UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY30 April 2015 (U//FOUO) “Muhammad Art Exhibit & Contest” in Texas on 3 May Likely to Prompt Violent Extremist Reaction Abroad; Violence Less Likely at Home (U) Scope (U//FOUO) This Joint Intelligence Bulletin (JIB) is intended to provide information on the potential for the “Muhammad Art Exhibit & Contest” on 3 May 2015 in Garland, Texas to result in threats of violent extremist attack plotting against the event, its participants, or in the Homeland more generally. This JIB is intended to support the activities of FBI and DHS to assist federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial counterterrorism and law enforcement officials, first responders, and private sector security partners in effectively deterring, preventing, preempting, or responding to terrorist attacks against the United States. IA-0173-15 (U) Warning: This document is UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (U//FOUO). It contains information that may be exempt from public release under the Freedom of Information Act (5 U.S.C. 552). It is to be controlled, stored, handled, transmitted, distributed, and disposed of in accordance with DHS policy relating to FOUO information and is not to be released to the public, the media, or other personnel who do not have a valid need to know without prior approval of an authorized DHS official. State and local homeland security officials may share this document with authorized critical infrastructure and key resource personnel and private sector security officials without further approval from DHS. (U) This product contains US person information that has been deemed necessary for the intended recipient to understand, assess, or act on the information provided. It has been highlighted in this document with the label USPER and should be handled in accordance with the recipient's intelligence oversight and/or information handling procedures. UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (U) Overview (U//FOUO) On 3 May 2015 the “American Freedom Defense InitiativeUSPER” (AFDI) is sponsoring in Garland, Texas a “Muhammad Art Exhibit & Contest,” for the stated purpose of “defend[ing] free speech and not give[ing] in to violent intimidation.” The FBI and DHS assess this motivation refers to deadly violent extremist attacks over recent months on institutions or events perceived as defaming the Islamic prophet, Muhammad. Although there is no specific, credible intelligence concerning threats to the event thus far, we assess that this event carries the risk of being targeted by violent extremists because past events involving the alleged defamation of Islam and the prophet, Muhammad, have resulted in threats or overt acts of violence overseas, to include threats against both artists and publishers. » (U//FOUO) In January 2015, an attack likely approved by al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) killed 12 persons at the offices of Charlie Hebdo, a satirical magazine in Paris, France that has several times shown depictions of the prophet, Muhammad. » (U//FOUO) In February 2015, a violent extremist conducted a small arms attack against a free speech forum being held at a café in Copenhagen, Denmark, which featured Swedish cartoon artist Lars Vilks, who has drawn cartoons of the prophet, Muhammad. (U) Event Background (U//FOUO) The AFDI website reports more than 350 contest entries were received by the 4 April 2015 deadline from around the world. Due to the large response, the organizers called for voting to decide on the recipient of a $2,500 People’s Choice Award, in addition to the $10,000 grand prize winner who will be selected by a panel of judges. Winners of the People’s Choice Award and the grand prize will be announced publicly at the 3 May 2015 event. Overall, contest artwork, done in a variety of media, is similar in tone to previously published cartoons, such as those published by Charlie Hebdo and Vilks. (U//FOUO) The contest website displays the artwork; although entrants must provide actual names to enter the contest, they may choose whether their full names will be displayed on the Web site. Per contest rules, AFDI also reserves the right to further publish the names and likenesses of artists for publicity purposes. (U//FOUO) Contest Could Lead to Near and Long Term Threats from a Variety of Extremists (U//FOUO) Public figures, such as the contest’s keynote speaker, Dutch Parliamentarian Geert Wilders, and the organizers of the event likely understand that their public positions may make them a desirable target for violent extremists, and AQAP has specifically called for the killing of Wilders in the past. Nonetheless, FBI and DHS assess that some contest participants who submitted depictions of the prophet, Muhammad, may be unaware of potential threats to their lives by violent Islamist extremists, or that previous calls for such drawings have resulted in threats against both artists and publishers. Contact information for the artists can likely easily be researched on the Internet and distributed to violent extremists to encourage attacks against these artists. UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Page 2 of 5 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY » (U//FOUO) Online supporters of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and al-Qa‘ida affiliate al-Shabaab have posted links to the contest announcement on Twitter, urging retaliation, including unspecified lone offender attacks.* » (U//FOUO) A Seattle cartoonist called online in April 2010 for an “Everybody Draw Muhammad Day.” Days later, the cartoonist received numerous death threats, and Anwar al-Aulaqi––now deceased director of Western operations for AQAP––issued a religious decree stating that the cartoonist was a “prime target” for execution. The cartoonist, along with Vilks, Wilders, and Charlie Hebdo editor Stephane Charbonnier, was included on AQAP’s suggested list of targets in several issues of AQAP’s English-language magazine, Inspire. As a result, the cartoonist changed her identity, moved from her residence at the advisement of the FBI, and has been in hiding ever since. » (U//FOUO) There is no identified domestic violent extremist threat involving the event at this time. (U) Outlook (U//FOUO) Although past events involving the alleged defamation of Islam and the prophet, Muhammad, have resulted in threats or overt acts of violence overseas, we have not yet seen such violence in the United States. The most frequent reaction among US-based homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) is discussion and verbal disapproval via online communication platforms, including websites with violent extremist content and social media sites.