Hannum&Buchmann

www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev World Development Vol. 33, No. 3, pp. 333–354, 2005 Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved Printed in Great Britain 0305-750X/$ - see front matter doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.10.001 Global Educational Expansion and Socio-Economic Development: An Assessment of Findings from the Social Sciences EMILY HANNUM University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA and CLAUDIA BUCHMANN * The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA Summary. — Among development agencies, conventional wisdom holds that educational expansion improves economic welfare and health, reduces inequalities, and encourages democratic political systems. We investigate the empirical foundations for these expectations in recent social science research. Consistent evidence indicates that health and demographic benefits result from educational expansion, and suggests that education enhances, but does not ensure, individualsÕ economic security. However, the impact of educational expansion on growth remains debated, and decades of sociological studies offer evidence that educational expansion does not necessarily narrow social inequalities. Finally, considerable controversy surrounds the implications of educational expansion for democratization. Reasonable forecasts of the consequences of further educational expansions need to consider the diverse social contexts in which these expansions will occur. Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Key words — health, growth, poverty, inequality, demographic change, democratization 1. INTRODUCTION Among development agencies, conventional wisdom holds that educational expansion facilitates numerous favorable changes for countries and individuals. Improved economic welfare and health, reduced inequalities, and more democratic political systems are just some of the purported benefits invoked in pleas for the expansion of education throughout the world. A recent World Bank document on the Education for All initiative provides a characteristic example: [G]lobal research . . . has established unequivocally that education increases individual incomes; that it is positively correlated with macroeconomic growth; that it is strongly correlated with reductions in poverty, illiteracy and income inequality; and that it has strong complementary effects on the achievement 333 of . . . lower infant and child mortality, better nutrition, and the construction of democratic societies. The expansion of educational opportunity, which can simultaneously promote income equality and growth, is a ‘‘win win’’ strategy that in most societies is far easier to implement than the redistribution of other assets, such as land or capital. In short, education is one of the most powerful instruments known for reducing poverty and inequality and for laying the basis for sustained economic growth, sound governance, and effective institutions. (2002a, p. v) * This paper was supported by the Universal Basic and Secondary Education (UBASE) Project at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. The authors have benefited from the feedback of Joel Cohen, David Bloom, Martin Malin, and Francisco Ramirez, and from conversations with other participants in UBASE discussion meetings. Final revision accepted: October 18, 2004. 334 WORLD DEVELOPMENT Similar rationales for investments in education are readily found in other documents produced by the World Bank, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the United Nations ChildrenÕs Fund (UNICEF), and other international organizations supporting greater access to education worldwide (see UNESCO, 2002; UNICEF, 1995; World Bank, 1999, 2002b). Just how strong is the empirical foundation for statements, such as the one above, that portray education as the panacea for a wide range of social ills? To address this question, we assess the evidence on five related assumptions about the consequences of educational expansion for socioeconomic development: (a) Human capital stock is central to national economic development, as bettereducated citizens are more productive. (b) Within societies, the expansion of educational opportunities enables individuals to improve their economic circumstances. (c) Educational expansion narrows social inequalities within countries by promoting a meritocratic basis for status attainment in which the talented can achieve appropriate positions in the economy, regardless of social background. (d) Countries with better-educated citizens have healthier, slower-growing populations, as educated individuals make better health choices, live longer, and have healthier and fewer children. (e) Countries with more educated populations are more democratic, as their citizens are able to make more informed political decisions. We investigate these statements by drawing on evidence from empirical studies in sociology, demography, economics, political science, and anthropology. 1 Prior reviews of the impact of education have tended to focus on research in a single discipline; in contrast, this paper synthesizes available evidence for a range of outcomes and across the social sciences with the goal of accumulating knowledge from diverse disciplines and promoting interdisciplinary research on the implications of global educational expansion. We also illustrate certain points made in the literature with empirical evidence about links between education and economic, health, demographic, and political outcomes. Note that the term education can refer to a wide range of formal and informal learning programs and processes; for the purposes of this paper, we follow the general con- vention in development organization documents and use the term to refer to formal schooling. Our comprehensive assessment of empirical research on the consequences of educational expansion is revealing on several fronts. We find consistent evidence from a range of disciplines for the beneficial effects of educational expansion in the realms of health and demographic change. There is less consensus regarding the effects of educational expansion for economic growth, the erosion of social inequalities, or democratization. Finally, we identify four plausible reasons for inconclusive or ambiguous findings in these domains. These insights should serve to advance future research on the consequences of global educational expansion. 2. EDUCATION AND NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Human capital stock is central to national economic development, as better-educated citizens are more productive. On the one hand, there is an obvious coincidence of educational expansion and national economic development: Developed countries tend to have more educated populations than less-developed countries. Figure 1 presents an illustration of the relationship, plotting primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrollment ratios against the gross national product (GNP) per capita for 102 countries with complete data in 1995. Data points for individual countries and trend lines for each level of education are included. Figure 1 demonstrates that countries with higher per capita GNPs have higher ratios of educational enrollment, especially at levels beyond primary school. 2 More rigorous evidence supporting the link between human capital stock and growth can be found in BarroÕs (1991) study showing a positive relationship between initial enrollment rates and economic growth in 98 countries. Most recently, in a synthesis of the empirical growth literature, Petrakis and Stamakis (2002) similarly concluded that economies with a larger stock of human capital experience faster growth. Also supporting the beneficial consequences of educational expansion for growth is research on the impact of government investments in education. PootÕs (2000) synthesis of research Uganda. Georgia. Ireland. Source: Created from date in US Agency for International Development. and the possibility that other factors drive both educational expansion and economic growth. Guatemala. ‘‘Global Education Database (GED) 2000 Edition. Chad. Gross enrollment ratios by GNP per capita. Scholars do not agree on the best way to isolate causal impacts on national development. Poland. Guinea. Bulgaria. if the education system primarily serves to sort individuals to fill slots in the labor market. 2000. Quatar. Emblematic of this line of research is PritchettÕs (1996) aptly titled piece. the United Kingdom. Slovenia. France. Iran. Vietnam. 10). Armenia. Morocco. Narr Panama. S. Two factors contribute to the controversy: the difficulty of distinguishing the effects of growth on education from the effects of education on growth. Papua New Guinea. positive relationship between education and economic growth really exists (e. Austria. Belarus. 2000. Germany. Mexico. the United States. and Zimbabwe. Malawi. Spair & Tobago. Canada.gov/edu_training/ged. Iceland. Portugal. Eritrea. Ethiopia. Romania. ‘‘Where Has All the Education Gone?’’ Pritchett uses two crossnational time-series data sets spanning the 1960s to the mid-1980s and finds that the rate of growth of educational capital is not significantly related to growth in GDP per worker. Luxembourg. Macedonia. 3 On the other hand.GLOBAL EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 180 160 335 Primary Linear (Primary) Secondary Linear (Secondary) Tertiary Linear (Tertiary) Gross Enrollment Ratios (%) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 GNP Per Capita Figure 1. Australia. Brunei. Note: Countries are Algeria. Moreover. Azebaijan. Madagascar.usaid. 2000 for a critical review). Sylwester (2000) similarly found a long-term positive effect of educational expenditures on economic growth. Table 4). Tunisia. the incidence of unemployment may rise with education and increases in education may reduce total output (Krueger & Lindahl. South Africa. Saudi Arabia. some studies cast doubt on whether a consistent. Table 5. Mali. Benin. Guyana. on the impact of government policies on longrun growth concludes that the most definitive results relate to the positive impact of education expenditures: Eleven of the 12 empirical studies identified showed significant. Mauritania. Israel. Lithuania. rather than to help individuals to create new opportunities in the market.. Singapore.html. Indonesia. Greece. Mongolia. column 1 in Table 1 . Estonia. Malaysia. Combodia. positive effects of educational expenditures on growth (Poot. For example. Mozambique. Botswana.g. Slovikia. accessed June 2002. Phillipines. China. Peru. Levine & Renelt. 2000. Turkey. Belgium. Ita Lesotho. see Krueger & Lindahl. Malta. Mauritius. Korea. Colorn Salvador. To the extent that labor markets are static. One possible explanation for controversies surrounding the education–growth relationship is a mismatch between education and labor market demands in some countries. Paraguay.’’ http://www. p. Hungry. Chile. Finland. 1992. Moldova. associations between measures of educational expansion and indicators of economic growth are open to interpretation. India. freedomhouse.55)** À0.43 (7.htm.60)** 0.01 (1.02) 0.00 (0.17)** 554 1970–97 142 0.09 (6.10) 0. series 4690: Unemployment Rate [99 countries.’’ http://unstats.usaid.90 (23.88) 0.05 (2.00 (2.93)** 0.00 (0.89)** 0.un. ‘‘Global Education database (GED) 2000 Edition.43) 431 1980–97 79 0. d Source: Freedom House. Models are estimated using data on outcome y for country i at time t.64)** 953 1975–97 151 0.78)* 0.03 (1.00 (2.01 (2.org.00 (1. 2002. 2002..55)** À0.’’ http://www.00 (2. accessed June 2002.96 (18.68 (10.00 (1.32 0.org/ratings/index.33 À0.01 (2.10 (7.03 (3.04 (4.53)* 0.62) À0.81)** 0. accessed June 2002.52 À0.31 (9.07 WORLD DEVELOPMENT Note: Absolute value of t statistics are in parentheses. ‘‘United Nations Common Database.09 0. accessed July 2002.01) 3.93) 0.13)** 139.63)** 690 1970–97 144 0. ** Significant at the 5% level.21 (1. Inc. series 29969: Internet users per 100 population [209 countries. a Source: United Nations. 2000. .00 (3. b Source: United Nations.07 (2.96 (4.66) 0. 1980–97]. ‘‘Annual Survey of Freedom Country Scores 1972–73 to 1999–2000.26)** 0.336 Table 1.02 (7. and allow for different intercepts for countries.html [1970–98].15)** 0.89)** 49. Models are estimated as yit = (alpha + ui) + XB + eit.org.07 (2.91) 0.08)** 0.25) À7.53)* À0.46) 0.00 (4. 1970–2000 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Total unemployment Internet users Life expectancy Total fertility Infant mortality rate Political rights Civil liberties ratea per 100 at birthc ratec (per 1000)c indexd indexd populationb Tertiary gross enrollment ratioc Secondary gross enrollment ratioc Primary gross enrollment ratioc GNP/capitac Population Constant Number of observations Number of countries R-squared (within) 0.34)** À0. Panel regressions of seven outcomes on gross enrollment ratios.un.gov/educ_training/ged.96) 1. * Significant at the 10% level.’’ http://www.89) 3.’’ http://unstats.79)** 367 1980–97 103 0.63)** 0.24)** 0.66)** À0.00 (1.03 0.01 (0.20 (5.25 (2.00 (2.62)** 953 1975–97 151 0.90)** 0. but constrain the slopes (B) to be the same across countries.45 0.00 (0.02 (1.03 (5.01) 0. 2000. ‘‘United Nations Common Database.00 (5.87)** 5.00 (0.01 (1.41)* 0.54 (40.62)** 661 1970–97 145 0. 1980–2001].76)** 0. accessed June 2002. c Source: US Agency for International Development.00 (1.00 (0. Psacharopoulos & Velez. 1996. ´ Rodrıguez and Wilson (2000) show that human capital investment is positively related to national technological progress. mobile phones. education simply provides a convenient ‘‘job queue’’ for employers. positive coefficients for tertiary enrollment suggest that as enrollment ratios at this level increased. Other scholars attribute ambiguous results regarding the relationship between education and economic development to data problems such as measurement error and time-frame limitations. Using an index of technological progress constructed of five components (personal computers. these studies attest to the importance of education as a determinant of individualsÕ occupational outcomes and subsequent economic status. 25). This hypothesis states that educational attainment offers credentials that signal underlying abilities. Researchers in the fields of sociology and economics have thoroughly investigated these assumptions. Hannum & Xie. were historically excluded from wage employment. These studies reveal variations in the links between education and labor markets across industrialized and industrializing countries (see Bills & Haller. 1998. social groups. Net of population size and per capita GNP. but positive and statistically significant effects on economic growth over periods of 10–20 years (2000. They argue that there may be particular synergies between technology and human capital. preferences. Internet hosts. the expansion of educational opportunities enables individuals to improve their economic circumstances. mechanisms that may modify old relationships. 1967. if weakly. 4 Marginally significant results at the secondary level suggest. and televisions). Similarly.GLOBAL EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 337 shows fixed-effect panel regressions of total unemployment rates for countries with valid data for years during 1980–97. Zhao. the same inference. 2002. A final complication is that past studies may tell us less and less about the future. such as the rural poor and. 1996). EDUCATION AND INDIVIDUAL ECONOMIC WELFARE Within societies. 2001). Moll. The possibility that unemployment rises—or at least fails to fall—with educational expansion may be particularly relevant in countries where those most likely to benefit from continued educational expansion. they find that increased years of schooling has little short-term effect on GDP growth. 1998. Variations notwithstanding. In other words. McKeever. After accounting for measurement error. Sociologists have examined patterns and trends in individualsÕ school-to-work transitions and occupational attainment. in many cases. This example. Shavit & Kraus. Shavit & Mueller. 2004. as globalization and technological change modify the imperative for education. Petrakis and Stamakis (2002) demonstrate that the levels of education that matter for economic development may depend on the countriesÕ level of development: in less developed countries. 1984. Krueger and Lindahl (2000) maintain that there is considerable measurement error in country-level education data. fax machines. and time periods (Demetriades & Psacharopoulos. see Psacharopoulos & Patrinos. particularly at secondary and tertiary levels. 1992. women. together with Rodrıguez and WilsonÕs study. and privileges that are important for labor outcomes but often unmeasured in empirical studies. suggests that globalization and technological change may be forging new mechanisms to link advanced skills to national development. The credentialism hypothesis raises questions about such results. 1987. p. rate-of-return studies show dramatic variations across countries (Nielsen & Westergard-Nielsen. primary and secondary education may matter more. & Fodor. Column 2 in Table 1 shows some suggestive results. and per capita GNP. 5 A third possible explanation for mixed results is that different levels of schooling simply may not have consistent consequences for growth across countries. rather . unemployment rates increased as well. regressing Internet users per 100 population on enrollment ratios. Appendix Table A-4 for an extensive compilation of comparable estimates). Blau & Duncan. in the field of economics. population. in more developed countries. as well as within countries across levels of schooling. the significant. 1990. 3. Treiman. Only tertiary gross enrollment ratios show a significant positive coefficient for Inter´ net use. The supposition that countries with more educated individuals should prosper hinges on the notion that better educated individuals are socialized in ways that increase their productivity and improve their economic standing. and that high levels of education may be a necessary condition for technological innovation and adaptation. tertiary education may matter more. The measures of school quality used in these studies vary. This literature generally concludes that the quality of education an individual receives is as important for labor market outcomes as the quantity of education.5–2. 