NREL PV Jobs/Labor Intensity ProjectNew Ideas in Educating a Workforce in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Albany, NY Barry Friedman November 19, 2009 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Presentation Overview About the solar PV value chain Recent renewable energy jobs studies NREL’s JEDI Model Ongoing NREL study Key issues for U.S. job estimation National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 Innovation for Our Energy Future use of government services. health. Indirect Economic Impacts National Renewable Energy Laboratory 3 Induced Economic Impacts Innovation for Our Energy Future . and Induced Economic Flow Direct Economic Impacts Solar PV jobs Solar PV sales Solar PV suppliers and services sales Solar PV suppliers and services jobs Consumer goods and services Sales and jobs from household spending on food. education. housing. Indirect. clothing. transportation.Direct. etc. g. etc. transportation.g. inverters) • Research and development • Trainers and educators Examples • Commodity and materials suppliers • Architects. use of government services. lasers for wafer manufacture • Financers and Investors • Media and publishers Induced Jobs Jobs associated with spending on food. Research and Development Examples: Retailers. insurance companies National Renewable Energy Laboratory 4 Innovation for Our Energy Future . and Induced Jobs Created by Solar Direct Jobs Jobs created directly by production. restaurants. housing. and maintenance of PV Indirect Jobs Jobs created in the production of inputs into the PV industry on intermediate levels of production Examples • System developers and integrators • Installers • Manufacturing (e. Indirect.Examples of Direct. planners. clothing. silicon and wafers. and builders • Process manufacturers. modules. education. health. e. cells. installation. S.Presentation Overview About the solar value chain Key renewable energy jobs studies NREL’s JEDI Model Ongoing NREL study Key issues for U. job estimation National Renewable Energy Laboratory 5 Innovation for Our Energy Future . 3 0.2 0.9 2.0 20.3 1.0 3.0 1.5 5.8 1. 2009 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 6 Innovation for Our Energy Future 2008 Jobs per MW 2025 Jobs per MW 0.9 8. for 2008 and 2025 Global Sector Opera&on PV project construc&on Roo8op installa&on Silicon and wafers Cell manufacture Module manufacture Inverters Research Development and services TOTAL Source: New Energy Finance.8 0.15 0.4 19 .2 42 0.6 5.New Energy Finance.4 0.0 6.6 2. across solar technologies.1% from 1998-07. FTE jobs in PV (2008 and 2025) National Renewable Energy Laboratory 7 Innovation for Our Energy Future .Global Job Estimates .7 GW in 2008 and 340 GW in 2025. PEW estimates U. solar job growth at 19.S.New Energy Finance NEF estimates based on 14. S.Navigant. 2008 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 8 Innovation for Our Energy Future . for 2005 and 2010 U. Research and Development Source: Navigant Consulting. job estimation National Renewable Energy Laboratory 9 Innovation for Our Energy Future .Presentation Overview About the solar value chain Recent renewable energy jobs studies NREL’s JEDI Model Ongoing NREL study Key issues for U.S. large commercial.Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model (JEDI) Inputs Analyzes project-level job and economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation at the local and state level Inputs include - Project location - Year of construction or installation - System type (residential new construction. number of systems installed - Base installed system cost. annual direct O&M cost Option to use default project cost data National Renewable Energy Laboratory 10 Innovation for Our Energy Future . residential retrofit. utility) - Average system size. small commercial. National Renewable Energy Laboratory 11 Innovation for Our Energy Future . earnings. and economic activity Construction – Project development and onsite labor impacts – Module and supply chain impacts – Induced impacts Operation – Onsite labor impacts (PV project labor only) – Local revenue and supply chain impacts – Induced impacts.Output of the JEDI Model JEDI calculates jobs. mono. and labor availabilities by state - Improved property & sales tax calculations - Improvements to resource estimation and system design specifications Other - Allow for choice of thin-film.Possible Next Steps For PV JEDI Development Provide Scale-up Capability – Improve usability for policy makers – State and federal solar carve-out RPS scenarios - Gross and net job analysis by state Improve Cost Estimation - Regular (or automatic) materials cost database updates. or allowance for cost trending from base year data - Addition of a database of manufacturing. land.or poly-crystalline technologies - Add cost of land for centralized PV installations - Add option for single or dual-axis tracking on large scale PV