Dry-Bulk

Dry Bulk TradeOutlook November, 2005 Volume 11, No 11 CABI* as at November, 2005 ISSN: 1361-3189 Atlantic Freight Costs Last Month...... 4500 Ore: 4000 Coal: HIGHER!! HIGHER!! Grain: HIGHER!! 3500 3000 2500 2000 Nar vik 1500 Lulea 1000 Tees 500 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 *Clarkson Average Bulker-Earnings Index Phil a del phia Balt im roe Norf olk N. Or leans Highlights Review Review of Baltic Indices. market overview and vessel requirements.....................p.2/3. Iron Ore Australian iron ore exports show impressive growth...p.4/5. Coking Coal Strong growth for Australian coking coal exports in the first three quarters of 2005 ......p.6/7. Steam Coal More strong growth for Indian steam coal imports ...........p.8/9. Wheat & Grain North African wheat imports predicted to rebound ....p.10/12. Minor Bulks Japan likely to break its record for scrap exports................p.13. The Dry Bulk Fleet Nine pages of fleet and freight rate data, plus prices and earnings; fleet forecasts for end 2005...................... p.14-23. Commodity Countdown: The Soybean Trade Shipping Intelligence Network.... "represents a giant leap forward in the information technology development in shipping." Antwer p Por t Car tier Nor th Por t A ntwer p El Aaiun Nouadhibou . Boli a P vr P.O rdaz P.da Madei ra Tubarao Sepet iba Paranagua R. Pl ate Bahia Blanca S a l danhaBay Ric har ds Bay Selection of major dry bulk loading ports Pacific Freight Costs Last Month...... Ore: Coal: HIGHER!! HIGHER!! QH D QHD Vostochny Sewar d P.R upe rt Vanc ouver Por tl and Los A n gel es Long Beach Lianyungang M orm ugao Grain: FIRMER Vi zag Madr as anj ungBar a T P u l auLaut Wei pa Abbot Point H a y Point Gladst one Newcastl e Bunbur y . Kembl a P . Adelai de P Lytt e l t on Port Hedl and Dam pier Join the SIN Club www.clarksons.net S anNi c ol as Huasco Guayacan "With shipping's first 'need to know' information portal, Clarkson has made shipping intelligence better than ever before." Seaborne Trade At A Glance OECD Industrial Prod. & Leading Indicator OECD Growth/Dry Trade Growth % % 9 8% Industrial Production OECD total annual average 6% 6 4% 2% 3 0% -2% -4% 0 Industrial Production Dry Trade Leading Indicator Dry Bulks... Est. 46 96 79 55 49 25 15 174 218 43 800 STEADY STRONG! STEADY STEADY STEADY STEADY STEADY STEADY STEADY STRONG! STEADY 1% 5% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 10% 2% 2,395 6% 2,485 4% 2,571 FIRM.... 3% 1,914 7% 2,007 5% 2,110 STRONG! 5% 448 524 350 174 264 451 556 387 169 260 481 579 407 173 271 519 632 453 179 264 589 660 475 186 273 644 684 493 192 275 185 190 187 205 214 207 214 205 213 208 34 54 31 1,120 2% 39 55 32 1,198 7% 40 55 31 1,197 0% 42 54 30 1,199 0% 50 54 28 1,318 10% 54 52 29 1,347 2% 57 55 30 1,416 5% 59 63 29 1,507 6% 60 66 30 1,618 7% 67 69 30 1,703 5% 36 78 62 46 55 15 12 163 200 33 699 0% 37 80 66 49 56 19 14 166 195 33 714 2% 38 92 66 46 45 20 13 156 189 33 697 -2% 40 93 69 45 45 18 12 158 174 34 686 -2% 36 90 70 46 46 24 12 161 187 36 709 3% 41 92 72 44 46 23 12 164 181 37 712 0% 43 94 74 45 45 23 12 160 186 37 718 1% 45 96 75 48 47 24 13 163 197 46 754 5% 46 90 76 53 47 24 14 166 206 53 776 3% TOTAL BULK^... % Change 1,819 1% 1,911 5% 1,894 -1% 1,885 0% 2,027 8% 2,059 2% 2,135 4% 2,261 6% OTHER DRY... % Change 1,236 11% 1,346 9% 1,368 2% 1,449 6% 1,571 8% 1,593 1% 1,717 8% 1,791 4% Trade Trend Million Tonnes Est. 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 TOTAL DRY... % Change 3,055 5% 3,258 7% 3,262 0% 3,334 2% 3,598 8% 3,652 1% 2005" 46 91 78 55 49 25 15 170 216 39 783 1% 402 466 304 162 247 Total Dry Trade... 2003 7% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 0% 0% 4% 427 458 289 169 226 % Change 2001 STRONG! FIRM.... STEADY FIRM... STEADY STEADY STEADY STEADY STEADY FIRM... 428 454 284 170 229 Sugar Agribulks Fertiliser Scrap Cement Coke Pig Iron Forest Product Steel Product Others MINOR BULKS... F'cast Next Year v. 2006 This Year... 686 706 506 200 281 212 68 69 30 1,771 392 424 260 165 219 % Change 1999 Trade Trend Million Tonnes 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Iron Ore... Total Coal... Steam Coal Coking Coal Grains~... Wheat/Coarse Grain Soyabean Bauxite/Alumina Phosphate Rock 5 MAJOR BULKS 1997 1995 1993 1989 1991 -3 Mar-91 Sep-91 Mar-92 Sep-92 Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 Sep-94 Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 -6% 3,851 5% 4,052 5% 4,308 6% 4,493 4% F'cast Next Year v. 2006 This Year... 4,681 FIRM... 4% Dry Trade Total includes general dry cargo estimate. ~Grain total wheat, coarse grain & soyabean *Forecast; all figures for total Calendar Year. ^Other Dry is dry cargo not carried in bulk, e.g. containerised cargo and breakbulk. Totals include minor producers omitted from table. Clarkson Research Studies Page 2 Nov-05 000 Capesize 70..750/day on November 11. “The aim of the policy is to make the industry globally competitive.... while that for the US deteriorated. Since then.The Market Outlook Bulker Spot Earnings ($/Day) The Market This Month. from $19.1 8% 17% 111.000 40. it has been falling slowly and on November 9 it was down to 4. The country currently consumes about 33kg/person per year. * Supply/Demand: +ve number= ship surplus..118/day on November 4. Since then it has been moving in a lower range and on November 9 it was only 2.4 7% What's that in terms of no. End Year Iron Ore Coking Coal Steam Coal Grain" Minor Bulk ^ Bulk Demand Growth..000 Panamax 50.000 90. Handymax: After being above 19. One year time charter rates for 30.000dwt. Average spot earnings for a modern Capesize slipped to $47.125 on October 14. soyabean ^ including alumina/bauxite/phosphate Fleet in Million DWT and % change yoy..6 7% 21% 2005 74..9% in July. compared with $53. the BHMI followed a similar downward trend.493.. the performance of different regions varied. against the Asian average of 142kg.. End Year Handysize Orderbook % Fleet Handymax Orderbook % Fleet Panamax inc Combo Orderbook % Fleet Capesize inc Combo Orderbook % Fleet Total Availability Orderbook % Fleet 2004 73. o The Indian government has recently approved a new national steel policy which aims to increase production almost threefold in the next 15 years. the BCI hit a recent peak of 5. 70 7 21 9 26 133 2004 13% 4% 5% 3% 3% 6% 56 6 18 2 9 91 2005 9% 3% 4% 1% 1% 4% "incl. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 7..8 8% 349. and thus improve the living condition of poorer Indians. Macquarie Research estimated that the actual industrial production growth (based on PPP weightings) points to OECD growth of 2..962/day on October 14.0 2% 6% 61.. Demand Growth Supply Growth Supply/Demand Balance*. The increase is designed to narrow the gap in per capita steel consumption between India and the rest of the world.” said an official statement. a $1. but also in the areas of efficiency and productivity.5 2% 66. and with upward revisions to the previous month’s data.031/day on October 14. Panamax: Average spot earnings for a modern Panamax vessel slipped to $16.938/day on November 4. quality and product mix. The policy sets a target of producing over 100mt of steel by the 2019/20 financial year.3%.0 7% 23% 82. of Vessels?. not only in terms of cost.000 30. -ve number= ship deficit Clarkson Research Studies Page 3 News for the Bulk Market o The OECD’s composite leading indicator (CLI) showed further improvement in September. Clarkson Shipping Market Index.000 drop from a month ago. On November 9 it was reported as 18.000 60....000dwt bulk carrier was $12. Trade growth in Million mt and % change yoy. with the CLIs for European countries and for Japan continuing to strengthen. FREIGHT COSTS.338.1% y-o-y in August.000 80. up slightly from 1.000 for more than ten days in late October. Nevertheless. $/pd 100.2 9% 87.000 10.000 20.9 7% 120. Nov-05 .041. according to International Iron & Steel Institute figures.. 2005 2004 403 275 329 335 -74 60 STRONGER!! WEAKER!! Supply and Demand growth is in terms of Panamax equivalents Demand growth = trade growth converted into Panamax vessels based on: 55..000t cargoes x 6 trips a year Supply growth = net change in bulk fleet divided by 65. The Freight Indices October – November ‘05 Capesize: After a continuous improvement from August. up from 38mt in 2004-05.. This continuing upturn is an encouraging sign for industrial growth and dry bulk trade.000 Handymax 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Vessel size from CRS Standard as defined in "Shipping Intelligence Weekly". A day earlier the BPI recorded a recent high of 2.874. the sixmonth rate of change in the CLI has now increased for five consecutive months.6 10% 31% 327. 5 148. TOTAL % change 2001 3.3 14.5 126.2 1.9 39.6 5. 2006* This Year.3 20.4 2.1 2. Japan % change Est.8 3.2 1.8 5.9 1.5 4.0 1.America TOTAL S.3 16.3 4.7 162.4 17.1 131.5 178.8 8.7 2. Japan % change P.5 0.2 5.0 126.7 4.1 1.1 7.7 20.8 1.China R.0 124. 