1999a. But failure to consider the quality of education in addition to the amount of time spent in school can produce misleading conclusions regarding the returns to education. In developing countries.338 WORLD DEVELOPMENT than actually improving the productivity of individuals. Robert and Sarah LeVineÕs crosscultural research combining ethnographic methods. Chap. Most notably. Duflo. & Kaplan. and Venezuela indicates that education. To address this concern. Psacharopoulos and Patrinos (2002) also point out that economistsÕ direct attempts to quantify bias in returns estimates associated with ability have suggested that it does not exceed 10% of the estimated schooling coefficients. 1999b). Psacharopoulos & Velez. abilities. in some cases. Foster. skills. p.d. returns to years of education are lower once school quality is taken into account (Behrman & Birdsall.g. rather than generating. n. underlies the expansion of female literacy following the onset of the green revolution. but empirical evidence casts doubt on strict credentialist arguments. a number of studies have examined the impact of school quality on labor market and other outcomes (Behrman & Birdsall. Moreover. 2002). helps women develop aspirations. or privileged social origins (e. 1996. . 1983. educational expansion. measures of physical aspects of schools. the fact that education itself reflects social origins. This effect. choices and preferences. for Indonesia.g. textbooks or computers).d. Studies in a variety of national settings have offered more conservative tests of the beneficial economic consequences of schooling by attempting to address potential biases associated with unmeasured background characteristics such as ability. 1967. These findings suggest that. 7 The mechanisms behind such findings are illuminated in anthropological studies in developing countries. survey work and literacy testing in Mexico. Behrman. for labor outcomes. Behrman. these studies demonstrate that treating school quality separately from time spent in school affects the inferences about the impact of school quantity. but are usually comprised of some combination of student–teacher ratios. 1992 for Colombia). Psacharopoulos and Patrinos (2002) found that rate-of-return estimates based on twin measures or instrumental variable estimates yielded an average rate of return to schooling—10%—that was the same as the average based on a much larger compilation of studies that used more conventional rateof-return estimation techniques. Krueger and Lindahl (2000) concluded that the impact of education persists with ability and other factors controlled. Two recent studies have offered critical assessments of evidence about whether conventional rate of return studies are misleading. preferences. see Lam & Schoeni.7% for each additional school built per 1. combined with the increase in returns to schooling for men. Zambia. and assessments of likely returns complicates the task of interpreting estimates of the consequences of schooling for labor or other outcomes (see Becker. p. 1983). One particularly convincing approach took advantage of a natural experiment to trace the impact of school construction on earnings in Indonesia. cross-sectional studies of occupational attainment or rates-of-return could tell us little about the consequences of further educational expansion. Evidence about the economic benefits of schooling for individuals tells only part of the story. 682) argue that a component of the significant positive relationship between maternal literacy and child schooling in India reflects the productivity effect of home teaching. Nepal. 1992. 2 for a discussion). This study estimated wage increases of 1. teacher training or pay. productivity. 1993 for Brazil. Glewwe. n. also appears to have significant implications for the human capital of children of the newly educated (Schultz. Birdsall. 6 If education were primarily a process of credentialing. deepening education by increasing its quality is as important as expanding education. and particularly the acquisition of literacy. Card & Krueger. Stated more generally.. It is likely that the selective function of schooling does play some role in producing the relationships between education and employment observed in many of the studies cited above. and models of learning that eventually affect their child-bearing.. Rosenzweig.000 children (Duflo. 34). Most of the research on returns to education has operationalized education as the amount of time or number of years spent in school. and Vashishtha (1999.. particularly among women. In their review of studies that used natural experiments to develop instrumental variables estimates of the returns to schooling. or the availability of resources related to learning (e. many of which are not easily incorporated into empirical models. but rather from the specific skills it represents. 10 A second important contextual factor is that the value of an individualÕs own educational credential depends in part on how it compares to the credentials of the local population. but also to the contexts in which they find themselves. returns to education are smaller or even nonexistent (Schultz. the value of a credential derives not from its scarcity. 11 One unique contribution of sociology to debates about contextual effects on returns to schooling is the insight that the value of a given educational credential depends not only on the average level of education in a population. for providing workers with general knowledge. 1970. Shavit and MuellerÕs work suggests that the returns to schooling are conditioned both by the existing stock of human capital and by the nature of the credentials conferred. Psacharopoulos & Velez. the rate of return to schooling depends on a number of contextual factors. 1996. 1992). but also on the institutional structures of national education systems. 9 Where agricultural practices are static. LeVine. 8 Lower returns in the poorest rural settings may be partially attributable to lower quality of schooling or lack of ready access to urban labor markets in which educational credentials can directly affect employment. 2001. As the average level of schooling in the population increases. In such contexts. p. Piazza et al. regardless of social background. EDUCATION AND SOCIAL INEQUALITY Educational expansion narrows social inequalities by promoting a meritocratic basis for status attainment in which the talented can rise to appropriate positions in the economy. Demetriades & Psacharopoulos. Shavit and MuellerÕs (1998) study of linkages between educational qualifications and occupations in 13 industrialized countries demonstrates this point. Zhao. while studies attest to the importance of education as a determinant of individualsÕ occupational outcomes and subsequent economic status. Yet. 2000. 2002). in still others. LeVine. p. 1975. the value of a given level of education in the labor market declines. education is valued for the specific vocational skills it confers. a convergence of evidence suggests that education plays an important role in improving the absolute . As ever-larger proportions of a population obtain a credential. 1991. and to the likely echo effects on their children. While returns vary with context. in countries where vocational qualifications are used by employers to organize jobs and allocate persons among them.). For example. In contrast. A larger conclusion to be drawn from this section is that. 2001. Rowe & Schnell-Anzola. Both of these contextual factors are consistent with a global trend of slightly falling returns to education with economic development and educational expansion (Psacharopoulos & Patrinos. 2004). 47 for a similar discussion). such as during times of technological innovation (see Welch. than for those already in the school system. & Schnell. in others. p. These examples provide an important caution that the implications of education for economic welfare for those remaining outside of the school system may be less favorable. 841).. Rosenzweig (1995) observes that returns to education are high when productive learning activities can be exploited. 1997). its labor market value declines. 1975. Where farmers have the possibility to innovate. 1987.g. as they are likely to be in the poorest areas. 