EconomicSurvey of Pakistan 2009-10 published by accountancy accountancy.com.pk This page left intentionally blank. State of the Economy Executive summary A measure of macroeconomic stability achieved over the past two years has kindled a moderate recovery in the economy, despite one of the most serious economic crises in the country’s recent history. The economy grew by a provisional 4.1% in the outgoing year, after a modest growth of 1.2% in 2008‐09. However, the recovery is still fragile and the stabilization needs to be consolidated so that the gains over the past two difficult years are not lost. First, the durability of the economic turnaround is far from assured given the significant challenges the economy faces. Second, not all sectors of the economy or regions of the country appear to have participated so far in the modest upturn. Finally, in order to meet the employment aspirations of the large number of entrants to the labour force, a higher sustained growth rate will need to be achieved in the medium‐term. A combination of limited fiscal space and rising spending, debt, and inflationary pressures, significantly reduce the government’s ability to spend in order to stimulate the economy. Under the circumstances, the prudent course for policy in the near term remains the pursuit of greater fiscal consolidation through domestic resource mobilization, in conjunction with reducing the size of government, and improving the efficiency of public sector spending. The macroeconomic context remains difficult in the near term with continuing challenges. The global economy remains in turmoil, with uncertain prospects for demand for Pakistan’s exports. In addition, the energy and water shortage, and the internal security situation, could constrain growth in 2010‐11. However, the economy could benefit from large initial productivity gains as capacity utilization begins to increase from a low base. For the longer term, however, without a resolution of Pakistan’s perennial structural challenges, such as raising the level of domestic resource mobilization or promoting higher productivity in the economy, growth and investment will continue to be constrained, and the growth prospects volatile. Growth Despite severe challenges, the economy has shown resilience in the outgoing year. Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2009/10, on an inflation‐adjusted basis, has been recorded at a provisional 4.1%. This compares with GDP growth of 1.2% (revised) in the previous year. For the outgoing year, the Agriculture sector grew an estimated 2%, against a target of 3.8%, and previous year’s growth rate of 4%. While the Crops sub‐sector declined 0.4% over the previous year, Livestock posted a healthy rise of 4.1%. Industrial output expanded by 4.9%, with Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) posting a 4.4% rate of growth. The Services sector grew 4.6%, as compared to 1.6% in 2008‐09. i published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Economic Survey 2009‐10 Overall, the Commodity Producing Sectors are estimated to have expanded at a 3.6% pace, which represents a significant turnaround from the anaemic growth rates of the previous two fiscal years. The stronger pace of economic growth in 2009‐10 has occurred on the back of several favourable developments, which have included: x Substantial transfers to the rural sector over the past two years via the government’s crop support price policies, which, combined with higher worker remittances, have sustained aggregate demand in the economy; x A larger‐than‐expected cotton output, which offset the moderately negative impact on the wheat crop caused by a delay in seasonal rains; x An ongoing improvement in external demand for Pakistan’s exports, mainly textiles; The revision of previous year’s growth rate, a downward adjustment from a provisional 2% to a revised 1.2%, has also provided support to the headline growth rate for the current year, with the impact estimated at over one percentage point. The more positive outturn for economic growth in the current fiscal year comes in spite of costs the economy has had to bear in the last two years on account of the internal security situation, combined with the severe energy shortfall. The latter is estimated to have reduced overall GDP growth by approximately 2.0% in 2009‐10. Despite the security situation, overall military spending as a proportion of budget outlays has declined. Another focus has been the rehabilitation of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and reconstruction of affected areas. It is pertinent to note that during 2009, Pakistan had one of the largest IDPs population in the world, with an estimated over 3 million people displaced from their homes in Swat, Bajaur, Malakand division, and South Waziristan agency (SWA). The timely availability of water for agriculture was also significantly lower this year, continuing a secular trend of decline over the past several years. Water availability has now become one of Pakistan’s top inter‐generational policy and development concerns. A shortfall in the inflow of external assistance, including from the Friends of Pakistan consortium, combined with delays in the release of refunds from the Coalition Support Fund, led to heavy borrowing by the government in domestic credit markets, leading to valid fears of crowding out of credit to the private sector. Signs of a turnaround in segments of the economy notwithstanding, there are continuing areas of concern and reasons for caution. The recovery in economic growth is fragile, and will remain so till the weaknesses in the macroeconomic framework are forcefully addressed. In order to effectively provide sustainable employment opportunities for the young entrants to the labour force, a higher growth will be needed. In fact, according to the latest Labour Force Survey (for 2008‐09), the unemployment rate has increased to 5.5% (from 5.2%), largely due to the increase in urban unemployment to 7.1% (from 6.3%). Furthermore, the observed trend of improvement in the headline growth rate is likely to have been restricted to the more formal, and hence larger‐scale, part of the economy, given its relatively greater insulation from energy shortages. The small and microenterprise sectors, which employ the bulk of the non‐agricultural labour force, and are less well captured in the national accounts data, are much less ii published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) State of the Economy insulated, and therefore significantly more vulnerable to shocks such as wide spread disruptions to energy supply. It is important to address the structural constraints to long run sustainable growth. This will also provide greater visibility to markets and investors with regard to Pakistan’s economic prospects in the medium to longer term, and will be a key catalyst for higher private capital inflows and investment. Given the long standing constraints under which macroeconomic policy is operating, with high inflation, low domestic resource mobilization, and rising debt servicing pressure, it is clear that Pakistan cannot afford an expansionary policy stance at this stage. A policy stimulus, without the requisite reserves or fiscal space, will only worsen macroeconomic imbalances. On the other hand, greater fiscal consolidation can have longer lasting and more far‐reaching effects on growth, by reducing the crowding out of the private sector through public sector borrowing leading to lower interest rates. Investment At current market prices, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) has been estimated to have declined 0.6%, after recording a 5.5% increase in 2008‐09. A decline in fixed investment by the private sector has accounted for the overall change, with an estimated contraction of 3.5% for the year. The bulk of the decline has occurred in Electricity & Gas, Large Scale Manufacturing, Transport & Communication, and Finance & Insurance. Clearly, this development is not salutary for the long run prospects of the economy. However, given the challenging circumstances in which the economy had to operate during 2009‐10, it is not surprising that the private investment response has remained subdued. A substantial decline in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows for the period also contributed to the decline in fixed investment in 2009‐10. FDI accounts for a high share of gross fixed investment in Pakistan, with a share of close to 20 percent. The decline in FDI inflows was in line with the steep drop in global flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which fell 32 percent in 2009 according to estimates of the International Institute of Finance (IIF). For the period July to April 2009‐10, FDI totalled US$ 1.8 billion as compared to US$ 3.2 billion in the same period of FY09. This represents a decline of 45 percent. A large part of the decline in FDI for the period was recorded under Telecommunications (a net decline of US$ 607 million), and Financial Services (a fall of US$ 548 million). Combined, the decline in these two sectors, which related to a few “lumpy” transactions last year, amounted to 81 percent of the overall reduction in FDI in 2009‐10. Investment levels in some sectors remained healthy, including in Oil and Gas exploration (FDI of US$ 605 million), Communications (US$ 222 million), Transport (US$ 104 million), Construction (US$ 86 million), and Paper and Pulp (US$ 81 million). Despite a steep decline, inflow of FDI into Financial Services was recorded at US$ 133 million for the period. A worrying development was the large net disinvestment recorded under the IT Services sector for the year (amounting to US$ 95 million). Overall, out of the major industry categories, 12 recorded higher FDI for the period, while 24 industries witnessed a net reduction in FDI inflow. Stabilization Pakistan has achieved impressive initial gains in restoring macroeconomic stability in the aftermath of the balance of payments crisis of 2008. As a result of determined policy effort: iii published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Economic Survey 2009‐10 x The fiscal deficit was reduced to 5.2 percent of GDP in 2008/09, from 7.6 percent of GDP in 2007/08, a fiscal adjustment of 2.4 percent of GDP. For 2009/10, the fiscal deficit is aimed to be kept in check at 5.1 percent of GDP, despite the absorption of unprecedented security‐related spending. x The external current account deficit was contained to 5.6 percent of GDP (US$ 9.3 billion) in 2008/09, from a high of 8.3 percent of GDP in 2007/08 (US$ 13.9 billion). The current account deficit is expected to decline to under 3 percent of GDP in the current year; x Foreign exchange reserves have been rebuilt to nearly US$ 15 billion, from their low of under US$ 6 billion in October 2008, though much of the accumulation is due to releases from the IMF; x Inflation declined from 25% in October 2008, to a recent low of 8.9% in October 2009, though it has accelerated sharply of recent and is showing persistence; x International credit rating agencies upgraded Pakistan (from CCC+ to B‐ by S&P, while Moody’s revised its outlook to Stable [August 2009]); However, challenges in consolidating these early gains have emerged, with inflation in the economy reappearing, and fiscal pressures increasing. Inflation After a period of containment, inflationary pressure has intensified since October last year on account of a number of adverse developments, including the washing out of the base effect from the previous year and a sharp spike in global commodity prices that has persisted since 2008 and which is exerting strong upward pressure on domestic prices. To some extent, this also reflects the excessive public sector borrowing, as well as adjustments in public utility prices, generated by losses in the public sector enterprises, especially electricity. As a result, after easing to a recent low of 8.9% in October 2009, overall CPI inflation accelerated to 13.3% year‐on‐year in April, with food inflation at 14.5% and non‐food inflation at 12.2%. Core inflation, as measured by the rate of increase in prices of non‐food, non‐energy components of the CPI basket, registered an increase of 10.6% year‐on‐year. On a period‐average basis, overall inflation was recorded at 11.5% for July to April. The State Bank of Pakistan expects the average CPI inflation for the current fiscal year to remain close to 12%. The refuelling of inflationary pressure is evident in all price indices, with the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) rising steeply, from, from 0.3% in August 2009 to 22% in April 2010. Similarly, the Sensitive Price Index (SPI) has recorded a 16.7% year‐on‐year increase for April, versus 6.7% in October 2009. The resurgence of inflation is not restricted to Pakistan and is both a global as well as a regional phenomenon, though with varying orders of magnitude. Global food inflation, as proxied by the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organisation’s FAO Food Prices Index, had risen to 20 percent year‐on‐year in January 2010, before declining to 13 percent in April, while India’s food price inflation rose over 19 percent year‐on‐year in December 2009, before settling at 17 percent in March. By comparison, year‐ on‐year CPI food inflation in Pakistan was recorded at 14.5 percent in April. In terms of mitigation strategies, policy options have been limited for much of the current fiscal year in the backdrop of high – and rising – international commodity prices. Imports under these conditions are not likely to dampen domestic prices, except to the extent of excess pressure caused by domestic iv published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) State of the Economy shortfalls, if any. Improved availability through better administrative measures against hoarding is likely to have some effect at the margin. This will have a greater effect, however, if employed in conjunction with close vigilance of use of bank credit for commodity purchases by the private sector. The revival of the price magistracy system can also be an effective “localized” tool in the fight against price inflation in essential food items. In the longer run, improvements in agricultural productivity hold the key to mitigation of food price inflation. So far, governments have followed an extensive farming policy, using the crop support price as an intervention tool. However, there are clear limitations to this strategy, including the diminishing responsiveness of output to price incentives, the impact on the general price level, and the implication for recourse to budgetary resources, especially in the case of wheat. A shift to more intensive agriculture is the need of the hour, with returns to farmers linked to better yields (volume‐based) rather than to a price‐based mechanism of support. A further critical element in the containment of price pressure in the economy will be continuation of prudent macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy, which is essential to prevent a spill‐over from food and energy components of the CPI to the broader household consumption basket – which to some extent is inevitable under the circumstances. Demand management is still an essential component of the overall policy mix to prevent an entrenchment of inflationary expectations. Segments of society vulnerable to the effects of policy‐induced price adjustments will require wider – but better targeted – coverage of social safety nets. Poverty & Income Inequality In the absence of an official recent poverty survey, it is unclear what the distributional effects of developments in the global as well as domestic economic landscape over the past two years have been. The reduction in inflation from 25 percent to single digits represents the most significant benefit of the stabilization as far as the poor are concerned. Yet greater unemployment and the fairly steep adjustment in administered prices of food and energy, has, in all likelihood, adversely impacted vulnerable segments of the population, especially those on low and fixed incomes, and in the urban areas. On the other hand, a substantial rise in inflows of worker remittances, partly in response to a government policy initiative, combined with unprecedented transfers in 2008 and 2009 to the rural economy under the government’s crop procurement program, are likely to have provided significant support to large segments of the population. Cash transfers under the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP), amounting to an estimated Rs. 35 billion in 2009‐10, are very likely to have been an additional source of support to those in need. Hence, on the whole, a more careful examination of the distributional impact of recent developments is required, in order to design better‐targeted policy responses. Public finances Pakistan’s public finances have come under increasing strain over the past two years due, in large part, to substantial outlays on electricity subsidies. Despite a sharp upward adjustment over the past two years, amounting to over 60% for some consumer categories, electricity tariffs have still not reached v published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Second. and addressing concerns with rent seeking and governance in the FBR. Catering to a rapidly rising population. Second.com. however. 2010. in vi published by Accountancy (www. this is due to two adverse developments in operation for much of the last over one year. the adverse shift in the energy generation mix towards fuel oil. potentially “game‐changing”. During the outgoing year. As a percent of GDP. as compared to the corresponding period of 2008‐09. has been accompanied by a near‐doubling of international oil prices between January 2009 and April 2010. in a major policy effort to broaden the tax base. with verifiable and timely refunds. Lower than budgeted external assistance pledges also compounded difficulties in fiscal management during 2009‐10. the revised outturn in 2009‐10 is projected to be 5. as well as horizontal (between Provinces) distribution. Key elements include concerns about the lacunae introduced in the legal framework over time. First. the Seventh National Finance Commission (NFC) Award was successfully concluded after a lapse of 19 years.7 percent of GDP. however. easing the budget constraint assumes even greater urgency. In addition. Addressing two decades of under‐investment in critical sectors of the economy – social sector. modernization of the tax administration to ensure arms length dealing with taxpayers. Effective from July 1. Nonetheless.Economic Survey 2009‐10 cost‐recovery for the public sector utilities. the 7th NFC Award will more than double the quantum of annual resource transfer to the Provinces. It is estimated that the move to VAT could yield up to 3 percent of GDP in additional revenue over a period of three to five years. After a sluggish start.9% of GDP. the interim period is likely to cause a degree of strain on federal finances. developments in public finances.pk) . With the devolution of expenditures to the Provinces under the 18th Constitutional Amendment set to become effective from 2011‐12. broad‐based and modernized system of the GST (leading to a Value Added Tax (VAT)) as originally intended in 1990. The continued haemorrhaging of fiscal resources by the power sector is also partly a result of unchanged end‐user tariffs between 2003 and 2007. In large part. However this was obviated by weak credit demand from the private sector. the developments outlined above are likely to result in a moderate over‐shoot of the budgeted target for the overall fiscal deficit. including the increasing need for maintenance of existing capital stock – cannot be postponed for much longer and will require vast resources. It led to sharp cutbacks in outlays for the public sector development program. All told. there was an unintended consequence: interest rates moved upward as a result. which had been pitched at an unrealistically high level. although the estimates for the coming year by leading tax experts are appropriately modest at around 0.accountancy. the basis was laid for two fundamental. water reservoirs. with a fundamental shift in the basis for determining the vertical (from Centre to Provinces). First. as well as improved liquidity in the banking system. Looking ahead. tax collection has risen nearly 14% for July to April 2009‐2010. physical infrastructure. legislation was laid before the national as well as provincial assemblies to introduce an integrated. lower rainfall reduced power generation from the dams. The heavy recourse by the government to borrowing from the domestic banking system led to fears of crowding out of the private sector. Against a budgeted 4. tax collection remains low. and despite a difficult economic situation.1%. This requires needed amendments to the law at both national and provincial levels. 5% of GDP. The new development strategy seeks to foster sustainable and more equitable growth by means of structural improvements in the productive sectors of Pakistan’s economy. will further add to the resource requirements. To this effect. Economic reform Cognizant of the limitations of the growth strategy followed in the past. the Centre will also devolve some major functions/expenditure heads to the sub‐national governments in line with the provisions of the vii published by Accountancy (www. Pakistan Steel Mills. which has inevitably produced boom‐bust cycles followed by a balance of payments crisis. and provincial programmes such as the Sasti Roti scheme. and it works in conjunction with other safety nets such as Bait‐ul‐Maal. x Under reform of the power sector. NHA) with a view to stop leakages caused by annual losses amounting to approximately 1. other measures such as improving tax administration and reinstating tax audits have been taken. the government has launched the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP). USC. adjustment in tariff for changes in fuel prices for power generation has been made automatic. These perennial weak links have remained unaddressed in the past. An allocation of Rs 70 billion has been made in the Federal Budget 2009‐10.5 million poor and vulnerable Households in Pakistan with a cash transfer of Rs 1. In conjunction with the higher resource transfer to the provinces. while simultaneously moving to a full cost‐recovery tariff for the power utilities. 2010 has been presented to Parliament. involving a broad range of policy actions across sectors. This Award greatly augments the quantum of resource transfer from the Centre to the Provinces. electricity tariffs have been raised between 40‐55% in less than two years. The cumulative effect of these policy measures is expected to be an increase of Pakistan’s Tax‐to‐GDP ratio to 13 percent by 2013 (from 8. PEPCO. x The government successfully concluded the Seventh National Finance Commission (NFC) Award – only the fourth in Pakistan’s entire history. weak incentives for improvements in provincial finances. Zakat Fund. x In addition. x A Cabinet Committee on Restructuring (CCoR) has been formed to restructure key Public Sector Enterprises (PIA. leakages in public sector expenditure.9 percent in 2008‐09). with the aim of targeting 5. and. The size of BISP makes it the largest social protection scheme in the country’s history. Railways.com. The current status of some of the important reforms is as under: x Raising the Tax‐to‐GDP ratio is a key pillar of the government’s economic strategy. in an effort to reduce the level of subsidies absorbed in the budget. and include a low.accountancy. ratio of tax collection to GDP. TCP. which could possibly have been weakened further by the new NFC award. The eventual aim is to turnaround these PSEs into profitable.pk) . the government has embarked on a fundamental change of the development paradigm.State of the Economy conjunction with the need to put in place targeted social safety nets.000 per month to each. self‐sustaining ventures under Public‐Private Partnership mode. a proposed law to implement a broad‐based Value Added Tax (VAT) with minimal exemptions from July 1. x Under Social Protection. and declining. and the first for the last 19 years. Meeting the expected expenditure requirements in the medium term will require redressing the fundamental weaknesses in the structure of public finances. Under a new Act of parliament. macroeconomic stabilization measures taken by the government also significantly contributed to overall improvement in the external sector of Pakistan. viii published by Accountancy (www.160 billion as of end‐March 2010. and a severe energy crisis faced by Pakistan’s economy. public debt is equivalent to 56% of GDP. At this level. This recovery was mainly contributed by a sharp narrowing of the current account deficit which more than offset the declining financial account surplus during the period. Of the total. Domestic debt rose 22% in annualized terms during July to March.8 percent of GDP for the full fiscal year.com. with the government forced to borrow from the onshore credit markets in the absence of meaningful flows of external assistance. Public debt Pakistan’s total public debt stood at an estimated Rs. However. and a continued increase in worker remittances. and 379% of total budgeted revenue for the year. Another source of increase has been the depreciation of the Rupee against the US dollar between July 2009 and March 2010. barring disbursements under the IMF loan. External account Amid still‐difficult global economic conditions.4%. which are expected to reach 4. it appears for now that. A large part of the recent increase in remittances. measured either as a percent of GDP or of total revenue. If so. the external sector witnessed an overall improvement during 2009‐10.3 billion in ten months of the current fiscal year (July‐April). the deflation in import payments will outweigh the other factors. In addition.pk) . this could insulate the external account from pressure in the near term.4 billion in July‐April 2008‐09 to US$ 7. is the collapse in global commodity prices induced by the Eurozone‐wide contagion from the ongoing Greek debt crisis. Since the start of the difficulties in Greece earlier in 2010. especially if the fall out is not contained. The external current account deficit is expected to contract to around 2.Economic Survey 2009‐10 1973 Constitution. Worker remittances have increased from US$ 6. has emanated from a policy initiative of the government in early 2009 called the Pakistan Remittance Initiative (PRI). the net annual addition to the debt stock has been fairly rapid over the past 4 years. The bulk of the increase in public debt in the first nine months of 2009‐10 has been recorded under higher‐cost domestic debt. in immediate terms at least. An added factor that is likely to extend support to the external account in the months ahead. which appears to be secular in nature. On balance. The weaker Rupee added 17% to public debt in the first nine months of the year. does not depict a significant deterioration in the debt dynamic. large costs to exports imposed by the war on terror. and spreads to other regions. With the potential for formalising the remittances market estimated between US$ 16 billion (World Bank) and US$ 21 billion (PRI) annually. While the relative debt burden. while foreign currency‐denominated debt was the equivalent of 25% of GDP. developments on this front could potentially also impact remittances and exports. as evident from Figure 2.accountancy.8 percent of GDP in the outgoing year. This large improvement is mainly on the back of a steep decline in imports for much of the year. Rupee‐denominated debt amounted to 31% of GDP. Public debt has risen rapidly since 2005‐06. further success on this front can have far‐reaching positive effects on stability of Pakistan’s balance of payments in the years ahead. international oil prices have fallen by over 11 percent. 8. amounting to 4. improving exports as world demand is gradually restored. and possibly for much of 2010‐11. such as borrowing by state‐owned enterprises for commodity operations against an explicit government guarantee. instead of around 10%. that had not been budgeted for. when economic conditions were extremely favourable for a breakthrough in broadening the tax base. x Overall. Protecting the ix published by Accountancy (www. by locking into longer tenure debt such as the five‐ and ten‐year Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs). interest payments were budgeted at 4. the cumulative depreciation of over 25% of the Rupee against the US Dollar is estimated to have increased the public debt stock by approximately Rs.accountancy. Budget estimates of interest and principal repayment of foreign loans and credits during 2009‐10 amounted to nearly 40% of total revenue.4% of GDP for 2009‐10. and on the other. in the wake of the global financial crisis. while total debt servicing including repayment of foreign loans and credits.8% of GDP. the reversal of the favourable debt dynamic that had been set in motion earlier. x A sharp reduction in non‐debt creating inflows. such as FDI. the public debt would have been around 44% of GDP currently. a lower inflow of external assistance. was budgeted at 5. In the context of a rising stock of public debt. which forced the government to higher‐cost domestic borrowing. x The augmented access to IMF resources provided to Pakistan in the form of the Stand By Arrangement (SBA) signed in November 2008. the central bank).e. provided the current path of reform is not abandoned. of which approximately US$ 7. while the remainder is shown under “monetary authorities” (i. the weak tax effort that has characterised Pakistan’s policy landscape for the last several decades. If Pakistan’s tax‐to‐GDP ratio had been a modest 13% since 2005. it is important to make the nexus between. or a total of 11% increase on this count alone over the past two years. It is important to note. however.3 billion. amounting to a total of US$ 11. x Lumpy repayment of maturing Defence Savings Certificates (DSCs) since 2007. 235 billion. The lower public debt stock would have translated into savings in interest payments since FY05. In terms of servicing of the public debt. or a full 12% of GDP lower. in line with international convention and past practice. only that portion of the IMF loan that has been used for deficit financing by the government is recorded under public debt. Pakistan has achieved fairly impressive early success in its efforts to stabilize the economy from a parlous state of affairs in the aftermath of the macroeconomic crisis of 2008.com. and approximately 30% of expenditure.pk) . In addition. on the one hand.3 billion has been disbursed. x Non‐recognition of large subsidy payments to the oil and power sector from prior years that were absorbed in the budget in 2007‐08 and 2008‐09. For 2007‐08 and 2008‐09. which would have represented a substantial expansion of the resource envelope the government is currently working with. x The inability of the government to take advantage of the historically low interest rate environment in the 2003 to 2007 period.State of the Economy The primary sources of accumulation in the public debt stock since 2005‐06 have been: x Currency translation losses on foreign exchange‐denominated debt. Outlook for the economy The medium term prospects for the economy are promising. that the figure for public debt does not include publicly‐guaranteed debt. com. could hurt Pakistan’s exports as well as remittances on the one hand. but could reduce international prices of key commodities such as oil. and an uncertain path of inflation in the near term. Greater realism about the prospects and accurate forecasts about resources and available funds for the development plans at each level of government is needed. • Larger‐than‐budgeted security related expenditures.Economic Survey 2009‐10 recovery is of paramount importance. overall. x But there are major risks to the growth and stabilization prospects if there is • Non‐implementation of the reform of the GST. on the other. if unchecked. • Failing to reform public sector enterprises. • Inadequate targeting of subsidies. For the longer term. including the power sector. significantly reduces policy space to stimulate the economy. and the government needs to keep a restrictive stance on public spending.pk) . efforts to meaningfully address Pakistan’s perennial structural challenges. Nonetheless. are more than likely to unlock Pakistan’s substantial economic potential. 2010). • This might affect the phased nature of fiscal devolution envisaged under the Eighteenth Constitutional amendment (to be effective from 2011‐12). x Bringing people to the centre stage. by appropriately designed employment and training programs to protect those in strife‐affected areas. or other significant tax broadening measures. A number of interlinked actions are needed in the coming year: x Checking inflation—this involves limiting borrowing by the government and the public sector. a turnaround in investor confidence can unleash large productivity gains even with low levels of fixed investment. The tipping of the world economy into a severe recession in the wake of the Euro‐zone debt crisis. such as the abysmally low tax/GDP ratio and low overall productivity in the economy. • Continued overhang of commodity financing debt stock. in the context of the front‐ loaded transfers to the provinces under the Seventh NFC Award (effective from July 1. threatens to constrict access to bank credit by the private sector. a developing debt overhang. and new entrants to the labour force. a combination of rising fiscal pressures. with no resolution of the energy circular debt issue. leading to a VAT. With relatively low levels of capacity utilization in the economy. • A deterioration of the internal security situation. x published by Accountancy (www.accountancy. while simultaneously increasing the interest rates in the economy. not all sectors of the economy or regions of the country appear to have participated so far in the modest upturn.1%. on an inflation‐adjusted basis.2% (revised) in the previous year. against a target of 3. In fact. the economy could benefit from large initial productivity gains as capacity utilization begins to increase from a low base.1 Global developments The outgoing year witnessed the making of a global recovery. threatens to disrupt the recovery process.8%. However.com. 1. and fears of wider contagion especially in the Euro‐zone. and is “fragile”.6 percent in 2009. the economy has shown resilience in the outgoing year. overall growth is still not robust enough. and a disturbed internal security situation. such as raising the level of domestic resource mobilization or promoting higher productivity in the economy. the recovery in the economy is less than secure. have so far pointed to a sharp rebound in the world economy. however. global trade is expected to pick up moderately in the current year.2 Pakistan Despite severe challenges.2 percent in 2010. Finally. The eruption of the Greek debt crisis since April. growth and investment will continue to be constrained. latest official estimates suggest a moderate increase in unemployment. The latest projections from the IMF are for world output to increase by 4. Early signs of recovery in both global output and trade have signalled improved prospects for Pakistan’s exports. the durability of the incipient economic turnaround is far from assured given the significant challenges the economy faces. and upgraded projections from the IMF. from the perspective of strong job creation. as noted in the World Economic Outlook for April.pk) . Leading indicators. the successful resolution of some of the critical challenges the economy has faced in 2009‐10. After the steepest fall since World War II. However.1% in the outgoing year. For the outgoing year. the Agriculture sector grew an estimated 2%. The macroeconomic context remains difficult in the near term. However. after a modest growth of 1. and 1 published by Accountancy (www. against an estimated contraction of 0. has been recorded at a provisional 4. This compares with GDP growth of 1.Growth and Investment 1 A measure of macroeconomic stability achieved over the past two years has kindled a moderate recovery in the economy. the recovery is “uneven” in terms of regions and countries.accountancy. however. In addition. despite one of the most serious economic crises in the country’s recent history. Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2009‐10. could lay the basis for higher growth in 2010‐11. For the longer term. Second. such as the energy and water shortage. First.2% in 2008‐09. The economy grew by a provisional 4. and the growth path unstable. without a resolution of Pakistan’s perennial structural challenges. 1. 7 ‐26.7 1. with Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) posting a 4.5 * Slaughtering is included under small scale sector Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics 1.6 7.5 3.7 3.6 6.9 7.4 ‐ Small Scale* 7.3 ‐5.6 4.6 3.5 6. Finance & Insurance 30. In 2009‐10.6% in 2008‐09. which represents a significant turnaround from the anaemic growth rates of the previous two fiscal years.2 2.7 5. What stands out from the Table is the consistently high contribution to recent growth.6 12. accounted for by the Services sector.5 8.5 3.8 5.2 ‐1.4 9.3 0.7 3. with Industry accounting for 30%.com. The Services sector grew 4.8 15. Ownership of Dwellings 3.6 10.8 ‐3.4 5. Storage & Communication 3.3 ‐1.6 10.0 6. with the previous five years.1 7.2 4.1 ‐7.5 7.6 ‐1. after late winter rains.9 8.0 ‐2.5 3.5 8.pk) .5 10 .8 8. Wholesale & Retail Trade 12.8 2.0 4.5 7.8 6.2 ‐ Minor Crops 1.0 2.4 ‐1.5 7.accountancy.5 ‐11.8 0.1: Growth Performance of Components of Gross National Product (Percent Growth at Constant Factor Cost) 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 COMMODITY PRODUCING SECTOR 9.5 4.6 4.9 14.1 13.7 1.9 6.8 4.6 1. sectoral contribution to growth was as follows: Services contributed 59% to overall growth in the economy for the year. Construction 18. Services 6. 2 published by Accountancy (www.6 30.2 2.6 1.0 ‐8.7 4.7 3.7 ‐3.2 3.4 ‐ Forestry ‐32.4% over the previous year.1%.4 4.5 3.6 6.0 2.1 4.9 ‐1.3 15.3 1.7 8.2 3. followed by Industry (30%).4 ‐0.9 7. While the Crops sub‐sector declined 0.7 4.6 20.3 ‐0.2 compares the structure of contribution to overall GDP growth for 2009‐10.2 4.6 9. GNP (fc) 8.4 ‐1.0 1.8 3.0 ‐ Major Crops 17.4% rate of growth.1 8. Overall.0 5.5 4.Economic Survey 2009‐10 previous year’s growth rate of 4%.4 5.5 11.9%.7 ‐23.4 SERVICES SECTOR 8.2 24.5 5. at 59%.8 42.2 15.0 4. and Social & Community Services (19%).7 ‐6.1 ‐13.1 6.5 6.1 7.9 11.2 ‐ Livestock 2.2 ‐ Large Scale 19. Mining & Quarrying 10.7 8.3 8. Table 1. GDP (fc) 9.6%.1 1.5 7.6 9. Manufacturing accounted for 23% of the outgoing year’s overall growth.5 0.1 ‐ Fishery 0. In terms of individual sectors. Agriculture 6. followed by Wholesale & Retail Trade (21%).0 ‐3.5 3. Manufacturing 15.1 ‐5.7 5.3 4. averaging 62% for the past six years. Livestock posted a healthy rise of 4.2‐a Contribution analysis For 2009‐10. & Defence 0.3 5. and Agriculture (11%).8 2.7 5.3 4.0 4.9 9.0 ‐3. Growth in Agriculture contributed 11% to headline GDP growth for the year. Electricity and Gas Distribution ‐5. the share of services in headline growth was roughly in line with its average.8 3.1 1. the Commodity Producing Sectors are estimated to have expanded at a 3. Industrial output expanded by 4. as compared to 1.4 7.0 10.6% pace. Table 1. The performance of the Agriculture sector was boosted by the weakening of the El Nino phenomenon. Transport.Public Admn. 8 percent of GDP for 2009‐10 from 5.accountancy.7 percent the previous year. Fig‐1: Composition of GDP Growth Consumption [ C ] Total Investment [ I ] Net Exports [ X ‐ M ] 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% ‐40% 2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics Reflecting the marginal decline in gross fixed investment for the year of ‐0.2: GDP growth: Sectoral contribution Sector 2004‐05 2005‐06 Agriculture 17% 24% Industry 34% 19% Manufacturing 30% 28% Services 49% 57% Real GDP (fc) 100% 100% 2006‐07 13% 34% 24% 53% 2007‐08 6% 10% 24% 85% 100% 100% 2008‐09 71% ‐41% ‐58% 70% 2009‐10 11% 30% 23% 59% (Percent) Avg FY05‐FY10 24% 14% 12% 62% 100% 100% 100% Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics Another important point to note is the consistently declining contribution of Manufacturing to the headline growth rate. with general government consumption expenditure accounting for the balance 15%. share of Net Exports was 4%. From 30% in 2004‐05. The stronger pace of economic growth in 2009‐10 has occurred on the back of several favourable developments. In terms of contribution by expenditure (i. the composition of GDP growth). Finally. reflecting the sharp reduction in the external current account deficit. the contribution of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was ‐1%. accounting for 96% of GDP growth in 2009‐10.Growth and Investment Table 1. The large weight of private consumption expenditure in GDP was reflected in its share of 81% in the growth for the outgoing year.com.pk) .e. which have included: 3 published by Accountancy (www. the manufacturing sector’s share in growth has declined to 23% for the outgoing year. Adjusting for the assumed contribution of Changes in stocks category.6%. the share of total investment was a nominal 1% in GDP growth. which is projected to decline to less than 2. consumption expenditure continued to account for a dominant share in growth. 0 ‐30.0 8. 4 published by Accountancy (www.0 6.com. Year‐on‐year change GDP Growth (in %) 10.0 ‐10.0 ‐20.0 30. combined with higher worker remittances.000 3. The revision of prior year’s growth rate.000 200 US$ Million 7.0 Growth in Cotton Production (in percent) • An ongoing improvement in external demand for Pakistan’s exports.000 4.0 4.000 8. Fig‐4: Cotton crop and GDP growth. as opposed to nine month data which is used at the time of preparing the provisional estimate.pk) .0 ‐40.0 50. Fig‐2: Gross Transfer (Rs bn) Fig‐3: Annual Remittances 250 9.accountancy.0 0.0 10. The impact on the growth rate for 2009‐10 is estimated at over one percentage point.0 0.000 0 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1. have sustained aggregate demand in the economy. mainly textiles.0 40.2%.0 20.000 2. which. based on firmer data for the full twelve months of 2008‐09. The cotton crop continues to exert a disproportionate impact on overall growth in the economy (Fig‐4).000 5. resulted in an adjustment in the real GDP growth from a provisional estimate of 2% to a revised 1.000 150 100 50 6.000 Source: Economic Adviser's Wing • 0 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 Jul‐Apr FY10 Sorce: State Bank of Pakistan A larger‐than‐expected cotton output.Economic Survey 2009‐10 • Substantial transfers to the rural sector over the past two years via the government’s crop support price policies. which offset the moderately negative impact on the wheat crop caused by a delay in seasonal rains.0 2. after recording a 5. this development is not salutary for the long run prospects of the economy. Large Scale Manufacturing.8 billion as compared to US$ 3.Growth and Investment 1. P : Provisional Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics Clearly. with an estimated contraction of 3. FDI accounts for a high share of gross fixed investment in Pakistan.2‐c Foreign Direct Investment In line with a sharp decline in global flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) has been estimated to have declined ‐0. However. including in Oil and Gas exploration (FDI of US$ 605 million). Private Sector 5.8 F : Final.2‐b Investment At current market prices. Large Scale ‐7. Transport & Communication.5% increase in 2008‐09. with a share of close to 20 percent.3 ‐3. which related to a few “lumpy” transactions last year. it is not surprising that the private investment response has remained subdued. R : Revised. and Paper and Pulp (US$ 81 million).5 Manufacturing 2.8 Transport & Communication ‐3. Investment levels in some sectors remained healthy. Public & General Government Sectors By Economic Activity (At Current Market Prices) % Change Sr # Sectors 2008‐09 R 2009‐10 P 2007‐08 F 2008‐09 R Total GFCF (A+B+C) 5.2 billion in the same period of FY09.6 C.9 i. FDI totalled US$ 1. the decline in these two sectors. given the challenging circumstances in which the economy had to operate during 2009‐10. and Finance & Insurance. inflow of FDI into Financial Services was recorded at US$ 133 million for the period.9 ‐14. A large part of the decline in FDI for the period was recorded under Telecommunications (a net decline of US$ 607 million).2 B.4 Electricity & Gas ‐4.3 ‐4. Combined . A worrying development was the large net disinvestment recorded under the IT Services sector for the 5 published by Accountancy (www. Communications (US$ 222 million). Transport (US$ 104 million). and Financial Services (a fall of US$ 548 million). amounted to 81 percent of the overall reduction in FDI in 2009‐10. Public Sector 3. This represents a decline of 45 percent. direct investment from this source saw a steep reduction in Pakistan.6%.7 9.4 ‐12. General Government 7.3 ‐18.6 A. The bulk of the decline has occurred in Electricity & Gas.pk) . A substantial decline in FDI inflow for the period also contributed to the decline in fixed investment in 2009‐10.9 2.accountancy. General Government GFCF is estimated to have risen 9.3: Gross Fixed Capital Formation In Private.5 ‐0. which fell 32 percent in 2009 according to estimates of the International Institute of Finance (IIF).com. Construction (US$ 86 million). Table 1. 1. Despite a steep decline.5% for the year.8%. For the period July to April 2009‐10. A decline in fixed investment by the private sector has accounted for the overall change. Firstly. while 24 industries witnessed a net reduction in FDI inflow. developments on the competitiveness front are not uniform throughout the economy. 1.16% in 2002. It is estimated that the cost to the economy of terrorism amounted to around 6 percent of GDP in 2009‐10. 1. the discussion on competitiveness and relative productivity in Pakistan’s economy needs to be nuanced. while new export products such as Halal meat and Jewellery in particular are growing rapidly. 1. resulting in 1.141 incidents of terrorism have occurred on Pakistan’s soil. rather than an endogenous underlying dynamic. As a result. to 0. a total of 8. Secondly.13% in 2008) while the share of South Asia as a whole has increased from 0. The second challenge emanated from the energy crisis. During 2009‐10. many Pakistani goods and services are finding it difficult to compete even in the domestic market. Apart from the “headline” numbers and statistics. A separate section is devoted to the impact on Pakistan of the global “war on terror”. which has declined over the past decade (from 0. The overall cost to the economy emanating from Pakistan’s fight against terror is discussed in the following section.0‐2. On the other hand.906 terror attacks were recorded in the country. Two severe challenges the economy had to navigate through in the outgoing year were the sharp rise in the number of incidents of terrorism across the country. Construction services are an example.2‐d International Competitiveness International competitiveness remains a key issue for the economy. resulting in 8.accountancy. This issue of competitiveness is also manifested in Pakistan’s share of world exports. underwent an intensification during the outgoing year. where Chinese companies have made large inroads. Overall. however.2‐e Constraints to Growth and Investment The incipient recovery in the economy has come about in the face of strong headwinds.835 deaths and 5. out of the major industry categories. due to factors detailed in a later chapter on the subject.875 6 published by Accountancy (www. which.pk) . A distinct intensification of the militants’ campaign occurred during 2009.2‐f Impact on Pakistan of the “War on Terror” Since 9/11. and improving it a major challenge. The global “war on terror” has been imposing a heavy cost on the economy since 2001. 12 recorded higher FDI for the period. which affected growth and investment.27% to 0.com. The scale of the challenge is manifested in Pakistan’s global ranking of 101 in the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI).5 percent of GDP occurred in 2009‐10 on account of the energy supply constraint. according to the National Crisis Management Cell. Pakistan has been at the epicentre of the global “War on Terror”.194 injuries.Economic Survey 2009‐10 year (amounting to US$ 95 million). a large part of the shift in relative market shares between Pakistan and other South Asian countries represents trade diversion on account of the effect on Pakistan of the difficult security situation it has been facing since 2002. with major urban centres in Pakistan being targeted. Ministry of Interior. Some segments of the Textile industry are doing well in international markets. a total of 1.34% over the same period. and the scale and nature of the attacks. it is estimated that a loss of approximately 2. Between 2002 and end‐ April 2010. it is officially estimated that Pakistan has been impacted to the extent of over US$ 43 billion between 2001 and 2010.pk) . Table 1. the fall out on Pakistan has also been immense. Ministry of Interior.000 Killed 8. Kurram and Orakzai). have been enormous.4 78 223 301 5.6 11. with the Pakistan army mobilizing and undertaking large scale military operations in the country’s North West (in Malakand/Swat. and injuries to a further 20.675 people. the negative effects on the economy have greatly increased.0 Source: Finance Division.052 7. Government of Pakistan 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10* Since 2007‐08.7 8.000 6. the cumulative effects of the campaign of terror unleashed in Pakistan and the country’s fight against militancy. and the Agencies of South Waziristan.0 83 278 361 6. Ministry of Interior Beyond statistics of human casualties.0 Cumulative 2005‐10 109 114 262 712 376 564 707 2. Khyber. In terms of the economic impact. As a front line state in the global “War on Terror”. Lives.5 43.Growth and Investment deaths of both civilians as well as personnel of law enforcement agencies (LEAs).000 2.000 Injured 10. 1 Source: National Crisis Management Cell.000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: National Crisis Management Cell. homes and incomes have been uprooted.accountancy. Mohmand. of incidents & human losses since 2002 12. while educational attainment for virtually a whole generation of school‐going age in the affected areas of NWFP and FATA has been jeopardized.4: Estimated Loss To Economy 2005‐2009 Rs billion Direct Costs Indirect Costs Total In US$ bn *: July‐April 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 67 192 259 4. and lately.1 Fig‐5: No. or severely undermined. Government of Pakistan 7 published by Accountancy (www.000 4. with the “war on terror” moving to a qualitatively different phase. Bajuar.com.340 484 678 969 3. 1 14.5 5.6 ‐5.4 percent of average GDP). while LSM output had expanded at an average of 12 percent.1 Private % GDP 10. Pakistan’s economy grew 1.3 34.4 4.0 13.5 12. to military and security‐related spending • Cutbacks in Public Sector Development Spending • Capital.5 percent of GDP. Ministry of Finance The export sector.0 ‐0.1 12.7 15. Economic Adviser’s Wing. Table 1.3 4. the change in the five year average‐to‐2009 trough works out to over 4.2 percent for the year.8 15.5 Exports (FBS) US$ bn 9.2 6. The five year annual average rate of growth of the economy was 6.8 4.4 15.1 Private Sector Credit % ‐0.2 11.Economic Survey 2009‐10 A brief list of the areas where the economy has been impacted includes the following: • Decline in GDP growth • Reduction in Investment • Lost Exports • Damaged/destroyed Physical Infrastructure • Loss of Employment and Incomes • Diversion of Budgetary Resources.5 17.9 ‐0.2 8.5 Large Scale Manufacturing % 10.8 15. 2004‐ [2009 vs 2008 5 Yr Avg] Real GDP Growth (fc) % 2. and Human Capital.2 ‐8.8 6.2 4.16 12.6 percent in the 2004‐2008 period.9 ‐20.7 25.0 19.8 4.0 3.1 1.5 20. growth and investment have stalled. Flight • Reduction in Capital + Wealth Stock • Exchange Rate Depreciation and Inflation As an illustration of the magnitude of the direct costs.9 13. resulting in a budgetary outlay of US$ 600 million for the current fiscal year alone for relief and rehabilitation of the IDP population. at its peak.9 4.6 5.5: Change in GDP growth. with large‐scale manufacturing (LSM) contracting ‐8. Cumulatively.8 Government % GDP 5.3 10.2 14.5 18.1 18.1 15.2 In addition.7 7. 8 published by Accountancy (www.2 11.39 16. Hence.5 3.8 ‐1.9 20. the loss of potential GDP for 2008 and 2009 is estimated at 7 percent (or equivalent to approximately US$ 11.5 20.20 9.3 16. the cost of the humanitarian crisis spawned by this conflict has been the displacement of over 3 million people.8 0.1 4.2 percent in 2008/09.4 Fixed Investment % GDP 15.31 14.1 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics.4 18.3 0.45 17.8 9. LSM. Largely as a result of the negative effects of the War on Terror.4 23. and a substantial employment base.3 0.8 34. has faced the brunt of the fall out.8 0. with a contribution of 12 percent to GDP.accountancy.7 3. The adverse impact on the export sector has manifested itself in the following ways: 2 Inclusive of original allocation and supplementary grants in budget 2009/10.2 3.5 9. Investment.9 1.com.0 5.2 ‐24.3 11.7 billion).8 5.0 4.5 0.5 0.7 4.14 11.4 18.8 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) US$bn 0.2 3.5 15.0 4.1 5.3 15 17.8 0. State Bank of Pakistan. the additional expenditure incurred on security‐ related and civil relief operations since July 2007 has amounted to an estimated US$ 4 billion (2.pk) . FDI and Exports 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 5 yr Avg: Chg. While the last available data pertains to fiscal year 2008‐09. • Loss of design and technological transfer. insurance and security costs • A reversal of trend towards greater economies of scale.0 ‐3.7 percent. 1. new investment and jobs. electricity consumption by the industrial sector has declined 8. since 2006‐07.0 7.000 MW at its peak. Cumulatively. • A loss of entrepreneurial capital due to capital flight and brain drain. Fig‐6: Electricity & Gas Consumption In Industrial Sector Annual Percent change 22.6 percent decline (Fig‐6).Growth and Investment • Loss of export orders / trade diversion to competitors. in most cases. Indeed. while gas consumption recorded a 2.accountancy.2‐g Cost of Energy Crisis Total energy consumption declined 5. widespread and. • “Permanent” removal of Pakistan from global production and marketing chain of international brands/large buying houses.0 Electricity 17.0 Gas 12.pk) .0 2.0 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 Source: HDIP 9 published by Accountancy (www.2 percent in 2009 versus 2008. severe. with consumption in the industrial sector falling by 11. the impact of more recent developments in the energy sector can be gauged from the widening deficit between electricity supply and demand during 2009‐10. and due to trade diversion it has suffered since ‘9/11’. • Increase in cost of doing business. • A substantial decline in price/unit value for products. Electricity use in the industrial sector fell by 6.5 percent. with the effects persisting for a fairly extended period. capital flight and brain drain. in sum. Pakistan is more than likely to face a significant degree of “permanent” welfare loss on account of diversion of development spending to the security budget. • Relegation to low value‐added commodity products. which crossed 5.com.0 ‐8. protracted. • Loss of income. • Higher shipment. The direct and indirect costs associated with being the front‐line state in the “war on terror” have been.2 percent. and in total employment (see Table 3.accountancy. and longer term. in conjunction with the rampant misuse of the Afghan Transit Trade (ATT) facility.8% in 2007‐08. A large part of the problem relates to the incentives framework in place. the above trends represent a worrying picture for scale and the level of formality.6).Economic Survey 2009‐10 The effect of lower energy availability is estimated at the equivalent of 2. This is manifested in the following ways: • A stagnant or declining share of the manufacturing sector in the economy.6: Manufacturing Companies by Paid Up Capital T No. • The reliance on an overvalued exchange rate as an instrument of policy. as a percentage of GDP. Conversely. from 72.3% in 2008‐09. structural constraints to overall growth continue to operate. it is clearly evident from the following dynamic at work: the share of informal labour in the economy has increased. 1. given China’s global dominance of manufactured products. especially in the low value added segment. Table 1. a set of complex. The expansion of the informal sector. of companies with paid‐up: > Rs 500 million 100 ‐ 500 million 50 ‐ 100 million < 50 million Total • • 1990 1995 2000 2005 1 35 23 587 646 13 12 11 532 568 6 16 13 269 304 2009 11 25 22 794 852 2 5 5 668 680 Source: SECP A faster increase in imports than exports.0‐2. • A decline in size and “scale”. especially between 2004 and 2008. has undermined the viability and competitiveness of the sector.1). • Pervasive mis‐declaration and under‐invoicing of imports. 10 published by Accountancy (www. which according to some estimates costs the economy anywhere between Rs 100 billion to Rs 300 billion in lost revenue alone. in the economy.pk) .com. formal sector employment has declined over the same period. particularly in Manufacturing (Table 1.5 percent of GDP during 2009‐10. as a percent of total. the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China since 2007 is unlikely to have helped. to 73. relative to the formal part of the economy. While this trend is suggested in a number of unreleased studies. inter‐related.48x in 2007 as a result. in new fixed investment. • Specifically for the viability of the domestic manufacturing sector.3 Longer Term Constraints: Improving Policy and Changing the Incentives Framework While the economy has had to navigate through difficult challenges in the short run. Put together. The Export‐Import ratio had declined to a low of 0. 8 35 5 2 5. and selectively in the export sector. have set perverse incentives for formality and hence.7: Incentives for de‐corporatization Tax Treatment: "Headline" Tax rate Workers Profit Participation Fund (WPPF) Workers Welfare Fund (WWF) Distribution out of profits (dividend)* Corporate Listed Unlisted AOP 35 5 2 5. filings. especially in terms of taxation. Some of these include: • A further deterioration of the internal security situation.Growth and Investment • Recent developments on this front. 11 published by Accountancy (www. Despite an improvement in the growth performance for 2009‐10. a turnaround in investor confidence can unleash large productivity gains even with low levels of fixed investment. With relatively low levels of capacity utilization in the economy currently. including in terms of policy design.8 47. does not bode well for reducing leakages on account of weak administration of Customs. Weaknesses in the taxation system. 1. for the larger‐sized firms (mostly corporate entities).0 Source: A. with the winding up of the PACCs system by FBR. registration costs etc). large scale manufacturing. in particular. services.pk) .4 Prospects for Growth While the near term outlook for growth and investment has improved moderately. is reinforced and not derailed or interrupted. as well as making lower payments for consumption. it is likely to remain constrained due to a continuation of the difficult macroeconomic environment. • A continuation of energy shortages. This is evident from the following table.com.3 No 34.accountancy. which depicts strikingly how uneven the “playing field” is.3 20. by encouraging informality. the economic turnaround is still fragile. the incipient growth recovery in the economy can gain some more traction if momentum in important segments of the economy. the taxation regime in place over the last many years has plausibly reduced revenue collection compared to what would have been the case counter‐factually. Table 1. In addition.8 25 No 2 No 27. The loss of scale induced by the taxation system has seriously eroded the competitiveness of the Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) sector. These include savings accruing via the elimination of the regulatory “burden” (audits. inspections. Ferguson Other cost advantages to being a relatively smaller. with non‐trivial risks stalking the outlook.8 47. Nonetheless. scale. and the use of informal channels for gaining utility connections. informal player in the economy are not captured in the Table.0 Non‐Corporate Small Individual company 20 20 5 No 2 No 7.F. If and when external inflows relieve this constraint. the threat of crowding out of private sector demand for bank credit by government bank borrowing remains. as well as improved liquidity in the banking system. but could reduce international prices of key commodities such as oil. the potential for unleashing large productivity gains in agriculture. government borrowing for budgetary support had an unintended consequence: the interest rate structure was pressured upward as a result. given potential drivers such as the size and dynamism of the Pakistani diaspora. which could hurt Pakistan’s exports as well as remittances on the one hand. While the risk of pre‐emption of the private sector’s credit requirements by government bank borrowing was obviated to a large extent in 2009‐10 by weak credit demand from the private sector. In any case. 12 published by Accountancy (www.Economic Survey 2009‐10 • The tipping of the world economy into a severe recession in the wake of the Eurozone debt crisis. on the other.com.pk) . and the harnessing of the “youth bulge”. improvements in the economic environment by a deepening of regional trade and investment links. interest rates can begin to decline at the margin. The magnitude.accountancy. timing and nature of external assistance inflows will be an important factor in reinforcing the nascent recovery. The longer term prospects for the economy are promising. 254 988.150 303.768 858.098 370.847.559 107.360 2.486 539.455 69.139 72. & Defence 15 Social and Community Services 16 GDP (fc) (I + II) 17 Indirect Taxes 18 Subsidies 19 GDP (mp) (16+17-18) 20 Net Factor Income from abroad 21 GNP (fc) (16+20) 22 GNP (mp) (19 + 20) 23 Population (in million) 24 Per Capita Income (fc-Rs) 25 Per Capita Income (mp-Rs) R : Revised P : Provisional (Rs million) % Change 2009-10/ 2008-09/ 2007-08 2008-09 2003-04 2004-05 ` 2005-06 2.085 5.076 2.486 136.297 554.5 2.2 4.267. Agriculture (1 to 5) 1 Major Crops 2 Minor Crops 3 Livestock 4 Fishery 5 Forestry B.729 135.621 840.293 1.0 -0.037 398.602 5.813 968.820 140.143 5. SERVICES SECTOR (10 to 15) 10 Transport.870 88.047 1.236 5.344 5.140 85.488 4.012 372.336 127.301 695.256.608 372.214 135.5 5.214 2.6 461.234.411 1.121 473.596 1.9 -1.569 693.841 75.2 -1.5 1.531 26.776 30.598 5.884 2.721 4.1 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CONSTANT FACTOR COST OF 1999-2000 Sector I.695 185.6 126.611 26.651 190.294 304.403 385.375 619.671 1.2 3.078 2.8 1.707 997.908 2006-07 2007-08 F 2008-09 R 2009-10 P 37.329 4.819 5.029 53.0 163.134 3.5 155.576 31.841 57.391 2.593.308 2.966 82.652 130.388 112.626 240.646.624.904 35.948 1.476 395.125 4.137.106 21.106 35.714 82.108 357.073 519.360.190 2.693 141.905 F : Final 32.996 4.5 4.427.768 374.661 964.626 14.766 4.008 648.4 -7.152 4.288 912.101 723.785 1.457 561.447 134. Storage & Communication 11 Wholesale & Retail Trade 12 Finance & Insurance 13 Ownership of Dwellings 14 Public Admn.968 1.4 7.0 -1.4 90.551 112.696 31.759 190.601 622.709 361.434 5.827 128.6 3.468.7 -8.027.363 98.191.711 5.154 35.0 7.5 3.203 0.404 1.195.276 477.535.845 1.521 150.6 6.5 766.183.973 33.6 149.2 7.044 5.7 5.697 1.1 -3.534 1.3 3.076.826 295.712 108.6 2.218.230 358.853 327.7 4.0 5.789 3.959 316.274.5 410.562 78.4 2.875 5.195 2.767.382 85.4 4.7 4.8 166.7 4.560.121 59.545 5.148. Industry (6 to 9) 6 Mining & Quarrying 7 Manufacturing i Large Scale ii Small Scale iii Slaughtering 8 Construction 9 Electricity and Gas Distribution II.818 2.808 111.4 158.4 3.540 17.387.215.426 265.049.6 4.321 268.536 2.149 437.005 126.500 16.117 138.9 1.374 193.383.7 5.691 17.173 75.441 2.764 131.243 590.880.1 3.288 5.3 155.864.041.479 6.586 5.838 5.2 -3.569 1.511.037 360.656 66.473 727.917 137.092.268 122.993 484.7 152.585 206.5 4.3 -3.957 35.231 338.434 6.com.094 1.617 125.9 -35.915 320.8 1.023.893 2.080 16.966 664.031 400.8 4.860.408 20.171 496.218 0.018.409 5.834 14.826 33.115 578.2 4.2 -3.565.345 33.3 -1.217 4.887 601.876 13.358.3 15.536 660.207.6 7.851 373.2 4.555.889 4.057 124.970.1 1.953 639.306.514 934.534.881.439 492.348.319 14.6 0.343 4.440 72.7 28.501 838.9 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.796 480.2 -11.386 921.562 84.584 41.865 8. SECTOR (A+B) A.7 1.944.2 -78.243 577.044 112.188 138.587 145.632 176.405 258.173.056 887.925 1.966 2. COMMODITY PROD.504.532 132.7 30.477.089 112.9 -0.873 399.916 3.892.565 332.961 112.650.771 13.015 314.pk) .5 267.681.923 30.670.2 161.560.521 -1.1 71.531 21.accountancy.058 125.371 518.365 69.036.0 3.TABLE 1.687.972 135.629 155.948 569.947 146.448.489 223.212.367.587 33.400 19.355 277. 2 2.3 12.7 6.0 6.8 3.accountancy.3 18.1 5.9 100.4 2.2 10.0 22.2 17.7 2.6 0.3 11.4 0. Industry 6 Mining & Quarrying 7 Manufacturing i Large Scale ii Small Scale iii Slaughtering 8 Construction 9 Electricity and Gas Distribution II.7 4.5 4.3 3.3 0.3 0.2 21.30 3.7 10.7 9.9 47.7 2.3 16.7 17.6 18.3 2.3 9.59 21.4 15.1 22.07 21.4 48.7 10.1 3.5 17.3 14.1 2.0 6.0 17.3 48.8 2.2 2.0 13.7 2.5 24.4 0.2 4.0 6.0 6.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 12.9 7.2 51.4 2.7 51.9 8.6 3.2 4.4 24.4 0.7 18.7 23.1 2.9 2.6 52.8 2.3 6.9 3.3 0.0 100.9 10.7 0.1 46.6 9.1 5.0 10.3 12.7 100.9 7.0 2.4 0.1 0.7 2.9 10.9 0. COMMODITY PROD.2 10.9 7.0 52.2 2.6 11.2 3.pk) .9 50.0 8.3 25.4 26.5 100.2 9.4 2.7 23.3 4.1 8.36 21.7 4.TABLE 1.0 6.9 100.6 11.7 3.9 4.9 4.6 3.3 26.0 6.2 0.8 13.4 0.3 0.0 53.2 SECTORAL SHARE IN GDP Sector I.4 22.5 12.2 5.6 0.6 48.4 11.5 5. Storage & Communication 11 Wholesale & Retail Trade 12 Finance & Insurance 13 Ownership of Dwellings 14 Public Admn.0 5.5 52.3 10.3 11.3 25.2 2.2 51.4 3.6 25.9 2.9 2.1 6.4 2.4 25.3 2.7 4.6 3.4 11.4 0.1 12.6 17.3 48.1 3.5 11.4 2.4 6.4 9.5 16.7 0.2 51.7 23.4 18.2 3.3 2.5 11.4 5.5 3.6 2.6 11.8 2.0 10.3 25.2 2. SERVICES SECTOR 10 Transport.4 10.6 5.3 100.0 100.3 11.9 9. Agriculture 1 Major Crops 2 Minor Crops 3 Livestock 4 Fishery 5 Forestry B.6 100.8 2.6 11.7 23.5 3.3 11.0 2.0 10.8 17.0 F : Final 6.2 13.0 2.4 11.4 10.5 7.3 0.2 3.1 6.4 15.6 2.7 25.5 7. & Defence 15 Social Services 16 GDP (fc) (I + II) R : Revised P : Provisional 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 F 2008-09 R (%) 2009-10 P 49.0 3.0 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.0 11.5 19.4 3.6 19.5 18.3 5.1 17.1 2.9 17.7 48.com.4 11.7 2.2 9.4 18.4 24.1 53.6 2.8 2.4 8.9 2.4 4.0 2.0 3.0 0.8 1.9 11.8 100.2 3.9 46.1 9.7 47.5 18.9 2.5 2.2 47.4 4.3 10.0 100.9 5.3 2.2 4.1 2.3 51.9 9. SECTOR A.3 2.0 100. 4 6.4 -1.4 5. SERVICES SECTOR 10 Transport.3 1.0 0.6 4.5 3.6 3.3 -5.4 -0.6 2.0 -3.0 30.7 -6.4 3.3 4.1 4 Fishery -3.7 2.0 1.2 3.8 4.1 4.2 -1.7 4.7 18.accountancy.9 1.6 5.3 3.7 4.7 -7.6 7.4 -1.1 4.6 15..5 5.0 4.9 7.1 1.0 4.7 17. 2.0 6..3 -13.9 3.3 REAL GDP / GNP GROWTH RATES (AT CONSTANT FACTOR COST OF 1999-2000) 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 F 2008-09 R (%) 2009-10 P I.5 3.6 10.4 4.5 3.2 4.3 8 Construction 0.2 15.2 18.0 -10.3 0.. & Defence 15 Social Services 16 GDP (fc) R : Revised .8 8.5 7.2 -32.8 -3.1 -4.2 6.5 iii Slaughtering .6 4.0 -3.1 19.0 2.8 1.9 2.3 3.2 0.1 2.0 3.5 7.0 -11.9 4.3 4.4 6.5 4.9 6.8 1.2 4.5 1.8 4.8 8.0 -8.2 i Large Scale 11.2 B.9 -2.5 8.3 9.0 -12.5 3.5 3.3 1.9 -1.1 -5.4 5.7 -23.9 14.8 5.1 2.5 4.4 4.1 -13.4 11.3 -20.7 6.5 6.0 15.2 16.7 8. SECTOR 0.0 5.2 4. .7 3. .3 -1.5 2.8 3.3 9.7 56.8 1.2 4.0 4.com.6 20. Storage & Communication 11 Wholesale & Retail Trade 12 Finance & Insurance 13 Ownership of Dwellings 14 Public Admn.3 12.pk) ..0 1 Major Crops -9.2 0.1 4.0 3.6 -1.1 8.5 2.3 -0.7 8.4 4.4 7.8 6.1 1.8 -5.1 4.6 7.8 2.2 -1.1 17.0 10.8 5.5 9.2 -3.0 7.0 8.2 3 Livestock 3.7 1.2 4.6 10.5 6.9 6.4 12.TABLE 1.5 7.7 -26.5 7.6 4.1 -7.8 3.3 3.5 8.8 42.6 1.5 3.1 4.8 15.7 3.8 6.1 6.8 3.2 6. . Agriculture Sector -2.0 2.5 6.3 8.9 14.5 6..5 3.9 7.5 3.6 30.9 8.4 -1.9 11.1 7.2 9.2 2.6 10.9 7.1 4.7 -3.2 5.2 3.4 5 Forestry 9.4 9. COMMODITY PROD.2 24.5 -11.7 5.1 -3.1 -15.6 2.3 6.5 5.6 A. Industry 4.8 3.2 5.4 6 Mining & Quarrying ii Small Scale 6.3 12.3 15.1 9 Electricity and Gas Distribution II.7 1.6 3.5 5.5 0.9 5. : Not available P : Provisional F : Final Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.3 4.9 9.1 7.8 2.4 2.8 0.0 -2.7 7.2 2 Minor Crops -3.7 7 Manufacturing 9.6 9. 440 361.026 4.375 1.144 1.681.559 845.624.533 -3.382 5.036 573.251.584 374.29 3.488 69.560.303 904.84 71.650.051 73.16 11.425 801.53 13.66 4.755 -31.982 878.534.598 5.863 988.305 3.750 84.560.69 5.749 3.94 384.970 -15.538 6.961 5.841 372.63 4.67 4.545 75.073 3.980 4.41 -35.029 358.838 193.392 840.602 190.864.101 4.31 14.880.477.111 944.647 89.818 588.934 87.06 5.87 1 Private Consumption Expenditure 2 General Govt.003.696 908.711 31.819 5.825 390.721 88.38 658.588 3.274.050 90.877 5.16 4.708.123 4.222.46 P : Provisional Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.714 5.018.65 355.896 965.085 82.343 82. Current Consumption Expenditure 3 Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation 4 Change in Stocks 5 Export of Goods and Non-Factor Services 6 Less Imports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 7 Expenditure on GDP at Market Prices 8 Plus Net Factor Income from Rest of the World 9 Expenditure on GNP at Market Prices 10 Less Indirect Taxes 11 Plus Subsidies 12 GNP at Factor Cost R : Revised F : Final 54.pk) .856 890.651 360.046 92.303 4.267.451 53.531 -3.434 85.977 955.947 3.071 506.143 5.052 850.319 396.140 1.206.586 112.371.796 5.63 4.311 4.479 1.376 6.945 11.948 5.4 EXPENDITURE ON GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES OF 1999-2000 Flows (Rs million) % Change 2008-09/ 2009-10/ 2007-08 2008-09 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 F 2008-09 R 2009-10 P 2.576 4.350.891 3.085 26.731 701.36 127.779.323 372.844 4.147 739.865 3.983 601.703 79.976 4.288 41.882.565.024.455 395.952.36 814.24 3.300 -11.TABLE 1.30 -2.041 1.052 968.546 5.164 935.889 72.767.944.468.881.183.154 4.212.434 -78.06 657.306.970.04 71.281 96.049.002.670.com.031.070 617.576 532.accountancy.375 5.371 5. 093.826 974.527 455.0 12.830.239.930 79.631 8.391 30.896 91.679 2.08 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.9 45.489 896.227 252.029 6.584 667.990 2009-10 P 3.250.02 147.799 12.182 39.4 24.6 1.486 621.843.155.668.106 157.854 444.270 1.7 35.618 9.313 1.561 20.500 10.338 169.447 13.17 160.095 -2.461 6.257.441 184.3 14.801 153.615 14.254 1.31 16.657 222.491 12.65 152.0 16.218 621.4 10.782 7.527 569.565 1.448 30.827 570.800 182.76 166.731 35.4 13.4 -32.0 14.661 625.314.243 149.502 56.6 16.806 42.2 896.158.885 190.836 126.369.426.121 794.086 52.007 10.773.673.55 7.603.262.668 30.499.222 464.545 219.830 64.256 2.067.610 148.52 1.211 5.6 17.0 16.492 27.012.372 578.336 14.495 50.061 62.494 1.166 239.304.3 4.882 86.634 814.134 13.320 1.74 P : Provisional 244.170 17.501 106.630.051.181 6.1 11.130.235.9 19.874 222.370.425 153.121 881.190 235.005 171.240 546.375.290 902.051 1.685 760.5 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CURRENT FACTOR COST Sectors 1 Agriculture Major Crops Minor Crops Livestock Fishery Forestry 2 Mining & Quarrying 3 Manufacturing Large Scale Small Scale Slaughtering 4 Construction 5 Electricity and Gas Distribution 6 Transport.accountancy.901 7.4 19.467.9 22.181 671.0 -0.136.899 280. & Defence 11 Social Services 12 GDP (fc) 13 Indirect Taxes 14 Subsidies 15 GDP (mp) 16 Net Factor Income from abroad 17 GNP (fc) 18 GNP (mp) 19 Population (in million) 20 Per Capita Income (fc-Rs) 21 Per Capita Income (mp-Rs) 22 Per Capita Income (mp-US $) 23 GDP Deflator Index Growth R : Revised F : Final 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 1.765.53 155.519 145.083.418 184.623.702 71.234 497.956 763.1 13.TABLE 1.5 21.793 1.077 104.1 14.3 24.4 15.715 344.471 2.573 279.8 6.5 669 733 836 921 1.409 1.1 38.894.497 1.0 7.239 2007-08 F 2.428 7.685.687 260.638 208.134 8.463 346.77 20.005 5.164.249 246.7 25.943 137.332 1.267 675.4 5.478 5.20 221.7 1.739.003.6 133.2 14.634.2 6.461 766.496 343.029 1.671 281.921.490 23.759 25.6 16.6 2.62 7.950.001 364.524 43.230 1.442 52.414.1 124.340 2008-09 R 2.016.018 1.030 55.878 346.359 404.623 (Rs million) % Change 2008-09/ 2009-10/ 2007-08 2008-09 29.598 294.873 1.5 149.149.728 31.com.568 468.966 530.469 1.099 556.218 16.6 4.010 298.553 1.8 12.682 1.081.062 245.264 165.7 312.5 19.8 2.4 -69.464.550 14.421 301.0 15.515 23.428 24.392. Storage & Communication 7 Wholesale & Retail Trade 8 Finance & Insurance 9 Ownership of Dwellings 10 Public Admn.451.114 236.391.017.058 667.797 225.225 334.441.604 308.457.7 146.276 168.399 467.32 124.2 65.786 447.374 211.pk) .0 18.803 1.074 934.537.105 473.70 184.665 12.308.944 556.97 163.278 1.934 75.100.49 158.500.206 1.5 15.628 653.962 121.751 411.7 759.829.810 2.30 7.37 158.1 15.587 115.022 47.789 345.058 134.597 208.713 187.0 31.723 1.556 154.437 7.205 8.176 99.439 1.043 64.242.4 15.039 53.6 12.357 165.769 179.604 346.711 908.12 10.5 13.639 53.333 1.580 6.8 14.573 91.917 41.541 1.522 1.6 14.916 10.188 41.389 662.891 395.571 213.122.567.730 8.710.874 118.104 15.763 25.640.348 551.038 1.1 17.812 206.101.28 10.549 65.228. 25 4.851.629 90.447 14.901 157.770.478 134.312.431 1.433 844.501 12.499.130.743 2.121 71.53 736.763 -69.920 2.631 208.230.134.573 569.019.638 10.686.058 6.496 91.257.439 1.702 14.308.501 896.pk) .462 509.027.300 796.00 P : Provisional Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics F : Final published by Accountancy (www.830.088 2.604 1.595.812 124.549 468.791 65.815.600.838 1.783 1.156 1.673.874 667.36 -32.648 5.254.426.257 1.45 1 Private Consumption Expenditure 2 General Government Current Consumption Expenditure 3 Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation 4 Change in Stocks 5 Export of Goods and NonFactor Services 6 Less Imports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 7 Expenditure on GDP at Market Prices 8 Plus Net Factor Income from the rest of the world 9 Expenditure on GNP at Market Prices 10 Less Indirect Taxes 11 Plus Subsidies 12 GNP at Factor Cost R : Revised 61.800 12.392.971 138.11 7.885 203.242.634.615 64.390 2.008 2.196 1.55 -0.196.565.225 6.623.289 30.37 15.249 105.386 1.18 16.029.161.001.553 24.580 6.660 1.14 151.50 27.640.969 5.892.243 7.66 16.389 106.773.875.14 815.com.689 462.843 7.720.63 80.224 825.029 7.625 11.37 15.47 403.278.620 2.768 163.916 344.accountancy.414.375.461 149.695 24.36 17.604 763.428 24.460 5.499 5.030 5.221 455.963 4.399 1.29 15.783.204 1.205 8.847 1.271.67 786.094.88 15.043 25.38 4.491 570.966 346.716 13.22 428.543.210.446.007 10.717 5.598 6.106 8.451.005 6.765.077 556.104 22.64 5.730 10.814.668.359 104.827 15.739.864 824.316.835.6 EXPENDITURE ON GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES Flows (Rs million) % Change 2008-09/ 2009-10/ 2007-08 2008-09 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 F 2008-09 R 2009-10 P 3.89 65.083.TABLE 1.399 118.310 10.829 234.298 121.184.336 14.239.942 1.520 -19.158 883.636.704 1.428 8.782 7. TABLE 1.7 GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (GFCF) IN PRIVATE, PUBLIC, AND GENERAL GOVERNMENT SECTORS BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES Sector 2002-03 GFCF (A+B+C) 736,433 A. Private Sector 545,104 B. Public Sector 104,051 C. General Govt. 87,278 Private & Public (A+B) 649,155 SECTOR-WISE: 1. Agriculture 75,681 2. Mining and Quarrying 77,430 3. Manufacturing (A+B) 164,920 A. Large Scale 136,066 B. Small Scale* 28,854 4. Construction 7,130 5. Electricity & Gas 57,562 6. Transport and Communication 82,864 7. Wholesale and Retail Trade 12,533 8. Finance & Insurance 23,366 9. Ownership of Dwellings 91,379 10. Services 56,290 P : Provisional R : Revised * : Slaughtering is included in small scale sector 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2008-09 R 2,210,921 1,620,982 212,879 377,060 1,833,861 2009-10 P 2,196,969 1,564,427 218,432 414,110 1,782,859 (Rs million) % Change 2008-09/ 2009-10/ 2007-08 2008-09 5.5 -0.6 5.3 -3.5 3.9 2.6 7.7 9.8 5.1 -2.8 844,836 616,514 103,536 124,786 720,050 1,134,942 852,424 129,482 153,036 981,906 1,565,838 1,197,740 162,022 206,076 1,359,762 1,814,620 1,335,849 172,697 306,074 1,508,546 2007-08 F 2,094,743 1,539,647 204,873 350,223 1,744,520 81,159 135,308 145,575 151,574 147,511 171,521 191,359 16.3 11.6 18,651 203,929 164,572 39,357 10,113 33,378 247,166 195,655 51,511 17,824 49,569 326,797 261,023 65,774 26,106 75,559 350,248 276,131 74,117 38,299 94,753 364,088 271,840 92,248 33,515 136,398 375,350 254,835 120,515 42,862 144,501 356,736 223,333 133,403 44,066 44.0 3.1 -6.3 30.6 27.9 5.9 -5.0 -12.4 10.7 2.8 25,261 40,050 69,795 73,497 88,443 89,211 81,098 0.9 -9.1 148,646 224,974 392,651 395,240 457,156 423,549 370,403 -7.4 -12.5 17,192 21,381 29,157 37,227 43,140 51,997 54,417 20.5 4.7 27,945 110,398 76,754 31,580 129,247 101,065 F : Final 41,009 149,167 129,936 81,683 158,719 146,500 152,038 181,729 182,147 91,325 219,867 231,781 60,264 231,657 248,358 -39.9 21.0 27.2 -34.0 5.4 7.2 (Contd.) published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) TABLE 1.7 GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (GFCF) IN PRIVATE SECTOR BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES Sector 616,514 852,424 1,197,740 1,335,849 2007-08 F 1,539,647 1. Agriculture 74,293 81,050 2. Mining and Quarrying 48,252 12,701 3. Manufacturing 163,520 200,521 Large Scale 134,666 161,162 Small Scale* 28,854 39,359 4. Construction 4,178 6,608 5. Electricity & Gas 26,417 3,039 6. Transport & Communication 51,381 86,951 7. Wholesale and Retail Trade 12,533 17,192 8. Ownership of Dwellings 91,379 110,398 9. Finance & Insurance 20,897 26,599 10. Services 52,254 71,455 R : Revised P : Provisional * : Slaughtering is included in small scale sector 135,086 143,538 151,340 147,381 171,383 191,129 16.3 11.5 18,384 244,959 193,448 51,511 13,418 11,612 31,323 320,501 254,727 65,774 19,248 32,372 49,007 346,574 272,457 74,117 24,262 29,633 62,764 362,824 270,576 92,248 19,091 32,843 89,680 371,098 250,583 120,515 28,205 31,438 95,115 352,850 219,447 133,403 27,601 25,538 42.9 2.3 -7.4 30.6 47.7 -4.3 6.1 -4.9 -12.4 10.7 -2.1 -18.8 153,558 312,549 324,335 372,544 357,850 307,040 -3.9 -14.2 21,381 29,157 37,227 43,140 51,997 54,417 20.5 4.7 129,247 30,520 94,259 F : Final 149,167 38,692 121,193 158,719 77,974 136,778 181,729 147,268 170,063 219,867 83,273 216,191 231,657 47,640 231,440 21.0 -43.5 27.1 5.4 -42.8 7.1 (Contd.) PRIVATE SECTOR 2002-03 545,104 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2008-09 R 1,620,982 2009-10 P 1,564,427 (Rs million) % Change 2008-09/ 2009-10/ 2007-08 2008-09 5.3 -3.5 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) TABLE 1.7 GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (GFCF) IN PUBLIC AND GENERAL GOVERNMENT SECTORS BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES Sector Public Sector and General Govt. (A+B) A. Public Sector 1. Agriculture 2. Mining and Quarrying 3. Manufacturing 4. Construction 5. Electricity & Gas 6. Transport and Communication Railways Post Office & PTCL Others 7. Wholesale and Retail Trade 8. Finance & Insurance 9. Services B. General Govt. Federal Provincial District Govt. R : Revised - : Nil 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 F 2008-09 R (Rs million) % Change 2008-09/ 2009-10/ 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 P 191,332 104,054 1,388 228,322 103,536 109 282,518 129,482 222 368,098 162,022 2,037 481,771 175,697 234 555,096 204,873 130 589,939 212,879 138 632,542 218,432 230 6.3 3.9 6.2 7.2 2.6 66.7 29,178 1,400 2,952 31,145 5,950 3,410 3,505 22,222 14,994 2,140 4,406 28,438 18,246 6,296 6,858 37,423 29,552 3,674 14,037 43,864 31,989 1,264 14,424 55,600 46,718 4,252 14,657 57,773 49,386 3,886 16,465 55,560 46.0 236.4 1.6 3.9 5.7 -8.6 12.3 -3.8 31,486 3,133 6,699 21,654 61,695 3,336 5,834 52,525 71,416 3,439 10,763 57,214 80,102 4,754 15,232 60,116 70,905 3,680 11,981 55,244 84,612 4,296 14,445 65,871 65,699 1,609 23,814 40,276 63,363 284 23,830 39,249 -22.4 -62.5 64.9 -38.9 -3.6 -82.3 0.1 -2.5 - - - - - - - - - - 1,346 5,299 124,786 41,304 50,059 33,423 1,060 6,806 153,036 38,938 71,567 42,531 F : Final 2,317 8,743 206,076 53,522 113,512 39,042 3,709 9,722 306,074 78,862 156,261 70,951 4,770 12,084 350,223 83,175 179,756 87,292 8,052 15,590 377,060 59,663 211,330 106,067 2,469 4,036 87,278 31,581 26,689 29,008 P : Provisional .. : Not available 12,624 68.8 56.8 16,918 29.0 8.5 414,110 7.7 9.8 75,722 -28.3 26.9 245,537 17.6 16.2 92,851 21.5 -12.5 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) TABLE 1.8 GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (GFCF) IN PRIVATE, PUBLIC AND GENERAL GOVERNMENT SECTORS BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT CONSTANT MARKET PRICES OF 1999-2000 Sector GFCF (A+B+C) A. Private Sector 2002-03 2003-04 658,070 485,849 617,731 447,212 2004-05 701,392 521,326 2005-06 840,976 635,894 2006-07 955,141 691,550 2007-08 F 1,024,696 756,035 2008-09 R 908,856 672,015 2009-10 P 890,301 637,990 (Rs million) % Change 2008-09/ 2009-10/ 2007-08 2008-09 -11.3 -2.0 -11.1 -5.1 B. Public Sector 91,475 72,763 75,153 81,809 85,153 88,743 76,150 76,752 -14.2 0.8 C. General Govt. 80,746 97,756 104,913 123,273 178,438 179,918 160,691 175,559 -10.7 9.3 519,975 596,479 717,703 776,703 844,778 748,165 714,742 -11.4 -4.5 170,519 180,066 205,082 263,591 268,661 236,841 252,311 -11.8 6.5 55,779 76,389 70,285 70,902 107,328 112,937 120,600 5.2 6.8 12,232 144,010 115,700 28,310 7,919 17,482 148,129 117,147 30,982 13,155 22,021 171,302 140,320 30,982 19,378 32,557 179,530 142,424 37,106 26,805 36,104 164,909 124,299 40,610 21,137 44,252 138,239 93,796 44,443 19,784 45,680 128,000 79,363 48,637 19,139 22.6 -16.2 -24.5 9.4 -6.4 3.2 -7.4 -15.4 9.4 -3.3 16,934 21,659 32,056 32,750 34,764 29,710 26,439 -14.5 -11.0 105,851 133,953 202,033 197,176 201,000 154,999 133,193 -22.9 -14.1 13,760 22,025 15,165 21,835 18,123 25,196 22,578 48,454 23,049 80,919 22,957 41,272 23,968 26,554 -0.4 -49.0 4.4 -35.7 87,010 54,455 89,213 59,499 91,648 65,661 94,151 71,800 96,721 78,847 99,363 84,651 102,074 89,094 2.7 7.4 2.7 5.2 (Contd.) Private & Public (A+B) 577,324 Public & General Govt. (B+C) 172,221 SECTOR-WISE: 1. Agriculture 66,762 2. Mining and Quarrying 66,738 3. Manufacturing 149,275 Large Scale 120,969 Small Scale* 28,306 4. Construction 6,606 5. Electricity & Gas 50,119 6. Transport and Communication 74,151 7. Wholesale and Retail Trade 11,692 8. Finance & Insurance 21,265 9. Ownerships of Dwellings 83,163 10. Services 49,996 R : Revised P : Provisional - : Not available F : Final * : Slaughtering is included in small scale sector published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) TABLE 1.8 GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (GFCF) IN PRIVATE SECTOR AT CONSTANT MARKET PRICES OF 1999-2000 Sector 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 PRIVATE SECTOR 485,849 447,213 521,326 635,893 1. Agriculture 65,537 55,704 76,264 2. Mining and Quarrying 41,589 8,330 9,629 3. Manufacturing 145,588 141,613 146,847 Large Scale 119,724 113,303 115,865 Small Scale* 25,864 28,310 30,982 4. Construction 3,871 5,175 9,903 5. Electricity & Gas 23,001 2,044 6,280 6. Transport & Communication 45,979 61,918 91,431 7. Wholesale and Retail Trade 11,692 13,760 15,165 8. Ownership of Dwellings 83,163 87,010 89,213 9. Finance & Insurance 19,018 20,964 21,102 10. Services 46,411 50,695 55,492 R : Revised P : Provisional F : Final * : Slaughtering is included in small scale sector 2006-07 (Rs million) % Change 2007-08/ 2008-09/ 2006-07 2007-08 -11.1 -5.1 691,549 2007-08 F 756,035 2008-09 R 672,015 2009-10 P 637,991 69,302 70,792 107,274 112,890 120,523 5.2 6.8 13,915 167,917 136,935 30,982 14,287 21,116 177,636 140,529 37,107 16,981 23,915 164,331 123,721 40,610 12,040 29,095 136,674 92,231 44,443 13,018 30,068 126,619 77,982 48,637 11,988 21.7 -16.8 -25.5 9.4 8.1 3.3 -7.4 -15.4 9.4 -7.9 14,868 13,204 12,910 10,470 8,326 -18.9 -20.5 160,818 161,803 163,798 130,957 110,409 -20.0 -15.7 18,123 22,578 23,049 22,957 23,968 -0.4 4.4 91,648 94,151 96,721 99,363 102,074 2.7 2.7 23,772 61,243 46,253 67,035 78,380 73,617 37,633 78,958 20,991 83,025 -52.0 7.3 -44.2 5.2 (Contd.) published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) TABLE 1.8 GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (GFCF) IN PUBLIC AND GENERAL GOVERNMENT SECTORS AT CONSTANT MARKET PRICES OF 1999-2000 Sector 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Public and General Government (A+B) 172,221 170,518 180,066 205,084 263,590 268,662 236,841 252,311 -11.8 6.5 91,476 1,224 72,762 75 75,153 125 81,810 983 85,152 109 88,744 53 76,150 47 76,751 78 -14.2 -11.3 0.8 66.0 25,149 1,245 2,735 27,118 3,902 2,397 2,745 14,890 7,853 1,282 3,252 15,379 8,106 3,385 5,091 17,188 11,441 1,895 9,824 19,545 12,189 578 9,097 21,855 15,157 1,565 6,765 19,240 15,612 1,381 7,151 18,113 24.3 170.8 -25.6 -12.0 3.0 -11.8 5.7 -5.9 28,173 2,804 5,992 19,377 43,933 2,376 4,154 37,403 42,522 2,048 6,408 34,066 41,215 2,446 7,837 30,932 35,373 1,836 5,977 27,560 37,202 1,889 6,351 28,962 24,043 589 8,715 14,739 22,785 102 8,569 14,114 -35.4 -68.8 37.2 -49.1 -5.2 -82.7 -1.7 -4.2 - - - - - - - - - - 2,247 3,585 80,745 29,217 24,691 26,837 1,061 3,759 97,756 32,357 39,216 26,183 F : Final 733 4,007 104,913 26,694 49,062 29,157 1,424 4,418 123,274 32,017 67,902 23,355 2,200 4,765 178,438 45,976 91,098 41,364 2,539 5,231 179,918 42,729 92,345 44,844 3,639 5,694 160,691 25,427 90,062 45,202 A. Public Sector 1. Agriculture 2. Mining and Quarrying 3. Manufacturing 4. Construction 5. Electricity & Gas 6. Transport and Communication Railways Post Office & PTCL Others 7. Wholesale and Retail Trade 8. Finance & Insurance 9. Services B. General Govt. Federal Provincial District Govt. R: Revised P: Provisional 2006-07 2007-08 F 2008-09 R (Rs million) % Change 2007-08/ 2008-09/ 2006-07 2007-08 2009-10 P 5,562 43.3 52.8 6,069 8.9 6.6 175,560 -10.7 9.3 32,102 -40.5 26.3 104,094 -2.5 15.6 39,364 0.8 -12.9 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) 2 Agriculture The Agriculture sector continues to play a central role in Pakistan’s economy. It is the second largest sector, accounting for over 21 percent of GDP, and remains by far the largest employer, absorbing 45 percent of the country’s total labour force. Nearly 62 percent of the country’s population resides in rural areas, and is directly or indirectly linked with agriculture for their livelihood. The Agriculture sector’s strong linkages with the rest of the economy are not fully captured in the statistics. While on the one hand, the sector is a primary supplier of raw materials to downstream industry, contributing substantially to Pakistan’s exports, on the other, it is a large market for industrial products such as fertilizer, pesticides, tractors and agricultural implements. Despite its critical importance to growth, exports, Table 2.1: Historical growth performance incomes, and food security, the Agriculture sector Agriculture Growth has been suffering from secular decline (Table 2.1). Years Percent Growth in the sector, particularly in the crop sub‐ 1960's 5.1 1970's 2.4 sector, has been falling for the past three decades. 5.4 Productivity remains low, with yield gaps rising (Table 1980's 1990's 4.4 2.2). Critical investments in new seeds, farming 2000's 3.2 technology and techniques, and the water Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics infrastructure are not being made. Without major new investments in Agriculture, it is unclear how prepared Pakistan would be to tackle emerging challenges such as declining water availability, and climate change (for a fuller discussion, see Special Section at end of chapter). Table 2.2: Yield Gap (Major Crops) World 3086 Difference From Best* 65 71510 Difference From Best* 59 China 4762 India 2802 100 73114 59 68877 Pakistan 2451 52 USA 3018 63 Brazil ‐ ‐ 79709 66 4229 Egypt ‐ ‐ 121136 100 9731 Country Wheat *Best = 100 Data pertains to 2008 4309 Difference From Best* 44 60 6556 57 3370 51494 43 73765 61 Sugarcane 2099 Difference From Best* 54 67 3906 100 35 1206 31 3520 36 2046 52 7672 79 2250 58 44 3757 96 100 2333 60 Rice (Paddy) Cotton Seed Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture 13 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Economic Survey 2009‐10 Recent performance Table 2.3: Agriculture Growth Year Agriculture 2003‐04 2.4 2004‐05 6.5 2005‐06 6.3 2006‐07 4.1 2007‐08 1.0 2008‐09 4.0 2009‐10(P) 2.0 P= Provisional Major Crops 1.7 17.7 ‐3.9 7.7 ‐6.4 7.3 ‐0.2 Minor Crops 3.9 1.5 0.4 ‐ 1.0 10.9 ‐1.7 ‐1.2 (Percent) Livestock Fishery Forestry 2.9 2.0 ‐3.2 2.3 0.6 ‐32.4 15.8 20.8 ‐1.1 2.8 15.4 ‐5.1 4.2 9.2 ‐13.0 3.5 2.3 ‐3.0 4.1 1.4 2.2 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics Over the past six years, Agriculture has grown at an average rate of 3.7 percent per annum. However, volatility in the sector is high, with the range of growth varying between 6.5 percent and 1.0 percent. The fluctuation in overall agriculture has been largely dependent on the contribution of major crops. The trend in agriculture growth since 2003‐04 is reported in Table 2.3. During the outgoing year 2009‐10, the overall performance of agriculture sector has been weaker than target. Against a target of 3.8 percent, and previous year’s performance of 4.0 percent, agriculture is estimated to have grown by 2.0 percent. Major crops, accounting for 32.8 percent of agricultural value added, registered a negative growth of 0.2 percent as against robust growth of 7.3 percent last year. Minor crops contributing 11.1 percent to overall agriculture posted negative growth of 1.2 percent. Production of Minor crops has declined for the three years since 2004‐05, a worrying trend which is partially contributing to food price inflation. The performance of Livestock – the single largest contributor to overall agriculture (53.2 percent) however, grew by 4.1 percent in 2009‐10 as against 3.5 percent last year. The Fishery sector expanded by 1.4 percent, against its previous year’s growth of 2.3 percent. Forestry which has experienced negative growth for the last six years, exhibited positive growth of 2.2 percent this year. Nonetheless, over the past several years, the forest sector has contracted, underscoring the scale of the environment challenge facing a country that already has amongst the highest rates of deforestation in the world. Pakistan’s agricultural performance is closely linked with the supply of irrigation water. As shown in Table 2.4, against the normal surface water availability at canal heads of 103.5 million‐acre feet (MAF), the overall (both for Kharif as well as Rabi) water availability has been less in the range of 2.5 percent (2005‐06) to 20.6 percent (2004‐05). However, it remained less by 2.5 percent in 2005‐06 against the normal availability. Relatively speaking, Rabi season faced shortage of water during 2009‐10. During the current fiscal year (2009‐10), the availability of water as an important input for Kharif 2009 (for the crops such as rice, sugarcane and cotton) has been 0.3 percent more than the normal supplies and 0.6 percent more than last year’s Kharif (see Table 2.4). The water availability during Rabi season (for major crop such as wheat), is, however, estimated at 26.0 MAF, which is 28.6 percent less than the normal availability, and 4.4 percent more than last year’s Rabi. 14 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Agriculture Table 2.4: Actual Surface Water Availability Period Average system usage 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 Kharif Rabi Total 67.1 65.9 59.1 70.8 63.1 70.8 66.9 67.3 36.4 31.5 23.1 30.1 31.2 27.9 24.9 26.0 103.5 97.4 82.2 100.9 94.3 98.7 91.8 93.3 (Million Acre Feet) %age incr/decr. Over the Avg. ‐ ‐ 5.9 ‐ 20.6 ‐ 2.5 ‐ 8.9 ‐ 4.6 ‐11.3 ‐9.9 Source: IRSA Efficient irrigation system is a pre‐requisite for higher agricultural production since it helps increase the crop intensity. Despite the existence of a good irrigation canal network in the Pakistan, it still suffers from wastage of a large amount of water in the irrigation process. Position of rainfall during monsoon and winter season is detailed given in Table 2.5:‐ Table 2.5: Rainfall* Recorded During 2009‐10 Normal Actual Shortage (‐)/excess (+) % Shortage (‐)/excess (+) *:Area weighted (In Millimeter) Monsoon Rainfall Winter Rainfall (Jul‐Sep) 2009 (Jan‐Mar) 2010 137.5 70.5 101.8 49.2 ‐35.7 ‐21.3 ‐26.0 ‐30.2 Source: Pakistan Meteorological Department During the monsoon season (July‐September, 2009) the normal rainfall is 137.5 mm while the actual rainfall received stood at 101.8 mm, indicating a decrease of 26.0 percent. Likewise, during the winter (January to March 2010), the actual rainfall received was 49.2 mm while the normal rainfall during this period has been 70.5 mm, indicating a decrease of 30.2 percent over the normal rainfall. I. Crop Situation There are two principal crop seasons in Pakistan, namely the "Kharif", the sowing season of which begins in April‐June and harvesting during October‐December; and the "Rabi", which begins in October‐ December and ends in April‐May. Rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, mong, mash, bajra and jowar are “Kharif" crops while wheat, gram, lentil (masoor), tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard are "Rabi" crops. Major crops, such as, wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane account for 82.0 percent of the value added in the major crops. The value added in major crops accounts for 32.8 percent of the value added in overall agriculture. Thus, the four major crops (wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane), on average, contribute 33.1 percent to the value added in overall agriculture and 7.1 percent to GDP. The minor crops account for 11.1 percent of the value added in overall agriculture. Livestock contributes 53.2 percent to agricultural value added – much more than the combined contribution of major and minor crops (43.9%). See Table‐2.6 15 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 2.6: Production of Major Crops Cotton Year Sugarcane (000 bales) 14265 47244 2004‐05 (42.0) (‐11.6) 13019 44666 2005‐06 (‐8.7) (‐5.5) 12856 54742 2006‐07 (‐1.2) (22.6) 11655 63920 2007‐08 (‐9.3) (16.8) 11819 50045 2008‐09 (1.4) (‐21.7) 12698 49373 2009‐10(P) (7.4) (‐1.3) P:Provisional (July‐March) *:Figures in parentheses are growth rates (000 Tons) Rice Maize Wheat 5025 (3.6) 5547 (10.4) 5438 (‐2.0) 5563 (2.3) 6952 (25.0) 6883 (‐1.0) 2797 (47.4) 3110 (11.2) 3088 (‐0.7) 3605 (16.7) 3593 (‐0.3) 3487 (‐3.0) 21612 (10.8) 21277 (‐1.6) 23295 (9.5) 20959 (‐10.0) 24033 (14.7) 23864 (‐0.7) Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture a) Major Crops: i) Cotton: Cotton being a non‐food cash crop contributes significantly in foreign exchange earning. Cotton accounts for 8.6 percent of the value added in agriculture and about 1.8 percent to GDP. The crop was sown on the area of 3106 thousand hectares, 10.1 percent more than last year (2820 thousand hectares). The production is estimated at 12.7 million bales for 2009‐10, higher by 7.4 percent over the last year’s production of 11.8 million bales. However, the cotton production was 5.0 percent less than the target of 13.36 million bales mainly due to the shortage of irrigation water, high temperatures in the month of August resulting in excessive fruit shedding, flare up of sucking pest complexes and wide spread of Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCV). Area, production and yield of cotton for the last five years are given in Table 2.7 and Fig. 2.1. Fig 2.1: Cotton Production (000 bales) 09‐10(P) 08‐09 07‐08 06‐07 05‐06 04‐05 03‐04 02‐03 01‐02 00‐01 99‐00 98‐99 97‐98 15000 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 Source: M/o Food and Agriculture, FBS 16 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Agriculture Table 2.7: Area, Production and Yield of Cotton Area Production Yield Year (000 Hectare) % Change (000 Bales) % Change (Kgs/Hec) % Change 2005‐06 3103 ‐2.8 13019 ‐8.7 714 ‐6.0 2006‐07 3075 ‐0.9 12856 ‐1.2 711 ‐0.4 2007‐08 3054 ‐ 0.7 11655 ‐ 9.3 649 ‐8.7 2008‐09 2820 ‐7.7 11819 1.4 713 9.9 2009‐10(P) 3106 10.1 12698 7.4 695 ‐2.5 P: Provisional (July‐March) Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Federal Bureau of Statistics. During this 2009‐10 Kharif, an important development was the increasing usage of Bt: Cotton by farmers. In Sindh, it was observed almost 80% of cotton growing area has become under Bt. cotton (Australian Bt) with high incidence (60‐100%) of Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCV) infection. In Punjab, Bt cotton is grown on almost 80% areas with different names, i.e. Bt‐121and Bt‐131 with a range of segregation (10‐20%) in the fields of Bt cotton. MinFA has finalized and got approved from ECC an LOI and MoU with action plan to introduce Bt cotton variety and Bt Hybrid in Pakistan in collaboration with M/s Monsanto. Bt. Cotton: x Bt cotton is developed by Genetic Engineering techniques (Biotechnology). Bt cotton contains Genes from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt.) x Eight countries commercially grew Bt cotton (USA, Australia, China, India etc.). Protein of this gene is deadly for the Chewing Pests i.e. American, Army, Pink and Spotted worm but not for sucking pest like Mealy bug etc. x There may be 30% increase in cotton yield due to resistance against chewing pest and hence additional income to poor farmers in Pakistan. x The Bt. cotton varieties including Bt hybrids currently grown in Pakistan are from exotic sources which are given to farmers for cultivation without validating its performance and without providing production technologies based on research conducted according to local environment. x None of these planting materials have been imported legally and have not been tested so far according to rules and regulations set by Government agencies at Federal and Provincial levels. x As a rule and principle chalked out by Federal and Provincial Governments all the Bt cotton varieties/Hybrids, it has to pass through the procedures designed for testing and evaluation of these materials by Pakistan Central Cotton Committee (PCCC), Federal Seed Certification and Registration Department (FSC&RD), National Bio‐safety Committee (NBC), Department of Plant Protection (DPP) and provincial Seed Councils. x Private seed company M/s Aurega Lahore has sold Bt hybrid seed for an area of almost 10 thousand acres with the name as “White Gold” without following prescribed rule. x Another private seed company M/s Alseeme Multan has sold non Bt cotton hybrid for almost an area of 10 thousand acres without following prescribed rules. x All the Bt. cotton varieties grown are susceptible to Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCV) and sucking pest i.e. mealy bug, Jassid and White fly which are a major threat to cotton crop in Pakistan. x Most of the Bt cotton varieties were marketed with wrong notation of resistance to all pest. In some instances Bt. cotton seed was mixed with non‐Bt cotton seed and affected the yield. 17 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Economic Survey 2009‐10 x It is worth mentioning that Sitara, ARS‐802, ARS‐703, CEMB‐1, CEMB‐2, Neelum‐121, FH‐113, MG‐6 and Hybrid Bt GN‐2085 and GN‐31 are the only Bt cotton varieties/hybrid which is being introduced in Pakistan during next crop season following the rules and regulations designed by Federal and Provincial governments. x It is important to mention that during current year Pakistan Agricultural research Council (PARC) has imported almost 950 kg of five different Bt cotton seed from China under special permission for conducting trials directly on farmer fields without following the rules and regulations designed by NBC, PCCC, FSC & RD. ii) Sugarcane: Sugarcane is one of the major crops of Pakistan, grown in Kharif season. It provides raw material to sugar and sugar‐ related products. It generates income and employment for the farming community of the country. It helps in value addition to essential item for industries like sugar, chipboard and paper. Its share in value added of agriculture and GDP are 3.6 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. For 2009‐10, sugarcane has been sown in the area of 943 thousand hectares, 8.4 percent lower than last year (1029 thousand hectares). Sugarcane production for the year 2009‐10 is estimated at 49.4 million tons, against 50.0 million tons last year. This indicates a decline of 1.3 percent over the production of last year. Main factors contributing for lesser production are maximum area under wheat crop during 2008‐09 restricted the sugarcane acreage, shortage of canal water, load shedding of electricity, realization of lower prices in the preceding season and high rate of inputs also discouraged the farmers to grow more sugarcane crop. The area, production and yield per hectare for the last five years are given in Table 2.8 (see also Fig. 2.2) Fig: 2.2: Sugarcane Production (000 Tons) 69000 64000 59000 54000 49000 44000 39000 98‐99 99‐00 00‐01 01‐02 02‐03 03‐04 04‐05 05‐06 06‐07 07‐08 08‐09 09‐10 (P) Source: M/o Food and Agriculture, FBS Table 2.8: Area, Production and Yield of Sugarcane Area Production Yield Year (000 Hectare) % Change (000 Tons) % Change (Kgs/Hec.) % Change 2005‐06 907 ‐6.1 44666 ‐5.5 49246 0.7 2006‐07 1029 13.5 54742 22.6 53199 8.0 2007‐08 1241 20.6 63920 16.8 51507 ‐3.2 2008‐09 1029 ‐17.1 50045 ‐21.7 48635 ‐5.6 2009‐10(P) 943 ‐8.4 49373 ‐1.3 52357 7.7 P: Provisional (July‐March) Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Federal Bureau of Statistics. 18 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) The prospects for wheat harvest improved somewhat with healthy fertilizer off take and reasonable rainfall in pre harvesting period. Production and Yield per hectare of wheat for the last five years are given in Fig 2.3: Rice Production (000 Tons) 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 98‐99 99‐00 00‐01 01‐02 02‐03 03‐04 04‐05 05‐06 06‐07 07‐08 08‐09 09‐10 (P) Source: M/o Food and Agriculture.0 2346 6.7 percent less than last year crop.0 2387 1.8 6952 25.0 percent less than last year. showing a decrease of 0.04 percent over last year’s area of 9046 thousand hectares.1 2009‐10(P) 2883 ‐2. The size of wheat crop is provisionally estimated at 23864 million tons.accountancy. 2. respectively.pk) . as the growers were discouraged due to non‐payment of their dues in time by the sugar mills.Agriculture iii) Rice: Rice is an essential cash crop and one of the main export items of the country.3 2212 5. The area.4 and Table 2.5 5438 ‐2.0 2107 ‐0.) % Change 2005‐06 2621 4. The size of the crop is estimated at 6883 thousand tons 1. it occupies a central position in formulation of agricultural policies.9 and Fig 2. Production and Yield of Rice Area Production Yield Year (000 Hectare) % Change (000 Tons) % Change (Kgs/Hec. However.4 percent to the value added in agriculture and 3. Pakistan grows high quality rice to meet both domestic demand and for exports. It accounts for 6. 0.0 2008‐09 2963 17.7 percent less than last year.9: Area. The impact of water shortages (availability at farm gate) and lower rainfall during the sowing period has been the main reason for lesser acreage under wheat crop.7 P: Provisional (July‐March) Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture. Area and production target of wheat for the year 2009‐10 had been set at 9045 thousand hectares and 25 million tons. iv) Wheat: Wheat is the leading food grain of Pakistan and being staple diet of the people. FBS Table 2. Wheat was cultivated on an area of 9042 thousand hectares.4 percent in GDP.6 5563 2.10. It contributes 14.4 2007‐08 2515 ‐2.4 percent of value added in agriculture and 1.1 2006‐07 2581 ‐1.3.0 million tons.7 6883 ‐1.0 5547 10.4 2116 6. The Area. Area sown for rice is estimated at 2883 thousand hectares. production and yield of rice for the last five years are given in Table 2. In Punjab sugarcane area was also shifted to rice crop.com. Fig 2. 19 published by Accountancy (www.1 percent to GDP. the impact of lower acreage and water shortages is likely take its toll and wheat harvest is estimated to be lower than the 2009‐2010 targets of 25. Federal Bureau of Statistics. barley. stood at 5.4: Wheat Production (000 Tons) 25000 23000 21000 19000 17000 97‐98 98‐99 99‐00 00‐01 01‐02 02‐03 03‐04 04‐05 05‐06 06‐07 07‐08 08‐09 09‐10 P Source: M/o Food and Agriculture. 20 published by Accountancy (www.8 2007‐08 8550 ‐0.5 23295 9. maize.1 P:Provisional(July‐March) Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Fig 2. bajra and tobacco decreased by 6.500 1.7.8 2008‐09 9046 5.0 and 1.11.0. Production and Yield of Wheat Area Production Yield Year (000 hectares) % Change (000 tons) % Change (Kgs /Hec.0 2451 ‐9. 4.9 2006‐07 8578 1.000 500 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Source: State Bank of Pakistan v) Other Major Crops During 2009‐10. The production of jawar.0 percent during 2009‐10 due to reduction in area cultivated and unfavourable climatic change. the production of only rapeseed and mustard increased by 7.7 2657 8. 1.accountancy.000 3. 3.0 percent respectively during 2009‐10. The area and production of major crops are given in Table 2.5 2716 7.com.) % Changes 2005‐06 8448 1.000 1.6 2519 ‐1.9.500 Million US $ 3.4 million tons of last year showing a significant decrease of 23.7 million tons against 7.pk) . the largest Rabi pulses crop in Pakistan.000 2.5: Food Group Import 4.4 percent.4 2009‐10(P) 9042 ‐0.500 2.8 24033 14.7 2639 2.10: Area.3 20959 ‐10. FBS Table 2.04 23864 ‐0.1 21277 ‐1. Gram. Federal Bureau of Statistics Fig‐2. Federal Bureau of Statistics.6%.015 362 Rapeseed/ 577 188 62 Mustard Sunflower 929 598 227 Canola 172 88 33 Total 8. mash and chillies decreased by 16.240 389 160 51 872 554 211 142 76 29 9.680 million tons.2 % respectively.4 Mustard Tobacco 50 105 49 104 ‐1. which is 24 percent of the total availability in the country.12.6 % and 0. 20.591 486 2009‐10 (P) Production Seed Oil (000 Tons) (000 Tons) 3.78 billions has been imported.030 680 Source: Pakistan Oilseed Development Board ii) Other Minor Crops: The production of masoor. mash and chillies decreased by 24. During 2009‐10 (July‐March) 1. Table 2.889 684 P: Provisional (July‐March) Area (000 Acres) 7.13. the production of mung.7 % and 22. The total availability of edible oil in 2008‐09 was 2. Local production of edible oil stood at 684 thousand tons during 2008‐09.4%. rapeseed/mustard. 12.Agriculture Table 2. Total availability from all sources is provisionally estimated at 1. The local production during 2009‐10 (July‐March) is estimated at 0.0 Bajra 470 296 476 293 ‐1. 9. The area and production of oilseed crops during 2008‐09 and 2009‐10 is given in Table 2. However.647 3. onion and potato increased by 1. onion and potato.11: Area and Production of Other Major Kharif and Rabi Crops 2008‐09 2009‐10(P) % Change In Crops Area Production Area Production production (000 hectares) (000 tons) (000 hectares) (000 tons) KHARIF Maize 1052 3593 950 3487 ‐3.12: Area and Production of Major Oilseed Crops 2008‐09 Area Production Crops Seed Oil (000 Acres) (000 Tons) (000 Tons) Cottonseed 6. The decreased in these crops is mainly due to reduction of area under such crops as the area of mung. sunflower and canola etc.com.969 3.246 million tons edible oil which amounted to Rs.5% respectively. The area and production of minor crops are given in Table 2.9% respectively.0 P: Provisional (July‐March) Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture.0% and 15.091 4. 21 published by Accountancy (www. b) Minor Crops i) Oilseeds The major oilseed crops include cottonseed.0 Barley 86 82 80 78 ‐4.accountancy.0 Jawar 263 165 248 154 ‐6.6 %.7 RABI Gram 1081 741 1050 571 ‐23.821 million tons.pk) .749 million tons during 2009‐10 (July‐March).9 Rapeseed & 233 188 185 202 7. 77. While the remaining 76 percent was made available through imports. Timely rain supplemented to some extent for increasing production of masoor. Effective use of improved seed can result in higher agricultural production and increase net incomes of farming families.7 3205 25.2 percent.2 2006‐07 2747 ‐3.6 ‐ 2557 ‐ 2767 ‐ 132. Improving access to good quality seed is a critical requirement for sustainable agricultural growth and food security.5 P : Provisional Import 785 1268 796 876 568 416 968 (‘000’ N/tons) % % % Total Off‐take Change Change Change 2.6 13.7 P: Provisional (July‐March) 2009‐10 (P) %Change In Area Production Production (000 hectares) (000 tons) 35.0 2941.5 14.6 3672 ‐3. Seed is a high technology product and is an innovation most readily adapted.1 2005‐06 2832 4.9 1858.1 Chillies 73.0 2007‐08 2822 2. 22 published by Accountancy (www.5 ‐35.4 Mash 27.pk) .accountancy.0 2008‐09 (Jul‐Mar) 2141 ‐ 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) P 2237 4. 500 per bag of Sulphate of Potash (SOP)/ Muriate of Potash (MOP) has been announced. Table 2.1 3698 4.6 149. Nitrogen off‐take increased by 15. Main reasons for increased off‐take of fertilizers were affordable price of DAP and higher support price of wheat.9 14.4 percent while that of phosphate by 66.6 1.14: Production and Off‐take of Fertilizer Domestic % Year Production Change 2004‐05 2718 7.14) due to a subsidy of Rs.1 10.0 3804 3. availability of quality seed of improved varieties is essential to achieve the production target. 2009‐10) of the current fiscal year was up by 4.4 3581 ‐2. The import of fertilizer increased by 133 percent.6 1704.7 157.5 4100 17.0 3711 3.5 Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture.7 ‐24.8 187.1 3694 14. The domestic production of fertilizer during the first nine months (July‐March. the total availability of fertilizer also increased by 25.3 Onion 129.3 percent. Federal Bureau of Statistics II.7 3503 6.0 9. Seed is an important component in agriculture productivity system.0 57.2 3475 ‐6.4 183.7 2008‐09 2907 3.6 Potato 145.7 ‐0.6 15.8 Source: National Fertilizer Development Centre ii) Improved Seed: Improved high‐quality seed or planting material is the most desirable input for improving crop yield.0 ‐37.13 : Area and Production of Minor Crops 2008‐09 Area Production Crops (000 hectares) (000 tons) Masoor 30. Seed has the basic position among various agricultural inputs because the effectiveness of all other inputs mainly depends on the potential of seeds. Hence.0 3411.8 ‐20.3 3426 23. hence.2 3543 ‐13.9 141.3 118. Average retail sale prices of nitrogenous fertilizers increased while that of phosphate decreased considerably.8 percent (Table 2. Total off take of fertilizer surged by 23.5 10.6 61.44 186.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table‐2.5 percent. which has a positive impact on rural poverty.com.6 24.4 Mung 219. Farm Inputs i) Fertilizer: The Government has taken several significant steps to boost agricultural production over the last five years. basic seed lots and 20% of certified seed lots were carried out in the field to determine the quality of seed distributed by various seed agencies.82 thousand MT seeds of various crops were sampled and tested for purity. 1991 during the year so far at the port of entries i. oilseed‐4.pk) . germination and seed health purposes. “Up‐gradation of Seed Testing Laboratories to Meet WTO Requirements” and “Establishment of Seed Testing Laboratories and Rehabilitation of Existing Laboratories” have been successfully completed. Farm operations being time specific. x Fifteen crop varieties were approved (wheat‐4. The procurement and distribution of seeds of various Kharif crops (cotton. x A total quantity of 305. demand precision to optimize the efficiencies of 23 published by Accountancy (www.14 thousand acres of different crops offered by the various seed agencies were inspected for certification purposes. with all of its connotations. release and registration of candidate biotech crop varieties in Pakistan.accountancy. x Imported seed of various crops/hybrids at the tune of 17. x Under the provision of seed act enforcement. “Establishment of National Variety Data Bank” .Agriculture During 2009‐10 (July‐March). x Almost 1004 seed samples of various crops/vegetables and fruits were tested at the Central Seed Health Laboratory. fodder‐1. x Various Seed Development Projects are being run during 2009‐10 while three projects namely. The activities/achievements of the department during 2009‐10 are briefly given as under: x During the year 2009‐10. The Federal Seed Certification and Registration Department (FSC&RD) is engaged in providing seed certification coverage to public and private sector seed companies of Pakistan along with seed quality control services through its 28 seed testing laboratories and monitoring of seed quality in the market as well. iii) Mechanization: A demographic change towards urbanization reduces the size of rural workforce.e. a total of 523. x Pre and Post Control Trials of all pre‐basic. Cost effectiveness in the production of various crops brings built‐in competitive edge to low productivity attributed farmers. pulses‐3. 3140.85 million was tested under Labeling Seed (Truth‐in‐Labeling) Rules. 33 cases were filed in the different Courts of Law against the seed dealers found selling substandard seeds. cotton‐4. about 305. agriculture will also need to adopt new forms of mechanization and shift to land use intensification. paddy.com.55 thousand MT with a total value of Rs. Islamabad for detection of fungal and viral diseases using latest diagnosis techniques and protocols. Lahore and Karachi. High agricultural production assures food security and agriculture surpluses for export at competitive prices require efficient development and utilization of agricultural resources. maize.82 thousand tons of improved seed of various Kharif/Rabi/Spring/Winter season crops was distributed. nineteen new seed companies were registered raising the total number of registered seed companies to 611 in the country including four public sector seed companies and five multinationals. mungbean etc) is under progress. x During the period under report. and vegetable‐1) and thirty seven crop varieties were evaluated for registration. x Federal Seed Certification & Registration Department (FSC&RD) with the collaboration of Ministry Food & Agriculture and all stakeholders prepared the Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for evaluation. 3 Million Acre Feet (MAF).02 MAF compared to 24.com.accountancy. 2010 and joint Pak‐Iran Costal area survey by a combined locust survey team of both countries under the auspices of FAO is also in progress with effect from 1st April 2010 for one month. In this regard. 19. The department remained in regular coordination with all the Provincial Agriculture Extension Departments to meet any emergent demand of aerial spray. To bring more land under cultivation a project titled “Land and Water Resources Development Project for Poverty Reduction in Pakistan” envisaging providing 300 bulldozers (200 bulldozers Balochistan and 100 units to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) is under implementation.93 MAF during the same period last year.e.9 MAF during the same period last year. Pesticide Registration.0 percent and stood at 67. efficient and cost effective technologies to the farming community. the canal head withdrawals shows a slight change. 2. vital to meet the challenges of future scenario that need a comprehensive strategic loaning for future. as it remained at 25. The Survey of Locust potential areas in Balochistan is in progress since 1st February. to promote use of efficient and quality machinery & equipment etc. The future changes of free market economy and faster globalization have further necessitated modernization of agricultural machinery through transfer of latest.pk) .f. 2010 which remain continue up to 31st May. v) Irrigation The canal head withdrawals in Kharif 2009 (April‐September) have increased by 1. 1st June 2009 to 30th September 2009. 24 published by Accountancy (www. iv) Plant Protection Plant protection is an important agriculture input as it effectively contributes in achieving higher production by saving it from ravages of insect and disease pests. Efforts are underway by the department in order to get the new Pesticides Act passed by the parliament. Plant Quarantine Service. Environmental safeguards will also be improved with the collaboration of Ministry of Environment at manufacturing and formulation stages of pesticides. Further. therefore. Province‐wise details are given in Table 2.Economic Survey 2009‐10 agricultural input for higher productivity. Efficient use of scarce agriculture resources and accelerated agricultural mechanization are. at zero tariffs.262 million and handed over to Agriculture Extension Department of Balochistan on 2‐1‐2010 for improving quality control inspection and monitoring of pesticides in Balochistan province. 4. Testing and Management. During this period 6 border meetings with Indian counterparts were conducted on monthly basis at Khokhropar‐Monabao border for exchange of locust information. 3. A project of “Establishment of Pesticide Quality Control and Research Laboratory” Quetta has been completed in last five years by the Department of Plant Protection with a cost of Rs. Aerial Pest Control. the Department of Plant Protection (DPP) provides facilities such as Locust Survey and Control. During the Rabi season 2009‐10 (October‐March). This act will help in improving quality control inspection and monitoring in the field with the help of the provincial governments. as compared to 66. ridge and broad bed framing system are being encouraged in the country at concessional rates to the farmers. 1.15. Other interventions like use of laser land leveler. DPP has conducted Desert Locust Survey of Sindh and Punjab deserts w. the Federal Government has allowed import of agricultural machinery not being manufactured locally. The main areas of investments in water sector were: a. lining of irrigation channels.067 billion was spent for the improvement/remodeling of existing irrigating system.71 billion was spent for lining of irrigation channels in Punjab. Water is a key source for GDP growth and poverty alleviation.com.13 34. the water sector gained major focus throughout the last decade. despite economic and financial recession and transition economy in Pakistan.02 0 Source: Indus River System Authority. 25 published by Accountancy (www.pk) . Significantly enhanced public sector investment e.23 29.36 10.61 13.11 1 0 ‐1 13. therefore.accountancy.92 billion including water management programme (during 2009‐10). Protection of infrastructure from onslaught of floods d. surface and sub‐surface drainage. 16.57 29. Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. rehabilitation of irrigation system.06 1.93 67. x An amount of Rs.15: Canal Head Withdrawals (Below Rim Station) Provinces Punjab Sindh Baluchistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Total Million Acre Feet (MAF) Kharif (Apr‐Sep) 2008 Kharif (Apr ‐Sep) 2009 % Change in Kharif 2009 over 2008 Rabi (Oct‐Mar) 2008‐09 Rabi (Oct –Mar) 2009‐10 % Change in Rabi 2009‐10 Over 2008‐09 34. Construction of small & medium dams. poverty alleviation and well being of people is being come true through GDP enhancement.74 0.30 0.51 2.16.0 24.04 ‐2 0. Major water sector projects under implementation are given in Table 2. lining of watercourses.25 0.Agriculture Table 2.62 ‐16 66. Augmentation of water resources b. Conservation measures c.58 2. x A sum of Rs. The strategy is inline with the Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF) Program 2005‐2010 and also provides a benchmark for moving forward in the next five years. WATER SECTOR FISCAL PROGRAMMES DURING (2009‐10) x Works on Gomal Zam Dam Project is Tribal/Khyber Pakhtunkhwa area continues despite of law & order situation. 5. the challenge will be the formulation and effective implementation of a comprehensive set of measures for the development and management of water resources. 59.28 10. In this context.30 1. Water being a critical input to agriculture in arid and semi arid climate zone has been provided financial resources amounting to Rs.79 1 ‐1 31 1. The Government of Pakistan’s Vision for the welfare. Per capita water availability is diminishing as Pakistan’s population is increasing.94 25. 086 Oct.31 10. Million %Change 137.862 ‐ 412.29 5.33 28. 2010 1.66 25.55 110.535 June .829 1.2011 • RBOD‐III * Date of completion for all three canals is for Phase‐I.830.40 5. Zari Taraqiati Bank Limited (ZTBL) Zari Taraqiati Bank Limited (ZTBL) is the country’s premier financial institution providing financial services to agriculture sector.6 166.6 percent over the disbursement of Rs.24 28.749.16 3.940.560.557.16: Major Water Sector Projects under Implementation Total Live Storage Projects Location App.364.626.889.89 2009‐10 * 48.00 5.666.000 Kachhi Canal * Balochistan 31.com.101.46 22.530.707 Dec.05 80.8 211.344.534.641.2011 • RBOD‐II Balochistan 6.86 9.accountancy.2011 .4 168.177.87 74.397 0. In million) Khyber Gomal Zam Dam 12.938.19 7.cost (MAF) (Rs. 2011 • RBOD‐I Sindh 29.000 Phase‐I. 250 billion fixed for last year which indicates an increase of 11.49 2006‐07 56473.05 15.40 26.90 June.02 * : (July – March) Domestic Private Banks 16.pk) .931. and Domestic Private Banks.986. The Bank operates 26 published by Accountancy (www. Phase‐I June .38 23.138. The Agricultural Credit Advisory Committee (ACAC) has allocated Rs. comprising 62 percent of the total population.000 Raising of All over AJ&K 62.16 43. It is a key specialized Bank of Pakistan Providing affordable agriculture financial service to rural sector. five big Commercial Banks.3 233. completed June.467 ‐ Area Under Irrigation (Acres) Completion Date 163.60 3. Adequate availability and access to institutional credit is essential for accelerating the pace of agricultural development and ensuring Food Security in the country.5 Source: State Bank of Pakistan.14 67. 233 billion during the year 2008‐09. 2010 Multi‐ purpose RIGHT BANK OUT FALL DRAIN Sindh 14.474.553 2.579. in million) Total Rs.014 June . See Table 2. Table 2.1 151.204 ‐ 713.