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 12. 686 FIRM 7% ^ includes Mexican imports Totals include minor importers omitted from table *Forecast.0 7.1 10.8 5.4 1.3 4.1 8.1 3.3 1.5 1.9 6.2 2.5 1.0 4.4 13.7 1.0 7.America^ Import Trend Million Tonnes 2003 519 8% 2004 589 13% 2005 644 9% F'cast Next Year v.6 128. Belg-Lux France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain UK Finland EU15 Turkey TOTAL W.1 1.8 6.6 134.Korea Taiwan India Pakistan Malaysia Indonesia Philippines TOTAL excl.5 113..7 40.7 1.2 1.2 3.6 14.2 9. 2006* This Year.7 2.4 18.7 9.4 0. Clarkson Research Studies Page 4 Nov-05 .3 1..2 5.6 5.9 1.2 208.0 STRONG!! STEADY FIRM STEADY WEAKER FIRM STEADY STEADY FIRM FIRM FIRM 11% -3% 6% 2% -19% 4% 0% -2% 4% 4% 5% Import Trend Million Tonnes 1998 427 0% 10.9 45.9 15..6 15.0 10.6 16.4 111.9 3. Europe % change Est.7 Total Imports.6 5.3 366.7 134.6 1.5 -9% 5% 18% 22% 10% 20% 28% 20% Est.3 6.7 15.5 1.4 19.3 4.5 38.9 4.3 4. 2006* This Year.3 38.o.5 120.0 4.5 5. 1999 2.5 33. Egypt Libya TOTAL AFRICA Bahrain Iran Saudi Arabia Qatar TOTAL M EAST USA (excl.9 0.3 0.0 1.6 40.8 14.3 41.9 10. 2006* This Year.1 1.4 53.6 2005 4.0 1.4 11.4 1.5 6..8 3..2 13.4 0.5 15.1 6.6 35.5 120.1 6.9 2.5 120.7 17.2 2004 4.3 3.4 11.5 3.3 41.0 10.7 126.3 17.9 43.2 1.6 41.3 4.6 4.0 2.1 117.4 1.7 2002 3.7 F'cast Next Year v.8 122.7 4.7 6.5 3.4 8.4 1.1 2000 3.5 1.6 38.1 11.7 1.5 5.4 4.5 0.4 6.9 135.7 143.8 120.2 7.5 12.2 15.7 1.4 5.6 9.6 3.4 7.8 7.9 10.2 11.6 10.3 329.3 6.5 9.1 1.2 13.6 4.1 44.3 129..9 15.6 147.3 70.0 2. Import Trend Million Tonnes Imports to Others.0 4.1 134.7 20. 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 120.9 16.6 0.2 1.1 11% -15% 7% -11% 5% -1% 3% -2% Imports to Asia.6 1.6 125.0 19.4 7...5 5.6 7.0 2.7 1.7 1.2 6..8 4. 1999 402 -6% 2000 448 11% 2001 451 1% 2002 481 7% STEADY STRONG!! FIRM STEADY STEADY SOFTER FIRM FIRM FIRM STEADY FIRM 1% 7% 7% 0% 0% -5% 7% 6% 4% -1% 7% F'cast Next Year v.0 19.7 19.8 6.1 132.2 11.6 130. 136.3 16.8 274.2 1.1 7. all figures for total Calendar Year.4 1.0 2.8 213.0 STEADY 300.0 7.6 15.7 4.7 -5% -1% 10% -4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 51.3 2.R.4 1.9 7.9 1.7 1.4 5.4 0.0 16.2 2.7 1.6 15.Seaborne Iron Ore Trade Imports to Europe.6 Est.5 6..3 4.9 5.7 15.6 0.3 6.7 1.1 11.2 10.2 14.9 1.4 0.3 108.1 7.8 7.7 16.0 STRONG!! STEADY STEADY WEAKER FIRM STEADY STEADY STEADY STRONG!! 0% 0% 14% 0% 1% -11% 5% 2% -2% 0% 11% F'cast Next Year v..9 0.7 38.7 11.7 1.2 10.7 5.0 92.3 6.2 1.2 15.. 5.0 5..7 3.9 9. Canada) TOTAL N.5 5..3 117.7 121.0 4.5 Import Trend Million Tonnes 1998 2.4 0.0 41.1 16.0 7.9 1.9 3..4 4.9 47.0 1.6 1.0 16.5 7.8 55.5 133.3 0.3 19.0 5.0 7.1 1..6 6.1 263.4 2003 4.1 116.3 1.4 16. Still.1 24.5mt). they believe. all figures for total Calendar Year.3 20. Brazil (38.1 10. making it the largest iron ore mine in Australia.00 Million Tonnes 2000 PACIFIC..0 237.0 451 481 519 589 644 686 1% 7% 8% 13% 9% 7% Steel Production & Capesize Freight Rates. It will raise the capacity of the company’s ports in the Pilbara close to 200mtpy. taking a 25% market share and Brazil exported 5.. compared with around 270mt this year.1 155. ~ Canadian total excludes exports to US. The call follows a meeting of China's top ten steelmakers organised by the National Development & Reform Commission (NDRC) at Baosteel's headquarter in Shanghai. ^ Totals include minor exporters omitted from table. India exported 5.00 2001 2002 2003 Iron Ore News 2004 2005 157.0 21.7mt of iron ore to China in September. Rio Tinto will invest another $690m to expand port facilities at Dampier which will raise capacity to 140mtpy by the end of 2007 from 116mtpy currently.1 165. with progressive ramp-up during 2008. Some $530m will be spent to increase capacity at the Yandicoogina mine of its wholly owned Hamersley Iron subsidiary from 36mtpy to 52mtpy.00 2006* 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0.2 20.0 3.7 14. Construction will begin in December and should be completed at the end of 2007.6 207. Jan 93 Jul 93 Jan 94 Jul 94 Jan 95 Jul 95 Jan 96 Jul 96 Jan 97 Jul 97 Jan 98 Jul 98 Jan 99 Jul 99 Jan 00 Jul 00 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 -5% o Major Chinese steelmakers are calling for the authorities to impose a cap on iron ore imports for 2006.5 20.5 11.Iron Ore Trade (2) Commentary mt 686 700 FORECAST: Trade set to increase by 7% in 2006. and that better order be applied to China's spot iron ore market. The aim of the proposed cap is to squeeze out small and "unruly" steel mills from the market.2 5. Additional rolling stock and infrastructure to support these increased levels of production will absorb a further $113m.0 13.6 160.0 32.7 18. South Africa (7.2% y-o-y in the first nine months this year. The final published figure showed that..5 4.3 17... After discussion. Australia exported 82.7mt in September compared to the record high of 11mt recorded in August.00 0. 0.6 5.^ % change.7 23.1 10.0 68..1mt.3mt of iron ore for a 23% market share.1 16.6 10.0 157.3 46. " Forecast..7 170. Trade Weighted Steel Production Index 250% 200% 15% 150% 10% 100% 5% 50% 0% 0% -50% -10% -100% -15% -150% o Rio Tinto is to spend $1. followed by India (52.7 221.1 17.4 204.9 37. Steel Production Index y-o-y % change Cape Earnings y-o-y % change 40% 400% 35% 350% 30% 300% 25% 20% o According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.00 0. This differs with CISA’s forecast that China will need to import at least 40-45mt more iron ore in 2006. 1999 1998 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 250 o Australia's iron ore exports to China fell back to a more "normal" level of 9..3 27.5 25.6 55..1 75.5 9.5 23..6 11. Clarkson Research Studies Page 5 Nov-05 .4 5.0 184. Australia's September supplies represented a 42% share of the China's import market.. 650 644 589 600 550 519 481 500 448 451 450 427 402 400 348 350 306 321 362 347 358 311 319 300 0.00 Exports. Brazil Canada~ Sweden South Africa Mauritania TOTAL..8 187.4 18. reaching an annualised rate of 237mt.00 0. 0.6mt) and Russia (2. Australian iron ore exports have risen by a massive 15.5mt). steelmakers proposed that iron ore imports not be increased in 2006.93mt. Only after that will proper market order emerge.1 24.4 4.5 16.8mt). in the first nine months of 2005 China's iron ore imports totalled 198.35bn to expand iron ore mining and ship loading capacity in Western Australia. Australia India Peru ATLANTIC. according to China Customs statistics. 1 14..0 0.4 8.5 12.8 3.3 36.6 14.4 6.4 12.6 6.1 13..2 3.5 6.5 3.0 2002 3.1 27.4 13.9 STEADY FIRM STEADY STEADY FIRM 0% 10% 0% -3% 5% Import Trend Million Tonnes 1998 1.2 5. TOTAL % change Est.8 26. 2006 This Year.9 4.9 38.0 7. 1998 1999 4.5 42.3 102.3 1.4 4.9 4.6 5..2 2002 67.4 200 FIRM FIRM SOFTER FIRM WEAKER!! FIRM 7% 19% -7% 6% -32% 4% Coking coal .6 8..3 4.3 162 2000 99.6 17.7 3.6 1.4 15.3 4.8 1.2 6.6 2005 3.5 6. *Forecast.9 12.3 5.8 6.0 121.5 2004 68.5 6.2 5.9 192 F'cast Next Year v.5 20.1 2005 67.3 8.2 6.7 3.8 13. 67.3 39.2 5.3 6.8 8.3 1.1 46..1 5.7 2.9 113.8 5.7 1. Argentina Brazil E.4 7.8 5.2 3. 1999 0.7 41..3 3.3 186 2005 126.3 17. 2006 This Year.2 4.2 10. 1998 169 0% 1999 162 -4% 2000 174 8% Total Exports.0 4.6 110. 2006 This Year..0 12.9 3.5 4.7 5.4 28.7 13.5 20.4 2001 4.1 7.3 4.8 50.6 130.4 0.8 95..5 11.2 1.hard coal with a quality that allows production of coke suitable to support a blast furnace charge (excludes PCI coal).0 1..7 STEADY FIRM STEADY FIRM STEADY -1% 16% -3% 3% 0% * including Romania (see above) Total Imports.5 4.2 19.2 3.0 21.0 20. 2006 This Year.8 1.3 1.4 1999 63.1 3.4 7.9 2.0 27..5 11. Belg-Lux France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain UK EU Turkey Romania TOTAL % change Est.8 0.2 6.6 42.1 102.7 11.0 3% -12% 2000 3.5 2005 1.2 4.2 47.6 4.1 4..3 39. all figures for total Calendar Year.9 0.0 4. Japan India S.9 7.6 9.4 45.9 0..7 3.2 6.1 22.0 6..5 18.0 8. 1.Korea Taiwan TOTAL % change Est.4 6.0 20.5 13..2 5.3 19.5 36.2 9.3 0.8 20..3 18.8 12. Australia Canada (ex US) US (ex Canada) China OTHERS TOTAL Import Trend Million Tonnes 2001 169 -3% 2002 173 2% 2003 179 4% 2004 186 4% 2005 192 3% Est. 1999 92.3 2003 67.1 19.7 18.8 2001 63.Seaborne Coking Coal Trade Imports to Europe.9 2.6 7.5 169 F'cast Next Year v.5 16.5 8. Import Trend Million Tonnes Imports to Others.6 4.4 8.5 42.6 40.5 2002 1.5 4.1 2004 3.7 F'cast Next Year v.2 5. Totals include minor importers omitted from the table.9 3.3 24.4 8. 1998 62.4 21.4 4.1 6.0 20.3 5.7 179 2004 116.6 4.8 45.0 43.8 0.8 0.6 27..6 169 2002 104.0 3.3 6. 2006 This Year.6 3.3 13.9 1.3 4.3 6.0 17.9 -3% 0% 8% -1% 8% 3% 7% 3% Est.0 3.7 1.8 4..9 52.1 0.9 4.9 9.9 STEADY STEADY FIRM STEADY STEADY STEADY STEADY STEADY STEADY STEADY STEADY -3% 1% 7% 0% 0% -1% 1% 1% 1% -3% 1% F'cast Next Year v. 2003 111. Clarkson Research Studies Page 6 Nov-05 .8 6.7 2.8 45.6 17.1 8.1 5.6 27.0 95.8 4.4 10% -7% -9% -2% 8% 0% Imports to Asia.3 39.7 2004 1.9 5.0 6.0 2000 0.9 2003 3.8 8.8 124. 