period 2000-2005, and the merger with NFO, made TNS the world’s second largest market research company in the world. Tony is President of Gallup Interna- tional Association, member of ESOMAR, MRS, and World Associa- tion for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR). In January 2001, Tony was named Market Research Executive of the Decade by Inside Re- search – the leading USA newsletter for the MR industry. In January 296 About the Authors 2006, Tony was awarded the MRS Gold Medal. Tony regularly pre- sents papers at conferences and congresses around the world. Con- tact details: TNS Tel: +44 1372 825904 E-mail: Tony.Cowling@tns- global.com De Voogd, Leendert is Managing Director of TNS Opinion. He is also the Global Key Account Director within TNS for the European Institutions. Leendert studied Political sciences in Belgium (UCL) and in France (Sciences Po, IEP). From 1997 to 2002 he worked at IFOP, France’s oldest polling agency, where he served as Research Director. Over the last 10 years, he has been in charge of the coordi- nation of survey research in countries around the world for an impor- tant number of international institutions like the European Commis- sion, the European Central Bank, UNICEF etc. Contact details: TNS Opinion, Av. Hermann Debroux 40, 1160 Brussels, Belgium. Tel: +32 (0) 2 66 118 66. Email: [email protected] Hilmer, Richard is Managing Director of TNS Infratest Social Re- search and of Infratest dimap in Germany. TNS Infratest Social Re- search is the leading German provider of tools for strategic commu- nication for governments, political parties, and other public institutions. As head of Infratest dimap, he is particularly involved in electoral reporting for the ARD, the leading German public TV sta- tion. Richard Hilmer is a member of the WAPOR committee “Exit Polling”. He has published extensively in the field of political and election research. Contact Details: TNS Infratest, Moosdorfstrasse 7-9, D-12435 Berlin. Tel. +49 (0)30 533 22 113. Email: Richard. [email protected] Hjelmar, Ulf is responsible for the development of TNS’ research tools directed towards the public sector, international organizations, and political parties. He holds a Ph.D. in political science and has published numerous articles in international journals and several books within this field. From 1995-2004 he worked at TNS Gallup in Denmark where he was in charge of social and political research. Major international clients include the EU Commission, UNICEF and Red Cross. Contact details: Ulf Hjelmar, TNS Political & So- cial. Email: [email protected] About the Authors 297 Jenkins, Richard is responsible for TNS Canadian Facts’ public sector research. He holds an Honours and Masters degree in Political Studies from Queen’s University and a Doctoral Degree in Political Science from the University of British Columbia. His academic training focused on public opinion (including both methodological and substantive issues), public policy and Canadian politics. He has published articles in a number of respected peer-reviewed journals, including the Canadian Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, and chapters in a number of edited books. Contact Details: TNS Canadian Facts, 900 – 2 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3H8, Canada, Tel. (613) 230-4408. Email: Richard.Jenkins @tns-global.com Lambert, David B. is Senior Vice President and Director of Polling & Social Research at TNS USA. Prior to its acquisition by TNS, he was Vice President and the Manager of the Polling, Government and Social Research Group at Chilton Research Services. He has over 25 years' experience in survey research, with a particular emphasis on projects requiring rigorous research methods. His group at TNS con- ducts the sampling, data collection and tabulation for most ABC News/Washington Post Polls. He received his MA and Ph.D. in soci- ology from Temple University. Contact details: TNS, 410 Horsham Rd., Horsham, PA 19044, USA. Tel. 001 215 442 9638. Email: [email protected] Langer, Gary has been director of polling at ABC News since 1998; he worked previously as ABC’s senior polling analyst (1990- 1997) and as a newsman at The Associated Press (1980-1990). Langer is past president of the New York Chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research and a trustee of the Na- tional Council on Public Polls. His awards include a 2005 news Emmy – the first to cite a public opinion poll; a 2004 Emmy nomi- nation; and the 2006 University of Iowa/Gallup award. Contact de- tails: [email protected] Lindgren, Daniel has over 18 years experience in marketing and marketing research consulting. Daniel joined TNS Indonesia in 2002 298 About the Authors and was head of polling and social research for several years work- ing closely with a number of donor organizations including UNICEF, IFES, ILO and IRI. Daniel is an occasional public speaker and has written several feature articles for The Jakarta Post, Van Zorge Report, and Indonesian Business Perspective as well as co- authored a book. Contact details: TNS, Tel. +62 21 252 6022/23. Email: [email protected] Merkle, Daniel is Director of the Election Decision Desk at ABC News where he’s responsible for election data and projections. Be- fore this he was Assistant Director of Polling at ABC where he de- signed, managed and analyzed polls on a wide variety of topics. Prior to joining ABC News, he was Director of Surveys at Voter News Service and before that Senior Project Director and Method- ologist at D.S. Howard and Associates, a market research firm in Chicago. Merkle is the author of over 50 conference papers, journal articles and book chapters on survey methodology and public opin- ion. He received his MA and Ph.D. in communication research from Northwestern University. Email [email protected] Mukherji, Tilak is a Director on the Board of TNS India and TNS Lanka. He holds an M Sc (Hons) Degree in Mathematics from BITS, Pilani. He has more than two and a half decades of research experi- ence. He has published papers/articles in edited books and presented at national and international seminars/conferences. He has conducted research studies for USAID, UNICEF, DFID, UNFPA, WHO, ILO, World Bank et al and several Indian Government Ministries/ de- partments. He is a life member of Indian Association for the Study of Population, and Indian Society for Social Sciences in Health, and member of International Union for the Scientific Study of Popula- tion (IUSSP). Contact details: TNS India, CICD Tower, Hauz Khas Institutional Area, New Delhi 110 016, India. Ph : (+ 91 11) 4256 6666. Email: [email protected] Quick, Susannah is the UK Managing Director of TNS Public Ser- vices. She has twenty years experience in research – primarily for the public sector. She started her career at BMRB, and then moved About the Authors 299 to TNS to head up the Social research Division. During her career she has worked on a huge variety of contracts – primarily for central Government clients such as the Department of Health and the De- partment of Trade and Industry, but also for Government agencies and charities. However, over recent years her main area of activity has been in education research, much of which has been commis- sioned by the Department for Education and Skills. Contact details: Susannah Quick, TNS, 36 Paradise Road, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 1SE, UK. Tel: +44 (0) 20 8334 4208. Email: Susannah.quick@tns- global.com Ramirez, Ophelia has been with TNS for more than 20 years and is experienced in quantitative measurement especially in opinion poll- ing and social research. She graduated in Statistics from the Univer- sity of the Philippines, 1971, and holds a MBA from De La Salle University, 1984. Contact details: TNS, Tel. +63 2 9253745. Email: [email protected] Somayajulu, U. V. is Vice President and Head of Social Research with TNS India at Delhi. He holds an M Sc Degree in Statistics, M Phil and Ph D in Population Studies from International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai, M A in Sociology from An- namalai University, P G Diploma in Human Resources Management and MBA from IGNOU. He has 19 years of research experience. He has 60 papers/articles published in edited books, national journals and presented at national and international seminars/conferences. He has conducted research studies for USAID, UNICEF, DFID, World Bank. UNFPA, IRH, Action Aid, ILO, HIV/AIDS Alliance, Popula- tion Council, Path, FHI and several Indian Government Minis- tries/departments. Contact details: TNS India, CICD Tower, Hauz Khas Institutional Area, New Delhi 110 016, India. Ph : (+ 91 11) 4256 6666. Email: [email protected] Teinturier, Brice is the Deputy managing director of TNS Sofres and Head of the public opinion strategies department. He is a Graduate of Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris, and holds DEAs (postgraduate qualifications) in philosophy and political studies. He 300 About the Authors has 19 years’ experience in studying public opinion in the broadest sense. He is a Lecturer at the Sorbonne, Sciences-Po Paris and head of the course on public opinion at Sciences-Po’s school of commu- nication. He is the Co-director with Olivier Duhamel of the annual publication “L’Etat de l’Opinion” (State of Public Opinion), Edi- tions du Seuil. Numerous articles in the printed media (Le Figaro, Le Monde) and specialist journals. He also hosts the election pro- grammes on the main media channels: TF1, RTL. Contact details: TNS Sofres Tel. 0140924770. Email: Brice.Teinturier@tns-sofres. com Ugland, Ole is Research Director of Political and Social at TNS Gallup Norway. Previous experience includes 12 years of work as researcher and senior researcher at FAFO International institute of applied social science, related to the collection of socio-economic information for strategic public policy planning in the Middle East. At TNS Gallup Ugland is in charge of political polling for Norway’s largest private TV station – TV2, and conducts research for a wide range of research communities, public and private institutes and or- ganisations. Ugland has published extensively in the field of living conditions studies. Contact details: TNS Gallup, P.O. Box 9016, Grønland, Oslo, 0133, Norway. Tel: 0047 23 29 16 00. Email: [email protected] Vink, Elizabeth is a Senior Project Manager in the TNS Wellington Office. Elizabeth joined TNS in 2006 and has since been involved in a range of both social and commercial research projects. Prior to joining, she was involved in business projects with a national Tele- communications provider as well as having a social marketing role while volunteering for a Pregnancy Crisis Centre in the UK. Eliza- beth has a Bachelor of Commerce and Administration (International Business and Electronic Commerce), a Graduate Diploma (Market- ing) and a First Class Honours Degree (Marketing) from Victoria University of Wellington. Contact details: TNS, PO Box 10-132, Wellington. Tel: +64 (4) 499 3183. Email: elizabeth.vink@tns-global. co.nz Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World Marita Carballo • Ulf Hjelmar Editors Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World 123 Dr. Marita Carballo Dr. Ulf Hjelmar TNS Westgate London, W5 1UA United Kingdom [email protected] [email protected] Reference in this book to Gallup International refers to the Gallup International Association, which is a Swiss Verein that was founded as “Gallup International” in 1947 by Dr George Horace Gallup and his colleagues. ISBN 978-3-540-75752-8 DOI 10.1007/978-3-540-75753-5 Library of Congress Control Number: 2007937662 c 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg e-ISBN 978-3-540-75753-5 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Production: LE-TEX Jelonek, Schmidt & Vöckler GbR, Leipzig Coverdesign: WMX Design GmbH, Heidelberg Printed on acid-free paper 987654321 springer.com Preface The book contains results from opinion polls around the world, in total more than 50 countries. As the world becomes more integrated, political and social challenges have become increasingly global, pointing to a greater need for understanding between nations and for finding global trends. Understanding public opinion is integral to modern democracies around the world. It shapes public policies; it helps politicians to connect with their audiences; it reveals underlying issues that are of utmost importance for decision-makers. The initiative for this book has come from TNS Political and Social, a world leader in providing political and social information. TNS provides insights into public opinion, covers elections and analyzes other political, social and economic issues, in more than 70 countries. Each year TNS conducts millions of interviews for clients to understand how the public is thinking or reacting to major issues on a national or international scale. This unique position on the international market has enabled us to conceive and produce this book. I hope this book will find a big audience. Public opinion polling is a powerful tool in the world of today and we need a thorough discussion of its role and its potential in politics and society at large. The following chapters explore and develop this idea. London, September 2007 Marita Carballo Global Head of Sector, TNS Political & Social ...............Contents Preface..... 13 Tony Cowling Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar Part 1: International Polls The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy ......... 77 Marchella Abrasheva . 43 Pascal Chelala Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization........................................................................... 61 Constanza Cilley How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? .................................................V Introduction ....................... 25 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives ............................................ Investments and the United States .......................................... .............................. Gary Langer....................... 207 Ole Ugland .............. 173 Harald Bielenski The School Sport Partnership Programme – Raising Levels of Participation in Physical Education and Sport in Schools in England .................................................................................................................................. and David Lambert The Presidential Elections in France 2007 – The Role of Opinion Polls ............. 153 Richard Jenkins Part 3: The Public Sector in Transition Developing Employment Policy in Europe ................... 135 Brice Teinturier Voters Lack Commitment: Canada.. 109 Daniel Merkle................................. 191 Susannah Quick Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case ....VIII Contents Part 2: Public Opinion Polling in National Elections Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts .......................... 93 Richard Hilmer Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling: Lessons from ABC News’ 32-Night Tracking Poll... .................................................. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji A Framework for Social Development Assessment .. 293 .... 229 U....V..............Contents IX Part 4: Asia on the Move The Role of Social Research in Development Programs: Examples from India ........................ 247 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd Polling in Developing Democracies – The Case of the Philippines ....... 267 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez Māori Television Services – Raising Knowledge of Māori Language and Culture in New Zealand ........... 281 Elizabeth Vink About the Authors ......................................................................... either in what is ordinarily called politics. We live in a world where global trends affect us all and public opinion seems to be among the key elements shaping our democracies2.Introduction Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar In recent years a number of studies have been published about the globalization process and how it affects our societies. p. 8. Lippmann 1997. More recent studies have also underlined the essential role the media have as the guardians of 1 2 3 Hirst and Thompson 1996. no matter what the basis of election.1 It has been shown how the forces driving the process of cross-national integration started many centuries ago and it has been convincingly demonstrated how this process has accelerated within the last couple of decades due to the growth of information technology.”3 Lippmann. Habermas 1989. more than 80 years later. cannot be worked successfully. expert organization for making the unseen facts intelligible to those who have to make the decisions. in particular. Already back in 1922 Walter Lippmann stated that: “Representative government. unless there is an independent. Giddens 2000. Lippmann 1997. Schirato 2003. Eastern Europe etc. Forester 1993. . Friedman 2005. or in industry. this seems to be as true as ever. the opening of markets in Asia. referred to the free press as the key institution for the articulation of public opinion and today. p. surely would not agree with this. Nicolas Chamfort. mainly from political parties. interest groups and other “insider4 5 6 Habermas 1989. 129. There are various ways to ensure that political leaders and officials stay in contact with the general public and are held accountable for their actions. The importance of free and fair elections can hardly be underestimated in modern democracies since they represent the very essence of democracy and political representation. The problem we encounter today.4 In democracies it is the voice of the people that counts and that is why public-opinion polling is closely linked to democracy.6 Public meetings have traditionally served as mechanisms for encouraging citizens to express their views on specific political issues and obliging politicians and public officials to justify political actions. As citizens. In his view “the public opinion is the worst of all opinions”5. In the democracies of today it is of vital importance for governments to be in line with the views of the voters. which ruled in the aristocracy and intellectual elite of the eighteenth century. At the same time. . is that public meetings seem to attract an all the more limited group of people. we clearly need more discriminating instruments to enforce political representation and accountability. Hjelmar. however. an eighteenth century French philosopher. Chamfort held the view that if an opinion could appeal to a majority it had to be not common sense. Elections provide the most essential element of this process. it is evident that democratic elections – even if they work flawlessly – are insufficient in terms of ensuring political representation and accountability since elections are exercised only at outstretched intervals and are usually decided by summary judgments rather than reactions to particular acts. Forester 1993.2 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar democracy and the guarantee that citizens can express their views and have an open and rational debate. Hilmer and Mueller-Hilmer 2006. de Botton 2004. but common nonsense. Democracy soon changed this elitist point of view. According to ESOMAR and WAPOR. This view of the political representation process emphasizes the benefits of market orientation: first and foremost the necessity for political parties to understand those it seeks to serve and deliver a product that reflects their needs and wants8. For the media it is an effective way of integrating the views of citizens in the public debate and a powerful way of creating news and setting the agenda. Lees-Marshment 2004. Traditional democratic mechanisms do not seem to be sufficiently distinctive and cohesive to fulfil the prerequisites of an effective system of political representation and this. For NGO’s and other stakeholders in the public debate it is a prime instrument to demonstrate support for specific viewpoints and to try to influence the political agenda. we would argue. the views expressed at such meetings are seldom representative of the electorate7. restrictions on the conduct or publication of opinion 7 8 Hjelmar. . has led to an increase in magnitude and importance of public-opinion polling in modern democracies. The close link between public-opinion polls and democracy is also underlined by the fact that public-opinion polls are heavily restricted in countries without democracy. For the public sector it is becoming an essential tool to measure expectations and satisfaction with public services. as a result. For politicians.Introduction 3 groups”. public opinion polls are very effective in terms of showing how citizens view existing policies and how policies could be changed in order to be more in line with “the will of the people”. Hilmer and Mueller-Hilmer 2006. Public-opinion polling seems to be one of the essential ways of expressing and defining public opinion in society today. The political elite needs a more direct relationship with its voters and is therefore tending towards a basic virtue of democracy: to listen to the needs and demands of citizens and link these directly back to policy-making. It is becoming increasingly difficult to attract citizens at the margins of society to political meetings and. Public-opinion polling helps to fill this void. allowing an increase in service efficiency and performance. they are increasingly seen as “consumers” of political and public-sector services. It has created a bigger focus on the needs of users in a situation where you often have a single-source supplier relationship and users have few other options. As a result of this. McLaughlin 2002. Each public organization is in theory able to respond to its own individual market and customers in an effective way.4 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar polls are typical of non-democratic countries while more democratic countries tend to oppose censorship in this area9 Another factor which contributes to the rise in public-opinion polling across the democratic world is the change we are currently witnessing among citizens in modern societies. No longer simply citizens. This recent development in the public sector has led to a more dynamic public sector. Institutional reforms which are 9 10 ESOMAR/WAPOR 2006. Publicsector organizations have been given responsibility for service delivery and have had service delivery separated from policy input and control (a policy/provider divide). Public management has in recent years been strongly influenced by new ways of managing public bureaucracies which break with bureaucratic virtues of central control and adherence to rules10. . expectations and behavior of the public and adjust every aspect of the organization to align with customer values. Benchmark data about user satisfaction have also helped organizations to monitor progress and create an urgency to improve in a non-competitive market situation. Publicopinion polling fits nicely into this new management regime: it allows managers to address the needs. The responsibility for the service delivery implies that public organizations have become responsible for the management of their own daily operations – and are judged by their results. Barzelay 2001. the ability to prioritize has been considerably improved in the public sector. Consumers demand new products and new services and markets and the public sector adapt as quickly as they can.Introduction 5 most likely to achieve their objective and contribute to user satisfaction are given priority today. It has been pointed out that a person’s interest as a “consumer” is only one part of their status as a citizen: consumers have desires or needs while citizens have rights and duties as well. Viewed through a lens of consumer agency. police. national defense etc. Some public organizations do not deliver a “service” but rather administer democratic values in accordance with the law. it becomes clear how global markets and politics seem to be more influenced than ever by rapid changes in consumer demand. Eckhardt and Mahi 2004. hospitals. prisons. These include institutions such as courts. bus services. Consumers have largely been left out of the globalization debate: they have been viewed as pawns of governments and multinational corporations. . day care. In cases where the delivery of services is outweighed by public administration and control functions the use of public-opinion polling and market research are obviously more limited. At the same time this New Public Management approach to public governance has been criticized for applying free market thinking to the public sector by looking at citizens as plain consumers11. Public-opinion polling has its most obvious use in cases where the main purpose of the organization is to deliver a service and a form of “free market” exists with other possible suppliers: train transport. This is 11 12 Benyon and Edwards 1999. education services. Another important element in the shift in discourse from “citizens” to “consumers” is the globalization process. The main actors in the globalization process have widely been considered to be governments and multi national corporations12 What is emerging now is a third and independent agent in the globalization process: the consumer. care for the elderly etc. Ultimately. One example of cross-national consumer trends is the growing usage of social marketing. India. Canada. We have collected a number of case studies from all over the world to further qualify this line of discussion. we focus on the role of opinion polls in different regions of the world. Cowling argues that we need new democratic tools to solve this crisis in democracy and illustrates how opinion polls could play a part in this process. Today. In total. this can help .6 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar perhaps not new in a number of Western countries. the book contains 12 in-depth case studies from Argentina. the United Kingdom and the United States. Sweden. a government ambition to minimize public budgets. Governments tend to use more and more social marketing in order to change people’s behavior (stop smoking. As a result. Indonesia. the Balkans. ministers prefer to formulate policies on the basis of some kind of evidence to ensure that policies prove efficient when implemented and don’t backfire on governments. and shifts in consumer orientation happen more abruptly than before and with much more momentum. driven by people’s need to feel safe and avoid risks and. In the article by Carballo and De Voogd it is shown how opinion polls can help to understand the political environment in the European Union and the United States. International polls.) and these activities are rapidly spreading from country to country. consumers are not as patient and they do not accept authority as readily as before: they demand policies that work. Contributions In the first section. Norway. stop speeding etc. start exercising. New Zealand. France. but what is new is that consumers from all around the world are becoming interconnected. at the same. Policy development is another area where governments give increasing priority to research and publicopinion polling. The first article by Cowling discusses the concept of democracy and how people’s view of democracy has become more negative in recent years. Germany. logistics and statistical models are needed to deliver excellent projections. Jenkins takes us through a four-election period in Canada demonstrating how a specific research tool. United States. Abrasheva demonstrates how a specific survey has played a key role in forming a political development strategy for the region of the Western Balkans’ potential EU accession. and poverty in third world countries. Chelala demonstrates in his article how specific opinion polls. fieldwork. uncommitted electorate that represents a challenge to the future of democratic participation. She concludes that these differences could be the major factor preventing further economic integration in the region. We look at experiences with the use of opinion polls in national elections in four different countries: Germany. In the third section. Teinturier. we take a more country-specific and national approach. the Eurobarometer and European Values Survey. In the second section. Hilmer illustrates how sampling procedures. Conversion Model. Public-opinion polling in national elections. In the final article in this section Jenkins looks at a growing problem in democracy: a disengaged. Finally. The public sector in transition. France and Canada.Introduction 7 Europeans and Americans to find common solutions to international problems such as the fight against terrorism. we focus on the use of opinion polls within the public sector. have been instrumental in the European integration process by continually showing where common values are. can help us understand why this is happening and how deeply rooted this trend is. discusses the presidential elections in France in 2007 and how opinion polls played a decisive role in the campaign of Nicolas Sarkozy. Merkle. Langer and Lambert continue this line of discussion within an American context: they describe the efforts to measure voter preferences in the 2004 presidential elections in the United States with particular emphasis on methodological issues. and the big differences in culture and political viewpoints across the continent. thereby helping the policymaking process in the EU. In his article about exit polls in Germany. in his article. Cilley looks at Latin America in her article. Bielenski shows in his article how opinion polls have played an important role in provid- . Indonesia. Abad and Ramirez show how preelection polls and exit-poll surveys carried out by reputable survey establishments act as safeguards in the Philippines by quickly establishing probable winners. Lindgren and Budd present a new model for evaluating social development work based on TNS’ stakeholder management model. TRI*M. Vink demonstrates in her article how a specific television service has helped to promote the Māori language and culture in New Zealand. the Philippines. In his article Ugland demonstrates how a systematic analysis of client satisfaction can help to improve the quality of public services. to facilitating program intervention design. Quick focuses on a specific program in the United Kingdom: the School Sport Partnership Program. the Tsunami relief effort in Aceh.8 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar ing policy makers with the necessary information in the case of employment policy in Europe. They show how this model was able to deliver insight and clear direction in a complex setting. It looks at all the main phases in development programs: From identifying needs. Finally. highlighting the use of Conversion Model to meet the research requirements. which aims to fight poor diet. thus discouraging unscrupulous politicians from committing election fraud. In the fourth and final section. and New Zealand (the Maori population). lack of exercise and obesity among children. Somayajulu and Mukherji demonstrate in their article how social research has played a key role in India. This article describes the data collection process. to the final evaluation at the end of the specific interventions. Finally in this section Ugland looks at client satisfaction with public services in Norway. Asia on the move. and describes the role which research has played in helping to bring about improvements in this area. We aim to show how social research can play a significant role in the process of transition. the key challenges it presents. Case studies in this section are from India. Indonesia. The article describes the research approach undertaken. . we turn to development programs in fast-growing Asia. to monitoring progress during the course of implementation. vol. The World is Flat. . and Mahi. M. T. The Globalized World in the Twenty-First Century. Electoral research as an instrument to minimize the gap between political leaders and voters – the uses of TRI*M. Critical Theory and Public Life. 2004. vol. 24. Benyon. R. A. T. Hilmer. July 9-13. paper presented at the IPSA World Congress in Fukuoka. Status Anxiety. J. California: The University of California Press. M. Friedman. and Thompson.) 1993. 2006. “Community Governance of Crime Control”. 2. Globalization in Question. R. (ed. New York: Routledge Habermas. Lees-Marshment. G. in Journal of Macromarketing.. The Political Marketing Revolution: is marketing transforming the government of the UK? Manchester: Manchester University Press. K. London: Macmillan. A. and Edwards. Public Opinion. Japan. The New Public Management – Improving Research and Policy Dialogue. 2005. Cambridge: Polity Press Hjelmar. U. in Public Management Review. 1999. (ed. The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere. 2001. Understanding Globalization. Cambridge. A. and Mueller-Hilmer. (2002) “Lesson Drawing from the International Experience of Modernizing Local Governance”. W. Lippmann. 1997. Schirato.): The New Management of British Local Governance. 2004. 4:3. Forester. De Botton. L. The ESOMAR/WAPOR Guide to Opinion Polls including the ESOMAR International Code of Practice for the Publication of Public Opinion Poll Results. MIT: Polity. P. J.Introduction 9 References Barzelay.. McLaughlin. G. 2004. Mass: The MIT Press. Hirst. in Stoker. J. H. G. J. 1996. Giddens. Eckhardt. London: Free Press. Runaway World: How Globalization is Reshaping Our Lives. “The Role of Consumer Agency in the Globalization Process in Emerging Markets”. 1989. ESOMAR/WAPOR 2006. no.. London Sage Publications. Published by ESOMAR/WAPOR. London: Penguin Books. 2003. 2000. London: Hamish Hamilton. 2006. Part 1: International Polls . A sub-definition is “control of a group by the will of a majority of its members”. It is defined in the Oxford Shorter Dictionary as “a form of government in which the people have a voice in the exercise of power”. it changed very little for over 2000 years. a very slow changing concept. The concept of “universal suffrage” is of course even newer – in the United Kingdom women did not get the vote until the 1920’s. Whilst the concept is thousands of years old. 1 Introduction The Greeks had a world for it – democracy comes from Demos (the people) and Kratia (power/rule). Freedom House claims that there was not a single liberal democracy with universal suffrage in the world in 1900. It is shown how public opinion polling has developed as a part of the globalisation process and contributes to the democratic process. This chapter is based on the broad principle that democracy is “rule by the will of the majority”.The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy Tony Cowling Abstract. The article concludes that the concept and perception of democracy is challenged by globalisation and we need to reconsider how democracy should function in the globalised village. and only in the last 100 years or so has it started to go international. globalising world. and . but it is not yet global. which is now confronted by a very fast changing. although today over 100 of the world’s nations claim to be democracies (not even a majority you note). only one (Russia with 41%). the right to vote does not give a voice in the choice “of” candidates. whilst the will of the people is sounded. at village/city/regional level. when TNS has asked questions about voters “satisfaction” with the system of democracy they have. Even in Countries where people have votes. in a number of countries around the world. an aspiration for most people in the world. like “clean water”. However. and is. transferable votes. 80% on average still say it is the “Best option” and in the last poll. et al. I know what the French want …” Or. different things to different cultures. Churchill’s remark that “democracy may not be the best system of government. Further. “Political reform is not necessary … we are a democracy like any other in the world”. this does not culminate in “a vote”. In some countries the right to vote does not imply a choice “between” candidates. opinions are much more divided. out of 60 countries monitored. it means. and in many countries there is a majority of people who are “not satisfied” with the democracy they live in. Zimbabwe’s Justice Minister. Nevertheless. and a choice of candidate. when TNS asks people around the world for their opinion of “democracy”. Hence democracy as defined by the dictionary is still.14 Tony Cowling my French mother-in-law did not have the right to vote until after the Second World War when she was over 50. in much of the Arab world of course. as we have done a number of times over the past few years. leaders still take the view expressed by General De Gaulle in the 1960’s “You have no need to ask the French voters their views. said in August 2007. they get elected on different bases – majority winner. Although claimed by over 100 countries. but it is the best we have …”. in most countries nowadays. as Patrick Chinamassa. proportional representation. and only five countries had less than two-thirds for it. still seems to hold true . had a minority supporting it. and in a quantitative form. and in many cases rapidly responding to. if we accept to the broad principle that democracy is “rule by the will of the majority”. slow changing concept which is now confronted by a very fast changing. we have in most countries a very old.The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy 15 for most people around the world: but then this statement could also be said about the United Nations or global warming. were evolving methods which would tell governments what people felt on social issues. TNS and the other market research companies now monitor on a regular and international basis attitudes to most political issues – hence opinion polling has become a key element of democracy. So. but as TNS surveys show. So. who owe their power and positions to the existing democratic system in their country. communication and voter opinions. slow changing establishment (usually called our “leaders”).and we know many people in the world are aware of the urgent need to address changes to both of these. the effects of globalisation. so I focus on some aspects of survey research. Opinion polling aims to measure the “will of the people”. and Mass Observation in the United Kingdom around the same time. which as a worldwide market research company TNS is actively involved in monitoring. 2 Survey Research and Polling Itself Surveys and polling. Dr George Gallup in the United States during the late 1930’s. particularly in the political and social area. globalising world. then we have a very old. and their likely voting intentions. the only basis (short of an election or referendum) on which the views of the majority can be reliably measured. Surveys are of course the basis. Also. they increasingly lead a society in which a majority are increasingly aware of. . what are these global trends that are changing people’s view of democracy? In this short chapter it is impossible to discuss them all. has expanded across the world almost hand in hand with the rise of universal suffrage and democratic voting. This changes significantly the democratic environment and how it is perceived. the speed with which these views can be gathered and reported (thanks to telecommunications and more recently the internet) has dropped from a few months for Dr Gallup. when a leading politician makes a statement or takes a decision nowadays the response of the people within his country can be measured within hours and the views of the world can be reported within days.16 Tony Cowling One of the effects of globalisation is that over the last 15 years (a very short time in the development of democracy) the market research industry and hence polling has gone global. TNS surveys have regularly monitored people’s attitudes towards the various conflicts in the Middle East. and hence have what approaches to a dialogue between leader and led. particularly in both Israel and Palestine. Hence. a majority of the electorate were “against” an invasion in over 60 countries (including USA and UK). for the leaders to “seek a political solution for peace” – that is the will of a majority of the people. This means the two leaders knew before taking the decision to invade that they were acting “against the will of the majority”. When Bush and Blair indicated their plans to attack Iraq in 2003. TNS now has offices in well over 70 countries around the world. terrorism. become global issues and the world . Third-World poverty. TNS and some of its worldwide partners were able to measure the views of people in 65 countries around the world within just 11 days. Further. to a few weeks in the 1980’s. to a few days in the New Millennium. and monitors the attitudes and opinions of representative samples of votes on a regular basis in many more. In all cases over the past four years there has always been a majority. At that time. trade etc. Let us look at some examples of this. In a perverse way we are getting back to the Greek tradition of being able to bring together the views of the people in real time. As the issues which politicians have to address – drugs. As the world globalises survey research is increasingly a key tool for actually applying the “democratic process”. Added to this expansion of knowledge is the fact that more people are more “educated” – politicians across the world increasingly promote the benefits of better education. The world is awash with data.europa. and certainly and increasingly in many countries. Such that it is now possible for almost anyone. This makes it harder for politicians to justify their decisions by claiming that the electorate cannot understand the complexities of a problem. This growth in education. and there is no need for me to explain how the internet has transformed it's instant availability. . Issue groups and involved individuals rapidly become as knowledgeable as and sometimes more knowledgeable than.The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy 17 is aware of global opinion on them. 3 The Growth of Information and Its Availability There is no need for me to emphasise how the volumes of information the world produces on any subject has expanded over the past few decades. The growth of information also means that politicians can no longer claim not to be aware of their elector’s views or the media’s summary of them. the decision makers.eu/public_opinion/index_en. 1 See http://ec. means of course that people are better able to “make their own judgement on political issues”.htm. so market research surveys are becoming the fastest and most reliable method of monitoring how people feel. The Eurobarometer surveys that TNS regularly does for the European Commission continue to demonstrate that more people have knowledge of and definite views on the decision being taken at Brussels1. the majority of voters to obtain many facts and figures on a given issue as rapidly as (so called) experts. and how their views are evolving on such issues. particularly in the developing world. whilst over the last 100 years it has gone up more than ten-fold. TNS Cymphony. increasingly at a global level. for both political and business leaders. Again the internet allows TNS to deliver this information far more rapidly than previously – typically on a daily basis and if desired. individual websites and social network sites so that leaders can have real-time analysis of the key views and responses emerging from what has become known as Web 2. Yet in most democratic sovereign states there has been little or no change in the frequency with which the voters are . 4 The Volume of Legislation Estimates for the United Kingdom indicate that over the past 50 years the amount of legislation going through the British parliament has increased at least five-fold. In more than 40 countries around the world we provide. This is certainly part of a global trend that in part reflects the complexity of modern life and the number of issues requiring legislation. Hence another mechanism is now in place for democracy – the opportunity for a dialogue. TNS’ American internet company. regular and fast updates on media coverage of: • Key issues they are currently facing • Public reactions to these issues • How these effect voters image and standing of politicians/ leaders. almost instantly. now takes this to a new level – monitoring: blogs. between: • Those who have to make decisions and • The majority who have to live by them.0.18 Tony Cowling TNS Media Intelligence is one of the world’s largest gatherers and analysers of media content. that reflects my views on all of them? Allowing voters to put a tick in a box once every four to five years no longer seems to be democracy enough for an increasingly knowledgable. . the general feeling of electors is one of decreased involvement in and disenfranchisement from political decisions. but the volume and speed with which they legislate has increased dramatically. turn-outs are generally in decline – particularly amongst the young. TNS monitors voter turn-out on a regular basis around the world.net/. Our leaders now do. 5 The Democracy Index This declining trust in the concept of democracy is perhaps best demonstrated by the Democracy Index™ 2. Elections are typically still held with the same frequency as 100 years ago. Not surprising then that when TNS tries to measure and monitor involvement with the political process around the world. educated and informed public.g. This Index is based on 2 See http://www.voice-of-the-people. and the period for which Presidents and Governments are allowed to rule remains typically four or five years and sometimes longer. or pressured to vote. take decisions on issues that did not exist at the time of their election.The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy 19 given the right to exercise their “majority will”. and increasingly must. the current plans by European institutions and Member States’ governments to have a “Reform Treaty” without having had one successful referendum of votes on the issue) • With legislation on so many different issues how can I find one person. Results show that apart from those countries where one is obliged to vote. when you are not consulted on the issues that arise anyway (e. Their views are frequently: • Why vote. or one party. voice-of-the-people. Nowadays. the highest scores for elections being “free and fair” are typically in Western Europe (73%) and North America (61%) – in most other parts of the world the average falls below 50%.net. there are nearly 40% who believe they live in a country “where the 3 For further info. in the 70 countries in which TNS last did this study4. “is your country ruled by the will of the people” we get an even larger majority saying “no”! This figure is high in Eastern Europe (86%) and Africa (77%) but perhaps most surprisingly it is also high (72%) in Western Europe.3 As one might expect a majority of people in the world (54%) consider that elections in their country are free and fair. when we asked people the question. . However. Also as one might expect.20 Tony Cowling Table 1. see www. The Democracy Paradox Elections are free and fair? YES West Europe Middle East (Israel – Turkey) North America The World Asia Pacific Latin America West Asia East & Central Europe Africa 73% 69% 61% 54% 47% 45% 36% 29% 23% Ruled by the will of the people? No 72% 47% 54% 67% 69% 68% 60% 86% 77% the following two questions which have been asked on a number of occasions in approximately 60-70 countries throughout the world. and so. France (50%) and New Zealand (49%).g. and having free and comparatively fair elections seems to be a great step forward. 4 5 China was the only large country excluded from this study – because of the difficulty of asking such questions there.5 In these countries one might consider the country to be still in the honeymoon period. at the same time. and Russia. not being “ruled by the will of the people”. “democratic” system! Perhaps surprisingly those countries most pleased with democracy are often ones where it is a comparatively new process. . but where many people consider their country held back by a slow moving. Holland (59%). and • The concept of democracy as people understand the word (i. The Democracy Index for these countries indicates why these people might not bother to vote? These countries most clearly show the gap that is building up in the perceptions of electorates between: • The system used for electing leaders in modern sovereign states. However. Nigeria. Cameroon. Kosovo. Ukraine.The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy 21 elections are not free and fair”. and Kenya. Whilst only about 25% of people in the world put themselves in this group. “a form of government in which the people have a voice in the exercise of power”). on the one hand. “the country is not ruled by the will of the people”. E. UK (51%). over complicated. those countries with a very high score include: Germany (63%). maybe not surprisingly. India (62%). Afghanistan. The countries at the top of this “mal-contents” group include. is also included: at first surprising until one looks at some of the other surveys done in India which show a country with dramatically rising ambitions and expectations for a more prosperous economic future. An interesting group consists of those countries that come high on both “having free and fair elections” but.e. TNS increasingly finds larger number of electors dissatisfied with the “democracy they live under”.worldpublicopinion. In a globalised world where we are moving towards the globalised village with survey research and information systems delivering the possibility of real time dialogues between the people of the world and it's leaders.e.6 In ancient Rome and ancient Greece it was difficult for the leaders to go forward with their proposed actions and decisions unless they had the support of the people. see http://www. figures on key political issues happening in the world • increasing awareness of the opinions and attitudes of fellow electors.org. a recent review of polls in the USA concluded that on a number of international issues a majority of Americans were dissatisfied with their government’s stance. the concept of democracy appears to be in need of a serious make-over. the public • the rapid turnaround of opinion polls – hence politicians and their electors being aware of “the will of the majority”. All these factors contribute to changing people’s expectations of what democracy is and should be! Hence when we monitor people’s “satisfaction” with the democratic process. 6 For further info. At the same time. TNS found last year that less in one in ten Canadians could agree “we are satisfied with the democratic process in our country”.22 Tony Cowling 6 Concluding Remarks We have suggested that some of the main effects of globalisation are drivers for change in our democratic systems: • better educated and knowledgeable electorates • faster and almost immediate access to massive amounts of facts. i. . begs the question: Do the leaders who have achieved power through the old system have the desire or will to move us closer to a democratic concept as defined by the ancient Greeks? . of course.The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy 23 This. Americans and Europeans are interested in finding solutions to international problems. Most Americans and Europeans perceive free trade positively and believe it can pull nations out of poverty. although there are concerns about the impacts of opening markets. Differences arise. however. And beyond the terrain of mutual understand- . Key findings of the Transatlantic Trends Survey conducted by TNS in 2006 show that large majorities of Americans and Europeans agree on the importance of global threats. Europeans and Americans show strong support for continuing efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd Abstract. 1 Introduction The problems of great topical interest could be perceived differently on the two shores of the Atlantic Ocean. Citizens on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean also agree that efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons should continue. between such a broad goal and concrete measures such as lowering tariff barriers or the issue of how to deal with the flow of immigrants from the poorer to the most advanced economies. especially those becoming from Islamic fundamentalism. both have worries regarding terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism and broadly agree about the benefits of free trade as a tool to fight poverty and promote a more equitable global economy. being the fight against terrorism and poverty good examples of this concern. and reject military action as the best option to achieve this. The bombings of trains at Madrid’s Atocha railway station as well as the terrorist attack in the London underground. The attack on the World Trade Center on 9/11 was the main element fueling these concerns. the gap between the reported improvement in transatlantic relations at the official level and contrary views among the European public and Americans may simply reflect a time lag in the perception of change. the survey revealed. followed by the aborted plot against flights taking-off from Heathrow Airport could well explain the increase in the Britons’ . Likewise. the persistence among Europeans of a poor view of US President George W. where the increase was 22 percentage points. Bush may indicate that their minds are made up and that the emergence of a new context in the transatlantic relationship may have to wait until the 2008 US presidential election.26 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd ing most citizens declare that they would not like to live in a country other than their own. with only 15% of Americans and 5% of Europeans seeing military action as the best option to achieve this. despite their fairly favorable views of some aspects of the globalization process. Looking ahead. 2 The Neighbors Across the Ocean According to a study conducted by TNS on behalf of the German Marshall Fund of the US: “large majorities of Americans and Europeans agree on the importance of global threats. led by the United Kingdom. with the largest increase over the past year in those who see Islamic fundamentalism as an extremely important threat.” Transatlantic Trends Survey – Key Findings 2006 79% of Americans and 84% of Europeans also agreed that efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons should continue. However. with particularly sharp fall-offs in support in Germany and Italy. while support for EU leadership has remained strong since 2002 Europeans were divided over how it should play that role. 63% of Europeans agreed that further enlargement of the European Union would help it play a more important role in world affairs and a similar percentage believed it would promote peace and democracy. . 1 Spain and Slovakia were not included in the survey in 2002. from 68% positive to 43% between 2002 and 2006. with 46% who thought the EU should strengthen its military power and 51% who disagreed – accordingly. Negative attitudes toward Bush have also increased in the US where. According to the 2006 Transatlantic Trends survey. 44%). Only three European countries considered US leadership more positively than negatively: the Netherlands (51 vs. the German Marshall Fund survey pointed out – and those who viewed it as ‘undesirable’ went from 31% to 57%. which dropped sharply since 2002 when it stood at 64% of those surveyed to 37% in 2006. 45%). Europeans’ second thoughts about the US have consequently eroded support for Washington leadership. however.Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 27 worries about terrorism – as well as the expectations regarding the US role and the debate over the Bush administrations’ policies. for the first time since 2002. The greatest decline was in Germany. European support for NATO fell from 69% in 20021 to 55% in 2006. where perceptions’ of the administration’s handling of international affairs has fallen from 38% positive in 2002 to 18% in 2006 (as against 37% positive for US leadership). Romania (47 vs. whose rating dropped markedly – there was a 19 percentage-point gap between the positive views regarding the US and Bush. distinguished between their opinion about US leadership in world affairs and their evaluation of President Bush. more Americans in 2006 disapprove (58%) than approve (40%) the way he handles international policies. The European public. 35%) and the United Kingdom (48 vs. Source: Transatlantic Trends Survey – Key Findings 2006 In this context. These feelings. majorities of Europeans agreed that further enlargement of the EU would help it to play a more important role on the world stage (63%) promote peace and democracy along its borders. did not have a direct correlation to a shared European idea of how the EU should exert greater influence and leadership.the Transatlantic Trends survey carried out by TNS in 2006 also showed that a majority of Europeans (55%) supported a more independent approach to security and diplomatic affairs between the US and the EU. but also a majority (58%) felt that enlargement renders the development of a common European identity even more difficult. Views of President Bush. Likewise. . compared to 50% in 2004. Romania (85%) and Bulgaria (82%). The largest percentages in favor of the further enlargement were found among the two most recent EU member states. 1 & 2.28 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd Fig. European Views of US Leadership in World Affairs & Views of US Leadership vs. however. There were also differences of opinion as regards whether . Overall support for strong leadership in world affairs has remained very high since 2002 – 81% of respondents saw EU leadership as desirable in that year and 76% thought the same in 2006. while 46% backed this option. Large majorities of Americans and Europeans continued to agree on the importance of a wide range of international threats in the next ten years. including international Fig. Source: Transatlantic Trends Survey – Key Findings 2006 . Concerns about international terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism were further heightened after the subway bombings in London. France (56%) and Poland (51%). Threat Perception in the US and Europe. Fifty-one percent of respondents disagreed with the notion of more military power. Despite differences about the means of achieving a safer international environment. while the lowest level was found in Germany (35%). Americans and Europeans agreed basically on the major threats they were facing.Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 29 the EU should strengthen its military power or concentrate on economic power. with the highest support in Portugal (68%). attacks on European embassies and consulates in the Middle East following a Danish newspaper publishing cartoons of the prophet Mohammed and the thwarted plot to destroy transatlantic airliners. 