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 2.2010.023.988.92 41.399.53 85.45 2008‐09 75.860.594. institutional credit to farmers is being provided through Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited. 2010 Mangla Dam (30 ft) Pakistan Satpara Dam Skardu 4.538. Planning & Development Division v) Agricultural Credit: In order to cope with the increasing demand for agricultural credit.06 2007‐08 66.60 9.15 (Rs.976. Punjab Provincial Cooperative Bank Limited.17: Supply of Agricultural Credit by Institutions Commercial Year ZTBL PPCBL Banks 2005‐06 47.17.967.43 2008‐09 * 45.Phase‐I Rainee Canal * Sindh 18.393. whereas cost is reflected for total project Source: Water Resources Section.99 94.14 Pakhtunkhwa Greater Thal Canal * Punjab 30. 260 billion for the year 2009‐10 as compared to Rs.536 June. aquaculture and financing of oil seed crops. 3. 2. An increase of 1 percent implies that an additional 1. ZTBL alone serves about half a million farmers annually and has a share of around 28. Priority was also accorded to the provision of more credit for livestock. poultry. reducing soil fertility and contributing to the loss of plant and animal life. 648. tree planting campaigns are held each year. Awami Zarai Scheme x All new borrowers of crop production loans will have to avail revolving limit under Awami Zarai Scheme to get inputs through M/S KSSL under kind system.051 million hectares area has to be brought under forest cover by 2015. 27 published by Accountancy (www. Benazir Tractor Scheme x In order to bridge the gap between demand and supply position of tractors in the country. the Federal Government has decided to launch Accelerated Agricultural Mechanization for Productivity Enhancement. dairy farming. 2010. by regulating the climate and water resources and by serving as habitats for plants and animals. Defence organizations and NGOs were involved in planting activities. food fodder and medicines in addition to opportunities for recreation.000 tractors during 2009‐10 to the farmers to be selected through computerized balloting for grant of subsidy up to 50% of the cost of the tractor subject to maximum of Rs. NEW PRODUCTS INTRODUCED BY ZTBL 1. The bank so far has financed 532. their capacity to function as regulators of the environment is also lost. Measures to enhance forest cover x Mass Afforestation and Tree Planting Campaigns: In order to enhance tree cover in the country.6 percent of the total institutional agricultural credit. Rural Development Scheme x This Project is initiated to provide credit assistance for dairy. sheep & goat farming in the rural areas of AJ&K state especially in Earthquake affected areas. This scheme is optional for existing borrowers to the Bank. During the tree planting campaigns all the Government Departments.7 percent by the year 2011 and 6 percent by the year 2015. 200. Under Millennium Development Goals of Forestry sector. Forests also furnish a wide range of essential goods such as wood. III. “Benazir Tractor Scheme” through ZTBL.254 tractors and 148. Private organizations. and other services.pk) . x The scheme envisages supply of 10. Pakistan is committed to increase forest cover from existing 5. poultry farming.486 tube‐wells besides being the major source of financing for farm inputs including seeds. fertilizer. increasing floods and erosion hazards. Forestry Forests are crucial for the well being of humanity.313 billion.Agriculture through a country‐wide network of 26 Zonal Offices and 347 branches and a team of 1392 Mobile Credit Officers in the field.com.000 per beneficiary/tractor. They provide foundations of life on earth through ecological functions. the Bank has disbursed loan amounting to Rs. pesticides and insecticides. Forests are under pressure for expanding human and livestock populations with frequently leads to conversion or degradations of forests into unsustainable forms of land use.2 percent to 5.accountancy. Since inception up to March 31. When forests are lost or severely degraded. 28 published by Accountancy (www. IV. Improve Livestock service delivery.176 propagules of mangrove tree on 796 acres on an island at Keti Bundar in the Indus Delta.Economic Survey 2009‐10 x By 2030. The emphasis will be on improving per unit animal productivity and moving from subsistence to market oriented and then commercial livestock farming in the country to meet the domestic demand and surplus for export. In order to enhance tree cover in the country. tree planting campaigns are held each year. with an overall aim to promote an integrated ocean wide approach to coastal zone management. Livestock and Poultry A. Public Private Partnership led development. 4.accountancy. Food Security. 5. x Prime Minister of Pakistan declared 18th August as National Tree Planting Day (NTPD). Subsequently. However. meeting national demands for wood and contributing positively to mitigate global environmental problems. Pakistan joined MFF as dialogue country in 2008. This was to be achieved by inducing a culture and sense of ownership among the public for forest conservation and trees cultivation through an extensive but systematic and organized awareness campaign involving print and electronic media.com. This event was organized by the Forestry Wing of Ministry of Environment in collaboration with the Sindh Forest Department and National Bank of Pakistan. Poverty Alleviation. providing sustainable livelihood to dependent communities.pk) . 6. MFF will also include other countries of the Region that face similar issues. National Economic growth. 3. 2009. three hundred planters form the local communities planted 541. Pakistan will be managing all types of forests on ecosystem approach. x Mangroves for the Future (MFF) initiative focus on the countries worst‐affected by the tsunami. On 18 August 2009 massive plantation was carried out throughout Pakistan with the help of Provincial Forest Departments and Federal line Ministries/agencies. in October 2009 Pakistan’s National Coordinating Body for the MFF was decided that Pakistan will prepare its draft National Strategy & Action Plan (NSAP) as per requirements of Regional Steering Committee of MFF hosted by IUCN and UNDP to become regular member of this regional programme. enabling them to perform potential functions of conserving biodiversity. The livestock development strategy revolves around the following: 1. 2. x Pakistan has set a new Guinness World Record in maximum tree planting during 24 hours on July 15. Expand opportunities for livelihood needs of farmers. During the year 2009‐10 forests have contributed 93 thousand cubic meters of timber and 263 thousand cubic meters of firewood as compared to 89 thousand cubic meters timber and 258 thousand cubic meters firewood in 2008‐09. Livestock The overall thrust of Government livestock policy is to foster “private sector‐led development with public sector providing enabling environment through policy interventions and play capacity building role for improved livestock husbandry practices”. Underlying objective of celebration of NTPD is to address deforestation and associated environmental problems being faced by the nation through motivation and involvement of all segments of the society in tree plantation campaign. 2 percent of the agriculture value added and 11.4 percent to national GDP during 2009‐10.978 14. Livestock plays an important role in the economy of the country. the production of which for last three years is given in Table 2. reduce poverty.231 27.965 1.843 2.pk) . Enhance Foreign Exchange Earnings. increase in per capita income and export revenue is fueling the demand of livestock and livestock products.655 578 590 603 601 652 707 Source: Ministry of Livestock and Dairy Development Note: 1.601 1.064 35. The population growth.437 14.191 43. This 29 published by Accountancy (www.279 35 36 36 700 719 739 787 798 808 2.546 26.550 11. In order to speed up the pace of development in livestock sector. achieve sustainable economic growth and expand opportunities to address the needs of livestock rural farmers and to protect the livelihood concerns of rural community.160 36.8 percent as compared to previous year. Livestock sector contributed approximately 53. 4.299 11. Gross value addition of livestock at current factor cost has increased from Rs. 2008‐09 and 2009‐10 are calculated by applying milk production parameters to the projected population of 2007‐08.991 21.437 20.982 15.622 22. The major products of livestock are milk and meat.028 27.18: Milk and Meat Production Species Milk (Gross Production) Cow Buffalo Sheep2 Goat Camel2 Milk (Human Consumption)3 Cow Buffalo Sheep Goat Camel Meat4 Beef Mutton Poultry meat Units 000 Tons “ “ “ “ “ 000 Tons “ “ “ “ 000 Tons “ “ “ 2007‐081 2008‐091 2009‐101 42.com.18: Table 2.Agriculture 7. The figures for meat production are of red meat and do not include the edible offal’s. 2008‐09 and 2009‐10 based on the inter census growth rate of livestock census 1996‐2006. 3. 2008‐09 and 2009‐10 are calculated after adding the production of milk from camel and sheep to the figures reported in the livestock census 2006. Milk for human consumption is derived by subtracting 20% (15% wastage in transportation and 5% in calving) of the gross milk production of cows and Buffalo.549 1. Poultry Poultry sector is one of the organized and vibrant segments of agriculture industry of Pakistan.6 billion (2008‐09) to Rs.accountancy. The figures for milk and meat production for the years 2007‐08.562 44.728 2.848 35 36 36 700 719 739 787 798 808 34. 1537. 2.While other development sector experienced saturation and decline there has been an increase in livestock sector in 2009‐10.985 12. 1304.5 billion (2009‐10) showing an increase of 17. The Ministry of Livestock & Dairy Development was created as a part of Reform Agenda and political commitment of present Government to improve service delivery. B. The figures for the Milk production for the year 2007‐08. processing and value addition. Women Livestock Extension Worker (WLEW). 8. animal husbandry and management procedures in the country. monitoring and reporting system.000 tons of quality beef and more than 2.accountancy.pk) . improvement of disease diagnosis. and x Established National Epidemiology Net work for Livestock Disease Surveillance and Reporting. 08 Slaughter houses and 20 butcheries in Private Sector.000 tons of mutton have been produced. C. It is assisting in the establishment of 2590 fattening farms (1040 beef and 1550 mutton). Poultry meat contributes 23. 15. Rural Poultry Support Model (RPSM) x Introduced Pest Des Petites Ruminants (PPR) vaccine production in the country.Economic Survey 2009‐10 sector generates employment (direct/indirect) and income for about 1. The major achievements of the project includes:‐ x Formed 207 Milk Producer Groups (MPG) in all the four provinces.Dairy Farmers Cooperative Model (DFCM) . Livestock Production & Development of Meat Production This project is of five years duration (2005‐2010) and has total allocation of Rs. breed improvement. It envisages poultry sectors growth of 15‐ 20 percent per annum. Mega Development Projects The Government has substantially increased public sector investment and has initiated mega development project for strengthening Livestock services for improved disease diagnosis and control.66 million. hi‐tech poultry production under environmentally –controlled housing. Milk Collection Processing and Dairy Production & Development Programme This project is of five years duration (2005‐2010) and has total allocation of Rs. The strategy revolves around Improving regulatory framework.8 billion. 1520 million. 1992.000 to 20. eggs and value added products to the local and international markets at competitive prices and aimed at facilitating and support private sector‐led development for sustainable poultry production.5 million people. need based research and development and farmers training & education. milk and meat production. Vaccine production particularly against newly emerging and trans‐boundary Animal Disease and capacity building of veterinary staff. More than 10. 1588 million. The major achievements of the project are:‐ x Field studies on 05 models of service delivery are in progress: Community Animal Health Extension Worker (CAHEW). Azad Jammu & Kashmir and 30 published by Accountancy (www. The progress is an under: Strengthening of Livestock Services Project (SLSP) Project is of Seven years duration (2003‐2010) with total cost of Rs. Improving bio‐security. Wool Producers Association. The Ministry of Livestock & Dairy Development is presently executing seven (07) projects in Livestock sector at an estimated cost of Rs. to enhance efficiency and effectiveness of delivery of livestock services.Poultry Development Policy visions sustainable supply of wholesome poultry meat. These projects were approved during the last 3 to 4 years. The project is aimed at to eradicate rinderpest disease from the country.000 additional breeding animals of better genetic potential for milk production will become available in the project area.com. Under this project more than 9000 feed‐lot fattening operations have been completed in which more than 8. disease control and genetic improvement in rural poultry.8 percent of the total meat production in the country .000 rural subsistence dairy farmers are likely to enter into the milk marketing chain due to project interventions. The project aimed at establishment of Embryo Transfer Technology Center.Agriculture Northern Area.5 million as compensation to Avian Influenza affected farmers.e. Improving Reproductive Efficiency of Cattle and Buffaloes in smallholder’s production system This project is of five years duration (2007‐2010) and has total allocation of Rs. x Establishment of Bio security Lab. 100 percent achievement x Quality medicines/vaccines are available to rural farmer at 30 percent reduced cost as compared market prices x 3000 number of rural community persons have been trained by imparting one month training in basic veterinary services through livestock Government institutes x 44265 rural livestock female farmers have been trained in better animal husbandry practices to enhance their income through enhanced milk productivity.4 million samples of blood.2 million tons per annum respectively. 1180.142 million. x Registered 1004 Sindhi.com. x Installed 150 milk cooling tanks. The major achievements achieved under this project are:‐ x 290 veterinary clinics have been established providing veterinary services at 70 percent reduced cost to rural farmer at their door steps i.pk) .15 million. National Programme for the control and prevention of Avian Influenza This project is of three years duration (2007‐2010) having total allocation of Rs.accountancy. x Disbursed Rs. x The project collected and analyzed 190. The project is aimed at Development Avian Influenza (Al) Surveillance & Reporting System & Handling Al outbreaks strengthening diagnostic capabilities & Al vaccine quality control in country. The center will produce 5000 embryo per year for farm use and supply to 31 published by Accountancy (www. 23. Semen Production and Processing Center. Prime Minister’s Special Initiative for Livestock (PMSIL) This project is of 05 years duration (2005‐2010) having total allocation of Rs.000 swab samples and more than 200. Strengthening of Provincial Semen Production Units and Support of semen Production in private sector. 495. after the completion of the project. It is aimed at enhancing the livestock productivity through the provision of livestock production and extension services at farmer’s doorsteps. x Provided 63.‐3 is under process. targeting 13 million rural poor in 1963 union council in 80 districts of the country. Sahiwal and NiliRavi livestock breeders for production of quality breeding animals. Its activities will assist in the production of additional milk and meat to the tune of 12 million liters and 0.3 tons of fodder seeds and 663 tons of animal ration/feed on cost basis to the members of MPGs. tissues & swabs for screening against Avian Influenza. 66 Rapid Response Units (RRUs). x Pakistan is maintaining Avian Influenza (bird flu) free status since June 2008. 1992 million. The major achievements of this project are:‐ x Established 40 Surveillance unit.000 blood samples. x Processed 0. 132 million during the year 2009‐10.834 Artificial Insemination and transferred embryos in79 animals.0 million. mutton beef. 5500 million during 2009‐10. x 02 new AQS are being established at Khunjrab and Khokhrapar. New Initiative Ministry of Livestock & Dairy Development has conceived and initiated new projects worth of Rs.Economic Survey 2009‐10 others:‐ x Civil work of Embryo Transfer Technology Centre at Okara has completed. 1000 million against which a token amount of Rs. 20. Up gradation and Establishment of Animal Quarantine Stations in Pakistan This project is of five years of duration (2006‐2011) having total allocation of Rs. D. eggs and other livestock products 32 published by Accountancy (www. study its various strain. 1500 million regarding establishing National Camel Research & Extension Network in the country. The farms will be managed by the Members of the community farm on commercial basis in specifically designed animal sheds with facilities of fodder and water management as well as recycling of organic wastes to produce biogas/compost/electricity.0 billion will be initiated on conclusion of feasibility study in 2009‐10. the Animal Quarantine Department (AQD) provided quarantine services and issued 18729 Health Certificates for the import of live animals.accountancy. A feasibility study “Establishment of National Research & Extension Network” is under implementation at a cost of Rs. A national program worth of Rs.498 semen doses and 640 embryos from elite exotic animals for cross breeding purposes. x Carried out 10.0 million is allocated for the year 2009‐10. It is aimed at undertaking studies on Foot and Mouth Disease prevalence. During 2008‐09.390 million.3539. The project is aimed at improving quarantine facilities and establishing new entry/exit points to facilitate trade of animal and animal products:‐ x 05 Animal Quarantine Stations (AQS) have been up‐graded in order to facilitate import/export of livestock and its products. The project envisages establishing 400 smallholders’ livestock farms in the country specifically designed to cater the needs of poor farmers and landless livestock smallholders.pk) . The objective of the feasibility study is to develop PC‐I regarding establishment of Halal Food Certification System in Pakistan. The allocation for the year 2009‐10 is Rs. Poverty Reduction through Small holder Livestock Development at a total cost of Rs. 10. The project will assist in developing PC‐I with a total cost of Rs. and x Provided training to Artificial Insemination Technicians. x Embryo Transfer Technology Centre has produced 75. A feasibility study titled “Progressive Control of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in Pakistan” is under implementation. prepare control strategy and establish modern Foot and Mouth Disease vaccine production facility in the country. 9. 336 million. 3. PC‐II (Feasibility studies) of the following projects is underway: A feasibility study project on “Establishment of Halal Food Certification system in Pakistan” was proposed at a total cost of Rs.com. are also being implemented to provide improved quality control services to the seafood export industry.pk) . mutton & camel meat) during 2006‐07 was US $ 47. tons of fish and fishery products were exported earning US$ 236 million. development of value added products. The renovation work will be completed by December 2010. the project “Stock assessment survey programme in EEZ of Pakistan through chartering Research vessel and capacity building of Marine Fisheries Department”. is aimed to charter a suitable vessel of conducting stock assessment resource surveys in the coastal and offshore waters of Pakistan. 40. A part from marine fisheries. inland fisheries (based in river.44 percent. increased production through aquaculture. V. up‐gradation of socio‐economic conditions of the fishermen’s community. Fisheries Fishery plays an important role in Pakistan’s economy and is considered to be a source of livelihood for the coastal inhabitants.4 million in 2008‐09 showing an increase of 56 percent.) is also very important activity through out the country. tons meat from Pakistan annually. Government of Pakistan is taking a number of fruitful steps to improve fisheries sector which include inter alia strengthening of extension services. a total of 134. dams etc. During the period July‐March 2009‐10 the total marine and inland fish production was estimated 33 published by Accountancy (www. Two other projects i. Marine Fisheries Department is executing two development projects i. The data collected during the survey have been analyzed and cruise report has been prepared and submitted to concerned agencies.64 million as compared to US $ 74.N. including Exclusive Economic Zone.2 million while live animals export was US$ 13.accountancy.000 M.C A hatchery complex was established under the auspices of a development project entitled “Established of hatchery complex for production of seeds of fish and shrimps” in 2001 is being renovated from funds provided by Fisheries Development Board. These two projects are aimed to get the laboratories of the Marine Fisheries Department accredited with international bodies and meet the requirements of ISO 17025. Fisheries share in GDP although very little but it adds substantially to the national income through export earnings. enhancement of per capita consumption of fish.000 m. It also aimed to improve the human resources capabilities of the department by inducting trained manpower and also to provide training to existing staff and officers. The AQD generated non‐tax revenue of Rs. For this purposes Iranian research vessel was chartered and first trip of stock assessment survey was undertaken during 30th October to 7th November 2009. ponds.00 million fixed for 2008‐09. it is expected that export of meat during the year 2009‐10 may exceed well beyond 2008‐09 figures. introduction of new fishing methodologies. The meat export (beef.A.7 million US$.e.e. 54. showing an increase of 26. During the year 2008‐09. “Accreditations of quality control laboratories of Marine Fisheries Department” and Establishment of Integrated National Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (NAPHIS) (MFD component). The project is also aimed to strengthen Marine Fisheries Department by capacity building to conduct resource survey and stock assessment on regular basis and to develop management strategy for the fish exploitation and utilization.Agriculture having a value of more than 201. lakes. The export of meat (beef. mutton & camel meat) from July to January 2009‐10 is to the tune of US $ 60. With the current pace.38 million which exceeded the target of Rs. Microbiological and Chemical Laboratories were Accredited by the Norwegian Accreditation Agency under ISO/IEC‐17025 will now be got accredited from P.95 million.com. Malaysian Government has shown interest to import 60. industrial and agriculture sector is shown in Table. The shortage of water particularly in Rabi season has further aggravated the ongoing water Agriculture crisis. There is an increase of 1. Pakistan possesses the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system commonly called as Indus Basin Irrigation system.5 1282 water storage infrastructure at Baghlihar and 2010 167.pk) . Fig‐1: Uses of Water Industry Domestic uses Consumption Pattern of Water The consumption pattern of water in domestic. Mangla and Chashma).com. to India under the Indus 1991 115 1565 Waters Treaty 1960. 1981 84 2129 Sutlej and Beas. Table‐ 1: Uses of Water Sectors Percentage Agriculture 69% Industry 23% Domestic uses 8% Source: Ministry of Environment 8% 23% 69% Source: M/O Environment Emerging Issues • Water Shortage: Pakistan is one of the world's most arid countries. tons was for marine and the remaining was produced by inland fishery sector. Conservation & Management in Pakistan Water is essential for sustenance of life in all forms and fresh water is a finite resource. after the loss of 3 major rivers. Source: Planning Commission 34 published by Accountancy (www. progressively becoming scarcer due to persistent increases in its competing demands.141 M. Whereas the Production for the July‐March 2008‐09 was estimated to be 914.4 858 Pakistan. The onset of climate change and global 1951 34 5260 warming is likely to severely affect the 1961 46 3888 availability of water. Ravi. Irrigated agriculture is the backbone of the national economy. Pakistan’s estimated current per capita water availability of around 1. According to the benchmark water scarcity indicator (the Faulkenmark Indicator).Economic Survey 2009‐10 952. is threatening to disrupt the 2020 195. India’s construction of 2002 139.accountancy. tons in which 660. tons out which 667.066 M3 (Table 2) places it in the “high water stress” category (Table 3).3 million hectares (35 million acres) and encompasses the Indus River and its major tributaries.5 915 uninterrupted flow of water downstream into 2025 208. The system includes three large reservoirs (Tarbela.141 M. The demand for water is increasing rapidly while the opportunities for further development of water resources or maintaining their use to existing levels are diminishing.1 and Fig‐1 as percentage of total use.735 M. 23 barrages/ headworks /siphons.7 1066 Kishanganga.800 km to serve over 140. tons was marine production and the remaining catch come from inland waters. with an average rainfall of under 240 mm a year. The level of agricultural production is directly related to the availability and effective use of water as a major input.762 M. Special Section: Water Availability. To aggravate the 1971 65 2751 situation. 12 inter‐river links and 45 canal commands extending for about 60.000 farmer operated watercourses.3 percent in the quantity compared to the last year. Table‐2: Per Capita Water Availability • The water shortage scenario in Pakistan is Population Per Capita Water further aggravated with high variability of Year (Million) Availability (M3) rainfall. It commands an area of about 14. Users at tail end of canal commands ii. The design of system was for 60% cropping intensity and now the cropping intensity has crossed over 120%. urban and rural water supply and sanitation.irrigation and drainage. In comparison. India 33%. Water production in Pakistan is less than 0.Agriculture Compounding lower availability is the issue of inadequate water storage. hydropower and environment protection. and acts as a “force multiplier” in the national economy. A joint management mode needs to be devised as area water boards and farmer’s organizations. As population size increases. The current per capita water availability at 1066 m3/person is low. the storage capacity of Colorado is 497%.pk) . that requires to concentrate on water resource development. serious concerns exist with respect to spending common pool money to the benefit of selected groups in the absence of policy on equity. The institutions need redefining of their roles and to develop their capacities according to new responsibilities. Equity: Water provides prosperity and jobs. Ownership.39 kg/m3 in India. Innovative Knowledge Based Management: Challenges of the 21st century require the frontiers of knowledge and innovative approaches rather than historic practices. resources become scarce in terms of per capita the same is in case with Water Resources that are statistic in nature we may conserve and manage them only. Pakistan stores around 40% of the world’s average in terms of storage. Further the cropping pattern on which water demands and withdrawals were worked out was not supposed to cater to crops like sugarcane and rice which require high water use. The system maintenance also requires a lot more attention due to deferred maintenance over the last 100 years. industrial water supply . The disadvantaged groups are: i. Aging and Outdated Infrastructure: Pakistan is blessed with one of the largest contiguous irrigation infrastructure.accountancy. it was designed for water requirements of the 20th century and not for the 21st century. with Pakistan in the category of a high water stress country (Table‐2). Nile 347%. However. However. Farmers outside Indus Basin 35 published by Accountancy (www. professionals and revenue collectors. Per Capita availability Per Capita Availability (M)3 Fig‐2 Water Availability Vs Population Growth Population Growth 6000 5000 230 180 4000 130 3000 2000 80 1000 30 0 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2002 2010 2020 Population (Million) • 2025 Source:Planning Commission Table‐3: Water Scarcity Indicators (Faulkenmark Indicator) >1700M3 /Capita Water Scarcity Rare <1700M3 /Capita Country faces seasonal or regular water‐stressed conditions <1000M3/Capita Water shortages hamper the health and well being of the human beings‐ Economic activities are affected <500M3/Capita Shortages are severe constraints to human life Source: IRSA • • • • • Low Water Productivity: Whatever water is available is utilized in an inefficient manner. while Pakistan has just 9% storage capacity.com.1 kg/m3 as compared to 0. Reforms and Joint Management: The irrigation infrastructure operation and on‐farm practices need ownership of the stakeholders such as farmers. Pakistan got full rights on its Western rivers i. the Indus Waters Treaty was signed by India and Pakistan.com. Mangla and Chashma with an original total storage capacity totaling 18. with minimum recorded so far as low as 97 MAF and maximum 172 MAF.92 Mangla 5. Table‐5: Loss of Storage of Reservoirs Reservoir Original Gross Live Dead Tarbela 11. Irrigation releases from the reservoirs are planned by the Indus River System Authority (IRSA).79 MAF in 2000‐01.Economic Survey 2009‐10 iii.62 9.pk) .18 MAF about 27 percent has lost due to sedimentation. annual diversion at the barrages for irrigation purposes is about 104 MAF. 43 canal commands and 100.45 0.34 Chashma 0. The average annual runoff of these rivers is 140 MAF.48 MAF. Rain & Glaciers in Upper Indus Basin Flows Location Snow (%) Rain (%) River Indus above Tarbela 30‐35 5‐10 River Jhelum above Mangla 65 35 River Kabul above Nowshera 20‐30 20‐30 Glaciers (%) 60‐80 ‐‐ 30‐35 Source: WAPDA In 1960. Flow of Indus basin depends heavily upon the glaciers of Western Himalayas. with a maximum of 91.80 0.06 15. Indus.10 63% 62% 4. Table‐4: Contribution of Snow.21 21% 0.67 32% 1.75 2.54 4.58 1. The surface water of the Indus system is utilized through 19 barrages.87 Total 18.69 1. Jhelum and Chenab. groundwater etc.41 15% 76% 0.15 0. data shows that a substantial amount of water escapes below Kotri to the Arabian Sea. 12 links canals. Consequently it is becoming difficult for IRSA to fulfill the demand of provinces during Rabi. According to this treaty. Various sources of river flows are shown in Table‐4.37 MAF.72 0.88 5.37 Gross 3. Farmers using groundwater with options of costly diesel/electricity Water Resources of Pakistan consists mainly of rainfall. agriculture of Pakistan is facing shortage during low‐flow season. The Monsoon and Western disturbances.18 0. According to Indus River System Authority (IRSA) the shortage has gone up to 30 percent. The data shows that post‐construction of Tarbela (1976‐2008) average annual escapages below Kotri are 31.67 4. There are three primary storage reservoirs at Tarbela. The reservoirs regulate the natural flows for irrigation purposes and hydropower generation and help in utilizing the stored water during the low‐flow season.95 11. Corresponding to this. Due to loss storage.92 0.accountancy.77 Dead 1.54 0.62 12. 36 published by Accountancy (www.25 27% 48% Source: WAPDA Escapage to Sea Despite acute water shortage in the system.42 30% (MAF) Loss Live Dead 2.95 Present Live 6.18 1.32 0.e. rivers.000 tertiary irrigation commands (Chaks). Kabul. Most of the flow to the sea occurs during Kharif season and very little during Rabi season. There are two major sources of rainfall in Pakistan.75 MAF of live storage of reservoir 4.13 0.37 Gross 7. Loss of storage of reservoirs is given below in Table‐5.26 0.83 MAF in 1994‐95 and minimum of 0. glacier.55 63% 5.74 30% 39% 0. From 15. the estimated additional water needs to meet the municipal water supply. rural potable and sanitation industry and environment are estimated at 8 MAF (as per National Water Policy. However. Climate Change Impact Pakistan has been cited as amongst the most vulnerable group due to Extreme weather. Water demand management Water availability is diminishing with a growing population and increasing urbanization. Future Strategic Areas to Combat Water Security Risk The following core areas require immediate attention while formulating contingency action plan and management/policy plans: a) b) c) d) Water demand management Climate change impacts in Pakistan Potential use of saline water Asset protection of irrigation infrastructure a. The climate change requires the following actions e. There is no regular and proper monitoring of private tubewells capacity. the useable groundwater is confined to an area of 10 million hectares. change in temperature +rainfall. depending upon the quality.4 MAF of groundwater contribution and 3 MAF of rainfall harvesting. 117 MAF water is required for irrigation by the provinces.accountancy. Potential offsets • Need for carry over dams • Efficient irrigation (water conservation & demand management) • Controlling population growth rate • Changed cropping pattern 37 published by Accountancy (www. Potential Impacts • • • • Glaciers melting. The surface water and groundwater and all canal commands are being used in conjunctive environment. Water Availability and Requirement Gap According to the Water Accord 1991. The need for better water demand management is well established. The water resources available for future development are 36 MAF of river flow 6. 2003).g.pk) . thus causing subsidence. Droughts. In many canal commands. agriculture requirements.com. Besides. their pumping hours and utilization.Agriculture Groundwater Groundwater under the Indus Irrigation System is plentiful and is derived from infiltration of surface water as well as local rainfall. Change in Rainfall Pattern. The development of this resource is through private tubewells and account for a gross abstraction of about 40 MAF per annum. Flood Event. The following represent some areas of immediate attention: • • • • Promoting efficient use Pricing water better Optimizing cropping pattern Integrated use and recycling of water b. pumpage is greater than recharge. 229 tube wells (mostly private) to supplement the canal supplies.000 water courses. This is because as silt builds up in their beds. social and environmental returns on the water resource development. d. allocation among its competing demands. Today’s groundwater pumpage is around 50 MAF which can be increased by harnessing additional 25 MAF pumpage of saline water and utilization of saline drainage surplus of 3‐ 5 MAF. The bio‐saline technology is to be promoted. The natural state of heavily‐silt laden river Indus is to meander. massive. Asset Protection of Irrigation Infrastructure Pakistan has the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world which commands an area of 42 million acres. Over time. however there is less likelihood that new water storage projects could be completed in next 3‐4 years. The System has three major reservoirs. The Investment in building knowledge base and the accompanying institutional and human systems is Key for efficient operation of the massive irrigation works. Conclusion: It is important to ensure water security for the people through a national water policy laying down the outlines of an integrated water management strategy that aims at maximizing the sustainable economic. throughout the world. Saline water potential Pakistan’s groundwater aquifer consists of join layers of fresh and saline waters and the proportional percentage of these layers varies from place to place.pk) . such rivers have been trained and confined by embankments within relatively narrow beds.Economic Survey 2009‐10 c. 38 published by Accountancy (www. and it has invested in it massively. its use by consumers and safe disposal of post‐use effluents. the likelihood of embankment breaching increases from floods. The total length of the canal system is about 64000 Km. highly complex interconnected ecosystem. The investment will be required in future adoption of bio‐ saline agricultural technology. the system also utilizes an estimated 42 MAF of ground water pumped through more than 921. Pakistan is extra‐ordinary dependent on its water infrastructure. the water and salt balances seek new equilibriums. This creates havoc with human settlements and so. 19 barrages. When a dam or barrage is constructed the water and sediment cycles are changed dramatically.com. 12 inter‐ river link canals. Pakistan needs more water.accountancy. The Indus River and its western tributaries on an average bring about 142 million acre feet (MAF) of water annually and the average annual canal withdrawal is 104 MAF. When water is diverted onto deserts. The Indus Basin is a single. upon which man has left a huge footprint. the rivers seek lower lands and change their courses. 45 independent irrigation canal systems and more than 110. 7 268.5 118. Jul-Mar 1980-81 Base Food Fibre crops crops 122.5 146.1 148.6 150.8 133.4 1995-96 163.6 209.3 1997-98 186.0 137.5 223.6 191.2 1998-99 189.1 207.9 243.1 147.9 2001-02 172.8 136.5 137.0 140.0 123.pk) .0 142.1 - All major crops 100 93 97 104 107 104 101 117 126 114 112 1999-2000 Base Food Fibre Other crops crops crops 100 100 100 91 95 94 85 94 104 92 91 112 95 89 115 106 127 102 107 116 96 115 114 118 108 104 138 124 105 108 122 113 106 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.5 170.1 130.7 135.accountancy.1 (A) INDEX OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Fiscal All major Year crops 1991-92 143.5 305.0 252.9 253.8 256.com.9 124.7 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 P P : Provisional.0 1993-94 155.7 - Other crops 120.9 165.TABLE 2.3 164.3 1996-97 155.4 2000-01 165.0 1994-95 165.6 159.2 219.7 1992-93 141.0 216.2 152.4 2003-04 190.8 1999-00 178.9 143.7 160.2 153.7 167.1 2002-03 185.6 239. 561 233.314 58.00 3.1 (B) BASIC DATA ON AGRICULTURE Fiscal Year 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 P .646.00 3.00 3.02 178.00 2.694.711.222.14 22.10 2.05 2.73 23.56 23.78 137.187 19.72 22.59 22.146.426.93 63.446 108.78 133. : not available P : Provisional.830 211.com.07 218.832.04 22.964. Jul-Mar * : At farm gate Cropped Area (million hectares) 21.474 168.63 305.77 218.00 3.85 23.82 21.929.392 42.010 166.65 130.87 22.27 76.80 191.674 22.61 2.30 193.86 142.583.335 (Contd.50 167.00 3.63 134.85 132.94 22.00 2.01 129.90 1..147.57 172.27 65.TABLE 2.198 15.86 22.00 Credit disbursed (Rs million) 14.13 23.62 122.60 264.38 194.67 314.10 137.05 125.00 Fertilizer off-take (000 N/T) 1892.852 39.00 2.04 3.12 128.733 137.581.01 2.80 142.87 145.05 122.04 22.pk) .80 Improved seed distribution (000 Tonnes) 83.) published by Accountancy (www.74 22.00 2.accountancy.12 226.672.548 33.515.48 134.78 23.82 Water* Availability (MAF) 119.183.884.413.790 52.78 135.479 16.80 2.020.373 19.915 14.915 73.44 21.804.12 21.00 3.85 22.68 137.93 63.15 133.00 3.80 23.77 134.688 44.00 2.28 134.67 130.44 142. 015 24.050 1996-97 506.1 (B) BASIC DATA ON AGRICULTURE Number of Fiscal Tube wells Year (a) 1990-91 339.9 684 555. E : Estimated Milk (000 Tonnes) 15.120 18.226 1999-00 609.311 2.970 23.1 347 925.581 10.872 15.242 1.5 436 614.114 16.215 24.077 1.811 28.0 373 * 885.685 16.294 2005-06 999.2 266 * 573.6 282 * 604.TABLE 2.229 .438 31.580 24.160 36.906 35.com.876 25.099 1993-94 444.840 1991-92 355.0 363 914.101 2.962 2003-04 950.006 18.229 2009-10 P 921.843 69.728 60.824 1997-98 531.569 2006-07 931.038 1.132 36.840 1992-93 374.9 265 * 640.6 472 * 637.970 32.188 44.463 1995-96 485..121 1.273 2002-03 768.515 54. Ministry of Food and Agriculture published by Accountancy (www.129 2.306 2007-08 921.mtr. Federal Bureau of Statistics.072 553.5 720 589. : not available P : Provisional (July-March) * : Revised Production of Production Tractors of meat (Nos) (000 Tonnes) 13.0 1.618 53.481 16.7 343 597.885 1.179 1994-95 463.pk) .278 2001-02 707.7 691 558.431 2.8 487 * 566.072 27.965 (a) : Public and private tube wells.259 1998-99 563.966 22.280 17.561 2.064 35.284 27.908 14.245 2.1 491 621.841 10.841 1.553 2.8 364 629.986 34. 2.957 32.7 356 Source: 1.063 2.642 2.598 2.299 Fish Total Production Forest Production (000 Tonnes) (000 cu.0 386 654.144 2004-05 984.059 2.) 483.1 703 541.775 2000-01 659.628 1.000 17.218 1.095 2.5 313 * 580.841 26.accountancy.031 27.121 2008-09 921.566 26.624 29.271 49. 28 3.61 57.61 59.87 5.50 3.35 8.19 2008-09 79.56 4.09 2000-01 79.52 23.44 3.52 23.67 16.39 8. published by Accountancy (www.40 22.60 24.61 57.45 9.80 24.60 24.61 3.20 P : Provisional Note: TOTAL AREA REPORTED is the total physical area of the villages/deh.64 22.80 4.74 6.10 22.61 58.88 7.48 24.01 24.61 9.08 4.13 5.21 7.82 4.85 6.37 9.29 16.73 15.48 21.95 2002-03 79.67 22.45 24.86 1992-93 79.60 24.73 5.27 7.61 59.28 3.27 22.48 16.80 Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture 1 2 3 4 5 6 1990-91 79.86 5. tehsils or districts etc.48 16.77 24.61 58.35 16.03 22.49 21.83 1993-94 79.39 22.40 5.61 57.28 22.91 1995-96 79.48 4.61 15.pk) .87 8.93 16.45 22.60 22.44 8.52 9.2 LAND UTILIZATION Fiscal Year Total Area Reported Forest Area Area Not Available for Culturable Cultivation Waste (Million hectares) Cultivated Area Total Current Net Area Total Area Area Sown Cropped Fallow Sown Cultivated more than Area (7+8) once (8+10) 7 8 9 10 11 4.87 16.21 2006-07 79.34 21.61 59.25 8.29 21.18 7.10 2004-05 79.61 59.19 16.13 6.85 16.13 21.23 3.87 1996-97 79.94 6.32 3.47 24.04 5.05 22.12 7.46 4.68 6.12 6. Any cultivated area which may exist within such forest is shown under heading "cultivated area". CULTURABLE WASTE is that uncultivated farm area which is fit for cultivation but was not cropped during the year under reference nor in the year before that.19 21.58 21. TOTAL CROPPED AREA means the aggregate area of crops raised in a farm during the year under reference including the area under fruit trees.61 59.34 8.04 24.23 9.72 15.56 23.51 22.95 2003-04 79.18 22.06 3.51 3.74 1994-95 79.46 24.85 1991-92 79.70 8.60 15.78 6.65 7.45 8.96 6.93 6.48 8.61 59.94 2005-06 79.17 2001-02 79.53 21. FOREST AREA is the area of any land administered as forest under any legal enactment dealing with forests.21 23.55 6.61 58.25 21.45 8.61 59.06 5. AREA SOWN MORE THAN ONCE is the difference between the total cropped area and the net area sown.85 4.59 5.21 23.61 59.33 3.86 15.accountancy.72 4.05 4.02 24.41 8.20 2009-10 P 79.89 22.14 5.43 8.61 57.31 8.40 23.99 22.27 6.45 22. Cultivated Area = Net Area sown + Current Fallow.61 59.61 57.61 57.65 21.50 21.51 23.28 21.74 23.11 20.61 24.28 21.13 3.61 9.35 8.06 1997-98 79.42 16.61 57.96 5.61 58.01 22.08 4. AREA NOT AVAILABLE FOR CULTIVATION is that uncultivated area of the farm which is under farm home steads. farm roads and other connected purposes and not available for cultivation.22 21.87 3.51 5.21 6.72 16.44 5.45 21.93 16.08 4.45 4.13 7.23 22. CURRENT FALLOW (ploughed but uncropped) is that area which is vacant during the year under reference but was sown at least once during the previous year CULTIVATED AREA is that area which was sown at least during the year under reference or during the previous year.93 16.com.22 4.78 24.23 1999-00 79.58 24.21 23.30 2007-08 79.96 6.71 21.98 6. NET AREA SOWN is that area which is sown at least once during (Kharif & Rabi) the year under reference.TABLE 2.23 15.16 21.95 16.15 1998-99 79.04 6. 820 50 1.100 256 88 2.515 2000-01 8.034 2.113 12.230 2.927 46 934 1.657 12.097 1992-93 8.461 2004-05 8.119 963 320 90 2.297 12.473 12.997 46 1.114 2002-03 8.667 12.008 885 285 82 2.050 943 185 80 3.3 AREA UNDER IMPORTANT CROPS Fiscal Year Wheat Rice 1990-91 7.618 12.377 2001-02 8.241 224 76 3.029 907 217 82 3.075 51 1.029 256 71 3.029 233 91 2.355 2.599 12.989 12.100 965 354 100 3.251 1997-98 8.149 49 1.550 2.193 50 1.020 13.113 1991-92 7.094 966 243 66 3.066 13.052 950 Barley 157 149 160 151 165 171 152 163 137 124 113 111 108 102 93 90 94 91 86 80 Total Food Grains 11.000 11.125 1995-96 8.181 2.934 11.973 1993-94 8.923 57 972 1.878 2.accountancy.170 2.960 53 1.216 2.603 12.058 2.794 47 982 1.092 884 304 53 2.045 963 269 73 2.47 acres P : Provisional (Jul-Mar) Bajra 491 313 487 303 509 407 303 460 463 313 390 417 349 539 343 441 504 531 470 476 Jowar 417 383 403 365 438 418 370 390 383 357 354 358 338 392 308 254 292 281 263 248 Maize 845 848 868 879 890 939 928 933 962 962 944 942 935 947 982 1.805 57 1.621 2006-07 8.106 49 Source: 1.983 56 905 961 273 101 2.836 58 1.077 1.056 340 96 2.300 1.187 1994-95 8.359 12.107 1.TABLE 2.836 54 1.074 259 60 2.009 301 80 2.581 2007-08 8.com.520 2005-06 8.448 2.046 2.734 12.963 2009-10 P 9.081 1.042 2.116 49 963 1.010 321 72 2.054 51 1.155 327 71 2.662 44 997 896 287 70 2.376 2.880 13.pk) .653 47 1. Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.463 2.052 1.358 2.109 2.103 56 1.424 1999-00 8.052 1.065 1.034 2.102 1.017 1.000 269 136 3.162 1996-97 8.042 1.317 1998-99 8.919 12.883 Note : 1 ha = 2.911 2.515 2008-09 9.191 11.679 (000 hectares) Rapeseed Sugarand SesaGram cane Mustard mum Cotton Tobacco 1.896 13. Ministry of Food and Agriculture 2.578 2.989 46 1.225 2003-04 8. 920 50.897 98 26.495 8.848 2004-05 21.651 4.998 53.305 1997-98 18.479 8.033 6.694 4.709 10.634 203 238 1.198 296 165 3.025 2005-06 21.337 305 170 3.056 138 212 1.883 P : Provisional (Jul-Mar) Total Food Bajra Jowar Maize Barley Grains 196 239 1.666 54.504 174 22.160 12.491 150 22.0 2.612 5.966 1996-97 16.2 1.995 1994-95 17.438 2007-08 20.982 11.010 11.184 158 21.121 293 154 3.593 82 35.0 1.6 1.accountancy.968 146 219 1.295 5.7 1.0 2.374 92 292 42.0 1.215 13.213 3.318 164 22.517 174 25.759 Gram 531 513 347 411 559 680 594 767 698 565 397 362 675 611 868 480 838 475 741 571 Sugarcane 35.333 43.8 1.059 44.181 12.912 11.002 3.213 146 20.664 100 24.742 63.088 93 32.637 9.805 10.588 139 225 1.230 41.419 47.277 5.311 189 203 1.0 2.447 1995-96 16.962 211 231 1.TABLE 2.732 85 221 69.185 142 19.737 100 25.243 1992-93 16.240 108 230 50.380 199 218 1.104 55.187 12.819 105 202 33.203 140 20.5 1.856 103 176 32.157 3.565 3.773 156 220 1.045 49.959 5.7 2.606 48.422 162 255 1.184 99 279 32.540 9.042 52.041 100 229 36.500 4.3 1.1 1.826 10.024 4.594 9.803 2001-02 18.368 8.628 75 220 28.168 45.952 2009-10 P 23.056 53.191 46.907 3.261 1991-92 15.905 221 153 3.643 99 25.079 5.396 238 180 3.697 81 255 39.889 274 238 1.244 44.547 2006-07 23.698 104 Source: 1.665 137 24.019 113 212 30.595 80 286 44.917 228 263 1.110 88 30.865 38.211 88 221 25.0 2.pk) .790 109 297 35. Ministry of Food and Agriculture 2.9 1.674 1999-00 21.737 10.882 2002-03 19.797 92 29.652 118 28.3 1.4 PRODUCTION OF IMPORTANT CROPS Fiscal Year Wheat Rice 1990-91 14.265 101 172 35.4 1.858 4.655 108 188 41.4 2.802 10.427 47.822 97 207 34.160 213 228 1.054 102 197 32.226 3. Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.478 2003-04 19.562 9.487 78 34.989 38.373 (000 tonnes) Rapeseed and SesaCotton TobMustard mum (000 tonnes) (000 Bales) acco 228 21.333 1998-99 17.183 4.048 86 203 30.156 2000-01 19.864 6.116 1993-94 15.426 14.613 94 215 19.987 216 222 1.563 2008-09 24.com.4 1.605 87 31.5 1.684 3.855 193 186 2. 419 1.491 2.324 49.003 2.5 YIELD PER HECTARE OF MAJOR AGRICULTURAL CROPS (Kg/Hectare) Fiscal Year Wheat Rice Sugarcane Maize 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 P P : Provisional 1.995 2.657 2.246 53.990 1.com.371 43.607 1.accountancy.635 52.836 2.874 45. published by Accountancy (www.415 3.018 2.741 1.036 3.766 1.546 1.144 46.pk) .858 2.116 2.720 43.602 1.670 Gram Cotton 486 615 514 769 344 543 393 488 524 557 607 601 540 506 696 528 648 511 581 641 439 624 388 579 701 622 622 572 793 760 467 714 797 711 429 649 685 713 543 695 Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture Federal Bureau of Statistics.507 48.TABLE 2.906 49.262 2.346 2.021 1.970 1.199 51.579 1.375 2.870 1.519 2.238 2.364 1.212 2.968 43.568 2.848 2.731 1.946 1.626 1.170 2.717 1.784 45.013 1.380 1.107 2.376 48.841 1.928 2.835 1.912 1.427 3.053 2.826 1.288 47.388 2.451 2.738 48.357 1.985 3.543 1.716 2.387 40.401 1.050 2.325 2.747 46.521 50.622 1.639 1.481 1.024 46.042 47.893 2.081 2. 130 51 526 260 4.933 1995-96 1.665 1993-94 1.003 1997-98 2.776 74 455 202 2.830 2002-03 1.554 Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture Federal Bureau of Statistics Grapes Guava published by Accountancy (www.847 Production of Important Fruit (000 tonnes) Apple Banana Apricot Almonds 243 295 339 442 533 554 569 573 589 377 439 367 315 334 352 351 348 442 441 426 202 44 52 53 80 82 83 94 95 125 139 150 143 154 158 164 150 156 157 155 81 109 122 153 178 191 188 189 191 121 126 125 130 211 205 197 177 240 238 235 32 38 40 45 49 49 49 49 50 32 33 26 24 24 23 23 23 27 27 26 Export (000 Value tonnes) (Mln.408 49 552 455 7.256 72 442 135 1.862 1999-00 1.586 53 539 290 5.085 76 512 466 12.056 1.324 43 420 139 1. Rs) 33 355 112 935 36 373 125 966 38 384 121 1.719 1.728 1.894 75 539 411 9.773 40 494 240 4.609 1991-92 1.671 1.944 2005-06 2.508 47 555 343 6.960 1996-97 2.472 2007-08 2.pk) .6 PRODUCTION AND EXPORT OF FRUIT Fiscal Citrus Year 1990-91 1.458 2006-07 1.702 2003-04 1.203 P : Provisional (Jul-Mar) Mango 776 787 794 839 884 908 915 917 916 938 990 1.com.035 1.037 1.943 2000-01 1.861 51 550 354 5.314 77 516 533 16.179 40 402 127 1.754 1.754 1.487 74 448 219 2.898 2001-02 1.630 1992-93 1.accountancy.760 2004-05 1.097 52 532 263 4.294 2008-09 2.132 2009-10 P 2.849 1994-95 1.TABLE 2.037 1998-99 1.793 76 468 181 2.912 49 572 281 5. 89 11.36 0.82 3.58 15.70 2.46 100.16 0.85 0.06 2.69 65.26 1.75 0.65 22.75 1.48 14.54 (%age share) 2008-09 2009-10 R P 100.45 0.41 0.43 0.06 13.42 0.98 22.43 0.82 10.00 63.82 10.50 23.17 0.59 0.com.55 37.84 100.26 15.24 4.20 0.20 9.58 0.20 9.00 100.41 0.29 0.13 0.14 3.67 0.47 0.46 3.20 13.30 39.47 0.05 0.63 12.43 39.81 0.37 5.18 0.TABLE 2.29 0.55 100.78 16.48 100.27 11.39 15.85 23.28 0.75 9.pk) .95 0.27 1.63 1.96 11.20 24.27 1.66 39.12 23.70 0.00 62.85 23.10 2.20 13.52 0.41 0.15 25.95 1.45 0.50 0.94 0.23 17.58 0.12 40.00 62.00 61.65 22.89 24.95 1.24 0.15 0.51 2.42 5.47 100.00 100.58 9.00 60.21 1.34 0.51 0.00 63.00 100.15 0.46 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics 2006-07 2007-08 published by Accountancy (www.32 3.53 0.66 0.26 25.21 25.24 66.77 0.31 4.98 16.85 62.44 3.95 9.81 0.15 0.39 3.19 22.28 0.65 0.61 15.33 0.14 0.11 0.67 21.58 0.54 0.21 9.52 0.67 21.52 38.95 12.31 0.00 63.62 0.34 39.46 0.08 4.46 3.26 12.00 13.06 22.29 1.21 0.73 0.62 0.98 12.57 0.27 4.63 17.58 25.21 27.50 11.27 37.10 3.7 CROP WISE COMPOSITION OF VALUE OF MAJOR AGRICULTURAL CROPS (AT CONSTANT FACTOR COST 1999-2000) Fiscal Year/ Crops All Major Crops Food Crops Wheat Rice Bajra Jowar Maize Gram Barley Fibre Crops Cotton Cash Crops Sugarcane Other Crops Sesamum Rape Seed & mustard Tobacco R : Revised P : Provisional 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 100.32 40.26 0.96 1.12 0.13 3.37 38.15 27.accountancy.19 22.16 0.00 1.20 17. . .TABLE 2. : not Available P : Provisional (Jul-Mar) Source : i) State Bank of Pakistan b : Punjab Provincial Corporative Bank Ltd.518 14.915 1991-92 6.424 .335 .610 .666 233.757 4.440 7.354 .446 2004-05 37.017 3.010 2009-10 P 48.421 5.313 39.548 1997-98 22.324 56 ..988 80.929 6..933 .621 4. 5.687 . 16.409 . formerly Agriculture Development Bank of Pakistan published by Accountancy (www..176 . 28..187 1996-97 11.641 3.373 1995-96 10.339 . .124 12.561 2008-09 75.967 137..8 CREDIT DISBURSED BY AGENCIES (Rs million) Fiscal ZTBL Taccavi Domestic PPCBL Commercial Total Year a Private Banks b Banks 1990-91 8..023 5..749 211. ..139 ..996 57 . 593 5.110 33.310 108.976 7.270 .607 51.852 1999-00 24.. 12.407 7.045 19.530 85..236 42.198 1993-94 8.830 2007-08 66.392 1998-99 30. 2. Agriculture & Livestock a : Zarai Taraqiate Bank Limited. 5..951 9.989 .576 .041 22..674 1994-95 14..... . 2.247 73.429 19... 3. 3. 43. 3.108 .pk) . 4.594 .643 51 ...931 94.accountancy.056 44. ii) Ministry of Food.702 7.177 166.987 .247 4.486 52.com. 41.180 14.889 67.. 1.579 110. 5.939 . 23. .978 4.803 5.688 2000-01 27.733 2005-06 47.473 .. ..626 5.479 1992-93 8.526 16.485 22.790 2001-02 29.739 58.128 17.941 5. .063 15.474 2006-07 56.915 2003-04 29.. 2...564 33. . 3.431 4. 3..314 2002-03 29.393 168. 515 663 26.659 1994-95 1.515 2.097 1999-00 2.218 2000-01 2.893 5.561 8.320 766 22.268 33.330 568 28.650 2007-08 2.672 3.479 5.978 581 30.995 8.731 903 12.147 2.527 2004-05 2.285 2002-03 2.893 1.804 3.814 6.272 714 29. Federal Bureau of Statistics.929 3.694 3. 2.030 1. published by Accountancy (www.738 1995-96 1.pk) .583 2.075 1998-99 2.242 3.985 1997-98 2.406 7.124 4.925 2008-09 3.477 626 31.157 785 41. National Fertilizer Development Centre.635 1993-94 1.020 3.081 878 30.783 5.413 2.463 1992-93 1.618 P : Provisional.264 2001-02 2. (Jul-Mar) Fertilizer off-take (000 N/Tonnes) P K 389 398 488 464 428 494 420 551 465 597 677 625 650 673 865 851 979 630 651 791 33 23 24 23 17 30 8 20 21 19 23 19 20 22 33 27 43 27 25 17 Total 1.581 3.258 1.225 4.035 2009-10 P 2.349 2003-04 2.TABLE 2.255 3.711 3.692 580 21.946 759 14.927 2006-07 2.839 8.848 876 27.856 5.489 632 15.089 5.966 2.100 1.804 796 29.183 2.741 Source: 1.834 2.com.281 1.435 1.222 3.796 2005-06 2.9 FERTILIZER OFFTAKE AND IMPORTS OF FERTILIZERS & PESTICIDES Fiscal N Year 1990-91 1.954 6.776 2.148 2.441 764 41.884 2.426 Import of Insecticides Import of fertilizers Quantity Value 000 N/T (Tonnes) (Mln Rs) 685 13.981 968 27.accountancy.706 261 21.991 1996-97 1.646 2.472 1991-92 1.801 885 31. 0 2.0 344.0 327..0 . 373.0 913..0 543.6 231.079.0 779.0 553.0 464.0 704.0 150.0 96.0 384.0 985.267.0 286.330..0 519. 720. 329.0 670.0 249..0 341.0 744.934.0 765. 150.0 .091.0 698.0 197.0 1.0 471.0 172..0 373.0 468...0 468.0 93.0 867.0 751. 572.0 233.0 172.0 353.0 300.0 780.0 247.0 539..0 710.0 411.0 1.0 308.6 250.0 564.pk) .0 209.0 2.578.0 95.0 394.0 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 P ..0 665.0 210.5 275.0 195.0 93.0 195.1 235.0 710.0 527.0 .0 765.0 809.297.0 346..0 NP (23:23) 173. 200. 280.001.0 231.0 205. 334..0 479.0 232.0 223.0 670.0 .0 195.10 AVERAGE RETAIL SALE PRICE OF FERTILIZERS Fiscal Year Urea (46% N) 195.0 420.0 396.0 . : Not available P : Provisional (Jul-Mar) AN/CAN : Ammonium nitrate/calcium ammonium nitrate ASN : Ammonium super nitrate AS : Ammonium sulphate NP : Nitrophosphate AS (21% N) 85.0 282. 234..0 395.0 320..0 581.0 268. Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics National Fertilizer Dev.0 682.0 .0 363.0 2.accountancy..700.0 .497.0 247.0 340.0 649..0 208.6 540.0 AN/CAN (26% N) 90.0 173.0 150.144.0 . 298.0 1. 874.0 .0 532.0 509.358.0 247.0 176. 211.com.0 993.0 .0 176.0 1.0 782..0 195.0 . 407..0 .0 .0 2.0 272.0 .0 405.0 1.6 457.0 1.0 704. Centre SSP: single super phosphate DAP: Diammonium phosphate SOP: Sulphate of potash NPK: Nitrogen phosphate and potash published by Accountancy (www.0 1.0 95.0 267.0 1.0 183.0 1.0 .0 396.170.0 196.0 331.0 (Rs per bag of 50 Kgs/110lbs) SSP(G) DAP SOP NPK (18%) (18:46) (50% K) (10:20:20) 93.8 269.0 1.289.0 202.0 264.0 .0 996.0 150. 253.0 125.TABLE 2. 287.3 164.0 109.0 379.0 622.0 90.0 541. 20 18.98 3.85 7.18 18.28 19.61 0.58 6.67 7.56 6.49 Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture published by Accountancy (www.91 6.08 0.06 7.00 7.81 7.83 2.16 17.48 3.com.85 6.14 0.73 7.25 0.79 0.79 7.50 0.31 0.78 2.21 19.68 6.18 18.00 6.78 0.11 3.58 3.88 0.89 2.25 19.19 3.17 17.84 7.20 6.20 Tube wells 2.10 0.21 18.33 Canal Wells 0.18 0.09 0.51 7.13 6.13 0.58 0.88 (Million hectares) Canal Tube wells Others Total 5.16 0.24 17.10 0.pk) .20 0.10 0.67 2.18 17.22 0.11 0.22 0.28 0.91 7.11 0.22 0.17 0.22 19.11 0.06 6.67 0.70 0.11 7.56 2.78 0.94 0.60 7.accountancy.86 6.17 0.21 16.09 0.89 3.59 7.21 0.86 Wells 0.78 7.88 3.82 7.37 3.19 0.18 0.33 0.87 0.17 0.18 0.83 3.85 6.15 0.99 0.22 0.20 0.04 7.TABLE 2.95 6.13 0.22 7.09 0.21 19.90 3.45 3.17 17.22 17.46 3.81 7.33 6.16 0.22 7.17 0.23 0.24 0.74 0.89 7.22 16.98 6.18 18.00 2.18 0.94 0.93 0.49 7.21 0.29 7.16 0.22 17.75 5.12 7.20 0.16 0.11 AREA IRRIGATED BY DIFFERENT SOURCES Fiscal Year 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 P P : Provisional Canals 7.41 0.59 2.24 18. 00 175.. 2009-10 P 950 .00 42.50 21.00 100..00 36.00 255... .00 65.00 35.00 400.75 17.00 1996-97 240 210.00 300.00 210..00 43.00 85..pk) .75 24.00 Sugarcane Punjab Sindh 15. 2008-09 950 .00 185.00 43. 1250.00 35.50 18.. .00 360.00 419.00 17.00 389.... .00 1994-95 160 170. .00 35.Q) 1990-91 112 127..00 103.00 65..00 42.00 35.00 43.00 175.00 1991-92 124 140. 2002-03 300 .50 24.50 24. 1999-00 300 .00 60.accountancy. ...00 460.TABLE 2.75 21.00 35.00 1992-93 130 150.00 Irri-6 (F. 1998-99 240 .00 36..00 230. .25 20..A..00 385.00 20.00 45.12(A) PROCUREMENT/SUPPORT PRICES OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES (Rs per 40 kg) Fiscal Year Rice Wheat Basmati 385 283.00 205..30 128.00 20..25 16.A. . 2001-02 300 .com.45 1997-98 240 . Paddy Basmati Irri-6 385 (F.. . Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 15. 2003-04 350 .00 60.00 63. ..00 155.00 42. 2004-05 400 .00 205.50 36.00* 80.00 415.50 36..00 43.00 ...75 21.00 @ 700.00 36. .00 600.00 1000. 17.00 35. 2005-06 415 .00 330.00 100. 2006-07 425 . . . ...00 .00 385.00 153.00 42.50 18.78 .00 43.00 43. (Contd.00 .00 1995-96 173 183. 1500/40kg * : Sugarcane prices has been fixed by the respective Provincial Government.. : Not applicable @ : Price of Basmati Super (Paddy) Rs. .50 18.75 18.00 42...00 35. 2007-08 625 .00 308.00 42.00* 80. FAQ : Fair Average Quality .00 67.80 310..00 350. . .25 16.00 1993-94 160 157.Q) 143.60 222.00 36.00 Baluchistan .00 215.75 17. .50 21.00 15.00 90.00 43.25 20....00 112..90 102.75 17.00 205.) published by Accountancy (www.00 340.50 73.00 43.00 35.00 48.75 24.00 78.00 17... 2000-01 300 .00 36.00 42.00* 42.00 81.80 461.00 385.00 36.00 60. 306.00 185. TABLE 2... 2001-02 .. ... .. Seed Cotton (Phutti) * * * * Sarmast Sarmast QallanQallandri DeltaB-557 dri Deltapine MSAC-134.. 2004-05 .... . . ...... ... 145 . . . . . . . 975 . 800 .. . . .. 315 * 325 77 78 1055 340 .... .. .. .. . . .. 850 . 825 * .. ...... .. ... 2005-06 .. 145 .. .. ... . . ... . 145 140 .. .. ... 1998-99 .12(B) PROCUREMENT/SUPPORT PRICES OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES (Rs per 40 Kg) Cotton Lint Fiscal Year Desi 1990-91 550 1991-92 662 1992-93 695 1993-94 726 1994-95 795 1995-96 795 1996-97 .. 400 * 423 84 85 .. . .. : Not applicable * : Niab-78. .. NT 615 685 . 2006-07 .. .... . ... 2003-04 .... 2000-01 . . .. . ... Agriculture Policy Institute (API) published by Accountancy (www.....com. . ... .. 440 ... 440 . . .. . .. 400 * 423 84 78 1055 340 .... . 2008-09 . 780 .... . . ... .... .pk) . . 1997-98 . . 2002-03 . . ... ...accountancy... ..... .. . 500 * 620 145 112 . . 1999-00 ..... .. 725 * . 725 * ...... 500 * 540 115 100 . 2009-10 P .. . ... . . . . B-557 149-F 645 715 770 801 986 986 . . . . 2007-08 .... .. .. . F-149 pine MS39-40 Desi NT Niab-78 39-40 Potato Onion 690 220 235 245 260 55 52 745 255 270 280 290 65 60 800 275 . ... .. Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture... . CIM AC-134.. . P : Provisional . . ... . 1465 .. 300 * 310 67 65 831 290 .. 1025 .. . . 925 .. . .431.725. .249. .... .131.070.999.0 4....13 PROCUREMENT. .9 4. ..788..794..223.456.0 1994-95 3....0 2006-07 4.. .8 541. .0 2005-06 4..0 2002-03 3..0 5.5 144.0 5.0 2.0 2000-01 4..1 136. . ...com.0 1.4 848.4 224. . .8 719. .... Source: Ministry of Food and Agriculture published by Accountancy (www.0 992.0 5...0 1999-00 8...120.0 981.0 505.0 285.0 5.0 3..139. .0 5. .0 * 142. .0 161. . . ...5 154.5 681.2 .0 1993-94 3..0 6.0 2001-02 4.8 314.740.. .1 @ 5.7 454.0 456.0 50.939. ..7 .. . RELEASES AND STOCKS OF WHEAT AND RICE Wheat (May-April) Releases Fiscal ProcureYear ment 1990-91 3.514.644.088.357.0 3..0 702.0 1998-99 4..448..7 .3 486. 2010 @ : upto 10th May 2010 (2009-10 Crop) Rice Procured Basmati Others Stocks 1.0 385.0 3. 159.4 2009-10 P 4.987.3 117. .0 1992-93 4. . .107.9 284.6 494.608.0 1997-98 3.422. . .0 5... . . .0 5.917.0 1991-92 3.0 902..582.982. . (000 tonnes) Stocks Balance (on 1st July) Basmati Others 673.159.0 5.9 .500.165...514.000. .. . .0 5.5 370. . . : not available P : Provisional * : as on 1st May.0 5.9 2008-09 9.. . . . .508.007.081.TABLE 2.. 236...0 5.784.0 350.7 121.683. .0 499.0 1.0 776.. .0 4.0 6.0 2004-05 3.3 117.....accountancy. . . . .984.pk) .984. .537. .0 2003-04 3.4 2007-08 3.0 6.2 540..104. .0 2.231.8 .0 1995-96 3.6 500.4 187.130..9 821.0 5.0 1996-97 2.552.376.143....985. . .045. 9 0.8 17.8 3.1 3.1 352.8 146.0 0.3 18.7 20.9 26.0 22.2 0.4 0. * : Population figures are actual figures of Livestock Census 2006 @ : From 2006-07 onward figures estimates are based on Inter census growth rate of livestock census 1996 & 2006 published by Accountancy (www.5 26.1 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.8 33.0 276.9 30.1 0.8 0.7 17.1 0.7 56.8 24.0 34.3 0.7 31.8 4.6 44.8 41.8 350.9 0.3 20.2 1.2 56.0 318.7 23.6 250.3 59.9 24.1 1.1 3.7 17.3 37.3 24.3 0.8 0.0 610.6 22.4 330.8 23.8 55.5 0.2 29.4 24.pk) .accountancy.3 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.3 29.0 278.0 282.4 22.4 0.7 19.8 17.7 28.2 1.7 4.4 0.1 0.2 24.7 40.4 49.8 17.8 3.2 42.3 0.1 24.2 45.3 0.3 0.1 4.2 1.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 30.2 Source: Ministry of Livestock & Dairy Development.4 0.9 4.8 47.3 0.4 0.9 4.3 0.8 0.0 Camels Asses Horses Mules 1.0 22.7 53.3 23.1 50.0 24.0 518.6 0.4 20.9 52.7 23.2 21.2 0.8 21.8 20.2 182.7 4.8 21.4 27.0 4.3 27.0 4.1 23.0 38.0 29.TABLE 2.8 3.com.8 3.1 27.8 477.7 58.4 22.14 LIVESTOCK POPULATION (million numbers) Fiscal Year Buffaloes Cattle Goats Sheep Poultry 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 * 2006-07 @ 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 17.8 3.3 0.7 24.3 0.2 29.5 0.2 0.2 19.3 0.8 0.4 27.5 26.6 24.4 0.8 3.1 0.9 26.4 0.1 3.3 0.0 433.6 0.9 156.8 54.5 23.0 43.0 4.0 562.1 0.3 0.0 346.1 3.3 27.8 18.1 0.6 372.3 28.8 23.8 25.8 3.2 0.8 27.0 382.2 42.0 292. 3 51.5 42.) 101.3 17.3 309.9 8.0 7.0 7860 8.7 38.4 8261 7.1 32.4 39.0 22.2 8529 8.2 126.4 713.7 5927 6.5 38.2 8102 8.6 32.3 209.8 6015 7.2 129.6 5737 7.4 Source: Ministry of Livestock & Dairy Development.9 39.0 5757 7.6 16.3 221.3 8.Nos.7 39.5 51.com. * : Population figures are actual figures of Livestock Census 2006 # : Human Consumption @ : From 2006-07 onward figures estimates are based on Inter census growth rate of livestock census 1996 & 2006 published by Accountancy (www.3 19.2 16.5 652.4 11258 12.7 112.2 33.3 110.7 53.3 35.3 132.0 331.5 41.0 271.1 5164 6.0 9.6 55.5 115.5 4914 6.3 117.8 44.3 5740 6.2 37.3 20.1 38.5 42.3 228.Nos.8 113.7 20.7 20.0 295.TABLE 2.6 40.6 356.2 123.3 38.8 40.1 56.8 11839 13.2 52.3 39.2 45.2 316.9 107.5 42.1 36.4 43.2 39.3 45.8 21.7 44.0 277.7 104.4 347.7 302.0 32.5 36.0 33.4 136.1 34.6 259.4 42.3 120.6 37.0 283.0 50.4 9712 11.9 18.1 38.4 42.6 19.4 Fat Blood Eggs (000 tonnes) Hides Skins (Mln.9 40.1 4490 5.9 45.Nos.1 10711 12.6 46.8 38.accountancy.4 22.) (Mln.0 47.3 50.3 54.8 7505 7.1 633.2 45.2 40.0 41.9 7321 7.6 41.4 339.9 39.8 34.4 15.7 10197 11.0 265.2 692.3 324.1 40.5 672.1 9.9 20.2 365.9 32.pk) .0 47.15 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS Fiscal Year 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 * 2006-07 @ 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Milk # Beef 15481 16280 17120 18006 18986 22970 23580 24215 24876 25566 26284 27031 27811 28624 29438 31970 32996 34064 35160 36299 765 803 844 887 931 898 919 940 963 986 1010 1034 1060 1087 1115 1449 1498 1549 1601 1655 Mutton Poultry Meat 665 151 713 169 763 265 817 296 875 308 587 355 602 387 617 284 633 310 649 322 666 339 683 355 702 370 720 378 739 384 554 512 566 554 578 601 590 652 603 707 Wool Hair Bones 48.0 40.0 110.6 203.) (Mln.3 215.7 17.9 7679 7.1 49. 2).3 Manufacturing Manufacturing is the third largest sector of the economy. accounting for 18. Table 3. and accounts for 1.0 2010 18. which appears to be a secular (i.5 13. the share of Manufacturing in new fixed investment has declined sharply. A large part of the problem with regards to the loss of dynamism in this once‐vibrant sector relates to the incentives framework in place. This contrasts with the experience of most better‐ performing countries in the region. Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM). which accounts for 4.2: Manufacturing sector in regional countries As % of GDP Thailand China Malaysia Indonesia Vietnam Cambodia Pakistan Bangladesh India 1995 30 34 26 24 15 10 16 15 18 2007 35 32 28 27 21 19 19 18 16 Source: World Bank As a consequence. needs to be examined carefully and its underlying factors addressed. This worrying development.1).5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Table 3. while Manufacturing’s share of overall GDP has increased since 2000.7 11. Vietnam and Cambodia. and 13 percent of total employment (see Table 3.e. its share in the economy has declined since 2005 in terms of all three indicators used: share of GDP. The third component of the sector is Slaughtering. which has been explored in the chapter on Growth and Investment. despite the presence of other fast‐growing dynamic sectors in the economy (Table 3.0 2005 18.0 16. long term) trend.9 percent of total GDP.2 percent of GDP. dominates the overall sector.1: Share of Manufacturing Manufacturing as % of: GDP Employment Fixed Investment 2000 14. employment.4 percent of overall GDP. followed by Small Scale Manufacturing. from 22% to 16. where the manufacturing sector has expanded fairly rapidly. and new fixed investment.6 22.2 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics What is evident from Table 3. Sri Lanka.1 is that. Pervasive mis‐declaration and under‐invoicing of imports. the absorption of employment in Manufacturing has also remained fairly stable at around 13% during this period.pk) . which according to some estimates costs the 39 published by Accountancy (www. More worrying for the future prospects of the sector. such as Bangladesh. which was separately included as a sub‐category from 2003‐04. at 12.2%.accountancy.com. accounting for 66% of the sectoral share.3 13.5 23. in conjunction with the rampant misuse of the Afghan Transit Trade (ATT) facility. Not surprisingly. Recent performance Set in this difficult medium term context.011 million in 2006. as well as making lower payments in gaining utility connections through “informal” channels. and on‐off political uncertainty since 2007 have combined with a period of necessary adjustment in the economy since 2008 which has seen a sharp increase in administered prices. which undercut the domestic manufacturing sector. informal player in the economy are not captured.7 percent in the same period of last year (Table 3. Production in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) rose by 4.1: Monthly Growth Rate of LSM 15 Growth Rate 10 5 0 ‐5 ‐10 ‐15 ‐20 ‐25 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics 40 published by Accountancy (www. especially between 2004 and 2007. As has already been discussed in the chapter on Growth and Investment. This led to a rapid increase in cheap imports. These include savings accruing via the elimination of the regulatory “burden” (audits. to US$ 3.030 million in 2008. including finished goods. in particular.accountancy. scale. the Manufacturing sector has performed well in the outgoing year. Other cost advantages to being a relatively smaller. has undermined the viability and competitiveness of the Manufacturing sector. Fig‐3. have set perverse incentives for formality and hence. with overall value addition rising 5. especially in the low value added segment. inspections. Recent developments on this front. Some of the other areas where the domestic manufacturing sector has been seriously disadvantaged in comparison to imports include reliance on an overvalued exchange rate as an instrument of policy. and compared to a contraction of 7.8%.pk) .2). A deteriorating internal security situation.4 percent during July to March. Pakistan’s formal imports from China shot up from US$ 2.3 and Fig 3. especially for energy. An unstable and uncertain domestic environment has proved to be an added factor in burdening the manufacturing sector. registration costs etc). The loss of scale induced by the taxation and regulatory system has seriously eroded the competitiveness of the Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) sector.Economic Survey 2009‐10 economy anywhere between Rs 100 billion to Rs 300 billion in lost revenue alone. filings. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China since 2007 is unlikely to have helped the domestic manufacturing sector.2% in the first nine months of the fiscal year. against the full year target of 1. does not bode well for reducing leakages on account of weak administration of Customs. weaknesses in the taxation system.com. crippling energy shortages. given China’s global dominance of manufactured products. with the winding up of the Pakistan Automated Customs Clearance System (PACCs) by FBR. especially in terms of policy design. 2%). all contributed to the slowdown in manufacturing. and if external demand for exports remains strong in the months ahead. and fertilizer also contributed to overall LSM growth. there is a trend of improvement in this sector. Pharmaceuticals. with production growth of high double digits in autos and allied products. followed by Electronics group (0.5%) and chemicals (‐0. and the impact on external demand for Pakistan’s exports caused by one of the deepest contractions in global output and trade in the past 70 years. Among the major factors behind the negative growth rate in iron and steel products were. The production of electronic items increased by 23%. deep freezers (36%) and refrigerators (17 %).2 10 8.4 4. with industries producing consumer and intermediate goods being the main beneficiaries. the overall LSM sector may benefit further. Pharmaceuticals.2% for the whole of 2008‐09.2 ‐5 ‐10 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 Source : FBS 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) 41 published by Accountancy (www.Manufacturing Output growth in LSM contracted 8. However. and in electronic goods. leather goods.com.1 Group‐wise performance of Large Scale Manufacturing More than half of the sub‐groups within Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) depicted improvement from the previous year.accountancy. a major increase was seen in the production of motorcycles (58. followed by sugar (‐3. This group includes steel products (‐26.6 %.1 5 0 ‐8.2: LSM growth rate (Annual basis) 20 18.2%). tractors (27%). Leather Products. Production of automobiles increased by 31. The turnaround has been led by the consumer discretionary sector.8 4. jeeps & cars (37%). wheat threshers and production of diesel engines.3 percentage points by the Automobile group to the overall increase in manufacturing sector. buses and trucks (16.3 percent point. Non‐Metallic Minerals Products. output growth in the LSM sector finally turned positive from August 2009 onwards. the Fig‐3. Major items showing increase in output under this head included air conditioners (59%).pk) .2%).5%).8% for July to March. paper & paper board (‐2.9%). textiles (‐0.4 percent point and petroleum group ‐0.9%). petroleum products (‐5. Engineering products witnessed an increase in output of 6%. However. a large depreciation in the value of the Rupee against the US dollar which increased raw material costs.9%). The main contributors to LSM growth were: Automobiles.5 percentage point). Electronics. after recording thirteen months of contraction on a year‐on‐year basis. A combination of a deteriorating law and order situation. The highest negative trend in term of point contribution has been seen in food group ‐0. Despite stronger export order books for some segments of the textile industry from around November last year. and Leather products group (0.5 percent point. However. a few important groups of large scale manufacturing have depicted a negative growth rate for July to March.6 percent). textile group ‐0. followed by Tyres & Tubes. and Engineering Products. especially for cotton yarn. Major items showing increase in production include sugarcane machines. massive power shortages. Fertilizers. 3. Within the group. reported output growth for Textiles as a whole remained marginally negative at ‐1.8 15 9. Categorization of Groups in manufacturing sector by point contribution indicates highest increase of 1. The increase of 29.5% in rubber products was due to increase in production of motor tyres and tubes at 23 % and 50% respectively. 00 0.39 0.18 ‐0.383 21.19 11.8 ‐2. which led to lower production of sugar.17 1.86 0.15 0.347 1.m.419 707.28 0.51 3 Petroleum Group 5.8 10.884 3.37 8 Chemicals 2.399 93.09 All Groups 75.77 0.577 1595 1869.) (000 tones) (Milion Liters) (000 N tonnes) (Milion Nos) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) (000 N tonnes) Weight 2008‐09 0. a smaller sugarcane harvest in the country. Beverage and Tobacco group was severely hit by low production of beverages.8 29.232 ‐9.26 9.05 0. As a result.94 0. Strained cashflow constrained the full operation of refineries.09 5.com.46 10.60 0.3 23.9 23.111 1.164 15491.21 0. As a result.17 0.885 322.No.192 4.54 1. PSM has not been able to arrange import of basic raw materials.498 1810.63 0.00 ‐0. Table 3.25 7 Fertilizers 3.5 ‐3.31 4 Pharmaceutical 5.78 ‐0.73 0.7 ‐1.03 13 Tyres & Tubes 0.238 22.90 ‐0.352 ‐10.4: Production of selected items of Large Scale Manufacturing (July‐March) S.01 0.58 10 Leather Products 2.5 10.394 2.15 13. as per its requirement.884 17.88 0.589 605.497 3.178 % Change % Point (Jul‐Mar) Contribution 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) 2009‐10 35.0 31.469 1.955 ‐39.78 0. Table‐3.54 ‐0. The Food.54 ‐1.485 ‐31.46 2.No.10 17.19 3.78 3.534 63. Groups Weights July‐March July‐March 2008‐09 2009‐10 2008‐09 2009‐10 1 Textile & Apparel 26. with a decline in the volume of import of crude oil.51 ‐0.11 ‐0.21 0.pk) . 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 42 Items Deep Freezers Jeep & Cars Refrigerators Upper Leather Cement Liquids/Syrups Phosphatic fertilizer Tablets Cooking oil Cotton (Ginned) Nitrogenous fertilizer Unit (000 tonnes) (Nos.368 1508 1.14 36.3: Group wise growth and point contribution rate of LSM for the month of Jul‐Mar 2009‐10 vs July‐Mar 2008‐09 (% Change) % Point Contribution S.33 0.58 ‐1. Production of cigarettes also declined substantially during the current financial year.8 ‐0.37 5 Non‐Metallic Minerals Products 4.237 2009‐10 126. refined petroleum products were imported to fulfill domestic requirements.575 14169.Economic Survey 2009‐10 impact of the financial crunch in Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM) as a result of huge losses it incurred last year.) (000 tonnes) (000 sq.47 2 Food.48 ‐0.446 0.02 12 Engineering Products 0.117 14.89 0.01 9 Electronic 2.2 ‐5.36 ‐5.8 6.984 0.38 210.030 0.272 2.408 ‐0.46 6 Automobile 3.05 published by Accountancy (www.54 11 Paper & Paper Board 0.600 0.20 0.26 0.93 16.303 ‐1.4.07 0.635 87.9 7.525 52.16 ‐0.01 0.24 7.141 20.763 57.698 4. Beverage & Tobacco 14.319 196.7 4.59 0.27 Source : Federal Bureau of Statistics Item wise review of production of selected items of large scale manufacturing during the current financial year of 2009‐10 (July‐March) over the same period of last year is shown in Table 3.401 367.075 ‐7. iron ores and coal. The production activity of petroleum was negatively effected by the circular debt issue.91 0.accountancy. 628 ‐3.802 479.17 ‐1.15% 2007 2008 240.339 13.194 613. Table 3.907 11.242 798.47 ‐0.319 50.01 8784.087 3.) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) (Milion Liters) (Billion Nos.604 10.830 361.493 ‐2.5: Export of Textile and Clothing (Us $ millions) 1990 2000 2004 World Textile 104.066 2197.888 4.726 1.No.49 ‐0.15 3188.9 ‐0.866 ‐3. Pakistan’s Textile Industry had proved its strength in global market during the last four decades.676 9.469 3. sugar.99 ‐0.14 0.367 309.01 778.125 Pakistan Clothing 1.186 3.34 263.95 0.245 ‐5.722 260.pk) .086 7. The contribution of the following items was significantly negative: pig iron.876 4.663 4.906 11.29 388.367 3.441 329. 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Items Cotton Cloth Vegetable Ghee Cotton Yarn Sugar Tea Blended Petroleum products Cigarettes Coke Pig iron Unit (Million sq.479 7.1 billion in 2008 due to financial and economic melt‐down globally.73% 1.613 640.135 5.354 157. It has proved its strength even in post quota era by not only sustaining its position but.5 percentage point) with fertilizer.88% 2.569 Total 212.625 1.m.23% 2006 220.142 529.014 2.198 345.4: Production of selected items of Large Scale Manufacturing % Change % Point (Jul‐Mar) Contribution 2009‐10 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) 2009‐10 761.11 2159.) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Weight 2008‐09 7.541 World Clothing 108.2 Textile Industry Pakistan is the world’s 4th largest producer and 3rd largest consumer of cotton.026 Total 3.092 1. vegetable ghee.51 ‐10. cement (0.017 456.364 250.36 ‐0.144 3.361 ‐20.13 ‐0.055 55.691 2. The Textile and Clothing Industry has been the main driver of the economy for the last 50 years in terms of foreign currency earnings and jobs creation.806 3.31 49. cotton and leather each contributing 0.81% Source: Ministry of Textile 43 published by Accountancy (www.677 6.110 Pakistan Textile 2.01% 2005 202.657 276.151 % Age of World Trade 1.63 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics (July‐March) S.accountancy.371 7.Manufacturing Table‐3. (000 tonnes) (Milion Kg.893 The major contribution to overall LSM growth for the year has come from the automobile sector (0.2 percentage point to the overall increase in manufacturing.com.483 355.01 ‐0.76 ‐0. cotton yarn.177 11.549 760.295 195.14 48.91% 1. 3. also showing growth during 2005 to 2007. tea and petroleum products during the course of year.23 3077.129 197.888 586. but declined to $11.561 0.532 6. especially if synergy is developed amongst different sub‐sectors and efforts are made to aggressively grow the Ready‐Made Clothing Sector.323 9335.509 7.9 percentage point). there is no alternative industry or service sector that has the potential to benefit the economy with foreign currency earnings and new job creation. cigarettes.376 2. The Garment Sector & especially the Knit Garment Sector need special focus in future policies. The Textile and Clothing Industry will continue to be an important engine for future growth of the economy.668 ‐39. The increased demand of yarn export created problem of yarn availability in the local market. The year 2009 was dismal period. World trade and output are currently in a recovery phase. the strong rebound in yarn and fabric production in almost all the regions came as a real surprise.9 3. The WTO Secretariat estimates that in year 2010 world exports in volume terms will grow by 9. The decline in exports of all manufactured goods including Textile & Clothing is visible in the quarterly data.8 ‐26.3 8.accountancy. driven by a large demand from Europe and China and Brazil.5 ‐10. The power & gas outages have further deteriorated capacity utilization.6 ‐29. Domestic Overview: Internally the increase in cost of utilities. Within the 2009 total. an upswing of global clothing export of approximately 20 percent to almost $25 billion was recorded in June 2009.4%. The shortage of cotton crop in China increased the prices of cotton. This positive trend is supported by global exports of clothing. by 7. and Petrol) has impacted viability. Transport.3 Clothing 10.pk) . developed economies’ exports will expand 7. Pakistan and India) as well as in South America.6: Quarterly growth in world trade in manufactures by product.9 ‐26.5% to 46. imports of made‐up textiles by 8.1 Source: World Trade Organization US imports of textiles and clothing fell for the second year in succession in 2009. The reasons for this strong rebound are higher production in Asia and South America.9 Billion in 2008. following a 5.4 7. Firstly the production of yarn and fabric are constantly on rise in Asia (China. This investment boom until 2007 was due to the phase out of traditional quota regime under WTO – Agreement on Textile and clothing and China’s integration into WTO structures.7 18. there are fundamental aspects that promise a bright future for the textile industry in general. fabric imports fell by 5. The global economic crisis in Oct.5% and the rest of the world (developing economies plus the Commonwealth of Independent States) will advance 11%.5%. The period of heavy investment boom in most Textile Industry segments between 2003 and 2007 came to an abrupt end in 2008.2 ‐10.8 ‐17. After having fallen from more than $30 billion per month to only around $20 billion in May 2009.4 ‐15. apparel continued to account for the highest share of total imports. Despite challenges.5 ‐12.1%.74 per sme.5 Textiles 10. Gas. 2007 had impacted the trade badly.5% and yarn imports by 18. Table 3. Today the big question is whether the recent recovery in Textile Industry will continue? One can be pragmatic to identify the positive moves in Textile Trade.2% drop in 2008—which was the first decline since 2001. (Power.4%. Weaker demand in the developed economies limited the expansion of global trade. to a new low of US$1. The 12% drop in the volume of world trade in 2009 was larger than most economists had predicted.com.6 13.3 11.6 billion square meters equivalent (sme). 44 published by Accountancy (www.4 ‐27.19 Billion and clothing worth $3. Of these four categories. The industry was confronted with problems of multiple natures. The average price of US textile and clothing imports fell for the first time in three years in 2009. The increase of cotton yarn and cotton yarn prices for exporters of Garments.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Global developments: The Textile & Clothing trade has increased. Pakistan exported textiles worth $7. 2008 Q1 ‐ 2009 Q3 (Y‐o‐Y percentage change in current US dollars) 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 Manufactures (All) 15.8 ‐21. While one was expecting stablalization in production and hoping for a slight increase. imports of apparel by 6.1 Billion in 2008.4 ‐12. Global yarn and fabric productions were continuously falling since the second quarter of 2008. from US$ 212 Billion in 1990 to US$ 612.9 ‐2. The clothing trade is growing at a faster rate. the export of cotton yarn recorded an increase of 50%. Silk & Synth. Spinning industry makes the basic raw material for the downstream industry. largely due to a shortfall in Chinese crop.80 MT 16. 2010 Government imposed a quota of 50 million kg per month for export of yarn.61 $ Million 47. Chinese.129 20.962 500. the import of textile machinery has been showing decreasing trend in a row since 2004‐05. the quota was reduced to 35 million kg per month with effect from 1st March. Canvas & Tarulin Readymade Garments Art.257.DOZ MT MT %Change 2008‐09 2009‐10 $ Million $ Million $ Million 79.com. Consequently.509. low capacity utilization.02 1.711 243.703 393.315. Readymade Garments.3037 1.940 2.972 157. local availability has improved.099 155. Export performance for the period 2008‐09 (Jul‐Mar) to 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) is compared in table 3.43 81.03 MT 14.984 17.75 ‐16.539 74.663 ‐8. The availability of yarn in the local market remained scant and prices kept rising.843 1.628 MT 7.47 31. which is the biggest producer and consumer of cotton in the world. Closure.Textile Made up Articles Other Textile Materials Unit Value (July‐Mar) %Change Value 2008‐09 2009‐10 MT MT TH.868.944 117.083 141. 56 million kg was exported as appropriate measures to give effect to quota were not put in place in time.903 830.88 TH.94 ‐1.99 $ Million $ Million $ Million 1. and hence moderate quantities of yarn are exported each year.583 953. Because of a global shortage in availability of cotton.290. in particular. Home Textile and made‐up sectors to unviable level aggravated the production and export of yarn products.526 124. 45 published by Accountancy (www.088 0.071. The existing capacity in the spinning sector is more than local demand.363 491.80 ‐ 0 0 0 $ Million 160.67 ‐ 0 0 0 $ Million 358.024 333. as exports of value added textiles were declining at alarming rates (Decrease in: Cloth 16%.645 19.86 13. During the period under review.097 ‐1.96 ‐13. the downstream industry started facing severe shortages of yarn.114 1.243 1. the downstream industry began to close down. # Items 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Raw Cotton Cotton yarn Cotton Cloth Cotton Carded or Combed Yarn other Cotton yarn Knitwear Bed Wear Towels Tents.225 31. Fabric. Accordingly. and Bed Wear & Made Ups.80 Source: Federal Bureau Statistics As depicted in table 3.pk) .92 24. In the first six months of the current fiscal year Jul‐Dec.203 84. losses are heated topics of the day.814 75.59 28.017 ‐43.10 $ Million 914.Manufacturing Knitwear.2 percent against the same period of last year.45 3. Resultantly the production and export performance of Textile sector had shown a mixed trend.337 51.258 211. the foreign demand for Pakistan’s cotton yarn has risen exceptionally.7 Table 3. knitwear 8% and garments 8%). To stay in the market industry is making distress efforts. have procured huge quantities of yarn from Pakistan. With excessive exports during the year.062 9.97 $ Million 16.92 $ Million 18. In January.SQM 222.5. even though they are the fiercest competitor of Pakistan in the world market.546 336. During January 2010.677 1.114 4.275.7: Export performance of Textile Industry Quantity (July‐Mar) S.342 37.SQM 72. the import of textile machinery witnessed a growth rate of 14.821 473.DOZ 22.130 1.636 379.496.Since the reduction in quota.307.21 TH. The anxiety and pain suffered by the local industry intensified.315 1.571 48. 2009.374 8.224 238.42 ‐39. Textiles are exported in the form of Yarn.140 TH.13 $ Million 190. 2010.129 102.256.597 1.accountancy.0 9.336 ‐8. 000 Knitting Machines spread all over the country.) (July‐Mar) 2008‐2009 Mill Sector 763. This trend is likely to intensify in the country. Cotton Bags.8: Import of Textile Machinery Year 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 928. These components are being produced both in the large scale organized sector as well as in unorganized cottage / small & medium units.4 14.com. and Power Loom Units.24 502.813 ‐0.Mtrs. There is Investment in the shuttle‐less looms both in integrated and independent weaving sector.15 6648. Independent Weaving Units.383 Non Mill Sector 5895.0 ($ million) July‐March % Change 2008‐09 2009‐10 171.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 3. cotton cloth. Tents & Canvas. The performance of these various ancillary textile industries is evaluated below. and Hosiery & Knitwear & Readymade Garments including Fashion Apparels.89 438. a) Hosiery Industry There are about 12. scarcity of quality yarn and lack of institutional financing for its development from unorganized sector to an organized one. Integrated. The Spinning Sector is the most important segment in the hierarchy of textile production. The major product groups are Towels. There is greater reliance on the development of this industry as there is substantial 46 published by Accountancy (www. Table 3. Problems of the power loom sector revolve mainly around the poor technology. 2008‐09. There are three different sub‐ sectors in weaving viz.6 817. The growth of power loom sector is due to favorable Government Policies as well as Market forces.pk) .4 compares export performance of made‐up sector during the period July‐march 2008‐2009 and 2009‐2010. ii) Cloth Sector The pattern of Cloth Production is different than spinning sector. during July – March. The Capacity utilization is approx 70%. towels.420 ‐0. hosiery and knitwear and readymade garments. cotton yarn.837 (July‐Mar) 2009‐2010 % Age Change 762. The production of cloth sector has shown in following table.15 Source: Ministry of Textile iii) Textile Made‐Up Sector This is the most dynamic segment of Textile Industry.9 : Sector‐wise Production Production (M. The Power Loom Sector have modernized and registered a phenomenal growth over the last two decades.393 ‐0. it is comprised of 521 textile units (50 composite units and 471 spinning units) with 10. cotton fabric.27 212.13 5886. Table 3.454 Total 6658. fabric processing.2‐1 Ancillary Textile Industry: This topic includes cotton spinning. At present.2 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics 3. This sector is producing comparatively low value added Grey Cloth of mostly inferior quality. i) Cotton Spinning Sector. home textiles.Sq.1 Million spindles and 114 thousand rotors in operation with capacity utilization of 89 percent and 60 percent respectively. Bed‐Wear.accountancy.2 195. The Export performance of Tent & Canvas Industry has been depicted in table 3. liberal import of machinery under different modes is also being made and the capacity based on exports is being developed. Pakistan is the cheapest source of supply of Tents and Canvas.pk) .M.yarn.com. This sector has tremendous potential. Besides import of M. d) Canvas This is the highest raw cotton consuming sector. The existing towels manufacturing factories are required to be geared up to produce higher value towels. medium and large scale units most of them having 50 machines and below. large units are now coming up in the organized sector of the industry. Acetate Rayon Yarn 2. This value‐added sector has also great potential for export. Polyester Filament Yarn 3 Nylon Filament Yarn No of Units 1 21 3 Total Production Capacity 3000 (M. Besides locally manufactured machinery.10: Capacity of Synthetic Filament Yarn S. Presently there are Five (5) Polyester Fiber Units with production Capacity of 640000 Tons per annum. Meters. The export performance of Readymade Garments has been compared in table 3. Fibers is permissible to supplement the local production. Exports remained under pressure. Dewan Salman) has started its commercial production in December 1999.Manufacturing value addition in the form of knitwear. The industry enjoys the facilities of duty free import of machinery and Income Tax exemption. iv) Synthetic Fiber Manufacturing Sector This sector has made progress in line with demand of the Textile Industry.Tonnes) 2000 (M Tonnes) 10.4. b) Readymade Garment Industry The Garment Industry provides highest value addition in Textile Sector. This Industry is dominantly export based and its growth has all the time depended on export outlets. The 60% of its production is exported while 40% is consumed locally by Armed Forces. Today following three kinds of filament yarn are manufactured locally:‐ Table 3.Tonnes) 105376 (M. c) Towel Industry There are about 7500 Towel Looms in the country in both organized and unorganized sector. The Industry is distributed in small.accountancy. Food Department.Tonnes) Source: Ministry of Textile 47 published by Accountancy (www.000 (M.000 Tons per annum. The production capacity is more than 100 million Sq. v) Filament Yarn Manufacturing Industry The Synthetic filament yarn manufacturing industry picked up momentum during 5th Five Year Plan when demand raised and hence imports increased and private sector was permitted to make feasible investment in the rising market conditions. one acrylic fiber unit (M/s. with rated capacity of 25.4. # Type of Yarn 1. 5 (M. Engineering Development Board has initiated the following policy measures.meter) and exports of carpet during the period July to Feb‐ 08 is as under::‐ viii) Jute Industry The main products manufactured by jute industries are jute sakes and hessian cloth.753 metric tones respectively. Blanket 657. 60.Sq.666 metric tones and 98. During the last couple of years Pakistan has made huge strides in other industries as well. During the current financial year. Besides. While it was helpful to the Synthetic Weaving Units. and Carpet 3.235. Tons supply polyester filament yarn.960 M. there are some mobile looms which become operational on market demand.accountancy. Fabrics 3.kgs. vi) Art Silk and Synthetic Weaving Industry Art Silk and Synthetic Weaving Industry has developed over the time on cottage based Power Looms Units comprising of 08‐10 looms spread all over the country. Government in the last year reduced in duty on filament yarn. vii) Woolen Industry The main products manufactured by the Woolen Industry are Woolen Yarn of 6.353 Million.pk) . utilization of indigenous raw materials‐iron ore & coal.meter). Shawls 13. x To narrow the widening demand/supply gap in steel sector.6 percent. There are approximately 90. The local production filament fabrics is not picking up as their exports sales are not feasible and local market is heavily flooded with smuggled goods. Up gradation of steel sector technology & Quality. The Production of Polyester Filament Yarn is approx. 3.000 looms on filament – yarn.3 Other Industries Although. Jalalpur Jattan as well as in the un‐settled area (Bara – Sawat – Khyber Agency and Wazirstan). However.kgs. Tons during July – March 2009.000 looms are working on blended yarn and 60. Some of these are documented below: 3. The production of jute goods for the period of Jul‐Mar. Gujranwala. Pakistan is a large exporter of cotton and textile related products in the world market.com. Acrylic yarn 6. enhance energy 48 published by Accountancy (www.445 (M. depicting an increase of 6.337 Tons per annum and imports during the period July – March 2010 is 116. this is not only part of manufacturing in the country which is growing.864 M.sq. 2008‐09 and Jul‐Mar. Tons as against 89. which are used for packing and handling of wheat.3‐1 Engineering Development Board Engineering Development Board (EDB) over the years has worked as a bridge between the Government and Engineering Sector of the country through consultative process which involves interaction with several private sector stakeholders/organization through formulation of committees headed by private sector representatives.Economic Survey 2009‐10 The polyester filament yarn manufacturing activity has slowed down and currently a large scale imports from China has compelled local industry to close down and only 6 units with operational capacity of 55851 M. its impact on the Filament industry is evident in the form of closure of 15 units. The major concentration is in Karachi – Faisalabad.362 M. Recently Hosiery sector has started consuming synthetic yarns for export of Knitted Garments which are both value added as well as diversification in product. 2009‐10 was 92.000 looms in operation of which 30.964 M. rice and food grains. Manufacturing conservation techniques and to enhance per capita steel consumption. commenced in December 2007. for the next 5 years. the two/three wheeler sector of the industry revived with substantial growth of 48.com.797 48.135 2.661 52.000 164. demand of electrical capital goods in the five years period 2010‐2014 has already been worked out.169 2. In the first phase. Meanwhile.993 53.968 41. Transformers. rise in the price of diesel.335 534. As would appear from the table: 3.3 some growth in passenger cars and trucks and buses has taken place but that is not expected to surpass the highest ever figures.9% 17. x EDB has prepared an Electronic Policy and submitted to the MOI&P with the objectives that Electronics Industry of Pakistan shall supply key products with own brands in consumer electronics and industrial automation capturing major share of the home market which will provide the base for entering exports x Chemical Industry vision was initiated to have own technological and engineering capability in order to make self reliant by progressively reducing dependence on foreign engineering corporations at present involved in the commercialization of chemical and industrial projects.146 4.944 1. towers etc.710 22. sectors has been modest in comparison with the fall that has ripped through the industry last year.8% during the current fiscal year. the industry liven up with the projections stated in the five year Auto‐industry Development Program.521 16. x In order to enhance core competence of the engineering industry of Pakistan.256 657. 49 published by Accountancy (www.800. of Units Produced 2008‐09 2009‐10 % Age 2008‐09 (Jul‐Mar) (Jul‐Mar) Change 84. where a fall persists. EDB as a Business Support Organization (BSO) is providing Senior Volunteer Experts from various international organizations’ 3.878 26. Even so.308 63.pk) . EDB has drafted submitted to the MOI&P a Steel Policy and was for consideration.294 ‐14.2% 59. The persistent fall in LCVs/jeeps is due to their sensitivity to the falling purchasing power. the extent of recovery in other than LCV.969 359. Table:3.8% Source: Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association After a moderate fall last year. undertook huge expansion programs by making substantial investment. coming to 14.accountancy.613 36. exchange rate losses and the escalating operating costs. Comparing with the highest ever figures of 2007‐08 the said recovery in effect represents 30% downturn this year compared to 48% last year.4% for July‐March period of the current year.000 28.11: Production of Automotive Industries Category Installed Capacity 2007‐08 Cars LCVs/Jeeps Buses Trucks Tractors Two/Three Wheelers 275.000 40.4% 662 408 474 16. x A strategy for Electric Capital Goods has been worked out with WAPDA to prepare local industry to meet their demand for electric capital goods like Small hydel turbines. Switchgears.500 65.092 14.9% 511. However the slump that overtaken last year is not abating at that expansion would continue to be idle.2% 3.3‐2 Automotive Industries After recording massive downturn last year the industry has put to some recovery in all the sectors except light commercial vehicles (LCVs).000 5.273 86.188 No.366 12.000 1. which increased by 10.3 per cent share in total nutrient production).2 per cent (86. while. This will reduce fertilizer imports into the country. few companies have started production of SSP (14 per cent) at small scale level and their total annual production capacity is around 20 thousand tonnes. Farm Tractor is indeed a different automotive but its resilience is essentially emanate from high degree of localization and bringing out a product in the market competitive in terms of both quality and price.7 per cent. x In addition. the subsidy on potassic fertilizers has been estimated as Rs.3 per cent share in total nutrient production). Potash blends production was bout 10 thousand tonnes and was almost same as in previous year (0. Along with this. Fertilizer Industry: Domestic fertilizer industry witnessed positive trend in production during the year under review. 450 thousand tonnes of CAN. there has been an inevitable increase in the vehicle costs due to host of reasons the chief being massive currency depreciation. the Government is also providing an indirect subsidy to fertilizer manufacturers by selling feedstock gas (80% of the raw material cost) at approximately 50 per cent lower rates as compared to the price for commercial users. The potential demand for vehicles in the economy maintains a worthwhile promise for the industry and the slow down may not be long lasting. The plant is expected to be operational by September 2010. Rahim Yar Khan. In addition to this. the subsidy on imported Urea by picking the difference over its local price (for price stabilization purpose) continued for 2009‐10. with a capacity of producing 400 thousand tonnes of urea. The production in nutrient terms increased from 2906 thousand tonnes during 2008‐09 to 3024 thousand tonnes during 2009‐10 showing an increase of 4. 500 per bag of 50 kg for potassic fertilizers only. as the consumer is more engaged to meet the other demand inelastic needs. On flip side. buses and tracks. 50 published by Accountancy (www. is expected to start production in the current year. from January. the recovery in automotives would correspond to the macroeconomic stability and consequent recovery in other sectors. There has not been good enough recovery particularly in passenger cars. 14 billion for 2009‐10. Planned capacity additions x A new fertilizer manufacturing plant at Sadiqabad. 2010. 1400 per bag. Gas has already been allocated for the plant. However. phosphate 403 thousand tonnes (13.3 per cent in total nutrient production). For 2009‐10.1 per cent.accountancy. Distt. x Suraj Fertilizer Industries has set up a new plant of SSP (18 per cent) at Harappa (Sahiwal) with production capacity of 150 thousand tonnes annually. However. A general cost increase combined with increased cost of financing has taken away the affordability.pk) .com.5 billion. The persistent high inflation has negatively affected the purchasing power. The subsidy on phosphatic and potassic fertilizers was eliminated on 31st December 2008.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Unlike other automotives the Farm Tractors has been unyielding to prevailing economic crises and are registering persistent growth for the last three years. 400 thousand tonnes of NP and 300 thousand tonnes of NPK. It is a project of Fatima Fertilizer Company. owner of Pak Arab Fertiliser. There is similar outlook for the current year with projected growth of 16%. 0. x Engro Chemical is installing a new urea plant with an annual capacity of 1300 thousand tonnes. Nitrogen production was 2611 thousand tonnes during 2009‐10 and recorded an increase of 3. the Government of Pakistan (GOP) initiated a new scheme of subsidy amounting to Rs. jeeps. the total subsidy on imported Urea is estimated as about Rs. imported Urea has cost the GoP in 2009‐10 at least Rs. 14). Main contributors to this high growth in cement industry were domestic demand and a strong export demand from the neighboring countries.accountancy. Table 3.7 4.7 8. Table 3.7 Value US$ 185 million 450 million 534 million 356 million Source: Ministry of Industry & Production Domestic demand of cement has increased during the period under review due to reduction in local dement prices. Table 3.8 51. Export of cement is exempted from the Sales Tax (16%) and federal Excise Duty (FED).2 million tons thus the balance of 1.2 4.2 +0.2 ‐1.8% Source: Ministry of Industry & Production Sugar Industry There are 82 functional sugar mills in the country out of which 45 are in Punjab.5 2008‐09 1029 50 3.2 ‐1. Ministry of food & Agriculture & Ministry of Industries and Production 51 published by Accountancy (www.3 3.1 million tons new sugar has been produced in the country nearly achieving the target estimated production level of 3.9 6.1 million tons is being imported to meet the gap (Table 3.com.Cement export of Pakistan (Quantity & Value) since 2006‐07 till 2009‐10(Jul‐ Mar) are given in Table 3.1 Source : Sugarcane Commissioner. Presently Pakistan’s cement is being exported to Afghanistan. the annual consumption is 4.0 2009‐10 943 49. However.14 Sugar production as anticipated Sugar Sugarcane Area cropped by Sugar Production Consumption Surplus/Shortfall Production Year sugarcane (million Tones) (million Tones) (Million Tones) (000Hectares) 2007‐08 1241 63 4. India.2 7. 32 in Sindh and 5 in Khyber Pakhtonkhwa.000) tons per day.8 million tons in a season and about six hundred thousand (600.1 million tons. Africa. In the current crushing season 2009‐10 a total quantity of 3. and Middle East.1 4.Manufacturing 3.12: Cement Export of Pakistan Year 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) Exports (Million Tonnes) 3. Capacity utilized is 60‐70% depending upon sugarcane production. reduction in other building material prices and reduction of federal excise duty (FED) on cement in the last budget of 2009‐10.13: Demand/Supply/Production of Cement Installed Capacity No of Units Local Demand (2008‐09) Production during 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) Capacity Utilization (2009‐10)(Jul‐Mar) (Million tones) 44 29 19.12.4 22.pk) .3‐3 Cement Industry Cement industry played a vital role in the up trend of manufacturing sector during the current financial year of 2009‐10. The total sugar production capacity is 6. 5 50 3. the mining and quarrying sector depicted a dismal growth of negative 2.3 percent during the first nine months of on going fiscal year. 26.9 660 31.0 89.4 24.Cu.7 80. Expansion in the production capacity of Pakistan Steel to 3. iron ores and coal.000 MTN within next three years.6%) and baryte (26.0 4. 2009 to February. x Pakistan Steel is considering execution of its expansion plan in two stages which will be completed in next 03 to 05 years. dolomite (69. Future Plan:‐ x The domestic consumption of steel products is presently around 5‐6 mtpy.0 1. Due to financial crunch as a result of huge loss of Rs. Despite best efforts. sulphur (6.com.3 19. The growth of coal declined by (18. caused crash of steel products market world over in terms of both price wise and quantity wise and consequently production of steel industry world over has suffered very badly during the year 2008‐09 which was continuing during the year 2009‐10 also. industrial minerals.6 %). as per its requirement.7 %).7 %).7 1380 1362 ‐1. Despite of these.3 %).9 800 33.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Pakistan Steel The unprecedented economic melt down which started in the year 2008.pk) .0 ‐69. Pakistan being an importer of basic raw materials. Most of principal minerals witnessed negative growth rate during the period under review. has also suffered due to this crisis. However.1 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics 52 published by Accountancy (www.9 0.2 17.5 %) followed by crude oil (6. Table 3.1 %) respectively. x Pakistan Steel has started an indigenization program to replace costly imported iron ore by locally available material and it is expected that 2.1 42.15: Extraction of Principal Minerals Minerals Coal Natural Gas Crude Oil Chromite Dolomite Gypsum Limestone Magnesite Rock Salt Sulphur Baryte Unit of Quantity Millions Tonnes Min.8 3. has remained at 43 percent capacity utilization.50.1 246. Pakistan Steel production during July.0 26.000 metric tones (MTN) iron ore (local) will be arranged for its utilization at Pakistan Steel this year which will be enhanced to 500.4 Mining and Quarrying Pakistan has a widely varied geological frame work.1 %) respectively during the current financial year (See Table 3.9 1849 29. financial loss during the year 2009‐10 is expected to be much lower than the loss suffered in the year 2008‐09.2 ‐18.3 19.3 25.0 ‐26.3%) and (32.accountancy. However.Barrels 000 Tonnes 000 Tonnes 000 Tonnes Million Tonnes 000 Tonnes 000 Tonnes 000 Tonnes 000 Tonnes 2007‐08 2008‐09 4.10 ‐94. a viable proposal.15). rock salt (1.1 25. natural gas and chromite posted positive growth rate of (1.M Min.5 31. precious and semi‐ precious stones.4 1.0 mtpy or above is.1 2.7 63 July‐March % 2008‐09 2009‐10 2.5 billion suffered by Pakistan Steel in the year 2008‐09.4 ‐6. 2010.6 115 359.7 249.0 31. therefore. ranging from pre‐Cambrian to the Present that includes a number of zones hosting several metallic minerals.0 107 32. Pakistan Steel has not been able to arrange import of basic raw materials.6 532 539 3.6 46.4 75.91 ‐6. magnesite (94.0 34.7 41.6 1917 25.7 2. 3.7 18. Manufacturing 3. ii) Value addition Plants/Ferro Chrome Plants. 43% of the total area.5 Mineral Production in Balochistan Balochistan. the mining activities are primarily carried out by the private sector and mines and mineral development department.No.215 million have been approved by the Government for implementation by SMEDA. iii) Mini Steel Mill at Chagai and Dilband Iron ore deposits. employment generation and poverty reduction. 2.6 Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority (SMEDA) SMEs are considered as one of the most important driving forces behind economic development. Balochistan is resource rich province having substantial deposits of metallic and non‐metallic minerals. foundry. SMEDA worked on a series of demonstration projects/CFCs in major SME clusters for productivity and competitiveness enhancement of SME sector. glass products and light engineering sectors 53 published by Accountancy (www. agro based industry. SMEs jointly contribute approximately 30% to GDP.166 Source: Mines & Mineral development department Govt. 2004‐05 208. These include projects in sports. 2007‐08 537. In Balochistan. creation of job opportunities for the local. In 2009‐10.57 6. employ 80% of the non‐agricultural labour force. 2006‐07 380. 4. Allocation/provision of more funds for infrastructure development.accountancy.pk) . 2005‐06 252. July2009 to March 2010 435. 3. (Rent & royalty).com. Period Revenue Receipts 1. as well as increase in the revenue to Government exchequer. 2008‐09 524. enjoys a unique strategic position. 3.16: Detail of Revenue Recipients S.190 sq. covering an area of 347. Establishment of Mineral based industry within province like: i) Cement Factories.76 3. leather. Implementation of Minerals Sector Development Programme with the assistance of World Bank. Revenue recipients Enhancement of the mineral activity has not only provided socio‐economic uplift of the remote areas of the province. As many as 20 projects amounting to Rs. the largest province of Pakistan. 25% to total exports and 35% to manufacturing value addition. Accelerated Exploration activities of Minerals Resources of the Province. iv) Establishment of Coal based Power Plants.69 5. This Directorate has collected revenues on account of rent & royalty since 2004‐05 to March2010 are as given below:‐ Table 3. 2. of Balochistan Future Plans 1.928 4.km.72 2. similar projects have also been approved for implementation in Peshawar. exhibition/display facilities and business development services including training to women entrepreneurs. SME Policy 2007 envisaged creation of a venture capital fund and credit guarantee scheme in its implementation plan. Women Business Incubation Centre (WBIC). Quetta and Karachi.Economic Survey 2009‐10 besides business and display facilities for SMEs such as Gujranwala Business Centre. Some of these projects were envisaged in the SME Policy 2007 implementation plan.accountancy. such as the SME Subcontracting Exchange and Policy & Project Implementation. After the success of WBIC Lahore. State bank of Pakistan is steering the process of establishing these two initiatives. To facilitate SMEs in this regard. Sports Industry Development Center and Women Business Incubation Centers. Monitoring & Evaluation Unit (PPIMEU). all under one roof. Access to finance has been a long standing problem faced by SMEs in Pakistan.com.pk) . These Centers will provide rental space for offices. PPIMEU has been established in SMEDA head office to oversee the implementation of demonstration projects and Common Facility Centres (CFC) being implemented by SMEDA through the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP). A credit guarantee scheme and venture capital fund were later announced by the Government in Federal Budget 2009‐10. Lahore was established in 2007. 54 published by Accountancy (www. To facilitate women entrepreneurs. 489 75.583 352.166 9.256 3.994 249.512 31...591 180.115 215. : Not available Chromite Coal 185 billion tonnes 3.512 3.144 990 472 China Clay 4.427 25.) published by Accountancy (www.419 199.740 9.TABLE 3.854 3.com.689 312.831 347.918 fairly large Deposits 24 28 23 11 13 27 35 35 18 26 22 24 31 29 46 52 104 115 89 81 107 2.398 1.773 1.066 994 1.682 4.496 3.pk) .066 3.589 10.224 246.: Nil or Insignificant P : Provisional Argonite/ Marble Very large Deposits 281 321 388 460 467 458 459 345 403 579 620 685 1.1 RESERVES AND EXTRACTION OF PRINCIPAL MINERALS Antimony (tonnes) Reserves/ Years 1990-91 128 1991-92 1992-93 5 1993-94 3 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 95 2001-02 37 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 5 2005-06 91 2006-07 119 2007-08 245 2008-09 75 July-March 2008-09 60 2009-10 P .150 14. 1.280 1.046 198.556 116. .000 Fire Clay Over 100 million tons 120 139 132 116 152 112 110 94 153 139 164 171 117 193 254 333 347 330 148 Fullers Earth fairly large Deposits 23 21 23 17 15 18 12 18 16 19 13 16 15 14 17 16 11 11 4 Gypsum Anhydrite 350 million tons 468 471 533 666 620 420 522 307 242 355 364 402 424 467 552 601 624 660 800 259 221 8 9 532 539 (000 tonnes) Lime Stone Very large Deposits 9.164 3.241 228.653 183.054 3.069 1.403 762 812 961 642 802 807 382 402 570 1.079 185. .789 33.378 3.043 3.530 1.864 297.467 9.987 220.285 3.537 1.702 4.627 3.528 9.125 9.952 342.835 1.accountancy.463 359.674 Dolomite (tonnes) Very large Deposits 154.682 9.009 8.145 3.325 3.609 3.000 (Contd.310 470 23 670 10 .100 24.960 2.160 1.980 1.870 10.534 3.015 9.880 13.465 3..857 18.367 3.820 11.090 227.9 million tons 44 42 37 48 31 43 66 68 67 63 47 54 40 25 38 53 31 32 17 Celestite (tonnes) .491 11..855 3.540 26.886 340. 1 RESERVES AND EXTRACTION OF PRINCIPAL MINERALS Magnesite (tonnes) Reserves/ Years 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 July-March 2008-09 2009-10 P P : Provisional 4.49 22.066 154 971 135 1.214 46 34 135.19 23.103 22.394 155 1.182 67.793 4.pk) .92 23.65 17.513 4.223 137.796 174.446 3.733 7.366 41.46 22.397 3.645 4.255 320.536 88.362 280 252 Ochre (tonnes) Sulphur (tonnes) Soap Stone Baryte 1.907 18.68 19.047 7.047 3.637 2.665 46.000 745 4.65 40.333 5.946 104.044 78.428 22.242 6.57 16.03 41.477 26 7 .78 26.26 30.980 24.47 21.215 56.285 1.639 1.TABLE 3..214 19.18 41.227 14.91 31.com.08 39.380 1.074 3.682 34.942 11.575 5.445 3.730 27.864 100 Rock Salt Silica Sand Over 100 Very million large tons deposits 736 143 833 132 895 158 916 169 890 152 958 184 1.82 20.784 0.50 17.358 167 1.859 411 1.566 37.370 150. metre 14.62 25.27 20.081 2.36 5 million tons 26 30 26 18 20 14 30 30 18 26 28 21 41 44 42 52 47 50 63 Bauxite/ Laterite (tonnes) Over 74 million tons 24.40 Source : Federal Bureau of Statistics.849 403 1.873 402 1.86 21.158 24.426 185 1.320 61.071 240.001 1.640 259 1.617 0.554 33.03 (000 tonnes) Natural Gas (000 m.05 21.873 24.mtr.064 6.66 15.580 19.458 19.259 125.981 6.861 18.483 84.96 228.288 60.237 35.60 24.917 370 1.278 131.cu.54 19. published by Accountancy (www.455 4.62 24.645 6.046 4.90 20.679 3.691 5.648 309 1.12 23.500 38.745 68.623 8.accountancy.000 5.792 8.362 48.583 28.686 34.8 million tons 295 215 510 715 510 20 640 22.818 18.76 19.984 32.) 492 billion cu.11 34.114 37.485 Iron Ore (tonnes) Over 430 million tons 318 937 1.95 20.765 4.423 157 1.644 21.920 19. barrels) 184 million US barrels 23.85 19.16 28.485 25.975 17.77 18.190 158 1.710 29.402 23.080 4.103 6. Crude Oil (m.147 4.17 24.879 286.940 2.151 45.029 2.94 24.08 23.40 21.6 million tons 32 37 48 44 34 40 45 49 61 48 47 39 66 52 21 21 45 38 14 44.215 19.812 17.06 38.922 3. .5 448.8 504.6 162. .8 1999-2000=100 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 July-March 2008-09 2009-10 P .6 427.3 509.4 597..pk) .5 283.6 532.7 155.8 248.4 173.6 112.4 194.6 134.accountancy..7 1980-81=100 275.0 188. : Not available P : Provisional 100..5 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.8 278.2 270.8 .1 545.9 195.5 160.8 520. .2 PRODUCTION INDEX OF MINING AND MANUFACTURING Year 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1969-70=100 468 472...8 148.2 .8 205.2 240.3 412.5 237.8 296. ..1 512..4 243.4 275.8 123.8 160.0 101..3 656.5 227..3 449..com.4 461..3 456. .6 302. 468.6 203. .6 576.1 478 483.0 105.4 158. .7 305.2 277. .7 709.6 270.1 146. .1 Mining 1975-76=100 410.1 417.5 218.0 114.8 420.1 213.7 611.3 .5 119. . 100.TABLE 3..6 445... .9 164. Manufacturing 1980-81=100 202.8 497..8 572.1 261. 219. 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 P P : Provisional .493 15 4.514 9 9.3 3.0 1.6 1.041.6 2. .852 5 11.356 5 8.267 64.839.com.594 5 8.7 31.137 10 6.134.2 34.104.884 76.929. of Spindles Looms Spindles Looms (000) (000) (000) (000) 5.834 8 9.5 44.2 24.540.2 2.3 1.808..652.6 1.0 41.5 2.768 14 5.405 .148.669.9 1.427.4 1.6 2.9 1.4 1.141 15 5.2 1.272.855.101 .3 34.155.934.001.922.7 1.6 1.0 1..6 1.307 14 5.7 307.4 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics Textile Commissioner Organization published by Accountancy (www.216 10 7.892 76. : Not available Working at the end Installed Capacity of the period No.4 576.0 .9 1.8 37.019.5 24.7 1.4 384.3 1.623 5 9.802 57.4 . of Mills 247 271 284 320 334 349 357 353 348 351 353 354 363 357 423 437 427 427 369 .754 8 6.016.5 1.6 321.731.2 1.266 8 10.8 55.7 21.9 1.7 32.625 55.478.4 437.967 10 7.298 10 6.3 38..809.556.383 10 6.2 568.369.9 1.734 52.433 6 8.1 36.604.6 1.221 49.3 1.7 490.400 75.TABLE 3.961.6 915.3 2. ConsumpTotal Surplus Total Protion of Yarn ProYarn duction Cotton duced of Cloth (mln kg) (mln.342.594 10 7.532.5 1.7 327.960 4 10.670.556 4 8.606 46.375 4 10. kg) (mln. sq mtr.005 55.9 340.2 1.652 72.182 14 5.328.1 1.631 4 11.197. of No.0 1.9 683.2 2.070.239 53.) 1.057 4 11.622.1 1. Loom Hours Worked (Million) 60.1 1.2 1.274.520.2 58.941 9 8..260 8 6.2 2.542 43.. Spindle Hours Worked (Million) 39.0 1.397.168 9 9.pk) .9 333.9 1.9 924.143.1 1.4 2.700.4 37.495.3 1.4 2.465 5 8. 762.3 1.255 74.0 292.434.934 4 10.1 36.499 10 7.6 325.8 1.9 1.2 .accountancy.2 2.750 4 8.309..8 1.0 1.274 10 6. 1. of No.483.661.991 5 8.078 5 9.340.648..012.835.623.kg) (mln.4 2.205 59.751.159.6 2.270.9 3.8 1.3 2.473.482.7 2.7 35..457.493 13 6. .558.721.8 314.170.8 21.932.886 6 8.4 2.105 4 8.274 69.3 COTTON TEXTILES STATISTICS Year No.4 2.364 47.219 61.8 2.371.727. of No.8 1.. 353 18.3 350.pk) .1 0.5 330.956 3.3 338.4 329.7 3.862 16.732.635 9.3 Ammonium Sulphate 92.964 2.567 9.4 4.652.accountancy.2 316.059 3.6 4.8 148.763 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.674 9.469 3.785.2 242.564 22.5 305.005.4 335.7 163.247 3.com.527 4.8 343.3 1.6 143.259.1 4.6 4.8 386.9 363.686 4.8 329.7 3.8 187.321 8.4 4.0 261.521.9 161.380 3.9 92.5 350.960 3.8 3.4 PRODUCTION OF FERTILIZERS.8 297.542 2.606.050.7 313.5 245.9 356.9 327.3 282.841 2.2 167.3 293.935 10.0 336.3 - 218.0 2.934 2.536 9.364 9.431.3 251. SUGAR AND CEMENT (000 tonnes) Year 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 July-March 2008-09 2009-10 P .558 8.0 205.7 304.2 3.0 4.2 122.0 21.116 2.9 4.4 Super Phosphate 175.1 147. VEGETABLE GHEE.898.739 26.762 8.806.924.6 325.4 Fertilizers Ammonium Nitrate 318.8 159.000.0 79.9 - Nitro Phosphate 321.384 2.103.021 3.5 374.783.2 285.284.048 1.918.4 285.180 1.4 210.0 195.260.7 Vegetable Ghee 656 639 725 671 711 733 714 719 773 695 835 797 772 888 1.314 9.1 160.190 7.751 28.322 2.9 4.733 3.9 82.4 3.0 302.189 20.306.2 3.TABLE 3.7 80.0 103.845 12.152 1.1 3.8 798 778 Sugar Cement 1.4 329.7 305.3 92.6 83.426 2.7 0.9 383.137 1.1 194.258.078 22.383 3.9 330.429 2.7 344.1 3.6 145.555 3.7 244.6 161.0 147.8 300.5 4.0 309.913 9.100 7.401.: Nil P : Provisional Urea 2.5 338. 014 51.5 70.872 3.828 3.569 5.9 100.9 5.594 5.182 4.5 76.110 65.8 104.5 118.630 355.215 185.5 89.0 137.980 612.287 5.942 8.891 6.646 55.019 32.4 81.365 224.704 35.420 9.612 10.976 211.238 55.506 115.137 517.326 61.097 384.938 14.025 6.399 285.887 85.257 (Contd.270 55.224 6.214 98.330 4.938 8.895 143.4 85.com.7 95.051 4.609 434.606 67.988 4.pk) .446 630.) published by Accountancy (www.TABLE 3.9 97.068 5.468 5.4 Motor Tyres (000 Nos) 952 784 712 783 912 1003 525 767 845 856 884 908 1082 1302 5336 5942 7027 6990 7102 Motor Tubes (000 Nos) 646 618 550 706 833 909 643 665 586 490 520 557 616 587 6278 7164 10277 9627 14514 Rubber Cycle Tyres (000 Nos) 3.112 1.415 3.510 Jute Textiles (000 tonnes) 96.817 46.8 77.529 5. (Million bottles) Nos) 67.742 49.146 5.0 104.204 10.978 5.5 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED INDUSTRIAL ITEMS Year 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 July-March 2008-09 2009-10 P P : Provisional Food and Tobacco Beverages Cigarettes (000 doz.336 46.757 5.114 45.612 6.673 139.751 3.accountancy.747 131.164 2.937 5.415 Cycle Tubes (000 Nos) 5.266 29.947 113.823 29.205 4.108 190.607 29.625 49.7 93.198 9.8 102.259 207.900 5.243 3.523 3.767 4.4 68.578 194.848 48.1 129.891 2.004 9.6 68.665 3.969 64.867 5.191 5.894 4.886 75.101 149.798 58.5 85.826 3. 6 26.005 5.5 14.5 286.8 7.2 18.1 869.6 843.3 267.3 17.1 36.5 297.864 22.4 187.9 5.1 61.1 602.1 277.5 428.8 28.8 719.8 478.1 908.4 545.1 39.6 35.1 72.7 300.5 101.5 150.7 217.7 330.) published by Accountancy (www.500 7.5 15.7 145.7 68.3 80.0 764.8 9.3 14.5 428.) (000 Nos.TABLE 3.7 120.0 36.3 81.1 959.831 651.3 239.2 19.023 17.5 82.0 534.5 206.0 64.7 888.5 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED ITEMS Chemicals Paints & Varnishes Polishes & Creams for Footwear Transport.1 84.6 37.6 969.3 535.6 998.2 281.6 563.1 221.950 16.9 196.7 57.1 18.7 11.865 8.0 118.1 15.9 24.4 588.) 147.3 76.3 (Contd.2 30.4 128.8 78.9 215.5 836.1 59.0 12.6 486.2 115.3 50.7 109.2 57.6 317.3 318.1 402.6 553.8 181.1 504.626 9.2 248.3 85.4 141.3 242.7 920.4 61.147 23.347 10.936 26.0 57.7 6.8 97.7 664.0 240.6 185.4 69.5 22.3 97.3 950.4 56.1 587.5 89.0 30.1 27.2 261.3 164.922 10.3 121.4 452.4 96.7 219.2 29.6 364.4 450.308 18.373 6.030 8.3 244.917 6.3 332.8 102.4 9.1 5.7 473.159 715.3 102.4 722.7 906.4 629.8 137.7 176.7 27.1 432.1 608.) (000 Nos.1 682. Machinery & Electrical Appliances Sewing Total Bicycles Machines TV Sets Year Soda Ash Sulphuric Acid Caustic Soda Chlorine Gas (000 tonnes) 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 July-March 2008-09 2009-10 P P : Provisional (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) (tonnes) (mln.0 196.5 638.6 91.6 107.3 6.9 17.2 16.9 935.406 15.1 9.9 589.5 11.7 74.2 112.pk) .4 245.com.accountancy.8 988.341 3.5 162.8 861.5 97.2 247.0 92.5 285.3 94.9 365.9 38.3 145.1 569.308 29.3 93.6 99.2 978.2 14.8 897.2 185.2 197.1 52.0 81.899 5.6 716.8 935. grams) (000 Nos. 0 156.2 785.7 464.992 21.7 161.4 146.2 284.008.140.106.4 329.381.0 154.8 7.3 290.6 775.042.0 408.7 143.0 129.0 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics Ministry of Industries published by Accountancy (www.8 56.4 62.6 476.4 388.3 139.5 717.6 1.354 7.417 7.accountancy.715.3 694.8 129.9 57.101 88.0 178.5 350.8 993.7 588.0 246.2 414.5 173.4 403.098.1 330.3 43.9 185.441 10.9 148.7 640.0 252.068.0 1.7 448.2 55.0 263.3 187.002.598 8.943.7 167.8 63.3 186.9 420.0 306.9 1.7 675.6 228.6 58.9 343.6 144.5 723.477.8 182.7 338.7 378.0 2.2 1.8 137.0 109.0 197.Nos) (000 metres) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) 49.6 663.6 111.5 685.179 340.3 326.9 1.6 701.2 767.352 5.2 1.307 5.7 1.048.com.252.874.2 54.2 1.7 412.7 192.2 66.015.6 64.2 247.4 771.071.TABLE 3.524 11.2 2.5 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED INDUSTRIAL ITEMS Year 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 July-March 2008-09 2009-10 P P : Provisional Electrical Appliances Electric Electric Bulbs Tubes Paper & Board Paper Paper Board (All Types) Steel Products Coke Pig Iron Billets (Mln.991 7.2 106.8 206.7 188.6 228.7 1.460 4.0 667.6 166.2 716.5 330.1 1.0 3.2 449.pk) .198 2.2 41.1 276.6 45.5 66.2 1.728 4.7 1.137.1 345.614 19.3 42.4 429.252.0 1.9 423.7 1.8 91.0 3.205 5.5 772.5 332.542 10.4 193.0 72.678.180.7 41.819 19.8 989.9 1.073.3 1.6 737.8 163.137 10.4 149.844 14.044.9 1.400 19.6 1.3 208.9 10.8 133.2 110.4 791. 