4. Lower returns may also be attributable to the fact that. returns to schooling tend to be higher (Schultz. Moll.GLOBAL EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 339 child-rearing behaviors (LeVine et al.. both poverty and nonenrollment are concentrated in poor rural settings where returns to education tend to be lowest (Lopez & Valdez. credential inflation is less of a problem. Shavit and Mueller (1998) argue that where educationÕs main purpose is to sort students. leading to ‘‘credential inflation’’ (e. forecasting the specific economic implications of rising educational attainments is extremely complex. absent access to unusual data sources such as those utilized by Duflo (n.d. the returns to schooling vary in ways likely to be directly related to the level of local development. in Latin America and China. on average. there is a built-in incentive for young people to acquire more education in order to stay ahead of the queue. 841).. for sorting students by scholastic ability or potential to learn. Part of the difficulty is that peoplesÕ economic opportunities are linked not only to their own human capital. LeVine. such as in areas where the agricultural practices are in flux due to technological modernization. These studies attest to the economic benefits of increased schooling for individuals. In some countries. among farmers. 1971. 2000). 1970). a recent analysis of survey data from 18 countries in Latin America showed that girls in most of the countries receive more education than boys (Andersen. gender. women. 2002). p. Holsinger. 1984. we discuss evidence regarding the impact of educational expansion on socioeconomic. 1993. see also Hout et al. 1993) argue that a process they call ‘‘maximally maintained inequality’’ explains the seeming puzzle that many sweeping reforms intended to make education more egalitarian have not accomplished their purpose. Likewise. Shavit & Blossfeld. 1993). and ethnic minorities is a different question. Halsey et al. For example. Halsey. 1984).g. Geddes. can garner the largest share of valuable educational credentials (Mare. expansion does not alter the effect of social background on educational transitions. Sable.e... Whether educational expansion improves the relative standing of historically disadvantaged groups such as the poor. Educational expansion alone does not change the relative position of social groups in the ‘‘education queue.. 1980. there were more 18–21 year old women than men of the same age group enrolled in tertiary education (Eurostat. women are more likely than men to persist in college. 1980. 2000. Here. particularly womenÕs access to paid employment. long-term trend toward girlsÕ access to schooling catching up with boysÕ (King & Hill. Bills & Haller. but existing studies show only mixed support for the notion that development and educational expansion bring increased social mobility (e. (a) Socioeconomic inequality Substantial research indicates that educational expansion does not reduce the relative advantages of elite children over children from less-privileged backgrounds. 1993. Mukweso. these findings highlight the need to consider separately the effects on educational inequality of an overall increase in the size of the educational system (i. Much of the sociological research attempting to answer this question has been guided by the ‘‘industrialism hypothesis. Research from a wide range of societies finds little change in educational opportunities between social strata over the course of educational expansion (e. norms about female labor force participation can condition the consequences of . and industrialization should lead to greater social openness and a shift from particularistic to universalistic bases of achievement.. p. 2000). & Milton. and ethnic inequalities. Heath. during a period when entrance and completion rates rose for girls. As Walters (2000. & Ridge. they strongly support efforts to expand educational participation by eliminating tuition fees and increasing capacity. Data constraints have precluded systematic evaluation of the industrialism hypothesis. Shavit & Blossfeld. urbanization. 1975. 254) notes. should tighten the link between education and economic mobility. Raftery and Hout (1993.’’ and elites manage to maintain their status by getting more education than the masses (Walters.’’ or the idea that industrialization promotes greater social mobility (Treiman. Expansion at these levels of education does not lead to greater equality between social groups because advantaged groups. 2001). In contrast. obtain degrees. in fact. This theory holds that as societies develop. 1993). 1981. school expansion) and changes in the rules by which educational opportunities are allocated (i.. who tend to favor education. Choy. Further. In the United States today. Kelley & Perlman. in all member states of the European Union. 1993). Researchers are just beginning to examine this shift toward a female advantage in education in some countries. 254). Chap. 1981. Mare. expanding education overall has occurred in the context of extreme gender gaps that continue to favor boys (King & Hill. & Snyder. 11). Even expansions in education accompanied by reforms designed to modify the allocation of educational opportunities within society do not always reduce educational inequality. Knodel & Jones. Smith & Cheung. In the year 2000. in turn. 1986. the persistence of gender gaps that disadvantage females is linked to cultural norms surrounding womenÕs roles in society. In such cases. and enroll in graduate school (Bae. When advantaged groups are not fully integrated at a given level of education. females have made substantial gains in all realms of education and now generally outperform males on several key educational benchmarks. Papgiannis. Schultz.g.. mass communication. in Nepal. in South Asia and the Middle East. Sometimes. (b) Gender inequality Evidence from countries around the world indicates a global.340 WORLD DEVELOPMENT economic standing of individuals. school reform).e. Cha 11. These changes. 1996. rates for boys also rose. such that gender gaps did not substantially narrow (Stash & Hannum. In the United States and Europe. Similar research comparing Taiwan and Korea found very different education–employment relationships for women in the two societies. increased absolute levels of education are likely to benefit disadvantaged ethnic groups. the effects of ethnicity declined in the transition from primary to secondary schooling but remained constant for subsequent educational transitions. there are important linkages between education. and have healthier and fewer children. as educated individuals make more informed health choices. at least in the short run. educational disparities played an important role in maintaining racebased differences in occupational status in the 1980s (Mickelson et al. In northwest China. HEALTH.. those who are otherwise able but lack appropriate credentials are excluded from high wage jobs. while educational expansion offers new economic opportunities to both advantaged and disadvantaged groups. Telles (1994) showed that industrialization and educational expansion were associated with decreased racial inequality across the full occupational distribution. 2001). higher levels of education increased womenÕs probability of employment. an inadequate male labor force pressured employers to alter ‘‘patriarchal preferences’’ (Brinton. in Korea. 1111). outside of education. its implications for reducing inequality associated with socioeconomic status. rising ethnic disparities in occupational status in the 1980s could be explained by rising ethnic differences in education. In short. For example. highly educated women were less likely to be employed.GLOBAL EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 341 educational expansion among girls. Yet. Shavit and Kraus (1990) show that in Israel. analysis of data through the early 1990s showed that considerable ethnic disparities persisted. In Taiwan. it is not safe to assume that expansion in access to education will allow disadvantaged minorities to ‘‘catch up’’ with initially advantaged ethnic groups. 1995. subsequently. Nkomo. & Smith. to maintain a balanced perspective on these findings. p. 1996. Across many fields of research. The effects of educational expansion on ethnic inequalities in occupational status are also mixed. 1998). in South Africa. gender. health. 2002). Lee. Beginning with the education– health relationship. Further. despite relatively egalitarian patterns of educational attainment by gender. 2001) and 1990s (Treiman et al. and those who gain credentials later may have a harder time turning their credentials into high-status or high-wage employment. slower-growing populations. and ethnicity are decidedly mixed. it is important to bear in mind that continued relative deprivation loses some of its significance if absolute deprivation is eased significantly by educational expansion. despite dramatic improvements in access to schooling for both minorities and ethnic Chinese (Hannum & Xie. but greater racial inequality in professional and white-collar sectors. & Parish. (c) Ethnic inequality Because of the close link between education and occupational outcomes. The difference was likely due to the fact that an adequate supply of educated males offered Korean employers few incentives to reduce barriers to married womenÕs employment. While human capital disparities can be an important cause of occupational and income disparities across social groups.. a study of five Asian countries using World Fertility Survey data showed that in the 1970s. as well. women lagged behind men in occupational attainment (Mickelson. Finally. patterns of access to formal education have closely mirrored traditional caste-ethnic hierarchies. despite rapid educational expansion (Stash & Hannum. while in Taiwan. In China. live longer. 