135.0 32.5 3.1 4.0 1.4 5.7 4.2 12.Europe * Iran Africa Import Trend Million Tonnes 2003 1.2 20.0 2000 65.4 F'cast Next Year v.5 25.9 4.7 174 2001 106.4 173 200 FIRM 4% Export Trend Million Tonnes 1998 83.2 2001 0.2 5..9 14..9 5.2 6.0 6.. 67 36. The year-to-date exports were 9. a 1mt decrease y-o-y. Australia exported 60. compared with 0. This means metallurgical coal stocks have jumped by more than 60% from a historically low level of 4. MV = Goonyella. o According to the trade statistics of South Korea.20 China HV 35. i.06mt in September 2004.94 47. with the increases continuing to be driven by Queensland. compared to 52.50-2.7mt hard coking coal.0mt in June.37mt of the same period of 2004. Imports from Australia in the same period were reported as 7.. they require the five Japanese integrated mills plus coke makers Nakayama Steel and Mitsui Mining to take a total of 2.06 41.75mt of coke. coking coal import to South Korea during the first nine months of 2005 totalled 12. o Coking coal export stocks in Australia have risen for the third consecutive month.79mt in 2005 compared with 10. and a surge in exports of thermal coal.10 46.6% of the total coking coal imports..1mt.35 Who's Exporting More?. Out of that exports to Japan reached 2..36 41. Nevertheless. Canadian LV = Elkview.31 Canada MV 40.25 47. down 0. According to the trade statistics of Russia.3mt to 6. China HV = Huaibei. Coking Coal News US$/ton FOBT 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Australia MV 41... China exported 0. The terms of the new contract to begin next April are similar to those of the existing contract agreed in November 2000.50 39..75 48.90 39.38 38.4mt. Canadian MV = Luscar.* o According to Chinese customs statistics.6mt (6.38 46. accounting for 56. up 0. Clarkson Research Studies Page 7 Nov-05 .75mtpy (plus-minus 10% at buyer’s option) between 2006 and 2010. coking coal exports during January to September 2005 totalled 8.53 33.20 36. according to latest ABS figures. which was the highest monthly export volume in 2004.1%) from the same period one year ago. 2 USA May-97 Sep-97 Jan-98 May-98 Sep-98 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 0 * Export Contract Base Price-Historic prices from IEA Contract Base Price for Aust.5mt in September.e. 8 Australia 6 Canada 4 Commentary o During the first three quarters of 2005.75 42. To Japan.50 44. there was a sharp fall from recent high levels of Australia’s monthly exports of high quality coking coal. in September.1mt in the same period of last year. mt/ month 12 10 o Russia's Yakutugol is reported to have concluded a new long-term supply contract for coal from Neryungrinsky K9 in Yakutia in eastern Siberia.Coking Coal Market Long Term Outlook mt 200 200 192 FORECAST: Trade to increase 4% in 2006 186 179 180 174 170 169 165 159 160 154 154 153 154 156 157 169 173 162 160 140 120 100 2006f 2004 2005e 2003 2002 2001 2000 1998 1999 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 80 Contract Prices. This may reflect some fall-off in coking coal demand since port stocks also appear to be rising a little at the same time. in September.8mt in August and a much higher volume of 2.7mt.31 34.5mt. It will supply Japan with up to 3mtpy of hard coking coal for the next five years. Metallurgical coal stocks are up from 6.65 Canada LV 41.6mt (33.6%) from the same period one year ago. 6 28.8 2003 100...4 1.6 9.6 453 2004 108. Import Trend Million Tonnes Total Exports.4 5. India S.7 20.4 25.0 3.0 55.0 65.9 15.7 21.6 1.3 7.3 407 Next Year v.7 72.6 4.2 1.1 3.9 2002 95. % change Import Trend Million Tonnes 2003 105.2 29.4 5.5 1.9 25.3 13.7 10.0 68. Thermal coal = Steam Coal.4 21.4 24. 1998 7.0 58.4 152.1 66.5 6.1 10. STEADY WEAKER FIRM STEADY 0% -8% 6% 0% Import Trend Next Year v.9 6.. % change 2001 6.0 64. F'cast.4 154.7 74.2 0.5 15. STEADY STEADY FIRM STEADY FIRM.. This Year.1 37.6 2.2 12.. FIRM.9 7.3 13.4 126.3 7. This Year.3 11.9 97.8 9. STEADY STEADY 3% 0% -1% 8% 1% 3% -1% 3% Totals include CIS.4 14. "Forecast. TOTAL % change F'cast.5 105. Clarkson Research Studies Page 8 Nov-05 .8 147.4 2006 12.6 293.3 88.3 98.1 39.8 8.8 29.2 151.4 Next Year v.5 49.2 Total Imports.4 149..6 4.8 146.9 5.9 10.1 2002 12.0 50.6 7.1 1999 70. Israel Chile US (ex Canada) Morocco Est.6 3% 169.1 8.2 9% Est. Est.3 1999 9.Seaborne Thermal Coal Trade Imports to Europe..6 5.7 128.2 13..3 14.6 4.. This Year.6 6.1 20..5 Imports to Asia. This Year. Australia S.3 16.3 1.0 5..7 6% 266.4 30.4 18.0 5.1 10.4 1999 79.7 5.9 350 2001 88.8 2006 109.9 24.9 6.3 2. 2005 12.8 5.0 475 Est.1 5.3 128.0 20.3 1.9 3.7 35.9 21.5 9. 2005 493 4% 2006 506 STEADY 3% Export Trend Million Tonnes 1998 83.6 8.4 4..1 8.2 2003 5..8 6.7 9.9 10.9 7.5 65.2 8.7 12.6 3.9 5.1 40. N.4 8. This Year.1 10. F'cast.0 47.8 9..6 1.2 20. STEADY STRONG!! FIRM STEADY STRONG!! FIRM FIRM STEADY STEADY FIRM 0% 15% 4% 2% 44% 9% 10% 0% 0% 4% Next Year v.5 127.8 5.6 387 2003 2004 407 453 475 5% 11% 5% 2002 99.2 6.3 1.5 57.6 24.9 74.3 1..1 1.5 6..0 23.4 5.5 2002 4..3 13.0 6.6 5.6 6.0 8.3 21.6 281.8 9.6 7.4 7.5 29.1 5.1 10.1 16% 211.1 15.4 6.0 60.2 16.0 35.2 26.9 289 -23% 0% 2% -7% 2% 0% 0% 0% -6% 0% 0% 0% Import Trend Million Tonnes 1998 WEAKER STEADY STEADY SOFTER STEADY STEADY STEADY STEADY SOFTER STEADY STEADY STEADY 6% Million Tonnes 1998 9.7 20.4 2000 83.6 12.0 112.7 9% 196.2 20.3 2004 12.4 47.8 127..5 31..5 29.1 41.3 2000 9.7 26.1 14.6 3.8 12.1 7.9 2001 11.8 146.1 66.4 5.1 1999 289 304 2% 5% 2000 2001 2002 350 387 15% 11% 2003 12.4 11.9 71.9 66.1 9% 244.B.9 63.8 7.6 2004 109.2 62.2 21..1 11.8 2005 4.6 155.1 66.8 304 2000 87.9 7.6 7....3 25.5 506 Next Year v.8 9. 2005 108.0 59.5 493 2006 112.9 8.5 44.7 7. Japan.0 65..1 42..1 -2% 2% 15% 12% 0% 21% -1% -1% 1998 66.1 2000 6.9 14..1 40.6 12.7 3.6 8.6 114.9 7.6 1.3 16. 2005 109.0 6.8 3.3 Est..6 95. All figures for total Calendar Year.9 12.5 118...6 9.8 27.7 26.7 73.1 39.1 23..6 55.0 2.1 18..5 4..2 99.0 61.1 10.2 15. F'cast.1 11.2 1. F'cast.5 34.4 1.9 7.7 73.Korea Taiwan China Thailand Malaysia Philippines Hong Kong TOTAL.4 8.4 8.8 10.9 44.9 6...5 2.1 41.5 51.6 3.5 3. 1999 5..1 5.9 5.6 5. Poland & minor exporters.5 2.2 5.4 2.6 5.5 Imports to Others.2 6.3 50.7 2004 4.1 9.Africa China Indonesia Russia Colombia Venezuela TOTAL 2006 3..2 151.0 51.6 31. Belg-Lux France Germany Denmark Italy Netherlands Spain Portugal UK EU15 Turkey OECD EUROPE.3 17.5 10.4 5.7 22.4 7.5 20.5 19.4 45.2 8% 230.5 11.2 5.5 6.6 47.1 2001 91.8 5..9 6.9 44..3 7.7 2.3 35. Xstrata Coal. 2001 34. mt 506 493 500 475 FORECAST : 3% growth in steam coal trade expected in 2006 450 453 407 387 400 350 350 304 284 289 300 260 242 250 201 206 207 216 184 200 159 150 2006f 2005e 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 100 Commentary o Chinese steam coal exports in the first three quarters of 2005 reached 46. 6 3 o October was another strong month for Indian coal imports. VP of China Coal at an industry gathering in Beijing. Kangra Coal.90 51.32 2. the terminal’s shareholders announced on November 2.19 2. according to Pan Wanze..1mt in the 1Q. Contract Prices. Pan said that it was unlikely that most exporters would source coal for export.50 2002 28. o BHP Billiton’s thermal coal production rose to 24mt in 3Q 2005.7mt received. but this is all sold out for 2006.30 146.6mt against around 14.* Steam Coal News US$/ton FOBT 2000 28. o In early November.73 US$/t US$/GJ MCIS Index ^ ^ Index based on Jan 1991 = 100. * Export Contract Base Price .75 3.05 58.5mt on 2004. growing at least 5. Source: McCloskey Coal Who's Exporting More?.4mt. rose to 5.85 54. as the firm accelerated its main South African operations and hit record output levels at its US and Colombian operations. with 3.8mt for the whole of 2004. the second largest month so far this year. Exports during October and November are also expected to be strong on the back of additional buying from Indian end users.90 126.4mt in 3Q 2005. McCloskey Spot Marker Nov-04 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 78. port congestion at Newcastle eased significantly.. compared with 23mt in the previous quarter and 20mt in 1Q 2005. Africa 9 China USA 38473 38292 38108 37926 37742 37561 37377 37196 37012 36831 36647 36465 36281 36100 35916 35735 0 35551 o The Richards Bay Coal Terminal is to expand its capacity to 92 mtpy by July 2008 from 72 mtpy as part of the long-awaited phase five expansion program.NSW Benchmark-6700kcal/kg GAD . mt/month 15 Australia 12 Indonesia S. where BHP is a major shareholder. up from 5.. The cost of the 1 billion Rand ($150 million) expansion will be shared by existing shareholders Anglo Coal.Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook. Clarkson Research Studies Page 9 Nov-05 .75 Australia NSW. China Coal has its own production. which produces all the coal it exports. compared to 29.30 57.00 Spot Prices.. It is believed that total steam coal imports into India in 2005 will exceed 20mt.5mt for the whole of 2004. This brings year-to-date imports to 15.Historic prices from IEA..75 2004 45. with the number of ships waiting to load coal at the port falling to seven from a peak of more than 30 in mid-October. Most of the new additional capacity is expected to go to black economic empowerment companies.04 179.. This brings yearto-date imports to 33.87 132.12 117. At present the only company able to offer coal under the domestic price is Shenhua. according to sources quoted by McCloskey.11 2... They are likely to be no more than this in 2006 and may be less.2mt. Eyesizwe... down from around 73mt last year.75 2003 26. To Japan.. With domestic prices higher than international prices. Steam coal accounted for 2.1mt in October.30 2. suggesting that 2005 full year exports will reach only 60mt. Ingwe.1mt in 2Q and 5. Sasol and Total Coal.. Exports from the RBCT. 1 2. Iran Iraq Yemen Israel Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey TOTAL Import Trend F'cast This Year v.2 12.9 0.8 3. rye.4 Last Year.9 0.9 3.3 0.3 0..3 0.1 4. barley.8 0..0 3.Korea Thailand Vietnam TOTAL 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 160 o The latest Grain Market Report by the IGC suggests that after two consecutive years of good wheat harvests.3 3.3 0.8 3.3 5.4 13.1 3. triticale & mixed grain).Million Tonnes 97/98 5.2 25.4 1.5 3.5 1.9 0.4 97/98 26.3 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 99/00 11..5 2.7 02/03 25.4 0. Crop Year .6 04/05 25.7 2.0 1.4 3.3 05/06 3.6 1. Clarkson Research Studies Page 10 Nov-05 .1mt last year).7 1. WEAKER STRONGER!! FIRM.6 0.Million Tonnes Imports to Mid East.5 2.8 15.7 1..7 5. Grain Trade News… mt 300 F'CAST FORECAST : 1% increase in 2005 280 264 260 264 260 247 240 220 273 275 271 216 220 215 218 229 226 224 221 216 219 205 200 180 Wheat.8 0.6 11...2 4.8 0..4mt from last month.0 1.9 3.1 1.2 6.4 6.3 12.8 3.8 2.7 67.2 4..1 0.7 5.2 1.4 0.1 1.2 34.0 0. Oilseed not included.9mt in last year.9 5.0 29..9 6.4 1.3 27.9 2.9 2. to 3.0 1.1 0.7 3.8 0.7 6.9 13.3 1.Korea Taiwan Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Bangladesh Pakistan Sri Lanka N.1 8.8 6.8 8..7 16.7 1. STEADY WEAKER!! FIRM.1 00/01 8..9 6..2 0.5 25.3 0..2 2.2 3.6 69. 03/04 2. sorghum.5 3.6mt (3. USDA.7 1..6mt.3 8.0 2.3 2. due to smaller crops in Algeria and Morocco.7 3.5 5.8 5.7mt in 2005/06.8 01/02 25.0 0.4 2.2 98/99 3.2 05/06 5.0 11.0 3. STEADY STEADY WEAKER!! STEADY STEADY FIRMER FIRMER SOFTER 0% -42% 7% 2% -2% 4% 0% 0% -67% 0% 0% 10% 9% -4% Import Trend F'cast This Year v.3 0. STEADY STEADY FIRM.9 1.8 04/05 3.6 2.8 6.1 1. SOFTER STEADY STEADY STRONGER!! FIRM..9 2.0 1.8 0. oats.2 0. Iraq is expected to import 3.3 7..1 6.5 12.9 0..9 0.9 1. -2% -5% 10% 13% 7% 05/06 25...7 18.9 65.8 3..6 1.7 0.7 0.5 2.9 66.7 3..8 2.1 28.8 6..0 3.2 14..4 3. Source : IGC.9 5. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to import a similar amount to the previous year.9 3..1 01/02 7.9 3.7 69.7 2.0 8.5 1.3 2.8 0. millet.3 2... STEADY SOFTER FIRMER FIRMER FIRM.9 6.0 0.2 00/01 26.0 1. -11% 33% 6% -6% 1% 0% 67% 3% Grain = Wheat & Coarse Grain.1 2.7 24.8 0.0 13.2 24..7 1. although purchases by Nigeria could reach a new record as consumption continues to climb. especially from the US.6 6.5 68.2 4.1 01/02 4.4 24.3 12.5 3.9 0.0 4.4 32.0 4.4 2.4 02/03 2...6 5.4 12..2 70.5 02/03 4.1 3.2 0.1 1.1 9.1 1.8 0.6 26.6 Import Trend F'cast This Year v...1 73.1 0...1 0.3 1.6 2.7 2.4 2.9 0.7 19.0 0..4 4.9 2.9 5. North African imports are expected to rebound by more than 1mt to 18..7 98/99 3.8 0.5 2.8 10. "Forecast.4 6.1 1.7 3.1 1.1 32.9 0.0 6.4 6.1 3.9 9.8 2.2 00/01 6. The import number for Nigeria was revised. Crop Year .0 0. Totals include minor importers omitted from tables.Grain Imports Long Term Outlook.7 Last Year.8 70. up from 2.4 17.0 0.0 7.. up by 0. (Coarse Grain = maize (corn).Million Tonnes Imports to Asia Japan China S.4 1.3 2..4 1.3 99/00 26.2 98/99 26.8 0.3 2.2 5.3 99/00 9. Crop Year = July/June.5 04/05 5.8 03/04 25.7 0.2 Last Year.5 11..2 3. all figures for total Crop Year.7 1.6 28.6 03/04 8.1 0.3 5.0 0. Crop Year .0 0.9 5.1 0.. Coarse Grain & Soyabean Imports to FSU/Europe CIS of which Russia EU* Other Europe TOTAL 97/98 3.0 1.0 3. reflecting strong purchases to date.1 2. 4 1.1 98/99 193 5% 99/00 212 10% 00/01 209 -1% 01/02 212 1% 02/03 211 -1% Last Year.5 1.5 17.3 99/00 1.0 0.7 1.9 3.4 2.8 1.9 13.2 0.0 14.8 0.... China. 212 STEADY 0% Grain = Wheat & Coarse Grain.1 10..4 1.4 1.Million Tonnes Total Imports..5 4...4 1. 13% 3% 25% 7% 0% 7% 05/06 0.1 28. Egypt Algeria Mozambique Ethiopia Libya Morocco Sudan S.0 35.0 03/04 0.9 0.Million Tonnes Imports to C...2 1.1 18. Brazil Colombia Ecuador Peru Venezuela TOTAL 97/98 6. Crop Year ...7 11.7 0.5 0. millet. sorghum.2 12.8mt in 2004/05.9 1.2 01/02 7. Pakistan and Iraq. Crop Year .6 20.1 27.0 0.3 0.9 17.5 20.3 3.3 17.6 02/03 11.5 1.8 1.9 14.000t cargoes) S.5 2.. triticale & mixed grain).2 1.9 41.0 1.0 0.Million Tonnes 97/98 185 -4% 05/06 6. TOTAL % change 99/00 8.3 6.6 1. (Coarse Grain = maize (corn).8 35.2 0.0 44..4 4..1 3.1 3.0 2.0 3.7 27.8 22.5 Import Trend F'cast This Year v.2 1.7 37.5 1. As a result exports are not expected to grow significantly.2 44.3 10.9 3. Crop Year .6 1.4 2. SOFTER STEADY 0% 5% -7% -1% Import Trend F'cast This Year v. Clarkson Research Studies Page 11 Nov-05 .7 0.0 1.4 2..America Africa Mid East Asia CIS & Other EU -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Panamax Employment in 2005/06 Imports to S.4 00/01 11.0mt. FIRMER STEADY FIRMER FIRM..7 1..4 2.4 0.4 2. in the market year of 2005/06.2 13.0 0.7 4.5 5...7 Last Year. have reduced purchases to such an extent that Australian exports to these three markets during the first quarter of the trade year were down over 80% y-o-y.4 0.Africa Tunisia TOTAL Import Trend F'cast This Year v.0 9.7 3.2 2.7 0..Grain Imports Who's Importing More? Grain Trade News… TOTAL N/C.. Australian wheat exports are likely to benefit from higher production and reduced Argentine competition in Asian and East African markets.0 0..8 04/05 0.America Inc reased P'Max demand in '05/06 by 3 vessels (basis 55.4 1..3 Crop Year ..5 1.0 0.3 2.7 02/03 7.2 1.7 0.. with the IGC forecasting Australian wheat exports at 16. 03/04 208 -2% 04/05 211 2% 05/06 Last Year.2 14..8 11.7 04/05 6..6 0.1 4.3 6.9 18.2 2..4 2..9 13.8 1.7 02/03 0.0 2.5 1.2 7.4 24.4 5....0 0.3 01/02 12.5 1..0 11.5 03/04 6.7 20.9 1.America..3 11.7 2.3 7.4 1.2 97/98 1.5 3.0 0.9 0.6 3.3 98/99 8..2 24.4 0.4 3.6 17.8 00/01 8.America.0 98/99 11.0 0.4 1.4 01/02 1.5 1.5 3.8 1.5 14.0 40.5 0.0 97/98 10.2 13.9 4.6 0..7 98/99 1. STRONGER!! WEAKER WEAKER!! FIRMER STEADY 2% 16% 0% 40% 7% 26% -14% -30% 10% 0% Import Trend F'cast This Year v.9 2.4 0.0 0. rye.7 13.5 0.9 1.1 Last Year.4 43.2 0..2 33.1 05/06 12. this could be offset by smaller purchases in other key markets. STEADY FIRM. up from 15.7 00/01 0.6 20.0 0.6 12.7 04/05 12.7 1. which last year combined to account for a quarter of Australian wheat exports.3 6. 03/04 11..1 28.5 7.7 6. barley. oats..7 3.7 0.7 6.2 99/00 10.9 3.4 0.5 28. STEADY FIRMER STEADY STRONGER!! FIRM. Cuba Mexico Others TOTAL o Although. STEADY FIRM..Million Tonnes Imports to Africa.0 1. 8 102.7 9.2 16.8 4.7 5.1 102.7 20..8 million hectares.9 4.8 82.5 105. shipments of wheat and wheat flour by the five major exporters in 2005/06 are expected to reach 81.8 6.1 7.7 12.1 52..7 4. Australia & Argentina USA 10. down 3% from last month.4 24. 03/04 17..8 56.7 16.8 40.2 1.0 109.0 42.2 80.4 59.000 2.3 8.0 106.7 20.8 14.4 4..6 12.5 5.5 11.. Crop Year .1 5.6 5. Harvested corn area is estimated at 12.0 71..1 105.6 16.3 5.3 13.9 16. FIRM.4 16.2 3. while that for Argentina is reduced to 6.9 24.9 12.5 17.5 23..8 17. STEADY WEAKER!! STEADY STEADY -15% -2% 13% 15% 3% 2% -38% 2% 0% Totals include minor exporters omitted from table.0 136 16.1 212 10% 00/01 24.6 15.9 86.7 6.3 163 3.8 3.0 21.5 155 13.2 8.0 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 13. Source: IGC.1 103.2 22.9 3.5 80.4 52.2 84..9 14.5 5.5 68.2 185 0% 98/99 19.5 41.1 10.4 3.0 18.7 17..000 6.4 86.000 4.0 83.Million Tons Coarse Grain Exporters.9 19.6 10.3 164 6.0 22.7 85.000 EU Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 0 Wheat Exporters.000 o According to the IGC’s Grain Market Report published in late October.0 21.000 8.0 2.2mt.6 83.7 55. but up 12% from last year.0 Trade Trends F'cast This Year v..1 10.4 20.5 13.9 7.5 78..8 82.. Argentina Australia Canada EU USA BIG 5 TOTAL China Others TOTAL % change Trade Trends F'cast This Year v. WEAKER!! WEAKER STEADY 12% -11% 28% 14% 7% 8% -47% -12% 1% Trade Trends F'cast This Year v.0 14.7 17.6 87.4 21.0 174 10..6mt.4 17.4 25.8 71.7 179 7.0 81.6 93. Crop Year=July/June.8 83.0 44.6 101.4 17.1 15.0 15.1 7.0 86.0 21.0mt.9 9.3 15.5 24.8 92.7 10.0 84..6 212 Last Year… WEAKER STEADY FIRMER FIRMER FIRM.0 56.1 14.9 6.3 79.0 105. all figures for total Crop Year.5mt.5 28.Million Tons Total Grain Exporters.2 9.8 81..0 56.3 51.4 16.0 16.0 28. up by 4.8 105.0 27.5 212 1% 18.1 85. Argentina Australia Canada EU USA BIG 5 TOTAL Others TOTAL 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 9.1 101. The US export figure is forecast as 27.. Oilseed not included.5 99.3 25.2 25.4 19. Argentina Australia Canada EU USA BIG 5 TOTAL China Others TOTAL o Brazil’s 2005/06 corn crop is estimated at 42.4 15.7 20..Million Tons 97/98 05/06 7..6 9.6 109.3 74.7 29.7 3.2 9..4 80..9 11.4 22.1 167 4.3 32.2 99.5 86.8 18.9 17.9 17.8 22.1 10. Grain Trade News Monthly Exports '000t Grain Export News… 12.1 10.5 47.7 25.8 26..6 6.9 3.7 29.3 18. down from last year's 85..2 3..6 15.4 10.2 3.6 12. Crop Year .7 211 2% 05/06 22.5 11.2 12. down 2% from last month.7 8.7 45.5mt from last year.5mt.1 28.6 4.Grain Exports Who's Exporting More?.2 2. WEAKER!! STEADY FIRMER FIRMER SOFTER SOFTER FIRMER STEADY -43% 1% 10% 15% -4% -3% 12% 0% 05/06 14.3 19.5 21.9 208 -2% 04/05 26.5 27.1 15.1 72.9 11.0 21.2 Last Year… FIRMER WEAKER STRONGER!! FIRMER FIRM. "Forecast.9 13.6 17.0 13.1 3.3 14.5 107.8 4. but up 21% from last year’s drought affected harvest.1 8. The export forecast for CIS is 19...0 21.0 13.0 8.6 2.5 155 7.8mt.5 109.1 29.3 161 7.2 15.0 15.3 22. Crop Year .8 193 5% 99/00 19.8 211 -1% Last Year.. USDA Clarkson Research Studies Page 12 Nov-05 .1 209 -1% 01/02 02/03 21.5 16.9 41.2 64.4 20... 