51) (5.04 9.50 Veg.39 35.31) 20.49) 11.95 (9.22 12.34) 3.18 3.07 (2.54 (0.88 4.09 6.10 (2.32) (1.26) 8.44 4.09 1.53 10.65 20.92) 24.41) 21.38) 12.42) 12.76) 0.38) (26.70 7.03 8.29 5.52) 14.11 18.84 13.59) 0.77 7.04 13.04) Cotton Cloth (0.73 12.59 9.14 (21.80 (0.12 5.20 2.86 (8.65) 5.accountancy.61) (1.59) Sugar 4.61) 14.16 17.80 25.96 3.45) 5.15 4.41) (0.80 11.46) 12.45 2.27) 12.21 6.56 (8.06 5.14 13.33 (18.72 0.22 11.24 (6.52 22.30) (1.11 10.71) (0.75) 15.87 2.6 PERCENT GROWTH OF SELECTED INDUSTRIAL ITEMS Cotton Yarn 14.89 3.11 10.63) (6.70 12.19 1.66 17.64) (10.23) 10.50 (1.80) 2.29 6.31 (22.15) (1.61) 9.11 (8.73 5.74 10.69) 38.53) (3.02 (5.37 (10.65) 19.41 3.62 1.77) 49.15 20.27) (0.48) 18.02 13.72) (0.com.34 14.25) (2.06 17.95 0.TABLE 3.97 3.96 (1.89) (7.36 2.90 (0.52 8.63 (11.17 4.87) 4.13 7.21 (0.77) 38.27) 8.93) (2.10 18.22 12.92) 19.12 20.16 1.29 4.85 9.98 (8.06 2.53 26.32) 12.22 10.18 (0.37) (21.01) 19.01 4.66 7.09 (22.37) 2.73 2.17) (2.67 19.05 Jute Goods 1.03 (7.16 34.47) Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.59 7.44 (2.59) 13.60 27.43 4.48) (31.75) (2.70 9.07) Note : Figures in parenthesis represent negative growth Cigarettes Fertilizers Cement Soda Ash (3.21 Caustic Soda 6.68 (3.54 6.98 2.67 4.57 2009-10 (1.33) 3.47) (3.09 2.41) (0.71 11.73 18.09 1.05) (10.20 4.31 (2.49 17.18 0.15) 6.22 3.76 0.11 7.12) 4.49 (0.45 (3.58 8.86 2.35) (2.99 2.09 (2.20 (32.13 (3.66) (5.Ghee 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 July-March 2008-09 (0.96 1.64 6.30 (3.62 9.86 (10.38) (1.89 (3.87 2.31 4.pk) .66 11.48 9.84 (5.97 9.99) 21.33) 6.37 0.19 3.46 (7.66 (2.87 0.23) 2.44 (0. 7 Pakistan 55. because employment and growth are unlikely to return to their pre‐crisis levels.2). % of GDP) 2007 Country 2009 (pre‐crisis) Australia 8.) economic and financial crises in the last 70 years. Tax‐to‐ GDP ratio. Source: UNDP. With Pakistan’s tax collection amounting 55 published by Accountancy (www. including more favourable levels of deficits. the prudent course for policymakers has been to adopt a path of stabilization.1 68.6 79. Germany. as United Kingdom United States 787 governments were forced to recapitalize banks. Persistently high inflation over this period has also limited the options for the central bank in the conduct of its monetary policy. even where it had remained relatively low before the crisis (Table 4.8 Source: IMF. Countries like China.5 central bank balance sheets has taken place in the Japan 29.1: Stimulus Packages (est.3 the world as an instrument of counter‐cyclical Germany 80. A dramatic expansion of government and India 38.7 Canada 64. contingent liabilities and interest rates. Country USD (Billions) fiscal policy has made a strong comeback around China 585.7 217. to around 13% in April 2010. because many governments not only had to bail out ailing banks. Table 4.9 France 63.5 policy. employment and other benefits will need to be paid for several years.8 India 80. UK and US entered the crisis with greater fiscal space to expand. March 2010 take over a large part of the debts of failing financial institutions and introduce large stimulus programs to revive the economy (Table 4. but also pay for rising unemployment benefits in addition to providing stimulus to the economy.2 aftermath of the global financial crisis. Strengthening the negative feedback loop. World Economic Outlook.5 58. Consequently. According to the IMF. This course has proved to be more appropriate.accountancy.pk) . The nexus between low tax revenue collection. with inflation subsiding from a historic peak of 25% in October 2008. and the future path of growth in the economy needs to be examined further. and an elevated ‐ and rising – public debt stock has imposed a hard constraint on the size of fiscal stimulus that can be provided to the economy.4 Germany 63.5 83.2: General Government Debt (Gross.4 297.5 13.4 United Kingdom 44.Public Finances 4 Against a backdrop of the most severe global Table 4.2 75. the stock of public debt.8 77.1 Japan 187. public debt. public debt in advanced economies is expected to grow further.6 China 20. April 2010 With the slowdown in Pakistan’s economy coming in the wake of a macroeconomic crisis in 2008 that resulted from policy‐induced imbalances of the past. over the past three years public debt has grown sharply in countries. In the case of Pakistan.6 United States 63.1 88.1). and declining. a worsening of public debt sustainability could be transmitted back to the banking system. the fiscal deficit. As a result.2 20. a low.com. after a short review of recent developments with regards to public finances. The target required a 20 percent increase over last year’s collection of Rs. Contribution to (in percent): proportionate growth in government revenue. and the incremental borrowing needed to be undertaken on that front.com. indicating the mismatch between the sources of growth in the economy and the tax revenue base. the rate of inflation. 900. for many of the past several years. Hence. after taking into account the impact on the external imbalance. 4. the increase is likely to be larger.accountancy.08%. the additional expenditure absorbed in the budget on account of any fiscal stimulus measure. Pakistan’s high‐growth periods have lasted a maximum of around 4 to 5 years – with or without a stimulus. Pakistan has embarked on a meaningful program of economic reform. Against this target. To remove structural impediments to sustained economic growth in the long run.2% for Sri Lanka. tax buoyancy and other key economic indicators. and at the very least. 7 billion. including possibly development spending. for every one percentage point increase in the fiscal deficit – with the impact on growth less than clear. Looking at the structure of budgetary expenditure.3 Recent Developments: 2009‐10 4. *For 2009‐10 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics.380 billion taking into account expected growth in GDP. the absence of policy stimulus does not appear to explain the short – and increasingly infrequent – spells of high growth in Pakistan’s economy. 88. debt servicing (including repayment of foreign loans) is expected to account for 27% of total expenditure for the current fiscal year. such as the abysmally low tax revenue collection. Each 1% increase in the size of the fiscal deficit increases the public debt stock by at least 1.6 billion. which is 14 percent higher than the net collection of Rs. On the end‐March 2010 outstanding stock of public debt. and 14.Economic Survey 2009‐10 to around 9‐10% of GDP at best. In fact. or reducing support for the most vulnerable groups in society – the exact opposite of the intended result. This argument is neither borne out by the Agriculture 22 10 1 sources of growth and revenue in the economy. net of refunds.4). 1. In any case. This will be discussed in a subsequent section. the above working would imply an increase of at least Rs.157 billion (see Table 4. Clearly. Given the rigidity of some of the other large expenditure heads. A final point to note regards the durability of the growth that can potentially be delivered through a fiscal stimulus. the notion that growth in the economy Table 4. In actual effect. tax elasticity and buoyancy combined have yielded a Federal Board of Revenue close to unitary value. this would be an undesirable situation. at the current effective interest rate on public debt.025. any increase in debt servicing requirements will necessarily encroach on other areas of spending.9 56 published by Accountancy (www. nor Industry 25 30 63 by Pakistan’s historical experience in this regard (see Services 53 60 26 Table 4. or expenditure on vulnerable segments of the population.3). as it could lead to reducing Pakistan’s longer term growth prospects. 1. as compared to 12. Historically. This incremental debt stock would generate an annual debt servicing liability of over Rs. tax collection during the first ten months of the current fiscal year (July‐April) stood at Rs. is GDP* Growth* Taxes misplaced.pk) . The lynchpin of this reform program is enhancing Pakistan’s capacity to mobilise domestic resources. such as security spending. for example. with efficiency as well as equity. 1.2 billion in public debt. would necessarily imply an increase in the stock of public debt.9% for India.3‐1 FBR Tax Revenues The FBR revenue target for FY10 was set at Rs.3: Sources of Growth and Tax leads to autonomous. 8 161 91.com. the reinstatement of the tax audit regime.3 117.0 15. Direct Tax For July‐April 2010. contributing 38 percent of total receipts.4 1157 2008‐09 July‐April 2009‐10 522 367. and the restructuring of tax administration undertaken should all contribute in increasing the pace of tax revenue collection in the months ahead. while gross and net collection has registered a growth of 16 and 17 percent during July‐April 2010.5 16.4 29. should also start yielding results.0 874 597.6 900.7 5 125. A pick up in economic activity. an early resolution of the energy situation.accountancy.1 359. Despite the impressive increase.5 2. the highest growth of 16 % has been recorded in the case of sales tax receipts.2 435.5 ‐18.3 116. Among the four federal taxes.9 17. Table 4.3 3.5 7. INDIRECT TAXES Gross Refund/Rebate Net B.3 ‐37. Going forward. 389.9 427.5 percent of the annual target has been achieved during July‐April 2010. 57 published by Accountancy (www.4 568 660.3 0.Public Finances billion in the corresponding period of last year.1 636.1 SALES TAX Gross Refund/Rebate Net B. a continuation of the trend of improvement in the global economy.1 19 416 14.1 34.5 billion.E) % Change Over 2008‐09 1087.7 61.5 63.3 22.3 0.4 9.2 %) and federal excise (3.2 FEDERAL EXCISE Gross Refund/Rebate Net B.9 2009‐10 (R.5 7.6 13.9 166 124.2 332. an improvement in internal security.0 12.6 94. The share of direct taxes in federal tax receipts has increased from 15 percent in the early 1990s to around 38 percent in 2009‐10.1 148. however.0 ‐31.0%). the “actual” income tax base is low.4: Tax Collection Change A. direct taxes have been a major source of FBR tax revenue collection.1 ‐14.6 389.pk) .3 716.7 ‐3.7 5. which had been unwound in conjunction with the launch of the Universal Self‐Assessment Scheme (USAS) a few years ago.3 1396 964.0 547 381.2 37.04 91.2 130.8 Source: Federal Board of Revenue FBR tax performance with respect to the annual target shows that 73.3 CUSTOM Gross Refund/Rebate Net TOTAL TAX COLLECTION Gross Refund/Rebate Net 2008‐09 (Actual) 440. Net collection was estimated at Rs.1 10. customs (7.025 94.1 24. followed by direct tax (17 %). DIRECT TAXES Gross Refund/Rebate Net B.0 1025. since direct tax collection has been boosted since the 1990s by the introduction of the withholding tax (WT) regime.7 452.3 12. enhancement of rate of FED on cigarettes. 53. and increased tax collection from the one percent special excise duty.7 billion. while subsidies and grants totalled an estimated 11. iron and steel products etc.9 billion was earmarked for Defence services. with development and net lending at 21% of the total. 91. including net lending. Despite the economic slowdown. Indirect taxes have shown a relatively better performance which is largely owed to the noticeable collection from domestic sources under both sales tax as well as federal excise duty. On the other hand. Major revenue sources have been POL. natural gas. while Rs.6 percent of the total FBR tax revenue. Share of defence services stood at 17. edible oil. sales tax increased by 16 percent. 416 billion respectively showing a growth of 14. 132 billion was allocated for subsidies. and the impact of the energy crisis. 313.2 percent. 616.5). Of net collection.3‐3 Review of Public expenditure In the Federal budget for 2009‐10. telecom services. Within net domestic sales tax collection. POL products and services. and Rs.3 billion during July‐April 2010 against Rs. 647. interest payments of Rs. The net collection of federal excise stood at Rs.accountancy.1 billion were estimated. 58 published by Accountancy (www. automobiles. In terms of structure of budgeted expenditure. sugar and cigarettes. major contribution has come from POL products. natural gas. advertisement. current expenditure was estimated to account for 79% of total spending. with collection exhibiting a growth of 7. a substantial decline of nearly 5 percentage points over 2008‐09 actuals. plastic resins. including a decline in both volume of imports as well as landed prices. comprising of Rs. registering a growth of 3.6 billion in the corresponding period of last year. banking.260. while the rest originates from imports. This growth is mainly attributed to an increase in domestic sales tax collection under the heads of electrical energy. 2.877.4 percent is contributed by sales tax on domestic production and sales. The major revenue spinners are cigarettes. Within indirect taxes.7 billion as compared with Rs. 2. 342.4 billion was estimated for the full year. 125.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Indirect Tax Indirect taxes grew by 12 percent during July‐April 10 and accounted for 68. 94.2%. services.com. machinery.0 percent. edible oil. FBR has been able to exceed the collection of the previous year by a significant margin.1 percent and 16 percent respectively over the corresponding period of previous fiscal year. beverages. 4.2 billion during the same period last year. cement. POL products.5 billion of development expenditure. The gross and net collection of Sales tax stood at Rs.1 and Rs. Debt servicing accounted for 27% of total expenditure in the federal budget 2009‐10. a total expenditure of Rs.8% (see Table 4. with a collection of Rs. 117. insurance services and services provided by stockbrokers during the budget FY10. 435. iron and steel and machinery and mechanical appliances have a major contribution in the import stage collection of Sales tax. Rs. sugar. Among the major expenditure heads. while the allocation for Grants amounted to Rs.9 billion of current expenditure (79% of total). vehicles.pk) . Custom duty collections have improved marginally. beverages and motor cars. 6* 34.8 1720.1 15039 Growth July‐Mar 2009‐10 7.4 2027.7 15. Dev. 1402 billion during July‐March FY10.2 680.8 246.1 16.2 ‐4.2 815.4 20.5 Net Lending C.8 6.8 ‐4.4 19. Actual Actual Estimate July‐June July‐June 2009‐10 2007‐08 2008‐09 A.4 a) Current Expenditure 1853.1 529.5 ‐ Bank 519.1 149.1 1.3 2877.6 18.5 1850.2* 11.9 12. substantial outlays on security‐related spending as a consequence of the widening as well as intensification of military operations in the north‐west of the country during 2009‐10.0 20.6 2260. Total Expenditure 2276.7 681 b) Development Expenditure & 423.3 647.3 7.0 17. Actual July‐Mar 2008‐09 1.1 GDP at Market Prices 10284 13095 14824 Prov.5 442.3 ‐17. Total revenues grew by 7. Exp.5 303 246.9 343 ‐ Others 616 509. Total Revenue 1499.3 ‐625.9 529.8 224.1 ‐ Non‐Bank 104 223.7 1.1 As % of GDP 7.5 2531.9 305.7 646. Budget Prov.9 2155.5 2002‐03 88.8* 27.6). 2.0 223.739 18.8 26.2 561.1 ‐ Defense 277.6 1415.4 17.2 7.8 23.3 0.7 21. Total expenditure during July‐March FY10 rose to Rs.accountancy.8 2009‐10 B 78.2 2005‐06 73.3 ‐20. Actual July‐Mar 2009‐10 1402 1029.2 11.9 4.1 Source: Budget Wing 59 published by Accountancy (www.4 2008‐09 80.6 533.Public Finances Table 4.6 ‐5.6 2003‐04 81.1 17.9 473.3 ‐27.1 36.5 FBR Revenue 1009.8 19.com.9 92.7 656.4 372.4 19.5 0. Subsidies & Debt Servicing as Defence as % TE as % TE as % TE Grants as % TE % TE 2001‐02 84.3 18.3 329.6 21.4 2006‐07 76.9 20.4 a) Tax Revenue 1050.7 19. a rise of 19% over the same period in 2008‐09 (Table 4.3 149.1 70 b) Non‐Tax Revenue 448.3 ‐ Privatization Proceeds 1.7 percent and reached Rs.40 849.1 i) External Sources 151.4 ‐8.027.2 18. Overall Fiscal Deficit ‐777.8 44.301.8 21. During the first nine months of 2009‐10.9 322.3 210.5 390.7 ‐38.1 33 452.9 ‐ Interest 522.6 144.6: Consolidated Revenue & Expenditure of the Government Prov.2 ‐680. Table 4.3 12.6 35.2 625.1 14.6 2004‐05 77.8 billion.1 2041.5: Structure of Total Expenditure (TE) Years Current Exp.0 26.1 13.9 B.4 ‐8.7 305.0 ‐680. combined with higher than budgeted electricity subsidies.1 3.2 25.4 24.9 1158.7 1593.3 ‐92.6 6.8 681.1 B: Budgeted Source: Budget Wing *Values are not comparable with previous years due to difference in definition used in FY09 & FY10 The following discussion on expenditure is based on firm data for nine months (July to March).7 332 ii) Domestic 625.6 25.8 540. have resulted in some pressure on the budget.6 909.7 616.0 ‐5.6 ‐31.6 7.4 31.4 2007‐08 81.2 Prov.5 0.5 52.2 24.7 1204.6 1380 Provincial Tax Revenue 40.pk) .0 6.2 748.9 Financing of Fiscal Deficit 777.4 455.5* 14.4 ‐722.5 269.8 46.4 722.2 1706. 7 ‐3.7 3 13.5 Interest payment Defence Non‐Defence Non‐Interest Expenditure 18. Under this ad hoc arrangement. The agreed sharing of the divisible pool will now take place on the basis of the following: 3. 42.7 1990's 2.5 3. the NFC award has historically been based on the single criteria of Population.4 10. However. In Pakistan’s case. The 7th NFC Award marks a watershed since it has adopted by consensus a set of multiple criteria for determining horizontal distribution of resources (see Box). 45.com.5 4.7% Federal Transfers to the provincial governments on the basis of the percentage specified against each:‐ 60 published by Accountancy (www.1 2000‐04 2. the share of provincial governments in the federal divisible pool was increased starting 2006‐07 annually to 41. The distribution of resources and fiscal equalisation transfers are a contentious issue around the world.0 and 46. The last award was adopted in 1997 for a period of five years. 1.1 8.4 0.pk) .4‐1 Allocation of Resources between the Federal Government & Provinces An important development in public finances is the recent agreement between the federal and provincial governments on the 7th National Finance Commission (NFC) Award.3 0. 43.0% • Inverse population density 2.7 ‐2. 2. The distribution of resources has been made on multiple criteria instead of single criteria of population.4 13. after its expiry in 2002. Box‐1: Salient Features of 7th NFC award.5.8 Source: EA Wing.9 8.5 9. • Population 82.0 * Budget estimate for 2008‐09 Current Expenditure Development Expenditure 10.accountancy.6 ‐1. Only the fourth successfully concluded in Pakistan’s entire 63‐year history.3‐4 Trend in Real Expenditure Table 4.2 ‐8.6 1.2 0. the NFC Award lays the basis for resource distribution between the Center and the Provinces (vertical distribution). and the first in the last nineteen years.7 0. agreement on the award was amended under the Distribution of Revenue and Grant‐in‐Aid Amendment Order 2006.9 5 0. and between the Provinces (horizontal distribution).2 2004‐09* 7.4 1990‐II 3.7 2.1 5.5. Finance Division 4.Economic Survey 2009‐10 4.3 8.7: Trends in Real Expenditure (1999‐2000=100) (% Growth) Total Expenditure Period 1980's 7.8 1990‐I 2.1 ‐1.8.4 percent thereafter in coming years.0% • Poverty and backwardness 10.9 0.9 4.5 7.9 4.3% • Revenue collection / generation 5. 9 19.6 70.8 735. Similarly Federal Government and Provincial governments would develop and enforce mechanism for maintaining fiscal discipline at the Federal and Provincial levels through legislative and administrative measures.8 65.pk) .8 Straight Transfer 40.4 33.1 Total Transfer to Province 297.04 0.5 16. Table 4.74% Sindh 24.1 percent instead of 5.01% 51. Baluchistan will receive 9.3 477.3 Loan Repayment 28.1 19. as grants‐in‐aid of the revenues of the province of Sindh an amount equivalent to 0. There shall be charged upon the Federal Consolidated Fund each year. 6. increasing the pool for distribution by 4%.8 2.09 510. 2014‐15.9 2006‐07 320. 12.6 56.3 697.3 29.7 18 40.8 0.8 63. Each Province shall be paid in each financial year as a share in the net proceeds to be worked out based on average rate per MMBTU of the respective province.62% Punjab 53. 7.Public Finances Existing 7th NFC Award Balochistan 7.5 17.3 40.6 Interest Payment 24.1 439.88% 14.6 2005‐06 244. The share of the Federal Government in the net proceeds of divisible pool shall be 44 percent during the financial year 2010‐11 and 42. Finance Division.6 52.3 26.1 percent and will receive total Rs.94% 24. In addition.accountancy.9 Source: Budget in Brief: 2008‐09 61 published by Accountancy (www.8 626.4 85. In vertical distribution Federal government has allowed an increase in the share of the provinces with 56 percent for first year and 57.9 1.com.17% 9.2 381. the Federal government agreed to a reduction of collection charges from 5% to 1%.1 0 0.66 % of the provincial share in the net proceeds of divisible pool as a compensation for the losses on account of abolition of octroi and zilla tax (OZT).5 Agriculture Sector Loan‐II 1.5 Special Grants/ Subventions 35.8: Transfers to Provinces (NET) 2004‐05 Divisible Pool 204. 4.3 16.5 percent for the remaining years.4 569.1 26. 5.6 14.9 82.55% Total 100. 10.5 2.02 0.4 465.6 0.4 Japanese Grant 0.00% 100% Source: Provincial Finance Wing. 9. Each province shall be paid in each financial year as a share in the net proceeds of the total royalties on crude oil an amount which bears to the total net proceeds the same proportion as the production of crude oil in the province in that year bears to the total production of crude oil.9 18.7 Transfer to Province(Net) 244.7 348.5 (Rs. 83 billion for the first year.5 percent from the financial year 2011‐12 onwards.6 587. 8.e. 11. One percent of the net proceeds of divisible pool taxes shall be assigned to government of Khyber PakhtunKhwa to meet the expenses on war on terror.1 385.2 21. Any shortfall in this amount shall be made up by the Federal Government from its own resources. It has also been recommended in NFC award that the Federal government and Provincial governments should streamline their tax collection system to increase their revenues in order to achieve 15 percent tax to GDP ratio by the terminal year i. Billion) 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10(B) 391.3 Project Aid 15.4 21 20.09% Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 14.8 25. The main objective is to increase the tax to GDP ratio to above 14 percent of GDP by 2013/14 (see Box). an increase of 18. large number of services.8 percent over the revised estimates 2008‐09. subject to approval of national and provincial assemblies. 697. 116 billion in the revised estimates 2008‐09 mainly due to lower tax collection by FBR during the year. efficiency and ready comprehensibility in many developed countries. there is no provision for input tax credit. In sales tax. Reform agenda A low – and declining ‐ tax‐to‐GDP ratio.9 billion is budget estimates 2009‐10 i. income tax and excise tax. Thus the harmonization of tax administration will improve efficiency and help increase the tax‐to‐GDP ratio in the medium term. to broaden the tax base and to correct the structural shortcomings in Pakistan’s tax system and particularly to ensure horizontal equity in the taxation system. thus increasing the incentive for evasion which can be harmful for economic growth. in which a sum of money is levied at a particular stage in the sale of a product or service. This will serve as a single entity within the FBR by merging the tasks of all domestic taxes.pk) . FBR is undergoing a major step in tax administration reform.com. However. is amongst Pakistan’s biggest structural weaknesses. which include: a) A narrow tax base b) Agriculture. A full VAT with minimal exemptions. these are placed at Rs. namely the sales tax. Medium Term Budgetary Framework (MTBF) MTBF is a system for making the budget process more strategic and responsive to the priorities of the 62 published by Accountancy (www. The transfers to provinces on net basis registered a decline of Rs. The VAT deals with many problems quite efficiently. Several possible reasons have been advanced for the low tax to GDP ratio in Pakistan. consequently the end consumer has to pay tax on an input that has already been taxed previously. Similarly. Considerable work has been completed for the planned introduction of the VAT by July 1. In VAT system there is no incidence of cascading due to the fact that it is imposed on value addition at every single stage. with the establishment of the Inland Revenue Service (IRS).accountancy. Box‐2: Value Added Tax (VAT) Value Added Tax (VAT) is a special type of indirect tax. also known as a goods and services tax (GST) in India. the developing nations also motivated to adopt VAT during eighties and nineties.Economic Survey 2009‐10 An account of transfer to provinces is given in Table 4. a broad based Value Added Tax (VAT) is sought to be implemented in the country. Due to its revenue generating capacity.e.8. to be implemented by the FBR will include agreement with provinces concerning the treatment of services. capital gains is not included in tax net c) Low tax compliance d) Wide spread exemptions e) Large undocumented informal sector f) Weak audit and enforcement A number of measures have been planned to redress this shortcoming. 2010. This is known as cascading which leads to an increase in consumer tax and price level. that are often associated with a conventional sales tax system. 4. 1 Guidelines for preparing Medium term Budget (2010-2013). including the information on outputs. MTBF procedures for budget preparation require a further round of modifications in order to derive the full benefits of this approach. To implement the MTBF.Public Finances government.pk) . Major modification to the MTBF budget preparation implemented with effect from 2009‐10 include the following: • Introduction of budget ceilings for all federal ministries. thus to ensure the efficiency and cost effectiveness of the use of public sector resources. To increase the predictability of the budgeting process. This new budgeting system will help planners and managers to think through logic of their interventions and how they relate to the ministry’s overall objectives. • First step towards result based budgeting • Clear identification of the cost of services (outputs) to be delivered. 2. Finance Division. for the year immediately ahead to be appropriated. These modifications are based on an analysis of the experience to date with the implementation of the MTBF with the aim of strengthening the contribution of the MTBF to the wider objective of modernization of the budgetary process. 63 published by Accountancy (www. the set of innovations have been introduced into the budgeting procedures followed in the line ministries. The preparation of the overall medium term budget estimates in a document which set out the higher level objectives of the ministry and the purposes for which funding is required. the medium term budgets will be prepared on a three year basis i. • Preparation of ‘Medium Term Budget estimates for Service Delivery’ (GREEN BOOK).. important modifications to the MTBF budget preparation have already been introduced. The main objective of MTBF is to strengthen the fiscal discipline along with the alignment of budgetary allocation and expenditures with the policies and priorities of the government and to strengthen the process of budgeting and budget resource management within the ministries . 3. as it will introduce a medium term (3 year) horizon to the budgetary process. These are as follows: 1. and for two outer years. The MTBF process also saw the development of a dedicated software application to capture the information prepared by ministries during the preparation of the MTBF budget estimates.accountancy. Modifications to the formats for budget preparation which required a shift towards a more planned approach.com. Budget Wing. MTBF is consistent with the country’s overall macroeconomic framework and legal obligation under Section‐5 and 6 of the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act 2005.e. However. Although.1 It will support and strengthen the delivery of public services by the federal government. this will continue in 2010‐11. • Strengthening the strategic process of budget preparation in each federal ministry. 737 iv. Interest 637. Other 245. Islamabad B. Federal Excise 116.146.400 iii..accountancy.E.TABLE 4.790 647.007.600 716.927 366.800 454.553 84.952 Source: Budget Wing.294 499.271 565. Finance Division.742 2.380.pk) .157.441 1.536.207 Non-Tax Revenue Gross Revenue Receipts ** B.130 Development Expenditure (PSDP) Total Expenditure** 308.104 iii.1 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OVERALL BUDGETARY POSITION (Rs Million) Fiscal Year/ 2008-09 Item 2009-10 (B.Budget Estimates @ : Includes Law and Order.913 ii. Economic Affairs 136.400 i. Grants 154.790 232. Customs 148.com.E) A.709 1.055 152.863 i.497 2. Sales Tax 452. EXPENDITURE Current Expenditure* 1.885 483. Defence 329.902 342.926 vi. REVENUE FBR Tax Revenue (1 +2) 1 Direct Taxes 2 Indirect Taxes 1.844.382 162.723. Social.000 440.739. Economic and Community Services * : Current expenditure includes earthquake related spendings ** : Includes other categories not shown here published by Accountancy (www.200 ii.000 1.301 406.002 1.731 814. 1 13.700 766.311 625.5 15.345 973.794 448.8 14.410 624.911 2. E.200 555.380 1.116.967 216.800 534.3 4.407 680.100 -86.100 2.380.5 10.700 3.1 Overall Deficit Incl.599 118.155.401.600 113.147 1.900 225.050 60.900 97.497 1.8 4.282 6.650 1.710 240.495.434 246.763 0 -216.400 803.200 791.0 14.300 227.3 4.000 28.700 789.873 1.586 46.981 864.668 15.2 3.497 70.890 466.4 13.858 104.4 3.7 4.8 10.100 70.150 230.9 18.000 -130.260.200 84.442 83.8 22.000 67.387 165.641 6.873 545.1 -17.000 583.8 4.556 8.051 331.2 18.800 673.476 0 -722.308 2.1 3.408 1.227 889.697 77.000 -5.600 3.200 148.673 10.7 11.035 -124.000 -32.200 -180.169 777.2 13.658 -9.210 900.3 3.7 27.3 31. Billion 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 720.300 8.3 10.905 101.781 1.1 10.034.600 119.com.700 794.158.500 -55.7 Tax Revenue 11.9 4.604 218.215 433.545 -680.600 47.050.1 26.684 370.900 36.6 14. Finance Division.499.730 82.000 158.9 19.5 51.700 599.000 741.600 180.6 15.1 16.789 2.866 36.000 25.2 7.300 1.300 47.700 34.799.000 139.E : Budget Estimate Source: Budget Wing.351 (Rs Million) % Change 2009-10/ 2008-09 16.1 (As Percent of GDP at Market Price)£ Total Revenue 14.900 57.TABLE 4.890 95.600 1.864 45.1 15.8 14.000 561.100 245.800 191.4 Development 2.7 10.E) 2.000 606.000 1.272 362.696 1.494 0 -777.7 3.132 451.618 390.2 19.531.600 25.243 12.896 -28.200 22.009.902 40.963 590.000 10.387 1.570 1.quake Exp.900 1.200 200.287 144.307 -325.000 130.000 557.464 1.500 664.052 722.8 Expenditure 18.041.5 14.7 2.439 2.accountancy.739 14.9 Non-Tax Revenue 3.014 842.600 365.3 13.015 437.4 5.000 956.000 161.697 480.800 165.600 992.510 -377.2 3.800 272.620 1.685 852.000 775.593.204.968 1.302 519.000 183.179 28.0 15.963 1.114 659.9 -13.2 SUMMARY OF PUBLIC FINANCE (CONSOLIDATED FEDERAL AND PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS) Fiscal Year/ Item Total Revenues (i+ii) Federal Provincial i) Tax Revenues Federal Provincial ii) Non-Tax Revenues Federal Provincial Total Expenditures (a+b+c) a) Current Federal Provincial b) Development (PSDP) c) Net Lending to PSE's d) Statistical Discrepancy Overall Deficit Financing (net) External (Net) Domestic (i+ii) i) Non-Bank ii) Bank iii) Privatization Proceeds Memorandum Item GDP (mp) in Rs.901 1.147 19.846 305.400 898.000 611.028 129.4 10.9 17.000 63.231 562.549 1.988 120.000 53.670.501 377.297.466 223.900 176.987 2.130 402.375.0 13.877.000 218.670 1.276.876 5.651 529.5 10.5 16.9 B.718 24.327 1.9 4.721.000 21.6 4.200 -22.523.501 147.6 Current 16.351 56.4 20.169 151.0 32.290 4.300 325.853.3 9.076.432 96.850.900 129.6 5.990.pk) .957 1.000 20.416.404 1.000 2.900 135.900 61.084 646.819 408.623 8.982 71.906 1.7 8.690 11.4 3.3 4.7 13.407 149. Islamabad £ : Due to change of base of GDP to 1999-2000 prior years are not comparable published by Accountancy (www. 3.4 7.2 3.500 2009-10 (B.215. 200 225.000 0.497 452.560 799.523.188 186.812 472.886 171.543 9.545 148.549 119.538 60.800 Provincial 1.300 362.872 44.408 183.155.864 370.710 36.497 20.600 28.274 80.168 387.594 116.0 7.976 164.6 6.5 5.730 1.902 1.727 59.297. Surcharges* 68.755 20.5 7.380.592 36.140 14.722 5.000 157.600 45.700 900.930 215.408 77.211 10.937 12.850.165 26.878 129.813 58.002 45.533 294.000 27.143 3.957 1.955 3.658 14.143 1.266. Finance Division.7 Provincial 47.700 889.000 624.230 61.700 240.026 86.600 160.014 1.937 579.178 126.497 21.914 439.4 Others II.631 10.893 4.3 Foreign Travel Tax* 4.301 1.100 22.3 CONSOLIDATED FEDERAL AND PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES (Rs Million) % change 2009-10/ 2008-09 Fiscal Year/ Item 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 (B.700 766.4 * : Revenues under these heads are exclusively Federal ** : Mainly includes Provincial Revenues B.147 337.290 0 -100.000 583.823 58.0 I.835 90. Tax Revenues (A+B) 555.600 309.000 13.0 7.382 162.7 3.451 2.200 132.3 51.050 3.000 182.7 -100.437 47.accountancy.604 24. Other Taxes ** 20.9 Federal Provincial 16.885 561.2 Petroleum 46.114 84.901 2.873 165.715 2.107 7.387 15.268 11.611 10.E) Total Revenue (I+II) 720.600 743.639 391.000 334.789 95.147 3.271 565.534 0 -100.546 35.com.346 844.681 356 0 0 7. Taxes on International Trade 68.358 16.6 25.011 112.381 26.607 235.593.749 7.600 28.8 Federal 44.200 1.670 55.888 20.517 152.000 659.584 1.708 14. Direct Taxes (1+2) 1 Federal 2 Provincial B.100 57.3 6. Excise Duty 45.pk) .940 117.604 272.937 113.027.691 9.272 448.054 4.TABLE 4.976 67.400 A.600 842.600 1.891 23.055 152.499.243 138.573 10.819 40.312.563 440.696 60.5 151.800 793.028 1.900 992.560 -1.473 224.E : Budget Estimate Source: Budget Wing.702 2.051 36.696 1.800 27.794 46.719 4.050.910 6.900 408.387 Federal 673.575 83.553 552.5 21. Indirect Taxes (3+4+5+6+7) 31.084 70.800 64.227 1. Sales Tax* 195.6 6.138 220.751 2.685 454.897 21.5 139.123 11.900 852.0 7.2 Motor Vehicle Taxes 3.866 1. Islamabad published by Accountancy (www.348 88.435 1.015 29.271 565.975 7.0 10.800 611.404 47.769 50.696 1.593 3.770 16.800 36.294 499.924 20.1 Gas 21.885 466.4 5.200 9.381 1.721.990.300 34. Non-Tax Revenues Federal Provincial 5.400 82.000 34.410 803.787 0 0 397.026 141.009.600 218.702 74.1 Stamp Duties 6.497 176.200 50.228 385.350 440.987 83.698 454.685 1.4 534.470 112.600 1.891 2.400 22.500 29.200 150.215.800 28.227 11.046 659.329 10.000 71.5 165.076.925 40.471 3.462 0 4. 763 29.9 34.938 2.994 57.115 437.459 0 220.9 40.790 24.7 As % of Total Expenditure 77.7 10.120 368.0 100.2 12.E : Budget Estimate * : Also includes Law & Order.017 175.893 18.658 451.000 557.8 51.310 246.8 25.6 10.733 91.0 11.6 11.100 973.0 19.4 60.900 1.420 120.981 1.574 656.1 81.685 225.5 -37.261 26.902 18.6 18.911 1.200 5.3 25.799.4 22.2 24.1 58.5 22.700 227.3 26.352 8.000 342.2 4.800 191.119 368.819 161.200 524.439 864.6 26.119 19.2 -1.9 1.2 21.600 175.866 129.6 26.3 19.250 791.968 2.2 13.0 100.4 73.5 13.221 25.1 15.5 19.TABLE 4.877.920 62.035 -28.916 509.accountancy.0 100.1 17.024 56.8 41.700 599.5 21.2 13.9 18.2 95.2 8.0 100.200 -22.000 7.9 0.5 6.5 16.175 606.300 329.7 11.8 4.963 1.041.500 1.5 10.9 5.549 2.697 211.8 31.556 22.8 -28.6 19.1 13.029 16.3 18.523 179.2 13.5 22.724 155.9 21.5 -4.1 100.0 100.2 23.853.416.200 775. @ : Include Net Lending 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 (Rs million) 2009-10 (B.858 277.401.670.039 423.6 All Others 18.308 (Percent Growth over preceding period) 11.4 CONSOLIDATED FEDERAL AND PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES Fiscal Year/ Item Current Expenditure Federal Provincial Defence Interest Federal Provincial Current Subsidies Federal Provincial Gen.6 11. ** : Includes mainly Provincial Expenditures.6 19.258 130.200 789.4 81.196 237.6 6.494 6.8 21.873 14.797 489.260.1 General Administration 11.259 210.4 13.9 63.3 12.843 131.114 100.900 39.810 199.8 12.103 192.4 80.700 1.254 275.8 -24.pk) .100 433.500 5.485 220.963 590.000 8.147 2.8 -2.994 81.000 956.126 67.488 3.9 15.4 26.7 -2. Administration* Federal Provincial All Others** Development Expenditure Net Lending to PSEs Total Expenditure Memorandum Items: Current Expenditure Defense Interest Current Subsidies General Administration All Others Development Expenditure Total Expenditure 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 700.000 218.4 7.0 Source: Budget Wing.0 7.2 24.500 44.816 27.900 159.0 100.263 225.0 17.109 0 737.4 23.6 12.282 24.808 227. Economic and Community Services.412 274.114 50.9 19.0 -17.100 -9.9 62.400 103.8 -27.000 10.0 18.3 11.2 16.5 18.130 1.8 1.6 15.600 402.8 76.923 647.0 100.1 37.409 126.476 2. Social.9 12.9 3.015 1.3 Interest 33.375. Finance Division published by Accountancy (www.0 3.827 269.913 663.300 34.276.0 11.063 249.0 B.7 78.345 1.104 16.929 355.8 9.700 898.4 25.573 664.9 457.681 637.7 28.7 32.994 49.7 14.4 18.495.718 365.800 86.8 4.8 Development Expenditure@ 15.210 60.902 234.300 74.3 Current Subsidies 3.9 5.2 10.2 13.034.531.8 2.429 479.7 88.876 200.904 222.600 149.8 25.100 146.131 60.8 19.116.8 19.1 Defense 18.1 28.9 Total Expenditure 100.2 18.021 386.163 79.250 -200 826.com.469 66.010 407.1 6.2 -46.717 241.8 27.7 -9.9 23.673 101.023 75.E) 2.215 437.1 7.000 184.752 260.8 48.914 29.766 161.6 8.610 57.3 8.132 545.4 Current Expenditure 84.300 245.763 2.5 11.159 349.700 349.3 74.5 28.387 196.109 355.529 29.2 6.238 76.292 245.531 163.896 480.000 20. 700 C.469 11.444 39.8 6.7 2.802 B.7 4.8 0.335 41.797 489.790 473.615 68. Interest Payments 227.7 0.6 0.3 0.810 222.TABLE 4.816 196.6 0.662 224.021 386.accountancy.005 27.113 49.9 Interest on Foreign Debt 0.6 0.6 2.5 4.304 127.902 18.5 5.com.9 4.481 154.730 42.939 430. Repayment/Amortization of Foreign Debt A.236 880.6 6.3 Repayment/Amortization of Foreign Debt 1.556 22.8 0.7 1.4 2.061 45.1 Total Debt Servicing 5.2 4.663 292.574 656.517 Interest on Domestic Debt 160.119 368.681 637.994 26. Finance Division published by Accountancy (www.512 Interest on Foreign Debt 39.702 81.019 MEMORANDUM ITEMS (As Percent of GDP) Interest on Domestic Debt 3.3 5.6 3.6 0.126 24. Total Debt Servicing (A+B) 284.576 166.261 210.6 0.729 428.3 2.1 Federal 199.752 260.916 509.387 234.893 18.394 69.006 318.276 57.189 558.858 59.9 1.1 0.466 195.119 19.196 237.4 *July 2009-March 2010 Source: Budget Wing.2 2.2 4.415 456.319 A.817 170.pk) .114 349.5 DEBT SERVICING Fiscal Year / Item 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10* A.259 485.492 79.454 341.835 652.8 1.531 578.2 Provincial 56. 270.379 #REF! 1.7 30.8 17.4 42.859.3 30.590 647.597 873.6 * end‐March 2010 #REF! Source: Budget Wing.0 31.711 1.1 24.798.774.569 349.000 14.8 19.739.540 616.007 3.6 44.202 8.4 50.637.807 516.490.7 40.2 22.766 685.4 23.654 4.939 779.7 36.379 1.549 2.609 16.500 914.8 39.163 940.027.673.402 325.7 39.8 17.513 1.939 12.8 19.182 13.590 2.8 35.2 32.4 27.com.accountancy.2 Un‐funded Debt 39.370 1.894.452.243.782 7.4 41.644.009 526.640.655 1.411.737 20.7 28. Finance Division published by Accountancy (www.648 5.706 940.007 1.6 18.0 21.768 570.9 38.233 1.010 792.6 48.580 6.875.873 4.879 562.7 39.4 Total Debt as % of GDP (mp) 49.5 40.274.pk) .1 40.818 4.212 424.783 712.000 3.610.903.177.1 37.8 Un‐funded Debt 573.107.0 30.020.5 30.3 26.998 1.937 1.668.209.299.428 737.776 557.137 909.9 35.TABLE 4.6 INTERNAL DEBT OUTSTANDING (AT END OF PERIOD) (Rs million) Fiscal Year/ Type of Debt 1998‐99 1999‐00 2000‐01 2001‐02 2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 %Change 2009‐10/ 2008‐09 2009‐10* Permanent Debt 317.3 Total 2.690 11.0 49.3 51.205 2.336.499.248 881.000 (Percent Share in Total Debt) Memorandum Items: Permanent Debt 21.938.9 31.1 32.452.1 1.0 45.515 10.623.945 671.2 42.780 4.536 2.0 31.4 Floating Debt 38.943 778.9 33.268 542.9 24.179 514.6 Floating Debt 561.767 468.487 2. x However. though unevenly across regions. As of third week of April.8%. Part of the subdued increase is accounted for by a sharp rise in provisioning by banks for non‐performing loans.pk) . it remains fragile. including Pakistan and India. the return of inflation in some cases. On the other.5 Monetary Sector The past two years have witnessed economic developments unprecedented in scale and gravity. the rise in private sector credit demand is concentrated in two sectors: textiles and energy. While growth has returned in many economies. means that policymakers across a broad spectrum of countries and regions are treading a thin line. The danger of a high headline rate of inflation is that if it displays persistence. 5. as against 1. especially in developing countries. and remains fragile.accountancy. leading to grave consequences for the poor and vulnerable. and inflationary expectations in others. On the one hand. On the other hand. The initial response of most governments was to fight off recession with large fiscal stimuli and monetary easing and other untested measures with regard to liquidity injections to ensure money and credit markets did not ”seize up”. utilisation of bank credit by the private sector had increased to 4. it could influence expectation‐forming more than other measures such as core inflation. which the central bank relies on to gauge the appropriateness of monetary policy. which is deducted from gross lending to arrive at the reported net figure of borrowing. Recent Monetary and Credit Developments Developments in the monetary sector during July to April FY10 can be summed up as follows: x A net retirement of bank credit by the private sector occurred in the first few months of the fiscal year. the Food and Agricultural Organisation’s (FAO) Food Price Index was up over 20 percent earlier in 2010. policymakers are grappling with a similar dilemma. With many countries finally appearing to pull back from the worst of the crisis. the global economy was buffeted by the most severe recession since the Great Depression. world food and energy prices skyrocketed. While global commodity prices have eased considerably from their recent lifetime peaks. followed by a fairly strong uptick in subsequent months.6% in the corresponding period of 2008‐09.com. This backdrop presents a policy dilemma. This fragility is evident from ongoing developments in the Euro‐zone with respect to the Greek debt crisis. while food inflation has traversed historical levels in many countries. the impact of price developments in global commodity markets since 2006 appears to have worked its way into inflationary pressure.2. The trend in the former is in line with improving external demand for yarn. The global gauge for food price inflation. inflation remains elevated and has displayed considerable persistence. while in the 65 published by Accountancy (www. with large ramifications for the conduct of public policy. The growth recovery in the economy witnessed in 2009‐10 is still relatively weak. In Pakistan’s case. While exit policies may appear premature under such circumstances. The fear of deflation in many major economies lent a degree of congruence to fiscal and monetary policy. they remain elevated. Economic Survey 2009‐10 case of the latter.4 billion during July‐April 2010.7 Q1 FY 10 Jul-April10 186 131 134. as well as recourse to using a portion of IMF disbursements (up to 40% each of three tranches) as bridge financing.7 73 90. rising sharply from October 2009. rice. This has occurred mainly due to a pernicious combination of rising fiscal spending. and lower availability of external financing. public sector corporations or private sector for the procurement of commodities such as cotton. 5.2‐a. wheat. 239.2‐b Commodity Finance Commodity finance refers to advances provided to government.5 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 314 278 Fig‐5.accountancy.4 199 195.com. 286.5 billion during the same period last year. 286.2: Commodity Finance Commodity Finance Rs Billions 400 300 200 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(April23) Source: State Bank of Pakistan 66 published by Accountancy (www. In Pakistan. the circular debt issue has accounted for a large increase in borrowing requirements for the affected companies. with the borrowing guaranteed by the government. such as PASSCO and TCP. The shortfall on this count overshadowed higher inflows from non‐bank sources. sugar. fertilizer etc.pk) . Fig‐5. against Rs.2 272 316 Total borrowings From SBP From Scheduled banks -36 105. These entities borrow commercially to finance their procurement operations. 5.3 239.1: Government Budgetary Borrowings Jul-20Dec 09 Jul-April 09 FY-09 Source: State Bank of Pakistan Government budgetary borrowing from the banking system during year to date FY10 has remained higher compared to the corresponding period of FY09. Government Bank Borrowing The net bank credit availed by the government for budgetary support as well as financing its commodity operations amounted to Rs. the government’s commodity operations are carried through state owned entities. CPI inflation reached a recent trough of 8.2 billion in June last year mainly because of record wheat procurement of 9. on account of a number of adverse factors. While the stock of wheat financing declined to Rs. 5. The increase in NFA is mainly contributed to by budgetary support of $745 million (approx.0 Jul‐May FY08 FY08 Jul‐Dec FY09 FY 09 Jul‐Dec FY10 Jul‐April FY10 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 5.8 billion during the same period of FY09.2 billion in the corresponding period last year. 236. to compound the problem.3: Net Foreign Assets 100. and partly due to subdued global price changes in commodities.0 ‐350. 276.accountancy.0 ‐300.2 million tons by different federal and provincial departments and agencies.Monetary Sector The financing for commodity operations peaked at Rs. the fact that the procurement price of domestic wheat has risen substantially higher than the international price. 49. However.0 ‐400. 336. Inflation After declining sharply from early calendar 2009.1 billion during July‐April 2010 compared to net increase of Rs. inflation in the economy has picked up sharply.0 ‐50. 200.2‐d. since October.8 billion.0 ‐100.com.6 billion by end February from its peak of Rs. Rs.0 ‐250. and the sharp unexpected rise in inflows under portfolio investment. A combination of unprecedented scale of the procurement and the substantial increase in the domestic wheat support price has led to a sharp spike in the outstanding stock under this head. While financing for commodity operations is usually self‐liquidating. 62 billion) from the IMF.0 ‐200.8 billion.0 50. 47.pk) . Other factors that have contributed are the persistent increase in worker remittances. has meant that government agencies have been able to retire only a portion of the outstanding loans availed for commodity operations. Fig‐5. This occurred partly due to a favourable base effect. Still the stock of wheat finance is higher than the average of the past three year’s end February level of Rs.7 billion after registering a significant decline of Rs.9% year on year in October 2009. 53. Adjustments in administered prices of electricity 67 published by Accountancy (www. Sharply lower outflows on account of import payments have provided major support to the foreign currency reserves position.2‐c Net Foreign Assets (NFA) The NFA of the banking system during July‐April FY10 has increased by Rs.0 ‐150. Stock of commodity finance fell by 56.0 0. 5 Source: SBP The policy discount rate and the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Requirement (SLR) were raised throughout calendar 2008.e. iii).5 10 10. In real terms. during the peak of the balance of payments crisis .4: Inflation Trends General(CPI) Core Inflation 30 Percents 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics 5. 68 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy. the current stance of monetary policy would appear to be “neutral”. Table 5. however.com.5 12 13 15 14 13 12. SBP reversed course of its monetary policy from end‐2007 onwards. in response to a gradual easing of both headline as well as core inflation.5%. Establishment of a floor of 5 percent on the rate of return on profit and loss sharing and saving accounts.Economic Survey 2009‐10 tariffs.1: SBP Discount Rate w. ii). An increase of 150 bps in discount rate to 12 percent.f 22‐Jul‐06 1‐Aug‐07 2‐Feb‐08 23‐May‐08 30‐Jul‐08 13‐Nov‐08 21‐Apr‐09 17‐Aug‐09 25‐Nov‐09 till date Policy rate 9. gas. the stance was modified very incrementally (see Table 5. and the containment of aggregate demand pressures in the economy. in conjunction with the large increase in the support price of wheat have been the main drivers of the refuelling of inflation in the economy since late last year. with year‐on‐year CPI inflation at over 13%. After peaking at 15% in November 2008. the central bank has eased the policy discount rate in steps to the current 12. The measures announced by SBP in May 2008 included i).3 Monetary policy stance In response to several years of excessive money supply growth and fiscal profligacy. SBP began a rather more aggressive tightening phase from May 2008. Introduction of a margin requirement for the opening of letter of credit for imports (excluding food and oil) of 35 percent and. domestic petroleum products. but in the face of persistent excessive demand pressures in the economy. An increase of 100 bps in CRR and SLR to 9 percent and 19 percent respectively for banking institutions. rather than “tight”. Initially. Fig‐5.1). iv).pk) . However.5 Net Domestic Assets(NDA) 22.6 (Percent) Jul‐23April* 2009‐10 11.1 15.2 15.6 billion during July‐April 2009.9 billion during Jul‐April 2010 compared to Rs. on the other.5 percent during July‐April 2010 compared to 1.6 Sector Bank Credit to Private Sector 34.Monetary Sector Fig‐5. means that the central bank is also facing a policy dilemma in determining the course. 233. it has not only changed the composition of M2 growth.9 ‐22. NFA of the SBP increased by Rs.1 Net Foreign Assets (NFA) 9. in conjunction with rationalization of fiscal subsidies.6 1.3 Developments in Monetary Indicators The YoY growth in broad money (M2) increased sharply by 5.5 9. on the one hand.2: Monetary Indicators (Growth Rates) Indicators FY 05 FY 06 Net Bank Credit to Government 13.7 14.2 11.6 5. but the NFA of the banking system has also been increased sharply. and SBP’s concerns about rising inflationary pressures due to higher oil prices and electricity tariff adjustments. 2010. pace and magnitude of any changes to its stance. timing.5 Source: State Bank of Pakistan IMF has increased the SDR quota allocation for all of its member countries.pk) .9 17. The contraction in NDA was mainly due to the accounting adjustment of special SDR allocation by 69 published by Accountancy (www.3 14.7 billion. 49.9 11. 5.6 4.3 16.2 38.8 7. while Net domestic assets (NDA) were increased to Rs.5: Real Interest rate 5 4 3 2 1 0 ‐1 ‐2 Jul‐09 Aug‐09 Sep‐09 Oct‐09 Nov‐09 Dec‐09 Jan‐10 Feb‐10 Mar‐10 Source: State Bank of Pakistan Nonetheless. Consequently. Similarly.5 percent during the same period last year.5 Money Supply(M2) 19. This rise is mainly from YoY increase in Net foreign assets (NFA) of the banking sector as growth in net domestic assets (NDA) of the banking system slowed to 5.2 16.6 ‐32.1 *Pertains to 23 April for FY10 and 25 April for FY09 FY 07 FY08 FY09 Jul‐25April* 2008‐09 11.3 1.accountancy. 304.1 percent YoY basis by April.com.4 23.5 9.7 19.3 0. have contributed to a large measure of macroeconomic stability. the sharp acceleration in M2 growth is also explained by an uptrend in seasonal credit demand from the private sector. an appropriate monetary policy stance since 2008.4 5. Table 5. a nascent revival in economic activity.5 30.7 18.1 63 34.1 ‐35. Net Domestic Assets Net domestic assets of the banking system registered a decline by 5. By end September 2009. However.pk) . FY10 has also witnessed a significant increase in currency in circulation.5‐a.7 billion to the public sector enterprise (PSEs). Building upon the discussion in Section 5. 1010. Indeed the government’s increased resource to SBP borrowing was made possible due to the available room for financing resulting from disciplined borrowing in the first quarter. 304. NDA had a negative contribution to M2 growth. and decline in government borrowings worth Rs. a few POL related PSEs have availed the cushion for fresh lending after settlement of part of their outstanding bank credit with the issuance of PPTFCs and borrowing requirement from a public sector steel mill to finance its unfunded LC imports of raw material.2 billion in the same period last year. during Q1‐FY10. low budgetary borrowing and slower credit off‐ take under commodity finance had restricted the expansion in NDA during July‐April 10. mainly due to a strong rise in private sector credit and increases recourse of the government to borrow from the banking system. NDA experienced a sharp increase.6 percent during the same period last year. bank started to lock into shorter tenor government papers.2‐b some of the other monetary aggregates will be discussed here. Moreover. Credit to PSEs increased to just Rs 76.6 billion at end September 08. 56. 40. government borrowings from the central bank had exceeded its quarterly limits by the end of third week of December 2009. There was an increase of Rs.accountancy. Consequently the stock of MRTBs with SBP declined to Rs. 76. 5. 24 billion 70 published by Accountancy (www. This increase caused by high credit demand from a power holding company in September 2009. Main reason was that the government largely adhered to its pre‐auction targets that were set lower for Q2‐FY10 in anticipation of revenue receipts such as coalition support funds. also reflects high demand from money market funds. The credit of Rs. borrowings from the commercial banks fell October onwards.com.5 billion worth of T‐bills in the same month.1 billion for commodity operations has contributed Rs 233. fragile demand for private sector credit.1 percent during July‐April 2010 compared to 7. While the evidence suggest that increased biding by commercial banks. However thereafter. Credit to Private Sector (net) Due to the slightly improved industrial and business activity. 5.6 billion during the same period last year. government retired its debt with SBP by using the proceeds from the transfer of SBP profits to government accounts and borrowing from commercial banks by issuing Rs. 142.5 Analysis of Monetary Aggregates Within the banking sector.8 billion by the end of September 2009 compared to Rs 1256. Consequently reliance on SBP borrowing increased during October‐April 2010. The slow pace in NDA of the banking system was due to the contraction in domestic demand. particularly for three month papers.9 billion in NDA during July‐April FY10 compared to an increase of Rs. On quarterly basis.7billion during July‐April FY10 against an increase of Rs. banks cautiously restarted lending to the private sector following an easing in classification of bad loans. Moreover. 5.5‐b.Economic Survey 2009‐10 the IMF in August 2009. in the absence of sufficient commercial bank borrowings. This behaviour possibly reflects market anticipation for an increase in interest rate in the wake of renewed inflationary pressures and liquidity constraints. in the last few T‐bill auctions. 7 6.6 ‐2 ‐4.5 ‐13.7 ‐38.Investment in Securities and Shares Jul‐March FY09 58.8 20 30.4 ‐10.9 ‐9.4 percent in March 2009.8 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 71 published by Accountancy (www.8 2.5 6.Other Private Business II.5 8.Mining And Quarrying C. rice and sugarcane).5 ‐1.0 10.8 26.2 0. visible for twelve consecutive months.4 2.4 22.3: Private sector credit (Flows) Sectors Overall Credit (I to V) I. private sector credit off‐take is not growing fast because of high interest rates.0 ‐3. Table 5.Construction F.storage and communications H.7 ‐6.3 6.4 percent in March 2010 as compared to 14. Agriculture B.8 6.3 7. Fig 5.9 ‐3.3 6.accountancy.9 5.8 0. 46.1 9.7 95 32.8 ‐15 6.com.3 100.0 Source: State Bank of Pakistan Despite the recovery in some macroeconomic indicators. thus it is still high.3 FY10 141 147.Loans to Private Sector business A.7 0.Commerce and Trade G.2 11.9 ‐9.Personal IV.5 7. 138.Services I.8 ‐35.6 ‐2.Electricity.5 2.5 1.2 ‐8.6 ‐2.pk) .9 46.0 40.6 Growth of Private Sector FY 10 FY 09 FY 08 FY 07 FY 06 FY 05 FY 04 0.gas and water E.0 30.0 20.6 6.2 ‐6.8 ‐3 ‐1. Credit to private sector grew by Rs. average lending rate on entire stock on bank loans stood at 13.Trust funds and NPOs III.Transport.3 ‐45. However.4 ‐2.4 4 ‐7.9 (Rs.5 12.Others V.9 billion during the same period last year.Monetary Sector from November 30th to the end of the December 2009 as credit retirement on net basis ceased after mid November. reversed from October 2009 onwards representing recovery in aggregate demand in the economy as well as increase in private sector participation in commodity finance (particularly for cotton.4 ‐1.6 9.6 23. The trend decline in private sector credit.9 billion during July‐April 2010 compared to Rs. Billions) Growth (Percents) FY09 FY10 2.3 4.8 ‐7.Manufacturing Textiles D.2 5.4 1.4 88. 143 4. Total Commercial Banks (A+B) A.2 ‐24 0.6 1.7 0. 5.5 151.014 5.5‐b (i). purchase of cars etc 3. billion) Jul‐March Consumer Financing FY 09 ‐3. This was compounded by banks’ cautious behaviour about granting loans in view of deteriorating credit quality and higher insolvency of borrowers.C.6 ‐6. Demand Deposit.938 6. Monetary Assets The components of monetary assets (M2) include: Currency in circulation.898 4.2 ‐0.364 5.124.219 *July‐25April 2008‐09 1.4: Targets and Actual Disbursement of Agriculture Loans Actual Disbursement (Rs Billions) July‐March FY 09 FY 10 102. counterpart) and Resident’s foreign currency. Time Deposit.5 28.5 ‐9.122.702.629. Currency in Circulation Deposit of which: B. Table 5.RFCDs of which RFCDs Monetary Assets Stock (M2) A+B+C End June 2008 2009 982. The concern on individuals’ ability to repay loans was particularly apparent in mortgage loans during FY10.689.House Building 2.430 4.e.Consumer Loans The consumer loans continued their downward slide with increasing NPLs as banks avoiding the risks associated with these facilities.9 52. Table 5.662 3.6: Monetary Aggregates Items A.557 263.5 3.Total Demand &Time Deposits incl.980. the rate of interest on these loans remain high.Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited 2.P.5 45.Credit cards 4.6 48.832 72 published by Accountancy (www.152.137.3 ‐19.8 percent in FY09.6.420.5: Consumer Financing (Rs.433 2.325 1.P.173 4.Consumer Durables 5. Major Commercial Banks B Private Domestic Banks II.4 49 3.com.Total Specialized Banks(1+2) 1.384 280.717 330. While inflationary pressures and low economic activity restrained the purchasing power of the consumers.8 166.2 ‐19. however it has registered a marginal increase against the decline of 6.Personal Loans 6.261 3.4 Source: State Bank of Pakistan The consumer credit contracted by 6.821 3.3 ‐53.1 ‐6.98 4.8 ‐0.B Grand Total (I+II) 5.216 4.pk) .Transport i.289.756.2 28.684 (Rs million) July‐23April 2009‐10 1. Other Deposits with SBP C.9 113.2 percent in FY10.785.4 85. Other Deposits (Excluding IMF A/C.8 74.3 ‐40.Others Total FY 10 ‐5.accountancy.3 Source: SBP Name Of Banks I.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 5. Considering M2 as a proxy for the size of the financial sector.1 76.pk) .1 22. currency in circulation decreased to Rs.7 billion as compared to Rs. a rising M2/GDP ratio indicates that in nominal terms the financial assets are growing faster than the non‐financial assets. the currency in circulation (CIC) as percent of the money supply (M2) has shown a very small increase and remained at 23.Monetary Sector Table 5. 73. Currency in Circulation During July‐April 2010. FY 10 has witnessed an expansion in broad money.9 percent to 47 percent in 2006‐07.4 0.6 0.5 Source:SBP 5.9 23. 49. Similarly Resident Foreign Currency deposits (RFCDs) has increased by Rs. as it increased by 5.com.5 percent during the same period last year.accountancy.6: Monetary Aggregates End June 2008 2009 Items Memorandum Items Currency/Money Ratio 20. The M2‐to‐GDP ratio reflects the degree of financial development in the economy. However. 140.5 percent against an increase of 1. 144. 15 billions during the same period last year.9 Other Deposits/Money ratio 0.1 6. Fig 5. 5.7: Currency in Circulation % M2 & GDP Currency to GDP 25 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (April) Source: State Bank of Pakistan 73 published by Accountancy (www.1 77.6‐a. The increase in money supply shared by both currency in circulation and deposit money.7 shows the trends in CIC as percentage of M2 and as a percentage of GDP.4 billion during the same period last year. Currency to M2 Fig‐5.1 Total Deposits/Money ratio 79 RFCD/Money ratio 5.1 76.1 billion in FY09.3 5.8 in FY10 against 23.7).7 billion as compared to Rs. As an important indicator of financial development M2/GDP has shown a rising trend since 1999‐00 and rose from 36.8 0.6 percent in FY09 (Table 5. 137. Deposits During July‐April 2010 demand and time deposits has increased by Rs.6 Income Velocity of Money 2.6‐b.3 billion against the decline of Rs.5 5.4 *pertains to 25th April for FY09 and 23rd April for FY10 *July‐25April 2008‐09 (Rs million) July‐23April 2009‐10 23. com.8 77.2 70. 74 published by Accountancy (www.6 72.1 73.9 45.3 37.7 39.6 44.5 74.4 76.6 percent to 58.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 5.1 45.3 58.2 percent in 2008‐09.2 37.3 percent during the same period last year.4 70 Source: State Bank of Pakistan During July‐April2010 M2/GDP ratio has increased to 37 percent as compared to 37.8 Weighted Average Interest Rate 6‐Months 12‐Months 15 12 9 6 3 Jun‐05 Aug‐05 Oct‐05 Dec‐05 Feb‐06 Apr‐06 Jun‐06 Aug‐06 Oct‐06 Dec‐06 Feb‐07 Apr‐07 Jun‐07 Aug‐07 Oct‐07 Dec‐07 Feb‐08 Apr‐08 Jun‐08 Aug‐08 Oct‐08 Dec‐08 Feb‐09 Apr‐09 Jun‐09 Aug‐09 Oct‐09 Dec‐09 Feb‐10 Apr‐10 0 Source: State Bank of Pakistan Weighted average lending rate (including zero mark‐up) on outstanding loans stood at 13. On the other hand another significant ratio DD+TD/M2 which represent monetary depth has shown decreasing trend since 1999‐00 by decreasing from 74. while weighted average deposit rate (including zero mark‐up) stood at 6.4 percent during the corresponding period of FY09.4 percent.9 36.6 75.1 44.0 46.0 DD+TD/M2 74.pk) . However during July‐April 2010 the ratio has increased by 70 percent as compared to an increase of 70.accountancy.7: Key Indicators of Pakistan's Financial Development Years 1999‐00 2000‐01 2001‐02 2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 July‐April 2008‐09 2009‐10 M2/GDP 36.0 43. Fig‐5.1 percent.2 76.7 40.4 75. 31 7.14 6.Monetary Sector Table 5.com.38 7.00 0.10 Spread 7.67 13. 5.00 6.00 2.10 6.9: Lending & Deposit Rates LR DR 16.35 7.07 6.1 percent in March 2010.00 10.8: Lending & Deposit Rates(W.A) % Jul‐09 Aug‐09 Sep‐09 Oct‐09 Nov‐09 Dec‐09 Jan‐10 Feb‐10 Mar‐10 LR 13.7 percent in March 2009 to 6.00 12.58 13.00 8.41 7.49 13. The system remains relatively small in relation to the economy.40 DR 6. still there is an enormous potential for growth.29 6.79 13. when compared with other emerging countries in Asia and around the world. However.00 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 5.00 4. particularly the deposit base and lending to private sector.7‐a Commercial Banks The asset base of the banking system and its key elements posted strong growth.25 6. This implies that many financing needs cannot be met and that much of the country’s economic potential remains unfulfilled.41 6.3 Source: State Bank Pakistan The lending rates have declined during last one year due to the continuation of the easy monetary policy stance.67 13. the asset mix of the banking system further shifted towards the investment as banks continued to invest heavily in government papers and bonds of Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs).pk) . 75 published by Accountancy (www.44 6.32 7.9). Percents Fig‐5. Banks have also cut the deposit rates from its peak level of 6. which consistently declined over first three quarters of CY09 showed the signs of recovery.26 6.accountancy.33 7.35 13.38 13. in order to avoid fall in their profits (Fig 5.73 13.7 Pakistan’s Financial Sector: 2010 Pakistan’s financial system has grown in recent years.25 7.00 14.35 7. 146 on 30 June 2009.276 2.787 662 91 54 432 125 14. On the asset side.5 12 11.7 (all banks) 2007 5.660 4.3 14.832 3. Hence the asset base of the banking system increased by 7 percent over the quarter.428 Deposits 2.9).172 1.5 13 12.522 as compared to 9.753 3.5 Percents 14 13.3 12.627 1.593 3. and reached at Rs 4787 billions. The public sector’s demand for bank credit remained high for meeting budgetary requirements and resolving the issues of PSEs inter‐corporate receivables (Table 5. Assets of all banks showed a net expansion of Rs 441.105 1.pk) .183 4.9: Highlights of the Banking System 2005 2006 Total Assets 3.353 Investments (net) 800 833 Advances (net) 1. Net investment increased by Rs 344.119 4.255 Equity 292 402 Profit Before Tax (PBT) 94 124 Profit After Tax (PAT) 63 84 Non‐Performing Loans 177 177 Non‐Performing Loans (net) 41 39 Basel‐I Capital Adequacy Ratio 11. the ratio remains high and in the satisfactory range.1 Source: State Bank of Pakistan Strong growth in assets of the banking system along with an increase in private sector lending and investment in PSEs bonds during the first six months of FY10 led to a slight contraction in baseline indicators of solvency.3 (Rs. Deposits of the system.248 4.854 544 107 73 218 30 12. Billions) Dec‐09 6.991 2. after remaining lacklustre during the first three quarters of CY09.10 Capital Adequacy Ratio (percent) Capital Adequacy Ratio (percent) 15 14. total number of branches of banks stood at 9. posted heatening growth.accountancy.080 3.7 billions during the first six months of FY10 mainly contributed by private banks amounting to Rs 1375. Fig 5.529 billions.4 billions in the first six months of FY10.Economic Survey 2009‐10 As on December 2009. Total deposits of all banks registered an increase of Rs 223.3 2008 5.483 641 70 42 422 128 Basel‐II 12.217 563 63 43 359 109 Sep‐09 6. However.5 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 76 published by Accountancy (www. Hence there is an increase of 376 branches in six months of 2009‐10.6 billions.688 3. Table 5.529 1. Moreover.com.9 billions during the first six months of FY10 and stood at Rs 6. lending portfolio also increased. risk to solvency from heightened credit risk lowered on the back of deceleration in loan’s infection rate and adequate provisioning by banks for loan losses. 0 366.2 billion in CY04.4 3. there were some slippages in asset quality and a slight decline in financing billion at the end of December 2009 and reflected a share of 5.11(b): Financing Products by Islamic banks %age Mode of Financing CY04 CY05 Murabaha 57. because banks made significant lending to private sector and invested heavily in bonds of PSEs.90% Source: Islamic Banking Department.4 1 CY08 CY09(Dec) 36. gradual standardization in shariah complaint principles have helped IBIs in achieving an increased degree of diversification in the utilized modes of financing.6 1.11 (b).5 Mudaraba Diminishing Muskaraka 5.4 201.9 83.9 1.3 percent in CY09.9 276.7 Musharaka 1 0. and this trend is shared both at local and global Islamic Financial Services Industry (IFSI).1 percent against 14.8 1.75% 2.9 6.10.pk) .2 percentage points and stood at 14. Despite the remarkable achievement during the past few years.8 14.6 1.a). Murabaha has still the highest share in financing products by contributing 42.1 1.4 1.2 0.7‐b Islamic Bank The growth momentum in Islamic banking has remained exceptionally strong worldwide.8 29.3 percent only in CY04. According to the table 5.com.9 percent in bank deposits as compared to 1.60% 1.1 14.98% 4.4 percentage points to 10. 5.9 30.3 percent in September 2009.4 Qarz/Qarz‐e‐hasna Others 9.3 205.5 119.6 percent in banking assets (Table 5.1 percent.8 12. Similarly.8 0.95% 2.7 0.2 2.accountancy.6 Source: State Bank of Pakistan The high growth momentum in IBIs observed in the last few years stabilized to a more sustainable pace in CY08. still the Islamic financial service industry (IFSI) needs careful nurturing and development to make a significant impact on the financial landscape of the country.1 1. Table 5.3 25.6 Istisna 0.5 42.6 billions from Rs 30.78% 5.2 1.8 Salam 0. the initial pattern of concentration in financing products of Islamic banks show that highest share is contributed by Murabaha. While the total deposits of Islamic banks reached to Rs 282. On the other hand 77 published by Accountancy (www.10(a): Islamic Banks Assets of the Islamic banks Deposits of the Islamic Banks Share in Banks Assets Share in Bank Deposits CY04 44.4 28.6 5.6 282.4 44.4 1.3 22.4 3 CY07 44.4 Ijara 24.6 0.4 29.79% 3. Table 5.62% 3. leading to relatively greater increase in risk weighted assets (RWA).8 1.3 49.1 CY06 48.2 2.1 30. Ijarah and diminishing Musharakah in CY09. during which the overall banking industry faced with a plethora of challenges emanating from its operating environment.7 147.90% 5.9 12.45% 1.Monetary Sector During the Q2‐FY10 capital adequacy ratio (CAR) dropped by 0.7 0.5 24 1. In terms of modes of financing. higher growth in asset base vis‐à‐vis capital base contracted the capital to total assets ratio by 0. thus it contributed to 5.26% (Rs Billion) CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09(Dec) 71.82% 4. State Bank of Pakistan Despite the robust growth in most of the indicators of Islamic banking during CY09. 326 ‐ ‐ 12.407 831.462 11.062 146.267.461.413.845 9.419.641 1.069 billion during the year 2009. to reach Rs. Gross Loan Portfolio (GLP) recorded a significant a 15% growth during the year of 2009. in the year 2009 the industry witnessed an overall positive trend.460 435.000 Average Loan Size (Rs) Total No.419. Similarly.7‐d Non‐Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) During FY09 the assets of NBFIs increased by 20.721 70.4 percent against the robust growth of 22.576 459.pk) .12: Microfinance Institutions Indicators 6‐Dec 7‐Dec 8‐Dec 9‐Dec MFBs MFIs Total MFBs MFIs Total MFBs MFIs Total MFBs MFIs Total Number of MFBs Number of Branches Total No.206 Source: Investment Wing.456.724 12.98 percent.667 14.024 7.754.457 284 1.159 1.76 billion from Rs.000 12.258 2.259 8.907.000 21. of Borrowers Gross loan portfolio (Rs.13). The borrowings by MFBs have declined to Rs.952. 78 published by Accountancy (www. 5. with a healthy growth in the deposits indicator that grew by 72% on YoY basis.443 326. is small as is the proportion of its deposits in the total deposits of the financial sector at 0.190. in respect of growth in all of its major indicators. Given the tight liquidity situation in the market.044 1.099.822.891 1.293.962 835.123.099. Table 5.7‐c Microfinance in Pakistan Microfinance is an important market‐oriented strategy of the financial sector to broaden the financial access and support the objective of economic and social development. Finance Division As a result of endeavours of the past few years.847. The number of operative entities in FY08 was 237 (subsequently decreasing to 233 in FY09) in comparison with 209 in FY07. Pakistan is amongst the few countries globally that have national strategy which identifies drivers and challenges to achieve both targets along with an implementation plan drawn along side with industry stakeholders to monitor progress against the national strategy. A mix of vibrant and mature MFBs primarily contributed to the overall deposit growth of the sector.971 ‐ ‐ 10.775 1. The size of total assets of the sector relative to GDP at 5 percent.004. In '000) 8.267 7.82 million borrowers.983 6.accountancy.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Ijarah and Musharakah have sizeable shares with a share of 30.940 ‐ ‐ 10.282 70.3 percent in FY07.498 508.381 4. 5.001 1. 5.206 11.642 ‐ ‐ 9.102 271 1.235 146. microfinance in Pakistan has come a long way from a nascent stage to an industry.626 254.389 4.045 2. In '000) 6 21 27 6 24 30 7 20 27 8 21 29 145 847 992 232 870 1.4 percent.891 1.656 4.381 4.238 1.3 billion (Table 5.907 254.115.723. diminishing Musharakah is currently the second most utilized mode of financing.749. albeit mild.131 459. It is encouraging that the MFBs have made progress on a number of fronts during the year. 478.667 13. 4. which is now well‐poised to grow.462 9.186 1.com.182 542.826.6 percent.841 9.822. it is now imperative for MFBs to develop their internal deposit base. and total financial sector asses at 7. With current outreach of 1.732.841 10.115.000 18. the sector saw phenomenal growth of almost 43% in years 2007 and 2008.845 11.258 2. of Depositors Deposits (Rs.879 703.024 7.719. 987 1.017 29. the insurance industry showed its resilience in that it was able to absorb a sudden and unexpected shock of meeting insurance claims of more than Rs 6.13 Asset Composition of the Financial Sector FY02 FY03 FY04 Investment Banks 27.0 billion arising from the riots caused by the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto on 27th December.527 23.729 78.5 percent during FY08.3 percent in FY07.834 FY07 41. during that time.094 57.7 percent.accountancy.4 22.527 1.131 4.4 Source: Financial Stability Department.3 6.456 15.718 225.562 136.999 1.7‐e.811 18.001 37.234 313. turmoil in global financial markets and dislocation of the domestic equity market along with the deteriorating security situation.700 84660 121.752 Housing Finance 22.806 Discount Houses 1. financing raised through epoits/CoDa/CoIs declined ever more drastically by 91.087 56.3 percent. Fig 5.293 565.504 FY06 54.341 Venture Capital 272 854 1.927 63.702 17.11 Assets of Insurance Sector CY09 CY 07 CY 05 CY 03 CY 01 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 400 In response.665 23.026 Leasing 46.920 0 FY09 30.071 Growth 3.180 103. Insurance Sector The factors such as the emergence of macroeconomic instability since late 2007.760 2.703 65.635 1.055 ‐ 3. Given the perceived lack of confidence in the economy and to some extent.137 318.774 478.661 339.603 462.041 21.973 18.289 17.458 25.948 46. CY07.562 19.803 94.742 18996 18.8 FY05 51.842 44. whereas financing from other funding sources declined by 15.201 116.657 393.200 4.417 FY08 58.005 Companies Mutual Funds 29.461 261.3 ‐20.875 23.pk) .572 53.Monetary Sector Table 5.434 21. which strengthened further to 58.181 600.9 22. SBP Mutual funds lead the sector in terms of their share in total assets. At the close of 79 published by Accountancy (www. 5.061 3.3 21.956 1.186 63.8 177. in the financial sector.939 97.906 19.493 Total Assets 213.3 percent.080 DFIs 68. as against 55. posed substantial challenges to the performance of insurance sector in CY08. NBFC’s borrowings from banks against their credit lines declined by 34.com.568 Modaraba 17.245 107.936 35. 80 published by Accountancy (www.pk) . The asset base further increased by 10. The level of concentration is high. though relatively less skewed in general insurance companies such that the top five companies hold more than 70 percent of the total assets of the general insurance sector. up 5.6 percent in CY09 to Rs 377. the asset base of the insurance sector stood at Rs 341.accountancy.com.5 percent in comparison with CY07.5 billion.Economic Survey 2009‐10 CY08.4 billion. Other Deposits / Money ratio 0.8 9.776 2.006 75.7 5.6 19.1 15.512 4.244 5.191 1.014 2.980.3 22.702.931 7.644 3.9 22.9 61.2 0.0 7.1 0.5 62.Table 5.6 5.1 2.7 20. Currency Issued 617.1 0.9 6.694 180.905 4.3 9.1 5.291.660 145. Time Deposits / Money ratio 39. Currency in tills of Scheduled Banks 4.697 2.181 982.152.4 61.805.5 9.472 48.5 21. These deposits were previously included in private sector deposits which have now being included in government deposits d : Totals may not tally due to separate rounding off 6.420 1.966 77.261 4.531 1.962 3.408 2.6 9. # 8) is issued on monthly returns reported by scheduled banks to SBP and published in Statistical Bulletin from Aril 2008 c : The stock data of M2 has been revised since June 2002 due to treatment of privatization commission deposits with NBP as government deposits.072 68.485.480 791.900 2.116 3.4 2. in million 2004 2005 2006 2007 1.8 6. deposits of foreign central banks.4 23.231. published by Accountancy (www.359. Currency / Money ratio 23.1 5.4 2.260 2.3 2.8 Income Velocity of Money 2 P : Provisional Source: State Bank of Pakistan 1 : Excluding IMF A/c Nos 1 & 2 SAF Loans A/c deposits money banks.960.960 3.114. RFCD / Money ratio 5.295 195.193 80.1 2.508 712.325 1.7 20.5 6.116 665.287 5.689.0 Memorandum Items 1.432 43.1 5.662 4. Other deposits with SBP 1 6.1 COMPONENTS OF MONETARY ASSETS Stock Rs.9 65.173 1.364 279.4 2. foreign governments and international organizations etc 2 : Income velocity of money is defined by the State Bank as GDP at current factor cost/quarterly average of Monetary Assets (M2) Explanatory Notes: a : Data series on monetary aggregates other than M1 are based on weekly returns reported by scheduled banks to SBP b : Data series on M1 aggregates (as Sr.014 578. Currency held by SBP 3.439 58.686.0 8.1 0.905. Growth rate (%) End March 2009 2010 P 2008 2009 1.871 1.997 1.501 207.901 740.446.584 3.148 2.693 2.6 4.065.277.0 65.4 2.pk) .661.870 19.8 32.155 4.406. Monetary assets (4+5+6) 9.1 0.312 263.1 0.163.556 3.335 4. Scheduled Banks Total Deposits 7.430 280. Demand Deposits / Money ratio 31.143 5. Currency in circulation (1-2-3) 5.834 901.401 2.054.accountancy.2 40. counterpart funds.1 1.217.662 330.390 840.1 31.2 23.8 3.012 4.3 15.5 5.com.1 19.192.137.005 3.218 4.107 3. Resident Foreign Currency Deposits (RFCD) 8.213 2.550 36.6 2.0 39.384 3.492 2. 308) A.776 0 (604.034./WAPDA v Use of Privatization proceeds/ NDRP Fund for Debt Retirement vi Payment to HBL on A/C of HC&EB 9 Non-Government Sector 408. Changes over the year (July-June) 8 Public Sector Borrowing (net) (I + ii + iii + iv + v + vi) 86.871 210.763 218.699 941.252 147.890 47. Other Financial Institutions (NBFIs) (1.749) 287 3.528 i Autonomous Bodies 1 ii Net Credit to Private Sector & PSCEs (a + b + c + d) 403.705 443.021.552 125.459 171.884 (15.808 (5.657 37.000 1.847 i Net Budgetary Support 67.889 (546) (327.683) (23.054.364.619.906.564 710.330 5.449 170.148 2.288 2.551 (317.990 3.652 Note: Figures in the parentheses represent negative signs.662 (23.988 448.pk) .932. (110) 39 588 (1.446.749) 287 3.683) 15.696. PTC.801 a.2 CAUSATIVE FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH MONETARY ASSETS 1 Public Sector Borrowing (net) (i + ii + iii + iv + v + vi) i Net Budgetary Support ii Commodity Operations iii Zakat Fund etc.551 316.651 37.675 3.169 29.819 2.401 385.604 98. thereafter their composition has been changed as WAPDA.530 1.342.844 582.com.080.109 262.212 b.597) (23.263 984.269) (13.416 (94.964.223) 3.037 107.797 365.399 (1.511 4.381) (150.010 269.633 667. PSEs Special Account Debt Repayment with SBP d.727.118 232. and PTV.570.332 557.096 84.425.749) 287 2.272 190.708 462.700) 2.143 16.926 (9.622) 4.576) (114.075 116.541 810.681. Other Financial Institutions (SBP credit to NBFIs) 3 Counterpart Funds 4 Other Items (Net) 5 Domestic Credit (1+2+3+4) 6 Foreign Assets (Net) 7 Monetary Assets (5+6) 2006 2007 2008 833.329 114.576.083 74.924 87.341 3.011 525.749) 287 2.518.239 140.206.522 0 (762.423 (14.260 658. OGDC.889. other than 2(i) c.346) 2.239 24.536 414.714 3.925 116.834) 4.620 249.accountancy.933) 60.870 B.329 4.144 309.857 383.646 364.066 165.609 2.304 1.755 21.843 c.937) 37. P : Provisional Source: State Bank of Pakistan 1 : Till end June 1996 autonomous bodies consisted of WAPDA.323 114.152 1.788) (157.077.769 36.800 321.019) (822) iv Utilization of privatization proceeds by Govt.733) 12 Domestic Credit Expansion (8+9+10+11) 372.326 (5. Private Sector 401. Stock End June 926.920.657 (5. iv Utilization of privatization proceeds by Govt.114) 1.122. NFC. other than 2(i) 2.015 554.237 2.070 217.657 37.410) 4.202 (15.718 410. SSGC SNGPL.888 517.982 4.267 (15.879 92. PSEs Special Account Debt Repayment with SBP 489 (253) (118) (86) (86) 0 d.210 145.844 (66.218 16.287 17.318) iii Zakat Fund etc.478) (23.403 274.805.TABLE 5.237.657 37.762 (14.689.897 177.406.434) (2.186 3.869.227) 3.538 5.155 16.479.474 58.790 (5.508.681) 2009 (Rs million) End March 2009 2010 P 2.310.053 1.425 (543) (506.686 708.683) (23.153.444 13 Foreign Assets (Net) 73.979 2.799 27.877) (84.281 0 (621.387 2.250 623.988 ii Commodity Operations 19.418 205.814 49. Public Sector Corp.749) 287 3.635 238.181) (204.579 4.093) (97.143) 4.022 336.657 37.536 (5.206 17. KESC and Pakistan Railways 2 : Adjusted for SAF loans amounting to Rs 7371 million 3 : Adjusted for Rs 5278 million to exclude the impact arising due to mark up debited to the borrowers account 4 : Adjusted for Rs 8207 million being mark up debited to the borrowers account 5 : Credit to NHA by commercial Banks 6 : Credit to NHA and CAA by commercial banks published by Accountancy (www.779 14.065.190.994 112. Private Sector b.210) 26.208 14 Monetary Expansions (12+13) 446. Public Sector Corp.608 46./WAPDA v Use of Privatization proceeds/ NDRP Fund for Debt Retirement vi Payment to HBL on A/C of HC&EB 2 Non-Government Sector i Autonomous Bodies 1 ii Net Credit to Private Sector & PSCEs (a + b + c + d) a.038) 298 238 351 (144) 746 10 Counterpart Funds (7) 27 (24) 543 543 0 11 Other Items (Net) 122.225) (23.113.010 2.063 102.137.189.905 16.749) 287 3.884 127.654 (5.894 2.187 (519) (422.405 235.019.370 598. PTC. OGDC. 878 184.843 684.285 35.024) 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.0 12.041 32. Total Foreign Currency (22 + 23) 123.139 10.208 476. 35 as % of 10 28.098 278.693 3.756 25.789 1.979 205.884.693 141. Central Government Securities 173.176.924 145.540.079.674 1.001 3.941 169.107 97.672 323.121 12.296 551.212 616.718 Figures in the parentheses represent negative sign P : Provisional Source: State Bank of Pakistan Note: 1 : Effective 22 July 2006.774 1.006 75.015 5.509 159.794 5.021 56.173.437 41.056 23.0 30. Excess Reserves (18-16) 61.814 706.310.171 214.111 167.150 223.563 12.423 8. As per new definition.334 755. Total Bank Credit (27 + 28) 1. Total Statutory Reserves 127.656 307.0 INVESTMENT IN SECURITIES AND SHARES 31.0 69.777 6.627 30.585 171.417.738.441 243.453 165.387 3.550.011 136.637 192.685 621.878 184.798 54.3 SCHEDULED BANKS POSITION BASED ON WEEKLY RETURNS: LIABILITIES AND ASSETS Outstanding Amount at end June 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (Rs million) End March 2009 2010 P LIABILITIES 1.386 6.535 239.552 195.563 3.221.049 158.753 1.356.364 211.374 197.032 1.652 205.613 21.092 202.785.011 2.235.501 14.979 7. Inter-banks Demand Liabilities 22.408 8.0 24.934 27.235 44.TABLE 5.960 385.096 211.336 202. Accordingly.1 Borrowing (99) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.pk) .269 203.167 5.0 37. Total Advances 1.031 157.624.473.437 16. Balances with Banks Abroad 116.860 174. Foreign Currency held in Pakistan 6.079.801.109 213.089) 72.327 189.825 756.329 6.056 2.387 170.953 7.266 137.867 316.471 0 0 0 0 ASSETS 17.973 737. 29 as % of 10 70.018.0 17.955 666. Total Demand Liabilities (2+3+4) 1.947 9.217 5. Provincial Government Securities 77 77 76 76 0 0 0 33.057 4.996 275.276 11.809.211.693 29.161 2. Demand Deposits (General) 1. Money at Call and Short Notice in Pakistan 22.999.091 36.026.474 3.064 38. Total Demand and Time Liabilities 2.764 34.608) 54. Advance Tax Paid 42.966 77.659 77.231.809 72.0 74.862 218.873 3.893 220.350.328 293.177 586.016 411.220 93.836 177.725 269. time liabilities will include deposits with tenor of one year and above.950.967 3.001 3.565 522.652 315.2 69.759 3.417.182 512.796 35.861 6.790.0 73.275 4.980 2.331.136 36. Total Liabilities 3.051 53.167 15. Borrowing From SBP 185. demand & time deposits have been re-classified in accordance with BSD circular no. published by Accountancy (www. To Others 1.681 2. Cash in Pakistan 43.702 46.673.304.585 229.751.416 DEMAND LIABILITIES IN PAKISTAN 2.088.373 225.921 559. Other Liabilities 70.352.979 6. Treasury Bills 415. Bills Purchased and Discounted 120. 9 2006 dated 18 July 2006.574.585 171. Money at Call and Short Notice in Pakistan 22.164 199.974 3.010 24.214 4.556.244 194.785.432 255.338 316. Inter-banks Time Liabilities 10. Borrowing from Banks Abroad 6.154 1.873 2.470 7.745 1.236 69. To Banks 190 0 0 0 0 0 0 26. Capital (paid-up) and Reserves 190.0 29.952. Other Investment in Securities & Shares 140.462 48. Other Liabilities 645.243 172.387 3. Total Time Liabilities (6+7+8) 1.222 279.944 3.248 153.752 80.072 68.379.379.889.330 286.864 148.0 FOREIGN CURRENCY 22.856 60.938 3.8 18.560 127.334 10.274 2.2 Deposits (22.020.2 Deposits (9.641 846.821 670.587 313.0 13. Other Liabilities 27.009 13.686 4.332 12.707 140.501 307.404 99.227 1.425 173.182 178.518 15.624.221 17.119 218.475.470 7.952) 76.133 191.655 305.999.993 28.235 44.796 35.732) (25.081.0 30.125 1.884.249 3.624.667.433 414.056 2.853 16.449 7.accountancy. Other Balances 49.671 5.041 148.089 167. Balances with SBP 188.144 18.863 365.035 369.661 50. Total Investment in Securities and Shares (29 to 32) 729.218 185.563 12.972 170.244 194.722 3.0 36. Time Deposits (General) 1.066 BANK CREDIT ADVANCES 25.616 168.156.434 4.680.524.463 11.288 34.627 93.702 46.1 On Demand Liabilities (64.519 14.331.217 5.691 655.065.166 232.892 212.287 9.932 2.480 135.063 40.916 78.439 58. 17+18+19+20 as % of 10 11.156.608 54.938 3.274 2.093.1 Borrowing (1.329 6.957 13.236.662 20.344 17.469.942 TIME LIABILITIES IN PAKISTAN 6.796 300.952.917 400.786 87.554 86.3 25.0 71.245 2.313 639.193 80.943.656 63.758 4.491 2.014 18.741 788.344 17.680.440 3.589 3.088.095 97.759) 3.861 6.068 198.061 3.178 47.8 17.490.853 16.031 201.2 On Time Liabilities Assets (62.572 19.622 80.598 235. The time deposits of less than 6 months are included in demand deposits for the purpose of CRR & SLR 2 : Definition of time & demand liabilities as mentioned in BSD circular no 9 dated 18 July 2008 have been revised. Other Assets 563.098 612.847 84.0 14.0 71.414 484.057 4.460 65.624.214.105 95.934 28.667 39 Fixed Assets 61.885 3.226 2.894) (28.269.167 5.com.574 3.856 60.477 1.748 235.671 5.801 3.141 266.986 51. Total Assets 3.226 2.764 227.809.788 177. time deposits with tenor of less of than one year will become part of demand deposits. 55 480.97 134.70 2.30 2.30 11.60 2.32 1.91 4.50 2.30 2.60 2.49 2.60 19.67 End June Stock Source: State Bank of Pakistan a : It may be noted that data series of M1 from 2000-01 is not comparable as compilation of M1 based on weekly data has been discontinued by the SBP.30 2.40 2.50 2.14 1797.60 19.74 2512.70 2.80 13.46 341.40 2.54 103. These deposits were previously included in private sector deposits which have now being included in government deposits published by Accountancy (www.16 4.80 18.73 938.137.00 14.62 116.64 3.40 2.60 14.40 2.20 17.280.21 2720.50 17.406.93 96.20 14.485.30 2.60 2.pk) .30 2.14 302.689. Now M1 is being compiled on the basis of monthly returns and will be reported in the monthly statistical Bulletin of the SBP beginning from April 2008 in its table 2.40 824.20 13.TABLE 5.20 5.63 4689.60 2.56 80.80 12.30 9.80 18.50 6.77 423.01 443.40 26.70 2.com.64 505.40 25.63 13.40 2.526.431.10 15.57 595.30 15.03 163.04 1.02 269.61 1494.20 9.137.80 17.14 5.206.70 2.08 206.80 - 5.50 2.078.25 400.40 2.20 11.03 104.1 b : The stock data of M2 has been revised since June 2002 due to treatment of privatization commission deposits with NBP as government deposits.27 183.70 2.36 2174.751.83 159.82 358.70 2.68 3155.45 118.40 2.70 2.63 185.39 703.91 211.30 7.10 17.80 12.48 2.22 9.68 1.91 327.70 2.960.12 1.33 643.400.14 448.065.053.11 240.accountancy.16 265.51 146.51 290.55 1.36 240.40 2.88 2.50 8.4 INCOME VELOCITY OF MONEY Narrow Money M1 Monetary Assets (M2) (Rs million) Growth Percentage (Rs billion) Income Velocity of Monetary Assets (M2) 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 73.70 12.70 2.04 739.23 1.20 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 End March 2008-09 2009-10 P P : Provisional Explanatory Note: 1275.10 19.14 1. 5 HSBC Bank Middle East Limited 6 Oman International Bank S.A. FOREIGN BANKS AND DFIs (As on 30-03-2010) Public Sector Commercial Banks 1 First Women Bank Ltd.pk) .C.5 LIST OF DOMESTIC.com. Ltd. (E. 5 Pak Kuwait Investment Company of Pakistan (Pvt) Limited 6 Pak Libya Holding Company (Pvt) Limited 7 Pak Oman Investment Company (Pvt) Limited 8 Saudi Pak Industrial & Agricultural Investment company (Pvt) Limited Micro Finance Banks 1 Kashf Microfinance Bank Limited 2 Khushhali Bank 3 Network Micro Finance Bank Limited 4 Pak Oman Micro Finance Bank Limited 5 Rozgar Micro Finance Bank Limited 6 The First Micro Finance Bank Limited 7 Tameer Micro Finance Bank Limited Source: State Bank of Pakistan and Finance Division.C.Mitsubishi UFJ Limited Development Financial Institutions 1 House Building Finance Corporation Limited 2 Pak-Brunai Investment Company Ltd 3 Pak-China Investment Co.O.S. Ltd. published by Accountancy (www. 2 National Bank of Pakistan 3 The Bank of Khyber 4 The Bank of Punjab Specialized Scheduled Banks 1 Industrial Development Bank of Pakistan Limited 2 The Punjab Provincial Co-operative Bank 3 SME Bank Limited 4 Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited Private Local Banks 1 Allied Bank Limited 2 Arif Habib Bank Limited 3 Askari Bank Limited 4 Atlas Bank Limited 5 Bank Al-Falah Limited 6 Bank Al-Habib Limited 7 Bank Islami Pakistan Limited 8 Dawood Islamic Bank Limited 9 Dubai Islamic Bank Pakistan Limited 10 Emirates Global Islamic Bank 11 Faysal Bank Limited 12 Habib Bank Limited 13 Habib Metropolitan Bank Limited 14 JS Bank Limited 15 KASB Bank Limited 16 MCB Bank Limited 17 Meezan Bank Limited 18 my Bank Limited 19 NIB Bank Limited 20 Samba Bank Limited 21 Silkbank Limited 22 23 24 25 Soneri Bank Limited Standard Chartered Bank (Pakistan) Limited The Royal Bank of Scotland Limited United Bank Limited Foreign Banks 1 Al-Baraka Islamic Bank B.A.) 2 Barclays Bank PLC 3 Citibank N. 4 Deutshe Bank A.accountancy. 7 The Bank of Tokyo . 4 Pak-Iran Joint Investment Co.TABLE 5.G.G. 88 13.68) 9.09 12.83 (13.07 (13.10 12.19) (14.66) (10.86) (14.00) 13.87 11.45) 2008 Jun 13.32 (13.75) (12.67) (9.84 14.11) 11.54) 12.23) (10.34 7.77) 13.36 (10.52) 7.04 11.01 14.87) 12.22) (14.92) 11.28) (13.42 14.29) 14.86) 9.66) (9.14) (14.08 (7.com.55) (14.87) Dec 11.78 (11.60 (13.10) Source: State Bank of Pakistan published by Accountancy (www.75 12.05) 11.58 12.84) Dec 9.54) 2004 Jun 10.11) 10.21 (12.51) 2006 Jun 11.31) 11.96) (13.60) 8.pk) .11 (12.49) 9.70 (9.48) II.68) 10.30 13.51 (8.16 (13.01) 8.06) 11.02 15.97 (11.90 12.59 (9.50 9.08) 9.76 14.71 (9.18) (15.07 (13.03) (10.78) 12.76 (6.76 (10.14) 2003 Jun 12.93 (11.56 (13.22) Dec 15.98) 12.93 7.83) 10.43) (5.64) 2009 Jun 14.80 (12.25 (11.65 (13.57) (13.03) 6.08 14.86) Dec 14.09 (11.41) (10.23 (11.02) (15.90) (10.09) 11.72 (15.33) (12.66) 11.07 (11.39 14.01) 2004 Jun 9.29) 11.51 (13.18) (12.02) 13.62) (13.00 (13.07 (14.87) 13.73) (13.62) (10.70) 11.35) 8.86) 12.80 (11.62) Dec 14.05) 8.37 (12.57) 13.55) (12.58) 2007 Jun 10.70) 13.71) 13.86 (9.20) 2007 Jun 12.10) 12.03) (7.74 (7.73) (14.52) 13.63 (12.80 (9.95) (7.01 (7.21 (11.39 (11.84 (13.86 4.01 (6.62 (15.34) (10.14) 13.02) (15.88 (14.40) (11.31 (10.53 12.21) (12.20) (9.93 11.31 (16.45 (13.01) 6.14 (13.55) 11.42) 2002 Jun 9.77) (7.81) 11.53 (11.58 (11.87 (12.02 (13.04 (9.23) 12.27 (13.67) 15.26 10.26) (11.50) (13.20) (14.23 (10.61 12.64 (11.70 (13.17) Machinery Real Estate Financial Obligations Others 12.49) (13.08 (9.39) 10.14 (10.57 (10.08) 6.01) (7.05 (13.85) 12.20 (9.86 5.99) 10.88) (14.27) 12.55) 15.89 14.47 (12.02) 9.76 (9.43 13.82) 2008 Jun 11.54 (13.60 (13.66 10.68) 10.26 10.95) (9.02 11.18 13.60) 13.47 13.71) 5.87 (10.31 9.10 (8.53 (12.51) 10.89 (7.05) 10.67) 2009 Jun 14.09) 13.86) (5.67) 6.30) 12.62 (13.59 (4.66 (12.66) 7.96) (14.91 (11.83 15.71 (12.23 13.02 13.93) (11.00 15.68 (9.23) (14.43 5.10) Dec 14.30 (15.19 (5.65) 11.68 (8.50 (13.62 (10.03 9.72) 15.70) * : Weighted average rates shown in parentheses represent Private Sector.20 (14.13) 9.77) 4.86 (8.79) 12.81) 2005 Jun 9.35 (11.13) 9.22) 11.84 (14.59) 13.70) 10.55) 13.66 (15.28) (5.85 (12.41 (8.68) 10.81) 2003 Jun 11.81) 7.TABLE 5.55 (10.06) 11.91) 12.26 (11.82) (9.38 (12.30) 11.04) 11.21) 13.22 (11.27 10.32) 16.16 (10. ISLAMIC MODES OF FINANCING 2001 Jun 11.21 (13.47 (13.37 10.64 (14.20 (13.15 8.37 (12.07) 12.25) (12.72 (12.73 6.66) (14. INTEREST BEARING 2001 Jun 11.60) 13.19 (8.55 (8.15 (10.73 (10.28) Merchandise 13.68 (6.86 (14.79 10.83) 13.93 14.30 (12.74 (13.85 13.12 (13.66 (11.82) 11.05 (11.02) (12.75) 13.07) Stock Exchange Securities 13.92 7.48 (11.accountancy.24) 13.54) 7.82 (9.08) 6.04) (13.27 (9.84) (9.27 (11.82) 6.21 10.88 8.87) 2002 Jun 8.55 (16.55) 15.17) (7.16) 12.96) (6.70) (11.04) (11.64) 13.07) 8.69 (13.30) 12.32 13.05 (12.39 (9.19) (10.68) 11.42) 12.60) 14.66) 12.88) 2006 Jun 10.20) 2005 Jun 8.49) 13.79) (15.6 SCHEDULED BANKS IN PAKISTAN (Weighted Average Rates of Return on Advances) (Percent) As at the Precious End of Metal I.11 10.25 12.75 (13.94 (8.00) (13.78) (14.72 (14.12) 13.99) Total Advances* 13.98) 13.30) 11.32 13.03 13.78 (12.01 (12.88 (13.45 (11.11) 12.19 14.26) 11.01) 9.47 (14.43 (11.31 (14.09 (6. 13.61 (10.92 (11.18 15.54 (14.70 11.15 7.63 9.02 (10.03 7.52) 13. 261 11.102 133.440 422.185 182.356 6.018 731.027 1.549 8.647 661.026 186.442 Six Month Maturity Amount Offered i) Face value ii) Discounted value 747.914 251.798 947.792 566.451 13.594 Twelve Month Maturity Amount Offered i) Face value ii) Discounted value 695.908 241.242 74.815 0.456 8. * : MTBs was introduced in 1998-99 published by Accountancy (www.752 67.470 12.659 1.372.507 332.948 502.771 136.401 165.496 Amount Accepted i) Face value ii) Discounted value 349.354 328.885 532.786 9.114 470. 1 A Securities Market Treasury Bills * Three Month Maturity Amount Offered i) Face value ii) Discounted value 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 216. C 2003-04 109.433 86.907 219.7 SALE OF GOVERNMENT SECURITIES THROUGH AUCTION No.202 787.636 717.046 2.413.799 459.487 8.019 236.188.340 1.708 389.112 173.786 607.968 8.421 70.201 29.279 272.212 2.385 12.902 8.484 139.211 441.639 12.713 128.523 7.166 69.946 154.702 2.396 2.174 724.a.187 2.483 120.791 8.039 157. ii) Maximum % p.326 8.094 90.) Weighted Average Yield i) Minimum % p.042 115.584 255.687 11.945 7.673 176.057.130 402.a.688 65.a.404 1.938 253.784 332.173 382. ii) Maximum % p.425 665.688 11.293 823.011.401 8.306 12.768 136.289 125.990 326.778 14.709 598.256 256. 1. million) July-March 2009-10 Weighted Average Yield i) Minimum % p.757 509.011 11.251 127.479 7.315 1.009 341.729 136.552 Weighted Average Yield i) Minimum % p.315 8.332 Amount Accepted i) Face value ii) Discounted value B 2002-03 (Rs.accountancy.668 14.626 232.719 466.472 11.218 1.658 5.541 206.575 115.995 1.225 158.941 1.425 931.622 131.207 1.569 555.814 Amount Accepted i) Face value ii) Discounted value 264.637 214.017 7.a.002.Table 5.574 975.652 183.076 2. ii) Maximum % p.485 8.689 8.629 78.pk) .a.160 9.951 658.a.316 11.004 341.430 157.106 108.160 11.691 8.337 476.682 1.197 91.476 87.231 29.902 11.359 716.com.885 460.855 11.768 210.106 634.609 (Contd.008 294. 055 8.792 7. in million) July-March 2008-09 2009-10 2007-08 211.210 12.316 16.887 4.867 73.050 57.867 5.179 13.317 5.546 11.472 14.734 4.311 9.828 51.com.240 30.620 140.775 - - - - 11.a.254 2.260 21.161 87.963 26.8454 10. (2) Maximum % p.705 - 6.411 14.392 11.3273 14.606 244 3.441 14.994 0.000 0.700 15.000 0.235 0.853 11.848 12.846 10.a.a.002 9. Amount Accepted (a) 03 Years Maturity.400 2.138 11.706 8.658 771 10.296 13.700 13.588 14.692 3. ** : PIBs was introduced in 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 (Rs.016 2.a.896 6. (2) Maximum % p.800 12.a.608 16.000 0.158 9.651 14.7041 12.593 16.075 10.796 10.500 7. Pakistan Investment Bonds ** Amount Offered 03 Years Maturity 05 Years Maturity 10 Years Maturity 15 Years Maturity 20 Years Maturity 30 Years Maturity B.169 4.500 1.4159 12.300 141.875 8.389 9. (2) Maximum % p.757 0 - 11.613 1.595 11.000 9.475 14. (a) 30 Years Maturity (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Weighted Average Yield # (1) Minimum % p.996 0 - 9.100 16.000 16.100 4.514 58. (a) 7 Years Maturity (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Weighted Average Yield # (1) Minimum % p.683 8.986 12.099 13.250 8.765 427 4.000 - 10.525 - 8.882 5.236 1.270 0.564 - - - - - - 2.619 12.875 - - - - - - 14.000 0.268 - 221.697 13.058 11.a.526 5.551 13.840 93.935 1.035 - 7.200 23.369 27.165 8.012 3.000 9.584 - 9. Securities 2 A.525 74.373 13.8005 9.500 1.800 14.509 32.211 23.680 11.041 14. (2) Maximum % p.119 8. (a) 15 Years Maturity (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Weighted Average Yield # (1) Minimum % p.587 6.127 0.pk) .118 14.839 3.646 9.85 11.023 5.750 20. (2) Maximum % p.982 39.106 10. (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Weighted Average Yield # (1) Minimum % p.507 10.738 4.193 1.848 107.a.426 12.168 7.a.603 3.311 61.250 9.420 9.579 - 8.295 12.696 50.356 12.017 36.855 15.778 9.299 16. (a) 20 Years Maturity (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Weighted Average Yield # (1) Minimum % p.173 11.523 4.013 0 0 - 16.883 12.174 10.Table 5.750 19.7 SALE OF GOVERNMENT SECURITIES THROUGH AUCTION No.533 100 2.000 0.864 12.536 3.108 13.291 38. (a) 05 Years Maturity (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Weighted Average Yield # (1) Minimum % p.a. (2) Maximum % p.860 11. (a) 10 Years Maturity (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Weighted Average Yield # (1) Minimum % p.a.410 25.952 3.000 - 11.336 12. (2) Maximum % p.a.528 10.993 0.335 14.799 65.accountancy.a.590 0 0 - 199.922 - 6.777 3.a.a.074 45.225 13.640 9.750 15.014 9.050 1.749 Source: State Bank of Pakistan published by Accountancy (www.000 9. stabilising at around 14.7% year‐on‐year increase for April.0 Apr 20.1).2).0 Apr 10. from 0.0 Jan‐09 25.5 percent in October 2009).0 Jan‐09 35.9 percent in October 2009. From a low of 8. 81 published by Accountancy (www. the Sensitive Price Index (SPI) has recorded a 16.5% for July to April.0 25.2: CPI ‐ Overall. Fig‐6. year‐on‐year Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has accelerated to 13.0 Oct 15. average inflation stood at 22. Similarly.com.0 CPI Apr 40. The sharp upward trend is captured in the following table. inflationary pressure has intensified of recent on account of a number of adverse developments. which has persisted since the beginning of 2009. mainly relating to food and energy. Food inflation has remained elevated in the past few months.0 Oct SPI 30. while the rate of change in prices of Non‐Food items has been recorded at 12.0 Jul‐08 WPI Apr 30.accountancy. overall inflation was recorded at 11. and stood at 10.2 percent for April (from 10 percent in October). which provides a snapshot of benchmark international commodity price indices.5 percent (from 7. the IMF Commodity Price Index experienced a 49% increase.0 Non‐Food 0.6 Inflation After declining for much of calendar 2009. For the corresponding period in 2008‐09.0 Jul‐09 10.0 Jul‐09 20.0 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics A sharp spike in global commodity prices.pk) .0 Overall Oct 40.1: Inflation Trend Fig‐6.0 Oct 5. non‐energy (NFNE) component of the CPI basket. On a period‐average basis.6 percent in April. Food and Non‐Food Food 35.0 0.3%.3 percent as of April 2010 (Figure 6. with the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation rising steeply. Core inflation. has reversed its path of moderate decline. While international oil prices rose 70% year‐on‐year between April 2009 and April 2010. has exerted strong upward pressure on the domestic price level.0 Jul‐08 Jan‐10 5.7% in October 2009 (Figure 6.3% in August 2009 to 22% in April 2010. The refuelling of inflationary pressure is evident in all major price indices. versus 6.0 Jan‐10 15. defined as inflation in the non‐food. UN While the world price of sugar has fallen dramatically since its peak in January 2010. before settling at 16. Economist Partly as a result of the rise in the world oil price. Source: Food and Agricultural Organisation. India’s food price inflation soared to 19. Dairy prices.7 percent in March.com. it is still up 21% year‐on‐year. World Bank. While there has been some retrenchment in the index since. though with varying orders of magnitude.pk) . global food prices. and partly a result of secular factors at play such as the increasing diversion to bio‐fuels. with dairy products also a strong gainer (see below).3 percent in July 2009.accountancy. rose steeply in the first seven months of 2009‐10.1: Global Commodity Price Indices Index As of: IMF Commodity Price Index EIU All Commodity Index (US$) Crude Oil FAO Food Price Index IMF Food Price Index EIU Food Price Index World Bank Food CPI – Pakistan April April April April April April April April Index Value % change 2009 2010 103 153 49 182 207 14 50 84 68 143 162 13 133 146 10 207 196 ‐5 199 203 2 221 253 14 Source: FAO. IMF.9 percent in February 2010. on the other hand. it should be of little surprise that the sharp resurgence of inflation is not restricted to Pakistan and is both a global as well as a regional phenomenon. Given this backdrop of global price developments. peaking in January with a year‐on‐year gain of 20 percent. which gained 112 percent at its peak in the period under review. The biggest increase came about in the world sugar price index.2 percent in December 2009. to 10. Similarly. it is still up 13% on a 12‐month basis in April. food inflation in Bangladesh rose from 3. 82 published by Accountancy (www. have resumed their upward march. as proxied by the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organisation’s (FAO) Food Prices Index.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 6. the impact of transportation costs on the structure of food prices. However. 83 published by Accountancy (www. for example. barring petroleum. Table 6.Inflation Global monthly price developments since January 2009 for select commodities are listed in Table 6. with inflation in non‐ perishable items contributing the most to the increase. since January 2010. the increase in domestic prices of these commodities remained relatively more muted as compared to the international price movements.com. FAO.2: International Prices of Major Commodities Sugar $/Ton January 2009 278 February 293 March 295 April 301 May 354 June 362 July 405 August 495 September 508 October 499 November 491 December 508 January 2010 584 February 560 March 418 April 364 % Change (Apr 10/Apr 09) 21 Crude Oil $/Brl 42 39 48 50 59 70 64 71 69 76 78 75 78 76 81 84 69 Wheat $/Ton 340 319 307 315 335 327 288 266 259 274 288 287 287 279 274 265 ‐16 Rice $/Ton 319 316 332 336 322 319 320 308 303 296 340 403 420 403 377 354 5 Source: World Bank In the case of Pakistan.pk) . For the first ten months of 2009‐10.2. the world price of sugar had risen over 110 percent. At their peak.3: % Change in International and Domestic Prices % Change Commodity International Prices Apr 10/Apr 09 Sugar 21 Wheat ‐16 Crude oil/Petrol 70 Palm/Edible Oil 19 Milk/Dairy 74 % Change Domestic Prices Apr 10/Apr 09 38 0 27 47 17 Source: World Bank. international prices for some of the commodities shown. among other things. Table 6. Food has accounted for over 40% of CPI inflation. while crude oil prices had increased 88 percent. The sharply higher contribution of non‐ perishable items to inflation could indicate. FBS The contribution to CPI inflation for July to April 2009‐10 by commodity groups is shown below. have fallen more rapidly than in the case of Pakistan.accountancy. 9 3.2 205.8 1.4 226.2 59. petroleum products.07 25.9 0.7 6.7% 0.7 3.0% 0.8 6.7 18. Some of the other factors that have contributed to the spike in inflationary pressure over the past two years include: x The weakening of the Rupee over the past two years 84 published by Accountancy (www.5 223.17 April 2009 April 2010 197.7 12.0 14.9 0.6% 0.5 28.3% 13.8 14.8 485. Textile House Rent Energy Household Transport Recreation Education Cleaning Medicare 100 40.5 12.66 1.26 11. the biggest contribution to year‐on‐year inflation in April has come from the increase in the House Rent Index (HRI).2 28. and natural gas for domestic use (Table 6.0 14. electricity.1 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics In terms of large‐weight individual items.73 2.03 10.1 0.6 19.0 224.com.3 26.8 3.2 326.05 0.4 11.5 5.0 0.5 247.3 5.21 0.2 0.8% 0.5 10.9 16.52 15.1 0.1 162.3% 0.4 0.4% 0.0 Point Contribution (July‐Apr) 2008‐09 2009‐10 Percent 22.7 10.8 Point Contribution 13.7 16.3 6.3 7.4 3. gas.1 13.43 6.2% 2.3 10.3 0.02 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics % Change The dominant presence of the energy complex items in the list of contributors should be of no surprise given the fairly large adjustments in administered prices related to energy (electricity.5).6 0.5 6.11 38.5 1.4 362.37 1.7 282.3 252.63 16.2 2.5 11.4 2.1 4.0 5.4: Annual Inflation by Commodity Groups (July‐Apr) Commodity Group Weight 2008‐09 2009‐10 Percent CPI Food i) Perishable ii) Non perishable Non‐Food Apparel.7 11.95 4.6 23. Table 6.32 34.accountancy.9 2.9 216.7 159. sugar.5 189. petrol.6% 1.4 8.1 0.74 18.81 30.4 11.6 0.4 211.3 189.0% 0.3 0.8 189.8 25.pk) .7 4. CNG) have had to be made over this period.1 23.4 3.14 35. followed by milk.3 0.6 488.00 23.0 12.8 3.2 0.1 13.6 0.14 0.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 6.1 11.1 22.7 388.6 10.5: Contribution by Major Items Weight Overall CPI Index House Rent Index Milk Sugar Electricity Petrol (MS) Natural Gas Diesel (HSD) Kerosene CNG 100. com. and is likely to intensify over the next few months (see Figure 6. all other things remaining the same. provide some hope that the unremitting increase in commodity prices over the past two years may have been interrupted. On the flip side. are likely to lead to an improved crop situation. governance issues in the power sector could translate into yet further end‐ user tariff increases. however. lower rate of 15% under VAT. a moderate disinflationary impact to prices. the wild card. While the straightforward impact in arithmetic terms may be marginally disinflationary. Fig‐6. The effect on inflation of the expected introduction of a broad‐based and integrated Value Added Tax (VAT) from 2010‐11.accountancy. should provide. and strong fears of contagion within Europe and possibly beyond. will provide respite from domestic inflationary pressure.3: Month Wise Year‐on‐Year CPI Inflation 2008 2009 2010 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug July June May Apr Mar Feb Jan Source: FBS Outlook Recent developments with regard to the sharp sell‐off in international commodity markets in the aftermath of the sovereign debt crisis in Greece. is 85 published by Accountancy (www. however.5 million). on paper at least. has been a matter of much debate. The continuation of prudent macroeconomic polices is likely to continue providing support to the consolidation of stability in economic indicators.pk) . due to a greater ability to purchase critical inputs. In addition.Inflation x Increase in the domestic procurement price for wheat x Residual Aggregate Demand pressures in the economy emanating from substantial transfers to the rural economy on account of an unprecedented government‐run commodity procurement program. including inflation. should mean that the large bulk of the retail trade is likely to be exempted from the VAT. Higher farmer incomes over the past two years. and a healthy increase in worker remittances x The “washing out” of a favourable base effect is now exerting a negative influence on the inflation comparison from year‐ago levels. The collapsing of multiple higher rates of GST (in a range of 16% to 25% on different goods) into a single. the fact that a high threshold has been proposed (annual turnover exceeding Rs 7.3). The remaining under pressure of commodity prices for much of 2010‐11 as a result. however. if employed in conjunction with close vigilance of use of bank credit for commodity purchases by the private sector. The revival of the price magistracy system can also be an effective “localized” tool in the fight against price inflation in essential food items. but it will be at a higher price. hence. but no dampening impact on domestic prices. imports were unlikely to dampen domestic prices. especially in the case of wheat.com. The higher support price may lead to increased availability. except to the extent of excess pressure caused by shortfalls in domestic production. with returns to farmers linked to better yields (volume‐based) rather than to a price‐based mechanism of support.Economic Survey 2009‐10 the behavioural effect on prices of the introduction of the VAT. An important limitation of the crop support price regime has come to light over the past two years.accountancy. So far. including monetary policy. Possible Mitigation Strategies In terms of inflation‐mitigation strategies. improvements in agricultural productivity hold the key to mitigation of food price inflation. Demand management is still an essential component of the overall policy mix to prevent an entrenchment of inflationary expectations. 86 published by Accountancy (www. and the implication for recourse to budgetary resources. policy options are fairly limited in the short run. using the crop support price as an intervention tool. however. In the longer run. A further critical element in the containment of price pressure in the economy will be continuation of prudent macroeconomic policies. increasing the distributional reach of US via weekly markets (Sunday and Tuesday bazaars) and the induction of large volume discount stores (such as hyper‐markets) can also be examined. A near‐doubling of the support price since 2008 has had some effect on output. and its likely effect remain moot. the impact on the general price level. A shift to more intensive agriculture is the need of the hour. The effect with regard to raising farmer incomes is. This will have a greater effect. however.pk) . it will not have an impact on reducing domestic prices. the experience of several countries studied suggests that the overall effect of VAT on the price level has not been large. especially in the case of wheat. The impact. However. The franchising to the private sector of government‐owned Utility Stores (US). there are clear limitations to this strategy. governments have followed an extensive farming policy. Generally. more demonstrable. if any. which is essential to prevent a spill‐over from food and energy components of the CPI to the broader household consumption basket – which to some extent is inevitable under the circumstances. including the diminishing responsiveness of output to price incentives. For much of 2009‐10. given the backdrop of high – and rising – international commodity prices. Segments of society vulnerable to the effects of inflation will require wider – but better targeted – coverage of social safety nets. Improved availability through better administrative measures against hoarding is likely to have some effect at the margin. 82 180.17 Note: The CPI 1990-91 base year series have been converted into series with a base of 2000-01.25 146.55 57.95 76.59 72.14 46.49 148.24 124.82 79.60 152.37 111.55 120.03 119.23 147.20 1991-92 47.25 51.86 82.31 97.50 105.54 2002-03 106.72 48.98 120.47 165.19 111.09 158.82 124.46 54.00 5.69 112.67 94.79 100.64 134.82 47.63 105.57 92.23 102.25 130.42 128.91 132.59 106.61 76.00 102.20 86.72 106.54 46.& CommuEnterdry & Personal & Tobacco & Footwear ments etc.94 1994-95 65. (ii) Education (2) : The nomenclature of Medicine Group has been changed to Medicare Group.78 54.69 162.76 44.64 2006-07 141.66 71.58 132.71 64.98 76.TABLE 6.50 103.39 105.46 117.pk) .89 107.00 100.18 105.00 100.46 92.15 38.27 93.01 82.46 39.72 103.44 119.00 2001-02 103.88 138.99 105.68 43.74 109.70 141.25 51.80 118.13 178.84 54.32 (Contd.10 73.91 204.90 134.24 67.93 88.90 2008-09 191.36 81.99 64.06 96.93 76.72 60.54 214.29 105.11 1997-98 87.76 103.00 100.89 124.43 80.20 59.00 100.33 51.28 215.14 100.97 168.56 193.) published by Accountancy (www.66 64.00 100.09 87.75 2003-04 111.15 90.*Transport Recreation Education Cleaning.20 120.60 40.50 223.41 1992-93 52.84 56.78 2000-01 100.accountancy.31 50.27 69.55 174. nication tainment Appearance (Base: 2000-01 = 100) 42.07 1993-94 57.21 156.1 (A) PRICE INDICES General Groups/ Fiscal Year A.30 104.02 93.66 120.76 133.40 106. Equip.90 Jul-Apr 2008-09 190.36 133.02 51.78 56. LaunBeverages Textile Rent niture.29 59.69 108.08 114.00 100.27 163.10 90.17 59.38 71.48 1995-96 72.69 152.31 51.23 179.72 115.26 86.92 159.79 154.55 1996-97 81.16 76.37 105.06 81.44 240.17 1990-91 43.94 110.36 147. Entertainment and Education Group has been split into two groups namely (i) Recreation & Entertainment Group.45 1998-99 92.56 97.50 87.80 106.77 49.25 67.87 2007-08 158. * : Transport & Energy Groups Index is available from July 2003 and onward while prices from 1990-91 upto June 2003 in respect of these two Groups have been converted into index Medicare 42.19 49.26 115.63 2004-05 121. COMBINED CONSUMER PRICE INDEX BY GROUPS Food Apparel House *Energy Household Fur.97 102.98 92.65 125. (1) : The Recreation.21 123.39 117.41 160.66 107.62 184.64 66.37 56.00 165.21 80.20 92.42 197.33 120.55 115.80 103.17 61.63 2009-10 212.75 103.75 64.00 102.97 46.17 141.38 89.05 75.90 198.29 107.08 138.37 65.65 131.73 46.95 47.82 41.00 75.21 109.97 49.50 74.49 85.57 155.43 73.65 200.com.00 100.42 45.31 53.29 125.46 97.00 100.98 2005-06 131.66 161.48 59.58 192.80 107.81 96.46 1999-00 95.86 117.86 140. 74 110.21 11.00 2008-09 191.34 11.61 12.98 125.90 5.23 4.69 171.43 3.50 103.45 175.40 7.00 2.52 188.46 94.42 22.28 2005-06 131.92 8.77 2007-08 158.40 106.50 3.28 107.63 10.54 214.60 12.52 52.21 134.87 148.90 174.00 104.54 2002-03 106.81 1998-99 92.89 95.58 148.50 3.1 (B) HEADLINE & CORE INFLATION Indices Year General Food NonFood 48.83 11.pk) .82 7.18 64.20 2.02 1995-96 72.52 11.04 *Core 10.90 215.17 10.27 1994-95 65.56 92.31 58.84 52.05 71.77 137.90 23.36 145.01 3.57 2004-05 121.60 174.81 *Core General 1991-92 47.69 3.55 119.84 10.20 85.TABLE 6.90 10.78 96.62 12.41 2001-02 103.58 2000-01 100.07 90.35 7.33 48.94 57.24 64.56 5.94 8.17 20.66 111.65 7.64 134.34 11.22 16.81 11.60 7.50 10.67 10.13 11.48 7.28 6.46 89.09 2.59 3.39 126.10 6.51 9.65 7.80 1997-98 87.52 5.61 2.70 10.80 6.46 10.01 11.28 2.28 169.50 4.09 71.03 19.02 17.90 11.58 1992-93 52.00 100.00 4.35 2009-10 212.accountancy.07 51.50 4.80 7.34 11.73 7.74 7.86 79.95 9.76 3.43 13.17 published by Accountancy (www.73 86.11 82.24 6.89 3.36 79.54 102.55 74.75 105.41 193.63 111.83 1993-94 57.48 67.10 2003-04 111.62 11.55 17.77 Jul-Apr 2008-09 190.37 17.com.89 11.52 7.72 58.79 1996-97 81.94 5.69 117.70 18.00 100.45 26.16 100.44 240.92 2006-07 141.47 5.74 1999-00 95.45 89.47 129.49 Note : Core Inflation is defined as overall inflation adjusted for food and energy Headline & Core Inflation NonFood Food 10.44 4.43 4.64 10.41 46. 77 197.10 119.90 73.54 184.00 100. Lighting ManufacFood Materials & Lubricants tures 45.50 72.33 221.85 72.42 43.06 114.38 50.91 173.57 223.18 151.24 48.22 57.83 54.39 100.04 87.62 99.00 102.15 B.78 34.86 226.10 200.26 51.00 100.99 135.23 111.55 40.76 100.45 258.45 97.55 245.99 92.48 388.15 201.70 Building Materials 56.1 (C) PRICES INDICES Groups/ Fiscal Year 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Jul-Apr 2008-09 2009-10 Note: General 44.14 101.18 213.67 112.39 83.37 107.27 156.26 65.71 115.90 81.01 62.33 244.67 212.55 133.10 102.83 125.01 93.38 127.TABLE 6.55 103.73 312.60 184.95 52.09 52.79 144.12 119.03 110.33 98.accountancy.45 93.37 87.75 181.47 81.61 124.95 100.88 84.87 105.39 437. Sensitive Price Indicator 46.00 101.04 217.80 293.48 143.63 216.81 69.44 138.33 213.68 146.78 121.01 113.34 128.23 62.94 221.16 98.67 138.77 140.67 67. Wholesale Price Index by Groups Raw Fuel.63 98.72 57.15 100.85 184.22 81.14 56.15 100.16 4.52 236.07 244.01 107.95 103.28 158.67 34.51 94.30 147. GDP Deflator 224.00 413.12 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics 1) : WPI and SPI 1990-91 base year series have been converted into series with a base of 2000-01 2) : GDP Deflator base year 1980-81 = 100 has been changed with 1999-2000 = 100 as new base year published by Accountancy (www.27 145.14 136.81 63.97 66.09 92.00 101.57 223.62 115.21 75.00 72.81 94.02 110.84 48.62 86.05 133.93 174.65 91.16 44.29 124.00 100.98 88.51 115.56 151.00 108.40 75.00 3.00 103.63 57.59 100.56 258.55 152.31 103.57 116.95 79.77 116.41 90.68 95.28 274.90 126.pk) .78 218.60 338.93 177.35 176.03 65.com.62 96.44 75.17 170.59 136.96 140.62 97.17 89. 30 0.84 May 0. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (C.98 -1.com.67 2.70 Aug 0.61 0.24 0.05 0. WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX (W.45 Oct 0.23 1.39 Dec 0.23 Jun 0.52 0.30 1.80 -1.63 0.20 1.33 1.2 -0.47 -0.50 0.29 0.09 -1.65 1.57 -0.45 -0.15 0.18 1.40 0.07 0.58 0.35 Nov 0.06 -1.45 0.91 0.34 0.47 2.I.38 1.63 -5.84 -0.36 1.18 0.18 0.27 Jun 2.42 2. SENSITIVE PRICE INDICATOR (S.33 0.29 0.70 Sep 0.17 Nov 0.70 1.53 0.20 -0.18 -0.21 1.29 1.49 0.49 0.77 -0.23 0.55 0.76 1.27 0.48 -0.04 1.48 1.59 0.12 0.15 0.77 2.45 -1.24 2.08 0.48 1.66 1.95 Nov 0.78 Aug 0.92 -0.69 -0.38 0.01 3.55 0.33 0.74 1.35 -1.07 -0.29 0.48 1.64 1.94 -1.52 1.27 0.55 1.37 1.36 0.40 1.50 -0.62 -0.31 1.30 1.38 -0.16 1.52 1.84 0.13 0.00 1.73 0.09 0.24 0.10 0.94 0.08 -0.07 -0.51 1.47 -0.51 0.01 1.54 2.85 -1.02 1.49 3.33 1.11 0.34 0.46 3.67 -0.I) converted into Base year 2000-01 Jul 0.40 C.71 63.04 0.01 1.60 0.17 0.04 1.69 0.60 1.85 -0.20 2.86 0.15 0.65 0.36 0.34 0.78 Apr 0.42 0.41 2.08 0.P.34 0.88 Feb 0.17 Note : CPI.11 2.32 0.51 1.75 0.45 1.47 1.23 1.69 0.67 -1.66 Jan -0.49 0.19 0.99 0.44 0.12 0.59 0.37 5.70 0. WPI AND SPI (Percent) Months 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 A.78 -0.9 0.05 -0.98 0.53 0.24 -0.53 0.38 -0.39 Mar 1.34 0.09 0.42 2.97 1.33 -0.69 0. Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.62 0.I.39 0.68 Sep 0.00 1.34 0.91 1.72 1.64 0.59 0.17 0.48 -0.35 0.08 1.87 1.74 0.78 0.13 0.02 1.62 1.34 1.09 4.29 0.50 0.39 0.23 -0.37 -0.16 0.70 1.15 -0.03 -0.37 0.30 -0.06 0.97 0.04 1.11 -0.47 -0.28 0.73 -0.04 0.90 -1.92 2.11 0.19 0.56 1.60 1.85 0.45 0.63 0.99 0.09 0.01 0.16 4.15 -0.31 -0.17 2.53 1.18 0.45 -0.02 -0.63 0.61 2.07 1.09 5.02 0.10 0.06 -0.28 2.25 1.11 -0.95 0.53 Apr 0.12 -0.59 0.75 0.82 -1.49 0.14 1.75 -1.35 1.51 1.) converted into Base year 2000-01 Jul 0.21 -0.61 1.45 0.59 0.39 0.34 2.15 0.15 4.32 2.25 Apr 0.54 -0.38 0.15 1.59 0.35 0.57 1.56 Mar 0.73 0.24 0.08 1.57 1.21 1.31 -1.24 0.14 1.35 2.16 0.50 -0.51 -0.76 0.) with Base 2000-01 Jul 0.2 MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES IN CPI.21 0.25 -0.78 1.05 -0.44 1.17 Oct 0.20 Jan 0.58 -0.45 0.68 1.10 2.18 0.69 -0.P.96 1.99 B.28 -1.39 -0.13 0.12 0.18 1.09 2.88 0.56 1.89 1.21 Sep 0.61 -0.70 1.66 0.40 0.34 1.65 0.36 0.48 0.14 1.23 0.33 0.45 2.48 1.62 -0.14 0.45 0.42 2.23 Feb 0.24 1.30 1.77 1.16 1.36 Mar 1.98 -0.43 1.70 4.99 1.38 0.97 1.10 0.42 0.23 0.56 0.01 0.36 1.01 0.91 0.49 Jan -0.pk) .38 0.09 0.14 -0.98 2.01 3. SPI and WPI 1990-91 base year series converted into Base Year 2000-01.56 Oct 0.44 1.78 Dec 0.88 1.30 -0.59 -0.08 1.54 0.97 0.77 1.35 1.34 1.42 -0.18 -1.31 0.49 Dec 0.87 0.73 0.36 0.94 0.14 -1.66 0.53 0.27 0.39 0.19 2.31 -0.31 0.77 0.12 -1.66 0.77 0.75 0.05 0.P.79 -1.33 0.23 2.91 -0.69 0.92 0.31 0.56 0.66 0.41 1.23 -0.32 1.69 -0.94 1.04 0.64 1.27 0.02 0.09 0.47 0.54 1.90 -0.accountancy.41 1.06 0.30 0.14 -0.32 2.25 1.02 3.24 -0.13 0.88 2.43 May 0.29 0.54 Aug 0.77 -0.39 0.33 0.39 0.49 1.07 -0.TABLE 6.16 -0.68 0.12 1.73 May 0.63 0.32 2.13 -0.16 1.26 2.46 0.42 1.52 Jun 0.42 Feb 0.70 0.13 0.98 -0.14 0.42 0.70 1.25 0.78 1.99 0.31 3.97 1.34 0.61 1.27 0. 16 72.18 47.20 1991-92 47.64 160.09 47.43 42.07 92.64 106.01 123.83 194.67 92.55 1996-97 81.62 57.97 104.22 81.55 216.85 95.accountancy.44 131.41 80.35 131.05 163.71 87.54 198.44 2009-10 212.32 186.19 156.91 1990-91 43.18 95.86 72.51 185.61 112.45 1998-99 92.00 58.86 193.000 43.05 65.81 87.44 105.45 141.00 103.TABLE 6.24 200.41 95.03 52.00 102.20 199.com.30 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.51 221.70 52.40 47.70 106.64 2006-07 141.51 143.13 52.98 2005-06 131.90 Jul-Apr 2008-09 190.98 163.73 65.18 111.78 2000-01 100.42 79.63 2004-05 121.76 72.51 51.54 2002-03 106.43 87.72 123.47 132.85 43.75 2003-04 111.88 103.48 1995-96 72.16 122.50 100.03 47.05 91.18 71.42 142.94 1994-95 65.46 1999-00 95.66 95.3 (A) PRICE INDICES BY CONSUMER INCOME GROUPS Income Group/ Fiscal Year All Income Groups Upto Rs 3001 to Rs 5001 to Rs 3000 5000 12000 Spliced with Base Year 2000-01 = 100 42.11 206.70 100.71 86.11 57.26 132.83 111.87 2007-08 158.00 2001-02 103.52 143.41 1992-93 52.61 64.11 1997-98 87.00 100.68 111.86 65.80 58.79 198.37 81.71 92.39 121.pk) .00 100.44 222.90 Note : CPI 1990-91 Base Year series have been converted into Base Year 2000-01 Above Rs 12.95 106.07 1993-94 57.90 2008-09 191. 75 11.59 1991-92 10.89 1993-94 11.01 13. CPI & SPI Base Year = 1990-91 series have been converted into Base Year 2000-01 2 : GDP Deflator Base Year 1980-81=100 has been changed with 1999-2000 = 100 as new base year published by Accountancy (www.32 Jul-Apr 2008-09 22.02 2005-06 7.73 12.64 16.3 (B) ANNUAL CHANGES IN PRICE INDICES AND GDP DEFLATOR Fiscal Consumer Price Index1 Wholesale Price Index1 Sensitive Price Indicator1 Annual GDP Deflator2 Year 1990-91 12.80 13.79 12.35 21.77 6.63 1997-98 7.33 20.54 10.21 2008-09 20.47 1994-95 13.10 7.07 1992-93 9.84 6.08 3.02 16.55 1998-99 5.02 10.21 4.42 2003-04 4.77 18.81 16.84 10.77 1.81 6.36 10.49 11.79 11.com.71 8.83 2.accountancy.44 26.27 16.92 10.35 6.85 1999-00 3.74 6.83 7.71 8.28 1996-97 11.58 4.26 12.41 20.58 7.57 3.54 2.83 7.58 9.96 10.00 16.78 2000-01 4.44 5.82 7.40 11.32 2009-10 11.10 10.41 6.72 2001-02 3.10 5.45 14.00 15.66 11.94 10.58 1.35 6.49 2006-07 7.28 6.pk) .37 2.78 1995-96 10.74 2004-05 9.57 7.08 * : Provisional Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics 1 : WPI.01 12.55 7.TABLE 6.70 2007-08 12.19 23.49 2002-03 3.91 6. 30 19.62 32.77 12.05 14.59 2009-10 25.Qlty) Kg Kg Kg Beef (Cow/ Buffalo with bone) Kg 25.64 24.65 109.19 37.38 26.07 3.05 43.93 126. 81.81 1994-95 5.Qlty) (Farm) (Av.94 18.45 15.28 5. 99.68 .08 54.52 50.98 24.45 94.50 154.07 5.49 49.64 23.TABLE 6.77 1993-94 4.64 47.75 11.59 7.29 54.67 44.50 29.16 8.14 18.39 48.78 83.37 29.80 15.32 1995-96 5.30 29.44 8.66 29.78 9.78 56.24 21. 