2001). & Worswick. Likewise. the most developed and highly educated of the societies under study (Cameron. recent crossnational research has shown that the education of . in Nepal. Bowling. with progress toward equity at the stage of primary entrance offset by increasing disparities at the junior high school stage (Hannum. there are often important contextual causes. EDUCATION. However. fertility decline and. Similarly. higher levels of educational attainment had little impact on female labor force participation in Korea. Powell & Buchmann. AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE Countries with better-educated citizens have healthier. from the 1940s to the 1970s. 2001). 5. Female gains in education are not always mirrored by female gains in employment and income. 2002). despite educational expansion. For example. slowing population growth. as education becomes more central to occupations and incomes. In Brazil. research on South Africa and Israel in the 1980s concluded that. Schultz. and to explain health problems in a comprehensible manner Nepal 2001 Egypt 2000 Peru 2000 . LeVine. microlevel data suggest that.measuredhs. were better able to process information about health (LeVine. Nonetheless.000 live births (column 5).com/data/indicators/. is associated with significantly longer life expectancies and lower death rates (Buchmann. especially girls. However. the figure is 0. Rowe.7 years (column 3). For example. & Schnell-Anzola. children. 1996. rather than specific health or scientific knowledge gleaned from the school curriculum. to understand medical instructions. A 10% increase in secondary enrollment ratios relates to an average one year increase in life expectancy. for tertiary enrollment ratios.342 250 No education Primary WORLD DEVELOPMENT Secondary or higher 200 150 100 50 Uganda 2000/01 0 Ethiopia 2000 Malawi 2000 Gabon 2000 Cambodia 2000 Colombia 2000 Haiti 2000 Bangladesh 1999/2000 Figure 2. even when that education was of dubious quality. DHS data indicate that children of better-educated mothers have lower mortality rates. accessed June 2002. Of course. Schultz. increases in enrollment ratios at all levels are associated with significant reductions in infant mortality per 1. Source: Created from data in MEASURE DHS+. ND ‘‘Demographic and Health Surveys Stat Compiler. it is a general set of skills and orientations that enables educated women to obtain the knowledge or services that they need. whether on its own or in conjunction with improving health care systems. 13 Research suggests that women with more education. DHS countries with 2000 or later survey dates. Hadden & London. 12 Consistent with the aggregate findings just described. 2002). such as ability to comprehend health messages in print and over the radio. According to the within-country. 1996. both survey-based regression estimates and ethnographic fieldwork point to the enhancing effect of womenÕs literacy on concrete health-related skills. 2002). it is difficult to separate the influence of investments in education from those in health care. many studies suggest that.’’ http://www. a 10% rise in primary enrollment ratios is associated with an average 0. or that empower them to act effectively.9 year increase in life expectancy. over-time estimates provided in Table 1. 2004). Similarly. The relationship between maternal education and child health persists across empirical studies that employ controls for other dimensions of socioeconomic status (see reviews in Jejeebhoy. education does have an impact. In Nepal. 1996. The mechanisms driving the relationship have yet to be fully understood. Under-5 mortality rates in 10 years preceding survey by mother’s educational attainment. because educational investments and investments in expanding health systems may occur concurrently. Figure 2 graphs under-five mortality rates by mothersÕ education for countries with recent Demographic and Health Surveys (hereafter DHS) data (2000 or later). 14 Evidence from 20 countries participating in the World Fertility Survey indicated that female participation in the labor force was consistently associated with ´ reduced fertility (Rodrıguez & Cleland.’’ http:// www. Health knowledge. thus reducing the time women are at risk of conceiving additional children. 1995). and more likely to adopt innovative behaviors related to childrenÕs health (Cleland & van Ginnekin. Figure 3 shows that in most of the countries participating in the DHS since the year 2000. they argue that in societies where fertility norms were rapidly changing. accessed June 2002. ND ‘‘Demographic and Health Surveys Stat Compiler. Immunization rates by motherÕs educational attainment. better-educated women are more likely to delay or forego childbearing. Because access to nonfamilial employment expands with higher levels of education.g. Using data from 23 African countries.. less fatalistic about disease. and thus influences fertility decisions. Subbarao & Raney. in turn. contributes to declines in fertility (e. . 1992. While the authors acknowledge that data limitations precluded statistically convincing causal interpretations. 1996). 2004).com/data/indicators/. Kirk and Pillet (1998) show that countries with higher rates of female schooling and lower child mortality experienced substantial reductions in fertility and desired family size. was an important predictor of child height-for-age. Similarly. London. therefore. compared to mothers with no schooling. Jejeebhoy. children of better-educated mothers have higher immunization rates. Better health is an end in itself. but better health also carries implications for demographic change. Improved infant and child survival enables parents to plan their family size and. (LeVine et al. educated mothers were more informed about preventive health care practices such as immunizations. it is reasonable to interpret this pattern as evidence that participation in the labor market is perceived as an alternative to childbearing. Finally. in part because the opportunity costs associated with childbearing and childrearing increase and the time available for parenting declines.. One illustrative example comes through clearly in recent DHS surveys. 1981). 1988. Source: Created from data in MEASURE DHS+.GLOBAL EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 100 No education Primary Secondary or higher 343 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Uganda 2000/01 Cambodia 2000 Colombia 2000 Ethiopia 2000 Malawi 2000 Gabon 2000 Bangladesh 1999/2000 Egypt 2000 Nepal 2001 Peru 2000 Haiti 2000 Figure 3. DHS countries with 2000 or later survey dates. other research suggests that. Lower infant mortality may also extend the period of lactation and postpartum infecundability.measuredhs. GlewweÕs (1999c) research in Morocco highlights the importance of general literacy and numeracy skills acquired in school that enabled mothers to obtain health knowledge not taught in schools. In sub-Saharan Africa. through increasing the pressures on parents to invest in their children and through reducing a childÕs availability for working inside and outside the home (see Caldwell. DHS countries with 2000 or later survey dates. 16 This finding was largely independent of whether the woman subsequently attended school. Together.com/data/indicators/. as described above. In Vietnam. AxinnÕs (1993) analysis of microdemographic data from a rural community in Nepal indicated that childrenÕs schooling exerted a strong influence on parentsÕ fertility preferences and behavior. In Nepal. 1980). achieved fertility levels varied substantially (Castro Martin & Juarez. she lived near a school in adulthood. accessed June 2002. or she sent her children to school. 1995). Finally.344 WORLD DEVELOPMENT Education and employment may increase womenÕs decision-making authority and receptiveness to innovation—changes that lead not only to greater utilization of health resources and improved child health. while fertility preferences varied little across education levels. but also to increased family planning. 15 Even the behavior of individuals who themselves do not attend school may be affected. Women who had lived near a school had 39% higher annual odds of adopting a permanent contraceptive method. Mean children ever born to women aged 40–49 by educational attainment. Figure 4 shows the average number of children born to women aged 40–49 by educational attainment for recent DHS countries.measuredhs. given that they had not already done so. Ogawa and Retherford (1993) cited concerns voiced by women in a national family planning survey in Japan about the economic and psychological costs involved in educating children as an indication of the likely importance of such considerations in fertility decisions. in nine Latin American countries. 