RPJMN 2015-2019Setting Urban Transport in the Mainstream Prof. Suyono Dikun, PhD Lokakarya Transportasi Perkotaan Dalam RPJMN Bappenas-GIZ, Jakarta, 29 January 2015 2030 296. 2020 271.) Source: BappenasBPS-UNFPA.5 mil. 2025 284. Indonesia still have vast land areas. Intercities.When population soars it is the time transport becomes a part of the solution 308 298 Indonesia Population Milestone Indonesia Population Projection 2010-2035 (mil.8 mil.1 mil. interislands.4 mil.5 mil. Clearly send the signal of emergency of Indonesia transport Year Population 2010 238. It is not the problem of population. urbanization rate will reach 66. interregions even intraregion economic movements will create huge burdens on the existing transport system networks Generated new demand resulted from economic growth can no longer be served by the system. What is the future of our rural areas and cities? .6% in the average of the total population in 2035. No big deal. On national scale. Population could have reached 350 million in 2045. Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 2 . This means more than 200 million people will live in urban and urbanized areas 20 years from now. It is the problem of governments in the past of not being able to disperse the population out of Jawa. 2015 255. 2013 288 278 268 258 248 238 Indonesia population keeps increasing from time to time This will bring great and complex consequences on transport system. 2035 305.6 mil. Oct. This is mainly because our rural economy keeps declining and rural transport is not well developed. 1 18. October 2013 3 . The fertile land had been converted to non-agriculture land.Population imbalances.7 20.8 15.5 159 164 168 Kalimantan Bali dan Nusa Tenggara Jawa 137 145 153 50. landslide.9 13. Jawa is also vulnerable to the shortage of natural and mineral resources.1 17. With only 6% of total land area. 2020 153 millions 2025 Kutoarjo Solo 159 DIY millions YOGYAKARTA Bojonegoro 2030 164 Jawa Timur millions Kertosono Madiun Gundih SURABAYA Sidoarjo Bangil Malang Banyuwangi Blitar Jember Projection of Jawa Population 2010-2035 Source: Bappenas-BPS-UNFPA. drought. It goes almost unnoticed that the carrying capacity of Jawa in supporting good quality lifes of its population has been declining from time to time.) Source: Bappenas-BPS-UNFPA. in 2025) Distribution of Population by Regions 2010-2035 (mil.1 21.1 15. and flood to the rest of the area. Jawa will still be the home of 55% of total population (159 mil.8 22. October 2013 Papua Maluku 18.9 55.5 13. and the declining of raw water deposit.9 66 69 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Sumatera DKI JAKARTA Merak Cikampek SERANG Banten Padalarang Tegal BANDUNG Jawa Barat Banjar Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 Bojonegoro Pekalongan SEMARANG Gambringan Prupuk Jawa Tengah Purwokerto Kroya 2015 145 millions 2035 168 millions Bojonegoro Cirebon Bogor Sukabumi 2010 137 millions Population imbalance is persistent.4 14. some of them become unproductive critical land generating erosion.3 59.4 17.9 22 19.7 15.3 16. and endangering food sustainability. Indonesia population in the next 20-30 years would still be concentrated in Jawa.2 Sulawesi 20 16. big flood. destructing watershed.4 62. they invade urban areas as the last resort to earn money with whatever means they have. North Jawa corridor had never been and will always be in unstable condition due to overloading and other economic pressures. the biggest sector absorbing workforce so far.Urbanization is masive. persistent. out of which 74. Jawa is strong in its economic contribution to the national GDP but weak in its carrying capacity. This will bring a great burdens and complexity to transport system network in Jawa.6% will live in urban areas. believed to be a factor triggering rural economy has been sidelined from the major transport undertakings. What forces triggered the massive movement of people from rural to urban areas? The answers are obvious. is the marginalization of rural economy where agriculture. forcing farmers and peasants to sell their agricultural land and gradually turning them into landless sporadic workers. The current rail system is far from adequate to serve millions of passengers. When they have spent up their money for consumption purposes and finally found that rural economy can no longer provide opportunity for them to survive. Rural transport. has consistently declined. First. and its fundamental problems remain unsolved In 2025 Jawa population will reach 159 millions. now already in oversaturated and overburden stage. Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 4 . 2012 80 10 8 6 4 2 0 58.60% 20 0 Sumatera Jawa Bali KBI KTI Bappenas 2012 data illustrates the facts that economy in several regions grew above the national average of 6. Bappenas.54% 17. This is a political economy without being too technocratic with financial concerns.Regional economic disparity is latent. 2012 Regional Growth 2007-2012 (%) Source: Regonal 100 Development in Numbers 82. Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 5 . and nearly untouched Distribution of GRDP Average in many years Source: Regional Development in Numbers. That a collection of regions that grows positively has no big share to the national GDP. Thus there had been a great anomaly in the national economy: the eastern Indonesia which is very rich in natural. This tegional disparity will most likely be sustain in the future unless government decides to change it by means of massive and rapid development of transport and infrastructure in the regions. Regional balancing must be done through the development of transport connectivity both in national and local levels.3%. mineral. and marine resources for many decades contributes only 18% to the national economy.40% Bappenas. Quick analysis to address this latent disparity points at the lacks of transort infrastructure as one determinant leading to the anomaly. balancing of urban and rural development.86% 2007 60 Sumatera Sulawesi Papua 40 2008 2009 2010 Jawa Bali Nusa Tenggara 2011 2012 Kalimantan Maluku-Malut 23. out of the mainstream. (sd060697). paradoxically. and telecommunication technology. in such a way that even the same technology is not yet able to overcome time and distance barriers.National Transport Policy Urban Transport has to be Revitalised Enhance the Roles of Urban Roads Urban Transport Industry Transport System Management Develop BRT and or MRT Audit & Stock Taking Revitalization of Urban Transport Integration of Transport Institutions While our world is now in the process of shrinking and reshaping due to the transport. our big cities. not only that people movements and living are increasingly difficult to undertake. information. urban economy contributes a large part of our GDP. and rather primitive urban public transport systems. Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 6 . and overcrowding. But ironically. Indonesia’s big and medium cities are now in the process of rapid decaying due mainly to massive urbanization and congestion that create urban poverty and inefficient. Urban areas are powerful economic entities. abusive. Indonesia is in urgent need to revitalize its urban transport. are enlarging. Airport System. and new initiatives come up with a higher figures. Blue Print Inland Waterways. RIPN. blue prints. Bottom-up. Investment needed for sea transport and ports development takes into account the consequences of establishing a maritime axis of the new government. GIZ’s Urban Transport Study. and draft of RENSTRA. Source: Consultant estimate based on several planning documents already officials such as RIPNAS.Magnitude of transport investment needed for 20152019 (IDR Trillions). sector approach Calculation on the real needs of investment to fulfill all the magnitudes covered by sector master plans. including sea tollway. Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 7 . and rural transport. other planning documents. on-budget) and off-budget. Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 8 .This innovative financing could be derived from both state budget (APBN. there is a need for an innovative financing INNOVATIVE/CREATIVE FINANCING Domestic Capital Market Off-Budget APBN On-Budget APBN 2.With narrow fiscal space in the APBN.5% to 5% PDB PDF/ VGF PMN Hibah Obligasi /SUN Infrastruktur Obligasi /Sukuk Infrastruktur Performance Based Annuity Scheme PBAS Available Direct Payment BUMN Infrastruktur Obligasi Syariah/ Sukuk Perbankan Dana Pensiun Off-Budget Private Financing Dana Asuransi Pasar Modal Reksadana KPS/ PPP Bank Infrastruktur Conventional KPS Asset Backed Securities Aliansi Strategis KPS SMI/IIGF /PIP Swasta Murni/ PFI Unsolicited Fasilitas Khusus Availale Indirect Payment Innovative financing is imperative to fill the large gap not covered by government invetsment and other public sector expenditures. The opinion was frequently expressed that cities were suffering from "automoble blight". that if the automobile were banned from downtown areas and satisfactory mass transportation provided instead. congestion would be relieved and greater freedom of movement would assure economic survival for the city 9 .We are now in the era of automobile & motorcycle blight – demand for urban roads are endless Urban Toll Roads Mass Rapid Transit Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 The dialogue started with a statement. saying that the problem of urban congestion has become so great that many communities are coming to the conclusion that there could never be sufficient highway and parking capacity to permit the movement of all people in private cars. Preserve mass transportation or stagnate The argument went on by urging that the cities just cannot resign themselves to automobiles and let mass transportation slide to ruin and extinction. They must preserve mass transportation or stagnate. Downtown is doomed to die unless cities stress movement of people rather than movement of vehicles. Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 10 . It can be argued that the only relief from congestion has been possible because of the motorized vehicles. far from being a cause of urban congestion. It was further argued that the automobile. has in fact made possible a necessary deconcentration of population through the decentralization of urban living and working.Motorized vehicles is the only relief from congestion? Road again? Why not MRT? Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 while congestion originally provided the excuse for the subway. 11 . the subway has now become the further excuse for congestion. what of the possibilities of modern highways to relieve the city of the congestion that inadequate transportation once made necessary? Critics insist that elaborate urban expressways are futile because of the tremendous reservoir of traffic waiting to absorb any new street capacity.. Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 12 ..City is a tremendous reservoir of traffic. If mass transportation is not the answer. Urban expressways and parking facilities not only will not solve the problem of congestion but will actually make it worse.. the better they do their job the greater will be their failure". Those who try to accommodate the private automobiles "is doomed to inevitable failure.. Putting the emphasis on supplying transportation facilities rather than controlling the demand serves only to aggravate congestion. “that neither urban toll roads nor mass rapid transportation nor any other mechanical contrivance can solve the problems of massive urban congestion.Neither urban expressways nor MRT can solve the problems Then come the balancing argument of demand side management that seemed convincing. the quicker will people forsake them and the greater the problems for those left behind to cope with Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 ? 13 . As long as nothing is done fundamentally to rehabilitate the cities themselves. ? As a solution of the traffic problem these devices are pure deception. has been our escape from congestion.Both urban tolls and MRT are guilty The balancing argument continued: “We have the assurance. on the contrary. Guilty that the automobile. Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 Guilty 14 . that the problem of congestion in urban areas has been precipitated by the automobile. and finally that neither is the primary culprit. but rather a host of other factors that have resulted in the successful attempt to crowd too many people and too much economic activity into too little space. that the automobile and mass transportation are both guilty of promoting congestion. therefore. Replanning and Rebuilding the Cities? Cities thus face the difficult task of arriving at decisions that will determine to a major degree their physical and financial future. Should they emphasize expressways and parking facilities to accommodate automobile use. or modernize mass transport facilities in the hope of restoring lost patronage and reducing the number of vehicles entering the city? Or will solutions depend instead on the extensive replanning and rebuilding of the cities”? Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019 Replanning & rebuilding the City 15 .