53.Qlty) Kg Wheat Flour (Av.39 13.68 47.67 26.71 21.35 20.34 19.06 17.45 14.44 55.03 58.04 27.43 28.67 .15 103..87 123.85 25.86 21.66 6.09 13.84 117.03 19.07 38.19 23.29 9.32 12.52 8.17 57.32 6.07 18.com.46 31.08 1997-98 7.95 22.05 20.12 262.96 8.95 30..Qlty) (Av.87 25.31 27.00 258.09 15.51 29.83 56.04 111.49 34.60 15.48 27.83 106.95 16.20 106.85 10.12 50.19 61.08 202.55 13.72 .38 2000-01 8.42 24.25 11..28 31...17 7.90 12.30 143.39 236.Qlty) (Av.accountancy.10 57.64 18.32 1992-93 3.67 9. 60.57 11.67 20.45 20.86 15.77 52.20 6.96 13.24 103.59 8.31 17.94 2005-06 11.31 30.09 11.73 10.46 58.90 108.45 15.19 31.85 4.64 14.10 12.24 17.69 29.31 1998-99 7.37 10.) published by Accountancy (www.22 2007-08 16.53 41.44 18.92 15.19 8.97 16.74 1999-00 8.10 25.88 7.35 9.43 185.69 5.21 75.28 20.68 31.28 4.43 2003-04 10.69 9.Qlty) Kg Basmati* Moong Gram Rice Pulse Pulse (Broken (Washed) (Av.40 28.50 32.22 2008-09 23.12 13.77 17.05 25.53 25.58 2004-05 11.72 9.09 20.12 66.03 50.95 6.2000-01 is based on 12 centres while data 2001-02 onward is based on 17 centres 7. 91.64 6.62 4.82 Chiken (Farm) Kg Mutton Dry (Goat) Eggs Hen Potato Onion Tomato (Av.00 .01 124.35 14.07 37.35 .70 4.28 25. 50.27 21.90 11.22 10.18 2006-07 11.89 52.27 9.pk) .19 1991-92 3.10 35.01 55.59 103.96 5.93 8.11 56.43 2002-03 8.07 50. 69. : Not Available Note : Data for Period: 1990-91 ..19 67.09 11.22 57.46 25.01 55.71 30.76 7.35 30.64 7.4 AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF ESSENTIAL ITEMS (Rs/Unit) Fiscal Year Wheat (Av.74 2001-02 8.63 40.16 6.72 8.Qlty) Kg Doz.06 20.07 30.65 9.85 .73 9.64 13..67 15.25 17.77 .14 5.80 15.16 47.38 74.13 54.22 307.35 66.75 71.36 60.45 1996-97 6.03 8..16 224.85 21.49 35.98 8.35 Jul-Apr 2008-09 23.70 11.80 20.70 .36 34.45 52.53 28. Kg Kg Kg 1990-91 3.71 19.22 14.68 13.98 (Contd.68 20.82 12.45 170.83 141. 28 23.17 3.62 68.92 38.2000-01 is based on 12 centres while data for Period 2001-02 onward is based on 17 centres Sugar (Open Market) Kg 11.65 29.accountancy.65 63.21 3.27 17.80 76.79 3.54 19.78 54.) published by Accountancy (www.63 66.22 2.07 12.93 46.24 8.43 110.75 78.71 142.32 74.12 6.85 30.09 38.12 82.60 58.91 13.95 70.22 3.99 41.65 Milk Fresh (Ltr) 37.12 111.72 Gur (Sup.35 3.93 25.52 35.26 33.31 23.01 23.08 39.67 10.99 39.51 65.85 27.76 45.50 47.17 2.80 63.25 59.12 16.11 27.79 23.89 48.80 70.53 24.16 31.67 18.22 3.59 2009-10 133.31 49.88 51.09 21.62 (Rs/Unit) Tea in Packet (Sup.71 17.87 20.49 11.84 59.98 35.Qlty) Kg 24.39 68.25 Vegetable Ghee (Loose) Kg 19.81 108.67 15.64 70.71 119.com.00 61.82 9.87 (Contd.84 145.90 39.69 6.46 Note : Data for Period: 1990-91 .18 43.03 10.81 26.90 26. Qlty) Kg 8.70 76.26 11.Qlty) 250 Gram 20.20 55.00 148.91 17.43 3.90 11.00 49.08 Red Chilies (Av.82 49.45 19.11 22.92 59.21 21.92 18.18 13.66 147.12 20.72 66.13 3.40 2.23 17.55 89.08 30.68 61.87 43.25 40.62 27.pk) .19 19.00 20.87 73.4 AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF ESSENTIAL ITEMS Mustard Oil (Mill) Kg 20.26 32.21 110.95 53.32 Fiscal Year 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Jul-Apr 2008-09 144.05 82.54 18.77 19.79 94.05 41.33 70.45 36.68 5.70 7.47 118.33 38.29 12.62 12.00 2.99 62.63 Rock Salt (Powder) Kg 2.72 30.27 6.50 3.01 60.38 31.91 18.45 31.08 29.74 16.50 64.13 56.14 44.94 4.43 61.28 97.45 56.04 23.73 57.76 21.26 19.38 42.15 62.00 20.34 75.TABLE 6.35 19.27 49.94 97.67 148.25 2.19 3.71 8.07 14. 01 3.02 4.11 26.08 6.00 13.65 27.00 499.10 4.95 337.61 3.30 104.24 23.95 299.accountancy.50 0.21 46.) published by Accountancy (www.20 118.51 71.44 0.53 8.59 21.51 1.46 14.21 9.90 7.78 224.48 7.71 12.68 62.18 28.40 135.82 6.79 4.31 20.50 10.) 10.73 8.90 3.TABLE 6.35 7.00 Washing Soap 707/555 (Cake) 2.pk) .80 32.69 Voil Printed (Mtr.50 0.95 149.26 27.38 9.95 185.48 3.03 5.00 10.68 45.01 5.51 0.18 17.84 28.26 35.17 499.82 14.93 14.78 (Rs/unit) Lifebuoy Soap (Cake) 4.38 21.02 Shoes Gents Concord (Bata) 429.72 3.96 166.08 34.88 95.74 37.52 4.50 0.53 0.50 0.02 44.72 220.30 33.62 0.90 7.) 50.12 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Jul-Apr 2008-09 9.52 36.60 3.50 0.2000-01 is based on 12 centres while data for 2001-02 onward is based on 17 centres Match Box (40/ 50 Sticks) (Each) 0.95 6.06 6.56 3.33 399.00 Firewood (Kikar/ Babul) (40 Kgs.50 0.00 264.51 0.04 44.29 46.70 339.47 7.04 33.37 7.07 55.98 8.90 40.20 23.51 22.13 36.00 97.08 13.92 1.18 6.29 8.71 499.00 342.4 AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF ESSENTIAL ITEMS Fiscal Year Cigarettes (Pkt) 3.00 429.34 31.95 149.19 5.65 99.04 5.00 293.00 499.20 33.05 39.54 88.96 381.43 2009-10 11.76 24.13 9.63 32.58 9.02 11.23 7.57 6.49 2.56 29.51 0.53 Note : Data for Period: 1990-91 .49 0.29 399.81 26.71 0.14 5.74 34.81 6.48 7.74 264.35 0.50 0.14 15.00 492.69 3.00 399.11 Coarse Latha (Mtr.24 27.90 30.00 (Contd.31 67.) 25.75 3.10 499.00 6.03 191.64 6.50 9.49 12.00 428.57 48.00 12.49 0.com.76 18.83 78.00 1.01 31.04 99.93 104.78 12.89 22. ) published by Accountancy (www.18 41.50 134.79 34.35 11.32 371.65 27.01 27.83 122.28 8.17 14.51 11.23 13.95 168.88 20.41 38.43 11.82 28.63 224.07 11.accountancy.16 Mash Pulse Kg 14.38 44.com.48 15.00 14.28 204.00 13.94 14.42 13.64 170.75 14.84 36.20 28.82 119.04 125.93 32.96 15.57 38.70 21.98 12.59 Rice Irri-6 Kg 4.62 7.46 75.83 70.74 62.31 123.84 5.41 122.19 15.87 12.40 38.28 13.44 17.31 Fiscal Year 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Jul-Apr 2008-09 14.00 13.TABLE 6.95 14.69 12.94 164.30 18.64 34.07 9.2000-01 is based on 12 centres while data for Period 2001-02 onward is based on 17 centres Garlic Kg 36.02 23.06 131.85 38.48 316.41 224.35 Masoor Pulse Kg 18.59 29.11 356.68 14.93 34.36 9.83 Cooked Beef Plate 8.pk) .02 31.30 39.11 32.64 148.00 12.40 43.5 Kg 49.35 10.16 28.53 18.51 12.03 36.27 166.51 71.80 33.52 52.68 203.25 37.38 40.99 204.24 196.03 11.95 12.09 9.98 157.18 Cooked Dal Plate 5.98 204.97 199.40 11.01 30.38 48.82 44.15 203.95 10.41 16.09 12.41 6.56 35.26 44.93 155.15 18.74 87.21 26.08 6.49 35.59 13.06 15.62 109.30 12.54 2009-10 19.41 35.51 11.12 11.06 312.43 (Rs/unit) Vegetable Ghee 2.07 29.22 58.59 30.86 14.34 36.64 Cooking Oil Dalda 2.67 30.10 122.42 16.77 200.07 51.07 39.59 7.75 19.48 12.14 34.95 153.22 116.43 9.84 20.79 31.71 374.48 (Contd.04 353.44 359.58 18.77 23.95 24.84 16.91 70.22 9.36 77.26 40.97 356.4 AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF ESSENTIAL ITEMS Electric Bulb (60-W) 11.56 11.38 42.10 14.99 10.42 122.09 13.07 77.06 27.5 Ltr 57.09 61.87 20.46 25.97 38.66 6.71 62.71 15.01 44.85 18.11 45.83 25.65 17.81 46.95 104.91 23.90 Note : Data for Period: 1990-91 .29 14.52 6.43 169.32 39.05 17.54 71. 00 79.43 22.68 191.17 76.12 5.31 102.17 168.4 AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF ESSENTIAL ITEMS Tea Prepared Cup 1.96 110.77 6.03 11.02 90.95 36.accountancy.Size 500 grams 4.00 10.59 53.00 9.36 1996-97 18.39 105.79 69.90 248.40 7.47 18.30 3.66 1991-92 11.63 46.99 79.33 299.33 23.42 79.98 35.96 72.20 174.23 180.00 Shirting Hussain Mtr.00 269.25 56.77 70.95 211.00 79.18 2006-07 31.50 127.27 77.2000-01 is based on 12 centres while data for 2001-02 onward is based on 17 centres ** : The unit has changed from 500 GM to 400 GM Shoes Lady Bata 156.78 59.00 252.01 2004-05 25.00 79.38 Fiscal Curd Banana Year Kg Doz.22 14.00 Source : Federal Bureau of Statistics.00 11.79 39.64 39.83 78.16 88.25 21.78 94.47 7.98 11.08 50.50 15.27 5.69 83.51 2007-08 35.00 Chappal Gents Spang 33.85 58.00 379.06 1993-94 13.00 299.18 1998-99 21.71 1992-93 12.55 90.14 2002-03 23.02 3.34 217.62 14.91 8.17 114.96 2003-04 23.00 86.00 92.03 56.54 1.94 62.14 2009-10 49.33 78.40 105.14 116.00 342.59 56.95 181.03 4.59 5.95 174.43 2008-09 43.66 81.70 79.72 5.00 26.35 1.40 10.91 167.01 78. 1990-91 9.23 364.93 24.11 2001-02 21.00 79.18 129.23 108. 33.03 249.18 4.65 37.90 45.75 25.01 74.00 11.95 46.31 6.90 22.com.86 19.33 39. published by Accountancy (www.42 319.62 Jul-Apr 2008-09 42.53 89.76 35.58 55.38 44.31 55.25 52.34 121.00 79.28 59.48 127.16 21.75 13.33 (Rs/Unit) Bread Milk PowPlain der Nido M.78 84.38 28.88 2000-01 22.92 69.00 23.95 63.04 1995-96 17.41 Lawn Hussain Mtr.42 42.10 55.92 39.20 2.pk) .01 9.28 1994-95 15.74 4.36 65.16 Note : Data for Period 1990-91 .75 21.61 3.00 ** 11.55 3.02 72.72 1.49 19.74 20.87 20.09 91.00 372.45 91.25 102.38 39.TABLE 6.82 10.61 76.97 36.00 319.25 1999-00 21.96 6.45 71.00 79.34 32.99 2.00 299. 30.35 21.00 101.43 145.91 20.33 371.00 319.46 4.11 2005-06 28.17 55.77 94.37 1997-98 19.75 8.54 41. 60 1998-99 11.00 57.84 248.6* 2005-06 36.49 2.TABLE 6.49 2.18 (100 cf) 1990-91 2.) 28.58 Note : Data for Period 1990-91 .90 1992-93 5.46 2.08 33.96 1993-94 7.35 2003-04 24.10 2.79 2007-08 43.10 3.com.54 2.47 2.44 2000-01 16.44 97.26 2002-03 22.31 2.36 1995-96 8.accountancy.60 33.55 2001-02 18.57 1991-92 5.30 3.42 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.22 2.2000-01 is based on 12 centres while data for 2001-02 onward is based on 17 centres .31 2.17 2008-09 66.) Gas Charges Elect Charges (upto 50 units) 1.31 2.12 56.79 96.69 40.16 2009-10 71.28 1.38 69.83 67.31 2.01 1994-95 7.72 2.48 259.95 79.45 * 2004-05 29.91 Jul-Apr 2008-09 67.92 2006-07 39.pk) .: Not Available * : The unit has been changed form 100 CM to 100 CF Petrol Super (per ltr.66 1997-98 11.27 1996-97 10.31 2.19 88.74 55.4 AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF ESSENTIAL ITEMS (Average of 12 Centers) Fiscal Year Kerosene (per ltr.00 231.23 29.11 84.76 3.58 259.45 2.18 2.31 2.72 1999-00 13.14 2.31 2.68 Tele Local Call Charges (per Call) 2.37 66.34 31.45 105.52 96.09 99. 10 121.57 101.04 119.92 207.40 196.71 205.14 161.36 75.78 255.39 124.03 364.06 160.28 258.84 261.94 93.92 136.00 144.89 137.99 185.14 204.04 136.83 Vegetables 96.93 231.48 317.96 123.78 215.36 143.31 154.82 107.90 148.67 Sugar Refined 103.50 162.75 100.85 218.69 100.34 Vegetable Ghee Tea Meat 105.38 192.62 134.41 260.52 277.41 197.85 252.01 249.78 307.03 191.42 184.22 181.82 100.71 153.69 195.97 192.43 155.91 110.25 245.71 126.58 250.40 122.57 199.94 141.04 130.25 220.04 161.00 91.87 100.20 168.41 370.36 100.43 122.72 85.96 210.accountancy.18 220.00 285.00 100.63 270.12 175.80 98.66 270.75 277.78 175.99 254.56 318.78 266.04 100.79 139.95 249.46 181.48 201.50 153.12 185.00 96.28 130.50 103.11 227.12 191.21 180.60 218.00 109.96 190.37 123.60 Fresh Milk 110.93 111.83 100.00 114.78 181.85 241.17 (Base Year 2000-01 = 100) 100.19 173.17 95.34 96.59 Motor Fuels 102.23 103.24 430.33 203.52 127.28 205.35 188.com.36 259.26 163.50 148.32 (Contd.80 241.08 239.80 139.75 201.28 252.62 210.64 110.) published by Accountancy (www.24 135.89 245.03 134.44 95.75 285.85 204.77 136.TABLE 6.02 151.71 303.09 138.43 100.40 74.15 142.15 158.23 71.60 137.64 126.00 99.40 154.71 123.76 Rice 110.94 137.28 102.46 239.00 82.47 183.25 167.50 105.57 242.55 137.83 242.32 67.00 100.28 305.52 100.79 100.73 100.61 139.10 101.00 84.54 285.67 152.61 238.27 157.88 245.35 214.16 208.48 261.32 313.41 93.20 207.95 188.44 96.50 197.88 216.55 213.00 107.41 113.82 110.18 120.91 162.42 173.49 134.78 142.40 208.93 220.12 99.5 INDICES OF WHOLESALE PRICES OF SELECTED COMMODITIES (Base Year 2000-01 = 100) Fiscal Year 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Jul-Apr 2008-09 2009-10 Wheat 116.63 356.92 201.90 106.00 102.14 163.26 206.12 100.13 254.19 136.86 Cotton 106.71 188.80 111.65 116.46 144.43 147.60 231.21 190.40 140.13 246.78 169.92 163.18 216.57 115.63 Gram (Whole) 116.70 118.72 253.83 133.pk) .43 255.92 151.31 110.95 164.39 218.10 141.86 224.98 173.78 119.48 122. 33 128.05 156.28 205.68 229.16 133.81 140.77 110.18 176.66 277.23 120.TABLE 6.86 169.95 122.00 95.72 216.57 175.99 171.43 124.16 127.00 103.75 140.24 224.41 202.25 121.00 101.55 135.59 209.58 302.95 209.65 152.66 106.57 255.85 146.99 184.13 137.90 130.65 215.93 142.86 121.00 95.39 101.82 272.56 227.54 256.94 152.41 127.02 253.15 209.50 161.81 236.10 139.66 112.68 123.pk) .24 116.73 122.accountancy.70 146.00 103.61 139.42 111.24 201.45 101.64 203.23 93.42 272.59 110.14 208.13 208.00 100.98 Matches 107.63 120.00 100.59 222.28 144.97 180.32 212.83 175.55 100.73 214.33 247.86 124.63 264.26 FertiSoaps lizers 105.80 199.55 105.13 245.94 114.84 129.67 127.60 131.83 173.26 124.33 207.06 134.73 147.61 169.64 102.66 107.95 100.67 206.74 207.05 162.14 205.61 107.21 Cotton Yarn 105.13 101.58 199.00 101.00 114.59 128.08 Fire Wood 111.12 128.35 98.00 100.06 239.03 198.99 212.20 140.98 162.23 176.67 111.82 108.63 294.82 122.18 200.00 113.04 153.33 178.48 Transport 103.50 138.58 115.71 114.55 237.27 109.21 100.63 200.89 167.99 123.36 220.70 147.69 120.72 122.83 124.74 207.68 Leather 109.39 111.60 234.57 109.54 124.95 153.68 142.59 215.27 133.99 429.71 234.40 103.77 102.37 140.07 112.45 104.com.64 122.42 102.03 106.92 166.96 Base Year 2000-01 = 100 100.69 200.07 Timber 114.52 Cement 108.94 115.11 100.70 113.29 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Jul-Apr 2008-09 2009-10 100.44 137.47 141.09 170.22 129.79 124.91 182.32 293.15 104.67 107.45 383.93 201.00 372.59 117.29 310.76 100.36 108.65 111.70 110.05 216.14 100.08 227.79 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.15 190.62 184.01 127.33 103.19 212.26 109.26 371.46 228.70 247.00 106.00 100.5 INDICES OF WHOLESALE PRICES OF SELECTED COMMODITIES Base Year (2000-01 = 100) Fiscal Year 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Other Oils 100.29 265.83 100.04 100.75 316.71 116.06 121.89 102. In addition. which are expected to reach 4. large costs to exports imposed by the war on terror1.3 billion in ten months of the current According to The Global Enabling Trade Report 2010. This recovery was mainly contributed by a sharp narrowing of the current account deficit which more than offset the declining financial account surplus during the period. This large improvement is mainly on the back of a steep decline in imports for much of the year. The external current account deficit is expected to contract to around 2. a key early gauge of global trade volumes (Fig‐1). the outlook for global trade appears to have become more positive.pk) . and a severe energy crisis faced by Pakistan’s economy. the external sector witnessed an overall improvement during 2009‐10. The contraction in global trade was the sharpest since World War II.4 billion in July‐April 2008‐09 to US$ 7. 1 87 published by Accountancy (www. improving exports as world demand is gradually restored. as depicted by the modest improvement in the Baltic Dry Index. and a continued increase in worker remittances.com.accountancy. macroeconomic stabilization measures taken by the government also significantly contributed to overall improvement in the external sector of Pakistan.8 percent of GDP for the full fiscal year. Worker remittances have increased from US$ 6. With an upturn underway in the world economy for the past two quarters. with trade volumes falling over 10 percent. Fig‐1: Baltic Dry Index Source: Bloomberg Amid still‐difficult global economic conditions.8 percent of GDP in the outgoing year. Pakistan ranked 123 out of 125 countries of the world in terms of business cost of terrorism.Balance of Payments 7 The global economic downturn impacted world output and trade volumes adversely during 2009. and possibly for much of 2010‐11. exchange rate depreciation.0 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 on the back of recovery in export markets of the country. which appears to be secular in nature. Moreover. has emanated from a policy initiative of the government in early 2009 called the Pakistan Remittance Initiative (PRI). it appears for now that.pk) . On balance.1 Trade Balance2 Pakistan’s merchandise trade deficit improved by 13. A large part of the recent increase in remittances.0 percent exports growth for 2009‐10. export receipts of the country surpassed the full year official target of 6.0 10.accountancy.0 ‐20.0 30.com. With the potential for formalising the remittances market estimated between US$ 16 billion (World Bank) and US$ 21 billion (PRI) annually. is the collapse in global commodity prices induced by the Eurozone‐wide contagion from the ongoing Greek debt crisis. and spreads to other regions.218 million to $ 12.0 20. with both exports and imports contributing to the decline.0 40.0 ‐50. this could insulate the external account from pressure in the near term.238 million during July‐April 2009‐10. Exchange rate depreciation. However. during July‐April 2009‐10. Unlike last year when the decline in trade deficit was mainly contributed by massive fall in import expenditures due to decline in international prices. Import Export April 10 March February January December November October September August July 09 % Growth Fig‐2: Monthly Export & Import Growth 50. developments on this front could potentially also impact remittances and exports. international oil prices have fallen by over 11 percent. further success on this front can have far‐reaching positive effects on stability of Pakistan’s balance of payments in the years ahead.0 Source: FBS 7. Exports recorded growth of 8.Economic Survey 2009‐10 fiscal year (July‐April). the deflation in import payments will outweigh the other factors. this year’s improvement in trade deficit remained broad based. An added factor that is likely to extend support to the external account in the months ahead.0 0. If so. Since the start of the difficulties in Greece earlier in 2010. in immediate terms at least. and improved production of crops. especially if the fall out is not contained.9 percent in July‐April 2008‐09 from $ 14. 2 88 published by Accountancy (www. reduced imports prices and slower The analysis of trade balance.0 ‐40.0 ‐30. as evident from Figure 2.0 ‐10. exports and imports is based on trade data released by Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) on customs basis. pk) . Furthermore.7 billion in same period last year.9 percent in the month of April 2010 over the same month last year.5 percent compared to 2.2 percent in total exports and it contributed 15. Iran and Saudi Arabia. Textiles which is a major driver of the exports of Pakistan captured 53.3 percent share in total exports during current fiscal year and witnessed an absolute increase of $ 556. This year’s growth of non‐textile group has been contributed by positive growth rates of food group (7. Quantity export of rice increased by 66.3 percent to this year’s overall export growth.1 percent). The narrowing trend in monthly trade deficit started to reverse since December 2009 when it deteriorated by 59.9 percent deterioration in the month of march 2010.3 percent growth rate in same period last year. better marketing strategies and improved market access. The overall increase in export of rice came from non‐basmati rice as quantity export of non‐basmati rice increased by 100. Higher quantum export of items like rice.1). showing a growth rate of 8. petroleum group (7.0 percent compared to the negative growth rate of 3.accountancy. In addition to rice. trade account of the country has once again witnessed an improvement of 13. With a 66 percent share in food group and 11.5 percent during the July‐April 2009‐10 over the same period last year on the back of increase in quantum export of rice . Food Group export increased by 7.3 percent) and all other items group (65.4 percent in overall exports of this year.9 billion in July‐April 2009‐10 as against $ 14.2 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the 5. food group’s share remained at 17.0 percent on the back of improved domestic production and higher import demand from countries Kenya.Balance of Payments domestic demand remained the major factors behind the decline in imports during the period under review. Keeping in view monthly trend variations in trade deficit during the period and increasing monthly import bill along with expectations of increase in international oil prices. fruits and raw cotton due to their improved production in country along with recovery of international demand and exchange rate depreciation were major reasons for the increase in exports during the period under review.8 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the comparable period of last year. fruits and halal meat & meat preparation remained the major contributor to increase in food exports during the period. all major sectors witnessed positive growth during July‐April 2009‐10 over the corresponding period of last year.9 percent). Non‐textile exports grew by 9.2 Exports Exports amounted to $ 15.9 percent and reaching at 41. rice exports witnessed a growth rate of 7. 7.0 percent in same period last year. The import bill of the country decreased by 2. 89 published by Accountancy (www.2 million during July‐April 2009‐10 over same period last year (see Table 7.7 percent increase in exports quantum of basmati rice during July‐April 2009‐10 over the corresponding period last year. Within the broad categories of exports.1 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 when compared with the same period last year. The increase in fruits exports has been led by improved harvest.com.However. it is expected that country’s trade deficit may come under pressure in coming months. Economic Survey 2009‐10 A significant recovery has been witnessed in the group of textile exports. As textile exports grew positively by 7.0 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the 9.3 percent fall in same period last year. This recovery in textile exports is led by higher than targeted production of cotton crop and recovery in external demand. Table 7.1: Export Performance, Major Categories ($ Millions) July‐April Particulars A. Food Group Rice Fish & Fish Preparation Fruits Meat & Meat Preparation All other Food Items B. Textile Manufactures Raw Cotton Cotton Yarn Cotton Cloth Knitwear Bed Wear Towels Readymade Garments Made‐up Articles Other Textile Materials C. Petroleum Group Petroleum Products Petroleum Top Naphtha D. Other Manufactures Carpets. Rugs & mats Sports Goods Leather Tanned Leather Manufactures Surgical G. & Med.Inst. Chemicals & Pharma. Pro. Engineering Goods Jewellery Cement All other manufactures E. All Other Items Total * : Provisional 2009‐10* 2008‐09 2,727.9 1,807.0 182.1 208.8 81.6 399.0 8,461.7 194.2 1,211.0 1,466.0 1,424.2 1,400.0 553.3 1,059.6 439.6 713.8 773.3 456.2 316.9 2,990.4 117.0 236.5 255.8 368.6 190.1 621.6 197.1 397.0 394.2 212.5 930.8 15,884.1 2,547.8 1,681.3 193.6 134.6 58.4 421.8 7,905.5 80.8 916.5 1,641.4 1,434.3 1,408.6 527.8 1,007.1 396.8 492.1 720.5 401.1 319.1 2,968.6 126.7 227.2 252.9 470.9 211.7 509.4 210.5 195.9 475.3 288.0 561.0 14,703.3 % Change 7.1 7.5 ‐6.0 55.1 39.8 ‐5.4 7.0 140.2 32.1 ‐10.7 ‐0.7 ‐0.6 4.8 5.2 10.8 45.0 7.3 13.7 ‐0.7 0.7 ‐7.7 4.1 1.1 ‐21.7 ‐10.2 22.0 ‐6.3 102.6 ‐17.1 ‐26.2 65.9 8.0 Absolute Increase/ Decrease 180.1 125.6 ‐11.5 74.1 23.2 ‐22.8 556.2 113.3 294.5 ‐175.4 ‐10.1 ‐8.6 25.5 52.5 42.8 221.7 52.8 55.1 ‐2.2 21.8 ‐9.8 9.3 2.9 ‐102.3 ‐21.6 112.3 ‐13.4 201.1 ‐81.1 ‐75.5 369.8 1,180.8 % Share 17.2 11.4 1.1 1.3 0.5 2.5 53.3 1.2 7.6 9.2 9.0 8.8 3.5 6.7 2.8 4.5 4.9 2.9 2.0 18.8 0.7 1.5 1.6 2.3 1.2 3.9 1.2 2.5 2.5 1.3 5.9 100.0 Source: FBS Low value added products like raw cotton and cotton yarn fetches the major share of contribution in the textile group on the back of factors like early and better production of these crops along with restoration of external demand specifically from China. The export receipts from raw cotton and cotton yarn grew by 140.2 percent and 32.1 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the same period last year, while contributing additional $ 113.1 million and $ 294.5 million amount to this year’s export, respectively. Furthermore, quantum exports of raw cotton and cotton yarn increased by 116.4 percent 90 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Balance of Payments and 29.0 percent respectively during July‐April 2009‐10. The export performance of high value added like knitwear, bed wear and readymade garments has shown mixed trend in terms of their growth in quantity, value and price. The quantity export of knitwear and readymade garments witnessed decline of 8.1 percent and 7.4 percent respectively during the period. This fall in quantum exports mainly owed to unfavourable conditions in advanced economies and domestic problems like energy crisis. While bed wear witnessed negative growth in value of its exports mainly due to lower international prices as quantum export increased during the period reflecting improvement in external demand. Box Item 1: Mapping Pakistan’s Major Exports With Fastest Growing Products of World A comparative analysis of product wise shares in World exports and Pakistan’s exports exhibits a mixed picture. Pakistan’s major exports categories remained textile, manufactures, other manufactures and food having shares of 51.0 percent, 24.0 percent, 24.0 percent and 15.0 percent respectively during FY 09 whereas, the world’s exports during 2008 are concentrated in manufactures, machinery & transport equipment, fuel and mining products and fuels with the share of 67.0 percent, 34.0 percent, 23.0 percent and 18.0 percent respectively. This analysis shows that there is significant divergence between patterns of world demand and the items which Pakistan is exporting. The divergent trend shows the existence of structural rigidities in the export base of the country. Merchandise Trade by Product % Share in % Share in Commodities World Pakistan’s Exports 2008 Exports (FY 09) Manufactures 67 24 Machinery and transport equipment 34 * Other machinery 12 1 Other chemicals 8 1 Automotive products 8 * Other transport equipment 4 ‐ Telecommunications equipment 4 ‐ Iron and steel 4 ‐ EDP and office equipment 4 ‐ Pharmaceuticals 3 1 Integrated circuits 3 Fuels and mining products 23 ‐ Fuels 18 5 Agricultural products 9 ‐ Food 7 15 Other manufactures 8 24 Miscellaneous manufactures 4 ‐ Personal and household goods 2 ‐ Textiles 2 51 *: Not Meaningful, ‐: Not Available Avg. Five Years Growth Rate World Pakistan 14 14 17 * 15 24 16 18 11 18 15 ‐ 14 ‐ 27 ‐ 8 ‐ 16 7 9 ‐ 30 ‐ 31 45 15 ‐ 15 19 13 14 12 ‐ 13 ‐ 8 4 Source: WTO & SBP Comparing growth in these major export items of Pakistan with the world export growth of the same categories suggests that with the exception of textiles, major export commodities have managed significant growth in the last five years. In fact, growth rate of most major export commodities of Pakistan (with the exception of textiles) during 91 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Economic Survey 2009‐10 the last five years has averaged higher than world growth rates. While exports of textile, which is considered to be the item of comparative advantage, have exhibited growth of 4.0 percent against world growth of 8.0 percent in the same items respectively. Petroleum group export value increased by 7.3 percent during the first ten months of the current fiscal year as compared to same period last year. This increase in the group of petroleum mainly owes to increase in quantum export of petroleum products which grew by 19.3 percent during the period. Moreover, the 4.5 percent contribution in the increase of total exports for the period July‐April 2009‐10 came from this group. Other manufacture group export increased by 0.7 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 compared to same period last year. Jewellery exports have exhibited a stellar growth of 102.6 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the corresponding period last year and its share in other manufacture group has also increased from 7.0 percent to 13.0 percent during period under review. Furthermore, 17.0 percent contribution in the increase in total exports came from this single item during the period. With the increase of 52.6 percent growth during the last year, cement export declined abruptly as it fell by 17.1 percent during current period July‐April 2009‐10. This performance by cement sector was broad based as both the quantum and per unit price of exports witnessed decline of 1.7 percent and 15.7 percent respectively during the period under review. Cement export fell because of decline in its external demand and expected increase in competition faced by cement industry especially from Saudi Arabia. Despite of decline in overall exports growth by 6.3 percent in engineering goods, the exports of items like electric fans, transport equipments and other electrical machinery in engineering goods witnessed an increase in export of 38.0 percent, 82.2 percent and 19.5 percent respectively during July‐April 2009‐ 10 over the same period last year. The quantum export of electrical fans increased by 45.9 percent during the period on the back of increased external demand by different import markets of the world i.e. Africa, Middle East and South Asia. The category of leather manufacturers exports declined by 21.7 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 compared to same period last year as all three sub‐items (i.e. leather garments, leather gloves and other leather manufacturers) witnessed negative growth due to low external demand, lack of modern technologies, law and order situation, low skilled labour and energy crises. Furthermore, competition from other regional economies also hindered the exports of leather industry. 7.2‐a Concentration of Exports During current fiscal year 2009‐10, country’s major exports followed previous years’ trend of being concentrated in five items (cotton manufacturers, leather, rice, synthetic textile and sports goods).These five categories accounts for 70.9 percent share in the total exports during July‐March 2009‐10 (see Table 7.2). Intensity of concentration further deepens when analyzed within these five export items, as 51.3 percent contribution in the total exports came from cotton manufacturers during July‐March 2009‐10. 92 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Balance of Payments Table 7.2: Pakistan’s Major Exports (Percentage Share) July‐March 08‐09 09‐10* 52.3 51.3 Commodity 02‐03 03‐04 04‐05 05‐06 06‐07 07‐08 08‐09 Cotton Manufacturers Leather Rice Synthetic Textiles Sports Goods Sub‐Total Other Items Total *Provisional 63.3 62.3 57.4 59.4 59.7 51.9 52.2 6.2 5.0 5.1 3.0 82.6 17.4 100 5.4 5.2 3.8 2.6 79.3 20.7 100 5.8 6.5 2.1 2.1 73.9 26.1 100 6.9 7.0 1.2 2.1 76.6 23.4 100 5.2 6.6 2.5 1.7 75.7 24.3 100 5.8 5.4 5.6 4.3 9.8 11.2 11.4 11.4 2.1 1.6 1.4 2.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 71.2 71.9 72.2 70.9 28.8 28.1 27.8 29.1 100 100 100 100 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics Fig‐3: Exports Concentration % Share In spite of the structure of exports having concentrated in few items, it has witnessed a gradual change, as the share of other items in overall export increased from 17.4 percent in 2002‐03 to 29.1 percent in July‐March 2009‐10 (see Fig 3) which is an encouraging sign for the export sector of Pakistan. 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Sub‐Total of Five Items Other Items 09‐10 08‐09 07‐08 06‐07 05‐06 04‐05 03‐04 02‐03 Textile is the major driver of export sector of Pakistan. It not only employs the bulk of labour force but also earns much needed foreign currency. Generally textile manufacturer sector is segmented into two major parts consisting of low and high value added items. Being an agrarian country and ample availability of raw material required to produce Source: FBS higher quantity of high value added items like knitwear, bed wear, towels and ready made garments, Pakistan can only manage to sustain the fixed amount of share of high value added items in exports in place of increasing its share in total exports. As evident from the table given below, the share of high value added items remained in the band of 50 to 60 percent share since 2001‐2002. Furthermore this overall trend began to deteriorate after its peak year of 2005‐06 when the share of value added items was 58.0 percent in total textile exports and it is continuously on decline since and stood at 52.7 percent share in overall textile manufacturer during July‐March 2009‐10 over 54.4 percent in same period last year (see Table 7.3). Table 7.3: Export of Textile Manufactures (% Share) Item 01‐02 02‐03 03‐04 04‐05 05‐06 06‐07 07‐08 08‐09 Cotton Yarn Cotton Cloth Knitwear Bed wear Towels Tents, Canvas & Tarpaulin Readymade 16.1 19.6 14.6 15.9 4.6 0.9 12.9 18.6 15.9 18.4 5.2 1.0 14.0 21.3 18.1 17.2 5.0 0.9 12.7 23.3 18.9 16.4 5.9 0.8 13.7 21.6 17.6 20.8 5.8 0.3 13.6 19.3 18.7 19.0 5.7 0.7 12.5 19.4 18.0 18.3 5.9 0.7 11.7 20.5 18.2 18.2 6.7 0.6 July‐March 08‐09 09‐10* 11.6 14.1 21.0 17.2 18.3 17.0 17.8 16.6 6.6 6.5 0.7 0.6 15.1 15.1 12.4 12.9 13.8 13.2 14.0 12.9 12.7 12.6 93 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 7.3: Export of Textile Manufactures (% Share) Item Garments Synthetic Textiles Made up Articles Others *Provisional 01‐02 02‐03 03‐04 04‐05 05‐06 06‐07 07‐08 08‐09 7.1 6.1 ‐ 100 7.9 5.0 ‐ 100 5.9 5.2 ‐ 100 3.5 5.5 0.1 100 2.0 4.3 0.1 100 4.0 4.5 1.3 100 3.9 5.2 2.1 100 2.9 5.0 3.3 100 July‐March 08‐09 09‐10* 2.6 4.4 5.0 5.2 3.7 5.8 100 100 Source: FBS 7.2‐b Composition of Exports The share of primary, semi‐manufactured and manufactured products in composition of exports since 1994‐95 have remained more or less stagnant. As approximately three fourths of Pakistan’s exports constitute of manufactured goods (see Table 7.4).This stagnation indicates slow movement towards sophistication through technology and innovation. More recently, the increase in primary commodities exports owes to improved production of cotton crops and amidst of revival of external demand. While a dip in manufactured good can be attributed to lower prices on external factor and on domestic front, the main factor is energy crisis faced by the export sector. Table 7.4: Composition of Exports Year (% Share) 12 11 10 Manufactured Goods 77 75 74 9 11 74 71 Primary Commodities Semi‐Manufactures 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 July‐March 2008‐09 2009‐10* * Provisional 11 14 16 17 18 Total 100 100 100 100 100 Source: FBS 7.2‐c Direction of Exports While the composition of exports remains fairly concentrated, Pakistan has achieved significant geographical diversification of its exports. During the year 2001‐2002, 54.9 percent of Pakistani exports were concentrated in seven major exports markets (USA, Germany, Japan, UK, Hong Kong, Dubai and Saudi Arabia) and the remaining exports share of 45.1 percent consists of all other countries. This concentration of export market continuously declined since 2001‐2002 and presently 31.6 percent share of exports is held by six major countries (see Table 7.5) with the remaining countries making up 68.4 percent of exports. Notwithstanding the reliance on fewer exports markets as evident from the percentage share of different export destinations during July‐March 2009‐10. Which suggests that the USA captured the 17.3 percent share in all export markets of country and still continued to sustain the largest export market of the country. 94 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Balance of Payments Table 7.5: Major Exports Markets (Percentage Share) Country 01‐02 02‐03 03‐04 04‐05 05‐06 06‐07 07‐08 08‐09 USA Germany Japan UK Hong Kong Dubai Saudi Arabia Sub‐Total Other Countries Total *Provisional 24.7 4.9 1.8 7.2 4.8 7.9 3.6 54.9 23.5 5.2 1.3 7.1 4.6 9.0 4.3 55.0 23.9 4.9 1.1 7.6 4.7 7.3 2.8 52.3 23.9 4.8 1.1 6.2 3.9 3.3 2.5 45.7 25.5 4.2 0.8 5.4 4.1 5.6 2.0 47.6 24.6 4.1 0.7 5.6 3.9 1.1 1.7 41.7 19.5 4.3 0.7 5.4 2.7 0 2.0 34.6 18.9 4.2 0.6 4.9 2.1 0 2.6 33.3 July‐March 08‐09 09‐10* 18.6 17.3 4.3 4.2 0.7 0.5 4.8 5.5 2.2 2.1 0 0 2.4 2.0 33.0 31.6 45.1 45.0 47.7 54.3 52.4 58.3 65.4 66.7 67.0 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: FBS 68.4 7.3 Imports Import growth during July‐April 2009‐10 declined by 2.8 percent against the corresponding period last year. Lower international prices, compressed domestic demand, exchange rate depreciation and improved production of cotton crops remained the major factors behind the overall decline in import bill. Among the major import groups: food, machinery and telecom groups witnessed a decline during July‐April 2009‐10 while Petroleum, consumer durables, raw materials and other items groups witnessed an increase in growth during the period under review (see Table 7.6). Food group imports declined by 21.3 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the corresponding period last year, on absolute terms food group declined by $ 754.9 million against the $ 107.9 million contraction in the corresponding period of July‐April 2009‐10. In addition to that, food group witnessed highest decline in absolute terms during the period. This decline in food group is mainly attributed to reduced quantum import as unit values of most of food items remained higher during July‐April 2009‐10 over same period last year. Within food group items, wheat import bill witnessed the maximum decline of 96.4 percent on the back of sufficient availability of wheat in the country as wheat quantity import fell by 97.2 percent. Import bill of edible oil fell by 12.5 percent due to contraction in its price and quantity imports. On the other hand, the highest growth in import bill of food group was witnessed in sugar which increased by 591.6 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 against the same period last year mainly as a result of the efforts to improve the domestic supply condition of sugar in the country. Both the price and quantity effect contributed to this increase in sugar import bill but quantum import effect remained higher than the price effect as quantity of imported sugar increased by 430.7 percent and unit value of sugar increased by 30.3 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the corresponding month of last year. Furthermore, the import bill of tea, pulses and milk & milk food also increased substantially during this period. Machinery group import declined by 10.6 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the same period last year and witnessed a decline of $ 460.0 million in absolute terms during current fiscal year 2009‐10. The highest decline was observed in construction & mining machinery, which declined by 43.4 percent during period under review. With the major share of about 32.2 percent in machinery group, Import of power generating machinery witnessed negative growth of 11.0 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over 66.5 percent expansion during the same period last year which suggests accumulation of higher 95 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) Economic Survey 2009‐10 inventories during last year thereby lower domestic demand during current fiscal 2009‐10. Import of agricultural machinery posted an increase of 130.6 percent growth during the period under review with an addition of $ 101.9 million in overall import bill of the country. This growth in agriculture machinery is led by increased import of tractors and parts of tractors on the back of projects like Green and Benazir Tractor Schemes. Furthermore, majority of agriculture machinery consists of tractors and its parts. Textile machinery import witnessed substantial growth of 20.5 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the 49.0 percent decline in corresponding period last year. This can be seen as a reflection of the revival in textile related activities in the country. Import bill of petroleum group expanded by 1.3 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the corresponding period last year. This rise in import bill of country is mainly caused by higher quantum import of the petroleum product category which increased by 24.1 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 compared to same period last year. On the other hand, quantum import of petroleum crude category witnessed a decline of 9.8 percent during the period under consideration. The decline in petroleum crude was mainly caused by circular debt problem faced by refineries thereby causing an increased import of petroleum products. Beside that, higher quantum import effect in the overall increase of import bill is also evident from falling unit values of items in petroleum group as petroleum products and petroleum crude categories witnessed a decline of 7.3 percent and 8.4 percent in respective unit values during July‐April 2009‐10 against the same period last year. However, monthly trend suggests that falling oil prices started to reverse and unit values of categories of petroleum group turned out to be positive beginning in December 2009. Furthermore, in the month of April 2010, the import prices of petroleum products and petroleum crude witnessed an increase of 62.3 percent and 79.7 percent respectively. Fig 4: Trend in Oil Prices (Monthly Average) 135 115 $/Brl 95 75 55 Source: World Bank Apr Jan 10 Oct Jul Apr Jan 09 Oct Jul Apr Jan 08 Oct Jul Apr Jan 07 35 The trend in international prices of oil suggests that oil prices increased from $ 54 per barrel in January 2007 to $ 134 per barrel by June 2008. After reaching at peak level in June 2008, oil prices declined rapidly and stood at its bottom level of $39 per barrel in February 2009, and since than, the oil prices 96 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) 8 million during this period on the back of aggressive off‐take of fertilizers by farmers.0 1. Machinery Other Machinery C.4 5.3 163. import of fertilizer manufactured remained the prominent factor leading to the increase in import bill of raw material group. Machines Office Machines Textile Machinery Const.5 591.3 7.6 11.205.4 1.Balance of Payments have started to increase (see Fig 4) .539.305.9 0.8 58.1 4.7 0.8 ‐1.1 13.895.6 ‐106.7 ‐29. This may be viewed as larger import quantum to improve domestic supply condition of fertilizer. The volatile nature of international oil prices indicates the vulnerability of oil importing countries and as being an oil importing country.9 % Share 9.0 246.2 27.0 67.7 0.5 2. which grew by 6.8 199.com.6 percent and 85.6 21.3 676. Table 7.8 193.4 69.0 Absolute Increase ‐754.8 35. Within road motor vehicles.1 37.6 ‐150.1 180.8 28. During July‐April 2009‐10 import group of raw material witnessed a growth rate of 1.4 60.7 198.2 187. & Mining Mach.2 0.3 % Change ‐21.5 percent.336.6 28.355.5 130.4 ‐12.5 20.9 8. the highest decline was observed in telecom sector.5 101.6 4.785.9 ‐508.7 579.7 4.4 million during July‐April 2009‐10.6 percent during period under review.5 ‐43.017.9 183.6 percent during the period. Food Group Milk & milk food Wheat Unmilled Dry fruits Tea Spices Edible Oil (Soybean & Palm Oil) Sugar Pulses All Other Food Items B. This increase was mainly driven by higher quantity import of gold.9 4.2 3.612.845.118. Pakistan is no exception.5 209. Among all major import groups.6 ‐27. Machinery Group Power Gen.8 2.3 15. which declined by 30.0 8.6 1.6 101. Aircraft Ships and Boats Agri.1 29.018.252. Within raw material group.accountancy.9 2.407.2 0.4 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over same period last year. This decline in telecom sector shows the saturation in telecom market.4 379.1 0. As import of fertilizer manufactured on absolute terms increased by $ 196.5 692.6 ‐96.0 ‐13. Petroleum Group Petroleum Products ($ Million) July‐April 2008‐09 2009‐10 3.6 ‐10.6 4.pk) .4 1.0 ‐154.8 0.8 0.6 ‐3.1 139.4 221.8 1. As a result.1 0.7 percent during the period under review as import of cars and motor cycles categories increased by 76.4 52.0 227.8 67.055. Maximum increase among all major import groups has been witnessed in consumer durable group.9 18. Which grew by 267. the import of CKD kits increased by 63.9 1.053. This rise is mainly led by increase in domestic demand of road vehicle import which exhibits a growth rate of 25.3 ‐2.9 4.3 ‐460.7 191.1 percent during period under review.8 0.4 869.6 1.7 3.7 percent during July‐April 2009‐10.4 3.2 78.6 ‐11. sale and production of cars and motor cycles also increased thereby import of Rubber Tyres & Tubes group witness an increase of 21. Import of gold increased from $ 31.9 97 published by Accountancy (www.0 185.0 63.9 215.5 1.6: Structure of Imports Particulars A.7 million in July‐April 2008‐09 to $ 129.5 0.0 15.5 percent respectively. 6 ‐57.3 28.8 39. 98 published by Accountancy (www.658.4 238.6 20.4 23.5 45.pk) .411.3 ‐215.4 94.8 ‐158.0 2.0 Palm Oil 1.2 Source: FBS The effect of lower international prices compared to previous year’s imports in the decline of overall import bill of the country is exhibited in table below.7 ‐30.5 608.3 5. Table 7.1 Medicinal Products 611.3 1.5 Fertilizer 691.1 21.com. Import bill during the period under review could have been inflated by $ 1.360.8 Absolute Increase ‐591.2 1.034.5 1.5 948.3 3.7 12.0 28.1 9. As it can be analyzed that Pakistan gained $ 1.4 ‐30.5 % Share 10.018.4 1.9 6.7 2.472.8 1.1 369.069.122.accountancy.4 494. Others Total Excluding Petroleum Group Excluding Petroleum & Food Groups * Provisional ($ Million) July‐April 2008‐09 2009‐10 3.725.1 1.2 2.4 1.041.673.1 598.219.3 20.0 120.4 17.1 2.813.7 39.0 % Change ‐17.1 81.7 2.7 4.5 ‐1.9 290. E.0 1.2 ‐72.502.8) and its share has gradually been increasing since 2005‐06.6 13.7 3.921.6 1.1 61.6 8. Mach.1 Petroleum Products 5. fertilizer.4 387.5 18.8 1.0 17. & App.6 4.549.0 5.6 ‐63.8 Iron & Steel 1.4 691.0 Petroleum Crude 2.4 3.0 ‐2.1 16.018.6 Plastic Material 978.6 2.185.3 ‐420.3 ‐145.4 978.2 286.3 2.454. Telecom G.9 6. Road Motor Veh.3 1.4 ‐798.7 ‐256.2 196.404.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 7.9 ‐102.3 ‐0.185.4 241. Raw Materials Raw Cotton Synthetic fiber Silk yarn (Synth & Arti) Fertilizer Manufactured Insecticides Plastic material Iron & steel and Scrap Iron & steel Other Chemical Products F.5 492.9 million if the prices of items shown in table 8.8 ‐4.7).0 3.2 655.7: Import Bill as a Result of the Change in Import Prices (July‐ April 2009‐10*) ($ Million) Actual Imports at Last Commodity Additional Bill (Gains/Losses) Imports Year’s Prices Soya bean Oil 13.9 553. plastic material and iron & steel during July‐April 2009‐10 compared to import at last year’s prices (see Table 7.303.5 34.6 14.6 477.813.5 ‐16.7 ‐218.6 25.104.0 1.8 ‐900.185.5 857.904.9 million due to fall in import price of palm oil. petroleum products.3 755.305.4 ‐15.090.1 909.1 ‐258.4 6.6: Structure of Imports Particulars Petroleum Crude D.004.9 51.8 48.5 193. The share of capital and consumer goods remained constant during July‐ March 2009‐10 over the same period last year.3 3.7 ‐2.4 943.285.9 *Estimated Source: FBS Concentration of imports in terms of its composition suggests that raw material for consumer goods dominates the composition of imports of the country (see table 7. petroleum crude.193.2 527.3 Total 12. Consumer Durables Elect.364.0 71.5 0.4 90.6 100.5 3.7 1.8 be remained at par with last year’s prices.0 ‐6. 4 3.A.0 Source: FBS 7.0 12. Pakistan has witnessed an improvement of 2. Japan Kuwait Saudi Arabia Germany U.7 1. Germany. 99 published by Accountancy (www.2 4.6 40.0 100. country’s terms of trade aggregated to 54.3 3.S.0 6.8 2.6 59. Japan.8: Composition of Imports Year Capital Goods 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 July‐March 2008‐09 2009‐10 * Provisional 37 36 29 29 28 28 (% Share) Raw Material for Capital Goods Consumer Goods 7 45 7 47 8 53 9 49 9 7 Consumer Goods 11 10 10 13 50 52 13 13 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: FBS 7.2 100.6 60. terms of trade could not sustain the process of improvement which started in 2008‐09 due to increase in unit value index of imports and stagnation in unit value indices during July‐ March 2009‐10 over the comparable period last year (see Table 7.4 3. Kuwait.0 4. Although this decline in terms of trade during current fiscal year of 2009‐10 is lowest ever since 2002‐03.8 3.4 2.7 5.6 4.2 1. Malaysia Sub‐Total Other Countries Total *Provisional 8.9 61. However.0 5.3 60.S.5 6.6 7.9 3.6 4.4 100.2 3.0 (Percentage Share) July‐March 08‐09 09‐10* 5. Table 7.0 percent of total import markets of Pakistan consists of these seven countries (see Table 7.6 7.Balance of Payments Table 7. This improvement in country’s terms of trade also contributed in the decline of current account deficit during the period under review.4 Terms of Trade After witnessing the persistent deterioration since 1998‐99.1 39.com.1 100.6 12.9).A.6 2.9 2.4 3.0 39.3 7. U.1 100.9: Major Sources of Imports Country 03‐04 04‐05 05‐06 06‐07 07‐08 08‐09 U.7 2.9 40.5 percent during the period under review. during July‐March 2009‐10.K.9 2.0 5.1 35.4 100.8 59.3 10.7 100. and U. Data for July‐March 2009‐10 exhibits that almost 36. This showed the impact of decreased prices of international prices of commodity and oil.K.9 3.0 4.pk) .3‐a Direction of Imports Most of Pakistan’s imports are concentrated in few numbers of market in the world namely Saudi Arabia. However.2 11.3 3.9 64.0 7.6 12.9 57.4 3.6 6. Saudi Arabia has held the lion share in Pakistan’s imports with in markets since 2003‐04.0 7.7 4.5 5.5 5.0 6.8 3.accountancy.10).5 13.0 4.8 5.7 2. Malaysia. signs of market diversification are present as the combined share of these major export partners has been declining from as high as 43 percent in 2003‐04 to current levels.8 3.9 during July‐March 2009‐10 as compared to 56.6 38.3 of July‐March 2008‐09 thereby witnessed a deterioration of 2.6 6.9 60.1 4.8 percent in its terms of trade during 2008‐09.7 11.2 6. As a result.4 11.9 42.1 100.1 39. 9 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the corresponding period last on the back of 15. 7. This growth in communication services exports was mainly owed to step taken by Pakistan Telecom Authority (PTA) to curb illegal traffic in the country.1 percentage points respectively during July‐April 2009‐10 over the corresponding period last year. these sectors registered negative growth during July‐April 2009‐10.3 2007‐08 350.10: Unit Value Indices and Terms of Trade (Base year 1990‐91 = 100) Unit Value Indices Year Exports Imports 2005‐06 299. Decline in trade deficit is due mainly to a fall in imports complimented by overall improvement in exports during July‐April 2009‐10. Improvement in invisible accounts emanated from the significant decline in services and income account deficit with impressive growth in worker’s remittances. communication services exports exhibited significant growth of 80. Among these four groups. While transportation and travel remained major categories among the all groups of services export. The improvement in income account is based on a decline in investment income outflows & fall in net interest payments.3 percent during this period.6 55.3 54.9 Source: FBS 7.2 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the corresponding period last year. Fall in payments on account of repatriation of dividends.3 460.com.8 July‐March 2008‐09 454.5 Summary of Balance of Payments Pakistan’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) narrowed down by 65.9 828. Transportation services exports declined by 13.06 billion in July‐April 2009‐10 as against $ 8. financial.4 * Provisional Terms of Trade 65. services.0 495. As the share of transportation and travel in overall services exports declined by 9.4 2006‐07 310.3 percent growth in services exports and 12. freight on merchandise imports and lower outflows from foreign exchange companies were other contributory factors behind the contraction in the current account balance during the period under review. income & current transfers during the period. government and other business services.9 percent during July‐April 2009‐10.2 percent decline in services imports.98 billion last year (see Table. The deficit in services trade shrank by 39. The increase in services exports is mainly led by communication.0 percentage points and 2. Lower passage & freight earnings and reduced local operations of foreign transport companies remained the key factors behind the overall decline in the transportation services exports.1 2009‐10* 454. Income account deficit declined by 29. interest on debt. Specifically.11).4 790.9 808. This decline in CAD during July‐April 2010 was contributed by the improvement in trade. decline in imports and a strong increase in current transfers played a fundamental role in bringing down the current account deficit. The trade deficit improved by 18.4 632.3 2008‐09 450. 100 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.0 56.4 57.0 62.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 7.9 percent as a result CAD declined to $ 3.pk) .9 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the same period last year. pk) .accountancy.com.039 10.155 26.487 ‐3.567 ‐3.397 31.159 3.356 7.923 ‐4.136 ‐9.720 ‐1.058 474 5.584 ‐25 3.451 8.365 5.667 ‐2.257 730 4.344 5.307 4. Quarterly analysis shows that the current account deficit improved by 86.5 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 compared to same period last year.570 759 474 4.811 6.536 5.613 874 5.764 257 ‐5. Specifically.566 6.970 ‐12. these inflows are short term in nature and notoriously volatile.044 9.817 16.965 230 ‐152 ‐4.427 19. The major sectors that recorded decline included communication.252 ‐14.952 25. financial business and oil & gas exploration.106 0 323 Source: SBP As against the current account. foreign investment in stock market has revived significantly during the period under review.962 3. On the positive side.407 1.333 3.747 ‐6.106 10. continued in July‐April 2009‐10 as well.060 ‐11.002 ‐46 2.381 3. foreign investors’ risk averseness amid global crisis and severe power deficit in Pakistan led to significant fall in foreign direct investment.281 11.11: Summary Balance of Payments Items Current Account Balance Trade balance Goods: Exports Goods: Imports Services Balance Services: Credit Services: Debit Income Account Balance Income: Credit Income: Debit Current Transfers Net Of which: Workers remittances Capital & Financial Account Capital Account.691 0 ($ Million) July‐April 2008‐09 2009‐10* ‐8.589 4.073 2. surplus in financial account fell drastically in the subsequent quarters.495 3.046 7.131 ‐75 5.056 3. and turned to deficit in third quarter of 2009‐10.094 15. financial account surplus recorded a year‐on‐year fall of 14. However.773 ‐1.0 percent in the first quarter 101 published by Accountancy (www.627 20.126 3. The fall in financial account surplus would have been even higher.249 ‐3.962 138 ‐3. Moreover.982 ‐3.874 ‐9.605 6.218 ‐1. The deficit in the financial account is attributed to lower loan inflows and the maturity of sovereign financial instrument (Sukuk worth $ 600 million).056 ‐635 3. Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment in Pakistan Portfolio Investment (Net) Other Investment Net Errors and Omissions Overall Balance Reserves and Related Items Reserve Assets Use of Fund Credit and Loans Exceptional Financing *: Provisional July‐June 2007‐08 2008‐09 ‐13.942 162 239 4.457 ‐3.257 ‐730 496 ‐2.426 3.761 1.538 ‐173 0 7. which emerged in 2007‐08.410 32 2.205 1.121 35. The quarterly trend shows that after recording surplus in first quarter of 2009‐10.252 121 8. had it not been for non‐recurring SDRS allocation by the IMF.365 5.703 ‐13 11 3.163 6.143 1. decline in financial account surplus.476 11.Balance of Payments Table 7. This situation further deteriorated in the current fiscal year owing to a combination of internal factors like energy crises and law & order situation along with external factors of global economic slowdown.7 percent on the back of global financial crisis thereby making it difficult for remittance senders (see Fig 6). monthly CAB exhibits the deficit in the remaining months of current fiscal year 2009‐10 while a deficit of $ 185 million has been witnessed in April 2010. 7.0 percent in 6000 year 2009 due to global financial and economic crises.2 percent in 2008‐09 compared to Source: SBP same period last year. In addition to that the year‐on‐year deterioration in later period was also owed to elimination of base effect. As after 0 growing at an average rate of 61. 7.1 percent in overall FDI in July‐April 2009‐10. Specifically. As the year‐on‐year CAD in second quarter (October‐December 2009) improved by 57. Pakistan also witnessed the declining FDI according to global 1000 FDIs trend during the period under review. While the third quarter (January‐March) of the year 2009‐10 exhibits a deterioration of 36. However.accountancy.5‐a Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) US$ million According to UNCTAD. Fall in invisible surplus and increase in imports contributed the major role in the overall quarterly position during the period under review. This performance mainly resulted due to law and order situation for oil and gas exploration. the global inflows of foreign Fig 5: Foreign Direct Investment direct investment declined by close to 40. growth in world remittances during 2009 declined by 6. However. However.0 percent per annum for four years. In spite of that the process of improvement in current account deficit slowed down in remaining period of the year.0 percent during the period. higher uncertainty & risk aversion behaviour and reduced 3000 availability of finance to firms globally thereby many 2000 companies reduced their investment plans.Economic Survey 2009‐10 (July‐September) of the current fiscal year 2009‐10 over the same period last year.com. number of countries received a higher level of remittances during 2009 against the previous year of 2008. FDI in the country declined by 44. Pakistan’s FDI declined abruptly by 31. investment in oil and gas explorations witnessed negative growth rate during July‐April 2009‐10 over the comparable period last year.5‐b Remittances According to World Bank estimates.pk) . which kept the year‐on‐year contraction substantially up to first quarter of 2009‐10. an improvement in the current account deficit for the month of April 2010 is estimated at almost 59 percent over the same month last year. The impact of this crisis transmitted in the 5000 global FDI through decline in the firms’ tendency to 4000 invest due to its falling profitability. Oil and Gas Exploration remained the major attractive sector for investment as due to its share of 34.0 percent over the comparable period last year.7 percent during the period of July‐April 2009‐10 compared to same period last year (see Fig‐5). remittances flow to Asian countries remained stronger during the period under 102 published by Accountancy (www. Nevertheless. Monthly analysis shows the in the months of August 2009 and September 2009. the Current Account Balance (CAB) witnessed a surplus of $ 10 million and $ 48 million respectively. The month of October 2009 witnessed a highest growth of 62.1 percent or $ 734.0 10.0 percent during July‐April 2009‐10 over the corresponding period last year.com. as a result.2 Others Countries 498.2 percent) and Philippines (5.7 7.7 * Provisional ($ Million) % Change % Share 1.0 ‐40. Nepal (13.0 percent and 21.663.9 percent during 2009 over previous year 2008 followed by Bangladesh (19.8 14.7 21.7 1.0 1. 30.7 percent respectively during July‐April 2009‐10 over corresponding period last year.0 Source: World Bank Country‐wise data suggests that UAE remained the major contributor to remittances increase during July‐April 2009‐10 contributing 22. and b) increased outreach of banks having arrangements with overseas entities.461.8 57. Higher remittance from UK seems to the result of aggressive bilateral tie‐ups of commercial banks with foreign entities under Pakistan Remittances Initiative (PRI) program.3 15.8 1. While some migrants found jobs in Abu Dhabi.0 20.9 UAE 1. With the exception of February 2010.264.355.4 percent).7 percent during the period .pk) .1 2.6 7.8 million). ‐30.1 1.366.0 20.9 million).1 481.2 percent). the concentration of higher remittances remained in the South Asia region where remittances increased by 4. followed by Saudi Arabia (20.Balance of Payments review. positive growth has been witnessed in all other months of current fiscal years 2009‐10 over the corresponding months of last year.accountancy.0 20.6 Saudi Arabia 1.0 million) and UK (10.0 Bangladesh ‐10. Table 7.9 6.461.0 ‐3.0 0. Within Asia. Fig 6: Remittances Growth in 2009 % Growth Remittances to Pakistan witnessed strong growth of 23.8 percent of total remittance.7 Total 6. While UK & UAE witnessed highest growth rate of 57.6 percent).0 Kazakhstan Turkey Mexico United Kingdom World Malaysia Thailand Nepal Philippines Sri Lanka ‐20.1 percent or $ 1.7 3.5 210.0 Pakistan More recently.6 million) (see Table 7.9 percent or $ 1.9 22.0 Source: SBP The possible factors behind higher remittances from UAE are: a) diversion of a part of remittances from informal to formal channels as is evident from trend shift following the crackdown on illegal fund transfer and asset prices crises in Dubai due to which investment was diverted to Pakistan in the form of remittances by Pakistani migrants who lost their jobs in Dubai.0 EU Countries 196.8 UK 468.6 100.9 percent in 2009.033.033.0 percent or $ 1. USA (20. Other GCC countries (14. Sri Lanka (14.0 734.306.1 20. remittances from Abu Dhabi witnessed an 103 published by Accountancy (www.525.2 Other GCC Countries 996. Worker remittances to Pakistan have surged by 15.12).525.12: Country/Region Wise Cash Workers’ Remittances July‐April July‐April* Country / Region 2008‐09 2009‐10 USA 1.0 10.435. 0 billion in end‐April 2010 (see Fig 7).50 percent on incremental amount on remittances mobilized above $100 million to $ 400 million. 1. business class services at check in counters. Channel wise data suggests that most of the remittances were routed through banking channel during July‐April 2009‐10. 0. 7. increased competition as like exchange companies banks are also having tie‐up with foreign entities. Quarterly analysis shows that bulk of accumulation in reserves was concentrated in first quarter of 2009‐ 104 published by Accountancy (www. Box‐2: Pakistan Remittances Initiative To facilitate and increase the flow remittances through formal channels the Ministry of Finance.0 percent during the fiscal year 2007‐08 .Economic Survey 2009‐10 increase of 80. Pakistan’s total liquid forign exchange reserves (end‐period) witnessing the significant increase in the subsequent periods of 2008‐09 and July‐ April 2009‐10 (see Fig‐7).62 percent during July‐April 2009 over the comparable period last year.4 billion in end‐June 2009 to $ 15. Pakistan’s foreign reserves increased substantially from $ 12. The major reasons behind the fall in reserves during 2007‐08 remained the net outflows from portfolio investment and step rise in the current account deficit led to sharp decline in the foreign exchange reserves of the country. This percent of reimbursement varies according to amount mobilized which follows as: 0.75 percent on incremental amount on remittances mobilized above $400 million to $800 million.5‐c Foreign Exchange Reserves After declining by 27. lower costs as sending funds through banks is free of charges and efforts such as PRI to attract funds through banking channel. This is because of fear of funds being stuck up in an event of action against the exchange company.0 percent on incremental amount on remittances mobilized above $800 million to $1200 million. After launching of PRI. Improvement in reserves brought relative stability in the exchange rate and subsequent increase in foreign currency deposits. This improvement largely reflects the initiatives taken under Pakistan Remittances Initiative (PRI) to encourage the migrants to route their remittances through banking channel. the Memorandum of Understanding has been signed between Pakistan Remittance Initiative and Pakistan International Airlines in which more incentives and privileges have been offered to overseas Pakistanis like one hundred free return air tickets through lucky draws. special gifts in flights. These incentives/measures are followed as: ‐ Increasing the outreach of banks with foreign entities. In adddition to that the narrowed down of current account deficit also significantly contributed in the improvement of reserve position of the country during the period. ‐ Transferring of remittances in beneficiary bank account on same day through introducing the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS).0 percent on total remittances mobilized above $1200 million. More recently. This improved position of reserves benefited from lower current account deficit and higher remittances. the recovery in the reserves during 2008‐09 was contributed by inflows from IMF following Pakistan’s entry into a macroeconomic stablization program and than after adition from other agencies’ capital inflow in the country. business class lounges and excess baggage allowance.accountancy.pk) . Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and State Bank of Pakistan took the initiative of launching Pakistan Remittance Initiative (PRI) through which different incentive have been offered in fiscal year 2009‐10 to sender and receiver of remittance through banking channel. 1. ‐ Reimbursement of marketing expenses as percent of remittances mobilized by an overseas entity from any one jurisdiction. reserve seats. Furthermoe.com. Pakistan adopted a more flexible exchange rate regime. Fig 7: End‐Period Total Liquid Foreign Exchange Reserves 16.000 12.000 14.000 Million US $ 15.Volatility in the kerb‐market however.000 10. Demand for the US dollar in the kerb‐market was particularly high in January and February 2010. Due to Pakistan’s entry in standby agreement with International Monetary Fund (IMF) in November 2008 along with market conditions at that time. owing to the overall external account improvement and stable reserve position.1 weeks as of end‐June 2009 to 26. The reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan stood at $ 11. 105 published by Accountancy (www.000 11. Owing to improved position of reserves and decline in imports. consequently. while reserves increased only marginally in the subsequent quarters.Balance of Payments 10. speculative activities in foreign exchange markets and trade related outflows.000 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 Jul‐Apr 09‐10 Source: SBP 7. The rise in commercial banks’ reserves was primarily on account of increased foreign currency deposits and retirements of foreign currency loans.accountancy. which led to substantial rise in kerb premium and volatility in the exchange rate (see Table 7. country witnessed a slow down in exchange rate depreciation of 2. Increase in both of them was owing to expectation of exchange rate depreciation. initially on account of Hajj related demand and later due to shifting of oil payments. the import coverage ratio increased from 21.2 percent in the corresponding period last year.com.01 percent vis‐à‐vis US dollar between end‐February and end‐March 2010.000 13.9 billion in reserves by end‐April 2010. Rupee appreciated by 1. Pakistan’s currency vis‐à‐vis US dollar depreciated by 3. Pak rupee regained some of the ground it lost in February.2 billion with the banking system holding $ 3. After shift towards more flexible exchange rate regime.5 weeks in March 2010. lower current account deficit and reduced market support.5 percent during Dec‐Jun 2008‐09. The improvement in inflows on account of portfolio investment and workers’ remittances backed Pak rupee. This is because a substantive part of the rise in reserves during first quarter of 2009‐10 owed to SDRs allocation and disbursement by IMF under SBA. Pak rupee started to lose significant value against US dollar and it depreciated by 22 percent in the period of Jan‐Nov 2008.9 percent during July‐March 2009‐10 compared to sharp decline of 16.pk) . political uncertainty. Improvement in the SBP’s reserves during the period mainly owed to inflows from IFIs.13). More recently. This depreciation was attributed to factors like substantial loss of foreign exchange reserves.6 Exchange Rate After remaining at stable position for more than four years. remained substantial throughout the July‐March 2009‐10 period. Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) witnessed 4.54 122.49 123.accountancy.08 0.61 Source: SBP Furthermore.55 83. However.20 0. due to rise in inflationary pressures as evident from the 8.41 84.08 ‐0.41 November 83. The overall objective of the STPF is to achieve sustainable high economic growth through exports with the help of policy and support interventions by the government. Table 7.17 March 84. civil society and donors.3 percent respectively against Pak rupee during July‐March 2009‐10.31 83. Euro and Pound depreciated by 1.88 120. Rupee’s appreciation against Euro and Pound was primarily driven by the relative strength of dollar against Euro and Pound.72 December 84.24 114. Enhancing 106 published by Accountancy (www.13: Average Exchange Rates and Premium Inter Bank Rate Open Market Rate (Rs / $) (Rs/$) July 09 82.10 0.86 October 83.20 0.40 August 82.8 percent and 6. Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) appreciated by 3.9 82.17 0.78 116.37 February 84.5 percent during July‐March 2009‐10 (see Fig‐8).18 0.11 84.com.35 124.94 82. Fig‐8: Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) REER Index (2000=100) 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 Source: SBP 7.8 Salient Features of Strategic Trade Policy Framework 2009‐12 Realizing the need for developing and effectively implementing a national export competitiveness programme.98 September 82.31 January 10 84.63 85.16 120.74 1.Economic Survey 2009‐10 The rupee showed relatively better performance against the Euro and Pound. the Ministry of Commerce has developed a three year Strategic Trade Policy Framework (STPF) 2009‐12.4 percent during the same period last year.97 86. The STPF 2009‐12 is based on six pillars namely Supportive Macro Policies and Services.71 118.22 82.7 percent increase in Relative Price Index. industry. and Pak rupee stability against the US dollar during the period under review.6 percent depreciation during July‐ March 2010 as compared to depreciation of 6.68 Premium (%) 0.27 Rs/ Euro 115.pk) . government announced 50 percent support for various quality.com. The major measures to achieve the above objectives are: x Support for opening exporters offices abroad. x Leather apparel exporters would be provided 50 percent subsidy for on the floor expert advisory/consultancy and matching grant to establish design studios or design centres in their factories. they would also be exempted from customs duty and sales tax. The support was progressively increased to 100 percent of the cost of certification.pk) . Likewise. engineering units would be allowed this facility on export of 80 percent of their production. export of their old/obsolete machinery for trade in with new. obsolete machinery.0 percent and 13. the import of old & used computer components would be allowed. a special fund would be created for product development & marketing for light engineering sector. x Processed food exports would be supported initially by reimbursing research &development cost at 6 percent of the exports. x In order to encourage use of computers by low income segment of population. Product and Market Diversification and Making Trade Work for the Sustainable Development in Pakistan. x Sharing 25 percent financial cost of setting up of design centres and labs in the individual tanneries. refurbished or upgraded machinery would also be allowed. Moreover. environmental and social certifications.0 percent for each of the successive years. sports goods & cutlery sector would be granted 25 percent subsidy on brand promotional expenses like advertisement in recognized trade journals.accountancy. x It is proposed that surgical instruments.Balance of Payments Product Sophistication level in Pakistan’s Exports. certification cost etc. refurbished and upgraded machinery on the basis of trade‐in with their old. 107 published by Accountancy (www. x In order to increase the sophistication level & realize true potential of light engineering sector. x Limit for physicians’ samples would be enhanced to 20 at the time of launch with first shipment. After that.0 percent for 2009‐10 and 10. x The natural pearls and other synthetic or reconstructed precious or semi precious stones are being increasingly used in jewellery products. x Industrial importers would be allowed to import new. Domestic Commerce Reform and Development. x In previous years. Enhancing Firm level Competitiveness. x A freight subsidy at 25 percent would be extended on air shipments of live seafood products. Ministry of Commerce has set the export growth target of 6. x Engineering units would be allowed Export Oriented Units (EOU) facility on export of 50 percent of their production for the first three years. 035 -201 2.087 -5.451 -6.522 -6.440 4.com.ve = increase ) -2.o.338 5.031 -177 1. Private Unrequired Transfers (net) (Workers Remittances) 4.863 7.280 1.994 -2.048 6.658 -8. Long-term Capital (net) 1.837 -9.580 1.105 -2.952 -3.218 22.175 Receipts Payments Shipment Investment Income Others 2.740 -5.422 -15.249 4.113 809 367 2.489 9.826 2.116 3.178 1.302 11.758 5.889 11.208 -4.168 -1.187 2.140 9.159 24.706 -10.811 -9.600 -5. Current Account Balance 4.713 -2.333 12.614 20.337 -4.304 -7.536 -7.242 -2.794 -1.427 6.119 26.737 4.203 -3.805 2.841 3.922 -6.967 -5.142 4.495 -14.006 8.604 14.947 -3.395 8.872 Items 1.095 -951 -2.305 6.221 1.077 2.209 3.314 8.649 10.249 2.102 5.405 2.763 2.281 -5.341 4. Trade Balance Exports (f.678 -1. Balance Requiring Official Financing 9.153 1.259 -9.434 10. Official Assistance & Debt Relief Medium and ShortTerm Capital Other Short-Term Assets/ Liabilities FEBC.820 -12. Errors and Omissions (net) * 8.492 -10.389 1.647 17.401 18.352 -8.368 5. Services (Net) Private Capital (net) Official Capital (net) @ 6.1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 (US $ Million) July-March 2008-09 2009-10 P -294 -444 -1.644 -809 -2.914 4.144 -8.134 100 120 0 -460 0 -468 0 -695 -100 -826 -372 (P) : Provisional -818 -4.792 @ : Includes Official Unrequited Transfers * : Includes Private Short-term Capital -5.b) Imports (f.497 1.894 -6.619 -7.388 24.016 10.457 225 810 691 -892 1.361 11.568 -925 -520 -95 472 470 1.579 5.448 4.accountancy.700 -3.128 -3.022 -2.420 -4.918 31.019 7.137 961 909 -137 -854 36 527 -676 310 234 -569 3.394 -2.TABLE 7.494 -7.100 3.488 -1.o.126 -2.240 3.968 -10.928 3.530 -7.551 -2.253 -2.024 9.075 5.823 -5.027 18.637 -3.045 -3.303 14.551 -2.180 6.084 3.172 -6.323 5.033 -628 Source : State Bank of Pakistan published by Accountancy (www.731 2.753 16.237 3.643 3. Change in Reserves ( .200 1.207 -2.753 9.410 14. Euro & Special US $ Bonds (Net).396 13. DBC FEBC.051 679 -611 -536 -840 -334 -180 -317 147 -193 -83 559 -151 -68 -145 -591 138 -340 620 222 -55 335 -55 663 -55 1.109 976 -45 403 3.207 35. GDR(OG) 10 Exceptional Financing 11.348 5.329 5.562 6.645 -5.871 1.617 -2.451 -14.165 6.954 3.594 -5.841 -7.718 -12.027 -4.430 -1.894 5.pk) .618 4. Basic Balance 7.239 -13.875 -2.183 -13.381 -1.153 -4.b) 2. 878 -13.990 -915 Source: State Bank of Pakistan published by Accountancy (www.com.874 -9.261 -8.321 14.121 14.421 3.585 11.577 5.067 -993 Net errors and omissions Reserve and Related Items 179 257 136 -33 -107 -3.283 3.924 -2.310 -10.b 17. In Rep. Econ.pk) .920 2.536 -5.613 874 693 432 -4.421 2.250 General Government Disbursement 2.951 -1.045 -2.140 3.Table 7.403 -14.444 2.424 -7.276 8.915 1.936 1.252 (Millions US $) July-March 2008-09 2009-10 -8.accountancy.024 Services (Net) -4.056 3.o.427 19.131 5. Transfers 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 -6.016 Services: Debit -8.352 -2.278 20.302 -9.522 -5.417 2.163 8.252 6.923 Income (Net) -3.480 1. Monetary Authorities -758 32 560 592 -257 2.379 -2.537 Dir.970 -12.410 3.487 -5.586 4.073 Current Transfer (Net) 10.186 9.046 -7.407 -3.724 304 121 474 138 187 Financial Account 9.131 -1.613 2.175 1.404 1.851 3.989 -35.907 Services: Credit 4. 5.972 8.582 -22.389 -1.106 2.042 1.111 Goods: Export f.923 -4.354 2.397 -31. Invest.589 4.554 Capital Account Other Investment Assets Other Investment Liab.700 1.389 Goods: Imports f.702 -7.281 -4.582 -3.2 SUMMARY OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Item Current account balance Current account balance without off.497 Capital Account and Financial Account 10.802 -4.263 Amortization -1.732 2.o.268 Income: Credit Income: Debit of Which: Interest Payments 940 1.747 -24.457 -3.b -26.170 -6.415 -1 490 -1 -1 1.365 3.476 11.711 -14.381 -2.720 3.031 -1.060 4.140 5.626 -10.413 Trade Balance -9. 0 7.9 2001-02 12.0 9.0 19.2 1.1 16.3 18.1 1.7 18.6 17.1 8.9 4.4 2.accountancy.8 5.8 7.8 3.2 4.3 1.2 3.9 8.1 1.9 3.3 9.4 21.8 2007-08 11.6 1.5 9.1 14.7 4.9 +3.0 3.7 10.6 2008-09 10.1 3.5 2004-05 13.4 14.4 11.6 17.9 3.9 4.7 5.4 3.5 2003-04 12.7 19.4 16. SBP & E.6 11.0 2006-07 11.8 13.3 13.7 16.8 2.3 9.1 3.7 2.3 16.4 4.8 15.1 19.0 5.0 1.1 5.3 7.5 22.7 4.4 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 9.7 12.5 16.1 11.6 4.3 3.8 4.9 8.3 19.8 3.2 5.1 6.2 3.2 4.8 +1.5 14.com.4 13.3 COMPONENTS OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (AS PERCENT OF GDP) Exports ^ Imports ^ Trade Deficit ^ Worker's Remittances # Current Account Deficit # 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 10.5 2.2 6.9 3.3 5.1 4. Finance Division published by Accountancy (www.0 8.1 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 13.pk) .2 13.Wing.7 16.8 1.8 10.4 8.9 3.5 8.0 5.7 2.8 3.3 11.5 5.A.6 15.1 4.7 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 13.8 2.5 5.8 6.1 8.TABLE 7.0 7.0 Year 2000-01 12.9 Jul-April 2009-10 * 9.4 2.7 18.3 2.1 ^ : Based on the data compiled by FBS # : Based on the data compiled by SBP * : Provisional 4.4 1.1 14.0 2005-06 13.4 17.5 3.1 13.8 7.3 2.5 9.2 10.6 11.8 4.2 24.2 3.9 13.3 4.8 2002-03 13.3 18.7 Source: FBS.3 5.8 0.9 18.9 2.1 16.0 2.1 3.7 +1.5 7.7 17.9 5.1 4.4 12.7 1.5 21.7 19.4 8. 384 30.04 3.75 -10.340 12.455 4.694 2.280 26.78 9.33 2.383.544 59.11 3.678 397. Wing.61 9.76 12.37 -6.853 -41.66 23.51 -0.661 4.06 -1.57 -15.57 -16.54 77.06 16.805 11.83 -3.028 205.029.212 -33.84 -54.91 96.342 443.832 -58.23 14.41 1.491 5.10 11.42 1.312 2007-08 1.958 2.741 325.96 18.052 17.23 95.707 89.339.85 21.569 11.96 -6.628 7.52 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 138.202 9.58 27.688 10.70 20.434 2.79 14.84 8.80 33.89 57.17 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 294.711.592 20.29 22.71 14.22 13.309 -3098 -3574 -1490 -1653 -1740 7.61 -4.076 -34.31 4.86 -12.658 -42.16 -29.24 -21.638 2008-09 1.723.07 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 49.24 20.482 68.375 10.223.70 9.763 25.178 -75.131 6.79 10.220 15.51 18.964 533.12 3.718 July-Mar 2008-09 1.778 -24.494 2.09 16.135 11.825 -188.540 39.22 -43.89 -14.368 -51.75 25.26 -8.688 -63.575 465.001 436.941 8.161 -81.813 6.75 -14.30 1.355 78.32 -0.45 -13.50 16.36 -58.551 135.10 Source: FBS & E.391 16.42 11.320 8.50 35.55 17.35 12. A.615 -52.391 7.151 76.58 2.07 20.976 19.768 2.173 171.17 6.372 -62.29 -10945 5.469 90.TABLE 7.499 251.081.94 5.114 229.466 2009-10 (P) 1.46 15.58 -20.26 627.07 -3.036 2004-05 854.75 23.82 14.160 390.070 2001-02 560.445 90. Finance Division published by Accountancy (www.079 -368.088 2005-06 984.50 17.709 -39.683 714.313 14.954 5.57 -12.88 14.707 8.841 2006-07 1.84 10.71 4.072 -1.63 21.30 37.11 38.114 17.31 10.33 -35.63 18.86 21.accountancy.338 465.619 9.93 -6.947 2002-03 652.com.33 16.08 22.622 -90.930 634.16 8.89 3.894 10.799 25.634 5.42 1.87 -7.991 2.852 21.92 -33.252 9.60 13.58 0.789 1.20 28.90 16.107 2000-01 539.162 26.19 12.09 14.66 59.904 6.570 -1.86 4.892 -32.357 5.442 37.69 9.70 28.16 4.26 15.28 31.036.15 19.07 -16.021.39 -0.851.4 EXPORTS.431 112.270 34.409 5.79 31.686 4.45 39.183 106.07 2.806 -822.15 40.034 6.61 -1.44 3.294 2003-04 709.70 -9.581 30.158 -726.313 373.35 10.70 19.118 9.17 3.68 204.315.12 36.69 17.93 14.85 -15.979 53.264 -33.906 -2451 -3158 -2663 -2917 -3415 25.87 -12.26 15.34 89.19 -18.31 3.728 177.685 5.03 209.77 20.50 4.17 10.382 14.16 6.525 -905.94 -4.76 6.564 10.388 P : Provisional -985.15 24.57 12.28 8.394 -1488 -2348 -3128 -1761 -2257 23.317 1.26 -22.176.67 9.30 95.160 12.30 33.07 -10.729 10.82 54.67 2.643 258.841 148.339 37.464 2.106 -45.77 19.991 1.54 17.56 47.889 258.01 -4.630 -73.23 -7.71 6.822 -1527 -1205 -1060 -3279 -6207 -12130 -13564 -20914 -17134 7.06 1.354 -29.96 34.85 30.751 -69.432 10.123 25.13 -12741 -0.282 171.250 320.137 7.078 897.96 13.29 -4.935 -2564 -1694 -1936 -2373 -1981 23.22 -16.43 7.834 -139.803 8.966 34.pk) .719 29.93 8.88 1.512.000 -87.46 -2.88 24.380 6.01 14.592 63.24 35.15 13.73 22.19 3.20 12.69 13.11 8.41 -24.59 32.37 14.622 5.18 27.598 28.62 6.451 16.37 32.37 -24.070 3.779 8.946 92.792 -102.52 16.09 -12.17 36.86 9. IMPORTS AND TRADE BALANCE Year (Rs million) Current Prices Exports Imports Balance Growth Rate (%) Exports Imports Balance (US $ million) Current Prices Exports Imports Balance Growth Rate (%) Exports Imports Balance 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 29.196.63 17. 26.26 224.O.28 90.72 301.: Not applicable * : Provisional 271.47 314.58 232.59 340.50 93.94 82.55 277.44 675.54 239.67 30.86 110.03 495.60 162.91 580.30 454.com.75 431.00 94.77 84.58 551.99 300.82 277.05 248.40 790.86 245.30 276.36 Imports 208.78 83. Manufactured Goods Exports 266.91 260.99 396.65 Imports 206.01 310.09 306.50 T.5 UNIT VALUE INDICES AND TERMS OF TRADE (T.03 298.85 89.48 134.40 249.T.99 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics 871.05 98.09 350.87 470.33 195.86 416.13 481.14 69.33 521.86 81.21 698.18 120.22 95.23 29.92 258.38 65.82 T.58 493.95 101.28 619.05 979.87 T.59 350.96 265.82 - 300.35 318.09 663.02 309.36 96.60 554.47 342.T.60 324.18 94.41 93.21 284.33 897.T.99 418.66 125.20 81.02 287.83 244.37 73.04 292.37 63.60 74.42 622.T.33 62.04 Imports 224.65 355.34 171.81 Animal & Vegetable Oils.00 605.43 78.11 259.00 24.77 271.00 104.68 288.90 559.71 84.59 123.14 297.87 169.29 117.12 Imports 198.15 523.21 643.68 342.23 334.07 279. Fats & Waxes Exports Imports 229.95 454.10 644.66 270.47 Imports 259.67 299.04 191.02 431. 94.01 89.95 - 873.36 390.31 450.33 615.80 549.52 350.59 289.10 982.47 323.O.51 282.T.07 362.48 - 341.08 116.77 494.26 48.19 518.06 80.T.66 50.32 Imports 248.60 387.38 278.01 538.89 76.54 .96 Chemicals Exports 276.67 653.64 293. 118.12 414.15 884.18 298.88 33.06 66.O.80 95.13 621.19 64.34 453.56 90.93 314.82 790.06 218.93 24.35 93.17 281.82 56.00 - 647.15 84.84 218.20 Imports 417.84 486.50 392.57 58.12 57.31 599.49 146.23 121.67 126.76 372.27 397.29 962.12 717.08 813. 94.56 281.O.28 - 793.O.94 - 358.87 202.09 537.29 579.16 80.98 1038.27 298.O.TABLE 7.97 329.74 208.15 960.29 471.85 74.42 450.15 294.79 131.47 953.82 103.35 73.T.29 64.24 763.81 799.93 430.60 109. 132.77 442.54 632.O.45 430.51 351.38 Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles Exports 263.71 404.14 21.29 687.89 614.84 392.05 806.55 333.92 T.52 82.25 90.10 82.95 T.60 299.17 84.42 54. 137.34 496.47 Imports 278.06 T.36 267.pk) .15 - published by Accountancy (www.31 460.52 598.45 73.47 111.60 98.55 73.08 758.T.83 877.75 389.45 43.40 632.20 T.68 195.09 85.63 373.53 Crude Materials (inedible except fuels) Exports 169.29 858.T.89 828.96 561.67 840.95 Machinery and Transport Equipment Exports 396. Fuels & Lubricants Exports 283.T) (1990-91 = 100) Groups (Indices) July-March 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2008-09 2009-10 All Groups Exports 253.85 96.95 249.65 81.61 313.15 385.14 76.85 192.76 209.24 72. 94.64 666.20 122.76 99.68 609.44 Imports 532.93 240.22 - 866.40 - 406.26 982.71 63.17 343.96 279.98 312.19 318.58 340.02 T.76 375.88 225.65 79.40 320.T.37 274.40 328.29 71.68 327.09 56.89 372.15 61.50 175.32 1090.97 561.97 115.70 860.97 110.83 254.65 171.93 365.53 445. 97.21 480.93 808.55 282.14 30.82 303.59 89.36 572.42 Beverages & Tobacco Exports 143.43 62.O.05 245. 85.24 69.97 427.87 158.77 733.24 659.38 942.85 484.99 323.32 611.36 - 347.30 55.38 135.34 102.O.41 31.54 228.75 Minerals.90 228.97 90.62 639.O.12 72.38 679.96 Food & Live Animals Exports 234.87 92.O.accountancy.81 525.13 94.16 135.61 251.44 T.09 79.76 87.10 T. 802 66.959 675.026.324 16 Jul-March 2008-09 172.683 70.741 325.442 37.475 9.972 261.018 11 2005-06 112.288 68.270 34.551 10.436 57 60 64 66 64 138.090 130.294 1.561 33.430 160.877 1.268 16.543 793.036 854.507 48.670 14 2008-09 226.469 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 25.930 127.567 21.371 8.498 21.710 837.340 9 11 766.029.196.342 443.428 897.366 4.TABLE 7.388 135.820 32.208 22 21 17 18 15 183.489 3.053 38 42 50 47 43 11.334 45 52 57 57 54 29.618 5.799 36.007 4.980 16.435 7.679 59.047 44 28 30 38 39 1.326 10.510 3.036.172 6.852 36.283 4.167 16 21 20 19 24 24.410 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 12.357 45.912 3.438 71.637 62 68 70 70 73 294.194 11 2003-04 70.777 554.355 78.902 4.339 37.841 1.388 (Contd.173 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 47. EXPORTS) (Rs million) Year Primary Commodities Value Percentage Share Semi-Manufactures Value Percentage Share Manufactured Goods Value Percentage Share Total Value** 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 650 1.088 984.507 4.163 509.029 121.731 36.163 29.214 15.963 10.320 3.280 26.979 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 17.176.889 64.323 83.789 10.645 26.160 390.483 106.702 18 P : Provisional ** : Total may not tally due to rounding of figures published by Accountancy (www.641 35 26 28 33 20 7.445 90.783 6.com.476 17 2009-10 (P) 214.911 321.113 19 19 15 10 11 33.452 47.070 560.120 274.347 74 71 1.361 86.499 251.133 21.838 44 41 36 32 42 2.718 97.678 81.622 4.925 23.602 3.378 20.294 12.592 63.288 80.143 53.068 1.268 11 2006-07 113.981 44 35 30 29 29 3.663 102.586 766.892 13.661 49 53 52 48 56 49.161 10.) 2000-01 67.833 16 11 13 12 12 63.183 106.253 11.651 19.321 28.pk) .346 11 2002-03 71.664 11 13 13 14 17 13.352 114.282 171.860 4.281 124.308 24 27 30 23 13 876 947 2.638 1.888 1.781 72 75 78 78 79 78 77 75 74 539.947 652.383.633 5.112 10.466 1.783 13 2001-02 60.796 22.998 3.294 709.139 16.624 24 21 21 24 25 78.933 33 45 39 39 48 472 914 2.716 10 2004-05 92.312 1.136 13.345 41.999 420.012 43.519 18 17 15 21 15 4.937 25.028 205.087 221.954 11 2007-08 171.728 177.583 2.748 62.824 9.313 373.612 15 14 11 12 10 11 12 11 9 389.286 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 4.accountancy.6 ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (A. accountancy.651 5.525 4.966 43.187 348.643 258.848 73.431 112.011 256.158 8.280 13 2.736 1.160 2.698 182.259 23.630 714.432 18 17 14 17 19 90.226 769.770 346.600 Jul-March 2008-09 572.450 140.035 441.398 13.329 1.055 61.322.882 17.806 2.344 25.847 122.453 108.419 44 38 38 43 46 26.889 258.6 ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (B.153 53.579 50 48 49 48 46 7.420 37 37 36 37 33 4.841 40.337 3.291 148.865 380.082 35 57.778 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 33.964 533.038 2002-03 220.562 40 39 43 39 41 16. IMPORTS) (Rs million) Capital Goods Value Percentage Share Industrial Raw Material Capital Goods Consumer Goods Value Percentage Value Percentage Share Share Consumer Goods Value Percentage Share ** Total Value 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1.921 2.768 72.305 75.702 28 39.646 30.775 8.372 15 14 14 14 16 53.624 1.081.966 6.929 10.021 9.575 465.223.482 2.842 7.709 9.359 28.167 14.512.234 14 15 18 16 14 397.152 52 42 30 30 29 382 367 830 904 1.618 146.261 1.023 15.001.551 135.707 89.861 4.710 33.353 36.336 864.498 48.TABLE 7.386 8.712 6 5 5 6 6 180.900 29.801 45 43 45 47 54 54.621 15.723.499 3.815 36.692 16.593 10.541 22.607 185.212 2009-10 (P) 593.975 6.479 20.925 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 7.792 2000-01 157.316 10.303 96.463 1.504 21.762 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics Year published by Accountancy (www.832 28.916 6 6 7 6 6 7.832 13 2.834 28 40 40 42 42 4.439 5 7 7 7 7 36.485 3.301 112.045 35 37 32 31 26 22.746 14.528 220.304 15.946 92.114 229.859 8 8 6 6 6 26.213 16.644 37 124.324 28 180.305 33 42 42 38 35 11.419 28.539 202.986 55 55 53 49 46 45 47 53 49 89.021.657 14 11 10 9 10 11 10 10 13 627.495 8.851.338 465.290 110.885 1.714 11 23 30 24 23 3.586 557.027 23.350 49.841 148.214 4.158 1.993 97.151 76.570 9 7 1.371 2001-02 176.179 82.543 50 52 267.195 33.500 21 16 20 22 16 20.388 46.079 1.970 16.519 2007-08 731.pk) .416 19.958 28 143.040 4.968 28 30 31 32 32 4.853 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 56.310 2004-05 441.584 5.012 27.216 2003-04 316.791 99.327 29 246.250 320.405 169.com.407 9.017 29 202.602 3.290 88.025 72.563 287.942 31 41.001 436.000 634.372 897.892 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 140.528 36 101.480 2006-07 670.072 2.478 36.991 267.982 P : Provisional ** : Total may not be tally due to rounding of figures 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 8 9 345.055 4.148 11.539 36 134.544 59.774 139.337.711.679 35 38 34 30 36 1.482 68.825 1.090 70.589 77.076.555 7.754 7 7 6 6 5 76.091 25 34.432 16.802 11 11 10 7 9 950 851 2.538 2008-09 790.227 48.150 8.719 2005-06 631.257 26 24 31 40 40 385 795 2.383 37.056 34.379 195.135 24.929 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 14.414 16 13 14 13 14 171.465 23.750 9.017 41. 533 112.444 15.793 14.417 4.226 416.532 295.494 25.485 5.050 15.855 714.054 10.862 24.512.204 24.326 41.963 2.317 34.387 44.825 26.996 724.165 233.419 9.701 103.042 1.762 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.661 16.540 46.801 57. Sugar-refined 11.817 12.988 12.964 15.138 11.667 44.486 22. Electrical goods 6.288 182.832 119.091 26.608 9. Edible oils 16.293 897.034 179.com.452 334.395 105.338 190.984 87.343 20. Million) July-March 2008-09 2009-10 * 220.095 1.759 16. Machinery (non-electrical) 7.158 18.405 14.917 607.985 27.547 96.917 237.202 5. Dyes and colours 4.775 8.611 1.570 2.042 572.812 17.910 296.165 48.002 21.080 33.333 256. Art-silk yarn 12.229 7.683 160.730 19.902 449.816 338.332 37.638 93.480 140.919 137. board and stationery 9.121 40. Drugs and medicines 3.953 119.7 MAJOR IMPORTS Items 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 1.965 15. steel & manufactures thereof 13.200 200.021.986 380. Grains.630 9.095 153 5.975 399.148 42.078 189 6.711.711 176.306 39.159 24.851.813 8.538 461.072 108.665 89.942 10.505 23. Iron.907 254.889 18. Chemical Fertilizers 5.212 444.366 14.551 16.633 6.463 27.882 1.061 12. pulses & flours 17.012 93. Chemicals 2.372 6.835 14.081.517 7.050 634.TABLE 7.117 230.578 24.101 13.757 28.152 16. Petroleum & products 15.323 356.718 33.618 300.587 39.451 10.991 2.272 14.476 73.587 172.256 140.929 31.139 486.683 327. Tea 10.904 7. Transport equipments 8.290 129.221 17.333 108.544 62.594 24.408 8.794 21.653 912 18. Paper.268 25.981 133.723.850 13.791 84.pk) .135 13.374 75.043 20.223.201 14.824 55.046 18.079 20.015 30. Other imports Grand Total * : Provisional 82.610 57.648 1.034 77.636 120.130 10.352 13.068 12.336 37.648 92.278 116.722 15.381 60.164 28.430 35.450 (Rs.673 11.806 70.263 90. Non-ferrous metals 14.707 21.749 18.641 135.375 12.896 2.895 96.427 738.accountancy.867 44.445 368.218 11.092 45.889 18.474 33.787 30.904 11. TABLE 7.8 DESTINATION OF EXPORTS AND ORIGIN OF IMPORTS (% Share) REGION 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 1. Developed Countries Exports 60.8 Imports 58.3 a. OECD Exports 57.2 Imports 55.7 b. Other European Countries Exports 0.6 Imports 0.8 2. CMEA* Exports 3.0 Imports 1.8 3. Developing Countries Exports 39.2 Imports 41.7 a. OIC Exports 12.7 Imports 17.9 b. SAARC Exports 3.5 Imports 1.5 c. ASEAN Exports 5.1 Imports 8.9 d. Central America Exports 0.1 Imports 0.2 e. South America Exports 0.2 Imports 1.6 f. Other Asian Countries Exports 14.6 Imports 9.6 g. Other African Countries Exports 3.0 Imports 2.0 h. Central Asian States Exports Imports Total 100.0 56.7 62.2 57.1 58.6 60.3 52.6 58.9 49.3 55.6 49.9 60.0 48.7 59.4 46.5 59.9 42.2 61.0 36.7 56.7 31.0 54.9 58.7 56.7 57.0 60.0 52.1 58.6 48.5 55.3 49.0 59.7 48.1 59.5 46.1 59.6 41.6 60.6 36.1 56.3 30.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.5 3.0 1.0 1.3 0.5 1.6 0.4 2.1 0.5 1.9 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 1.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.9 44.3 37.8 41.9 41.4 39.2 45.8 40.7 48.6 43.9 48.2 39.3 50.0 39.6 52.6 39.7 56.8 38.6 62.1 42.9 68.1 14.6 16.5 16.0 16.9 13.7 20.9 12.9 21.3 12.9 22.4 11.8 26.0 12.5 23.3 12.7 24.3 14.1 35.2 16.5 39.3 4.7 1.5 3.8 1.5 3.1 1.6 3.4 1.4 2.7 1.5 2.5 2.4 3.5 2.3 5.0 2.2 3.2 1.9 2.9 2.9 5.6 7.3 5.2 8.5 3.7 9.5 4.0 12.6 5.3 11.2 2.5 9.0 3.2 12.6 3.2 14.1 2.8 10.2 3.6 10.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.5 1.3 0.5 1.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.2 2.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.6 14.3 9.5 13.0 11.1 14.0 10.8 14.9 9.5 17.1 9.4 15.6 8.7 12.9 10.7 12.8 10.3 12.4 10.3 13.0 10.6 4.4 1.6 3.0 1.7 2.9 1.9 3.6 2.2 3.8 2.3 4.4 1.9 4.3 2.5 3.5 2.8 3.8 3.0 4.3 2.8 100.0 0.1 100.0 0.4 100.0 0.5 0.1 100.0 0.9 .. 100.0 0.8 0.1 100.0 0.9 -100.0 0.5 0.7 100.0 0.3 0.3 100.0 0.3 0.1 100.0 (Contd.) published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) TABLE 7.8 DESTINATION OF EXPORTS AND ORIGIN OF IMPORTS REGION 2001-02 2002-03 1. Developed Countries Exports 58.1 56.1 Imports 34.3 34.4 a. OECD Exports 57.6 55.6 Imports 33.7 33.5 b. Other European Countries Exports 0.5 0.5 Imports 0.6 0.9 2. CMEA* Exports 0.5 0.6 Imports 1.1 0.8 3. Developing Countries Exports 41.4 43.3 Imports 64.6 64.8 a. OIC Exports 19.2 22.3 Imports 36.0 35.2 b. SAARC Exports 2.5 2.4 Imports 2.4 1.9 c. ASEAN Exports 2.7 2.9 Imports 11.7 12.2 d. Central America Exports 1.0 0.9 Imports 0.1 0.1 e. South America Exports 0.9 0.7 Imports 0.7 0.6 f. Other Asian Countries Exports 11.4 9.9 Imports 10.9 12.5 g. Other African Countries Exports 3.5 4.0 Imports 2.7 2.3 h. Central Asian States Exports 0.2 0.2 Imports 0.1 .. Total 100.0 100.0 .. : Insignifcant P : Provisional * : Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. (% Share) Jul-March 2008-09 2009-10 P 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 58.2 35.5 55.9 38.0 54.7 34.2 54.7 33.3 51.0 30.2 46.4 29.1 46.3 27.5 43.9 27.1 57.6 34.7 55.2 34.7 53.8 32.4 53.8 31.5 50.0 27.1 45.5 27.8 45.4 26.3 43.0 26.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 3.3 0.9 1.8 0.9 1.8 1.0 3.1 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.2 0.9 2.1 0.9 2.2 1.1 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.2 3.1 1.3 3.7 1.2 1.3 41.1 63.3 43.2 59.9 44.4 63.6 44.2 64.9 47.8 68.4 52.4 67.8 52.4 68.8 54.9 71.6 20.7 33.7 21.9 29.2 23.3 33.7 21.6 32.0 26.4 33.4 30.4 33.9 30.4 35.1 28.5 37.8 3.2 3.1 4.6 3.2 4.4 3.3 4.8 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.0 3.8 5.4 3.8 5.4 3.8 2.7 11.1 2.1 10.0 1.7 9.1 1.9 9.5 1.7 9.9 2.1 10.4 2.0 10.3 3.1 11.2 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.1 0.2 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.5 9.4 12.3 8.7 13.7 8.9 13.7 9.2 15.9 8.4 15.7 8.5 15.2 8.2 15.0 11.3 15.6 3.2 2.3 4.0 2.4 4.1 2.2 4.1 1.9 4.2 2.2 4.0 3.0 3.8 3.1 4.6 2.3 0.2 0.1 100.0 0.1 0.2 100.0 0.1 0.1 100.0 0.1 0.1 100.0 0.1 0.3 100.0 .. .. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) TABLE 7.9 WORKER'S REMITTANCES (US$ Million) COUNTRY 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 1,252.45 27.75 9.86 33.12 12.96 44.24 16.25 12.87 516.16 60.35 105.07 38.74 49.07 17.26 137.02 150.34 126.46 1,238.51 25.42 7.54 40.64 11.62 60.22 15.18 10.91 525.94 51.67 97.76 32.47 47.79 17.50 114.02 157.80 119.79 1,093.36 25.92 5.65 28.88 7.13 47.85 11.85 7.57 493.65 46.07 99.36 29.32 51.12 16.73 2.19 101.19 122.49 95.75 1,317.73 35.90 4.91 27.71 6.90 57.86 13.40 11.52 554.08 61.49 178.26 51.99 90.09 28.96 7.22 109.96 141.09 114.65 1,227.28 33.23 5.67 26.06 3.65 45.43 11.72 14.08 503.22 64.44 161.93 48.98 81.19 28.95 2.81 109.74 141.92 106.19 1,078.05 29.16 3.59 18.98 3.05 38.38 7.97 9.68 418.44 46.11 164.39 44.91 93.07 22.90 3.51 97.94 146.25 94.11 1,237.68 34.31 4.14 16.62 2.65 52.40 7.16 12.17 474.86 61.97 207.70 75.13 101.01 28.54 3.02 98.83 166.29 98.58 875.55 33.31 3.46 11.93 3.09 106.36 5.26 12.94 318.49 44.67 125.09 38.07 70.57 14.69 1.76 73.59 81.95 55.41 913.49 29.36 3.86 10.47 1.58 135.25 5.60 13.29 309.85 46.42 147.79 47.30 87.04 12.80 0.65 73.27 79.96 56.79 1,021.59 23.87 4.90 9.20 3.93 123.39 5.74 13.38 304.43 38.11 190.04 48.11 129.69 12.21 0.03 81.39 134.81 88.40 II. Encashment* 215.03 323.73 352.20 548.37 Total (I+II) 1,467.48 1,562.24 1,445.56 1,866.10 * : Encashment and Profit in Pak Rs. of Foreign Exchange Bearer Certificates (FEBCs) & Foreign Currency Bearer Certificates (FCBCs) 233.89 1,461.17 331.42 1,409.47 251.87 1,489.55 184.64 1,060.19 70.24 983.73 64.98 1,086.57 (Contd.) I. Cash Flow Bahrain Canada Germany Japan Kuwait Norway Qatar Saudi Arabia Sultanat-e-Oman U.A.E. Abu Dhabi Dubai Sharjah Others U.K. U.S.A Other Countries TABLE 7.9 WORKER'S REMITTANCES (% Share) COUNTRY 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Cash Flow Bahrain Canada Germany Japan Kuwait Norway Qatar Saudi Arabia Sultanat-e-Oman U.A.E. Abu Dhabi Dubai Sharjah Others U.K. U.S.A Other Countries Total 2.22 0.79 2.64 1.03 3.53 1.30 1.03 41.21 4.82 8.39 3.09 3.92 1.38 10.94 12.00 10.10 100.00 2.05 0.61 3.28 0.94 4.86 1.23 0.88 42.47 4.17 7.89 2.62 3.86 1.41 9.21 12.74 9.67 100.00 2.37 0.52 2.64 0.65 4.38 1.08 0.69 45.15 4.21 9.09 2.68 4.68 1.53 0.20 9.25 11.20 8.76 100.00 2.72 0.37 2.10 0.52 4.39 1.02 0.87 42.05 4.67 13.53 3.95 6.84 2.20 0.55 8.34 10.71 8.70 100.00 2.71 0.46 2.12 0.30 3.70 0.95 1.15 41.00 5.25 13.19 3.99 6.62 2.36 0.23 8.94 11.56 8.65 100.00 2.70 0.33 1.76 0.28 3.56 0.74 0.90 38.81 4.28 15.25 4.17 8.63 2.12 0.33 9.08 13.57 8.73 100.00 2.77 0.33 1.34 0.21 4.23 0.58 0.98 38.37 5.01 16.78 6.07 8.16 2.31 0.24 7.99 13.44 7.96 100.00 3.80 0.40 1.36 0.35 12.15 0.60 1.48 36.38 5.10 14.29 4.35 8.06 1.68 0.20 8.41 9.36 6.33 100.00 3.21 0.42 1.15 0.17 14.81 0.61 1.45 33.92 5.08 16.18 5.18 9.53 1.40 0.07 8.02 8.75 6.22 100.00 2.34 0.48 0.90 0.38 12.08 0.56 1.31 29.80 3.73 18.60 4.71 12.69 1.20 0.00 7.97 13.20 8.65 100.00 (Contd.) published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) TABLE 7.9 WORKERS REMITTANCES (US $ Million) July-March 2008-09 2009-10 5,657.61 6,549.87 114.58 116.10 58.54 82.79 73.05 62.56 3.21 4.69 324.27 332.75 17.77 27.33 245.79 272.99 1,113.58 1,342.77 208.55 210.98 1,210.15 1,497.24 439.31 829.38 735.50 624.28 34.81 42.11 0.53 1.47 406.43 660.97 1,291.47 1,317.71 590.22 620.99 COUNTRY 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 I. Cash Flow Bahrain Canada Germany Japan Kuwait Norway Qatar Saudi Arabia Oman U.A.E. Abu Dhabi Dubai Sharjah Others U.K. U.S.A Other Countries 2,340.79 39.58 20.52 13.44 5.97 89.66 6.55 31.87 376.34 63.18 469.49 103.72 331.47 34.05 0.25 151.93 778.98 293.28 4,190.73 71.46 15.19 26.87 8.14 221.23 8.89 87.68 580.76 93.65 837.87 212.37 581.09 42.60 1.81 273.83 1,237.52 727.64 3,826.16 80.55 22.90 46.52 5.28 177.01 10.19 88.69 565.29 105.29 597.48 114.92 447.49 34.61 0.46 333.94 1,225.09 567.93 4,152.29 91.22 48.49 53.84 6.51 214.78 18.30 86.86 627.19 119.28 712.61 152.51 532.93 26.17 1.00 371.86 1,294.08 507.27 4,588.03 100.57 81.71 59.03 6.63 246.75 16.82 118.69 750.44 130.45 716.30 147.89 540.24 26.87 1.30 438.65 1,242.49 679.50 5,490.97 136.28 87.20 76.87 4.26 288.71 22.04 170.65 1,023.56 161.69 866.49 200.40 635.60 28.86 1.63 430.04 1,459.64 763.54 6,448.84 140.51 100.62 73.33 4.75 384.58 28.78 233.36 1,251.32 224.94 1,090.30 298.80 761.24 28.58 1.68 458.87 1,762.03 695.45 7,810.95 153.27 79.07 100.71 5.10 432.05 24.94 339.51 1,559.56 277.82 1,688.59 669.40 970.42 47.84 0.93 605.59 1,735.87 808.87 48.26 46.12 45.42 16.50 II. Encashment* Total (I+II) 2,389.05 4,236.85 3,871.58 4,168.79 * : Encashment and Profit in Pak Rs. of Foreign Exchange Bearer Certificates (FEBCs) & Foreign Currency Bearer Certificates (FCBCs) 12.09 4,600.12 2.68 5,493.65 2.40 6,451.24 0.48 0.45 1.02 7,811.43 5,658.06 6,550.89 Source: State Bank of Pakistan TABLE 7.9 WORKERS REMITTANCES COUNTRY 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 Cash Flow Bahrain Canada Germany Japan Kuwait Norway Qatar Saudi Arabia Oman U.A.E. Abu Dhabi Dubai Sharjah Others U.K. U.S.A Other Countries Total 1.69 0.88 0.57 0.26 3.83 0.28 1.36 16.08 2.70 20.06 4.43 14.16 1.45 0.01 6.49 33.28 12.53 100.00 1.71 0.36 0.64 0.19 5.28 0.21 2.09 13.86 2.23 19.99 5.07 13.87 1.02 0.04 6.53 29.53 17.36 100.00 2.11 0.60 1.22 0.14 4.63 0.27 2.32 14.77 2.75 15.62 3.00 11.70 0.90 0.01 8.73 32.02 14.84 100.00 2.20 1.17 1.30 0.16 5.17 0.44 2.09 15.10 2.87 17.16 3.67 12.83 0.63 0.02 8.96 31.17 12.22 100.00 2.19 1.78 1.29 0.14 5.38 0.37 2.59 16.36 2.84 15.61 3.22 11.77 0.59 0.03 9.56 27.08 14.81 100.00 2.48 1.59 1.40 0.08 5.26 0.40 3.11 18.64 2.94 15.78 3.65 11.58 0.53 0.03 7.83 26.58 13.91 100.00 2.18 1.56 1.14 0.07 5.96 0.45 3.62 19.40 3.49 16.91 4.63 11.80 0.44 0.03 7.12 27.32 10.78 100.00 2008-09 (% Share) July-March 2008-09 2009-10 1.96 2.03 1.77 1.01 1.03 1.26 1.29 1.29 0.96 0.07 0.06 0.07 5.53 5.73 5.08 0.32 0.31 0.42 4.35 4.34 4.17 19.97 19.68 20.50 3.56 3.69 3.22 21.62 21.39 22.86 8.57 7.76 12.66 12.42 13.00 9.53 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.01 0.01 0.02 7.75 7.18 10.09 22.22 22.83 20.12 10.36 10.43 9.48 100.00 100.00 100.00 Source: State Bank of Pakistan published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) TABLE 7.10 GOLD AND CASH FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES HELD AND CONTROLLED BY STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN ( US $ Million) Total Period June* December* Cash June* (2) December* Gold(1) June* December* 1960 246 272 194 220 52 52 1961 257 238 204 185 53 53 1962 237 249 184 196 53 53 1963 302 279 249 226 53 53 1964 259 219 206 166 53 53 1965 200 208 147 155 53 53 1966 265 197 212 144 53 53 1967 167 159 114 106 53 53 1968 182 239 128 185 54 54 1969 299 311 245 257 54 54 1970 287 184 233 130 54 54 1971 199 171 144 116 55 55 1972 285 286 225 226 60 60 1973 463 489 396 422 67 67 1974 403 472 336 405 67 67 1975 486 418 419 351 67 67 1976 614 539 546 471 68 68 1977 431 534 363 466 68 68 1978 1,010 832 696 444 314 388 1979 904 1,210 414 279 490 931 1980 2,019 1,815 831 627 1,188 1,188 1981 1,866 1,589 1,080 803 786 786 1982 1,460 1,527 862 971 598 598 1983 2,758 2,770 1,975 2,010 783 760 1984 2,489 1,715 1,788 1,074 701 641 1985 1,190 1,452 585 847 605 605 1986 1,638 1,446 968 793 670 653 1987 1,784 1,405 919 545 865 860 1988 1,326 1,258 479 440 847 818 1989 1,227 1,419 502 705 725 714 1990 1,451 958 766 277 685 681 1991 1,390 1,208 674 500 716 708 1992 1,761 1,629 1,069 950 692 679 1993 1,369 2,061 604 1,371 765 690 1994 3,337 3,922 2,545 3,132 792 790 1995 3,730 2,758 2,937 2,039 793 719 1996 3,251 1,780 2,465 1,092 786 688 1997 1,977 2,200 1,287 1,567 690 633 1998 1,737 1,737 1,125 1,122 612 615 1999 2,371 2,080 1,828 1,536 543 543 2000 2,149 1,998 1,547 1,396 602 603 2001 2,666 4,161 2,100 3,595 566 566 2002 5,439 8,569 4,772 7,902 667 667 2003 10,700 11,532 9,975 10,807 725 725 2004 11,883 10,756 11,052 9,925 831 831 2005 ** 11,227 10,933 10,310 10,030 917 903 2006 12,810 12,697 11,542 11,429 1,268 1,268 2007 16,414 15,536 15,070 13,804 1,344 1,732 2008 11,465 9,625 9,539 7,834 1,926 1,791 2009 12,190 15,149 10,255 12,863 1,935 2,286 * : Last day of the month. ** : December 2005 Source: State Bank of Pakistan (1) : Gold exclude unsettled claims of Gold on RBI since 2005 (2) : Cash includes Sinking fund, Foreign currencies cash holdings and excludes unsettled claims on RBI since 2005 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) TABLE 7.11 EXCHANGE RATE POSITION (Pakistan Rupees in Terms of One Unit of Foreign Currency) (Average During the Year) 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 Country Currency 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 Australia Austria Bangladesh Belgium Canada China Denmark Dollar Schilling Taka Franc Dollar Yuan Krone 19.1123 2.1433 0.6518 0.7327 21.3864 4.5781 3.8958 18.2623 3.3550 0.6628 0.8061 20.7982 4.5996 4.3059 20.8851 2.5433 0.7536 0.8559 22.5554 4.3316 4.5298 22.9083 2.9358 0.7673 1.0045 22.3750 3.6803 5.2534 25.4912 3.2639 0.8204 1.1185 24.6581 4.0354 5.9354 30.5300 3.4694 0.9128 1.1854 28.5449 4.6988 6.3775 France Germany Holland Hong Kong India Iran Italy Franc Mark Guilder Dollar Rupee Rial Lira 4.4402 15.0838 13.3928 3.2047 0.9611 0.3699 0.0201 4.8939 16.5751 14.7394 3.3574 0.9405 0.3507 0.0190 5.2027 17.9039 15.9401 3.9011 0.9609 0.0179 0.0185 5.9623 20.6804 18.4547 3.9902 0.9814 0.0176 0.0198 6.6921 22.9718 20.5247 4.3345 0.9783 0.0192 0.0212 Japan Kuwait Malaysia Nepal Norway Singapore Sri Lanka Yen Dinar Ringgit Rupee Krone Dollar Rupee 0.1896 86.4030 9.3259 0.5832 3.8505 14.8944 0.5831 0.2177 87.2127 10.1692 0.5741 4.0096 15.9865 0.5660 0.2843 101.5740 11.5288 0.6121 4.1305 19.0212 0.6120 0.3277 104.3749 12.1848 0.6178 4.6915 21.2485 0.6201 Sweden Switzerland S.Arabia Thailand UAE UK USA Krona Franc Riyal Baht Dirham Pound Dollar 4.1506 16.9154 6.6442 0.9626 6.7874 43.7454 24.8441 3.9886 18.3825 6.9407 1.0028 7.0923 42.0315 25.9598 3.8009 20.8077 8.0642 1.1567 8.2415 45.1600 30.1638 34.1379 35.6217 42.2162 EMU Euro IMF SDR * : Composite Rate 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 29.3472 3.4242 0.9513 1.1683 30.4828 5.2154 6.3310 29.3962 3.8557 0.9686 1.2952 31.0445 5.6548 7.0348 32.5665 3.7715 1.0285 1.2866 35.1611 6.2470 6.9724 31.3747 3.7942 1.0794 1.2934 38.4434 7.0601 6.9916 7.2196 24.4163 21.7451 5.0391 1.0894 0.0225 0.0250 7.1856 24.0995 21.3938 5.5762 1.1285 0.0246 0.0246 7.9685 26.7081 23.7008 6.0440 1.0935 0.0266 0.0271 7.9156 26.5372 23.5571 6.6573 1.1862 0.0295 0.0268 7.9536 26.6543 23.6655 7.4906 1.2529 0.0332 0.0269 0.3281 112.5264 13.2905 0.6102 5.3528 23.6411 0.6281 0.3376 129.6859 15.5861 0.6837 6.0509 27.4575 0.6823 0.3411 141.7916 12.5285 0.7034 5.8345 27.0557 0.7038 0.3797 153.8993 12.1327 0.6858 6.1371 27.6043 0.6869 0.4809 169.4791 13.6289 0.7503 6.3421 30.5305 0.7144 0.5109 190.4592 15.3871 0.7893 6.4483 33.1605 0.7026 4.1543 24.7362 8.2475 1.2174 8.4214 48.6951 30.8517 5.0484 28.0734 9.0606 1.2176 9.2329 51.9192 33.5684 5.5230 28.8164 10.4440 1.2176 10.6639 63.0683 38.9936 5.5260 29.3698 11.5178 1.1562 11.7623 71.1450 43.1958 5.9379 34.1098 15.5868 1.3438 15.9133 84.7395 58.4378 46.1616 49.6416 55.2477 58.4654 5.8006 6.0786 32.5174 32.5626 12.4882 13.8125 1.2313 1.3490 12.7583 14.0979 76.8085 82.4937 46.7904 51.7709 (50.0546) * 63.6850 70.1077 74.7760 (Contd.) published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) TABLE 7.11 EXCHANGE RATE POSITION (Pakistan Rupees in Terms of One Unit of Foreign Currency) (Average during the Year) 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Average (Jul-Mar) 2008-09 2009-10 47.6760 na 0.8723 na 53.5778 7.7526 - 56.1958 na 0.9088 na 61.9742 8.6128 - 58.2931 na 1.1423 na 67.5867 11.4930 - 57.2858 na 1.1333 na 67.0459 11.3850 - 73.7292 na 1.2091 na 78.5428 12.2480 - na na na 7.7127 1.3389 0.0066 na na na na 7.7772 1.3746 0.0066 na na na na 8.0273 1.5417 0.0067 na na na na 10.1246 1.6468 0.0081 na na na na 10.0276 1.6442 0.0080 na na na na 10.7858 1.7817 0.0084 na 0.5558 202.3816 15.6244 0.8169 9.1841 35.6797 0.5813 0.5216 205.3258 16.0515 0.8296 9.2141 36.4149 0.5872 0.5122 209.8118 17.0649 0.8575 9.7161 39.1651 0.5649 0.5711 228.2954 18.9021 0.9593 11.6417 43.6846 0.5676 0.8012 281.2742 22.3290 1.0285 12.4113 53.5502 0.7024 0.7918 282.1313 22.1965 1.0269 12.4051 53.1377 0.7050 0.9159 291.6088 24.3771 1.1136 14.2240 59.2139 0.7303 7.5195 44.2489 15.3488 15.6727 100.1672 57.5745 8.2949 49.0657 15.8027 1.4763 16.1586 110.2891 59.3576 7.7867 46.8551 15.9608 1.5005 16.2972 106.4344 59.8566 8.6143 49.2385 16.1656 1.6789 16.5107 117.1852 60.6342 9.8890 56.6736 16.6973 1.8786 17.0391 125.2948 62.5465 10.4330 70.0527 20.9341 2.2651 21.3856 126.0915 78.4983 10.5073 69.1958 20.7452 2.2454 21.1973 126.4971 77.7888 11.6943 79.8424 22.2838 2.5058 22.7531 134.6501 83.5628 EMU Euro 54.9991 61.3083 68.6226 IMF SDR 78.0627 79.3198 83.2470 na : Common currency Euro is in use of these countries 75.5359 88.5631 72.8661 86.9594 79.1763 90.7726 92.1700 98.6265 Country Currency 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 Australia Austria Bangladesh Belgium Canada China Dollar Schilling Taka Franc Dollar Yuan Krone 32.1607 3.9960 1.0826 1.3633 39.1719 7.4149 7.3987 34.2101 na 1.0108 na 38.8234 7.0613 8.2524 41.0626 na 0.9842 na 42.8526 6.9497 9.2250 44.7141 54.8940 0.9774 na 47.5567 7.1676 10.1527 44.7564 na 0.9121 na 51.4986 7.4161 9.7699 France Germany Holland Hong Kong India Iran Italy Franc Mark Guilder Dollar Rupee Rial Lira 8.3867 28.1084 24.9556 7.8720 1.2787 0.0307 0.0284 na na na 7.4990 1.2219 0.0073 na na na na 7.3970 1.2682 0.0069 na na na na 7.6176 1.3253 0.0067 na Japan Kuwait Malaysia Nepal Norway Singapore Sri Lanka Yen Dinar Ringgit Rupee Krone Dollar Rupee 0.4884 200.7861 16.1621 0.8033 7.0288 33.9503 0.6624 0.4888 194.5677 15.3944 0.7515 8.1021 33.3406 0.6057 0.5203 194.3681 15.1532 0.7802 8.2191 33.5098 0.5920 Sweden Switzerland S.Arabia Thailand UAE UK USA Krona Franc Riyal Baht Dirham Pound Dollar 5.9117 37.1824 16.3792 1.4000 16.7231 88.5691 61.4258 6.6910 41.4643 15.5961 1.3742 15.9261 92.7433 58.4995 107.4327 106.6410 119.4486 119.9599 119.0398 131.0320 Source: State Bank of Pakistan published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.pk) with a negative spill‐over effect on social sector and development outlays and a slowdown in growth momentum. have been a rude awakening for global financial markets. For developing countries. policymakers as well as investors are beginning to scrutinize more carefully the health of sovereign public finances. but also the composition of the portfolio with regards to source. Therefore.pk) . monetary. 90 Fig-8. most countries have acquired 109 published by Accountancy (www.1: Emerging Market Countries: Gross Government Debt. policymakers are faced with choices not only of what levels of public debt to accumulate. of countries in the Euro‐zone. 2010 ( in % of GDP) 80 Pakistan 70 60 EMC Average 50 40 30 20 10 Chile Russia Saudi Arabia China Bulgaria Belarus Peru Indonesia Romania Emerging EUR Ukraine Colombia South Africa Croatia Mexico Emerging Asia Thailand Turkey Malaysia Emerging LAC Poland Argentina Pakistan Brazil Hungary India 0 Source: IMF WEO Database In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown.8 Public Debt Recent developments with regard to the sovereign debt situation of countries ranging from Iceland to the United Arab Emirates. availability. but the exchange rate risk inherent in the accumulation of foreign currency debt leaves a country vulnerable to developments on the external account and in international markets. After a protracted period of benign neglect.accountancy. Escalating public debt does not bode well for macro‐economic stability and growth as it exerts upward pressure on interest rates and crowds‐out domestic private investment. costs and risks which are consistent with the government’s medium‐term fiscal. the higher interest cost associated with domestic debt places a substantial strain on budgetary resources. and more recently. and exchange (external account) priorities. For external debt. creditors may charge a lower interest rate (as is the case with most multilateral and bilateral donors). most prominently Greece.com. Lessons from previous debt crises are being re‐learnt. pk) . on the one hand.491 billion in comparison to Rs. pressure on budgetary resources placed by a heightened security situation. However. April 2010. have also played a substantial part in the overall increase. The problem is more pronounced in developed countries. specifically in the Euro zone. weak revenue collection. there was an addition of Rs. have led to a relatively rapid increase in public debt. By contrast. publically guaranteed debt and government guarantees issued for commodity operations are also not included. 8. a withdrawal of pressure on the external account and a relatively stable exchange rate. instilling confidence in markets. In addition. The domestic currency component increased by Rs. Further. Total Public Debt (TPD) posted a growth of 12.Economic Survey 2009‐10 substantial amounts of debt as a result of large budgetary outlays and fiscal stimulus targeted at addressing the hardest hit economic sectors. The stock of public debt does not include the debt and liabilities of the central bank. policy inaction with regards to rising oil prices in 2007. policy responses in FY10. 253 billion in the stock of 1 World Economic Outlook. Fiscal profligacy in the shape of large subsidies. Using this standard definition. This increase accounted for 71 percent of the aggregate increase in TPD. Although somewhat insulated from the financial crisis. medium and long term Public Debt portion of External Debt & Liabilities (expressed in Rupee term). in addition to a limit on borrowing from the central bank have all helped stem the rapid increase of public debt witnessed in FY09. 4. On the other hand. This increase in the stock of public debt is significantly lower than the rapid increase of 22 percent in the previous fiscal year.2 percent during the first nine months of the current fiscal year and reached Rs. Debt‐to‐GDP ratios in these economies are expected to exceed 100 percent of GDP in 2014 based on current policies. 631 billion or 16. the public debt accumulation in emerging economies has been lower. 3. Given the higher economic growth in emerging economies led by strong domestic demand.860 billion of end‐June 2009.3 percent to end at Rs. some 35 percentage points of GDP1 higher than before the crisis.1‐1 Outstanding Public Debt The definition of public debt used in the Economic Survey of Pakistan is in conformity with international conventions.160 billion at the end of March 2010. Pakistan too has witnessed a rise in public debt in the recent past. Based on projections for the end of FY10. which includes financing for balance of payment (BoP) support. Fiscal deficits in advanced economies have increased to approximately 9 percent of GDP1. most countries now face a daunting challenge in dealing with increased debt burdens. and reviving overall economic activity. Total Public Debt (TPD) includes domestic debt payable in Pak Rupee as well as the short. there is ample fiscal space to place the debt burdens on a declining path with relative ease.com. By augmenting already high levels of post‐crisis public debt.1). with public debt ratios of approximately 30 to 40 percent of GDP in these economies (See Fig‐8. Pakistan has one of the highest public debt‐to‐GDP ratio amongst emerging economies (as shown in Fig‐8. International Monetary Fund 110 published by Accountancy (www. 8. funds obtained from International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the purpose of budgetary financing have also been included from the current fiscal year. and efforts to eliminate the inter‐corporate debt in the energy sector. and the weakness of the US dollar against third currencies (including Special Drawing Rights. SDR) in which a significant portion of Pakistan’s external public debt is denominated.1).accountancy. The cumulative effect of the depreciation of the Rupee against the US dollar. 8 58. and limited acccess to multtilateral and bilateral deb bt creating flo ows has neceessitated thiss shift in finaancing mix.0 32.2 2178 1856 4034 33. Budget Wing g.7 30. This impact of depreciation o on the public deb bt stock has b been muted in the currentt fiscal Table 8.O.6 209 185 393 208 2 170 3 379 53./US$.P) GDP (in Rs.Publicc Debt foreign cu urrency debt which makess up the remaaining 29 perccent.1 45.3 26.com. b limited d capacity to o deliver on these debt.0 55.083 million) has been useed for budgetaryy financing an nd hence. MoF and DPCO staff calcullations The drying up of exterrnal funding sources has put a halt to the rapidly iincreasing expansion in fo oreign a project based. The SBA has primarilyy been securred to support the t Balance of Paymentss position byy supplementting the foreeign exchange reserves of o the country. A A relatively sttable exchangge rate.4 7623 8673 10243 12739 14 4668 1077 1298 1499 1851 2 2155 Source: EAD D.6 67.3 81. E.2: Translatio onal Impact on P Public Debt.4 56. Biillion PKR vs.3 40.7 * As of end‐March 2 2010 Source: DP PCO staff calcula ations 111 published by Accountancy (www. Table 8. con nstitutes a paart of the foreeign currencyy component of TPD..0 5 55. While the remainingg funds received from IM MF are reflectted on the baalance sheet of the centrral bank (SBP P) and hence. thee share of wh hich has risen from 53 percen nt as of end‐Ju une 2009 to 5 55 percent in March 2010.7 26.) 2337 2610 3275 1973 2140 2705 4310 4750 5980 (In percen nt of GDP) 30.2 60. FY1 10 Currrency Rs.2 p percent of its value during thiis period.5 5 62. It is inteeresting to no ote that in con ntrast to FY09.1 30. Out of thee total increaase in TPD. Dollar 14 48 Dolla ar vs.2 42. 148 billion or 17 percent is i attributed d to depreciiation of naational currency against the U United Statess Dollar durin ng July 2009‐Marrch 2010 as P PKR lost 4.8 57.9 24. Th his has madee the projects has resulted in unutilized lending piipelines of existing ments under the IMF SBA A program mo ore visible du uring the firstt three quartters of 2009‐‐10..1: Public Debt Domestic C Currency Debt Foreign Cu urrency Debt Total Publiic Debt Domestic C Currency Debt Foreign Cu urrency Debt Total Publiic Debt Domestic C Currency Debt Foreign Cu urrency Debt Total Publiic Debt Domestic C Currency Debt Foreign Cu urrency Debt Memo: Foreign Cu urrency Debt (in US$ Billion) Exchange R Rate (Rs.1 1 242 2 206 6 448 8 54.0 25. appreeciation of the dollar again nst other majjor currenciess. Billion) * As of end d‐March.4 (In percent o of Revenue) 217 201 218 183 165 180 400 366 399 (In percent o of Total Debt) 54.0 0 46. Rss.0 0 31.5 5 28.pk) . the t increase in the stock of TPD during the current year has mostly m been through dom mestic sources.8 45.2 4 43. Third Curreencies ‐9.8 45.6 3 2 25.5 54. As most of the foreign currrency loans are e comm mitments. It disbursem should bee noted here that only a p portion of thee last two tran nches (US$ 1.1 1 59. Publiic debt is incrreasingly com mposed of domestic currency debt.2 54. do o not come under u the am mbit of publicc external deebt..8 35.9 54.0 8 84. 2010 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 (In billion ns of Rs.5 60.3 Net Impact 138 8. Billion) Total Revenue (in Rs.0 47.accountancy.0 5 4 45.7 7 6500 900 0 FY09 FY Y10* 3860 3417 7277 4491 4 3 3669 8 8160 30.1 32. Huge repayments of about Rs. Fig 8. Almost 46 percent of the government revenues have been used to service interest and principal payments on public debt during July 2009 to March 2010.1‐2 Servicing of Public Debt Servicing on public debt has aggregated to Rs. On a cumulative basis. However.7 billion. Fig‐8.com. healthy investment in government securities and sizeable accruals in major NSS instruments accounted for much of the increase in Rupee debt. Billion 500 400 Cumulative Losses FY00‐FY10: Rs. as well as a weakening dollar in international markets. 112 published by Accountancy (www. The net impact of currency movements on TPD for the first three quarters of FY10 stood at Rs 138. As percent of the projected GDP for 2009‐10.pk) . Interest payments of Rs. 45 billion of the payment was on account of foreign debt. The government was able to access the debt capital markets due to favourable current environment and interest rates.Economic Survey 2009‐10 year as opposed to 20 percent depreciation of the domestic currency in 2008‐09. and movements of the dollar against other international currencies from FY00‐FY10.accountancy. 166. 428.5 billion have been incurred on domestic debt.4 percent. Losses during FY08 and FY09 were significantly higher. However. 1605 billion 300 200 100 0 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 * : As of end‐March 2010 Source: DPCO Staff Calculation The quantum of increase on the domestic front in the first nine months of 2009‐10 is nevertheless alarming. appreciation of the dollar against major international currencies caused a translational gain (reduction in stock due to exchange rate movement) of US$ 111 million or Rs 9.3 billion in the outstanding stock of foreign currency public debt. 2 Note: Due to unavailability of detailed data the currency composition is assumed to be constant for years before 2007. 8.2: Net Translational Impact on Total Public Debt FY00‐FY10* 600 Rs. this rising trend in the stock of central bank debt is expected to stabilize by the end of this fiscal year. The shortfall in undisbursed amounts of foreign currency debt was met by a heavy reliance on domestic bank and non‐bank sources. exchange rate losses amount to Rs 1605 billion or 20 percent of the current outstanding stock of TPD2. The resurgence of SBP borrowing in the last two months of the third quarter has been the principal source. the public debt servicing is now 4. 640.2 billion at end‐March 2010. whereas Rs.2 depicts the net impact of translational losses on account of Rupee depreciation against the dollar.7 billion were made to retire the maturing foreign currency debt. As a result. with the government’s commitment to adhere to net zero quarterly borrowing limits. owing to a combination of a loss in value of the Rupee. 2 Interest on Domestic Debt 2.3: Public Debt Servicing.5 Interest on Domestic Debt 428.2% FY09 20. July'09‐March'10 (in billions of Rs.com.1% ‐1.5 Interest on Foreign Debt 45.3% FY10 10. following a spike in FY08.1‐3 Dynamics of Public Debt Owing to a revision in the GDP growth for the last two years.3% Source: DPCO Staff Calculations 113 published by Accountancy (www.5% FY08 16.3% ‐0.7% FY06 7.4 percent and 57.2% ‐5. 8.9 Interest on Foreign Debt 0.3% ‐1.4 (in percent of Revenue) Interest Payments 33. For 2009‐10.3% ‐4. the growth of public debt has been fairly restrained.7% ‐0. However.6% ‐5.5% ‐2.3: Public Debt Service as % of Total Revenue FY05‐FY10* 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Source: DPCO * : As of end March 2010 Table 8.6 percent as of March 31.4: Dynamics of Public Debt Burden.1% Real Growth of Revenue [B] Real Growth of Debt Burden [A‐B] 5.7% ‐7.Public Debt Fig‐8.3% 9. In terms of total revenues.4% 2. from 3.7 percent growth in real terms witnessed in FY08.6 Interest on Foreign Debt 3.pk) .3% ‐4. coupled with negative real growth of revenues. a subsequent reduction in the pace of debt creation and a marginal easing in monetary policy stance have seen this indicator fall to approximately 46 percent in the first three quarters of FY10.5% Real Growth of Debt [A] ‐1.8% 10.8 times.1% * : As of end‐March 2010 ‐3. which has mainly been achieved on account of slow‐moving external inflows.4% ‐0. public debt as of end‐March has improved slightly to 3. FY05‐FY10* Year GDP Deflator Fiscal Primary Balance Balance FY05 7.3% ‐4.3% ‐2. Servicing of public debt amounted to 47 percent of total revenues during FY09.2 Repayment of Foreign Debt 11.6% ‐12.0 Repayment of Foreign Debt 166.8% ‐0. the TPD‐to‐GDP ratio has been adjusted to 58.9 Public Debt Servicing 45. this ratio in percentage terms rested at 55.8% 6.5 percentage points from the previous fiscal year. In real terms. led to a drastic increase in the country’s debt burden.7 Public Debt Servicing 640. The ratio has declined by 1. Weak growth in revenue collection and a faster rate of accumulation of debt during 2007‐08 led to a sharp increase in public debt servicing as a percentage of total revenues in the following year.7% 1.9 times in 2008‐09.0% FY07 10.3 Repayment of Foreign Debt 1.8 Interest on Domestic Debt 30.3% ‐7.4% 3.1 Public Debt Servicing 4.accountancy.) Interest Payments 473.1% ‐10.1% ‐0. Table 8.3% 12. 