3. although support for the use of force increased significantly (to 53% of respondents in America and 45% in Europe) should peaceful means fail to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. respectively). Differences arose when asked about the best means to achieve that goal. Likewise. making it more of a menace than continued violence and instability in Iraq (56 and 45% in America and Europe. the countries leading negotiations with Iran for the EU. the global spread of diseases. The German Marshall Fund Survey also showed that only a small percentage (15% in the US. . while 46% of Europeans ranked economic incentives as the most desirable option. violence and instability in Iraq and the prospect of a nuclear Iran. there was a preference for just one of the two depending on which side of the Atlantic. Islamic fundamentalism. Seventy nine percent of Americans and 84% of Europeans agreed that efforts by the US and the EU to prevent Teheran from becoming a nuclear power should continue. the public here would also support the use of military power should other options fail and in the case of France and the UK (54 and 46%) levels are even above the European average. The largest shifts in perceived threats on both sides of the Atlantic between 2005 and 2006 were increases in those who see Islamic fundamentalism as an ‘extremely important’ menace (with a 13 percentage-point rise in the US and in Europe).30 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd terrorism. Most concerned were the Britons. who registered a 22 percentage-point increase. Germany and the United Kingdom. the Italians (19 points) and the Spaniards (12 points). The largest percentage of Americans (36%) preferred economic sanctions. Forty percent of Germans would approve of deploying force under such circumstances. Rather than a ‘stick and carrot’ approach. the growing power of China. In France. larger percentages of Americans than Europeans saw Iran acquiring nuclear weapons as an extremely important threat (75 and 58% respectively). five percent in Europe) favored military action to keep Iran in check. Support for Military Force if Diplomacy Fails and EU3 Support for Efforts to Prevent Nuclear Iran vs. Anti-Americanism ‘is an elusive phenomenon. And the erosion for support of American leadership and much more markedly of President Bush’s handling of international matters should not be automatically translated as a sign of Anti-Americanism on the rise. the largest percentages in the US (36%) and Europe (47%) agreed that the United Nations could best handle the issue yet on both sides of the Atlantic a willingness to accept a nuclear Iran was expressed (32% in the US. Take Military Action if Diplomacy Fails. The survey showed a shared understanding about the main challenges facing Europeans and Americans. 37% in Europe) rather than resorting to force. 4 & 5. .’2 People ‘can entertain quite complex and critical views of what the United States does and still have a general positive affective ori2 Isernia 2005. As Pierangelo Isernia has pointed out.Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 31 Fig. Source: Transatlantic Trends Survey – Key Findings 2006 However. Support for Efforts to Prevent Nuclear Iran vs. according to the 2006 survey Perspec3 European Elites Survey – survey of Members of the European Parliament and top European Commission officials (also conducted by TNS in 2006). Isernia’s research also highlighted ‘the rapidity with which antiAmerican sentiments recede in the public mind. .’ If Anti-Americanism ‘is a psychological predisposition to negatively evaluate the United States.32 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd entation toward it. this sentiment ‘is not rooted in firm beliefs about the United States and its role. mostly related to what the American government does in foreign policy than by emotional or instinctual anti-American reflex. Americans failed to be upbeat about economic prospects. Italy and the United Kingdom. Europeans. Most Americans and Europeans tend to perceive free trade as a lever which can pull nations out of poverty. Anti-Americanism appears rather shaped by contextual factors. One in five (21%) thought 2007 would be a year of economic prosperity. rather than being anti-American were increasingly puzzled and concerned by the direction US foreign policy has been taking.’ However. it might last longer and take deeper and wider roots and ramifications. data over more than forty years leads us to think that it is quite a minority view in France. In Western Europe only 17% thought 2007 would bring prosperity. Germany. although there were concerns about the impact of opening markets – in spite of a majority who saw globalization positively. If elites3 were not ready to denounce it. while almost four out of ten said unemployment would go up either a lot or a little in the US. probably because there was considerable anxiety about industrial unrest – almost half Western Europeans (46%) expected to see an increase in strikes and industrial disputes in 2007 and only seven percent believed they would decrease.’ he added. Fighting Poverty All Europeans were gloomy about the economy.’ 3 Boosting Trade. German. a 6-7 percentage-point increase with respect to 20054. Italian and Polish respondents were largely responsible for driving the overall European consensus towards support for international trade and declared they appreciate the benefits of freer trade. believed it would enable their countries businesses to access new markets for national products. Similarly. Fifty-two percent of Americans and 53% of Europeans believed they would personally benefit from freer trade. This trend was confirmed in all countries surveyed. Polish and Slovak respondents were divided on this question but vis-à-vis their American and French counterparts. views on international trade have become more favorable in most countries. Respondents tended to prefer to associate development funds with recipient countries active in fighting poverty. Slovakia was not part of this research. Italian. promoting democracy and opening their markets. Globalization fears seemed to have waned to some extent but many remained ambivalent. and 82% in Europe. while 78% in the US and 76% in Europe thought freer trade led to lower prices and more product choices for consumers. even if that meant foregoing faster economic growth. although to a lesser extent. Germany (46 to 53%). In the US. positive views about the benefits of freer trade were not without their reservations. There was also a high consensus (71% in the US. 71% of Americans and 75% of Europeans expressed a positive opinion – British. 78%. more of them advocated lowering trade barriers in order to spur economic growth. A majority of respondents in the US and France believed that trade barriers should be kept to protect businesses.Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 33 tives on Trade and Poverty Reduction conducted by TNS on behalf of the German Marshall Fund. However. 4 In 2005. a viewpoint shared by American respondents. the United Kingdom (47 to 53%) and the United States (46 to 52%). 72% in Europe) about freer trade being an instrument to make the world more stable by putting people from different countries in contact with each other. . In some cases the rise was notable: Italy (from 51 to 61%). British. Keep Trade Barriers vs. 7. EU Population More Favorable Toward International Trade. Key Findings Report 2006 . Remove Trade Barriers. Key Findings Report 2006 Fig. Source: German Marshall Found. Source: German Marshall Found.34 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd Fig. 6. with one in five Americans saying that no such restrictions should be put in place (28% in Slovakia and 31% in Poland). On the other hand. German and Italian respondents were most concerned about the negative impact of freer trade on their food supply. and just over half of Germans wished to keep barriers nonetheless. The US and Europe account for 67% of worldwide domestic support for farmers. most of them depending on farming for their income. Along with those in the UK. more Europeans than Americans thought that there should be limits to farm subsidies – the US were among those who advocated the strongest support for unlimited payments to farmers. Large subsidies and steep tariffs make agriculture one of the most distorted sectors in the global trade system.Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 35 even if that might put national businesses at risk. The survey has shown that when it came to further trade liberalization. Respondents in France and the US also expressed the greatest concerns over trade-related job losses – 59% of Americans and 58% of French respondents agreed that freer trade cost more jobs than it created. which became a keystone of the New Deal in order to pull the US out of the Great Depression of the 1930s. while the US and the UK were the only countries where at least one in two believed that freer trade had a positive rather than negative effect on food quality and variety. All face these high barriers to competing in the global economy and for this reason agriculture is where trade. More than half of Western Europeans believed that freer trade reduced food quality and variety because small and specialized producers were unable to compete with large multinational companies. development and poverty reduction most clearly intersect. French. they voiced their concern that environmental and labor standards put them at a disadvantage when engaging in freer trade – 63% in the US and 69% in France agreed on this point. Agricultural policy emerged as one of the most controversial issues. . However. about 75% of the world’s poor live in rural areas. just less than two in three Europeans and Americans believe this would help support economic growth and competing in the global economy. 36 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd Fig. Opinions Toward Agriculture Subsidy Payments.oecd. . 8. Regarding aid. although British. Key Findings Report 2006 The US and the European countries (providers of four out of five development assistance dollars) continue to show strong support for giving money to poor countries.’ This would take it ‘from a little under 80 billion in 2004 to approaching 130 billion dollars in 2010’.00.html.2340. Polish and American respondents still trailed their Italian and French counterparts. official development assistance from the main OECD donors will increase by 50 billion dollars in round numbers. the leading advocates of development assistance. The Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has recently estimated that ‘on the assumption that the major OECD donors deliver on their public statements.org/document/25/0. Source: German Marshall Found.en_2649_33721_3531714 5_1_1_1_1. Respondents in Germany expressed the lowest levels of positive views on this subject – 40% were against this and 45% opposed the idea that recipient nations could set their own priorities when spending the funds.5 5 See http://www. The OECD report warned: ‘These figures are impressive.00. They also accorded an equal level of importance to aid that helps with disaster relief (34% and 33% respectively). but they do need to be treated with some caution. Given the pressures on public budgets in many OECD countries. they favored aid priorities that support geopolitical goals.’6 Both Americans and Europeans placed strong emphasis on alleviating poverty and attacking health problems as a reason for granting aid7. emphasizing issues like terrorism. When asked about encouraging democracy. Americans were a little less focused on poverty alleviation. preventing breeding grounds for terrorism and contributing to global stability as reasons for giving aid. Already.oecd.org/document/25/0. . ‘as a proportion of Gross National Income.html. In this question. respondents were asked to select the top three most important reasons for granting aid to poor countries.50% achieved in the early years’ of the DAC’ s existence – it was created in 1960. However. global stability and gaining allies as top motives for development assistance. 6 7 See http://www.en_2649_33721_3531714 5_1_1_1_1. More than half of them mentioned these as a justification for development assistance. taking the level of aid to that continent alone to around 50 billion in 2010.2340.Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 37 The sharpest percentage increase was likely to be in Africa. American and European support ranged from 27% to 38%.36% for OECD members as a whole) remains well below the level of over 0. Certain differences across the Atlantic were however observed. Instead. several OECD countries had announced that they would double their own aid to Africa over the next few years. health issues. the report added. For many donors they imply that aid will be perhaps the most rapidly raising element of public spending year after year. democracy promotion and helping poor countries trade than Europeans. delivering such increases will be a challenge. the level in 2010 (0. to the tune of an additional 25 billion dollars. However. was whether the recipient was a democracy. Key Findings Report 2006 A key factor to favor aid for poor countries. 9. with nearly 90% viewing this kind of assistance favorably – although granting money to countries with non-democratic regimes has gained traction in the US. Support for aid to democracies increased both in the US and Europe. Most Important Reasons for Giving Aid. Source: German Marshall Found. the survey showed. which showed that 71% of Europeans supported democracy promotion (24% did not) as against 45% in the US. when asked if they would continue to hold these views if it was likely that an Islamic fundamentalist leader would be elected European support . The divergences were highlighted by the 2006 Transatlantic Trends survey carried out by TNS. Likewise.38 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd Fig. 59% of Americans and 60% of Europeans would continue to support democracy promotion even if the countries in question would be more likely to oppose US or EU policies. where 48% said they opposed such initiatives. The numbers of immigrants have been steadily increasing over the last years. overall. while 53% of Americans agreed. Fifty-six percent of Americans and 58% of Europeans felt the values of Islam were not compatible with the values of their country’s democracy – the highest percentages among Europeans were in Germany (67%). Austria (65.1%) – the figure for the US was 11. medicine and technology. Half of Americans (52%) and 68% of Europeans believed that immigrant workers were often unemployed and a burden on social services. as shown in the next table.2% increase between 2000 and 2004). The flow of immigrants from less advanced countries was also a source of concern. respondents voiced more concern over the social costs of immigration than their American counterparts. The 2007 edition of the OECD´s Fact book revealed that the inflow of foreign nationals to OECD countries had risen on average 22% between 2000 and 2004. six in ten respondents in the US and Europe believe that the problem was with specific Islamic groups not with Islam in general. The preferred Western European destinations for migrant workers have been Spain (with a 95. Although. In every European country surveyed. On the other hand.2%). . The trend is however widespread. the United Kingdom (66. The Perspectives on Trade and Poverty Reduction also highlighted worries about social costs and the negative impact on wages – Americans and Europeans perceived that unskilled-worker wages were more exposed to risk as a result of immigrant workers than those of skilled-worker wages.2%) and France (49. most people in the US and Europe also agreed that immigrant workers created new businesses that added value to the economy and contributed to the success of industries like science. The Transatlantic Trends showed that 79% of Americans and 78% of Europeans agreed that large numbers of immigrants coming into their country was an important threat.3%. Spain and Italy (62% in both cases).Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 39 dropped to 33%. 9 195.6 111.40 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd Table 1. 2007 122. 10.0 1201.8 Fig.1 131. Key Findings Report 2006 . Inflow of Foreign Nationals in OECD Countries YEAR 2000=100 OECD average Czech Republic Poland Spain United Kingdom Austria France Australia United States Germany Source: OECD Fact Book. Source: German Marshall Found.2 149.2 165.9 231.3 92.2 166. Immigration and Its Effect over Skilled and Unskilled Workers. America Contested. The aim to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons illustrates this: 36% of Americans preferred economic sanctions while 46% of Europeans identified economic incentives as the most favorable option. The image of the US government has not recovered since the American intervention in Iraq.org/doc/GMF_TradeSurvey%202006. in S.gmfus. that Europeans tend to detach their image of the US in general from their opinions about the administration in Washington. The Limits and Future of American Unilateralism. Americans and Europeans remain partners. main differences reside in the conception of the means to tackle these concerns. Military action and economic sanctions are often favored in the US whereas the public in Europe tend not to opt for a military approach. In many ways. Key Findings 2006 at http://www. The fight against terrorism. Americans and Europeans have common interests in finding solutions to international problems. This is an indication of the limited nature of the current crisis in the EU-US relationship.Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences 41 4 Conclusions The information available from the different surveys presented here shows that transatlantic relations are complex. allies and most of the time friends. P. It has to be taken into account. particularly in Western Europe. however. a Survey of Public Opinion. friendship should be considered as the possibility for both parties to accept that they can think differently from time to time. 2005. . However. Key Findings Report 2006.pdf Isernia. Fabbrini (ed). Perspectives on Trade and Poverty Reduction. London. References German Marshall Fund 2006. Europeans are much more in line in this issue with the citizens in the United States than with the United States government. “Anti-Americanism and European Public Opinion”. religious fundamentalism and poverty are good examples of this. OECD.42 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd OECD Factbook 2007. org/trends/doc/2006_TT_Key%20Findings%20FINAL. http://www.transatlantictrends.pdf . Transatlantic Trends – Key Findings 2006. Robert Schumann reflected this as early as 19501 in what is considered the declaration which underpinned the creation of the European Union. It is shown how the European Union has evolved from a union of a geographical entity or a single market to become more and more a human community and a union of people with common values derived from cultural diversity. shared history and collective destinies. In doing so. This chapter draws a map of the values of Europeans. . Paris: Declaration of 9 may 1950. Solidarity amongst nations has also been highlighted as a founding stone of the Community. Here he pointed out that “the contribution which an organized and living Europe can bring to civilization is indispensable to the maintenance of peaceful relations”. 1 Introduction The different stages of the post-war construction of Europe have been articulated around a number of values.A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives Pascal Chelala Abstract. the first and most obvious of these being peace. 1 Robert Schuman – Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Quai d’Orsay. I draw particularly upon existing literature and Europe-wide surveys such as the Eurobarometer and the European Values Survey. Understanding value sets is essential in comprehending the (common) identity of a community of people and the reasons why its citizens act in a particular way rather than in another. its values and the well-being of its people. 1. the European Union has enlarged its membership. and justice …’. ‘The Union’s aim is to promote peace. In 2005. yet they are recognized as the decisive force that drives societies.2 ‘Values’ are often hard to define. Source: Eurobarometer 66 – Autumn 2006 2 Art I-1. 2 Subjective Perception of Shared Values Over the past half-century. Art I-3.44 Pascal Chelala Fifty years later. from the original six countries to twenty-seven as of Fig.1&2.2 ‘the Union shall be open to all European States which respects its values and are committed to promoting them together’. security. . Shared Values in the EU. this view of shared values and objectives was to become a major pillar of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe. The Union shall offer to its citizens an area of freedom. a wide range of the current principles and practices of the European Union make reference either directly or indirectly to a set of fundamental values. This is particularly true of Slovakia. Indeed. However. it is a fact that the conception of a moral duty of work is declining in the .A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 45 2007. stands at the other side of the hierarchy. In other words. with the second highest proportion (60%) of respondents who feel that Member States are distant from each other. a significant proportion of citizens believe that they are indeed close to their fellow Europeans in terms of shared values. Its Member States undoubtedly share a common historical and cultural background. we start by looking at what is often referred to as “traditional personal values”. These often show a notably wider consensus on the most important values in the lives of EU citizens. this is expressed moderately by Citizens of the EU. Several attempts have been made to identify the fields that people consider to be especially important in their lives. this mixed picture in terms of the subjective perception of shared closeness in values is somewhat contradicted by the objective findings of other surveys. with 71% of its citizens feeling that the Member States are close in terms of shared values. however. To highlight the shared cultural proximity of the European countries. We observe that. Looking in greater depth at the dynamics of personal values. a founding member of the European Union. in several countries. The results of the Eurobarometer conducted in 2003 show the significant consensus that exists within all the European states as regards the importance of the family in the structure of citizens’ values. for 82% of respondents the family emerged very clearly as the fundamental element of respondents’ lives. the balanced nature of opinion at EU level masks a wide range of views evident in individual countries. As we shall see. with a relative majority (48%) believing that the Member States are close to each others in terms of shared values. well ahead of health and work. France. however.5 EU15 NMS 82% 82% 58% 63% 39% 35% 29% 25% 19% 16% 21% 24% The family Health Work Friendship A partner Money Education Spare time/holidays Religion The arts/culture Sport Sexuality Politics 4% 2% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 9% 13% 10% 7% 8% 13% Fig. It is striking to see that. edited by Ronald Inglehart. Work remains. .46 Pascal Chelala Which three of the following are the most important to you? Source Eurobarometer 60. the economically active population and the unemployed have views that are somewhat closer than one would perhaps expect. this is especially the case when it comes to the role of work in society and its importance in peoples’ lives.1/Candidate Countries EB 2003. Human beliefs and values: a cross cultural sourcebook on the 1999 – 2002 value surveys. Loek Halman and Ruud Luijkx „the aspects of life considered very important: Work”. Miguel Basanez. an important means of self-fulfilment and an important cornerstone to build one’s social identity on. This evolution finds its roots in the continuous economic development of Europe over the last two decades. 3 This is shown in the last 2 waves the European Values Survey 19901999. 2. on a lot of questions related to work. As demonstrates in table 1. Importance of Values European Union3. Jaime Diez-Medrano. During the negotiation stages of the draft text of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe. religious and humanist inheritance of Europe. As shown in figure 3. Eventually. . equality and the rule of law’4. While on average a majority (52%) of Europeans believes that there is a God. democracy. freedom. the main cleavage is between Northern and 4 Treaty establishing a Consitution for Europe : Preamble (Official Publications of the European Communities 2005). However studies into the values of Europeans reveal that religion has become ever more distant from individuals’ daily lives in societies that are increasingly secular in nature. Importance of Work Please say for each of the following how important it is in your life? Answer: Work Self-employed Managers Other white collars Manual workers Unemployed Source: Special Eurobarometer 273: Social Reality Important 97% 98% 96% 96% 86% 47 The Christian heritage is undeniably a part of European culture. Religious beliefs are unevenly spread in Europe. from which have developed the universal values of the inviolable and inalienable rights of the human person. the extent and intensity of this belief are not the same throughout the continent.A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives Table 1. the approved document recognized in its preamble that the EU draws ‘inspiration from the cultural. several Member States (led by Poland and Italy) were in favour of a clear mention of Christian heritage and values in the final text. Source: Eurobarometer 66 – Autumn 2006 Southern Europe. Religious Beliefs.48 Pascal Chelala Fig. freedom. Shared values are believed not only to be the backbone of the common identity of European citizens5. the institutional activities of the European Union have consistently put common values at the heart of the European construction. but also an important objective of the Union as a whole6. The exceptions to this are Ireland and Poland where the proportions of citizens believing in God are also very high (respectively 73% and 80%). Article I-2 „The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity. 5 The Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe. with considerably higher proportions of believers in latter. de- . 3. 3 Collective and Contextual Values In the last years. Europe was born out of that. democracy (both 38%) and peace (36%). 2003 France) While this result regarding peace seems unsurprising and selfevident. for whom personally peace is the most important value (52%) with human rights in third place (41%) and democracy (24%) in fourth place. the rule of law and respect of human rights … These values are common to the Member States …” The Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe. and positively echoes the founding values set by the architects of the House of Europe. it was to avoid another being waged.” (Focus group. A qualitative study carried out in the former 15 Member states confirms how fundamental the values of peace is for citizens and how it underpins European identity: “It was the purpose of the creation of the European Community. Article I-3 „The Union’s aim is to promote peace. equality. It is interesting to see that the values ascribed to the European Union to a large extent match the personal values of its citizens. which are the three most important values for you personally? (MAX. peace stands as being the most cherished by Europeans personally. and to a more or less equal extent: human rights. It’s Europe’s fundamental value. 6 7 . Ultimately.A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 49 In this context. it does give a good explanation of the ideas that citizens have of the European Union. 3 ANSWERS)” „Which three of the following values best represent the European union? (MAX. it is important to understand the extent to which European citizens perceive these values as being specific to the European Union. mocracy. Questions: „And in the following list. The exception to this correspondence in values is respect for human life: for 43% of citizens it is a personal value but only 13% see it as a value of the European Union. 3 ANSWERS)”.” Eurobarometer 66 Autumn 2006. of those values tested. revealing the values that matter most to citizens and comparing them to the values that best represented the Union7. The Eurobarometer surveys have tackled this matter several times. its values and the well-being of its people. Three values stand out as being especially associated with the EU. support for others Equality Respect for human life Tolerance Individual freedom Self-fulfilment Religion 4% 3% Personal values of Europeans 38% 38% 36% 24% 19% 17% 14% 13% 11% 10% Peace Respect for human life Human rights Democracy Individual freedom Tolerance Equality The Rule of Law Solidarity. support for others Self-fulfilment Respect for other cultures Religion 24% 22% 19% 18% 17% 14% 11% 11% 7% 43% 41% 52% Fig. Personal Values and Values Representing the EU .50 Pascal Chelala Values representing the European Union Human rights Democracy Peace The Rule of Law Respect for other cultures Solidarity. 4. It is one of the three most frequently mentioned values in 22 of the 27 Member States. the post-materialist shift describes the evolution in values that occurs when economic development has reached a stage where many citizens are no longer predominantly concerned with meeting day-to-day needs. such as protecting the environment. The societal reference framework of the new generation is no longer the same as it was 30 years ago.A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 51 Furthermore. Essentially. and respect of religious and cultural diversity. public opinion about the values best representing the European Union is relatively homogeneous throughout the Member States. This post-materialism is best characterised by the increasing importance given to new values such as sustainable development. tolerance. democracy is one of the three most frequently chosen values. With the satisfaction of material needs related to survival. . In a very real sense therefore. The extent to which respondents conceive of peace as a value of the EU ranges from 19% in the United Kingdom to 51% in Sweden. it is very much the case that European societies have experienced radical changes over the last decades – in the field of morals for example. 4 The New Values Whilst values are often thought to evolve at a slow pace. importance of leisure and tolerance. justice. individuals begin to prioritise what may have previously been only secondary values. the economic success of post-war Europe has been a key contributor to the ongoing development of values. In all 27 countries. The proportion of citizens regarding it as a European value ranges from 26% in the United Kingdom to 50% in Slovakia. This has been very well outlined by the American Sociologist Ronald Inglehart in what he identified as the era of ‘post-materialism’. the European Union has underlined the importance of this concept by consistently linking economic growth. To better understand this stance. in the form of a split ballot aimed at identifying whether public opinion on the protection of the environment envisaged any compromise in terms of economic growth. even if it affects the economic growth 20 73 Fig. In recent years. Protecting the Environment . even if this involves cutting back economic growth to some extent. 5. the Eurobarometer in 2006 contained an interesting exercise. social cohesion and environmental policies. Economic Growth vs.52 Pascal Chelala Protecting the Environment Stripping the concept down to its bare essentials. even if it affects the environment 53 40 Split B: Protecting the environment should be a priority for (OUR C OUNTRY). This concern is widely echoed by citizens for whom protecting the environment is a priority. This preference for protecting the environment at the expense of economic growth is present to a significant extent in all Member For each of the following propositions. sustainable development basically involves meeting current needs without jeopardizing the ability of future generations to do so. tell me if you…? % Total disagree % Total agree Split A : Economic growth must be a priority for (OUR C OUNTRY). A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 53 States. Tolerance Tolerance cannot really be considered as a new value.euractiv. This is mainly the case for the Split A version of the same question. Considering the abstract component of this value and the important share of subjective elements often associated with it. In a project that has been constructed on the diversity of its Member States. the foreign”8 is viewed as essential to the shaping of the European identity. the different. These average results mask significant differences between the countries that compose it: in Sweden close to 8 out of 10 respondents 8 Euractiv. However. The reservations expressed by the European citizens often relate to the issue of immigration on which hesitant views are still common. the disagreement rate (52%) with this proposal reaches higher levels than the agreement rate (40%). Accepting to be confronted with “the new. for which a somewhat hesitant positioning is more witnessed in the New Member States. Overall. . It shows that European citizens have split views on the extent to which immigrants contribute to their country. tolerance has left its indelible traces in the history books of the European construction. http://www. we should not be surprised to see that within the wider concept of tolerance there are contradictions.com ‘In search of Europe’s cultural and spiritual values’ March 2005. its expression is stronger in the former 15 member States than in the new countries which joined the Union in 2004 and in 2007. based on prioritising economic growth. It is claimed by citizens as being a specific value of the Union. The question in figure 5 was asked in the Autumn 2006 wave of the Eurobarometer.com/en/opinion/search-europe-cultural-spiritual-values/article-136125. whereas only 12% express the same opinion in Slovakia. On the immigration question. respondents who place themselves on the left of the political spectrum are more inclined to agree with the ‘high contribution’ proposal than those who selfposition on the political right (50% versus 36% respectively agree with the proposal). View on Immigrants agree that immigrants contribute a lot to their country. These differences should however be interpreted bearing in mind the number of immigrants living in each of the countries surveyed – with these a less significant presence in many of the new Member States.54 Pascal Chelala Fig. . The results of this particular Eurobarometer survey also illustrate how political factors sometimes have an important bearing on values. 6. 9 In political matters people talk of „the left” and „the right”. to be replaced with an emphasis on competition within open markets to generate economic growth. . More 6 out of 10 agree that free competition is the best guarantee of economic prosperity (64%). a similar proportion believe that the state intervenes too much in their lives (62%). Member States have been required to significantly transform their economic policies: Where previously state intervention was common in fields such as communication. Whilst these economic principles have influenced the evolution of other values. The Eurobarometer survey shows the existence of a wide consensus on the benefits of a market economy in the European Union. View on Immigrants and Position on a Political Spectrum Immigrants contribute a lot to (OUR COUNTRY) Agree Left-Right scale9 (1-4) Left (5-6) Centre (7-10) Right 50% 39% 36% 44% 53% 58% 6% 8% 5% Disagree DK 55 Economic Values: The Market Economy It has already been noted that the performance of the modern-day European economy has contributed to developments in value-structures in the continent. indicating the desire for moving yet further in the direction of reducing government intervention. it is also the case that they have come to assume the status of values in themselves. Over the last decade. this has been pared back. How would you place your views on this scale? Show card scale from 1(left) to 10 (right). transport and energy. A large aspect of this success story is the market economy. At the same time. which also forms the basis of the European single market.A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives Table 2. In . the crucial finding here is that the difference between this group and that of respondents on the left of the political scale is not a large one. Spare Time The evolution of societies in developed countries away from materialistic aspirations is at the heart of the post-materialism theory. 73% and 67% respectively of people on the right of the political spectrum agree that free competition is the best guarantee of economic prosperity and that the state intervenes too much in their lives.56 Pascal Chelala For each of the following propositions. Economic Values As expected. 7. free-market approach. However. tell me if you…? % Total disagree % Total agree Free competition is the best guarantee for economic prosperity 24 64 The State intervenes too much in our lives 33 62 Fig. For those on the left of the political spectrum the corresponding figures are 59% and 61% respectively. people to the right of the political spectrum express a higher level of agreement with such pro-market views. with the latter also exhibiting broad support for a non-interventionist. Jean-François Tchernia „Les Européens et le travail: un rapport personnel” Futuribles publication July-August 2002. .A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 57 Europe. Again. the explanation often given by sociologists links the level of importance of spare time to the level of economic development of the country of living10. 8. Importance of Spare Time 10 Hélène Riffault. This has been emphasised in the extent to which they would like to give more importance to leisure and spare-time in their life. The findings from Eurobarometer 66 show that 48% of EU citizens agree that more importance should be given to spare time than to work. citizens are seeking greater self-fulfilment and personal expression in place of this material satisfaction. Fig. Eurobarometer results at the country level are at variance with this theory: the agreement level on the importance to be given to spare time is in fact lowest in two of the most developed economies of the EU.58 Pascal Chelala However. shared history and collective destinies. These shared values guide European citizens on a daily basis in their lives. More Importance Should Be Given to Spare Time than to Work Agree Self-employed Managers Other white collars Manual workers House persons Unemployed Retired Students 48% 49% 59% 56% 44% 48% 34% 60% Disagree 47% 46% 36% 38% 45% 47% 58% 33% DK 5% 5% 5% 6% 11% 5% 8% 7% 5 Conclusion Over the last half century. as shown in table 3. the European Union has evolved from a union of a geographical entity or a single market to become more and more a human community and a union of people with common values derived from cultural diversity. Table 3. namely Germany (27%) and Luxembourg (32%). as illustrated in figure 8. the economically active population and the unemployed have somewhat closer views than one might expect. . their work and in the way they interact with one another and with their neighbours. Once more on a question related to work. however.europa.com “In search of Europe’s cultural and spiritual values” March 2005 EU Focus: Delegation of the European Commission to the USA.pdf Hélène Riffault. such as immigration. Furthermore. Les Européens et le travail : un rapport plus personnel.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_273_en. http://ec.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_199.eu/public_opinion/standard_en. October-November 2003. November 2005. Loek Halman and Ruud Luijkx Human beliefs and values: a cross cultural sourcebook on the 1999 – 2002 value survey. Futuribles analyses et prospective. tolerance has evolved in a worrying way in some areas. .1: Citizens and Sense of belonging. July-August 2002.pdf Eurobarometer 60. Jean-François Tchernia. In particular.A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives 59 Eurobarometer surveys have shown a high degree of correspondence between such personal values and between the founding principles of the European Union. “The EU: a Community of values”. The need for a substantial communication strategy is self-evident in this respect. concern for the environment is emerging strongly in Europe. un-answered questions like GMOs and the future energy policy of the old continent have the potential to quickly become a source of division. http://ec. Mexico) Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe (Official Publications of the European Communities 2005) Eurobarometer 66: September-October 2006 http://ec. values are undergoing profound transformations.europa. Whilst the actions of the European Union towards sustainable development have until now been widely appreciated by citizens. Miguel Basanez.europa. November – December 2006. References Ronald Inglehart. Jaime Diez-Medrano. to be balanced by the fact that in today’s rapidly changing context. These reassuring findings need. Euractiv.htm Special Eurobarometer 273 : Social Reality. (Siglo XXI Editores. 1 Background Globalization has been one of the most controversial and hotly debated issues for years. Investments and the United States Constanza Cilley Abstract Latin America has been growing at its fastest sustained pace in more than three decades. But results also show sharp contrasts between the different Latin American countries. Globalization is a century-long process. public opinion displays mixed feelings regarding globalization and foreign investments – people are more skeptical than citizens in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. a feature that can explain the difficulties in developing a continental economic zone. increased cultural influence. Although this term has been in widely used for years. rapid advances of information technol- . which has accelerated dramatically in the past 50 years. Globalization is an “umbrella term” and is perhaps best understood as a unitary process inclusive of many sub-processes (such as enhanced economic interdependence. it has no precise definition. although more positive than Europeans and those living in the US.Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization. However. tracking the expansion of human population and the growth of civilization. mainly due to favorable external conditions and the region’s increased involvement in the global economy. ” the ECLAC has pointed out. People in Latin America tend to see it as a synonym of world domination by the United States. with real GDP increasing a little less than 5% in 2007 and 4. Americanization. Latin America ranked well below Asia- . The positive/negative views of Latin Americans about globalization must be weighed against the region’s impressive growth rate (IMF 2007) and its increasing involvement in global markets (ECLAC 2007).25% in 2008”. The emerging transnational corporations from the region are instrumental to the bonanza. This focus on Washington’s role as the sole superpower not only encompasses its foreign policy and the deployment of its military strength abroad but also the spreading of its culture and values.5 billion global citizens. This is illustrated in the Voice of the People™ Survey which interviews more than 58. the US and Canada combined (26%) and Central and Eastern Europe (23%).900 people in 63 countries around the world. the ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) has reported that “companies from the region are internationalizing at a much faster rate than in the past”. Only 35% of Latin Americans evaluate globalization positively according to the Voice of the People™ Survey. representing the views and attitudes of more than 1. Furthermore.62 Constanza Cilley ogy and novel governance and geopolitical challenges) that are increasingly binding people more tightly into one global system. This is slightly below world average (38% positive) but above the Western Europe average (28% positive). Only 15% deemed it negative. 35% of Latin America citizens viewed globalization in a positive light and a similar share of those consulted said it was neither good nor bad. Globalization. The IMF has predicted that the region will face “a continued favorable external environment that would result in at least another two years of solid growth. “The region is adapting to the globalization process by becoming a more active participant in it. and antiAmericanism are terms which seem tightly knitted together today in Latin America. 58% of those interviewed across the world believed that the rich benefited the most. the poor. and 21% thought that rich and poor benefited equally from globalization. 2% believed the poor benefited the most while 28% believed they both benefited equally. the most enthusiastic were respondents in the Dominican Republic (46% positive rating for globalization). Table 1. 5% thought it was the poor. .Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 63 Pacific (52%) and Africa which showed an impressive 71% approval rating for globalization. or both equally. In Latin America. Once again. however. General Views on Globalization Argentina A good thing A bad thing Neither good nor bad DK/NA 26% 20% 35% 19% Bolivia 33% 25% 26% 16% Chile 44% 13% 36% 8% Colombia 41% 7% 43% 9% Dominican Republic 46% 16% 32% 6% Total 35% 15% 35% 15% Mexico A good thing A bad thing Neither good nor bad DK/NA 30% 26% 36% 8% Panama 34% 13% 49% 4% Paraguay 43% 17% 25% 15% Peru 45% 8% 24% 23% Venezuela 33% 9% 37% 21% Total 35% 15% 35% 15% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ The survey also showed who it was believed benefited most from globalization: the rich. 58% said the rich took the lion’s share. Peruvians (45%) and Chileans (44%). Ratings hit rock bottom in Argentina and Mexico – only 26% and 30% respectively evaluated globalization positively. Within Latin America. in tune with the world average. as shown in table 1. in Chile and Mexico it was 68%. and in Argentina 65%. Who Benefits from Globalization? Argentina The rich The poor Both equally No one 65% 2% 16% 2% Bolivia 57% 3% 28% – Chile 68% – 23% 1% Colombia 61% 2% 33% 1% Dominican Republic 67% 3% 22% 1% Total 58% 2% 28% 3% Mexico The rich The poor Both equally No one 68% 1% 25% 2% Panama 85% – 13% – Paraguay 48% – 36% 3% Peru 62% 3% 25% 1% Venezuela 22% 2% 45% 10% Total 58% 2% 28% 3% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ The general perception in Latin America and elsewhere that the rich get most benefits from globalization is somewhat in conflict with macroeconomic data showing Latin America’s good performance. as table 2 shows. Interestingly. The region has been doing well vis-à-vis “competitors” on the world market. Latin America and developing economies in general seem to be doing better than the rich countries . Venezuela clearly departed from the regional trend.64 Constanza Cilley there are huge differences among the countries in Latin America. just 22% said the rich benefited the most – and 45% believed that both the well-off and the poor shared the benefits. Although a mere 2% pointed out the poor as the most blessed by globalization. for instance. 85% of those interviewed said globalization benefited the rich. as pointed out by ECLAC. In Panama. Below world average you can find countries like Paraguay where only 48% declared globalization was mostly for the well-off to enjoy. Table 2. 56% of respondents from Latin America said foreign direct investment (FDI) is necessary and good. 1.Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 65 in the West. 74% of Dominicans evaluated FDI positively and so did 68% of Paraguayans. But Latin Americans still showed mixed feelings regarding international flows of money when interviewed for the Voice of the People™ survey. where . Fig. as shown in figure 1.3% and 4.7% in Latin America. The only country where negative answers surpassed positive ones is Argentina.9% growth rates. In 2004 the GDP growth rate for the world was 4% while Latin America and the Caribbean enjoyed 5. 2003-2007 2 Attitudes Towards Foreign Investment One of the keys to success has been the region’s involvement with global markets according to the ECLAC report. Regional GDP growth has shown remarkable success from 2003 to 2006 and 2007’s projections. Peru and Venezuela (all mentions around 60%). varied a great deal from country to country. however. World GDP Growth Rates. ECLAC’s projections for 2007 indicate that the world growth rates will be around 3. This. Colombia. Chile. followed by Bolivia. only two countries besides Argentina showed a majority being against foreign investments – Croatia (50% against) and the USA (44%). Another positive aspect has been the very significant rise of FDI outside Latin America which demonstrated that the region was adapting to the globalization process and becoming a more active participant of this. Interestingly. Argentina’s figures might still reflect latent fears after the strong economic crisis of 2001 and 2002. following a substantial fall at the beginning of this decade”.4 billion dollars. The ECLAC report has stated that foreign investment in Latin America in 2006 reached 72.4 billion in 2005 and 66 billion dollars in 2004. Worldwide. stressed the ECLAC paper. according to the ECLAC paper. “This appears to indicate that the region is on the road to regaining a stable position in terms of inward FDI. .66 Constanza Cilley Table 3. Views on Foreign Investment Argentina Necessary and positive Dangerous DK/ NA 38% 48% 14% Bolivia 61% 33% 6% Chile 61% 28% 11% Colombia 59% 38% 3% Dominican Republic 74% 22% 5% Total 56% 33% 11% Mexico Necessary and positive Dangerous DK/ NA 55% 40% 5% Panama 44% 36% 20% Paraguay 68% 20% 12% Peru 62% 22% 16% Venezuela 64% 13% 23% Total 56% 33% 11% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ 48% think that foreign investment is dangerous (against 38% who believed foreign investment is necessary and positive). up from 71. money keeps coming in and going out of Latin America despite people’s views on foreign investments. Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 67 Fig. Canada. 2. The most opposed to such a prospect were the Argentines – 88% of those interviewed rejected the idea. Latin America and the Caribbean: FDI and OFDI Flows Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. the survey highlighted sharp differences among the Latin American countries. France. large majorities reject the idea of moving to the US. Once again. the UK. however. ECLAC 3 Attachment to the Homeland Latin American’s mixed feelings towards globalization and foreign investments have a positive correlation to their general views on foreign countries. Italy and Germany (Voice of the People™ 2006). Thus. Sixty-five percent of Latin Americans said they would not like to live in the US. At the other end . Russia. A majority of 59% of Latin Americans said they would not like to live there. Canada. 58% of Paraguayans and 54% of Peruvians expressed their desire to live in the US. France. Japan. The Falklands War can probably explain why 93% of Argentines said they would not live in Britain. Italy stands out as a somewhat special case. Resistance to living in the UK seems to be a very strong regional trend: only 39% of Paraguayans answered positively and this was the highest mark for Latin America.68 Constanza Cilley of the scale. Italy. Latin Americans have a very negative view of the United Kingdom. UK. 65% of Dominicans. Mexico Panama Paraguay Peru Venezuela Total 11 37 22 38 65 22 29 58 54 33 31 16 30 39 48 55 27 27 44 31 25 31 5 24 27 27 31 14 22 39 25 18 19 Italy Russia Canada Germany Japan China 24 35 42 50 61 29 29 54 40 36 37 2 9 8 12 8 10 5 13 14 16 10 15 24 41 47 48 37 29 41 29 29 32 12 22 27 38 34 22 17 43 25 23 25 7 33 16 32 29 17 15 24 31 17 20 4 12 9 17 16 6 8 12 17 14 11 Source: Voice of the People 2006™ . it was still the most positive rating any country had in the survey. Would You Like to Live in the Following Countries: United States. Table 4. Even if this is a high number. This can be partly explained by the large number of immigrants from Italy living in Latin America. China? (Positive Answers in %) USA France UK Argentina Bolivia Chile Colombia Dominican Rep. Germany. followed by Mexicans (85%) and Panamanians (78%). 38% of Latin Americans viewed the US “very and fairly positive. the Dominican Republic (67%) and Peru (64%). United Kingdom and Italy. followed by Peruvians (45%). 20% of Latin Americans had a “fairly and very negative.” while 37% said “neutral” and only 7% chose the option “fairly and very negative. in this section we will study “the overall opinion” of the United States. The very negative view of the United Kingdom we experienced earlier is thus not verified here. The United Kingdom was generally viewed negatively but not as negatively as the United States.” view of the United Kingdom compared to 38% in the case of the United States.Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 69 4 Latin America’s Views About the Most Advanced Nations The large majority who expressed their lack of willingness to live in countries like the United States. The most sympathetic towards the United Kingdom were the Paraguayans (54%). the strong Italian legacy and presence in Latin America could help to explain its relative good standing in the region. Chileans and Dominicans (44% for both).” Paraguay and . The United States got very bad ratings. Looking at Italy. It’s the only country which got as many negative ratings as positive. United Kingdom and Italy can be seen as a way of expressing national pride and attachment to their homeland. The most negative were the Argentines (65%) and the Mexicans (50%).” 21% opted to be “neutral” and 38% declared to have “fairly and very negative” feelings regarding the US. The friendliest feelings were those expressed by respondents in Paraguay (67%). To test if this is the case. But it also seems to reflect a negative view in general of the wealthy nations in the West. The most negative were the Argentines (43% “fairly and very negative) followed by the Mexicans (21% negative evaluations). Asked about their overall opinion of Italy. 47% of Latin Americans responded „very and fairly positive. Japan. in %) ARG BOL CHL COL DOM MEX PAN PGY PER VEN Total United States Russia Canada France UK Italy Germany Japan China 10 7 28 30 10 39 27 31 22 47 22 39 47 41 51 41 65 43 27 11 55 44 44 42 46 54 42 43 22 54 53 35 49 50 59 44 67 16 50 62 44 67 49 71 66 35 20 60 48 35 40 42 44 32 48 21 40 33 32 30 29 48 42 67 20 56 58 54 67 63 58 38 64 33 48 49 45 55 48 59 48 37 31 39 44 38 48 43 48 45 38% 21% 47% 45% 33% 47% 42% 48% 38% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ Table 6. Italy.70 Constanza Cilley Table 5. France. China? (VERY AND FAIRLY POSITIVE. Germany. Canada. What Is Your Overall Opinion of the Following Countries: United States. UK. a Negative Role or a Neutral Role in the Following Issue: the Fight Against Terrorism? Argentina Positive Neutral Negative DK/ NA 12% 71% 7% 10% Bolivia 44% 34% 17% 5% Chile 30% 55% 14% 2% Colombia 62% 21% 16% 1% Dominican Republic 52% 36% 7% 5% Total 39% 43% 13% 5% Mexico Positive Neutral Negative DK/ NA 32% 58% 9% 1% Panama 57% 21% 18% 4% Paraguay 69% 19% 11% 1% Peru 62% 16% 12% 10% Venezuela 27% 39% 26% 8% Total 39% 43% 13% 5% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ . Does the United States Play a Positive Role. Russia. 3.Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 71 the Dominican Republic were the places where the highest positive ratings were found – 67% in each country. All in all. Chile (42% positive evaluations). T o ta l N o rth A m e r ic a W e s te rn E u ro p e L a tin A m e r ic a A s ia P a c ific E a s te r n & C e n tra l E u ro p e A fr ic a 76% 92% 78% 74% 72% 72% 54% Fig. Do You Think Terrorism Is a Threat to Your Country? Source: Voice of the People 2006™ . whilst only 12% of Argentines and 27% of Venezuelans shared this feeling. the Panamanians (18%) and the Bolivians (17%). these ratings are relatively positive and don’t explain solely the overall negative ratings of the United States. 39% of respondents in the region evaluated it “positive. Mexico (40%) and Argentina (39%) were the least positive in the region. Asked about Washington’s contribution to the fight against terrorism.” while 43% remained “neutral” and 13% considered the US role “negative. Peru and Colombia (62% for both) showed the highest approval ratings.” Citizens in Paraguay (69%). Among those who definitely judged the US negatively in this issue were the Venezuelans (26%). 5 The US as a World Leader The mixed feelings about the United States among Latin Americans might have something to do with the role of the United States in world politics. Colombia was followed by Peru (91%) – both countries have to cope with terrorist groups.72 Constanza Cilley When evaluating terrorism as a threat to your home country the results show that Latin Americans are quite worried. Do You Think Terrorism Is a Threat to Your Country? Colombia India Israel USA Peru UK Indonesia Russia Spain Turkey France Germany Panama Thailand Italy Canada 97 97 93 93 91 90 89 87 85 85 84 82 82 82 80 80 Singapore Pakistan Denmark Venezuela Japan Korea Philippines Norway Kenya Paraguay Mexico Netherlands Dominican Rep. They are in tune with the world average (76%) although well below North America (92%). Rep. and drug cartels. as shown in the following figure. Argentina Bolivia Vietnam 78 76 73 71 71 71 71 69 68 67 66 65 65 62 62 61 Luxembourg 60 Malaysia Macedonia Portugal Bulgaria Kosovo Poland Gabon Morocco Nigeria Ghana Serbia Romania Greece Congo 59 58 57 54 54 53 52 52 52 51 50 49 48 48 Sweden Czech. The differences among the Latin American countries proved to be rather big in this issue. with 97% of respondents who identified terrorism as a threat. Table 7. Regionally. Colombia not only ranked first in the region but also in the world (a position it shared with India). paramilitaries and shifting alliances between them. Moldova Switzerland Ukraine Taiwan Cameroon Hong Kong Chile Croatia Finland Senegal Austria Iceland Albania 47 47 47 46 46 45 44 43 41 40 32 32 29 25 20 South Africa 58 Source: Voice of the People 2006™ . The most confident were the Panamanians (65%) and Colombians (61%) while Venezuelans (22%). This should be weighed against the region’s impressive output over the last years. Chileans (20%). Only 26% of respondents in Latin America believed the United States had a positive influence. a Negative Role or a Neutral Role in the Following Issue: Growth of the World Economy? Argentina Positive Neutral Negative DK/ NA 19% 60% 8% 13% Bolivia 41% 34% 19% 6% Chile 47% 31% 20% 2% Colombia 61% 20% 17% 2% Dominican Republic 59% 24% 12% 5% Total 42% 36% 15% 7% Mexico Positive Neutral Negative DK/ NA 35% 45% 18% 1% Panama 65% 15% 17% 2% Paraguay 57% 23% 18% 2% Peru 58% 16% 12% 14% Venezuela 39% 32% 22% 7% Total 42% 36% 15% 7% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ When it comes to fighting poverty in the world. against 48% neutral and 19% who viewed Washington’s actions negatively. Latin Americans held opposing views regarding the US contribution to world economic growth. 36% were neutral and 15% evaluated the role of the United States negatively. Table 8. . Does the United States Tend to Play a Positive Role. the United States were evaluated less positively. Bolivians (19%). 42% of Latin Americans had positive views on this. Mexicans and Paraguayans (18% for both) ranked at the top of the pessimists’ chart.Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 73 The role of the United States in the world economy was regarded rather positively. Paraguay (26% for both). Panama presents the most polarized opinions as it can be ranked amidst those who see US in a positive role (49%) and also. Table 9. . a Negative Role or a Neutral Role in the Following Issue: the Fight Against Poverty in the World? Argentina Positive Neutral Negative DK/ NA 8% 71% 8% 13% Bolivia 29% 42% 23% 5% Chile 19% 52% 26% 4% Colombia 38% 37% 24% 2% Dominican Republic 49% 30% 16% 4% Total 26% 48% 19% 7% Mexico Positive Neutral Negative DK/ NA 18% 61% 20% 1% Panama 49% 25% 23% 3% Paraguay 34% 36% 26% 4% Peru 51% 21% 14% 14% Venezuela 19% 43% 29% 9% Total 26% 48% 19% 7% Source: Voice of the People 2006™ 6 Conclusions Latin Americans have shown mixed feelings in almost every topic in the Voice of the People™ Survey.74 Constanza Cilley Peruvians (51%) and Dominicans (49%) were the most positive regarding the role of the US in the fight against poverty. Chile. Colombia (24%). Respondents in Venezuela (29%). Argentines are the most skeptical regarding current issues and future developments. Does the United States Tend to Play a Positive Role. and Bolivia (23%) were the most negative. some definite trends are perceptible. In almost every issue. among the least supportive towards US regarding this issue (23% seeing US actions as negative). However. closely followed in most subjects by the Mexicans. The region has been analyzed as a whole in a handful of studies. followed by the Mexicans. References ECLAC 2007.Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization 75 Latin Americans in general view globalization positively. ECLAC – Unit on Investment and Corporate Strategies of the ECLAC Division of Production. for most issues. It’s not unusual to find that in a given country a majority supports globalization but. foreign investments. Productivity and Management (2007) . But even keeping the above in mind. Studies such as the World Values Survey show that Latin America exists as a culture on its own. also reflects the intersections of a variety of economic. however. religious and historical influences (World Values Survey 2007). despite numerous protest rallies and criticisms from NGO’s regarding the effects of globalization. We could see in this paper variety in opinions towards globalization. There is one exception: Argentina. believes foreign investments are dangerous. This is also the case when it comes to assessment of the impact and consequences of foreign direct investments – a majority regards the money inflow as beneficial for their countries. As shown earlier. Basic values such as religious and family attitudes or orientation towards authority are deeply rooted aspects of most people’s outlooks in life. but there is also something less tangible – the soul of a nation or its psychological temperament. which shows that attitudes to specific political issues change and show little constraint as was demonstrated by Converse in the early 1960. Venezuelans and Bolivians. In this chapter. attitudes towards the USA and G8 countries. The region. at the same time. contradictions arise. These differences among countries are a striking outcome of the Voice of the People™ Survey. we tried to identify and explain certain trends. Argentines were those who voiced the most negative opinions. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. pdf ECLAC (2006) “Preliminary Overviews of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean. and Pettersson.ECLAC. vol.voice-of-the-people.” www. Measuring and Mapping Cultures.” IMF Survey. No. 36. http://www. IMF 2007. May 7. 25 Years of Comparative Values Surveys.org/publicaciones/ xml/3/27543/Icq2327_i_. Preliminary Version. “Statistical Yearbook for Latin America and the Caribbean.pdf International Monetary Fund. 2007.net/ World Values Survey 2007.org/publicaciones/xml/4/28394/IE2006PreliminaryIngles.” http://www.ECLAC. Y. 8.pdf ECLAC. . Leiden and Boston: Brill. 2006. “LatAm: better able to cope with adversity.org/publicaciones/xml/4/28074/LCG2332B_2. Voice of the People™ 2006. T.76 Constanza Cilley “Foreign Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2006. edited by Esmer. Statistics and Economic Projections Division 2007.” http://www.. 2006.ECLAC. and almost five years after the fall of the Milosevic regime in Belgrade. But what does this commitment really mean? (…) The international community has invested enormous sums of money. But despite the scale of the assistance effort in the Balkans. where elections are free. the European Union committed itself to integrating the countries from the region. covered the general public and included a tailor-made analytical model for describing political patterns of people behavior. the Western Balkans are a relatively stable region with no military conflicts. 1 Introduction “Almost a decade after the Dayton Agreement.How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? Marchella Abrasheva Abstract. In Thessaloniki in June 2003. The presentation of a multi-country survey project which was instrumental in forming a political development strategy for the region of the Western Balkans’ potential EU accession. the international community has failed to offer a convincing political perspective to the societies in the region. a body of senior international policy advisers and decision makers. if not always fair. The . goodwill and human resources here. The project was carried out in 2005. It has put 25 times more money and 50 times more troops on a per capita basis in post-conflict Kosovo than in postconflict Afghanistan. no ongoing ethnic cleansing. The survey findings were used by an International Commission in the Balkans. The survey was carried out in 6 countries in the region. with a variety of countries being included or excluded over time. Historically the Western Balkans has always been a fluid concept. In our globalizing world the knowledge and understanding of what people think about policies. This starting assumption was among the most important factors for the ultimate success of the research activities in the project. the future of Macedonia is uncertain. the constitution and the alternatives. can make the difference between failure and success of any political decision. Serbia and Montenegro. For the survey objectives the Western Balkans included Albania. Bosnia and Herzegovina. not only in Europe. In this case. Policy makers are increasingly facing the need to consider public opinions. It describes in a very concise way the main political issues which had to be addressed by the Commission in its work. and which composed the basic rationale of our survey: to understand the public perception of the state. both the research team and the international decision makers’ team. the survey findings played an important role in the policy process in basically two ways: by examining the positive potentials and contributing to risk prevention. Centre for Liberal Studies in Sofia. Macedonia. the Americas and developed economies in Asia. It is often said that public-opinion polls play an essential role in contemporary societies. even in local matters.78 Marchella Abrasheva future of Kosovo is undecided. . People’s attitudes on sovereignty and the possible change of borders in culturally and ethnically diverse societies have always been a very sensitive subject to study. shared this understanding and the responsibility that goes with it. The Western Balkans is quite a specific corner of Europe where the forming of new states after Yugoslavia is an ongoing process. attitudes and motivation as a constituent element of their decisions. the initiator and the primary user of the survey which will be presented in this article. Kosovo. However. and the future of Serbia is unclear …” The Third International Commission’s Report 2005 This is the beginning of the report of the Third International Commission on the Balkans. We took the liberty of starting with such a large verbatim for two reasons. How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? 79 The general assumption of the Third International Commission on the Balkans was that the post-conflict status quo in the Western Balkans has “outlived its usefulness” (The Third International Commission’s Report 2005). Macedonia under the constitutional framework. remained a multi-ethnic state. negotiated with the intensive input of the European Union. the new State Union of Serbia and Montenegro. whereby „… Dividing the Balkan societies into winners and losers … in the process of the European integration … can itself be a threat to the stability achieved” (The Third International Commission’s Report 2005). as. After the Dayton Accord (1995). solving the constitutional issues in the Western Balkans was viewed as a pre-requisite to moving the region as a whole from the stage of protectorates and weak states to the stage of possible EU accession. known as the Ohrid Agreement (2001). Not making significant political changes would lead. Therefore. Kosovo is currently a place populated by a large majority of Kosovar Albanians and a 10% minority of Kosovar Serbs. Even now. was created in 2002. pollsters need to take care to omit the “your country” phrase from all questions. The EU will only accept functioning and legitimate states. . there is no recognized country yet. the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina was created in 2001 and a constitutional framework for Kosovo as a UN protectorate was built. to new cleavages on the Balkans. The current state and border arrangements which marked the end of wars in ex-Yugoslavia have guaranteed some stability and peace but they have also become a barrier to the EU accession of those countries. strictly speaking. The main policy related issues we were obliged to transform into a public-opinion research agenda can be summarized as follows: • The Kosovo status: to survey whether the outcome of the foreseen policy steps towards full sovereignty and independence would be perceived as a solution by people of Kosovo and its neighbors. Finally. as stated by the Commission. There were some concerns on behalf of the EU that independence for Montenegro would encourage Kosovo to declare its independence from Serbia. As the report of the Commission stated. . the “Balkans are not simply populated by weak states and protectorates. they also suffer the legacy of failed nation-building projects. thus provoking a possible destabilization of the whole region. in the Ohrid Agreement related to Macedonia. In the Bosnian Constitution.80 Marchella Abrasheva • Bosnia and Herzegovina: how stable was the federation? Was it possible to make the transition from the current status as a UN protectorate to a sustainable self government necessary for the process of EU accession? • Serbia & Montenegro: to survey whether Serbia & Montenegro should continue being one functional federation or whether it should be separated into two independent states1. after a national referendum was carried out. members of various ethnic groups are assured specified quotas. This is one of the main reasons for ending up with weak states. and in the Kosovo constitutional framework. 1 The separation of Montenegro and Serbia is already a fact as of 2006. • Macedonia: how viable was the status quo of this multiethnical country consisting of Macedonians and Albanians? Would this country fall apart if there was instability in the region or was it more likely to be stabilized as one state and develop towards an EU accession as one state? The general question to be answered was: could the current “ethnical principle” of states be shifted to another formula which recognized diversities? In the current constitutional framework the power is still based on ethnical affiliation. Building functional member states while integrating them into the EU is Brussels’ unique challenge in the Balkans” (The Third International Commission’s Report 2005). and political parties and government institutions • Importance of the nation and religion as motives for political behavior . • Proper sample coverage of all relevant ethnical and religious groups in each country. in each country and for each ethnical group we were required to explore the potential for domestic. proportional to population size. Serbs and Croats and Bosnians in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina etc.How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? 81 2 Research Design The survey design was developed and implemented according to the main aims of the research project. national. comparatively large samples. The questionnaire should focus on attitudes and possible political reactions to a number of hypothetical political developments in each country. such as Macedonians and Albanians in Macedonia. The design of the sample was relatively easy to decide: • Nationally representative surveys for each of the countries/ entities in the Western Balkans (aged 18+). Kosovar Serbs and Kosovar Albanians in Kosovo. and regional crises in a number of “scenarios”: • Unification of Kosovo and Albania in one state • Total and ultimate split of Serbia & Montenegro • Bosnian Serbs to split from the Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina • Split of Macedonia into an Albanian and Macedonian (Slavic) part The main research topics were the following: • Trust in local. trying to ultimately reveal whether a change in one country would lead to a number of (risky) changes in the others? More specifically. national. 82 Marchella Abrasheva • Local vs. national minority situation: can people be neighbors in a post-conflict region? • Fears of military and civil conflicts to come • Democratically legitimate vs.) The underlying assumption was that all scenarios of political change or policy developments that were negatively evaluated and assumed as very likely to happen and motivating for active forms of political protest should be considered “risky” by the policy makers. would people do something to stop a political event taking place? Forms of possible political action should be tested. positively evaluated options which also had a potential for . including voting at regular elections or referenda and forms of radical political protest (civil disobedience. radical forms of political behavior • Attitudes to EU membership • Attitudes to the international community in general • Attitudes to the United States • Evaluation of the past and the possible future • Understanding of the nation-state concept This quite complex research agenda was problematic at the questionnaire development stage. armed conflict etc. could be used by policy-makers as directly as possible? An analytical model was created based on three pillars: • Attitudinal aspect: would people evaluate an issue or event positively or negatively? • Probability aspect: do people believe that an event is likely or unlikely to happen? How likely or unlikely? • Behavioral aspect: would people do something to make a political event more likely to happen? More importantly. Conversely. Which set of interrelated indicators would give us coherent enough answers to all these issues and which. at the same time. nor considered likely to happen by people in the region as a whole. Moreover. that a re-shaping of the borders by a national / ethnical / group criterion was not considered by the people as a solution to the problems overall. This finding suggested that a peaceful separation of Serbia and Montenegro was not a potential threat to the stability of the Western Balkans.g. proved desirable or very likely to happen in people’s views. Kosovo Albanians with Albania) was even less supported and not viewed as a probable scenario. the final split of Montenegro and Serbia in two independent states. The only option that was viewed as acceptable was the ultimate split of Serbia and Montenegro into two independent states. the hypothetical split of Bosnian Serbs from Bosnia and the hypothetical split of Macedonia into a Slavic part and an Albanian part were neither supported. 3 Key Survey Findings The results showed. Secondly. any split by ethnical lines as a pre-requisite for further unification of Albanians into one state (e. the research model has proved viable and provided policy makers with reliable answers on the core issue. the only “Likely and probable scenario”. The research team considered this particular chart among the key results of the analytical work done. Most of the indicators used in the survey were 10-point evaluation scales to allow statistical analysis of the findings and coherent mean score comparisons of key results. first of all. . Firstly. breaking the existing countries and protectorates into their constituent ethnical components. has become reality after a democratic referendum in 2006.How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? 83 democratic support should define the area of possibly successful political decisions. In other words. All analyses were done for ethnical and national groups as well as by country and region. None of the feared “risky” scenarios. 1. Despite negative evaluations of multi-ethnical relations in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina by the Bosnian Serbs. A majority of the people surveyed (with the exception of Albania and Kosovo) did not support the idea that different nationalities can only live together in one state if each nationality is in a separate region. the fear in the international community that Kosovo's independence would automatically provoke the disintegration of Bosnia was proved not valid. Therefore. The existence of multi-ethnical federal states proved to be a possible scenario in the Western Balkans. No real intent of threatening the existence of the Bosnian state was measured among any ethnic group. Survey findings for Bosnia & Herzegovina presented evidence for this. the majority of all people (60%) rejected a possible split of the federation. .84 Marchella Abrasheva Fig. Evaluations of Hypothetical Scenarios Another key finding was a lack of support of “ethnically pure” regions within a multi-ethnic (federative) country. The focus on the “Greater Albania” theme was quite consistent in Albania and Kosovo. the survey has shown that public attitudes on nation-building and the political future are quite complex. as illustrated in figure 3. 2. Attitudes Towards Living Together in One State or Creating Seperate Regions At the same time. Another interesting finding was the considerable support for a change of existing borders in two of the countries surveyed: Kosovo (among the dominant majority of Kosovar Albanians) and Albania. as illustrated in figure 4. Some of the concerns of the policy makers on the overall situation in the region were confirmed by the survey findings. the survey . An example of this was the overall pessimism among citizens in the region. If the possibility for a “Greater Albania” or a “Greater Kosovo” was not considered an option by the international community.How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? 85 Fig. In the other countries this focus on a change of borders was not so dominant. Pessimism or Optimism About the Development Prospects Fig. 3.86 Marchella Abrasheva Fig. 4. Change of Borders . At the same time. At the same time. To 2 This mode of segmentation was used in a number of other surveys as well. EU popularity in the region has been growing and the EU is perceived as a resource which can shape and accelerate future developments. as illustrated in figure 6. to measure dynamics of „genuine” EU support Vs conditional / situational support. an interesting point to emerge from the survey was that the concept of “ethnical groups” seemed to be in a process of change. As a whole.How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? 87 findings clearly showed the need for a clear message in this respect to the people in these countries and in the region as a whole. EU related attitudes were surveyed two-fold: firstly with regards to overall support for the EU and what it stands for in culture. the relations between Albanians and Macedonians were rated quite negatively in the country’s situation overall and the fear of possible civil and military conflicts was relatively high. People to a large extent support a “Greater Albania” and a “Greater Kosovo”. Finally. Latest findings in 2006 show a rise of genuine EU accession supporters in Serbia and Macedonia. the majority of peoples in the region supported the view that becoming member states of the EU was the preferred solution for the region as a whole. most respondents doubted that an actual accession procedure would begin in the next five years. Macedonians did not support a split of the country into Slavs (Macedonians) and Albanians.2 Furthermore. The model was also applied to measure attitudes to the US and other international arena factors. The survey findings confirmed the general consensus in the Western Balkans that an EU integration was the preferred solution for the future. and euro-skeptics is showed in figure 5. economy and politics and secondly from a more pragmatic attitude – should our country be closer or more distanced from the EU? The distribution of euro-optimists. . pragmatics. The survey also pointed to potential problems in Macedonia. Euro-optimists. 6. Membership of the EU . Identity apparently is not closely linked to ethnical roots alone. Pragmatics and Euro-skeptics Fig. in Albania and in Kosovo under the same banner – did not find full support in reality. 5. Pro-European Pragmatic Anti-EU Not sure Albania 72% 8% 2% 18% Kosovo 71% 10% 5% 14% Bosna & Herzegovina 62% 15% 8% 15% Macedonia 56% 11% 4% 29% Montenegro 54% 15% 5% 26% Serbia 49% 16% 13% 22% Fig. the survey data showed that the notion of “Albanians” – putting those living in Macedonia.88 Marchella Abrasheva some surprise. How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? 89 4 Conclusions The countries in the Western Balkans as a whole have a negative view of the past 10 years of conflicts and the ex-Yugoslavia split but hope for a better future. In particular. People generally don’t want borders to be changed again (except in the “Greater Albania” area) but. the survey provided a number of key messages: • The current status quo of protectorates and provisional constitutional framework. the survey has proven that the combination of a polling based approach. Reference The Third International Commission’s Report 2005. created to maintain regional peace and stability has played its role and now needs to be amended to allow further developments towards an EU accession. • There are two possible scenarios which have the potential to destabilize the region: the breakdown of Macedonia and the establishment of a Greater Albania. the overall economic. Kosovo’s independence is a very complex issue and. and the administrative and political perspective can be inspiring for both and enrich the policy-making process.balkan-commission. Finally. could lead to a destabilization of the whole region. • If the international community fails to offer a convincing European perspective to the region. at the same time. For all those living outside the region and keeping a distant eye on the region’s geographical. political and social progress could be blocked. they are faced with ethnically based tensions. if mismanaged. The Balkans in Europe’s Future at www. political and economic situation.org . even on the most complex political issues. Hopes are that the EU can transfer existing states into member states and they are critical of both their own governments and the EU for the postponement of the expected changes. Part 2: Public Opinion Polling in National Elections . The chapter delivers a detailed description of sampling procedures. For the Market Research Industry. the outcome of which will be published just hours later?” In the end. both are right: Yes. it is risky to produce a projection which will be measured against reality just hours later. there are two main reactions: admiration or pity. Exit polls are used today in most democratic countries to predict the outcome of an election. their typical question being “How is it possible to tell precisely the outcome of an election just after the ballots have been closed?”. The live coverage and the comparison of the projected outcome with the real election results define the specific challenges of an exit poll. 1 Background When a pollster tells people his work involves exit polls. Non-academics lean towards the first. exit polls have a “show-case-function” because they are at the focus of public interest when the first results are broadcast live on TV immediately after the polls have been closed. At the same time they enable analysis of the voting behavior of different subgroups of the population. And yes. fieldwork. high methodological and logistical efforts are necessary. To guarantee extremely precise forecasts. logistics and statistical models which are needed to deliver excellent projections. while scientists tend to express the latter when they ask “How can you be so crazy as to produce a projection of an election.Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts Richard Hilmer Abstract. . Poland. Portugal. Ireland. Before that. with TV stations in Germany. and for the political debate. Israel. It was a huge success story for the pollsters. and a lot of other democratic countries following suit. TNS companies carry out exit polls on a more or less regular basis in around 20 countries1. France. It is not a miracle.) That is why exit polls have become so successful the world over. it is simply a science-based craft. Great Britain. Denmark. (Viewing rates for election reporting are among the highest in most democratic states.94 Richard Hilmer with only a few exceptions. since they were first carried out by CBS in the USA on the occasion of a gubernatorial contest in Kentucky in 1967. that politicians are willing to comment on the results and millions of viewers are willing to watch. Macedonia. Czech Republic. Finland. France. Given this fact and because of the significance of exit polls for political research and the market-research industry as a whole. It is only because the results of an exit poll are so reliable. 1 Belgium. pollsters forecast the outcome of elections based on exit polls very precisely. for the TV stations. those six hours between the closing of the ballot offices and disclosure of the first official result of an election are crucial. . and ABC. Today. But it took another ten years before the practice became state of the art in election reporting by NBC. Germany. the basic requirements of which I will describe below. Philippines. there is another question to be answered: Why would anybody spend a lot of money to find out something which he will know for nothing just hours later? The reason is that. this booklet should not fail to provide a description of how exit polls are conducted. however. they want to know. Canada. CBS. Audiences and political players don’t want to speculate about the outcome. Romania. Bulgaria. Norway. Netherlands. South Korea and Spain. for the clients (almost exclusively TV stations). processed. And because mobilization can differ a lot from party to party. just hours. the situation is very transparent. it cannot be precluded that the share of a single party is significantly under. this is only possible because of some fundamental differences between an exit poll and a normal pre-election survey: • The target group of an exit poll is not eligible voters but voters. we deal with facts. exit polls have particular logistical and economic constraints and a rather unique timeframe.or overestimated. where the share of confessing non-voters is notoriously too low. voters are not asked how they intend to vote but which party or candidate they did vote for. so there is no problem of memory. In an exit poll. live. In an exit poll. • The vote does not date back a long time. not with beliefs or intentions. • For the interviewees. This distinction is one of the major problems in predicting the outcome of elections based on pre-election surveys. A vast amount of data is collected (mostly on a nationwide scale). • In an exit poll. .Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 95 2 The Methodology of Exit Polling Exit polls share many important characteristics with normal surveys: interviewers collect empirical information from a representative sample whose data is processed and analyzed. and continuously analyzed in the course of only one day. sometimes only minutes. later on television. Albeit exit polls deliver extremely precise forecasts. then to be presented. However. The proximity of the event even allows the replication of more complex voting2. exit polls have been successfully realized in local elections where voters have up to 90 votes. They can easily understand the purpose of the survey and what use the results will have – this being one of the major reasons why 2 In Germany. voters are questioned just after having cast their vote. This method leads to a self-weighting sample. mostly due to different religious affiliations and differences in the occupational structure. . A number of samples can be drawn and. the precincts are grouped into different strata. the best sample is chosen.g. Those specifications are mentioned as examples for the United States and Germany. administrative and geographical units. it is rarely applied. after the quality is assessed.96 Richard Hilmer non-response rates in exit polls are much lower than in comparable surveys. they are not sufficient for a good prediction based on an exit poll. The most important quality factor – if avail3 4 5 The paper describes some general standards of an exit poll. the first step is to draw a probability sample of election precincts4. professional field work and data collection procedures. Its definite design has to be adapted to the concrete situation in the specific country. Sampling – How to Realize an Optimal Sample? As with any other random survey. Voting differs between regions. the probabilistic sample design of an exit poll has to ensure that every voter has the same opportunity to take part. There are at least three more requirements: optimal sampling. Before the sample is drawn. past voting behavior is highly correlated with current voting behavior. major parties’ share of the vote). this is realized on the basis of a twostage sample design.5 Samples can then be drawn by systematic random choice from a stratified list of precincts independent of precinct size. While these characteristics are very important. and adequate modeling procedures3. An alternative could be a representative CATI survey of voters on election day. taking into account factors like regional dimension and past voting behavior (e. In an exit poll. Since elections in most countries take place in local voting precincts. But because this approach includes some methodological problems and because its projections do not deliver the same quality as exit polls. so that again every voter has the same opportunity to take part. In a second step. 6 7 „Tied sample” means that the basis for the prediction of the current election is a sample of the precincts of the preceding election. . voters have to be selected. the respective preceding election can be a general election or a state election or a European election. maximum precinct size is fixed by law. If precinct boundaries have changed. A major problem is that precincts are subject to change between elections due to mobility and generational change. A determining factor for the quality of a sample is to stick to the given interval. representing the result of the preceding election as closely as possible. but can reach peak values of 90 % and more. The interval can range from every voter in a precinct to every 10th or even more7. like Germany. In the USA the largest intervals could amount to as much as every 70th voter. Most practical problems result from changes in the number of voters between elections and from changes in the boundaries of precincts. Local communities are responsible for the design of precincts and usually no central registration and/or data is available. again on a systematic randomized basis. and so the variation in the skip interval is limited.Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 97 able on a precinct level – is the representation of the result of the past election in the “tied sampling procedure”6. a more complex sampling procedure has to be chosen. In some countries. In Germany. What helps is an exceptional willingness on the part of voters to take part in an exit poll: the response rate ordinarily amounts to 70 %. If more than one election takes place. Intervals are usually tied to expected voter turnout and the total number of interviews desired. the discrepancy between old and new boundaries has to be resolved. This requires a profound understanding of the procedure and therefore intensive training for the interviewer to make sure that the structure of the voters interviewed is more or less identical to that of the entirety of voters. The interviewers are provided with a skip interval and are told to select every nth voter. 000 voters were interviewed (Mitofsky and Edelmann 1993: 2). can of course not be incorporated into a sample of voters at the ballot box. the complexity of the voting area. In Germany. the major TV stations in the USA decided to cooperate. Absentee voting (postal or online voting). the share of absentee or postal votes amounts to about 15 % at a national level and 25 % at a state level. the requirement that „… all voters should have the same opportunity to take part …” only relates to ballot-box voters. the sample for a national election includes about 400 to 600 precincts. which is possible in most countries. because projections had to be carried out in all 49 states. The exit-poll operation for the 1992 general election in the United States therefore comprised 1. exit polling in the United States has been organized centrally by Voter Research and Survey (VRS) and the Voter News Service (VNS)9. and the states or constituencies for which projections are requested. constituency or city) are required.000 exit-poll interviews. Because this operation is extremely cost intensive. In total. 8 9 This can be challenging: In Germany.g. Their decision has to be either surveyed in another way or estimated8. a greater number of precincts is generally necessary. If projections for specific regional units (e. because you need projections based on regional levels instead of a national level. Since 1990. about 177. the sample for general elections is generally smaller.310 precincts. This sample size is designed to allow separate predictions for eastern and western Germany. How Big Does an Exit-Poll Sample Need to Be? The size of exit-poll samples depends on the voting system. The National Election Pool (NEP) has been responsible for this service since the 2004 Presidential Election. In South Korea. TNS carried out an exit poll for the national election in 2004 based on 250. for instance. For a majority-voting system. which also subscribes to a system of majority voting. . since there are still systematic differences in voting behavior between these two parts of the country. In countries with a proportional voting system.98 Richard Hilmer But there is a restriction to be kept in mind: In an exit poll. the couple will decide – in most cases in favor of the man • In case of refusal. in cities). and having nationally organized and experienced field staff at one’s disposal is a big advantage. only that the limits differ. A few days before the election. This is the case for a lot of countries. do you take the next person or start counting again? • Where are interviewers best positioned so they have an optimal overview of the location and a good setting for the interview? Needless to say. a lot of other statistically relevant details have to be considered. interviewers receive a comprehensive instruction manual and all the necessary field material. Central training sessions may be organized if the costs are acceptable (e. and sometimes local supervisors are included in the organization and training. They include • If a couple leaves the ballot booth at the same time. who do you choose? If the choice is not clear. Even if the procedure for the selection of voters is very clear and transparent. well-trained interviewers are indispensable. additional recruiting is necessary. Additional instructions are given from field headquarters via telephone. whereby a minimum size of about 25 to 30 precincts is recommended for every single projection.000 interviewers). In most cases. Fieldwork/Questionnaire Another key for the quality of an exit poll is the fieldwork.Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 99 sample size can be increased accordingly. like a two-(or more) vote system or special limits on the share of votes which a party has to reach to be represented in a parliament. There are other specific aspects of an electoral system which could influence the design and the size of a sample. For state or local elections. interviewers are expected to contact the . TNS companies primarily use their regular field staff (in Germany about 4.g. In cases of a more complex voting procedure. To prevent data processing becoming too complicated. For analytical reasons. In general. religion or trade-union membership might be important for party preference. The wording of the voting question is more or less standardized. and they respect the privacy of the vote. Face-to-face is possible but rarely used because of the sensitivity of the data – “Which party have you just voted for?” – and a demand for strict anonymity. The whole setting requires a very concise and clearly laid out questionnaire. in others such as the USA. the length of interviews for an exit poll is limited.100 Richard Hilmer person in charge of the election on location. Data transfer can be managed by telephone or online. In some countries. and transfer test data from their precinct location to central headquarters. 10 In Germany. additional questions– (in the USA up to 40) may be added. attitudes towards candidates and issue preferences. it may be ethnic background. a „ballot sheet” with the signet of the – highly reputable – TV client is used to guarantee anonymity and to provide a concrete idea about what the information will be used for. the question concerning the vote(s) just cast can be of great importance. Besides the indispensable question of the vote just cast. identify the location of their precinct. closed-ended questions are posed and contingent questions are avoided. put it into an envelope. Scales are condensed into moderately broad ranges. . and deposit it in a “ballot box” provided by the interviewer. the questionnaire normally includes some basic demographic variables like sex. The complexity of the questionnaire differs from country to country and from company to company. check the telephone facilities.g. Due to the narrow timeframe. education. major factors influencing the voting decision. Respondents fold the completed questionnaire. and profession. age. concerning party identification. Secret ballot questionnaires10 reduce refusals and other evasive responses in comparison to face-to-face interviews. exit polls are conducted by self-administered “secret ballot” questionnaires. political ideology. e. but for several simultaneously – as is the case in the USA and in Germany. a delay is prescribed by law. All data has to be checked and counterchecked. Thus. the company is also responsible for the production of live animated TV graphics. And because in most countries elections are held on a single day. 11 In the USA. the TNS company delivers data on national elections for the live programs of two national broadcasters as well as up to twelve regional TV stations and as many as twenty radio stations. an exit poll has to be accomplished in a matter of only hours. with its different time zones. Much the same is the case in France.000 interviews – and the narrow timeframe require sophisticated and perfected logistics to enable the smooth collection.m. . soon after11 the ballot stations close. an exit poll is a real-time project. including the results of questions exclusively asked for each network. In the United States. The sample sizes – in USA up to 200. This is especially true when the service is provided not only for one TV station.m. transfer. What’s more.000. in South Korea even 250. and processing of huge data volumes.Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 101 Logistics In most cases.m. with only those in Paris open to 8 p. The TV station wants to know the exact outcome of an election and broadcast it. at the latest. and in Germany still only 100. Results may not be disclosed before voting on the west coast has been closed. As the logistic efforts involved in an exit poll exceed those of all comparable surveys. NEP has to provide all major networks with the data. The logistical framework of such an operation provides an idea of the complexity of the task with some 1500 people involved on election day. All individual procedures need to be extremely standardized and automated. In Germany. where the ballot stations normally close at 6 p. they can use projections based on countrywide counts. with only the results in Paris being estimates..000. they serve as a test bed for the performance potential of a marketresearch company. checking. TV stations are not allowed to broadcast their forecasts before 8 p. 102 Richard Hilmer Fig. 1. Election Research: Data Flow 3 Forecast/Projections The undisputable climax of the TV program on Election Day is the disclosure of the forecast of the vote, which is normally based on exit polls. During the course of election night, first precinct counts are provided and constitute the basis for further projections12, which become more precise the more counts become available13. 12 13 In Germany, where the counting of votes takes place in public, the interviewer has the possibility to attend the public counting of ballots and report the results as soon as they are available to election headquarters. So the sample of the exit poll can also be used for further projections after the closing of the ballot stations. In countries like France, where real counts are already available from precincts which closed before the official end of an election, there is no need for an exit-poll-based forecast. Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 103 The quality of forecasts (and of projections) requires not only an excellent data set but also highly sophisticated statistics models to compute the data (whether they are based on the exit poll or counts). These models differ from company to company and are guarded as company secrets in countries with competing providers. The target is always the same: to come as close as possible to the actual outcome of an election. But some general aspects of sampling and fieldwork do need to be considered. Exit-poll samples can be designed to be self-weighting or can be designed using unequal probabilities of precinct selection. In exit polls, refusals and misses may lead to a bias and have to be controlled and eventually corrected by weighting. Weighting requires reliable estimates for the universe, i.e. the voters of the current election. Weights can be computed taking into account sample design, information available from official sources (e.g. electoral statistics), and information collected in the exit poll (e.g. recall of last vote, information about refusals and misses). A precinct weight could take into account unequal probabilities of precinct selection. In the VNS 1996 national exit-poll sample, therefore, precincts with large minority populations, which were selected at a higher rate, received smaller weights compared to other precincts of the same size. A within-precinct weight takes into account the probability of respondent selection. In the 1992 VRS exit polls and the 1996 Voter News Service VNS exit polls, non-interview adjustments were made for voters who were missed by the interviewers or refused to be interviewed. This was based on their observed age, race, and sex. After voting closes, precinct returns start coming in and are filed into the computer models for the projections of the election results and estimations of seat distribution. Later at night, when constituency results are available, they are also used in projection models. The rate of precinct returns differs, with the results of smaller precincts coming in earlier than those of precincts with more voters. For projections based on counts, therefore, missing values also have to be taken into account: especially in the first hour after voting closes, only a restricted number of precinct counts are available, which must 104 Richard Hilmer not be accepted as representative of the whole electorate. For those early projections in particular, sophisticated statistical models are indispensable to avoid going astray. So, in the course of the election night, different estimation models have to be applied for computer projections, normally based on ratio estimates, difference estimates, and/or regression estimates. Most of the projections are “tied projections” based on the “tied sample” of precincts. Irrespective, however, of the sophisticated model on which a projection may depend, it always includes a statistical margin of error. In the event of a close outcome, this margin of error might be bigger than the calculated difference between two parties or candidates in a projection. In those cases, the outcome would be “too close to call”. In countries like Germany, where official electoral statistics are available, these can be used for modeling. National and state census offices register voting behavior according to age and sex by providing ballot sheets in different colors to the different groups in a representative sample of precincts. This information about voting behavior according to age and sex is published some months after an election and can also be used for the socio-demographic adjustment of an exit-poll sample as well as for optimizing projection models. Another option for weighting exit-poll data is weighting by recall. The exit-poll questionnaire may include recall questions which provide information about past voting behavior within the current electorate. But because recall questions have specific problems (in preelection surveys, for instance), they are rarely used for weighting, but instead for retracing the shift of voting behavior. In countries with the possibility of absentee voting, the voting behavior of postal or online voters has to be included in the forecast (and to a certain extent in projections, as well) by way of estimation, as long as counts for postal votes are unavailable. That estimation can be based on pre-election survey data and models can be adjusted ex post according to the outcome of the election. Especially in countries where exit polls are used not only for national but also for state or even local elections – as is the case in Germany – this adjustment is very useful as a means of optimizing the projection models. Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 105 In summary: Forecasts and projections are at the core of election reporting and an object of immense public awareness. Confronted only some hours later with the official results, the challenge and the risks surrounding exit polls are enormous – both for the TV station and for the company. That is why both invest a lot in this kind of operation. For the TV stations, election broadcasts are of immense value, and they are given a lot of coverage. For the market-research companies, election reporting (including an exit poll) serves as a kind of “showcase” of their capability to cope with the representation of complex realities. 4 Analyzing and Presenting Results The main purpose for a TV station to conduct an exit poll is to deliver precise predictions. But the benefit goes far beyond that. Exit polls provide political analysts in the election night itself with further data of the highest quality. This data helps them to describe patterns of voter support for parties or candidates, especially when a comparison with foregoing elections is possible. Of special interest is the voting behavior of men and women, people of different ages, professions, levels of education, and ethnic backgrounds. Religion or union membership (relevant to issues of social conflict and political cleavage) are also of interest – increasingly so over recent years. In countries with a multi-ethnic population like the USA or Switzerland, ethnic background can be of great relevance. The high number of interviews allows reliable conclusions to be made even for very specific subgroups of voters such as “young, highly-educated women in urban regions”. Despite those demographic variables, particular interest is directed at the motives of voters’ decisions, e.g. party affiliation, issues, and the relevance and image of the candidates or top candidates of a party. Information of this kind may be derived from pre-election surveys or exit polls, whereby the latter deliver more reliable data and allow us to identify the motives of very specific subgroups such as young first-time voters or religiously oriented voters in certain regions. 106 Richard Hilmer The responsibility for data collection and the analytical work can lay in one hand or be split among providers – as is the case in the United States. There, data collection for all the major TV companies is provided by Voter Research and Surveys (VRS). VRS supplies data via formatted cross tabs on computer screens showing voting by demographics, by issue preferences, and by other questions asked in the exit poll. Each participating network and news organization receives the results of its questions and is responsible for its own analysis. For this analytical part of election reporting– including the projections – ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, etc. have their own experienced teams of pollsters. In contrast to this system, the research institutes in most other countries are responsible for empirical and analytical performance, as well – sometimes even for the graphical on-air presentation of all information. In Germany, for instance, the task of an institute consists of the delivery of the “prognosis” of the election outcome to be broadcast at 6:00 p.m. sharp; continuous computer projections of the share of the vote and the distribution of seats based on incoming precinct returns; the presentation of ready-tobroadcast graphics analyzing the results based on the exit poll, preelection survey, and precinct data; and finally the presentation of regional results, the winning candidates, and the final result14. To fulfil these tasks, Infratest dimap (the German TNS polling company) has developed an integrated complex computer program combining electoral data bases, data processing and analysis, prediction models, and the production of animated, 3-dimensional TV graphics. This integrated computer program also provides a variety of analytical ready-to-broadcast TV graphics which are prepared using the different information sources (e.g. voting behavior in different social groups from exit-poll data, attitudes towards parties, candidates and issues from pre-election survey data). In addition to such individual level data, it also provides a service for analyzing the election on the aggregate level. The sample precincts are categorized according to 14 A preliminary final result is published after the count is finished later at night by the census office responsible for the electoral statistics for the respective election. The data delivers enormous insight into voting behavior for ex post analysis. Part of the aggregate information about the constituencies and the previous results in the constituency is available from the statistical offices. exit polls are an indispensable part of democracy. because they also guarantee the independent control of vote counting. because they guarantee maximum transparency. In a way.Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts 107 regional. The character of exit polls as a real-time tool makes them so important for media clients. In addition to the precinct level. 15 The aggregate analysis on the constituency level is available later on election night.g. this type of aggregate analysis is also available at the level of constituencies later at night. 5 Conclusion Exit polls are a unique tool for getting a reliable and nuanced data basis about voting behavior. rates of unemployment. region. including for political players and political scientists. etc. strength of parties.15 Information on the context and the environment of the voters is thus combined with individual level information. This ultimately makes it interesting for people to watch election broadcasting and to glean information about the outcome of their vote from such coverage.). because they enable them to discuss and comment the outcome of an election right from the time when voting is closed. and is used for further analyses after the election. and political factors (e. part is computed by the institute. The relevance of an exit poll does not end when the election is over. social. . Exit polls thus serve as an inestimable support for the scientific community for political research. They deliver insight into the structure and motives of party voters and thus serve as an invaluable source of knowledge. exit polls even have the function of stabilizing democracy. city. economic. after the constituency votes have been counted. In new democracies. Pre-structured tables periodically provide the party results for each aggregate category and the wins or losses in comparison with the results of the selected previous election. Edelmann M. they also serve to showcase the abilities of the market-research industry as a whole. This requires the use of a great variety of tools and an unparalleled pool of knowledge. These companies are obliged to adapt to different conditions for data collection and to deal with different voting systems. (1993). TNS companies have long been successfully involved in exit polling. A Review of the 1992 VRS Exit Polls. Given the scale of the public awareness associated with election reporting on television. In numerous countries throughout the world. and full anonymity for the respondents. St. WAPOR and ESOMAR oppose any official regulation of conduct and any restrictions on the disclosure of polling results. For the sake of avoiding political manipulation. scientific boards such as WAPOR and ESOMAR have developed guidelines on proper conduct and on how to publish exit polls. W. . the main postulations of which are: transparency. as well.108 Richard Hilmer To avoid any misuse of exit polls. consistency of data and its interpretation. May 20-23. Reference Mitofsky. This is true for TNS. Charles. Paper Prepared for Presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. Illinois. independence and public control. exit polls represent one of the most sophisticated challenges in the market-research business. Because of the extremely narrow timeframe and the enormous technological and logistical requirements involved.. giving TNS an outstanding position in polling research worldwide. these factors had surprisingly little impact on the results. Unlike surveys that simply sample a known population. Gary Langer. starting well before the initial state-level primaries used to pick each party's nominees and continuing through the parties' political conventions and. The discussion and supporting tables/graphs show that. later. interview day of week and number of callbacks) as well as examining the political polling issue of weighting respondents to party identification. This paper describes the tracking poll process and reviews methodological issues (e. ABC News and The Washington Post commissioned TNS to conduct the sampling. pre-election polls in effect seek to sample an unknown population. one that in reality won’t exist until on or about Election Day – voters.. The election preferences of non-voters are not germane in seeking to measure and evaluate vote preferences. data collection and tabulation for their pre-election polling in 2004. 1 Introduction Pre-election polls present unique methodological challenges. for the most part.g.Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling: Lessons from ABC News’ 32-Night Tracking Poll Daniel Merkle. Thus pre-election polls must make their . presidential elections extend across the months-long campaign. and David Lambert Abstract Efforts to measure voter preferences and attitudes in the quadrennial U. the debates held between the major candidates. culminating in a 32-night tracking poll in the campaign's final weeks.S. and 40 percent previously called numbers. In all. live sample. measurement of voter registration.000 respondents. callbacks. Sampling. best estimate of the voting population – a modeling process that lays a new level of complexity over the existing methodological issues in survey research of a known population. The issues covered include variability in short-term political party identification. Each night’s sample included a mix of 60 percent “fresh.265 interviews were conducted. 1 ABC News and the Washington Post cooperated in data collection (conducted by TNS) then independently modeled. 21. rising to approximately 1. fresh vs. Interviewers asked to speak to the household member age 18 or over at home who had the last birthday. A tracking poll is a series of consecutive. A sample of telephone households in the continental United States was selected via random digit dialing.110 Daniel Merkle et al. stand-alone polls reported in a rolling multinight average. data collection and tabulation were conducted by TNS of Horsham. This paper explores these factors and how they affect survey estimates. the use of party ID as a weighting factor in likely voter modeling. the only media-sponsored daily tracking poll conducted in this election.” or new numbers. unlisted phone numbers. one-night. The data are from ABC News’ 2004 pre-election tracking poll of over 21. .000 in each of the last five nights.1 2 Tracking Methodology The tracking poll was conducted over 32 consecutive nights from October 1 through November 1. and listed vs. Approximately 600 general population respondents were interviewed each night. analyzed and reported the data. 2004. day of week effects. Miller. While ABC News’ likely voter modeling is intended to produce the best possible vote estimate. we reject the myth of pinpoint accuracy in pre-election polls. p. which may employ elements such as self-reported voter registration. The cooperation rate across all waves was 54 percent and the response rate was 37 percent.2 Each night’s data were weighted using demographic information on age. 127)). as described below. age. intention to vote. should come within a few percentage points of each candidate's actual support. rigorously conducted and with accurate modeling. is the luck of the draw. A good final poll. . Kohut. attention to the race. 2 The cooperation rate is AAPOR’s CR3. Any more indicates a problem.Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 111 PA. Data were analyzed using a variety of likely voter models that represented different assumptions about the composition of the electorate and produced a range of turnout scenarios. 3 Vote Estimates ABC News’ practice is to develop a range of “likely voter” models. The level of voter turnout produced by these models is evaluated and differences across models are diagnosed when they occur. Groves and Presser (2000. past voting. Party identification was used as a factor in likely voter modeling. We set e at . but any closer. respondents' knowledge of their polling places and political party identification. Winning the horse-race lottery is not sufficient grounds for a substantive evaluation of the quality of any pre-election poll. in our view. race. sex and education from the March 2003 Current Population Survey.20 based on estimates from previously published RDD telephone surveys with similar field period lengths (Keeter. The response rate is computed using AAPOR rate RR3: completed interviews / [(completed interviews + partial interviews) + (refusals + noncontacts + other) + e*(unknown households + unknown other)]. 1. Each of these sources has different advantages and disadvantages.5 percentage points. Exit polls are conducted with actual voters (including a small national sample of absentee voters contacted by RDD telephone survey). This is in line with previous ABC News pre-election polls since 1984 which have also closely estimated the final outcome. LVs) Fig. Good-quality pre-election polls conducted via RDD are based . and the national exit poll is based on a very large sample size (12.219 in 2004).112 60% Daniel Merkle et al. exit polls are based on cluster samples and therefore have larger design effects than telephone surveys. 2004) ABC Tracking Poll (Oct. Vote preferences among subgroups also can indicate the reliability of pre-election survey estimates. was within two points on the Bush percentage and exactly matched the Kerry percentage of actual vote (Figure 1). Final ABC Tracking Poll and Actual Vote The final vote estimate released by ABC News. the average absolute error on the major party candidates has been 1. 2. While there’s no official record of the vote by population groups. 51% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 48% 49% 48% Bush Kerry Actual Vote (Nov. based on data collected October 29-31. we can compare subgroup estimates from ABC’s tracking poll with the National Election Pool’s much larger national Election Day exit poll. Since that time. At the same time. 29-31. n=2.193. the ABC data were more accurate. those who are 60 and older: Bush did slightly better among this group in the exit poll whereas Kerry did slightly better in the tracking poll. and for diagnostic purposes we added a . the tracking poll underestimated his support by two points while estimating Kerry’s support exactly. On average. estimates of Bush’s support differ by 2. ABC News moved to sharpen some of its models to increase the representation of these populations. We also for the first time separately identified absentee voters. For Kerry’s support the average difference is somewhat smaller. 4 Underrepresented Groups ABC News’ pre-election poll methodology – particularly its likely voter modeling – is reviewed and refined as necessary. or differently enough. there’s close correspondence between the final vote-weighted exit poll and ABC’s final pre-election poll (which is not weighted to actual vote) (Table 1). It’s slightly larger for Bush because. 2004). These groups didn’t vote in large enough numbers. and almost no design effect.0 points. The NEP national exit poll overestimated Kerry’s vote by three percentage points and underestimated the Bush vote by the same amount. The 2004 election campaign included substantial discussion of young and first-time voters (as well as cell-phone-only voters. before the data were weighted to the final election result (Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. The conclusions one would draw only differ for one of the subgroups. including incorporating a question asking whether respondents were first-time voters and adding a follow-up to the voter registration question. In overall vote. have smaller sample sizes. for their under-representation to make a substantive difference in our estimates.Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 113 on modeled rather than actual voters. as noted. Likely voter models prior to 2004 under-represented younger voters and did not explicitly include first-time voters. Among subgroups. who tend to be younger).7 percentage points between the two polls. This was done by a variety of measures. 2. poll poll Diff 48 48 0 43 52 38 55 45 63 85 8 49 84 57 19 57 43 45 50 49 43 48 54 42 85 56 60 22 44 51 39 53 44 62 89 6 49 85 54 15 54 46 48 46 48 46 46 55 41 88 53 59 21 1 1 1 2 1 1 4 2 0 1 3 4 3 3 3 4 1 3 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 All Men Women Married men Single men Married women Single women Democrat Republican Ind/other Liberal Moderate Conservative 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ H.114 Daniel Merkle et al.S. NEP Exit Poll Bush Support Tracking Exit Abs. Evangelical white Protestant Note: Tracking Data Based on Likely Voters . ABC News Tracking Poll vs. or less Some college College grad Post graduate White Black Hispanic Union househ. poll poll Diff 49 51 2 53 45 58 42 53 34 13 91 45 14 40 78 40 53 52 46 48 53 49 44 55 10 41 36 76 55 48 60 45 55 37 11 93 48 13 45 84 45 53 51 54 51 54 52 44 58 11 44 40 78 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 1 5 6 5 0 1 8 3 1 3 0 3 1 3 4 2 Kerry Support Tracking Exit Abs. Candidate Support. Table 1. In 2004. 11 and nine percent respectively. That probably could be done quite precisely with a battery of specific registration questions. Also in 2004. instead.3 The point of the exercise in likely voter modeling. The extra effort to include young and first-time voters improved the representation of these groups. however. (It’s important to note that 85 percent registration overstates actual voter registration in this country by six percentage points. In 1996 and 2000. is not to accurately estimate the number of registered voters. they were less politically engaged and much less likely to say they were certain to vote. a follow-up was added in 2004 asking if they were currently registered at some other address. This small group would have been missed by the traditional question. firsttime voters were 11 percent in the exit poll and eight percent in the final tracking poll. For those who said no. 3 Based on data collected by the Associated Press. At the same time. The traditional registration question asks respondents if they’re registered to vote at their present address. The purpose here. is to model likely voters. The ABC News tracking estimates were lower. self-asserted registration is simply a factor in that modeling process. 17 percent of voters in the national exit polls were ages 18-29. the exit poll estimate was again 17 percent but the final tracking poll estimate was closer.) As expected.Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 115 question to the exit poll measuring cell-phone-only voters to see if their exclusion from the tracking sample significantly affected our pre-election estimate. an additional four percent were registered elsewhere. respondents who reported being registered at another address were significantly younger and more likely to be first-time voters (Table 2). . 16 percent. It did not. Eighty-one percent of adults said they were registered at their present address. Zukin.116 Daniel Merkle et al. Langer and Merkle. 2004a. ABC News began employing party ID as a factor in its tracking poll’s likely . 2004b. Pew Research Center. after an extensive evaluation of the issue.01 Using a Chi-Square Test. In 2000 (long before the debate reached its more recent pitch). 2004. 2004).835) Men Women 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ White Nonwhite Democrat Republican Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Certain will vote/or already voted Very closely following the 2004 election First-time voter 48 52 17 40 26 18 80 20 34 31 28 18 43 34 90 57 10 Registered elsewhere (n=556) 46 54 44 39 12 6 75 25 30 28 31 21 43 33 58 33 21 Note: Distributions in Bold Are Significantly Different at p<. Registration of Voters Registered at present residence (n=12. Based on Registered Voters 5 Party Identification The use of political party identification as a weighting factor in likely voter models is a subject of debate among opinion researchers (Pew Research Center. Table 2. 1992 and 1996. 1988. including an examination of the effects of party ID as a factor in modeling (Langer and Merkle. in which we found that applying a party ID factor would have brought our final pre-election poll results closer to the exit poll results for party ID in 1984. Party ID by Election Year. with no change in 1984. Dem +9. Proponents of using party ID in likely voter modeling have noted the remarkable stability of party ID in exit polls conducted in presidential elections from 1984 through 2000 (Figure 2): Democrats accounted for either 38 percent or 39 percent of voters. Rep +8. Dem +6. Republicans 35 percent and independents 26 percent or 27 percent. and would have slightly improved our vote estimates in 1988. After the 2000 election we presented a detailed analysis of that year’s data. and zero effect on our final estimate. 2. We took this action on the basis of a modeling analysis we conducted after the 1996 election. What made that stability even more impressive were the differing vote margins in these elections — Rep +18. 1992 and 1996 alike. Exit Polls . and a tie.Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 117 voter modeling. 2001). Dem Rep Ind/Oth 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1984 (Rep +18) 1988 (Rep +7) 1992 (Dem +5) 1996 (Dem +8) 2000 (Tie) 38% 38% 38% 39% 35% 27% 35% 26% 39% 35% 26% 35% 26% 35% 26% 37% 37% 26% 2004 (Rep +2) Fig. It showed that party ID factoring in 2000 slightly improved the party ID distribution but had essentially no effect on the estimate of vote preference — no more than a single point on any given day in that 21-day tracking poll. ethnicity. The second says that party ID is akin to a demographic. Pew Research Center. Green. not suppress it. and that polls measuring the dynamics of the race — rather than simply attempting to predict its outcome — need to measure and report this change. The first says that party ID is a volatile opinion measure which makes it impossible to use as a weight. the 2004 exit poll did show a slight change in party ID for the first time in at least two decades (Figure 2). namely religion. 2004a). But these analyses ignore the implications of measurement error and therefore overstate the amount of true change. (2002) also analyze aggregate data over time from Gallup. The Democratic percentage decreased by two points while the Republican percentage increased by the same amount. are unnecessarily absolutist. and social class” (p.g. Other survey researchers have used similar data to argue that party ID is unstable (e.. Both these positions. because of its importance in political views. party identification finds a much closer parallel to other social identities. Opponents of the practice note that party ID can and does change. They conclude: “In terms of persistence over time. Some have suggested that the change in the Democratic and Republican proportions in 2004 is evidence that using party ID as a weighting factor is wrongheaded (e. The share of independents has remained unchanged over the last 20 years. Pew Research Center. The issue is best resolved by an examination of available data – and of the various approaches available. In fact. The traditional schools of thought on party ID weighting have been unforgiving. should – even must – serve as a weight. 75).. Palmquist and Schickler’s (2002) comprehensive study of partisanship finds that party ID is very stable over time. CBS News and the National Election Studies and find that . and. 2004b). in our view.g.118 Daniel Merkle et al. after controlling for measurement error. Part of their analysis is based on panel surveys which they use to study partisan stability at the individual level. Green et al. but on a modeled population of likely voters. event-based changes rather than trendless. shifts in party ID around the 2004 conventions — more Democratic selfidentification after the Democratic National Convention. the night-to-night party ID numbers fluctuated in what appears to be random movement. ABC News noted and reported.” an implied predictive element seeps into these estimates as Election Day draws near. are not predictive. 2004a. ABC News does not use party ID as a factor in pre-election polls before tracking begins. for example. night-tonight variability. These surveys must therefore sharpen their best estimate of actual likely voters. multi-night. Over the course of a month of daily tracking. 2004).87) (see also Langer et al. Langer. Conducted only in the final weeks of the campaign. more Republican self-identification after that party's convention (Langer. . These polls. As shown in Figure 3. Tracking polls are another animal. This was again the case in 2004. and not let the accuracy of their portrayal of the race fall victim to sampling variability or model-induced fluctuations. and do not seek to model actual turnout. when they do occur. both during and between election campaigns” (p. Shifts in allegiance. While they measure the election “if it were today. 2004b). Democrats ranged from 28 to 40 percent of the sample. we’ve observed large night-to-night movement in party ID that appears to represent trendless sampling variability rather than actual changes in partisan self-identification.Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 119 “the distribution of partisanship evolves slowly over time. multi-night ABC News polls. their focus increasingly is not simply on a sampled population. Republicans from 28 percent to 42 percent and independents from 22 percent to 33 percent. and the views of non-voters become increasingly irrelevant. This mirrors the normal night-to-night variability in standard. done well in advance of Election Day. In previous tracking polls. often appear as consistent. This variability is consistent with previous ABC News tracking polls. . Table 3 shows the ranges and standard deviations in party ID for ABC News tracking polls from the last three elections.4 Each shows fairly wide ranges in the party ID numbers. ABC News Tracking Poll (Likely Voters) Those who denounce party weighting may point to this as evidence of large opinion changes in party ID. Similarly. For this analysis.120 Daniel Merkle et al. exactly what would be expected by chance. Samples sizes were larger for waves just before the election. Party ID by Wave. these waves were subsampled so the sample sizes were in line with earlier waves. Fig. only one of the 93 wave changes was significant at the 99 percent confidence level. 3. Only seven of the 93 comparisons were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level. we computed 31 wave-to-wave change scores for the three party ID response categories. The standard deviations vary 4 The number of nights of tracking varied for each election with a minimum of 21 nights. Therefore. scarcely different than the five we’d expect to see based on chance alone. These are large shifts. these comparisons are based on the last 21 nights of tracking for each year. but are they real? To test this notion. The Democratic variability did not differ between the two halves. although the difference was not statistically significant using the Levene test. Wave by Wave Party ID Estimates.33 2. There was also more variability in the independent percentages in the first half.3 n.84 1. Table 4.1 in waves 17 through 32.9 10.89 2.09 1.051.5 11.5 n.98 .0 n.5 9. It was only 5. During this time period.42.417.0 7.s. Note: Based on Likely Voters . Note: Based on Likely Voters somewhat by year.2 8.94 . Range 14.6 n.59.s.91 2.7 10. there were four debates.10. 121 Range 10.1 p<. from September 30 through October 13. The standard deviation for the Republican percentage in waves one through 16 was 14.s. In 2004 there was significantly more volatility in the Republican percentages in the first half of tracking than in the second (Table 4).76 2.74 3.05 Independent SD 3.3 8. Republican SD 2. 1996-2004 Democrat SD 1996 2000 2004 Levene Stat: 2.8 10. but none of these differences are statistically significant using the Levene test for homogeneity of variance. Wave by Wave Party ID Estimates.7 5.Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling Table 3. Range 11.s. Range 9.18 2.68 4. 2004 Democrat SD Waves 1-16 Waves 17-32 Levene Stat: 2. Independent SD 2.32 .98 1.7.7 n. three presidential and one vice-presidential. Range 9.023. Range 9.09 2.s.75 2. Republican SD 3. sex and education based on Census data. 2) Using the demographic weighting as well as the party 5 Also the wording of the party ID question can influence the variability of responses (Green et al. which ask respondents how they usually think of themselves. it’s also true that actual change can occur.. The question is whether surveys are measuring actual changes in opinion.. and Wlezien (2004) reported that the Gallup likely voter model accentuated the random variability in party ID. race. Panagopoulos. and. but that it also can reflect sampling or modeling variability.122 Daniel Merkle et al. Claims that this movement is meaningful seem to be contradicted by its trendless variability as well as by the difference in party ID variability among registered and likely voters (Erikson et al. such as ABC News’. therefore. Erikson. or instead are reporting who's moving into and out of their likely voter models. 2002). or an artifact of the model. It reflects our conclusion that.” . What is the effect of this modeling? Figure 4 shows the 2004 tracking poll vote estimates weighted two ways: 1) Using the standard demographic weighting for age. while constraining random variability. that some variability in party ID in tracking polls may be real. „generally speaking. given the very high correlation between party ID and vote preference. the stability in party ID in recent elections is persuasive. if and when it occurs. While random movement in party composition can distort a poll’s horse-race estimates. on one hand. 2004). ABC News. rather than true movement in voter attitudes. but not necessarily fully predictive. on the other. if the latter. in 2000 created a compromise position on party weighting that falls between the two traditional schools of thought: We compute an average of party ID as measured in the nightly tracking poll. This averaging approach allows us to pick up real movement in party ID.5 Variability of this nature affects portrayals of the race. Gallup’s wording asks for party ID „as of today” which results in more variability than questions. and party ID as measured in recent presidential election exit polls. whether such movement is real. and. 20 04 27 . party weighting also did not change the vote estimates. For the final three waves of tracking (October 30-November 1). ABC News Tracking Poll (Three-Night Rolling Average. Tracking continued through November 1. 20 04 09 . Looking just at the final 19 estimates from the three-night rolling averages in 2004 (to match the number in 2000) we find that the vote didn’t change by more than a point as a result of party factoring 6 . Likely Voters) factoring just described. Bush and Kerry’s support changed by less than a single percentage point. Vote over Time. on average.1 0 ABC’s final release was based on data collected October 29-31. Party factoring had slightly more of an impact in 2004 because of the longer field period and the greater variability in party ID during the early part of tracking. In the final estimate reported by ABC News. 20 04 18 .1 0.Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 60 55 50 45 40 35 123 Bush-Census Kerry-Census Bush-Party Kerry-Party Fig. during the time of the debates.1 0. Vote estimates changed by no more than two points as a result of the party weighting across the three-night rolling averages and.1 0.1 0. the party factoring in 2000 didn’t change vote estimates by more than one point. 20 04 12 . 20 04 30 .1 0. 4. party weighting did not change the vote estimates at all (Figure 5). 20 04 21 .1 0. 20 04 03 . 20 04 24 .6 As noted.1 0.2 00 06 4 . .1 0. 20 04 15 .1 0. LVs) Party Weighting Fig. In 2004. the same as in 2000. independents have been 26 percent of voters (in the seventh election it was 27 percent). The final tracking estimate using Census weighting had independents at 33 percent.124 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Daniel Merkle et al. In addition. The reason party factoring did not change the final vote estimates in 2004 was because the final Democratic-Republican split in the tracking poll was very close to previous exit polls (and the 2004 exit poll).42 for Gore. With party factoring. the average amount of change across the three-night rolling averages was similar in both elections across this comparable time period. . Final ABC Tracking Poll (10/29-10/31) in 2004. Independents were somewhat overestimated in the tracking poll compared with the exit poll. Vote by Type of Weighting.45 for Bush and .48 of a percentage point for Bush and . 5. In six of the past seven presidential elections. and the party factoring changed it only minimally (Figure 6).7 In 2000 it was . the average change was . 49% 48% 49% 48% Bush Kerry Census Weighting (n=2. It’s noteworthy that party factoring improved the tracking poll’s party ID distribution even though it used an exit poll estimate for party from prior years that was slightly different than the actual 2004 exit poll distribution.193.68 for Kerry. independents were adjusted to 29 percent of the sample. 7 The averages are based on the absolute value of the differences. judgment is required across all components of likely voter modeling — what elements to include.Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% NEP Exit Poll (n=12. what turnout to anticipate. 6. based on 73.751 interviews. It still. how to compute them. the party ID weighting improved the final estimate of party ID but had no impact on the final vote estimates in 2004 and only a marginal . of one percentage point or less. It’s also possible to combine the state exit polls to get a national estimate with even lower sampling error. For 2004. this cross-survey analysis. however.000 voters in each election since 1992— with correspondingly low margins of sampling error. may improve the estimates. All these increase the reliability of exit poll estimates.219) Census Weighting (n=2. However. And they're post-stratified to actual vote. LVs) Party Weighting (n=2. which may increase sampling error. which is highly correlated with party ID. Opponents of using party ID in modeling also note that it introduces judgment into the process. Exit Poll vs. LVs) 37% 37% 26% 37% 32% 33% 125 34% 34% 29% Dem Rep Ind/Oth Fig.193. In the end. Exit polls also are based on samples of actual voters rather than likely voter estimates. Party ID. Exit polls are based on much larger sample sizes than tracking polls — at least 12.193. yields the exact same estimate of party ID as the national exit poll. Final ABC Tracking Poll Some critics of using party ID from exit polls in likely voter modeling point out that it's the equivalent of weighting a poll to a poll. likely voters. for party ID the results are based on the general population and for vote the base is registered voters. These include concerns about possible day-of-week effects. 6 Traditional Methodological Considerations8 In addition to the challenges of polling for an unknown population. noncontacted numbers and the sampling frame. 2001). Such also was the case with a variety of more traditional best practices. even if such efforts ultimately don’t affect the bottom line. To explore this contention we compared the partisan make-up of the tracking samples for Sundays through Thursdays with Fridays and Saturdays. Day of Week In recent elections. As seen in Figures 7 and 8 there is no difference for party ID or the vote. . 2001). some critics have suggested that there are partisan biases in Friday-Saturday sampling and that pre-election polling should not be conducted on these nights. One way to address concerns about potential differences 8 The analyses in this section are based on all available tracking data. as discussed below.126 Daniel Merkle et al. pre-election polls must also deal with more traditional methodological concerns common to all polls. Therefore. impact on estimates during the course of tracking (see also Langer and Merkle. Why bother? To make our likely voter modeling as precise as possible. This is consistent with results we reported based on the 1996 and 2000 tracking polls (Langer and Merkle. with minimal ability to make repeated callbacks. Type of Sample Each wave in tracking is a stand-alone sample and can be considered an independent one-night poll. 8. Party ID by Day of Week. ABC News Tracking Poll . ABC News Tracking Poll 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sun-Thur (n=12.597) Fig.03.022) Registered voters.s.000) General population. Chi-Square=. Vote by Day of Week.658) Fig. df=3. p=n. p=n. 127 30% 32% 27% 30% 29% Dem Rep Ind Fri-Sat (n=6.Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 60% 50% 40% 33% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sun-Thur (n=14. df=2. 7. 49% 46% 48% 46% Bush Kerry Fri-Sat (n=5.s. Chi-Square=5.23. Party ID by Sample Type. This was changed from a 70/30 percent fresh/live mix in 2000 to approximate more closely the call distributions in ABC News’ standard multi-night polls. which averaged 42 percent of completes on the first call in 2004.” or previously dialed. The change reduced the number of completes that were based on one dialing. In 2004. In 2004 tracking. between easy and hard-to-reach respondents is to incorporate “live. 9. down from about two-thirds in 2000. For both variables. sample. 50 percent of interviews were complete on the first call. each wave included 60 percent fresh numbers and 40 percent previously dialed numbers for which interviews were not completed.128 Daniel Merkle et al.25. p=n. this best-practice approach had no discernable effect on our estimates. as was the case in 2000. 30% 32% 27% 30% 29% Dem Rep Ind Live Sample (n=6. ABC News Tracking Poll . In 2004.576) General population.s. Figures 9 and 10 show the party ID and vote distributions for live and fresh samples. This was closer to what’s obtained in ABC’s standard multi-night polls. Chi-Square=4.021) Fig. there is not a significant difference between estimates of these two types of samples. with the fresh sample for each night of tracking. 60% 50% 40% 33% 30% 20% 10% 0% Fresh Sample (n=14. df=3. Vote by Sample Type. ABC News Tracking Poll .Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Fresh Sample (n=12.474) Registered voters. p=n.380) Three (n=3.01 Fig. 10.920) General population. Party ID by Number of Call Attempts. Chi-Square=3. 129 48% 50% 46% 45% Bush Kerry Live Sample (n=5.206) Fig.256) Two (n=5. df=9. p<.s.041) Four+ (n=1. ABC News Tracking Poll 60% 50% 40% 34% 30% 30% 27% 32% 33% 30% 29% 30% 28% 31% 30% 30% Dem Rep Ind 20% 10% 0% One (n=10.93.03. 11. df=2. Chi-Square=22. Vote by Number of Call Attempts. Respondents interviewed after four or more attempts are slightly less likely to call themselves Democrats and slightly more likely to say they’re independents (Figure 11). The relationship between the number of calls and party ID is statistically significant (Chi-Square= 22. Merkle.g. df=6.598) Four+ (n=1. p=n. 12.85..93.810) Two (n=4. Chi-Square=9. p<.01). 2001) as well as research on surveys with longer field periods and a greater number of callbacks which show little or no impact of multiple callbacks on substantive survey estimates (e.629) Three (n=2.130 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Daniel Merkle et al. Listed vs. Unlisted Another polling issue that periodically surfaces relates to the sampling frame.s. ABC News Tracking Poll Callbacks Another way to look at contactability is to consider the number of calls it takes to complete an interview. However. These findings are consistent with results from the 2000 tracking poll (Langer and Merkle.643) Registered voters. While most telephone pollsters use random digit dial- . 48% 46% 48% 50% 45% 45% 49% 45% Bush Kerry One (n=8. Figure 12 shows no difference in vote estimates by the number of calls. Fig. 1993). these differences are not large and are not practically significant. Bauman and Lavrakas. 72.01 131 31% 34% 28% 28% 28% Dem Rep Ind Unlisted (n=8.343) General population. Vote by Listed/Unlisted. p<.01 50% 45% 46% 48% Bush Kerry Unlisted (n=7. Chi-Square=21. df=2.401) Fig.Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 60% 50% 40% 33% 30% 20% 10% 0% Listed (n=11. Chi-Square=17. 14.031) Fig. ABC News Tracking Poll 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Listed (n=9. p<. ABC News Tracking Poll . 13. df=3.879) Registered voters. Party by Listed/Unlisted.50. Each phone number in the 2004 tracking poll was checked against a database of listed numbers and flagged as either listed or unlisted. For party ID. However. Data from ABC’s 2004 tracking poll. Across tracking. 1993). There’s also a significant difference in the vote question (Chi-Square=21.50. show that no partisan bias is introduced by inter- . however slightly. In that sense it added precision. there’s a statistically significant difference between listed and unlisted numbers (Chi-Square=17. 2003). didn’t change our final vote estimates whatsoever. 7 Conclusion This paper explores the impact of methodological factors on tracking poll estimates.01). as it did in 2000 and would have in 1984.72. listed numbers show Bush over Kerry by five points. among registered voters. An assumption underlying critiques of using party ID as a weighting factor is that it biases the data. There’s no evidence of such a bias. There have been very few studies that have systematically studied this issue (Guterbock. especially when the actual partisan distribution differs from previous elections. 1992 and 1996 alike. as in 2000. The data presented here show that our party weighting procedure had a minimal impact on the data over the course of tracking and. some advocate listed samples. Champions of the use of listed samples have yet to document the reliability of the approach. to our likely voter modeling. 1988.132 Daniel Merkle et al. ing. p<. as well as from 1996 and 2000. p<. it improved our estimate of party ID among actual voters as reflected in the exit poll. whereas the unlisted numbers show Kerry +2. (Figure 14). Survey methodologists typically advise against using listed samples of the general population because of the large noncoverage (Lavrakas.01). Another criticism of the media tracking polls is that interviewing on Fridays and Saturdays produces biased results. Those with listed numbers are slightly more likely to call themselves Republicans. although the difference is not large (Figure 13). more research is warranted on the potential biases in listed samples. R. the findings of this paper underscore the robustness of preelection polling.” Paper presented at the annual . and Schickler.net/election-night/EvaluationJan192005. D.exit-poll.S. 68. in particular. Guterbock. R.E..” Public Opinion Quarterly. “Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics. D. Panagopoulos.Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling 133 viewing on the weekend.. Palmquist. conventional best-practice approaches. 2005: http://www.A. In all.M. Listed: An Experimental Study of Coverage Error. References Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International (2004). such as extended callbacks and concerted refusal conversions.. Hartman. “Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004. Likewise. Last accessed May 3. E. C. it’s incumbent on pre-election pollsters to employ the best methodologies possible and continuously evaluate their effectiveness. For the most part. B. the methodological factors examined here did not greatly affect the data. attempts to interview those who are relatively hard to contact by incorporating live numbers into the sample and conducting callbacks did not meaningfully affect estimates. T. Green. Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters. (2004).” January 19. force relaxation or modification of some long-held. Media polling in the United States is conducted under very ambitious time constraints. and Wlezien. and Nonresponse in a Statewide Telephone Survey. Nonetheless. We did observe some partisan differences for listed and unlisted numbers. (2002). given the importance of pre-election polls in campaign news coverage. Costs. New Haven: Yale University Press. (2003). requiring accelerated data collection and reporting deadlines.. “RDD Vs. C. 588-601. pdf Erikson. The short field periods. While further monitoring is warranted. and Hubbard. this review offers reassurance that easing or modifying the rigid application of these practices has little impact on results. ” ABC News. Keeter.” ABC News. Newbury Park: Sage Publications.. D.M.” Paper presented at the annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. Lavrakas. (2004). Bauman.L. Montreal. 2005: http://abcnews.M.” September 23. “ABC News' Polling Methodology and Standards: The Nuts and Bolts of our Public Opinion Surveys.” Nov.aapor. Pew Research Center (2004a). T. and Merkle. org/commentary/display. P. “Party ID: The Long March to Political Parity. “After His Convention a Tepid Bump for Kerry.” Public Opinion Quarterly 64:125-148. 23. P. 2004..J.” Paper presented at the annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. Kohut A. (1993). “Campaign Enters Decisive Phase with an Advantage to Bush. Phoenix.. Langer. Canada. Selection and Supervision. and Demos.” In Proceedings of the Section on Survey Research Methods. Last accessed: May 4.. (1993). “Party Affiliation: What It Is and What It Isn’t.” ABC News.org/pdfs/varsource. “The ABC’s of Election Polling. Last accessed: http://www. D. Merkle. D.com/US/ story?id=145373&page=1 Langer.pdf Langer. and Merkle. G. TN. Telephone Survey Methods: Sampling. S. Morris.go. (2004). Last accessed May 3. G. (2004). Groves R.com/ images/pdf/958a1AftertheDemocratic Convention. 2005: http://abcnews.pdf . Miller C. VA: American Statistical Association.” October. D. “Sources of Variation in Published Election Polling: A Primer. G.php3?AnalysisID=102 Zukin. org/commentary/pdf/97.M. S.J. conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research..pdf Langer. September 9. (2004a). “The Impact of Callbacks on Survey Estimates in an Annual RDD Survey. August 2. Langer. and Lavrakas. (2001).134 Daniel Merkle et al.com/images/pdf/961a1Post-LaborDayPolitics. Sussman. AZ. G. Nashville. Alexandria. Last accessed May 3.go. Last accessed: May 4. 2005: http://abcnews. D. (2004b).go.M. C. “Pre-Election Polls Largely Accurate: Lessons from Campaign ’04. (2000).pdf Pew Research Center (2004b). G. Last accessed: http://people-press. and Presser S. “Consequences of Reducing Nonresponse in a National Telephone Survey. 2005: http://people-press. During the campaign proper.The Presidential Elections in France 2007 – The Role of Opinion Polls Brice Teinturier Abstract The French presidential election of 2007 marks a turning point in the country’s Presidential election campaigns. To prevent France falling back into a party system on his death. This would be the constitutional reform of 1962. Lieutenant-Colonel Bastien Thiry. a supporter of French Algeria. The polls also enabled Nicolas Sarkozy to put in place the foundations of a winning strategy. in the hope of blocking the Algerian independence process. This event however had a major consequence: De Gaulle realised that he had had a personal historical legitimacy since 18 June 1940 and a central role in the French Resistance that no other French politician had. tried to assassinate General de Gaulle at a place called Petit Clamart. like under the IV Republic. Public opinion. Lastly. broadly approved by the . opinion polls are becoming just as much tools of communication and issues of debate as instruments for understanding public opinion and responding to the public’s expectations. De Gaulle’s car was riddled with bullets but the General was safe and sound. 1 Background On 22 August 1962. many different tools were also used. measuring it and disseminating opinion poll results play a decisive and so far unmatched role in the selection of candidates. he decided to propose by referendum that the French President of the Republic be thenceforth elected by direct universal suffrage. despite these precedents. 42 years later. Already. opinion polls played a role going beyond that of a simple tool for finding out and understanding public opinion: they had become a political resource enabling Edouard Balladur to put pressure on deputies and achieve mass rallying in favour of his candidacy in the presidential election. asserting his modernity and greater ability to win over the middle classes. such was the lead of the then Prime Minister over the President of the RPR1 – Jacques Chirac did not however withdraw and the election campaign turned around. for the 1 Rassemblement pour la République. the opinion polls were used by Michel Rocard’s supporters who were looking to impose their candidate against François Mitterrand. . France is experiencing its 8th presidential election by direct universal suffrage and an electoral campaign without precedent. the 2007 presidential elections mark a turning point in the use of opinion polls. during the competition at the heart of the right between Edouard Balladur and Jacques Chirac. in 1980. this election. Likewise. charmed and influenced. which not only marked a change of system but also pushed French democracy into the era of mass media and opinion polls: the moment the electorate was constituted by all French people. However. in 1995. which needed to be understood. What are its main ingredients and what is the role of opinion polls? 2 A Long Campaign: Short-Listing of Candidates and the Role of Opinion Polls The role of opinion polls in short-listing candidates is not new in itself. since Jacques Chirac. is not standing. in particular those by SOFRES and IFOP. but also television and opinion polls. the President in office. public opinion became a major issue.136 Brice Teinturier French. The first presidential election by universal suffrage in 1965 saw two main players emerge: De Gaulle and Mitterrand. Indeed. and its nature: for the first time. and therefore the measuring of it. has ever been a candidate in a presidential election before. but which included the historic record number of candidates (16) and the dispersion of votes on the left undeniably played a part. no potential candidate from within the major political organisations. as it began at the end of 2005. is not being held in the wake of cohabitation and is not pitting a Prime Minister against an incumbent President. Martine Aubry and Bertrand Delanoë. on the left. For all these reasons. Also. and again for the first time since 1969. Jean-Louis Borloo and Jean-Pierre Raffarin can legitimately consider standing. and there are many. which very quickly revealed the ascendancy of Ségolène Royal in public opinion. which everyone has in mind: Lionel Jospin’s ousting occurred for a variety of reasons. François Hollande. Nicolas Sarkozy. Jack Lang. The Socialist Party case is a perfect example of this internal competition within the Socialist Party: an open competition and the decisive weight of public opinion. Ségolène Royal. Laurent Fabius. the 2007 election campaign will be preceded by a very long pre-campaign period for selecting the Socialist Party’s candidate and the UMP candidate. Michel Alliot Marie. Dominique Strauss-Khan. take precedence over other political resources. like for example management of the Party or the offices previously held by the candidates. From this point of view. from the Socialist Party. This dual singularity weakens therefore in principle the candidates’ legitimacy: on the right. Dominique de Villepin. the support of public opinion. The media have been interested in the Socialist Party’s internal contest since 2005. Two elements characterise this process: its length. . 2007 does indeed mark a historic turning point and maybe irreversible in the history of French election campaigns. TNS Sofres did several waves of polls for Figaro Magazine and the TV channel France 5. from the UMP2. Add to this the result of the first round of the 2002 presidential elections.The Presidential Elections in France 2007 137 first time in 19 years. 2 Union pour un Mouvement Populaire. Laurent Fabius.e. embodied the past and a way of doing politics that the French had totally rejected. She is therefore in step with French public opinion. even though a former Prime Minister and one of the great leaders of the Socialist Party. The opinion polls bear this out. Conversely.138 Brice Teinturier Table 1. RTL. i. both in terms of image and election potential. and the largest 24-hr news channel. Fran- . Le Figaro. highly visible since it was done for the main French daily. This measure also highlighted Ségolène Royal’s supremacy over her competitors in public opinion. Ségolène Royal responds to a demand for togetherness and co production in a project bringing the country together. There were some basic reasons for this: the most obvious was that the demand for change was sweeping the country and it played greatly in Ségolène Royal’s favour. particularly with left sympathisers. On the one hand. and this is the other reason. Thus. Jack Lang is throwing in the towel and not standing. Support for Candidacy Left sympathisers Ségolène Royal Dominique StraussKahn Laurent Fabius Lionel Jospin Jack Lang François Hollande François Bayrou December February 2005 2006 69% 41% 25% 50% 53% 44% 39% 75% 44% 25% 43% 48% 42% 40% May 2006 78% 40% 25% 45% 53% 41% 42% September November 2006 2006 82% 41% 22% 40% 46% 39% 42% 78% 54% 27% Not tested Not tested Not tested 49% “Objectif 2007” Polls TNS Sofres / LE FIGARO MAGAZINE and FRANCE 5 From May 2006. LCI. over a year before the elections. TNS Sofres put in place a second measure. And they strengthen her position. in addition to embodying change. which is very apparent in the country and on the left. His battle in favour of the No to the European Constitutional Treaty also reinforced a latent image of an opportunistic and insincere politician. the leading radio station. the activists voted not only for someone who matched more their aspirations.5 7 36 2 10 3 5 3 29. Sarkozy) Base: out of 100 votes cast Arlette Laguiller Olivier Besancenot Marie-George Buffet Ségolène Royal Dominique Voynet François Bayrou Nicolas Sarkozy Philippe de Villiers Jean-Marie Le Pen Did not express voting intention 17-18 14-15 17 4-5 4-5 12-13 8-9 May 06 June 06 July 06 Sep.5 3 4 2 34 1 7 36 2 11 2. Socialist Party’s activists are voting in considerable numbers in her favour to wear the Party’s colours at the presidential election. but also for the candidate whom opinion polls indicated was the most able to beat Nicolas Sarkozy.5 3 34 1.5 4 4 3 32 1. Royal / N.5 2 7 38 3 9. In spite of all the candiTable 2.5 8 34 4 10 3. As for the opinion polls.5 5 3 30 2.5 6 2 32 2 8 31 3 12.5 7 34 2 13 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 16 % 14 % 21 % 18 % 21 % 20 % 19 % “Presidential Elections Barometer” TNS Sofres / UNILOG for RTL / Le Figaro / LCI . 06 Oct. We shall never know if in the end.5 4 2 34 1.The Presidential Elections in France 2007 139 çois Hollande too. By voting. Laurent Fabius or Dominique Strauss-Kahn might have done better than Ségolène Royal against Nicolas Sarkozy. 06 Nov. On the other hand.5 6 35 3 11. The weight of public opinion has therefore been decisive: the candidate of the ‘democracy of opinion’ beat the candidates of the party.5 3 3. giving Laurent Fabius and Dominique Strauss Kahn only 40% of their vote. Change in Voting Intentions in the First Round of the Presidential Elections (Hypothesis with S. 06 Oct. they did not create the Royal phenomenon. even though he is the Socialist Party’s First Secretary.06 3. but they undeniably strengthened it. at the end of a long internal campaign. But what is certain is that this advantage in the opinion polls over Nicolas Sarkozy also played a role in the candidate nomination by Socialist Party’s activists.5 20 4 10 38 3 11 100 % 5 6.5 11 40 2 11. Hollande / J.5 100 % Lang 4. a number of prominent individuals were in a position to claim the role of UMP candidate in the presidential election – including Jacques Chirac.5 11 100 % “Presidential Elections Barometer” TNS Sofres / UNILOG. for RTL / Le Figaro / LCI Done on 4 and 5 September 2006 date’s campaign weaknesses and mistakes. Internal Competition on the Right: A Quieter Competition but Just as Fierce and Equally Dominated by Opinion Poll Issues In 2005 and even at the start of 2006.5 4 23 4 9 37 2 11.5 5.5 9 37 2. Voting Intentions in the First Round of the Presidential Elections (Hypotheses with S. the author greatly doubts it.5 4 23 3.HolKahn lande 4 5. on the one hand.5 38 2 11. Jospin / L.140 Brice Teinturier Table 3. Wave 5. Fabius / D.5 4 20 3. Strauss-Kahn / F.5 100 % Fabius 5 7 5 13 5. Royal / L. Lang) Royal Arlette Laguiller Olivier Besancenot Marie-George Buffet Socialist Party Candidate Dominique Voynet François Bayrou Nicolas Sarkozy Philippe de Villiers Jean-Marie Le Pen 3 3. things were far from being in Nicolas Sarkozy’s favour.5 100 % Strauss.5 3 34 1.5 7 36 2 10 100 % Jospin 4 5.5 9.5 4. fierce competition opposed Nicolas Sarkozy to the Prime Min- . on the other hand. and also its publication in the candidate selection process. Support for Candidacy Right sympathisers Nicolas Sarkozy Dominique de Villepin François Bayrou Jean-Marie Le Pen Philippe de Villiers December February 2005 2006 76% 72% 44% 24% 29% 85% 69% 49% 17% 31% May 2006 86% 43% 44% 26% 36% September November 2006 2006 89% 40% 37% 32% 31% 82% 44% 46% 24% 28% “Objectif 2007” Polls TNS Sofres / LE FIGARO MAGAZINE and FRANCE 5 . Table 4. the Prime Minister’s dynamic in public opinion stopped dead: his popularity slumped. with exaggerated importance placed on public opinion. the Prime Minister simply could not stand as a candidate against Nicolas Sarkozy. all the polls showed that the President of the UMP was crushing his rivals. it was public opinion again which made a difference: after the failure of the “First Employment Contract” (CPE). 2007 did indeed mark a turning point in French presidential election campaigns. At the end of 2006. whereas that of Nicolas Sarkozy was maintained as the most popular politician of the right throughout the period. way above that of previous campaigns. which Dominique de Villepin tried to impose. who asserted himself as the only true great rival to the Minister of the Interior. the only one who literally imposed himself on public opinion and on his political family.The Presidential Elections in France 2007 141 ister in office. In such a context of public opinion. its measurement. yet again. Dominique de Villepin. But. even though Nicolas Sarkozy had the will and political skill to seize the party by becoming President of the UMP and by refusing to submit to Jacques Chirac’s order to choose between this post and government participation. This phenomenon explains the very large number of polls carried out and published. the internal competition organised within the UMP then became a sham which fooled no-one: Nicolas Sarkozy was the only candidate possible. de Villepin / M.5 5 2 40 2.5 14. for RTL / Le Figaro / LCI Done on 12 and 13 October 2006 3 Nicolas Sarkozy’s Victory: The Foundations Nicolas Sarkozy’s victory is broad and unappealing: by winning over 30% of votes cast in the first round. he strengthened this victory. Sarkozy / D. Wave 7. By winning 53% of votes cast in the second round. This victory was the result of a triple reconstruction. The Ideological Reconstruction of the Right Since the end of the 90s. Voting Intentions in the First Round of the Presidential Elections (Hypotheses with N. Alliot-Marie) Base: out of 100 votes cast Arlette Laguiller Olivier Besancenot Marie-George Buffet Ségolène Royal Dominique Voynet François Bayrou UMP Candidate Philippe de Villiers Jean-Marie Le Pen Did not express voting intention Nicolas Sarkozy 3 4 2 34 1 7 36 2 11 100 % 20 % Dominique De Villepin 3 5 2 39 3 11 18 5 14 100 % 20 % Michèle Alliot-Marie 3.5 10 17 5.142 Brice Teinturier Table 5. the French right in general and Nicolas Sarkozy in particular have been thinking about the ideological cor- .5 100 % 20 % “Presidential Elections Barometer” TNS Sofres / UNILOG. the UMP candidate offered his political family a score that Jacques Chirac never achieved. which was all the more remarkable as the right had been in power since 2002 and Nicolas Sarkozy had himself been in the Government for 5 years. both in the presidential and legislative elections. that public space was no longer being respected as public space where one has not only rights but obligations. the feeling that things were no longer in their place. that citizens were abusing their social rights to the detriment of other citizens. Above all. At the time of the dissolution of 1997 and of a very particular political context. He had the advantage of opening up perspectives. this feeling was very strong amongst right sympathisers and also spread to the left and the working classes. that children no longer respected their parents or teachers. The right would then cleverly oppose such a measure and. But the demand for order and authority went further than simply the issue of insecurity. It focused on a series of points and values which the opinion polls. These were also accompanied by an intensification of work and an increasing search for higher productivity. for over 5 years it would develop a discourse of “rehabilitation of the value of labour”: “Work more and earn more” would be one of the great slogans of Nicolas Sarkozy’s campaign. the French people were much divided in their opinion of it: the 35-hour week had in effect led to a significant wage restraint and a drop in purchasing power which affected the working classes in particular. . without challenging it head-on. it was during these years that the ideological corpus of the right was revisited.The Presidential Elections in France 2007 143 pus of their political family. the left won the legislative elections with as their symbolic measure the 35-hour week and youth employment. • The rehabilitation of labour: Lionel Jospin’s Government put in place the 35-hour week. both quantitative and qualitative. Even though the right won again in 2002. had helped clearly identify: • The demand for order and authority: insecurity was at the heart of the 2002 presidential campaign and Jacques Chirac won mainly thanks to this theme and the feeling that the left did not understand this issue to its full extent or that it was not capable of responding to it. and spanned the whole of French society. But after a few years. limit its effects. to opt for a private fee-paying school. Nicolas Sarkozy knew this. for schools with less children of immigrant background. parents are obliged to send their children to a school in their local area or. By developing a discourse based on “the right of each parent to choose the school he/she wants for his/her child”. without even mentioning the problem of immigration underlying this issue. if they do not. The issue of challenging “school mapping” (carte scolaire) is a perfect example of this: in the French system. still thrives. in order not to lay himself open to attack. in underprivileged areas. it was framed in a discourse on national solidarity. That is why his economic proposals would be sufficiently “catch-all” so as never to allow the left to pigeonhole him as a liberal candidate. The primacy of the individual would then also be at the heart of Nicolas Sarkozy’s project even though. Nicolas Sarkozy is in reality quite in step with this increase in individual rights and demands. Thus he conveyed the . borne by several centuries of history. the country also has a stubborn attitude towards a discourse too focused on liberalism: the tradition of an interventionist and protective State. For historical reasons. and on the other criticised as supporting inequality.144 Brice Teinturier responding to the demand to increase purchasing power and to confine the left to a form of archaism and naivety in the face of the new issues arising from globalisation. • The rise in individual values: France has not escaped the slow but profound and continuous movement of individualisation of attitudes and behaviour. Likewise. But this system is on the one hand becoming more and more circumvented by parents looking. The aim of this measure is to encourage social intermixing and equal opportunities. globalisation is seen more as a threat than an opportunity. including on the right. • The impact of globalisation and rejection of liberalism: in France. the UMP candidate would develop a new discourse on the unemployed in step with a more individualistic public opinion: the latter could no longer refuse more than twice a job “in accordance with their qualifications” and continue to draw unemployment benefit. Three-quarters of the operation would be achieved. The socialist candidate would continuously convey the feeling of being at odds with her own party and of not having overall political cohesion. voluntarism. TNS Sofres would also produce studies specific to each of these conventions. the UMP. is resisting and surviving as a political organisation. providing the candidate with extremely useful material. taking account of the individual. This ideological reconstruction would fundamentally set him apart from Ségolène Royal: she had a feeling for most of the aforementioned elements. or even of a break. But it is at the price of a major drain of many of its leaders and major elected . success. but the Socialist Party had difficulty taking them into account and articulating increasing individual values with an ideological basis marked by a logic of community. with the UMP staging “UMP conventions” on a whole series of major themes. order. It was done openly. extolling duties as well as rights would comprise the fabric of the ideological discourse of the right from the year 2000 throughout the UMP candidate’s campaign. This ideological reconstruction had the merit of being real. whose vocation was to end the competition between the Gaullists (the RPR) and the centre right (the UDF). Of course. only sound intuitions.The Presidential Elections in France 2007 145 feeling of wanting and being able to profoundly reform the country – and the expectation of change. solidarity and equality. one step ahead. in the person of François Bayrou. is considerable – by uniting the movement. 4 Reshaping Political Support A major element of French political life was put in place in 2002: the constitution of a single major party of the right. rather liberal measures (such as the non-replacement of one in every two retiring civil servants) and ongoing economic interventionism in the purest De Gaulle-Pompidou tradition! Respect for others and authority. legible and coherent. rehabilitation of labour. the UDF. François Bayrou has understood this and is repositioning it. . Jacques Chirac tried to ostracise Jean-Marie Le Pen but without success. But. who are joining the UMP and bringing to it the support of the centrist and liberal sensibility. But despite his efforts. Nicolas Sarkozy would beat Dominique de Villepin at this game. the UMP was not originally of Nicolas Sarkozy’s making. The UDF’s political space is shrinking dangerously. For 25 years. forced his way into the second round. an initiative which was all his own work: he made the winning back of the working classes in general and of Front National voters in particular a central objective of his politics and his campaign. no longer at the centre right. as we have said. but almost. but at the centre. 5 Strategic Break Although it was in his grasp. bundled Jacques Chirac aside and imposed himself as uncontested leader. But. His rivals would have no option but to mount a public opinion strategy to counter him. But the UMP President would introduce a fundamental break in strategy away from Jacques Chirac. He took hold of the presidency. looking to attract both those disappointed with the Socialist Party and a right sensibility irritated by Nicolas Sarkozy. and he said it loud and clear. with 17%. Jean-Marie Le Pen had been a thorn in the right’s foot. a major party of the right has well and truly been born: it does not represent the whole of the right. The recipe had 3 main ingredients: • Continuous condemnation of all xenophobia in order to position himself clearly in the republican camp and avoid any criticism from the left. again guided by opinion polls. in 2002. to win back. Nicolas Sarkozy has understood the importance of controlling such a support machine.146 Brice Teinturier representatives. Nicolas Sarkozy would break with this practice and give himself the means. He regularly won around 15% of the vote and. He had also been very careful not to adopt any of his themes. some say. is obsessed by immigration. reshaping political support. but more so in the FN. to Front National voters. For the first time in over 20 years. which in reality is deeply xenophobic. Nicolas Sarkozy would lift this taboo. He was therefore sending out a whole series of signals. Sarkozy and around 22% of those who voted for Le Pen in 2002 declared that they wanted to vote for him. The polls would show the opposite: an ever larger share of FN sympathisers was attracted by N. that. convincing them to opt for the “Sarkozy option”. speak about immigration. Its electorate. this was actually the case. explicit and implicit. anchored in action. • Use of the immigration theme: this is the big taboo in French political life and plays into the Front National’s hands. raise the problems it could pose to French society and propose measures while appearing to remain in the republican camp. of playing into Le Pen’s hands and strengthening him by legitimising his arguments. The Willingness to Embody Change Ideological reconstruction. he was part of the action and the results culture. At the following legislative elections. stopping them feeling guilty and at the same time. at the Ministry of the Interior. strategy for winning over Front National voters: to these 3 pillars Nicolas Sarkozy would add a fourth: embody change. rather than for the “Le Pen option”. On 22 April. the UMP leader was taking an enormous risk.The Presidential Elections in France 2007 147 • Demonstration/staging of continuous action: the demand for action is high in all electorates. This would be his obsession: he had been in the Government for 5 years and knew . In so doing. This was a stinging defeat for the FN leader. reduced to a simple and sterile protest. the FN was nearly annihilated and dropped below 5%. Le Pen won less than 11% of the vote in the presidential elections. Nicolas Sarkozy did not stop showing how much. “The energy of the boss” was obvious and it pleased this working-class electorate … The fight against insecurity and youth delinquency also had great potential. he would be beaten. • Snapshot surveys at decisive moments. he embodied continuity. including at critical moments like the rise in power of François Bayrou. who was not the boss but the number 2 in the Government. as a candidate. Nicolas Sarkozy’s slogan would therefore be … break! And all his proposals would be organised and presented as if they had the potential for a break with the past. the campaign would not reveal any major shifts in relation to the strategy as a whole. The incumbent. very importantly. which also help improve elements of language and create the effect of reality.148 Brice Teinturier that if. had succeeded in embodying change. Success yet again: Only 38% of French people thought that if Ségolène Royal were elected. consistency. and the candidate’s outstanding statesmanship. Other tools would be used during the campaign which ran from January to April: • On-line panels. as social depression and the political crisis were so profound at the time. Because of these tools. helping to identify swing voters and to look in detail at the reasons that cause them to leave/join a particular candidate. . for a profound change. thereby creating great clarity and. • Monitoring of public opinion via regular qualitative surveys and open questions. 63% if it were Nicolas Sarkozy. • Systematic and real-time post-testing of the candidate’s main TV or radio appearances. there would be profound changes in France. 6 The Campaign Follow-up and Adjustments The very strong presence of Nicolas Sarkozy on the ground and the use of a very large number of polls and qualitative surveys helped to adjust the foundations of this election and to support strategy. but this debate punctuated the campaign and fed into it a continual air of “suspense” regarding the final rating the candidates would achieve. Some of Nicolas Sarkozy’s proposals. They were wrong. commentators and/or supporters of Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal saw these second round hypotheses as false and manipulative. they were then legitimised and it became much more difficult to criticise them. The rise in power of François Bayrou also represented a major campaign challenge: Initially. not simply tools for monitoring and understanding public opinion. When these polls then showed that François Bayrou might follow close on Ségolène Royal’s heels and. were measured by opinion polls: gaining strong support in public opinion. order and authority. beat Nicolas Sarkozy. purchasing power. Often these were the same people who blamed pollsters for not testing the second rounds with Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002 but what did consistency matter to them … TNS Sofres’ doctrine on this point was very clear and praised by the me- . immigration. 7 Opinion Polls – Tools of Communication and Subjects of Debate Opinion polls were issues in the presidential election campaign. and interestingly. when he peaked at 8%. who would succeed in imposing the major controversies and the way to approach them: the “revaluation of labour”. The low rating recorded for the Front National also met with scepticism from the commentators. the polemic shifted: François Bayrou stopped criticising them (!).The Presidential Elections in France 2007 149 The other contribution made by the polls would concern campaign themes: it was Nicolas Sarkozy. who did not stop questioning it. the UDF candidate denounced the opinion polls and an alleged collusion with the “powerful” and the media serving the major candidates. more than Ségolène Royal. if he reached the second round. criticised by commentators. 