1980). and Hewett (2002) find that the onset of mass education. . was linked to increased contraceptive practice. Lloyd. better-educated women (and women with better-educated husbands) were more likely to use contraceptives (Dang. 1995). defined as the point at which 75% of 15–19year-olds completed at least four grades of school. 8 No education Primary Secondary or higher 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Cambodia 2000 Uganda 2000/01 Colombia 2000 Ethiopia 2000 Malawi 2000 Bangladesh 1999/2000 Nepal 2001 Gabon 2000 Egypt 2000 Haiti 2000 Peru 2000 Figure 4. Kaufman. Axinn and Barber (2001) show that womenÕs proximity to schools during childhood dramatically increased their contraceptive use in adulthood. For example. her husband attended school. Source: Created from data in MEASURE DHS+. as educational expansion speeds cultural change and creates new values (Caldwell. ND ‘‘Demographic and Health Surveys Stat Compiler. these influences lead to a consistent and regular association between education and fertility.’’ http://www. educational expansion reduces the economic benefits associated with childbearing. and Austria. studies that do not account for factors that determine education itself may overstate the causal impact of education. 727). Later marriage typically increases the mean length of a generation. Using data from Tunisia. p. Schools produce ‘‘modern’’ individuals who have a greater desire and ability to participate in political decisions and national concerns (Inkeles & Smith. and Doblhammer-Reiter (1998) illustrate the significance of links between education and demographic change by including educational fertility and mortality differentials into population projections. Of course. 1974). income inequality. as their citizens are able to make more informed political decisions. 1996. the explicit inclusion of education in population projections significantly impacts population size. 6. For example. had substantially fewer children by the end of their childbearing years. Their projections indicate that short-term investments in education will produce long-term effects on population size. compared to 0. 1996). there are fewer empirical analyses of the impact of educational expansion than there are analyses of these other potential factors (Benavot. Goujon. While this example suggests caution about the precise magnitude of education effects on age at marriage in research that adopts simple model specifications. experience with colonialism. and noneconomic factors (ethnic heterogeneity. or the time a cohort takes to replace itself. as well as between the expansion of primary education and degree of political development. The political modernization perspective sees a strong causal linkage between an educated citizenry and democracy. Sudan. In their survey of six countries. Estimates in Table 1 indicate that a 10% expansion in primary gross enrollment ratios leads to an average reduction in the total fertility rate of 0. as in the case of conventional rateof-return studies.GLOBAL EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 345 These graphs show a regular pattern in which women with education. position in the world economy).3 years. religious orientation) as they relate to the rise and stability of democratic institutions. EDUCATION AND POLITICAL CHANGE Countries with more educated populations are more democratic. and thus slows population growth even at constant fertility levels. Beyond its effects through health and fertility. 1963. In a study of five Asian societies.2 years in three-stage least squares estimates. . one study conducted in the Philippines compared three-stage least square and OLS estimates of the effect of schooling on age at marriage. the authors conclude that under the conditions of large age differentials in educational attainment and significant education-related fertility and mortality differentials that characterize many developing countries. the corresponding increase in secondary enrollment ratios is associated with a reduction of 0. and substantively. early crossnational studies (Lipset. with the largest effect at the secondary level.1 children. Even so.2 children (column 4). p. 1969) found strong correlations between mass literacy and the presence of democratic political systems. 377). and concluded that OLS estimates were inflated by 40% due to heterogeneity and the endogenous response of schooling to attributes valued in the marriage market (Boulier & Rosenzweig. Indeed. Lutz. Hirschman (1985) showed that womenÕs schooling had a strong effect on the timing of family formation. Of the research that has investigated this issue. Cutright. WeinbergerÕs (1987) analysis of World Fertility Survey data indicated that the mean age at marriage was four years later for women with at least seven years of education than for uneducated women. In the debate over the ‘‘requisites’’ of political democratization. especially secondary and higher education. Research has also examined the role of economic factors (economic development. education may also slow population growth through encouraging a later age at marriage (Jejeebhoy. The negative relationship between education and fertility is also evident in national aggregate data. 1984. the difference was small: a year of schooling in their OLS estimation increased age at marriage by 0. education is just one of many factors deemed important. the authors raised doubts about whether the estimates were statistically significantly distinct. it supports the notion that education is associated with later age at marriage. dependence on foreign aid. two theoretical perspectives offer somewhat different views on the processes linking education with democratization. Such relationships ultimately imply slowed population growth. While many scholars have emphasized the positive role of educational expansion in facilitating political development. 1976). and region. Rubinson. For reasons explained above. & Petocik. Junn. Educational systems are part of a broader process in the social and political construction of society. others stress the institutional influence of the school (Kamens. Of course. and found no impact of educational expansion on political democracy in the early period. institutionalists emphasize the importance of tertiary education. According to the political modernization perspective. the result may be a decline in the independent authority of other collectives (Kamens. in contrast to modernization arguments. 1996) and voice more tolerant attitudes and democratic values. 1977. Studies show that educated citizens are more likely to vote (Nie. Inglehart. political rights and civil liberties. Meyer (1977) refers to this as the ‘‘chartering’’ role of education. whether or not education is beneficial for the development and retention of democracy depends on how education and educated elites are incorporated into the political system of a country. controlling for economic development. and suggests that the organization of education may have as important an effect on political development as the expansion of education. Later studies that approximated a longitudinal design through the use of panel data reported more ambiguous results. while primary and secondary expansion had negligible effects on the same measures. The final two columns of Table 1 show regressions of two commonly used scales. Some arguments emphasize curriculum (Torney. Nie. In societies where graduates of tertiary education become representatives of the nation state. taken from Freedom House scores (Freedom House. p. but exactly how schools promote these outlooks is unclear (Chabott & Ramirez. Thus. one weakness of these studies was that their emphasis on correlations said little about the issue of causality. abundant research from a wide range of contexts shows a strong relationship between education and political participation (Almond & Verba. the institutional perspective focuses on the macrolevel impact of educational expansion. In the 1980–88 period. 1963. Verba. 1988). 18 The assumption is that schools are responsible for transmitting these outlooks. Most of this research focuses on already democratic societies where citizens have rights to participate in political processes through voting and opposition or protest. Both primary and tertiary enrollment ratios have significant. Moreover. 1996. but emphasizes mass schooling— primary and secondary levels—as most important. but they indicate a positive relationship between educational and democracy. and less parochial than those with little education. in which highly institutionalized social roles and categories are created and legitimated (Benavot. colonial heritage.. p. Benavot contends that the contrast of these results with earlier studies (that find positive effects of lower levels of schooling on democracy) is due to the superior methods and data used in his study. 