9.7 Source: Budget Wing.1% ‐1. MoF As GDP growth does not necessarily translate into a proportionate increase in revenues.7% 10. the burden placed by public debt service obligations on government resources is more aptly measured by public debt service as a percentage of government revenues.2 (in percent of GDP) Interest Payments 3.1 percent in 2007‐08 and 2008‐09 respectively. whereas end of year revenue collection is projected to grow by 6. Additionally. even though at a higher cost. stagnant external flows have implied a higher reliance on domestic funding sources.1 ‐0. efforts to decrease the fiscal deficit have paid dividend in the form of lower real growth of debt. as well as strengthening domestic financial markets. or deficit monetisation).5 massive impact on the cost of external debt in FY10* ‐5. With a relatively stable exchange rate.0 FY09 3. the real growth in debt has begun to increase marginally. The cost of borrowing from domestic sources has increased to 0.4 5. however.Economic Survey 2009‐10 As shown in Table‐8.5: Real Cost of Borrowing Year External Domestic Public borrowing reflects not only the interest paid on Debt Debt Debt outstanding debt. Further.7 ‐0.5 4. However.1 rupee depreciation against the dollar has had a FY08 3. the cost of borrowing for FY10 stood at ‐5.1 ‐1. which is usually negative. FY07 ‐4.1 percent in real terms. but also the price levels and (in percent) exchange rate movements and their impact on the FY05 ‐4.2 percent in the first three quarters of FY10.2 ‐2.3 percent.accountancy. Despite the dangers of excessive reliance on domestic debt. The vulnerability of debt service charges to interest rate variations increases with the piling up of shorter maturities in domestic debt. As for Pakistan. sovereigns all over the globe rely on debt creating flows. both external and internal. increased to as high as 3.8 ‐2. 8. extensive government borrowing may induce inflation through the expansion of money supply. which runs counter to its stated aim of improving further the debt dynamics of the country. total public debt increased by 2.7 percent in real terms. and the concessional nature of Pakistan’s external loans.7 percent in real terms. During the first nine months of the current year.4. The foreign currency component of financing generally depends on factors beyond the reach and control of governments whereas the domestic sources can be approached at all times.pk) .6 cheaper source of borrowing for Pakistan.4 percent in FY09 owing mostly to the Rupee losing 20 percent of its value against the dollar. this increase is partly influenced by lower inflationary pressures as compared to FY09 where the cost from domestic sources was ‐3. It must be noted however.3 percent. The prime example in this case is borrowing from the central bank (referred to as seignorage.8 1. leading to a decline in the debt burden of approximately 4.6 various years. that the deceleration in the real growth of debt was also influenced by very high levels of inflation witnessed in FY09.4 ‐3. The absence of efficient and liquid debt capital markets has meant that the government has been compelled towards deficit monetization.7 0. since it provides depth and liquidity to the markets.8 1. external debt has been a FY06 ‐4. The real cost of borrowing from * : As of end‐March 2010 Source:DPCO staff calculations external sources. 114 published by Accountancy (www. it is important to note that government borrowing through domestic sources is vital in stimulating investment and private savings.com. positive real growth in revenues above and beyond the growth in debt during the FY09 and FY10 has translated to a real reduction in the debt burden. As inflationary pressures in the economy were fairly lower in FY10.2 Domestic Debt In order to bridge the gap between revenue and expenditure on a government’s balance sheet.3 4.3 portfolio. Calculation of real (inflation‐adjusted) cost of Table 8. Historically. 299.0 1.4 940.6 1.) 562. 14.5 1. The domestic debt to GDP ratio rose to 30. During the first nine months of the current fiscal year 2009‐10.4 33.6 percent. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) conducted four PIB auctions in the ongoing fiscal year with the target of Rs. 4.0 36.2 35.0 12.739.9 31.1 32.7 2.0 10.6 (in percent of GDP) 6.107. FY05‐FY10* FY05 FY06 Permanent Debt Floating Debt Unfunded Debt Total Permanent Debt Floating Debt Unfunded Debt Total Permanent Debt Floating Debt Unfunded Debt Memo: GDP (in billion of Rs. Such a strong input suggests the untapped potential of the budding Islamic market and calls for a continuation of this initiative in the years to come.859.4 50. The contribution of permanent and unfunded debt has decreased to 17.6).6 30.7 616.3 5. An almost equal addition was jointly contributed by Prize Bonds (Rs.1 6.7 40.9 1. floating and unfunded debt.2‐1(i) Permanent Debt The permanent debt on account of healthy inflows in Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) to the tune of Rs. in comparison to previous year’s share of 17.243.3 percent in the domestic debt portfolio of the country.0 13.3 15.3 2.0 14.490. in response to relatively stable nominal GDP growth.2 2.7 billion (See Table‐8.8 billion was added to the stock that yielded an overall growth of 16.623.com.673.4 billion) during the period under review.5 6.2 32. As of end‐March 2010.903. 630.3 778.8 12.4 percent and 31.8 8.020. As of end March 2010.0 FY09 FY10* 685.4 percent. Meanwhile. High dependence on short‐term debt leaves the domestic debt portfolio exposed to refinancing risk.4 billion grew by 13.7 9.4 12.8 22.2 873.336.9 940.8 10.499.0 40.3 11.9 779.2 881. MoF The short‐term nature of domestic debt is evident by an ever increasing share of floating debt in the total stock.9 10.6 18.6 30.pk) .8 16.0 31.3 3.5 6.610.274.411. 8.9 percent respectively.6 17. 27.1 12.3 2.177.5 3. Table 8.Public Debt 8.4 14.0 Source: Budget Wing.8 42.3 percentage points over end‐June 2009.7 7.9 1. the outstanding stock of domestic debt stood at Rs.2 37.2 8. The market participated with vigor surpassing the target in almost every auction.6: Outstanding Domestic Debt. 115 published by Accountancy (www.7 5.3 51.0 (in percent of Total Debt) 21.7 4.2‐1 Outstanding Domestic Debt Domestic debt is broadly classified as permanent. Rs.4 49.668.637. an increase of 0.accountancy.0 30.8 17.2 FY07 FY08 (in billions of Rs. more than half of the domestic debt is composed of government debt instruments having tenors of a year or lesser. Although Ijara Sukuk (issued in 2008‐09) made a one‐time appearance during the period under review. 10 billion per auction.7 1. 52.) * : As of end‐March 2010 526. this fairly new instrument mobilized enormous funds from the Islamic market.7 24. the government successfully retired the maturing Federal Investment Bonds (FIBs).490.4 billion) and Ijara Sukuk (Rs.0 30.6 percent by end‐March 2010.7 514.0 10.270.8 percent and 32. The market p preference off governmentt debt instrumen nts. the losses borrne by the baanking sectorr on account of non‐performing loans kkept them aw way from reso orting to the prrivate sector requirementts.2 percen nt witnessed in the previous yyear has undo oubtedly receeded from thee rate of increease of 133 p percent record ded in 2007‐0 08.accountancy.8 percen nt in 2009‐10 0 (July 2009‐M March 2010) am mong the major categoriess of domesticc debt and ended at Rs.500 1.2‐1(ii) FFloating Debtt The stockk of floating d debt experien nced the highest growth o of 20.000 2.100 1. 2.700 2. greatly g assistted in augmenting the participation in MTTBs auction ovver and above the targeteed amounts. Subdued credit deman nd from the p private sector has been an underlying th heme of the yyear and a primary cause of h huge increme ents in case o of market deb bt instruments (PIBs and MTBs). Th he growth of 7. 2010.7 2 billion as of Marcch 31.com. Furthermore. 85. Bullk of this increase is attriibuted to hefty net proceeeds from Market M Treasu ury Bills (MTB Bs) of about Rs. Going forward. such measures can c be the building blo ocks of a well‐integrated w d and articu ulated macroeco onomic policyy covering fisccal.5 percent iin the stock of M MRTBs duringg the first threee quarters off 2009‐10 alb beit higher thaan 5. DPC CO Staff Calculation e with the po olicy steps taaken in the previous p yearr to draw a line between debt Moreoverr. adheren nce to volume baased auctionss and the deccision of cut‐o off yields for p primary auctiions by the M Ministry of Fin nance. which is a result of the government’’s target undeer the SBA of pu ursuing a position of net zzero quarterlyy borrowing ffrom SBP. 311 billion faalling under the ambit of floating debt.800 1. entral bank bo orrowing thro ough Market Related Treaasury Bills (M MRTBs) was lim mited On the otther hand. Bankss preferred to o lock in at higheer rates owin ng to a generaal perception of an interesst rate peak in n the market. With the gradual resu urgence of private sector creedit demand lately and market m expecctation of an interest ratee hike at thee back of renewed 116 published by Accountancy (www.400 2. compliance securities maarket. 8.pk) . creation and a monetarry policy execcution has im mparted certaainty to the government g These steeps include publication of yearly auctio on calendars and their peeriodical revission. ce to Rs.200 900 600 300 0 NSS PIBs MRTBs MTBs FY05 FY06 F FY07 FY0 08 FY09 FY10 Source: Bud dget Wing.300 3.900 3.4: Major Domestic Debt Insttruments FY0 05‐FY10 4. owing to o risk aversio on and absen nce of privatee sector cred dit demand.7 7 billion durin ng July 2009 tto March 201 10. billion) Fig‐8. monetaryy and debt secctors of the eeconomy.299.600 3.Economic SSurvey 2009‐10 (Rs. even thou ugh negligible.200 3. 6 percent are generated through Pensioners’ Benefit Account and Bahbood Savings Certificates carrying very high interest rates (See Table‐8. Moreover. composed of NSS instruments. hitting the budget by more than Rs.7). The Central Directorate of National Savings (CDNS) launched tradable bonds with the name of National Savings Bonds having maturity of 3. four are a 10‐year instrument and two are a 5‐year instrument.50% 224. however targeting different market segments.765 27. 400 billion.27% 12.) 8. 5 and 10 years in January 2010.7 billion followed by Bahbood Savings Certificates and Regular Income Scheme.35% 12.163 8. had there been an accrual accounting practice prevalent in the CDNS in particular and government in general.71% 11.7: National Savings Schemes Schemes Maturity (years) Savings Account Special Savings Account Pensioners' Benefit Account Defence Savings Certificates Special Savings Certificates Regular Income Certificates Bahbood Savings Certificates National Savings Bonds Prize Bonds Total 3 10 10 3 5 10 3.16% 124. 81. 2010 with an almost 95 percent concentration in the 3‐year tenor.89% 14. Out of eight instruments. Special Savings Certificates attracted Rs.com. the zero coupon DSCs of almost Rs.150 30.00% 125. Rs. 80 billion issued in late 1990s did not appear in the budget until they were matured recently in the last three years. 3. This may disrupt the ongoing trend of heavy investments in MTBs in future.047 34.31% 11.191 100% Source: CDNS.Public Debt inflationary pressures. 59 billion or 34.accountancy. however.67% 341.pk) .325 15.568 (538) ‐0.639 45. The NSS contains a number of instruments with similar features. These institutional investors also invest in wholesale markets and benefit from the interest rate 117 published by Accountancy (www.16% 352. For instance.1 percent during the ongoing fiscal year (till March 2010).367 171.045 19. From the incremental borrowing of Rs.96% 1.400 30.7 billion as of March 31. The stock of these bonds stood at Rs.527.458) ‐20. This cost might have been spread during the 10 year tenor.650 3.67% 118. Massive retirements in Defence Savings Certificates turned the net accrual to a negative Rs.5. Table 8. cash accounting and zero coupon in NSS result in inconsistent fiscal numbers. automatic rollovers. non bank institutional investment has traditionally dominated this category of unfunded debt. 35 billion during the period under review.650 2. MoF and DPCO staff calculations The embedded put option in most of the schemes under the NSS umbrella can be a potential source of severe liquidity crisis as a probable rate hike will immediately be capitalized upon in the presence of a put option facility. banks have started concentrating on the 3‐months paper.96% 14.46% 12.750 17. Budget Wing. three schemes have a 3‐year maturity.15% 222.100 52.50% 15.50% 3. CDNS was established by the government with the intention of mobilizing savings of retail markets.2‐1(iii) Unfunded debt The unfunded category of internal debt.10 Quoted Rate (in percent) Outstanding Variance Percentage Share in Total 31‐Mar‐10 Mar ‐ Jun (in percent) (in millions of Rs. has recorded a modest expansion of 11. 8.043 14. 172 billion.156 (35.105 26.13% 8. 274.) Year Domestic Interest Debt Payments FY05 2.7 428.8 3.3‐1 Outstanding External Debt & Liabilities During the first nine months of the current fiscal year 2009‐10. 2010 (See Table‐8.1 48.860.8 202. This weakening has meant that payments owing to interest expense have consumed a major chunk of limited budgetary resources in the past few years.3 External Debt & Liabilities Pakistan’s external debt and liabilities (EDL) include all foreign currency debt contracted by the public and private sector.5 * : As of end‐March 2010 Tax Revenue 26.7 18. foreign currency loans from multilateral and bilateral donors are contracted at a lower rate as compared to domestic currency debt (an average cost differential of approximately 1.9 Source: Budget Wing.5 FY07 2.6 FY09 3.8 18.7 29.610.2 41. 8.9 28.5 FY10* 4.8 14.9 percent respectively.7 25. MoF As a percentage of major macroeconomic indicators.4 4.6 21. decreasing from 4.5 23.7 25. interest payments have started deteriorating since 2007‐08.5 billion.7 176.com.336. The explicit concessional terms of loans (low cost and long tenors) contracted with international financial institutions or donor countries have concealed the inherent capital loss associated with foreign currency debt to some extent.1 24. EDL has been dominated by public sector external debt due to a chronic current account deficit and substantial foreign financing through loans from multilateral and bilateral donors.8: Domestic Debt Burden Fiscal (in billions of Rs.2 36.6 Interest Payments as % of Total Total Current GDP Revenue Expenditure Expenditure (mp) 19.4 23. the share of interest expenditure on domestic currency debt in total and current expenditures has become 21.6 percent of the total revenues have been used to pay off the interest due on internal debt.6 30.9 FY08 3.1 percent over the last 19 years).2 19. Consequently. Pakistan’s external debt and liabilities 118 published by Accountancy (www.490.4 22. 8. The ratio of interest payments to projected GDP has depicted a slight improvement during July 2009‐March 2010.5 19.4 18.9 2. The interest payments for the period of July 2009‐March 2010 aggregated to Rs. as well as foreign exchange liabilities of the Central Bank.1 2.pk) . interest payments on domestic debt in proportion to tax revenue amounted to 41.3 31.6 percent in the first nine months of 2009‐10. 30.9 percent as of March 31. 428. Public sector external debt includes financing for Balance of Payments support as well as foreign currency financing of the budget deficit.6 442.accountancy.6 15. On the contrary. Additionally.2‐2 Domestic Debt Burden Interest payments on domestic debt largely reflect the servicing cost on previous stock.7 2.177. government has historically remained favourable in terms of borrowing through these channels given the macroeconomic importance of foreign financing flows in Pakistan. In continuation of this trend.3 326. after accounting for the exchange rate loss. this trend indicates that interest payments have emerged as the largest component of current expenditure in the fiscal account.6 percent in 2008‐09 to 2.Economic Survey 2009‐10 arbitrage between the two markets. 8. Debt obligations of the private sector are fairly limited and have been a minor proportion of EDL.1 percent and 24.7 42.5 580.8 4. Table 8.8). Similarly.3 FY06 2. 2 28.6 2.0 2.4 143.2 60.5 10.3 1. Monetary Authorities Total External Debt (1 through 3) (of which) Public Debt 4.8 1.0 2.3 5.5 84.243 12.1 0.4 7.9 3.9: Pakistan: External Debt and Liabilities 1.2 1.673 10.3 1.3 1.4 28.3 0. lack of foreign currency financing flows has also played a part in the constrained growth of EDL.6 0.7 52.6 12.2 1.8 3.5 35.6 0.4 0.7 9.3 46.0 25.7 32.2 4.8 0.2 42.4 32.1 1. Foreign Exchange Liabilities Total External Debt & Liabilities (1 through 4) (of which) Public Debt Official Liquid Reserves Total External Debt (1 through 3) 1.0 0.8 13.0 31.9 6.) Exchange Rate (Rs.3 40.1 0.7 0.5 78.6 32.0 0.0 6. EOP) GDP (in billions of US dollars) * : end‐March'10 FY05 FY06 FY07 31.6 41.0 15.7 24.5 1.6 24./US$.S dollar against other international currencies have assisted in limiting the growth of EDL.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 81.0 31.1 0.0 53.9 39. Medium and Long Term(>1 year) Paris Club Multilateral Other Bilateral Euro Bonds/Saindak Bonds Military Debt Commercial Loans/Credits B.4 127.5 9. The outstanding stock as of end‐March FY10 stood at US$ 54 billion as opposed to US$ 52 billion at the end of FY09.4 0. Public and Publically Guaranteed Debt A. Following is a break‐up of the developments in the various categories of EDL: 119 published by Accountancy (www.6 62.1 0.1 9.5 60.7 29.7 109.6 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.8 32.1 0.7 24.8 0.2 40.S.1 32.2 42.623 8.2 0.3 0.7 2.5 2. dollars) FY08 FY09 FY10* 40.8 36.2 37.6 Source: SBP.0 0.pk) .3 5.2 42.5 162.3 1.6 67.7 0.9 14.7 42.9 60.2 43.1 23.5 1.2 1.4 25.accountancy. Foreign Exchange Liabilities Total External Debt & Liabilities (1 through 4) Official Liquid Reserves Memo: GDP (in billions of Rs.5 (In billions of U.6 23.2 43.0 0.8 percent.500 59.2 (In percent of GDP) 28.1 1.739 14.4 1.7 0.3 1.5 1.3 8.9 0.1 7. Public and Publically Guaranteed Debt A.5 11.5 40.2 1.4 25.2 0.5 26.1 8.3 35.3 12. However. Short Term (<1 year) 3.5 41.2 52.7 1.1 6. EAD and DPCO staff calculations Positive developments in the trade balance.3 27.Public Debt increased by US$ 2 billion or 3. Private Non‐Guaranteed Debt (>1 year) 3.2 0.0 164.3 30.3 1.3 32.1 1.1 35.4 0.2 0.0 24.8 16.2 27.0 31.3 5.3 9. with the burden of deficit financing shifting to domestic sources.4 59.0 44.3 173.668 59.2 28.0 2. Period Avg. the first three quarters of FY10 have witnessed the lowest increase in the stock of EDL during the last three years. Medium and Long Term(>1 year) B.6 34.8 13. and the relative strength of the U.3 5.) Exchange Rate (Rs.2 1.com. In absolute terms.9 33. stable and robust workers’ remittances./US$.7 0.1 0. IMF of which Central Govt. IMF 4.3 1.4 35.8 35.2 1.8 31.1 0. Short Term (<1 year) IDB 2.1 30.4 1. Table 8.2 2.8 13.7 1.3 3.1 28.0 21.0 84.0 0.7 18.2 0.8 24.9 1.0 14.5 50.4 39.6 24. Going forward. * EDL: External Debt & Liabilities The project‐based nature of loans contracted under Source: DPCO staff calculations this category hinges on Pakistan’s ability to instill project efficiency.2 billion as opposed to US$ 5.com. did not witness Total EDL (In billions of US$) 53. 120 published by Accountancy (www.8% and long‐term debt remained fairly stagnant during the Private Non‐Guaranteed 5. The overall lack of increase in the stock of PPG debt. and short‐term debt Other Bilateral 4. access to concessional financing from multilateral and bilateral sources must be secured.9 any significant changes during the period under review.1 billion at the end of FY09.3‐1(ii) IMF Debt Similar to FY09. Also.Economic Survey 2009‐10 8. net inflows from other‐bilateral sources amounted to US$ 500 million by end‐March FY10 mostly on account of US$ 200 million budget support made available through the Saudi Fund for Development. growing by approximately 40 percent. The third disbursement of SDR 766.3% March FY10. registering a net increase IMF 13. The second largest portion of PPG debt is contracted from bilateral sources which include Paris Club donors as well as other countries outside the Paris Club. These include.6% which is contracted mostly through the Islamic Short Term 1. and commercial debt. 8.4% of US$ 200 million to stand at US$ 41. Multilateral debt. foreign currency debt flows during the year have been dominated by disbursements under the IMF SBA.2 Billion) was made on August 7.0% military. The outstanding stock of IMF debt now stands at US$ 7. Public & Publically Guaranteed 78. 2009 followed by a fourth disbursement of the same amount on December 23. US$ 1.8 billion by end‐ Foreign Exchange Liabilities 2.083 million is for the purpose of budgetary support. 2010. while the remainder is being used to strengthen the country’s Balance of Payments.7 million (US$ 1.accountancy. While no net change was witnessed in the outstanding stock of Paris Club debt. Out of this outstanding amount. Multilateral 43.1% Development Bank. The outstanding stock of medium Other 3. 2009. although encouraging.3‐1(i) Public and Publically Guaranteed External Debt Public and Publically guaranteed (PPG) debt consists of Table 8.10: Composition of EDL*.5% medium and long‐term obligations from multilateral Paris Club 26. Increased efficiency with regards to project delivery will assist in augmenting these funding sources.pk) . or Component Percent in which the government is a guarantor. The recently disbursed tranches contain an element of budgetary support as opposed to the strictly BoP support nature of previous tranches.13 billion dollars was received on May 19. Pakistani Sovereign bonds. which is the single Memo: largest component of Pakistan’s EDL.9% first three quarters of FY10. limited access to increased avenues of multi‐lateral financing has meant that the increase in multilateral debt has been limited to US$ 100 million. The latest tranche of approximately US$ 1. Other major developments in the outstanding stock of PPG debt include the repayment of US$ 600 million International Sukuk Bond in January 2010. with repayments to the IMF beginning in FY12. signals limited access to foreign currency debt creating flows from multilateral and bilateral sources.0% and bilateral creditors. FY10 all loans and bonds contracted by the government. The dearth of such financing flows has meant that the Government has had to rely on disbursements under the IMF SBA and issuance of domestic debt to meet its financing requirements. specially the Euro zone.688 million and $2. 2009‐10. 2009‐10. Earthquake Reconstruction & Rehabilitation ($140.388 million during 2008‐09.295 60.582 55.3‐1(iii) Private Non‐Guaranteed Debt and Foreign Exchange Liabilities Private non‐guaranteed debt by end‐March FY10 stood at US$ 3.3 324 6. The share of BOP/Budgetary support in total non‐project aid was 17.350 52. and Afghan Refugees Relief Assistance ($2. Project Aid 2.9 percent.1 100 2135 100 Source: Economic Affairs Division 121 published by Accountancy (www.9 percent during 2008‐09. About 66 percent of total commitments during July‐March 2009‐10 were in the shape of project aid while the remaining comprised non‐project aid. A summarized table of commitments and disbursements of foreign economic assistance is given in Table 8.A.11: Commitments and Disbursements.8 million were for different purposes like Programme‐loans/Budgetary Support ($561.2 0 Total (I + II) 6. 8. which increased to 67 percent by end‐March 2010.e..2 0.388 100 4.296 35.415 72.1 percent and IDB (ST) 6. Trade Financing ($321.8 1.9 3.0 million). It is worth noting that substantial private sector debt plays a key role in the fears of a debt crisis looming over developed countries.Public Debt 8.1 971 45. Unlike previous years.1 840.4 1. short Term Credits i.7 million). Commitments of foreign economic assistance were $6. while total commitments amounted to $4. thus reducing the vulnerability of the overall debt stock.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 2. FY10* Particulars Commitments 2008‐09 2009‐10 (July‐March) (P) Amount % Share Amount % Share I.688 14 322 15. US$ 137 million is for private non guaranteed bonds while the remainder consists of loans.16 billion. Disbursement of foreign economic assistance during 2008‐09 was $4. remained fairly stable.8 e) Afghan R.5 656 2 4.730 million during the first nine months of the current fiscal year i.7 175 3.1 39.R.730 100 * As of end‐March 2010 (US $ millions) Disbursements 2008‐09 2009‐10 (July‐March) (P) Amount % Share Amount % Share 1. Tokyo Pledges ($358.135 million during July‐March.1 II. Project Aid ($700. Foreign Exchange Liabilities.pk) .accountancy. Out of this amount. which mostly consist of Central Bank Deposits.1 1.0 million).229 26 Support / (BOP) d) IDB (ST) 597 9.5 million). July‐March.1 0 2.175 67.555 32.com. disbursements of $2134.3 0 0 c) Budgetary 3. 2 0 2. During July‐March 2009‐10.9 a) Non‐Food 125 2 0 0 b) Food Aid 18 0. with the outstanding stock decreasing by a marginal amount of US$ 100 million.e.3‐2 Commitments and Disbursements of External Debt There has been a significant change in the pattern of commitments for project and non‐project aid. The share of project aid was 35. Table 8.3 million).8 percent. The exposure of Pakistan’s private sector to external debt is limited.3 3.11. Tokyo Pledges 7.092 64. the share of project aid in total commitments has increased during current financial year.1 million).272 27.5 percent in the first three quarters. IDPs ($51.3 million). Non‐project Aid 4. decreasing by US$ 200 million or 5. 3‐3 Translational Impact during 2009‐10 While the stock consists of various currencies.437) 2004 (1.3‐4 External Debt Servicing Servicing of external debt and liabilities during the first nine months of FY10 amounted to US$ 4. i.6 billion was for principal repayments during the period. Third currency and not losses caused by appreciation of the dollar against the Pak Rupee. Source: DPCO staff calculations as opposed to increased inflows).729) 1996 2.833) 2003 (1. with a peak of US$ 3. Pakistan has not been able to capitalize on favourable movements in international currency markets.2 billion at the end of FY09.683 1999 (685) 2000 (467) 2001 2.485 1997 911 1998 1. 8. ** :As of end‐March 2010 Note: Due to unavailability of detailed data the currency composition is assumed to be constant for years before 2007.541) 2005 253 2006 (197) 2007 (67) 2008 (3. During the first nine months of FY10. and Pound Sterling has had a positive impact on Pakistan’s EDL. It is important to note that even in years where translational losses have been limited. Furthermore. Going forward.121) 2009 (53) 2010** 242 Average Loss Per Year (220. As Pak Rupee is not an internationally traded currency. When compared to a stock of approximately US$ 55.12: Historical Translational Impact Year Translational (Loss)/Gain* 1993 8 1994 (881) 1995 (1.3 billion. the Debt Management Committee has undertaken the formulation of a strategy to hedge the market risk inherent in Pakistan’s external debt portfolio. Out of this amount. However. Historically. Pakistan witnessed a translational gain of approximately US$ 242 million. the magnitude of these losses has been more significant since 2000‐01. In this regard. Since 1993. However.3) * : Estimated. while the interest cost on external debt and liabilities reached US$ 771 million. US$ 3. continuing fears of high levels of debt in the Euro zone are likely to maintain the relative strength of the dollar. Pakistan has suffered an average translational loss of approximately US$ 248 million per year. all loan proceeds are converted into Pak Rupees at the time of disbursement and no exchange cover is arranged. The relative strength of the dollar against the Euro. these figures only measure the losses caused by movements in US Dollar vs.Economic Survey 2009‐10 8. the relatively smaller amount of interest payments 122 published by Accountancy (www. Yen. for all intents and purposes the Pakistan’s External Debt exposure is 100 percent dollarized.pk) . Pakistan has suffered significant losses (increase in debt stock due to currency movements Table 8.accountancy. This effectively means that the external debt portfolio is vulnerable to the movement of US Dollar exchange rate vis‐à‐vis other currencies and rupee exchange rate vis‐à‐vis USD.e. the other currencies are bought and sold via selling and buying of USD. the historic losses due to international exchange rate movements underline the need for a comprehensive currency hedging framework to be put in place.com.1 billion in translational losses suffered in 2007‐08.463 2002 (1. Sharp appreciation of the dollar against these major international currencies caused a reduction in the USD equivalent of Pakistan’s foreign currency public debt of approximately US$ 924 million in the third quarter of FY10 alone. 122 1.170 exchange liabilities and private non‐guaranteed debt FY08 3. Principal repayments of public and publically FY10* 4.5% 2. EDL as a percentage of GDP has declined to 31. analysis of the current account deficit provides important clues as to the future direction of the external debt path. specifically of the external account of the economy is mandatory. An overall improvement in the external account.6 EDL/FEE 1. A nil current account deficit before interest payment and higher growth in Foreign Exchange Earnings (FEE) compared to the interest rate paid on EDL will ensure a decline in EDL burden over time.7 4. with foreign FY07 2. Pakistan has had very limited reliance on short‐term external debt.8% Non‐Interest Current Account Deficit ‐2.1% Growth in EDL 1.3 1.8% 5. and the risks associated with them pose policy makers with a different set of challenges.3% Growth in FEE 21.8% 0.1 3. Historically.783 1.9% 3. Additionally.pk) . STD= Short‐Term Debt. and to ascertain future direction and threats to the sustainability of the debt stock. an analysis of ratios linking levels of debt and debt servicing to macroeconomic fundamentals. a reduction of 100 bps in nine months. a slight increase in this indicator is expected in Q4FY10.600 6. thereby reducing the refinancing risk to the country’s debt stock.8% 11.5% 1.870 1. However.2% 3.Public Debt made during the first three quarters of FY10 signal Table 8.10% 32.30% 29.1 percent of total EDL as opposed to 1. FEE end of year projection FEE=Foreign Exchange Earnings.4% STD/EDL 0.2% * : Debt Stock as of end‐March 2010.0 4. Table 8.5 EDL Service/FEE 15.10% EDL/FER 2.023 5.3 percent in FY09.3 1.300 4.2 1.14: External Debt Sustainability Indicators. FER=Foreign Exchange Reserves Source: DPCO Staff Calculations In spite of a marginal increase in the stock of EDL in the first three quarters of FY10. repayment capacity is more accurately captured through expressing the levels of debt as a percentage of the economy’s foreign exchange earnings and reserves.200 4.300 4. approximately 63 percent.3% 5.728 1.com.3% 14.083 servicing.8 2.196 public and publically guaranteed debt.13: Pakistan's External Debt Servicing ($millions) towards the concessional nature of most of the Years Actual Amount Total Amount Paid Rolled Over foreign loans contracted by Pakistan. A marginal decrease in EDL/FER reflects the recent consolidation of foreign exchange reserves.1% 16.300 4. Managing the levels of external debt. FY05‐FY10* FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10* EDL/GDP 32.328 amount. and a general improvement of 123 published by Accountancy (www.8 2.896 1.369 Source: SBP guaranteed external debt also include the US$ 600 * As of end‐March 2010 million repayment of the International Sukuk Bond in January 2010. STD declined to 1.322 making up a small portion of the total servicing FY09 4.5% 0.7% 17.3% 2.00% 31. 8. While EDL expressed as a percentage of GDP might be a common means of measuring the indebtedness of an economy.20% 28. historical changes in the burden.accountancy.1% 4.5% 12.3% 13.3% 13.3% 1.3% 11.2 1. as the figure of EDL is for end‐March 2010.9% 0.6% 14.3‐5 External Debt Burden and Sustainability Indicators To attain a holistic picture of the burden placed by external debt on the economy.1% 8.8% 7.346 1. coupled with limited foreign currency debt creating flows. The bulk of the FY05 2. has led to a decline in the general external indebtedness of the country.1% 1. By end‐March FY10.0% ‐4.1 percent.5 1. was on behalf of FY06 2. and the GDP is projected for the whole year.20% 28. 125% due 2016 Price EMBIPLUS ESP Price 20 0 2‐Jul‐07 2‐Jan‐08 2‐Jul‐08 2‐Jan‐09 2‐Jul‐09 2‐Jan‐10 Source: JP Morgan 124 published by Accountancy (www. The majority of repayments are to be made in the period 2011‐2025. If such performance is sustained with regards to exports and current transfers. Table 8.875 Spread over UST (bps) 544 541 Source: JP Morgan Pakistan has successfully tapped the international markets in the past. the repayment burden on the economy will be significantly lessened.Economic Survey 2009‐10 the country’s repayment capacity. 2016 500 Islamic Republic of Pakistan Jun 1.125 6. borrowing from global capital markets is seen as a vital step in the development of financial markets domestically and in setting a benchmark for sovereign paper. Although Pakistan’s stock of outstanding External Debt consists mostly of long‐term concessional rate loans from multilateral and bilateral donors. particularly in light of a rebound in international commodity prices. the presence of a chronic non‐interest current account deficit needs to be addressed to ensure sustainability of the external debt stock. Although the cost is higher than the concessional financing provided by multi‐lateral institutions and the risk of adverse impact from currency movements remains. 2010) Issuer Maturity Amount (US$ million) Islamic Republic of Pakistan Mar 31.5: Performance of Pakistan Sovereign Issues against EMBI+ 140 120 100 80 60 40 Pakistan 6. The sovereign issues of 2016 and 2017 are currently trading at 544 bps and 541 bps over UST (as of May 18. This shows that the yawning spreads have recovered sharply only recently in response to a gradual recovery in the international capital markets.pk) . However. Fig‐8. 2017 750 Coupon (%) 7. 2010) respectively. Growth in exports and robust workers’ remittances has led to a reduction in EDL and EDL service as percentages of FEE.accountancy. the addition of the IMF SBA which includes tranches with a shorter repayment horizon and relatively higher interest rates has skewed the maturity profile of the debt portfolio.15: Performance of Pakistan’s Sovereign Issues (as of May 18.com.875% due 2017 Price Pakistan 7.3‐6 International Capital Markets Access to international debt capital markets has been employed by many emerging market economies successfully. 8. A reduction in the non‐interest current account deficit also eases pressures on the debt portfolio going forward. pk) .5). though opportunistically. 125 published by Accountancy (www. The trend in the performance of Pakistan sovereign issues is nearly in line with the Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (See Figure‐8.com. so that the presence of Pakistani paper in these markets remains visible.Public Debt The fiscal year 2009‐10 was characterized by the repayment of a maturing International Ijara Sukuk Bond worth US$ 600 million due on 27 January. Pakistan plans to continue accessing international markets.accountancy. it is important to keep the investor base intact. Pakistan does not consider this foray a viable option in the short‐term given the still high yields on the existing issues. The 2016 and 2017 issues have fared well in the recent months owing to some stability on the domestic horizon due to government’s consistent efforts to put the economy back on track. 2010 with no new issue. However. 3 26.540 616.6 48.1 37.711 1.4 42.4 27.0 49.706 940.270.768 570.590 2.6 18.1 1.500 914.248 881.655 1.accountancy.597 873.1 24.8 Un-funded Debt 712.549 2.007 1.943 778.7 36.0 21.6 Source: Budget Wing.6 44.336.7 28.233 1.939 4.7 39.3 30.379 1.5 30.202 3.020.0 45.798.818 2.177.3 Permanent Debt 19.9 33.939 779.1 32.609 16.2 42.879 562.299.268 542.9 24.8 35.370 1.903.1 40.0 Total Memorandum Items: Total Debt as % of GDP (mp) * : End-March 2010 (Percent Share in Total Debt) 30.9 38.859.TABLE 8.513 1.776 557.1 INTERNAL DEBT OUTSTANDING (AT END OF PERIOD) (Rs million) Fiscal Year/ Type of Debt 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10* %Change 2009-10/ 2008-09 Permanent Debt 349.4 Floating Debt 41.807 516.009 526.894.737 20.2 Un-funded Debt 39.774.179 514.4 50.212 424.7 40.2 32.182 13.9 31.010 792.690 11.515 3.163 940.107.998 1. Finance Division published by Accountancy (www.9 35.027.610.487 2.7 30.3 51.8 17.8 17.com.536 2.274.0 31.766 685.490.4 23.637.6 Floating Debt 737.pk) .767 468.137 909.2 22.411.0 31. 882 105 5 442 121 1. BANK OPEC FUND ii) BILATERAL a) Paris Club Countries AUSTRIA BELGIUM CANADA FINLAND FRANCE GERMANY ITALY JAPAN KOREA NETHERLANDS NORWAY RUSSIA SPAIN SWEDEN SWITZERLAND UNITED KINGDOM UNITED STATES b) Non Paris Club Countries BAHRAIN CHINA KUWAIT LIBYA SAUDI ARABIA UNITED ARAB EMIRATES iii) BONDS iv) COMMERCIAL BANKS Debt Outstanding as on 31-03-2010 41.221 11.pk) .178 1. I.accountancy.2 PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED MEDIUM AND LONG TERM EXTERNAL DEBT DISBURSED AND OUTSTANDING AS ON 31-03-2010 Country/Creditor Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt (I+II+III+IV) i) MULTILATERAL ADB IBRD IDA Other EIB IDB IFAD NORD.674 476 117 21 121 80 153 106 10 1.017 67 34 531 6 2.com.707 9.824 105 6.572 275 Source: Economic Affairs Division published by Accountancy (www.572 14.555 1.068 1. FUND NORD. DEV.514 2.640 23.831 616 63 319 187 15 7 23 16.TABLE 8. 408 1. @ @ 284 469 332 47 350 115 0 425 353 597 Source: Economic Affairs Division published by Accountancy (www.342 2.257 1.236 1.493 12. 5th Plan 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 Sub-Total VII.395 1.pk) .766 1.388 2.756 1.960 1.549 2.558 146 217 50 413 146 217 50 413 132 140 111 105 57 545 132 140 111 105 57 545 3.961 2.035 1.013 3.804 1.057 755 1.026 3.895 7.156 2.564 3 57 1 1 62 15 23 21 1 1 61 329 279 395 405 578 1.565 1.139 19 29 10 2 1 61 19 29 10 2 1 61 2.600 2.923 411 750 1.528 1.440 2.810 2.793 1.151 3.600 1.759 2.079 2.002 591 887 1.com.660 4.102 1.135 - - Project Aid Includes Commitments and Disburesements for Earthquake Rehabilitation & Construction BOP includes Commitment and Dibursement for IDB Short term and Tokyo Pledeges Exclusive of IMF Loans @ : IMF Loan.312 3.687 11.161 303 211 625 1.115 4.064 1.986 251 258 383 409 622 1.619 2.186 2.752 6.935 2.263 1.262 1.989 2.626 2.219 1.365 2.681 1.689 1.3 COMMITMENTS AND DISBURSEMENTS OF LOANS AND GRANTS (BY TYPE) Plan/ Fiscal Year VI.590 1.106 12.233 2.310 3.293 2 2 4.903 9.821 1.979 2.750 2.506 4.475 3.382 527 407 970 547 1.204 9.258 1.553 1.580 1.637 3.897 13.381 3.442 1.175 840 0 0 0 0 1.659 599 808 676 536 744 3.623 1.351 776 8.219 1.308 1.907 1.262 2.030 741 846 622 918 2.151 1.084 1.882 166 161 186 331 390 1.219 1.913 2.233 948 1.581 3.296 1.620 1.471 2.225 2.922 392 258 134 322 454 1.439 2.730 2.470 972 1.822 2.234 149 125 93 205 219 791 88 196 163 130 230 807 177 79 245 57 218 776 - - 155 150 135 130 164 734 155 150 135 130 164 734 1.176 1.576 2.714 2.301 5.748 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 1.824 7.263 1.TABLE 8.620 1.183 1.025 2.643 663 201 346 43 182 1.272 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 133 0 125 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 175 185 567 81 40 0 0 0 22 0 0 18 270 100 23 114 9 0 0 10 12 0 0 650 284 1.801 12. 8th Plan 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 Sub-Total Project Aid CommitDisbursements ments Non-Project Aid Non-Food CommitDisbursements ments Food BOP Commitments Disbursements Commitments Disbursements Commitments Relief Disbursements (US $ million) Total Commit.552 9.128 2.238 2 2 21 0 11 2 0 1 3 2 2 2 2 5 21 8 3 2 1 3 2 2 2.202 1.560 542 287 136 284 309 1.055 1.649 1.152 2.058 2. 7th Plan 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 Sub-Total IX.380 1.363 190 121 182 320 174 987 213 161 103 174 299 950 55 55 73 110 120 413 50 21 66 89 80 306 86 419 16 10 531 86 419 16 10 531 61 111 293 178 643 61 111 293 178 643 1.223 4.210 2. 6th Plan 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 Sub-Total VIII.128 1.947 550 385 1.accountancy.920 1.Disbursements ments 1.006 1.723 3.398 1.312 1.380 2.565 2.132 695 903 1.228 4.794 2.311 2.688 2009-10 (Jul-Mar) 3.658 973 1.435 537 386 451 316 232 1.587 7.803 1.882 1.357 3.081 1.880 1.294 2. 806 22.8 1.3 2.156 2.4 ANNUAL COMMITMENTS.579 8.3 31.2 17.044 9.311 2.846 2. 225 ..844 6. 1.6 4.163 3.9 11.2 15. 0.323 955 399 1. 2.888 2.9 8.2 21.914 7.007 * : Excluding grants 550 2. 1.6 12.470 972 1.178 20..2 5.301 3.778 1.2 24.8 1.2 .6 18.354 893 508 1.4 10.471 9.407 5.565 2..5 Source: Economic Affairs Division published by Accountancy (www. 1.452 3.9 2.113 4.070 14.6 27.3 .612 7.346 791 2.4 3. 1. 4.6 11.897 2.160 4.6 12.513 999 649 1.2 25.6 3.342 2.900 5.232 782 534 1.470 1.219 1.062 704 1.759 2.392 30.1 3...2 25.257 1..510 741 2.1 35.395 1.9 27.558 $ Million Debt Servicing as % of Foreign Export Exchange Receipts Earnings GDP 14.766 .626 2.7 1.168 3.4 24.023 6..2 9. 1.233 2..301 1.406 1.689 1.164 25.399 5. 1.7 2..2 .106 2.4 .6 3.190 7.. 4. commercial credits.372 14.1 24.025 2.687 3.2 3.2 6.490 1.125 3.8 24.8 19..747 2..1 29. 408 .557 745 462 1.accountancy. 3.8 13.4 27.8 29.658 973 1.0 1.268 1.189 2.583 22.989 2.0 13.022 .451 Transactions during period Commitments 479 429 645 526 832 537 628 561 656 555 873 143 543 1.436 9.108 5.755 1.115 951 1.277 39. bonds and the IMF @ @ Service Payments** Principal Interest Total 11 6 17 20 11 31 34 13 47 44 18 62 37 25 62 41 33 74 52 44 96 62 46 108 93 65 158 105 71 176 101 81 182 71 51 122 107 86 193 118 79 197 144 104 248 141 108 249 175 136 311 165 162 327 234 203 437 350 234 584 360 243 603 288 203 491 390 244 634 453 274 727 513 275 788 603 303 906 723 378 1. DISBURSEMENTS..576 2..506 3. : not available @ : Inclusive of IMF(SAF) Loan ** : Excluding short term credits.921 9.321 11..587 1.7 16..032 2009-10 41.0 27.339 2.372 2..4 .9 2.1 .312 3.619 2.811 28.600 723 2.3 9.913 7.729 1.075 1.7 2.1 16.530 6.3 .341 1.5 20.658 2.6 .9 2.8 1.215 3.8 8.813 (Jul-Mar) .6 5.099 .087 9.6 3.096 1.423 1.9 24.1 15. 1. SERVICE PAYMENTS AND EXTERNAL DEBT OUTSTANDING (Medium and Long Term) Fiscal Year 1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Debt outstanding (end of period) DisUndisbursed bursed* 171 .421 25.7 3.792 2. 661 .. 2.3 17.1 10.7 20.207 793 546 1.9 13.1 14.101 691 426 1.6 3.051 960 856 948 1.6 24.3 10.959 4.425 .6 2.2 .8 52.0 2.7 13.726 3.813 4.648 1. 3.514 8..1 14.528 1.5 1.696 .608 2.3 25.620 1.076 25.3 23.292 7.612 1. 1.325 .137 1.730 8.975 32.6 2.2 2.9 15. 1.TABLE 8. 1.439 2. 1.4 25.5 13.113 12.0 19.5 29.251 1.839 8.400 974 583 1.5 16.509 8. 2..423 5.pk) . 1.182 6.766 2.6 17.1 24.581 982 599 968 644 1.791 @ @ Disbursements** 342 304 501 541 706 533 623 729 594 564 612 409 355 498 976 1.3 2.com.1 21.469 3.117 9.2 13.854 5.1 21..600 2.232 17.279 15.681 1.824 2.9 . 0.322 9.8 25.1 1.1 19.9 ..532 .3 7.540 41.586 8.2 .294 2.242 12.3 4.7 2.176 1.959 .117 685 440 1..860 27.2 3.316 921 592 1.125 741 491 1.9 21.9 2.765 2.9 14.732 4.356 3.2 7.5 9..2 14.336 659 2.799 2.041 7.3 15.461 19.195 693 2.3 44.581 3.549 2.838 35.1 1.5 2.7 12..359 3.6 23.504 28.811 6.361 9.2 1.399 1.4 2.014 22.493 2.312 3.7 11.1 8.5 13..4 27.9 1.442 1.105 673 1.427 .7 22.9 13.8 43.761 22. 4.102 1.2 .471 2.323 752 2.3 3. 1. 16.6 2.5 3.2 26.3 13..796 1.3 31.021 .801 2.268 1..111 963 1.5 1.995 871 600 1. 030 0.637 0.000 0.900 1.055 1.000 3.000 7.438 1.000 0.110 0.000 0.623 0.148 10.952 0.655 229.784 35.689 73.000 0.959 0.000 0.757 14.337 0.561 183.060 0.377 0.680 0.407 0.000 0.362 13.accountancy.753 0.665 5.252 0.226 0.424 1.054 2.319 10.000 0.334 0.000 1.203 6.316 2.584 0.074 39.373 1.699 0.102 1.886 9.337 30.983 99.000 1.193 3.618 1.072 13.643 2.834 18.000 2.262 1.102 1.249 0.060 0.803 1.619 5.575 0.615 0.000 2.725 1.122 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.566 1.164 2.373 1.646 129.203 0.598 0.916 0.500 27.485 350.679 3.103 354.376 4.637 0.492 64.000 0.128 0.016 0.483 0.824 26.000 1.000 0.098 36.392 1.032 0.000 0.050 18.941 11.408 2.000 1.800 0.741 7.766 61.000 0.810 20.528 3.457 0.183 0. NON-PARIS CLUB COUNTRIES Principal 1 China Interest Principal 2 Czecho .573 55.256 111.000 0.000 10.541 3.196 0.733 2.710 0.331 65.957 7.125 1.355 1.534 0.000 2.470 8.000 0.168 0.000 0.030 0.753 396.553 0.465 42.285 1.862 9.000 13.402 61.114 149.000 0.000 0.937 3.000 0.369 2.987 0.041 0.797 1.036 21.698 2.000 0.528 103.508 0.877 1.000 0.000 0.275 3.280 91.229 1.436 2.839 33.906 169.778 38.906 6.363 20.203 15.974 17.874 0.168 4.000 0.108 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.721 56.034 16.403 1.489 0.076 0.000 1.577 86.834 24.000 0.336 92.434 2.326 2.925 17.412 3.328 313.000 0.623 12.598 250.) published by Accountancy (www.000 0.383 1.000 7.693 0.223 0.859 0.404 11.000 0.833 0.223 2.547 137.678 68.534 4.53 6.286 12.478 0.859 0.000 0.159 3.766 0.789 0.000 0.000 0.055 0.213 41.157 0.430 0.07 58.537 0.009 0.257 0.000 0.412 0.864 0.024 0.467 3.000 1.123 0.000 5.122 23.379 15.284 13.000 0.264 30.225 21.702 3.770 1.202 36.530 19.000 31.000 2.000 1.000 0.867 7.000 0.000 0.144 2.000 0.079 2.000 0.557 0.000 0.165 1.302 2.711 0.851 13.000 0.751 0.360 16.466 0.410 0.183 10.244 28.162 0.266 1.537 519.321 0.642 2.473 0.168 90.03 0.029 0.228 25.921 81.223 3.072 0.123 19.580 0.355 42.552 96.000 3.369 14.577 1.000 0.654 8.000 0.124 0.372 0.000 0.516 0.000 0.718 70.343 0.000 168.479 29.749 29.903 2.124 0.000 3.395 2.124 1.pk) .003 1.000 3.205 2.805 96.310 0.980 0.438 0.073 0.645 61.733 14.460 0.279 28.353 0.123 13.000 5.824 52.000 0.112 1.680 4.816 14.705 253.084 0.982 45.967 7.768 9.000 0.584 0.745 0.000 5.257 1.636 368.097 1.1 0.662 5.001 48.413 0.656 2.826 0.375 0.000 0.000 1.098 1.422 22.000 0.294 32.737 3.136 0.053 5.366 87.232 0.273 0.148 11.294 46.000 2.063 1.364 3.364 15.507 1.122 77.086 0.493 2.982 46.098 1.000 0.894 0.092 35.115 3.074 8.543 0.584 0.212 0.631 9.000 1.555 1.000 1.153 60.823 0.833 4.900 0.015 29.841 4.419 0.080 (Contd.TABLE 8.000 1.149 1.877 0.254 22.000 0.000 0.787 3.000 0.205 0.725 40.221 1.057 0.072 0.272 23.954 216.153 0.019 29.415 1.000 1.000 2.981 0.224 0.845 2.367 0.396 63.000 0.943 2.767 0.261 62.657 48.115 0.767 6.000 0.000 35.876 4.251 0.015 2.com.000 4.307 5.798 13.354 24.000 14.485 38.634 4.000 0.846 15.483 10.952 0.136 2.740 0.000 28.000 0.5 DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS OF FOREIGN MEDIUM AND LONG TERM LOANS (Paid in foreign exchange) (US $ million) Fiscal Year Kind I.617 18.767 0.376 0.695 3.962 0.319 36.000 1.000 5.359 0.042 0.100 0.102 0.854 7.669 0.061 80.040 2.541 43.000 0.958 23.678 24.084 200.000 7.676 107.185 0.278 4.130 1.234 163.104 6.145 3.000 1.860 0.315 0.195 0.859 6.868 13.171 0.000 0.000 0.142 18.006 0. PARIS CLUB COUNTRIES Principal Interest Principal 2 Austria Interest Principal 3 Belgium Interest Principal 4 Canada Interest Principal 5 Denmark Interest Principal 6 France Interest Principal 7 Finland Interest Principal 8 Germany Interest Principal 9 Italy Interest Principal 10 Japan Interest Principal 11 Korea Interest Principal 12 Norway Interest Principal 13 Netherlands Interest Principal 14 Russia Interest Principal 15 Sweden Interest Principal 16 Spain Interest Principal 17 Switzerland Interest Principal 18 USA Interest Principal 19 UK Interest Principal TOTAL (I) Interest II.111 3.445 0.289 5.64 20.636 82.009 2009-10 (Jul-Mar) 2.681 0.057 0.000 1.857 3.436 0.382 234.039 1.285 14.456 18.244 59.000 0.000 3.253 1.000 1.168 49.661 0.911 0.000 24.720 0.882 364.051 3.000 0.759 12.317 0.654 3.580 2.545 125.191 1.281 0.721 44.000 47.000 0.000 5.564 56.884 2.000 0.262 1.542 0.000 0.222 0.070 0.000 5.000 1.207 0.623 2.088 7.751 6.079 2.slovakia Interest Principal 3 Kuwait Interest Principal 4 Libya Interest Principal 5 Saudi Arabia Interest Principal 6 UAE Interest Principal TOTAL (II) Interest 1 Australia 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 105.064 2.605 48.059 0.938 2.703 0.000 0.000 1. 000 0.500 1463.819 26.0 10.000 0.6 72.106 9.111 0.680 29.667 151.012 0.541 94.442 151.502 4.571 12.022 0.900 1.379 119.141 771.061 265.007 4.406 204.935 7.000 0.459 0.219 693.3 16.527 0.115 1766.448 325.303 89.468 1.000 16.43 26.597 0.352 355.069 2497.439 7.679 2.000 207.000 2.497 700.685 4.293 59.377 99.359 349. GLOBAL BONDS Principal 1 Euro Bonds Interest Principal 2 Saindak Bonds Interest Principal 3 US Dollar Bonds (NHA Interest Principal TOTAL (V) Interest Principal TOTAL (I+II+III+IV+V) Interest Total VI.307 5.726 4.684 3.419 112.054 7.870 2194.637 1.000 0.221 1656.000 3.631 1570.496 0.863 949.955 241.416 2.161 72.903 107.208 1.000 8.482 1.370 3.696 2100.458 155.731 572.166 3.294 0.654 2513.388 0.049 7.000 3.423 339.021 4.565 2009-10 (Jul-Mar) III.566 3197.620 612.827 4.289 712.787 1400. Bank Interest Standard charted Principal 4 Bank Interest Principal TOTAL (IV) Interest V.354 1.105 2.362 1.026 811.280 7.600 3.7 9.757 8.039 946.848 0.118 4.488 10.000 6.000 0.I.780 66.361 177.406 1050.981 1370.500 1.504 0.592 30.000 1.981 0.546 12.945 1048.900 0.561 150.142 116.106 2079.854 261.021 961.595 0.262 0.514 0.286 0.268 333.979 1.213 9.939 2.558 1309.773 6.562 0.232 0.429 177.040 818.757 74.044 151.847 1.589 64.774 600 106.935 0.918 206.7 23.849 0.000 0.668 233.068 259.accountancy.414 0 5.616 1.866 28.801 4.282 0.870 9.880 1258.885 45.981 0.561 0.210 1741.119 2.802 3.170 57.023 1.2 198.648 2.712 11.469 4.4 2007.839 127.000 4.565 5.918 2.288 2122.392 0.626 9.243 699.963 16.707 9.279 2.6 5.286 0.800 2.195 0.000 0.459 155.000 0.000 0.685 62.940 616.375 0.923 12.966 213.856 17.065 6.094 4.620 4.126 25.481 1667.962 2.723 6.130 2.544 3.3 17.500 2.458 155.871 663.536 2558.245 330.046 0.499 287.361 155.996 23.000 0.500 1.919 249.695 2.608 21.7 9.476 1072.679 3.776 1.000 0.561 145.000 0.259 21.914 153.781 243.866 6.504 7.280 11.433 6.738 179.945 1.011 659.887 87.798 1.158 296.410 0.797 83.3 0.903 21.274 1292.917 4.063 7.451 133.002 66.3 1.903 21.000 3.527 4.979 1708.000 0.170 8.com.149 73.591 25.751 2.467 0.000 0.5 24.685 2.722 2.000 0.983 50.077 0.903 1.324 2.789 132.000 1.594 3.519 0.058 91.956 0.712 1.531 805.583 1.535 0.5 DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS OF FOREIGN MEDIUM AND LONG TERM LOANS (Paid in foreign exchange) (US $ million) Fiscal Year Kind 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 245.427 236.903 21.259 119.585 1.111 0.633 155.5 13.7 11.6 15.029 275.429 172.066 1.621 0.951 1.804 0.000 500.716 4.5 23.280 10.188 1.325 29.190 2.511 766.048 66.034 659.089 2888.071 8.000 1.452 97.657 16.280 9.000 791.501 22.0 3.942 4.000 0. OTHERS Principal 1 NBP's Interest Principal 2 Bank of Indosuez Interest Principal 3 NBP Bahrain Interest Principal 4 ANZ Bank Interest Principal 5 Cash (ST) Interest Principal IMF 6 Interest Principal TOTAL (VI) Interest Principal Total (I+II+III+IV+V+VI) Interest Grand Total (P+I) 1 ADB 247.749 0.000 62. DEVELOPMENT FUNDS Principal 1 NORDIC Interest Principal 2 OPEC Fund Interest Principal 3 Turkey (EXIM Bank) Interest Principal 4 E.000 0.000 0.534 27.739 70.921 9.020 294.000 0.464 1424.974 550.345 3.704 77.754 0.148 7.413 7.875 4.000 2.000 2.282 0.260 317.9 3.200 0.698 1106.28 5.443 3215.442 0.234 2.016 0.272 75.281 0.712 12.849 0 13.698 34.571 0.003 0.763 526.064 578.485 621.TABLE 8.000 3.097 5.286 0.258 2038.544 0 0 0 0 0.753 2136.431 2102.384 237.690 271.039 931.673 534. MULTILATERAL Principal Interest Principal 2 IBRD Interest Principal 3 IDA Interest Principal 4 IFAD Interest Principal 5 IDB Interest Principal 6 IDB (ST) Interest Principal TOTAL (III) Interest IV.795 270.612 8.983 0.878 64.362 177.262 2.975 0.286 0.000 5.286 0.963 80.749 0.206 23.061 322.724 51.000 0.903 21.495 0.370 2.245 0.000 155.926 39.293 110.644 91.43 521.243 1129.391 1283.335 0.204 0.083 2.204 0.684 5.000 0.179 683.533 6.898 5.627 111.336 1583.474 0.000 0.119 996.4 12.800 0.089 273.761 8.178 0.000 0.000 4.246 3.988 0.882 20.043 2.875 0.560 932.254 2.5 23.713 2.000 5.903 21.3 1004.903 0 21.791 76.023 39.459 26.573 7.566 50.734 3.680 6.734 669.000 0.716 970.087 8.340 62.118 0.000 21.903 21.pk) .789 701.567 18.510 published by Accountancy (www.504 0.744 1888.617 42.000 0.411 2064.181 57.326 4.281 2.280 118.552 16.961 322.058 97.507 62.000 0.417 537.652 143.217 5.959 0.766 7.000 4.909 699.526 0 0 0 0 4.387 0.592 2.746 290.173 110.188 227.918 7.618 126.610 609. 5 Libor Euro 6 months + 0.2-1.8 596. I DB 5. I DB (ST) 2.8 US Swap rate 15 years +1.85 Libor+0.0 1% 30 352.EIB Sub-Total (C) Total (A+B+C) 2007-08 Interest Rate/ Commission(%) Amortization (years) 460.accountancy. Non-Paris Club 1.75+4. Saudi Arabia 2.7 66.0 100 3090.5& LIBOR+60bps 1.8 0.75 Libor+0.25-5.pk) .5 and Libor 6 months + 0.3 0.5 0.5 24 2 25 425 200.4 0.6 0.25 0-5 1. Korea 5. Germany 2. OPEC 4. Japan 3. Paris Club Countries 1.3 LIBOR EURO 6 months -200bps - 40 30 20 - 38.8 1.1 171. Korea 4.8 2 fixed and Libor 3 months +0.825 Libor+2.5 1292.15 - 20 1 26 149. France 4.4 Amount (US $ Million) 249.7 0.5 &Libor+60bps 2. Kuwait 3. IDB Stort-term 6.4 3515.IBRD 8.2 259.8 0. China 2.4 5779.2 1436.8 5.9% 1-1. Non-Paris Club 1.75 fixed 1. IDB 3.6 TERMS OF FOREIGN LOANS/CREDITS CONTRACTED BY PAKISTAN Lending Country/Agency A.15 35 Source: Economic Affairs Division published by Accountancy (www. Japan 3. IBRD 8.8 50.75 1.2 800 205.France Sub-Total (A) B.70 1 fixed 25 508.6 3174. Paris Club Countries 1.4 103.3 10. Germany 2.3 5.Italy Sub-Total (A): B.8 224.1 1443.4 18.1 133. China 3.UAE Sub-Total (B): C.0 327.4 0.9 1835.6 fixed 30 280 1505.75 30 4412.2 Libor Euro 6 months +2.2 253. Kuwait Sub-Total (B) C Multilateral 1.com.3 287.6 Libor+1. OPEC 7.1 472. IFAD Sub-Total (C): Total (A+B+C) 2006-07 Interest Rate/ Commission(%) Amortization (years) 5.1 3% 2% 15 26 20.7 1759.3 2314.0 20.8 197.0 912.75 1-1.8 1130.4 1528.8 3481.75 LIBOR EURO 6 months -200bps 40 20 125.2 fixed 1.6 353 1.25 LIBOR 6 months + 60 bps - 2 1-18 35 15-32 20 20 - 2008-09 Interest Rate/ Commission(%) Amortization (years) Amount (US $ Million) 138.2 3.3 236.1 0.15 bps 0.2 2.5 1-2 fixed and Libor 6 months +0.4 151.6 35 23 140 324. Multilateral 1.3 20-30 12. IDA 5.55 and 3. ADB 6.5 35 24 20 1-18 1 173.TABLE 8.5 LIBOR 12 months +20 Bps 2.3 98.4 LIBOR 6 months '+ 60 bps LIBOR 6-12 months+60-2.75 40 2009-10 ( July.22 8-20 20-25 49. ADB 3.March ) Interest Rate/ Commission(%) Amortization (years) 387. IFAD 7.7 40. Saudi Arabia 4. IDA 2.5 1 1-18 35 15-24 20 36.0 3 10-15 30-40 Amount (US $ Million) Lending Country/Agency Amount (US $ Million) A. 3 16.2 0.7 56.0 1.0 51. MAURITIUS Sub-Total (IV) Grand Total (I+II+III+IV) (US $ million) 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 0.5 6.8 1.1 1.0 945.2 0.0 100.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.0 0.1 2. Korea 9. JORDAN 11.2 5.4 2.0 129.1 0.7 8.9 2009-10 (Jul-Mar) 0.5 1.8 0.9 13.0 - 1. Austria 3. USA 12.9 142. Switzerland 10.0 79.6 41. Japan 6.0 10.2 31. Islamic Development Bank 4. UK 11. UN and Specialised Agencies 7.5 35.7 2007-08 136.6 Source : Economic Affairs Division published by Accountancy (www. Australia 2. Paris Club Countries 1.7 227.0 68.3 10.2 609.7 21.6 2.5 1.0 441. Non Paris Club Countries China Iran UAE Oman Saudi Arabia Sub-Total (II) III Multilateral 1. 2.2 2. BHUTAN 6.5 1.3 2.9 2.7 567. Germany 5.5 3.6 50.1 0. 5.7 20.5 1.4 74.5 0. AFGHANISTAN 2.8 0.7 269.0 - 0.2 922.5 5.5 1.5 5.5 829.2 11.0 49. Earthquake 1.2 576.9 794.2 67. Afghan Refugees B. Norway 8.0 113.0 1.1 55.3 175.0 20.5 0.4 374.2 0.3 3.6 36.2 11.0 136.8 65. 4.0 0.5 300. UK 20.0 21.3 73.8 43.5 147. Italy Sub-Total (I) II 1.0 1179. EEC / EU 3.7 1.3 5.7 0.4 0.4 177.0 2.0 58.6 5.5 80.7 630.6 247.5 3. ALGERIA 3.5 514.9 0.8 2008-09 9.4 - 0.5 150. Canada 4.8 20.7 635.3 90.8 3. PAK-TURK FOUNDATION 15.5 3. INDONESIA 10.1 11.5 9.pk) .8 103. UNFPA Sub-Total (III) IV Relief Assistance for A.9 1248.0 371.2 0.4 5.0 1.9 133.4 278. BRUNEI 7.5 67.1 0.6 12.1 0. ADB 21.5 272.0 116.7 50.3 0. Germany 23.4 75.1 45.1 404.4 14.3 0.8 3. THAILAND 18.2 2. CHINA 8 . OMAN 14.0 100.4 - 7.0 50.com.0 4.9 1426.2 66.4 67. 3.5 0.4 0. IDB 24.7 65.3 - 5.accountancy.3 0.9 10.3 2. MOROCCO 13.3 1.4 1.9 130.CYPRUS 9.8 1.7 31.1 15.4 3.7 66.9 111. WB (IDA) 22.5 377.0 406.4 287. AUSTRIA 4.9 2005-06 2006-07 0. ADB 2. TURKEY 19.7 1.0 2.9 44.6 760. IBRD 6.9 0.5 30.6 37. World Food Programme 9.4 331.7 1. Netherlands 7.1 647.0 50.9 118.0 27.2 0. MALAYSIA 12. UNDP Special Grant 8.0 200.0 - 49. IDA 5.1 31. SAUDI ARABIA 16.8 247.7 46.TABLE 8.0 - 0.0 0.2 301.0 25.0 4.4 7.7 33.4 26.7 GRANT ASSISTANCE AGREEMENTS SIGNED 1999-00 I.7 - 6.2 - - 0.2 158.3 842.6 114. AZERBAIJAN 5.4 1. SOUTH KOREA 17. ADB 4.0 353.8 725.0 34.066.0 118.2 319.292.0 138.2 1.0 100. Norway 10.0 424. Italy 15.0 - - - 50. IDB (ST) Sub-Total (C) Grand-Total (A+B+C) 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 16.8 18.0 1505.0 200.8 347.208.4 353.2 - - - - - - 12.0 691.1 1436. Austria 2.0 1.0 508.6 249.0 121.TABLE 8. Paris Club Countries 1.679.0 339.7 2.4 1529. KPC 10. IDB 9.0 17.4 835.accountancy.481.9 2.0 1443.0 205.0 0.0 350.8 TOTAL LOANS AND CREDITS CONTRACTED (US $ million) Lending Country/Agency A.2 355.0 566 10.0 102.0 125.2 38.4 36. Korea 3.0 552.0 328. Multilateral: 1. Netherlands 9.0 912. Canada 5.2 47.0 469. Turkey (EXIM Bank) 6.pk) .352.0 118.0 10.1 171.297.9 280.045.0 324.413.790.174.0 82.0 32.4 103.com. UK 13.2 2007-08 2008-09 (Jul-Mar) 2009-10 26.2 25.0 2.0 2.6 245.5 5.2 17.5 Source : Economic Affairs Division published by Accountancy (www.0 198.7 173.4 40.2 2. European Investment Bank 6.0 1.5 26.0 44.4 3.779.4 151.5 140.0 - 245.0 288.0 49.4 287. IBRD 2.0 15.3 - 259.389.8 3. IDA 3.6 425.5 236.0 2.2 63.0 17. USA 14.4 1.3 389.495.5 51. Spain 12.6 - 500.0 460. Kuwait 4.0 1.0 6.0 44.0 2.0 53.0 800.2 388. China 2.4 833.0 22.4 3.2 98.4 332.0 5.1 224.0 20.1 60.0 3.314.281.0 601.070. Australia 3.0 1.1 133.0 879.0 1760.515.0 322. Belgium 4.9 9.0 18.0 14.0 1130.7 340.0 66.0 54.7 - - 284. Abu Dhabi Fund Sub-Total (B) C.0 254. OPEC Fund 7.2 38.079.2 50.1 1.0 1.0 10.0 10.008.3 88.0 25.0 597.7 18.5 860.0 878.4 8.0 10. Germany 7.0 4.0 1166. Sweden Sub-Total (A) B.8 149.0 115.0 2.6 1. France 6.4 265.0 - - - 102.2 472.0 1835.090.3 3. IFAD 5.2 268. Japan 8. Non-Paris Club Countries: 1.6 409. Saudi Arabia 5. The head count ratio is a crude measure of poverty because it completely ignores the gap in incomes from the poverty line and the distribution of income among the poor. Poverty is the principal cause of hunger and under nourishment. Mahbub ul Haq).Poverty 9 Poverty is about denial of opportunities and fulfilment of human potential. This poverty line is adjusted at the time of the poverty estimation after accounting for the inflationary impact in intervening years. c) Severity of poverty measure. and inequality appears to have been on the rise worldwide in recent decades at both national and international levels. According to most recent estimates of the Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO.40 2000‐01 723. where the weight given to each poor person is proportional to the square of the income shortfall of the poor from the poverty line. Three poverty measures are commonly used. Poverty and inequality are closely related. alongwith consumption expenditure on non‐food items. Human poverty means the denial of choices and opportunities for a tolerable life in all economic and social aspects. the richest 20 percent account for 75 percent of world income. a narrowly‐defined “income” poverty and a broader concept of “human” poverty (referred to as the poverty of opportunities by late Dr. or roughly 15 percent of the estimated world population. according to the United Nations Development Programme.pk) . This represents an increase of 142 million over the figure for 1990‐92.accountancy. The severity of poverty index has more desirable properties. Expenditure on calorie intake of 2350 calories per adult equivalent per day.40 2004‐05 878. 2009). 127 published by Accountancy (www. poverty line is calorie‐based. More than 80 percent of the world’s population lives in countries where income differentials are widening. On the other hand. The poorest 40 percent of the world’s population account for only 5 percent of global income. Income poverty is defined as the lack of necessities for minimum material wellbeing determined by the national poverty line. is aggregated to construct a poverty line.47 In case of Pakistan. a measure of poverty obtained by multiplying the head count by the average relative distance at which the poor are from the poverty line. b) Poverty gap ratio. a) Head count ratio (HCR): the proportion of population below the national or international poverty line as the case may be.com. the number of hungry people world wide has reached 963 million. Pakistan Poverty Line in Historical Perspective (Rs) Year Poverty Line 1998‐99 673.64 2005‐06 948. Poverty essentially consists of two elements. 4 Cambodia 1994‐2004 48.2 98. Based on income approach.1 64.5 ‐0.7 9.2 5.0 22.2 4.0 19.9 billion in 1981 to a low of 1.7 0. The commitment made in the Millennium Development Goals to eradicate absolute poverty by halving the number of people living on less than $1.2 Indonesia (rural) 1987‐2005 70.5 353.4 76. extreme income poverty has fallen substantially.8 10.2 Turkey 1987‐2005 1.7 18.6 40.0 1.7 0.7 73.9 1.7 0.3 ‐8.4 5.1 India (rural) 1988‐2005 55.8 9.3 2.3 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 1990‐2005 3.5 0. Indonesia.6 80.4 1492.1 117.0 14.0 85.4 billion in 2005.6 18.5 2.5 37.7 1.5 ‐0.0 6.7 percent during this period. 1981‐2005 Poverty is most often measured in monetary terms.2 0.6 Thailand 1988‐2004 17.2 9. As a consequence of the fast economic growth and increase in standards of living.7 21.2 4.1 China (rural) 1990‐2005 74.1 1.1 0.5 Median 48.2 204.25 a day represents the most publicized example of an income focused approach to poverty.7 44.3 58.8 344. in Turkey.5 22.6 76.0 Source: Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2010.2 2.1 26.e.6 0. the last 20 years have seen a significant reduction in the depth and severity of extreme poverty in the developing world. Table‐9.0 2.1 19.2 0.2 26. the proportion of people living in extreme poverty more than halved from 52 to 25.0 3.1 0. In relative terms.6 43.9 India (urban) 1988‐2005 47.2 1.2 9.5 ‐3.0 Republic Pakistan 1991‐2005 64.0 Sri Lanka 1985‐2002 20.5 39. captured by levels of income or consumption per capita or per household.8 ‐1.25 a day having declined from a high of 1.7 0.6 Russian Federation 1993‐2005 2.5 24.5 36.6 ‐0.5 44.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Poverty Overview ‐ Global Profile Global Poverty Trends.7 22.7 29. Decline in poverty rates were sharpest in China.5 0.0 Total (15 countries) % age share of each country in the total poverty reduction 0.7 27.2 409.9 ‐1.3 Indonesia (urban) 1987‐2005 62.0 3.0 4.9 896.8 0.3 0.3 9.2 Kazakhstan 1996‐2005 5.accountancy.1). In absolute terms.0 68.2 4.com.5 2.2 Viet Nam 1993‐2006 63.2 Philippines 1988‐2006 30. UN 128 published by Accountancy (www. Fifteen countries representing 93 percent of the population witnessed their headcount poverty rates reduced from 52 percent in 1990 to around 25 percent in the mid 2000s (Table‐9. Vietnam and Thailand.3 Lao People’s Democratic 1992‐2002 55.1 : Poverty reduction between 1990 and the mid‐2000s Headcount Number of Poor (Million) poverty rates (%) Poverty Initial Final Initial Final Country Period reduction Bangladesh 1992‐2005 66. with the number of people living on less than $1.8 0. developing countries in Asia and the Pacific made significant progress in reducing poverty.9 596.0 100.3 ‐19.1 614.7 ‐1.0 18.pk) .4 9.4 1.5 0. did the poverty rate increase over the period.9 China (urban) 1990‐2005 23.8 1. ESCAP.2 0. In only one of the countries shown in the Table i. In a global perspective. before declining to 23. The HCR ratio of 30. the second largest job provider (34. In the outlook for 2010. Food inflation which has immediate impact on poverty. Certain Developments with Relevance to Incidence of Poverty After a high growth rate of 6. the Services sector.2% respectively).3 percent during 2004‐05 and 2005‐06. there has been an increase to 4.com. no uni‐directional movement of head count ratio has been observed. 2. However. it is showing an upward trend of recent.5%) and having the highest employment elasticity. However it has increased to 5.58 percent in 2008‐09.5 percent during 2008‐09. As regards poverty status in Pakistan. 129 published by Accountancy (www.7 percent in 2008‐09. In other countries such as Cambodia.e. India the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and the Philippines the cuts in poverty rates were insufficient to reduce the total number of poor. started increasing since 2007‐08 and touched the peak of 20. poverty reduction will still be significantly less than it would have been under pre‐crisis trends. Pakistan has experienced a declining rate of economic growth.56 percent in 2009‐10 compared with 1. Almost all of the reduction took place in just a few countries of which China represented 79. Agriculture sector.2 percent in 2007‐08 from 6.9 percent and 22.1 percent in 2009‐10. India had 28 million more poor in 2005 than in 1988.pk) . By these estimates. according to ESCAP (UN).4 percent. the growth rate declined. the reduction in employment and income opportunities since 2007 has led to a considerable slowdown in the progress towards poverty reduction and the fight against hunger. in 2009.7% and 1.2 percent in 2006‐07. However. the largest source of employment (45. but declined to 12 percent in 2009‐10.77 percent in 2008‐09 in line with the world inflation trend. the crisis has trapped about 15 million more people in extreme poverty in Africa and almost 4 million in Latin America and the Caribbean.Poverty The total number of poor in the 15 countries shown in Table‐1 was reduced significantly to 596 million from 1. the economic recovery is expected to encourage a resumption of the declining trend in global poverty in the years prior to the crisis.5 percent in 2000‐01. On the other hand.0 percent. is expected to grow at 4. during 2007‐08 and 2008‐09 (3. Nonetheless as growth in income per capita is expected to fall well short of pre‐crisis levels. Unemployment rate decreased to 5. This setback was felt predominantly in East and South Asia.accountancy. Estimates by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations suggest that. As may be seen.1%) although improved in terms of growth in 2008‐09 is projected to witness a lower growth rate in 2009‐10 i.5 percent and Indonesia 11. where between 29 and 63 million people were likely affected of whom about two thirds were in India. Inflation has subsided in 2009‐10 but is showing an upward trend of recent. (Source: World Economic Situation & prospects 2010. increased to 23. between 47 and 84 million more people have remained poor or will have fallen into poverty in developing countries and economies in transition than would have been the case had pre‐crisis growth continued its course. increased to 34.8 percent in 2006‐07. UN).6 percent in 1998‐99.493 million in 1990 to 897 in the mid‐2000s. given the international economic crisis during 2008‐09 ‐ although it was not negative as in case of some other countries. Inflation which was declining over 2004‐05 to 2006‐07. a better targeting – or wider coverage – may be needed. There is anecdotal evidence that the ranks of the vulnerable in urban areas is increasing. there are more “consumers” than “producers”. workers remittances in case of Pakistan are showing a robust upward trend. a total of Rs. among others in countries of destination.pk) . and in 2005.7 percent in 2008 (Table‐9.25 per person per day. The Programme has produced three rounds of estimates. a country highly dependent on foreign aid. with the poverty line raised to $1.2 million tons of wheat was procured in 2008‐09) has led to a substantial cash injection into the rural economy. 70 billion was allocated. when the programme produced new estimates using its 2005 PPPs.2). is considerable.3 billion in 2007‐08. Box‐1: New International Poverty Line The dollar‐a‐day poverty line has its roots in the purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates generated by the International Comparison Program project. and the income transfers to the rural economy come at the expense of the urban population. it defines absolute poverty in a simple manner which is intuitively attractive and seems to provide a universally applicable definition for making comparisons among countries cross‐sectionally as well as (for single countries) inter‐temporally.8 billion were incurred up till March. however. when the estimates were revised using the PPP exchange rates of the program’s 1993 round with a poverty line of $1.08 per person per day. On the flip side. to target 5 million vulnerable families.com. $6. for example. the World Bank and the University of Pennsylvania. 14 billion was disbursed to 1. with a poverty line of $1 per person per day. the dollar‐a‐day line. 17.76 million beneficiaries in the shape of a cash grant of Rs 1000 per month. which were raised to Rs950/40 Kg from Rs 625/40 Kg in September 2008. entailing. Each subsequent round leads to a re‐estimation of the incidence of poverty. the increase in support prices in conjunction with a much larger commodity procurement program run by the government (under which 9. it is targeted primarily towards rural areas. job loss for Pakistani emigrants. Growth‐Poverty Nexus Both the global crisis and deteriorating security situation in South & South‐West Asia countries saw economic growth come under pressure in 2009 decelerating to 2. The PPPs were used first to construct an “average” poverty line for a group of countries for which the International Comparison programme provided information and then to convert this common line into national currencies in order to estimate the incidence of poverty using national distributional data. To this extent. especially in the low‐income category. For the current financial year. A major factor in operation over the past two years which could have possibly mitigated pressure on poverty has been the substantial increase in support prices of wheat.accountancy. an amount of Rs. Prima facie.3 billion during 2009‐10 (July‐April).9 percent as compared to 4. and world forecast for lower workers remittances. in 1985. Barring Afghanistan. the largest staple food crop.Economic Survey 2009‐10 In spite of world economic crisis. India achieved 130 published by Accountancy (www. undertaken jointly by the United Nations Statistics Division. In FY 2008/09. in 2000‐20001.4 billion in 2008‐09 and $7. The potential strength of the monetary poverty‐line approach. While the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) caters to the needs of the ‘poorest of the poor’ of the society in terms of cash assistance for day to day subsistence. when the programme covered 22 countries. Expenditures amounting to Rs. 2010. estimated at $5. 3 4.com.1 12. Table‐9.0 8.5 Pakistan 3.8 9.2 4.2 percent in 2009.2 3.6 4.0 5.5 16.9 4. report on the world social situation 2010 UN (vi) Pakistan Economic Survey.5 9.6 3.5 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 3.7 6.4 Bangladesh 6.7 7.9 6.7 6.3 7.6 South Asia ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 8.0 7.3 there exists a negative correlation between GDP growth rate.4 India 6.7 5.0 6.2 7.3 7.0 Sri Lanka 6.0 15.2 4.0 20.1 7.0 5.2 6.3: GDP Growth Rate 1998‐99 2000‐01 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2014‐15 World ‐ ‐ 4.8* * : 29.3 5.3 2.0 10.4 ‐ ‐ ‐ Pakistan 6.5 ‐ ‐ ‐ Poverty Head Count Ratio South Asia 38.6 2.2 5.4 5.9 7.3 5. 2008 to 2010 (Percentage) Real GDP Growth Inflation 2010 2010 2008 2009 2008 2009 (Projection) (Projection) South and South‐West Asia 4.6 34. Work that provides an adequate income for working men and women and is the surest route out of poverty.3 4.0 Maldives 5.1 ‐ ‐ Unemployment Rate World ‐ ‐ 6.9 7.0 Nepal 5.4 6.2 4.0 5.2 5.7 1. Table‐9.7 2.5 5.2 8.25 per day in 1990 to reduce poverty to half of 1990 as per MDGs.4 ‐ Pakistan 4.0 25.4 8.7 3.0 ‐0.accountancy.0 Bhutan 5.8 ‐10.7 1.2 2. Increased focus on the generation of decent work opportunities is central to achieving the goals established by the United Nations Millennium Summit. Note: In 2005‐6.0 5.0 3.2 5.6 6.5) as the base line Source: (i) World economic outlook 2010.3% target to reduce HCR of 58.6 26. UN) GDP Growth.1 5. As shown in Table‐9. Employment and Poverty Headcount Ratio Productive employment is the economic foundation of decent work.2 Source: Economic and social survey of Asia and the Pacific 2010 (ESCAP.9 ‐6. IMF (ii) global employment trends 2009 ILO (iii) Pakistan National Accounts 2010 (iv) Pakistan labour force survey 2008‐09 (v) Rethinking poverty.9 22.6 6.2: Rate of economic growth and inflation in South and South‐West Asian economies.2 8.9 6.5 11.3 8.42 (2001‐ ‐ ‐ 40.0 3.5%. Maldives and Turkey.1 12.3 7. Growth contracted in only two countries.0 22.5 6.8 3.5 5.5 6.1 11.4 15.1 ‐ ‐ ‐ South Asia ‐ ‐ 5.5 7.Poverty highest growth rate at 7.9 6. living on less than $1. Pakistan had achieved the 2015 target of halving poverty using 1990 (58.3 02) Pakistan 30.5 ‐ 23.4 Afghanistan 3.3 9. and poverty head count and a positive correlation between unemployment and poverty head count ratio.7 6.pk) .2 8.4 5. Access to productive.3 5.8 ‐2.7 6.6 Turkey 0.3 6.8 6.1 11. 131 published by Accountancy (www.3 22.0 9.1 6.7 7.7 13.0 8. periods of high growth that have occurred at the expense of macroeconomic stability do not tend to produce the desired outcomes with regards to poverty reduction in a sustainable manner. World Economic Growth Prospects While the world economic situation has been improving since the past six months. many are still facing declines in household incomes. Nonetheless. As past experience in the case of Pakistan and other countries has repeatedly suggested.6 percent. remain critical drivers of long run reductions in poverty. Even given the signs of economic recovery. However. turned negative in July. health sanitation. it will take more time and greater efforts to make up for the significant setbacks in the progress towards poverty reduction and the fight against hunger. Developing countries. The crisis has impacted severely. rising unemployment and the effects of dwindling government revenue on social services. Where these adverse impacts cannot be countered because of weak social safety nets and lack of fiscal space to protect social spending and promote job creation there is a high risk of long‐lasting setbacks to human development. when compared with January 2003. and the un‐precedented slowdown in the global economy witnessed a mixed trend of inflation during 2008‐09. and housing particularly for those belonging to lower income groups.6 percent in November 2009. as is being done over the past two years. Inflation Behaviour and Prospects Just as the sharp rise in food and fuel prices generated a rapid acceleration of headline inflation in both high income and developing countries during 2008. are expected to show the strongest recovery in 2010. As a consequence. food inflation in developing countries has not been falling as rapidly as overall prices in the two‐thirds of developing countries for which data are available through May 2009. the global economic recovery is expected to remain sluggish.4 percent in the middle of 2008. while un‐employment rates are expected to stay high. As a result. The allocation of more resources for the provision of basic services such as education. how to make growth more inclusive by spreading its benefits to large segments of the population. The challenge is. especially those in Asia. Inflation developments have changed drastically among middle and low‐income countries. Notwithstanding the declines in headline inflation. The median rate of year‐over‐year consumer price inflation in high income countries. and targeted programmes for the benefit of the poor in the broader framework of social protection.2 percent in mid 2008. on low‐income countries and the most vulnerable. by the end of May 2009. This suggests that the poor in these countries may not be benefiting from lower international food prices to the same degree as the poor in richer countries and that a significant portion of the 130 million pushed into extreme poverty during the food price spike may not have exited poverty as might have been expected given the fall in international food prices. The median inflation rate in developing countries has declined from a peak of 12.accountancy. as always. growth is expected to remain well below potential and the pre‐crisis levels of performance in the developing world. but as of October 2009 it was 1. core inflation has remained relatively stable in high‐income countries.pk) .Economic Survey 2009‐10 Accelerating economic growth is necessary but not sufficient Accelerating economic growth is necessary but not sufficient to bring down poverty levels. Median inflation in low‐income countries peaked at 15. as well as the other Millennium Development Goals. food prices in developing countries had risen about 8 percent faster than non‐food prices. but was 0. which peaked at 5.4 percent in mid‐2008 to only 2. 132 published by Accountancy (www.com.2 percent well below the levels observed before the food and fuel boom. pk) . can be expected to suffer more from rising food prices. rising food prices may be expected to adversely affect even the rural poor. There will be some households that may benefit from higher prices. Rising food prices may lead to income gains for net producers who are in rural areas.6 4. there may be households that are adversely affected. It is also important to investigate what would be the net impact of food price increases on poverty.8 0.77 12.5 6.accountancy.10 4.0 Source: World Economic Outlook April 2010 (IMF) Table‐9.5 3. Economic Adviser’s Wing.38 25.5 : Pakistan Inflation Profile 2009‐10 2001‐02 2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 Jul‐Apr 1.Poverty Table‐9.com. People’s Rep. General CPI 3.81 23.34% Food item weightage in the consumer basket (SPI) = about 70% Table‐9.6 4.94 57.49 6.49 (i) Food 2.37 3. who are food consumers and unlikely to be food producers.6 1.0 2. The effects of rising food prices will differ across households.55 7.1 6. Finance Division Food item weightage in the consumer basket (CPI) = 40. to the extent that net surplus producers tend to be the relatively well‐off.9 4.77 11.0 46. China Thailand Pakistan Share (%) 30.6 : Food Weights in CPI Economy China.4 Economies Projections 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2.0 20.71 40.58 23. Concerns over high prices are mounting because inflation eats into real incomes and expenditures and can undermine the gains from poverty reduction and human development that developing counties have 133 published by Accountancy (www.1 3.83 11. Rep of ‐ Share (%) 33.9 4.3 2.70 12.30 14.5 2.00 ‐ Economy Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taipei.02 10.4 : Summary of Inflation Average 2002 2003 1992‐ 2001 Advance 2.3 3.82 16. However.28 17.1 2.00 32. In this context. SPI 3.57 9.7 2.0 4.92 7.28 7.50 2.03 2.41 12. The food price increase should contribute to higher incomes for these net surplus producers.64 23. it is important to examine how different groups will be affected by rising food prices.5 10.1 Economies Emerging and Developing 8.58 6.00 42.34 Source: ADB Impact of rise in food prices on poverty The rise in food prices is worrisome precisely because food price inflation is the most aggressive of all taxes – it hurts the poor the most.96 Source.20 26.92 10. China India Indonesia Korea. Certainly the urban poor.83 6.2 2. of Hong Kong.8 1.54 3.0 6.01 12. 1 4th 58.7 : Share of food expenditure to total expenditure (percent) Quintile Bangladesh India Indonesia Philippines st 1 69. Prices and Inflation in developing Asia (ADB).3 64. During the last two recessions in the United States (in 1991 and 2001). 134 published by Accountancy (www.9 36. involving trade unions.3 62.9 59. while it took 30 and 48 months. India. It is perfectly clear that poorer population subgroups spend a larger share of their total expenditures on food than richer ones. In each of the four countries. April 2008 To the extent that some households produce (and consume) their own food.2 54.1 54.2 56. Nevertheless. However.Economic Survey 2009‐10 achieved over the last decade or so. Global Prospects Labour market will remain weak in the outlook. the household expenditure survey data used here suggest that for all quintile groups in all four countries. This will entail crucial choices about the pattern of development.accountancy. As a result. this is for the top two quintiles. those with a marketable surplus may even benefit. strong positive correlation exist between employment generation and poverty reduction. as seen from household expenditure survey data from Bangladesh. they will tend to be relatively shielded from increases in food prices. India.7 5th 45.1 59. the share of food in total expenditure tends to be around 25 percentage points less for the richest 20%. typically an average of around 70% or more of total rice expenditures is purchased in any given quintile group in rural areas.com.4 37. Indonesia. In the case of rice. for instance.4 58. The average share of food in total expenditure is inversely related to income across quintile groups. for example.4 Source: Special Report Food. employers’ organizations and others. The experience of previous recessions shows that employment recovery typically lags output growth by a significant margin. In order to gain a sense of the varying impact of increases in food prices on different subgroups of the population. Increasing opportunities for decent work is central to shaping an enabling environment for the achievement of the goals of the Millennium Declaration. A smaller percentage is purchased for some quintile groups in rural Bangladesh (a little les than 60%).7). In contrast. Indonesia and Philippines which may serve as a fair proxy for Pakistan (Table‐9. output started to recover after eight months.pk) . and Philippines. In fact. Recovery from the present crisis has only just begun and large output gaps remain characteristic of the situation in most major economies.0 63.6 2nd 66. the poorer population subgroups are more vulnerable to rising food prices Table‐9.2 3rd 63. and poverty reduction. is vital to finding the right balance of policies for employment creation. a majority of food consumption is purchased. a clear majority of the expenditure of the poorest 20% is on food. food expenditure shares by income quintile are examined in table below in case of Bangladesh.8 49. respectively.7 50. This will slow new hiring until output growth has become more robust.2 36. before unemployment rates were back to pre‐crisis levels. productivity growth. Employment – Poverty Scenario As a stylized fact.0 47. Dialogue. employment creation in developing countries is expected to lag output recovery.Poverty Labour market conditions in developing countries are expected to remain difficult in the outlook for three main reasons. iv) Safety Nets. 618. iii) Rural Development.6% 20. the shift to informal sector jobs during the crisis will likely be long lasting for many workers. from Rs. 234. 651. First most of the 47 million new workers who enter labour markets worldwide each year will be searching for jobs in developing countries. This will be difficult to reverse as observed in previous crises. Health and Population Planning registered growth. 200.760 billion for the year. ii) Human Development.2 billion which has increased from Rs. as social protection coverage is relatively limited and working poverty levels will increase. with Health representing the maximum YoY increase of 27. industry and services sector in Pakistan was 44.4 percent (Table‐8). In addition. i) Market Access and Community Services. An amount of Rs. Human Development (17.accountancy.49 percent) and Governance (45. Second. showing an uptrend of 5.0 billion was projected to be spent in FY 2009/10 which would be 6. This is a significant development in the employment perspective.1% and 35. In Asia alone for increase an estimated 51 million additional jobs will need to be created to absorb that region’s growing labour force during 2010 and 2011.6 percent followed by Education expenditure depicting a YoY increase of 14. given the highest employment elasticity in the services sector. 2009‐10 as compared to Rs. 104.7 billion during July‐ March 2009‐10 relative to Rs.12 percent.3 percent of estimated GDP for the current financial year. As regards Pakistan. 135 published by Accountancy (www. as in developed countries.com.9 billion during the same period of FY 2008‐09. all three sectors.pk) . In Human Development.e. An upward trend is observed in the expenditures of three categories.77 percent of GDP in FY 2001‐02 to 7. Pro‐Poor spending is significantly rising over recent years. Third. Share of agriculture. largely attributable to increase in Law & Order expenditure explained by the internal conflict and militancy compelling higher outlays on public safety and security.62 percent) between FY 2008‐09 (July‐March) and FY 2009‐10 (July‐March). This adds considerable pressure on earnings for those in vulnerable employment and will keep the level of working poverty high.5 billion in the corresponding period of previous financial year. especially in rural areas where job opportunities are already scarce.0 billion in the corresponding period of the previous financial year 2008‐09. Rural Development (14.3% during 2007‐08 compared with the respective PRSP‐II – Profile of Pro‐poor Expenditure PRSP pro‐poor expenditures are reported regularly under five broad categories i. on top of vulnerable employment.56%. whereas labour force employed in agriculture and industry increased in percentage terms it has decreased in the services sector in the year 2008‐09 over the year 2007‐08. Actual expenditure during July‐March FY 2009‐10 represents 75 percent of the projected pro‐poor expenditure for the whole FY 2009‐10 and represents 4. These five categories cover 17 pro‐poor sectors for tracking of budgetary expenditures. Education. and v) Governance. However. 71. the Services sector has recovered to a growth rate of 4.46 percent of GDP in FY 2008‐09 which remained well above the projected expenditure of Rs.6 billion was incurred on Human Development during July‐March.0 percent). An amount of Rs 860.01 percent of GDP. from 3. Aggregate pro‐poor spending for the first nine months of current financial year 2009‐10 amounts to Rs. A recurring pattern is the rise in expenditure related to Governance. 4 15 22. 17.4 27 31.9 141.93 4.9 7. Peoples Works 0.3 27.2 60 85 99.4 4.5 2. Within Safety Net. Rural Development holds the third largest share.7 5.4 1.6 0.7 1.6 28.4 47.4 6 5.1 187.2 860.4 1 2.01 0.3 271.3 12.02 1. 32.5 0.77 4.1 17.0 Sanitation/Environment II. Land Reclamation 1.7 4.3 1.5 16.1 426. Social Security& Welfare record an impressive growth of 56.5 166.3 0.5 4.5 III.8 103.6 10.4 3. Health 19.2 Community Services i. the Government of Pakistan is committed to gradually replace the subsidies with direct and targeted assistance to the poor and needy.3 3.com.8 122.9 Programme‐I**** xiv.3 0.4 0.3 13.4 152.2 53. Table 9.5 109.4 200.6 175.5 234.418 Programme‐II** IV.89 9.9 11.7 1.6 iv. Peoples Works 0 0 1.4 178.accountancy.5 xvi.3 316.3 78.5 22.1 5. Roads.5 Disasters xv.9 104.6 vii.5 22.6 4.1 4.5 136 82.2 7 6.3 billion in FY 2008‐9 to 27.1 2 7. Consistent decline in the outlays on Subsidies reflect a shift in resources towards programmes comprising Social Security and Welfare.2 11.2 62.5 22.2 53.6 104.44 percent.7 11.7 2.4 3.9 49.3 ix.6 3.7 70.7 63.1 15.3 256. Low Cost Housing 0 0.96 percent YoY decrease.63 4.5 41. 13. Education 66. Subsidies*** 4.28 percent which is mostly concentrated in Subsidies.3 0.0 As % of GDP 3.6 0.4 0.1 2.5 5.9 7.2 94 113.7 3.4 97.7 39.7 28 25 28.6 0. Safety Nets holds the maximum percentage share. 32.6 48. Governance 33 39 41.8 6.1 73.1 222.46 5.7 7. Water Supply & 4.77 1.8 2.7 116.7 35.5 billion in FY 2008‐09 (July‐March) to Rs.1 209 261.8 0. During July‐March.6 59.7 4. In Billion 09/10 (Jul‐ 09/10 Mar) Projected Actual I.1 22.0 62.4 6.6 76. Human Development 86.33 4.8 Administration Total 166. Under the IMF Stand By Arrangement in place since November 2008.8 4.8 59.7 162.3 4.2 22.pk) .5 220.5 121.2 276.3 16.9 88.7 xvii.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Safety Net shows a significant YoY decrease. in FY 2009‐10.7 240.7 1042 977. Law & Order 31 36.1 v.7 78.1 94 140.5 10. followed closely by Human Development.08 0 0.3 xi.8 60 51. Food Support 2 2 2.6 175. The proportionate shares of respective expenditure categories in Pro‐Poor spending for FY 2009‐10 illustrate a change from FY 2008‐09 (Table 9.4 36.6 15.4 17 11.8 : Social Sector and Poverty Related Expenditures Sectors 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 Actual Actual Actual Actual 05/06 Actual 06/07 Actual 07/08 Actual 08/09 Actual 08‐09 (Jul‐ Mar) Actual Rs.6 327. 18.9 1.1 88 104. Social Security & 3. showing 26.8 16.5 398.1 6 9.3 3.1 2.9 3.3 10.6 5.9 59.6 percent over the corresponding period of previous year. 136 published by Accountancy (www. Justice 2 2. Highways & 6.93 percent.9 8. Natural Calamities & 0.3 53.2 2.3 6.3 260. Expenditure on Safety Net moved down from Rs.8 128.1 6.3 34.7 66 97. Population Planning 1. Rural Development 24.3 10.9 191.8 0.4 10 4.5 Welfare xii.1 203.9 129.6 19.2 618 651. Safety Nets 11 15.8 151.2 44.5 V.4 153.81 4.5 29.1 55.3 3.3 0.5 3.5 vi.3 billion in FY 2009‐ 10 (July‐March) while on Social Security & Welfare. it increased from Rs.6 43.8 435.8 2 2.2 viii.5 2.7 43.1 billion in FY 2009‐10.8 50.7 50.1 3.7 2.9 19. Rural Development 12.9).3 4.3 3.8 74.01 * Agriculture sector has been included for tracking PRSP expenditures instead of irrigation with effect from FY 2008/09 ** Village electrification has been replaced with People Works Programme‐II in FY 2008/09 ***Food subsidy has been renamed as subsidy with effect from FY 2008/09 **** Khushal Pakistan Fund has been renamed as People Works Programme‐I from FY 2008/09 Source: Finance Division. 203.1 18.3 16.6 x.9 71.4 12.1 5 7.5 101.8 329. Agriculture* 10.5 1. Market Access and 11 16.8 7.2 Bridges ii.2 iii.28 percent.5 0 11.2 22.2 376. 166.9 18.5 6.6 38.1 2.2 5.5 37.4 39.2 0.8 Programme xiii.4 5.4 83. FY 2008‐09. 0 51.0 644. The questionnaire.08 100 100 Source: Finance Division During nine months of current financial year. Therefore.63 16. 14 billion was disbursed to 1. with the help of World Bank the Government has decided to reform the targeting process to minimize the inclusion and exclusion errors and give equal chance to each one for applying to the programme for benefits.37 V.e 36.9: Percentage share in aggregate Pro‐Poor expenditure Actual Sectors 2008/09 2009/10 (July‐March) (July‐March) I. it was decided by the Management board that the targeting may be done through the Parliamentarians to identify beneficiary families.53 11. Market Access and Community Services 60. there was an urgent need to provide relief to the poor. Market Access and Community Service holds the smallest share compared to other categories. The World Bank approved instrument named “Poverty Scorecard” based on Proxy Means Testing which has been adopted and a nationwide Poverty Survey was planned to identify the poor families. a test phase of the survey.57 % share 2008/09 2009/10 (July‐March) (July‐March) 9.e 14. Hence beneficiary identification through Parliamentarians was stopped on 30th of April 2009. represent an increase over the previous financial year.e 16. followed by Safety Nets. 70 million was allocated for the current financial year.8 billion were incurred up till March. 2009‐10.43 32.accountancy. However. it was felt that a more objective method of targeting the beneficiary families is needed. is used to determine their poverty status. An amount of Rs. an inclusion and exclusion criteria was devised. Safety Nets 203. The survey is carried out house to house thus providing an equal opportunity to all to apply for the BISP’s benefits.76 million beneficiaries in the shape of the cash grant of Rs 1000 per month.71 7. a total of Rs.7 Total 618.8 II. household characteristics and assets. which includes questions about the household members.44 36. Shares of Governance i.02 13.53 percent. In FY 2008/09. Governance 71.43 percent. Human Development holds the maximum proportionate share i.pk) . In this context. representing a decline of 7. Since.08 percent and Rural Development i. The said criteria were used by NADRA while processing the BISP’s application forms recommended by the parliamentarians.94 32.28 14.58 percent points higher than the previous year.7 III. Human Development 200.93 25. based on the information available with NADRA. 2010. the targeting of the beneficiaries was carried out through Federal and provincial parliamentarians since there was no poverty data in the country.5 158.4 percent points over the same period in previous financial year.9 104.1 94 IV.Poverty Table 9. Rural Development 82. 25. Data entry of the 15 surveyed districts has been 137 published by Accountancy (www. 2009‐10 to target 5 million families. in both the years. Expenditures amounting to Rs 17.5 235. financed by GoP has already been conducted in sixteen districts in four provinces and AJK/GB. 3. Reforms of the targeting process: poverty survey –a paradigm shift In pursuance of the international best practices.02 percent. Initially.com. Other Initiatives to Alleviate Poverty (i) Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) caters to the needs of the ‘poorest of the poor’ of the society not only in terms of cash assistance for day to day subsistence but also enabling them to exit the vicious cycle of poverty. (d) Health Insurance Health insurance is also a major component of this programme and will cover the entire family including household head and spouse. To carry out the evaluation processes. Upper Punjab & AJK. 2010. Approximately 600. 34 billion has been paid to 3. The policy benefit will cover full hospitalization.526 beneficiaries have been pre‐selected during these draws and those falling below the cut off score will be eligible for the loan. but others have been eliminated. consultations with different ministries and provincial governments are in process.com. As a result.729 earthquake affected families in Balochistan. (a) Emergency Relief Packages BISP is also implementing an Emergency Relief Package for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) of FATA. In this regard implementation in case of 20 beneficiaries was started in April. Khyber Pukhtunkhwa & Gilgit‐Baltistan & FATA. children up to 18 years. However in view of the fact that GOP is implementing a “Aghaz‐e‐Huqooq Balochistan”.pk) . one for each cluster. Five firms. Request for proposals (RFPs) have been issued to shortlisted survey firms.000 beneficiary families have been identified during the Pilot Phase of the Survey in the fifteen Districts. Sindh.17. Swat and earthquake affectees of Balochistan. daycare treatment and diagnostic tests. (b) The Rights Source (Waseela‐e‐Haq) Initiative BISP also initiated "Waseela‐e‐Haq" programme for providing the poor an opportunity of self‐ employment. the whole country. A total of Rs. Population Census Organization has been entrusted the task. 138 published by Accountancy (www. are being hired following Quality and Cost Selection (QCBS) method. A nationwide survey is targeted to be launched by June 2010 with the financial support of the World Bank. Southern Punjab. 4. The second phase of the skill development programme will be provision of microfinance for poor families to help them run small businesses. quantitative and qualitative assessments will be made through hiring of separate firms for both the exercises. Such present beneficiaries in these districts who fall below the cut‐off score will continue to be BISP beneficiaries. This one time loan is conditional and the beneficiary will have to spend it for some income generating purpose. Six draws have been held so far. For the Poverty Survey. number of evaluation activities will be carried out ensuring therein that participating Organizations have followed the process outlined in the Targeting Manual of the BISP. 300.965 families from FATA and Bajaur and Rs. and unmarried daughters aged 18 and above. During the targeting process.000/‐. This insurance policy will also provide accident compensation for earning members of the family. One beneficiary has been selected out of the each sub group through a computerized draw for award of a cash loan of Rs. pregnancy. All those falling at or below the cut off point will be paid BISP benefits. one member from each qualifying household will be equipped with technical and vocational skills making them the earning hands. except Balochsitan.accountancy. it has been decided to complete the survey in the Balochistan by 31st May 2010.Economic Survey 2009‐10 completed and a cut‐off score has been decided by the BISP Management Board at 16. The clusters have been offered for competitive biding to conduct the survey. 28 billion has been paid to 3. has been divided into five clusters namely. (c) Vocational Training Product In order to transform the poor segment of society from depending upon the government’s monthly financial assistance to self‐reliance. For this. dependent parents. (iv) Employees’ Old Age Benefits Institution (EOBI) Employees’ Old Age Benefits Institution (EOBI) provides monetary benefits to the old age workers through different programmes including Old Age Pension. FY 2009/10 compared to an expenditure of Rs. 2. 3. water supply. needy. orphans. During the first half of FY 2009‐10. Of the total Zakat disbursements. creed or race. This reflects a decline in number of beneficiaries by 22.29 through Old Age Grants. with the highest number of schemes under Road i.246 from 549. 904 schemes were approved under PWP I.8 percent from 1.421 million during the same period. sanitation and bulldozers hours facilities to the rural poor. reflecting a YoY increase of 15. PBM provides assistance under different programmes and schemes such as Food Support Programme (FSP).124 in the same period of current financial year. Number of beneficiaries recorded a decrease of 25 percent. Vocational Training Institutes/ Dastkari Schools (VTIs). Individual Financial Assistance (IFA). EOBI disbursed an amount of Rs. 320 followed by 272 schemes related to Water Supply and 209 electrification schemes. 1.pk) . about 65 percent of the total amount was distributed through Old Age Pension.110. Institutional Rehabilitation through Civil Society Wing (CSW).26.7 percent. FY 2009‐10. Invalidity Pension. from 538. and Marriage assistance through Regular Zakat Programme and other Zakat Programme and National Level Schemes.9 percent. billion has been utilized during July‐March.65 billion during July‐March FY 2009‐10 relative to Rs. Budget allocated for FY 2009/10 stood at Rs 35. education.42 percent. gas. 52.7 billion incurred in the corresponding period of FY 2008‐09.7 million was disbursed under different programmes of Zakat during July‐March FY 2009‐10 as compared to Rs. Health Care. (iii) Pakistan Bait‐ul‐ Mal (PBM) Pakistan Bait‐ul‐Mal (PBM) disburses to the destitute. 2. FY 2009‐10. health.050 during July‐March in the previous financial year to 404. telephone. 139 published by Accountancy (www.25 percent under Other Zakat Programmes and 30 percent under National Level Schemes during July‐ March. Up till March. Number of beneficiaries up‐till third quarter of current financial year increased to 590. Social Welfare/rehabilitation.264 over the same period in the current financial year. During July‐March.0 billion out of which Rs 31. FY 2008/09 registering a decrease of 46 percent.437. a major component of Pakistan Bait‐ ul‐Mal into Benazir Income Support Programme since FY 2008‐09. farm to market roads. A total of Rs.7 billion over the same period in the previous financial year.16 percent through Survivors’ Pension. 2010.2 billion compared to Rs. 33.8 billion during the same period in FY 2008‐09. showing an upward trend of 7. (v) Zakat Zakat provides financial assistance such as Guzara Allowance. Educational Stipends. PBM disbursed an amount of Rs. 1. 1.com.accountancy. invalids and infirm irrespective of their gender.e.49 through Invalidity Pension and . 17. representing YoY increase of 16 percent. marking a decrease of 38.Poverty (ii) Peoples’ Works Programme (PWP) ‐I & II People’s Works Programme‐I & II cover small development schemes for provision of electricity. National Center for Rehabilitation of Child Labour (NCRCL).768.449 during the same period in the previous financial year. Survivors Pension and Old Age Grants. Eid grants.7 percent was disbursed under Regular Zakat Programmes. caste. widows.569 during July‐March FY 2008‐09 to 1. The decline in disbursements and number of beneficiaries is caused by the merger of Food Support Scheme. from 1.8 7.9 5.8 26.5 China (urban) 25.1 30.879 number of beneficiaries up till second quarter of previous financial year to 1. Poverty‐inequality‐household consumption Rising inequality can adversely affect the speed of poverty reduction with growth.3 66.2 31.2 5.0 Indonesia (urban) 32.8 percent in the number of active savers.9 5.732.4 1.10 shows that the Gini coefficient increased between 1990 and the mid‐2000s in 9 of 15 countries examined.045 number of beneficiaries during the corresponding period of the current financial year. Number of active borrowers increased by 5. FY2009‐10.2 0.2 6.6 38.7 billion were made during July‐December.5 0.1 9. This translates into an increase of 34. Credit disbursements under Microcredit.38 percent during July‐December.3 3.4 0.8 0. 34.1 9. Micro‐Savings and Micro‐Insurance components of Microfinance depict growth in terms of number of active savers and policy holders.340 during July‐December FY 2008‐09 to Rs.9 4.6 37.Economic Survey 2009‐10 (vi) Microfinance Microfinance is recognized as an effective tool to pull the poor and vulnerable out of poverty and vulnerability.9 ‐3.52 percent in the number of active policy holders while the value of sum insured has moved up from Rs.10 : Inequality and household consumption growth between 1990 and the mid‐2000s Country Gini Coefficient (%) Average Annual Growth Counterfactual additional poverty Rate (%) reduction (in million) Initial Final Household GDP per No change in Household consumptio capita inequality consumption grew n per capita at an additional 1% per year Bangladesh 26.7 29.539 million during July‐December of the current financial year.7 billion during the same period. Rural Support Programmes (RSPs).pk) .5 9.6 34.7 China (rural) 30.826.3 1.5 Cambodia 38.1 36. On the other hand the rate of growth of household consumption was zero or negative in three countries the Islamic Republic of Iran. Table‐9.3 India (urban) 35.0 2.6 35. The three exceptions were the Philippines where both grew at the same rate and urban Indonesia and Pakistan where average household consumption grew faster than per capita GDP. Table 10 shows that in all but three countries the rate of GDP growth exceeded the rate of growth of per capita household consumption during the period considered.5 3.3 ‐0. Microfinance Institutions (MFIs).6 Indonesia (rural) 27. FY 2008‐09 showing an improvement of 16. amounting to Rs 21.2 2.6 0.0 (Islamic Republic of) 140 published by Accountancy (www.0 2. Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation.accountancy.8 39.9 1. It is provided as package through Microfinance Banks (MFBs).2 3.8 percent during July‐ December FY 2009‐10 over the same period in the previous financial year.0 Iran 43. 43.6 6. FY 2009‐10 as compared to Rs 18. It enables the poor to enhance their income earning capacity and empower them. the increase was higher in urban than in rural areas.3 41. Table 9.1 India (rural) 30. Microfinance comprises Microcredit.0 9.9 4. especially women.04 percent.com. and Others including Commercial Financial Institutions (CFIs) and Non‐ government Organizations (NGOs).3 54. Micro‐savings and Micro‐Insurance.6 1. Micro Insurance registered a YoY increase of 47. Micro‐Savings recorded an increase of 58. 6 1.accountancy.1 1.11 : Goa1‐ Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger – Pakistan Case Indicators Definition Proportion of Head‐count index based on the population below official poverty line of Rs 673.0 Turkey 43.5 3.0 Russian Federation 48.2 3. Pakistan is committed to the achievement of interalia.0 ‐13.3 6.8 5.2 Weighted average 32.0 2.6 0.9 Viet Nam 35.7 37.6 1. poverty reduction based on national poverty line was on track up to 2005‐06 and estimated to be so hence after up to 2007‐08.0 1.0 Median 34.6 0.7 ‐3.9 1.8 0. 1.6 million between 1981 and 2005.7 4.2 1.1 0.7 3.2 Sri Lanka 32.4 billion poor people live in South Asian countries.2 1.7 6.pk) .8 42.4 1.9 ‐0. Eradicate extreme poverty & hunger Target: Halve between 1990 and 2015.2 31.4 ‐0. MD goal 1: As shown in table below.5 Lao People’s 30.9 ‐0.9 0.2 0.10 : Inequality and household consumption growth between 1990 and the mid‐2000s Country Gini Coefficient (%) Average Annual Growth Counterfactual additional poverty Rate (%) reduction (in million) Initial Final Household GDP per No change in Household consumptio capita inequality consumption grew n per capita at an additional 1% per year Kazakhstan 35.0 0.2 ‐0. the speed of poverty reduction would have been faster in the absence of the world economic crisis.6 0.8 3.6 43. UN.6 1.6 44.9 23.5 23.3 33.com.0 Philippines 40.3 6.6 2.4 32.6 Thailand 43.5 41.3 37.5 2.4 172.0 Total (15 countries) 53.3 Democratic Republic Pakistan 33.9 3.3 37. Prospects for further reduction were shadowed by the world economic crisis and as in case of most world economies. the proportion of people whose income is less than $ 1 a day ‐‐‐‐ Pakistan case.Poverty Table‐9.2 0.2 34. Table‐9.e.9 3. The absolute number of people living in extreme poverty increased from 548.5 0.0 1. 141 published by Accountancy (www.3 million to 595. Achievement of MD Goal 1.3 MTDF Target 2009‐10 MDG Target 2015 21 13 Source: Planning & Development Division MD Goal 1 (Poverty & Hunger) in South Asian Perspective South Asia is the developing sub‐region with the largest number of poor people: 43 percent of the developing world’s i.1 34.0 Source: Economic & Social Survey of Asia & Pacific 2010 ESCAP.54 the calorie based per capita per month in 1998‐99 food plus non‐ prices consistent with attainment food poverty line of 2350 calories per adult equivalent per day 90‐91 2000‐01 2004‐05 2005‐06 26. 4 51 26.2 49.3 ‐6.3 ‐1. Development Research Group (2009) a: By 2005‐06. skill development and establishment of small businesses thus improving the scope for higher future income. Income inequalities have grown steadily in India since the early 1980s. Bangladesh and Pakistan. which recorded annual rates of growth of G DP per capita above 5 percent in 2000‐06. the poverty headcount fell by 18 percentage points. Implications for Poverty Overseas migration and the resulting remittances have served dual objectives world wide. ie. in terms of progress in meeting the Millennium Development Goal target of halving extreme poverty by 2015. including Bangladesh. easing pressure on employment market and providing foreign exchange for balance of payments as well as budgetary support.3 41. Remittances. Remittances supplement the household income. such growth has not been sufficiently inclusive and pro‐poor to reduce the absolute number of persons living in poverty. 1990 and 2005. India.25 a day in countries of South Asia. from 60 percent in 1981 to 42 percent in 2005. where the estimated proportion of people living below the $1. economic growth has been relatively high in the three largest countries in the region.3 ‐16. 1981. In recent years.5 Pakistan 72. South Asian countries have been unable to generate sufficient decent work opportunities to lift working poor people out of poverty.7 ‐1.1 India 59. India.25 a day poverty line increased from 44 percent in 1981 to 51 percent in 2005.5 ‐4.3 ‐0.25 a day Annual rate of achieve the achieve the 2015 change target target Country 1981 1990 2005 Target (1990‐2005) (2005‐2015) (2005‐2015) Nepal ‐ 77 54.4 Asia) Source: World Bank. Table‐12 shows that.4 51. Table‐12 : Proportion of the population living on less than $1.5 Bangladesh 44.2 Total (South 59. Nepal and Sri Lanka and Pakistan will need higher rates of poverty reduction to meet the challenge. the sub‐region saw the proportion of those living in extreme poverty decline in relative terms.8 Bhutan 47.7 38.5 24.8 51.9 50.4 ‐15.6 ‐14.8 ‐3. uplift life standard and thus reduce absolute poverty. with the exception of Bangladesh.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Rates of population growth in these countries have remained high and have led to an enlargement of both the total population as well as the numbers living in extreme poverty. Remittances help the household to increase their consumption expenditure on food.com. Pakistan also experienced a decline in the headcount index from 73 to 23 percent during the same period. In India alone.9 ‐1.3 a a Sri Lanka 31 15 10.9 0. As a result.5 ‐2.5 ‐2. using 1990 as the baseline.6 ‐7.7 40.5 ‐2. The headcount index declined in almost all countries with data on income poverty.8 25.accountancy.1 ‐25. 142 published by Accountancy (www.6 29.2 ‐3. The same pattern can be observed in Bangladesh. several countries in the region.3 7.6 25. develop expenditure on housing.3 25. the country had achieved the 2015 target of halving poverty.5 22. It is in this context that countries like Philippine have promoted overseas migration as an industry.5 ‐4. in both urban areas. However.9 58. Yet.9 ‐4.pk) . from a high of 59 percent in 1981 to 40 percent in 2005. and the change needed to reach the 2015 target (percentage) Annual rate of Proportion living Change change on less than needed to needed to $1. The total remittances inflows between 1990‐99 and 2009‐ 10 have amounted to $62. Remittance initiative which encouraged transmittal of remittances through formally recorded channels.pk) .0 billion.accountancy. the SME sector. This massive inflow of foreign remittances. Also the depreciation of the Pakistan rupee attracted remittance inflows for investment purposes. when translated into increased consumption expenditures and greater employment opportunities generated through greater investments in the construction industry. other businesses and consumption demand contributed to the decline in poverty in the country. Jump in remittances is more likely to have been a result of Government intervention such as the Pakistan. 143 published by Accountancy (www.Poverty Remittances from expatriate Pakistanis are believed and empirically proved to have had a major impact on the reduction in the incidence of poverty.com. The data shows that literacy remains higher in urban areas (74%) than in rural areas (48%). and is more prevalent for men (69%) compared to women (45%).accountancy.1. literacy rate in Punjab stood at (59 %).5 ‐ : not available Source: World Bank. Pakistan’s indicators on this front continue to rank at the bottom end of global rankings. UNDP. Pakistan’s standing on this front has historically been poor. It is a vital investment for human and economic development. Nepal spends a substantial fraction more than Pakistan on education. Unfortunately. as can be seen in Table 10.0 China ‐ 93. However.Education 10 It is widely acknowledged that education is amongst the single most important factor contributing to poverty alleviation. Education plays an overarching role and has a cross cutting impact on all aspects of human life.3 ‐ Indonesia 3.2 57.1 Nepal 3. Sindh 145 published by Accountancy (www.1 Literacy According to the latest Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) Survey 2008‐09.6 55. While the literacy rate has improved gradually over a period. When analyzed provincially. only Bangladesh has a worse outcome on both indicators.0 Sri Lanka … 90. FBS.7 92.1: Comparison of Public Sector Spending on Education Public Sector Spending Literacy rate Country (As % GDP) in (%) Bangladesh 2. Within the region. it is evident from the data that overall female literacy is rising over time. the outcome with regard to literacy levels is not surprising.com. Human Capital Development has been accorded amongst the highest priorities in the government’s Nine Point Plan of 2008.3 92.1 57. Given this dismal state of affairs. Table 10.7 India 3. while its literacy rate is marginally higher. the overall literacy rate (age 10 years and above) is 57% (69% for male and 45% for female) compared to 56% (69% for male and 44% for female) for 2007‐08. but progress is uneven across the provinces.pk) . spending by the public sector as well as literacy rate.5 ‐ Vietnam 5. UNESCO.6 Thailand 4. 10.2 ‐ Malaysia 4. Ministry of Education Figures for latest available year With public spending on education as a percentage of GDP amongst the lowest in the chosen sample.5 ‐ Iran 5.9 Pakistan 2. 88 0.69 0.90 0.45 0. The literacy rate of Sind and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has improved considerably during 2007‐08 to 2008‐09 (Table 10.72 0. Table 10. the overall school attendance. with Sindh recording the highest increase. A GPI of more than 1 Net Enrolment Rate refers to the number of students aged 5‐9 years that are enrolled in a primary school. followed by both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well as Balochistan.63 0.42 0. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (50%) and Balochistan at (45%).83 0.72 0.95 0.90 0. 146 published by Accountancy (www.2: Literacy Rate 10 yrs+.55 0.61 0.38 0.pk) .49 0.accountancy.90 0.2). According to the data. All the provinces have shown an increasing trend. which is the number of children attending primary school (irrespective of age) divided by the number of children who ought to be attending. as measured by the Net Enrolment Rate (NER)1.84 0.64 0.63 0.Economic Survey 2009‐10 (59%).64 Source: Pakistan Social & Living Standard Measurement Survey 2008‐09 The Gender Parity Index (GPI) is the ratio of female enrolment to male enrolment.83 0.87 Punjab Male 67 70 69 106 102 102 64 62 64 Female 48 48 50 95 92 92 59 59 60 Both 58 59 59 100 97 97 62 61 62 GPI 0.com.94 Sindh Male 67 69 71 88 87 93 56 55 57 Female 42 42 45 68 72 75 43 46 49 Both 55 56 59 79 80 84 50 51 54 GPI 0.73 0. sometimes referred to as the participation rate.92 0.58 0.82 0. for 2008‐09 was 57% as compared to 55% in 2007‐08.77 0. the Gross Enrolment Rate (GER).67 0.75 0.65 0.2).37 0.64 Balochistan Male 58 66 62 89 88 93 49 47 51 Female 22 23 23 52 59 54 32 35 36 Both 42 46 45 72 75 75 41 41 44 GPI 0.65 0. divided by the number of children in the age group for that level of education. GER & NER Trend in Pakistan & Gender Parity Index (GPI) Literacy rates GER Primary (age 5‐9) NER Primary (age 5‐9) (10 years & above) REGION/ PROVINCE 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 Pakistan Male 67 69 69 99 97 99 60 59 61 Female 42 44 45 81 83 83 51 52 54 Both 55 56 57 91 91 91 56 55 57 Rural 45 49 48 84 83 85 52 51 53 Urban 72 71 74 106 106 106 66 66 68 GPI 0.77 0. in case of both male and female saw no change and remained at 91% between 2007‐08 and 2008‐09.69 0.74 0.85 0.75 0.70 0. Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have shown noticeable increase in the respective period (Table 10.80 Khyber Male 67 68 69 96 94 102 56 55 58 Pakhtunkhwa Female 28 33 31 67 71 70 41 41 45 Both 47 49 50 82 83 87 49 49 52 GPI 0.35 0.63 0.77 0. Nationally.86 0. 919 Middle Schools with 320.72) followed by Sindh (0. Prep or Kachi classes of children having age of 3‐4 years.238 Degree Colleges with 21.316 Teachers are functional (Table 10. it is estimated to increase by 2.426 million) has been observed and during 2009‐10 .322 Secondary Schools with 439. 1.810 in 2007‐08.6 percent.37).414 million) in 2008‐09 over 2007‐08 (5.63).3).A decrease of 0. 3.334 Teachers are functional (Table 10.2 Educational Institutions and enrolment i) Pre‐Primary Education Pre‐Primary Education is an important component of Early Childhood Education (ECE). An increase of 0.434 million) in 2008‐09 over 2007‐08 (8. The GPI for Pakistan as a whole in 2008‐09. 147 published by Accountancy (www. vi) Degree Colleges Education (Classes XIII‐XIV) An enrolment of 458. it is estimated to increase by 5.Education one indicates that.2 percent.291 Higher Secondary Schools / Inter Colleges with 76. An increase of 2.360 million) has been observed and during 2009‐10.2 % in middle enrolment (5.147 million is estimated in 2009‐10 over 1. there is more than one female.3).64 in 2007‐08. in proportion to every male in the school. is 0. See (Table 10.690 in 2007‐08. ii) Primary Education (Classes I – V) A number of 156.2).218 million) has been observed and during 2009‐10.3). The lower GPI with a decreasing tendency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa deserves attention at both the federal and provincial levels.pk) .6 % in Primary enrolment (18.An increase of 2.835 students is expected during 2009‐10 in Degree Colleges over 429.3 percent. In order to boost‐up higher education four new universities have been established during the year 2009‐10 making the total number to 132 universities with 50.3) .com. Province‐wise GPI is high in Punjab (0.468 million) in 2008‐09 over 2007‐08 (18.480 Teachers are functional (Table 10.364 is estimated in 2009‐10 in Higher Education over 803. v) Higher Secondary / Inter Colleges (Classes XI‐XII) An enrolment of 1.484 million) has been observed and during 2009‐10.3). 10. it is estimated to increase by 0. it is estimated to increase by 1.653 Primary Schools with 465. iv) Secondary Education (Classes IX‐X) A number 24.176 Teachers are functional (Table 10.6 percent.6 % in Pre‐Primary enrolment (8. 78 new schools / Inter Colleges have been added since July 2008.556 million) in 2008‐09 over 2007‐08 (2.65 compared to 0.184 Teachers are functional (Table 10.251 in 2008‐09 and 383.accountancy. iii) Middle Education (Classes VI‐VIII) A number 40. vii) Universities Education (Classes XV onwards) An enrolment of 948.9 % in middle enrolment (2. (Table 10.825 Teachers in both Private and Public Sectors (Table 10.3) and 205 new Degree Colleges have been added since July 2008.45) and Balochistan (0.3) .074 million in 2008‐09 and 959.507 in 2008‐09. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (0. Details may be seen in Table‐10.223 76.544 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐ 18.552 227.468 18.e.pk) .604 465.101 1. 33.769 In % 10.024 2. 37% without latrines and around 60% schools are without electricity.074.9% without drinking water facility.378 8. Islamabad.096 18.3 Missing Facilities in Public School The Poor quality of existing learning environment is evident from the fact that a large number of schools are missing basic infrastructure i.com.197 8.213 3.414.480 323.448 1. 37. Ministry of Education.113 9.117 3.826 8.968 226.456 320.548 5.739 226.719 Balochistan 681 7.385 803.611 320.829 40.275 20.653 156.072 FATA 908 1.468.092 Total 1.334 469.888 13.151 Middle 5.186 2.322 24.932 439.7% 33.147.640 ICT 0 15 7 50 8 Total Pakistan 17.5: 148 published by Accountancy (www. as done in Table 10.240 22.4: Table 10.434.807 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 2009‐10 (E) 429.316 447.445.4: Missing Facilities in Government Schools 2008‐09 Without Without Without Without Without Province/ Area Boundary Drinking Building Latrine Electricity Wall Water Punjab 505 13.669 24. existing schools should be upgrade with the provision of necessary infrastructure to improve both output and quality of education.9% 59.083 Gilgit‐Baltistan 183 1.069 1.084 1. if we analyse them from urban‐rural angle.835 1.893 50.825 Sindh 11.251 458.690 Inter Degree 383.291 3.972 P: Provisional E: Estimated Source: Pakistan Education Statistics 2007‐08.582 157.806 AJK 2.072 1.407 156.274 54.574.964 24.564 37. The missing facilities in public schools become more glaring.616 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 1.656 Primary* Mosque Higher Sec.029 7.176 21.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 10.157 5. Enrolment and Teachers by Level Enrolment Institutions Teachers Year 2008‐09 2009‐10 2008‐09 2009‐10 2008‐09 2007‐08 2007‐08 2007‐08 (P) (E) (P) (E) (P) Pre‐Primary 8.551 26.202 1.810 Colleges Universities.425 9.839 36.825 56.9% 36.484.426.7% schools up to elementary level are without boundary wall.184 78.824 High 2.396.323 1.623.360.364 452. 741.279 14.589 23./ 959.074 3.822 429.234 1.556.714.346 38.705 4.238 1.9% 37.373.882 1.507 948.919 41.3: Number of Mainstream Institutions. EMIS‐ MoE Islamabad 10.399 74.390 4.accountancy.180.588 39.364 124 129 132 46.498 3.315 1.247 40.846 96.764 61. 2008‐09 and 2009‐10.537 2.345.971 21.037.470 26.699.419 8.689 4. For higher accessibility of education particularly for girls in low income household and to enhance the enrolment.6% Source: NEMIS 2008‐09 AEPAM.218.116 10.996 59. 6 149 published by Accountancy (www. Pakistan allocated 2.769 In Percentage 35.1% Source: NEMIS 2008‐09 AEPAM.7% 40. 10.5% 60.026 52.47% in 2007‐08. According to UNESCO’s EFA Global Monitoring Report 2009. 2.3% in India. 5.2% in Nepal.274 In Percentage 27.817 54.2% in Iran and 8.2% In Number 9.160 96.1% 38.179 52. According to official data.5% 37. in other countries of the region was 2. the Public Sector expenditure on Education as percentage of GDP.248 61. 3.2% In Number 9.6% in Bangladesh.pk) .1 Public Expenditure (as %) of GDP 3 2.accountancy.3% of GDP in Maldives.10 2.9% 40.4 Financing of Education in the Public Sector Public Expenditure on Education as percentage to GDP is lowest in Pakistan as compared to other countries of the South Asian region.1% in 2008‐09 and 2.609 85.47 2.5 0 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 Source: Ministry of Education The breakup of investment in education by the Federal Government and the Provinces for the year 2009‐10 is given in the Table 10.6% 34.5 2 1.com.0 % in 2009‐10 which shows persistent declining trend (Fig‐10. Islamabad.083 59. Ministry of Education.24 2.5: Missing Facilities Pakistan: Urban/Rural Disparities 2008‐09 Schools without Facilities Urban Rural Total Electricity Water Latrine Boundary Wall In Number 11.763 50.Education Table 10.2% 38.05 2008‐09 2009‐10 0. 3.5% of GDP during 2006‐07.2% In Number 2.8% 65. Fig‐10. 2.846 In Percentage 30.996 In Percentage 6.1).50 2.5 1 2. 