5% 0.5 319.4 106.6 1996 100.0 209.372 5.6 138.275 2.9 1.292 1998 1.0 106.0 19.8% 2.00 % change 15 0.8% 16.0% 12.9 798.5 950.year total # total thermal * Year to Date. R.1 123.0% 882.0 -15 0.293 3.9% 842. EU~ USA Arg.0 0.9% 11.301 6.6 2.0 62.0 0.9% 2. Aust.2% 0.8 # 12.0 0.0% 1.4 28.0 0.2 25.3% 0.5 16.860 2.3 2.0 5 0.6 95.639 1997 3.9 104.390 2000 1.7% 0.1 46.6% 4.0% -0.0% 0.843 6. Lat.5 110.4 23.777 2.8% Source : IEA/BP GLOBAL STEEL Production Trade Index+ MT % Chge 88.3% 92.5% -7.5 47.7 5.8 # 13.4 127.498 628 1.0 131.2 623.246 22.9 20.8 19.8 64.9% 0.0 0.00 0.623 6.8 113.677 17.8 5.o.253 1. barley.167 2.2 94.7 69.1 109.7 27.4 115.0% 0.00 0.9 35.A.107 1.551 2001 1.0 15.0% 0.900# 2001 1.5% 3.9 12.6 57.0% 0.8 19.234 7.356 2.3 25.1% 901.4% 2.5 23.199 2002 1.6 98.0 0.00 0. '000t Nuclear 2.7 110.3 26.1 25. triticale.1% *end Sep 05 1.1 81.1% 9. Aust=Australia.0 14.1 566.2 31.3 10.6 1.5 108.7 15.0 PRC 0.3% 2.2% 892.0 16.009.093 1.2 44.669 3.4 87.178 6.1% 3.8 18.0% 21.3 24.7 12.4 12.966 7.469 -0.7 55.6 40.2 2.086 2.0 Industrial Production 0.4 6.8 97.9 14.0 3.3 25.9% 5.2 14.261 7.0 10 0.281# 2003 1.0 0.3% 0.8% 8.656 18.3 # 13.5 609.4 13.280 1.448 -2.302 2.274 2.8 243.900 0.334 1996 1.5% -0.00 0.4 60.2% 0.8 19.0% 3.0 -5 0.7% 0.6 581.3 29.9 93.0 ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION OECD TWH=10x9 KwH Total Year Africa N.3% 952.8 84.7 24.3 18. + Trade Weighted Steel Production Index.0 52.094 21. 0.4 110.0% 2.221 7.0% 16.4 123.3% 4.7 102.291 -7.7 59.6 273.934 2003^ 1.8 139.7 10.7 86.1 27.997 1.K.0 96.6 26.8 # 15.7 21.5% 21.2% *End previous month PRIMARY ALUMINUM PRODUCTION BY MAIN IMPORTER.0 125.9% -1.4 540.9 6.6 610.7 32.377 1.0% 0.7 15. 1.7% 91.095 6.7 902.043 6.124 1.3 112.1 777.276 2.5 554.8 69.6 2004 136.5 114.8 101.522 -3.1% 11.6 584.4 126.7 11.8 11.494 2.3 65.9 93.5% 3.414 6.0 0.2 -2.2% 1.4% 3.0 0.1 582.1 106.3% -6% Source: IGC Nov-05 .4% 3.7 107. PRC CIS* PROD.3 3.0% 7.2% 3.7 1..735 8.5% Source: IISI TOTAL GRAIN HARVEST Total PROD.1% 9.479 -3.2 19.2 43.0 -20 0.7 16.1% 5.4 17.5 115.3 3.3% -6.7 117.9 1. ^EU15 from 1994.4 11.277 6.6% 2.169 2.433 2. Million Tonnes EU P.382 8.00 0.3% 97.613 1.7% 801.3% 911.3 91. oats.5 1999 96.1% -4.9% 3.1 23.9 # 725.093 2.0 92.0% 0.1% 16.o.9% 2.0 2.0 -10 0.0 0.6 28.8 16. Year Coal Oil Gas Hydro 1996 3. PRC CIS* 1995 87.7 15.5 123.6 16.9% 5.Am.3 750.5 19.6 7.7 64.8% 9.0% -0.2 20.390 653 1.4 7.3% 124.4 91.4 4.5 8.0 0.804 19.1 7. sorghum.0 0. MT % Chge 873.0% 884.2 38.9% 3. N & C Am=North & Central America.0% 0.7 63.2 60.4% 3.525 10.5% -1.0% 0.9 43.244 2.0 22.9 # 14.0 0 0.5 4.0 0.5% -6. *FSU prior to 2001 Wheat=wheat+durum.4 18.0 0.5 53.7 1.6 1999 155.041 2.110 2.5 1994 # 151.0% 0.0 62.2 63.3% -6.00 0. Aust = Australasia Source : IAI ('97 Asia data includes China) CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION BY MAIN IRON ORE IMPORTER.381 1999 1. Coarse Grain=maize(corn).5% -0.209 2.9 582.711 5.3 79.7 16.8 93.8 101.0 0. ~EU25 from '03.0 41.369 5.0% 0.757 1998 3.2 90. 2005 122.2 13.8 6.7 272.6 # 16.3 92.2 89.0 850.230 2.5 61.4 36.0% 1.4 1.170 21.9 8.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 71.5% 98..1 58.9% 8.0 0.0% 4.0% 0.5 3.3 1.8% 4.0 0.5 9.1% 3.6% 9.00 0.316 2.5% 101.Am Asia Europe Aust PROD.6 91.9 1.0 '05/04 % 2% 1% 32% 1% 1% -5% 19% 2% -4% 1% 10% 10% * Year to Date.7 2002 103.7 31.069 2.8 2000 104. Clarkson Research Studies Page i 0.3 2003 160.7 1997 94.191 5.2 847.0% -2.0 85.0 Jan-96 May-96 Sep-96 Jan-97 May-97 Sep-97 Jan-98 May-98 Sep-98 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 AVERAGE 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION % CHANGE OECD OECD Europe USA Japan TOTAL R.4 21.0 0.8 788.428 5.0% 0.934 19.453 -1.9 90.4% 1.9 # 15.401 1.8 14.6% 1.3% 8.6 33.124 2.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EUROPE 0 0 0 0 JAPAN 0 0 0 0 0.613 2.9 23.2 150.909 6.1 1998 103.413 2.7 *end Sep 05 127.00 0.0% 0.632 11.8 67.0 2000 163.399 1. rye.6 64.4 5.0 12.5 292.5 102.0 59.128# 2002 1.0% 0.1 12.116 1.0 102.7 181.542 -1.6 95.029 20.8% 7.2% 114.3% 23.546 2.1% 2.3 1998 159.5 586.7 1.5 23.0% 3.6 # 14.0% 1. EU25 from 2005 GRAIN PRODUCTION.0 2001 90.9 7.1% -2.655 5.4% 5.7 1996 146.3 131.3 94.9 96.3 15.064 2.838# 2004 1.1% 7.0 0.991 2.970# 2000 1.7% 10.475 8.6 2.7 1035.106 5.6 24.2 99. Ger'ny 4.5 2.231 2.Industrial Indicators Database.7 262.6 253.5 221.562 -4.1 90.1% 914.5 1.490 2.4 275.0 42.R.1% -1.949 1999 3.1% 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 -0.00 0.2 124.8% 0.0% 2.6 57. mixed grain.418 04/03 0.S.2 138.0 20.359 1997 1.0% 0.6 2001 158.1% 1.5 25.0 0.0 0.807 2.2% 3.3% 106.5 14.0 0.4% '05/04 % 2% 3% 1% 12% 2% 0% 3% ^ Estimate .5 6.0% 0.1 16.4 263.9 2004 168.3% 13.3 98.9 64.7% 8.0 6.076 1.753 2.3 # 10.2 19.1 for.9% 4.4 1997 159.1 13.284 6.9 150.3 107.7 284. million tonnes WHEAT PRODUCTION COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION Total Year EU~ USA Arg.2 1.0% 0.286 5.0 98.7 26.5 24.412 678 1.5 23.1 18.6 6.384 -2. basis Jan 2000 = 100.8 13.9% 9.5 3. millet.0% 0.6% 1.8 14.1 -0.5 32.3% 9.5% 0.3 107.0 0.7 100.0 U.0 0.4% 102. Saudi Year 15 ^ Japan China Korea Taiwan USA India Mexico Brazil Turkey Arabia Iran 98.7% 870.2 752.6% 4.7% 92.508 661 1.0 15.015 5.5 260.122 20.075 1.5% 14.198 21.466 1.7 1995 155.9% 3.4% 22.591 2004^ 1.222 1.968 1.0 0.3 96.9 42.6 # 15.3 14.0% 0.5 3.7 45.641 1.5 62.3 3.0 141.1% -1.1 25.0 0.0% 0.1% 5.7% 8.5 265.8 # 14.9 2002 158.0% OECD Electricty Production MW % Chge 8.00 0.9 58.483 2.5 1.931 2.5 22.2% -0.5 22.4 % Change -10% -3% -22% 13% 5% 9% -2% -13% -9% -7% -1% -7% 2005/04 Arg=Argentina.2 2003 106. 6% 2004 2.3% -0.5% 2005 1..5% 7. DOWN BY.5% 0.6% 7.3% -0..9% -2. UP BY. Europe.5% 7. UP BY.1% 4.2% 0..9% 3.2% 5.5% 6.6% 3.7% 3.8% 2..2% -0.5% 1.0% 4.6% -0. UP BY.4% 0.1% 2.6% 0.0% 5.0% 9.9% 2003 1.2% 0.1% 3.2% 1... DOWN BY.8% 3.5% 2.1% 1.0% 4.8% 1.6% 0. This Year UP BY.6% 2.5% 7.8% 4. UP BY.7% 6.1% 4.2% -0.9% -0.5% 3..9% 3.8% 1999 3.3% 0.9% 0.4% 4.5% -0.8% 17.. DOWN BY.3% Totals include minor importers omitted from table * Estimate "forecast for calendar year.1% 3.0% 1.8% 4..5% 3. DOWN BY.9% 3.4% 4.7% 5.6% 1.0% 8.9% 5.4% 4.5% 8. DOWN BY.2% 5.7% 5.0% NO CHANGE DOWN BY.0% -3..8% 4. UP BY. NO CHANGE 0.3% 8.2% 7..0% 4.0% -3. France Germany Italy Total Eurozone UK Russia Poland Romania TOTAL C&E..5% 3...5% 6..7% 4.China R.9% 4..3% 2006 2.0% 3..9% 2.3% 1..0% 0.1% 2005 2.. Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela TOTAL Latin America.7% 1.8% 4.8% 5.4% 10.5% 4.9% 3.2% 1....9% 1.9% Asia.5% 3.4% 1.9% 4..0 2.7% 4.8% -10.9% 2.4% 6..2% 0...6% 1.1% 7.5% 8.3% 3.0% 5.9% Global GDP Indicators.4% -8. This Year DOWN BY.9% 0.2% -0.5% 4.4% 2002 1.5% 3..1% 0. DOWN BY.7% UP BY.7% 0.9% 6...0% 3.3% 3...3% Growth Trend % Year-On-Year 1998 4.1% 2006 3.8% 4.0% 0..9% 3.4% -1.8% -0.2% 1.3% 2006 2.1% -0. Growth Trend % Year-On-Year Est.8% 5.. DOWN BY. UP BY.3% 2.1% 4. 4..8% -4.8% 0.3% 7.2% 5.0% 2.0% 8.3% 0..2% 0. DOWN BY.4% 5.5% -1.9% 1.5% 5.5% 9. Saudi Arabia Iran TOTAL M EAST~.3% 7. NO CHANGE UP BY..1% 3...0% 4.4% 2003 0.4% 1.1% 8..2% 7. Sources : IMF Clarkson Research Studies 2001 2002 0..2% 4.1% 0.9% 0.0% -7.0% 9.0% 3.1% 2005 2.8% 1.5% 4.9% 2. Developing Nations.6% 4..3% -0.8% -0. DOWN BY.Korea India Pakistan Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Singapore Thailand Hong Kong Vietnam Taiwan TOTAL NICs Next Year v..8% -6..7% 4. UP BY.8% 2.7% 5..3% 6.7% 5.8% 1.0% 6. NO CHANGE UP BY.3% 7. ~Includes Turkey Page ii Nov-05 ..2% 1.0% 5.5% 0.0% 10.0% 4.0% 6.5% 2003 2.4% 3.2% 5.9% 5.4% 6. DOWN BY.9% 6. UP BY..0% 5.1% 5.2% 3.4% 4. This Year -0.0% 4. 4.0% 3.9% -0.4% 5...2% 2. UP BY.4% 5..8% -0..7% 2.0% 1..4% 4.1% 1.1% 7..1% 8.7% 5.9% 5..9% 5. 