1988. positive effects on both indicators of democracy.346 WORLD DEVELOPMENT Inkeles and Smith (1974) showed that people with more schooling tended to be more individualistic. 2000). 1979). 385). Ramirez. with much larger effects at the tertiary level. 384). and Meyer (1973) found that the level of political incorporation of higher education had statistically significant negative effects on the introduction and retention of democracy during 1950–68. the ‘‘aggregate effects of mass education expansion on democracy are largely achieved via educationÕs socializing influences on individuals’’ (Benavot. but also through the wider meanings attributed to given levels of educational attainment. date of independence. For example. & Stehlick-Barry. 2000). p. more informed and activist-oriented. & Farnen. 17 He investigated the effect of educational expansion over two periods (1965–80 and 1980–88). 1996. Inc. ethnic homogeneity. this view assumes that education has linear effects on individuals that are beneficial for the development and retention of democracy (Kamens. educational expansion affects the political development of society not only through its impact on individuals. secondary and tertiary levels for four measures of democracy prevalent in the literature. 1988. At the individual level. Meyer. educational expansion at the tertiary level had strong positive effects on both measures of political democracy available for that time period. . Oppenheim. 1977). 119). The results presented in Table 1 do not resolve this debate. First. These perspectives also differ in their views regarding how expansion of different levels of education should influence political development. Benavot (1996) provided a more sophisticated examination of the consequences of educational expansion at primary. The institutional perspective differs on both fronts. Political modernization views all levels of schooling as beneficial for the building of democracy. Moreover. 1985). unemployed youth may have a negative impact on political stability (Huntington. The consequences of expanding basic and secondary education for political democratization remain an empirical question. Inequalities associated with economic origins or ethnicity often prove resistant to educational expansion. there is considerable controversy surrounding the effects of educational expansion on the democratization of societies. decades of empirical research in social stratification and mobility offer evidence that educational expansion does not necessarily narrow social inequalities between advantaged and disadvantaged groups. as educated individuals make more informed health choices. In short. Cuba and pre-reformera China are important examples of socialist countries where periods of rapid expansion of ‘‘revolutionary’’ schooling were not characterized by obvious shifts toward political democratization. Reverse causality. the future economic security of the worldÕs most vulnerable children. it is less likely to erode social inequalities rapidly. CONCLUSION This paper has discussed the empirical foundations for widely held expectations about the consequences of educational expansion. First and most strikingly. In short. It is possible that more educated individuals are better able to guess the ‘‘appropriate’’ answers to questions about political norms. but do not necessarily ensure. may hinge directly on the hard-to-measure content of education. the rapid expansion of education in the absence of growth in labor market opportunities may create a crash in returns to schooling. graduates are more likely to become state civil servants and representatives of the country state. substantial research spanning disciplinary boundaries attests to the health and demographic benefits of improved educational composition: Countries with better-educated citizens indeed have healthier populations. This possibility is suggested in studies that find larger effects of tertiary education than lower levels of education. The populations of countries with more educated citizens are likely to grow more slowly. time frame limitations and measurement error have often been blamed for the disparate results. and data challenges. 7. except perhaps for inequalities associated with gender. methodological. This raises questions about the nature of the relationship between education and political orientations. Consistent results spanning many years and several social science disciplines guided by diverse research paradigms suggest that these benefits can be reasonably anticipated from further educational expansion. Finally. educational opportunities enhance. An additional concern is that democratization. For other hypothesized consequences. high levels of state control over tertiary education may undermine the support of democratic political institutions because. perhaps more so than other outcomes. in such cases. Second. and have healthier children. as conventionally defined in the West. as educated people tend to marry later and have fewer children. the presence of educated.GLOBAL EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 347 Several caveats regarding research on the relationship between education and democracy are noteworthy. Lipset. Considerable controversy surrounds the effects of educational expansion on national economic development. many of the studies that attempt to measure individual political views and values use paper and pencil tests to determine democratic orientations. We find that two of the assumptions listed at the outset of this paper are well supported by empirical research. but other studies cast doubt on it. Certainly. Many empirical studies find a positive relationship. Obvious concerns with this line of research include measurement issues related to the challenge of developing valid and reliable measures of democratization. empirical support for the assumed benefits of education is more ambiguous. as educational access often expands faster for advantaged than disadvantaged groups. First. For example. . live longer. In other areas. statements of the benefits of educational expansion for economic growth are still based on mixed evidence. though expansions of primary and secondary education are likely to improve the informed citizenship of individuals. important lines of research in the fields of sociology and political science contradict the rhetoric common in development organizations. Similarly. as research has not established a consensus regarding findings or the best ways to address complex conceptual. numerous empirical studies in sociology have indicated that while educational expansion tends to offer absolute benefits to disadvantaged groups. Second. 1968. it is very important to consider the content of education. Similarly. 1999. As education expands to reach individuals from increasingly disadvantaged or isolated groups. Second.. suggesting future economic payoffs for current expansions. skills. the organizational structures of education. and the specific content of education all matter for educationÕs impacts on various outcomes.g. within countries. and their consequences for economic welfare. The concept of human capital stock has occupied a central role in research on educational expansion. effects of educational expansion on economic development may be conditioned by national political stability or by a countryÕs position in the global trade system. There is an urgent need to develop data collection strategies that allow more detailed empirical descriptions of what education means in different national contexts.. much of the research discussed above underscores the importance of a long-term perspective. OECD & HRDC. Combined with appropriate survey data. The recent International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS) initiative (OECD. and within school systems. at present. and thus enable investigations of the attributes of education that facilitate outcomes across a variety of realms. A final contributor to contradictory findings. numeracy. For example. Third. The observed relationship between educational expansion and economic growth is stronger over longer time periods (Krueger & Lindahl. in part. These differences may be linked to qualitative differences in what individuals learn at these different stages in education. As data for longer time periods become available. 2000). A parallel initiative sponsored by UNESCO explores how adult literacy. While this point seems obvious. For example. 