008.295.755 Source: Ministry of Education 10.725.090 5.864 53.939. in million) Total 9.118.222 Provincial Governments Government of Punjab 24.738 AJ&K 3.143.775.5 National Education Policy 2009 The new National Education Policy (NEP) 2009 has been formulated after lengthy deliberation initiated way back in 2005.33 32.com.271 Balochistan 8.819 4.374.664.739 72.500.411.678 23.830 Total Provinces & District Governments 171.570.714. A shift has been made by making national policy a truly ‘national’ rather than a federal matter. Cabinet in its meeting held on September 9th.910 (Rs.205.311. which endorsed most of the policy actions contained in NEP 2009.076 49.673.293.081 Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 2.443 85. Finally.949 102. MoE also made a presentation before the National Assembly Standing Committee on Education.995.408.534.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 10.accountancy.516.936.589 6.944.218. NEP formulation process remained almost dormant during the years 2007 and 2008.579 6.000 10.059.106.678.233.296 19.919.312 24.450 1. 2009 approved NEP 2009.503 District Government** Punjab 66.726.663. 150 published by Accountancy (www.929.000 3.058 Sindh 31.127 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 21.000.339 82.081 4.670 1.730 Government of Balochistan 2.962.665 Higher Education Commission 21. which was considered by the Federal Cabinet on 8th April 2009.573.333 Grand Total Federal. After establishing consensus at aforesaid IPEM meeting.034 142.421.413.374 Total District Governments 128.985 Total (Provinces) 43.6: Summary of Public Sector Budgetary Allocation for Education 2009‐10* Federal Government Current Ministry of Education 3.500.223.460 8.516.89 76.500.133 6.000 316. owing to fluctuating political situation.832.284 1.450 726.192.794.068.000 Federal Government Education Institution in Cantonment 1.324.000 18.450 Social Welfare & Special Education Division (DG SE and PBM) 410.000 14.790 1.318 784.110 224.pk) .401.340 National Vocational & Technical Education Commission 226.535.930. For this.707 Government of Sindh 13.655 44.081 722.797 5.020.778.034 2.718.702.000 Other Federal Ministries/Divisions/Organizations 6.000 1.555 * : Tentative Statement ** : Provisional data based on projection Development 5. The present Government re‐activated the NEP process and convened 15th Inter‐Provincial Education Ministers (IPEM) Meeting in February 2009 at Islamabad to share the draft NEP and getting implementing partners ‐ new political and bureaucratic leadership of education departments of provinces as well as other federating units on board.834 14.500. Provincial & District Governments 215.026.000 2.200 300.794. The Honourable Prime Minister directed Ministry of Education (MoE) to share the Policy document with all stakeholders for evolving more broad‐based policy actions.157 37. a summary for the Cabinet on “National Education Policy 2009” (NEP 2009) was submitted to Cabinet Division in early March 2009.716 Gilgit Baltistan 1.237.556 Total (Federal) 43.354 39.760 and Garrisons Federally Administered Tribal Areas 4.379.863 8. Governance. with facilitation and coordination at federal level. some distinct features of the policy are mentioned as under: I.Education it has been recommended that the Inter‐Provincial Education Ministers’ (IPEM) Conference. The implementation of the Policy shall be the responsibility of respective Provincial/Area Education Departments with overall supervision of Inter‐ Provincial Education Ministers’ forum which will also be the competent authority for any periodic monitoring and additions/ amendments in the Policy. facilitation and capacity building by MoE. x Primary education official age shall be 6 to 10 years. where required. x A system for donor harmonization for aid‐effectiveness and improved coordination between development partners and government shall be developed. x Sector Planning in Education shall be promoted and each Provincial/ Area Education Department shall develop its sector/ sub‐sector plan. x Every child. x Waiver of maximum age limit for recruitment of female teachers. Quality & Relevance: x The Government shall allocate 7% of GDP to education by 2015 and necessary enactment shall be made for this purpose. as and when required. Box‐1: Salient Features of NEP 2009 Apart from due emphasis on governance issues and an implementation framework. shall be allotted a unique ID that will continue throughout his or her academic career. with representation of all the federating units. x Equity in Education (gender. As per Policy document chapter 9 “Implementation Framework”. x Access will be extended by ensuring availability of Technical and Vocational Education (TVE) at district and tehsil levels. x Fragmented governance of education at federal and provincial levels including literacy shall be managed under one organization. with full support.accountancy. x Governments shall establish “Apna Ghar” residential schools in each province to provide free high quality education facilities to poor students. implementation strategies and plans are to be prepared by the provincial and area Governments. 151 published by Accountancy (www.pk) . wherever required. Relevance to Labour Market shall be ensured. x Enrolment in higher education sector shall be raised from existing 4.7 percent to 10 percent by 2015 and 15 percent by 2020. will be the highest body to oversee progress of education in the country. II. x Grades 11 and 12 shall not be part of the college education and merged into the school education. on admission in Grade I. For salient features of NEP 2009 see Box‐1. Access & Equity x Dakar EFA Goals and MDGs relating to Education shall be achieved by 2015.com. geographical Urban‐Rural areas) shall be promoted. x The definition of “free education” shall include all education related costs. x Introduction of Early Childhood Education (3‐5 years) and encouraging inclusive and child‐friendly education. com. x Matric‐Tech stream shall be re‐introduced and scheme of studies revised accordingly. innovation and promotion of research and development (R&D) culture are hall marks of NEP 2009. x Teacher training arrangements. processes and outcomes shall be established. Higher Secondary. x Minimum National Standards for educational inputs. x The policy proposes National Qualifications Framework (NQF) with a changed program structure that encompasses all qualifications in the country.accountancy. the Policy limits the federal role as facilitator and coordinator in the implementation of NEP. x In order to bridge Public‐Private divide. professional development. x Deeni Madaris shall be mainstreamed by introducing contemporary studies alongside the curricula of Deeni Madaris. x Sports activities shall be organized at the Secondary. Following are the four main components of the implementation process: x Institutionalisation of the Inter‐Provincial Education Ministers’ (IPEM) Forum x Prioritisation of recommendations of NEP for immediate action at federal and provincial levels i. accreditation and certification procedures shall be standardised and institutionalised.pk) .e. In this context. x Examinations systems shall be standardised to reduce differentials across students appearing in different boards of examinations. x Harmonisation of donors’ assistance for Education 152 published by Accountancy (www. with legal mandate to oversee implementation of NEP and making amendments in it. x Curriculum Wing of Ministry of Education and provincial textbook boards shall ensure elimination of all types of gender biases from textbooks. x Agreement on coordination mechanism between federal and provincial governments. governments shall take steps to bring harmony through common standards. National Education Policy (NEP) 2009 considers federal‐provincial ownership and effective coordination within the basic principle of provincial autonomy. x Use of Information Communication Technologies in Education shall be promoted. Also adequate representation of females shall be ensured in all curriculum and textbooks review committees. x Career Counselling at secondary and higher secondary level shall be initiated. x Inter‐Provincial Education Ministers’ (IPEM) forum shall be institutionalized. The Policy provides broad Implementation framework to guide the process of Implementation. promotions and postings are based on merit alone. x Matching with labour market. when required.Economic Survey 2009‐10 x Separate academic & educational management cadres with specified training and qualification requirements shall be introduced. both academic and vocational/technical. x Governments shall take steps to ensure that teacher recruitment. x A well regulated system of competitive publishing of textbooks and learning materials shall be introduced. x The curriculum development and review process shall be standardised and institutionalised. develop linkages with industry. what areas from the policy need to be prioritized in the 1st phase of implementation. College and University levels. as key to successful implementation of the NEP. quality and regulatory regimes. avoiding overlapping/duplication for realization of objectives. Inter‐Provincial Standing Committee on Textbooks 4. in addition to supporting HEC scholars also support the local universities in upgrading the infrastructure of research facilities at universities particularly laboratory equipment.com. Following areas have been prioritized:‐ 1.765 MS leading to Ph. In this respect.7. Institutionalization of IPEM (already explained above) 2.accountancy. HEC has awarded 1. the major thrust of programs in this area have been primarily aimed at improving the academic qualifications of university faculty. Higher Education Commission has awarded Post Doctorate scholarships to 503 university teachers.pk) .6 Human Resource Development Human resource development is playing a vital and paramount role in the economic development of any county. In addition. is to synchronize and channelize their support to have maximum benefit. 153 published by Accountancy (www. the Higher Education Commission (HEC) has made significant progress. laid down in NEP 2009.D scholarships are under Indigenous Programs. whereas the trend of increase in the number of Public and Private sector Universities/Degree Awarding Institutions (DAI) is shown in Fig‐10. 10. These scholars have joined reputable Pakistani Universities and R&D organizations in the Public and Private Sector. 11021 faculty members and senior university administrators have been trained through different long and short term courses.653 post graduate scholarships. It is pertinent to mention here that HEC’s local scholarship programmes. The detail in this regard is given in Table‐10. National Authority for Standards of Education 3.426 undergraduate and 6.6‐1 Higher Education Commission Higher education plays a pivotal role in making an economy knowledge based and intellectual capital oriented that finally contributes as driving force for innovation and creativity in this age of globalization where sound technological base provides rapid strides in development through rational allocation of resources for competitive value addition in human as well as in physical resources. Quality of education largely depends on quality of teachers.2. therefore HEC focuses professional development training of university teachers so that global quality standards and practices could be maintained in the higher education institutions of Pakistan. out of which 3.Ds in Pakistan. With the dual objective of increasing institutional capacity and enhancing local research activities. Action Plan for NEP Implementation (Sector Wide Planning) The real challenge however. chemicals etc. 10. Setting up of Separate Management Cadre 5. as highest body to oversee and monitor the implementation of NEP. In order to boost‐up higher education four new universities have been established during the year 2009‐10. Scholarships schemes are also open to individuals working in the private sector or government servants as well as for Pakistani students.Education The cornerstone of the NEP implementation framework is the institutionalization of Inter‐Provincial Education Ministers (IPEM) Forum. National University of Technology in coordination with NAVTEC and HEC 7. This scheme has produced more than 300 Ph. Standardization of Examination System 6. 20 009) U University of W ah.3 3 whereas to otal enrolment of studen nts at univerrsities number of /DAI+Constituent Colle eges by Secto or since 2001‐‐02 is given in n Table 10.7 7: New Universsities/DAI estaablished duringg 2009‐10 Sr# N Name 1.Economic SSurvey 2009‐10 Table 10. 3. Wah Canttt A Act No.02. A Abdul Wali Khan n University. The tendeency of increeasing o enrolmentt is depicted d at Fig‐10. 10. Khyber Pak N No. Table 10.2: Universitties/DAIs in Paakistan Public sector Priivate Sector (In numbers) 80 60 40 20 0 2001‐02 2002‐03 2003‐04 20004‐05 2005‐06 6 2006‐07 2007‐08 200 08‐09 2009‐1 10 Source: HEC nrolment in H Higher Educattion Institutio ons.10.IV of 20 009 dated 08‐0 07‐2009 Sh haheed Benazzir Bhutto University Sherin ngal Upper Khyber K Pakhtunkhwa Goveernment Regu ulation D Dir. Fig‐10.pk) .XII of 20 002 dated 17‐1 11‐2009 Sourcee: HEC 2.8. M Mardan Date of Establiishment D O Ordinance No.II of 2009 d dated 06‐10‐20 009 htunkhwa HITEC University.94 4 % over the total enrolm ment of 2001 1‐02 (276. 4.2009 ( (Act No. Duringg 2008‐09.8 8: Enrolment att Universities//DAI+ Constitu uent Colleges b by Sector Year Distance Learning Public Privvate 2001‐02 89749 142652 438 873 2002‐03 108709 167775 552 261 2003‐04 159257 202871 611 108 2004‐05 187557 216454 679 953 2005‐06 199660 242879 789 934 2006‐07 272272 276226 915 563 2007‐08 305962 331664 103 3466 2008‐09 P 339704 348434 115 5369 Total 276274 331745 423236 471964 521473 640061 741092 803507 Sourcee: HEC 154 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.com.6‐2 En Enrolmen nt at Universitties/Degree A Awarding Insttitution (exclu uding affiliateed colleges) has been increeasing over the yyears.274 4).507 studentts studying in the universitties which ind dicate an increase of 190. XVIII d dated 24. III of 2009 dateed 25. theere were 803 3. Taxila Cantt A Act No. 521 12. 22.500.000 16.500.6‐3 Funding to Higher Education Since the inception of Higher Education Commission.289 28. funding the Higher Education for Development Expenditures has been increased to Rs. Development & non Development Expenditures on Higher Education for five years are given below in the Table‐10.420. in million 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 P Source: HEC 155 published by Accountancy (www.877 14.766. impact of which has also been felt by higher education sector.9: Development and Non Development Expenditure on Higher Education 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 Released Recurring 10. 8.953 * : Allocation Fig‐10.455 Released Total 21. with support of Rs.000.com.pk) .408 22.890. the funding to higher education has immensely increased.9 whereas the ratio of increase in Higher Education Funding is shown in Fig‐10.000 Source: HEC Released Recurring Released Development 45000 Rs.677 27.186.409.390.741. Non Development funds were curtailed during the financial year 2007‐08.412 14. The country is facing financial constraints for the last few years.384.4 Ratio of Increase in Higher Education Funding 50000 (Million Rs.332. 60% of the allocated funds for current financial have been released. Table 10.Education (Thousand 000) Fig‐10. For the current financial year 2009‐10. So far.833 44.000 132. 21.0 billion from World Bank.4.425 21.926.accountancy. The Non Development funds have also been increased to Rs.498 Released Development 10.3: Student Enrolment at University (Campus+Constituent Colleges) Male Female Total 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001‐02 2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 P Source: HEC 10. Recurring grant allocated during financial year 2008‐09 were kept at the level of previous year.493.536.156 15.5 billion.) 2008‐09 2009‐10 * 15.5 billion. 53 million for civil works). 31.7 billion were required to be provided with missing facilities in 5 years (July 2006‐ June 2011). As per revised allocation for FY 2009‐10. which was later curtailed to Rs. x 5 year Adult Literacy Plan (2010‐15) for all the four provincial as well as FATA and Gilgit Baltistan 156 published by Accountancy (www.5 Ph. The detail in this regard is given in Fig‐10. 800 million (with major component of Rs.7‐2 Projects Wing of MoE has taken various initiatives resulting in following achievements: Early Childhood Education (ECE) x Validation of the standards for ECE has been initiated.5. 800 million due to financial constraints. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan) and Areas (FATA. an amount of Rs.000 schools in 111 Districts with estimated cost of Rs.com. Adult Literacy x Adult literacy supplementary reading material as well as instructional material in adult literacy has been developed for dissemination to the Adult Literacy centers in the country. As per original scope of the Programme.Economic Survey 2009‐10 10.accountancy. x Advocacy and awareness raising material for promotion of Early Childhood Education (ECE) has been developed. 781.7‐1 President’s Education Sector Reforms (PESR) Project Management Unit of Ministry of Education started a mega project in 2007 to provide missing facilities under President’s Education Sector Reform (PESR) Project.pk) . The project “Provision of Missing Facilities” is being executed throughout the country except Punjab province. 10. FANA/GB & AJK) as per approved Cash/Work Plan.Ds Produced by Pakistani Universities over the Years The numbers of Ph. 2000 million was originally allocated for the project. The amount has been distributed among the Provinces (Sindh. Fig‐10. x Teacher guide‐cum textual material for ECE has been developed. During the financial year 2009‐2010.Ds Produced by Pakistani Universities 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 P Source: HEC 10.Ds produced by the Pakistani Universities have increased sharply from 176 in the year 2000 to 624 in 2009. it was planned to provide missing facilities in 1233 Government Primary and Middle schools at a total revised cost of Rs.7 MAJOR PROGRAMME/PROJECTS OF MoE 10.6‐4 Ph. a total of 16. international development partners have extended foreign assistance for the development of education sector in Pakistan as given below: x Funded by DFID at a cost of £3. 1036. Gender in Education Policy Support Project (GEPSP) is being implemented by Government of Pakistan with the technical assistance of UNICEF. Madrassah Education x Rs.925 million.com. having a total allocation of Rs. x USAID has assisted a project “Strengthening Teacher Education in Pakistan” (STEP). x In Elementary Secondary and College (ESC) Section. x Fifteen EFA projects were approved at the cost of Rs. out of which 86 are approved and 15 unapproved. while twenty new projects were approved and included in PSDP 2009‐10. The total number of projects in PSDP 2009‐10 comes to 101. Gender Reform Action Plan (GRAP) and Convention on the Elimination of all forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW).7‐4 Foreign Assistance for Education Sector Since 2008. USAID allocated additional $ 121 million for 157 published by Accountancy (www. x USAID assisted Ed‐Links programme (focusing on Teachers Professional Development. Islamabad & FATA) costing US$ 90 million. 50. x Central Development Working Party (CDWP) approved thirteen Projects at a total cost of Rs.7‐3 During 2008‐09. 10. seventeen projects were completed. out of which eleven were approved at a total cost of Rs.613. Balochistan. costing US$ 2. x Under Strategic Objective Grant Agreement (SOGA). for Economic Survey. Governance) in Sindh. Similarly. 1944.accountancy. 8097.14 million to enhance Government’s capacity to improve policy framework. four other booklets on financing of Education in Pakistan were also prepared and distributed. PRS Monitoring Project. A sum of Rs.30 million was distributed amongst 288 Deeni Madaris for salaries of their teachers under Madrassa Reforms Project x Monitored and evaluated 78 Madaris to check their activities carried out for teaching of formal subjects from Primary to Higher Secondary level under the project. 10.613 million.897 million. coordination and National Standards for Teacher Certification and Accreditation. x Necessary material / feedback were provided to different ministries inter‐alia. Student Learning & Achievement. twenty three different projects were considered by Departmental Development Working Party (DDWP) in its meetings during the year.616 million x Ministry of Education’s Yearbook 2007‐08 was prepared and disseminated. x Science Technical Vocational Education (STVE) Section has managed to get five projects approved whereas three projects are under process for approval at the appropriate forum. PRSP‐II.Education (GB) has been drafted.898 million has been released so far during the first and second quarters of FY10. 4402.5 million.pk) . x USAID has funded “Pre‐Service Teachers Education Programme (Pre‐STEP)” launched at a cost of US$ 75 million. Its objective is to strengthen MoE to accelerate progress towards gender parity and equality at all levels of education by 2015. Canada. New Zealand and Malaysia extended offer but during the said period. 10. each year.7‐5 Foreign Scholarships The Foreign Scholarships are managed through two programmes named "Cultural Exchange Scholarships and Common Wealth Scholarships" about two hundred scholarships are offered by selected donor countries.accountancy.com. Achievements during the period are as under: x Under the Cultural Exchange Programme. candidates per month (now being increased to US Dollar 300 and US Dollar 400 respectively) in addition to the scholarships offered by the donors countries. 10.10) Table 10. only UK had offered and selected 09 candidates who have already proceeded.(see Table 10. Technical Working Group on Education comprising officers of MoE prioritized JP Areas.D. Government of Korea selected 3 students. During the said period. x Department for International Development (DFID).Economic Survey 2009‐10 basic education during 2009.5 million project titled “National Basic Education Policy programme”. Activities.10: Scholarships under Cultural Exchange Programme Proceeded Visa under Name of Country Selected / Availed Process China 117 68 Turkey 16 ‐ 16 Romania 10 03 04 Slovak 03 03 ‐ Mexico 01 ‐ 01 Egypt 13 13 ‐ Total: 160 87 21 Presently Studying 30 128 02 16 02 05 ‐ 03 01 01 01 44 36 197 Source: Ministry of Education Returned x Under the Common Wealth Scholarships UK. x Under One‐UN Joint Program. Brunei Darussalam.7‐6 Scholarships for Student from other Countries: Ministry of Education is implementing the following scholarship schemes: 158 published by Accountancy (www. x GTZ is assisting Ministry of Education in the areas of Education policy review. curriculum reform and Textbook development. Outputs. Outcomes. Government of Pakistan is paying subsidy to the scholars at the @ US Dollar 200 for Master and US Dollar 300 for Ph.pk) . x Governments of Malaysia and Republic of Korea offered 5 and 2 scholarships respectively for Under‐graduate studies. through its € 2. x Government of Bangladesh is offering 14 seats each year for MBBS/BDS for admission in Bangladeshi Medical College on self‐finance basis under SAARC quota. Costs etc. UK entered into agreement with Government of Pakistan for joint task Force on Education and allocated £ 250 million. 13 students were selected who have proceeded abroad. The selected students pay fees at par with Bangladeshi students. before it is formal launch in association with UN agencies. The scheme provides for 330 scholarships per year in the following categories. have been forwarded to different institutions for their placement in MBBS / BDS / Engineering / IT / Agriculture etc on scholarship basis. 75 students were admitted under this scheme in different institutions of Pakistan. Engineering and Information Technology. four scholarships to Indian Occupied Kashmiri students (IOK) are in the field of Medicine. 169 students from Indian Occupied Kashmir have been admitted in different institutions of Pakistan. 10 in Engineering 20 for MA/ MSC).accountancy. So far. 159 published by Accountancy (www. 78 students from different countries are studying in various disciplines /institutions of Pakistan. b) Under President's Special Program for "Provision of Quality Education" for 200 tribal students from FATA and settled areas outside Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. 200 Scholarships to Students from Indian Occupied Kashmir in Medicine. Engineering and I. Islamabad. This scheme has been launched in October 2009 and nominations of 202 Afghan Government nominees received through Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Engineering and Information Technology under President's Directives. b. c. F 92) Private Institutions 30 scholarships ____________________ (B 18. d.7‐7 Local Scholarships: a) Special scheme for the students of Balochistan and FATA titled "Provision of Quality 'Education Opportunities for the students of Balochistan and FATA was launched in 2007 under the directives of Prime Minister and President at a capital cost of Rs. 100 Scholarships to Bangladeshi Students under Prime Minister's Directive These were launched in 2004‐05 for five years for award of 75 Scholarships to Bangladeshi students in the fields of Medicine. 57 students are still studying. F 12) During the year 2008‐09 and 2009‐10. Joining report of 31 IOK students is awaited from the concerned institutions. Under the revised scheme 2007.pk) . 198 students are studying in various quality educational institutions of the country. Award of 1000 Scholarship to Afghan Students. 481 million. while 18 have gone back on completion of their studies. Award of Cultural Scholarships to the Students from Other Countries. 10. c) 40 scholarships for Minorities are also granted per year for the students belonging to the minorities of the countries (10 in Medicine. • • • Cadet Colleges/Public Schools 70 scholarships ___________ (B 40. The number of scholarships was increased from 75 to 100 under the Prime Minister's directive and the period was extended up‐to 2014‐15. These scholarships were increased from 100 to 200 and the period was extended up‐to 2015‐16. So far.Education a. During the years 2008 and 2009 total 80 (40+40) fresh scholarships were granted to the minority students. 310 and 330 students were given admission respectively in various quality educational institutions.com. F 30) Polytechnic/Commercial Colleges 230 scholarships ________ (B 138.T. 1 40. Figures of Universities are provided by Higher Education Commission (HEC).7 13.5 1994-95 139.4 1993-94 134. Figures of Primary.7 30.0 3125 1507 3.7 54.5 3.1 NUMBER OF EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS BY KIND.6 40.4 14.6 3.0 474 218 824 303 260 112 9. Islamabad 5. AEPAM.9 40. Islamabad 3.855 768 386 186 16.741 1.3 747 328 1.8 4. Federal Bureau of Statistics.095 1.4 60.4 2009-10 (E) 156.3 25. from 1992-93 to 2008-09 is based on Annual Pakistan Education Statistics Reports. Pakistan 4.989 822 426 206 16.5 1998-99 159.642 1.1 5.1 3.6 5.996 1.4 12.1 17.1 17.484 1.6 9. 2005'.1 18.2 1999-00 162.056 400 315 139 12.hec.3 580 228 1.8 585 230 1.604 684 677 331 22.213 1.3 578 225 1.6 4.0 13.7 63.4 12.6 28.1 5.222 464 356 161 14.5 2003-04 155.420 1.8 P : Provisional .3 4. Middle. Islamabad (www. LEVEL AND SEX Primary* Middle Schools (000) Schools (000) Total Female Total Female 1992-93 130.4 40.0 9.9 40.1 55.3 1997-98 156.7 1995-96 143.5 2.238 721 24.3 26.6 5.8 602 316 800 293 260 109 9.9 3.0 18.275 742 E : Estimated * : Including Pre-Primary & Mosque Schools (Numbers) Universities Total Female 27 28 34 38 41 45 46 54 59 74 96 106 108 111 120 124 129 132 - Notes 1. Ministry of Education.6 2008-09 (P) 156.2 487 221 863 317 271 116 9. Islamabad 2.9 574 223 1.4 7.2 3159 1523 3.accountancy.399 1.671 1.6 630 236 1.7 52.1 55.9 20.710 691 366 171 15.6 2000-01 147. Figures of Private School data from 1992-93 to 1999-2000 is based on 8th Five Year Plan : Planning Division. All figures include Public and Private Sector data 2.5 13.784 731 376 177 15.7 2. Figures of Private School data from 2000-01 to 2004-05 is based on 'Census of Private Education Institution 1999-2000.0 3090 1491 3.1 14.4 64.1 7.3 2006-07 158.4 19.1 624 228 1.4 612 233 1.3 9.4 577 224 909 338 286 124 9.gov. Figures of Inter Colleges and Degree Colleges from 2004-05 onward is based on Annual Pakistan Education Statistics Reports.3 58.8 56.291 1.0 57.4 3.com. AEPAM.9 8.4 7.5 2007-08 157. Islamabad 6.8 5.: not available High Secondary VocaArts and Professional Schools (000) tional Institutions Science Colleges Colleges Total Female Total Female Total Female Total Female 8.2 58. Female institutions include percentage of mixed institutions Sources: 1.141 382 310 129 11. Figures of Technical & Vocational from 2003-04 onward is based on Pakistan Education Statistics Reports.6 607 239 1.1 42.8 39.8 2005-06 157.8 2002-03 150.4 1996-97 149.5 20.7 3193 1540 3.1 4.8 20. Figures of Private School data of 2005-06 onwards is based on 'National Education Census.6 44.pk) published by Accountancy (www.202 700 24.0 2001-02 149.137 433 336 153 12.2 3. High and Higher Sec.4 64.8 12.TABLE 11.135 664 23.5 59.1 28. AEPAM.8 9.166 631 24.pk) .3 11.5 12.9 2004-05 157.5 6.1 3059 1475 2. AEPAM. Islamabad 7.6 41.3 53. pk) .757 7.997 2006-07 17.305 1.560 5.040 994 1.517 741.590 3.accountancy.600 119. Middle.660 4.190 7.088 5.710 5.032 1. Islamabad 3.007 163.357 1.955 23.pk) published by Accountancy (www.780 24.000 140. All figures includes Non Formal Basic Education (NFBE) and Deeni Madaris data 3.726 653 91 17 562 263 316.737 1.364 436.400 134.695 2007-08 18.000 93.848 5.605 1.521 520 92 15 457 191 304.936 780 114 21 307 141 453.484 1. 2005' AEPAM.468 8.427 2. High and Higher Sec.708 3. Pakistan 4. Figures of Primary.551 1.400 91.298 2.586 1.606 4.705 209. Federal Bureau of Statistics.964 195.059 423.236 178.360 8.657 4.770 2002-03 15.885 255.200 149.279 2.297 P : Provisional E : Estimated Notes: 1.168 357 93 24 422 151 1993-94 10. Figures of Private School data from 1992-93 to 1999-2000 is based on 8th Five Year Plan : Planning Division.071 265 99 1.445 2.651 21.321 1.148 533 458. All figures include Public and Private Sector data 2.074 508 429.322 2. Islamabad 7. Female institutions include percentage of mixed institutions Sources: 1.123 3.723 2004-05* 18.032 5.123 1.050 1997-98 14.784 5.022 256 96 960 452 383.263 605.369 2000-01 14.800 158. AEPAM.556 1.525 514 86 15 422 166 281.092 342.098 1. AEPAM.125 5.140 948.810 226. LEVEL AND SEX Primary Stage Middle Stage High Stage Secondary Arts and Science Professional (IX-X) Vocational Colleges Colleges Universities (I-V) (VI-VIII) Year (000 No) (000 No) (000 No) (000 No) (000 No) (Number) (Number) Total Female Total Female Total Female Total Female Total Female Total Female Total Female 281.200 100.800 148.315 421 84 18 405 149 270.233 2008-09 (P) 18.hec.112 1.342 1994-95 11.270 1. Islamabad 2.642 4.600 82.615 1.589 658 94 19 625 306 320.373 974 251 94 942 473 380.612 1.800 709 105 14 691 338 329.086 2009-10 (E) 18.350 3.800 127.559 3.271 3.879 5.861 4. Islamabad 6. Ibd 5.900 4.191 2.251 246.335 2.136 274 103 1.094 6.944 36.816 1.871 3.400 331.182 5.885 1.700 1.118 471.010 27.848 1998-99 14.918 1. Figures of Universities from 1992-93 to 2007-08 was downloaded from website of HEC.600 110.600 91.473 212.600 124.806 521. Figures of Private School data of 2005-06 onward is based on 'National Education Census.gov. Islamabad (www.400 148.000 99.207 6.555 2005-06 17.715 8.132 3.144 5.com.275 220.600 77.699 2001-02 14.274 101.447 480 86 14 440 179 293.431 2.686 803.066 2003-04 16.174 1995-96 11.856 1992-93 10.745 128.149 4.565 675 83 14 582 283 305.TABLE 11.883 25.696 3.400 68.800 114.506 1.347 1.574 644 83 15 582 285 300.188 905 239 90 891 444 355.414 2. Ministry of Education.264 2.532 1.301 14.821 1. Figures of Technical & Vocational from 2003-04 onward is based on Pakistan Education Statistics Reports.000 276.105 5.012 224. Figures of Private School data from 2000-01 to 2004-05 is based on 'Census of Private Education Institution 1999-2000'.507 356.898 4. AEPAM.400 80.105 1996-97 13.726 1.706 1. Figures of Inter Colleges and Degree Colleges for 2004-05 and onwards is based on Annual Pakistan Education Statistics Reports.637 25.759 1.658 605 90 18 478 201 318.703 639 75 17 509 234 312.2 ENROLMENT IN EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS BY KIND.835 261.469 1999-00 15. from 1992-93 to 2007-08 is based on Annual Pakistan Education Statistics Reports.119 19.993 7. 768 10.441 1.6 276.7 156. Pakistan 4.6 80.8 201. Figures of Technical and Vocational from 2003-04 onward is based on Pakistan Education Statistics Reports. Middle.587 44.777 4.6 132.133 1.911 837 1999-00 402.375 2003-04 432.914 1.164 5.8 278.7 236. Figures of Private Schools data from 2000-01 to 2004-05 is based on 'Census of Private Education Institution 1999-2000'.2 217.302 2001-02 413. Islamabad 6.9 112.509 2006-07 456.8 78.7 213.267 15.5 119.291 1.245 4.681 24.5 209.1 231.8 178.5 7.3 216.4 146. Figures of Inter Colleges and Degree Colleges for 2004-05 onward is based on Annual Pakistan Education Statistics Reports.1 9.950 3.3 239.622 4.3 145.881 24.8 7.hec.4 101.1 138.6 14.138 8.1 7.7 127.969 3.264 5.893 2008-09 P 465.2 218.pk) published by Accountancy (www.2 323.988 1.061 76.4 88.264 5.794 50. Figures of Private Schools data from 1992-93 to 1999-2000 is based on 8th Five Year Plan : Planning Division.843 10.9 219.273 1.658 69. AEPAM.176 10.217 918 1994-95 375.042 1.2 195. Islamabad 7.054 21.223 36.690 9.5 246.184 37.3 9.5 122.6 173.6 310.4 169.996 20.428 2004-05 450.799 32.0 217. Figures of Universities from 1992-93 to 2007-08 was downloaded from website of HEC.192 1.6 247.3 151.1 209.162 919 1997-98 397.3 NUMBER OF TEACHERS IN EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS IN PAKISTAN.5 191.9 6.1 85.5 145.5 447.485 37.019 4.914 4.6 89.190 11.5 230. AEPAM.: not available P : Provisional E : Estimated * : Including Pre-primary and Primary Schools Note: 1.657 5.653 6.923 1.1 139.8 193.754 3.870 39.825 8.com.0 439.729 9.366 15.598 4.839 .2 126.959 39. AEPAM.515 976 1998-99 422.825 2009-10 E 469.2 320.5 108.0 252.6 7.508 5.7 168. All figures include Public and Private Sector data 2. 2005'.9 183.2 231.9 117.8 211.4 224. All figures include Non Formal Basic Education (NFBE) and Deeni Madaris data Sources: 1. AEPAM.2 7.298 10.900 56.1 138.312 21.6 68.7 151. Islamabad 3.690 46. Ibd 5.660 5. High and Higher Sec.accountancy.7 98.246 34.356 1.666 9.268 15.153 2.1 15.623 57.6 313.770 74.425 33.6 417.385 10.3 421.160 1.469 2005-06 454.605 25.0 320.728 747 1993-94 359.0 164.959 48.603 27.269 3.164 4.949 1.1 206.9 14.325 57.149 21. Islamabad 2.218 5.9 183.450 57.708 29.187 14.965 1.0 14.568 10.1 159.146 11.8 260.661 24.190 11.162 20.5 15.221 5.9 134.6 209. Ministry of Education. Figures of Primary.180 1.2 210.2 429.767 10.0 131.146 23.422 1.247 2002-03 433.417 927 1996-97 374. Federal Bureau of Statistics.858 35.253 1.8 7.863 55.845 32.764 11.pk) .537 2007-08 452.8 115.6 107.6 102.016 10.515 9. Islamabad (www.690 37.207 78.7 144.9 7.8 9.3 165.971 10.898 11.505 37.0 212.058 5.6 216.gov.6 208.5 7.5 282.178 5.930 4.485 9.959 20.565 4.7 91.2 146.TABLE 11.316 939 1995-96 377. LEVEL AND SEX Primary SchoolsMiddle Schools High Schools Secondary VocaArts and Science Professional Universities (Thousands) (Thousands) (Thousands) tional Institutions Colleges Colleges (Number) * (Number) (Number) (Number) Total Female Total Female Total Female Total Female Total Female Total Female Total Female 1992-93 332.0 66.506 11.6 6.3 270.105 5.3 225. from 1992-93 to 2006-07 is based on Annual Pakistan Education Statistics Reports.410 6.174 2000-01 408.128 3.9 227.065 4. BY KIND.676 71.5 203.139 4.3 125.656 38. Figures of Private Schools data of 2005-06 and onwards is based on 'National Education Census. 1 Health Indicators In Pakistan. In addition. the overall population growth at 2.1% (latest. It also aims to improve health status of the population by achieving policy objectives of enhancing coverage and access of essential health services. Pakistan ranks poorly on this count.Health and Nutrition 11 In Pakistan. it is aimed to reduce the under‐ five mortality rate to 52 per 1000. 161 published by Accountancy (www. through the channels of productivity enhancement and poverty alleviation. life expectancy in Pakistan remains lower than many in its peer group. gathering and using reliable health information to guide program effectiveness and design. revised) is the highest in the region. and strategic use of emerging technology. investments in the Health sector are viewed as an integral part of the government’s poverty alleviation endeavour. India and Sri Lanka. for example. especially in the health sector. However. The achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is a priority area for Pakistan. Overall. but generally improvements on this front have lagged in the case of Pakistan. Pakistan’s infant mortality rate is higher. Through a major health intervention program and strategies. 11. The National Health Policy of Pakistan of 2009 seeks to improve the health indicators of the country. An improvement in the overall health sector indicators of a country has important ramifications not just for the quality of life of its citizens.com. while infant as well as maternal mortality rates are amongst the highest. Whereas the proportion of 1 year‐old children immunized against measles is targeted to be increased to 85% and the proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel to 90% by 2015. other indicators show that a lot of progress will have to be made to meaningfully improve the health status of the population.pk) . and maternal mortality ratio to 140 by 2015. the status is mixed. Malaria. While there has been noticeable improvement in some health indicators over the years. Recent cross‐country studies of vital health indicators show a wide variation in epidemiological pattern between different Asian countries. along with other communicable diseases. on the whole. health status of the population at large has improved considerably over time. While life expectancy is also higher except for Sri Lanka. infant mortality rate to 40 per 1000. plans have been formulated to combat TB. Pakistan is committed to meeting these goals by 2015 by launching new policy initiatives. but for economic development generally. coverage and to help in achieving Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Special attention is being given to the training of nurses and several training centres are already in operation.accountancy. It aims to do so by delivering a set of basic health services for all by improving health manpower. HIV/AIDS and Hepatitis. measurable reduction in the burden of diseases and protecting the poor and under privileged population subgroups against risk factors. Several programs are under way with major thrust to improve health care. Compared with Bangladesh. by international comparison. Similarly. Planning Commission Pakistan India Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal China Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia 11.66 68.34 9.00 11.57 2008‐09 74.3 1.5 71.8 0.5 12.6 1.50 24.1 0.00 38.4 0.6 15.22 32. billions) Public Sector Expenditure (Federal and Provincial) Health Percentage Fiscal Years Expenditure as % Total Health Development Current Change of GDP Expenditures Expenditure Expenditure 2000‐01 24.3 1.69 18.72 70.1 18.8 11.pk) .94 18.81 6.94 66.41 6.6 1.51 2006‐07 50.1: Indicators Country Life Expectancy (2008) Infant Mortality Mortality Rate under 5 Population Avg.00 20.58 2003‐04 32.54 Source: Planning and Development Division Fig-11.00 30.81 8.5 65.8 0.00 41.4 15.3 0.28 5.7 47.29 66.7 30.00 7 0.10 23 0.31 13.00 27.00 27.00 25 0.72 4.62 71.9 17. which is amongst the lowest of all other countries at a similar income level.2 2.1 95.61 22.2 Health Expenditure Despite a nearly three fold increase in public sector expenditure since 2001.57 2007‐08 60.0 69.2 29.56 2009‐10 79.00 5.S.00 15. International database.com.5 27.00 33.1 78.9 0.55 74.1: Health & Nutrition Expenditure 78000 69000 60000 51000 42000 33000 24000 Year 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 2000-01 1999-00 1998-99 1997-98 1996-97 1995-96 15000 Source: Planning and Development Division 162 published by Accountancy (www.54 percent of GDP.8 1.4 0.8 29.00 24.9 31.1 59. Census Bureau.14 Source: World Bank. Total public sector expenditure on health.1 63.00 41.accountancy.96 74. in the current fiscal year is projected to be 0.57 2004‐05 38. for both the federal as well as provincial governments combined.7 0. U.72 2001‐02 25.1 20. Rate per 1000 per 1000 Annual (%) Growth (2009) (2009) (2009) 66.9 0.67 20 0.2 1.2: Health & Nutrition Expenditures (2000‐01 to 2009‐10) (Rs. Table 11.59 2002‐03 28.21 13.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 11.57 2005‐06 40.00 16.1 20.28 73. spending on health remains abysmally low – and has declined as a percentage of GDP. programmes and interventions based on their local needs. Table 11. The current population‐ doctor ratio is 1. 10 Rural Health Centres (RHCs).813 dispensaries. Rural Health Centres.093 8. the health care system as a whole needs to be strengthened further at all levels. 572 Rural Health Centres and 293 TB Centres etc. Under the preventive program.555 doctors. the latter under their Corporate and Social Responsibility (CSR) mandate. In the public sector. New Rural Health Centres (RHCs) 10 iii. 9. However. 500 Dentists.4 Table 11. The human resource available for health care registered till December 2009 in the country included 139. The targets for health sector during 2009‐ 10 included the establishment of 50 Basic Health Units (BHUs). Rural Health Programme i.pk) .3: Healthcare Facilities Health Manpower Registered doctors Registered dentists Registered nurses Population per Doctor Population per Dentist Population per Bed 2007‐08 128. (RHC) Basic Health Units (BHU) and hospital beds has been encouraging.651 1245 19417 1544 2008‐09 133.010 1575 2009‐10 139. homeopaths and hakeems.914 person per dentist. 5. The health care system in Pakistan comprises the public as well as private health facilities. 4. 4000 Nurses and 5000 paramedics.822 dentists and 69. In addition. They have been successful to a large extent in raising the level of awareness of positive health behaviour among the people. An effective fight has been launched in prevention and control of both communicable and non communicable diseases in order to have an impact in the scenario of double burden of diseases in the country.215 62. medical practitioners. In the private sector.accountancy.313 nurses.387 1212 18. Upgradation of existing RHCs 20 iv. Upgradation of existing BHUs 50 Estimated Achievements (Nos) Achievements (%) 35 7 15 45 87 70 75 90 163 published by Accountancy (www. cost and quality of health care remain critical issues. New Basic Health Units (BHUs) 50 ii.013 65. ‐7. Targets and achievements for the year 2009‐10 are given in Table 11.3 Health Facilities: While Pakistan enjoys a vast network of healthcare facilities. up‐ gradation of 20 existing Rural Health Centres (RHCs).com.e. Health care is also provided to the public through a vast health infrastructure facilities now consisting of 968 hospitals. the range of health care facilities includes accredited hospitals and clinics.313 1183 16914 1592 Source: Ministry of Health 11. accessibility. The manpower development targets cover the output of 5000 Doctors.5 million children have to be immunized and 22 million packets of oral Re‐hydration Salt (ORS) are to be distributed during 2009‐10.984 9.4: Physical Targets and Achievements During 2009‐10 Targets (Nos) Sub‐Sector 2009‐10 A.555 9.Health and Nutrition 11. The achievements have been largely in vicinity of the targets. non‐governmental organizations (NGOs) and Pakistan’s corporate sector are also active in the health and social sector.183 persons per doctor and 16. 50 Basic Health Units (BHUs) and addition of 5000 hospital beds.822 69. coverage. districts have been given power for developing their own strategies.345 Basic Health Units.4 Physical Targets and Achievements During 2009‐10 The heath sector performance in terms of physical infrastructure i. com. Diphtheria./Aids a) Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) The expanded programme on immunization (EPI) aims at protecting children by immunizing them against Childhood Tuberculosis. Doctors 5000 ii. x Government has brought GAVI support for Pentavalent (DPT ‐ Hep B ‐ Hib) vaccine for the country under co‐financing mechanism. x GAVI has also extended its support for the Immunization Services Strengthening through State Bank of Pakistan and utilization of these funds is through PC‐1. Poliomyelitis.5 ii. syringes. x Pentavalent combination vaccine (DPT + Hep B + Hib) has been introduced in the country.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 11.5 Health Programs Public health intervention include a number of programmes which are federally led With provincial implementation arms. Training of LHWs 110. Immunization (Million Nos) 7. These include the National programme of TB control. 6000 million for the current year 2009‐10 to improve the health status of children and their mothers. Dentists 500 iii.. x Measles catch‐up campaign carried out in all over the country wherein 64 million (100% of the target) children were vaccinated. printed material and launching of health education/ motivation campaign. Tetanus and also their mothers against Tetanus The Government of Pakistan provides support to the programme through PCIs. Beds in Hospitals/RHCs/BHUs 5000 C. x Pakistan has made tremendous progress towards achieving polio targets and global experts 164 published by Accountancy (www. Paramedics 5000 v. the current PCI is under process for the period 2009‐10 to 2013‐2014 The Government has allocated Rs. Nurses 4000 iv. Malaria and Hiv. Measles. operational vehicles. The program has been able to achieve major achievements as x Surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) has met global standards nationally.000 D. Oral Rehyderation Salt (ORS) 22 (Million Packets) Estimated Achievements (Nos) 4000 Achievements (%) 80 4500 350 3200 4500 450 100. TBAs 550 vi.000 90 70 80 90 82 90 7 19 93 86 Source: Planning & Development Division 11. This combination brought new vaccine Haemophilus Influenza Type b in the programme.accountancy. Health Manpower Development i. Peruses. cold chain equipment. This ensures the commitment of the Federal Government for provision of vaccines.pk) .4: Physical Targets and Achievements During 2009‐10 Targets (Nos) Sub‐Sector 2009‐10 B. GAVI will pay US$ 136 million and the country will bear US$ 15 million under GAVI Pahse‐2 support. Preventive Programme i. and Sindh with UNAIDS collaboration for MDG reporting. For next five years (2009‐2013) federal and provincial governments have allocated Rs. d. the trend of HIV epidemic has shifted from a low‐prevalence state to concentrated state which is derived from the fact that HIV prevalence in some of the high risk groups has been found to be more than 5% and existing behaviour patterns signify it to be a high risk situation. Service delivery projects for high risk groups in the provinces covering almost 20% of the target population. However. international and bilateral donors c. 2.accountancy. The mission is a more comprehensive national HIV response and targeting efforts towards achievement of Millennium Development Goal 6. g. bases on the findings of Mid Term Review.Health and Nutrition have re‐affirmed that country could be the next polio‐free country in the world. e.62 million and 1006 million respectively for malaria control activities in country. Based on the surveillance data and epidemiological modeling. the NACP has estimated that there are about 97. providing free of cost treatment of opportunistic infections and ARVs to 1300 patients. Significant achievements of the Programme during the year include: a. a revised National Strategic Framework was designed and the revised PC‐1s (2010‐14) were developed accordingly at a cost of Rs. Major activity to be undertaken in the forthcoming fiscal year 2010‐11 in particular. c) National Program for Malaria Control Malaria is the 2nd most prevalent and devastating disease in the country and has been a major cause of morbidity in Pakistan.pk) . approximately 0. Operationalization of National Monitoring & Evaluation framework for HIV response.com. x Successful negotiations with the World Bank to support cost of polio vaccine through an IDA‐Buy Down Credit. b) AIDS Control Programme In Pakistan. Revision of national HIV estimates and projections using modeling with UNAIDS support.1% of the total adult population. 7. The Government of Pakistan expanded its response to HIV/AIDS by translating the strategic plan into action through the Enhanced HIV/AIDS Programme (2003‐09) with assistance of the World Bank at a cost of Rs.85 billion. Coordination with the UN system. provision of polio vaccine is secured until early 2011. 165 published by Accountancy (www. f.83 billion with the World Bank support. Operationalization of 20 treatment centres for HIV patients in Federal area and Provinces.400 HIV positive people. b. 658. Revival of German funded Safe Blood Transfusion project. Reduction of malaria burden in the country is both a national and provincial priority. The number of cases has been reduced from thousands to just 89 cases in 2009 and polio remains in just a few strong holds across the country. Ongoing HIV second generation surveillance among FSWs in six major cities of Punjab. Success is linked with indicators failing which credit will be converted to loan. The LHWs.B. To realize the targets TB‐DOTS program is now integrated in district health system.245. f) National Programme for Family Planning (FP) & Primary Health Care (PHC) The programs aims to delivery basic health services at the doorsteps of the poor segments of the society through deployment of lady health workers (LHV). 3. NGO workers and community volunteers undertake DOTS. Control Programme (NTCP) The total No of TB cases is 76.913.pk) .Presently more than 13 Nuclear Medicine & Oncology Centers equipped with 166 published by Accountancy (www.277 million. 2010 is Rs.153 million Programme performance during the current fiscal year include . The government aims at developing a strategic plan including expansion of laboratory network. Technical guidelines and training modules are in place. Ophthalmic subspecialty clinics have been established at three Centres of Excellence and highly qualified human resource in ophthalmology and allied vision sciences is being developed at these centres. health staff. Allocation for Current Fiscal Year 2009‐10 is Rs.These workers are providing services to their communities in the field of child health. standardization of laboratory equipment and supplies. thus making possible the availability of this latest treatment at doorsteps of people.com. x 10.000 million and funds Released (July.668 and the percentage of TB Cases Detection and care rate is 80%. 72 DHQ hospitals all over Pakistan have been endowed with YAG Laser and 45 with Green Argon laser equipment thus making Pakistan the only country in the region to have these facilities at secondary level district hospital. The number of LHWs inducted during current fiscal year is 8.000 more LHWs were planned to be selected. 2009 to March 2010) Rs. establishing a system annual feedback from the district where TB‐DOTS interventions are already showing visible results as indicated by the recent reports of STOP‐T. family planning and treatment of minor ailment. nutrition. x The 4th independent (Third Party) Evaluation of the Programme was completed which was a two year study and significant in terms of validating Programme impact and performance. e) National Programme for Prevention and Control of Blindness The Programme is in line with “VISION 2020” the global initiative of WHO for elimination of preventable causes of blindness by the year 2020. The expenditure July to February.045.accountancy. Furthermore. 3. trained and inducted in the Programme. 7. The Programme aims to up‐grade the existing eye care facilities at the government hospitals across Pakistan through provision of latest state of the art ophthalmic equipment needed for early diagnosis and prompt treatment of diseases leading to blindness.Economic Survey 2009‐10 World Bank funded PC‐1 on Nutrition in process. development of guidelines for quality assurance of sputum microscopy.000. d) National T.B. The Programme has so far up‐graded 63 Eye Departments with the provision of latest state of the art ophthalmic equipment all over Pakistan. g) Cancer Treatment Programme Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) has been playing a vital role in the health sector by using the nuclear and other advanced techniques for diagnosis and treatment of cancerous and allied disease . The equipment being provided by the National Programme also includes Laser Machines (YAG & Argon Lasers) for the DHQ Hospitals. 5: Seizure of Drugs S.(iii) Enhance efforts to forfeit drug‐generated assets and curb money laundering (iv) Demand Reduction through accelerated initiatives and reduction in the number of drug addicts through prevention.Health and Nutrition excellent facilities are working under PAEC and serving with continuously integrate programs in diagnosis of different kinds of cancer/ allied diseases. treatment and rehabilitation measures.accountancy.com. Major disciplines available and operative in different PAEC nuclear medical centers include the disciplines of Nuclear medicine. Directorate General of Medical Sciences. This new Policy outlines a number of objectives targeting supply reduction. 000 2087. It adds to the cost of our already over burdened health care system. 2009 is as under:‐ Table 11. 337 million. out of which 25% will be met from Government of Pakistan funds while remaining 75% from the foreign donors assistance Objectives of the plane have been defined and achievable targets set with emphasis on both supply and demand reduction activities A strategy with key objectives as (i) Supply reduction through strengthening law enforcement.pk) . (ii) Control production. Clinical Laboratories. 480 million as foreign aid. Surgical Oncology.233 million by Government of Pakistan and Rs. This will provide trained and expert personnel in each field of cancer diagnosis and treatment. 342 206017. 10994 million. h) Drug Abuse Drug Abuse is Widespread in our society and has affected Pakistan in may ways. 611. demand reduction and international cooperation. Clinical Oncology. Expenditure under this plan is expected to be Rs. Radiology. Medical Physics and Bio Engineering etc. Besides. A new Anti Narcotics Policy 2010 is under process to address the prevailing drug situation in the country. 337 Source: Ministry of Narcotics Control 167 published by Accountancy (www. 67. trafficking and distribution of narcotic substance.013 million with 296. The United Nation Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC) estimates that 40% of the heroin and morphine trafficked out of Afghanistan transit through Pakistan. PAEC Headquarter is also working on “Human Resource Development Programme”. Besides management of the operations of major disciplines in different PAEC nuclear medical centers.No. A new Drug Abuse Control Master Plan (2010‐14) has been prepared to meet the growing challenges. Seizure of Narcotic Drugs Seizures of narcotic drugs for the period 1st July 2009 to 31st December. Kind of Narcotics 1 2 3 4 Opium Morphine Heroin Hashish Quantity of Drugs (Seized in Kgs) 26023. 315. 689 1661. Pakistan has a high abuse rate for opiates. 6 new Projects are also approved for 2009‐10 with total cost of Rs. Currently there are 12 ongoing projects which are being implemented at the cost of Rs. Malnutrition persists in Pakistan especially among young children and women in the childbearing age groups.4 33. health care.0 72 72.1 175.e.6 148.3 5.com.8 13.1 28.3 147. thus resulting in poor education performance.7 165 150. 168 published by Accountancy (www.2 2.6: Table 11.5 67.6 30.7 17.5 69.2 7.8 19.8 Milk Ltr 107 94.7 20. a.8 61.2 31. infant and child feeding practices.0 Edible Oil Ltr 2.6 170.1 159.3 5. The factors involved in malnutrition are food security. They together contribute to great deal of all health and reduced level of developmental activities in children and adults.8 166.4 7. Vitamin A drops administered to children 6 to 60 months.3 Calories per day 2078 2301 2324 2416 2381 2386 2349 2470 2456 2441 Protein per day 62. malnutrition continue to be a major area of concern for public health.7 151.8 Pulses Kg 13.1 4. Vitamin A and Iodine.5 72. The availability of essential food items over the period is briefly given in Table 11.3 13.8 13. water supply & sanitation and education etc. Nutrition interventions are low cost preventive action and specific intervention for food security along with nutritional awareness and safety nets are being taken to address the nutritional issues.3 18.3 11.8 107. the shortfall of sugar was covered by taking necessary measures to meet the requirements.9 T: Targets E: Estimates Source: Planning and Development Division a) Nutrition activities and Programs Primary Health Care (PHC) covering nutritional activities by micronutrient supplementation to women of child bearing age. Millions of people around the world are malnutrition due to inadequate dietary intake and illness.2 6.5 25. Apart. However.9 grams per capita/day against the average requirement of 2350 calories per capita per day.6 Food and Nutrition Nutrition adequacy is one of the key determinant of the quality of human resource.6 5.9 6.2 176.8 154 162.3 12.4 67.1 160.1 7.6 20. Micronutrient Deficiency Control Program through food based approaches for major b) Micronutrient deficiencies i.6: Food Availability per capita Year/ 2008‐09 2009‐10 Items 1949‐50 1979‐80 1989‐90 1999‐00 2003‐04 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 units (E) (T) Cereals Kg 139.6 25.4 13.3 32.3 10.2 Meat Kg 9.6 Eggs Dozen 0.2 6. Iodine.7 6.8 69.7 27 26.3 6.pk) . Iron and Vitamin‐A & D.2 1.8 21.accountancy.7 12.2 5. The basic causes of these deficiencies is lack of adequate intake through the diets compounded by poor bio availability Adequate diet provides good nutrition for healthy life and human development. growth monitoring. are being implemented by the private sector and coordinated by Ministry of Health.1 11. The average caloric availability remained around 2441 and protein at 72.1 5. Availability of major food items had been maintained during the year.3 166. about 50% infant and child deaths relate to malnutrition.4 148. Despite the rapid progress in the technology of food production and processing. counselling on breast feeding & weaning practices and nutrition awareness through Lady Health Workers (LHWs).1 20.1 172. low labour productivity and poverty.76 18.4 5.2 Sugar Kg 17. The problem of malnutrition encompasses three macronutrient deficiencies. Iron.5 67.1 7.Economic Survey 2009‐10 11.9 7. It affects physical and mental health. Salt Iodization in private sector has been strengthened in more than 68 districts along with awareness material. e) Food Support Program: Poor household food support program of Pakistan Bait‐ul‐mal has been integrated into Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) for wider coverage throughout the country. d) Food Quality Control System: Reference laboratory for quality has been established at National Institute Of Health.Health and Nutrition b.pk) . The program is still unapproved and has priority to initiate in the next year.accountancy. f) Food Security: Special Program for food security and productivity enhancement is being run by the Ministry of Food and Agriculture to meet food requirement and consumption demand of the people. 169 published by Accountancy (www. Vitamin A & D fortification in vegetable ghee/oil throughout the country which is mandatory. c) School Nutrition Program has been designed as a social safety net and incentives to improve the nutritional status of Government Rural Primary School going children along with to increase enrolment and reduce gender disparity and drop out rates. Wheat Flour Fortification being expanded to 128 flour mills in the country and mass media campaign for consumer education. Islamabad. c.com. 454 1.171 5.805 1.866 1.582 4.429 2.351 3.073 1.126 1965 379 25.664 2.291 1.886 1.587 1. .464 1993 799 80.893 1975 518 37. .280 4.976 2.938 1.775 2.174 1.087 1963 365 23..490 1.593 1989 719 66.230 5.982 2....077 1. .112 2.492 2005 919 101.603 1.724 1985 652 55..945 1.663 4.375 1.454 3.441 1..794 4.554 4.805 1.603 2. 87 87 90 102 134 173 186 200 211 217 243 283 302 319 334 349 383 417 448 459 465 470 485 496 498 505 513 514 530 531 541 550 552 552 556 560 562 561 572 TB Centres .513 4.038 1961 345 22.843 1977 528 40.093 1.848 1974 517 35. .415 3.285 1.200 2.498 3. 1 . 18 ..443 1994 822 84. .993 4.337 1.659 1.055 849 * 853 * 859 * 853 * 853 * 852 * 855 * 856 * 879 * 862 907 906 907 906 903 908 906 Population Total per Beds Bed 1960 342 22.195 1. .pk) ..902 4.349 5.412 1.712 4. .022 1966 389 26.626 1.647 2.150 3.137 2.accountancy..047 1.155 5.088 1964 365 23.366 2...206 4.121 5.063 1962 361 22.716 1981 600 48. ..908 1.264 1.908 3.161 1.907 1.792 1973 521 35.518 1.454 2003 906 98.290 5.469 1.779 1980 602 47.508 2007 945 103.033 1967 391 27.754 1. 79 82 84 89 89 95 95 95 98 98 99 98 98 96 100 101 104 211 211 220 219 228 233 242 260 262 262 263 264 274 272 285 289 289 289 288 290 293 293 published by Accountancy (www.523 4. .308 5.425 1992 778 76.. .478 3.. .213 4..394 2.345 Maternity & Child Health Centres 348 422 449 488 524 554 558 650 650 668 668 668 675 662 690 696 715 726 748 772 812 823 817 794 787 778 773 798 998 1....367 1.479 2004 916 99. .997 1.407 1997 865 89.551 4..723 1984 633 53.143 5.301 5. Progressive (Calendar Year Basis) (Number) BHUs Sub Health Centres ..444 1991 776 75...185 5.310 5.708 1.251 1.095 4.544 2008 948 103.440 1999 879 92. .883 1.253 4.394 2. 3 . .684 1. .220 3.813 Rural Health Centres ..776 1.752 1982 613 50..587 1990 756 72.136 2.709 1.336 5.655 1...063 3.846 1.689 1987 682 60.129 1.902 3. ...575 2009 968 103.625 4.836 2.386 3.448 2000 876 93.616 3.986 5. : Not available Source: Ministry of Health * : The decrease in MCH since 1993 as against last year is due to exclusion/separation of family welfare centres from MCH structure in NWFP Year Hospitals Dispensaries 1.795 3.TABLE 12. . .427 2002 906 98.804 1979 550 44.com.566 2.050 1. . .414 4. .818 4.751 1.100 1970 411 28. .514 1..583 4.459 3.632 4.635 4.334 5.526 4.618 2.755 4.1 NATIONAL MEDICAL AND HEALTH ESTABLISHMENTS.396 1995 827 85.374 1..699 1986 670 57.834 1. ..666 1988 710 64.418 1998 872 90.678 1968 398 27.441 3.852 1976 525 39.483 2006 924 102.695 1.466 3.659 3.834 1978 536 42.057 1.471 1.416 1996 858 88.456 2001 907 97.592 .875 2.367 3.335 1.037 1. .590 4.027 1.929 1.206 3.804 1972 496 35.735 1983 626 52.061 1971 495 34.079 1969 405 27. 249 249 255 290 373 536 544 554 645 736 774 1. 850 2.785.068 16.979 22.00 2002 102.. .534 10.73 8.150 16.00 41.839 20.073 1.00 1994 67.525 5.13 69.591 151 .589. .accountancy.881.589 1..741.528 22.394 20.438 57.680. .000. .405 6. Planning & Development Division *** : Registered with Pakistan Medical and Dental Council and Pakistan Nursing Council Note : Data regarding registered number of Doctors/Dentists is vulnerable to few changes as it is affected by change of province or if there is any change in registration status from time to time published by Accountancy (www.580 1.80 92.215 62.897 7.578 35.537.887.612 40.948 15.130 5.443 1..133 1.389 17. .064.00 2005 118.00 439.287 446 .00 1965 1.615.00 1964 1.00 1967 2.695 93.564.00 32.297 16.315 2.183.00 1.138 549 .747 22. 17.455 44..777 928 5.00 661.402.526 1.103 4.478 5.207.404 27.107 11.452.041 781 3.470 .017 2.000.00 1990 52.000.2 REGISTERED MEDICAL AND PARAMEDICAL PERSONNEL (Progressive) AND EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH.633 1..00 641.416 10. .741 1.000.870 57. 75.00 1988 42.00 2003 108.106 2.170 .00 1984 25..910 1.037.00 1983 20.106 341 9.605 68.846 718 6.933 24. .546 2.959 1. .014 10.299 20.661 629...668 273 .582 610 946 522 51 12.107 1.. . ...613.490 1. .586.280 7.205.678 3.796 1.273 6.516 31.861 13.89 1980 10.892 49.00 2008 133.43 1997 79.636 . .. .00 2004 113.524 ... 14.349 8.044 1.00 1969 3.50 2..00 4.560 1.034 1.802 511 .000.000.814 37.305.185 5.700.00 22.160 67.190...299 3.144 2.12 1985 30.558 12.31 1993 63.110 4.165 37.076.938 22.204 2.491.00 .201 118 11.270 23.662 4.00 993.228.734 51.948 1.79 99.289 1. 37.552 3. .689 42.993 50. 21..75 1996 75.86 1999 88.031 1.07 10. 21.254 20.169 7.10 360..555 9.468 61. ..90 1973 5.180 3.084 6.609.672 942..078 1...60 1978 8.256 155.81 15.692 8.041 1.779 2.008 195 .615 .000.00 1991 56.463 1. 46.956 9. 13. .531 46.67 210.577 246 10.927 2.00 27.002 1.00 2001 97.446 23.00 1989 47.776 21.857.772 14.343 137..419 19.311 363..803 46.670.00 558.302 1.00 1966 2.232 733 3..405 512..466 29.00 41..670 2..058 44.00 1975 6.529 33.082 3.584 21.641 3.00 1995 70..183 16.200 547 7.245 19.00 18.70 151..128 ..308 73.100.128 48.611 5.588 233 . .953 95.804 4. 12. 70.40 11.857 35.228 54.681.865 1. 46.520 23.278 101.55 80.741.226 4.079 846 4.579 6.322 332 .309 717.269 19.401 5..018 175.00 1962 797 2 .299 1. .62 141.325 81 .167 2. .225 10.866 2.840 4.629 5.133 102.10 1982 17.396 57. 59. .944.com.20 1977 7. .862 2.587..557 5.832 5.062 6. 34.697 2.865 62.152.711 5.526 98..144 4.00 1963 1.00 7.019 22.860.574 3.963 2.00 794.82 1981 13.824 120.526.00 24.00 1970 3..669 1.651 25.313 26. 75.076 8. 21.848 48. Ministry of Health ^* : Expenditure figures are for respective financial years 2009 = 2009-10 2.519.. ..245 18.533 .00 3.270.082 52.. (Calendar Year Basis) (Number) RegisRegisRegisRegisterRegisterYear tered tered tered ed Mided Lady Population per Expenditure(Mln. 67.310 25.920 1.337.174 1.00 1987 38.222 7..TABLE 12.501.485.519 2.580 2.010 32.802.015 12.405 1..00 4.628 107.508 2.315.500.60 13. : Not available Source: 1.012 65.407 1. 32.997.529 8.549 87.594 453 8.00 2007 128.41 4.00 6.414 8.331 23.559 6.599 1.018 650 1.184 18. .985 1.00 1.369 1.505 2.129.822 69.318 6. .688.00 1971 4.359 25.079 569.00 2000 92.00 1968 2. 26. 15.862 1.. .348 6.65 1992 61.892 3.646 24..00 16.459 .717.10 78.637 197 11.114 3.636 40.00 2006 123.759 4.590 38.. 34.636 13.00 30.212 18..00 2009 139.190 123.918 15..336 4.910 4.009 3.164 111.00 1.00 278.087 77. .875.114. 35.154 28.393.201 2.261 9..00 24.594 61.pk) .153 540.434 32.976 2.387 25.017 2.049 17 .00 18.478 706 2.661 3.10 1974 5.121 6. Rs)^* Doctors Dentists Nurses wives Health DevelopNon-Deve*** *** *** Visitors Doctor Dentist ment lopment 1961 612 .397 1.374 3.437 3.22 78.913 384 .31 86.10 1972 4. 59.47 84.731 1..417 27.81 1986 34.970 .002 11.661 21.675 6.482 928 5.60 1979 9.64 1976 6.185 1..917 2. .31 7..00 4.99 128.91 1998 83.384 2.018 6.55 171.101 83.652 6. 590.112 IV BR 57.071.744 3.290.687 3.114.198 4.075 1.273.162 4.392 4.: not available D.P.279 4.861 MEASLES 4. (Calendar Year Basis) Vaccine/doz B.819.958 4.685 1.3.701 4.623 44.733 III 1.C.614 4.604 4.035.650.806.869.371 5.626 5.494 5.275.324.070.488 4.842 COMBO I II III - - - - - - - .365 3.568 4.558.482.794.678.656.128 5.250.347 5.968 292.169 D.098.790.048.061 5.306 1.170 - 226.a combination of DPT and HBV published by Accountancy (www.5.189 Pentavalent I II III - - - - - - - - - .924.273.3.858.534 4.953 - 49.916.840.707 4.441.967 3.410 4.278.769 IV 484. : Tetanus Toxoid Note : The DPT from the year 2007 onward has discontinued and is replaced by Combo .488 1.640 2.288 152.402.423.892 III 4.032 4.281.599 4.564 2.T I 5.919.140.055 279.428 3.418 105 284 55 - - - - H.847 II 4.523.529 2.693.991 .338.615 3.665 4.pk) .571 3.694 937.364.202 4.787.583.720.026 5.025.857.078 1.703 4.435 6.128 894.539.518 22.085 4.321 3.098.343 4.050.401.070.617.965.086 868.T I 4.294 .184 3.465 4.457 - 138.126.138 I 5.738.107 5.1.768.376 3.080 168.663 2.034.756.328 4.com.458.959 2.203.850 3.B.410 4.TABLE 12.116 5.906 3.183 5.427.865 4.3.391.136 5.297.5.461.897 4.175.023.780.014.1.862.428.848 4.734.159.558.070.530.706 5.310 4.1.819.749 5.768 46.982.582.795.345 3.G.G.227.576 1.538 3.879.512.5.886.729 .791.932 3.307.877.688.253.673 4.023 865.871 5.799 .888 157.543.573 3.P.352.884.accountancy.650 3.974 3.539.368 239.751 4.056.448 337.352 - 60.759 5.277 765.212.892.576.429 5.282.794 4.917 35.772.024 284.211 5.356.625.133.710.277.630 4.347 5.777.649.592 4.V I II III - - .757 II 3.079.T.217 4.581.879 V 308.069.495 4.262 4.C.198 4.735 4.699 131.466 4.131.995.918.277.007 3.842.286.065.723 II 4.552 4.969.053.133. : Bacilus+Calamus+Guerin T.351 - 105.645.543 3.279 1.336 163.474 4.103 4.720 4.766 5.362 II .256 4.968 4.639 810.545 4.112.839.031.101 5.402 163.747 159.091.031 4.006 1.163.550 3.204 1.178.786 3.441 1.387.483 152.378 0 2. POLIO 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 5.364 BR 169.086 4.987 - 77.268 793.124.546.721 2.473 4.309 .612.386.382 176.490 - 33.265 3.581.711 2.026.768 4.187 3.038.571.207 2.089 4.616.3 DATA ON EXPANDED PROGRAMME OF IMMUNIZATION VACCINATION PERFORMANCE (0-4 YEARS).628 4.065 - 46.582 3.229 5.243 4.243 III 4.179.132.394 928.811.701 5.995 310.105.454 3.820 1.941 519.999 318.674 - 460.086 286.T : Diphteira+Perussia+Tetanus Source: Ministry of Health B.447 .384.464 310.277.999.387.846.518 .530 141.131 4.479.632 4.717 4.521 T.556.878 4.918.166 5.884.692.754 4. 75 32.13 45.00 23.00 70.00 50.13 33.50 27.00 100.00 12.00 35.00 50.40 33..00 61.17 70.50 29.00 50.33 107.00 50.00 65.00 48.00 45.50 17.00 30.08 30.00 20.00 82.00 16.00 120.00 20.54 27.50 60.29 20.00 40.00 35.00 50.75 40.86 27.50 30.00 50.00 65.00 36.50 43.00 65.TABLE 12.00 25.44 33.00 20.50 37.83 35.00 43.67 32.00 43.29 50.00 40.83 AVERAGE DOCTOR CALL FEE IN VARIOUS CITIES " 84 " 85 " 86 " 87 " 88 " 89 " 90 " 91 " 92 " 93 " 94 " 95 " 95 " 97 " 98 " 99 " 2000 " 2001 " 2002 " 2003 " 2004 " 2005 " 2006 " 2007 " 2008 " 2009 " : Not available 20.00 25..00 41.00 50.64 22.00 30.59 24.00 46.67 42.00 55.00 15.75 25.00 15.00 50.00 130.54 25.62 44.00 22.11 30.00 75.75 75.75 33.00 35.13 25.00 80.50 32.70 26.00 46.00 40.75 35.00 20.64 41.50 57.01 41.68 32.21 30.25 41.00 50.50 37.23 30.00 100.00 100.00 36.00 32.00 20.86 30.75 35.00 45.17 75.96 30.81 52.25 43.00 55.75 50.00 23.accountancy.00 28.00 50.50 25.88 26.00 120.75 33.68 50.00 50.44 33.00 38.00 37.00 20.00 23.00 35.00 75.00 Karachi Lahore 15.50 37. 50.02 27.50 52.00 50.pk) .00 20.00 40.67 80.00 35.92 30.00 50.00 40.00 27.26 24.50 31.09 26.00 67.98 30.43 33.00 20.75 Islamabad 15.00 34.25 38.00 40.79 24.83 60.71 53.29 20.00 32.85 31.86 41.00 67.25 55.00 46.75 30.00 35.00 36.00 40.75 28.00 55.75 30.00 33.00 45.70 14.49 28.00 55.00 47.00 30.00 50.00 Peshawar 20.64 22.39 26.00 20.93 30.00 Quetta 10.17 75.25 26.00 30.00 40.50 29.13 33.00 107.93 30.75 30.00 35.00 17.00 45.89 45.13 35.00 65.00 60.50 32.00 93.00 50.00 35.00 37.15 42.21 100.00 26.00 26.52 63.00 50.96 50.60 32.40 24.00 18.00 17.00 107.50 32.00 34.00 15.75 75.33 95.00 30.75 20.50 50.00 59.00 40.50 20.00 20.29 20.00 107.24 31.25 30.00 50.00 31.00 20.00 40.96 43.00 40.00 80.00 40.75 33.45 33.00 40.13 35.00 20.00 20.00 17.com.42 30.00 12.00 41.00 41.00 33.00 66.25 25.49 68.00 40.00 32.75 38.50 27.50 32.44 60.00 55.73 55.50 47.50 33.00 46.00 31.29 24.00 46.00 100.14 33.00 20.00 Gujranwala 10.00 25.50 52.00 55.00 50.50 50.00 12.00 50.00 15.50 27.42 30.00 50.00 20.00 25.75 33.86 30.85 10. Hyderabad 10.45 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics.25 33.17 41.50 27.00 32.00 50.4 DOCTOR CONSULTING FEE IN VARIOUS CITIES Period November " " " " " " " " " " 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 Faisalabad 10.00 42.35 36.91 26.00 42.79 27.57 52.00 50.75 50.00 32.00 26.42 30.00 30.50 33.00 40.00 35.00 75.00 60.88 31.00 50.00 20.96 50.00 .00 61.00 34.25 26.00 34.50 27.00 41.50 30.50 .00 10.00 25.67 75.50 32.88 31.50 29.00 80.00 50.00 23.75 30.67 10.00 22.19 35.88 27.00 40.00 32.25 41.00 30.00 45.00 78.00 50.67 75.00 32.00 48.00 20.00 54.00 32.17 20.00 38.67 40.00 15.12 26.93 100.33 41.00 40.00 32.00 43.50 20.00 20.08 41.00 75.68 50.00 34.00 60.00 90.54 32.00 32.00 20.00 43.50 Rawalpindi 15.63 45. Monthly Statistical Bulletins published by Accountancy (www.14 27.00 20.73 20.33 47.30 42.00 15.00 35.00 45.00 20.25 33.38 27.17 32.00 Sukkur (In rupees) Average 10.00 50.33 51.00 28.00 50.25 43.00 77.00 22.00 43.00 30.00 20.00 33.00 32.00 58.00 38.50 32.15 24.00 20.64 30.00 35.00 60.00 51. attained in the aftermath of the ‘floor imposition’ at the KSE in late 2008.7 Paid up capital as a %age of GDP 6. stood at Rs.2 %age of total registered companies. Central banks reacted quickly with exceptionally large interest rate cuts as well as unconventional measures to inject liquidity and sustain credit. Source: EA Wing. Aggregate market capitalization as at end March. A large part of the drying up of liquidity in the market is the absence of leveraged products. but these were weak and vulnerable.2 billion.1 Global Equity Markets Fiscal year 2009‐10 started with hope of recovery from the global financial crisis. the period under review.com.accountancy. Markets remain wobbly despite the size of the emergency package put together by the Eurozone countries for Greece. saw a recovery phase in the country’s premier capital market.1: EQUITY MARKET DEVELOPMENT (KSE) 2009‐10 (as of March 31) % Market capitalization to GDP 19.000 points.pk) . in what has been dubbed the “flash crash”. Table 12. An influx of foreign portfolio investment during the July to March FY10 period. The vulnerability of the global economic recovery as well as of the bull run in world financial markets has been underscored by the onset of the Greek debt crisis. which is low by comparison with many countries in Pakistan’s peer reference group. as measured by the MSCI‐Barra Price Index which measures the price performance of markets. From its recent trough in January 2009. July to March FY10. with Paid up capital of Rs. The global economy expanded for some time but its effect on employment has not yet been seen. The recovery after the financial crisis was fragile at its onset with signs that the world’s markets would recoup. Table 12. KSE.12 Capital Markets A total of 650 companies were listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) as of end‐March 2010. in line with the broad recovery in global equity markets. but volumes traded remain a fraction of the period prior to 2008. US markets plummeted on 6th May 2010 with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 1. 2.2 shows the performance of the global and regional markets since May 2009. It measures the sum of the free float‐weighted market capitalization price returns of all its constituents on a given day. Market capitalization to GDP is currently just under 20%. have powered the index. 171 published by Accountancy (www. with inflows crossing US$ 440 million at their peak.7 Number of listed companies at KSE as a 1. SECP 12. 894. the KSE 100 index is up 107%. The benchmark KSE‐100 index rose 33%. Global commodities and equities have seen a sharp sell off since early May.890 billion (US$ 35 billion).0 Stock Market turnover to paid up capital 3. MSCIBarra.14 295.9 2.7 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) 651 650 8 5 44. The other positives during 2009‐10 to which equity investors have responded have included the restoration of macroeconomic stability following the balance of payments crisis of 2008. of Pakistan’s outlook by Moody’s.0 Source: KSE 2008‐09 Important Measures Taken at KSE in 2009 x Introduction of corporate Bonds Automated Trading System.com 12.1 28.7 781.67 Source: www. On the back of the net buying by off‐shore investors. x Classification system launched by FTSE Group and Dow Jones Index. Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in the KSE has risen sharply for July to March 2009‐10.1 54 262. Even after the recent sell off in equities.9 706.5 4.236 22.2 Performance of KSE Mainly on the back of foreign buying. for large scale manufacturing in particular. to stable.2 658 16 49. both in August 2009.680.9 98.4 496 79.80 3.744 20.22 (In USD) 28th May 2009 %age change 761. the cumulative net inflow of foreign portfolio investment increased by US$ 431 million.000 mark on 12th March 2010 after a period of 18 months.019.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 12.2: PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING MARKETS MSCI Index EM (EMERGING MARKETS) EM ASIA EM EASTERN EUROPE EM EUROPE EM EUROPE & MIDDLE EAST EM FAR EAST EM LATIN AMERICA 28th May 2010 917.214 18. the IMF program (signed in November 2008) having remained on track for over a year.2 3.39 315. x Data Vending and Launch of Mobile KSE Automated Trading System (mKats) x Implementation of internationally accepted industry classification Benchmark a jointly developed.82 160. the KSE‐100 index has gained 33% since the start of fiscal year 2009‐10. despite the challenges. According to National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited (NCCPL) data.3: Profile of Karachi Stock Exchange Number of Listed Companies New Companies Listed Fund Mobilized (Rs billion) Listed Capital (Rs billion) Turnover of Shares (billion) Average Daily Turnover of Shares (million) Aggregate Market Capitalization (Rs billion) 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 658 14 41.000.047 374.801.890. Table 12.71 425.998 17.527 189.accountancy.com. the upgrading of Pakistan’s sovereign rating by Standard and Poor’s.1 115.6 179.83 348.4 63.3 238.02 3.8 894. and the revision.2 2.326 361.pk) .4 652 7 62.08 22.7 631.5 2. and the semblance of a growth recovery in the economy. the KSE‐100 index crossed the 10.5 348. 172 published by Accountancy (www.2 33.49 274.777. the KSE‐100 index has risen 74 per cent since its trough in January 2009.201 17.175 22.143.569 323. since the end of April. A disturbed law and order situation in the country.463 TOTAL 1. a balance of payments crisis.063 CORPORATES TOTAL 590.4: FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT (FPI) 14th May 2009 INVESTOR MARKET TYPE US DOLLAR FOREIGN REGULAR 15.179 INDIVIDUAL TOTAL 15. Table 12.Capital Markets x Risk Management.4 Corporate Profitability Corporate profitability has declined dramatically since 2006 (Fig 12.058 Source: NCCPL 12.93 million in Pakistan.3 Foreign Investment After massive outflows in 2H 2008. and the energy crisis have all combined to diminish profits. x Introduction of Exposure Dropout Facility during Trading Hours.063 OVERSEAS REGULAR 3.532. During the period. in line with the retrenchment witnessed in global financial markets following the eruption of the Greek debt issue. In comparison to 2008. As a result.463 REGULAR 42. However.com. 173 published by Accountancy (www. profits after tax declined 67% in 2009. After tax profits for the companies listed on the KSE have shrunk 77% between 2006 and 2009. foreign portfolio investment made a strong comeback in 2009‐10. and the resultant Rupee depreciation of over 20%. selling by foreign investors has reappeared. 12. x Introduction of Client Level Margining Regime. The net portfolio investment during July 2009‐March 2010 stood at $431. according to NCCPL.179 FOREIGN REGULAR 590.497.1).900 GRANDTOTAL 1.511) TOTAL 33. reflecting the impact of a difficult operating environment. from an average of 9 per cent in 2009 the share of overseas investment in total volumes at the local bourses increased to 15 per cent in March 2010. x Introduction of Client wise cash deposits allocation against exposure margin and losses. The inter‐ corporate debt issue in the energy sector has hit the otherwise most profitable listed sector particularly hard.273 PAKISTANI FOREIGN CORPORATES OVERSEAS PAKISTANI ‐‐‐ TOTAL 3. benchmark KSE‐100 Index has gained 38 per cent (33 percent in US$ terms).273 GRAND‐TOTAL 608.accountancy. x Pre‐settlement mechanism in Ready & Deliverable Future Contract Market.515 Source: NCCPL INVESTOR FOREIGN INDIVIDUAL OVERSEAS PAKISTANI 14th May 2010 MARKET TYPE US DOLLAR REGULAR 695 TOTAL 695 REGULAR 1. x Change in Penalty requirement on Net Capital Balance Certificate.412 FUTURE CONTRACT (8.497. x Restructuring of Net Capital Balance requirement.pk) . Fig‐12. Comparing the loss as well as profit making companies in 2008 and 2009 it can be observed that the decline in profit making companies was 54 (17%) while 21 (9.1: Corporate profitability (2005‐10) 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: KSE 100% Fig‐12.29 6.96 9 Fuel & Energy 27 27 182.88 ‐6.12 4 Auto & Allied 25 25 9.09 4.82 Pharmas 3 Engineering 13 13 2.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Since corporate profitability has a large bearing on future investment decisions.30 2. billion Profitability is concentrated in a few large companies in the Energy. 2008 2009 2008 2009 Cotton & other 1 209 208 7.45 2.pk) .2). Concentration has an effect of distortion on the profit calculations. Companies Sector (Rs billion) No.32 117.5: Companies Listed on KSE and their Before Tax Profits Profit Before No.48 Dividend Paying Companies 2008 2009 Profit Making Companies Loss Making Companies 2008 2009 2008 2009 37 34 69 61 96 94 20 19 26 22 6 10 6 11 6 12 8 18 6 13 2 4 2 8 4 4 6 4 1 3 11 4 2 15 3 3 21 6 6 25 5 12 15 3 15 10 4 9 17 13 18 17 8 9 174 published by Accountancy (www.com.6 8 Cement 21 21 ‐4.1%) more companies reported losses.2: Profits by Sector in 2009 Textile Sugar Misc. of Taxation S.95 7 Paper & Board 10 10 0.accountancy.7 Cables & Electric 5 9 9 3.03 14.5 Textiles Chemical & 2 34 34 10.35 4.19 1. Telecoms and Banking sector (see Fig‐12. 400 350 300 Rs. the sharp contraction in profits of listed companies over the past few years can partly explain the subdued investment response since 2008. Paper Chemicals Trans & comm Auto & Allied Cable & Elect Banks & Fis Cement Engineering Fuel & Energy ‐10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Source: KSE Table 12.74 Goods 6 Sugar & Allied 37 37 0. 66 78 40 90 55 55 71 12 Miscellaneous 85 88 44.09 37 31 50 41 19 27 653 656 301. Some of these include: x Listing requirements and cost of issuance has been fairly significant.5 Primary Mobilization at The KSE As shown in Table 12. In billion) 437. in conjunction with a number of other factors. 12.Capital Markets Table 12.4 18.2 4.9 1. Institutions 169 169 90.6 Islamabad Stock Exchange (ISE) At present there are 118 members of ISE out of which 104 are corporate bodies including commercial and investment banks.9 147.0 Sources: SBP.accountancy.0 0.4 2008‐09 101.7 408.1 2006‐07 119. making borrowing from banks a cheaper option.2 2007‐08 105.7 Bank credit disbursed as a %age of GDP 6.8 1.69 4. 14 15 ‐44. The ISE‐10 index began the fiscal year at 1715. In billion) 2004‐05 123.pk) . of Taxation S.5: Companies Listed on KSE and their Before Tax Profits Profit Before No.6. Development finance institutions (DFIs) and brokerage houses. EA wing.8 * Jul‐ Mar Bank credit disbursed (Rs. The average daily turnover has now crossed the figure of 1 million shares.7 365.7 2005‐06 71.6: Primary Mobilization New capital Year raised/issued (Rs.2 New capital raised as a %age of GDP 1. with the exception of the previous two years. 2008 2009 2008 2009 Dividend Paying Companies 2008 2009 Profit Making Companies Loss Making Companies 2008 2009 2008 2009 10 Transport & Comm.3 1. The rise in credit disbursed by banks is more pronounced from 2002‐03 onwards due to banking sector reforms.69 4 6 5 8 6 4 11 Bank & Fin.06 55.14 1. 175 published by Accountancy (www. The other 18 Members are individual persons.2 3.4 2009‐10* 252.3 231 186 323 269 230 251 Total Source: KSE 12.9 0.32 255. x Companies prefer to avoid the “regulatory burden” and greater disclosure associated with listing.9 0.7 5.53 points and ended the third quarter at 2442.com.64 46. Companies Sector (Rs billion) No.8 401.39 points. banks have historically played a much larger role in primary mobilization in Pakistan as compared to the capital markets. x Fear of loss of management control Table 12. 6 0.3 Source: LSE The total funds mobilized during July‐March 2009‐10 in the three stock exchanges (KSE. The market capitalization of the LSE has reduced from Rs.716 3.20 2.6 2.27 points in June 2008.4 261 15 24.78 billion.8 3. increased to 3201.101.accountancy. 721.330 ‐ Source: ISE 12.018.51 billion.7 Lahore Stock Exchange (LSE) The LSE‐25 index.6 2.713 1.872.064 billion in 2008‐09 to Rs.4 2. instruments of National Savings.6 0. Two new companies and two open‐ended funds were listed with the LSE during July‐March 2008‐09.5 469.132.7 488. as well as.746.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 12.16 the year before.7 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.5 6. seven in FY08 and four in FY09.2 511 9 32.8 608.859. 12. for the purposes of this discussion.8 514 2 29.2 374. billion) Turnover of Shares (billion) ISE Index Aggregate Market Capitalization (Rs billion) ‐ : Not available 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 240 6 5. SBP held five auctions of PIBs in FY07. LSE & ISE) amounted to Rs. 12.8 728.3 827. as compared to 5 new companies and 11 open‐ended funds in the fiscal year 2009‐10.325 billion till March 2010.7 664.379.9 3.6 248 7 24.482 billion in March 2009. The average daily turnover of shares on the exchange during July‐ March 2009‐10 was 2.20 2. Total paid up capital with the LSE increased from Rs.2 2.8 Debt Capital Markets The debt capital markets consists of the primary issuance and secondary trading of all bonds and fixed‐ income securities issued by the Government and private sector.3 2.4 2. The total turnover of shares in the three stock exchanges during the period was 36.2 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) 509 5 42.5 15 4. They provide the government with long term maturity debt.201.3 520 10 38.65 billion.060.7: Profile of Islamabad Stock Exchange Number of Listed Companies New Companies Listed Fund Mobilized (Rs. It was 8.8 594.5 3.6 ‐ 0.3 1. 2746.pk) .1 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) 242 1 61. The PIB portfolio was expanded in FY09 with the inclusion of a 7 years paper while rises in 176 published by Accountancy (www.2 points in March 2009.8: Profile of Lahore Stock Exchange Number of Listed Companies New Companies Listed Fund Mobilized (Rs billion) Listed Capital (Rs billion) Turnover of Shares (billion) LSE Index Aggregate Market Capitalization (Rs billion) 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 518 7 24.693.8‐1 Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) form a big chunk of Government securities.6 246 12 30. which was 2143.868.705.5 0.849.2 4.514.5 3. 252.6 8. Table 12.com. 1953.749. billion) Listed Capital (Rs.087 billion till March 2009 to Rs.633.6 551 0. 827. 40 2 Source: SBP Banks tended to negotiate higher rates on government guaranteed debt in the wake of low liquidity in the system.06 billion through the sale of 10‐year bond.75% 13. Hence.00% 15‐Years 12.03 ‐0.38 59 6.49 percent from 12.11: 3‐Year Ijara Sukuk Auctions Result For FY10 Date Jul08‐Jun09 (20‐12‐08) Jul08‐Jun09 (04‐03‐09) Jul‐Dec09 (05‐10‐2009) Total Target Offered Amount Accepted Amount Cut‐off Margin 10 10 10 40 7.10: Interest Rate Structure.55 12. in line with its increasing share in the total outstanding stock of PIBs. billions) Variance of Acceptance against Target ‐4.03 0. five and seven‐year bonds. Table 12.00% 30‐Years 13.06 Source: SBP From January to June 09 Sukuk bonds worth 19.com. Within the Permanent debt.351. million making the total Rs.80 14.70 10.75% Source: SBP The government raised Rs 8. 1.34 14.4 42 +75bps +0bps ‐5bps (Rs.36 12. Similarly.28 billion through three‐year bond.04 ‐0.40 percent and 12. Table 12.75 percent.94 12.14 13.00 +5.95 13. million 41. the rates for financing commodity 177 published by Accountancy (www. Table 12.30 percent.75 percent from 12.50 percent. while the second issuance in September 2009 was at KIBOR plus 2 percent.50% 20‐Years 13. It raised Rs 6.50% 11.43 30. the first issuance of the Term Finance Certificate (TFC) in March 2009 was priced at KIBOR plus 1.50% 12.75% 11.53 percent.24 Variance (H2FY09) bps ‐76 215 ‐120 ‐131 3‐Sep‐09 % 11‐Nov‐09 % 12. PIB retained its dominant share. 2010 increasing the yield on 10‐year PIB to 12.5 12.09 billion through five‐year bond and Rs 240 million through seven‐year bond. in addition to concern about concentration of exposure.pk) .accountancy.45 12.67 billion through auction of Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) on March 17.00% 13.75% 10‐Years 12. the cut‐off yields were raised to 12.40 12.Capital Markets discount rates caused revision of coupon rates.33 4.29 12.00 15.42 12. This increase was largely due to interest payments on 10‐ year PIBs. respectively.25% 11. For the three.25% 5‐Years 11. million were issued while from July to December 09 the figure was 22.70 percent from 12.44 Variance (H1FY10) bps ‐0.275 Rs.33 14.50% 7‐Years 11. FY 2008‐09 Tenors 3‐Years 5‐Years 7‐Years 10‐Years 31st Dec'08 (%) 31st Apr'09 (%) 13.26 12. 12. The breakup of domestic debt servicing data reveals that interest payments on the permanent debt increased significantly during Jul‐Jan FY10 compared to same period last year.9: PIB Coupon Rates for FY10 (Dec 09) Previous Current Tenor coupon Rate Coupon Rate (at 30Jun 09) 3‐Years 11.076 Rs.35 21. Rs. Rs 1.59 percent from 12.00% 12. accountancy.8 8.5 5.75 ‐17.10 9. KSE 3.2) 6.3 ‐39.Economic Survey 2009‐10 operations were around KIBOR plus 2.7 0. Table 12. 1. Total 8.3 (27.4 10.97 9.2 14.50 Source: SECP National Savings Organisation is the biggest non‐bank borrowing institution for the government. billions) 2009‐10 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 July‐Mar ‐5.0 13..2 ‐0.0 (10. with over six million account holders investing more than Rs.50 Ltd.2 38.6 27.com.93 11. The current year target for fresh investment is set at Rs.7 22.16 47.7 billion through NSB during Jan 2010. National Savings Organisation already manages over Rs. billions) Issue Name of Company Listed at Size Allied Bank Ltd.96 Source: Central Directorate of National Savings 178 published by Accountancy (www.6 29. Mobilization through prize bonds saw a significant improvement. The government was able to attract Rs 3.8 128.13: Net Accruals in National Savings Schemes Defence Savings Certificates Special Savings Certificates (R) Savings Accounts Special Savings Accounts Regular Income Certificates Pensioner’s Benefit Accounts Bahbood Savings Certificates National Prize Bonds Postal Life Insurance Grand Total 2004‐05 2005‐06 ‐8. 240 billion.07) 7.4) (35.7 ‐83. Debt servicing cost being incurred against matured stock of DSCs forms more than 50% of the total debt servicing cost on the unfunded debt.6 ‐57.500 billion. Also the debt servicing cost of Behbood Saving Certificates (BSC) and Special Saving Certificates (SSC) increased significantly in the period under discussion. Special Savings Certificates and Special Savings Accounts remained the attractive instruments for the investor despite the higher interest rate offered by Bahbood Saving Certificates and Pensioner’s Benefit Account.7 60.32 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 67.0 8.9 ‐40.0 ‐0.12: Floatation of TFCs. July 09 ‐ March 10 (Rs.4 59.7 17.00 Askari Bank Ltd.1 165.3 14.3 40.5 267.4 ‐7.5 21. The NSB bonds are relatively of a small size of Rs.9 ‐1.7 (Rs. LSE 3. This was mainly due to the decision of the government to increase the amount of prizes on different denominations in Feb 2009.9) (1. The National Savings Bonds (NSBs) mark a paradigm shift of government borrowings from the banking sector to the non‐banking sector — the latter being relatively less inflationary.7 9.5 45.3 10.8‐2 National Savings Scheme (NSS) Table 12.6 3.5 to 2.6 16. a major development was the introduction of first ever tradable National Saving Bond (NSB) in Jan 2010. The interest payments on the matured stock of DSCs still constitute a major share in the total interest payments on unfunded debt. 3. Within the permanent debt. However it is pertinent to note here that the outflow in the form of interest payments on DSC is declining overtime. but they would extend the outreach of the stock exchanges as they would deepen the domestic debt market.7 ‐15.6 billion at the start. 12.2 9. 1 trillion of public money in various savings schemes. as the major amount raised against these certificates was issued at significantly higher interest rates during FY09.3 ‐2.8 78.pk) .5 18. The National Savings bonds (NSBs) are authorized by the Ministry of Finance and backed by a sovereign guarantee of the government of Pakistan.00 Engro Chemical Pakistan KSE 2.8 ‐4.75 percent.1 33.4 51.6 89. 2009). 11. notwithstanding the challenges of already deeply entrenched interest‐ based financing system and resource mobilization constraints. investments in the listed securities has also shown a marginal decline from Rs.e. especially from NSS. 2009.316 3. in million): Total Deposits (Rs.2009 to Rs. 24. Investment Banks were not able to compete owing to their limited access to resource mobilization coupled with low capitalization and limited branch network when compared to the commercial banks offering the similar services. one housing company was acquired by another group and three leasing companies were merged with other entities. The major financial indicators of the sector are summarized as under: Total Assets (Rs. As on March 31. 2010 there are eight (8) active licensed investment banks. 11. 2. 26. It is expected that the financial indicators will 179 published by Accountancy (www. there are still significant challenges for the leasing sector.266 5. The major financial indicators of the sector are summarized as under: Total Assets (Rs.187 Investment Banks have not been able to make any significant contribution as primarily they focused on the analogous financial services as offered by the conventional banking sector. leasing companies have undergone significant transformation in the last few years. 12. Non‐bank finance. Most visible are structural changes in the leasing sector on account of mergers and amalgamations. in million): Total Equity (Rs.accountancy. 166 billion compared to Rs. made it possible to arrest the borrowings from the banking system in FY10.397 million as on 31. in million): Total Equity (Rs. 2009‐ March. However. 267 billion for the whole of last year.97 3.6. 2010. the sector has performed reasonably well and shown a steady growth in the past few years. During the period July.9‐2 Investment Banks 40. in million): 12.com.358.334 million (30. . 2010 there are nine (9) active licensed leasing companies. There is a decrease in the assets of the Modaraba sector from Rs.854 million from the corresponding period.2009) to Rs. was merged with and into Invest Capital Investment Bank Ltd.Capital Markets The NSS during the first ten months of 2009‐10 attracted Rs. Al‐Zamin Leasing Corporation Ltd. in million): 12.556 million (31.pk) .616.12.27 During the last two decades.12.499.6. fee and commission based.626 million as on 30.9‐1 Leasing Due to a competitive operating environment and liquidity problems. there is a slight increase in the equity from Rs. financial services As on March 31. Investment banks are being encouraged for a more viable and sustainable business model to be tilted more towards offering of non‐funded i.616 million to Rs. Similarly.9 Investor Base 12.2009.37 27. and ORIX Investment Bank Limited was merged with and into ORIX Leasing Pakistan Limited. During the period July‐December. Despite consolidations /mergers.9‐3 MODARABAS 31. 1. in million): Total Deposits (Rs. 1. 1. 2009.004 million as on December 31.51 13.779 million as on 31.32 10. and (iii) maximize the efficiency of property utilization by creating an equilibrium between demand and supply of property on the one hand and provide more efficiently managed shared use rental properties on the other.9‐4 Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Pakistan has witnessed a property boom in the last decade and the launching of REITs as a new investment product will: (i) provide retail investors the opportunity to share the dividends from the robust real‐estate sector. The major financial indicators of the sector are summarized as under: Total Assets Total liabilities Total Equity (Rs. 12.com. 24.068 billion as on March 31st. 10. while the industry was at Rs. 2010. due to its intrinsic nature of being a high risk asset class.Economic Survey 2009‐10 improve on the betterment in the financial and economic conditions of the country. (ii) facilitate professional developers in undertaking mega‐construction projects without the traditional liquidity issues that property development companies are confronted with.9‐5 Private Equity & Venture Capital Fund (PE & VCF) Private Equity and Venture Capital Fund (PE & VCF) is a unlisted closed‐end unit trust fund open only to high net‐worth individuals and institutions.pk) .03. Similarly. 180 published by Accountancy (www. In million) 24. In million) (Rs. Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan approved the regulatory framework for registration and regulation of PE&VC Funds in Pakistan Unfortunately due to dismal law and order situation and general economic downturn.24.9‐6 Voluntary Pension System Seven Pension Funds (four Islamic and three conventional) have been launched under the Voluntary Pension System Rules. investment in the listed securities was 1. 12. 6 Modarabas are in the process of winding up. 2005.77 12. the industry stood at Rs. In million) (Rs.497 million. In March 2009. In August 2008. there has not been much activity in this area.12.accountancy.03. While the seed capital generated was Rs. As on March 31st 2010. The assets of the Modaraba sector stood at Rs. there were 41.516 million as on 31.2010 as compared to Rs.397 million as on 31.2010. Moreover the equity was Rs. The approval and certification by the Religious Board for twelve new Islamic financing agreements would eliminate disparity and bring Modarabas at a same level with other financial institutions for resource mobilization.2009. the Commission granted two permissions to incorporate REIT Management Companies (RMC) in Pakistan who would launch REIT schemes after obtaining the prerequisite approvals from the Commission. 690 million. registered Modaraba Companies and 26 Modarabas in existence. The said system would assist in eliminating chances of misuse of one client’s margins against exposure requirements of other clients. was anticipated especially keeping in view the fact that appetite towards risk had subdued in the aftermath of the crisis that entangled the industry in late 2008.091 27. which is geared at reducing the risk associated with trading at the stock exchanges by progressively increasing the circuit breakers on individual scrips thereby allowing the securities a wider range for movement. Growth was primarily evidenced in the categories of money market. This re‐launch was characterized by measures for revamped risk management of the said product. however. in the earlier half of the year 2009.e. 182 billion in January.accountancy. i.com.10 Capital Market Reforms The focus of the reforms was to improve risk management of the market.016 13. Table 12. 2009.2010 compared to 116 in December.069 9.9‐7 Mutual Funds Mutual Funds marched on the road to recovery during the period July – December. The Deliverable Futures Contract Market was relaunched in view of the market need for a derivative product. as on 28th February 2010* as compared to Rs. 12.101 Total Equity 4. 2009 to Rs. were approved in the Regulations governing Risk Management of the Stock Exchanges. effects of which carried forward till the first half of 2009. in line with international best practices.991 4. 2009 compared to 95 in January. had constituted national‐level forums comprising of all the 181 published by Accountancy (www. The total number of mutual funds stood at 116 in December.289 Total Liabilities 34.14: Snapshot of key financials as at March 31.151 Source: SECP 12.553 10. 2009. the SECP is facilitating the stock exchanges in exploring avenues for introduction of Index based Market Halts. 2009 substantiating marginal growth in the number of mutual funds launched. and capital‐protected funds.million) Modaraba’s 23. This shift. Another important measure was the phase‐wise implementation of the client‐level margining system at the stock exchanges and the NCCPL. The concept of Concentration Margins was introduced.The total number of mutual funds stood at 121 as at March 31. increasing from Rs.11 Developmental Activities The SECP. Despite the unprecedented financial turmoil.Capital Markets 12. The net assets of the mutual fund industry amounted to Rs 253 billion. 90 billion to the investors.181 Total Deposits 3. mutual fund industry in general withstood the down turn and successfully managed mounting redemption pressure by repaying in excess of Rs. 2009 substantiating an uptrend in the industry both in terms of growth in net assets as well as number of mutual funds launched. 258 billion in December.808 (Rs. 2010 Leasing Companies Investment Banks Total Assets 39. Also.171 4. income. 258 billion in December.153 31. and amendments pertaining to the implementation of the same in place of special margins on derivative products.pk) . 2009 with net assets showing an increase of 42%. Securities Lending and Borrowing and Pledging) Rules.accountancy. 182 published by Accountancy (www. has been submitted by the SECP and the KSE and NCCPL have been advised to develop necessary systems and to formulate requisite regulatory framework for the said product. the Group submitted its report on Margin Financing.Economic Survey 2009‐10 prominent stakeholders. the SECP is currently in the process of framing the Securities (Margin Financing. The said regime is to be implemented in a phased manner. The Consultative Group on Capital Markets is acting as an independent think tank for important policy decisions in relation to the development of capital markets. In view of the above and the in‐principle approval earlier granted by the SECP to the NCCPL for the development of a Securities Lending and Borrowing mechanism. which was to serve as an alternate leverage product to cater for the financing appetite of the market after the discontinuation of CFS Mk‐II. In the later half of the year.com.pk) . A final concept paper. after detailed deliberations with all relevant stakeholders. in order to provide a broader legal framework for the above mentioned concepts. This product will be available for both proprietary trade and clients of brokerage houses. The Consultative Group also submitted its recommendations with respect to a revised brokers’ regime encompassing the capital adequacy requirements and code of conduct for the brokers. An important feature of the said regime is the linkage it creates between the capital adequacy requirements of a broker and his risk profile. 8 3.4 2.6 15.4 0.7 2.1 29.0 8.TABLE 9.1 35.2 42. KSE.8 18.2 54.1 3.5 15.3 0.4 0.1 24.pk) .3 98.7 3.2 4.6 27.5 2. LSE.0 88.3 104.0 41.1 NUMBER OF LISTED COMPANIES.9 17.7 11.3 5.8 61.7 48.2 iii) Fund Mobilized (Rs billion) iv) Total Turnover of Shares (In billion) LAHORE STOCK EXCHANGE i) Total Listed Companies ii) New Companies Listed ii) Fund Mobilized (Rs billion) iv) Total Turnover of Shares (In billion) ISLAMABAD STOCK EXCHANGE i) Total Listed Companies ii) New Companies Listed ii) Fund Mobilized (Rs billion) iv) Total Turnover of Shares (In billion) Source: SECP.1 24.5 14.4 1.158 0.1 53.6 7.8 4.4 2.5 2.7 68.2 23.accountancy.8 56.1 1.2 19.1 42.8 28.1 97.9 0.3 28.1 1.4 49.2 30.3 92.1 33.2 29.7 49. ISE published by Accountancy (www.5 38. FUND MOBILISED AND TOTAL TURNOVER OF SHARES IN VARIOUS STOCK EXCHANGES 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Jul-Mar 2009-10 KARACHI STOCK EXCHANGE i) Total Listed Companies 762 747 712 702 668 659 658 658 652 652 650 ii) New Companies Listed 1 4 4 2 16 15 14 12 5 8 5 0.7 0.6 5.4 1.7 - 614 581 561 647 524 518 520 514 512 511 2 3 3 2 18 5 6 8 2 2 5 0.9 17.4 3.com.7 28.7 - 281 267 260 251 232 240 246 247 240 242 0 5 3 1 8 5 2 7 3 4 1 0 0. 6 59.1) (11.990.588.2 6.841.899.5) (1.521.0 - - - - - - (203.5 2008-09 (2.989.4) 4.3 8.220.7 78.891.627.163.277.8) (6.0 26.3 15 National Savings Bonds Grand Total 2005-06 (5.7) 12.9 (25.5) (23.5 - (39.0 2.6) 6.7 (8.2) 51.636.0 (12.7) 0.335.0 60.2 6 Special Savings Certificates (B) 2003-04 7.7 169.090.135.7 Source : Central Directorate of National Savings published by Accountancy (www.311.7) - - 13.3) 5 Special Savings Certificates (R) 36.923.357.5 38.563.1) (2.7 - - 16.448.0 10.1 (10.975.076.382.1 Jul-Mar 2009-10 2004-05 (6.0) (15.6) (4.460.0 3.800.215.7 56.3) 11.9 (273.469.0 27.2 (1.pk) .9) (49.6 47.0 (0.2 - 10.9 9.9 5.8) (1.1) (0.5 120.0) (50.668.899.1) (13.695.5) 40.8 267.7 71.825.324.650.691.1 (19.0) (709.804.170.317.468.935.8 Figures in Parenthesis represent negative signs R : Registered B : Bearer .737.5) (40.5) 18.com.104.9 85.8 129.0 13.accountancy.650.4) (5.4 45.6) (0.3) (35.2 1.325.612.799.537.3 (8.TABLE 9.3) (83.8) 92.037.1) 0.2 89.551.1 (729.759.2) (1.094.6) (2.6) 9.1) (7.046.3 8.396.0) (6.7 8.7) 84.305.6) 8.840.5) 33.257.8) 11.369.894.7 14.0) (172.3 (0.048.238.976.3 (13.4) (2.9) (329.8) (5.411.638.6 18.5 21.3 21.4 (202.2 NATIONAL SAVING SCHEMES (NET INVESTMENT) (Rs.654.9 45.215.: Not available 10.3 17.9) (57.5 - - - - - - 3.1 29.214.3) (14.7 - 10.3) (2.417.7 - 91.209.1 14.5) 3.371.6 5.007.6) (3.443. Million) Name of Scheme 1 Defence Savings Certificates 2 National Deposit Scheme 3 Khaas Deposit Scheme 4 Premium Savings Scheme 2001-02 2002-03 22.1 22.367.3 22.667.663.6 128.5 7 Regular Income Certificates 8 Pensioners' Benefit Account 9 Savings Accounts 10 Special Savings Accounts 11 Bahbood Saving Certificates 12 Mahana Amdani Accounts 13 Prize Bonds 14 Postal Life Insurance 2006-07 2007-08 (4.371.266.8 9.753.4) (27.6) 7.199.830.7 - 143.9 22.1 11.737. a.a.a. 1999.a.000 made on or after 01-07-2002 3 Years 5 Years 3 Years 7 Years Running Account 10 Years 10 Years Taxable and discontinued Taxable Taxable and discontinued Taxable and discontinued Taxable for balances exceeding Rs. Taxable for deposits exceeding Rs.00% p. 150. Pakistan Investment Bonds Tenor 3-Year Maturity 5-Year Maturity 7-Year Maturity 10-Year Maturity 15-Year Maturity 20-Year Maturity 30-Year Maturity Rate of Profit 11. Foreign Currency Bearer Certificate (FCBC). Profit is payable @ LIBOR + 2.67% p. If Certificate of Rs 1000 encashed after 3 year investor will get Rs 1520 December 1999 however. February 1999.e.a 13.00% on bonds reinvested for 3 years on Special US$ Bonds redeemed against 3 and 7 years maturity. If Certificate of Rs 1000 encashed after 5 year investor will get Rs 1990 rate will be applicable g.a 11.000 Source: State Bank of Pakistan and Central Directorate of National Savings published by Accountancy (www. If Certificate of Rs 1000 encashed before 1 year investor will get Rs 1000 (face value) b. from d.15% p.a for each of 1st five profit 11.a. p. Foreign Exchange Bearer Certificate (FEBC) a. Mahana Amdani Accounts 10. Schemes Markup/Profit Rate Maturity Period Tax Status 1.42% p.pk) .f.a 12. f.00% p. If Certificate of Rs 1000 encashed after 6 year investor will get Rs 2310 2. If Certificate of Rs 1000 encashed after 2 year investor will get Rs 1310 already been discontinued. the facility of reinvestment has been discontinued since October 2002.16% p.a 13.com.TABLE 9.16% p. 150.00% 4.00% Khas Deposit Scheme 13.3 MARK UP RATE/PROFIT RATE ON DEBT INSTRUMENTS CURRENTLY AVAILABLE IN THE MARKET S. 150. Bahbood Savings Certificate 14. Prize Bonds 10.00% LIBOR+1.000 made on or after 01-07-2002 Taxable and discontinued 3 Years Taxable for deposits exceeding Rs.a 12.41% p.No. Special US$ Bonds a) 3 year maturity b) 5 year maturity c) 7 year maturity LIBOR+1.a : Per annum R : Registered B : Bearer m : on maturity Coupon rate are given for 30th August 2008 issue.a 5. 5 years Scheme has already been discontinued w.25% p.50% p.a.50% LIBOR+2.a (m) 10 Years 13.50% p. for the last one porfit 12.a.00% p.a 11. 3. If Certificate of Rs 1000 encashed after 4 year investor will get Rs 1740 outstanding balance till maturity.75% p. If bonds are encashed before one year no profit will be paid. 7 Years National Deposits Schemes Special Saving Certificates (R) 11. Only repayment is made The rates are effective form Sept.a.00% p.50% p.a.accountancy. If Certificate of Rs 1000 encashed after 1 year investor will get Rs 1145 Sale under this scheme has c. Pensioners' Benefit Account 14.00% p.00% Regular Income Certificates 12. However.60% p. on e.(m) Saving Accounts 8.75% p. Special Saving Certificates (B) 13. Unfunded Debt Defence Saving Certificates 12. The cumulative effect has been that the growth rate of Pakistan’s primary energy supply. with each downstream player in the energy chain being forced to delay payments to upstream entities (for fuel supplies).1 Supply of Energy Primary energy supply and per capita availability of energy witnessed a decline of 0. a significant gap still exists between generation cost and recovery. 183 published by Accountancy (www.58 percent and 2. due in large part to the adverse developments outlined above. With no change allowed in the electricity tariff between 2003 and 2007. and the final tariff. Some idea of the “viability gap” that had built up in the electricity generation sector can be had from the fact that.1). skewed the “fuel mix” of the electricity generation sector towards fuel oil. The cumulative effect of the energy crisis on the economy is estimated at upward of 2 percent of GDP during 2009‐10 alone. Final energy consumption is estimated to have declined by 5.pk) . which began decelerating in 2007‐08. large domestic supply shortages of electricity and gas occurred. giving rise to the inter‐corporate “circular” debt issue in the entire energy supply chain. is the root cause of the circular debt issue. and a higher than normal shortage of gas. Lower accumulation of water reserves in dams compounded the severity.accountancy.09 percent respectively during July‐March 2009‐10 over the same period last year (see Table 13. the compounded effect on the viability of the energy sector has been devastating. which put enormous upward pressure on the cost structure in the power generation (and transport) sector. Developments outlined above engendered a negative feedback loop in the electricity sector. Despite hefty increases in end‐user electricity tariffs over the past two years. The fall in energy supply during current period can be attributed to inter corporate circular debt problem. The lower availability of hydel resources for generation. has turned negative in 2008‐09 and 2009‐10 (July‐March). This “imbalance” between cost of generation and distribution. Against a backdrop of a sharp increase in the international price of oil through calendar 2009. This decrease in the primary energy supply and per capita availability during the first nine months of the current fiscal year is higher than its fall in the full year of 2008‐09 when primary energy supply and per capita availability narrowed down by 0. prior to the most recent tariff increase. the effect on the cost structure of the utilities was amplified greatly.3 percent during calendar 2009. in particular. Since this occurred at a time of a doubling of the international oil price.27 percent respectively.64 percent and 3.Energy 13 Energy sector issues and developments continued to severely constrain Pakistan’s economy in 2009‐10. The net effect is a declining effective utilization of available generation capacity in the system. Pakistan’s Energy Sector 13.com. the gap between average generation cost and recovery was close to 30 percent. 36 6.pk) . the share o of gas consumpttion stood at 43.28 2000‐01 44 4.0 perccentage pointts during 200 08‐09 compared d to 2003‐04 while oil con nsumption share declined by 9.com.8 4 ‐0.32 0. E : estimatted 13.32 1.25 2002‐03 47.4 peercent and LPG L 1. coal an nd LPG sourcees with the different levels of shares.38 ‐2.25 2004‐05 55.55 ‐0.07 1.31 1999‐00 43.18 0. the share of coal consum mption increased due to its higher prod duction during the perio od under reeview.86 2003‐04 50 0.0 percent.72 0. The shifting s of energy consumpttion towards indigenous reesources savees the considerable amoun nt of foreign reserve durin ng the period.Economic SSurvey 2009‐10 Table 13.45 2005‐06 58 8.0% Coal 10. Pakisttan’s final eneergy consump ption of abou ut 37.7 percent in total eneergy mix of ccountry during 2008‐09 fo ollowed by oil 29.3% Gas 34. oil.5% LPG 1 1.34 5. coal 10.2 2% Fig-2: Energy Co onsumption by y Soruce (20 008-09) Electricity 15.accountancy.37 2.78 0.4% Coal 9.86 2008‐09 62. electtricity.09 TOE‐ Tons of Oil Equivaleent Source: H Hydrocarbon D Development In nstitute of Pakiistan.29 2009‐10 E 46.7% 4 Source: H Hydrocarbon D Development In nstitute of Pakiistan 184 published by Accountancy (www.7% 3 Gas 43.28 ‐3.58 9.3 million n tons of oil eequivalent aree met by mix of gas.32 2.5 58 0. Fig-1: Energy Consu umption by So ource (2003-04) LPG Electtricity 1.51 0.39 2.92 3.8 82 0.63 2001‐02 45.1 4 0.19 3.3% Oil % 38.26 0.06 4.2 Enerrgy Consumpttion During 20 008‐09.62 4.1 1: Primary Ene ergy Supply and d Per Capita A Availability Year Energyy Supply Per Capitaa Million TOE Change e (%) Availability (TOE) Change (%)) 1998‐99 41.0 06 0. electricity 15 5.33 0. Furthermore.3 percent.3% 16.40 2.50 0.4 41 0.32 ‐1. Furtherm more.5% Oil 29.85 8. the consumpttion mix has witnessed siggnificant chan major con nsumption so ources of gas witnessed an increased d of 9.06 4.38 2. this energy nges since 20 003‐04 (See FFig 1 and Fig 2 2). As a resullt. A As.6 64 0.5 perceentage points during the p period under revview. These changes in consumption n of gas and d oil mainly owed to shiift from imp ported expensivee fuel to rellatively cheaper source of gas.5 percent.61 2007‐08 62.27 Jul‐Mar 2008‐09 47.48 2006‐07 60 0. 1 223 ‐8.com. Energy consumption in all sources has witnessed a negative growth rate during 2008‐09 mainly on the back of lower economic activity and circular debt problem during the period.9 10.304 10.accountancy.080 2008‐09 97 ‐19.080 7. the energy consumption in petroleum products.9 367 18.1 percent during July‐March 2009‐10 against the same period last year (see table 13.269.0 Avg.1 percent. the consumption of petroleum products has increased by an average rate of 0.084 5.2: Annual Energy Consumption Fiscal Year Petroleum Products Gas Electricity Coal Tonnes Change (mmcft) Change (Gwh) Change M.5 Jul‐Mar 08‐09 12.5 18. 3.580 4.1 959.3.837 ‐5. This long term trend suggests that composition of annual energy consumption is shifting from petroleum products to other energy sources.3 1. the overall consumption of petroleum products exhibits an increase of 8.271 14. Component Wise Performance of Energy 13.911 ‐0. due to revival in the macroeconomic activity.8 7.5 969 ‐9. While the power sector consumption of petroleum 185 published by Accountancy (www.0 e: Electricity consumption for AJ&K is estimated on the basis of actual six months data *Million Tonnes Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan 13.0 percent and 10.3: Consumption of Petroleum Products (000 tonnes) (Percentage Change) Year House Change Industry Change Agriculture Change Transport Change Power Change Other Change Total holds (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Govt.1 08‐09 17.111 28.3 6.384 17.0 12.9 109 12. Table 13.0 percent and 12.1 8.937 8.6 7.pk) . 5.5 6.7 percent in energy consumption of electricity is mainly owed to circular debt problem during July‐March 2009‐10.653 ‐1.400 0.892 931.3 million tonnes from 14. electricity and coal has increased at an average rate of 6.475 3. (%) 2007‐08 121 14. Whereas.2 17.275.700 55.071 ‐32.3).Energy During the last ten years (1999‐00 to 2008‐09).911 Jul‐Mar 2008‐09 75 718 50 6.7 5.1 311 ‐4. industry and transport sectors consumed the higher quantity of petroleum products during the period under consideration. 10 years 0.0 54.822 09‐10 (e) 13.433 ‐0.2).390 ‐17.2 million tonnes in same period last year thereby witnessing the 14.T* Change (000) (%) (%) (%) (000) (%) 07‐08 18.371 ‐4.5 70 ‐36. While the decline of 1.5 70.7 9.1 1.1 750 4.309 5.212 4. The consumption of gas.4 44 ‐11.8 5.892 2009‐10 68 ‐9.497 245 12.3‐a Petroleum Product The petroleum products energy supplies during July‐March 2009‐10 increased to 16. Due to increased petroleum products energy supplied.0 percent respectively during July‐March 2009‐10 over the corresponding period last year. gas and coal has witnessed a positive growth rates of 8.5 percent per annum.4 73.2 6.9 13.2 8.5 percent per annum (see Table 13.8 percent.570 6.614 4.9 1.6 percent growth during the period. Table 13.937 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan The power. Improvement of domestic demand led the increase in the consumption of petroleum products by transport and industry. 9 35.614 11.6 162.2 4.5 65.0 71.5 26.0 22.3 ‐6. Decline in power sector’s gas consumption is based on the inter corporate circular debt reason.2 ‐1.5 2. many major sectors have witnessed positive growth rates during July‐March FY10 (see Table 13.5 3.8 233. Table 13.6 percent during July‐March 2009‐10. the sector wise consumption of gas suggests that the household. Due to this increase in availability of natural gas.7 percent has been witnessed in cement sector’s gas consumption on the back of contraction in its external demand during the period along with the switch over to coal for production.6 3.0 70.1 7.4: Consumption of Gas (Billion cft) Year House Change Comm‐ Change Change Cement hold (%) ercial (%) (%) 07‐08 204.3 264.4 33.6 3.5).6 3.0 8.1 3.400 4.8 8.0 6.4 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan 13.6 9. commercial.0 18. The maximum decline of 72. fertilizer and transport sector witnessed positive growth in consumption of gas during 2008‐09.225.7 149.0 08‐09 214. The increase in industrial consumption owes to rise in domestic demand for manufacturing production during the period.0 3.8 09‐10 (e) 2. Furthermore.4 4.9 Industrial GWH Chang (000) e (%) 20.3 (Percent change) Transport Change P (CNG) (%) mmcft 72.7 Agriculture GWH Change (000) (%) 8.5 429.6 14. Table 13.Economic Survey 2009‐10 products is based on circular debt faced by refineries forcing them to consume higher amount of final petroleum products.8 55.0 33.3 ‐50.0 ‐72. with the exception of cement and power sectors.1 percent during 2008‐09.2 July‐March 08‐09 4.7 54.653 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan e: Electricity consumption for AJK is estimated on the basis of actual six months data 1.236.1 0.3 12. GWH Change Total (000) (%) 4.1 5.0 24.725.7 7.9 7.9 19.6 200. the overall electricity consumption has followed a declining trend since 2008‐09.0 322.5 Street Light Change Gwh (%) 415.5 8.7 ‐1.6 319.0 ‐6. On the other hand.7 1.3 ‐4.7 08‐09 5.3‐b Natural Gas The supply of gas has exhibited an increase of 1. As overall electricity consumption in the country has witnessed a negative growth of 1.2 430.1 5.accountancy.6 88.0 27.6 14.1 201. The increase in supply owes to higher production of 1.0 7.3 73.7 Ferti‐ lizer Change Change Indus‐ Chang Power (%) (%) trial e (%) ‐13.018. 13.3 ‐6.8 246.5 (p) P: Provisional 9.4 28.3 ‐5.0 23.9 5.3 ‐42.com.7 4. gas consumption in the transport sector increase due to shift from imported fuel oil to relatively cheaper source of gas during July‐March 2009‐10.6 (Percentage Change) Other Govt.2 364.8 404.7 8.1 Jul‐Mar 08‐09 171.5 7.9 09‐10 184.1 ‐1.2 5.1 1.2 186 published by Accountancy (www.7 percent during July‐March 2009‐10 over the same period last year (see Table 13.5: Consumption of Electricity by Sectors House hold Commercial Trac‐ Year GWH Change GWH Change tion (%) (000) (%) (000) 07‐08 8.1 6.0 32.3 6.6 percent in natural gas during the period under review.pk) . More recently.8 ‐4.6 278.371 307.2 5.3‐c Electricity For reasons discussed earlier.4). the overall consumption of gas remained higher during the period.8 3. The consumption of gas by industry has witnessed a significant increase of 5.3 percent during July‐March 2009‐10 especially after the declined of 1. Rs. a major input in the generation of electricity. large amounts of circular debt were created whereby power producing companies were unable to receive payments from distribution companies. Office of Government Adjuster has been activated to improve recoveries from provinces. Rs. As evident from the rising furnace oil prices thereby increasing the electricity prices (see Fig 3) Circular Debt Resolution On 01‐06‐2009 Rs 214 billion On 30‐06‐2009 Rs 216 billion On 18‐05‐2010 Rs 120 billion Fig 3: Furnace Oil (FO) & Residential Electricity (1‐100 units) Prices 4.7 billion.5 50. Government of Pakistan picked up PEPCO’s receivables on account of FATA’s current dues. Government has picked up entire past liability of FATA of Rs 85.5 30.5 70. Currently the government is regularly revising the power tariffs in line of international oil prices changes to recover the cost of power. 301.000 Electricity Price (Rs) 3.0 billion. 95. 187 published by Accountancy (www. PEPCO is being persuaded to pro‐actively recover the dues from defaulting private consumers. Power tariff are being reviewed regularly to recover the cost of power.000 1 10.000 60.000 2 1.accountancy.com. This situation was further complicated by the increase in the international price of oil during 2008 (see Fig 3).0 billion.5 0 Feb 07 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 08 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 09 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 10 Feb Mar Apr May 0 x Assumption of Rs. in‐turn the power producers could not make payments to the fuel suppliers. x x x x x x x Power tariff differential claim (subsidy) paid to power sector companies.0 billion by Power Holding Company will to be complete soon. 40.5 20. Markup payments of loan are being made regularly.000 FO 4 Elect FO Rs/Tonne 3 40. 16.000 0. The inability to increase the consumers’ energy tariff prior to fiscal year 2007‐08 even though generation cost kept increasing gave rise to substantial cost‐tariff differential.0 billion paid.pk) .Energy Box‐1: Circular Debt Situation and Steps Taken The circular debt problem plaguing the power sector stems from a disparity between cost and tariffs of Energy. As the subsidy element (difference between cost and tariff) grew. Measures are being taken to restructure the sector in order to improve its efficiency.000 2. Rs. 974 21 1.340 9. Out of which Rs. 2010 to resolve Power Sector issues.211 5.000 100.844 194 1.425 ‐966 188 published by Accountancy (www.939 million in the month of April 2010.accountancy.496 39. 