2001 2002 0. DOWN BY.Seaborne Trading Nations GDP Database.9% -0..8% 3.1% -7.4% -3.4% 4.3% 7.3% 4..5% 6.0% 5.5% 7. DOWN BY. DOWN BY.3% 2..8% 4.4% 5.7% 5.1% 5...2% 4.0% 1999 4.2% 0. 1999 3.R. UP BY.3% Growth Trend % Year-On-Year 1998 2.3% Next Year v.7% 1.3% 3.7% Next Year v.0% 7..9% 5.8% 9.5% 2.4% 2.1% 4..5% 0.1% 6.4% 7.3% -0.0% 3... Canada TOTAL Africa.8% 9.8% -4.7% 6.1% 0.0% 5.4% 4.2% 4.4% 9.9% 5.2% 2004 2.9% 5.2% 0.3% 3..1% 7..7% 2.1% 3.8% 4.0% 4..4% -10. DOWN BY.7% 5.0% 6.7% 4.3% 7.. Est.7% 6.4% 5..4% 2000 3.1% -1.0% 3.2% 2004 4..1% 8.1% 4..9% 0.. Europe.3% 4.1% 3.8% 2. UP BY.5% 0..6% 1999 2000 -0.7% 2001 1..8% 1.2% 4.3% 6.2% 5.7% 2...6% 7..2% 2.3% 6.8% 0.3% 1.4% 8.0% 5.7% 2000 3.5% 6.9% 4.7% 1.3% 4..9% 2.7% 3.7% 7.6% 4. This Year 2003 1.8% 4.2% -5..5% -1.8% 3.0% 4.9% 0..5% -5.6% 5.0% 5.8% 0.3% 4.4% 4.5% 1.2% 4. P. Growth Trend % Year-On-Year Est.7% 3.4% 7.2% 3.8% 7.9% 3..3% 0.5% 5.4% 4.5% 5. -0. UP BY.5% 4..3% 1.5% 2.2% 2.1% 3.1% 4.1% 1..0% Next Year v.3% UP BY. 2001 2002...8% 5.2% 1.4% 4.3% -0..8% 7.9% -6.3% 5.6% 7.2% 2.5% 4...4% 2.2% 1.1% 1.o.4% 5.3% 1.2% 5. Industrial Nations.4% 0.9% 1.6% 2005 3.5% 3.4% 6.9% 4. USA.5% 6.3% 3.8% 3.1% 6..0% 2004 3..8% 3.5% 2. Japan.7% 9..6% 1.9% 6. UP BY.3% -2.9% 0.7% 5.5% 3. CIS… WORLD GDP Growth.5% 0.3% 3.3% 5..1% 3.0% 1.8% 4.1% 4.3% 8.0% -3.2% 3.0% 4..8% -1.9% 4.1% 7.0% 3..8% 2.4% -13.7% 4.1% 3.5% 3..6% 1998 -1.8% Est..7% 2. 1998 3.3% 7..4% 6.7% 0.9% Others.4% 2000 4.2% -4.8% -0.. DOWN BY.3% 6.0% 2006 2..2% 4.. NO CHANGE UP BY..1% 4.8% 5.8% 0..8% 0. Vessel Typical Charterparty Load.2 15.3 24.0 200.0 52.0 270.000 322.000 >50.000 35.3 270.0 15.4 24.0 350.0 48.0 60.3 20.5 19.000 Canada Port Cartier Seven Islands QCM.8 40.5 28.2 26.5 18.0 38.000 40. Guaiba Is.000t 40hrs.000 120.000 75.141 110.0 55.0 49.0 274.9 327.0 400.0 47.000 60.0 18.2 20.0 54.7 304.5 12.0 325.0 45.000t 135.000t 65hrs.8 365.0 250.0 60.0 62.Iron Ore Load Ports Database.0 13.000 90.000 170. Load T/Day Country/Port Norway Narvik Kirkenes Mo-i-Rana New Ore Pier No.000t 150-200.0 20.0 325.0 26.000 * Depth Alongside May Be Different.000 50.000t 65hrs.8 338.3 350. Clarkson Research Studies Page iii Nov-05 .0 32.000 80.000 48.0 41.0 245.000 70.7 17.+1000tph after 40.5 12.000 <150.000 120.0 355.000 Ponta da Madeira GIT Chile Guayacan Huasco Huasco CVRD.000 72 hrs 40.000 15.0 170.000t 60.2 130.4 350.000 Fines 40.000 160.0 42.0 18.000 Brazil Ponta do Ubu Sepetiba Tubarao Samarco Ferteco CVRD Berths 1/2 308.2 310.0 335.0 265.5 A/S Stavanger Gullsmedvik 27.0 220.5 29.7 315.000t 100-135.000 95.0 314.0 42.0 14.000 274.9 20.000 200.000 L/P Venezuela Puerto Ordaz Boca Grande CVG Ferrominera Transfer Station 274.1 325.0 17.0 21.0 261.000 20.0 303.000t 110.000 Peru San Nicolas MINPECO 17.0 325.0 60.8 17.3 350.000 15.000t + 12.000 28.000 24.0 15.5 50.2 16.0 339.000 50. Dimensions (m) Loading Ports Terminal/Berth Draft* LOA Beam WLTHC Max.000 80.2 22.2 55.000 50.0 14.000 90.0 303.000t 160-200.+5000tph after 40.000 24.0 22.000 100.000 90. N. Max.0 335.0 16..000t 135-140.000 100.000 365.0 40.8 165.0 350.000 22.8 30. Berth 1 MBR.000t 140-160..3 230.5 15.0 54.000 116.0 19.6 12.0 55.0 11.0 15. + 6000tph after 60. + 6000tph after 120.2 12.000 200.000 230.0 12.000 50.000t 60hrs.000 <135.000t anchorage 150.0 50.0 47.000 365.0 48.7 18.000 60.0 200.5 19.000 60.0 53.000 South Africa Saldanha Bay Iscor Export 21.0 335.000 365.0 East Intercourse Parker Point Nelson Point FinucaneIsland Savage River Cape Lambert 1 Cape Lambert 2 18.0 14.000-100.6/12.000 Mauritania Nouadhibou Point Central 16.0 Outer ore berth Berth 9 Barathi Dock 2 Ore Berth Ore Loader 16. 16.0 260.0 54.0 CMP Export Guacolda No 2 Santa Barbara 16.8 350.000 280.000 36 hours + 1 hr each 5000t 130.000 Australia Dampier Port Hedland Port Latta Port Walcott India Visakhapatnam Mormugao Madras New Mangalore Paradip 9.000 247.000 100.000 20.000 28.0 47.000t+ 40..0 54.000 Sweden Lulea Oxelosund LKAB Ore Berth 11.000 365.0 17.8 16.5 350. Dock IOCC Dock No.000 275.000 275.0 50.000 75.0 55..5 15.6 17.0 60.0 55. 8 24.000 232. 230.0 300.0 150.0 None 305.5 32.0 55.0 13..000 170.7 24.7 13..2 14. Berth 1 Neptune Terminal 20.0 305.000 25.000 140.2 Coal Berth Kooragang Is.0 290.8 280.. Adang Bay 15.5 22.6 190.000 35.000 35.000 20.8 53.0 280..5 20.000 15.000 Berth 2 16....0 304.0 18.0 305.000 25..0 53.3 15.000 20.000 50..000 45.000 20.2 15.0 35.000 50.Pulau Laut Term.0 250.000 18.0 42. 50..7 17.000 35.000 120.0 19.6 235.2 53..2 320.7 13.7 314. Load T/Day Coal Terminal 17. 180.0 15.0 47.0 211.000 75. 50.000 25.000 25. Dimensions (m) Air/ LOA Beam Draft Max.000 25.000 35..000 25...0 50..0 320.000 150.000 30.3 13. Port Warratah Carbones del Caribe Cementos del Caribe Anchorage Anchorage Carbonsan Anchorage.000 45.000 40. 35.5 280...0 350.000 10.5 16. 9 Dominion Terminal McDuffie terminal Electro-Coal Transfer IMT Bulk Marine Terminal 12.0 277.5 Anchorage no restriction Nth.0 292...0 Anchorage.000 25.000 25.8 10.5 16.. Up to .000 50. self load Bulk Wayuu 11.5 40..000 35.000 Greenwich Pier 124 CCSC Coal Pier Bayside Coal Pier Curtis Bay Coal Pier N & W Pier No.0 25.000 170.000 30.000 17.0 232..0 228.3 250.0 70-75.0 52.5 18.0 Coal Terminal 17.000 200.000 75.0 40.0 297.6 200...0 30.0 43. 60.000 80.7 259.000 Barney Point RG Tanna Coal No.000 50.1 Coal Berth No..2 13.000 60.000 150.0 200..0 320..000 21.0 32.0 290..2 300..000 Up to .8 45..2 13.000 30. Roberts Bank.000 20..5 43.000 187.000 180.Coal Load Ports Database.000 35.3 12.000 10..8 137.0 47.0 23.000 SCALE SCALE 15.2 10. Philadelphia Baltimore Norfolk Newport News Mobile Davant Myrtle Grove Burnside Australia Hay Point Dalrymple Bay Abbot Point Gladstone Port Kembla Newcastle Colombia Puerto Bolivar Cartagena Barranquilla Pt.. Up to ..0 200.3 30..1 350..0 50.7 20.0 35.3 17.000 11.0 47.0 41.0 Coal Terminal 11.000 Ridley Island Inc.000 150.0 21.0 290.0 14.7 49.7 13..000 8.000 100.4 Coal Export Terminal 12..0 320.000 180.0 85.0 21. Vessel Typical Charterparty Load. 14.2 15.0 245.000 184.2 150..0 12..0 305.0 16.000 80.0 45.5 15.0 50..0 47.000 Up to .5 North Port Gornikow Matola Clarkson Research Studies Page iv 17.000 Up to .6 290.4 20.0 230.0 19.0 15..000 Up to .000 200.0 12.000 40..9 48.5 55. Drummond Puerto Prodeco Santa Marta Tolu Venezuela Maracaibo Indonesia Balikpapan Banjarmasin Kotabaru Tanah Merah Tanjung Bara Teluk Bayur China Qinhuangdao Rizhao Xingang Poland Gdansk Swinoujscie Russia Vostochny Mozambique Maputo Terminal/Berth Draft Max.7 300.000 35.000 100..0 12..0 45..000 170.3 325.0 240.000 20. Loading Ports Country/Port South Africa Richard's Bay Canada Prince Rupert Vancouver U.2 13..0 41.0 48.5 12.000 12.0 46.0 50.0 47..0 175.3 14..000 20.A.000 10...2 15.000 25..000 175..000 Up to .000 90.6 43.000 211.5 15.000 45..000 15.0 314.0 30.0 290.000 Up to . 50.3 45.0 33.000 232..3 22.. Up to .000 180.000 Nov-05 .. Up to .0 17.5 45.000 Up to ..0 50.0 50.6 Pier No.8 15.5 17.S.0 120..000 50.0 270. .1 STRONG!! 25.8 35.7 14.7 24. % Change. all figures for total Calendar Year.. % Change. 16.1 22.6 22.8 12..9 17. sources quoted by SBB report.. Excludes Phos.9 15... this would take 2005 calendar year exports to 7.0 29. That represents about a 250% increase y-o-y.1 16. Acid + Phos. Rice.0 22. according to figures from the German scrap federation (BDSV) presented at the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) conference in Milan in late October.2 24. Coke Pig Iron Scrap DRI/HBI Salt Manganese Ore Cement TOTAL.9 STEADY 21.0 22.. 1% 1% 0% 11% 0% 0% 0% 1% Trade Trend Million Tonnes 1997 % Change.0 11. DRI/HBI = Direct Reduced Iron/Hot Briquetted Iron.7 80 92 93 90 92 94 96 90 91 Phosphates Potash Sulphur Urea 14.4mt of ferrous scrap from Europe in 1H 2005.2 20.5 22.0 39. Rock. Annualised. Metals & Minerals.6 27.. Japanese customs statistics show that total exports for the first seven months this year reached 4. 125 650 625 615 606 605 120 597 Minor bulk demand left hand axis 603 600 115 575 Agribulk & Softs. Oilseed/meal.0 28.0 28.2 WEAKER!! 96 STRONG!! STEADY STEADY STEADY STRONG!! 80 STEADY 222 FIRM.8 21.8 22..4 STEADY 46 STEADY 46. This 797 STEADY 2% + Agribulks = Soymeal.1 21.1 25.4 12.6 26.8 25.5 22.6 18.39mt..7 24.4mt of scrap exports this year.5 37.8 42.3 16.4 25. 1998 1999 2000 2001 714 0% 697 -2% 686 -2% 709 3% 712 0% 2002 718 1% 1% 2% 2% Trade Trend Million Tonnes 1997 2006* Next Year v.9 13. Clarkson Research Studies Page 13 Nov-05 .3 21.4 11.. Next Year v.3 STEADY 24.8 45. 1% 1% 1% 2% 22% -2% 5% 0% 3% 2% 6% 3% 3% Trade Trend Million Tonnes Manufactures 2006* 2003 754 5% 2004 776 3% 2005 783 1% 2006* Next Year v.0 27. 