8 In Conclusion This article covers barely a fraction of the history of the French presidential elections of 2007. in the selection of can- . Sarkozy. in finding out public opinion. in addition to second rounds pitting Royal against Sarkozy. second rounds pitting Sarkozy against Bayrou were also processed and published. new political programmes. then. if the gap was greater. they do not create a public opinion phenomenon but. involving over 100 French people asking the candidates questions. is the extent to which study tools have played a triple role in this campaign. On the other hand. the polls undeniably accelerated Ségolène Royal’s loss of credibility the moment they showed her drop in public opinion and her low presidential credibility compared with that of N. One might also discuss the reasons for Ségolène Royal’s defeat and François Bayrou’s unexpected success. like “J’ai une question à vous poser” (“I have a question to ask you”).150 Brice Teinturier dia: as soon as the first round showed a gap of under 5 points between Ségolène Royal and François Bayrou. In this sense. aiming to draw a parallel between the handling of the campaign by the media. can reinforce it. and precisely in order not to encourage opinion poll manipulation. A close analysis of agenda effects is also underway. Lastly. The hyper-personalization of the campaign is also the subject of an in-depth study. What is accepted on the other hand and which we aimed to point out here. once it has been measured and published. have marked a fundamental change in political communication and relationships with public opinion. second rounds with Bayrou were neither processed nor published. created by TF1 and TNS Sofres. Lastly. the role of current affairs and the themes fore grounded by candidates during this period. which is used to support the foundations of strategy via highly diverse tools and techniques. and always a fundamental role: firstly. 5 28 1 1 11 .5 2.5 1 < 0. 14-15 28 Feb.5 25.5 13 32 0. This shift is irreversible and makes opinion polls and proper use of them a decisive element in a candidate’s success.5 2.5 1 0.5 < 0. can reinforce it.The Presidential Elections in France 2007 151 didates.5 1 21.5 1 13 3 2. once it has been measured and published.5 12 2 2 < 0.5 < 0.5 1.5 18.5 4 1. Change in Voting Intentions in the First Round of the Presidential Elections 2007 Base: 17-18 31 Jan.5 2 26.5 4 2.5 12 33 1 < 0.5 0.5 23 27 < 0. Table 6.5 2 12.5 3 2.5 13 2 3 2 3. lastly.5 < 0. as an object of communication and/or issues of debate.5 2 3. the moment they showed her drop in public opinion and her low presidential credibility compared with that of N. Feb.5 31 0.5 9 35 0. 7-8 14-15 21-22 out of 100 votes cast Jan. the polls undeniably accelerated Ségolène Royal’s loss of credibility. they do not create a public opinion phenomenon but.5 12 2 3.5 24 1 22 31 1 < 0.5 26 1.5 2 2. as a measurement of a public opinion resource that has become decisive. Sarkozy.5 1 12 2.5 26 1 0. 1 March March March March Arlette Laguiller Olivier Besancenot Gérard Schivardi José Bové Marie-George Buffet Ségolène Royal Dominique Voynet Corinne Lepage François Bayrou Nicolas Sarkozy Nicolas DupontAignan Frédéric Nihous Philippe de Villiers Jean-Marie Le Pen 2 3 3 31 2 0.5 25. Lastly.5 1.5 < 0.5 < 0. In this sense. 1 Feb.5 0. April April April April April Arlette Laguiller Olivier Besancenot Gérard Schivardi José Bové Marie-George Buffet Ségolène Royal Dominique Voynet Corinne Lepage François Bayrou Nicolas Sarkozy Nicolas DupontAignan Frédéric Nihous Philippe de Villiers Jean-Marie Le Pen 1 3.5 25 1.69 <0.5 2.5 2.5 4 0.5 1 2.5 1.34 1.41 1.76 31 1.18 2.5 1 12 1.5 24 1 19.15 0.5 2.5 19 28.5 13 2.5 28 1.5 1.5 13 Official results 22 April 2007 1.5 5 <0.5 1.5 27 1 18 30 1 1 12 2.5 1 20 28 1.5 14 1.5 14 1.95 25.5 26 1.152 Brice Teinturier Table 6 (continued) Base: out of votes cast 28-29 4-5 11-12 16-17 18-19 20-21 Mar.5 0.5 2 25 1 18 30 1 2.5 0.31 1.57 18.5 “Presidential Elections Barometer” TNS Sofres / UNILOG for RTL / Le Figaro / LCI .5 1.5 1.5 4 2 3 23.5 1.5 <0.29 10.34 4.5 17 30 1.5 4 2 2.5 3. pundits and pollsters observed almost universally that the election was “too close to call. In addition. Although the history of Canadian voter turnout is one of gradual decline. In the end.9 per cent in 2004.TM Using this approach reveals a disengaged. and because a close race leads to greater activity to mobilize voters on behalf of the parties. The lack of a large committed group of Canadians combined with the large pool of people with a low commitment to voting is the key to understanding how turnout could have dropped so significantly so fast. This chapter considers the dramatic decline from the perspective of a proprietary segmentation tool. across a four election period turnout dropped by 15 points to 60. the election was not as close as it seemed likely to be and turnout was again lower. uncommitted electorate that represents a challenge to the future of democratic participation.Voters Lack Commitment: Canada Richard Jenkins Abstract.” A close election should have elicited a positive impact on turnout by increasing the likelihood that voters will see their vote as being meaningful. the party competition and the reporting of polls during the election period are strongly related to the likelihood of voting with the Liberal Party enjoying a strong advantage of low turnout. Turnout did rise somewhat in 2006. Conversion Model. though only slightly lower than the previous election.9 per cent. 1 Background In the days leading up to the 2004 federal election. but did not return to previous levels. they seem incapable of explaining such a dramatic fall. to 64. Although there are clearly long-term forces at play. . combined with election-to-election fluctuations. contextual (time of year and competitiveness of election) and individual (e. etc). however. These cross-national studies have found that turnout is related to structural (turnout is lower in first past the post electoral systems). the election context. Blais 2000). The decline in turnout in Western democracies has been accompanied by shifts in public attitudes about politics that have been variously categorized as a decline in trust or confidence (Pharr and Putnam. in the Canadian case.g.154 Richard Jenkins Why did turnout not rise under these conditions and why has it declined overall? Did the closeness of the election prevent a worse deterioration of turnout? Does turnout matter for which party wins? Political scientists have devoted considerable effort to try to understand why turnout has declined and the reasons why some people turnout while others do not (see Pammett 1991. 2000) or. age and education) factors. which links the change in culture to the fact that postwar generations grew up in a time of economic prosperity and are. less concerned with traditional political conflicts and participation (Iyengar. The evidence here . 1997). Franklin 1996. therefore. 1996). The decision to vote on election day reflects a combination of short and long-term force. We know. Clearly each individual has a propensity to vote based on their individual characteristics (age. One of the most frequently cited explanation for the cultural change understands it in terms of the development of post materialism. as a “decline in deference” (Nevitte. gender. the electoral system but all previous research has relied on estimating these effects based on how people acted (or reported their actions). By starting with commitment we can better understand the fundamental structure of public opinion that sets the context for the decision to participate or not. that people do things for a variety of reasons and that the gradual decline in actual voting may have deceived us in to believing that citizens were fairly loyal to the electoral system when in fact they were clearly being affected more fundamentally by the changes to the society in which they live. but most are at least at some risk of not voting in any given election. though Canada is relatively low. Many still vote. As a percentage of voting age rather than registered voters. The decline in turnout is not unique to Canada. What then is the cause of this observed decline in turnout? .Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 155 indicates that we have a disengaged electorate that is not committed to voting. Before 2004 it was tempting to attribute some of the decline in terms of voter turnout to the context of the elections in the 1990s and 2000. Though only marginally lower than in 2000 (61. turnout rebounded somewhat. The Liberals easily won majorities in each election and Canadians expressed high levels of satisfaction with the direction of the country throughout their period of government. In 2006. there are some parties that are advantaged by low voter turnout.9 per cent. This represents an all-time low for federal participation. the actual turnout is even lower (Johnston 2000). In the 1984 and 1988 elections. The lack of commitment among voters is clearly driven by the general disengagement from politics that has been noted in Canada and other democracies. If this explanation makes sense for the elections in 1997 and 2000. the previous low). it does not for the 2004 election when the Liberals were no longer as popular and the Conservative Party had been formed to present a united right wing alternative to the Liberals.2. Importantly. especially when it comes to turnout as a percentage of voting age population (Johnston 2000). which affects younger voters in particular. 2 Turnout in Canada: The Evidence Elections Canada reports that turnout in the 2004 federal election was 60. turnout was as high as 75 per cent. when we consider vote intention. Turnout is declining in most established democracies (Blais 2000) so the evidence from Canada is likely to be of value in understanding the dynamics of turnout elsewhere. which seemed to offer Canadians little choice and little drama. 2004 was the fourth consecutive election in which turnout has declined. (2004) separate out the impact of period effects (something unique to a particular time that inflates or deflates turnout). whereby all groups are less likely to vote (about 3 points) in elections after 1990. . Turnout in Federal Elections: 1962 to 2006 Source: Elections Canada In a recent paper. conclude that.1 60 60.9 64.9 50 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Fig. Blais et al.156 80 79 Richard Jenkins 74.7 76. 1. Older people have traditionally voted at a higher rate.7 75.3 71 70 69.3 75. Blais et al. between 1968 and 2000. life-cycle effects (a change in the effect of aging on voting) and generational effects (the process of being born into a particular time and place because the relationship between age and voting is central to potentially understanding who votes). then some portion of the decline in turnout may be a function of generational replacement (older generations with a higher propensity to vote are being replaced over time by generations with a lower propensity to vote).8 75. If there is a generational effect. so it is important to understand whether this is a lifecycle or generational effect. the main reason for the decline in voting is caused by generational replacement.3 67 64.6 69.7 75. There is also a period effect. 2004 with a random sample of 1.2 percentage points. Data were weighted by household composition. Turnout is an elusive concept when measured in surveys. The survey was in field between May 31 and June 6. we replace the question. as the authors of the study note. because people tend to either intentionally or unintentionally misreport their previous voting history and their likelihood of voting in future elections (Bernstein et al. consistent with the findings from the U. In addition. turnout is a dichotomous variable (one either votes or one does not) that does not capture the underlying relationship between the attitudes people have and the decision to vote or not. 2004). (Lyons and Alexander 2000). the decline in turnout “reflects a larger cultural change” (Blais et al. 2001). In effect. Blais et al. age. gender and region. As such. With a sample of this size. suggest that the most recent generations are less likely to vote because they pay less attention to politics and because they do not see voting as a moral duty. 3 Methodology This examination of turnout during the 2004 election campaign is based on a telephone survey conducted early in the campaign. “how committed are Canadians to voting?” To answer the latter question we use a theory of commitment that is operationalized in the Conversion Model (for further elaboration of the model the reader is invited to see Hofmeyer and . “why do some people vote?” with. the results can be considered accurate within plus or minus 3.Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 157 Finding that the decline in voter turnout is a product of generational replacement is. 19 times out of 20.. It may be interesting to observe that a person did not vote but we cannot be sure whether this choice is a product of a fundamental lack of caring about voting or more superficial matters.S. That said. The starting point here is to see voting as flowing from a more general theory of human behaviour. generational replacement as an explanation for the decline does not really explain why younger generations are less likely to vote.018 Canadians. then the person making the choice has invested in the choice they have made. Commitment to voting is a function of three psychological dimensions: satisfaction. they are more likely to continue to make the same choice. . This feeling of being pulled undermines one’s commitment to voting. of course. The Conversion Model is based upon the idea that there is a “general process whereby people develop commitments in order to satisfy needs and values” (Ceurvorst. The impact of this ambivalence will. 1994). If a person. involvement. The theory of commitment is general so it applies to any situation where people make choices either to do or not do something or to choose one brand of a product rather than another (Hofmeyr and Bennett. Involvement is the degree to which the choice matters to the person. Finally there is ambivalence. Is the choice making them happy or not? If they are satisfied. and the attraction of the alternatives or ambivalence. depend on one’s satisfaction with the current choice and the level of involvement.158 Richard Jenkins Rice. The Conversion Model segments people based on their commitment to their current choice and potential for change. we operationalize satisfaction in terms of an evaluation of the politicians and parties that people must choose to elect. If a choice is important. 2000). Changing their course of action will not likely be done lightly for those who have a lot invested. The more important or involved a person is the more he or she has something at stake in changing their position. 1993). feels there are good reasons for voting as well as good reasons for not voting then he or she is being pulled in different directions. Satisfaction refers to the extent to which someone is happy with the choice they are making. Different people think that different choices they make are important. which is the extent to which there is uncertainty felt about what is the right choice. People for whom the act of voting is important are more likely to vote. All other things being equal someone is more likely to cast a vote for a person whom he or she likes. In this case. For example. 4 Findings There is a weak level of commitment to voting in the Canadian population consistent with the overall low turnout. It is extremely likely these people will vote when given the opportunity. • CONVERTIBLE/“Non-Voters”: One in four (26%) is highly uncommitted to voting and highly unlikely to vote on election day.Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 159 These different dimensions interact and a person’s level of commitment is a product of this interaction. especially if he or she does not feel ambivalence. The person who sees voting as a moral or social obligation will be involved and therefore more likely to vote in spite of low satisfaction. • AVERAGE/“Likely Voters”: Just over one in four (28%) are weakly committed to voting. Only a very small percentage (5%) is in the most committed segment (Entrenched) compared with more than one in four who are in the least committed segment (Convertible). They are likely to vote (that is their standard position) but they are not as strongly committed to this position as the entrenched group. low levels of satisfaction may not necessarily mean that people will not vote if they are also highly involved and lacking in ambivalence. are less likely to think that voting is important to them. and less likely to think positively about their choices. They are at risk of not voting because they are more likely to be ambivalent about voting (they see reasons for not voting). given their views. It would be surprising if members of this group voted in any election. • SHALLOW/“At Risk”: Almost two in five (41%) are uncommitted and should be considered at risk of not voting. . • ENTRENCHED/“Voters”: One in twenty (5%) Canadians are strongly committed to voting in elections. over six in ten say that they are certain to vote in the election and another one in five say they are likely to vote during the campaign.160 Richard Jenkins Even if all of those with any propensity to vote (the members of the shallow. In summary. 53 per cent are at least at risk of not voting even though the profess a certain intention.g. only three in four Canadians would cast ballots. when the commitment levels of Canadians to voting are understood. This is important because it would suggest that younger generations are not developing a personal involvement with voting and are actually seeing reasons for not voting. one can see the reason why turnout is low and declining. fully. When asked directly. No wonder that turnout is so low. In fact. the shallow group is at a high risk of not voting and even those who are entrenched or average commitment can be impacted by events out of their control on Election Day (e. It is generally observed that younger age cohorts and those with lower levels of education and income are less likely to vote. average and entrenched groups) decide on election day to vote. Selfreported vote intention does not discriminate very well between those who are likely and those who are unlikely to vote. why do they not turn out on election day and why has turnout declined. Using the commitment results one finds that some of the people who claim to be certain are actually quite likely to not vote. we find an overrepresentation of these groups in the Convertible and Shallow segments. . If people are so certain. In fact. For example. As such. Of course. family emergency or responsibility. poor weather). almost four in ten (39%) youths (under 25) have the lowest level of commitment. the self-reports leave one with the conclusion that there is a large group of people who are going to vote in most elections (they are certain). only 5 per cent of those who claim to be certain fit the entrenched view (“voters”) and 36 per cent are at least average (“likely voters”). which directly contrasts with the commitment results. Consistent with this expectation. Few admit they do not intend to vote. Voters Lack Commitment: Canada Table 1.4 1.1 32.0 6. in opposition at the time.9 72.8 16.6 38. 2006).4 58.1 7.5 38.5%) over the Liberal Party (17.6 23.3 5. which runs only in Quebec. .8 9. Although commitment to voting could also change. had a slight lead (19.6 Self-expressed intention to vote is strongly correlated with commitment but by digging deeper into the psychology of choice. The Conservative Party. The Bloc Quebecois (BQ). only 4 per cent volunteered that they were certain not to vote. More than one in five were unsure of their intention (even after we probed for leaning to one party or another) and one in ten refused to tell us.0 3. Brady and Johnston. Interestingly.0 8. 5 Commitment and Expressed Vote Intention Vote intentions expressed at the beginning of a campaign are somewhat conditional since we know that campaigns can often have an effect in terms of the outcome of an election (see Jenkins.0 14.2 35. one can see that the commitment results provide a compelling picture of the voting psychology. had a decided advantage in that province. we would expect it to be more stable. particularly if the campaign activates an issue of importance to a voter.9 19. Self-reported Likelihood of Voting by Segment Total Certain 161 Likely Unlikely Certain not to vote 5. the national race was clearly close.1 4. Early in the campaign.5 27.2%) and the NDP. the traditional third party was not far behind (13. 2002.8 45.4 5.5%).7 16.1 Entrenched/“Voters” Average/„Likely voters” Shallow/“At risk” Convertible/„Non-voters” Unclassified 4.4 0. 6 6.3 0 23.6 4. Commitment to Voting % intending to vote Entrenched Average for each party (in.5 12.9 6. 11 per cent indicate that they won’t vote and 28 per cent are not sure who they will vote for. we make of these results? Did the Conservatives have an advantage when one considers the likelihood of their voters going to the polls? Does the significant amount of uncertainty about who to vote for reflect the potential for large campaign shifts? Alternatively.0 9.1 11.9 22. which unfortunately for the Liberals are not a very large Table 2.7 35.8 11.5 27.5 7.162 Richard Jenkins What can.Total “Voters” „Likely cluding leaners) voters” Liberal Conservative NDP BQ Other Don’t know Refused Certain not to vote 17. however.6 6.6 13.9 6. the uncertainty about who to vote for decreases as does the self-expressed intention to not vote. Among commit ted voters.0 18.2 15.4 5.2 19.8 9.3 11.7 3. Many likely voters are uncertain who they are going to vote for. Among those identified by the segmentation as non-voters. As one moves to those who are more committed to voting. Vote Intention by Likelihood of Voting (Conversion Model Segment).7 20.3 0 Shallow Convertible “At risk” „Nonvoters” 15.2 1.6 22.7 11. There is also a clear Liberal advantage in the early days of this campaign in terms of the likely turnout of their voters.8 .8 14.3 8. which is clearly reflecting the fact that while they are committed to the voting act they are ambivalent about the choice and/or fail to see the difference that voting would have.1 21.1 13.8 8.9 4.7 10. is this uncertainty a symptom of a lack of commitment? Consider first the relationship between vote intention and commitment to voting (Table 2).5 13.5 15.1 11. Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 163 group, the Liberals have a decided advantage. The Liberal lead among the most likely voters, is in the early days of the campaign offset by the decided lead that the Conservative Party has among voters who are at risk or who are not likely to vote. Figure 2 shows the proportion of each party’s supporters, at the time of the poll, by their level of commitment. Here the Liberal advantage is pronounced. Almost half (48%) of those who intend to vote Liberals are likely voters. In comparison, only 36 per cent of those who intend to vote PC are likely voters. The NDP has a similar profile to the PC party while the BQ intenders are not committed to voting. As a federal party committed to getting Quebec out of the federation and with no chance of forming the government, the commitment among this group may be artificially low. Minor parties clearly have a disadvantage. Few of those who express an intention for one of the minor parties can be counted on by their party to show up. This is consistent with the low likelihood that any minor party candidate will get elected in a first-past-the-post electoral 9 3 4 4 8 3 0 Liberal Conservative NDP BQ Other Undecided 39 33 32 25 16 26 25 36 45 45 51 33 40 50 75 15 19 20 20 43 32 100 Committed Likely At risk Non-voters Note: Distribution of likely voters within party preference (based on decided and leaners) Fig. 2. Degree to Which Parties Can Expect Voters to Cast Ballots 164 Richard Jenkins system. It is also evident that those without a party preference at the beginning of the campaign are also more likely to be non-voters. Overall vote intentions suggested at the beginning of the campaign that the Conservative party had a slight advantage. Nevertheless the Conservative party had a glaring weakness – its supporters were less likely to vote. This is apparent when one considers how the election looked for the Conservatives at the start of the campaign under three rough turnout scenarios. Under the worse case, and unlikely scenario (#1) that only those who are the most committed to voting actually vote (what we have labelled voters and the likely voter groups), the Conservatives were actually five points behind the Liberals. As scenarios 2 and 3 indicate, the larger the share of the uncommitted, who actually have a preference for one of the parties, that gets mobilized, the better the Conservative Party does relative to its competitors. Table 3. Impact of Turnout on Party Success. Level of Turnout Scenarios % intending to vote for each Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Scenario 3: party (including leaners) Only EnEntrenched, Everyone votes trenched and Likely and At Likely Voters risk Voters Liberal Conservative NDP BQ Other 34.8 28.9 20.5 9.0 6.9 28.5 30.3 21.7 11.8 7.7 26.9 29.7 21.2 11.7 10.6 6 Political Engagement and the Democratic Deficit One way to understand the depth of the problem with the low levels of commitment and to validate the segmentation is to consider how people at different levels of commitment to voting feel about aspects of the electoral competition. Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 165 Starting with political engagement, entrenched voters are significantly more engaged in politics, as reflected in their talking about it and their interest in the election. On a ten-point scale the likely voters (entrenched) are very high on average (8.1) reflecting the fact that the segmentation is capturing a core element of what it takes to vote; interest. As we move to groups with lower levels of commitment, we find a drop off in interest, so that those with a shallow commitment differ from those with an average level in being less engaged with elections. Consider that on a ten-point scale the group most likely to not vote has an average value of less than three. This group is so disengaged that it would be a remarkable effort to move them to the shallow level of commitment. Table 4. Political Engagement by Segment. Level of Commitment to Voting Entrenched “Voters” Average „Likely voters” Shallow Convertible “At risk” „Nonvoters” Total Discussed Federal Election in Past Week Often Occasionally Not at all Interest in Federal Election Average (0 to 10 scale) 5.7 24 44 32 20 53 27 30 52 18 26 44 30 14 34 52 8.1 7.4 6.1 2.9 When one asks about the degree to which the current political system is meeting the needs of Canadians, the evidence suggests that Canadians are quite cynical about the political system in which they find themselves. For example, three in four think that those elected to Parliament soon lose touch. In general these beliefs, if acted upon, would undermine the likelihood of voting. 166 Richard Jenkins The attitudes of those who are at risk of not voting or who we consider non-voters are clearly barriers to active engagement in the political process. Cynicism about representation is a key driver, as is the view that one’s vote does not count. The non-voters, not surprisingly, express particularly negative views across all the questions. However, on three of the five questions, this group is not particularly different from those who are merely at risk of not voting (shallow or at-risk voters). Those people with a shallow Table 5. Agreement with Statement by Segment. Level of Commitment to Voting % who agree strongly or somewhat I don't think the government cares much what people like me think. Those elected to Parliament soon lose touch. All federal parties are basically the same; there isn't really a choice. So many people vote that my vote hardly counts for anything. Sometimes politics and government seem so complicated that a person like me can't really understand what's going on. Total Entrenched Average Shallow Convertible “Voters” „Likely vot- “At risk” „Non-voters” ers” 62 46 46 70 77 77 75 66 83 85 44 34 24 46 65 30 32 20 28 41 49 34 43 51 54 Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 167 level of commitment strongly agree that government does not care and politicians lose touch. Where they differ from the non-voter group is in being less negative about whether their vote counts or whether there is any choice. Because they see the value in the choice they are making, the shallow commitment group is only at risk. 7 Summary and Implications The use of commitment as the lens through which to view nonvoting is instructive. By focusing on the underlying structure of how people link their values and interests to their choices – using a measure of commitment – we are able to show that there is only a small contingent of eligible voters are deeply committed to voting (a group that is also older on average). We might expect that in different countries the level of commitment may vary reflecting the combination of cultural and systemic factors in each country. Commitment provides a measure of the underlying relationship that people have to the electoral system that captures these different influences. Where countries have low commitment, like Canada, the electoral system and politics will not exhibit a high level of loyalty as evidenced by people voting regularly in elections. Turnout may rise in some elections or it may decline further. Consider that the commitment findings place into context the fairly steep decline in turnout over the past four elections. A public that was not committed to voting no doubt made the decline possible, since the “period” effect that Blais et al. (2004) report is really a function of the weak attachment felt by Canadians. People were voting but the underlying commitment to voting was likely low. In Canada turnout has not declined further since 2004, but even if turnout does not decline further, there is no reason for complacency. The democratic deficit is clear. More and more Canadians who are eligible to vote are choosing to stay home each election. Commitment is strongest among those who are politically engaged and who identify less with the negative characterizations of the political proc- Blais. Franklin.za. Clearly this highlights the importance of turnout in contemporary political discourse. Niemi and Pippa Norris (eds. Bennett. and Richard Nadeau. who votes and who does not can give some parties an advantage. Ceurvorst. Robert W.” European Journal of Political Research 33: 239–261. References Bernstein. Blais.) Thousand Oaks: Sage.” In Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in Global Perspective. Andre. 2006. Capturing Campaign Effects. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. 2001. Issue 2: 221-236 Brady. Given that the relationship between citizens and their governments has been under strain throughout the globe.co. Lawrence LeDuc. André and Agnieszka Dobrzynska. Importantly. 1994. William Shay.conversionmodel. . Jan and R. “Where Does Turnout Decline Come From?” European Journal of Political Research. Mark N. compared to voters. 2004. Henry E and Richard Johnston eds. 1998. Non-voters don’t vote because.168 Richard Jenkins ess. 1993. and Frank Stafford. 1996. place less personal importance on voting and see reasons for not voting.. Available at http://www. Hofmeyr. Many of their supporters were unlikely to show up on election day. While the Conservatives had a slight lead in the polls early in the campaign. “Double Jeopardy and Consumer Commitment” Canadian Journal of Marketing Research. Neil Nevitte. Robert F. “Overreporting Voting: Why it Happens and Why It Matters” Public Opinion Quarterly 65: 22-44. “The Conversion Model: Measuring Consumer Commitment and Potential for Change” paper presented at the American Marketing Association 24th Annual Attitude Research Conference. “Electoral Participation. 13:12-20. it belied a strategic weakness. “Turnout in Electoral Democracies. Volume 43. Elisabeth Gidengil. they have lower opinions about politicians and parties. building commitment to voting would require engaging people in politics as well as changes to the way we conduct politics. Richard G. Decline of Deference. Jan and Butch Rice. Toronto). Iyengar. 1996) Pammett.Voters Lack Commitment: Canada 169 Hofmeyr. Modernization and Postmodernization: Cultural. Richard. Economic. 2000. 35(2).” In Journal of Politics 62: 1014-1034. “Voting Turnout in Canada” in Herman Bakvis ed. 2000. 1996. Williams and Robert Alexander. Jon H. Putnam eds. “A Tale of Two Electorates: Generational Replacement and the Decline of Voting in Presidential Elections. and Political Change in 43 Societies (Princeton: Princeton University Press). Susan and Robert B. (Wiley. .W. Pharr. (2002) “How Campaigns Matter: Priming and Learning as Explanations for Reform’s 1993 Campaign Success” Canadian Journal of Political Science. Lyons. Nevitte. (Royal Commission on Electoral Reform and Party Financing: Toronto). Ronald. 1991. R. Johnston. Disaffected Democracies. Montreal). (Peterborough: Broadview. Neil. (New Jersey: Princeton). 1997. 2000 “Canadian Elections at the Millennium” in Choices (IRPP. pp 33-60. Commitment Led Marketing. Voter Turnout in Canada. Jenkins. 2000. Part 3: The Public Sector in Transition . working hours and health and safety at work. the design of adequate measures. This applies to all stages of the policy-making process: the identification of the problem. Data provided by the statistical offices is often unable to meet all requirements. What would reality look like then? To what extent would it differ from the present situation? What type of political action would be needed to make reality more in line with people’s own wishes and abilities? . In a world which is becoming increasingly complex and where change occurs fast. The article gives examples from employment policy. It also needs solid empirical data which describes the reality of citizens. It addresses topics which are relevant for the proclaimed goal of creating “more and better jobs” in Europe: labourmarket participation. Imagine further that working hours and other working conditions of all those who have a job match with their personal preferences and abilities. 1 Introduction: Challenges for Employment Policy in Europe Imagine that all those who want to be gainfully employed actually have a job. the provision of empirical data which adequately reflects reality is a challenging task. the implementation stage and the final evaluation. Therefore representative sample surveys play an important role in providing policy makers with the necessary information.Developing Employment Policy in Europe Harald Bielenski Abstract Policy making needs a vision of how society should be organised. however. In 2001 the Stockholm European Council added an employment rate target for older people (50%).4 % in 2000 to 70% by 2010 and. The Foundation is an autonomous body of the European Union. According to Commissioner Vladimir Špidla. more specifically. These targets were explicitly related to the position of the European Union in a globalized world. ageing workforce. This article aims to investigate this question by means of representative data. reconciling paid work and family duties etc. Industrialised countries in other parts of the world could. created to assist in the formulation of future policy on social and work-related matters. The article will focus on Europe. however. face similar problems (unemployment.) 2 Data The article mainly draws on three different data bases: (1) The survey “Employment Options for the Future” was conducted in 1998 on behalf of the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions. “progress over recent years towards the Lisbon and Stockholm employment rate targets for 2010 … remains insufficient overall and greater efforts are needed to provide the right impetus for further improvement” (European Commission 2006: 3).1% to more than 60 % by the same year. The Em- . the employment rate for women from 54. One of the interesting questions in this context is whether or not these ambitious political goals are actually in line with what people want for themselves or whether this is something decided by “those in Brussels” in a political context far away from the daily life of European citizens.174 Harald Bielenski At the Lisbon European Council of 2000 the 15 Member States (EU15) which formed the European Union at that time agreed on the strategic goal to raise the overall employment rate from 63. (2) The “Establishment Survey on Working Time and Work-Life Balance (ESWT)” complemented the Employment Options Survey by providing information about the demand side of the labour market. personnel managers and – where available – employee representatives (e.Developing Employment Policy in Europe 175 ployment Options Survey was launched in order to find out more about actual and preferred labour-market participation and about working time arrangements relevant to those in paid work and those likely to enter or re-enter the labour market in the near future. Cyprus. More than 5. In the context of this survey. This survey was carried out in Germany on behalf of the “Bundesanstalt für Arbeitsschutz und Arbeitsmedizin” (Federal Institute for Occupational Safety and Health) within the “New Quality of Work Initiative” (INQA) – a joint activity of German ministries and a number of stakeholders like employers’ organisations and trade unions. Latvia. 2006). In total 30. 2002).g. (3) The survey “Was ist gute Arbeit?” (What is a good job?) aimed at getting a deeper understanding of the quality of work.000 employees were interviewed about the nature of their work. The survey aimed at mapping company policy and practice with regard to various working time arrangements. During autumn 2004 and spring 2005 a large-scale survey among more than 21. This survey provided insight into the supply side of the labour market. chairpersons of the works councils. their working conditions. and about their views of the characteristics of a “good job” (Fuchs 2006). Poland and Slovenia) was conducted on behalf of the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions. Hungary. Results are representative of establishments with 10 or more employees (Riedmann et al. The data is representative of the residential population aged 16 to 64 years in EU15 and in Norway.000 establishments in 21 European countries (EU15 and six of the new member states: the Czech Republic. shop stewards) in the same establishments were interviewed.557 interviews are available for analysis (Bielenski et al. . the employment rate in Europe as a whole would have had to be increased to 74%. dramatic changes are necessary. This means that in 1998. In 1998 the range between the highest and the lowest female employment rate in EU15 was 34 percentage points (see table 1). In other countries. This is still clearly below the Lisbon target and below the employment rates in the United States and Japan (European Commission 2006: 20).176 Harald Bielenski 3 Labour Market Participation The survey “Employment Options for the Future” revealed that in 1998 – two years before the Lisbon European Council – more people would have liked to be in paid work than there were jobs at the time in all countries covered (EU15 and Norway). Italy and Spain the preferences of women of working age imply employment rates that are 20 percentage points or more above the 1998 level. In the meantime progress has been made. Survey results showed that European women would have preferred much less divergence: the gap between the countries with the highest and the lowest preferred female em- .2 %. Europeans were already opting for an employment rate which went beyond the ambitious targets set by the Lisbon European Council of 2000. Greece and Spain had increased by 6 to 15 percentage points by 2005 but are still clearly below the preferred level. In 2005 employment rates in Europe (EU15) have been raised to an overall level of 65. Furthermore. There is also a general trend towards a greater harmonisation of employment rates in Europe. Major progress has been made though: female employment rates in Italy. however. In Greece. This is particularly true for female employment rates in Southern European countries. Female employment rates would have to rise only very moderately. practically all women who prefer to work are in paid employment already. there is still a large gap between the preferences expressed in 1998 and today’s reality. The gap between preferences and reality is much larger for women than for men. Significant changes occurred with regard to female labour-market participation. In countries like Denmark or Norway. According to the preferences. Population Aged 15 – 64. Firstly. What we do not know is whether and – if so – how the preferences have changed over the same period of time. Table 1.4 points Preferred 1998 74% 81% 67% 14 points SE: 84% ES&IT: 59% 25 points Actual 2005 65.6 points Sources: Actual 1998 and 2005: European Commission 2006: 259. there is a relatively high degree of unemployment.2% 51. Actual and Preferred Employment Rates (EU15) Actual 1998 Overall employment rate Male employment rate Female employment rate “Gender gap” Country with highest female rate Country with lowest female rate „Country gap” 61. in all countries there is a variable but significant part of the population which is neither employed nor actively searching a job – mainly women and people between 55 and 64 years.6 percentage points in the EU15 countries. Population Aged 16 – 64. . We cannot say whether the present degree of diversity in labour-market participation is now in line with women’s preferences or whether European women have become more ambitious over the past 10 years and would now desire a higher degree of harmonisation within Europe.6% 19.Developing Employment Policy in Europe 177 ployment rate was only 25 percentage points. Preferred 1998: Bielenski et al. Figures Refer to EU15 and Norway The difference between actual and preferred employment rates is due to two aspects.9% 57.5 points DK: 71. The desired narrowing of the gap was almost achieved in 2005: actual female employment rates differed by 26.3% 26.9% IT: 45. Secondly.2% 72. 2002: 26 f.8% 34.4% 71.4% 15.6 points DK: 70.2% ES: 35. As a result. retirement age is likely to be increased. action is needed to reduce unemployment rates. Consequently. in order to provide adequate public childcare facilities (Anxo et al. This policy resulted in a reduction of the actual retirement age and low employment rates among those aged 55-64 years in many countries (Leber and Wagner 2007). this policy caused problems in the financing of old age pension schemes. In this complex situation. elderly workers and women. In the short term. At a European level the findings of the Working Conditions Surveys also showed that there are problems as far as work sustainability is concerned (ParentThirion et al. The scope of this challenge is shown by recent research in Germany: almost one quarter of the dependent employees say that – from a health perspective – it is unlikely that they will be able to meet the requirements of their present job until normal retirement age (Fuchs 2006: 160). i. 2007: 33). in November 2006 the German government decided to gradually raise the legal retirement age from the current 65 years to 67 years in 2029. research based on representative sample surveys can help policy makers get a better insight into people’s desires and what companies can do. working conditions have to be better adapted to the needs of an ageing workforce (Bellmann et al. For example. 2007a). at least in some of the European countries. For a long period in the past. 2003). Increased labour-market participation of women requires specific policy action. early retirement was considered an appropriate means to reduce unemployment and to open up job opportunities for younger people entering the labour market.e. We will give some examples by having a closer look at working time arrangements. Unemployment is still one of the top political issues people in Europe worry about (TNS Opinion & Social 2007: 43). However. Raising employment rates means providing job opportunities for those parts of the population which stand outside the labour market at present. These problems become more severe as the ageing of the European population progresses. .178 Harald Bielenski The challenge for policy makers is twofold. Employees with very long working hours tended to prefer shorter hours whereas many of those who worked less than 20 hours per week would have preferred to work more hours. Only two out of five employees said that they were happy with their present working time arrangements. One of the reasons for this is that there is still a significant part (around 9%) of full-time employees working extraordinarily long hours (>48 .7 hours (Bielenski et al. Despite a significant increase in the share of part-time jobs. As many as half stated that they would prefer to work less: 33% would like to reduce their weekly working hours by more than 5 hours per week.7 hours per week but on average wanted a reduction of their working time by 3. 34 hours). 28% actual). mainly as a result of the creation of additional part-time jobs for women (European Commission 2006: 40). 16% by 1 to 5 hours. overall average weekly working hours in 2005 were still clearly above the preferred level (36 hours vs. Development since 1998 has partially. very long working times may seem necessary. There are a number of reasons for working very long or very short hours. On the other hand. 2002). If wages are low. but not fully. Employment rates increased. although a significant share of the workforce had such long hours (9% preferred vs. Very short weekly working hours (below 20) were relatively rare.Developing Employment Policy in Europe 179 4 Actual and Preferred Weekly Working Hours The Employment Options Survey of 1998 showed that employees in Europe worked 37. A remarkable minority wanted to have longer weekly working hours (12%). as far as both actual practice and preferences are concerned. been in line with people’s wishes. The overall trend towards slightly shorter weekly working hours is the aggregated effect of a number of quite heterogeneous relations between actual and preferred working times at the individual level. a highearning partner and poor public childcare facilities might make very short working hours attractive for married women with children. Only relatively few employees said that they wanted to work long hours (more than 40 hours). 5 hours in 2005. If we compare actual and preferred working hours in the 16 countries involved in the Employment Options Survey we can see a clear wish for convergence. actual weekly working hours of men and women in EU15 differed by 8.4 hours. The range between the country with the longest actual weekly working hours and the one with the shortest was 7.1 hours if we look at the preferred working hours. Extremely long working hours are not in line with the preferences of the employees. Among women. most of the presently employed women in Europe would prefer a 30-hour-week. actual working hours of men and women still differed by 7. While working hours around the full-time standard are still the predominant working time arrangement for women. They are also counter-productive in a situation of high unemployment and problematic from an occupational health and safety perspective. In the 1998 survey.180 Harald Bielenski hours per week). The 40-hour-week only comes second as far as preferences are concerned. working time preferences are more heterogeneous. If working-time preferences of men and women were realised the gender gap in working hours would become smaller in most of the countries.6 hours on aver- . Their share has even increased slightly since 2000 (European Commission 2006: 45). This trend is true for both female and male employees. closely followed by 35 hours.4 hours in 1998 and as much as 10. In 2005. as was shown above. Men tend to have clear preferences for working hours that cluster around the present full-time standard (between 35 and 40 hours) but a substantial minority of men would also be interested in weekly working hours of between 20 and 34. This means that the differences between the European countries would become smaller if preferences were to become reality. 20 hours and – much less frequently – 25 hours.5 hours while according to the preferences the gender gap would be only 6. But the difference is only 5. Figures Refer to EU15 and Norway age. Recent survey research from Germany confirms that the gender gap in working hours is still larger than it should be according to people’s own preferences (Holst 2007). This would require the availability of adequate childcare facilities among other things.4 h 32.1 h NL: 29.4 h GR: 36.6 h 10.4 h 6. Secondly.0h 36.6 h 181 GR: 40.5 h 5.5 h AU: 41. There are two challenges for policy makers deriving from this finding: firstly. Actual 1998 and Preferred 1998: Bielenski et al. women should be supported in their wishes to fully participate in the labour market.1 h Actual 2005 36. 2002: 44. These results show that if preferences were realised the differences between the working times of men and women in dependent employment would be considerably reduced. not only across Europe as a whole but also within most of the individual countries.6 h NL: 31.8 h 30.7h 41.5 h 31.5 h Sources: Actual 2005: European Commission 2006: 44¸ Figures Refer to EU15. This convergence both within and across countries is one of the most important findings of the Employment Options Survey. men should be encouraged to reduce their working hours by avoiding extremely long working weeks and by switching to part-time jobs during certain periods of their work-life. Actual and Preferred Weekly Working Hours Actual 1998 All dependent employees Men Women “Gender gap” Country with longest hours Country with shortest hours „Country gap” 37.Developing Employment Policy in Europe Table 2. .4 h Preferred 1998 34.1 h NL: 33.7 h 7.9 h 8.9 h 7.0 h 39. only slightly more (39%) did so in response to the wishes of their employees and the remainder indicated both reasons. employers must be persuaded that part-time work is not only feasible but often in the interest of the company itself. 18. In Spain.182 Harald Bielenski 5 Companies’ Experiences with Part-Time Work Part-time work is a widely used working time arrangement in Europe. It is considered a means to reconcile paid work and family duties. On the other hand in many Southern European countries experience of part-time work is not widespread at company level. The remainder – one third of the companies – does not offer part-time jobs (Anxo et al. The ESWT revealed that one third (34%) of the employers introduced part-time work in their companies in order to meet economic or organisational needs. On the other hand many companies make use of the advantages of part-time work. and in Greece and Portugal the share is even lower. 2007b). In 2005. . There is a significant interest in part-time work among the presently employed and among those who would like to (re-)enter the labour market. To raise part-time rates. The share of part-timers has significantly risen in the last decades and it is likely that this trend will continue in the immediate future. Slovenia and Cyprus less than 40 % of the companies (with at least 10 employees) actually employ part-timers. Research showed that part-time work meets employees’ wishes – at least in certain periods of their working life.4% of the employees in EU25 were part-timers (European Commission 2006: 39). There are large differences between the EU Member States. At present only two thirds of the companies (with 10 or more employees) in the 21 European countries included in the Establishment Survey on Working Time (ESWT) have at least one part-timer among their staff. In the Netherlands nearly 90% of the companies have part-time jobs and over half of those companies are “high incidence companies” with a part-time rate of 20% or more. As a result. 2007b). Employee representatives (like shop stewards or works councils) are even more negative in their assessment: 40% report inferior career prospects of part-time staff in their companies (Riedmann et al. men and women who live with a partner. in other words that changing between full-time and part-time is easy to do both ways. One-way shifts. 2006: 25). From the point of view of the employees. This shows a remarkable degree of inflexibility among the majority of the companies. 6 Actual and Preferred Sharing of Work Among Men and Women Living as a Couple So far this paper has examined the actual situation and the preferences of individuals and groups by gender and by country. this form of work would become more attractive – for women as well as for men – if it were easy to switch from full-time work to part-time and vice versa.e.e. Now we want to look at couples.Developing Employment Policy in Europe 183 The ambiguous nature of part-time work – being a means for the improvement of work-life balance on one hand and an organisational tool for employers on the other hand – is reflected by the assessment of various aspects of this work form. the need for part-time work is often confined to certain periods of the life cycle – especially when there are children in the household. In contrast to this positive assessment a significant part (27%) of the managers in companies with part-time work admit that career prospects for part-timers are worse than those of full-timers. only from full-time to part-time or from part-time to full-time are reported more often but are also confined to about one quarter of the European companies with 10 or more employees (Anxo et al. In the ESWT only 9% of the companies reported full reversibility of working time. i. The vast majority of managers (79%) see no difference in the level of motivation between part-time and full-time staff: 11 % even believe that part-timers are more motivated than full-timers. . i. scientific research about labour-market issues very seldom takes this into account. parental leave. voluntary inactivity etc. In real life. g. But the distribution among both partners would have to change dramatically. If we add up the individual working hours of both partners then we can see that couples in Europe (EU15 and Norway) on average spend 62 hours per week in paid work.7 hours). They may reflect differences in actual working time.4 hours more in paid work than the partner who works less or not at all. education/training. is probably due to the gender division of labour. Spain). mutual decision making is the normal situation for the majority of the working population: seven out of ten employed persons share their lives with a male or female partner (Bielenski et al. A large part of the working time differences. the difference in working hours between both partners in a couple was 25. the largest in Ireland (30. the partner who works more hours (mostly the man) on average spends 25. There is a wide range between the countries surveyed.4 hours per week in Europe. 2002: 89). Evidence for this can be found in the relatively small working time differences between partners in the Scandinavian countries – where the traditional breadwinner model is not so dominant – and the relatively large differences in those countries with a strong attachment to the male breadwinner model (Ireland.e. The differences between both partners in a couple are due to a wide range of reasons. In 1998. The Employment Options of the Future Survey offers the possibility for such analyses at a European level (Bielenski et al. retirement. Nevertheless. e.8 hours). Greece. the total time spent for paid work would remain almost unchanged (61 hours). The smallest difference was found in Denmark (13. According to the preferences. i. 2002). . if one partner works full-time and the other one part-time or one of them regularly works overtime. however.184 Harald Bielenski In these cases decisions about labour-market participation and working hours are not usually made on an exclusively individual basis. They may also be due to the fact that one of the partners is not in paid work because of unemployment. Figures Refer to EU15 and Norway. its modernised form (man in full-time/woman in parttime) is preferred by significantly more couples (32%) than actually practised (21%). 16 % declared a preference for it. participation in paid work and working time would still be unequally distributed among both partners. Difference to 100 %: Other Combinations . The share of households with two full-time workers would remain unchanged if preferences were realised (32% actual and preferred). Couples with at Least One of the Partners in Paid Employment. The Sharing of Paid Work Among Both Partners Living Together as a Couple Actual Man employed – woman not employed Man in full-time – woman in part-time Both partners in full-time Both partners in part-time 35% 21% 32% 2% Preferred 15% 35% 32% 16% Source: Bielenski et al. However. 