103.245 OGDCL GHPL PPL 14. Rest by the Provincial Governments.000 30‐04‐10 31‐03‐10 26‐02‐10 29‐01‐10 31‐12‐09 26‐11‐09 29‐10‐09 17‐09‐09 28‐08‐09 31‐07‐09 0 Source: CF Wing.162 6.Economic Survey 2009‐10 x Energy Summit has been convened on 19‐20 April.510 5. payables and net position of overall circular debt as on 30th April 2010 is presented in the table below. the net position of overall circular debt is witnessing a declining trend during July‐April 2009‐10 (see Fig‐4).com. Fig‐4: Net Position of Inter Corporate Circular Debt Position Rs million 200. 190. INTER CORPORATE CIRCULAR DEBT AS ON 30TH APRIL 2010 RECEIVABLES PSO PEPCO HUBCO KAPCO OGDCL PIA Others Price Differential Claim Total SSGCL KESC PEPCO (JPCL) PEPCO (QUETTA) SNGPL Pakistan Steel GDS Total SNGPL PEPCO Principal PAYABLES (Rs.0 billion will be disbursed by Federal Government.828 Total 27.953 million in July 2010 to Rs.300 6. In addition.383 12. in million) Net Principal Position of Entities 36. x An amount of Rs. As the end‐month net position of overall circular debt declined from Rs.067 ‐ 26. 66.525 17.000 150.485 4.421 PARCO PRL NRL ARL Bosicor 31.027 21.0 billion will be provided to the system under a plan submitted by Finance Division.221 6.996 17.pk) .320 30.440 106.212 OGDCL 10.673 1.000 50. Finance Division The company wise receivables.120 1. 116.794 Other Total 469 75. 857 NRL PRL OGDCL ‐ ‐ ‐ Total ‐ ‐ ‐ 2.& Others ‐ 1.880 PPL GHPL SSGCL 6. of Balochistan/GOB Share Private Others Total OGDCL SNGPL SSGCL PSO ARL NRL PRL PARCO ENAR PEPCO UPL BOSICOR Pak.Deptt.993 1.190 2.406 42.Deptt.972 16.&AJK Govt.255 45.591 12.273 94.005 Gas OIL IPPs WAPDA Hydel 24.395 5.253 2.Govt.857 ‐ 29.) Total PARCO PRL NRL PSO Others Total KESC Federal Government Federal Auton.414 1.857 13.610 GHPL SSGCL SNGPL ARL PRL NRL 6. Dues Total City Distt.700 2.Govt.055 7.130 9.com.338 607 79.716 2.903 Others Total 8.863 3.898 35.508 1.073 31.715 14.580 191.740 29.249 4.800 ‐8.526 ‐39.585 Total 20.accountancy.108 9.891 PSO ENAR GHPL 78 3 71 Total 151 ‐ ‐ 29.410 ‐23.741 11.Bodies Sindh/Bal.660 Total 14.710 160 26 3.488 230.810 38.010 NTDC/PEPCO KANUPP TAPAL Gul Ahmed Energy SSGCL PSO/Other Fed/Prov.996 120.Energy Liberty Power Government of Pakistan GDS Govt.064 1. Consumers Total PEPCO KESC FATA Provincial/Fed.710 79.570 4.Govt.980 12.233 36 20.492 465 89 52 189 published by Accountancy (www.Ltd KESC(Pirkoh Gas Co.160 2.pk) .Karachi (CDGK) KW & SB 3. 894 2005‐06 2.587 7.Economic Survey 2009‐10 ENAR PARCO Bosicor OGDCL Gas Fon Total ‐ 683 0 70 ‐ 10.064 2004‐05 3.894 2007‐08 5.567 Total ‐ 10.939 Source: CF Wing. Pakistan’s coal generally ranks from lignite to sub‐bituminous.081 3.12 million tonnes in 2007‐08 to 3.987 4.652 3.822 4. After witnessing a decline of 17.871 7. This improvement owes to increased import of coal during the period as indigenous production of coal witnessed a decline 6.000 1.703 103. share of coal imports in overall availability of coal.9 percent of total coal in the country has been consumed by the brick kilns industry whereas 39.603 77 25.095 4.275 6. Due to price differential between coal and furnace oil.6 percent consumed by cement industry during the period of July‐March 2009‐10.044 504.124 10. Operational coal mines decreased production by 15 percent from 4.814 7.642 PPL KESC Total 7.312 4. the total production of coal has increased by 10.789 3.704 5.49 million tonnes in 2008‐09.643 7.accountancy.0 percent in 2008‐09.328 4. Table 13. including 175 billion tonnes identified at Thar coalfields in Sindh province.600 1.4 percent and 35.578 3. Finance Division 13. As a result.711 7.540 8.931 KW&SB Federal Ministries Total GRAND TOTAL 8. About 58.714 2006‐07 4.6: Production of Coal (000 tonnes) Year Imports Production Total 2000‐01 950 3.3‐d Coal Pakistan has coal resources estimated at over 185 billion tonnes.045 2001‐02 1.567 PEPCO SSGCL SNGPL PRL Total 9.814 231 400.0 percent during July‐March 2009‐10 over the corresponding period last year (see Table 13.111 2008‐09 4.409 2002‐03 1. Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan 190 published by Accountancy (www. The coal consumption shares of brick kilns and power sectors decreased by 2.8 percent respectively during July‐March 2009‐10 against the same period last year.738 8.pk) .390 July‐March 2008‐09 3.890 2003‐04 2.044 8.251 3.9 percent during current fiscal year.822 2009‐10 (e) 3.5 percent during the period under review.6). increased from 62.931 Total ‐ 25.307 4. almost the whole cement industry has been switched over to coal from furnace oil.com.304 e: Estimated Source: M/o Petroleum Natural Resource.843 4.2 percent in July‐March 2008‐09 to 67. During July‐March 2009‐10.5 65. The average production of natural gas during July‐March 2009‐10 was 4.0 2.Energy 13.98 410.93 32.02 ‐48. Company wise total natural gas production is presented in Table 13.96 ‐0.9 percent. production crude oil has increased by 2.531.643 (60 percent) barrels produced per day respectively in the same period last year.28 126.9 102.29 25.74 2.4‐a Crude Oil The balance recoverable reserves of crude oil in the country as on January 1st 2010 have been estimated at 303.92 10.986.47 32.0 340. showing a decrease of 1.11 2.9 percent from northern region whereas productions decrease in southern region by 5.888 (40 percent) barrels and 39.584.accountancy.635.001.52 ‐5. During the period under review. As on January 1st 2010.00 1240.56 percent.83 24.4 70.49 July‐March Change (%) 2009‐10 27.9 percent oil production decreased in the country.659 (42 percent) barrels per day were produced in northern region and 37.49 637. Natural gas is used in general industry to prepare consumer items. showing an increase of 1.7 ‐ ‐100.7 532. the balance recoverable natural gas reserves have been estimated at 28.24 66.14 ‐1.09 39. In the form of CNG.20 ‐14.17 2. 27.9 4.15 9.53 4.654.94 179.05 4.06 64.531 barrels per day during the corresponding period of last year.263.33 trillion cubic feet.64 6.76 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) as against 3.844.4 37.05 9.079.385.586 (58 percent) barrels per day in southern region.246 barrels per day as against 66.74 8.643.2 percent as compared to same period’s overall 1.3 4.095. to produce cement and to generate electricity.2 21.96 39. The average crude oil production during July‐March 2009‐10 was 65.17 146.888. Energy Production 13.com.24 2.839.78 3.93 384.393.212.245.963.68 228.20 197.63 million barrels.520.517.351.7 2.36 ‐ 38.720.8 3.56 65. it is used in transport sector and most importantly to manufacture fertilizer to boost the agricultural sector.659.048.4‐b Natural Gas The importance of natural gas to the country has been increasing rapidly.69 ‐1.64 July‐March 2008‐09 26.586.683.48 137.01 3.87 ‐11.25 386.426. 191 published by Accountancy (www. The company wise detail of production of crude oil during July‐March. Table 13.716.56 66. as against 26.6 12.559.8.43 401. Currently 28 private and public sector companies are engaged in oil and gas exploration & production activities.326.48 2.64 15.7.672.949.32 15.86 180.9 Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources 13.59 ‐ 34.70 24.4 15.3 411.pk) .4. 2009‐10 and corresponding period of the last fiscal year is as given in Table 13.53 (mmcfd) during the corresponding period of last year.7: Production of Crude Oil (BPOD) Region Northern Region Dewan OGDCL OPII POL PPL MOL Southern Region OGDCL BP (Pakistan) PPL BHP OMV ENI OPII MGCL Petronas Total: 2008‐09 26. Accordingly. In addition.15 494.58 810.33 38.43 244.26 5.61 54.81 812.com.0 million vehicles are using CNG in the country.61 ‐87.53 July‐March Change (%) 2009‐10 524.66 222.986.13 ‐6.14 25.98 13.31 28.07 920.36 416. LPG supplies have gradually increased.7 percent of the country’s total energy supply mix.55 ‐4.11 467. The corner stone of LPG Policy is to ensure enhanced availability of LPG at a competitive price to the end consumer. LPG marketing companies have imported around 62. Pakistan Mashal LNG Project (PMLP) was conceived to cater for the energy need of the country as envisioned in the 25 year National Energy Security Plan and identified in the Energy Gap Coverage Strategy.58 149.39 434. The main objective to enhance the use of LPG is to stop deforestation in the areas where the supply of natural gas is technically not viable.1 ‐5. vehicles are being converted to CNG and approximately 2.86 July‐March 2008‐09 435.06 246.001.45 3.048.8: Production of Natural Gas (mmcfd) Region 2008‐09 BHP ENI Dewan MGCL OGDCL OMV OPII POL PPL Tullow PEL BP Petronas MOL Total: 446.70 Billion.76 1.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 13.17 12.19 ‐8. The number of CNG Stations is ever increasing with an increase in the vehicle conversion rate resultantly there are about 3.3 MT of LPG during July‐March.8 24.3 4.56 Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources (i) Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) contributes about 0. 2009‐10.32 5.2 135.22 439. Pakistan at present is the largest CNG user country in the world.09 7.20 16. (ii) Compressed Natural Gas (CNG): In an effort to reduce dependency on other fuels as well as to improve the environment.24 30. With an investment of over Rs.88 794.65 420.95 933. PMLP is to be set‐up on an integrated basis whereby a private sector project developer will manage the 192 published by Accountancy (www.14 464.99 ‐2.920.12 1.6 40.11 29.07 24.12 ‐60.45 469.pk) .54 ‐86. (iii) Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG): The Government is encouraging LNG import by the private sector.01 473.116 established CNG Stations operational in the country.accountancy.99 62.15 4.11 4.56 16.69 30.35 9. As a result of government’s investor friendly policies.53 10.4 63. Due to existing price differential between CNG & Petrol. the Government has recently approved the project of “Private‐Public Partnership Based Environment Friendly Public Transport System for Major Urban Centers of Pakistan” which is being actively pursued with the provincial governments leading to gradual phase out of diesel operated intra‐city urban transport to achieve import substitution.38 872. the use of CNG in vehicles is being encouraged.99 15.11 20. Table 13. 41 30 24 ‐20.555 57.4 Total 19.9: Drilling Activities (Achievements) (No.5 million tonnes per annum LNG.399 56.accountancy.0 Thermal 4.5* ‐1.955 MW during the period under review. Furthermore.7 1.0 9.8* 4.1 * : Share in WAPDA system Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan & PEPCO 193 published by Accountancy (www.2* 6.80 million has so far been made in the current financial year in the upstream petroleum sector.0 4 KESC 1.3 0.780 100. and delivery of 500 MMCFD re‐ gasified LNG to the SSGC’s system in Karachi. With the share of 31.1 3 Nuclear 462 2.46 Private Sector 56 40 34 ‐15.9 provide the details of drilling activities of the public and private sector companies. construction and operation of an onshore LNG receiving terminal.6 7.10).5* 0. installed capacity of WAPDA declined by 0.5 Power Sector Total installed generation capacity witnessed an increase of 2.955.5 Hydel 6.00 i) Exploratory 12 7 8 14.9 11. 14.5 percent during July‐March 2009‐10.00 iii) Exploratory 15 10 10 0.29 ii)Appraisal/Dev 18 13 8 ‐38. including 16 wells in the public sector and 34 in the private sector as against 60 in the same period last year registering a decrease of 16.pk) .Energy entire supply chain including procurement and shipping of 3. On the other hand. of Wells) July‐March July‐March Sector 2008‐09 Change (%) 2008‐09 2009‐10 Public Sector (OGDCL) 30 20 16 ‐20.555 57.7 2.910.1 2 IPPs 5.3 462 2. Table 13.0 2.10: Total Installed Generation Capacity (MW) Installed Installed S.00 Total: 86 60 50 ‐16.67 Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources 13.0 percent growth in corresponding period last year (see Table 13.67 percent. private sector witnessed the prominent growth of 7. Mashal (Phase‐I) will be based on Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU).com.No Power Company Capacity Share (%) Capacity Share (%) Change 2008‐09 2009‐10 1 WAPDA 11.844 42.1 percent during 2009‐10 against the 1.0 9.899 42. engaged in the exploration and development of wells.374 31.0 20.6 percent in total installed capacity during 2009‐10.00 iv) Appraisal/Dev.454 57. altogether 50 wells have been drilled. the installed capacity of KESC stood at 1.1 percent in its installed capacity during the period under review.954 30.1 6.5 ‐0.190 100.4‐c Drilling Activities During July‐March 2009‐10. with achievement during July‐ March 2009‐10 and corresponding period last year. Table 13. Total investment of $ 888. Briefly. To encourage the hydel and coal based power projects in the country. Accordingly. Furthermore. MS Rs. Out of 11.05 percent. the consumer prices are being notified by OGRA on monthly basis from February. HOBC Rs.5‐a Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) OGRA has been mandated to fix prices of petroleum products in March. NEPRA issued twenty seven tariff determinations and 169 tariff adjustments in respect of generation and distribution companies.8. There is 55‐MW of isolated generation capacity in Pasni & Panjgoor areas.844 MW is owned by Ex‐WAPDA GENCos.5‐b National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority is exclusively responsible for regulating the provision of electric power services.14. cost of gas is linked with international prices of crude/fuel oil per Gas Pricing Agreements (GPAs) executed between the gas producer companies and Government of Pakistan.678 MW of thermal power. local ex‐depot prices vary in line with the international prices. as notified by Ministry of Petroleum & National Resources (MPNR) from time to time Plus General sales tax at the rate of 16 .6. 325 by PAEC and rest by IPPs.678 MW.0/liter and LDO Rs.4 MW. cases/applications of five wind energy projects with a cumulative capacity of 200 MW for grant of generation licenses were also processed. NEPRA has processed ten applications for the grant of generation licenses.Economic Survey 2009‐10 13. The hydropower capacity accounts for 35. 13.accountancy. including thermal and hydel power plants with a cumulative capacity of 311. computed per approved formula and subsequent modifications made from time to time Plus Inland Freight Equalization Margin (IFEM) as determined by OGRA Plus 4. The Federal Government has fixed petroleum levy (PL) from July.0/liter. 4. 3.0 percent distribution margin and 5. 2006.0 percent of depot price on the amount included all above elements payable under the Sales Tax law. under the said price formula the ex‐depot sale prices are being computed as: Ex‐refinery import parity price.0/ liter. Moreover. 135 MW by rental.0/liter. 194 published by Accountancy (www.com.555 MW and thermal 11. during the period July‐March 2009‐10. the authority has allowed 17 percent IRR to hydel and indigenous coal and 16 percent to imported coal power projects as against the 15 percent IRR for oil and gas based thermal power projects. The local prices have been linked with the developments in the international oil market.5‐c WAPDA The installed capacity of PEPCO system is 18.95 percent and thermal 64. 2009. The PL rates on various products are as follows: HSD Rs. Furthermore. During the period July ‐March 2009‐10. In addition to these thermal and hydel power projects.0/liter.10. NEPRA has processed the tariff petition in respect of 80 MW Co‐ generation power project based on bagasse & imported coal. Supply Sources of Electricity: 13.pk) . During the period under review.233 MW as of March 2010 with hydro 6. KERO Rs.0 percent dealer commission subject to minimum of USD 45 and maximum of USD 80 of Arab Light crude oil per barrel Plus petroleum levy. 2009. 475 19.269 84.895 57.255 255 269 12 13 18.271 250 2009‐10 16.226 2.12: Consumers by Economic Groups (Thousands) Year Domestic Commercial Industrial 2006‐07 14.229 242 2008‐09 15. Moreover. Moreover. the electricity generation has started to grow positively during current fiscal year 2009‐10.646 66 67 Total 87. iii).accountancy.0 percent decline in July‐March 2008‐09.377 61.482 2.5 percent during July‐March 2009‐10 against the 4.101 33 Total generation includes purchase from IPPs and imports Thermal 55. The growth in number of consumers increased by 4.665 34 2009‐10 21. Electricity Generation Electricity generation from the hydro and thermal source has witnessed an increase of 5.837 86. Growth in Consumers The number of consumers has been increasing due to expansion of electric network to villages and other areas. the longer term analysis of group wise consumers exhibits that the share of domestic consumer remained the highest with more than 80.653 43. The composition of electricity generation suggests the stagnation in shares of hydro and thermal sources in the electricity generation with share of thermal remained larger than of the hydro source (see Table 13.11: Electricity Generation by WAPDA (GWh) Year Hydro Share (%) 2006‐07 31.12).667 33 2008‐09 27.152 233 2007‐08 15. after growing negatively since 2007‐08.602 56.6 percent growth during the current fiscal year July‐March 2009‐10 compared to 5.11). Table 13. Table 13.942 36 2007‐08 28. In order to ensure uninterrupted and stable power supply to the consumers as well as integrity of the grid supply system.0 percent of total number of consumers in the respective years (see Table 13.987 17.257 250 July‐March 2008‐09 15.pk) .318 64. the augmentation of the transmission network is a continuous process.354 2.763 33 July‐March 2008‐09 20.747 Source: PEPCO ii).2 percent rise in same period last year. new transmission lines/substations are being envisaged. the length of transmission line was 4748 ckM for 500‐kV & 7318‐ckM for 220‐kV level at the end of June 2008. Whereas. Power Transmission The length of transmission lines was 5078 ckM for 500‐kV and 7325 ckM for 220‐kV level at the end of June 2009.416 2.955 18.300 Source: PEPCO 195 published by Accountancy (www.342 260 Agriculture 236 245 255 Others 11 11 11 Total 16.com.614 Share (%) 64 67 67 40.Energy i). In addition to the various on‐going secondary transmission lines and grid‐ stations program.687 2. 90 4.566 2009‐10 9.01 4.92 14. Other measures such as renovation.36 26. the village electrification growth rate during July‐March 2009‐10 increased by 10.897 137.765 by 30th June 2009 to 147.68 7.92 Traction 0.01 0. rehabilitation.50 2009‐10 42.038 v).0 percent over the corresponding period last year Table 13.765 Growth (%) 14 9 8 10 Source: PEPCO 133. Electricity Consumption by Economic Group The consumption of electricity by economic group identifies domestic sector as largest user of electricity in Pakistan.21 6. 196 Table 13. the consumption share of industrial and domestic groups witnessed a decline of 5. Furthermore.13) over the 5.32 0.01 0.1 percent and 0.038 by the end of March 2010.90 4.84 5. As a result.pk) .20 13.com.1 July‐March 2008‐09 19.00 0. Furthermore.44 24.45 23.50 7. Keeping in view of these losses.55 26. Power Losses Transmission and distribution (T&D) losses as percent of net system energy has remained more or less stagnant between 21 percent to 25 percent from 2000‐01 to 2008‐09.59 0. the NTDC and DISCOs have invoked various technical and administrative measures to improve operational and managerial efficiency to reduce power losses. during July‐March 2009‐10.463 147.57 Bulk Supply 4.6 * T&D = Transmission and Distribution Source: PEPCO published by Accountancy (www. Supply to KESC and Agriculture during the period under review.3 2002‐03 24. Table 13.4 2009‐10 19.203 2007‐08 10.868 July‐March 2008‐09 5.4 2005‐06 22.273 Progressive Total 117.56 13.14).30 0. the number of electrified villages has increased from 137.00 6.15.0 percent (see Table 13.01 0.51 2008‐09 42.00 12.7 percent rise during same period last year.09 12.Economic Survey 2009‐10 iv).14: Electricity Consumption by Economic Groups (% Share) Comm‐ Agri‐ Public Year Domestic Industrial ercial culture Lighting 2006‐07 43.03 0.accountancy.27 6.4 2007‐08 21. T&D losses has witnessed an increase of 1.53 July‐March 2008‐09 42.01 Supply to KESC 7.47 2007‐08 43.20 6. Table 13.40 25. While.94 Source: PEPCO vi).15: WAPDA T&D Losses as % of Net System Energy Year T&D Losses (%)* 2000‐01 24. the significant increase in the consumption shares has been witnessed in the groups of Public Lighting.56 6. More recently.1 percent during July‐March 2009‐10 over the same period last year (see Table 13.15 6.456 127.3 2008‐09 21.13: Village Electrification (In Number) Year Addition During the Year 2006‐07 14.441 2008‐09 9.Village Electrification The village electrification program is an integral part of the total power sector development program.02 0.12 7. 044.166 MW are expected to be commissioned in the fiscal years of 2009‐10 and 2010‐11.3 ‐5.4 45. vii) Power Development Program To improve the supply conditions of power in the country. LTD AGGREKO (PROV.1 21.585.555.060 2015‐16 1.597 2017‐18 2.8 7. Total units available to the KESC’s system exhibit an increase of 5.837 Million units (kWh) during same period last year thereby showing a decline of 5.4 1.929.) ENGRO Total Units Available for Distribution Unit Sold Trans.9 6.596 Total 17.426 2014‐15 1.793.4 4.348.0 5.0 2.0 (Units in Million kWh) Change (%) 44.504 Million units (kWh) against 5.6 316.accountancy.5 Source: KESC 197 published by Accountancy (www.966 2011‐12 1. 14.17).301 Source: PEPCO During the current fiscal year July‐March 2009‐10.3 3.955.955 MW.5‐d Karachi Electric Supply Company Limited (KESC) Table 13.6 percent during July‐March 2009‐10 against the same period last year (see Table 13.16: Future generation Projects PEPCO System Year Annual Capacity Planned (MW) 2009‐10 1.8 55.7 413.459.9 306. & Dist.357 2012‐13 2.2 10.5 5.5 12.955.4 ‐7.459 MW.200 2010‐11 2.8 5.17: KESC Operating Results S. KESC’s own generation stood at 5.910.301 MW (see Table 13.352.2 18.3 10.9 246.7 percent during the period.0 441.3 3.766.Energy capacitor installation and strengthening the distribution system network are a continuous process for controlling wastage of power. the installed capacity of KESC’s various generating stations remained at 1. During July‐March 2009‐10.9 2. Losses Installed Capacity (MW) Peak Demand July‐March (2009‐09) July‐March (2009‐10) 286.2 68.9 111.2 71.8 60.0 99. PEPCO is working on various power generation projects having different expected dates of completion starting from current fiscal year 2009‐ 10 to year 2017‐18 with total generation capacity of 17. No 1 2 3 4 5 6 Description POWER PURCHASE KANUPP PASMIC TAPAL GULAHMED WAPDA ANOUD POWER DHA COGEN INTL.1 3.1 93.16).839. Table 13.163. the power projects having the capacity of 4.959 2016‐17 2.140 2013‐14 1.3 384.6 12.0 4. INDUS.8 1.6 5. against the peak demand of 2.pk) .9 410.0 2.com.4 4.2 63. Within this period.0 17.4 ‐15.1 85. 800 MW nuclear power capacity by the year 2030 with increasing share of indigenization. raising its lifetime generation to 12. Coal. C‐1. Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (K‐1) and Chashma Nuclear Power Plant unit‐1 (C‐1) are in operation. while construction of a third plant. K‐1 generated 456.18 : Annual Expected Capacity (IPPs) Year (MW) Projects already commissioned 586 2010 2. Chashma Nuclear Power Plant Unit‐2 (C‐2). K‐1. Power purchase by the KESC increased by 17. the following IPPs have been established in 2009‐10 and other projects are under construction and will soon be delivering much needed megawatts to the national grid to minimize the demand‐supply gap: - Table 13. 13. Presently. 13. Gas and Hydel) power generation projects with a cumulative capacity of 10. Pakistan Atomic Energy has been assigned the task of installing 8.82 billion kWh. has been in commercial operation since 1971. In this respect. a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) type plant with a gross capacity of 325 MWe.9 percent during the first nine months of the current fiscal year.845 216 MW Engro Power Project 214 MW Atlas Power Limited 13. 198 published by Accountancy (www. after completing its designed life of 30‐years is operating on extended life of 15 years. The share of domestic consumer in the KESC’s units’ sale to Karachi consumers remained at 41. Furthermore. a CANDU type plant. the transmission and distribution losses of KESC posted an increase of 5.5‐g Alternate Source of Energy Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) processes all alternative and renewable energy projects in the Public Sector and the Private Sector projects in the power sector.70 percent) and Commercial (10.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Moreover. technical facilities have already been established and human resource development institutes are being upgraded and expanded. has been in commercial operation since September 2000.94 million kWh of electricity during July‐March 2009‐10.5‐f Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) PPIB is currently processing forty four (44) multiple fuel (Oil. C‐1 generated 2063. The construction and installation activities of C‐2 are in progress as per schedule. raising its lifetime generation to 19.pk) . The C‐2 is expected to be operational by 2011.accountancy. K‐1.94 million kWh of electricity during the period of July‐March 2009‐10.845 MW (see table 13. two nuclear power plants.80 percent).806 2011‐12 672 2013 501 2014 612 2015 2.46 billion kWh.90 percent during the July‐March 2009‐10 followed by Industrial (34. is in progress.com.292 2016 888 2017 2.488 Total 10.18) which are expected to be commissioned from year 2010 to 2017.8 percent during the period. construction and operation of nuclear power plants.5‐e Nuclear Energy Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) is responsible for planning. The program was designed to create awareness of solar water heating technology and to build the consumer confidence on the product through a number of incentives to buyers that includes money back guarantee. (ii) Biodiesel AEDB through a consultative process identified the barriers to biodiesel feedstock cultivation in Pakistan. The cost of these eight projects is estimated at US $ 139. Government of Punjab issued LOIs to 10 private investors for establishment of small hydel power project with a cumulative capacity of 142 MW at different location of Punjab. 199 published by Accountancy (www. and is taking actions to remove these barriers. AEDB is currently facilitating twenty (20) projects having a capacity of 50 MW each.5 million.000 tons of Biodiesel per annum. Feasibility studies for 50 MW wind power projects each have been completed by 2 IPPs taking the total to 14 completed feasibility studies. The cultivation has now risen from around 2 acres in 2005 to more than 650 acres in 2009. Furthermore. Companies have been shortlisted for issuance of RFPs on basis of Expressions of Interest (EOI) submitted by them.pk) . AEDB has initiated a project for carrying out detailed studies for biomass / waste‐to‐energy projects in 20 cities of Pakistan. AEDB is also working for the deployment of 20. Experimental cultivation of biodiesel feedstock on scientific basis has also been started. (iv) Small/Mini/Micro Hydro AEDB is actively working to install 103 micro hydro power plants at Chitral and other places in Gilgit Baltistan.Energy (i) Mega Wind Power Projects AEDB issued 4 Letters of Intent (LOI) for wind power projects. 3 for 50 MW and one for 2.0 million is for Productive Use of Renewable Energy (PURE).com. which are at different stages of development. Eight micro/mini/small hydel power projects have been initiated under the Renewable Energy Development Sector Investment Program of Asian Development Bank (ADB). Some local manufacturers are also playing an important role in promotion of this technology. (iii) Biomass/Waste‐To‐Energy AEDB has signed a contract with a foreign firm for carrying out a feasibility study for generating up to 10 MW of electricity from Municipal Solid Waste in Karachi. (v) Solar More than thirty two vendors are currently importing solar water heaters and marketing them all over the country.4 MW. The study is currently underway and would lead to establish a 10 MW Waste‐to‐Energy power plant in Karachi.000 solar water hearers in Gilgit Baltistan.The total cost of the project is US$ 19.accountancy. One company has installed 06 MW in the first phase of their 50 MW project. AEDB recently launched a Consumer Confidence Building Program for the promotion of Solar Water Heaters in the country.5 million out of which US $ 1. Pakistan’s first ever commercial biodiesel production facility has been setup in Karachi by the private sector. This biodiesel refinery has a capacity of producing 18. One IPP has signed a contract with international turbine manufacturer for the supply of equipment for their project. 187 1994-95 97.902.493.098 47 111.738 507.076 6.130 7.646.225 Total 486.063 5.846 38.269 15.961 1.273 6.893 6.215.071.369.892 404.767 6.062 9.582 3.968 11.387 2003-04 231.475 (Contd.747 8.671.788 582.175 4.103 27.889.580.605.831 4.116 24.521 1.107. 1991-92 613.647.595.750 1.807 2006-07 106.300 264.858 226.053 50.398 142.601.618 6.501 1.916 2.156.905 12.275.042 2.506 8.395 15.042 183.431 2.423 151.570.233 403.631 6.845 2009-10 P 68.604 872.110 1995-96 596.113 35.736 2008-09 214.742 8.891.600 1.443 268.851 335.960.686 2005-06 128.763 309.777 6.837.539 5.223.840 5.581 13. Gas (mm cft) Fiscal Year Households Commercial Cement 1991-92 70.157.175 193.451.050 2009-10 P 184.384.738 2.182 134.712 8.193 69.988 1999-00 139.459 1.250 490 121.139 (a) : HSD consumption in agricultural sector is not available separately and is included under transport sector.414.418 1.595 346.419 17.783 3.269 5.924.266 Jul-Mar 2008-09 75.483 147.536 7.480 6. Agricultural sector represents LDO only Source : Oil Company Advisory Committee Total 10.533 31.898 16.286 223.626.383 2005-06 171.503 4.375 14.653.466 7.650 .914 1993-94 82.271.308 357.081 15.125 65.445 2003-04 155.488 18.766 433.416.752 167.103 16.635 355.225.332 969.318 718.173 1.364.525 28.024.051.856 417.057 11.864.011.656 21.684 16.866 7.769 546.199 12. P : Provisional @ : (CNG) Compressed Natural Gas Fertilizer 101.611.397 (Contd.501 2008-09 97.139.493 119.218.115.487.131 18.) TABLE 13.186 22.416 3.409 198.264 1.474 177.851 1.com.152 175.825 233.278 250.761 1992-93 75.981 97.631 43 104.899 20.080 183.053.889 249.681.988 372.405 16.075 1.933 310.pk) .133 1999-00 477.559 325.260 14.1 COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2.064 6.911.966 16.637 13.973 21.700 959.443 278.318 2007-08 120.977 2001-02 144.529 1994-95 585.364 281.552 2.991 31 100.739.068 824.088 16.767.197 7.115 1993-94 589.730 1995-96 110.651 1.600 162.228 1992-93 622.935 287.426 138.624.232 7.960.135.694 227.452.686 2007-08 204.833 8.706 1.725 71.418 323.421.305 Jul-Mar 2008-09 171.672 429.853 197.: Not available.269.628 144.776 3.398 491.795 1997-98 498.050 2000-01 450.080.821 17.799 607.890 635.191 109.385 1.793 8.446 322.500 18.750 246.784 380.101 768.496.403 8.307.048 254.320 193.191 13.694 181.636 469.045 16.669 376.482 7.654 2002-03 282.960 1.785.065 268.192 7.141.263 2004-05 192.868 597.) published by Accountancy (www.202 153 110.982.227.756 1998-99 492.981.TABLE 13.accountancy.875 26.464.711 2004-05 172.860 293.507 193.954 13.068 196.461 15.172 244.508 22.221.977 6.124 357.542.558 2000-01 140.305.081.896 8.619.109 29.960 7.516 307.092 1998-99 131.018.740.697 150.031 2.741 13.455 6.031 7.351 9.525.846 13.393 177.795 6.418 367.161.305 2.589 180.847.682 200.433 931.526 550.034 8.019.181 6.365 358 115.647.604.775.891 712.885 306.949 2.063 2002-03 153.107 186.751 17.003 88.893 186.968 12.043 1.229 7.063 201. Oil/Petroleum (tonnes) Fiscal AgriculYear Households Industry ture (a) Transport Power Other Govt.083.255 314.982 358.569 1996-97 115.326 11.082.718 1997-98 134.035 33.661 25 102.212 1.239 10.419 463.995 225.254 1996-97 509.158.937.374 150.631 511.140 Transport Industry (CNG) @ 95.369 164.148 1.525 281.400 6.499 749.538 44.958 266.172.525 276.611 185.167 15.416 7.018 319.1 COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 1.994 1.893 6.174 24.984 179.505 244.768 2.631 4.176 2001-02 334.335 2006-07 185.581 316.977 7.113 14.600 56.306.100 Power 193.764 12.514 141.517 81.350 190.563 72.783 14.479.236 149.110. 221.9 2.653 .3 1.289 5.998.accountancy.381 39.8 2.472 415 2008-09 5 32.086 390 1997-98 16 18.800.624 3.0 0.586 48.210 2.760.8 3.9 55.9 6. 415.7 2. 77.552. 346.3 3.7 3.774 14.327 67.5 2.490 3.614 0.6 .1 9.620 224 1999-00 15 21.252 19.Street Year tion hold cial trial tural Light 1991-92 29 11.607 212 2002-03 10 23.937 387 1998-99 15 19.9 1.9 112.851 3.818.563 6. Electricity (Gwh) Fiscal Trac.988 305 2005-06 13 30.2 180.591 3.000.363 3.622 52.772 298 1994-95 22 15. 40.767 3.044.924 213 2001-02 11 23.6 2.9 .714.500 4.373 4.949 353 2006-07 12 33.112 1.277 6.349 4.216.227 364 .8 164..448 41.126.591 6.4 .7 3.5 2. 46.878 36.544 13.389.585 2.894. 2.2 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources published by Accountancy (www.5 4.043 5.100.202 4.635 297 1993-94 27 14.809.493 37.893.181 6.9 3.458 2.143 12.170 2.363 21.1 COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 3.. 398.2 184.342.5 3.8 .2 162.3 1. 348.451.0 3.044.4 2.TABLE 13.577.533.080 18.6 3..726 7.016 244 2003-04 9 25. 351.pk) .098..720 4.0 249.0 3.0 7..750 4..7 3.4 3.335 5.650 3. ..191.962 12.656 57.491 61.8 4.7 6.8 3.110.Indus Agricul.289.601 4.5 1.1 2.0 5.440 3.8 5. 1.1 10.House.0 .607.183 6.408.580.8 7.277.757 2.6 203.0 2.333 Total 33.6 3.6 4.9 3.0 4.1 1.822.158.9 3.078.409 12.064.3 4.637 5.2 3. 1992-93 27 13.116 2.795 430 Jul-Mar 2008-09 4 23.589.0 1.7 3.0 1.334 12. 43.241 11.9 4.906.0 2.297 6.3 3.061 5.251 324 1995-96 20 17..218 16.5 3.704 5.330 8.7 3.133 14.786 12.8 3.455 2.7 4.6 1.7 2.623 12.0 .296 45..528 6.603 72.366 6.487.712 73.807.669 262 2004-05 12 27.6 8.982 7.689 17.3 .573 3.585 50.8 .501 307 2009-10 e 2 24.914 44.637.729 8.333 13.829 14.274.730 19.737 42.572 20.035 4.266.696 378 1996-97 18 17..176 387 2007-08 8 33.847 .080 1.781 2.400 70.2 149.2 3.com.1 1.001.889.0 1.750 2..282 5.8 110.. 205.540 239 2000-01 13 22..4 54.116 2.167.8 .9 .8 3.951 15.987 2.304.394 2..382 3.547 3.141 5.371 Household 6.042.461.803 7.066 8.765 2.235.837.846 3.868 4.8 Total 3.052.572 43. Coal (000 metric tonne) Power Brick Kilns Cement 39.911.4 3.4 3.186.9 3.Commer.643 3. : not available e : Electricity consumption for AJK is estimated on the basis of actual six months data Other Govt.5 7. 961 5.com.843 4.454.751 68.545 624.754 9.974 7.405 75.750 50.081 3.402 65.275 3.342 857.434 5.230 17.925 6.900 85.accountancy.553 960 3.600 e 1.912 25.275 6.398 11.798 19.420 19.100 12.936 60.505 21.619 Production (000 tonnes) 5.770 20.168 950 3.895 30.TABLE 13.151 2009-10 (e) 38.874 5.159 910 3.546 23.096 3.855 19.818 15.138 3.534 1.064 10.652 3.858 5.092.675 28.440 48.860 91.969 14.715 583.063 28.625 61.195 52.658 15.104 65.512 23.270 29.384 19.586 11.319 12.413.000 e 1.433 923.025 9.738 Electricity Installed Generation Capacity (Gwh)(b) (MW)(a) 9.799 17.694 24.330 9.578 3.407 21.543 32.384 95.740 10.016 22.582 p Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources published by Accountancy (www.545 56.028 9.312 2.337 9.229 628.115 24.662 17.460.615 64.640 53.878 10.314 10.763 699.575 60.737 10.699 22.400.750 1.495 5.474 10.871 4.094 8.828 Coal ProducImports tion (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) 1.650 65.084 9.266 1.029 9.399 17.679 1.080 3.369 10.043 1.946 59.161 24.437 5.458 57.758 992.910 8.704 p 19.612 7.461 957 3.115 8.257 19.2 COMMERCIAL ENERGY SUPPLIES Oil Crude Local Oil Crude Imports Extraction (000 barrels) (000 barrels) 30.450 19.822 p 19.603 62.009 8.084 51.840 + : Million cubic feet (a) : MW: Mega Watt (b) : Gwh: Giga Watt Hour 18.069 3.709 744.095 1.033 Fiscal Year 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Jul-Mar 2008-09 44.638 840 3.938 20.580 697.877 Gas (mcf) + 550.789 3.685 3.026 1.588 21.pk) .498 17.676 6.841 5.395 52.843 7.119 63.826 20.953 1.986 32.117 72.498 10.202.109.386 19.589 1.360 e : estimated p : Provisional Petroleum Products Imports (000 tonnes) 5.793 p 7.044 21.307 4.309 1.328 1.099 994 3.170 5.094 3.694 5.344.137 10.124 4.774 98.942 818.125 62.926 11.982 23.251 3.682 80.786 45.194 1.738 93.581 1.211 666.987 4.643 5.420 19.858 31.469 29.587 2.023 8. 826 20.456 30.342 p 462 2.867 17.479 31.707 6.436 46.972 12.449 4.826 22.862 6.618 Imported (Gwh) 0.154 462 918 195 39.669 12.3 COMMERCIAL ENERGY SUPPLIES Fiscal Year Hydroelectric (Hydel) Installed Generation Capacity (Gwh) b (MW) a 2.283 12.826 22.com.696 39.669 10.921 10.060 4.499 30.499 25.176 8.826 23.480 28.944 6.354 5.TABLE 13.941 5.741 22.481 27.626 21.137 30.006 33.481 23.051 22.740 1.855 37.843 62.496 26.726 19.795 2.902 26.351 6.858 4.700 42.671 6.526 12.330 18.288 4.36 73 109 146 171 199 227 39.077 1.285 51.pk) .299 52.877 12.632 p 2009-10 (e) 6.707 p (a) : MW: Mega Watt p : Provisional Source: (b) : Gwh: Giga Watt Hour e : electricity generation estimates based on six months actual data Installed Capacity (MW) a 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 462 462 462 462 462 462 462 462 462 Nuclear Generation (Gwh) b 385 418 582 497 511 483 346 375 284 399 1.051 18.423 57.826 22.436 4.257 9.858 4.535 12.194 5.288 3.169 48.823 27.343 3.174 12.481 20.064 12.057 6.591 12.521 185 Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources published by Accountancy (www.707 7.953 6.826 19.112 4.926 12.760 2.375 5.162 12.214 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Jul-Mar 2008-09 6.accountancy.206 4.478 63.286 51.784 Electricity Thermal Installed Generation Capacity (Gwh) b (MW) a 5.291 1.478 63.122 12.484 2.647 4.997 2.489 60.898 18. com.00 Time of Day (TOD) .88 3. For full details.100 Units per month 2.Agri.40 352.59 c) Time of Use .Residential Colonies Attached to Industrial Premises I.64 301 .00 5. Charges/month: Single & 3 Phase B.55 TOD Off-Peak C-2(a) at 11/33-kV load upto 5000kW 355.RESIDENTIAL Upto 50 Units per month 1.32 3.00 5.01 B-2 TOD (Off-Peak) 364.PUBLIC LIGHTENING 7.Peak Rs 75/.44 3.96 C-2 (b) load upto 5000 kW -peak 355.SCARP less than 20kW 5.03 3.COMMERCIAL a) For Sanctioned Load upto 20 KW i) For First 100 units 7.Agri.00 4.03 4.29 B-4 TOD (Off-Peak) 340.55 3.93 B-2 TOD (Peak) 364.27 365.15 Above 1000 Units per month 7.Railway Traction J. Charges/month B-1.Peak 365 3.44 2.41 365.Load 21-500kW 365.28 87.65 101 .68 C-1 (b) 400-V. WAPDA may be consulted.Peak 365.89 B-3 11/33kV TOD -Peak 352.4 SCHEDULE OF ELECTRICITY TARIFFS OF DISCO Effective from 24-02-2007 TARIFF CATEGORY Fixed Charges (Rs/KW) Variable Charges (RS/KW) A-1 GENERAL SUPPLY TARIFF.00 4.32 5.00 3.95 259.300 Units per month 3.40 Time of Day (TOD) Off-Peak D-AGRICULTURAL TUBE WELL TARIFFS D-19(a) .pk) .32 3.45 Off-Peak C-3 supply at 66kV & above 340. 500 H.31 3.Punjab & Sindh 87. Charges: single & 3/ Phase A-2 GENERAL SUPPLY TARIFF .90 Time of Day (TOD) Peak 340.00 365.1000 Units per month 6.00 6. T/Wells.17 4.INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY TARIFFS B-1 upto 40 KW (400 Volts) 5.Special Contracts J-1 AJ&K Time of use peak Off Peak J-2 Rawat Lab. published by Accountancy (www.40 FOR CONSUMPTION EXCEEDING 50 UNITS 1 .41 D-2.00 5.55 Off-Peak E-TEMPORARY SUPPLY TARIFFS E-1(i) Residential Supply E-1(ii) Commercial Supply E-2 Industrial Supply Rs 50.Off-Peak Rs 75/.17 5.accountancy.& 150/Min.TABLE 13. Charges per day E-1( i & ii) 125% of Industrial Tariff F.00 3.18 4. Peak 262. B-2.55 Time of Use -Off. 500/Min.15 Min. T/Wells NWFP & Blochistan 3.55 Time of Day (TOD) . Note: 1) The above figures cover some portion of the tariffs schedule.48 ii) Above 100 units 7.62 B-2 Load >40 to 500 KW at 400 Volts.59 Minimum charges per month per Kw Rs.00 C-1 (c) TOD Opt.55 6. B-3 & B-4 C-SINGLE POINT BULK SUPPLY TARIFFS C-1 (a) 400/230 Volts Load upto 20 kW 267. 364. Min.87 D-2.31 B-3 11/33kV TOD Off-Peak B-4 66/132kV TOD-Peak 340.18 3.00 D-1(b) TOD SCARP & Agri>20kW Peak 3.& 350/Min.SEASONAL INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY G.86 340.00 6.61 b) For Sanctioned Load exceeding 20 KW 267.00 6. 500/125% of relevant industrial tariff F.99 7.45 4.97 8.73 3.38 7.99 4.00 6.08 301 .59 3.13 3.Punjab & Sindh 90 3.47 7.53 Above 1000 Units per month 7. Peak 315 7.38 9.86 7.08 3. T/Wells NWFP & Blochistan D-1(b) TOD SCARP & Agri>20kW Peak 305 7.94 6.80 10.63 4.86 7.40 1.04 7.38 5.88 C-3 supply at 66kV & above 295 5.88 3.88 3.00 6.73 3. Charges/month: Single & 3 Phase B.53 6.07 6.84 4.45 4.24 7.00 4.08 4.73 I.73 3.11 6. 50.com.13 7.88 3.63 Rs.& 360/Min.73 3.28 5.48 E-1(ii) Commercial Supply 8.08 101 .16 7.73 9.99 7.00 4.28 5.73 3.48 Minimum charges per month per Kw 500 H.73 7.79 7.53 7.88 5.94 8.24 7.99 b) For Sanctioned Load exceeding 20 KW 365 4.73 D-2.23 B-4 TOD (Off-Peak) 395 3.70 3.84 4. 2000.28 7.73 3.COMMERCIAL a) For Sanctioned Load upto 20 KW i) For First 100 units 7.73 3.59 2.08 7.72 6.97 6.27 7.73 3.28 Rs 75/.63 3.28 4.99 3.19 8.PUBLIC LIGHTENING 8.88 7.99 7.86 7.79 7.28 4.17 5.13 7.68 5.04 7.63 3.59 9.28 5.88 5.70 11.04 7.63 3.84 3.000 & 500.97 4.40 1.28 7.17 8.88 3.Load 21-500kW 315 5.19 3.08 3.Special Contracts J-1 AJ& K 355 2.08 4.28 4.24 7.63 7.13 7.73 9. T/Wells.68 5.28 3.17 5.88 B-4 66/132kV TOD-Peak 295 6.22 7.1000 Units per month 6.SEASONAL INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY G.38 5. For full details. B-3 &B-4 C-SINGLE POINT BULK SUPPLY TARIFFS C-1 (a) 400/230 Volts Load upto 20 kW 6.08 6.28 4.53 7.63 3.28 9.88 6.13 E-TEMPORARY SUPPLY TARIFFS E-1(i) Residential Supply 7.86 7.RESIDENTIAL Upto 50 Units per month 1.22 8.59 3.28 4.28 4.45 4.59 9.28 4.90 7.53 7.73 3.63 B-2 TOD (Peak) 315 7.24 7.09 10.SCARP less than 20kW 5.53 6.63 6.73 Time of Day (TOD) .08 4.97 5.86 7.10 7.20 6.97 9.68 9.00 4.28 4.28 5.20 3.59 3.08 6.28 5. Charges per day E-1( i & ii) Rs.24 7.59 Time of use peak 295 7.88 3. Min.97 J-2 Rawat Lab.43 Note: 1) The above figures cover some portion of the tariffs schedule.40 FOR CONSUMPTION EXCEEDING 50 UNITS 1 .100 Units per month 3.97 4.48 J.99 6.13 7.73 3.08 4.59 8. B-2.13 7.97 7.& 150/Min.59 3.88 3.73 Time of Use -Off.08 3.68 9.pk) .13 3.97 7.08 4.73 Off-Peak 305 3.Agri.63 4.63 3.45 4.59 7.79 7.97 c) Time of Use .63 6.23 Time of Day (TOD) Off-Peak 295 3.84 4.17 6.70 11.40 1.63 4.68 5.08 3.Peak 315 7.28 4.28 5.54 7.28 B-3 11/33kV TOD -Peak 305 6.Residential Colonies Attached to Industrial Premises 7.28 3. 315 4.53 6.13 9. 350.00 B-2 Load >40 to 500 KW at 400 Volts.48 Off-Peak 305 3.22 7.53 6.08 4.63 3.28 8.79 7.28 7.74 6.97 4.40 1.28 C-2(a) at 11/33-kV load upto 5000kW 305 5.88 6.28 4.63 6.45 4.73 3.94 6. WAPDA may be consulted.13 3.48 B-3 11/33kV TOD Off-Peak 305 3.63 6.38 5.63 6.98 Min.28 7.95 3.28 4.63 3.17 6.34 3.17 5.63 9.73 TOD Off-Peak 315 4.20 published by Accountancy (www.28 Time of Day (TOD) Peak 295 6.INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY TARIFFS B-1 upto 40 KW (400 Volts) 6.38 C-2 (b) load upto 5000 kW -peak 305 6.22 7.19 12.300 Units per month 4.73 B-2 TOD (Off-Peak) 315 4.08 6.13 7.17 6.59 3.88 9.4 SCHEDULE OF ELECTRICITY TARIFFS OF DISCO TARIFF CATEGORY Fixed Charges Rs/KW EFFECTIVE FROM 01-03-2008 Variable Charges Rs/KWh LESCO GEPCO FESCO MEPCO QESCO IESCO A-1 GENERAL SUPPLY TARIFF.28 4.88 5.04 7.22 7.97 4.99 4.28 7.34 3.99 3.73 90 3.95 3.20 3.00 6. 5.28 4.99 8.63 D-AGRICULTURAL TUBE WELL TARIFFS D-19(a) .86 7.70 11.TABLE 13. 500.04 7.28 9.99 5.59 8.79 7.28 4.88 5.Peak 315 4.40 1.79 7.08 4.68 5.97 9.28 4.19 3.79 7.28 6.28 9.99 7.54 7.24 7.79 7.99 6.00 6.79 9.99 4.72 6.44 7.00 6.63 4.68 7.48 D-2.28 4.19 8.38 5.accountancy.34 8.000 respectively Min. PESCO HESCO 1.99 4.99 4.63 7.17 6.63 9.84 4.79 9.88 3.28 5.38 9.40 1.13 3.99 4.63 6. Charges/month B-1.59 2.74 6.99 4.88 8.22 7.Railway Traction 6.Peak 315 7.13 7.22 Off Peak 295 3.88 E-2 Industrial Supply 6.59 3.86 7.47 6.97 6.88 3.79 7.40 3.63 6.79 Time of Day (TOD) .68 C-1 (c) TOD Opt. Charges: single & 3/ Phase A-2 GENERAL SUPPLY TARIFF .Agri.Off-Peak 315 4.17 C-1 (b) 400-V.86 ii) Above 100 units 7.28 Rs 75/.63 3.45 3. 51 C-1(c) load > 5 & upto 500 KW Off Peak 315 5.72 C-3(a) 66 kV & above.28 Minimum Monthly Charges for: S/ Phase Rs.PUBLIC LIGHTING TARIFF 9.65 B-2(b) 6 .000/.Off Peak 315 3.00 A-1(b) For Sanctioned Load exceeding 5 KW Time of Use (TOU) .03 v.Off Peak 5.SEASONAL SUPPLY TARIFF G .com.42 D-AGRICULTURE TUBE WELL TARIFFS D-1(a) Scarp less than 5 KW 6. 500.61 D-1(b) TOU for SCARP & Agri. load upto 5 KW 7.91 C-3(b) 66 kV & above.12 A-2(c) Time of Use . 75/.40 For Consumption Exceeding 50 Units ii.29 iii.Off Peak 5. 301 . . Charges/month for B-1 Rs.62 Minimum Monthly Charges Rs.SPECIAL CONTRACTS K(1) AJ&K 295 3.100 Units 3.TEMPORARY SUPPLY TARIFFS E-1(i) Residential Supply 10.65 Time of use .50 E-2 Industrial Supply 7.accountancy.52 C-2(b) 11/33 kV upto load 5000 KW Peak 305 8.500 KW (at 400 volts) 315 5.37 D-2 Agricultural Tube Wells 90 4.42 E.TABLE 13.4 SCHEDULE OF ELECTRICITY TARIFFS Effective from Feb. loads > 5000 KW Peak 295 7.500 KW TOU Off Peak 315 5.00 315 7.50 Minimum Monthly charges for E1 (i & ii) Rs. 50.& B-4 Rs.04 B-4 For All Loads (at 66. 132 kv & above) . B-2 Rs.pk) .500 KW TOU Peak 315 8.88 C-1(c) load > 5 & upto 500 KW Peak 315 8.000/C-BULK SUPPLY TARIFFS C-1(a) For supply at 400/230 volts.Peak TOU for SCARP & Agri. 350/B. 500/OTHERS TARIFFS F . 2000/-.Peak 9.34 B-3 For All Loads upto 5000 KW (at 11/33kv) .Peak 305 8.COMMERCIAL A-2(a) For Sanctioned Load upto 5 KW 315 9. 175/. loads > 5000 KW Off Peak 295 4. 350/-.72 K(1) AJ&K TOU . 500/.40 C-3(b) 66 kV & above.17 K(1) AJ&K TOU .RAILWAYS Traction 7.700 Units 8. 150/A-2 GENERAL SUPPLY TARIFF . loads > 5000 KW 295 6.Domestic Schedule-II A-1(a) For Sanctioned Load upto 5 KW i.38 B-2(a) Load 6 .20 C-2(a) 11/33 kV upto load 5000 KW 305 6.71 B-2(b) 6 . Upto 50 Units 1.per KW month of lamp capacity installed H-RESIDENTIAL COLONIES OF INDUSTRIES 8.21 C-2(b) 11/33 kV upto load 5000 KW Off Peak 305 4.62 Minimum Monthly Charges for: S/ Phase Rs.21 Time of Use (TOU) .Off Peak 305 4.& 3/Phase Rs.50 K .Off Peak 295 4.46 C-1(b) Load above 5 KW & upto 500 KW 315 6.96 iv.58 published by Accountancy (www.Off Peak 295 4.& 3/Phase Rs.00 E-1(ii) Commercial Supply 10.49 Fixed Min.INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY TARIFFS B-1 Upto 5 KW (400/230 Volts) 7. 50/day subject to a minimum of Rs.28 B-3 For All Loads upto 5000 KW (at 11/33kv) .Peak 295 8. 1 . 101-300 Units 4.Peak 295 8.Peak 315 8.79 B-4 For All Loads (at 66. B-3 Rs. 2009 (FOR ALL DISCOs) Tariff Category Fixed Charges (Rs/Kwh) Variable Charges (Rs/Kwh) A-1 General Supply Tariff . . 132 kv & above) .82 Rawat Lab 6.65 I . Above 700 Units 10.81 A-2(b) For Sanctioned Load exceeding 5 KW 315 6. per KW month of lamp capacity installed H-RESIDENTIAL COLONIES OF INDUSTRIES 9.17 B-2(b) TOU Off Peak 315 5.TABLE 13. 2000/-.Off .70 C-2(b) At 11/33 kV load incl.00 C-3(a) At 66 kV & above and S/load > 5000 295 6. 500.per connection per month A-2 GENERAL SUPPLY TARIFF .29 C-1(c) TOU Opt.11 Rawat Lab 6.INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY TARIFFS B-1 Upto 5 KW (400/230 Volts) 7.load 5 .Peak 5. load upto 5 KW 7.42 E.TEMPORARY SUPPLY TARIFFS E-1(i) Residential Supply 10.17 A-2(c) Time of use .00 A-1(b) Time of Day (TOD) .50 B-2(a) Load 6 . Charges/month for B-1 Rs.40 For Consumption Exceeding 50 Units ii.000/C-SINGLE POINT FOR PURCHASE IN BULK BY A DISTRIBUTION LICENSEE C-1(a) At 400/230 volts.SPECIAL CONTRACT TARIFFS K(1) AJ&K 295 3. 350/.Peak 295 8.20 Minimum Monthly Charges Rs.& B-4 Rs.Peak 305 8.Peak 305 5. 301 .60 Minimum Monthly Charges for: S/ Phase Rs.75 D-2 Agricultural Tube Wells 90 4.com.Peak 315 5.per connection per month B.700 Units 8.Peak 295 9.24 K(1) AJ&K TOU .500 KW 315 7.Off .76 A-1(b) Time of Day (TOD) . 75/.26 iv.100 Units 3.84 B-3 For All Loads upto 5000 KW (at 11/33kv) TOU .COMMERCIAL A-2(a) For Sanctioned Load upto 5 KW 10. B-2 Rs.Off Peak 315 5.Off Peak 305 5.Peak 9. 101-300 Units 5.38 C-3(b) At 66 kV & above and S/load > 5000 .51 C-2(a) At 11/33 kV load incl. 2009 (FOR ALL DISCOs) Tariff Category Fixed Charges (Rs/Kwh) Variable Charges (Rs/Kwh) A-1 GENERAL SUPPLY TARIFF .& 3/Phase Rs.SEASONAL SUPPLY TARIFF G .Peak 295 4. 132 kv & above) TOU .Peak 305 8.91 C-1(b) At 400 Volts .RAILWAYS Traction 7. Upto 50 Units 1.69 D-AGRICULTURE SUPPLY TARIFFS D-1(a) Scarp less than 5 KW 6.17 I . Above 700 Units 10.Peak 315 9. 5000 KW .RESIDENTIAL Schedule-II i.Off .96 Minimum Monthly Charges for: S/ Phase Rs. 132 kv & above) TOU .02 C-1(c) TOU Opt.Off Peak 295 4. 175/. Peak 315 9.pk) . 5000 KW 305 6.49 iii. > 5KW .91 C-2(b) At 11/33 kV load incl.PUBLIC LIGHTING TARIFF 10.Peak 295 8.49 A-2(c) Time of Use . 50/day subject to a minimum of Rs. 5000 KW .76 Fixed Min.51 v.& 3/Phase Rs.05 B-2(b) TOU Peak 315 9.00 E-1(ii) Commercial Supply 10. 500/.61 TOU for SCARP & Agri.40 A-2(b) Normal 315 6.Off Peak 315 3. B-3 Rs.50 E-2 Industrial Supply 7.08 B-4 For All Loads (at 66.Peak 315 7.00 D-1(b) TOU for SCARP & Agri.97 published by Accountancy (www.36 K(1) AJ&K TOU .000/. 350/-.60 B-3 For All Loads upto 5000 KW (at 11/33kv) TOU .500 KW (at 400 volts) 315 6. 1 .50 K .Off Peak 295 5.52 B-4 For All Loads (at 66. 500/OTHERS TARIFFS 125% of the relavent industrial supply F . Off .78 C-3(b) At 66 kV & above and S/load > 5000 . > 5 KW.50 Minimum Monthly charges for E1 (i & ii) Rs.4 SCHEDULE OF ELECTRICITY TARIFFS Effective from 1st Oct. 50. 150/.accountancy. 81 published by Accountancy (www. 132 kv & above) TOU . 150/.Peak 295 9.90 B-3 All Loads upto 5000 KW (at 11/33kv) TOU .06 E.& B-4 Rs. 5000 KW Off . 1 . Upto 50 Units 1.86 C-1(b) For Load 5 & upto 500 KW 315 8. 500/.27 A-2(c) For load > 5 KW TOU .per connection per month A-2 GENERAL SUPPLY TARIFF . 2000/-.Off Peak 6.78 B-2(b) TOU Peak 315 10.accountancy. 2010 (FOR ALL DISCOs) Tariff Category Fixed Charges (Rs/Kwh) Variable Charges (Rs/Kwh) A-1 GENERAL SUPPLY TARIFF . Off .76 K(1) AJ&K TOU .Off Peak 295 5.93 A-1(b) For load > 5 KW TOU .pk) .27 A-2(c) For load > 5 KW TOU .03 D-1(b) TOU SCARP & Agri.27 Minimum Monthly Charges for: S/ Phase Rs.per KW month of lamp capacity installed H-RESIDENTIAL COLONIES OF INDUSTRIES 10. 75/.75 C-2(b) At 11/33 kV load incl.39 C-3(b) At 66 kV & above S/load > 5000 Off .60 C-3(a) For supply at 66 kV & above and S/load > 5000 KW 295 7. 101-300 Units 5. 50.com.TEMPORARY SUPPLY TARIFFS E-1(i) Residential Supply 10.74 C-2(b) At 11/33 kV load incl. 5000 KW Peak 305 9. 175/. 50/day subject to a minimum of Rs.76 B-2(a) Load 6 .25 D-AGRICULTURE SUPPLY TARRIFS D-1(a) Scarp less than 5 KW 7.65 A-2(b) for load > 5 KW 315 7.per connection per month B.500 KW (at 400 volts) 315 6.TABLE 13.Off Peak 315 6.& 3/Phase Rs.Peak 200 4.90 K .27 B-3 All Loads upto 5000 KW (at 11/33kv) TOU.Peak 295 10.50 Minimum Monthly charges for E1 (i & ii) Rs. B-3 Rs.17 C-1(c) load > 5 KW & upto 500 KW TOU Opt.Peak 315 10. 301 . 500/OTHERS TARIFFS 125% of the relevant industrial supply F .89 iv.55 B-4 All Loads (at 66.000/C-SINGLE POINT FOR PURCHASE IN BULK BY A DISTRIBUTION LICENSEE For supply at 400/230 volts C-1(a) For load upto 5 KW 8.& 3/Phase Rs.SPECIAL CONTRACT TARIFFS K(1) AJ&K 295 3.72 Rawat Lab 7.RAILWAYS Traction 8.PUBLIC LIGHTING TARIFF 11.00 E-1(ii) Commercial Supply 10.56 D-2 Agricultural Tube Wells 90 4.Peak 295 5. 5000 KW 305 7.100 Units 3. Peak 315 10.4 SCHEDULE OF ELECTRICITY TARIFFS Effective from 1st Jan.35 K(1) AJ&K TOU . 350/.Off Peak 295 5. > 5 Off .87 A-1(b) For load > 5 KW TOU .Off Peak 305 5.60 C-3(b) At 66 kV & above and S/load > 5000 Peak 295 9. 350/-. B-2 Rs. Charges/month for B-1 Rs.66 For Consumption Exceeding 50 Units ii.52 v.COMMERCIAL A-2(a) For Sanctioned Load upto 5 KW 11.Peak 10.27 I .Peak 305 9.Peak 315 6.Peak 305 5.SEASONAL SUPPLY TARIFF G .42 Minimum Monthly Charges Rs.67 Minimum Monthly Charges for: S/ Phase Rs.27 B-2(b) TOU Off Peak 315 6. > 5 KW .RESIDENTIAL Schedule-II A-1(a) For Sanctioned Load upto 5 KW i.Peak 200 9.75 D-1(b) TOU SCARP & Agri.10 C-1(c) For load > 5 KW TOU Opt.50 E-2 Industrial Supply 7.69 B-4 All Loads (at 66.000/. 500.700 Units 9. Above 700 Units 11. 132 kv & above) TOU .33 Fixed Min.17 C-2(a) For Supply at 11/33 KV load upto & incl.91 iii.INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY TARIFFS B-1 Upto 5 KW (400/230 Volts) 8. 63 36.88 53.75 33.57 35.23 37.30 43.03 36.64 35.57 31.73 32.70 64.88 53.23 37.73 32.57 31.73 32.5 OIL SALE PRICES Date Ex-Depot Sale Price Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 16-01-2007 01-02-2007 16-02-2007 01-03-2007 16-03-2007 Rs/Ltrs 01-04-2007 53.70 64.73 32.88 53.5 OIL SALE PRICES Date Ex-Depot Sale Price Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 1-05-2007 16-05-2007 01-06-2007 10-06-2007 16-06-2007 Rs/Ltrs 01-07-2007 53.90 38.06 40.73 32.70 64.93 36.88 53.57 35.TABLE 13.57 36.73 32.73 32.53 33.78 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) TABLE 13.91 42.73 32.29 42.88 53.00 41.88 53.52 30.88 35.57 35.01 42.70 64.70 64.73 32.23 37.07 40.86 42.70 64.73 32.23 37.70 64.pk) .57 35.96 36.com.22 33.73 32.57 35.57 35.70 64.88 53.23 37.02 36.48 36.23 37.66 31.65 33.70 64.23 37.57 35.91 41.87 38.89 37.70 64.58 37.88 53.23 37.57 35.23 37.23 37.80 35.88 53.accountancy.11 38.57 35.30 35.70 64.88 53.89 41.23 37.73 32.70 64.88 35.57 35.22 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) published by Accountancy (www.23 37.46 38.23 42.49 41. com.86 42.55 41.57 35.23 37.73 32.23 37.23 37.61 53.57 35.88 35.43 46.88 53.70 64.73 32.73 32.70 64.88 53.70 64.88 53.pk) .57 35.38 39.73 32.73 32.70 64.73 32.88 53.88 35.40 43.37 35.26 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) TABLE 13.70 64.50 42.67 39.23 37.5 OIL SALE PRICES Date Ex-Depot Sale Price Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 16-07-2007 01-08-2007 16-08-2007 01-09-2007 16-09-2007 Rs/Ltrs 01-10-2007 53.TABLE 13.23 37.70 64.88 53.73 32.42 52.57 35.32 44.70 64.57 35.5 OIL SALE PRICES Date Ex-Depot Sale Price Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 16-10-2007 01-11-2007 16-11-2007 02-12-2007 16-12-2007 Rs/Ltrs 01-01-2008 53.73 32.88 53.49 41.57 35.54 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) published by Accountancy (www.accountancy.70 64.57 41.57 35.19 40.70 64.73 32.34 38.57 35.23 37.58 51.57 35.73 32.88 53.23 37.23 37.57 38.85 44.73 32.94 44.68 50.53 51.23 37.23 37.73 32.88 53.88 53.12 44.44 43.89 49.21 46.15 43.23 37.89 48.70 64.13 49.42 55.69 56.53 40.23 37.68 50.89 47.36 37.96 42.73 54.83 46.88 53.70 64.70 64. 62 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) published by Accountancy (www.33 72.13 84.81 77.88 53.77 68.05 62.13 44.13 44.73 55.72 51.70 64.39 73.5 OIL SALE PRICES Date Ex-Depot Sale Price Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 17-01-2008 01-02-2008 17-02-2008 01-03-2008 17-03-2008 Rs/Ltrs 01-04-2008 53.59 41.66 57.70 64.70 73.23 37.5 OIL SALE PRICES Date Ex-Depot Sale Price Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 18-04-2008 01-05-2008 16-05-2008 01-06-2008 21-06-2008 Rs/Ltrs 29-06-2008 65.06 53.59 41.81 80.44 50.46 58.13 44.77 68.44 47.77 62.77 75.81 74.73 32.77 68.59 41.44 50.73 32.69 65.31 67.02 52.13 44.14 49.07 41.TABLE 13.02 79.59 83.13 44.69 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) TABLE 13.59 49.81 80.83 52.07 55.88 62.37 41.77 68.47 53.88 53.05 92.53 59.57 35.57 38.44 50.23 36.95 70.81 74.57 35.70 64.29 76.23 37.07 81.23 37.73 32.13 44.77 35.accountancy.45 59.13 41.com.81 80.32 65.13 38.59 41.25 84.59 41.51 55.17 65.13 38.85 41.79 62.59 49.23 88.39 48.77 56.11 80.81 80.44 50.40 61.98 47.88 58.70 64.pk) .90 80.06 54. 37 64.75 30.66 54.14 60.77 33.08 86.08 57.73 55.31 72.00 51.45 89.34 72.57 42.87 68.14 48.00 61.75 50.50 58.79 85.64 56.66 96.10 90.6 79.26 62.44 76.56 74.08 76.TABLE 13.accountancy.87 68.55 45.08 57.69 88.66 72.66 96.67 51.05 58.37 64.61 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) published by Accountancy (www.08 66.87 61.73 39.14 49.66 96.11 77.37 64.50 58.34 71.54 36.64 56.pk) .08 81.22 55.66 72.13 78.00 82.66 96.00 61.00 56.66 96.66 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) TABLE 13.57 68.35 83.5 OIL SALE PRICES Date Ex-Depot Sale Price Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 01-10-2008 16-10-2008 01-11-2008 16-11-2008 01-12-2008 Rs/Ltrs 16-12-2008 81.37 64.85 86.36 86.00 69.36 72.87 68.66 96.66 96.08 86.08 61.66 96.64 56.40 64.08 81.87 57.5 OIL SALE PRICES Date Ex-Depot Sale Price Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 01-07-2008 21-07-2008 01-08-2008 16-08-2008 01-09-2008 Rs/Ltrs 16-09-2008 75.50 58.14 60.87 68.10 37.59 80.64 56.08 49.96 42.50 61.00 51.14 48.14 53.66 81.14 60.07 75.90 48.75 93.87 57.14 60.01 59.com.08 86. 14 48.24 31.14 48.60 34.00 51.00 51.08 57.66 72.08 56.08 57.5 OIL SALE PRICES Date Ex-Depot Sale Price Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 01-01-2009 01-02-2009 01-03-2009 01-04-2009 01-05-2009 Rs/Ltrs 22-05-2009 57.60 34.71 48.83 36.87 57.87 57.00 51.71 48.62 31.00 51.66 72.08 57.66 72.24 31.06 39.14 48.66 72.89 35.87 57.00 35.45 33.66 72.66 72.89 35.87 57.87 57.08 57.14 48.09 33.87 57.TABLE 13.14 48.87 57.38 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) TABLE 13.08 57.87 55.5 OIL SALE PRICES Date Ex-Depot Sale Price Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 01-06-2009 01-07-2009 08-07-2009 09-07-2009 01-08-2009 Rs/Ltrs 01-09-2009 57.38 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) published by Accountancy (www.21 70.38 37.62 31.40 39.66 72.87 57.54 38.09 33.54 38.38 37.06 39.17 31.50 35.45 33.com.66 72.14 48.28 51.83 36.00 51.17 36.08 57.14 48.00 35.04 37.00 51.28 51.66 72.08 56.08 57.14 48.00 51.14 48.14 48.pk) .87 57.84 32.00 51.17 36.00 51.17 31.84 32.21 70.66 72.accountancy.08 57.06 39.50 35.87 55.40 39.00 51.04 37.06 39.87 57. 97 57.5 OIL SALE PRICES Date Ex-Depot Sale Price Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 01-10-2009 01-11-2009 Rs/Ltrs 01-12-2009 61.87 64.TABLE 13.37 52.52 57.97 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) published by Accountancy (www.24 45.03 48.52 60.97 62.accountancy.87 64.63 70.09 50.75 45.00 80.02 51.59 61.63 75.59 66.pk) .22 46.63 75.79 54.68 48.79 54.26 44.com. 57 62.94 (b) Pak Saudi 61.15 166.88 251.09 182.77 36.09 182.09 POWER Stations SNGPL & SSGCL'S SYSTEM Liberty Power Ltd.09 197.80 190.31 73.77 36.88 168./ Month 66.09 197.78 227.pk) .02 190.77 36.77 36. 166.85 171.68 61.52 78.77 234.68 61.42 111.2004 2-2-2005 DOMESTIC (Slab) i Upto 1.54 163.25 192.26 182.68 66.77 36.45 213.77 36.77 36.90 190.78 167.06 178.26 182.02 193./ Month 161.68 161.11 168.68 61.25 178.57 62.com.32 222.64 M cu.01 v Upto 10.95 67.88 168.86 67.06 217.52 ii For Fuel Generation 166.51 KANDHKOT FIELD (866 BTU) 160.42 111.ft.94 FFC 61.37 102.98 190.68 158.77 to 3.32 222.88 172.77 36.08 171.31 72.12.37 104.11 Cement 222.40 66.68 66.40 66.26 182.15 163. SYSTEM i For Feed Stock ii For Power Generation 72.78 209.19 (Contd.68 61.99 73.03 GAS DIRECTLY SOLD TO WAPDA'S GUDDU POWER STATION SUI FIELD (917 BTU) 145.88 168.09 197.88 168.09 182.ft.77 36.ft.18 166.57 62.31 72.14 158./ Month 100.08 185.95 73./ Month 201.76 262.88 (a) Engro Chemical 13.52 78.88 221.18 168.77 M cu.94 166.77 36.ft.77 36.68 158.41 MARI FIELD (754 BTU) 156.99 73.94 72.18 168.11 190.08 171.06 213.18 168.88 168.80 222.88 168.89 235.88 172.20 to 17.85 vii All over 17. PAFL 36.F.08 185.16 163.26 182.75 M cu.02 190.88 168.88 231.77 36.31 72./ Month 217.88 172.68 61.68 158.78 209.61 iii Upto 3.26 73.80 190.ft.) Billing/pricing system changed from Rs.88 204. Per thousand cubic feet to Rs.88 168.40 66.55 to 7.73 102.90 175.ft.f.06 213.40 71.95 73. Per million btu w.88 172.09 CNG Station 166.94 72.42 120.18 168.68 61.88 168.78 163.95 ii Upto 1.57 67.38 78.19 SARA/SURI FIELD 156. 1-1-2002 published by Accountancy (www.95 69.94 182.14 158.20 M cu.41 175.32 222.15 163.32 209./ Month vi Upto 4.68 158.64 to 14.09 Captive Power Independent Power Projects FERTILIZER SNGPL'S SYSTEM i For Feed Stock Pak-America Fertilizer Ltd.96 iv Upto 7.09 Dawood and Pak Arab FOR MARI GAS CO.94 72.TABLE 13.26 182.1 to 10.09 61.88 168.75 COMMERCIAL 186.accountancy.09 197.94 72.95 67.55 M cu.68 66.88 168.37 102.85 171.78 163.78 General Industry 166.88 172.e.88 168.11 Pakistan Steel 182.32 231.09 182.C Jordan 36.99 Pak china/ Hazara 66.77 Dawood Hercules/ Pak Arab 62.68 61.77 F.33 235.1 M cu.82 204.68 161.09 13.77 36.77 36.6 GAS SALE PRICES (Rs/mcft) Category 20-08-2002 25-10-2002 21-03-2002 20-08-2008 1-7-2003 1-7-2004 1.09 182. / Month 204.87 238.64 M cu.95 80.52 91.98 443.91 264.55 305.56 240.68 GAS DIRECTLY SOLD TO WAPDA'S GUDDU POWER STATION SUI FIELD (917 BTU) KANDHKOT FIELD (866 BTU) 201.1 M cu.38 251.77 36.06 82.17 COMMERCIAL 234.60 339.61 328.77 36.ft.92 407.42 248.75 M cu.34 88.86 230./ Month 265.e.34 309.96 236.30 310.67 730.29 239.34 97.54 339.ft.03 FERTILIZER i For Feed Stock (i)For Feed Stock Pak.1 to 10.22 94.55 329.07 86.78 264.33 General Industry 208.30 ii Upto 1.f.77 36.87 iv Upto 7.54 349.91 264.87 238.12 337.95 226.10 255.22 90.TABLE 13.03 78.01 208.54 339.55 to 7.43 Cement 240.24 91.22 94.25 467.61 Source : Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan Billing/pricing system changed from Rs.77 36.72 MARI FIELD (754 BTU) SARA/SURI FIELD 195.95 CNG Station 208.06 90.03 82.40 149.56 303.77 102.06 90.62 147./ Month 127.56 240.25 264.67 271.56 240.06 443.20 to 17.07 298.34 337.11 97.85 223.36 388.87 238.07 149.07 82.87 238.41 89.40 156.17 235.55 329.F.PAFL 36.52 91.01 239.77 36.56 Captive Power 208.15 Pakistan Steel 208.77 M cu.77 36.24 83./ Month 259.11 102.92 310.52 91.55 422.01 Dawood Hercules/ Pak Arab 83.23 283.01 313.11 97.15 335. Per thousand cubic feet to Rs.38 251.87 238.38 251.56 POWER Stations SNGPL & SSGCL'S SYSTEM Liberty Power Ltd.38 251.10 332.ft.C Jorden 36.38 291.43 82.77 36.85 223.77 36.91 264.56 303.00 318./ Month 529.03 268. Per million btu w.34 309.22 90.64 to 14.22 90.Americal Fertilizer Ltd.52 445./ Month 78.77 to 3.50 vii All over 17.89 454.06 vi Upto 4.80 393.ft.28 277.55 329.11 97.77 36.98 85.55 M cu.ft.15 305.06 208.38 30-6-2008 01-01-2009 DOMESTIC (Slab) i Upto 1.34 248.05 370.67 428.38 82.com.87 238.95 195.77 F.14 ii For Fuel Generation (ii)For Fuel Generation 88.ft.40 149.22 90.38 78.78 82.79 v Upto 10.77 36.59 306.07 82.06 848.38 251.75 561.47 232.32 427.55 329.91 264.56 240.1-1-2002 published by Accountancy (www.6 GAS SALE PRICES (Rs/mcft) Category 1-7-2005 1-1-2006 1-7-2006 1-2-2007 1-1-2008 73.06 82.77 36.pk) .31 432.96 236.17 iii Upto 3.28 243.43 Independent Power Projects 295.84 162.22 90.20 M cu.52 96. 208.43 Dawood and Pak Arab i For Feed Stock (i)For Feed Stock (a) Engro Chemical FFC ii For Power Generation (ii)For Power Generation 82.54 339.accountancy.22 90. 68 0.15 0.64 4 km/km as shown in Fig 1 14.pk) .07 Fig‐1: Road Density Comparison 0. With W this it will emerge as a competitive economy.62 Road density 3.17 0 23 0. petroleum p on ownerrship and operation of vehicles. researcch. Th he sector alsso contributes to the goveernment reveenues products. culturee and defencce.com. creating c econ nomic opporttunities and communicatio c on links amo ong people. Currentt road density in n Pakistan is 0.0 0.32 1.00 0. This sector gen nerates a largge number off employmen nt opportunities.0 1. Most em merging econo omies being awaare of the strength of thesse services arre transforming their econ nomies towarrds knowledge and communications.08 0.accountancy.5 1.5 1 62 1. Globally transport an nd communiication is ch hanging everry aspect off human lifee. Pakistan is also developing efficient and well inttegrated tran nsport and communicatio c on system.Traansp port and d Com mmuniccatio ons 14 An efficieent transport system conttributes to economic growth by loweering domestiic production n cost through timely t delive ery of raw materials.32km/km2 which is much less eveen from regio onal standard d. integratin ng markets.0 Source : NHA 201 published by Accountancy (www. entertainm ment.0 1.20 0. from trad de to manufacturing.1 3. Road den nsity of any country c is an indicator of the level of prosperity and developm ment.5 3. Governmeent of 2 Pakistan is endeavouring hard to do ouble road deensity to 0.23 0. m enh hancing economies of scaale in the prroduction pro ocess. In order o to keeep pace with h the global environmentt.65 1.62 2.04 1. and d fees through taxes and dutties on production and import of vehicles and parts. In this fashion it also enhance es the compeetitive advanttage of the ecconomy in prroduction of ggoods and thereby promotess trade. education. currentlyy 6 percent off employed laabour force is said to be enggaged with this sector. A com mpetent transsport system will also enco ourage tourissm and foreign investmentt. enhancing itts trade perfo ormance and tthereby attaining sustainaable growth.70 2.5 0. 5 162.8 2005‐06 91. Table 14.543 3.3 2008‐09 83.618 KM by 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) an increase of 13 percent.1. which despite being merely 4% of the overall road network takes 80% of Pakistan’s commercial traffic 14.7 2001‐02 102.595 5. In 1947.000 km in 1947.618 0 Sources : National Transport Research Centre # : The percentage change in low type roads can be negative since most of these roads are being converted to high type roads.1 2007‐08 84.070 1.1 259.1‐1 ROAD NETWORK: Pakistan’s road network is vital for the movement of people and goods and plays an important role in integrating the country.com.117 6. This includes NHA network of around 12. From only around 50.618 kilometres including 179.6 229.7 252. in table 14.060 1.2 2003‐04 97.1‐2 National Highway Authority (NHA) National Highway Authority (NHA) network plays a major role in the all‐weather reliability.9 138. increased to 259.197 1.462 5.021 0.320 ‐4.885 4.484 2.5 2004‐05 95.1: Length of Road (Kilometers) Low Type Total Fiscal Year Length % Change Length % Change 1996‐97 103.827 3. facilitating economic growth and reducing poverty. which were 229.6 144.200 0 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) 80.7 1999‐00 110. the roads now carry over 96% of inland freight and 92% of passenger traffic and are undoubtedly the backbone of Pakistan’s transport sector.5 247. Pakistan has a road network covering 259.841 2.200 0. employment of local workers on the project.478 3.491 ‐4.290 1.8 137. however.595 KM in 1996‐97.132 2.Economic Survey 2009‐10 14.7 2002‐03 98. A sizable and continuous improvement of the high type road network can be observed from 1996‐97 to 2009‐10 (Jul‐ Mar).4 249.527 ‐1.140 0 240.140 ‐2.255 2.340 0.pk) .370 ‐2.4 259. 202 published by Accountancy (www.4 251.373 ‐2.2 175.877 2.530 2. High Type Length % Change 126.5 133.2 1997‐98 107.290 KM of high type roads and 80.328 ‐3. reliance on roads was only 8%.7 148.038 ‐5.7 260.8 240.9 158.038 ‐1. access to new employment centres.352 2.652 4.168 0.1 ROAD TRANSPORT Roads have become the most important segment of transport sector in Pakistan with ever increasing reliance on road transportation.9 172.3 2006‐07 86.9 153. reduced transportation costs and increased access to markets for local produce and products.423 3.2 258. strengthening of local economies.5 259.4 256.943 ‐3.7 167.8 259.accountancy. better access to health care and other social services.3 179.214 0.661 0.9 1998‐99 110. Total roads.2 Graphical representation of high type and low type of roads in Pakistan since 1996‐97 are shown in Fig‐1 14.972 0.000 0.784 ‐2.000 km.000 km.328 KM of low type roads.3 2000‐01 105. Pakistan’s current road network is now more than 260.8 177. Lyari Expressway (SBC) LEP 2.000 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) 2008‐09 2007‐08 2006‐07 2005‐06 2004‐05 2003‐04 2002‐03 2001‐02 2000‐01 60. which the masses in Pakistan so desperately need.com.000 140. Manghopir Interchange (SBC) LEP 4. 41 billion NHA has targeted completion of different projects with a total length of well above 2000 km during 2010 c.000 160. Khanozai‐Muslim Bagh N‐50 11. flyovers & interchanges b.000 100. NHA completed 23 development projects costing Rs. Besides these direct job opportunities. NHA launched 30 new development projects covering a length of almost 1000 km inclusive of a number of bridges. Gwadar‐Pleri‐Jiwani N‐10 6.2. Quetta Western Bypass N‐25 8. as could be appreciated from following facts and Table 14.000 Source :NTRC NHA has performed reasonably well during the current and previous financial years.accountancy.000 80.pk) . Muslim Bagh – Qila Saifullah N‐50 NWFP/GB Km (Cost in M) 6 Completion Feb‐08 11870 Jul‐09 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 1445 Feb‐10 Dec‐09 69 37 23 180m 83 50 50 1996 330 375 921 3023 1169 1713 Oct‐08 Dec‐09 Aug‐08 Jun‐09 Jan‐10 Apr‐09 Sep‐09 6 203 published by Accountancy (www. Sir Shah Suleman – Sohrab Goth (NBC) LEP including Interchanges 3.Transport and Communications Length of Road High Type Low Type 200. Pleri‐Gabd N‐10 7. Table 14. Lakpass Tunnel (with 5km approaches) N‐25 9. the development projects of NHA have indirectly resulted in creation of thousands of jobs. a. Launching of new projects entailed creation of 2500 PC‐I vacancies within NHA of different nomenclature/cadres.2: COMPLETION OF DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS SINCE 2008 Project/Section Route Sindh 1.000 120.000 (Kilometers) 180. Larkana‐Khairpur Bridge (Rive Indus) ‐‐‐ Balochistan 5. Hub – Uthal N‐25 10. 2: COMPLETION OF DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS SINCE 2008 Project/Section Route 12.3.29 36.accountancy. economical and environment friendly mode of transport. Satra Mile – Lower Topa N‐75 National Highway Improvement Program 21. Pakistan Railways was the primary mode of transportation in the country till the seventies. South access road to LRTP N‐45 16.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 14. Throughout world history. the performance and condition of Pakistan 204 published by Accountancy (www. Dargai – Chakdara N‐45 Punjab 17. An effective railway system facilitates commerce and trade. rail traffic has played an important part in the development and economic prosperity of nations. and promotes rural development and national integration while reducing the burden on commuters. Shershah Bridge (River Chenab) N‐70 (with 13 km approaches) 20. Naran – Jalkhad N‐15 13. Pakistan Railways has a definite edge over roads for long haul and mass scale traffic movement both for passenger and freight in addition to providing a safe.35 45.pk) . However. owing primarily to a diversion of already scarce resources towards the expansion of the road network. Zahir Pir – TM Panah (Section‐II) N‐5 18.3 Comparison of Gross toll collection Revenue source (July‐Feb) 2008‐09 Motorways 1332 N‐5 2300 Other Highways 810 Total 4442 (July‐Feb) 2009‐10 1512 3367 1177 6056 Increase 180 1066 367 1613 (Rs in Million) % Changes 13. Lowari Rail Tunnel Project (excavation) N‐45 15. Table 14. Timergrah – Akhagram N‐45 14. reduces transportation cost (monetary and non‐monetary). Baba Farid Bridge (River Sutlej) ‐‐‐ 19.32 Source : NHA 14. Mian Channu – Sahiwal N‐5 23. NHA has been able to increase the toll revenue which is the lifeline for maintenance of NHA network by 36% as shown in Table 14.6 9 25 (Cost in M) 1969 570 5546 245 622 Completion Dec‐08 Oct‐09 Jan‐09 Jun‐09 May‐09 45 ‐‐‐ 1531 913 Jun‐08 Jan‐10 ‐‐‐ 950 Sep‐08 43 2949 Mar‐10 50 46 58 1200 863 789 Jan‐10 Dec‐09 Aug‐09 Source : NHA Operation and maintenance By adopting the principle of awarding toll operation & management contracts on guaranteed revenue basis. Nowshera‐Peshawar N‐5 Km 40 25 8.2 Pakistan Railways An efficient transportation system plays a vital role in the economic development of a country.54 46. Ubauro – Sh Wahan N‐5 22. The government vision for economic growth and poverty reduction requires massive investment and development of infrastructure for sustainable economic growth. Railways are a valuable source of employment while generating large amounts of revenue to the benefit of the economy.com. 178 13.872 3.774 ‐1.236 6.2 23.4 3.2 4.10 2009‐10* 18.7 4.967 ‐10.532 3.1 84. The negative growth trend can be attributed to the recession in the economic growth in the country as well as law and order situation created in the country by the miscreant.95 5.2 116. 2007.9 19.2 percent and 4.336 10.345 5. This rail link could further boost trade relations between the two countries by facilitating the already growing trade with China and operations of Gawadar Sea Port.085 5.8 5.4 2003‐04 222.2 4. However.447 ‐3.2 (Jul‐Mar) *Estimated Source: Ministry of Railways & Ministry of Communications 14.751 5.191 4. Pakistan Railways is undertaking a number of development projects and adopting better policies aimed at modernization of Pakistan Railways.6 101.114 1.980 1.5 25.692 6.A decrease in passenger traffic was seen for the year 2009‐2010 (Jul‐Mar) with a negative growth rate of 7. Table: 14.916 6.246 6. Pakistan Railways has shown improving trend in both passenger and traffic registering an average increase of 3.1 4.270 ‐7.2 ‐ ‐ 5.453 ‐7.2 24. respectively (See Table 14.8 89.5 20. Pakistan Railways is planning to take a series of interlinked initiatives as discussed below.077 2.3 114.com.035 0.3 3. During the last nine years (2000‐2009).779 3. The damaged assets during riots have not been repaired due to reduction in PSDP allocation last year.520 20.6 2005‐06 238. The fall in growth rates for freight traffic during the current financial year has been attributed to the less availability of locomotives for freight traffic because of non procurement of spares due to financial constraint.621 5.9 19.4 Passenger Traffic (Million Passenger Km) Freight Million Ton Km Passenger Traffic (Million) Passenger Freight Million Ton Km Km Fiscal Year Road % Change Rail % Change Road % Change Rail % Change 1996‐97 163. x Pakistan has already completed pre‐feasibility study for establishing a rail link with China.238 5. which will enable it to compete effectively in the fast growing transport sector in Pakistan. responsiveness and efficiency.244 3.327 1.446 3.6 5.pk) .925 ‐13.818 0.3 1997‐98 173.1 percent over the same period of last year.accountancy.306 7.5 18.7 5.15 3.4).702 3.3 110.753 ‐5.7 117. Pakistan Railways is struggling to increase its competitiveness.731 ‐6.495 ‐2.8 1999‐00 196.172 1.857 6.9 107.2 18.2 2002‐03 215.0 percent per annum.261 6.4 2001‐02 209.8 2007‐08 24.607 ‐9.381 0.5 ‐ ‐ 6.783 6.1 95.527 3.3 2008‐09 25.370 5.590 5.2 18.15 percent due to less travelling as a result of deterioration in internal security whereas freight traffic has decreased by 13.7 2004‐05 232.896 ‐4.2‐1 Future Outlook: In order to continue improvements and to consolidate reforms.045 3.1 22.4 2000‐01 208. 205 published by Accountancy (www.5 1998‐99 185.6 4.9 2006‐07 26.Transport and Communications Railways declined and it’s share of inland traffic reduced from 41 percent to 10 percent for passenger and 73 percent to 4 percent for freight traffic.1 108.573 1. Many part of the railway track have been destroyed with immense damage being caused to the rolling stock and stations of Pakistan Railways during riots in December.830 5. 3 PAKISTAN CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY (CAA) Civil Aviation Authority is responsible for the promotion and regulation of Civil Aviation activities and development of infrastructure for safe. x Doubling of track will be completed from Chichawatni to Okara stations during the period under review. shall be manufactured in Pakistan Carriage Factory Islamabad from completely knock down kits during next three years.184 0.5 Table 14. x Another on‐going development project is the doubling of tracks from Khanewal‐Raiwind (246 Km). x Rehabilitation of 400 old coaches is underway with 80 coaches expected to be rehabilitated during the current financial year. Pakistan Railways has finalized loan agreements for various projects for improvement of operation on the system and letter of credit are being established for the following projects:‐ x Procurement/manufacture of 75 diesel electric locomotives (DE Locos).875 ‐3. x 150 Nos. CCA plays an important role in the development of a country’s economy by providing fast and efficient access between different parts of the country as well as different destination around the world. Private participation on this front has been encouraged through concession and incentives for development of airports and airlines to increase the availability of air transport services both domestically and internationally it is important to construct and maintain airports in the country to facilitate economic activity in an increasingly globalize world. coaches has been signed. completely knock down (CKD) wagons received from China will be manufactured in Pakistan Railways workshop in Moghalpura this year against the project for Procurement/Manufacture of 530 high capacity wagons.Economic Survey 2009‐10 x Pakistan Railways has signed contract with Chinese supplier for the maintenance of Chinese locomotives to improve reliability and availability of locomotive. The following major new/existing airports air being constructed by CAA currently.5 2007‐08 19. 206 published by Accountancy (www.9 2006‐07 19. The earnings of Pakistan Railways since 1998‐99 are given in Table 14. x Pakistan Railway is encouraging private sector to bring rolling stock for running of passenger and freight trains by paying track access charges.2 2005‐06 18. x Rehabilitation of signals system damaged during riots.pk) .194 5.1 2008‐09 23.2 2000‐01 11.5 2003‐04 14. adequate.160 16.636 ‐1. 150 Nos.com.3 Source: Ministry of Railways 14. economical and properly coordinate air service in Pakistan.2 2004‐05 18.812 13.027 23.accountancy. x A contract agreement for procurement and manufacturing of 202 Nos.5: Earnings of Pakistan Railways (Rs. out of 500 Nos.938 20.0 2009‐10 (Jul‐Mar) 16. Coaches out of 202 Nos.973 4. efficient.310 ‐‐ 1999‐00 9.889 6. x Procurement/manufacture of 202 high speed modern coaches.7 2001‐02 13.046 9.3 2002‐03 14. Million) Fiscal Year Earning % Change 1998‐99 9. x Replacement of old signaling gear on Lodhran‐Shahdara Bagh Section. of Pakistan also approved execution of the project as a PSDP scheme.pk) . Passenger demand declined by 5. iii) Up gradation of Multan International Airport The facilities including Terminal Building at Multan International Airport are inadequate. Taxiways. etc. 2012. There was some reprieve on fuel bill but the depreciation of Pak Rupee as compare to US$ and financing cost on fleet and non fleet loans severely hurt PIA. passenger demand all over the world declined by 3. Asian Pacific carriers continued to be the hardest hit by the current economic turmoil.Transport and Communications i) New Benazir Bhutto International Airport (NBBIA) at Islamabad The New Benazir Bhutto International Airport (NBBA) will be a state‐of‐the‐art with modular facilities for both domestic and international passengers and cargo capacity to accommodate the projected demands. During the year 2009 PIA increased its overall capacity by 1.3‐1 PAKISTAN INTERNATIONAL AIRLINE (PIA): The airline industry provides services to virtually every segment of the country and plays an integral role in the development of economy. Designing and Supervision of the Project. The Govt. car parking facilities. storm water drainage.7% while its passenger traffic and seat factor witness a drop of 0.2% and 1. The project is planned to be completed by the end of 2012. PIA to some extent. has manage to maintain its passenger traffic during year 2009. M/s NESPAK has been appointed as Consultant for Planning.5 % and it is expected that industry will post US $ 11 billion losses. NAVAIDs. utilities and infrastructure including roads.0% as compare to previous 207 published by Accountancy (www.5 M US$ for this project. The airline industry itself is a major economic force. iv) Expansion of Peshawar International Airport Scheme for the up‐gradation and expansion of existing facilities at Peshawar Airport has been prepared by CAA. ii) New Gwadar International Airport (NGIA) In order to encourage development of Gwadar. mainly due to weak domestic traffic. planned to upgrade the existing infrastructure at the airport for B‐747/B‐777 operations on modern lines to support the 21st century aircraft technology and to meet the operational requirements of next 15‐20 years. power supply systems. According to IATA.6 % and expected losses surged to US $ 3. 14. Govt. Airfield Lighting System. Aprons.4 billion for year 2009. Despite uncertain environment in the country.accountancy. Air Traffic Control Tower. swage treatment plant.com. The facilities planned include Passenger and Cargo Terminal Buildings. global economic recession and a stiff competition from the regional carriers. Number passengers carried on international sectors increased by 1. in terms of both its own operations and its impacts on related industries such as trade and tourism.3 pp respectively over same period last year. CAA has therefore. Although there was some relief on the fuel bill but the passenger and freight demand continued to disappear because of economic recession and airlines faced over capacity. The year 2009 was worst for the airline industry. of Pakistan has approved construction of a new international airport at Gwadar. Runway System. The entire project is planned to be completed by December. Sultanate of Oman has also agreed to provide a grant of 17. 0% 1999‐2000 17.7 million tons during 2008‐09.009 ‐ 2009‐10 Exports 5.6: Cargo Handled at Karachi Port Year Imports % Change 1996‐97 18. PIA reduced its losses by Rs.270 30.5% ‐ Total 23.0% ‐5. showing remarkable increase in all types of cargo handling including bulk.8 billion includes foreign exchange translation loss of Rs.536 % Change 5. The Karachi Port Trust established an annual cargo handling record of over 38.6.732 20.692 25. showing a slight increase of 4.com.609 ‐3.149 ‐6.846 37.1% 7. The consolidate revenues of the Group for the quarter ended December 31.7 billion on US $ dominated fleet loans/lease obligations and finance cost of Rs.6.5.330 1. However.0% 2001‐02 20.5 million tones of cargo have been handled.6. 14.4% 2000‐01 20.4% ‐3.0%‐ ‐2.367 ‐0.2 % as compare to last year.053 22. 2008.684 24. Decline in domestic traffic can be attributed to economic downturn.3% 2002‐03 19.pk) .5% 2003‐04 21.7% 2006‐07 23.6% 4.2 8.515 6.615 32.273 6.365 6.113 5.573 15.8% ‐4. an increase of around 6%. law and order situation in the country and increasing competition from the domestic carriers.193 38.2% 55.Economic Survey 2009‐10 year.5% ‐1.7% ‐3.8 billion during the year 2009 compare to same period last year.318 7.064 17.4% 7.762 25.517 11. making a total of Rs3.6 billion. 20.30.0% 7.833 million (including Rs595 million from PNSC).4% 2008‐09 25.9% 3.4% ‐3. During the first six months of the current fiscal year.3% 14.362 ‐1. compared to last year.918 6. Statistics of cargo handled during last many years are given in Table 14.362 6.570 5. Despite the economic downturn and the situation in country.676 13.882 27.6% July‐Dec 14.133 million from PNSC)for the half‐year under review as against Rs. Whereas on domestic sectors number of passengers carried decreased by 4.8% 2007‐08 25.2 billion. during year 2009.545 (000 Ton) % Change ‐0.8 2004‐05 22.566 million (including Rs 1.517 9.329 ‐8.732 10.697 7.1 percent over last years record cargo handling of 37.4% 20. overall revenue of the airline increased to Rs.1% ‐ Source: KPT b) Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) manages 14 with a total capacity of 649703 metric tones dead weight. Table 14.9% 12.2 million tons.94.735 5. there has been a rise in activity during the first six months of the current fiscal year. The main contribution to the loss of Rs.4% 14.5% 2.8% 1998‐99 18.1% 5.982 26.4 PORTS AND SHIPPING a) Karachi Port Trust: The steady and continuous progress made by KPT has helped boost the national economy.5. 208 published by Accountancy (www.613 5. The reduction in losses was mainly due to reduction in cost and increase in revenues.767 million for the half year ended December 31.813 28. 2009 were Rs 1.114 ‐6.8% 12.9.081 6.7% 2005‐06 25. Break bulk and containers.accountancy.4% 6.1% 2.9% 1997‐98 17.475 22.100 1.3 billion to Rs.1% 2. 841 ‐11 2001‐02 10.967 41 13.238 09 2000‐01 11. PNSC made a net after tax profit of Rs.941 07 13.703 1.922 5. which will have a positive impact on its profitability.accountancy.859 3.502 10 2008‐09 19. c) Gawadar Port The Gawadar Port started its ship handling operations during March 2008 by berthing the first biggest ship ever handled in Pakistan.511 11 2007‐08 21.385 3.8 million tonnes cargo during the first nine months of current financial year.437 37 21.584 % Change 65 52 ‐02 03 36 31 ‐09 20 16 21 02 16 3773 5448 03 44 (000 Tonnes) Total % Change 14. 291 million of last year. d) Port Qasim Authority : Port Qasim is the first industrial and commercial port of Pakistan operating under landlord concept. PQA handled a volume of 18.264 ‐06 2004‐05 16.424 09 25.1.588 ‐11 13.317 ‐02 15. Similarly in order to meet the electricity demands of the Port.7) Table‐14. The decline in revenues and profitability was as expected. showing an impressive growth of 5 percent over corresponding period of last year. This was 76.109 13 14.448 thousands tones in on going fiscal year (see Table 14. However. Tons of Wheat.933 ‐07 14.006 42 2005‐06 17.pk) .2. due to downturn in global shipping activities. PNSC has contracted to purchase two AFRAMAX oil tankers.7 : Cargo handled at Port Qasim Period Import % Change 1997‐98 13.336 million as against Rs.383 thousands tones in the current financial year.823 39 1998‐99 12.191 ‐12 1999‐00 13. the volume of export increased by 44 percent from 3.77 of last year. PNSC is in the process of replacing its ageing fleet.9.030 ‐05 18016 ‐09 18831 5 Source : Port Qasim Authority 209 published by Accountancy (www. a new 132 KVA Grid Station is under construction near Gawadar Port which will be fed from 220 KVA main Grid connected from Iran.747 2. The vessels are expected to be delivered soon in the current financial year.Transport and Communications The earnings per share for the period under review were Rs.839 4.350 13 26.123 ‐07 19.588 10 2006‐07 19.985 4. A 949 km Expressway from Gawadar to Rathodero is already under construction and is about 65% complete.431 3.144 1.000 M.000 DWT Panamax Bulker named POS Glosy which offloaded 63.129 2. The volume of import has declined by 6 percent from 14.com.243 thousands tones to 13.980 10 2003‐04 11. Future Prospects As part of its fleet replacement program.742 1. Today it caters for around 40 % shipping requirements of national economy.54 as against Rs.445 ‐10 July‐March 2008‐09 14243 ‐12 2009‐10 13383 ‐6 Export 1.932 ‐08 2002‐03 11.773 thousands tones to 5. The full operationalization of Gawadar Port will be possible after completion of the road linkage.573 11 24. 2 58. industry has shown possitive growth off 2..7 1. PQA plans p deepen ning of navigaation channeel of a cost of US$ 20 00 million forr all weather 14 meter draught at PQA. As again nst 3 private ssector projects in 25 5 years of Port P Qasim existence. therefore. PQA has chaalked out an ambitious deevelopment p plan. Cellular subscriibers At the end reached 96.com.7 58. 2 Oil jettty are curren ntly under co onstruction/p planned in private seector since 20 006.43% in th he last two quarters q of 2009.7 2. T Coaal & cement//Clinker Term minal. yet timely interventions by the Authority and 40 3.2 unstable political an nd economicc condition has 60 3 slowed down d the paace of teleccom growth. the ripple effects e of wh hich.2 60 0 40 0 33.4 1.4% (Feeb – 10). C Cellular Mobile reached the t telecom sector as weell. PQA hand dling capacityy shall bee increased to 86 million ttonnes per an nnum showingg an increasee of 115%.7 4 0. Grain & Fertilizer Terminal. a siggn of continuou us growth in the industry.3 96. Average annual grrowth has been b around 13% over last five yeaars which caalls for deveelopment off new beerths/terminal for capacitty enhancem ment. performancce of cellular in ndustry is of utmost im mportance to the overall sector growth. e 14. 2 Teledensity has reache ed 62.4 extraordin nary efforts by telecom companies have h 54..5‐i Cellular Mobile e of Feb ‐ 2010.1 1 0.9 20 0 0 2005‐06 200 06‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2 10‐Feb Source: PTA 210 published by Accountancy (www. With technologicaal revolutionss like 1. With thee completion of these term minals by 201 13. To meet m growing requiremeents for cap pacity en nhancement. PQA plans to spend more th han 18 billion rupees on in nfrastructure facilities in vaarious industrrial zones. x PQ QA is also viggorously purssuing development of ind dustrial comp plex. 2 IOCB.2 growth paattern.2 63. GasPortt LNG nd nd Flloating Terminal.2 2.5% %. 14. The currrent handling capacity off port with eleven e beerths is 40 million ton nnes per an nnum. formulaation of various regulatiions.accountancy.9 ensured that t the sector maintainss at least a linear 20 22. PTA has b become a fron nt runner amo ong the succeessful telecom m regulators o of the world. SIM S Informaation 2005‐06 2006 6‐07 2007‐08 20 008‐09 10‐Feb System ‘6 668’ and ach hievements like Reductio on in Source: PTA Taxes/Dutties.2 million depicting a net addition of Celllular Subscrribers 88 100 0 80 0 94. Cellular indu ustry has a 94 4% share in n total teleecom teledensity followed by fixed local loop (FLL) 3 3.Economic SSurvey 2009‐10 Future Plaans x Th here has bee en marked im mprovement in cargo han ndling over laast five years. x To o accommod date bigger veessels. Although the W Wireless Local Loop p 80 aftermath hs of precarrious securitty situation and 2.6 0 SIM Verification Systtem ‘789’.5 Tele ecom Sector The year 2 2009 has bee en a tough patch for Pakisttan’s Local Loop Teledensity economy in general. e 8 private sector projects which w includ de 2nd Container Term minal. In terms of statistics.pk) .7 1.5% and wireeless local loop p (WLL) 2. 50% Source: PTA Source: PTA 14.96% Sales 16.00 00.5%. Since Derregulation of telecom secttor in 2003.1 mn an nd 2.0 mn resspectively wh hile Warid and d Ufone lost aabout 1. We W can see a definite posiitive trend affter October.2%.000 3.89% % (Feb‐10) Instaphone 0.90% 1 Sales 32.199 9 subscribers (Jul‐Feb 10) with the aveerage of 209.000 5. aa total of 84 liceenses were issued to 37 7 operators for f 14 telecom regions in Pakistan.00 00.20% Telenor 22. 2009 mainly due to Ufon ne’s churn. the industry iss back on itts feet and continues c to o gain momentu um since last four months.50% Warid 18.000 1.15% Sales 23 3.000 9‐Dec 2008‐09 2007‐08 2006‐07 ‐ 2005‐06 ning world ovver due Fixed line services have been declin w solutions.5% % and 32. Zongg also added 0.8% share.2 subscribers.pk) .889.0% has been n achieved during Jul 09––Feb 10.. Ufone and Warid d share 19.00 00.77% Ufone 21. being the SM MP. to increasing popularity of wireless Pakistan is also experiencing a a fast decliine in subscriptiion during last few years with h the introductiion of wireless based technologies t which Fixed Line Subssribers 2004‐05 Fixed Loccal Loop is one of the oldest meaans of communication in th he country's telecom ind dustry. Teelenor continues to hold the second sp 16. 2009 which sud ddenly dropp ped in January.9 911 per month.80% Sales 19. Mobilink and Telenor added the highest number o of subscriberss with 2. Zongg follows with h market sharre of 7.. Cellulaar Mobile Shaare (Jun‐0 09) Zong 6.9 96 new subscribers respectively. Mobilink.5‐ii Fixxed Local Loo op 6.00 00.00 00.6 mn n and 1. Cellu ular growth rrate came to a gradual halt in the perio od from Augu ust to October.accountancy.00 00.Transport aand Communiccations 1. leads witth overall shaare of pot with 23.com.9 respeectively.04% Saales 0.000 2. Cellular SSubscribers grrowth rate of 2. Source: PTA 211 published by Accountancy (www.20% Mobilin nk 30. P It was w expected d that fixed line teledensity would increaase.0 00% Sales 7. as PTCL would be forced d to reduce e the tariffs and improve its standardss in lieu off intense co ompetition in the market. In terms of share in cellular c industtry (Feb – 10 0). Condition of celllular industryy was quite topsy‐ t turvy in th he last two q quarters. P But.000 4. 2010 mainly due to Warid’s W churn n of subscrib bers based on the ‘Active Su ubscriber’ de efinition of PTA. total WLL penettration level increased to 1 2009‐10. Broad dband market has experiencced unmatcheed growth raates and steaadily rising penetration p leevel coupled d with injection o of latest tech hnologies like WiMax and EEvDO. languagee barrier.Economic SSurvey 2009‐10 provide easy e and che eap alternatee of such serrvices.000 50 00.00 00. A total of 78. Broadban nd has long been termed aas ‘The Next Big Thing’ for Pakistan prrimarily becau use not only it is a fast and rreliable but also a cheap ssource of info ormation disssemination and communiccation. n growing at a rapid pace since WLL industry has been Source: PTA 4.50 00. Although the t growth rate r is less when n compared to t 17% in 20 008‐09. A close sccrutiny of all tthese factors would reveaal that broadban nd is actually propagatingg at a rapid pace p even exxceeding estiimations by various renowned broadban nd experts. computer skills. cellular grow wth and secu urity situation n are consideered. The inh herent constraintts of broadbaand also effeect its propaggation such as literacy ratte. Fo or example. high tariffs. ass they are pushing the existing e giantts like PTCL.69 million from m 2.000 1.com.00 00.000 9‐Dec 2008‐09 2007‐08 2006‐07 ‐ 2005‐06 Wireless llocal loop is aan importantt part of Pakistan's telecom sector as it provides a feasible lastt mile solution ffor rural telep phony due to relatively low w cost of deployyment and maintenance.5‐iv Broadband Broadban nd has often b been compareed with the ccellular industtry of Pakistan due to the exemplary grrowth of the lattter in the lastt few years.4 million at the end of Dec 2009 ass compared to 4. reservatio ons among parents regaarding cyber security an nd child safeety. 14.pk) . In n the current year. high cost o of computer eequipment ettc. The emerge ence of new operatorss has proved ass an important factor devvelopment off WLL sector.accountancy. slow roll out of services by operators in rural areaas is diminishing the poten ntial of wirelesss media. Itt is a fact thatt broadband penetration levels are low w but the exteent of this infantt industry’s su uccess should d be gauged b by its growth rates not its penetration llevel.000 1.5‐iii W WLL Subsribers and Growth 3. (Q1 2010). the performance p of WLL has been convincing if factorrs like recession. Wireless Locall Loop 14. similarly. Worldcall and Telecard to t improve their coverage and service sstandards.000 2. WLL teledensity has also been stteady 1.65% from 1 1. During firrst six montths of its incepttion in 2004 FY2009‐10 0. Pakistan lost over 10 06.6 million n (2008‐09). Although WLLL is ideal forr coverage in far flung areeas. m Pakistan op pened the WLL market in 20 003 by award ding 93 licensses to 16 operaators for 14 telecom reegions across the country. Pakistaan is ranked aamongst top five most dyn namic economiees in terms off increased intternet penetrration in Soutth Asian regio on (Source: UN NCTAD 2009)) 212 published by Accountancy (www. Figuree depicts thee declining trend of fixed d line services in n Pakistan.000 2. seervice availabilitty. WLL subsccriber tally reached r 2.60% in first ttwo quarters of FY last year.825 subscribers reachin ng at 3.5 million subscribers aat the end of JJune 2009. Business B Mon nitor Internattional (BMI) in its last quarterly reporrt (Q3 2009) had d forecasted that there will w be a 12% broadband penetration by end of 20 013 but revised its estimate tto 33% by end of 2014 in tthe most receent publicatio on.864 subscribers have been n added by WLL W operators showing a growth of 3% %.50 00.00 00. This T step will also encouragee a shift in pe eople’s depen ndency on dial up interneet in these areeas and even ntually converrt this huge poo ol of ‘internett users’ into ‘broadband internet i userrs’.000 88.Transport aand Communiccations Broadband Su ubscribers Subscribeers 800 0. 213 published by Accountancy (www.626 20 200 0. Khanewall.16% from m December 2 2008.G Khan. Broadband subscribers have reached d 688.373 witth a growth rate of 7% witth the At the end net additiion of 44.180 40 29 30 21 272. ind dustry statistiics as collecteed by PTA plaace Pakistan at the top off both the lists w when compare ed with otherr country’s figgures in the said report. these are subsiidized rates onlyy for rural areas where no n broadband service waas previously available.com. USF and industry has h brought 1‐Mbps PTC CL broadband d connection for only Rs. Khushab. Rahim Yar K Khan etc. Pakistan has been raanked 6th in term ms of quarte erly growth and a 10th in teerms of annu ual growth in the global broadband b m market (Source: P Point Topic). PTCL and Wateen are e the two maajor operatorrs of broadbaand in Pakistan while oth her companiees like Worldcall. Bhakkar.000 60 52 700 0. D. Such a low price of broadband connection n is unmatcheed anywhere in the world and d a major ach hievement for broadband stakeholderss.809 400 0. Bahaawalpur.373 68 50 50 00. up from m 0. Broadband penetration p leevel has also been steadily im mproving and d stands at 0.000 Grow wth 267 7. urturing this new born fieeld by provid ding a PTA as a regulator off the sector is actively involved in nu common platform forr broadband experts via establishmen nt of Broadb band Stakeho older’s Group p and facilitatingg the new entrants in evvery possiblee way. a reemarkable gro owth rate of 141% and 376. Compared w with Decemb ber 2008.accountancy. Th he first results of the ten nacious workk by PTA.792 500 0. Being an active member m in USSF board. However. It is hoped d that with such initiatives.000 7 2 100 0.712 net additiions depict the unmatcheed success off the sector.000 64 43. SSargodha. broadband willl soon be preesent in everyy nook and co orner of the country. Other pro ojects of USF like laying optical o fiber in ru ural areas an nd establishm ment of Educcational Broadband Centeers and Comm munity Broad dband centers w will bring more e awareness and elevate tthe power off Broadband aamong massees.000 413. To oba Tek Singh. Link direct aand Wi‐Tribe are catching up fast.892 600 0. PTA A has mandated d the broadbaand projects ffor rural areaas. To maintain n fairness.42%. 299/‐ to far furlong areeas of Faisalabad d and Multan n like Jhang. Link dot nett.pk) .481 1. Billions of Rupees are being invested d in the broad dband projects for f rural areaas via USF since 2007.000 10 0 ‐ ec‐08 De Maar‐09 Jun‐09 Seep‐09 Deec‐09 Jaan‐10 Source: PTA d of Jan‐2010 0.000 300 0. d In its early dayss.194 PC COs and Gro owth 279. how wever.320 30 00. thee total investtment by nearly 47% %. in the CPP industry off Pakistan.405.5‐vi(a)) Foreign Dire ect Investment 815 1. With the ad dvent of de‐regulation in 2003.905 Growth of o CPP has be een topsy‐turrvy over the last few yearrs in Pakistan n. new CPP companies em merged open ning the markket for a tough ccompetition.439 143 14. revenuee and Source: PTA teledensitty.000 353.000 1. where investmen nt opportuniities exist.121 Economic SSurvey 2009‐10 Source: P PTA 1. a total of US$ $ 1.pk) .500 464 14.5‐vi(b)) Telecom Se ector Investm ment Owing to economic slo owdown.490 50 00. As a result. there still remains huge areas likee Broadband d. it managged to attracct US$ 815 million m in 200 08‐09. a situ uation which a lo ot of newcom mers could not cope with h. the market was w dominated by PTCL an nd Telecard.000 9‐Dec 2008‐09 2007‐08 2006‐07 2005‐06 2004‐05 500 Pakistan'ss Economy experienced d slow economic growth en nding at 2% rather than the t target off 5. Despite th he fact that the operatorss have in the teleecom sector during 2008‐‐09 reduced b speedily rrolled out the eir infrastructture. reachingg out to mostt of the popu ulation.5‐v Caard Payphone e 449. 2.5‐vi Te elecom Econo omy 1.500 cellular co overage acrosss Pakistan. telecom sector continued c to grow positivelyy in terms of o subscriptiion. on nly a few big companies are a dominatin ng the CPP markket these dayss.com.359 388 186 388. there are 388.186 PCOs all o over Pakistan. as compareed to 405. lo ow cost of mobile m phonees and 2. which provided prepaid card d services to the people across a Pakistan. As Pakistan provides lucrative investtment environment for foreign investors in the teleco om. 214 published by Accountancy (www. This shows a neggative trend o of 4%.824 1. satu uration in thee market and d global finan ncial crisis. Currently. 2004‐05 14.000 10 00.186 2008‐09 9D 9‐Dec 40 00.5% ‐ mainly du ue to the advverse effects of global financial crisis. Th he main reaso on for this down nfall is availability of afffordable tarifffs by Fo oreign Directt Investmen nt cellular companies. WLL and manufacturin ng etc.6 billion w worth of invesstment has beeen made by all the operators. During th he last 6 mon nths (Jul‐Dec 09) telecom m sector received over USS$143 million n FDI inflow which w becomes 18% of total FDI during this period.accountancy.000 2007‐08 2006‐07 ‐ 2005‐06 Card payp phone service e has been a a part of Pakiistan's telecom engine e for decades.359 9 during the 2 2008‐09. 14. Hard compettition coupled d with remarkab ble growth of cellular indusstry translateed into financial crippling of f CPP compaanies. During D 2008‐09.000 20 00.000 387. 55 17.e.Transport aand Communiccations In nvestment in n Telecom LL WLL Cellular LDI 450 00 400 00 350 00 602. The govern nment has red duced the GST/FFED rate from m 21% to 19. D During the yeaar 2008‐09.53 36.00 100 0.75 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐0 09 0 Source: PTA 14.5 59 4.5 5%.31 1 2337.1 10 1.00 10.00 19.71 17 0. R 250 per new n connection. besides p providing relieef to cellular mobile operators in Activvation Tax by 50 0% i.15 36.41 1 276. th he sector con ntinued to contribute hand dsome amount in national kitty through vvarious taxes and regulato ory charges.0 02 12.6 69 21.74 300 00 342.38 21 20 0.50 2 26.20 14.60 7.95 2 21.80 2003‐04 200 04‐05 20 005‐06 1 11.7 75 40.8 403.72 1 17.5 100 00 50 00 52. TTelecom secto ors' contributtion to nation nal exchequerr rose to Rs.96 39.50 44. 11 11 billion the previous yearr. Telecom Contrribution in Exchequer PTA Depo osits Otherrs Activatio on Tax GSTT 120 0.35 9.5‐vi(c) Taxes on Te elecom Sector Telecom sector contributes 1‐2% in i the total GDP.00 80 0.7 150 00 1229. 112 2 billion in 2008‐09 compaared to Rs.57 746.38 36.pk) .accountancy.00 60 0.86 9. G making its share in total tax revvenue as 6‐7% % per annum.61 49.com. This will certainly enaable the secttor to contributee more to GST collection in the next year.1 250 00 200 00 2584.9 82.28 2 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 Source: PTA 215 published by Accountancy (www.00 0 0. from Rs.00 40 0.95 52. 500 to Rs.00 20 0.40 7. During th he year 2008 8‐09.9 billion b compared d to the last year's Rs. 333.6 Elecctronic Mediaa a) Pakistaan Electronicc Media Regulatory Autho ority (PEMRA)) Pakistan EElectronic Me edia Regulato ory Authorityy (PEMRA) has entered intto 8th year off its existencee.000 ‐ 2005‐06 2006‐‐07 2007‐08 008‐09 20 Source: PTA 14. x Paakistan Teleccommunicatio ons Authority (PTA) has formulated two sets of Key Perform mance In ndicators (KPII’s) to improvve and monito or the Qualityy of Service (Q QoS) of “Fixed Broadband d” and “G GPRS/EDGE” networks.2% % in previous year.8% growtth during 200 08‐09 compaared to 18.882 350. x Paakistan Teleccommunicatio on Authority (PTA) has removed the condition off CNIC copy being provided by th he consumerss in order to ffacilitate both h CSCs/franch hisees and con nsumers to handle an nd process m maximum num mber of complaints in shortt span of timee.000 50.pk) . The efforts rendered by th he Authority d during the paast few years for its develo opment and diversified ch hoices to the peeople for access to curren nt affairs.000 250.5‐vi(e)) Regulatory Measures fo or promoting telecom Secttor in Pakistaan x Paakistan Teleccommunicatio on Authority (PTA) launch hed a new seervice named “SIM Inform mation Syystem ‐ 668” to enable thee mobile subsscribers to kn now the total number of SSIMs issued aggainst th heir respectivve CNIC numb ber with each mobile operator. the tellecom sectorr generated revenue to the tune off Rs.5 billion.000 200.261 300.000 333. education.com. TThe cellular m mobile sector sho owed about 1 17% positive ggrowth during the fiscal yeear 2008‐09. 14. The Auth hority 216 published by Accountancy (www.accountancy. The T cellular mobile m sector continued to o be the lead der in telecom rrevenue.000 278. info ormation and entertainmeent.6 613 194. Th he objective of introducin ng these KPIss is to create transparency and seet monitor‐ab ble standards in fixed broaadband and G GPRS/EDGE seervices.562 150. 27 78. who ose share cam me out to be 64% in the ttotal telecom m revenues.Economic SSurvey 2009‐10 14. Telecom Revenues 400.000 235.5‐vi(d)) Telecom Re evenues Telecom ssector revenu ue showed a 19.000 100. x Paakistan Teleccommunicatio on Authorityy (PTA) has introduced an a online faccility for oveerseas Paakistanis in order o to get their SIMs data regularized or to block the extra SIMs/connecctions isssued against their Computerized Natio onal Identity C Card (CNIC). x This year the Authority has established new offices across the country for the close monitoring of the quality distribution services by stakeholders to the viewers. The Authority has already decided that in pursuance of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).pk) . Fabric of social and religious harmony in the society has to be kept intact. Authority has planned that the analogue system will be phased out to be replaced with the digital systems gradually starting from tehsil headquarters to small villages by end of year 2015. the Authority has remained steadfast in performing its social and moral obligations and succeeded in formulating a draft for Code of conduct for the local satellite TV channels and restricting foreign content in the regular broadcasting with the cooperation of private TV channels. further licencing for analogue distribution system shall be discouraged while the systems equipped preferably with the digital technology shall be granted licences. Altogether 83 licenses for establishing satellite TV channels have been conferred so far and from which 64 are operational. x Additional 149 cable TV networks were licensed all across Pakistan during the last one year. x Combating cultural invasion by various foreign satellite TV channels.Transport and Communications believe that freedom of speech and expression needs to be exercised in such a fashion that sentiments of any segment of the society are not hurt. Future Plans Technological advancements will also have an impact on the industry. x During current financial year. x During the current fiscal year. This includes Style‐360 and OYE. x The Authority has also rationalized tariff for satellite TV channels so to encourage potential investors and enhance voice of Pakistan in an effective manner.accountancy. Authority has created considerable employment opportunities against the vacant posts for skilled workers in Pakistan and appointed near 146 staff members. In rural areas. making the total number of licenses issued till date to 2373.com. owners. It is pertinent to mention that 2 of these were conferred to M/s Eye Television Network (PCT). 08 licenses for establishing FM radios network were awarded making the total number of licenses issued under the category till date to 135. Contribution Towards Development of Broadcast and Distribution Media During The FY 2009‐10 x PEMRA has issued 05 new licenses for establishing satellite TV channels. A few of the merging technologies under regulatory appraisal by the Authority are as follows: • • • • • • Digital Cable TV Networks IPTV Networks Direct to Home (DTH) Satellite Radio Digital terrestrial Television Mobile Television etc. b) Pakistan Television Corporation Limited (PTV) Pakistan Television is gradually extending its signal to remote and economically backward areas of the country in order to uplift the socio‐economic conditions in these areas to eliminate the existing 217 published by Accountancy (www. Ltd. x PTV National has also been introduced Regional Language programmes. Jhang. Sadiqabad. Besides special on air programme. Shamali (Batagram) Shaikh Badin (D. Karan. Programme & new wings achievements during current financial year x Re‐orientation of programme in line with peoples aspirations. x Live Broadcast from IDP camps in NWFP are aired from provincial network and portions of which are also aired on NBS.Khan) and 8 Rebroadcast centers at upper Dir in NWFP. c) Pakistan Broadcasting Corporation (PBC) Pakistan Broadcasting Corporation has 65 broadcasting units. Jaglot/Banju. Dhudhnial. The largest radio network in the country with a listener‐ship that is bigger than all private radio channels put together. Salam Baba. Gahkuch. x Permanent TV Centre at Multan and Rebroadcast Station at Mian Channu. Athmaqam. The PBC and ISPR have set new examples in collaboration for national cohesion and elimination of terrorism and extremism. as per ITU requirement has also been forwarded. Khaplu. Khund Bangla. Kohat. x Rebroadcast Centers at Buneer.com. Puran.pk) . Besham.I. Chilas. Kharan.Economic Survey 2009‐10 disparity. x High Definition (H. An independent Sports‐ channel through terrestrial network has also been planned. x Project of Terrestrial Digitalization DVB‐T & H of all Centers. Sharda & Kel in AJ & K. Procurement of Vehicle Mounted DSDNG & Digitalization of all TV Rebroadcast stations has been planned. The PBC has launched special interactive programmes containing music. Future Plans x Rebroadcast centers at Jura. x Rebroadcast centers at Aliabad/Karimabad. Ladhawala Waraich Gujranwala in Punjab. x Radio Pakistan has become the voice of the people’s government against terrorism and extremism by supporting the armed forces and security agencies carrying out difficult operations in the country.D) TV has been planned. democratic norms and participatory spirit. x PTV Abaseen (NWFP) & PTV Bolan (Baluchistan) channels have been planned. establish and sustain Radio Swat and other FATA radio stations. Sohrab &Bar Khan in Baluchistan. x Rebroadcast Centers at Qilla. Astore and Shigar in Northern Areas.accountancy. x Rebroadcast Centers at Badin and News Bureau at Larkana in Sindh. major fund‐raising cultural shows were held all over the country to sow solidarity with the IDPs and promoting awareness 218 published by Accountancy (www. x We have helped install. talk’s shows and interviews by prominent personalities and public participatory programmes. Patriata. x A new pubic outreach campaign was launched by arranging cultural and intellectual discourse programmes all over the country. x To restore the credibility now the news value is driving the structure and timing of the news bulletins. Breaking news is aired as and when they occur. monitoring and reconciliation of the specialized money order scheme. linguistic and cultural diversity). The center also facilitates disbursement of inward foreign remittances. Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) Complete web‐enabled tracking and monitoring system for disbursement of funds for Benazir Income Support Program continued processing. x All PBC Stations have been linked with the tools of SMS and LIVE phone calls to ensure public participation resulting in the creation of new audience as well as the retention of the old.pakpost. The web based Express Mail Track and Trace System of Pakistan Post provides valuable information relating to the dispatch and delivery of Express Mail articles from 219 published by Accountancy (www. c.166 million). x The PBC will have a survey conducted by an independent organization to evaluate the effect to the new initiatives launched in December. following ongoing IT related projects have been strengthened and continued providing efficient services to the clients.gov. extremism.). sectarianism. b.pk) . Call Center A call center has been established for receiving the complaints from the customers as well as BISP beneficiaries for quick redressal.7 Pakistan Post Office Pakistan post office is covering the whole country with a network of 12340(Urban 1846. x A new digitization plan has been conceived to create a digital platform with the help of IBM at an estimated cost of $ 2 million (Rs. 6 million has been collected for deposit in PM’s fund. x Pakistan needs national consensus on major issues (terrorism. Pakistan identity. PBC is planning a national network programmed involving celebrities and leading public opinion and newsmakers of Pakistan as a part of the efforts to achieve this goal in August 2009. An amount of more than Rs.pk has been provided for the public. Pakistan Post has taken various measures to streamline the Post Office System on modern lines. Rural 10495) post offices. Counter Automation Over one hundred GPOs including renovated post offices throughout Pakistan have been provided with counter computerization facility for better service quality to the customers.com. Future Plans x A new plan about the revival of Pakistan Broadcasting Academy is underway. as 2009‐2010 has been declared by PBC as the Academy year. Express Mail Track & Trace System (EMTTS) Provision of tracking information to the articles under receipt has become a de‐facto standard in the courier industry. 14. 2009. This number is being increased in a phased manner. During current financial year 2009‐10(July‐Dec. d. a.Transport and Communications against terrorism. Online complaint lodging facility on the web‐portal of Pakistan Post www.accountancy. In additional 46 District Mail Offices throughout Pakistan Post have been covered through the system. 14. Pakistan Post has mail inks with all countries of the world except Israel. 2. 854. The mail exchange with these countries takes place under Universal Postal Union’s Rules & Regulations. 14. 220 published by Accountancy (www.3 million Pensioners are served by Pakistan Post. 50. Computerized Pension Payment System Over 1.8. For the Remaining countries.719 the current financial year. the remittances in foreign exchange were received in the shape of money orders were Rs. The system has been enhanced and now covers 14 main stations throughout Pakistan.com.pk) .904.Economic Survey 2009‐10 end‐to‐end. 446. e.accountancy. the mail is exchanged by utilizing the transit facilities of intermediary Postal Administrations. During the first six months of current financial year. Through computerization of Military Pension payments.7‐2 International Postal Services.7‐3 Remittance Services. The net earning of the Pakistan Post Department from international postal services stood at Rs. at all GPOs have efficiently been disbursing the pensions in a hassle free environment. Direct mail links exist with 165 Postal Administrations. 607 4.90 68.885 247.90 64.841 167.839 95.791 7.90 73.72 7.345 229.060 179.330 3.812 21.791 7.971 5.791 7.80 69.63 3.456 23.307 118.612 4.117 133.accountancy.14 6.791 7.893 23.638 18.943 97.791 7.791 7.89 5.43 83.930 84.70 78.030 83.775 8.80 64.823 182.791 7.021 261.014 4.98 5.530 172.083 104.) Freight Wagons (Nos.320 102.00 72.791 58.214 259.891 174.491 88.775 8.462 137.972 251.478 107.775 8.809 19.70 73.11 6.820 4.556 20.484 248.573 4.56 7.259 Total 170.335 90.340 249.373 91.453 6.817 207.428 126.42 7.40 75.00 61.645 218.132 110.00 68.755 25.527 95.709 5.877 153.984 87.85 6.97 4.077 4.) 753 752 703 676 678 622 633 611 596 597 610 577 577 592 557 544 544 555 551 34.45 4.791 7.917 103.938 6.238 92.709 189.321 196.374 99.460 23.18 81.pk) .328 (Contd.851 30.543 162.775 8.140 105.722 21.18 6.338 99.178 5.77 5.001 111.775 8.618 Kilometers High Type 86.77 8.117 26.352 138.896 7.228 30.72 67.906 23.775 8.775 7.652 148.320 177.450 259.350 260.447 4.89 79.791 7.1 TRANSPORT Fiscal Year 8.54 Freight carried (Million Tonnes) 7.451 29.140 80.168 256.30 59.290 Low Type 83.200 520 16.225 158.070 258.65 68.796 5.925 Route (Kilometres) 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 (Jul-Mar) 2009-10 P P : Provisional Length of Roads Locomotives (Nos.661 252.962 6.213 24.TABLE 14.821 258.791 7.791 Number of Passengers carried *(Million) 84.) published by Accountancy (www.99 82.com.94 Railways Freight Tonne (Kilometres Million) 5.200 144.775 8.180 5.36 5.711 5.423 110.784 98.638 17.23 6.03 6.41 6.816 96.595 240.90 6.369 29.275 24.04 8.520 4. 517 11.703 16.410 17 290.0 8.364 20.805 4.750 Gross Earnings (Million Rs.113 5.346 4.192 38.821 14 50. 6.515 6.256 17.761.579 14 469.572 4.732 Cargo Handled at Karachi Port (000 tonnes) Imports 14.267 17.405.362 17.0 9.572 3.956 28 494.714 15.860.031 3.836 14 243.224 4.753.566.458.0 9.302.615 32.5 14.732 22.875 3.311.707.517 25.5 23.195 9.581 23.536 Shipping No.353 15 261.931 14 570.053 23.0 18.526 18.063.981 26.TABLE 14.186 4.) Pakistan Pakistan Railways National Shipping Corp.pk) .009 6.749 13 229.0 9.453 22.7 13.570 5.813 28.0 Source: (i) : Ministry of Railways (ii) : National Transport Research Center (iii) : Karachi Port Trust (iv) : Pakistan National Shipping Corporation published by Accountancy (www.846 37.027 7.475 22.149 20.0 14.182 14 536.973 10.612 5.365 6.5 9.817 15 261.362 6.675 13.0 11.0 11 649.134 3.865.483.466 15 636.719 18.089.1 TRANSPORT Fiscal Year 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 (Jul-Dec) 2009-10 Total 18.170 22.761 25.735 5.accountancy.959 5.474.184 7.684 24.9 18.995 5.555.810 5.367 Exports 3.914 4.953 27 595.318 18.0 9.1 19.692 25.696 3.137.836 15 264.610 17.182 15 636.270 30.329 25.956 29 518.394 7.862 5.273 6.881.597.081 6.836 15 261.545 14.918 6.802 14 243.962.697 7.6 19.114 18.709 20.852 27.569 23.924.0 9.063 20.310 3. of Dead Vessels Weight Tonnes 28 494.0 8.com.100 25.573 23.938 5.098 23.836 15 261.0 9.609 21.635 6.330 19.236 4.160 11. 7 64.104 129.7 65.796 1997-98 325.435 1998-99 1.033 46 21.155 Revenue Passengers Kilometres (mln) 10.158 2001-02 291.525 87.0 Operating Operating PIA Fleet Revenue Expenses No.147 10.843 11.692 9.456 2.150 47 32..302 2006-07 1.377 1993-94 303.505 27.991 22.645 5.1 53.276 12.649 1997-98 1.544 1995-96 310.347 45 23.517 5.587 79.307 2.086 4.974 2002-03 311.4 57.124 13.686 136.212 2001* 324.403 1999 * 1.934 2009* 1.297 2.033 2005-06 1.417 24.528.564 98.164 39 70.479 132.197 42 61.074 42 70.0 59.914 5.531 5..759 2008-09 311.0 Passenger Load Factor % 64.809 47 .4 68.3 70.425 2.401 2003-04 1.536 69.3 69.848 16. 47 .4 58.0 (Contd.634 15.525 2.416 132.483 2000* 317. : Not available * : PIA's Financial Year is based on Calendar Year Revenue Load Factor (%) 56.6 51.615 110.0 53.302 2007-08 383.125 43 51.5 67.5 63.146 2004-05 354.883 5.570 80.617 5.4 71.528 16.452 2.664 80.480 76.066 65.2 19.399 5.213 76.3 19.0 69.752 17.102 10.273 2006-07 446.205 74.159 15.2 57.2 53.680 13.136 134.653 12.775 131.801 3.125 2008-09 1.7 69.347 1994-95 1.369 2007-08 1.560 2000 * 1.942 96.5 51.733 15.221 72.417 75.122 134.136 108.132 5.108 10.0 54.041 47.348 70.270 2002-03 1.580 2009* 380.744 73.722 10.8 68.859.228 42.6 55.683 138.365 2.313 2. 45 35.408 2.661 11.313.333 2.395 51 39.199 47 27.863 2003-04 294.729 4. .152 63.666 141.5 65.pk) .663 1998-99 335.428 62.9 66.131 79..5 54.769 13.492 36.839 18.952 16.697 1999* 332..442 39.308 62.535 132.0 55.828 5.415 44 89.452 1995-96 1.4 55.631 22.360 42 67..593 3.389 2.296 45 42.657 3.391 4.352 1993-94 1.7 58.574 80.966 23.780 5.377 44 45.092 20.014 143. of (Million (Million Planes Rupees) Rupees) 21.579 42 94.082 58.379 135.348 21.325 2.629 40 Source: Pakistan International Airlines Corporation published by Accountancy (www.5 56.) TABLE 14.056 6.288 1996-97 336.438 2001-02 1.526 1996-97 1.262 141.8 55.925 13.844 39.528 2004-05 1.321 69.260 15.382 10.230 78.2 PAKISTAN INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES CORPORATION Fiscal Year Revenue Available Tonne Tonne Kilometres Kilometres (Mln) (Mln) 1992-93 1.970 21.2 PAKISTAN INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES CORPORATION Revenue Kilometres Flown (000) 1992-93 270.9 52.917 80.5 58.713 47 25.com.732 5.264 18.495 2.024 1994-95 353.415 5.580 2.TABLE 14.592 11.305 10.108 * : PIA's Financial Year is based on Calendar Year Fiscal Year Route Kilometres Revenue Hours Flown Revenue Passengers Carried (000) 5.933 .accountancy.699 2005-06 343.818 3.796 5.201 120.573 17.631 2001 * 769 1.732 32.8 67.778 16.290 4.378 132.765 131.299 20.891 Available Seat Kilometres (mln) 15.2 66. .574 73.885 15.815 40.5 63.402 2.8 64. 654 923.321.175.731 5.157 4.076 126.017 860.279 797.TABLE 14.712.562 100.960 819.501 83.134 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (Jul-Mar) 2010 E E : Estimated Motor Cycle (3 Wheels) 50.531 1.066 2.527 2.292.749 1.988 98.391 114.307 1.370 69.027 204.681.104 185.376 103.394 118.282.004 131.954 84.619 89.056 2.345 99.027 170.183 63.737 1.549 700.687 83.136 1.878 558.351.173.691 150.190 1.615 178.730 2.701.975.068.883 181.538 164.162.897 52.479.315 Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics published by Accountancy (www.444.842.416 954.401 158.415 119.250.400 54.105 93.375.688.182 83.270 1.866 3.116 1.755 Motor Cycle (2 Wheels) 1.777 95.381.281 615.499 1.919 122.569 157.510 62.016 89.757.407.037 5.837 2.pk) .887 975.672 162.560 95.702.876 1.439 56.892 93.068.754.267 6.267 59.123.862 52.738 1.350 868.094 94.419 1.608.171 111.179 205.322 132.645 2.444 53.217 3.235 41.553.756 76.718 772.552 846.150 183.043 3.913 3.048.242 165.578 105.159 902.245 47.747 1.395.833.843.838.025 528.132.245 107.480 873.722.296 4.3 NUMBER OF MOTOR VEHICLES REGISTERED Calendar Year Motor Cars Jeeps & Station Wagons 682.201.658 131.775 172.197.301.729 6.840 825.309 746.371 1.488 2.853 6.448 124.444.559.497 642.311 85.357.827 194.417 5.926 589.260.681 107.157 184.370 1.035.407 115.923.154 Motor Cabs/ Taxis 32.957 163.945 4.365 125.286.980 986.184 3.440 113.224 81.596 4.516 114.174 666.962 191.969 1.530 181.346.108 154.228 Others Total 507.039 1.772 2.252 3.454 201.573.567 2.466 2.292 3.590 1.598 5.389 119.995.987.577 966.049 156.540 2.857 216.888 1.304 33.303.929 150.549 5.179.702 5.636 731.435.111 148.134 137.669.026 Buses Trucks 84.017 1.085.844 83.accountancy.421 2.259 1.com.174 123.948 3.679.940 83.497.537.204 96.694 162.895 145.182.490 4.825 909.406 1.315 724.277 84. 