2006(f) 2004 2005(e) 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1996 1997 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 110 o India imported 1.4 16.dwt 825 Reduced scrapping and steady deliveries increase supply in 2005 800 775 155 800 F'cast 776 150 783 145 754 Ship supply 10-60K dwt 750 714 725 697 699 709 712 140 718 135 697 700 686 130 675 659 o Japan is certain to break 2004’s record 6.6 20.0 22.2 16.1 12...7 9.3 27..6 26.7 39. This 1998 195 166 Specified Minor Bulk.4 21.5mt.8 19.2 24.9 27.5 31.4 25.0 21.4 19.7 22.6 22.6 18. Considering seasonal fluctuations and current weak demand.7 19.3 20. MAP.7 18. This STEADY STEADY STEADY STRONG!! STEADY STEADY STEADY 184 STEADY 25 15 55 8 24 8 49 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Steel Product Forest Product 189 156 174 158 187 161 181 164 186 160 197 163 206 166 216 170 218 STEADY 174 STEADY TOTAL 361 0% 345 -5% 332 -4% 348 5% 345 -1% 346 0% 360 4% 373 4% 386 3% 392 STEADY TOTAL...1 24.7 17. Sulphur & Processed Phosphates (DAP.7 26.7 15.4 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 19 14 49 4 23 6 56 20 13 46 4 23 6 45 18 12 45 5 23 6 45 24 12 46 7 23 7 46 23 12 44 8 23 7 46 23 12 45 7 23 7 45 24 13 48 8 23 15 47 24 14 53 7 24 23 47 25 15 55 7 24 8 49 170 0% 156 -8% 153 -2% 164 8% 162 -1% 161 -1% 179 11% 191 7% 183 -5% 2006* Next Year v..5 16. TSP).7 15.8 21.. Urea.3 22.2 28.. Fertiliser = Potash..5 12. This 24..7 21.6 42.Minor Bulk Trades Long Term Outlook Commentary mt m. % Change..1 23.4 37.8 10.1 10. Totals may include tonnage moved in non-bulk vessels. Trade Trend Million Tonnes 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Raw Sugar White Sugar 20.3 15....7 66 183 0% 66 196 7% 69 202 3% 70 197 -3% 72 205 4% 74 211 3% 75 216 2% 76 212 -2% 78 215 1% Total Sugar Agribulks + Fertiliser (ex PhosRock) TOTAL.3 37 38 40 36 41 43 45 46 46 Soymeal Oilseed/meal Rice 34.7 23. *Forecast. it is still believed that total exports will break the 7mt barrier.3 20.. 0 0.1 0.3 0.0 66.1 0.3 36.6 14.8 36.8 7.2 3.3 0.0 4.4 5.0 0.4 12. DWT 2002 71.6 0.9 15% Oct 86.1 0. SMALLER!! SMALLER!! SMALLER!! LARGER!! STEADY STEADY….5 0.4 0.6 11.8 17.6 31% 111.3 342.1 0. DWT End Year m.1 0.1 3.5 YTD figures are shown for Deliveries and Scrapping.0 3.1 0.2 0.8 4.9 14.3 344.4 4.1 0.0 0.7 0.3 339.0 0.4 0.2 4.3 0.8 12.0 65.4 0.1 87.2 16% Aug 85.4 21% 107.0 68.3 5% Handymax 40-60.1 0.5 0.4 21% 84.5 4.2 4. Last 294.4 19.9 4.2 7.3 18% 81.2 3.3 20% 337. DWT 2002 57.5 5.6 2.2 5.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 0.9 4.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0. Last LARGER!! LARGER!! STEADY….6 2.000 dwt 2002 2003 2004 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct This Year v.7 6% This Year v.1 0.0 0. Last 98.3 0.8 21% 333.9 0.1 118. Fleet Size Deliveries Scrapping Combos Laid-up Storage Trading Fleet Orderbook Orderbook % Fleet Handysize 10-40.0 0.1 0.4 67.0 68.6 1.2 94.1 0.0 0.1 0.000 dwt End Year m.9 4.2 22% Jul 64.4 31% LARGER!! LARGER!! SMALLER!! STEADY STEADY LARGER!! LARGER!! 10% 11% -21% 0% 0% 9% 16% End 2005 345.1 0.1 0.2 6% 2003 72.0 0.4 0.1 115.1 66.1 81.5 8.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 6% Aug 74.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 86.0 0.6 19% LARGER!! STEADY….1 117.1 75.1 0.9 0.0 0.1 74.9 33% 112.1 4.7 19% 2003 61.2 4.1 0.9 13.3 11.0 65.8 3.1 0.1 0.0 13.6 14% 75.1 20% 339.1 0.6 14.0 0.4 5.1 111.000 dwt End Year m.4 3.4 0.4 0.6 6% Sep 74.2 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 1.1 0.1 86.3 6.7 0.0 61.9 1.2 7.1 1.1 73.1 0.7 0.1 0.3 12. 2% -12% -33% -36% 73% 0% 2% 0% Oct 65.5 0.2 17% Jun 73.3 16% 74.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 6.3 338.1 1.1 74.8 15% Jul 85.6 1.1 0.0 0.1 85.Bulkcarrier Fleet Total Bulk Fleet.2 0.1 101.9 End 2005 117.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.4 33.1 0.3 0. LARGER!! LARGER!! SMALLER!! 8% 17% 4% 100% 8% -9% 12 Month Trend End: m.1 0. DWT Jun 7% 1% 9% -17% 16% 0% 7% 3% 12 Month Trend End: m.1 120.0 14.1 73.8 48. DWT 2002 93.8 13.5 0.5 4.7 6% 63.9 4.0 0.0 12. DWT Fleet Size Deliveries Scrapping Combos Laid-up Storage Trading Fleet Orderbook Orderbook % Fleet Fleet Size Deliveries Scrapping Combos Laid-up Storage Trading Fleet Orderbook Orderbook % Fleet 12 Month Trend End: m.4 2.3 20.0 22% Aug 64.5 3.1 3.0 0.5 30.6 0.2 305.6 0.1 23.9 0.5 16% 322.3 343.0 0.0 63.3 0.4 2.7 0.2 68.2 5. DWT Sep 86.3 0.8 4.6 13.8 4.1 0.0 1.5 21% Sep 64.4 0.7 13.9 0. Total = vessels over 1 Clarkson Research Studies Page 14 Nov-05 .7 0.3 5.0 0.4 20% 340.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 10% 302.4 0.4 0.1 9.3 349.2 1. DWT End Year m.8 0.4 32% 113. STEADY….9 18.3 327.1 72. Fleet totals are metric tonnes and net of miscellaneous changes.2 0.0 57. Last STEADY….1 86.2 End 2005 66.1 0.0 4.1 0.5 3. which are not listed above.4 0.1 10.6 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 4.0 64.1 0.1 0.1 73. 2002 2003 2004 72.9 0.4 295.6 4.3 0.1 0.3 23% 2004 Fleet Size Deliveries Scrapping Combos Laid-up Storage Trading Fleet Orderbook Orderbook % Fleet 74.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 85.6 0.5 4.2 0.000 dwt+ End Year m.1 12.1 5.8 4.1 0.2 0.1 3.8 14% Panamax 60-80.0 0. LARGER!! SMALLER!! LARGER!! STEADY LARGER!! STEADY….0 End 2005 74.5 0.5 4.1 72.3 0.0 64.3 3.8 0.1 73.9 0.1 0.9 9% Capesize 80.3 5. DWT 2003 2004 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct This Year v..3 0.0 4.8 65.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 20% This Year v.4 36.4 0.8 0.6 15% This Year v.3 0.1 13.0 36.1 0.1 1. DWT Jun Oct 12 Month Trend End: m.1 115.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 71.5 0.6 3.3 6.6 3.1 0.4 4.8 35.1 73.5 0.9 7% Jul 73.4 0.8 21% 335.3 0.1 0.7 6% 2004 Fleet Size Deliveries Scrapping Combos Laid-up Storage Trading Fleet Orderbook Orderbook % Fleet 54.7 14. Last LARGER!! SMALLER!! 7% -18% LARGER!! STEADY STEADY LARGER!! SMALLER!! 9% 0% 0% 7% -13% 12 Month Trend End: m.4 0.7 1.7 32% 114.8 1.1 0.5 15.0 0.4 End 2005 87.1 118.4 32% 115.0 54. Now the Handymax sector has a fleet size of 1. 10% up y-o-y. The Handysize newbuilding market also saw five new orders placed in the same month.4m dwt. In addition. This represents 34% of the current fleet capacity.212 ships. there were no new orders placed for Panamaxes during October. adding an extra 1. As such the fleet stayed at 720 vessels of 115.Bulkcarrier Fleet Handy/Handymax Fleet Trends 15% Combos as % of Handy fleet Orderbook as % of Handy fleet 12% Commentary 13 new Handymaxes were reported to have been delivered during October. So far this year. There were three new orders placed for Handymax vessels during October.3m dwt to the fleet. with only 14% aged over 20 years old. but 213% of the capacity of the fleet aged over 20 years. while 23% of the fleet capacity is over 20 years old. 53% of the current fleet capacity is under 10 years old. Again.5m dwt. This represents 14. 15% 10% Scrap & Delivery Watch – Year To 1st November 2005 Panamax vessels: 0 scrapped + 2 combos 59 delivered + 0 combos 5% Nov-93 May-94 Nov-94 May-95 Nov-95 May-96 Nov-96 May-97 Nov-97 May-98 Nov-98 May-99 Nov-99 May-00 Nov-00 May-01 Nov-01 May-02 Nov-02 May-03 Nov-03 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 0% Capesize Fleet Trends 40% 35% Combos as % of Capesize fleet Orderbook as % of Capesize fleet Commentary There were nine reported new deliveries during October. No demolitions happened during the month. 25% 20% 15% Scrap & Delivery Watch – Year To 1st November 2005 Capesize vessels: 1 scrapped + 2 combos 51 delivered + 0 combos 10% 5% Nov-93 May-94 Nov-94 May-95 Nov-95 May-96 Nov-96 May-97 Nov-97 May-98 Nov-98 May-99 Nov-99 May-00 Nov-00 May-01 Nov-01 May-02 Nov-02 May-03 Nov-03 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 0% Clarkson Research Studies Page 15 Nov-05 . The total orderbook is now 167 vessels of 12. one Handysize was reported as being lost at sea. The Capesize orderbook now consists of 242 ships of a cumulative 35. no ships have been sold for scrap.2m dwt.770 ships of 74.1m dwt. Two Handysize vessels were sold for scrap in October.6% of the current fleet by deadweight. adding an extra 0. 30% There were another three new orders for Capesizes placed during October. 52% of current fleet capacity is aged below 10 years. These changes have taken the fleet size to 86. As for Handysizes. consisting of 1.2m dwt and the Handysize fleet includes 2. 9% 6% Scrap & Delivery Watch – Year To 1st November 2005 Handymax vessels: 2 scrapped 80 delivered Handysize vessels: 8 scrapped 52 delivered 3% Nov-93 May-94 Nov-94 May-95 Nov-95 May-96 Nov-96 May-97 Nov-97 May-98 Nov-98 May-99 Nov-99 May-00 Nov-00 May-01 Nov-01 May-02 Nov-02 May-03 Nov-03 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 0% Panamax Fleet Trends 30% 25% Combos as % of Panamax fleet Orderbook as % of Panamax fleet 20% Commentary Three new Panamaxes were delivered during October.9m dwt. there were six deliveries. making the sector’s orderbook now total 242 ships of 12.6m dwt.4m dwt capacity to the fleet.380 ships of 65. 000/69.692 2.000 1. STEADY STEADY LARGER!! LARGER!! LARGER!! STEADY LARGER!! 