2002: 97. It is true that even if preferences were realised. The preferred modes of distribution confirm the trend towards a more equal distribution of paid work. the average working time difference in Europe would almost be halved from 25. Attachment to the single (male) breadwinner model is weak: It is preferred by only 15% of couples in Europe (but was practiced in 1998 by as many as 35 %). If we compare the actual situation with people’s preferences we find a strong convergence between the involvement in paid work for both men and women.Developing Employment Policy in Europe 185 In all 16 countries there is a preference for a less unequal distribution of working time between men and women living as couples.1 hours per week. Differences would become considerably smaller but would still exist. Although only 2% of two-adult households in Europe practised the combination of two part-time jobs. This division of paid work is particularly attractive in the Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands where experience of part-time work is already widespread.4 hours to 13. Table 3. Conversely. Labour inspectorates have their own records but these are usually confined to the results of the controls made by the occupational health and safety (OSH) authorities. and are increasingly the source of work-related diseases and a lack of well-being in the workplace. heavy physical work) are becoming less important in Europe while psychological and social factors are becoming more and more important. in particular those of a psychosocial nature. These controls are normally concentrated on large companies while there is less regulation among medium-sized and. Interviews among employees – based on representative samples – are a means of improving the knowledge base of working conditions and their evolution over time. Such surveys – like the European Working Conditions Survey (Parent-Thirion 2007) – show that traditional strains related to old industrial workplaces (e. their records do not provide much insight into emerging risks. Instead. increasing workloads. Multi-disciplinary research teams have tried to face the new scientific challenges in this field (e. in particular. Job insecurity. Consequently.186 Harald Bielenski 7 Working Conditions The EU’s health and safety at work strategy for the period 2002 to 2006 no longer focuses “solely” on the prevention of occupational accidents and occupational diseases (Commission of the European Communities 2002). it pursues a comprehensive concept of wellbeing at work which takes a number of factors into account. noise. heat. small companies. Self-assessment of the employees becomes more and more impor- . There is practically no “official” data available that provides a comprehensive view of working conditions of the employed. Furthermore. psychological stress. including the wishes and needs of the working population and the occurrence of new risks.g. Ferrie et al. This is the main reason why the European Agency for Health and Safety at Work (OSHA) has launched a specific research programme to investigate emerging risks. regulatory activities by the labour inspectorates focus mainly on whether existing legislation is respected.g. 1999). strained relations with colleagues and superiors require different measurement methods to traditional work strains. if they have influence on the work process and if there are good social relations in the workplace. Recent research from Germany shows that “good jobs” are not only characterised by the absence of negative working conditions like noise. An adequate income and a certain level of social security are also constitutive elements of a “good job”.e. Employees describe their work as being satisfactory if it provides good possibilities for using and developing their own abilities.g. Noise and heat can be dealt with through technical improvements aimed at avoiding the respective emission. the European VDU Directive (Council Directive 90/270/EEC of 29 May 1990 on the minimum health and safety requirements for work with display screen equipment) came into force and was subsequently implemented in the member states of the European Union. The VDU directive contains relatively few “firm” regulations in the sense that requirements are not precisely defined (e. It is evident that OSH policy needs totally different approaches depending on whether it has to do with old industrial strains or with the new challenges when it comes to improving working conditions in a broad sense. They are increasingly the ones who are responsible for a health supportive design of their workplaces. where visual display units (VDU) are used. Consequently. questionnaire-based measurement methods (such as representative sample surveys) are the adequate instruments for providing an empirical database for identifying new hazards and for evaluating the efficiency of existing regulation in this field. heat or physically heavy work (Fuchs 2006). the adequacy of job challenges. A good example is health and safety in computerised workstations. by equipping workers with adequate protective devices or by reducing exposure times. i. This is much more difficult with regard to the “soft” new strains and the so-called resources – like a high degree of autonomy. All these issues can be objectively measured and compliance with legal regulation can be comparably easily controlled and enforced. In 1990. noise less than x db or weighs to be lifted manually must not exceed y kg). It rather draws .Developing Employment Policy in Europe 187 tant. the quality of social relations etc. In these cases external control must be amended by the workers’ own assessments. The evaluation shows that overall the instruments of the VDU directive are effective. although there are significant differences between small and large companies (BMAS 2007). the same critical comment would have to be made if the excluded area is the one with the most positive situation with regard to the topic to be investigated. Within the framework of an ongoing evaluation of the VDU directive launched by a number of EU member states the main empirical data sources are interviews based on representative samples of companies and of employees. It is understood that an evaluation of regulation at national or at international level requires a solid database. the design of adequate action and the measurement of its outcome. as the following example illustrates: if employers’ views are collected on the basis of a sample restricted to companies with 5 or more employees the evaluation can hardly claim to present a full picture of reality. The full report will be published by the end of 2007 (Riedmann et al. adequate size of the symbols shown on the screen). adjustable keyboards and chairs.g. 8 Conclusion The data from representative surveys provides an important amendment to official statistics for the policy-making process.188 Harald Bielenski the attention of employers (and employees) to a number of facts that should be taken into consideration in order to provide good working conditions and to prevent health risks (e. If knowledge of the existing regulation and compliance with the legal requirements increases with the size of the company then a survey which excludes companies with less than five employees necessarily will give a too positive picture and systematically exclude the most problematic areas. Of course. For a solid evaluation this is not the ideal data basis. This applies to the identification of problems and opportunities. It is not easy to assess compliance with these rules. forthcoming). Policy evaluation . Existing experience shows that there is much room for improvement. First results of the evaluation were presented in June 2007 at the occasion of a conference with the title “More Success through Efficient Regulation”. . BMAS (2007): Research results prove: Occupational health and safety leads to higher productivity and better working conditions. Press release of the German Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. D. H... Fagan..06. Letablier. Perraudin.-T. 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This article describes the data collection process.The School Sport Partnership Programme – Raising Levels of Participation in Physical Education and Sport in Schools in England Susannah Quick Abstract. poor diet. 1 Background In England.000. lack of exercise and obesity have become huge issue in recent years – particularly among children. The Government has launched a number of initiatives to try to improve this situation. lack of exercise and obesity have become huge issues over recent years. In England. TNS was commissioned to undertake research to monitor the success of the Programme and to assess whether or not key Government targets in this area have been achieved. In particular alarming statistics have been quoted about children. These initiatives include the School Sport Partnership Programme. highlights some of the main findings. and describes the role which research has played in helping to bring about improvements in this area. the key challenges it presents and how it has developed over the four years since it started. poor diet. The research is now in its fourth year and involves data collection among all schools involved in the programme – of which there are currently (2006/07) nearly 22. For example among boys and girls aged . as in many other western countries. which aims to increase the level of participation in physical education (PE) and out of hours school sport among children in state schools in England. 192 Susannah Quick 2-15. For example: . Poor facilities and lack of space at schools. Children living in households with the lowest levels of household income have higher rates than those in households with the highest levels of income (Jotangia. These are issues that are not just limited to England. Its prevalence has tripled in many countries in Europe since the 1980s. Stamatakis and Wardle 2006). The lack of physical exercise among some children in England has become a source of concern. together with increasing interest in IT based games for children has resulted in a long term downward trend in levels of physical activity for children. from 11 per cent in 1995 to 19 per cent in 2004 among boys. Moody. It goes on to state that ‘poor diet. a lack of physical activity and the resulting obesity and its associated illnesses are together responsible for as much ill health and premature death as smoking’. In turn this trend has been linked with problems in health (for example diabetes). designed to help tackle these problems from a number of different perspectives. and the numbers of those affected continue to rise at an alarming rate. concerns about the personal safety of children playing outside. For example. behaviour. a high level of focus on the most ‘academic’ subjects (numeracy. achievement and attendance at school. These are very significant issues in English society today. and from 12 per cent in 1995 to 18 per cent in 2004 among girls (Department of Health 2006). In recent years the Government has responded to this growing problem by putting in place a number of different initiatives. literacy). The World Health Organisation cites obesity as ‘one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. in 1994 it was estimated that 46% of children in Years 2–11 (children between the ages of 6 and 16) participated in at least two hours of PE in school each week: by 1999 this had fallen to just 33% (MORI/Sport England 2002). the proportion who were obese increased between 1995 and 2004. particularly among children’. Obesity among children is also linked to social status. and for funding sports coaches. • Investment in community sport via Sport England – for example for building new sports clubs or refurbishing old ones. desire and commitment to continue to improve and achieve in a range of PE. Media and Sport (DCMS) Public Service Agreement Target (PSA)2 was set. sport and health-enhancing physical activities. to enhance the take up of sporting opportunities by 5-16 year olds as follows: ‘Enhance the take-up of sporting opportunities by 5 to 16 year olds so that the percentage of school children in England who spend a minimum of two hours each week on high quality3 PE4 and school 1 2 3 In June 2007 a new Government Department – the Department for Children. Public Service Agreements (PSAs) are key targets which under-pin the Government’s commitment to deliver service improvements. which promotes the idea of eating five portions of fruit and vegetables each day. in line . The scheme is administered through schools and funded by the National Lottery. • The ‘Five a Day’ campaign. together with specified nutritional standards for the meals. A national campaign has been supported by a large number of local initiatives – for example. • Increased funding for school meals. understanding. Schools and Families (DCSF) – was set up. This is particularly important as among those receiving school meals there is an over-representation of children from less affluent families. This scheme gives a free piece of fruit to all 4 to 6 year olds in state-funded schools in England. It is against this backdrop that in 2002 a joint Department for Education and Skills (DfES)1/Department for Culture. From that date it took over responsibility for improving the focus on all aspects of policy affecting children and young people. who receive free school meals. High quality is defined as ‘producing young people with the skills. initiatives in schools etc. cookery clubs.The School Sport Partnership Programme 193 • The School Fruit Programme was introduced in 2004. ’ Learning through PE and Sport – A guide to the PE. School Sport and Club Links strategy brings together eight distinct. The programme is based around ‘families’ of state secondary.’ Longer term – by 2010 – the ambition is to offer all children at least four hours of sport a week made up of: • At least two hours of physical education (PE) and school sport • An additional two – three hours beyond the school day delivered by a range of school. One of these strands is the School Sport Partnership Programme. The national PE. community and club providers. At the heart of the programme is the Partnership Development Manager (PDM) who is responsible for managing the partnership. . and in every primary or special school a Primary Link Teacher (PLT) or Special School Link Teacher (SSLT) who is responsible for leading the strategy at that particular school.194 5 Susannah Quick 6 sport within and beyond the curriculum increases from 25% in 2002 to 75% by 2006 and to 85% by 2008. all aimed at increasing levels of participation in PE and school sport. Staff are funded by the programme which pays for additional teachers to be employed to fill the gaps created by releasing staff from the timetable. strands of work. dance and sport that takes place outside PE lessons but is still organised by the school. School Sport and Club Links Strategy. a total of £1. but interlinked. The 2002 baseline was an estimate of the level of PE and school sport participation in English schools. Over the five year period 2003 – 2008. PE is the programme of study that schools offer in PE lessons. while in every secondary school there is a School Sport Coordinator (SSCo). primary and special schools which have a Specialist Sports College acting as the hub of the family. 4 5 6 with their abilities.5 billion is being invested by the Government in this area. and to at least 75% in each School Sport Partnership by 2008. School sport is physical activity. and these were organized into a total of 449 different Partnerships. There is also a . By 2006/07 almost all state funded schools in England had joined the programme (a total of some 21. the schools. the Government’s National Audit Office has responsibility for checking that the data provided as evidence for the attainment of targets is robust and high quality. DfES and TNS.941 schools). Indeed regular review and feedback from all parties has been central to its success to date. In 2003 TNS was commissioned by the DfES to monitor the success of the School Sport Partnership Programme – and in particular to monitor progress against the Government’s key targets in this area. There have also been other factors which have impacted on the methodology. A typical Partnership comprises some 40 primary schools. 7 secondary schools and perhaps 1 special school. timely data to DfES to allow monitoring of progress • The need to ensure the highest possible response rate to ensure the credibility of the survey and the quality of the data • The need to provide feedback to individual partnerships. starting with just a small number of schools in 2003. This monitoring is now in its fourth year and has proved both a challenging and extremely rewarding project for TNS in the UK. For example. However the core drivers of the methodology have remained the same: • The need to provide high quality. 2 Method The method used for the survey has developed over the four years of its operation in line with the experiences of all parties – the Partnership Development Managers.The School Sport Partnership Programme 195 The programme has been rolled out over a period of four years. to help ensure their co-operation and to enable them to act on the findings. covering the length and breadth of England. as the study progressed. as follows: • Schools Model. PDMs were sent the questionnaires for distribution to Partnership schools and were asked to take responsibility for tracking responses. • PDM Model. In the first three years of the survey TNS offered two different data collection approaches. and ensuring that questionnaires were returned to TNS. These questions covered such issues as: • The time spent by pupils in each year group participating in PE in a typical week • The number of pupils in each year group participating in at least two hours of PE and out of hours school sport in a typical week . which were developed after a pilot phase. which involved TNS sending materials directly to all Partnership schools. However. and in the fourth survey the Schools Model option was dropped. and in the first year of the survey roughly equal numbers of Partnerships chose each of the Models. Under this model. and all Partnerships used the PDM Model. and therefore opted for the PDM Model. By the third year of the survey 92% of Partnerships opted for the PDM model. more and more Partnerships understood the benefits of the survey and wanted to take more responsibility for the study. which involved Partnership Development Managers having a much greater level of responsibility for data collection across their schools. Partnership schools were asked to answer 10 questions regarding pupils’ participation in PE and school sport.196 Susannah Quick separate issue in the Government’s drive to move as much data collection as possible online – which has also been a key objective from TNS’ point of view. bearing in mind the sheer quantity of data to be processed over a short period of time. Partnerships were required to choose one of these Models. In the first survey just 25% of schools submitting their data did so online. The data had to be compiled in detail in individual schools and all Partnership schools were invited to take part. . Different deadlines for online and paper submissions – once the paper deadline had passed only online submissions were accepted 3. However. The development of a website which allowed copies of online submissions to be retrieved and inspected both by the school and the Partnership Development Manager (this facility was not available for paper responses). which were developed and tested over the course of the survey. 1. General encouragement to submit the data online.The School Sport Partnership Programme 197 • The number of pupils in each year group involved in intraschool competitive activities • The number of pupils in each year group who have taken part in inter-school competition • Sports provided by the school • Sports for which the school has links to clubs. Proportion of Responses Received Online This migration to online was achieved through a combination of measures. resulting in a significant migration to online response. which was included in all communication 2. The questions could be answered either on paper or online via a dedicated website. over the period of the first three surveys considerable efforts were made to encourage online response. Prizes for Partnerships achieving 100% an online response from all of their schools 4. and which included: 1. as shown in figure 1: 2003/04 25% 2004/05 42% 2005/06 73% % of responses received online Fig. the research was carried out in two stages. The overall response rate to the project has been extremely impressive. and of those responding just 19% opted for the online approach. 2003/04 Number of schools in Partnerships Number of schools responding Response rate 8. anecdotally it is clear that the use of the different deadlines for online and paper responses had a very significant impact. At any point a PDM can access a website to find out which of his/her Partnerships schools have submitted a response and which have yet to respond. general encouragement to submit the data online had a significant impact on the proportion doing so. This illustrates the power of the simple persuasion and strong promotion of the online data collection route. While we do not have hard data on the separate impacts of the other factors (listed 2 -4 above) which were all introduced for the third year of the research. . At the second stage no such encouragement was given. 2. In the first year of the survey. with the other two factors also contributing to the major move to online. Response Rate Each year the fieldwork takes place during May and June.882 99% Fig.547 81% 11. At the first stage respondents were encouraged in all survey communications to submit the data online and 44% of those responding did so.198 Susannah Quick Interestingly.134 2005/06 17.498 95% 16. reflecting recognition of the importance of the study. and has increased over time.105 2004/05 12. together with the huge reminder and follow-up efforts of the PDMs and TNS.122 6. selected at random. TNS uses a small-scale validation exercise to check responses to a number of the key questions within the survey – and in particular to check those that relate to the Government’s PSA target. Indeed each and every Partnership receives a report which lists the results for each school within that Partnership. In that way the PDM can monitor performance at an individual school level. Over the last three years the proportion of pupils in Partnership schools who have participated in at least two hours of high quality PE and school sport in a typical week has increased steadily over time – up from 62% in 2003/04 to 80% in 2005/06. and target action appropriately. In addition. Registers of attendance.The School Sport Partnership Programme 199 Checking the Information The information generated by the survey is used at a very high level and it is therefore important to check that it is as accurate as possible. Paper questionnaires are manually edited and then computer edited (edits are automatically built-in for the online respondents). This means that the 2006 school sport Public Service Agreement target – to ensure that at least 75% of 5 -16 year olds are spending a minimum of 2 hours each week on PE and sport – has not only been . Furthermore. individual pupils records) to back up the figures that have been submitted. timetables. The validation exercise involves visits to 10% of the partnerships. 3 The Results The results of the study are used both by the DfES and by individual Partnerships. and so it is necessary for quality control to be extremely rigorous. TNS uses three complementary approaches to quality control. figures for each and every school are fed back to the Partnerships. At these visits TNS asks for evidence (eg. probably due to the time it takes for the Partnership to bed in and for good practice to be put in place. 6. Year 5 = aged 9 – 10. Year 11 = aged 15 – 16. Year 7 = aged 11 -12. An analysis of the data by individual year group shows that pupils in Years 5. 3. Year 8 = aged 12 – 13. Year 6 = aged 10 – 11. Percentage of Pupils Who Participated in at Least Two Hours of High Quality PE and Out of Hours School Sport in a Typical Week 7 Year 1 = children aged 5 – 6. Year 10 = aged 14 – 15. Year 9 = aged 13 – 14. .200 Susannah Quick met in Partnership schools. Year 4 = aged 8 – 9. Year 3 = aged 7 – 8. Year 2 = aged 6 – 7. 7 and 87 were the most likely to have participated in at least two hours of PE/school sport. but has been exceeded by five percentage points. while those in the youngest year Fig. These figures were reasonably consistent across the different phases in which the Partnerships were introduced – although the most recently established partnerships tended to have slightly lower levels of participation than did those that had been in existence for several years. although there is still considerable scope for improvement amongst pupils in Years 10 and 11.The School Sport Partnership Programme 201 Fig. and since then there has been considerable effort to try to improve the levels of participation amongst the very youngest and oldest children. . This was highlighted in the first survey. Many Partnerships have focused on increasing the range of sports available to pupils. 4. in an attempt to increase the appeal of sports to traditionally ‘hard to reach’ young people such as some girls. This latter group will become an increasing focus in future years. Percentage of Pupils Who Participated in at Least Two Hours of High Quality PE and Out of Hours School Sport in a Typical Week – Analysed by Year Group groups (Years 1 – 4) and some of the oldest age groups (Years 10 and 11) were the least likely to have participated. This is measured through monitoring the number and types of sports offered by each and every Partnership school. ethnic minorities and those who are perhaps not naturally ‘sporty’. These efforts have brought about considerable improvements in levels of participation for the youngest children. 202 Susannah Quick ’03/04 % ’04/05 % 97 95 93 91 85 85 83 81 74 71 71 66 67 63 39 48 32 27 25 25 20 19 16 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 ’05/06 % 98 96 95 92 89 87 84 81 77 76 74 73 71 67 56 55 35 34 28 29 24 23 17 16 12 10 9 9 7 6 6 Football Dance Gymnastics Athletics Cricket Rounders Swimming Netball Hockey Tennis Rugby union Fitness Outdoors/advent Basketball Multi-skill clubs Orienteering Badminton Cycling Volleyball Table tennis Canoeing Golf Softball Archery Rugby league Mountaineering Sailing Martial arts Boccia Karate Squash 97 94 94 90 85 86 84 84 77 70 67 58 68 65 26 46 31 21 27 26 17 14 16 7 12 7 8 4 5 4 5 Fig. 5. Sports and Activities Provided During the Current Academic Year . The School Sport Partnership Programme ’03/04 % Lacrosse Equestrian Rowing Bowls Judo Boxing Goalball Triathlon Skateboarding Angling Kabaddi 4 3 2 2 8 1 2 1 1 1 * ’04/05 % 4 3 3 3 6 2 2 2 1 1 1 ’05/06 % 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 203 Base: All Schools (2003/04 – 6.574 : 2004/05 – 11. This varied considerably by the individual year group – with again the youngest and oldest children being the least likely to participate.9 in 2004/05 and 14. . canoeing. 5 (Continued) The most recent (2005/06) survey for which results are available revealed that an average of 16 different sports is provided by the average Partnership school – an increase from 14. golf and archery. cycling. To a lesser extent there have also been increases in the availability of other ‘non-traditional’ sports activities such as fitness. The most important increases in availability have been for multi-skill clubs – which are non-traditional clubs which engage children in a variety of different sports activities. The survey monitors the level of participation in both types of activity.5 in 2003/04. orienteering.498 : 2005/6 – 16. Competitive sport – both within a school and where schools compete against each other – are key to helping to develop an enthusiasm for sport and for helping children to achieve at a high level. Overall.882 Fig. the 2005/06 survey showed that 71% of pupils participated in intraschool competitive activities during the academic year (for example class matches and leagues). Fig. this does represent an improvement over time from 33% in 2003/04. at 37% of pupils during the academic year for the most recent survey.204 Susannah Quick In terms of inter-school competition the extent of levels of participation were lower. Percentage of Pupils Involved in Inter-school Competitive Activities During Academic Year . Percentage of Pupils Involved in Intra-school Competitive Activities During Academic Year Fig. 6. However. 7. and have provided sports (eg. Schools have achieved the participation improvements through increases in both curriculum PE and through school sport. some schools have gained access to facilities in other schools or in other organizations. There have. there have also been increases in the levels of participation in non-curriculum school sport. profile raising and encouragement. however. However. which have been achieved through a combination of innovation. They were invited to attend a 10 – week ‘taster’ programme of acitivities such as aerobics. Firstly. For example. it has provided the DfES with regular and reliable information to check what progress is being made. Other schools have particularly targeted ‘hard to reach’ groups. Kabaddi) or facilities (eg. Aged 14 – 15) who lacked confidence in PE and did not attend any school sport activities at lunchtime or after school. such as those from ethnic minority backgrounds. targeting. The TNS survey has played in crucial role in helping to bring about these changes. Another example is a school that targeted girls in particular age groups (eg. making it difficult for PDMs to monitor closely what is happening in each school. or have worked with specialists to promote a particular sport. Some Partnerships Development Managers are responsible for as many as sixty or seventy widely dispersed schools. at a local level.The School Sport Partnership Programme 205 4 Concluding Remarks Over the period of the School Sport Partnership Programme huge progress has been made in terms of levels of participation in schools. to try to regenerate their interest in sport. Activity sessions for girls only) which are particularly attractive to these sectors of the community. been other impacts as well. yoga and boxercise. it has provided Partnership Development Managers with a tool to check what is happening in individual schools. and for them then to target activity as necessary. and to enthuse pupils. although the main driver has been an increase in the amount of curriculum PE. Secondly. This has been achieved through re-focusing the curriculum timetable and giving a greater priority to PE than had previously been the case. The sur- . Health Survey for England. and awards (Sportsmark and Activemark) are given to Partnerships and schools which achieve high levels of PE and sports participation. MORI/Sport England 2002. References Department of Health 2006. School Sport and Club Links Strategy. DfES/DCMS 2002. The very high response rate achieved is testament to the regard with which it is now held – and to the considerable efforts of Partnership Development Managers. World Health Organisation 2007. it has shown schools that PE and School Sport is an important issue. . Thirdly. Indeed over the last three years a culture of healthy competition between Partnerships has been fostered to achieve high response rates. Jotangia. The challenge of obesity in the WHO European Region and the strategies for response. Young people and sport in England.206 Susannah Quick vey has provided them with a mechanism to help do this. based on the survey data. which needs to move up the educational agenda. Moody. the Youth Sports Trust. DfES. Obesity among children under 11. trends in participation 1994 – 2002. The publication of the results for individual Partnerships is eagerly anticipated. schools and TNS in making it the success that it is today. Learning through PE and Sport – A guide to the PE. with most aspiring to 100% completion for their particular Partnership. Stamatakis and Wardle 2006. It is concluded that the core service elements should be focused on and. 1 Introduction Welfare services provided to the general population are the responsibility of state. While the population is highly satisfied with the living standards of their community. In a situation where regular market mechanisms of supply and demand do not work. communication should be used more directly as a way of adjusting people’s expectations. they are at the same time highly critical of their municipality as service provider. This situation raises a number of challenges when it comes to the assessment of service coverage.Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case Ole Ugland Abstract. county. Services are usually financed by general taxes or user fees. This chapter focuses on the challenge of providing citizens with relevant. quality and efficiency: • How can service needs best be targeted? • How can services be designed to meet citizen requirements? • How can services be provided in an efficient manner? . alternative tools have to be sought. timely and state of the art public services. Systematic analysis of client satisfaction with public services in Norway across the two last decades is such a tool and it reveals distinct patterns in people’s preferences and assessments. and municipal authorities in Norway. at the same time. It also involves political management. flexibility and efficiency of service delivery (NOU 2000: 22. their relevance. Examples of this trend are recent efforts within publicsector administration to establish service quality indicators and service declarations. An “expectancy gap” is emerging on the horizon: How can public services meet the demands of an increasingly affluent population at the same time as public sector budgets are facing significant stress? In this chapter we will shed some light on these issues with examples from recent TNS Gallup research in the field of social services in Norway. An anticipated increase in people’s expectations and demand for services must be focused on in a situation where average private wealth is steadily increasing. partly influenced by the debate on “corporate reputation” in the private sector (Rolland 2005). 2 Client Satisfaction and Public Policy Design A characteristic feature of public services is the fact that they are designed in a non-market situation. quality. expectations and demands on public services are likely to increase as well. In particular. The same goes for an increasing focus on clientsatisfaction surveys (Riksrevisjonen 2006). Hence. focus is increasingly directed towards client satisfaction in the design and assessment of public services. as individuals with customer rights and this is presenting public administration with increasing challenges regarding information. At the same time.208 Ole Ugland With increasing private wealth. volume and quality typically cannot be assessed by market demand. Other experts point to the fact that public administration is more than just provision of services. the chapter will focus on public sector service clients and how their needs and assessments can be actively used in meeting the current challenges facing public-policy planning in periods of economic and social transition. and citizens are actively involved in the processes of produc- . Citizens want to be seen as clients. 61 and 89). Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 209 ing these services (Aars 2000). expectations are likely to vary between the various types of services used. Individual assessments are summarised for each service. statements by municipal officers. Let us take a closer look at the assessment of service quality. and scores are transposed to an aggregate satisfaction score ranging from 0 (total dissatisfaction) to 100 (total satisfaction). Client Satisfaction Illustrated Client assessments are based on individual experiences seen in relation to individual expectations.= Satisfaction Experiences Fig. media reports. client assessments include elements of political expression and serve as an important corrective element in modern democracies. 1. Moreover. reputation etc. number of staff etc. The evaluation itself is fairly simple: representative samples of municipality inhabitants rate their local community and its various attributes along an evaluation scale ranging from 1 (very dissatisfied) to 6 (very satisfied). Expectations ----------------. Hence. subjective quality assessments provide supplementary information to conventional and regular production indicators such as volume. As a result. Some services involve public supervision/control in addition to providing actual ser- . or service aspect. Typically. Service quality can be assessed by the users and their personal perception and evaluation. rumours. Such an assessment may in some instances run counter to other more “objective conditions” in the service production system. The interpretation is somewhat more intricate. services involving client and needs assessment (social support) will be rated differently from “pure” services such as libraries. Expectations are influenced by previous experiences. expenses. benchmarking of services in general. At the same time.1 1 The survey actually combines a cross-national reference survey (15. Hence. What kinds of services should be publicly provided? How can services be organised more effectively? First of all. an unconditional comparison of client-based assessments among the wide variety of municipal services is not straight forward. Nevertheless. Public services are typically faced with demographic imbalances and a shortage of labour. citizens and mass media still tend to neglect these structural factors and expect a great deal from the public sector. However. may give valuable insight into current service delivery strains. The national survey provides estimates at county level but the . Are we faced with an increasing “expectancy gap”. conducted on behalf of the Central authorities) with local surveys conducted in various municipalities (each one usually surveying 1. we must realise that the public sector has its limitations compared to the private sector. The surveys map people’s general assessments and personal experiences among users of the various services (or as family members of such users).210 Ole Ugland vices to the population. where booming private wealth confronts a public sector with stagnating public resources available to bridge it? 3 Satisfaction with Public Services in Decline? TNS Gallup has surveyed client satisfaction with regard to social services among the Norwegian population since the early 1980s.000-2.000 inhabitants. limited room for change due to strict regulations by central authorities. as well as their various service components. conducted on behalf of the respective municipality).000 respondents. we must be aware of the challenges we are faced with in terms of meeting client expectations. a shortage of resources to back up local reforms and a general lack of money. These findings should not come as a surprise. Moreover. The same applies to variations sample is not large enough to allow analysis at the level of each of the 352 municipalities. Population 16 Years and Older. enterprise structure etc. Per Cent Most citizens are highly satisfied with their municipality as a place to stay and live. 2. and allows each municipality to benchmark municipality services with ratings at the national and municipal level. Most people also have a strong feeling of attachment to their municipality (score 67). Feeling of Attachment to and Well-Being in the Municipality. Satisfaction with Municipality as a “Place to Live”. the national survey serves as benchmark for municipalities wishing to conduct their own survey. . urban/rural location. A majority of the inhabitants express outright satisfaction with their municipality’s living standards (score 69) as well as with their own well-being (score 74). variations among the 19 Norwegian counties are modest (from 67 to 71). Hence. as illustrated in figure 2. It should be anticipated that people living in a country rated by the UNDP as having the highest quality of life in the world (UNDP 2006) would be generally satisfied.Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 40 35 30 Per cent of population 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 Very dissatisfied 2 3 4 Satisfaction score 5 6 Very satisfied 211 DK/NA Satisfaction Attachment Well-being Fig. with municipalities of similar population size. At the same time. Hence. we have asked them to rate a number of indicators of living conditions in their municipality. The largest variations are seen in relation to the inhabitant’s age: the youngest people demonstrate lower levels of satisfaction with their municipality (score 66) than their older companions (score 75). coverage of social and health institutions etc. more than half is “highly satisfied” with 8 conditions. coverage of institutions for old aged people (score 45). cultural activities. the overall modest satisfaction with the social services does not necessarily reflect people’s experiences with every service. The lowest satisfaction scores are given for the municipality’s facilitation of private enterprise establishments (score 44). cinema/concert/theatre activities. . This rating is in line with people’s assessment of public transport facilities. 24 are positively rated by more than half of the population. appearance of buildings in the municipality centre as well as the coverage of domestic services for elderly people.212 Ole Ugland according to municipality size and industrial structure. Among the 30 different living conditions listed. Among the best-rated conditions we find “the scenery and the possibility of spending leisure time outdoors” (score 90). The next question is: is Norway really as well run as this overall picture indicates? In order to gain a more accurate picture of people’s assessments. “neighbourhood safety” (score 83). “child-friendliness of the local neighbourhood” (score 76) as well as “the selection of shops and goods” (score 74). local transport (score 47) and the municipality tax rate (score 47). they are at the same time highly critical of the local service providers! Again. environmental qualities. such as neighbourhood safety. People’s general assessment of “public services available to the community” is rated in the middle of the overall living standards satisfaction index (score 56). we are faced with a potential paradox: while people are generally satisfied with their living standards. Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 213 SOCIAL SERVICES CLIENT SATISFACTION INDEX 2004 2003 2000 78 71 71 66 70 69 64 63 61 59 57 57 59 55 55 50 47 55 53 29 25 32 24 33 23 26 32 34 38 33 23 30 19 25 25 27 30 21 23 19 20 24 29 26 47 51 44 48 38 43 43 37 34 28 33 39 33 41 34 31 27 23 33 32 22 21 23 25 27 28 27 25 28 25 28 23 18 18 22 21 # of users SERVICE * Kindergarten * Physiotherapists * Library CLIENT SATISFACTION DISTRIBUTION 3 5 5 6 26 5 5 5 7 6 7 6 9 5 8 5 10 3 11 5 11 5 11 6 11 5 12 8 8 11 13 14 18 2004 3158 7018 667 6429 13712 11206 1081 3632 3821 4938 3595 3201 3847 14152 1432 5874 1005 1239 1441 411 1956 1641 1491 1284 1041 4164 1344 13159 13886 4754 14036 244 1253 2872 13488 13933 381 13859 411 704 Old age institutions Cinema * Drinking water * Doctor Music-cultural school * Theatre Museum * Concert * Health centres * Elementary school (Level 1) l *l Arts exhibitions * Waste disposal Cultural office 7 14 ISport 13 10 Agricultural office 15 11 Home nursing 10 14 Day care (Level 2) 13 11 Housing for elderly daytime * Elementary school (Level 2) 8 15 * Nursery 15 14 * Leisure time 11 18 17 16 Care for elderly 17 14 Psychological centres for pupils * Tax register 14 17 14 18 Social office * Public information 11 23 * Main roads (summer) 15 19 * Swimming pool 21 16 * Main roads (winter) 17 20 26 15 Mentally institutions 28 13 Council office * Technical office 26 17 * Local roads (summer) 24 22 24 23 Roads. Assessment of Services 2004/05. 3.in general 33 12 Children care institution * Local roads (winter) 30 22 32 20 Business office * Social office 37 17 81 78 78 76 76 76 74 73 73 72 71 71 71 70 69 66 66 66 66 65 65 64 63 61 61 60 59 58 57 57 57 56 55 51 51 50 49 49 47 47 44 (79) (79) (79) (77) (76) (75) (76) (74) (72) (72) (70) (73) (70) (70) (66) (66) (65) (68) (63) (66) (63) (64) (62) (62) (57) (59) (60) (58) (55) (55) (58) (52) (49) (55) (51) (46) (46) (46) (41) (51) (48) [79] [77] [76] [75] [72] [72] [70] [73] [69] [70] [67] [69] [69] [68] [66] [61] [62] [65] [64] [65] [61] [61] [62] [58] [58] [52] [57] [54] [56] [57] [56] [56] [49] [52] [48] [49] [49] [49] [46] [49] [47] 5+6 (Very satisfied) 4 3 1+2 (Very dissatisfied) AVERAGE INDEX (services marked by *) National average 66 Fig. Per Cent and Average Satisfaction Score . recreation centres for elderly people. cinemas and drinking water (above score 75).9 61. The columns to the far right display the corresponding index scores for years 2000.9 55.9 54 56 56. On top of the ranking. Are people’s ratings simply influenced by current economic or political fluctuations. At the bottom end we find social offices.6 56. An immediate question raised in this regard is whether we are faced with a temporary situation.8 57. and with Public Services at Large. People’s attitudes to social services thus vary just as much as people’s ratings of their community living standards.1 56.8 55. and would therefore change overnight with new realities? 100 90 Average satisfaction score 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 19 01 0/ 20 03 2/ 00 2 05 4/ 00 2 61. Average Satisfaction Score . where the two top and bottom scores are collapsed.214 Ole Ugland Asking people to assess 40 different municipal services reveals that this is clearly not the case.2 58.4 59. entrepreneurial offices. libraries.3 56.6 60.4 57. The left-hand column in figure 3 reveals the number of users/respondents assessing each service.5 58. Popular Satisfaction with Municipal Services. 2003 and 2004. 4. we find kindergartens. physiotherapists.3 57.9 59. and general road conditions (below score 50).8 56.4 56.1 57. The horizontal bars display the distribution along the 1-6 point assessment scale. 1992-2004/05. as illustrated in figure 3.3 Year Municipality services Public services Fig.7 56. but generally critical of the municipality – 15%). but where public administration is not automatically credited for this. slightly more pronounced. but steadily. The image is revealed by a municipality TRI*M stakeholder-survey conducted among the general Norwegian population in 2005.Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 215 Examination of people’s satisfaction with the public services across the last decade reveals that this is not the case (figure 4). leaving them at the same level in 2005. The TRI*M index is a one number index of client satisfaction and client commitment.3 2 3 The basic difference between the two indicators is that the first one rates all public services available in the municipality (including services administered the by the municipality and at state levels). Only half of the population feels that municipal services fulfil their expectations. satisfaction is slowly. declining from an average satisfaction score of 59 in 1992 to a score of 56 in 2005. while the rating of the overall public services appears as one indicator among the wider set of municipality living-standards indicators. and only three in ten express commitment to their municipality as service provider. trend (down from score 61 in 1992 to 56 in 2005).2 The above analysis indicates a situation where people are generally satisfied with their living standards. It may also be noted that the gap between the two ratings seen in the early 1990s. In fact. today’s local administration is typically faced with a quite bad image. gradually closes throughout the decade. the rating of municipality services is measured by a separate question. Looking at a similar indicator – people’s satisfaction with their municipal services – demonstrates the same. Also. Putting the various images together (figure 5) reveals that the large majority of inhabitants are actually “detached” (both dissatisfied and non-committed to the municipality as service provider – 79%). the latter one targets services administered by the local authorities only. based on the four elements of overall performance satis- . while very few are “drivers” (highly satisfied and loyal to the municipality – 5%). Also the proportion of “residents” is rather small (satisfied with regard to their own experiences. Contrary to expectations. Some services are provided for all.4 Highly detached 32% %base 869 %base 897 (Weighted) Detached 73% Fig. should be targeted and how? Social services vary by their user frequency. . maintenance and roads benefit 80-100% of the population. Who. An index score of 23 is fairly low. N=869) 4 Facing the Challenge The question. is how resources should be invested with the aim of improving public satisfaction with the social services. On the other hand. faction. 5. both with regard to the type of services provided as well as with the characteristics of the population using them. rating of current services in relation to personal expectations and comparative assessment of one’s own community’s performance in relation to neighbouring municipalities. of course. entrepreneurial services. services provided for people with mental illness. and are used by practically everyone: drinking water. Municipality Image 2005 (TRI*M Typology. trust in the local administration as service provider. or what.216 Ole Ugland TRI*M Index 23 Satisfaction Drivers 8% Involved drivers 3% Resistance 73% x 10 Loyalty Residents 17% Critics 2% 8% x 3 = 30. social institutions for children and housing for old aged people are used by only 2-3%. compared for example with the average performance of Norwegian private companies (Index scores 50 to 70). „Upper middle”= 1012 services. while at the same time generate the most highly satisfied clients (score 71). Examination of the highest and lowest ratings of the municipality. and the need to take care of both children as well as parents implies frequent contact with public authorities. Cinemas. Percentage. on the other hand. „Low”= 1-3 services. regardless of sector and service components. 6.4 Hence. User Frequency of Social Services in the Last 12 Months. „Middle”= 7-9 services. there is no direct relationship between client satisfaction and user frequency. 4 The population is divided into categories of varying user frequency as follows: „Non-user”= No services. user frequencies intensify towards “middle age” and then decline towards “old age”. reveals the following characteristics: Firstly. are generally associated with low ratings (score 61) despite being visited by six out of ten inhabitants. Senior centres are among the least frequently used (7% of the population). At this stage people tend to “settle” and start family life. „Lowermiddle”= 4-6 services. . user frequency tends to vary with people’s position along the life cycle: the need for social services is at its peak during the “establishment phase” (35-49 years).Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 100% 90% 80% Per cent of inhabitants 217 6 6 18 6 23 24 14 12 19 3 16 26 32 22 16 18 27 31 35 38 28 29 17 6 8 3 40-44 Age 14 5 4 45-49 24 24 34 15 9 11 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 15-19 18 53 27 33 28 24 45 26 9 9 20-24 10 25-29 28 31 12 16 2 50-54 11 6 55-59 12 60-64 16 65+ 30 11 5 2 30-34 10 5 35-39 None-user Very few Few Average Many Very many Fig. „High”= 13 or more services. 16 Years and Older Typically. the availability of cultural activities for youngsters. one of the services showing the most satisfied clients. followed by the well-being of children in kindergartens. Secondary focus is directed at the “hygienics” or “opportunities” fields (upper left. we find a wide variety of characteristics. Examining first the kindergartens case. comparing assessments among inhabitants who have actually used the various services reveals that they are more satisfied than the non-users (who base their judgement on their general image of the service). the indoor environment of elementary schools etc. In the large majority of cases (29 in 34 services). The highest importance is assigned by the “motivators” (strong effect on overall performance and high importance as stated by the users) in the upper right quadrant. users are more satisfied than the non-users. neighbourhood safety etc. The differences are actually quite striking. and in the range of 10-15 points. and lower right quadrants). overall satisfaction does not always imply unanimous satisfaction. the general availability of such institutions. Staff competence and staff continuity are the . This study allows us to go into depth with two types of services to gain a better impression of their critical satisfaction drivers. The image thus reveals four strategic focal points for the municipality in the delivery of services. The contrast is striking when it comes to the rating of waiting lists for admission to institutions for old aged people. (scores 81-83). the general access to shops and goods. Among the top ratings.218 Ole Ugland Secondly. the way kindergarten staff care for the children. no outstanding strengths (black square boxes) are revealed. the importance of this component as stated by the user him/herself (vertically) as well as the institution’s service performance (service satisfaction illustrated by black and white symbols). The scenery and recreation facilities are still the most popular aspects of the municipality. Thirdly. The figure combines three general assessments: the impact of each service component on the overall satisfaction with this service (horizontally). Let us briefly return to the stakeholder survey presented above. Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 219 TRI*M Index 23 High Kindergarten A01 A02 A03 A04 A05 A06 A07 A08 A09 A10 Kindergarten coverage in municipality Possibility of flexible opening hours Maximum tariffs are introduced Number of children per employee Indoor climate (air / ventilation) The pedagogical standard Infrastructural standard (in-door areas) Outdoor safety Staff skills Continuity of staffing Hygiene factors Motivators Stated importance A05 A08 A10 A09 A06 A01 A04 A07 A02 A03 Low Potentials?/Savings? Low Hidden opportunities High %base 869 %base 897 (Vektet) Effect on overall satisfaction Performance Far above average Above average Average Below average Far below average TRI*M Index 23 High Public transport C01 Bus/train/tram arrives on time C02 Timimg is adjusted to your needs C03 Time tables are available at public stops/ busses/at the Internet C04 Fare is not too high C05 The driver is smiling and friendly C06 You will get a seat C07 You are convinced that the driver has received proper training C08 Inrastructure is clean and in proper condition C09 You are informed in case of delays or cancellations C10 Different transport facilities correspond Hygiene factors Motivators Stated importance C10 C07 C03 C09 C04 C01 C08 C02 C05 C06 Low Potential?/Savings? Low Hidden opportunities High %base 869 %base 897 (Weighted) Effect on overall satisfaction Performance Far above average Above average Average Below average Far below average Fig. 7. Drivers of Popular Satisfaction with Kindergarten and Public Transport Services . information provided to clients. The outstanding performance seen with regard to the driver’s competence should be maintained in future activities. communication skills etc. Looking at services that are universally available. Clients are generally less satisfied with waiting time. Returning to our general findings. and are. in some instances.220 Ole Ugland Turning to public transport. and that satisfaction is especially high among clients aged 67 years and older. the possibility to have their say during treatment. people aged 35-49 years old are the least satisfied – this is also the age when user intensity is at its peak. also less satisfied with the infrastructural quality. This implies that people of 50 years and older are usually also more satisfied than the average population when it comes to the various service components. a service with many dissatisfied clients. satisfaction again increases with the age of the client. strengths and weaknesses are clearly revealed. we have seen that each service is assessed by the quality of various general performance indicators: service availability. as well as general customer relations. . although not decisive to overall satisfaction. Most clients of social services are highly satisfied with staff skills (score 60-70). staff competence and customer relations. The same goes for their efforts when it comes to attentiveness and respectfulness. The same goes for information regarding transport delays and the fare cost. Moreover. Sector staff is usually the central element in the provision of personal services. The most vital component to this service is punctuality – and satisfaction in this regard is in fact quite high. infrastructure quality. availability of timetables at bus-stops and trust in the driver’s competence are rated as vital. Finally. Correspondence between the various transport facilities. in some instances. some potential for cost-saving is revealed: the driver’s general attitude and the availability of seats are not seen as being of vital importance and are not the major satisfaction motivators in this service. 7 49.1 54.1 55.5 65 59.9 49.9 59. and with Public Services 1992-2004/05.8 55 56. Projected Satisfaction 2005-2015. Popular Satisfaction with Municipal Services. people constantly bring future expectations into consideration in their evaluations.5 60 58. Average Satisfaction Score (the Vertical Scale Is Condensed to Highlight Variation) 5 The prediction is based on a simple linear projection.2 57. the trend across the last two decades is prolonged towards 2020.9 58. we have seen a small but systematic decline in the overall rating of municipal services during the last decades. Nevertheless.4 56. Let us finally make a straight forward prediction of what might be the future satisfaction level of social services.9 56 55.Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 221 5 Future Directions It is hard to predict the future. Firstly.3 54 53.1 48.9 61.8 54.9 53.6 60.1 Average satisfaction score 55.6 53.9 53.3 51. What does this development tell us about future trends? As an illustration.5 50.7 56.6 57. and reveal what people themselves think about the future of their own community.3 45 40 93 92 94 96 97 98 20 0/ 20 01 02 /0 3 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 95 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 99 Year Municipality servicesr Public services Fig. 8. where the average yearly change in the period 1992-2005 is used to forecast annual yearly changes in the period 2005-2020.3 53.3 57.7 56.4 56.7 55.5 54.8 56.4 61.5 54.8 57.4 56.7 55.1 50 52.2 53.2 55. .3 56 55. While satisfaction with municipal services demonstrates a steeper decline than the rating of public services taken together during the 1990s. Satisfaction with municipal services ends up at score 48 in 2015. and to assess the future development of their municipality. Thirdly. while the above projection is based on a mathematical model. people were also asked to look 2-3 years ahead themselves. or a slight levelling off. doctors and physiotherapists are provided by a mixture of public and private suppliers. Also regional variations between the various types of communities become more apparent: in particular the assessment of the population development and job creation initiatives is low in smaller and rural municipalities (scores 33-39).222 Ole Ugland Simple linear extrapolation of current trends projects a continuation. Municipal services are faced with a potential 10 percentage-point overall satisfaction decline across two decades. which services are most suitable for privatisation? In a local municipality study of Ålesund. Examination of service providers reveals that people typically turn to private dentists. Based on these experiences. of the declining satisfaction trend. The population is split in two when it comes to the overall satisfaction with municipal development at large (score 53). Kindergartens. by the end of the next decade the two lines might have crossed. and to state-run elementary schools and institutions for the elderly. the role of the private sector as service provider has to be scrutinized. unless the recent rise in 2004-05 indicates a turning tide! Secondly. we are faced with a further decline of 7 and 3 points respectively. Assessments vary by topic. users of private suppliers are more satisfied than users of public services (5-10 index points). but higher than the assessment of local job creation potentials (score 44). The rate is slightly lower than the assessment of the local population development (score 56). In general. inhabitants were confronted with a list of 15 services and were asked to assess for which of these . while satisfaction with public services stops at score 53. In other words. and other public institutions). component and organisational surroundings. The slight decline in the overall satisfaction with public services observed across the last decade corresponds with a similar decline for most single services. responsiveness to client demands. Finally.Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 223 they would like to be served by a private supplier – assuming that privatisation does not imply price increase. such as institutional care. If the declining satisfaction reflected decreasing service quality. home nursing and food distribution. For example. privatisation is seen as a “very good idea” for one single service only – cleaning (of schools. personal experiences with this same service. the impact of a negative newspaper article may depend on the service client’s personality. road maintenance. etc. Some clients will have a more gen- . rather than declining service quality as such. However. except three. general attitude and opinion on the service field etc. Again. a major question raised is whether we are witnessing declining satisfaction or rising expectations. These elements also work in combination. Clients and inhabitants differ to a large extent with regard to their background and experience. prefer public institutions when it comes to mapping services. Some elements cannot be explicitly regulated or controlled. The largest decline is seen for services to the elderly. the various drivers of client satisfaction discussed initially should be kept in mind. This goes for all services except for cinemas and caretakers. a majority of inhabitants find these as privatisation opportune. however. Most people. water/sewage and the running of old age institutions. Service environments differ both with regard to service type. Generally speaking. such as customer relations. maintenance/garbage collection and sporting arenas. support in favour of privatisation is on the decline in this community across the past decade. respectfulness during treatment. A general implication is that the decline reflects an overall rise in popular demands and thus increasing service dissatisfaction. Other services seen as suitable for privatisation are kindergartens. variations between different kinds of services would probably have been more prominent. For all services. High and unrealistic expectations will lead to dissatisfied clients at any level of service quality. Kommunenes Sentralforbund og Norsk gallup institutt (In Norwegian). Summarising findings across municipalities. municipal officials may “adjust” popular expectations to take into account actual limitations in the delivery of a particular service. Through dialogue. information and clearly defined service criteria. Jostein (1994) Å lytte til innbyggerne og brukerne. expectations among users of public services may be adjusted to current realities and practical limitations (budget constraints). . Martin. Hence. indicates a significant communications gap. Efforts to improve municipal services should always focus on the core service elements. Adjusting people’s expectations may be just as efficient in increasing popular satisfaction as pouring resources into improving the service as such. • The different ratings between users and non-users of public services.224 Ole Ugland eral positive attitude than others. service types and components. information. three factors seemingly play a crucial role as driving forces of popular satisfaction: • High consent with regard to the core service elements is crucial to overall consent. service declarations etc. Raising overall public awareness about the higher satisfaction among service users than among non-users. revealed above as variations among the oldest and youngest inhabitants. may raise overall public satisfaction. B & Ryssevik. References Dræge. public information may be crucial: by dialogue. • Users of public services typically base their judgement on factors other than the actual encounter with the service provider: media reports and rumours as well as the user’s own mood and personality will influence public opinion in the encounter with the service provider. Forskning. Norges Offentlige Utredninger nr. Jacob (2000) Brukerundersøkelser som demokrativerktøy. Asle (2005). (In Norwegian). OUP.10. Veileder. Mimeo 09. Rolland. (In Norwegian). (In Norwegian). Brukertilfredshet i offentlig sektor. Mimeo. Kommunenes Sentralforbund.Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case 225 KRD (2001) Styringsinformasjon i kommunene: Kobling av informasjon om brukertilfredshet og KOSTRA-nøkkeltall. region og kommune. 22 (In Norwegian). Statistics Norway number 2005/32. Riksrevisjonen (2006). UNDP (2005) Human Development Report 2005.og Regionaldepartementet. Oslo. Mimeo. Gjennomføring av brukerundersøkelseer i forvaltningsrevisjonen. . Håndbok Kommunal. NOU (2000) Om oppgavefordelingen mellom stat. Aars. 2006 (In Norwegian). Part 4: Asia on the Move . and India. The discussion throws light on the crucial role played by social research in the process starting with identification of needs to facilitate designing of programme interventions. Sri Lanka and the Philippines in particular.V. improvement in human development indicators and growth of the economy. aims at providing a perspective of the transition that has been experienced in the Asian countries in terms of socio economic. World Bank. 1 Introduction Asia’s immensities are not confined only to its population size and geographical area. The analysis presented in the article clearly indicates the transition that took place in the Asian countries in terms of reduced population growth. It also illustrates the significant role social research has played in the process of transition with specific reference to India. reduced infant and child mortality levels. The flowering of global science and technology since the European .The Role of Social Research in Development Programs: Examples from India U. This article. based on data from secondary sources such as DFID. IFAD et al. Indonesia. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji Abstract. but also encompass Asia’s role in world history. the second most populous country and the largest democracy in the World. evaluation at the end of the specific interventions etc. UN agencies. increased longevity of males as well as females. monitoring the progress during the course of implementation. demographic and human development indicators for the Asian countries in general. World Bank. Sri Lanka and the Philippines in particular. This article is based on data from secondary sources such as DFID. Indonesia. 2 Transition in Asia Asia now constitutes one-third of the world economy. it was impacted by international interactions. ADB). ensure peace and stability. The pace of economic progress has been much faster in Asia than elsewhere in the World in the last few decades. and India. and win the war against infectious diseases (UNCC 2007).” (Haruhiko Kuroda. IFAD et al.230 U. many of which originated far away from the Europe. competitive and healthy workforce has enabled Asia to compete effectively in the global market place: People in the developing Asia no longer just aspire to development – they expect it. UN agencies. President. Asia represents the world’s best hope for meeting the MDGs. The article also takes up a few case studies to illustrate the significant role social research has played in the process of transition in the Asian countries with specific reference to India. There is a recognition that Asia increasingly plays a central role on the international stage: as an economic driving force. Not surprisingly countries have been learning from each other and correspondingly adjusting their respective economic policies. . and quite often in the Asia. An increasingly educated. with increasing resources to save and spend. and seen the rapid rise of a middle class. and as a key partner in global efforts to address climate change. The prime objective of this article is to provide a perspective of the transition that has been experienced in the Asian countries in terms of socio economic and demographic indicators for the Asian countries in general. It has witnessed the expansion of cities and towns.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji Enlightenment is not an exclusively West-led phenomenon. which in the 1950s averaged a mere 41 years had by 2004 risen by 25 years. It has implications for the environment.6 percentage points in the population growth rate During the period 1950–2004.4 per woman in 2004. The salient changes involved in this transition include: • Reduction in the infant mortality rate by over two-thirds.000 live births and an increase in life expectancy at birth by 25 years • Decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) by more than half. from 184 infant deaths to 51 per 1. from around six children per woman to 2. mortality declined sharply in most Asian countries and this preceded the fertility decline by several decades in many cases. 24 in the South East and 23 years in South Asia. In India. no Asian country had a life expectancy of more than 75 years and only a few equalled or exceeded 60 years. Asia has witnessed a dramatic demographic transition affecting the population growth rate. life expectancy for males as well as females more than doubled in the 53 years from 1947 to the turn of the twenty first century – a rise that represents the greatest single improvement in the conditions of life in modern India. despite a steady fall in mortality over the preceding decades. In the 1960s.6 • Decrease of 0. Indian women were still having an average of around six births. In 1950. the total fertility rate in Asia has dropped sharply from 6 children in the 1950s to 2. schooling. with a regional breakdown of 28 years in East Asia. Life expectancy at birth in the region.000 during the early 1950s to 8 per 1. the position of women and social security. The crude death rate (CDR) dropped by two third from around 24 per 1.000 in 2004 (Hussain et al.The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 231 Demographic Transition From 1950 and onwards. . 2006). deaths and births. With a delay following the downward trend in mortality. 232 U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji Almost all countries have experienced a decline but the extent of decline, its time pattern and the current rates vary greatly across countries and inter regional differences within some countries, such as India can be as large as those between the countries. While mortality decline affects all age groups, a decline in fertility initially affects the number of children only and thus has a major Table 1. Population Indicators Indonesia Population (Millions) 1990 2004 2020 Annual Population Growth Rate 1990-2004 2004-2020 Life Expectancy at Birth (Years) 1990 2004 Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births) 1990 2004 Under Five Mortality Rate 1990 2004 Total Fertility Rate 1990 2004 3.1 2.3 4.3 3.1 3.8 2.9 2.5 1.9 91 28 62 34 123 85 32 14 60 30 41 26 80 62 26 12 62 67 66 71 59 63 71 74 1.4 1.0 2.1 1.5 1.7 1.3 0.9 1.0 178.2 217.6 255.9 61.1 81.6 103.3 849.5 1079.7 1332.0 17.0 19.4 22.9 Philippines India Sri Lanka The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 233 impact on the age structure of the population. Mortality decline is preceded and accompanied by increase in child immunisation coverage and decline in child malnutrition (UNICEF 2005). Economic Transition The economic growth in the four Asian countries in terms of GDP presented in Table 2 indicates rapid growth of GDP in India during 1990-99. The GDP growth rate was higher during 2000-2004 for all the 4 countries except Sri Lanka. Available data also highlights the growing role played by the private sector in infrastructure development in telecommunications. There has also been significant improvement in infrastructure in terms of telephone and mobile users, personal computers users and Internet users (World Bank 2006). Table 2. GDP Growth Rate GDP Growth Rate (% per annum) Country GNP Per Capita (USD) 1999 450 820 580 1020 1965-79 3.6 4.0 7.0 5.7 1980-89 5.8 4.2 6.1 1.0 1990-99 6.1 5.3 4.7 3.2 India Sri Lanka Indonesia Philippines Poverty Reduction About 1.2 billion people in the world are estimated to consume less than a ‘standard’ dollar a day and are therefore in ‘dollar poverty’. Although the share of Asia and the Pacific Region in the world’s total poor declined by 8.6 percentage points between 1987 and 1998, this region still accounts for roughly two third of the total poor. Using the headcount ratio, about two fifth of the population in South 234 U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji Table 3. Proportion Below Poverty Line Country Indonesia Philippines India Sri Lanka 1990 21 20 42 4 2003 7 14 31 1 Table 4. Prevalence of Rural and Urban Poverty Country/Year Rural Indonesia, 1987 Indonesia, 1990 Indonesia, 1996 Philippines, 1961 Philippines, 1988 Philippines, 1994 Philippines, 1997 India, 1957-58 India, 1977-78 India, 1987-88 India, 1990-91 India, 1994-95 India, 1995-96 India, 1997 Sri Lanka, 1985-86 Sri Lanka, 1990-91 Sri Lanka, 1985-86 Sri Lanka, 1990-91 16.4 14.3 12.3 64.0 53.0 53.1 51.2 55.2 50.6 38.9 36.4 34.2 35.4 34.2 45.5 38.1 31.7 24.4 Poverty Headcount Index Urban 20.1 16.8 9.7 51.0 23.0 28.0 22.5 47.8 40.5 35.6 32.8 28.4 27.3 27.9 26.8 28.4 16.4 18.3 Rural-Urban Ratio 0.81 0.85 1.27 1.25 2.30 1.90 2.28 1.15 1.25 1.09 1.11 1.20 1.30 1.23 1.70 1.34 1.93 1.33 The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 235 Asia were under the poverty line in 1998, and the incidence of poverty in East Asia and the Pacific was much lower at 15.3% including China, and 11.3% excluding China (World Bank 2006). The Millennium Development Goal 1 aims at halving, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 day. This is moving in the right direction. Table 3 indicates a significant decline in poverty in Indonesia and moderate decline in rest of the countries during 1990-2003. About 75% of the world’s poor work and live in rural areas, and projections suggest that this will still be the case for over 60% of the poor in 2025 (IFAD 2002). Poverty is also basically a rural problem in Asia and the Pacific Region, as it is disproportionately concentrated in the rural areas and between 80 and 90% of the poor are rural in all the major countries of the region. Table 5. Human Development Indicators Country Indonesia Philippines India Sri Lanka 1990 2002 1990 2002 1990 2002 1990 2002 Youth (15-24 years) Literacy Rate - Male - Female Unemployment (%) - Male - Female Access to improved (%) Water source Sanitation 71 46 78 52 87 54 85 73 68 12 86 30 68 70 78 91 3.5 4.5 8.1 12.9 7.9 9.9 9.4 10.3 4.4 4.1 10.1 19.9 6.2 14.7 99 93 99 98 97 97 94 96 73 54 84 68 96 94 95 96 236 U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji As indicated by the data presented in table 4, poverty declined in rural as well as urban areas of all the four countries but invariably, rural areas recorded higher levels of poverty than urban areas. Human Development Indicators Indonesia, Philippines and Sri Lanka have almost universal literacy among male as well as female youth. On the other hand, India experienced significant improvement of male and female youth literacy. As regards employment, growing unemployment is a concern, while contribution of service sector for male and female employment is on rise, which is a good sign (World Bank 2006). Access to basic services such as water and sanitation helps in improving the quality of life and health status of the people and access to these services improved in almost all the four countries though India has a long way to go in view of the rural –urban differentials. 3 Role of Social Research in India Research has been an integral part of the family planning/welfare programme in India for decades, as it will be demonstrated in the following. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS – Demographic Health Survey (DHS) in rest of the World) provides time series data on health, morbidity, mortality, contraception, infant and child mortality, malnutrition, ante natal care, child immunisation etc. at national as well as state/province level. The NFHS, funded by USAID, UNFPA, UNICEF and other agencies, provided the necessary inputs for planning, designing and improving maternal and child health programmes and family welfare programmes. NFHS-1, 2 and 3 carried out during 1992-93, 1998-99 and 20052006 across all the states and union territories of India, provide state specific estimates of socio economic, health, nutrition and demographic indicators, such as: On the basis of . standard of living etc. region of the state. natal and post natal care practices • Knowledge and use of family planning methods • Treatment seeking practices (eg diarrhoea. NFHS-3. gender. TNS India’s Social Research Unit (SRU) was actively involved in all the three rounds of NFHS. implementing and refining specific interventions/programmes aimed at better health and nutrition status of the women and children. residence. 2 and 3 specifically provided inputs for designing. as the estimates available now are based on sentinel surveillance carried out at ante natal clinics and Sexually Transmitted Infection (STI) clinics. acute respiratory infections etc among children) • Child feeding practices • Knowledge about HIV/AIDS The NFHS also provides differentials in indicators by gender.The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 237 • Infant mortality rate • Child mortality • Under five mortality rate • Maternal mortality rate • Age at marriage • Morbidity levels among children and adults • Malnutrition and Anaemia levels among women and children (on the basis of height and weight measurement and hemoglobin test) • Ante natal. for the first time provides HIV prevalence among adult men and women and this data is expected to provide inputs for strengthening the National AIDS Control Programme (NACP) implemented for effective control of HIV/AIDS in India. NFHS-1. social class. with focus on the disadvantaged sections of the society. for each Indian state. policy makers. maternal health. child survival etc. Government departments at various levels. The District Level Household Survey (DLHS) and Facility Survey findings are used for effective implementation of the RCH programme at district level. The results are disseminated among donor agencies. social marketing organizations such as Population Services International (PSI). family planning methods. ante natal care components. provided the inputs for effective implementation of the RCH programme in various Indian states. use of family planning. research community. These reports form the basis for funds allocation and programme initiation by the Union and State governments (through the Planning Commission) as well as the multi lateral and bilateral donor agencies. The DLHS carried out as part of the RCH programme in India.).V. specific communication strategies and Information Education and Communication (IEC) programmes were designed and implemented in various Indian states. natal and post natal care and child care. In view of the low levels of use of spacing methods of contraception. funded by the World Bank. The existing programmes were refined to make them more effective. with specific interventions pertaining to child immunization. Hindustan Latex etc designed and implemented interventions to make the spacing methods popular among the couples.238 U. On the basis of results pertaining to ante natal. As the National Family Health Survey provides state level estimates. NGOs etc. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji the results relating to knowledge on various aspects (such as diarrhoea management. HIV/AIDS etc. specific programmes were designed and implemented to achieve the goals stipulated in the National Health Policy and National Population Policy. need was felt to provide district level estimates and District level RCH (Reproductive and Child Health programme) Household and Facility surveys were carried out in all the districts of India. . using a mix of qualitative and quantitative research techniques.Integrated Child Development Services. facilitated impact assessment of the project. quantitative in nature. Parivar Seva Sanstha etc.commissioned by social marketing organisations such as Population Services International (PSI). The urban RCH programmes implemented in many urban areas including the urban slums were conceived on the basis of the DLHS results. Hindustan latex. TNS India was involved in the household as well as facility surveys. growth monitoring etc. Research carried to aid effective implementation of the Social Marketing programmes aimed at popularizing spacing methods of contraception and ORS. the World’s largest programme in terms of coverage with services such as pre school education. the monitoring exercise. Andhra Pradesh Urban Slum Health Project (APUSHP) is one such urban RCH projects implemented in 192 slums across 72 towns of Andhra Pradesh.Oral Rehydration Salt. Child Development The specific areas pertaining to child development covered by social research include Operations Research studies and Mid term as well as Endline Assessment studies on ICDS. nutrition supplementation. The research studies carried out by TNS India as part of APUSHP include one year monitoring study and the endline survey. . This research led to increase in use of spacing methods as well as ORS. While the baseline and endline surveys.The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 239 The facility survey provides the status in terms of infrastructure and human resources and this data proved to be useful for addressing problems relating to these aspects so that RCH programmes became efficient and more people friendly. health education. provided feedback for mid course actions to make the project more focused towards achieving its goals and plan specific strategies to ensure behaviour change such as refined IEC and Behaviour Change Communication Strategies. a South Indian state. needs special mention. and WHO proved to be vital for making the programme initiatives successful. as part of the World Bank funded ICDS project had several research components such as a diagnostic study to identify the gaps. The pre-post intervention design with the help of baseline and endline survey was used to assess the impact of the interventions implemented in the areas of work routine and organisation. These programmes were funded by the World Bank. formulation and implementation of interventions to bridge the gaps and baseline and endline surveys. Operations research studies on new born care practices at household as well as health facility level carried out by TNS for Johns Hopkins University and Care proved to be immensely useful for designing and implementing specific interventions aimed at reduction of infant and child mortality through improving the health and nutrition status of the new born. neo natal mortality etc. strategies and systems/procedures for project implementation to make the project more efficient and useful for the young children. infrastructure at schools.240 U. ILO. school attendance by students as well as teachers. attitudes towards education. with the studies commissioned by UNICEF. joint coordination and MIS (Management Information System). UNICEF et al. SIDA.V. Ministry of Human Resources Development/Government of India et al. Human Development The specific areas covered by the TNS India include literacy. supervision. The studies conducted by TNS India on child immunisation. primary education. non formal education. Pulse polio programme. child labour etc. teaching. for prestigious clients such as Path. UNICEF. The Operations Research study carried out by TNS India in Andhra Pradesh. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji The research findings facilitated mid course corrections in the approaches. short term monitoring visits to assess the progress of the interventions etc. a South Indian state. . Foundations supported by Software corporate houses (Azim Premji Foundation and Byrraju Foundation). learning. World Bank. monitoring studies. This becomes important in view of the Millennium Development Goal 1.The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 241 Poverty Alleviation Programmes The contribution of social research in the area of poverty reduction in India is demonstrated by the specific studies carried out by TNS India for the Ministry of Rural Development of the Union Government as well as the state governments as part of the poverty alleviation programmes funded by the Government of India. Research Triangle Institute (RTI). which aims at reduction of poverty. Water and Sanitation The KAP (knowledge. attitude and practice) studies. This time series data helps in assessing the impact of the interventions implemented in rural areas. and concurrent evaluation carried out by TNS India for UNICEF. with the financial support from the World Bank. These studies provide the voice of the people who represent the intended beneficiaries of the various poverty alleviation initiatives and thus facilitate mid course corrective action to ensure that the benefits reach the poorest of the poor. aimed at improving water quality and access to potable water sources. communication strategy development studies. The studies carried out by TNS India in three Indian states (Andhra Pradesh. UNDP et al. to selected village local governments across the country on the basis of the verification and recommendations provided by the study conducted by TNS India at the behest of the Ministry of Rural Development. known as “Nirmal Gram Puraskar”. . Department of Drinking Water Supply et al contributed immensely for making the water and sanitation initiatives more effective and useful for the beneficiaries. Ministry of Rural Development. The Government of India gives a prestigious award. Maharashtra and Orissa) in pre and post monsoon periods/seasons for two consecutive years provide the information on child health and water quality. Delhi etc for USAID. including STI (Sexually Transmitted Infection) incidence and treatment seeking practices. slum youth et al. The Knowledge. truck drivers. female sex workers. The Behavioural Surveillance Survey (BSS) plays an important role in HIV/AIDS prevention due to the fact that the time series data on sexual behaviour generated through repeat waves helps in tracking the changes in behaviour as a result of the interventions implemented. attitude and behaviour indicators. The BSS has so far been carried out by TNS India in some of the high prevalent states such as Andhra Pradesh. Attitude and Practice (KAP) study on HIV/AIDS in Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan.V.242 U. The BSS provides (time series) data on knowledge. For instance differentials in use of condom with . Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji 4 Case Study – Contribution of Research in HIV/AIDS Control in India HIV/AIDS is fast emerging as a major public health problem in India and social research contributed in a major way in shaping the HIV/AIDS control programmes at national as well as state level. Specific details of some of the important studies conducted by TNS India are provided in the following. men having sex with men. useful for designing programmes for awareness creation among the target groups. DFID. Some of these studies covered high risk population groups such as female sex workers. college students. blood donors. BSS enables assessment of impact of the targeted interventions implemented among the high risk groups (eg. provided KAP indicators with ruralurban and gender differentials.) Most often BSS provides the inputs for designing new interventions or refining the ongoing interventions. truck drivers et al. CARE and State AIDS Control Societies. Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu and other states such as Gujarat. male clients of female sex workers. The BSS also provides evidence for the differentials in impact of the interventions by target group and district so as to address the specific issues. injecting drug users. analysis of the data on differentials in STI treatment practices among brothel based and street based sex workers provides basis for chalking out relevant strategies for ensuring proper treatment practices among the sex workers community. men having sex with men.The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 243 regular. Similarly. The study provided the differentials in risk behaviour by type of prison (central.) and type of inmates (convicts. of the prisons for scaling up the intervention programmes as part of the DFID funded Partnership for Sexual Health Programme (PSHP). . injecting drug users et al. clients of female sex workers. open. The Integrated Behavioural and Biological Assessment (IBBA) carried out by TNS India in two of the HIV/AIDS high prevalent Indian states provides the behavioural as well as biological indicators including HIV prevalence among the high risk population sub groups such as female sex workers. long term and short term under trials etc). district. commercial and non-commercial partners help in formulating strategies for condom promotion to ensure consistent use of condom irrespective type of sex partner. The study carried out in prisons across the state of Andhra Pradesh by TNS India to understand the high risk behaviour of the prisons inmates and prison staff facilitated the prioritization. sub. Thus this facilitates prioritization of the locations for implementing new target interventions or scaling up of the existing ones. The prime purpose of the IBBA was to assess the impact of the target interventions implemented among these target groups through repeated waves of the survey. The mapping studies carried out in different Indian states by TNS India enable the HIV/AIDS Control programme managers to decide about the geographical areas to be covered for the target interventions for each of the high risk groups by providing data in terms of geographic locations and estimated size at each location. on the basis of high risk behaviour. women etc. and India. Sri Lanka and the Philippines in particular in terms of : • Fertility reduction • Mortality reduction • Improvement in child immunisation • Decline in child malnutrition • Increase in longevity of people • Decline in population growth rate • Improved access to basic services such as safe drinking water and sanitation • Improved male and female literacy levels • Decline in income poverty • Growth of GDP • Increasing role played by the service sector in providing employment • Increased access to technology through telephone/mobile and internet connectivity and personal computers • Increasing role played by the private sector in infrastructure development There is ample evidence for the significant and decisive role played by the social research studies carried out by TNS India’s Social Research Unit besides other research agencies/institutes on behalf of various donor agencies and Government Departments in the transition process.244 U. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji 5 Conclusions The results discussed in the preceding sections highlight the rapid transition that took place in most of the Asian countries in general. Indonesia. .V. demographic. there are over 70 distinct Socio Cultural Regions in the country and each is truly different from the other on demographic. East West Center UNCC 2007. Family Planning Programs in Asia : Approaching a Half Century of Effort in Asia Pacific Population Research Abstracts. Social research in India represents the “Voice of People” cutting across issues pertaining to socio economic. April 1996. World Development Indicators Tsui AO 1996. The State of the World’s Children. social research plays a crucial role as the issues that need to be addressed and strategies that need to be worked out vary from state to state and even within a state. In view of this diversity across India. ADB. Asia 2015 Conference IFAD 2002. national studies covering many of the Indian states with a robust scientific research design hold the key for improving the status leading to transition. and development sectors. The World Bank Hussain A. Ending Poverty Conference Report. The absence of reliable official statistics (with the decadal census being an exception) makes the role of social research in a democratic country like India more important so as to get an understanding of the status and issues during the inter censual period. Demographic Transition in Asia and Its Consequences. References DFID 2006. socio-economic and cultural characteristics. Assessment of Rural Poverty – Asia and the Pacific The World Bank 2006. inhabited by more than one billion people with rich socio economic and cultural diversity. Cassen R and Dyson Tim 2006. In fact. Asian Immensities Key Note Address by Prof Amartya Sen UNICEF 2005.The Role of Social Research in Development Programs 245 In a country like India. Asia 2015 Promoting Growth. health. Childhood Under Threat . Number 8. is included as an example of how TNS was able to deliver insight and clear direction in an otherwise complex environment. TRI*M. The social assessment framework put forward is based on TNS stakeholder management model.A Framework for Social Development Assessment Daniel Lindgren and John Budd Abstract. The Millennium Development Goals have opened up a two way street between donors and beneficiaries and has provided for a need to look at social development assessment from a new perspective. In the private sector it is an area which falls under marketing. The chapter concludes with a reflection of what the future holds and the opportunity to apply the framework in other countries as well as for different situations. The two basic components of the model. This chapter presents a new model of thinking for evaluating social development work. where the model was used for the first time. 1 The Behavioural Change Challenge Behavioural change is probably the single most difficult objective communicators are asked to undertake. A client perspective is also provided both in terms of needs assessment and actions taken by UNICEF as a result. are explained. challenges faced during the process. and a vision for how the model will be used in the future. and focuses on the critical area of how aid and donor organizations can assess the effectiveness of social development programs. and in the context of development . The reader is taken through a journey of how the model came about. the Program Effectiveness Index and the TRI*M Grid for understanding program drivers. A case study covering the Tsunami relief effort in Aceh. 248 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd it could also be called social marketing. and could be reported to donors around the world. But such research is often narrowly focused and too often a one-way street. Countries at all levels of development undertake mass awareness campaigns in order to influence behaviours. It is the same in the development context. But then again. . most work that TNS and other international research agencies carry out is with large aid and donor organizations or through consultancies servicing these clients in a broader context. Nor is behavioural change communication confined to the developing world. UNICEF stumbled into this accidentally when ensuring that efforts in the reconstruction of tsunami ravaged Aceh were effective and being well received by the beneficiaries. So the question is. 2 An Idea Was Formed Looking at the social research scene in Indonesia. Polling through media remains under developed or is served by local agencies on a much smaller scale. Consumer research is called KAP surveys – knowledge. Impact studies are conducted but mainly to inform communicators about the effectiveness of their specific campaigns and messages. Having successfully conducted research in 2004-2005 and then in 2005-2006. How beneficiaries regard the campaign and the issue as a whole and what they think is beneficial or even needed in the broader context of the services provided is often overlooked. as does the private sector. The same applies to government work and means revenue streams from these alternative sources remains very limited. it was decided to apply the same framework to assess public awareness campaigns UNICEF was conducting on avian influenza in 2006-2007. attitude and practice. In Indonesia. In the private sector a huge research industry has developed to provide consumer insights and answers about behaviours. how can we use the beneficiary’s perceptions of the effectiveness of a campaign in order for it to be more effective? In other words start a dialogue – make the beneficiary an active participant in the process. large and small.A Framework for Social Development Assessment 249 Indonesia. who are often tucked away in the bush somewhere without access to modest. Having met with many program staff across an array of different organizations it is amazing to see their commitment to their work. At the end of the day it would often be unfair to question their commitment to the cause. or even basic. Key Performance Indicators or KPIs is a term with which aid organizations are quickly becoming more familiar. often limited. social development projects have a research component for evaluation. But more often than expected perhaps. Their inspiration stems from caring about people in need and because they themselves believe a difference can be made. like investors. some. As with any commercial operator aid organizations often have to compete for this. receive a large proportion of their funding for specific projects. Aid organizations in particular. Not to mention the field operators. There is a tender process and the aid organization has to present a strong case for their project in terms of how it will contribute to the betterment for beneficiaries as well as how results will be evaluated. pool of funds. presents plenty of work opportunities for donor organizations. Audits are part of daily life in commercial operations (Scharioth. but donors want proof of their work in terms of measurable outcomes. conveniences. one of the main challenges that is evident is the need for good program evaluations. Yes. Huber 2003). Hence. Aid organizations are slowly beginning to realize that even the warm and . Working closely with several of the world’s most prominent aid and donor agencies. Donors. the auditors are coming and everyone is scrambling to come up with a good story to show that their contribution was indeed worth while. But anyone dealing with large aid organizations will be aware of the frantic atmosphere in the client’s office at the end of a large project. the world’s largest archipelago as well as the most populous Muslim nation. would reasonable like to know that the money was well spent. Ideally there should be a baseline measure followed by an impact measure. the evaluation is conducted internally in sometimes very ambiguous and arbitrary circumstances. but far from all. From a research perspective. somehow. it is very complex often involving multiple organizations seeking to assist beneficiaries from impoverished. How true it is and perhaps one could argue that common sense also dictates this. The question was whether appraisal of social development work can be viewed as a stakeholder management problem? Secondly. But it has also been said that common sense is not common. It has been said that what is not measured cannot be managed. 3 Developing a Social Assessment Framework Stakeholder Management is an area of expertise within TNS and those working in this field have a number of models and tools to their disposal. In the case of social development work what one has to remember is that these are no ordinary projects. The framework should help to identify specific focal points that can help aid and donor organizations to achieve enhanced results. the following benefits were seen to be relevant: .250 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd fuzzy world of social development is becoming subject to accountability. difficult to reach regions under adverse circumstances. measurement becomes a daunting task both in terms of sampling as well as developing suitable survey instruments. From a client perspective. the attractiveness really lies in its flexibility and being able to strike a cord with clients in the most varied of circumstances. the vision was clear. At the outset of developing the social assessment framework. Pallas 2004). Scharioth. No doubt many resist this but there seems to be no escape. No. would it be possible to apply one of TNS’s more popular models called TRI*M? The power of the TRI*M model is not so much in it’s statistical rigor. nor the fact that it has been subjected to numerous validations across all sorts of markets and industries (Huber. Still. the area of social development research seemed like a tough challenge but still possible. Understanding ones corporate reputation provides for a holistic picture of how different stakeholder groups view an organization as well as how the company should align its resources to communicate more effectively (Hermann 2007). This was necessary to ensure the framework can be adopted in a local as well as global context. the truth is that many aid and donor organizations are not able to effectively measure the performance of social development programs. and ultimately have people behave is such a way that it benefits the company. Within the area of corporate reputation.A Framework for Social Development Assessment 251 • To have the ability to map stakeholder needs geographically • To focus on specific beneficiaries or stakeholder groups. 2006). • Provide for a consistent format across: Time. communities/ regions. It is all about building awareness. changing attitudes. participating organizations • Accessible & easily comparable understanding to facilitate learning and dissemination of results • Build pro-active thinking in the form of a red-flag or early warning mechanism • High level insight for strategy development down to specific task related information for program management But how is social development work related to corporate reputation? As has been pointed out. Pirner. programs. the social assessment framework itself must adhere to some basic guidelines. effective tools have been developed over the years to allow organizations to becoming more knowledgeable about their own industry (O’Gorman. The same . in a more relevant way • To be able to prioritize program initiatives and activities • To assess the deployment of resources & effort • To benchmark performance across activity areas In order to deliver on those benefits. The table below shows the original TRI*M index dimensions for corporate reputation together with the modified dimensions for program effectiveness. Looking at the stakeholders themselves beneficiaries are at the core.252 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd applies to social development work. The idea behind the index is to capture the relevant elements that help to determine perceived effectiveness of a social development program. Whether in a commercial or social context. A collaborative effort is currently in place to inform the public in Indonesia about its risks. It is sometimes necessary to develop peoples’ mind-sets by changing their attitudes. how to avoid contracting the virus. The relevance behind each of the index dimensions can be highlighted with a simple example. media spending can be substantial and media channels employed can be similar. First of all. And just as corporate reputation is dependent on several stakeholder groups. Just a like a mining company wants people to be forgiving towards its impact on the environment. Communication is not about selling a product or service but rather to inform and educate as an end goal (selling ideas). and how to prevent it from spreading further. a social development program on AIDS wants people to acknowledge there are people who live with this decease and they should not be ignored. are . social change is about engagement through participation rather than persuasion. Ultimately and ideally. social development programs rely on support from multiple parties often including various government departments. But the ultimate goal of a social development program is not to build a reputation for the organization behind the program but rather for the program itself. 4 Program Effectiveness Index The first basic building block of the social assessment framework is the Program Effectiveness Index (PEI). The Avian Influenza that first appeared in Indonesia in early 2006 has been subject to a lot of attention globally. rather than customers. which in most part is about making people aware and changing the way they think and behave. So. geographical areas. there needs to be a link to behavioural change through effective engagement. a tool which is becoming more and more essential for global companies including aid and donor organisations. stakeholder groups. and time. This allows for effective benchmarking. independently measured PEI has an important advantage in that it can be used across countries and programs. Secondly. are people emotionally engaged? In other words. do they support the program and do they feel that what is being communicated is relevant and make sense? Finally. all working to combat the threat of a possible pandemic. TRI*M Index Dimensions Corporate Reputation Overall reputation Emotional Appeal Favourability towards the organization Trust in the organization Competence Program Effectiveness Extent of effort behind the program Emotional engagement Favourability towards the program Trust in what is being communicated Effective engagement 253 Financial or economic success Success of the program to convince people to take action Products & service quality Quality of program communication people aware and do they see a concerted effort behind the Avian Influenza program? This does not only involve UNICEF and the government of Indonesia but several other organisations. the PEI allows for flexibility in terms of diagnosing the level of performance across time. . Further. is there a sense that the Avian Influenza program is working in terms of changing behaviour and is communication of good quality? Having a standardised.A Framework for Social Development Assessment Table 1. So it is a very effective monitoring tool and provides for a quick overview of where a particular program is working and where it is having less impact. family members or both (UN Information Management Service 2005). Too much money brings out the worst in people and means the relief effort has in many parts been brought down on its knees with very little progress. UNICEF has a fair challenge in coordinating its own activities. having excess funds only adds to the problem. water & sanitation and child protection.254 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd 5 Case Study – Aceh Tsunami Relief The 2004 Tsunami disaster was an event that captured the attention of the entire globe. Yet.256 people were displaced. Amongst other organizations operating in Aceh and Nias. The amount of donations contributed from the international community was so significant that it far exceeded what is needed for the reconstruction effort. education. the traumatized region is still struggling to get back on its feet. Indonesia had the biggest death toll with some quarter of a million people confirmed dead or missing.6 magnitude earthquake on the island of Nias. The brief from UNICEF was simple. the first opportunity to test the new social assessment framework had materialized. The table below shows some of the worse hit regions. Having so many organizations operating simultaneously adds to the complexity and coordination alone has become a gigantic task. especially in the first 12 months (TNS Indonesia 2006). whilst moving in the right direction. Focusing on the areas of health. UNICEF is playing a key role in the rebuilding of the disaster struck area. that struck shortly after the Tsunami made matters worse. No less than 385. was not moving ahead quickly enough. Research carried out by TNS in 2005 confirmed the notion that the relief effort. This may seem odd but the fact is. one of the world’s most notorious nations for corruption. The 8. The disaster was met by unprecedented support from the international community and it has been estimated that some 200 organizations set up base in Aceh alone to assist in the relief effort. loosing their home. . especially in Indonesia. Feedback from beneficiaries was therefore needed to understand their perceptions as to how effective the relief effort has been. what are the red button issues that IDPs want to see improved immediately? With this brief. 306 19. had significantly better performance ratings. some of the most badly hit remote regions. In contrast. attitude and behaviour to see how developed their mind-set was in order to cope and improve their livelihood. .279 11. IDPs in this area have had relatively easy access to assistance without having to rely on their own efforts. This logic became evident when looking at the extent to which IDPs have developed a mind-set that was coherent with the program objectives outlined by UNICEF. to survive.893 174. when sharing the results with UNICEF staff in the respective regions said they were not surprised.944 19. Tsunami Figures in Indonesia Regions hit by Tsunami Aceh Besar Nias Aceh Barat Aceh Jaya Banda Aceh Pidie Nias Selatan Total Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) 45. more remote regions have had relatively limited resources to begin with and meant that IDPs and their local communities had to put in significant effort to rebuild their lives. had the worst performance ratings whereas Aceh Barat and Aceh Jaya. Whilst the devastation was large. This led to IDPs becoming somewhat complacent. In short. Banda Aceh as the capital of the province has served as a hub for much of the relief effort.137 22. The index showed that the more easily reached regions. many parts of Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar were unaffected and meant IDPs were not totally stranded.A Framework for Social Development Assessment Table 2. Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar. an examination was done in relation to IDPs knowledge. However.269 30.307 25.135 255 The performance effectiveness index was able to show that performance varied across regions. the TRI*M Grid. The first two dimensions . In addition to the PEI. by making a distinction between must have factors and those that truly drive program performance. This brings us to the second part of the social assessment framework. Apart from understanding performance across regions. UNICEF wanted to understand what activities were actually driving program performance. In other words. Performance Effectiveness Index Figure 1 clearly shows that IDPs in Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar had a much less developed mind-set compared to Aceh Barat and Aceh Jaya. etc) are independently measured. communication channels. there was a very strong association between program performance and the actual ability of IDPs to cope and improve their livelihood. In order to uncover the more important attributes in the minds of beneficiaries.256 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd 100 Performance Effectiveness Index 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Aceh Barat Aceh Jaya Nias Selatan Nias Pidie Banda Aceh Aceh Besar 71 68 47 42 41 41 40 Mind-set of IDPs Developed Developing or polarized Underdeveloped Fig. The Grid used for this analysis has three dimensions as shown in the diagram below. one need to go beyond what is simply stated as being important. 1. program activities.g. a number of specific performance attributes (e. The position of the attributes on the Grid helps to understand the relevance of each activity in the minds of IDPs. 3. Hidden Opportunities represent activities that can make a difference even though the IDPs themselves don’t regard them as overly important. there will always be relatively important and relatively unimportant aspects to consider. there will always be relative strengths and relative weaknesses. The third dimension looks at the impact each attribute has on the PEI. 2. Hygienic. Motivators. As such. Hygienic First dimension 257 Motivators Stated Importance Second dimension Third dimension Potentials?/ Savers? Hidden Opportunities Impact on Program Effectiveness Index Performance Far above average Above average Average Below average Far below average Fig. Stated importance of attributes Importance on a given attribute is defined on the basis of how important it is rated in relation to all other attributes.A Framework for Social Development Assessment 1. 2. Strong correlation means the attribute will have relatively more impact on perceived performance as a whole. As such. Hidden Opportunities and Potential/Savers). are activities that IDPs expect to see and could relate to basic survival needs. Based on the three dimensions in the Grid. . Perceived performance on each attribute Performance on a given attribute is defined on the basis of how it is rated in relation to all other attributes assessed in the questionnaire. Hygienic. on the other hand.e. attributes can be classified into four groups depending on their location within the Grid (i. the Potential/Savers quadrant highlights activities that according to IDPs are at the bottom of the priority list. The position on the Grid determines the relevance of each attribute. Impact that attributes have on the PEI This is the calculated correlation between the individual attribute and the program effectiveness index. Finally. Attributes in this quadrant should be assessed in terms of being essential to the program and sometimes further education of beneficiaries is necessary. Importance of Program’s Attributes and Perceived Performance include claimed importance of program attributes and perceived performance by the program to deliver on the same attributes. The Motivator quadrant is the area to observe most closely as any activity within this area is seen by beneficiaries to be a key driver for program effectiveness. especially if they are strengths. the most important collaboration partner for UNICEF. Hygienics Stated Importance Communication Axis: What should be communicated Action Axis: Where should be acted upon Hidden Opportunities High Low Potentials?/Savers? Low Impact on Program Effectiveness Index Fig. The remaining program areas have a PEI lower than the average.258 High Daniel Lindgren and John Budd Motivators Motivators: Build on strengths and eliminate dangerous weaknesses! Use strengths in order to communicate! Hidden opportunities: Look for new opportunities to develop and exploit them. For each program component a leverage score has been calculated which can range from 0-10. Review activities and resources and make sure not to over invest. Level of Relevance of Each Attribute Looking at the 6 core program components it can be seen that UNICEF is perceived to perform well in the areas of Education and Health & Nutrition. may not be pulling their fair share of the work. Water & Sanitation represents a fundamental. and therefore indicate the relevance for taking action. This area became the single most important opportunity for improvement. Potentials/savers: Examine your engagement and monitor. On the other hand. It is also clear that the local Government in Aceh. basic need not currently met. . 3. These items are expected by stakeholders so must ensure performance meets an acceptable standard. Leverage scores help to identify which program activities have the highest impact on program effectiveness. It is likely that more education is needed in this area and improved access to information is needed to achieve this effectively. The PEI for these activities is higher than the overall PEI of 49. Hygienic: Maintain performance level. Both Education and Health & Nutrition generate high leverage for UNICEF probably because these activities are the most visible for IDPs. It is interesting to note that child protection is generally not seen to be important by IDPs. Nor does it have any significant impact on program effectiveness. The leverage metric is intended to provide decisional support regarding resource allocation to different programs. Table Overall Performance of Programs Activities 6 UNICEF View on Outcome The development sector is a fragmented and complex beast. and it pays no regard to where you come from – poor country or rich country.A Framework for Social Development Assessment High Hygienics Motivators 259 5 Stated Im portance PEI by Deviation from overall PEI +5 +7 -5 -3 -3 -4 Leverage 6 7 3 3 3 5 3 1 4 6 2 Program activity 1. Child protection 5. no matter where we are – bird flu doesn’t stop at borders. From the perspective of a communicator targeting both beneficiaries and donors. valuable and measurable indicator of how work was perceived in Aceh. the research is an independent. 4. Health & Nutrition 3. Information access Overall PEI = 49 Low Potentials?/Savers? Low Impact on Program Effectiveness Index Fig. So what people think about bird flu in the remote . It is a work in progress. They did grasp the survey’s importance and at this point are still digesting the points made. However the research was a little of a surprise for program staff and Government counterparts who by and large had never been subjected to beneficiary assessments of their effectiveness. Water & Sanitation 4. Avian influenza (H5N1) is one of the very few examples of a development issue which affects everyone. Collaboration efforts Hidden Opportunities High activity 54 56 44 46 46 45 6. The looming global catastrophe of an influenza pandemic was the motivating force – and Indonesia was bird flu central. even within organizations. But perhaps the most important perspective on the research was UNICEF’s decision in Indonesia to take it further. Education 2. The poultry industry is massive and pre industrial. Fig. If the Governments and agencies involved in combating AI in Indonesia. The challenge was enormous. About 1. This thought motivated the Japanese Government to provide a staggering USD 40 million grant to UNICEF to conduct a global public awareness campaign to prevent a pandemic in 2006. or Thailand. Outbreaks Among Poultry (in Red) . About USD 3.000 islands spread across three time zones. It is an essential economic and nutrition issue for these people.2 billion poultry in 17. 5.5 million was allocated to Indonesia. From UNICEF’s perspective it was also an issue killing young people and children. It is globalization by the most unwelcome of definitions. It links the donor to the beneficiary in a challenge which will leave neither untouched. Eighty percent of Indonesians raise poultry in their own backyard in a free range environment. Little wonder that AI was endemic throughout the country. as looking after chickens was a chore for them.260 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd distant islands of Indonesia is going to directly affect us all no matter where we are because the odds are that it will be in Indonesia or another Asia country that the virus could mutate. Vietnam or China succeed it will save lives everywhere. I do not really understand about bird flu” “It only happens on TV” “Our community isn’t too concerned about AI” Under enormous pressure to do something. TNS was contracted to conduct a fast and focused survey of beneficiaries in September. cook. It was hurried and not ideal because it was not possible to obtain answers to a million questions about the issue. The first two were PSAs already being aired prior to and during the survey Table 3. “I’ve heard about bird flu from the media”. 2006 as the mass media campaign was starting. The above figures are a percentage of the 500 people surveyed answering a question about whether they had seen an AI prevention message on television (TNS 2006). report and wash. anything to improve public awareness the research from USAID was used to prepared a national mass media campaign. “To be honest. Take this from early formative research undertaken in Indonesia by USAID (USAID 2006). That research confirmed that the USAID research was accurate and that the campaign was succeeding in providing four key prevention messages. As you can see the survey clearly reflects the mass media messages being disseminated. usable information about the disease. separate.A Framework for Social Development Assessment 261 In early 2006 we were faced with almost universal ignorance and a complete black hole of reliable. Program Effectiveness on Prevention Messages Public Service Announcement (PSA) Cook Separate Report Wash Effective Reach (%) 63 69 44 25 . and this was again apparent in the beneficiary response. Also. resistance was anticipated based on economic imperatives overriding preventive messages. The perception about the initiative so far is much better compared to the Tsunami Relief Effort in Aceh for example. The worrying area for UNICEF was communication to people living in rural areas. The results confirmed what everyone on the campaign instinctively understood. Yogyakarta and the Botabek area are critical regions to look at to see how the AI campaign can generate more impact. September/October 2006 and February/March 2007. All fairly crude but combined with social mobilization and advocacy campaigns in high risk areas everyone felt quietly confident that prevention information was out there and that it had reversed the overwhelming ignorance on the issue. The mass media campaign reached well over 100 million people and ran in two blocks. regional differences do exist and there is a strong indication that the effort is not really generating changes in behaviour. South Sulawesi. Clearly there was success in providing information through national TV PSA campaigns. especially in terms of government and community involvement.262 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd period. . especially in rural areas where also exposure to poultry is much higher. But could any changes in behaviour be seen? Yes. beneficiaries in the higher risk provinces of Java and South Sulawesi judged the community level/grassroots communication to need further work. This applies to both urban and rural areas (TNS 2007). But. The survey stated that: Overall the AI initiative has come off to a relative good start. The third advertisement had been broadcast for about a week and the fourth had just started to be shown. However. in terms of institutional change. The Indonesian Government at all levels was focused on the issue but what of the individual? TNS was commissioned to conduct an impact survey using the newly developed methods presented here. avian Influenza and terrorism are all examples of issues that affect people across borders creating a situation in which the developed and the developing world intersect. Overall Performance of Program Activities in Rural Areas But by using the leverage column it is relatively easy to see that major work should be done to obtain further government involvement. Message content 4. Initiatives & programs 7. The TNS beneficiary research clearly points to a need for an adjustment in tactics. messages and targets for the remainder of the campaign in 2007-2008. other media 8. SARS. This in turn has opened up a two-way link between beneficiaries and donors. Int. This probably has a lot to do with the traditional relationships between Indonesian people and the Government. Consultation 9. TV Media 2. 