70 50.00 4.88 111.30 7.20 56.60 Motor Rck 42.40 102.40 132.50 68.00 5.063.60 35.287.40 60.00 1.70 0.40 54.com.50 140.10 47.22 155.90 0.80 169.80 151.50 52.70 3.165.70 56.40 140.10 121.40 44.10 4.80 0.70 56.70 149.90 0.50 47.70 74.50 40.48 9.60 7.80 1.40 2.00 98.656.50 84.20 722.40 60.70 0.50 72.00 2.70 3.50 4.682.00 44.40 132.00 Station Wagon 43.60 108.80 6.30 353.00 7.60 489.30 145.999.10 129.037.40 4.80 138.30 4.00 1.00 1.80 424.40 47.791.50 3.10 5.951. Cab/ Taxi 33.60 6.40 61.60 51.80 173.00 78.85 129.20 5.30 0.46 2.80 181.29 (Contd.60 48.80 439.90 143.00 65.70 928.10 2.40 46.10 50.50 Ambulance 1.00 5.60 68.20 151.50 45.00 Motor Car 429.26 Source: National Transport Research Center published by Accountancy (www.00 18.60 8.413.30 68.60 180.009.50 50.70 7.50 9.10 112.10 822.076.651.368.70 55.40 69.50 104.90 30.010.80 89.481.90 51.70 Others Total 49.833.70 1.00 59.878.52 911.70 4.50 71.70 66.70 89.30 121.90 64.30 100.40 275.) Oil 4.60 56.00 1.00 2.30 2.80 5.20 1.10 119.481.70 1.853.80 96.50 115.193.70 778.20 4.40 58.20 7.10 56.30 125.40 78.576.50 47.20 39.34 88.70 78.20 1.50 593.90 120.463.90 0.60 98.87 79.50 69.084.40 1.10 1.4 MOTOR VEHICLES ON ROAD (000 Number) Year 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 (Jul-Mar) 2009-10 * * : Estimated Mcy/ Scooter 971.10 5.00 60.00 51.pk) .20 146.16 Jeep Tractor Buses 31.30 43.07 70.90 1.70 2.30 117.80 79.accountancy.60 7.80 52.40 103.41 97.00 731.30 80.50 1.70 65.00 127.50 2.80 16.60 60.30 121.30 104.70 126.80 51.882.768.10 465.70 7.24 144.60 84.90 1.50 4.70 4.10 1.040.10 163.029.50 69.60 74.405.40 104.90 81.00 81.40 82.13 4.30 3.30 1.70 17.218.30 3.30 87.00 376.60 399.80 41.40 116.40 71.30 815.19 TABLE 14.60 38.80 0.00 2.50 663.60 45.20 3.01 5.20 92.00 1.80 7.195.90 1.85 120.691.60 93.50 8.30 69.80 528.40 92.00 89.482.30 1.90 2.13 195.80 65.40 109.80 86.60 7.50 53.048.60 120.315.50 44.30 77.42 Tankers Water 0.30 4.60 96.20 81.10 1.60 5.10 57.90 93.80 74.70 85.264.70 0.00 4.80 122.20 72.30 877.50 40.471.70 63.60 0.00 3.20 6.50 1.20 110.70 5.TABLE 14.73 1.70 0.80 538.30 84.063.40 579.40 564.00 62.30 177.90 0.50 167.20 2.90 163.10 6.20 75.70 59.Van Trucks Pickup 61.30 43.460.90 72.80 79.4 MOTOR VEHICLES ON ROAD (000 Number) Year 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 (Jul-Mar) 2009-10 * * : Estimated D.80 900.00 41.80 9.10 M.016.70 3.00 71.70 73.70 516.20 38.90 0.80 5.997.40 630.30 148.70 2.60 73.469.40 80.30 2.80 463.60 3.00 1.711.80 493.30 122.110.095.63 2.80 8.80 84.690.80 80.80 3.000.40 87.68 176. 955 121.858 39..154 1.773 746 38.461 117. 22 ... Truck etc.167 38. 15 .. 5.034 443 500 545 535 119.805 1 340 2.. 27 952 3 4 10. 80 .. Chassis Spl. 4 57 4 . 173 36. Chassis with Engine Pickup Delivery Van Chassis Un-Mounted Motor Vehicles No Bicycle Motor Vehicles for Goods Passenger Vehicles Public No Tractor Chassis with Engine .363 165 97 34. ..349 3 26 88 219 62.672 3.511 4.310 17.964 15 11 102 .218 .314 5.216 343 548 251 31.573 457 468 .131 1.. . 8 480 27 . 265 31. ..379 17 2..886 651 14..211 62 14. 3. 22. 48 .S) Road Tractors for Trailers Tractor Agricultural Tractor Caterpiller Tractor Heavy Duty for const.469 ...274 16.. 323 14 8 179 28 ..945 63.177 11.478 1. (Contd.247 893 267 344 396 498 603 917 588 4.809 31.940 . 1.970 308 426 212 461 86.743 1... 2 .965 459 32.099 2.com..793 26..079 117. 17. 4 ..149 .accountancy.208 2.220 8.834 2. Trucks & Vans Motor Cycle Scooter Motorised Cycles Passengers M.435 7 925 318 152 79.535 250 326 35.187 338 20 115 2.505 134 57 43 151 22 18 146 160 ..) 99 published by Accountancy (www..734 3.) Trucks Buses L.101 1..) Cars Jeeps Motor Rickshaw Station Wagon Buses Including Trolly Buses Lorries/Trucks Including Ambulance special Lorries.086 .. 115 2 ..343 .743 2.100 959 .673 882 1. Tractor Roads Tractor (NES) Car's Chassis with Engine Bus etc....618 9 7.916 1 8.337 6. 183 . 113 .831 ... 1 24 26 .916 862 9. : not available 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2.907 703 312 5.484 2. 62 ..656 380 35.020 6 38 1.235 .Vs 4x4 Vehicles Tractors Motor Cycle/Scooters/ Rickshaw Cars IMPORTS (Nos.850 425 4. .188 1.533 95.. 436 5 3 1 13 25.144 1.462 96.188 33...514 60. Cars (n.. 36 55 115 .128 816 14.218 ..817 792 10. 10 277 .030 438 6.751 1.881 32.281 1 7 2.683 93...127 1.885 977 1..TABLE 14. 29.851 .682 94.. Chassis Rickshaw. 61 .. 990 338 99 90. 6.817 542 .417 1..844 .222 1..988 48 8 71 62..144 3.573 100.506 1.305 919 198 135.394 427 5.851 1 900 143 46.084 2 193 6.324 17. 3.948 2. 78 14 .823 ..958 19.703 1.303 194 3..038 952 1. 928 127 9. 5. .931 22.508 6.. 37 3. .100 40 234 224 102 115.991 33... . .C.079 622 26.771 10 . 28 12 . 6. .592 145 3 161 138 15.960 20.220 .pk) . 5.5 PRODUCTION AND IMPORT OF MOTOR VEHICLES Fiscal Year/ Type of Vehicles PRODUCTION (Nos.738 8 44 162 109 85. 17 . 871 1.. . .564 821 Delivery Van 2.610 4. .573 112.587 1.146 1. 6 20 20 .378 * 7.586 1.518 4.354 1.314 166..645 Cars 41..512 20..898 1..103 43. .364 10.380 1. .036 2.745 134... ..108 1.769 30.914 2.472 90.158 11. 631 Passenger Vehicles Public No 6 473 721 1. .174 14.435 5.883 2. .010 11.TABLE 14.249 42.491 12. .583 311 37 37 5 Chassis Un-Mounted 168 .626 164.607 60.com.114 179..145 751.463 16.952 Spl.746 49. .March Fiscal Year/ 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Type of Vehicles 2008-09 2009-10 P PRODUCTION (Nos..141 1.591 327. Chassis with .341 7.429 411 2.171 63.310 163.) Trucks 1.167 3. Motor Vehicles No Bicycle 20. Chassis .611 424.554 88..104 1.559 1. .938 Scooter .057. 4 120 219 563 632 845 744 402 331 273 Tractor Roads 15.. .493 Buses 1..Vs 8..327 special Lorries.240 46.accountancy.022 28. shifting and deleting of new HS code for 2005-06 onwards published by Accountancy (www. . 38 48 335 9 9 23 Rickshaw.334 176.174 1.726 13.404 Tractor Agricultural 220 14. .348 655.455 Tractors 24.303 21. Engine 36 10 2 144 315 * 421 * 187 6 6 6 Pickup 3.610 53.869 1.130 66.667 839.588 8.544 551 573 875 1.224 1.110 Motor Cycle 133.442.104 652 217 232 210 183 Lorries/Trucks Including Ambulance 728 14.857 5.543 20.861 189. . Chassis 60 46 164 18 7 24 314 1.501 36.892 434 370 164 Tractor (NES) 115 496 736 2.230 2.927 11..070 128.563 202.439 54.123 836 363 336 239 Tractor Chassis with Engine ....115 2.993 3.022 3.017 550 1...646 2.509 38..672 21.099 1.. Motorised Cycles 509 675 4.228 2. .587 Car's Chassis with Engine 1 .174 690 557 495 154 Passengers M. .C.409 2.952 127.446 571. .089 23.204 4.844 297 22 2 .938 * 210 14 13 23 Motor Rickshaw 101 3 3 15 1.581 19.721 167.751 913.613 29.420 6. : not available P : Provisional * : Data has been revised according to new codification and introduction. .762 627 993 1..331 2.405 1.529 1...410 4..727 60..785 * 540.000 11. .5 PRODUCTION AND IMPORT OF MOTOR VEHICLES July .519 125 125 907 Station Wagon 165 440 154 37 284 2.. .836 39.187 52.107 26.472 12.143 9.373 11.467 18. Trucks & Vans 157 54 95 1.616 13. Cars (n. .711 143.284 904 1.300 85.149 1.331 76.354 16.600 5. .894 61. . .146 657 294 320 L.240 37. ..332 19.890 Tractor Caterpiller 44 1 30 91 12 1 1 . . ...098 200.519 5. .. Bus etc.721 308.) Cars 40.. Truck etc. .817 * 345 28 28 108 Buses Including Trolly Buses 700 1..950 2.135 1..S) Road Tractors for Trailers 18 122 124 117 498 997 2.394 23.213 16..338 36.120 471 26 178 2....610 Motor Cycle 111.340 1.636 1.025 425. .793 34.079 60..409 2.381 163.755 Jeeps 666 6.162 6. .203 963 3. Tractor Heavy Duty for const.493 IMPORTS (Nos.331 54...267 100.078 * 209.pk) . . .554 161 194 243 244 1.966 20.325 Motor Vehicles for Goods 2 234 511 269 3.. 546 13.213 13.107 10.494 12.pk) .284 12.909 1992-93 1.471 13.071 10.194 387.022.019..413 11.901 217.366 Urban 1990-91 1.. .380 11.103 1999-00 2..327 13..849 2007-08 1. .343 10.340 .315 13.808 2003-04 2.676 5. .302 2001-02 1.410 10. 2558 .267 10.285 11.80 3656 1.320 11..812 94.404.771. .. 3... .983 1993-94 1. .845 2006-07 1.50 3340 0.831 2005-06 1.com.. 97.852 Jul-Mar 2009-10 1.50 ** No of PCO * 3.490 449..499 12. . 1548 .027 196.463 742...970 1994-95 2. Telephones Internet No.20 3124 0.983 2002-03 1.342 10.514 12.400 66.01 2861 0.597 353.359 Mobile Phones .6 POST AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS Fiscal Year No of Post Offices Rural Total 11.254 9.216 11. .210 5128 2.160.400 5.267 2004-05 1.196 11.70 3.002 3523 3. 2756 0.606 1.495 12..751 12.446 12.. .192 13.698.092 1996-97 2.60 1. 2126 .493 180. 1801 .849 2008-09 1.422 4..840 12.854 9..044 1998-99 2.600 9.accountancy.389 4806 3...107 10.793 12.751 12. .330 10.50 2. 1461 .867 1991-92 1.294 10..874 88.203 34..00 4940 1.908 12.940 Source: (i) : Pakistan Post Office (ii) : Pakistan Telecommunications Company Ltd (iii) : Pakistan Telecommunication Authority published by Accountancy (www. .024 1997-98 2.751 139.10 2.103 2000-01 2.419 11..TABLE 14.00 1.. .339 10.026 1995-96 2... 68.854 10.932 12.40 2.096 265.898 5191 2.030 .040 10.557 63.038 135.121 405.614 306. 2376 .861 4.342. .234 10..50 ** . : Not Available * : Included Cardpay Phones ** : All over country Note : Telegraph offices closed in 2006 No of Telegraph Offices Urban Rural Total 195 302 497 299 210 509 320 210 530 327 85 412 330 86 416 319 104 423 340 93 433 356 92 448 308 93 401 293 91 384 293 91 384 258 104 362 239 87 326 215 73 288 215 77 292 .536 2. of Internet (000 Nos.294 13.. ..419 4546 3.968 97.846 10.579. .350 4460 2.618 6.) Connections Cities (Million) connected 1188 .494 12.250 13.506. all major cities of Pakistan face haphazard. The Mid‐Term Development Framework: 2005‐2010 (MTDF 2005‐10) of the Planning Commission has been developed in line with the National Environment Action Plan (NEAP) objectives. Thus. fisheries.e. hunting forestry. Poverty is the main impediment in dealing with the environment related problems. a) rapidly growing energy demand and b) a fast growing transport sector. Under the present scenario. Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) launched by the present government is expected to have a positive impact on poverty alleviation and in releasing stress on natural resources and environment. and Ecosystem management. Therefore. urban congestion is the prime reason of ever deteriorating ambient air and water quality. but lead and carbon emissions are major air pollutants in urban centres.. combined with a dramatic expansion in the number of vehicles on roads. Although Pakistan’s energy consumption is still low by world standards. In the cities. Air pollution levels in Pakistan’s most populated cities are high and climbing causing serious health issues.1 Air Pollution Main factors causing degradation to air quality are.com. The Plan has been prepared keeping in mind Pakistan’s experience with such initiatives in the last decade. 221 published by Accountancy (www. This challenge is further compounded with rapid urbanization due to a shift of population from rural to urban areas. solid waste management and loss of biodiversity. solid waste management. Since the municipal authorities and utility service providers have limitations in extending their facilities.Environment 15 Environment challenges and issues of Pakistan are associated primarily with an imbalanced social and economic development in recent decades. implementation and oversight and the identified needs for improvement in such capacity. unplanned expansion leading to increase in pollution.accountancy. the current capacity to undertake planning. clean air. Since poor are directly dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods whether agriculture. There is an increasing demand on the already depleting natural resource base of the country. Poverty combined with a rapidly increasing population and growing urbanization is leading to intense pressures on the environment. This unchecked growth has led to creation of slums areas around city peripheries and low lying area. This environment‐poverty nexus cannot be ignored if effective and practical solutions to remedy environmental hazards are to be taken. the managers of Pakistan’s major urban centres are facing rising difficulties in developing their management plans to provide adequate water and sanitation facilities and health services to ensure a healthy living environment. clean water. and focuses on four core areas i. The MTDF clearly specifies issues in environment which need to be addressed. In this regard. Environmental degradation is fundamentally linked to poverty in Pakistan. widespread use of low‐quality fuel. 15. etc. has led to significant air pollution problems.pk) . there has been a dire need to work on poverty alleviation. Quetta 47. Number of regional offices of Environmental 0 8 16 6 Protection Agencies Functional Environmental Tribunals 2 4 ‐‐ 4 Source: Planning Commission Several studies carried out by Environment Protection Agency (EPA) and the air quality data recorded by continuous monitoring stations in 5 capital cities confirmed presence of high concentration of suspended particulate matter.5) 121. burning of garbage and presence of loose dust.9% 5.accountancy.com.2 47.2 4. Ozone (O3) and Hydrocarbon (HC) are still within safe limits though some pockets of high concentration are found in congested places.2 and Fig‐1 shows average pollutants in 5 capital cities 1.1 40 20 0 Source: EPA The level of gases like Carbon Monoxide (CO).5) City Level ug/m3 80 60 73 70.pk) . Peshawar 70. has reached to an alarming point (2 ‐ 3.2 5.0% 5. which give short term exposure to public.3% (% age of total area) No. Sulphur Dioxide (SO2).6 times higher than the safe limit).0 Source: Environment Protection Agency (EPA) 140 Fig‐1: Levels of Particulate Matter (PM2.1 Safe Limit 35. emission of brick kilns.0 2.8 3. uncontrolled emission of industrial units. Formation of secondary pollutants like sulphates and photo‐ chemical smog is a very common phenomenon. Lahore 121. The level of PM (particulate matter size below 2.3% 11.5 micron). The main causes of air pollution are abrupt increase in number of vehicles and inefficient automotive technology.000 2. use of unclean fuels.1 53.2% 6.000 920.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Table 15.0% 11.400. Table 15. which is mainly due to combustion sources.6% 12. Karachi 53. Islamabad 73.83 120 100 ug/m3 Table 15.000 Access to sanitation (national % age) 42 50 90 44 Access to clean water (national % age) 65 76 93 65 Number of continuous air pollution monitoring 0 4 ‐‐ 7 stations.17% forests/farmlands (% age of total land area) Area protected for conservation of wildlife 11.2: Average Suspended Particulate Matter (PM2. of petrol & diesel vehicles using CNG fuel 380.000 800. Motorcycles and rickshaws. due to their two stroke 222 published by Accountancy (www.1: The MTDF 2005‐10 and MDG’s Targets and Achievements Physical Targets of MTDF period Achievement Name of Sector/Sub‐Sector 2009‐10 MDG Targets of Target Year 2004‐05 Targets 2015 Forests cover including State and private 4. 0 3205.4 5469. over 2000‐01 E: Estimated Total 2291.5 55.8 2656. After the successful CNG programme for petrol replacement.0 (000 Nos) Motorcycles/Scooter Rickshaws 2218.0 81. ‐ : Not Available Power 205.8 249.3: Motor Vehicles on the Road Year 2000‐01 2001‐02 2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 (July‐March) Percentage inc.5 34.4 203. The government has planned to offer incentives to investors to introduce CNG buses in the major cities of the country. 3105 CNG stations are operating in the country and 2.3 146. 223 published by Accountancy (www.8 2379.3 5456.0 1.9 2737.9 2882. Rickshaws have grown by more than 34.) E : Estimated.1 2963.3) Table 15.1 2607.3 164.0 88.8 4542.5 1.1 2589.Environment engines. Use of CNG as fuel in transport sector has observed a quantum leap./dec.0 3906.accountancy.1 (000 M/Tons) Brick Kilns Household 2837. there has been reduction in coal usage for domestic purposes (Table 15. It may be due to the fact that a number of plants have now been converted to natural gas.4). Table 15.4 1.5 3144.8 79. Presently.9 179.9 149.8 ‐ 3277.4: Consumption of Coal Year 2000‐01 2001‐02 2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 (July‐Dec.3 5368.3 2561.4 0.2 80.4 1.8 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan Pakistan has become the largest user of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) in the world. The two wheeler industry is performing very fast in Pakistan and it has increased by 143.0 percent in 2009‐10 when compared with the year 2000‐01.6 97.7 1.4 percent while motorcycles and scooters have more than doubled over the ten years.0 3760.com.0 5037.pk) .9 1.0 3063.2 143.5 3791. as per the statistics issued by International Association of National Gas Vehicles on CNG. replacing traditional fuels and has helped a lot in lowering the pollution load in many urban centers. (see Table 15.5 81.4 million vehicles are using CNG as fuel (see Table 15.4 5567.8 5126.1 0.9 72. are the most inefficient in burning fuel and contribute most to emissions. the government is now looking to replace the more polluting “diesel fuel” in the road transport sector.0 2577.6 184. Likewise.2 112.2 ‐ 4221.0 77. the use of coal in the power sector has been decreasing.2 4463.4 2481.5).4 Source: National Transport Research Centre For the last ten years.0 89.4 162.1 80.5 3868. accountancy.000 2.com. 2005 December.000 150 12 20.pk..000 2.190 1.. Untreaated sewage.000 1. 1999 December. The sou urces of this pollution in nclude uncontrollled discharge es of municipal as well as iindustrial wasstes in water bodies.org The Moto or Vehicle Exxaminers (MV VE) have no facilities to scientifically check fitnesss or emissio ons of vehicles.. reeduction in fish biodiversiity and eco populatio on and damagge to soils and d crops in thee irrigated areeas.7 700.000 218 21 10. IANGV htttp:/ / www.000 360 33 30.000 1.iang gv.)) Converted Vehicles (No. 2 2008 April.000 475 45 50.3 300.pk) . in ndustrial efflu uents.5 5: Growth in CNG Sector As on December.. Indusstrial and Dom mestic sector is shown below as percentage total use.6) and Fig‐2 2. 15. No privatte vehicle und dergoes any m mandatory inspection/emission check. OG GRA.)) 62 60 0. The consu umption of w water in Agricculture.0 050. 224 published by Accountancy (www..760 2. Pollute ed water posses potential risk to public health. 2 2007 February.000 835 1. The majority m of the 8% populatio on of Pakistan n is exposed to the hazard of 23% unsafe an nd polluted drinking waater. The existting water re esources in the country are Fig‐2 2: Consumptio on of Water under th hreat due to t untreated discharge of (Percentage) municipall and industriial wastes to rivers and otther surface water w bo odies. Evven passed veehicle cannott give assurancee of compliance of standarrds. 2003 December.4 400.0 000..2 Watter Pollution Water po ollution has been steadilyy increasing over the yeears.000 633 66 60. High incidence of water bo orne diseases can directlyy be attributted to pollu uted A Agriculture Industry Domestic uses waters in lakes.com. and aggricultural run n‐off 69% are usually released in streams orr drains into the rivers and d sea.Economic SSurvey 2009‐10 Table 15.000 S Source: HDPI ht ttp:/ /www.450 1. 2001 December.000 3..063 1. 2006 16th May. runoff from agricu ulture fields where agrochemical usage has been in ncreasing and d other natu ural as well as anthropo ogenic activities ttaking place iin the catchm ment areas. 2009 CNG Stations (No.105 2. Other imp pacts of high Soure: Ministry of f Environment he waters include i loss of contamination in th osystems.. 2009 9 December. only o commerrcial vehicles are checked by MVE. 2004 December.. At present.4 400.hd dip. 2000 December. 2002 December. (see Table 15 5. birth defects.accountancy. Currently over 65 percent of Pakistan’s population is 225 published by Accountancy (www. Table ‐ 15. deformation of bones and sterility. Since the untreated wastewater is discharged into the rivers and other water bodies. the remaining water becomes “wastewater” containing all kinds of toxic chemicals and biological contaminants. Lahore. About 2 million wet tons of human excreta are annually produced in the urban sector of which around 50% goes into water bodies to pollute them. Treatment of sewage and utilizing treated water for agriculture purposes could be a good option for agriculture country like Pakistan. The long‐term effects on human health of pesticides and other pollutants includes colon and bladder cancer. Due to low oxygen in river waters. miscarriage.pk) . There is no restriction on extraction of ground water for any purposes. Faisalabad (1) and Peshawar (1) have treatment plants but they are under capacity and do not meet NEQS. with 60% of infant deaths caused by water infections. Under this scenario. Capital Development Authority (CDA) has installed a modern wastewater treatment plant in Islamabad which comply with the National Environment Quality Standards (NEQS). Another constraint is non‐availability of locally manufactured cost effective pollution control technologies. People living downstream of rivers. 207 in Sindh and 2 in NWFP). rivers. lakes and sea.Environment After use. Same is the case with treatment of sewerage and industrial toxic waste. Municipal sewerage is a major source of pollution. Industry that has the largest potential of wastewater discharges mostly comprises of textile. About 8% of the total wastewater is treated and rest of the quantity is discharged untreated into different surface water resources like canals. Faisalabad and Multan with the assistance of Asian Development Bank but the projects financing has not yet been made available. This policy aims to provide a guiding framework to address the key issues and challenges facing Pakistan in the provision of sustainable access to safe drinking water. conservation of water resources does not get importance. the quality of water resources has been degraded. Some Water and Sanitation Agencies (WASAs) have planned treatment plants for Rawalpindi. use this water for drinking. particularly in lower Punjab and Sindh. The most important element is the disinterests of municipal authorities to address this issue. The National Drinking Water Policy has been approved by the Cabinet in order to provide adequate quality of drinking water to the population in an efficient and sustainable manner. Recently. Some treatment plants have been installed by the industries (about 133 in Punjab. About 70% of biological load is generated by textile and beverage industry. lack of cost effective indigenous technology and resource constraint are the predominating factors of not treating wastewater. Environment Protection Agencies (EPAs) are randomly checking pollution levels of industry and municipal waste and filling cases in the Environmental Protection Tribunals. Only three cities Karachi (2). About 9000 million gallons of wastewater are daily discharged into water bodies in Punjab and Karachi. Untreated wastewater from industries further aggravates the situation. tannery.6: Consumption of Water Sectors Percentage Agriculture 69% Industry 23% Domestic 08% Source: Ministry of Environment National Conservation Strategy (NCS) indicated that almost 40% of deaths were related to water borne diseases. According to the WHO report about 25‐30% of all Hospital admissions are connected to water borne bacterial and parasitic conditions. Weak enforcement of NEQS. fish catch has also decreased adversely affecting livelihood of people. Water is not considered as a “precious commodity” in Pakistan as minimal water charges are levied on the treated domestic water or on agricultural water.com. who have no other means. paper and pulp. monitoring and operation & maintenance of water supply systems will be ensured.com. special attention will be given to removing the existing disparities in coverage of safe drinking and for addressing the needs of the poor and the vulnerable. Two third of Pakistan’s rapidly increasing population depends on dry‐lands to support their likelihood mainly through agro‐pastoral activities. information gaps. loss of biodiversity.accountancy. reduction in land productivity. implementation. Inadequate water supply sanitation and hygiene result in high incidence of water and sanitation related diseases in Pakistan. 226 published by Accountancy (www. iv) Recognizing the fact that women are the main providers of domestic water supply and maintainers of hygienic household environment. with bacterial contamination arsenic. loss of soil fertility. The quality of the drinking water supply is also poor.3 Land Pakistan is predominantly a dry‐land country where 80 percent of its land area is arid or semi‐arid. However. sanitation and hygiene related diseases cost Pakistan economy about Rs 112 billion per year over Rs 300 million a day. 15. Moreover there is limited knowledge of consequences and economic implications of land degradation. about 12 percent is dry sub‐humid and remaining 8 percent is humid.1 Out of this. exist with regard to drinking water coverage between urban and rural areas and provinces/regions. 1 Pakistan Strategic Country Environment Assessment (2006). iii) In order to ensure equitable access. the World Bank. and many other associated problems to rapid growth in population is putting pressure on natural resources. v) Responsibilities and resources will be delegated to local authorities to enable them discharge their assigned functions with regard to provision of safe water supply in accordance with Local Bodies Legislation. in terms of health costs and lost earning.pk) . The situation is further aggravated by scarcity of water. and limited institutional capacity to address and degradation and desertification problems through an integrated land management approach. flash floods. Sustainability of the existing water supply systems is also a major issue in the sector. including degradation of dry‐ land ecosystems. water logging salinity. the cost associated with diarrhoeal diseases alone is estimated to range from Rs 55 to 80 billion per year.Economic Survey 2009‐10 considered to have access to safe drinking water. contributing to expansion of deserts. however. their participation in planning . The key principles to be pursued for implementation of the policy are as follows: i) Access to safe drinking water is the basic human right of every citizen and that it is the responsibility of the Government to ensure its provision to all citizens. fluoride and nitrate being the parameters on major concern. ii) Water allocation for drinking purposes will be given priority over other uses. frequent droughts and miss‐management of land resources. which in‐turn increase mortality rates and pose a major threat to the survival and development of Pakistan children. reduced productivity and consequent increases in rural poverty. like many other developing countries dry lands in Pakistan is severely affected by land degradation and desertification due to unsustainable land management practices and increasing demand of natural resources causing enormous environmental problems. It has been estimated that water. Huge disparities. soil erosion. accountancy. drying of aquifers. food. rise in frequency of floods decrease in water retaining capacity of soils. According to National Forest Policy.pk) . 15. inadequate reforestation due to insufficient resources has increased soil erosion and siltation of rivers. timber and lopping for forage. clearing of forest areas for crop cultivation. When forests are lost or severely degraded. increase in soil erosion. cutting of forest for fuel. Source: National Action Plan to Combat Desertification. but also reducing productive potential of irrigated agro‐ecosystems due to water logging and salinity. debris flow and land slides on hill slopes impairing of texture and structure of soil and loss of soil nutrients. National Desertification Control Fund as envisaged under NAP and UNCCD shall be established to ensure continued financial sustainability for SLM interventions at grassroots level. destruction and deterioration of wildlife resulting in lower number of wild animals and birds.7: Causes and Effects of Land Degradation in Barani (Rain‐Fed) Lands Causes of land degradation Effects and implications Soil erosion Soil erosion results in siltation of rivers. excessive water runoff. less regeneration of natural vegetation due to compaction of soil. their capacity to function as regulators of the environment is also lost. fodder and medicines in addition to opportunities for recreation. by regulating the climate and water resources and by serving as habitants for plants and animals. the sustainable 227 published by Accountancy (www. as land degradation adversely affects natural resource based livelihood of the rural poor. and other services. cover.7). Over‐grazing Overgrazing cutting and lopping of forage trees. Land tenure issues Fragmentation of land holdings.com. illicit cutting of trees for firewood and agricultural implements. strategies and plans. Federal and Provincial Governments have to integrate SLM principles into sectoral policies. aridity in climate. M/o Environment The menace of land degradation and desertification is not only affecting rain‐fed agriculture and pastoral systems. reduction in scrub forest resources/forests.Environment Table 15. Sustainable Land Management (SLM) is now considered as a viable option to combat land degradation and desertification. reducing soil fertility and contributing to the loss of plant and animal life. Poor management of natural Illegal cutting of trees in forests and watersheds. National Action Programme (NAP) and aligning Pakistan’s NAP with 10‐Year Strategic Plan of the Untied Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) (see Table 15. reduction in water retaining capacity of soil. excessive water runoff. As a result. reduced carbon sequestration. Federal Government shall support provincial governments to combat desertification as recommended under Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). Forests also furnish a wide range of essential goods such as wood. damage to young forest crop and nurseries. irrigation systems and small dams. increasing floods and erosion hazards. Appropriate incentives shall be designed to enlist the participation of local communities in sustainable management of land resources. competition with livestock for forages and space. disturbance or compaction of soil. Reduction in wildlife habitat quality and quantity.4 Forestry Forests are crucial for the well being of humanity. Forests are under pressure due to expanding human and livestock populations which frequently leads to conversion or degradations of forests into unsustainable forms of land use. They provide foundations for life on earth through ecological functions. Sloping cultivation Clearing of forest land for crop cultivation. Weak law enforcement to check theft and illegal removal of vegetation quite evident. Deforestation Deforestation results in excessive soil and water erosion. Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Local Governments for ensuring the sustainable management of their forests and renewable natural resources. enabling them to perform potential functions of conserving biodiversity. farmlands. The Policy provides broad guidelines to the Federal Government. 2009.Economic Survey 2009‐10 provision of goods and services from forests are jeopardized.4 Measures to Enhance Forest Cover Mass afforestation and Tree Planting Campaigns Two inter‐provincial meetings to finalize the targets and strategies for the monsoon and spring tree planting campaigns were held under the chairmanship of the Minister for Environment. The Federal Forestry Board develops policies and strategies related to the Forestry Sector and also monitor the activities of the Provincial Forest Departments including the forest cover This Board comprises the representatives from the Provincial Forest Departments. three hundred planters from the local communities planted 541. Achievement of the Vision 2030 on forest biodiversity conservation is a combined responsibility of all forest stakeholders. Provincial Governments.accountancy.96 million trees were planted in spring and monsoon seasons respectively.7% by the year 2011 and 6% by the year 2015. private lands and municipal lands. boat making and furniture industry in the country. Pakistan is committed to increase forest cover from existing 5. matches. There is need to increase the area under tree cover not only to meet the material needs of the growing population but also to enhance the environmental and ecological services provided by the forest. Guinness World Record Pakistan has set a new Guinness World Record in maximum tree planting during 24 hours on July 15. During the tree planting campaign 55. National Forest Policy Ministry of Environment is in process of formulating the National Forest Policy 2010 to provide a broad framework for addressing issues of forests and renewable natural resources of Pakistan and their sustainable development for the maintenance and rehabilitation of environment and enhancement of sustainable livelihoods. sports goods.051 million hectares area has to be brought under forest cover by 2015. An increase of one percent implies that an additional 1. Gilgit‐Baltistan. This will include all state lands. AJK.77 million and 35. 15. The existing forest resources are under severe pressure to meet the fuel wood and timber needs of the country and wood based industries including housing. NGO’s progressive gamers and other stakeholders National Vision 2030 By 2030 the country will be managing all types of forests on ecosystem approach.pk) .176 propagules of mangrove trees on 796 acres on an island at Keti Bundar in the Indus Detta.com. communal lands.2% to 5. National Tree Planting Day Prime Minister of Pakistan declared 18th August as National Tree Planting Day (NTPD). meeting national demands for wood and contributing positively to mitigate global environmental problems. The objective 228 published by Accountancy (www. Under Millennium Development Goals of Forestry Sector. providing sustainable livelihood to dependent communities. Pakistan also becomes the regular member of MFF. food security and energy security. However. Already Pakistan is rated as a “high risk” country in the global rankings for Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) 2009/10. 2008. capacity building and for implementation of small and large projects in coastal areas of Pakistan from April 2010. On 18th August 2009 massive plantation was carried out throughout Pakistan with the help of Provincial Forest Departments and Federal line Ministries/agencies. 15. (see 15.8: Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) 2009/10 Rank Country Rating 1 Somalia Extreme 2 Haiti Extreme 3 Afghanistan Extreme 29 Pakistan High Risk 44 Philippines High Risk 56 India High Risk 61 Indonesia High Risk 110 China Medium Risk 152 USA Low Risk 155 UK Low Risk 166 Norway Low Risk Source: Maplecroft 229 published by Accountancy (www. The country’s vulnerability to such adverse impacts is likely to increase considerably in the coming decades as the average global temperature.1 to 6.com. Mangroves for the Future (MFF) Mangroves for the Future (MFF) initiatives focus on the countries worst‐affected by the tsunami. Many private companies have expressed great interest in investing in environmental forestry as part of their Corporate Social Responsibility. which increased by 0.6 °C over the past century. Pakistan joined MFF as dialogue country in 2008 and prepared its draft National Strategy & Action Plan (NSAP) as per requirements of Regional Steering Committee of MFF to become regular member of this regional programme.accountancy.pk) . President Mass Afforestation Programme President of Pakistan has launched a mass afforestation programme on December 22. As a member. is projected to increase further by 1. Pakistan is now entitled to received assistance for institutional strengthening.8) Table 15. Private entrepreneurs are an integral part of this programme.Environment is to address deforestation and associated environmental problems being faced by the national through motivation and involvement of all segments of the society in tree plantation campaign. It is particularly so for Pakistan because climate change is posing a direct threat to its water security.5 Climate Change Climate change resulting from an increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere due to the use of fossil fuels and other human activities has become a major worldwide concern. This programme is spread over a period of five years and shall largely be sponsored by private entrepreneurs for planting trees on state and other suitable lands. MFF will also include other counties of the Region that face similar issues with an overall aim to promote an integrated ocean wide approach to coastal zone management. The 6th Regional Steering Committee (RSC) meeting of the MFF held in Thailand during January 2010 considered the Pakistan’s National Strategy and Action Plan and made it model for other countries to follow.4 °C by the end of the current century. 8 contributes only about 0. Pakistan is a small GHG emitter. leading to reduced agriculture productivity and power generation.832.8% of the total global India 1. and 3.6 4.494.3 GHG emissions. Pakistan’s Status as a GHG Emitter Pakistan’s total GHG emissions in 2008 Table 15.6 °C.9 with 1.3 6. • Rapid recession of Hindus Kush‐Karakoram‐Himalayan (HKH) glaciers threatening water inflows into the Indus River System (IRS).accountancy. Furthermore. 36% Methane.9 share).8 stands at a level which corresponds to about Sri Lanka 13.9 tonnes per capital GHG emissions Pakistan Philippines 79.8 0.4 processes (6% share) and other activities (5% Malaysia China 6. putting it at 135th place in the world ranking of countries on the basis of their per capital GHG emissions.5 °C by 2020s. it is projected that climate change will increase the variability of monsoon rains and enhance the frequency and severity of extreme events such a floods and droughts. in agreement with the global trend. 9% Nitrous Oxide and 1% Australia 437.9 1.8 19.533. It Indonesia 434. one‐fifth of the Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) average for Western Europe and one tenth of the per capita emissions in the US.4 6. Precipitation is projected to increase slightly in summer and decrease in winter with no significant change in annual precipitation.5‐2.9‐4.8 415.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Past and Expected Future Climatic Changes over Pakistan During the last century.8 °C versus 0. Studies based on the ensemble outputs of several Global Circulation Models (GCMs) project that the average temperature over Pakistan will increase in the range 1. 2. followed by the Iran 511. (see Table 15.5 °C).com.3 ‐ 1. average annual temperature over Pakistan increased by 0.9: GHG Emissions (2008) amounted to 309 million tones (mt) of Carbon Countries Absolute Per Capita dioxide (CO₂) equivalent.4 °C by the turn of the 21st century. 230 published by Accountancy (www.9) Major Climate Change Related Concerns The most important climate change potential threats to Pakistan are identified as: • Increase variability of monsoon. on per capita basis.pk) . Precipitation over Pakistan also increased on the average by about 25%. Pakistan 147.1 1. The biggest contributor is the United States 5. reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to glacier melt and rise in snow line.8 °C by 2050s. corresponding to an increase in average global surface temperature by 2. • Increased risks of floods and droughts.4 20. with the temperature increase over northern Pakistan being higher than over southern Pakistan (0.8 other gases.1 7.2 energy sector with 50% shares. • Severe water‐stressed and heat‐stressed conditions in arid and semi arid regions.8 0.4 °C by 2080s. • Increased siltation of major dams resulting in greater loss of reservoir capacity.6 one‐third of the world average.8‐3.5 agriculture sector (39% share). industrial France 162.3 0. comprising about 54% (Million Metric tons) (Metric tons) CO₂. mangroves and breeding grounds of fish . • Development and adoption of new methods for reducing Nitrous Oxide releases from agricultural soils • New breeds of cattle which are more productive in terms of milk and meat but have lower methane production from enteric fermentation • Intensive effort on forestation and reforestation. • New methods of rice cultivation that have lower methane emissions. • Expansion of nuclear power programme. and • Threat to coastal areas due to sea level rise and increased cyclonic activity due to higher sea surface temperatures. Preservation of rangelands through proper rangeland management. increased health risks (heat strokes.Environment • Increased upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta. 231 published by Accountancy (www.com. It also identifies various ongoing activities and planned actions envisaged under the planning Commission’s Medium Term Development Framework 2005‐ 10 and Vision 2030 which implicitly represent Pakistan’s plans and actions towards mitigation and adaptation efforts. adversely affecting coastal agriculture. Main recommendations of the Task Force on climate change are summarized below: Mitigation Measure • Energy efficiency improvement at all levels in the energy system chain. degraded lands. Development of new breeds of crops of high yield. Some other climate change related concerns of Pakistan are identified as: Increase in deforestation.g. The above threats lead to major concerns for Pakistan in terms of its Water Security. Adaptation Measures • • • • • Addition of sufficient reservoir capacity on IRS Rivers so that even during high flood years no water flows down Kotri in excess of what is necessary for environmental reasons. The effort on communicating climate change related information to the intelligentsia as well as the general pubic and raising their awareness of the critical issues should be substantially expanded. Aggressive afforestation and reforestation programmes with plantation suited to the looming climate change.accountancy. mountainous areas etc). The Task Force report recommends a number of measures to address both Mitigation and Adaptation aspects of climate change. Food Security and Energy Security. and less prone to insects and pests. drought tolerant.pk) . pneumonia. less vulnerable to heavy spells of rain. loss biodiversity. • Development of mass transit systems in large cities. rangelands. A Task Force on Climate Change (TFCC) was set up by the Planning Commission of Pakistan in October 2008. resistant to heat stress. malaria and other vector‐borne diseases) and risks to other vulnerable ecosystems (e. • Greater use of CNG as fuel for urban transportation. • Insist that. etc. forestry.6 Public Sector Development Programme. alleviate 232 published by Accountancy (www. natural disaster. Introduction of climate change related scientific disciplines in Pakistan’s leading universities so as to ensure a regular supply of trained manpower. 15. However. biodiversity. • Reject linkage between climate change and international trade. green and capacity building components/sub‐sectors of environment such as: mass awareness.Economic Survey 2009‐10 • • • Capacity enhancement of all the organizations in the country which could make useful contribution towards addressing climate change. • Seek substantial increase in international funding for adaptation and call for new financial and technological mechanism.pk) . fuel efficiency in road transport sector. preparation of land use plan. environmental education and environment protection. • Call to define and establish vulnerability on scientific basis. any cap on GHG emissions should be on a universal per capita level basis and apply equally to all countries. hydrological. 2009‐10 The Government of Pakistan has increased its funds allocation to the Environment and Sustainable Development in its current public sector development programme.accountancy. Overall. projected areas management. environmental monitoring. an allocation of around Rs 5. • Call for deep cuts in GHG emissions by developed countries. agro‐meteorological and other climate change related data to cater for the needs of all relevant institutions. based on the principle of equity.500 million has been made for the environment sector projects in the federal PSDP 2009‐10. create employment opportunities.com. early warning and mitigation. release of funds remained a serious issue during the year due to financial crunch being faced by the country. • Continue to support the position of the G77 and China. • Project Pakistan as a responsible and constructive member of international community and seek access to advanced Carbon‐free and low‐Carbon and Clean Goal technologies. • Strive for the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol. International Negotiations for Future Climate Change Regime Salient recommendations of the Task Force regarding Pakistan’s position in international negotiations for a post‐2012 climate change regime are: • Global temperature should not be allowed to exceed 2 °C. • Seek approval for nuclear power as an admissible Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) technology. and Establishment of a National Data Bank for climatological. • Emphasize adaptation as a key priority for Pakistan. capacity building of environmental institutions. improvement of urban environment. watershed management and biodiversity projects in Mangla and Tarbela Watersheds are underway to reduce sediment load. Many projects including forestry. watershed management. There are about 55 projects under implementation. hospital waste management. which fall in the brown. • Avoid any onerous binding GHG emission reduction obligations on Pakistan. establishment of community organizations.com. to install one plant in each village may be taken up. i. construction of check dams. etc. next phase of the programme. 233 published by Accountancy (www. The tree cover in the country (state and privately owned) has increased by 5.pk) . To achieve the MDGs targets of vegetation cover of 6% by 2015. soil conservation. After completion of targets for each union council.e.17%. conserve the natural resources and rehabilitate the degraded land resources ‐ through nurseries and plantations. Various tree planting projects are under implementation. terracing. Sustainability of these water filtration plants needs to be ensured through compliance of already deliberated operation and maintenance aspects as well as ownership by the provincial/state and local governments.00 billion are under implementation.Environment poverty.accountancy. Installation of water filtration plants in different pockets is underway. 6 projects of forestry resource development costing Rs. 12. Labour Force and Employment 16 Pakistan is the world’s sixth most populous country1.9 3.com.000 400.74 60. Latest estimates are based on recent projections carried th out by the Sub‐Group II on Population Projections for the 10 Five Year Peoples Plan 2010‐15. Pakistan is also a “young” country.1 28.8 3.000 1.7 64.0 Crude Death Rate (Per Thousand) 7.67 109.pk) .82 58.05 Life Expectancy (Years) 63.12 2.accountancy. it is expected that Pakistan will become the fourth largest nation on earth in population terms by 2050 (Fig‐16.000.46 Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 3.51 Urban Population (million) 56. These were officially released after the Statistical portion of the Economic Survey went to print. With an estimated population of 169.000 1.0 65.000 Projected Population(2050) 1.5 65.3 63.7 3.000 800.4 Population Growth Rate (Percent) 2.9 7.07 110.9 million as at end‐June 2009.400.05 percent.6 Crude Birth Rate (Per Thousand) 29. Table 16. 1 Pakistan’s population estimates have undergone a recent revision. Fig‐1: Actual versus projected population.08 2.41 169.10 2. the population numbers used in this chapter will not tally with the Federal Bureau of Statistics estimates used to calculate per‐capita income in Table 1.05 Rural Population (million) 106.600.000 0 CHINA INDIA USA INDONESIA BRAZIL PAKISTAN Source: World Bank With a median age of around 20 years.000 600. Total working age population is 121.1: Selected Demographic Indicators 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total Population (million) 162. 235 published by Accountancy (www.Population.5 Male 62.200.91 166.000 200.7 28.000 Actual Population(2008) 1.1 64.09 107.4 28.01 million.87 63. with the size of the employed labour force estimated at 52.4 Source: Sub Group II on Population Projections for the 10th Five Year People’s Plan 2010‐15.7 63 63. and an annual growth rate (revised) of 2.5 of the Statistical Appendix. It is estimated that there are currently approximately 104 million Pakistanis below the age of 30 years. selected countries Thousands 1.7 7.800.94 173.6 7.6 Female 64.4 63.1). Therefore.1 64.71 million as of 2008‐09. 63 2.86 3. World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.Economic Survey 2009‐10 The proportion of population residing in urban centres has risen to 36%.50 4.92 4. Growth rate of population declined during 1990‐2000 because fertility rate declined rapidly during this period and life expectancy stagnated. less than one percent a year.accountancy.45 5.77 Source. Since 1950.3 to 4.8 children per woman from 1961 through 1987.46 3. currently close to 4. and CDR (Crude death rate).15 3.pk) . (The table above is sourced from United Nations statistics.11 2.98 4. it is estimated that Pakistan's urban population has expanded over sevenfold. an average of 2 percent a year. Pakistan has been a laggard in achieving a breakthrough on this front.1 births per woman by the year 2015.63 5.36 India 5. Fertility rate began by declining rapidly in the decade of 1991‐2000. These show the growth and decline of a population per thousand births while IMR (Infant mortality rate) is the 236 published by Accountancy (www. Fig‐2: Trend in Total Fertility Rate in Pakistan 1970‐2009 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970‐75 1984 1986‐91 1992‐96 1997‐00 2006 2007 2009 Source: National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) based on PDS Survey 2007(FBS) The level of fertility in Pakistan remained constant at 6. population grew as life expectancy increased and fertility rate remained constant. Table 16.8 to about 4. which may differ from other cited figures used elsewhere in the document).44 4 Bangladesh 6.com.30 2. The fertility decline started around 1988 with a reduction of approximately 2 children per woman in each decade through 2000 and later years.61 2. falling from 6.1 Population Overview Population trends are best explained by CBR (Crude birth rate). The draft population policy 2009‐10 envisages to reduce fertility level from 3. the rise from 1998 until 2004 is 28‐33.77 1.89 4.80 2.77 2.80 6. To achieve this contraceptive prevalence rate has to increase from 30 to 60 per cent by 2030.26 4.96 3.89 3.56(2009) to 3.93 2.2: TOTAL FERTILITY RATES COMPARISON (1970‐2010) Country 1970‐75 1975‐80 1980‐85 1985‐90 1995‐ 2000‐05 2005‐10 2000 Pakistan 7. Lately the rise in CPR was from 12 to 28 from 1991 to 1997‐98.76 China 4.01 1. Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of United Nations Secretariat. Despite a gradual decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR).80 1.60 6.67 4. the subsequent decade 2000‐2009 has seen a slowing of the fertility transition with a fall from 4.85 6.8 children.0. 1990‐95 16.00 6. The growth rate is to decline further bringing hope that the demographic dividend would materialize.51 BANGLADESH 23.1 1. The infant mortality rate is also called the infant death rate. Table 16. 16. Labour Force and Employment number of newborns dying under a year of age divided by the number of live births during the year times 1000.3: Demographics of selected countries Births per 1.accountancy.Population.com.300 0. The period of demographic transition when dependency ratio decreased is clearly marked as the demarcation towards lower growth rates and that occurred from 1990 onwards. CBR declined by 20.1 7. CDR & IMR CBR CDR IMR 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Planning and Development Division Growth rates in the above parameters have been fluctuating since 1950.2 Regional Demographics Pakistan does well amongst its immediate neighbours in terms of basic demographics but the growth rate of Pakistan is the highest among the countries under review.1 177.100 1.pk) .9 1.5 1.79% and IMR by 17. in terms of demographic transition.” Fig‐3: TRENDS IN CBR. This analysis confirms the juncture we are at. Fertility and mortality both are on the decline and we have an opportunity to reap the widely acclaimed “Demographic Dividend. CDR by 12.000 Country population population Population million Growth rate (percent) CHINA 12.49 PAKISTAN 25.73% taking the time period from 1999‐2009. Population growth is skewed towards the young and a youth bulge has evolved over time. It is the number of deaths that occur in the first year of life for 1000 live births.2 6.2 1.3 7.27 INDIA 21. All these indicators have improved if we see the pattern from the last census in 1998.1 158.000 Deaths per 1. 2010 237 published by Accountancy (www.8 9.38 Source: US Census Bureau International Database.32%. and even n in the econ nomic boom in Ireland in th he 1990s. r By 20 050 Crude birth rate (CB BR) is expected to almosst half. Thus a larger laabour force is good g for the economy prrovided it is put to use. From a median age of 20 years..pk) . the proporttion of working age population (15–64 4 years) in Pakkistan has reach hed almost 59 9 percent in 2006. The adult “producers” turrn into “depeendants” as time passes. Looking at th he low and h high variants it is believed d that 18 and 27 percent of the population. output perr capita rises. it is projected to increase tto an adult 33 3 years by 205 50 (medium vvariant). While population growtth has a largee and statistically significaant negative eeffect nteracted by aa statistically significant positive effectt from on per capita income ggrowth. compared to o 38 years if tthe fertility deecline is more rapid.Economic SSurvey 2009‐10 16. respectiveely. an nd the rate of o growth of the workingg age popu ulation surpasses that of total populaation.. again. a requiremeent to invest in h health. The mediian age of th he population n in Pakistan started to increase in th he 1990s and d. income an nd savings an nd at old agess there is a n need for retireement incom me and. the respeective impact off the econom mic behaviour associated with differen nt ages also changes. During this demographic d opportunityy. the trend d will continu ue in future. tthe median agge would be around 29 yeears by 2050. The life cycle c consum mption modell suggests that different age groups in i a populatiion have diffferent economicc implicationss. The popu ulation bulge enters and stays in the working age a group. the youngg population is expected tto comprise o only 23 perceent of the country’s population by 2050. with decreeasing fertility leevel. It has been argued that the demogrraphic dividend played a role e in the "eco onomic miraccle" of the Eaast Asian Tigeers. The sh hare of workking age popu ulation will peak p in 2045 to 68 percent before b startin ng to decline again.accountancy. From the cu urrent 38 percen nt. As the e relative sizee of each of th hese age grou ups change in n the population. which w would then h have a bigger proportion of elderly popu ulation. The youngg need invesstment in heealth and education. The appro oximately thrree percent old age populaation share w would increasee to almost 1 10 percent byy 2050 in Pakistaan. with a consequeent increase in i the workin ng age ratio. h rate and th he growth raate of the economically e Combining the populaation growth active population delivers striking results. would co omprise young people by 2050. and is not going to o last foreverr. Crude deatth rate (CDR) will continue to b increasing again after year 20 045. These trends in ferttility and mortality rates iin the country indicate an in ncreasing meedian age of the populattion. according to the mediium variant scenario s of th he United Naations (2005). 238 published by Accountancy (www. Iff the demogrraphic transitiion follows a slower path in the country. The share of o the young agee in the total population w with decreasin ng fertility. This is a time sp pecific windo ow of opporttunity. this eeffect is coun n the share of o the populaation that is economically active. Ass the proporrtion of workkers rises or falls. the reeason being the t growing share of oldeer age population. adu ults supply laabour. Witth the percen ntage share of 52 growth in percent in n the late 80ss to early 90ss. at 16 6 births per 1000 populatio on.3 Dem mographic Divvidend The demo ographic divid dend is a risee in the rate of economicc growth due to a risin ng share of working w age people in a populatio on. This increase would be due to the changingg age decline before structure of the populaation. This occurs when thee fertility rate e falls and thee youth depeendency rate declines. so do opportunitiees for economicc growth. when fertilityy is in the pro ocess of falling towards its final replaacement level.com. w will show a deeclining trend. This occurs o in th he last stages of the phic transitio on. a situation about to o happen in demograp Pakistan. Source: US census bureau International Database 239 published by Accountancy (www.Population. reaching a near replacement level by 2050. Education affects mortality and fertility rates. The decline in dependency ratio can affect per capita output through several intermediate channels. A second channel is through improving the quality of human capital. provision of welfare and policy for the future ageing population. Labour Force and Employment Pakistan is also experiencing a dwindling dependency ratio. It facilitates increased savings and investment. according to the medium variant projections [UN (2005)]. parents with fewer dependent children can more readily afford productive investments.accountancy. at both micro and macro levels. The above discourse boils down to one point: capitalizing on the demographic dividend demands focused policy.com. the number of producers surpasses the consumers secondly savings increase which can make capital more available and thus relatively cheaper. First. Countries can move from being heavily dependent on external finance to a position of relative financial self‐sufficiency. The TFR is expected to continue to fall. Not only the population size but the age composition is also altered by education. and at the macro level resources otherwise needed to support an increasing population can be put to directly productive investments. an open economy. female education can foster a strictly voluntary fertility decline. Flexible labour markets. are essential requirements for the demographic dividend to materialize. While current population and reproductive health policies only focus on the gap between the actual and the desired family size.pk) . At the micro level. The proportion of the elderly in the total population is projected to show a substantial increase after 2025. Reduced dependency ratios mean that the proportion of the population in working ages (15‐64) continues to increase while those in the younger ages (0‐14) decrease. 346 1.878 9.130 9.com.417 Source: World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) database 16.240 7. The term Medium variant means that if the population increase goes at a balanced pace this scenario would unfold.926 4.446 15‐19 9.210 11. Age is the foremost criteria of harnessing the potential of economic growth through the labour force participation. the ratio of persons under 15 and over 64 to persons between 15 and 64.140 89.133 2.262 211.465 3.120 4.089 11.331 3.513 12.397 229.627 9.662 65‐69 1.932 4.001 30‐34 5.099 7.633 3.077 1.133 12.555 9.e.673 40‐44 4.179 75+ 921 1.587 2.077 6.5 Population Projections Below are the population projections for Pakistan through to 2030. Table 16.796 3.199 1.859 9.897 10.670 117.349 4. 240 published by Accountancy (www.911 3.271 1.459 9.047 9.035 2. Constant fertility variant describes stable fertility change. High and low variant mean if the change occurs at a high fertility or a low fertility pace. The ratio will continue to decline for several more years to beyond 2030.617 35‐39 4.849 126.869 5.885 9.Economic Survey 2009‐10 The expansive type population pyramid shown above depicts a greater preponderance of young than old in Pakistan’s population.625 2.958 9.772 173.664 55‐59 2. The dependency ratio has already decreased from 0.631 12.100 1.482 1.729 9.706 9. 16.249 4.992 70‐74 841 973 1.315 TOTAL 80. Pakistan Projection (000s) AGE GROUP 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 155.609 3.084 20‐24 7.543 1.377 246.812 7.767 9. This ratio is an indication of how much of the young population is increasing and that of old is decreasing.272 MALES 0‐4 9.180 10‐14 10.062 5‐9 10.886 12.346 3.86 to 0.711 12.416 2.795 4.655 9.pk) .554 12.354 45‐49 3.536 9. A way of looking at the changes in age structure is to examine dependency ratios. The youth bulge has been described by some as a situation in which 20 percent or more of a population is in the age group 15 to 24 years.428 25‐29 6.042 4.4: Population by Age Groups .341 1.503 12. mainly because of the reductions in the proportions of the population at the young ages of 0‐14.320 50‐54 2.008 7.440 60‐64 1. The youth bulge consists of large numbers of adolescents and young adults who were born when fertility was high followed by declining numbers of children born after fertility declined.763 9. and a continuing increase in the working age population.460 4.429 12.919 7.75 in the fifteen years since fertility began to decline in 1990.796 2.782 2.854 2.801 9.957 6. It is the result of a transition from high to low fertility about 15 years earlier. i.874 108.287 11..155 3.440 9.562 11.936 9.4 Age Composition of Population Impact of changing age compositions has already occurred because of the gradual fertility decline that has been underway in Pakistan since the late 1980s and early 1990’s.770 5.350 12.383 192.047 9.190 98.205 12.161 11.accountancy.637 5. Population. that is. According to base case projections. 5. while the total population increased over four‐fold. For the first time in its history.6: MEDIAN AGE Pakistan Median age (years) Medium variant 2010‐2030 Year Median age 2010 21. World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Age that divides the population in two parts of equal size is called median age.5: Pakistan Population 2010‐2030 (Thousand) Constant‐ Medium High Low Year fertility variant variant variant variant 2010 184 753 184 753 184 753 184 753 2015 205 504 207 325 203 683 207 918 2020 226 187 231 276 221 098 234 354 2025 246 286 255 820 236 751 263 398 2030 265 690 280 054 251 345 294 812 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.6 and 42. crude death rate (CDR) and infant mortality rate (IMR) are projected under this scenario to decline to 21. (2008).70. The crude birth rate (CBR). it is predicted by the United Nations that life expectancy in Pakistan would increase from 68 to 71. the year 2030 will be a major landmark in Pakistan’s demographics.0 2030 26.pk) .5 2020 23. The shift to urban areas is still taking place but is considered to be small as compared to that in many other parts of the world. Demographically. The population growth rate would decrease to 1.2 respectively. Taking five year period of 2010‐15 and 2025‐30. World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision It is believed that the rate is highest when industrialization takes place and the graph shows that in the formative years of Pakistan the rate was high since the urban population had ample opportunities and the trend continued even in the eighties.52.accountancy. there are as many persons with ages above the median as there are with ages below the median age. Table 16. Pakistan is the most urbanized nation in South Asia with city dwellers making up 36% of its population.4. Pakistan's urban population expanded over seven‐fold. and total fertility rate to 2.com. 241 published by Accountancy (www. Labour Force and Employment Table 16.9. urbanization is gauged both in absolute and relative terms as growth of cities within a defined area. While the urbanization rate is 3% (2005‐10).6 URBANIZATION During 1950‐2008.4 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. Dramatic social changes have led to rapid urbanization and the emergence of mega‐cities.3 2015 22. the urban population in Pakistan will constitute 50% of the total. 16.7 2025 25. 7 972.62 1.339.7 Mega Cities Mega cities are defined as having a population in excess of 10 million people or a minimum level for population density (at least 2.09 871.104.730 LAHORE 5. only 29. This is due to the in built momentum of past high growth rates.180 HYDERABAD 1.8 per cent of people lived in urban areas whereas by 2020.49 13.269 RAWALPINDI 1.070 2. Between 2000 and 2005.357 PESHAWAR 982.com.409. More than half of the total urban population of Pakistan (2005) lived in eight urban areas: Karachi.013.58 2.023 5.669 Source: Population Census Organization.529 2.pk) .386. Gujranwala and Peshawar.912.180 204.610. EA Wing 16.876 MULTAN 1.386.214.43 2.132 3.364 5.32 7.954 FAISALABAD 2.816 566.209 3.Economic Survey 2009‐10 Fig‐4: Projections of population in urban areas of Pak (%) (2015‐2030) 2030 2025 2020 2015 0 10 20 30 40 50 Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2009 Most projections are of the view that the rate of urbanization in Pakistan will continue to increase.197.000 persons/square km). Hyderabad.689 3. Table 16.529 QUETTA 565.208. Lahore.166.719 4. Faisalabad.231 GUJRANWALA 1. 242 published by Accountancy (www.894 751.384 732.861 1.834 3.952.132.79 1.993 3. these cities grew at the rate of around 3 percent per year. Rawalpindi. Multan. These mega cities are being agglomerated at a high rate.008.768 794.495 2.29 1.248 3.676. an estimated 57 per cent will live in cities.509 600.643 ISLAMABAD 529.143.accountancy. In 1950.137 285.93 1. and it is projected that this growth rate will continue for the next decade.7: Population of Major Cities of Pakistan CITY 1998 census 1981 census CAGR (%) 2010 KARACHI 9.521. healthcare.46 United States of America 19. they function as centres for the coordination. they are national or transnational marketplaces where firms and governments can buy financial instruments and specialized services. Mega cities are the product of the demands of current economic era. finance and specialized services. Table 16.39 Brazil 11. control and servicing of global capital. Non‐governmental and international estimates of Karachi's population run anywhere from 12 million to 18 million.000 migrant workers coming to the city every month from different parts of Pakistan while the overall rate of urbanization for Pakistan is 3%.95 Philippines 11.16 Brazil 20. with a cosmopolitan mix of different nationalities. transportation.43 China 16. urban expansion can be the key to continuing economic success (McKinsey).65 Pakistan 13. education and recreation will unfold.accountancy. for example.000 inhabitants by the end of the 19th century.63 Source: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision. Many new markets and investment opportunities in. It is believed that economic migrants constitute a vast majority of the Pakistani 243 published by Accountancy (www. The population of Karachi was about 105. Handled well.55 Bangladesh 14. According to Marshall (1890). The city's population is growing at about 5% per year (mainly as a result of rural‐urban internal migration).pk) . Labour Force and Employment Population is not the only distinguishing feature of mega cities.07 United States of America 12.8 Pakistani Diaspora There are approximately 7 million Pakistanis living abroad. the geographical concentration of economic activities can result in a snowball effect.76 China 12. their indispensable functionality is also the case in point. infrastructure. Worker remittances are the second largest source of foreign exchange after exports.67 India 22.26 India 20.12 Argentina 13. A critical number of cities are post‐industrial production sites for the leading industries of our period.Population.04 México 19.8: TOP 15 MEGA CITIES OF THE WORLD IN 2010 Rank Order City 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Tokyo Delhi Sao Paulo Mumbai(Bombay) Mexico City New York Shanghai Kolkata(Calcutta) Dhaka Karachi Buenos Aires Los Angles Beijing Rio de janeiro Manila Population (millions) Japan 36. Workers also benefit from being in an agglomeration as they can expect higher wages and have access to a larger choice set of employers. where new entrants tend to agglomerate as they benefit from higher diversity and greater specialization in production processes.58 India 15. Country 16. including an estimated 45.com. remitting close to US$8 billion annually through formal channels to Pakistan. 0 78. Average remittances per person were US$ 37.9 2.527 1.6 3.0 Major continent of destination for migrants Asia Asia Asia Northern America Asia Asia Europe (%) 91. In Pakistan.2%. They also serve as foreign exchange earnings for the origin countries of migrants.4 95. US$ 5. 244 published by Accountancy (www. Human Development Report 2009.1% of the total population.5 39. compared with the average for South Asia of US$ 33.0 33.11: Emigrants Origin of migrants Afghanistan Nepal Pakistan Iran India Global aggregates South Asia World Emigration rate (%) 10. In 2007.201 370.4 Source.765 Remittances per capita(US$) Luxembourg Sri Lanka Nepal Bangladesh Pakistan India Iran (Islamic Republic of) 3.pk) .3 0.com.355 131 61 41 37 30 16 South Asia World 33 58 Source: Human Development Report 2009. their benefits spread broadly into local economies.262 6.2 1. with 72. which are usually sent to immediate family members who have stayed behind.5% of emigrants living there.accountancy. there are 3.554 thousand migrants which represent 2.998 2. UNDP Most of the world’s 195 million international migrants have moved from one developing country to another or between developed countries.6 3.0 72.10: Remittances Total remittance inflows (US$ millions) India Bangladesh Pakistan Sri Lanka Nepal Global aggregates South Asia World 35.562 5.998 million in remittances were sent to Pakistan. Pakistan has an emigration rate of 2. Remittances.Economic Survey 2009‐10 diaspora. The major continent of destination for migrants from Pakistan is Asia. Table 16.8 1.6 72. Table 16. UNDP The United States is host to nearly 40 million international migrants – more than any other country though as a share of total population it is Qatar which has the most migrants – more than 4 in every 5 people are migrants.734 53. are among the most direct benefits from migration. 9 3.886. Labour Force and Employment Table 16. x Attain a balance between resources and size of population.2 1.245.5 5.9 World 3.e. UNDP 16.accountancy. x Reduce unmet need for family planning from 25 to 20 per cent by 2015. x Promote small family norms.1 2.9 3. x Ensure contraceptive commodity security for all public and private sector outlets by 2015.266. 2.2 13.847.5 5. the draft National Population Policy‐2010 seeks to.1 births per woman by 2030 x Achieve universal access to safe and quality reproductive health/ family planning services by 2030 x Reduce unmet need for family planning from existing 25 to 5 per cent by 2030 245 published by Accountancy (www.0 Source.1 births per woman by the year 2015.0 195. x Improve maternal health by: • • • Encouraging birth spacing (of more than 36 months).062.12: Immigrants Destination of migrants United States India Pakistan Iran Bangladesh Maldives Global aggregates South Asia World Immigrant stock (thousands) 39.0 0. x Facilitate realization of demographic dividend by linking fertility transition process with skills promotion and employment generation policies. x Pursue Population Stabilization goal through early completion of fertility transition.031. x Increase awareness of the adverse consequences of rapid population growth at all level.0 2.56(2009) to 3.Population. x To achieve these goals.com.9 3.4 South Asia 0.4 Destination of migrants Qatar Bhutan Pakistan Iran Nepal China Afghanistan Immigrants as a share of population (%) 2005 80.0 0. Reducing incidence of first birth (in ages less than 18). x Reduce fertility level from 3.9 Policy Initiatives Key Initiatives: To cope with the evolving demographic challenges. and Reducing proportion of mothers giving late birth (ages beyond 34) x Attain replacement level fertility i. the policy aims at the following key objective.554. x Provide access of family planning and Reproductive Health Services to the remotest and poorest areas of the country by 2015.pk) .7 2. Human Development Report 2009. 7 72. poverty alleviation and reduction in unemployment rate.pk) . The good news though is that youth unemployment is below the global average in our country. 16.93 million persons are unemployed. SIZE OF LABOUR FORCE RANK COUNTRY 1 CHINA 2 INDIA 8 BANGLADESH 10 PAKISTAN 33 NEPAL 56 SRILANKA LABOUR FORCE (million) 812.6 percent in FY09.accountancy. 50. The reduction in this gap is desired.7 46. The labour force is growing and the growth in FY09 is greater than that in FY 08. but in FY02 a sharp increase of 8. 246 published by Accountancy (www.79 million are employed while 2.1 Source: CIA Fact book Economic growth contributes to real wage increase. Trends in age‐specific unemployment rates differ considerably for males and females in the labour force.11 Key Indicators In 2008‐09. reaching a low point of 5.5 55. However. as per the latest Labour Force Survey 2008‐09. youth unemployment takes centre stage. Although unemployment among females has historically been higher than among males. It is interesting to note that the triggers to labour demand have been remittances by overseas Pakistanis as well as the structure of economy as represented by ownership pattern of land holdings and control over financial assets. the gender gap has narrowed considerably over time. The gap between the projected female working age population and the projected labour force is likely to increase sharply over time.72 million. unemployment levels remained around 5 percent post‐ 1993‐1999. The rate fell during 2003‐07. Youth should be absorbed productively well before the period when old age dependency threatens this potential. Consider that the labour force is growing every year but the opportunities for employment are declining and that too at a fast rate. the labour force is estimated at 53. both of which have implications for employment.10 Labour Force And Employment Introduction: Pakistan is the 10th largest country in the world according to the size of the labour force.Economic Survey 2009‐10 x Achieve contraceptive prevalence rate from 30 to 60 per cent by 2030 16. resulting in an unemployment rate of 5. The growth in female labour force was greater than male labour force and consequently the increase in female employment was greater. In the labour market the forces of supply and demand jointly determine price (in this case the wage rate) and quantity (in this case the number of people employed).8 percent. then compared to historical trend of 3 percent. There has been a decline in unemployment rate since 2003‐ 04 accompanied by a substantial rise in the unpaid family helpers particularly females. Of the total labour force. With the demographic transition taking place in Pakistan. If we see the unemployment scenario in the past.5 percent.com.7%.8 18 8. Male unemployment has increased in the last two decades whereas female unemployment has decreased. On the basis of a participation rate of 32.2 percent in 2008‐09 it rose again to 5. Employment comprises all persons ten years of age and above who worked at least one hour during the reference period and were either “paid employed” or ”self employed”. the estimated labour force grew by 3.27 percent was seen. e crude and refined.79 Unemployed 3.97 2005‐06 46.78 53.95 47.72 Male 40.11 12.70 35. Refined activity rate is the currently active population expressed as a percentage of the population 10 years and above.12 28.00 46. Employed & Unemployed (2003-09) Indicators 60 Labour Force (In millions) Labor force Employed Unemployed 2007‐08 2008‐09 Total 51.pk) .10 2.33 51.54 0.69 2. Just as crude activity rate.45 2003‐04 42.95 32.com.32 2.50 50.27 2006‐07 47.19 25.06 15.68 2.accountancy.79 1. Table 16.54 1.49 3.09 50. to net in marginal economic activities like subsistence agriculture.44 34.91 Female 10.82 41.62 14.66 1.14: Employment Trend and Changes from 1996‐97 and 2008‐09(million) Pakistan Rural Urban Year Employed Change Employed Change Employed Change 1999‐00 36.12 Labour Force Participation Rates Labour force participation rate is divided into two categories i.96 11.64 Source: Various issues of Labour Force Survey Federal Bureau of Statistics Augmented activity rate is based on probing questions from the persons not included in the conventional measure of labour force. Labour Force and Employment Fig-3: Labor force.09 1.Population.56 26.68 10.81 2.25 0.88 2.95 4. 247 published by Accountancy (www.08 2007‐08 49.81 million 50 40 30 20 10 Source: Labour Force Survey 2008‐09 0 2003-04 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Source: Various issues of labour force surveys. This rate enables international comparison by factoring in the effect of age composition. the refined participation rate also had no major change considering the increase in total population Table 16.55 1. The change is due to female than male and urban than rural unemployment rates.00 3.65 0. FBS Unemployment rate is higher as compared to the last statistics. Employed and Unemployed for Pakistan (in millions) 03‐04 05‐06 06‐07 07‐08 08‐09 Labour Force 45.61 0.05 50.37 14.46 1.77 ‐0.19 0.93 Source: Various issues of Labour Force Survey Federal Bureau of Statistics 16.72 Employed 42.68 14.70 33.78 53.11 0. Crude activity rate is the currently active population expressed as percentage of the total population in Pakistan.65 49.50 3.07 2008‐09 50.48 1.13: Civilian Labour Force.15 13.01 2001‐02 38.22 1. 6 Urban Total 28.2 45.9 Male 49.2 50.5 13.15: Population.1 Source: Labour Force Survey 2008‐09 Population growth and incidentally working age population growth occurred.3 Male 49.6 26.2 71.20 1. Pakistan has the capacity but is there assimilation? Table 16.84 30.9 18.6 Female 14.28 31.3 Female 8.5 69.82 32.01 92.58 88. Indicators 2007‐08 2008‐09 Crude Activity (Participation) Rates (%) Pakistan Total 32.9 Augmented Total 38.pk) .3 Male 66.37 108.05 4.8 34.8 Female 11.0 2006‐07 158.0 14.2 7.5 Augmented Total 42.52 38.2 46.2 2007‐08 160.e in females rather than in males.4 43.97 114.2 45.3 42.40 1.7 37.2 32.3 27.68 0.0 Female 25.accountancy.4 Female 6.23 2.1 35. Status in Employment refers 248 published by Accountancy (www.e in urban than in rural areas and by gender i.4 42.3 43.17 111.33 0.6 43.9 29.1 40.8 45.7 Female 35.6 9.8 Male 49.0 Female 8.2 38.3 1999‐00 136. 16.0 61.5 Rural Total 48.76 116.80 99.3 2003‐04 148.6 66.Economic Survey 2009‐10 own construction of one’s dwellings. Labour Force and Labour Force Participation (LFP) Rates Population (million) Labour Force (million) LFP Rate (percent) Year Total Working age * Total Increase Crude Refined 1997‐98 130.7 2005‐06 155.4 Augmented Total 61. improvement is more according to area i.72 103.64 51.90 29.6 53.0 Rural Total 33.6 Augmented Total 30.4 10. Participation rate suggests fractional improvement across area and gender.6 39.13 Employment by Status Employment by status indicates the position one occupies in the workforce.0 31.8 2001‐02 145.3 Female 19.99 29.9 50. However.1 49.63 52.7 Male 69.8 45.9 Female 36.60 42.8 Female 26.2 Female 50.9 Indicators 2007‐08 2008‐09 Refined Activity (Participation) Rates (%) Pakistan Total 45. according to which there appears to be a youth bulge and Pakistan has a considerable number of the population which is not dependant.6 20.90 32. due to “demographic transition”.20 29.1 Augmented Total 40.39 2.2 Female 17.2 2008‐09 163.7 Source: Various issues of Labour Force Survey Federal Bureau of Statistics *Population 10 years and above is considered as working age population.78 1.39 50.05 39.3 49.7 Augmented Total 53.7 Urban Total 38.8 49.45 32.2 Male 71.com.40 45.79 50. Self employment increased in 2008‐09. Unpaid family worker is a person who works without pay in cash or in kind on and enterprise operated by a member of his /her household or other related persons.48 49. Labour Force and Employment to the type of explicit or implicit contract of employment of the person with other persons or organization.7 39.2 1.75 12.e decrease in the comparative profiles of employees and self‐employed workers while increase in the case of employers. on own‐account or with one or a few partners at a “self‐employment job” with one or more employees engaged on a continuous basis.0 22. Paid worker by work performed.94 14. Self‐employment job is a job where the remuneration is directly dependent upon the profits. derived from the goods and services produced. Status of an economically active individual is with respect to his employment. Employees are divided into: Regular paid employees with fixed wage.9 Self employed 34.78 34.12 0.45 1.66 Total 49. commission.0 35.2 Unpaid family Helpers 28.7 13.1 33.2 65.0 (%) 2008‐09 Total Male Female 1.0 100.62 17.34 0. In the Table 16.13 12.08 Source: Federal bureau of Statistics * Estimated Employment categories are defined and their change during the year is as follows: Employee is a person who works for a public or private employer and receives remuneration in wages.pk) .2 39.com.04 14.70 9.6 19.7 20.17: Employment Status by Sex Total Employers 0.accountancy. pay in kind.8 65.51 1.46 Self employed 16.16: Employment Status by Region Total Employers 0.77 Unpaid family Helpers 14. Table 16.5 0.96 8.20 Employees 17.09 (Millions) 2007‐08 Urban 0.47 12. There is less change in status due to the fact that in Pakistan there is a large informal sector.1 29.0 100.0 Female NA 12. Paid non‐family apprentice.18 9.3 38.0 2007‐08 Male 1. Over the year 2008‐09 employees increased both in rural and urban settings.48 14.86 35.59 12. Employers almost remained the same during 2007‐08 and 2008‐09. Table 16.Population.26 17.06 4.6 21. This reiterates the fact that informalization of our sectors is taking place.8 100.17 can be observed that the self‐employed males have decreased while female self employment has increased. Employment status shows marginal changes i. This category also increased showing that this portion of the workforce is just like the unemployed only worse‐off. Employer is a person working during the reference period. The increase in self employed persons as well as unpaid family workers indicates that activities at the household level are increasing.72 8. or the potential profits. salary.5 100.34 4. Casual paid employee.2 100.0 Total 100.8 39.9 Employees 36.47 0.0 Source: Labour Force Survey 2008‐09 249 published by Accountancy (www. tips.61 2008‐09* Rural Total Urban Rural 0. Unemplloyment rate is the unemployed population expressed d as a percenttage of the cu urrently active population.2 5.7 14. Table 16.9 1.10 2.75 35.09 15.3 11.1 13.79 40. the increease in agricu ulture and relatted activitiess is evident while for other sectors the t figures are close to each other.00 100.00 5.22 2008‐09 Total Male Female 50.8 Services 13.61 28 8.4 4 0.1 37.25 13.59 1.23 Source: Labour Force Surveyy 2008‐09 250 published by Accountancy (www.4 6.18.0 06 25.6 0.92 0.accountancy.97 4. Khyber P Pukhtookhua and the leastt in Balochistaan.6 65 1.66 29.8 13.5 6.14 Em mployment byy Sectors Fig‐4 4: Employed Lab bor force by Secctors (%) Agriculturre was and still s is the largest sector of o the economy but as pop pulation distrribution is on n the verge of change and d 50% of th he people will be residing in i urban are eas emphasiss is going to shift towards o other sectors.66 45.4 43 4.2 0.9 Total 100. Considering Table 16.6 13 A Agriculture Maanufacturing C Construction Traansport S Services Oth hers Sou urce: Labour Force Survey 2008‐09 2 2008‐0 09 Female Total Male e Fem male 75.9 Manufacturing 13.0 0 11.0 07 10.13 2007‐08 Male 39.1 11. o Constructtion shows some s increase while services show decline Table 16.83 1.05 5.73 2 2. It can be seen that employed in ndividuals inccreased in number and so did population.6 8. Bu ut the change e is more pronounced in rural than urb ban area and owes more tto males in Punjab and Sindh h while equivvalently to bo oth genders in Khyber Pukkhtoonkhua aand Balochisttan.95 22. It should be borne in mind that this is in no way cconnected witth unemploym ment rate wh hich increased d during the p period since iit is in percentagge terms and employed to otal is in milliions.3 0. The chan nge in employed d persons is greatest in Pun njab then Sindh .2 27 22.Economic SSurvey 2009‐10 16.48 14 4.2 2 10.0 00 Source: Labour Force Survey 2 2008‐09 Federa al Bureau of Sta atistics mployment byy Province 16.2 6.15 1.19 aand see that tthe employed d total is on tthe rise.4 Others 2.91 Female e 10.3 7. One can gglance at Tab ble no 16.pk) .54 26.68 7.1 6.0 13.66 11.8 Transport 5.97 12 2.3 Constructio on 6.9 0.18 8: Employed Laabour Force by Sectors ( % ) 2007‐08 Sector Total Male Agriculturee 44.19 9: Employed‐ Pakistan and Pro ovinces (m million) EM MPLOYED AREA/PROVINCE Pakistan Rural Urban Punjab Sindh Khyber Pukkhtoonkhua Balochistan n To otal 49 9.34 6.6 13.09 34 4.27 12.3 74.9 9 0.2 2. be itt according to o area or sex.com.04 10.03 8.0 45.6 36.2 0.26 5 5.77 1.69 1.46 9.67 2..00 100.00 100.3 3 100.15 Em The follow wing table givves a comparrison between n FY08 and FYY09 in terms of area and p province.0 13.00 0 100.6 6 0.08 0.7 79 13.3 2.72 10. 93 million of the work force is unemployed.0 100. Mismatch in job and skills as well as the temporary nature of most jobs is problematic.0 Formal 24. Same trend follows according to gender.7 9.2 Source: Labour Force Survey 2008‐09 Federal Bureau of Statistics 16.4 29.pk) . it is on the rise in non‐agriculture sectors as well.3 25‐29 4. Federal Bureau of Statistics Unemployment rate is the unemployed population expressed as a percentage of the currently active population.1 4.8 Informal 70.4 26.5 70.0 100. 2008‐09. while Currently Active Population comprises all persons ten years of age and above who fulfill the requirements for including among employed or unemployed during or unemployed during the reference period i.20: Formal and Informal Sectors‐Distribution of non‐Agriculture workers (%) Sector 2007‐08 2008‐09 Total Male Female Total Male Female Total 100.4 Rural 100. There has been a positive increase of employed labour force in both urban and rural settings.7 40‐44 1.8 72.1 32.0 9.7 Source: Labour Force Survey. Table 16.6 73.6 35‐39 1.5 2.6 70.9 67.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.20 supports the findings that informalization is rising and that it is more pronounced in rural than urban areas.2 27.0 22.9 25. Trade and services in urban small scale manufacturing areas attracted the labour market and enhanced informalization of the urban labour market. Certain segments of the labour market do not give secure employment.4 72. Table 16.2 23.9 76.3 73.0 100.3 2.2 Informal 75.8 7.6 6.7 4.6 1.0 100.21: Age‐Specific Unemployment Rate (%) Total Age Group 2007‐08 2008‐09 10‐14 9.accountancy. however it should be borne in mind that the population increase has been tremendous too.6 55‐59 6.0 Formal 29.0 100.8 67.com.1 74.0 100.0 Formal 27.0 77.2 27. Informalization is not just restricted to agriculture.16 FORMAL AND INFORMAL SECTORS During the past years it is observed that there has been a large amount of informalization in the agriculture sector. Table 16. Unemployment rate has been decreasing over the years.0 100.8 24.6 27.2 32.4 50‐54 3.1 60 yrs & above 12. The share of formal sector employment shrunk from 35 percent to 27 percent in case of males and from 33 percent to 27 percent in case of females from 2000‐2008. males are shifting from the formal sector so are females.8 Urban 100.5 1.5 20‐24 6.2 76.6 Informal 72.17 Unemployment The global economic turmoil has created unemployment around the world and in Pakistan 2.8 76.3 30‐34 2.5 29.5 12.5 29.1 23.Population.5 45‐49 2.0 100. Labour Force and Employment 16. The proportion of unemployed to the currently active population has been 251 published by Accountancy (www.0 100.8 72.e one week preceding the date of interview.0 100.3 15‐19 8.0 100.7 26.5 70. There has been a trend of self‐cultivation and a decline in share tenancy. 0 1. Thus government’s priority is to take the growth rate to an optimum level for job creation. doubling of lady health workers to cover Kachi Abadis.1 1.4 million lower than the stock in 2001‐02.7 1.3 2008‐09 2. In reading table 16.6 6. The specific policies are as follows: b) Accelerating Investment & Economic Growth Economic growth has direct implications for employment.3 8.com. credit is being provided for self employment by National Bank of Pakistan (NBP). which was 0. the unemployed labour force in youth (15‐25 years) was 1. This table confirms the finding that unemployment rate goes down with age and participation increases (unless the age is above 50).9 9. The importance of the fact can be gauged by the initiatives taken by the government such as National internship Program. If the current level of unemployment prevails for the next 20 years.7 9.9 1.8 1. A slight shift in the norm occurred in 2008‐09 when unemployed labour force increased.9 2001‐02 3. and human resource development. restoration of Trade Unions. President’s Rozgar Program.3 8.6 1.2 5.8 6.1 1. Productivity fosters capital‐intensive activities thus causing lay‐off in the short run but in the long run due to product diversification and greater output it causes job increase.2 7.8 2003‐04 3.1 5.6 1. 16. In 2005‐06.7 8.pk) .18 Policy Initiatives a) Employment Promotion Policies The policy focus of government is on creation of decent employment.9 1.1 7.6 2007‐08 2.accountancy.5 4. it is observed that most participation in the labour force is in age group 20‐50.2 4.7 6.1 Source: Various issues of Labour Force Survey Federal Bureau of Statistics. Table 16. 252 published by Accountancy (www. Unemployment rate goes down with age.5 2. Unemployed labour force is almost the same in both areas but unemployment rate is higher in urban areas.22 we have to make room of the fact that most of the labour force is employed in the rural areas thus the unemployment figures are to be seen as a fraction of the whole.9 5.7 2005‐06 3.7 7.22: Unemployed Labour Force by Area Years Unemployed Labour Force (In millions) Unemployment Rate ( % ) Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban 1999‐00 3.4 2.0 5. These steps are helpful in employment generation and human resource development. the stock of youth unemployed in 2030 will be around 6 million.0 2006‐07 2. raising of minimum wage and pension of workers.7 0.2 million.2 6.4 7. enhancement of residential facilities by construction of one million housing units.6 1.0 1. The difference is quite large.3 4. There is a distinction between low‐quality jobs contributing to the increase in the number of working poor and quality jobs so emphasis is also on this aspect of the labour force. Usually it is seen that unemployed labour force decreased during the last decade with the exception of a few years.Economic Survey 2009‐10 decreasing with the exception of 2001‐02 when it increased.5 9. accreditation. Presently. Lahore. i) Skill Development Councils In order to develop skilled labour force on modern lines. Implementation lapses will be focused upon through streamlining the inspection system. disbursed loans amounting to Rs. More than two‐ thirds of the county’s population lives in rural areas and depends directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihood. skill gaps. NAVTEC is giving Rs.000/‐ is given for a maximum period of five years with a grace period of three months for establishing the business. Labour Force and Employment c) Minimum Wage The government has recently announced a raise of 16% in the minimum wages. etc. Being a regulatory body. f) Micro Credit Facilities Through Khushali Bank The Khushali Bank was established to provide loans up to Rs.188 are working in the country and providing technical skill to the labour force. 100. Peshawar and Quetta. The degree to which this increase generates an acceptable living standard for wage earners has to be assessed and the extent to which it has shared the growth in GDP is also to be gauged. It is being planned to produce one million skilled labour per year. The major constraint in Pakistan’s agriculture has been the lack of availability of sufficient irrigation water. Up to 31st December. 9.004 beneficiaries.Population.accountancy. 2000/‐ per month to each trainee during the training course. prioritize them on the basis of market 253 published by Accountancy (www. non‐ availability of proper curricula. inadequate accreditation / certification. e) Credit Facility Through SME Bank SME Bank was established to provide financial assistance and business support to small and medium enterprises. 2009. h) Pakistan Skilling Programme National Vocational and Technical Education Commission (NAVTEC) has been established with a view to over‐coming lack of standardization. a loan up to size of Rs. it is a task to be accomplished in future wage legislation. this Commission will be responsible for long term planning in this particular field.000/‐ each to unemployed people to set up their own business. 1522 technical institutes with an enrollment of 314. Poor quality of instructional staff.1 percent of the country’s work force in 2008‐09.038. Up to 31st December.510 million to 40. 2009 SME Bank has financed 8. the Khushhali Bank (KBL) disbursed loans amounting to Rs. poor infrastructure and to encourage private sector to enhance technical education and vocational training capacity and to bring harmony and develop linkage between technical education and vocational training. 30.299 SMEs. 22. d) Investing in Increasing Water Resources Agriculture is the largest sector of Pakistan’s economy employing nearly 45.891 beneficiaries in the country. Furthermore. It will also be responsible for setting standards for formulating the syllabus. Karachi. g) President’s Rozgar Scheme By National Bank Of Pakistan (NBP) National Bank of Pakistan has developed a full range of products under the president’s Rozgar Scheme with a brand name of “NBP KAROBAR”. Under this scheme.pk) . Labour and Manpower Division has established five Skill Development Councils (SDCs) one each at Islamabad. certification and trade testing.481 million to 2. The SDCs assess the training needs of their geographical areas. the minimum wage fixation will be subjected to a tripartite deliberation process at regular intervals to protect the living standards of the workers and wider dispersal of growth benefits.com. In 2009. In 2008. The allocation of Rs. This would further accelerate the activities in the next couple of years. located in major labour importing countries. the flow of workers abroad reached 600. the flow of workers abroad was over 400.000.Economic Survey 2009‐10 demand and facilitate training of workers through training providers in the public and private sector. Qatar and UAE have been signed while MoUs/ Agreements with several other countries are under Process. k) Information Technology Information Technology has enormous potential to create jobs for the educated unemployed in the country. According to MoU. An analysis of data will be made using internationally recognized Key Indicators for Labour Market (KILMs).accountancy.pk) . Pakistan will send its workers to South Korea on regular basis. Boosting of overseas employment may be helpful in reducing pressure on job market. under‐employment and unemployment at national. j) Overseas Employment One factor that allowed countries to reduce poverty and to improve income distribution despite a weak‐ growth‐employment linkage is overseas employment. The development of IT and Telecom sector has created enormous employment opportunities. 2008. which has been an important feature of Pakistan’s experience. In this regard. 3. l) Labour Market Information System and Analysis A Project “Labour Market Information System and Analysis” has been launched in the HRD Wing of the Labour and Manpower Division. The increase in overseas migration is the result of revolutionary steps taken by the Government for the export of manpower. Export of manpower is undertaken by Overseas Employment Promoters (in Private Sector) and Overseas Employment Corporation (in Public Sector). which is a major factor in the increase in remittances. Korea. Community Welfare Attaches (CWAs) have been deputed in all the Embassies of Pakistan. This is one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy. customer services. Manpower & Overseas Pakistanis is making efforts to boost overseas employment. These Council have met the diversified training needs of the industrial and commercial sectors and have so far trained 46.E).674 workers. MoU has been signed with Malaysia for recruitment of Pakistani workers so as to open new job opportunities for a large number of semi‐skilled and unskilled workers MoU in the field of manpower has also been signed between Pakistan and Korea. MoUs/ Agreements with Kuwiat.A. Ministry of Labour. directly or indirectly. for educated unemployed in a wide range of areas like call centres. Malaysia . This amounted to around 28 per cent of the total addition in the size of the domestic workforce between 2006‐07 and 2007‐08. More than six billion US dollars would be earned during the next budget year. First batch of workers left for Korea on 22nd April.30 billion has been retained for this sector. The system will yield regular statistics and information about employment. creating more business and employment opportunities in the country. MoU between Pakistan and Libya in the field of manpower export has also been signed recently. local and regional 254 published by Accountancy (www. finance and accounting etc.com. The objective of the project is to develop and consolidate the collection and usage of Labour Market Data in Pakistan. A separate Overseas Pakistani Division has been established to facilitate overseas workers. for example. to protect the rights of Pakistani workers.000 est. MoU in the field of manpower has also been signed between Pakistan and the Government of United Arab Emirates (U. telecom engineering telecom sales. 1650 million for payment of stipend to internees during the financial year 2008‐09. A total of 71.pk) . 2. The coverage of vulnerable group such as women will be ensured. 25826 applicants were offered internship at Federal. Three reports under the project have been released which have been appreciated by all concerned at national. Raising of Minimum Wages by 16% from Rs. 5. the changes in occupational and sectoral composition of the employed will also be analyzed. working environment and time. Tripartite Monitoring Committees will be set up at district. 16. international level m) National Internship Program The first phase of National Internship Program (NIP) has been completed. Finance Division allocated an amount of Rs. 2008. 6000 of the previous year to Rs. Labour Force and Employment levels. In order to monitor the implementation of labour laws pertaining to wage payments. Divisions. with the following relevant features: 1. Second phase of NIP was launched in February. 6. Departments and Provincial Governments and at District level. 3. Establishment of a Board to review the cases of workers dismissed under the Removal from services( Special Power) Ordinance 2000. 7000 per month. 7.Population. Provincial and District Government levels. Initiation of a comprehensive social insurance scheme on self registration/voluntary basis for all workers and self‐employed in the economy for old age benefits. Contract employees within public sector will be regularized. 4.915 applications were received. as well as. Schools run by Workers Welfare Fund (WWF) are to introduce Matric Technical Scheme for skill development. 255 published by Accountancy (www. enabling the policy makers to suggest policy initiatives for employment generation.19 Labour Policy 2010: Salient features In an effort to apply principles of social Justice in the world of work. Labour Market information system will be established through creation of Human Resource Centres at different cities. So far 21138 applications have been verified by HEC and NADRA and are being placed in Ministries.com. province and federal level. the government announced a Labour Policy on 1st May 2010. Payment of wages should be made through cheques/bank transfers in all establishments registered under any law. as well as. Changes in socio‐economic and educational characteristics of the employed and unemployed labour force.accountancy. Under the first phase. The government may also issue guarantees as part of Table 1: Contingent Liabilities a cost reduction strategy. The Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation (FRDL) Act 2005 stipulates that the issuance of guarantees.9 1. such as in the case of Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP). • Umbrella guarantees for various loans (SME loans. Explicit Contingent Liabilities: These are specific government obligations defined by a contract or a law. 257 published by Accountancy (www. • Liability clean‐up in entities being privatized • Bank failures • Disaster and relief financing • Failure on other non‐guaranteed funds The Government issues guarantees for public sector borrowers with relatively weak credit worthiness. by taking on risks it is best Issuance As % of able to mitigate or absorb. • Guarantees for borrowing and obligations of provincial governments and public or private entities. explicit or implicit. hence any creditor to the entity has full recourse to the government. Contingent liabilities can be both explicit and implicit as discussed in the framework below. explicit and implicit guarantees issued to Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) and unfunded losses of state owned entities such as Pakistan Steel Mill.2 holistic view of a country’s fiscal position and unveil FY10* the hidden risks associated with the obligations made * : July 2009‐April 2010 Source: Budget Wing & EF Wing. Hence. MoF by the government outside the budget. However. but must be given adequate disclosure. PEPCO. for instance.Contingent Liabilities 1 Annex Contingent liabilities are possible future liabilities that will only become certain on the occurrence of some future event. the government has 100% ownership. The government is legally mandated to settle such an obligation when it becomes due.6 138. PIA.com.2 transactions can not be overlooked in order to gain a 177.4 guarantees.8 1. Contingent liabilities are not shown in the balance sheet.pk) . Billions) costs associated with the provision of government FY07 140. which may materialize in future. reported debt levels of a sovereign may be understated owing to the non‐inclusion of guarantees. etc. such off‐balance sheet FY08 FY09 276. but based on public expectations and political pressures. Railways.3 2. Similarly. In some cases.7 1. In the case of Pakistan. agriculture loans) • Guarantees for trade & exchange rate risks • Guarantees for private investments • State insurance schemes • Defaults of provincial governments and public or private entities on non‐guaranteed debt and other obligations. Implicit Contingent Liabilities: These represent a moral obligation or expected burden for the government not in the legal sense.accountancy. WAPDA. there are also Fiscal Year GDP (Rs. these include. 0 percent of the estimated gross domestic product in any financial year.1 1.0 Dev.0 264. rates of return.com.Economic Survey 2009‐10 including those for Rupee lending.0 7 PARCO 19. 2010 stood at Rs.3 15 PAF Shahbaz Air HQ 16 NIT 17 TIP Total 98. In the ongoing fiscal year 2009‐10.8 218.pk) . As of March 2010. Rs. Since 2005‐06. Co. 258 published by Accountancy (www. bonds.3 billion has been awarded till April 2010 in respect of public guarantees to PEPCO/WAPDA in addition to US$ 248 million of foreign currency guarantees.0 6. No. MoF WAPDA was issued guarantees amounting to Rs. The Rupee guarantees accounted for 52 percent of the total stock. output purchase agreements and all other claims and commitments that may be prescribed from time to time as well as renewal of existing guarantees.5 112. Such a high magnitude of public guarantees may lead to distortions in the domestic yield curve.6 As percent of GDP 1.3 10. 14 Pak Textile City Limited 0.1 1.5 2.4 11 PSO 42. & Mgmt. which accounted for 1.1 140.accountancy.0 13 National Industrial Parks 2. This includes the stock of explicit debt guarantees in both domestic and foreign currencies that appear in the accounting books of PSEs.0 (Rs.739 14.0 1.1 4.5 billion and a rollover of US$ 125 million in the previous fiscal year. 112. billion) FY10* 6.1 Memo: GDP (mp) 8. Organization FY07 FY08 1 PIA 18.0 20.0 12.0 8 PSM 7.0 3.1 billion. 218.8 9 KESC 3. Table 2: Institution‐wise Issuance of Government Guarantees in Domestic Currency S.9 billion have been granted to PSEs. guarantees amounting to Rs.0 10 KSEW 3.1 1. The outstanding contingent liabilities as of April 30.2 percent of the projected GDP for 2009‐10. 642.668 Source: Budget Wing.8 3 AWT 6. A further breakdown of institution‐wise government guarantees in domestic and foreign currencies indicates that WAPDA/PEPCO has been the biggest beneficiary of this provision.0 54.0 6 CAA 4.0 12 Shell 11.0 2 HBFC 9.243 * July2009‐April 2010 FY09 25.5 4 WAPDA 29.0 percent has only been breached in 2008‐09 by 0.0 1. there has been a steady increase in the issuance of contingent liabilities but the threshold of 2.9 5 NLC 1.673 10. and have fiscal consequences. 177. should not exceed 2.3 117.2 percentage points. Table 4: Institution‐wise Issuance of Government Guarantees in Foreign Currency S. 492 billion.0 As percent of GDP 0.8 Source: DPCO In addition to these explicit contingent liabilities. PASSCO.6 billion against the end‐June 2009 position of Rs.5 * July2009‐April 2010 (US$ millions) FY09 FY10* 25.5 0. the outstanding stock of Rs. 2010 Outstanding Guarantees extended to PSEs (total) 642.3 Memo Item: (Foreign Currency US$ Million) 3. Commodity financing is secured against hypothecation of commodities and letter of comfort from the Finance Division.0 Total 699.com.1 451. i.e.6 203. continuing guarantees against the commodity financing operations undertaken by TCP. Billion) 311. 300. 336. As of April 2010.2 Memo: GDP (in billions of US$) 143. Finance Division has issued. their price stabilization objectives. 35. Organization FY07 FY08 1 PIA 692. each year.0 125. MoF Other than the publically guaranteed debt of PSEs.0 2 MINFAL 133. in an attempt to improve their solvency positions. As per previous practice. Billion) 330.7 150.accountancy. there is a need to quantify various implicit guarantees embedded in many government contracts that represent a potentially significant charge on future budgets.0 3 WAPDA/PEPCO 125..6 Source: EF Wing.3 173.0 0.1 ‐ Domestic Currency (Rs.7 ‐ Foreign Currency (Rs.690. 259 published by Accountancy (www.3 0.Contingent Liabilities Table 3: Guarantees Outstanding as of April 30. The quantum of these guarantees depends on the supply‐demand gap of various commodities. Ideally.0 164.0 247. No. advise the PSEs to explore alternative sources of funding.0 4 Ministry of Railways 5 KSEW 7.2 billion indicates a retirement of Rs. the government should restrain from issuing new guarantees in bulk and instead. securitization.6 billion on behalf of commodity financing operations.3 162.0 81. the records of which are being maintained at the Ministry of Finance.pk) . and provincial governments. issuing Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) units. these guarantees are not included in the limit of 2 percent imposed by the FRDL Act 2005. etc.0 339. and domestic and international prices. The government intends to introduce world class warehousing facilities in the near future that will allow the entities involved in the commodity operations to secure financing against the warehouse receipt without explicit guarantee or letter of comfort from the government. volume procured. The limit sanctioned by the Finance Division in respect of guarantees for commodity operations for end‐June 2010 approximates to Rs. 147. Other Sector and enterprise specific exemptions 17. Income from Certain Trust.409 billion for the fiscal year 2009‐10. Details of estimates of tax‐wise tax expenditure during the fiscal year 2009‐10 have been highlighted below: Income Tax Section 53 of the Income Tax Ordinance.075 2. 2001 empowers the Federal Government to exempt from tax any income or classes of income.910 9.812 8. Board of Education.14 billion. Fertilizer Pharmaceutics etc.accountancy. Profits on Debt/interest from government securities and certain foreign currency accounts/books profit on debt earned by certain non‐residents individuals and institutions 7.534 Source: Federal Board of Revenue Sales Tax Key exemptions of Sales Tax are Tractors.897 19.852 1. Welfare and Charitable institutions non‐profitable organization.com. 6.950 3. Donations and Contributions to Charitable Organizations 0.No.505 46.050 5.517 0. or persons.350 0. in billion) Estimated Revenue Loss S. Tax Expenditure Items 2008‐09 2009‐10 1.pk) .630 4.050 1.025 0.760 21. Universities and Computer Training Institutions 0. Capital gains 18. The cost of Sales Tax exemptions is estimated to be Rs. Export of Information Technology 0. Income from Funds.27.2 Tax Expenditure Annex The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) estimates tax expenditures for 2009‐10 at approximately Rs. The cost of exemptions in respect of direct taxes during 2009‐10 has been reflected in Table 1: Table 1: Income Tax Expenditure for 2009‐10 (Rs.828 0.0540 0.772 0.602 0. Pensions &Gratuity 0.905 Total: 40. Followings are the main exemptions in 261 published by Accountancy (www. Independent Power Producers 0. Exemption from customs duty and sales tax on import of specified machinery.6. dated 6. equipment.6.197 Source: Federal Board of Revenue 262 published by Accountancy (www.1 3. dated 6.6.6. dated 5.50 8. Table 2: Tax Expenditure of Sales Tax for 2009‐10 S.822 18. & Date 1 410(1)/2001. in billion) Estimate Revenue Loss 2008‐09 2009‐10 2. Concession of customs duty on goods imported from Sri Lanka. Some of these exemptions are due to international contractual obligations.036 0.6.No SRO No.No.797 5.2006 7 Others SROs Total: Description Conditional exemption of customs duty and sales tax on temporarily imported goods for subsequent exportation. dated 18.6.282 73.2004 2 3 4 5 570(1)/2005.409 Source: Federal Board of Revenue Custom Customs exemptions are mainly given on raw materials and components.2004 then superseded by 492(1)/2009.117 0.2005 Superseded by 575(1)/2006 dated 5. 456(1)/2004.2004 Superseded by 565(1)/2005 dated 6. (Rs.189 11. machinery and equipment imported by high‐tech. priority and value added industries.pk) .accountancy.754 0.361 28. for manufacture of certain goods (Survey based) General and conditional exemption of customs duty (non survey) Exemption of customs duty and sales tax to exploration and production(E&P) companies on import of machinery equipment & vehicles etc.6.6.555 22.2005 then superseded by 565(1)/2006.335 2. Following is the break‐up of main exemptions in customs duties for fiscal year 2009‐10 [Table 3].Economic Survey 2009‐10 Sales Tax and their cost of exemption during in fiscal year 2009‐10 [Table 2].839 3.2001 Superseded by 1065(1)/2005.2004 Superseded by 567(1)/2006 dated 5. dated 12. 4.6. dated 20. 2.401 5.121 21.7 6.com.2005 6 575(1)/2005.525 2.2006 678(1)/2004.10. import for energy sector projects.299 4.6. dated 12.246 3. 3. dated 6.20 8.5 27. and exemptions to exploration and production companies.2006 567(1)/2005. Conditional exemption of customs duty on import of raw materials and components etc.726 61. in Billion) Estimated Revenue Loss 2008‐09 2009‐10 8. Table 3: Tax Expenditure of Customs for 2009‐10 S.153 11. plant. Sector 1. apparatus and items.612 17. Fertilizer Tractors Pharmaceutical products Others Total: (Rs. 409 73.534 27. Sales Tax 3. the consolidated summary of tax expenditures for the fiscal year 2009‐10 is as shown in Table 4.864 17. Table 4: Tax Expenditure of Federal Tax for 2009‐10 S.accountancy.pk) .No. Type of Tax 1. Income Tax 2.646 (Rs.140 Source: Federal Board of Revenue 263 published by Accountancy (www. Customs Duties Total 2008‐09 40.5 61.in Billion) 2009‐10 46.com.197 147.Tax Expenditure According to the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR).282 119. 5 9.Current Expenditure Defence Interest Payment Others .5 6.0 6.2 10.5 5.4 16.9 14.8 7.8 15.3 2.5 14.5 0.7 4.5 5.8 3.0 9.5 13.7 3.1 13.7 6.Manufacturing 9.7 17.2 10.7 7.7 18.4 16.6 6.2 9.5 3.6 2.accountancy.8 17.8 5.2 5.8 7.4 3.8 18.Private Investment 20.6 7.100 Index .9 17.0 20.6 5.9 .8 4.4 3.5 14.8 12.4 5.7 2.6 17.9 10.6 3.4 15.2 95.Services Sector 6.4 5.0 2.8 .3 10.8 3.3 21.6 4.9 6.9 5.0 5.6 8.9 -10.6 6.1 9.5 5.Aggregate Market Capitalization .6 8.2 15.Monetary Assets (M2) 16.5 4.pk) .2 5.Public Investment .2 90.: Not available P : Provisional # : From 1998-99 onward also includes net lending to PSEs.0 12.Fixed Investment .7 24.2 67.8 75.3 7.2 FISCAL POLICY * As % of GDP (MP) Î Total Revenue 13.Commodity Producing Sector 6.2 31.3 18.2 16.8 .1 17.8 7.1 21.6 4.0 4.0 -2.1 19.6 4.7 10.Private Investment National Savings Foreign Savings Domestic Savings GDP DEFLATOR (Growth %) CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) (Growth %) 3.0 14.5 5.4 9.4 13.5 32.9 6.1 4.ECONOMIC AND INDICATOR 1960's GROWTH RATE (%) (Constant fc) Î GDP 6.2 7.Foreign Savings As % of GDP (Current MP) Total Investment .Domestic Assets 15.0 4.Agriculture 5.1 7.National Savings .9 7.1 8.1 15.3 8.4 - 18.9 6.4 27.3 17.3 6.8 20.8 12.6 17.0 4.5 3.8 14.8 8.5 79.2 44.com.5 3.6 .6 2.6 4.2 3.7 GROWTH RATES (%)(Current MP) Î Total Investment .3 19.8 21.6 10.3 5.9 4.9 As % of Total Investment .5 13.8 1.3 3.5 4.Fixed Investment 14.5 10.5 25.4 15.8 .1 7.5 11.8 3.3 7.1 13.0 9.0 6.8 2.0 9.2 9.1 2.4 4.2 20.4 8. 1970's 1980's 1990's Average (Annual) 2000's 1999-00 2000-01 4.3 16.Non-Tax Revenue Î Total Expenditure 11.7 2.4 R : Revised F : Final * : Budget Estimates for 2009-10 published by Accountancy (www.3 8.0 8.5 17.Tax Revenue .7 2.1 .5 7.8 2.0 .1 1.0 4.1 15.1 13.4 15.0 17.1 2.4 16.8 3.0 3.5 24.8 16.2 7.Development Expenditure (#) Î Overall Deficit 2.7 - 0.3 17.2 4.5 3.6 91.3 10.2 6.8 9.8 4.2 6.8 3.7 17.1 MONEY & CREDIT (Growth %) .5 4.1 17.2 36.2 15.8 7.7 15.4 12.4 4.3 .Public Investment 14.1 .2 -13.KSE .7 17.6 11.3 0.4 24.7 17.3 13.2 15.0 STOCK EXCHANGE (Growth %) . 8 -7.6 4.8 2.3 22.6 3.6 9.4 4.2 15.9 9.2 3.1 48.8 19.9 11.0 9.5 9.6 3.5 6.9 3.0 30.0 38.5 16.4 17.8 -3.2 3.6 7.8 1.5 4.0 0.8 4.2 -3.7 1.9 -1.2 17.7 14.4 2.3 15.0 11.1 2.2 81.1 4.3 11.3 5.0 4.1 14.1 32.4 22.5 22.7 -11.3 33.5 4.9 17.6 15.0 -41.1 3.7 0.0 3.0 4.4 14.5 5.1 2.3 15.1 15.5 3.4 15.6 14.5 4.2 3.8 4.3 10.9 3.1 17.3 20.2 5.5 70.9 4.4 13.1 8.3 -43.5 5.2 4.7 18.0 9.4 7.4 6.6 3.3 14.7 19.1 19.3 14.3 14.4 5.9 41.0 4.7 15.1 4.3 34.8 43.2 83.5 8.6 15.3 14.7 5.4 16.4 6.3 8.4 14.5 107.6 14.5 2.6 34.0 37.4 4.5 38.9 15.0 3.5 16.9 16.2 6.0 19.4 20.3 40.3 123.3 4.0 6.4 15.3 6.7 13.6 4.5 3.8 4.7 4.0 5.3 7.SOCIAL INDICATORS 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 F 2008-09 R 2009-10 P 3.2 2.4 18.9 3.1 0.4 37.6 4.5 5.0 2.3 13.1 4.7 7.7 10.1 55.3 18.7 13.3 10.6 20.1 6.6 4.0 10.8 15.9 18.5 5.3 36.9 4.3 16.9 5.9 11.2 13.3 4.3 22.7 4.1 2.7 19.4 7.5 16.9 5.2 10.1 29.2 18.8 10.1 20.5 15.8 11.8 17.3 16.0 83.2 3.2 -22.2 4.5 13.8 5.0 30.6 32.0 4.2 11.1 3.5 3.6 15.4 2.0 6.0 17.5 110.3 5.7 5.8 3.5 9.0 13.9 7.6 15.6 15.2 10.7 61.0 1.7 13.6 12.7 19.5 19.8 4.3 10.8 8.3 6.6 8.7 -0.6 5.3 23.6 7.2 14.7 19.3 4.4 77.9 15.5 1.2 3.3 13.9 -10.1 -22.1 2.8 (Contd.5 20.8 14.9 5.3 3.4 18.2 7.2 3.6 16.5 20.6 23.9 10.9 30.1 38.1 10.6 7.6 -1.6 10.3 3.2 18.0 20.2 4.8 9.2 19.2 92.3 6.5 11.1 16.7 10.0 22.2 15.) published by Accountancy (www.8 4.3 2.4 7.9 10.1 20.3 18.9 2.0 4.6 4.8 6.8 15.1 17.3 14.4 7.8 1.com.9 16.3 4.9 5.5 5.6 15.7 17.6 3.5 14.3 0.8 12.1 6.2 4.pk) .5 15.5 1.3 3.5 3.7 38.8 91.9 4.4 82.7 8.5 15.6 9.7 22.0 -3.6 8.6 18.6 15.accountancy.7 17. 2 9.8 18.0 3.3 17.8 4. 7.8 0.9 26.0 147.2 3.4 9.6 5.5 - 8.2 - 123.Nos.9 3. Hectares Wheat Production Mln.8 5.1 10.2 -52.7 8.6 6.2 -0.0 105. 5.3 12.6 11.4 487.8 -0.9 1.2 13.5 4.7 2.4 16.0 12.4 292.2 50.0 -1.5 Sugar " 34.5 0.5 12. 3.1 26.8 3.5 Motor Vehicles on RoadMln.6 -0.6 3.9 23.Trade Deficit .4 74.9 20.6 194.pk) .2 2.9 3.0 0.4 8.4 3. .9 385.4 4.4 818.Nos.7 Soda Ash 000 Tonnes 12.0 1672.2 269.7 Jute Goods 000 Tonnes INFRASTRUCTURE Î Energy Crude Oil Extraction Mln.Mtr.9 2.3 12. Tonnes 27.2 22.8 -3.8 22.5 3.4 101.2 55.3 4.3 4.6 248.0 3. Barrels Gas (supply) Mcf Electricity (Installed 000 MW Capacity) Î Transport & Communications Roads 000 Km 70.Trade Deficit .7 3.4 10.3 33.1 - R : Revised F : Final published by Accountancy (www.ECONOMIC AND 1960's INDICATOR BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (Growth %) .9 11.7 21.0 17.Sq.accountancy. Rs Î Manufacturing Cotton Yarn Mln.4 9.2 2.3 4.Exports (fob) .: Not available P : Provisional 1970's 1980's Average (Annual) 1990's 2000's 1999-00 13.6 20. Tonnes Rice " " Sugarcane " " Cotton " Mln.1 -32. Post Offices 000 Nos.9 - 9.4 4.4 16.9 44.6 5.6 5. 0.1 Telephones Mln.2 2.com.7 14.0 4.7 20.6 Cotton Cloth Mln.3 - 255.5 16.0 12.8 1.Nos.9 13.5 2.4 4.3 1.3 248.4 12.8 18.8 3.7 6.3 23.4 1.9 -5.4 17.3 Cement " 10.6 - 279. Kg.1 6.4 8.1 908.0 Caustic Soda 000 Tonnes 24.3 113.2 46.2 5.Imports(fob) . 10.4 -5.5 1884.3 1186.9 22.9 21.4 11.3 11.7 -7.9 60.1 0.4 9.8 165.7 60.5 11.2 763.8 39.3 34.4 11.6 9.0 85.9 13.Private Transfers (net) .4 2.Current Account Deficit COMMODITY SECTORS Î Agriculture Total Cropped Area Mln.Exports(fob) .Workers Remittances .0 17.1 2231.4 Cigarettes Bln.6 15.3 10.9 3.6 3. Bales Fertilizer Offtake Mln.3 1.Imports (fob) .3 47.2 13.1 5.5 2.1 1.3 6.2 33.6 - 20.9 141.1 Fertilizer Mln.0 4.Current Account Deficit As % of GDP (MP) .N/Tonnes Credit Disbursed Bln.1 Mobile Phones Mln.0 435.Nos. accountancy.7 9.9 21.4 21.9 9.8 17.0 104.1 2809.8 9.0 0.3 67.0 3.) published by Accountancy (www.8 17.0 7.7 219.2 15.0 -65.6 221.7 365.7 6.2 17.5 16.0 683.SOCIAL INDICATORS 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 F 2008-09 R 2009-10 P 9.3 4.3 0.8 53.6 1454.8 260.8 23.9 5.2 -10.0 568.1 12.7 137.0 19.1 12.0 490.6 63.0 857.1 21.9 11.4 166.0 248.4 25.9 52.8 19.5 -76.0 119.0 5.7 5.1 20.3 10.8 22.7 19.3 2.0 16.1 6.0 1460.1 4.8 330.4 5.8 3.1 18.2 150.0 4.0 118.9 20.7 12.8 21.4 17.4 23.4 2159.9 215.0 35.8 3.9 2290.8 137.7 251.7 10.5 11.3 75.8 22.6 (.5 88.9 3.9 6.3 -15.4 10.1 4.7 23.7 1.5 992.7 12.6 137.1 51.3 64.3 15.8 31.6 0.4 11.3 3.5 12.5 94.5 21.6 10.6 9.7 233.5 23.7 108.2 24.6 242.0 1.3 187.9 6.7 19.2 8.0 4.7 252.2 762.6 2.2 4.1 10.5 2727.8 2556.9 12.8 23.4 -30.2 1.2 3.9 3.7 -6.9 22.0 5.9 1400.0 23.1 -33.0 49.3 5.0 58.2 14.2 3.6 3.6 23.4 136.1 12.2 6.8 5.1 27.3 -18.3 103.2 28.9 3.4 -10.4 89.2 14.4 365.2 9.6 23.0 4.6 7.8 43.1 1344.5 52.4 12.1 172.6 -8.2 8.3 18.4 97.5 259.0 47.9 1109.9 19.3 38.7 218.8 19.5 13.0 258.0 58.6 13.5 5.0 15.6 1012.4 129.5 4.7 13.8 63.3 13.5 22.8 20.0 6.0 10.Contd.0 582.0 5.9 13.2 31.3 8.8 2.2 1.2 9.5 4.4 17.6 9.2 54.8 12..3 1721.3 3.1 12.2 4.7 -233.6 89.7 3.6 5.8 12.3 5.1 104.6 5.7 168.8 360.8 24.3 903.2 5.8 280.4 49.3 4.7 -0.9 18.4 12.4 6.7 300.9 1.3 259.0 925.9 48.5 318.4 1809.0 19.4 1019.1 13.2 4.2 3.6 1202.2 73.5 3.4 297.4 95.7 1925.3 4.4 -55.7 23.3 206.0 3.5 10.3 164.6 13.0 77.2 19.7 2.2 37.4 19.5 77.5 8.1 2.3 -7.7 44.8 286.7 22.0 12.6 17.5 55.1 -6.4 +1.4 6.0 5.3 21.0 145.7 26.7 12.7 3.4 1016.0 12.0 7.3 3.7 250.3 3.1 8.1 6.6 22.3 12.4 5.2 66.0 2.1 12.9 19.0 3.7 61.6 1413.6 -58.2 923.5 6.com.4 104.9 49.8 19.4 24.5 +3.6 19.4 14.5 44.9 11.4 -222.0 2862.2 +1.1 81.9 18.4 13.0 260.7 13.4 3.4 256.8 12.0 19.9 50.8 6.4 24.0 3.0 1.3 55.4 23.1 22.5 1939.8 0.3 244.2 258.3 5.pk) .6 4.1 34.8 17.1 2.8 259.4 54.9 19. pk) .9 24.0 68.0 18.4 - - 508.6 283.8 823.2 3.7 15.4 47.5 264.5 10.3 8.6 282.2 155.1 2.8 27.4 E - - 11.3 88.6 7.1 59.0 4.7 572.0 3.6 1623.0 28.2 5.ECONOMIC AND 1960's INDICATOR HUMAN RESOURCES Î Population Population Million Labour Force Million Employed Labour Force Million Un-employed Labour Force Million Un-employment Rate % per annum Crude Birth Rate Per 1000 Persons Crude Death Rate Per 1000 Persons Infant Mortality Rate Per 1000 Persons SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Î Education Primary Schools 000 Nos.1 90.5 49.4 1.8 749.8 99.2 - 0.2 18.2 96.5 137.1 42.6 3.8 874.4 612.6 83.7 162.6 0.2 - - 0.0 2.0 5.1 47.5 39.3 122.4 2.6 2. Male Female Expenditure as % of GNP Literacy Rate Percent Male Female Î Health # Registered Doctors (000 Nos.7 9.2 380.5 0.1 107.8 6.5 143.9 16.1 912.2 6.4 7.5 96.7 0.0 18.9 79.6 31.3 40.7 521.4 3.6 28.1 52.accountancy.1 150.1 92.: Not available E : estimated # : Calendar Year P : Provisional R : Revised F : Final published by Accountancy (www.9 1.1 36.3 0.1 15.6 0.9 0.4 55.7 - 3.1 9.8 4.3 11.4 651.5 38.2 6.4 10.0 - - 88.0 2.9 7.0 379.6 12. Male " Female " Middle Schools " Male " Female " High Schools " Male " Female " Secondary/Vocational Institutions Nos.4 3.1 85.2 0.7 .7 243.8 64.0 55.0 2.6 4.7 41.9 6.0 3.0 110.0 25.9 1.8 0.6 9.3 2.5 40.2 33.) Registered Nurses " Registered Dentists " Hospitals Numbers Dispensaries (000 Nos.0 35.0 4.com.6 35.0 6.9 879.6 6.2 235.2 328.6 24.8 0.0 E 32.5 2.9 45.6 58. Expenditure on Health as % of GNP 1970's 1980's Average (Annual) 1990's 2000's 1999-00 - - 96.6 0.7 - 6.) Rural Health Centres " TB Centres Numbers Beds in Hospitals and Dispensaries 000 Nos.6 0.0 0.5 245.6 11.0 1.7 51.0 233.8 29.6 65.4 - 2.6 124.4 37. 1 53.0 4.0 2.3 5.0 328.3 25.7 44.4 9.8 37.7 E 3193.com.0 4.3 26.0 128.0 355.5 20.0 108.pk) .7 56.5 8.6 17.5 52.8 59.8 55.accountancy.3 157.6 24.8 158.6 10.8 0.0 4.3 57.5 147.0 4.2 4.8 94.6 4.7 30.7 51.3 22.0 14.0 228.3 143.0 69.0 E E E E E E E E E E E - published by Accountancy (www.4 15.2 85.0 40.0 62.0 1523.0 42.0 1507.3 68.1 8.5 274.7 28.7 0.6 0.0 2.8 24.0 4.1 7.0 4.9 20.0 1618.4 24.2 20.0 - 747.6 44.6 0.7 5.1 9.2 98.5 45.2 50.2 39.0 419.0 103.9 40.2 48.5 42.5 5.0 368.0 4.5 * * * P P P P P P P P P P 156.9 40.0 - 607.6 0.0 6.4 91.0 67.6 28.0 236.6 289.6 7.7 7.6 14.1 57.6 7.6 41.0 - 3.5 272.4 55.6 293.0 394.6 149.0 3090.7 8.4 54.0 37.0 133.4 40.2 6.0 156.6 73.9 14.7 0.9 16.1 76.7 2.0 83.0 44.7 2.2 103.8 10.2 24.1 152.1 10.0 906.4 92.3 98.4 40.8 28.1 103.0 2.7 5.0 42.6 290.6 49.6 0.0 3.7 20.1 9.1 53.8 20.0 118.6 293.0 1599.0 396.6 0.8 39.6 8.0 93.6 0.0 1540.0 51.4 924.1 22.5 55.0 3.5 60.3 15.8 4.4 4.1 57.0 1653.6 285.6 11.5 28.1 19.9 97.6 0.6 - 624.9 8.8 43.5 97.2 6.7 14.1 7.5 0.6 0.0 149.1 82.6 288.0 5.8 968.0 3159.6 146.5 15.2 166.7 0.0 83.0 4.8 16.7 3.5 13.0 97.0 1.2 876.4 58.5 102.8 64.4 7.5 906.7 0.2 3.9 13.0 2.0 1491.3 63.0 2.6 7.0 65.6 9.0 15.1 28.0 113.0 4.7 0.6 289.0 4.8 163.2 47.3 8.5 69.0 3.0 3125.3 7.4 56.7 99.0 1636.0 1584.0 8.8 155.4 40.2 8.0 123.6 26.5 0.2 26.8 15.0 P 93.0 45.0 1475.6 0.2 54.0 2.7 14.3 48.8 52.2 40.8 27.1 93.SOCIAL INDICATORS 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 F 2008-09 R 2009-10 P 140.1 158.0 239.0 157.1 6.9 50.1 46.0 9.4 97.6 150.9 157.3 5.5 23.9 98.7 0.0 4.0 3059.0 230.4 20.1 916.5 64.0 97.4 43.5 20.6 907.2 P 630.9 101.5 585.3 9.0 3.8 15.0 50.4 6.5 13.8 14.0 69.6 7.6 0.9 155.0 65.2 26.5 161.5 39.1 7.9 65.3 27.7 93.2 945.1 76.2 40.0 14.8 0.0 948.4 46.0 2.1 49.3 8.0 12.2 77.7 93.0 1.0 1.4 12.0 139.0 102.7 919.6 289.