2001). Behrman et al. these individuals may have a harder time than . and citizenship. the ‘‘quality’’ of education. because as a national populationÕs educational composition improves. little research incorporates these nontrivial elements of education into empirical strategies. while educational expansion through the secondary level appears to be extremely important for reaping many health and demographic benefits. Lutz et al. is the point that educational impacts are sensitive to context. four general points are worth considering. LeVine et al. the ambiguities of current research may be clarified with the improved ability to incorporate appropriate time lags into such studies. but few researchers have tried to develop direct measures of the aspects of human capital thought to be most important. such measures would allow direct investigation of the competencies acquired in the school system. social structures shape and constrain the impact of expanding education. tertiary enrollments in particular appear to be linked significantly to democratization and technological change. the expansion of different levels of education seems to have different consequences. This point is as applicable to data collected from individuals as it is to data collected about schools and school systems. and life skills can be best measured in developing countries. the value of a given educational credential in the labor market declines. within local communities. One way that research can make progress in this direction is by incorporating new literacy and life-skills assessments into studies of the consequences of education. Studies also show echo-effects of parental education for childrenÕs human capital (e. to the lag time between improving enrollments of children and changes in the overall human capital stock of the population. This perspective often fails to acknowledge that within the global economy. 19 The measures being developed by these initiatives seem particularly suited to the task of uncovering the links between education. First. with the exception of rate-ofreturn studies on school quality. health and family change. and the positive social changes of interest to development agencies.. 2000. Our understanding of the potential consequences of schooling could be much improved by knowing more about those aspects of individualsÕ skills that are enhanced by education. The human capital perspective implicit in much of the research on educational investments is inherently individualistic. the economic benefits to those educated later may be smaller than the benefits to those educated earlier. (1998) emphasize that ambiguities in the research on short-term national-level benefits of education may be attributable. widely available measures of education systems and schools are insufficient for revealing critical mechanisms that link education to various outcomes. assuming that education will offer the same enabling capacities to individuals regardless of the contexts in which they function.348 WORLD DEVELOPMENT In areas where research is inconclusive or contradictory. Hence. and an important caveat even in areas where consistent results have emerged. 1997) is an important step toward developing international standards for measuring productivity-related skills. Within countries. linkages between education and the labor market. Many of the available studies in this realm involve cross-sectional research. Sylwester (2002) showed that public education expenditures were associated with a subsequent decrease in the level of income inequality. 12. Correlations between per capita GNP and enrollment ratios derived from the same data provide further illustration: the correlation of per capita GNP with the primary gross enrollment ratio is weak and marginally significant (0. N = 131. 10. 0. Sylwester (2000) found that educational expenditures were negatively related with contemporaneous growth. There are. Behrman and Rosenzweig (2002) suggest that the observed positive relationship between the schooling of mothers and their children is substantially biased upward due to correlations between schooling and heritable ‘‘ability’’ and assortative mating. important exceptions to this trend. The health benefits of education may be more evident in societies where the sanitation infrastructure is weak. The studies referenced here include a mix of cross-sectional and longitudinal designs. There are additional factors that suggest other labor market disadvantages for children currently excluded from the school system. LevineÕs (2004) review cites studies in Egypt and Tanzania showing that out-of-school children were less healthy than children enrolled in school. an increase in womenÕs schooling would not be beneficial in terms of the schooling of children. . These findings may not apply in developed settings.63. These examples emphasize that educational expansion should be viewed as one of many important elements in economic and social development.GLOBAL EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 349 others turning credentials into high-status. Reasonable forecasts of the consequences of further expansions intended to reach the worldÕs most disadvantaged populations need to consider the diverse social contexts in which these expansions will occur. Zhao (2004) has shown that returns to schooling in China have risen in recent years. 4. He argues that costs must be low enough that individuals have enough resources to forego income and attend school. 5. 9. While much research on education and national development has focused on the issue of growth. N = 107. while the correlations with secondary and tertiary gross enrollment ratios are strong and significant (0. where educational opportunities are relatively expanded. Poorer health may be one example. however. We present the results in Table 1 to illustrate temporal associations of education and various national outcomes. p = 0.00 for tertiary). p = 0.64. readers may find some designs more convincing than others. considerable evidence supports a different form of the credentialism argument: that educational credentials often serve to reproduce older forms of social inequality.07). 7. as discussed below. high-wage employment. then promoting public education can cause the distribution of income to become more skewed. an equally important aspect of national economic development is the distribution of income.00 for secondary. but that previous expenditures were positively related. 2000). Theoretical work in economics predicts that income inequality declines with support for public education (Glomm & Ravikumar. 8. Armenia and Turkmenistan both had surveys in 2000 but are excluded here due to implausible data. One challenge with this interdisciplinary approach is that different disciplines vary in their ideas about the kinds of research designs that demonstrate evidence of causal relationships.16. In a study using twin data from the United States. or less evident in societies with universal access to health care. as some estimates suggest that rural poverty accounts for nearly 63% of poverty worldwide (Khan. Welch (1970) credited changing technologies for a trend of rising education without falling rates of return to schooling in the United States. This table is not meant to imply that education alone causes the observed changes in the outcome variables. 11. 2. N = 121. 3. Psacharopoulos and Patrinos (2002) report increases in private returns to tertiary schooling. In addition. NOTES 1. However. macro and microlevel analyses. and studies that focus on changes over time. during a period of educational and economic expansion. If individuals are too poor to attend school. They conclude that in the United States. 6. 1992). p = 0. Studies suggest beneficial consequences of educational expansion for income distributions. In an empirical study of 50 countries. These issues have global significance. It is also likely that those currently excluded from schooling have less access to social networks that can be helpful in the labor market. 107. 1998.. The Journal of Political Economy. For example.. How is social mobility related to education policy in Latin America? A schooling gap regression analysis. Oni. sense of agency. American Sociological Review. the lack of restrictiveness in the franchise. In this measure. P. 928–946.. The four measures capture slightly different elements of democracy. Foster. each country is ranked on two sevenpoint scales according to the extent to which political rights and civil liberties are respected. J.. 16. N. 19. Population Studies. W. Geddes. 94–117. 1990. S. Boulder: Lynne Reinner. E. Behrman. J. Andersen. Williams & Collins.. C. p. Quarterly Journal of Economics. L. Human capital and the personal distribution of income: An analytical approach. Trends in educational equity of girls and women. & Rosenzweig. R. 13. Ross & Mirowsky. Sable. The measure designed by Zehra Arat (1991) captures four dimensions of democracy: degree of popular participation in political decision making. 481–493. DC: National Center for Education Statistics. 73. A.). (1993). the degree to which the extension of educational opportunities to girls translates to gender equity in the labor market varies across societies. 323–334. Opportunity foregone: Education in Brazil (pp. (1999). and economic growth. MA: NBER. (1983). 1995. Note that innovative behavior is not always demographically favorable. A third measure. M. American Economic Review. some scholars have warned that education may also confer more liberal attitudes toward high-risk behaviors and thus indirectly increase the incidence of HIV/AIDS (Krull. 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