projects National Renewable Energy Laboratory 12 Innovation for Our Energy Future . S. job estimation National Renewable Energy Laboratory 13 Innovation for Our Energy Future .Presentation Overview About the solar value chain Recent renewable energy jobs studies NREL’s JEDI Model Ongoing NREL study Key issues for U. solar PV E. and PV JEDI Model Follow-on analysis will replicate for CSP and SHC National Renewable Energy Laboratory 14 Innovation for Our Energy Future .S. across the PV value chain Compare findings to other studies. economies of scale.Goals of the Study For the 2009-2030 timeframe: Identify and assess qualitative factors that contribute to the changing productivity (labor intensity) in U. new distributed models. SEIA survey findings.g. industry consolidation Utilize historical intensity gains to assess future Provide up-to-date national estimates of U. job creation on a per-MW basis.S. Development and services National Renewable Energy Laboratory 15 Innovation for Our Energy Future . Module manufacture 7. Rooftop installation 4. PV project construction 3. Cell manufacture 6. Research 9. Silicon and wafers 5. Inverters 8. Operation 2.Value Chain Segments Covered by Study (NEF Model) 1. - State specific incentive and certification laws impacting installers National Renewable Energy Laboratory 16 Innovation for Our Energy Future .Who We’re Interviewing for the Study Direct sectors of Solar PV Industry - Installers - Manufacturers - Vertically integrated organizations - Distributors Large and small enterprises - Broad range of industry participant size and scope of operations National coverage to capture localized economic and labor variations Variations in state laws and regulations that influence labor productivity. S.Presentation Overview About the solar value chain Recent renewable energy jobs studies NREL’s JEDI Model Ongoing NREL study Key issues for U. job estimation National Renewable Energy Laboratory 17 Innovation for Our Energy Future . net employment: Displacement of conventional energy source employment Need for support infrastructure growth and employment SolarGrid model CREZ model Scale-up Scenarios and assumptions U. Strategic position vis-à-vis China on PV-related manufacturing (more in a moment) Difficult to capture domestic job creation from multinational business operations. National Renewable Energy Laboratory 18 Innovation for Our Energy Future . project developers. etc. Effects of mechanization.S. robotics. other process improvements How are ancillary services affected? Lawyers.Key Job Estimation Issues Gross vs. financiers. National Renewable Energy Laboratory 19 Innovation for Our Energy Future .Scale-up Scenarios: Capacity Projections for PV Growth by 2030 300 2030 PV Projections 251 200 210 120 200 240 Cumulative PV Capacity (GW) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 170 180 65 13 12 28 28 Note: The Clean Edge projection is for 2025. S. ceded its position and is now at 6%.S.27 GW in 2007). capital. and land/buildings Installation job multipliers compared with manufacturing supply chain. tariffs. materials. Weighed against expensive labor.S.9 MW global PV production.S. Scale-up scenarios could mean it’s not an either/or for U.41 GW from . China fastest growth rates. 1999 – 40% cell market share 2009 – 5% cell market share (SEIA) Previous history of PV tech transfer to Japan U. transportation costs. Competitive Position China and Europe each have 27% PV market share of 6.U. U./China manufacturing Uncertain effects of the “Buy American” provision of ARRA National Renewable Energy Laboratory 20 Innovation for Our Energy Future . (. is an exporter and importer of both PV modules and thin film technologies Stabenow Senate bill – “Solar Manufacturing Jobs Creation Act” Cost/benefit to U.S. economy/macroeconomic factors: Carbon price unclear. codes experts – Inconsistent/incomplete professional training/certification/ licensing standards • Training does not differentiate among the types of jobs that are emerging • Lack of clearly targeted solar occupational areas. inspectors. tasks and skill sets • Lack of clearly defined career paths • Lack of instructors with a combination of content expertise. titles. practical and teaching experience • Lack of training programs that provide sufficient on-the-job experience and hands-on laboratories • Training does not sufficiently cross disciplines • Lessons learned from other tech industries – Status quo educational system does not prioritize solar training National Renewable Energy Laboratory 21 Innovation for Our Energy Future . designers. sales people.WD Needs Identified by IREC and DOE – Lack of trained installers. CO 80401 barry.Questions? Barry Friedman Senior Energy Analyst National Renewable Energy Laboratory.gov National Renewable Energy Laboratory 22 Innovation for Our Energy Future .friedman@nrel. Strategic Energy Analysis Center 1617 Cole Boulevard. MS 302 Golden.