7 Low Future Perspectives There seems to be a great interest for a tool to monitor social programs at this point in time. Print. Radio. News & information 3. Agency contribution 9 Hidden Opportunities High Fig. Community involvement 6. It is no longer a situation where donors passively donate funds to a cause in a far away coun- .A Framework for Social Development Assessment H igh Hygienics Motivators 263 1 S tated Im portance Program activity Overall performance Good Good Average Average Average Poor Poor Poor Poor Leverage 7 9 5 7 5 6 2 2 5 3 6 5 8 7 Potentials?/Savers? Low Impact on PEI 2 4 1. So part of the strategy for 2007 will be to support the government in establishing district level task forces on avian influenza and piloting a range of preventative measures in a village to see what initiatives will work. 6. Government involvement 5. the time of globalization. 264 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd try. The country may still be far away but the problem may be as much their problem as the beneficiaries. For example, whilst having the largest number of confirmed deaths, the avian influenza problem is not just an Indonesia problem, it is a global problem. Hence, donors no longer want to just feel good about contributing to a good cause, they now also want to see results. Already, the framework has established itself as a valuable monitoring and evaluating tool. It is the only independent method of assessing beneficiary attitudes to services being provided to them. But the tool should not be confined to development issues. Governments and social service providers in the developed world can use this Framework as a way of assessing their effectiveness and judging what people think is important. The Framework was extremely helpful for UNICEF’s communication outputs. The other benefit is that it provides information at two levels. The model is a bit like an iceberg, the tip is the TRI*M Index which is accessible and allows you to quickly see the most valuable insights, and beneath the surface is a wealth of supporting detailed information. Indonesia is a country that has learnt to cope with the most testing of times. In the past 3 years it has suffered repeated natural disasters and also health crises. The Framework worked in providing the information we needed in that environment but among people who are more used to coping than others. The next step for the model is to be tested in different cultures and looking at other social issues in a less extreme situation. Perhaps a challenge for the social development assessment framework can be put forward. Can it be used to provide vital clues as to why some of the Millennium Development Goals are being met in many regions of the world and not in others? What do beneficiaries, the poor or the vulnerable think of this extraordinarily ambitious promise to them? Changing their perceptions, influencing their attitudes to change negative or ignorant actions into positive behaviour A Framework for Social Development Assessment 265 is one of the main means by which cycles of poverty and high risk activities can be broken. The Framework has the potential to contribute to this process. Time is running out before the deadline has to be met, but it is not too late to try out a new approach. References Hermann S. P, (2007) “Measuring, Managing and Monitoring CSR as a Driver for Corporate Reputation”, World Council for Corporate Governance Conference-, Vilamoura, Portugal, February, 2007 Huber M, Scharioth J, Pallas M (2004), Putting Stakeholder Management into Practice, Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer. O’Gorman S, Pirner P, Measuring and monitoring Stakeholder Relationships: Suing TRI*M as an Innovative Tool for Corporate Communication, in: Huber M, Pallas M (eds.) (2006), Customising Stakeholder Management Strategies, Munich: Springer, pp 89-100. Scharioth J, Norma B, Auditing firms today and tomorrow, in: Huber M, Scharioth J, (2003), Achieving Excellence in Stakeholder Management, Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer, pp125-140 The Millennium Development Goals Report, July, 2007 TNS Indonesia, Avian Influenza Campaign Measurement, November, 2006 TNS Indonesia, Social Development Assessment Framework: Evaluating the Performance of the National AI Initiative from a Beneficiary Perspective, May, 2007 TNS Indonesia (2006), Tsunami Relief Impact Study UN Management Information Service in collaboration with Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Agency (BRR) (8 Dec 2005), The Tsunami Recovery Status Report USAID, Avian Influenza: A Qualitative Research Report, May, 2006 WHO, Health Status Statistics: Mortality: Under-five and infant mortality rates, by WHO Region, 2003 Polling in Developing Democracies – The Case of the Philippines Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez Abstract Public opinion polling is relatively new in the Philippines, but becoming more prominent in the public arena as reputable survey firms run high-profile pre-election surveys. In the past 5 elections an “exit poll” has been conducted with the support of ABS-CBN, the biggest media network in the Philippines. Such public-opinion polls enable voters to express their views and, in the process, to acquire power with the information these polls bring. Pre-election polls and exit poll surveys done by reputable survey establishments act as safeguards by quickly establishing probable winners, thus discouraging unscrupulous politicians from committing election fraud. This chapter will describe the data collection process and the challenges encountered in conducting public-opinion polls in the Philippines, a developing democracy with a challenging geography and widespread corruption. 1 Background The Philippines became the first democracy in Asia. In 1896, after over 300 years as a colony of Spain, the Filipinos revolted and established the first republic in Asia in June, 1898. But in December, 1898, Spain was defeated in the Spanish-American War and, in the Treaty of Paris, sold the Philippines to America. Until the Philippines became a Commonwealth in 1935, it was a colony of the United States. As such, Filipinos were trained in the democratic system of government, which of course, included elections. Then the War with Japan 268 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez broke out in 1941. After the defeat of Japan in 1945, the Philippines obtained independence from the United States in 1946. Since then, elections had been held until Ferdinand Marcos declared Martial Law in 1972. In 1986, a People Power Revolution dismantled the dictatorship, after which there have been elections to the present day. Unlike US elections (after which Philippine democracy is patterned) where there are only 2 major parties with which candidates for national office are affiliated, the party system in the Philippines is hazy as politicians can change camps at will. More recent history is studded with coup attempts by a disgruntled military. The Philippine government is considered as one of the most corrupt in Asia, which largely accounts for the growing number of poor. Elections are hotly contested, if not bloody, and there have been documented attempts of some parties thwarting election results. Since the People Power Revolution in 1986 when elections were restored, the Philippines has had 9 national elections and in all these elections TNS1 conducted election-related public-opinion polls. In the last 5 elections, TNS conducted an exit poll for ABS-CBN. Because elections are not computerized, it takes the Commission on Elections around 2 months to finish the counting of votes. The lengthy electoral process makes cheating and tampering of results so likely that it is a rare politician who concedes defeat. The typical refrain of a defeated politician is that he or she has been cheated. Although there are still many in power who do not understand the science of polling, it is becoming accepted by the intelligentsia and used as a tool for decision making during elections. The exit poll, for instance, provides a lot of election-day data. It tracks when people come to the polling station to vote, and it provides socio-demographic data about voters – who came to vote and who voted for whom. 1 Formerly Trends, then Trends MBL, then NFO Trends before it became TNS. Polling in Developing Democracies 269 2 Primary Users of Public Opinion Surveys Elections in the Philippines are held on the second Monday of May, and the campaign period starts 90 days before elections for national positions like those for President, Vice President and Senators. But way before the campaign period, candidates and their advisers start to plan their strategies so that by the time the campaign period starts, plans and strategies are ready for implementation. Opinion-poll results are primary inputs to the planning strategies of candidates. Initial readings from opinion-poll results are needed even before the first strategic plans are made, as these would indicate how the electorate perceives a candidate. From these initial readings, political strategists would determine the goals for their candidate and map out plans on how to achieve these goals. After the goals are set, subsequent surveys would be needed to track voters’ responses to tactical efforts being implemented and evaluate whether these are on track to achieve their strategic goals. Survey results also provide data on the strength of competition and inform candidates about their relative position. It was only in 2004 when political advertisements were first permitted. Since then, advertising has become a main ingredient in shaping voters’ preferences. Advertising practitioners craft advertisements based on polls and objectives set by political strategists of a candidate to build his or her image. Opinion polls are again needed to measure voters’ responses to the advertising and help decide how much to spend on it. Media (television, radio and print) sponsor opinion polls to provide estimates of voters’ preferences at various points in time before election as well as on election day itself to predict the outcome. The data is considered newsworthy and, more often than not, takes the headline. Advisers of candidates need scientific survey data to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the candidate so that they can take ad- Avid supporters who contribute big sums to a candidate also need scientific data to decide how much money to give a candidate. the ballot box survey method is used. The survey is always done house to house. the respondent is also given the official list of candidates released by the Commission on Elections to serve as guide in writing the names. he or she is given a facsimile of the ballot and asked to write down. After the respondent has finished filling the “ballot”. writing skills lag far behind. Table 1. 3 Ballot Box Methodology After the deadline for filing one’s candidacy. A typical respondent copies the preferred candidates’ names painstakingly letter by letter from the official list. is only between 7 and 8. although there are usually 12 slots for the senatorial race. Average Fill-up Rate for Senators (12 Is Maximum) Total Philippines Socio-Economic Class ABC 1998 2001 2004 2007 7 6 7 8 9 7 9 10 D 7 6 7 8 E 7 6 7 8 . The qualified respondent is asked to simulate the voting process. as found out in the ballot box survey method. While the Philippines boasts good levels of reading comprehension. average fill-up rate of voters. This method has been proven to be more sensitive than just a question and answer type of survey using show-cards of candidates. the names of his or her preferred candidates.270 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez vantage of strengths and correct weaknesses as the campaign moves on. For instance. As in the actual polling place. in private. he or she drops the ballot in a “ballot box”. diagnostic questions about a candidate’s image are also asked so that political analysts and advertisers can implement corrective action if results are not on track with expected goals. the sample is tightened to include only registered voters who plan to vote. the following are considered: • A typical nationwide TNS pre-election survey would have a sample size of 1. As a result. Visayas and Mindanao. • In each focus area. In some surveys. making it almost impossible to interview voters in privacy after they have voted. not possible to interview voters as they come out of the polling station. Finally. • The typical TNS pre-election survey period is one week. the preferred confidence level is 95%. there are many bystanders outside the forbidden radius. For one. for instance. • The sample should be a cross-section of male and female registered voters. instead of interviewing voters as they come out of the polling place. the interview is conducted in the respondent’s private home. sampling straight from the polling place is difficult as there are no published official data available about demographic characteristics and flow of voters through election day. Balance Luzon. In setting up pre-election surveys. It is.200 respondents to afford a readable base of 300 for each of the areas in focus: Metro Manila.Polling in Developing Democracies 271 4 Pre-election Surveys Pre-election surveys are periodically conducted to track voters’ preferences. Voters are verified by the indelible . 5 Exit Poll or Election-Day Survey The Philippine exit poll or Election-Day Survey is a Philippine adaptation which takes local realities into consideration. the law prohibits loitering within a 50-meter radius of the polling station. Coming closer to election day. Moreover. The sample size should be able to predict a winner even for close fights among candidates.272 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez ink that is marked on their forefinger.. as a sign that they have already voted. REGION REGION I REGION II REGION III REGION IV REGION V REGION VI REGION VII REGION VIII REGION IX REGION X REGION XI REGION XII A. at a 95% confidence Table 2.M.129 172 41 59 55 100 144 59 86 79 53 44 42 55 47 50 43 . all interviews are done on election-day. i.M.e.R. In an exit poll or election-day survey. CARAGA REGION 914 174 30 46 41 88 125 44 65 60 41 33 30 39 35 34 29 Group Interviewers Leaders Coordinators Total 849 132 29 46 40 81 116 43 64 60 41 30 30 39 35 34 29 221 21 10 11 11 16 19 13 20 15 11 12 11 14 10 14 13 59 19 2 2 4 3 9 3 2 4 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1. Project Allocation of Field Personnel ASSIGNED FIELD PERSONNEL NUMBER OF SAMPLE SPOTS PHILIPPINES NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION CORDILLERA ADM. The submission of nationwide results is made possible by using facsimile transfer (fax) to transmit the coded answers of respondents from islands all over the country. In addition. The trade-off of having a narrow margin of error (i. Still.000 completed interviews. encoders. mobile phone and jewellery. coders. and of nationwide results at 12:00 noon of the following day (21 hours after polls close). having a big sample size) is increasing costs. e. a total of 1. fax machine operators. The timetable and deliverables are agreed upon and clearly delineated to avoid miscommunication. The sample is a cross-section of male and female registered voters. operate. In the last elections. One could not . as additional interviews mean a significant increase in expenditure.e. A typical TNS election-day Survey targets a sample size of no less than 10. It is an entire assembly line! 6 Problems in Implementing Public-Opinion Surveys When an area is a security risk. the situation is reported to the office and the nearest safe adjacent area is chosen as substitute. albeit minor ones. The most recent TNS election-day survey specified submission of Metro Manila results at 12:00 midnight (9 hours after polls close at 3pm).129 interviewers are needed. and data-processing people. Table 2 summarizes the number of people required to do an exit poll for a presidential election.g. areas where there is lawlessness or areas where rebels like the Abu Sayyaff. checkers.Polling in Developing Democracies 273 level with as narrow a margin of error as possible. there have been security issues. there are around 200 more people needed as runners to bring the finished interviews to a faxing centre. Just in the field alone.000 to be able to net around 5. Preparations take mammoth proportions. etc. The manpower requirement for the exit poll or election-day survey is tremendous. some of the interviewers were robbed of their cash. while conducting interviews. New People’s Army (NPA). however. there have been several attempts to ban the publication of opinion poll survey results. The Supreme Court.274 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez proceed to her assigned area because government forces and rebels were fighting in the streets. Quality control is a major challenge for TNS.200 interviews could be representative of 45 million Filipino voters. First. The transportation difficulties take up a lot of the cost as interviewers are often forced to privately hire the transport service at high rates. We can count among these many top government officials as well as opinion leaders. ruled against these attempts. The Philippines lacks a reliable public transportation system which is even scarcer in rural areas and remote islands. e. so results would not be significantly affected should there be cheating or should errors go undetected. considering any ban “undemocratic”. they point out percentage differences even when these are not statistically significant. . if there is no alternative. It is important to secure the means for going back to the main town so that results can be faxed back to the office on time. Finally.g. TNS needs to take care when hiring new interviewers.. Interviewers with strong political affiliations or leanings are excluded from the survey. a banca (or boat). Interviewers take what they can to get to the required spot: a motorcycle. a minimum of 10% of the interviews are supervised and another 20% are back-checked. Each interviewer is assigned a maximum of 10 interviews only. There are often survey users who are not aware of the implications of surveys. the interview is not counted in. mainly because of the threat of infiltration by bad elements who want to thwart the results and destroy the reputation of the survey firm. Opinion polls need to be communicated properly. There are also those who cannot comprehend sampling theory and remain sceptical as to how 1. In the past. As a quality check. Some influential politicians conjectured that survey results create a bandwagon effect and disturb the electoral process. results are checked for possible individual interviewer bias. If there are errors in interviewing or in completing the survey forms. a privately hired jeep – or even hike. 1. Signs of cheating are also noted when a candidate who does not figure in the exit poll shows up in the official COMPARATIVE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES TOTAL PHILIPPINES 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 NOV JAN JAN FEB MAR MAR APR MAY 4-17 16. Arroyo had caught up with Poe. Poe. but in subsequent surveys. was way ahead of Arroyo.14. In a senatorial election. Arroyo won on election day (May 11) according to TNS polls. In Tables 3 and 4.24.23.Polling in Developing Democracies 275 7 Sample Results of Public-Opinion Polls Periodic readings of voter preference in the 2004 presidential election shows that in earlier survey rounds (from late November 2003 to early February 2004) the presidential candidate. and by April/May 2004 had overtaken with an increasing lead over Poe. Presidential Preferences .1-4 22 FEB 20 19 28 25 8 % WHO PREFER ARROYO POE ROCO LACSON VILLANUEVA UNDECIDED/ NONE Fig.16. The ranking of candidates in the exit poll is generally consistent with the actual count as published by the Commission on Elections.11. the results for the presidential elections in 1998 and 2004 are shown. exit-poll ranking has not been that consistent with the actual count especially with the last 4 slots which usually are very closely contested. Table 3. the candidate is often proclaimed into office. Total Philippines 1998 Presidential Candidates Estrada De Venecia Roco Osmeña Lim De Villa Santiago Enrile Marcos Dumlao Morato Exit Poll 39% 16% 13% 12% 9% 5% 3% 1% 1% * * Actual** 40% 16% 14% 12% 9% 5% 3% 1% 1% * * * Less than 0. Comparing Exit Poll and Actual Votes for President. it is still highly improbable for the candidate to come out as a winner. Yet given the strong blocks of power in the Philippines.276 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez counting: even if sampling error is considered.05% Table 4. Comparing Exit Poll and Actual Votes for President. Total Philippines 2004 Presidential Candidates Arroyo Poe Lacson Villanueva Roco Invalid/Blank Exit Poll 41% 32% 9% 5% 5% 8% Actual** 40% 36% 11% 6% 6% - . Comparing Exit Poll and Actual Votes for Senators. 1998 Proclamation Table 6.Polling in Developing Democracies 277 Table 5. Total Philippines 2001 Senatorial Candidates De Castro Flavier Osmena Drilon Arroyo Magsaysay Exit Poll Rank 1 2 3–4 5-7 3-4 5-7 % 59 40 39 38 39 38 1 2 3 4 5 6 Actual** Rank % 59 42 42 41 41 41 . Comparing Exit Poll and Actual Votes for Senators. Total Philippines 1998 Senatorial Candidates Legarda Cayetano Sotto Pimentel Barbers Biazon Ople Osmeña Jaworski Revilla Guingona Aquino-Oreta Exit Poll Rank 1 2 3 5 6 9 10 8 4 7 11 13 % 56 49 45 34 34 32 32 33 34 33 26 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Actual** Rank % 56 49 43 38 36 35 35 34 33 32 27 27 Source of Actual Data: COMELEC May 29. 2001 Table 7. Total Philippines 2004 Senatorial Candidates Roxas Revilla Pimentel Madrigal Gordon Cayetano Defensor Lim Enrile Estrada Lapid Biazon Exit Poll Rank 1 2 3–4 5 6–8 3–4 6–8 14–15 11-12 6-8 9 11-12 % 56 51 38 37 35 38 35 28 31 35 34 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Actual** Rank % 58 47 40 40 38 37 36 34 33 33 33 32 Source of Actual Data: COMELEC Records and Statistics Division . Comparing Exit Poll and Actual Votes for Senators. August 30.278 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez Table 6 (continued) Senatorial Candidates Villar Pangilinan Angara Lacson Ejercito-Estrada Recto Honasan Exit Poll Rank 8-9 5-7 8-9 10-13 10-13 10-13 10-13 % 37 38 37 35 35 35 35 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Actual** Rank % 40 40 39 39 38 38 38 Source of Actual Data: Final COMELEC Count. Comparing Exit Poll and Actual Voters for Senators. it is expected that such lead time would shorten and become on a par with “Western” standards. However. As the Philippines develops and modern technology becomes cheaper and more accessible. . Total Philippines 2007 Senatorial Candidates Legarda Escudero Lacson Villar Pangilinan Aquino Angara Cayetano Arroyo Honasan Trillanes Zubiri Exit Poll Rank 1 2 4-5 3 4-6 5-7 6-7 8-9 8-12 9-13 9-13 9-13 % 59 53 46 50 45 43 41 39* 37 35 35 35 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Actual** Rank % 63 62 53 52 49 49 43 40 40 40 38 37 * Includes “Allan Peter Cayetano” Votes and “Cayetano” Votes ** As of June 14. The most salient among these is the lead time it takes for TNS to submit its results in a country like the Philippines. 2007 (COMELEC Website) 8 Concluding Remarks TNS Philippines has been successful in overcoming local barriers in implementing public-opinion polls and in adapting “Western” exitpolling methodologies to local conditions.Polling in Developing Democracies 279 Table 8. current methodologies leave much room for improvement. however. However. 2001.280 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez Polling in the Philippines is still a highly misunderstood science. 2004 ABS-CBN/Pulse Asia/TNS Exit Poll 2007 . poor infrastructure and widespread corruption. If done properly. and that safeguards are implemented to protect the integrity of the interviews. that interviews are actually conducted. 1998. References COMELEC Records and Statistics Division ABS-CBN/SWS/TNS Exit Poll 1995. with appropriate quality-control measures. its regular and constant implementation and the public dissemination of its results familiarize the general populace as regards its validity. It is becoming more widely known that there is a science to determining who and where to interview. polling can be a reliable tool even in a developing democracy like the Philippines with its challenging geography. This article describes the research approach undertaken. France . In 2005. TNS used a mix of ad hoc qualitative work and the development of an audience monitor (involving Conversion Model™) to meet the research need. The Māori language and culture play a central role in forming this identity. For example. countries are starting to recognise the need to preserve and promote their cultural identity. In response. is that the world is increasingly becoming more as one culture with differences in national cultural identity diminishing (Berkowitz et. Māori Television needed a research partner to help identify its potential audience and how they could best reach it. TNS was commissioned as Māori Television Service’s research partner to help answer these questions. In New Zealand. al 2000). highlights some of the main findings. there is a desire to preserve the national cultural identity of the country. 1 Background A common stream of thought on the topic of globalization. The Government has written legislation and created entities to protect and promote the Māori language and culture.Māori Television Services – Raising Knowledge of Māori Language and Culture in New Zealand Elizabeth Vink Abstract. An example of this is seen in the writing of the Māori Television Service Act which led to the establishment of Māori Television Service. and describes the role which TNS has played in helping to deliver insight to Māori Television Service. 329 people) identifying themselves as Māori (Statistics New Zealand 2007a). but promoted. Consequently. this is more common among those aged 65 years and over (where 48. 23.613 people) are able to converse every day things in Māori. Māori are the indigenous people of New Zealand.7 percent (131. where possible they worked to replace Franglais with pure French words (Llosa 2000). Discussions focused on the need to avoid isolating indigenous people as well as informing and educating the wider population of the language and culture. Across the total population of New Zealanders 4.7 percent of Māori this age could hold a conversation in Māori) (Statistics New Zealand 2007b). However. In this forum. Other countries including New Zealand are undertaking steps to ensure their culture is not lost.1 percent (157.6 percent (565. In an effort to preserve and grow New Zealand’s identity in an everincreasing globalised world.110 people) are able to have a conversation about everyday things in Māori (Statistics New Zealand 2007a). . In 1987. Among Māori alone. the New Zealand Government has put in place legislation and entities to protect and promote the Māori language and culture. Māori was made an official language (in addition to English) (Te Taura Whiri i te Reo Māori 1994).282 Elizabeth Vink was concerned by the English influence on their culture and reviewed the use of Franglais (a mixture of English and French words). Educational and Cultural Organisation) stated that cultural diversity played a vital role in today’s globalised world (United Nations 2003). The Māori culture and language is therefore a key part of New Zealand’s identity. Māori make up the second largest ethnic group within New Zealand with around 14. The United Nations discussed the issue of protecting and promoting indigenous education and culture within countries. a representative from the UNESCO (United Nations Scientific. TV2. cost effective Māori television service. The big question was how. movies. and TV3) for their dose of news and current affairs. Māori Television Service (Māori Television). which informs. Māori Television’s principal function is to promote the Māori language and culture: „… through the provision of a high quality. a great sense of humour and plenty of content to entertain and challenge fluent Māori speakers. sport. the young station grappled with one key question: How could it carve out a sustainable. but draw thousands of new viewers to tune in via UHF or the Sky platforms? It wanted to enlarge its committed audience in an efficient. TNS established the Māori Television Audience Monitor and conducted qualitative research to help support Māori Television in their goals. solid audience in a tough market? It was young and fresh. and in doing so enriches New Zealand’s society. most switch to the older free-to-air channels (TV One. acquisition and production strategies. in both Māori and English. Consequently. cost-effective way. Māori Television knew from its establishment that it had a great opportunity to attract audiences by having professionally produced local content. culture and heritage” (Te Puni Kōkiri 2001). . However. but how could it compel not only its present viewers to stay watching. there was a clear need for some questions to be answered and for research to be undertaken. In 2005. educates and entertains. and entertainment. The research also needed to inform the channel’s programme commissioning. since its launch in March 2004. Every weekday evening a substantial number of New Zealanders turn on their television sets. TNS became Māori Television’s dedicated independent market research partner. However. TNS was commissioned to carry out audience research in order to identify and support Māori Television’s marketing efforts to drive viewer acquisition.Māori Television Services 283 An example of such legislation is the Māori Television Service Act 2003 which led to the establishing of the national free-to-air station. conversionmodel. . Māori Television was particularly interested in seeing how the channel could be promoted to attract those who were ‘open’ to watching the channel. fieldwork was conducted on a quarterly basis (June 2005. However. it was decided that only two monitoring periods were required (November 2006 and June 2007).284 Elizabeth Vink 2 Method TNS worked in collaboration with Māori Television to develop a 15minute questionnaire for the Audience Monitor. a random sample of 350 Māori and 350 general population interviews was achieved (with an associated maximum margin of error of +/5. in the second year of monitoring. as Māori represent approximately 12 percent of the gen1 A TNS business solution. interviews for the Audience Monitor have been obtained using a Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) approach. Random digit dialing was used to generate the general population sample (as this has the advantage of obtaining unlisted numbers).2 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence). September 2005. Since the initial benchmark survey undertaken in June 2005. However. During the first year monitoring. Throughout each of the monitoring periods. The questionnaire was constructed to provide measures for the following objectives: • The level of awareness and understanding of Māori Television • General viewing behaviour patterns • Māori Television viewing patterns • Attitudes towards Māori Television • How the audience was segmented TNS included Conversion Model™1 within the questionnaire to determine the levels of commitment among viewers.com/. December 2005 and March 2006). see http://www. it was evident that Qualitative research was needed to look further into those segmented as “Opens” on the Conversion Model™ commitment line. TNS therefore generated the Māori sample from the Māori Electoral Roll and used screener questions to ensure we obtained a Māori respondent aged 16 or over. In February 2006. In addition. TNS established the importance of various attributes and how Māori Television and its competitors are performing on each attribute. By inference. Results indicated that there was a significant opportunity among ‘Opens’ for Māori Television to grow its viewership. to understand the public’s expectations of Māori Television Jaccard analysis was used. . educating and entertaining. • Explore the relative positioning of Māori Television against key competitors. the demographic group tended to be under-represented when using traditional random sampling. from their perceptions and behaviour. and consequently help to achieve its function of informing. Following the December Audience Monitor results. The robust sample enabled Māori Television to understand the data by key demographic groupings such as geographic location. and in doing so enriching New Zealand’s society in the area of Māori culture and language. In order. TNS conducted six focus groups in order to meet the following objectives: • Understand Opens’ television viewing behaviour and decision making. multiple monitoring periods throughout the year allow Māori Television to keep up to date with emerging viewer trends. but not necessarily someone on the roll or with a Telecom account. age and gender.Māori Television Services 285 eral population aged 15 years and over (Statistics NZ 2007c). • Explore the motivations and barriers to viewing Māori Television at all or more often. indigenous documentaries for Māori) and how they should be expressed on Māori Television. all participants had watched Māori Television at least twice since 1st August 2005. ‘hot buttons’ for communications and appropriate communication channels. In addition. The overall sample included a range of ages (from 20 to 64 years). The groups at other locations were conducted at a local hotel. Three of the focus groups were conducted with Māori participants. and a near even gender split. including key messages.g. and three with general population participants. The sample breakdown was as follows: Location Auckland Hamilton Palmerston North Wellington Christchurch Number of focus groups One with 20-34 years Māori One with 45-64 years general population One with 20-34 years Māori One with 35-64 years Māori One with 20-44 years general population One with 45-64 years general population All focus groups were held in the evening and lasted around two and a half hours. Participants were recruited on the basis of meeting the profile of television ‘Opens’ (those who did not generally watch Māori Television but who were open to watching it).286 Elizabeth Vink • Explore the drivers of potential identified in the quantitative research (e. The focus groups held in Auckland and Wellington were conducted at TNS’ offices in these locations. news and current affairs for the general population. • Identify the best ways to communicate with Opens. Focus group participants were recruited by a professional recruitment company. . Other key findings that were pivotal to steering the qualitative research were that over one-third (34 percent) of the Māori population and more than one fifth (23 percent) of New Zealanders (general population) were open to. The quantitative research was central to identifying who the ‘open’ viewers were i. The discussion guide was created in collaboration with Māori Television. at the end of the first year of monitoring. TNS prepared a discussion guide for use in the focus groups. In addition. Qualitative Findings The qualitative findings provided the channel with an in-depth understanding of viewers’ perceptions of specific programmes and pre- . Quantitative Findings As previously noted. 3 Findings Both the quantitative and qualitative research findings provided a wealth of insight to Māori Television. the channel had low viewer commitment.Māori Television Services 287 Prior to the research commencing. Māori Television. but did not generally watch. the results found that while ‘open’ viewers considered Māori Television a ‘rising star’. As previously mentioned.e. this represented a significant opportunity for Māori Television to grow its viewership. and in doing so work to increase the knowledge of the Māori language and culture across New Zealand. the quantitative findings were used to inform the qualitative research. their profile. The channel needed to build awareness among the wider population that is was for all people not just Māori. It was decided that as a useful tool it would be beneficial for participants to prepare a scrapbook prior to the focus groups which would then help the participants to visualize and express issues and needs that were difficult to put into words. New Zealand movies 3. The Listener. Māori Television needed to be present in mainstream media including major daily newspapers. not too long. making (more) use of a Māori/English hybrid language (such that it is easy for non-Māori speakers to understand a programme’s content). In addition. unique identity. the findings pointed to particular programming that could be implemented so as to increase viewership and therefore educate a wider audience on the Māori culture and language: 1.288 Elizabeth Vink senters and how best to improve them. easy to understand. The TV Guide. and international documentaries 2. In order to communicate this message to the New Zealand public. A key barrier to Māori Television connecting with a wider New Zealand audience was the use of Māori language and the perception that Māori Television was more for Māori than the general population. Through the research it was identified that Māori Television’s communications needed to leverage its key strengths and point of difference e. focus on New Zealand and freshness. Sport . major daily newspapers. billboards and buses. TNS recommended a number of actions that could be implemented to mitigate the issue such as increasing the amount of English language content (in the shorter term at least and without compromising mandated responsibilities). News and current affairs 4. albeit sparingly. Documentaries about Māori. the qualitative research gave insight into how to convert New Zealand’s “opens” into actual viewers of Māori Television. In addition.g.g. communications specifically promoting programming (with descriptions of individual programmes) needed to appear on Māori Television and other channels as well as in print communications e. and using English subtitles. Critically. The figures represented a stunning 553 per cent increase on audience figures compared with viewing over the previous four Tuesdays. Māori Television’s General Manager for Sales and Marketing) Changes mooted for the daily news and current affairs programmes will result in these programmes being more inclusive for the ‘open’ group.000 New Zealanders. The main reason this was done was to attract the ‘open’ group. Māori Television outlined other ways that TNS market research had been effective for Māori Television. In short. To sum up: TNS market research findings and recommendations helped Māori Television to connect with all New Zealanders by telling ‘our’ New Zealand stories and in doing so achieve its aim of educating the wider New Zealand population of the Māori. as represented in TNS research. . The dynamic combination personified Māori Television’s fresh determination to convey that Māori Television is mā tātou (for everyone). in the area of programme changes: “We have ensured that all programmes in our prime time. are accessible. the acquisitions department at Māori Television now has a key strategy to: “acquire programming that attracts a wider audience from the pool of available viewers. In addition to the ANZAC Day coverage being a showstopper. That is. 8pm to 11pm. Māori Television outrated its competitors by harnessing the talents of a key New Zealand broadcasting personality coupled with a senior Māori Television journalist.Māori Television Services 289 Putting the Findings into Action Māori Television wowed New Zealand on April 25 2006 (ANZAC Day) with an unprecedented audience of 215. Firstly.” Consequently. in te reo Māori and subtitled. Secondly. it was designed to appeal to the ‘open’ group. one action that was undertaken in light of this strategy was a campaign that included a widely-distributed brochure which conveyed the message that Māori Television has programmes in English. or more bi-lingual. but it also appeals to Māori who are not fluent te reo Māori speakers.” (Sonya Haggie. South Africa.govt. Irwin/McGraw-Hill. 2000.290 Elizabeth Vink 4 Discussion The example of Māori Television highlights the insight that can be delivered when ad hoc qualitative research is combined with a quantitative monitor involving Conversion Model™. and finding out about our potential audience – who they are and how it is that we need to appeal to them”. USA. Global Policy Forum Publications. R. Llosa. 2000. this further increases the knowledge of the Māori culture and language in the country. M.). Māori Television needed to find out who they could target and Conversion Model™ was able to identify this for them. The Culture of Liberty. In using the combined quantitative and qualitative approach. The flow on effect from helping Māori Television to increase its accessibility. In the words of Māori Television’s Sonya Haggie: “The most valuable information we have had [from TNS market research] has been around the audience segmentation. References Berkowitz. In doing so. Statistics New Zealand 2007a. Quick Stats about Culture and Identity http://www. is that a contribution is made to the education of and understanding among New Zealanders (both Māori and non-Māori) of New Zealand’s unique cultural identity. Marketing (6th ed.htm] [viewed 11 June 2007]. TNS was able to clearly meet a strategic need of the organisation. K & Hartley.stats.nz/census/2006-census-data/quickstats-aboutculture-identity/quickstats-about-culture-and-identity. The qualitative research then complimented the quantitative findings in identifying how this could be done. . Press Release HR/4674. Te Taura Whiri i te Reo Māori 1994. Blueprint for a Languages Policy: New Zealand Public Service (May): 5.stats.govt.Māori Television Services 291 Statistics New Zealand 2007b. as Permanent Forum Continues Second Session.xls] [viewed 11 June 2007].nz/NR/rdonlyres/ C9A86DBD-5B34-402D-8947-7F705104026B/0/RegionalSummaryTablesTerritorialAuthority.nz/publications/subject/default. Regional Summary Tables – Territorial Authority [online version via http://www.htm] [viewed 11 June 2007]. [online version via http://www.tpk. May. Māori Television Service Fact Sheet. Te Puni Kōkiri 2001. Importance of Indigenous Education and Culture Highlighted.govt. United Nations 2003.asp# broadcasting] [viewed 11 June 2007].nz/census/2006-census-data/quickstats-aboutMāori/2006-census-quickstats-about-Māori-revised.govt. Statistics New Zealand 2007c. .stats. Quick Stats about Māori [online version via http://www. Chemical Engineering from the University of the Philippines. Munich. Email: Mercy. which was eventually bought by AC Nielsen. and a rich international experience in multi-country project management in the Balkan region.com Bielenski.About the Authors Abrasheva. [email protected]. Marchella is one of the leading Bulgarian sociologists and market / political analyzers. Abrasheva has a renowned professional experience and qualifications in qualitative and quantitative research. Bulgaria. Abad graduated B. Makati City 1200.abracheva@gallup-bbss. the local market and opinion research society. Mrs. Abrasheva is a regular contributor to Bulgarian Foreign Policy magazine and Bulgarian „24 hours” Daily Newspaper since 2004. Harald is Head of the Labour Market Research Unit at TNS Infratest Sozialforschung. Germany. Contact details: 23. Mrs. Her experience covers both quantitative and qualitative research over a wide range of areas. She was president of MORES. 12/F PSBank Center. 777 Paseo De Roxas. and TNS Trends. Philippines. Tel: +63 2 9253745. Mercedes is Managing Director of TNS Philippines. She has 15 years experince with BBSS Gallup International. He holds a diploma in Sociology and has a special research interest in labour . 1983. com Abad. She has set-up and helped manage two major research companies in the Philippines: Consumer Pulse. James Boucher Street. 1164 Sofia. Mrs. Contact details: TNS. 1963 and MBA from the same institution. founder of Social Weather Stations. Email: m. of which she is the Executive Director since 1999. Tel: 359 (0) 2 9694 101. a socio-political research agency. 80687 München. Contact details: John Budd. John is a journalist by trade and inclination. Tel: +49 (0) 89 5600-1387. She has integrated the International Social Science Council (ISSC) Executive Committee (a UNESCO organization) and was named Vice President of Information of the ISSC (2004 to 2006).com Carballo. +44 77 39 85 69 02 Email:Marita. Political and Social. Marita is Global Sector Head of TNS. She has published several books and many articles in newspapers and journals and presented several papers at conferences and congresses around the world. polio. Marita is also an active elected member of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the World Values Survey.Carballo@tns-global. For most of his 30 year career he worked for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. He is an award winning executive producer of Australia’s longest running documentary length current affairs program Four Corners. such as the Comparative Sociology Committee of the International Sociological Association and is the Chair of the Liaison Committee at WAPOR. Landsberger Straße 338. and the Commonwealth of Independent States. After leaving the ABC he joined UNICEF in Jakarta as Head of Communication and Private Sector Fund Raising in 2003.294 About the Authors market policy and working conditions. Marita integrates key positions in different organizations. He was part of the UNICEF team which responded to the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami in Aceh. UNICEF. Email: Harald. Germany. Budd is now the regional communication advisor for the UNICEF region of Central and Eastern Europe.Bielenski @tns-infratest. She also served as a professor and later. He has also led behaviour change communication in the areas of maternal health. Contact details: TNS Infratest Sozialforschung GmbH. and was National Editor of TV News. Marita started her career in Argentina.com Budd. Director of the Sociology Department at the Catholic University between 1986 and 2002. Contact details: TNS Tel. Email: buddeye@gmail. primary education. where she was President and CEO of Gallup Argentina from 1979 to 2001. and other immunization issues as well as avian influenza.com . he has been in charge of the coordination of survey research in countries around the world for an important number of international institutions like the World Health Organisation. and the merger with NFO. made TNS the world’s second largest market research company in the world. As Chief Executive. and the World Bank. Tony is the President of TNS. She has a Graduate in Law of the Catholic University Buenos Aires. Hermann Debroux 40. Av. Belgium. Tony was responsible for building the company’s specialist divisions and syndicated panel services over a period of 35 years. in addition to significant organic growth. In January 2001. Córdoba 883.Chelala@tns-opinion. Piso 12. and post graduate studies in London School of Economics in Business and Management and research methods in Michigan University. Contact details: TNS Gallup. member of ESOMAR. MRS. Email: constanza. Tony is President of Gallup International Association. Over the last 10 years. the merger with Sofres in 1997.com Cilley. and World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR). She is the author of numerous papers presented in WAPOR and Gallup International Association’s Conferences. 1160 Brussels. TNS opinion is currently in charge of the Eurobarometer surveys on behalf of the European Commission. He is member of World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) and ESOMAR. With Tony as Chairman. Tel: +32 (0) 2 66 118 66. Pascal is Managing Director of TNS Opinion. Av. 20 further acquisitions completed during the period 2000-2005.cilley@tns-gallup. Tony was named Market Research Executive of the Decade by Inside Research – the leading USA newsletter for the MR industry. Email: Pascal. In January . Argentina. Contact details: TNS Opinion. Founder member of Taylor Nelson Ltd in 1965. com. a coordination centre for multi-country studies based in Brussels (Belgium).ar Cowling. Pascal has a Master in Management Sciences from the Solvay Business School (ULB Brussels). he led the company through the acquisition of AGB UK in 1992. Constanza is the Manager of Political and Social International Research and Head of Population studies in TNS Gallup Argentina. the European Commission. C1054AAH Buenos Aires.About the Authors 295 Chelala. Tel: 54 11 5218 2000. the European Central Bank. Tony was awarded the MRS Gold Medal. Leendert is Managing Director of TNS Opinion. Hermann Debroux 40. Email: Richard. Av. Hilmer@infratest-dimap. He holds a Ph. Moosdorfstrasse 7-9.com Hilmer. political parties. Email: Ulf. Email: Leendert. the leading German public TV station. Major international clients include the EU Commission. He has published extensively in the field of political and election research. the European Central Bank. Contact details: Ulf Hjelmar.D. UNICEF and Red Cross.Cowling@tnsglobal. 1160 Brussels. Richard Hilmer is a member of the WAPOR committee “Exit Polling”. He is also the Global Key Account Director within TNS for the European Institutions. From 1995-2004 he worked at TNS Gallup in Denmark where he was in charge of social and political research. Tel: +32 (0) 2 66 118 66. Contact Details: TNS Infratest. Belgium. Ulf is responsible for the development of TNS’ research tools directed towards the public sector. France’s oldest polling agency. UNICEF etc. Tel. and political parties. IEP). he is particularly involved in electoral reporting for the ARD. Tony regularly presents papers at conferences and congresses around the world. Over the last 10 years. As head of Infratest dimap. in political science and has published numerous articles in international journals and several books within this field.com De Voogd. international organizations. he has been in charge of the coordination of survey research in countries around the world for an important number of international institutions like the European Commission. Contact details: TNS Opinion. and other public institutions. Richard is Managing Director of TNS Infratest Social Research and of Infratest dimap in Germany. Contact details: TNS Tel: +44 1372 825904 E-mail: Tony. where he served as Research Director.com . From 1997 to 2002 he worked at IFOP. TNS Political & Social. TNS Infratest Social Research is the leading German provider of tools for strategic communication for [email protected]@tns-opinion.296 About the Authors 2006.de Hjelmar. D-12435 Berlin. Leendert studied Political sciences in Belgium (UCL) and in France (Sciences Po. +49 (0)30 533 22 113. Daniel joined TNS Indonesia in 2002 .com Langer. He received his MA and Ph. he was Vice President and the Manager of the Polling. Daniel has over 18 years experience in marketing and marketing research consulting. His academic training focused on public opinion (including both methodological and substantive issues). data collection and tabulation for most ABC News/Washington Post Polls. His awards include a 2005 news Emmy – the first to cite a public opinion poll.. He holds an Honours and Masters degree in Political Studies from Queen’s University and a Doctoral Degree in Political Science from the University of British Columbia. in sociology from Temple University. His group at TNS conducts the sampling. 001 215 442 9638.lambert@tns-global. 410 Horsham Rd. Gary has been director of polling at ABC News since 1998. 900 – 2 Bloor Street East. Tel. the Journal of Politics. including the Canadian Journal of Political Science. Richard is responsible for TNS Canadian Facts’ public sector research. with a particular emphasis on projects requiring rigorous research methods. Contact details: Gary. Email: Richard. Contact details: TNS. Ontario. Canada.com Lindgren. Toronto. David B. Contact Details: TNS Canadian Facts. Langer is past president of the New York Chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research and a trustee of the National Council on Public Polls. USA. M4W 3H8. (613) 230-4408. Email: dave.com Lambert.D. a 2004 Emmy nomination. He has published articles in a number of respected peer-reviewed journals. PA 19044.Jenkins @tns-global. and the 2006 University of Iowa/Gallup award. Prior to its acquisition by TNS. Government and Social Research Group at Chilton Research Services. He has over 25 years' experience in survey research. public policy and Canadian politics. and chapters in a number of edited books. Tel. is Senior Vice President and Director of Polling & Social Research at TNS USA. Horsham. he worked previously as ABC’s senior polling analyst (19901997) and as a newsman at The Associated Press (1980-1990)[email protected] the Authors 297 Jenkins. a market research firm in Chicago. Contact details: TNS India.com Mukherji.298 About the Authors and was head of polling and social research for several years working closely with a number of donor organizations including UNICEF. Email: Daniel. IFES. New Delhi 110 016.Lindgren@tns-global. ILO and IRI.S. Tel. ILO. He is a life member of Indian Association for the Study of Population. Daniel is an occasional public speaker and has written several feature articles for The Jakarta Post.D. Howard and Associates. Email: tilak. UNICEF. She started her career at BMRB. Tilak is a Director on the Board of TNS India and TNS Lanka. WHO. India. managed and analyzed polls on a wide variety of topics. He has more than two and a half decades of research experience. UNFPA.com Quick.mukherji@tns-global. journal articles and book chapters on survey methodology and public opinion. He has conducted research studies for USAID. She has twenty years experience in research – primarily for the public sector. and then moved . He holds an M Sc (Hons) Degree in Mathematics from BITS. Contact details: TNS. CICD Tower. Ph : (+ 91 11) 4256 6666. and member of International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP). DFID. Before this he was Assistant Director of Polling at ABC where he designed. +62 21 252 6022/23. World Bank et al and several Indian Government Ministries/ departments. he was Director of Surveys at Voter News Service and before that Senior Project Director and Methodologist at D. Email daniel. Prior to joining ABC News. Van Zorge Report. Pilani. Hauz Khas Institutional Area.m. Merkle is the author of over 50 conference papers. and Indian Society for Social Sciences in Health. Susannah is the UK Managing Director of TNS Public Services. and Indonesian Business Perspective as well as coauthored a book. He received his MA and Ph. He has published papers/articles in edited books and presented at national and international seminars/conferences. in communication research from Northwestern University.com Merkle. Daniel is Director of the Election Decision Desk at ABC News where he’s responsible for election data and projections.merkle@abc. com Somayajulu. Email: Ophie. Population Council. Contact details: TNS India. India. Brice is the Deputy managing director of TNS Sofres and Head of the public opinion strategies department. She graduated in Statistics from the University of the Philippines. +63 2 9253745.com Ramirez. During her career she has worked on a huge variety of contracts – primarily for central Government clients such as the Department of Health and the Department of Trade and Industry. and holds DEAs (postgraduate qualifications) in philosophy and political studies. DFID. Tel: +44 (0) 20 8334 4208. Mumbai. He holds an M Sc Degree in Statistics. 1984. Contact details: Susannah Quick. Ph : (+ 91 11) 4256 6666.com Teinturier. IRH. He has 19 years of research experience. is Vice President and Head of Social Research with TNS India at Delhi. but also for Government agencies and charities. HIV/AIDS Alliance. New Delhi 110 016. Action Aid. UK. national journals and presented at national and international seminars/conferences. M A in Sociology from Annamalai University. However. TNS. World Bank. He has 60 papers/articles published in edited books. Path. TW9 1SE. Tel. Richmond.uv@tns-global. Email: Susannah. UNFPA. U. He has conducted research studies for USAID. ILO. over recent years her main area of activity has been in education research. M Phil and Ph D in Population Studies from International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS). Hauz Khas Institutional Area. Ophelia has been with TNS for more than 20 years and is experienced in quantitative measurement especially in opinion polling and social research. He is a Graduate of Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris.quick@tnsglobal. Surrey. Email: somayajulu. 1971. CICD Tower. UNICEF. Contact details: TNS. He .About the Authors 299 to TNS to head up the Social research Division. much of which has been commissioned by the Department for Education and Skills. FHI and several Indian Government Ministries/departments. and holds a MBA from De La Salle University.Ramirez@tns-global. P G Diploma in Human Resources Management and MBA from IGNOU. V. 36 Paradise Road. Contact details: TNS Sofres Tel. Prior to joining. Previous experience includes 12 years of work as researcher and senior researcher at FAFO International institute of applied social science.vink@tns-global. Grønland. He also hosts the election programmes on the main media channels: TF1. Ugland has published extensively in the field of living conditions studies. and conducts research for a wide range of research communities. Tel: 0047 23 29 16 00.O. RTL. Elizabeth has a Bachelor of Commerce and Administration (International Business and Electronic Commerce). Box 9016. Numerous articles in the printed media (Le Figaro.nz . Contact details: TNS. Tel: +64 (4) 499 3183. Editions du Seuil. P.300 About the Authors has 19 years’ experience in studying public opinion in the broadest sense. 0140924770. Le Monde) and specialist journals. PO Box 10-132. public and private institutes and organisations.Teinturier@tns-sofres. Email: ole. He is the Co-director with Olivier Duhamel of the annual publication “L’Etat de l’Opinion” (State of Public Opinion). At TNS Gallup Ugland is in charge of political polling for Norway’s largest private TV station – TV2. Norway. Sciences-Po Paris and head of the course on public opinion at Sciences-Po’s school of communication. Contact details: TNS Gallup. Email: Brice.ugland@tns-gallup. related to the collection of socio-economic information for strategic public policy planning in the Middle East. Wellington. com Ugland. Elizabeth joined TNS in 2006 and has since been involved in a range of both social and commercial research projects. Email: elizabeth. Elizabeth is a Senior Project Manager in the TNS Wellington Office. Oslo. co. He is a Lecturer at the Sorbonne. a Graduate Diploma (Marketing) and a First Class Honours Degree (Marketing) from Victoria University of Wellington. Ole is Research Director of Political and Social at TNS Gallup Norway.no Vink. 0133. she was involved in business projects with a national Telecommunications provider as well as having a social marketing role while volunteering for a Pregnancy Crisis Centre in the UK.fredrik.