† We assess it is unlikely that any one event perceived to defame Islam would alone mobilize HVEs to violence; however, such events are incorporated into violent extremist messaging and narratives involving Western persecution of Muslims, which we do assess overall to contribute to radicalization to violence.‡ US-based HVEs remain largely unconnected to each other, and their behaviors are often highly individualized, impeding our ability to predict their reactions with a great deal of confidence. We also judge US-based HVEs and violent extremists in other Western nations who are skilled in information technology have the capability to carry out a cyber-intrusion attack against organizations or individuals perceived to be defaming Islam. (U//FOUO) The FBI and DHS define a lone offender as an individual motivated by one or more violent extremist ideologies who, operating alone, supports or engages in acts of violence in furtherance of that ideology or ideologies that may involve influence from a larger terrorist organization or a foreign actor. † (U//FOUO) The FBI and DHS define an HVE as a person of any citizenship who has lived and/or operated primarily in the United States or its territories who advocates, is engaged in, or is preparing to engage in ideologically motivated terrorist activities (including providing support to terrorism) in furtherance of political or social objectives promoted by a foreign terrorist organization, but is acting independently of direction by a foreign terrorist organization. HVEs are distinct from traditional domestic terrorists who engage in unlawful acts of violence to intimidate civilian populations or attempt to influence domestic policy without direction from or influence from a foreign actor. ‡ (U//FOUO) The FBI and DHS define radicalization as the process through which an individual changes from a non-violent belief system to a belief system that includes the willingness to actively advocate, facilitate, or use unlawful violence as a method to effect societal or political change. * UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Page 3 of 5 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (U//FOUO) We assess that ongoing, comprehensive collection efforts on terrorist threats and the local security posture increase the likelihood of detecting and identifying US-based HVEs and other US-based violent extremists who may be targeting this event and its participants. We nevertheless urge vigilance by security officials for indications of preoperational activity claiming linkage to the event or threatening participants, or American Muslims and their places of worship. (U) Behaviors Associated with Individual Radicalization and Mobilization to Violence (U//FOUO) Some observed activities that may be suspicious include constitutionally protected activity. These activities should not be reported absent of articulable facts and circumstances that support the source agency’s suspicion that the observed behavior is not innocent, but rather reasonably indicative of criminal activity associated with terrorism, such as indications— including indicators not necessarily assumed present in this case—of material support to terrorist groups, indications of violent extremist radicalization or mobilization, and indications of travel overseas to engage in violence. » (U//FOUO) New or increased advocacy of violence including providing material support or recruiting others to commit criminal acts; » (U//FOUO) Interpreting religious texts in a manner designed to convince prospective recruits that violence is religiously sanctioned; » (U//FOUO) Showing violent extremist messaging produced by al-Qa‘ida, its affiliates, and inspired groups to prospective recruits to encourage them to engage in violence; » (U//FOUO) Encouraging visits to violent extremist websites highlighting perceived Western atrocities against Muslims to encourage prospective recruits to encourage them to engage in violence; » (U//FOUO) Consumption and sharing of media glorifying violent extremist acts; » (U//FOUO) Internet research for target selection, acquisition of technical capabilities, planning, logistics; » (U//FOUO) Active participation in violent extremist web forums by encouraging violence or other material support to terrorism; » (U//FOUO) Active role/increased participation within a cluster of violent extremist individuals, live or virtual; » (U//FOUO) Adoption of new lifestyles, changes in appearance, and segregation from normal peer and family groups in association with advocating criminal or terrorist activity; and » (U//FOUO) Communicating with known or suspected homegrown or foreign-based violent extremists using e-mail or social media platforms. UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Page 4 of 5 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (U) Report Suspicious Activity (U) To report suspicious activity, law enforcement, Fire-EMS, private security personnel, and emergency managers should follow established protocols; all other personnel should call 911 or contact local law enforcement. Suspicious activity reports (SARs) will be forwarded to the appropriate fusion center and FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force for further action. For more information on the Nationwide SAR Initiative, visit http://nsi.ncirc.gov/resources.aspx. (U) Administrative Note: Law Enforcement Response (U//FOUO) Information contained in this intelligence bulletin is for official use only. No portion of this bulletin should be released to the media, the general public, or over nonsecure Internet servers. Release of this material could adversely affect or jeopardize investigative activities. 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