0% 1% 0% 1% 5% 2% 2% 0% 1% 25% 7% 0% 11% 7% 39% 4% 0% 0% 12% 23% 60% 0% 10% 5.000/69. STEADY….000/89.000/39.999 50.000/119.000/99. STEADY….000/59. vessels End of Year: End of Month: 2002 2003 2004 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 237 369 499 773 366 479 239 361 484 768 370 470 242 356 478 787 391 479 241 357 479 790 405 483 241 358 479 791 405 483 241 358 479 792 408 483 241 359 478 794 411 485 242 359 478 795 411 485 242 359 476 796 411 486 2.072 30 22 10 228 279 39 5 4 617 454 694 1. LARGER!! STEADY….343 1.000/254.999 25.082 STEADY….302 1.999 70.999 100.999 255.999 120. LARGER!! LARGER!! STEADY LARGER!! LARGER!! LARGER!! STEADY….999 120.174 1.000/79.547 5.212 46 25 10 228 346 53 8 4 720 STEADY….770 2.000/14.000/199.000 &+ Total Capesize TOTAL > 10.380 454 454 454 454 454 730 736 745 749 756 1.000/24.026 6.999 100.608 5.199 1.999 160.000/79.999 255.375 1.999 45.351 1.210 38 40 41 42 45 25 25 25 25 25 10 10 10 10 10 228 228 227 227 228 330 333 334 338 344 49 49 51 52 52 8 8 8 8 8 4 4 4 4 4 692 697 700 706 716 454 758 1.000 10.999 50.768 2.000/44.733 2.999 320.999 Total Panamax 80.000/254.999 90.851 Combo Fleet Profile TOTAL > 10.000/24.000/159.770 468 458 248 465 466 296 467 476 359 466 481 396 466 481 404 466 482 418 466 482 421 466 482 427 466 482 432 1.000/29.059 30 19 11 232 253 37 5 4 591 452 620 1.000/34.000/199.999 15.227 1.046 6.000/89.999 Total Panamax 80. vessels End of Year: End of Month: 2002 Total < 10.999 160.000/14.999 90.366 1.190 1.000/59.000/99.000 &+ Total Capesize Fleet Growth % Year on Year 1 1 0 1 0 0 2003 1 1 0 1 0 0 3 2004 1 1 0 1 0 0 3 3 Fleet Growth % Year on Year May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 STEADY STEADY 0% 0% STEADY 0% STEADY STEADY STEADY SMALLER!! SMALLER!! STEADY SMALLER!! SMALLER!! SMALLER!! STEADY SMALLER!! SMALLER!! STEADY STEADY SMALLER!! 0% 0% 0% -14% -6% 0% -13% -11% -11% 0% -15% -11% 0% 0% -60% 3 7 9 3 7 7 3 7 7 3 7 7 3 7 7 3 7 6 3 7 6 3 7 6 3 7 6 19 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 5 32 37 9 12 14 9 9 2 5 0 60 5 31 36 9 12 13 11 9 1 5 0 60 5 31 36 9 12 13 9 9 1 2 0 55 5 30 35 9 12 11 9 9 1 2 0 53 5 30 35 9 12 11 9 9 1 2 0 53 5 29 34 9 12 11 9 9 1 2 0 53 5 29 34 9 12 11 9 9 1 2 0 53 5 27 32 8 12 11 8 9 1 2 0 51 5 27 32 8 12 11 8 9 1 2 0 51 SMALLER!! -12% 119 116 111 108 108 106 106 102 102 SMALLER!! -11% Fleet statistics shown are in metric tonnes in metric tonne divisions.Bulkcarrier Fleet Profiles Bulk Fleet Profile Total < 10.203 1.000/19. STEADY….999 Total Handysize 40.974 5. Clarkson Research Studies Page 16 Nov-05 .000/29.757 2.995 6.723 2.000/49.999 Total Handymax 60.761 2.369 456 603 1.999 Total Handymax 60.999 45.999 200.000 10.000 No. 5% No.755 2.000/119.999 35.148 34 24 10 228 314 46 8 4 668 5.000/49.000/44. vessels No.999 Total Handysize 40. vessels No.999 20.999 200.999 20.071 6.184 1.999 35.000/159.000/319.000/34.999 70.999 15.999 25. STEADY….000/319.000/19.999 30. STEADY….000/39.999 30.999 320. STEADY…. 5 11.9 56.6 0.6 0.000 10.3 0.0 22.3 0.3 98.5 0.000/199.1 33.1 0.999 Total Handymax 60.1 84.4 2.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 22.2 8.999 90.7 10.2 0.8 21.999 320.000/34.0 6.3 0.2 1.3 1.1 2.000/19.7 85.7 1.3 84.0 1.8 3.6 0.8 18.7 1.4 13.3 12.7 1.6 19.5 0.5 0.4 0.9 6.000/254.4 6.000/19.999 Total Panamax 80.1 17.9 29.0 11.3 85. LARGER!! STEADY….3 1.5 3.5 0.8 0.1 19.9 21.7 71.2 1.8 0.999 200.999 255.8 75.2 1.000/59.9 22.3 1.3 2.4 0.03 0.000/254.01 0.1 74.4 2.0 21.1 33.1 1.000/89.3 1.2 10.8 15.999 Total Handysize 40.000/29.Bulkcarrier Fleet Profiles Bulk Fleet Profile Million Dwt Million Dwt End of Year: End of Month: 2002 2003 Total < 10.8 55.999 200.7 1.02 0.2 3.1 0.3 111.000/79.4 11.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 13.999 100. LARGER!! LARGER!! LARGER!! STEADY LARGER!! 0% 1% 0% 2% 5% 2% 2% 0% 1% 26% 8% 10% 6% 39% 4% 0% 13% 23% 70% 10% 7% Fleet Growth % Year on Year 2002 2003 2004 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 0.999 160.000/44.02 STEADY 0. STEADY STEADY….3 2.02 0.1 11.2 63.000/24.5 10.3 73.8 0.4 64.3 54.7 302.000/319.1 33.0 11.4 3.2 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 3.5 TOTAL > 10.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 73.9 22.6 22.2 18.3 2.2 86.000/49.8 112.03 0.4 1.9 19.0 6.999 320.6 STEADY STEADY STEADY SMALLER!! SMALLER!! STEADY SMALLER!! SMALLER!! SMALLER!! STEADY SMALLER!! SMALLER!! STEADY STEADY SMALLER!! -13% -11% -11% 8.2 0.1 0.4 18.2 33.5 0.999 255.5 332.000/99.000/14.6 43.5 74.3 2.5 57.2 18.3 3.1 0.2 10.999 70.1 33.000/119.3 1.3 1.7 1.02 0.8 1.9 51.1 2.3 22.2 1.999 30.6 339.1 29.1 1.3 57.01 0.1 33. STEADY….1 0.000/119.7 6.999 50.2 1.6 64.7 6.8 21.2 13.7 59.999 20.3 322.03 0.8 0.000/34.000/24.999 25.2 1.5 0.3 18.5 1.1 2.1 11.3 0.1 48.9 2.5 6.01 0.5 0.999 45.7 12.999 120.9 29.000/89.0 3.9 LARGER!! Combo Fleet Profile Total < 10.1 0.000/14.8 74.2 1.000/99.000/159.4 11. Clarkson Research Studies Page 17 Nov-05 .6 0.7 1.02 0.3 114.3 0.3 2.4 6.7 1.7 8.2 0.4 6.3 30.5 2.6 2.3 1.0 3.1 1.1 3.3 2.8 0.01 STEADY 0.4 19.1 0.2 29.000/59.0 58.9 19.3 2.999 160.5 0.8 61.3 2.2 1.6 86.9 13. STEADY….9 29.000/39.3 2.2 2.0 54.1 10.01 0.3 2.1 19.1 0.9 336.9 2.2 12.1 1.2 1.9 54.6 0.9 19.5 21.2 1.5 1.8 0.01 0.000 294.3 333.4 11.1 0.3 0.0 33.9 29.3 1.5 63.999 35.2 2.3 18.000/79.5 0.6 22.9 11.000/69.4 55.9 19.0 11.4 1.7 1.7 9.3 2.4 81.02 0.0 11.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 22.2 1.3 2.5 10.4 6.1 60.5 0.0 6.2 1.7 56.1 0.5 0.0 6.4 13.0 337.3 2.0 21.8 0.1 0.01 0.8 21.1 0.9 19.3 93.2 1.7 0.999 Total Handysize 40.5 1.3 115.1 111.8 0.1 33.0 3.999 Total Panamax 80.1 21.1 0.6 20.0 0.0 33.999 15.2 1.5 10.02 0.2 0.01 0.3 8.9 21.999 90.9 6.9 22.5 22.5 3.7 6.5 SMALLER!! -17% 12.000 2004 May Jun Jul Aug Fleet Growth % Year on Year Million Dwt Million Dwt End of Year: End of Month: Sep Oct STEADY…. STEADY….03 0.000/69.1 72.000/199.3 74. STEADY….2 18.2 3.9 21.2 22.7 73.7 1.6 11.2 0.0 11.6 0.01 0.999 70.02 0.7 10.0 1.1 6.03 0.999 30.2 1.999 45.8 65.02 0.2 2. STEADY….0 29.2 1.000/159.1 0.1 1.4 9.2 13.6 64.2 1.999 100. LARGER!! LARGER!! STEADY LARGER!! LARGER!! LARGER!! STEADY….3 0.6 2.03 0.3 107.8 45.999 35.03 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.2 2.0 13.000/319.9 2.9 29. STEADY….1 72.4 0.1 1.1 44.0 3.000 &+ Total Capesize 2.3 1.999 15.8 0.999 50.9 2.3 0.3 2.5 0.3 0.8 340.999 120.999 Total Handymax 60.4 113.000 10.3 0.6 3.0 18.3 0.000/29.1 54.000 &+ Total Capesize TOTAL > 10.999 20.4 18.5 22.000/39.8 58.5 1.999 25.000/49.1 9.2 1.4 0.3 2.03 0.4 1.7 SMALLER!! -15% -14% -6% -15% -12% -60% Fleet statistics shown are in metric tonnes in metric tonne divisions.4 2.7 6.2 1.2 1.1 57.9 21.3 0.2 2.2 1.3 2.000/44.03 STEADY 0. 000/29.999 35.000/99.999 Total Handymax 60.999 160.999 90.999 255.000 39% 10% Combo Fleet Profile 20+ Total < 10.000/159.000 &+ Total Capesize TOTAL > 10.999 Total Panamax 80.380 454 758 1.000/99.999 120.000/39.000/59.999 30.000/39.999 20.000/89.000/119.000/29.000/319.999 45.999 160.999 25.999 35.000/199.000/19.999 30.000/119.000/24.999 20.999 90.000/44.999 70.999 25.999 200.999 200.999 Total Handysize 40.999 70.082 Age Profile 20+ 15-19 10-14 15 yrs+ 15 yrs+ 2005 Age Profile 0-4 % Fleet/ O'bk/ 0-4 No of Vessels 5-9 Nov 5-9 % Fleet 15-19 10-14 Fleet Ratios 145 17 5-9 0-4 Nov % Fleet/ O'bk/ 2005 15 yrs+ 15 yrs+ 1 1 1 1 100% 100% 100% 1 1 100% 100% 3 3 3 7 6 16 5 27 32 8 12 11 8 9 1 2 100% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 88% 38% 0% 9% 75% 0% 100% 0% 100% 86% 56% 40% 4% 9% 17% 9% 50% 1 6 7 3 22 25 3 15% 13% 63% 83% 2 91% 25% 11% 3 6 9 2 1 3 25% 1 4 89% 100% 4 4 5 10 10 2 1 2 8 1 100% 223% 39% 636% 733% 17% Fleet Ratios 100% 100% 14% 100% 44% 60% 81% 78% 38% 8% 6% 6% 7% 25% 5% 9% 3% 22% 377% 54% 2 18% 14% 45% 20% 4% 9 7 23 10 43% 19% 26% 10% 2% 44 19 27 10 2 2 51 31% 102 62% Fleet statistics shown are in metric tonnes in metric tonne divisions.000/49.000 10.000/69.000/44.999 120.999 50.000/79.Bulkcarrier Fleet Size/Age Profile Bulk Fleet Profile 20+ % Fleet No of Vessels Age Profile Age Profile 15-19 10-14 Total < 10.000 &+ Total Capesize 60% 72% 59% 51% 56% 71% 60% 43% 14% 9% 22% 55% 7% 25% 28% 12% 50% 27% 7% 9% 25% 0% 16% 8% 5% 8% 8% 8% 13% 8% 21% 6% 4% 10% 24% 3% 10% 2% 0% 10% 21% 10% 42% 50% 25% 15% TOTAL > 10.770 466 482 432 1.999 45.999 100.212 46 25 10 228 346 53 8 4 720 1172 1232 6.999 15.000/14.999 50.999 255.000/19.000/24.000 10.000/319.999 320.000 5-9 0-4 20+ 6% 5% 11% 9% 0% 6% 7% 21% 16% 3% 14% 16% 12% 14% 11% 24% 0% 38% 9% 8% 25% 25% 19% 15% 12% 19% 19% 13% 5% 14% 13% 48% 8% 24% 5% 35% 24% 15% 24% 10% 15% 33% 9% 0% 50% 23% 11% 146 6% 259 3% 280 13% 408 23% 231 6% 347 11% 1671 2% 199 16% 67 76% 40 30% 306 1% 248 43% 54 27% 302 43% 13 40% 3 30% 5 0% 61 42% 24 32% 5 0% 2 0% 27% 113 11% 19% 20% 2392 15-19 10-14 19 18 39 64 33 61 234 100 28 16 144 107 20 127 1 1 47 33 22 4 1 109 614 14 17 51 70 1 29 182 99 78 12 189 72 94 166 5 6 86 31 4 2 1 135 672 36 43 90 149 52 22 392 59 231 36 326 24 262 286 7 6 1 34 113 5 27 22 16 105 94 27 291 9 78 328 415 3 328 331 20 10 3 68% 77% 67% 59% 64% 84% 69% 64% 20% 13% 33% 78% 10% 35% 30% 12% 60% 47% 16% 51% 75% 25% 31% 151% 107% 167% 500% 109% 49% 28% 2 168 195 242 359 476 796 411 486 2.000/89.999 100.999 Total Handymax 60.000/34.999 Total Panamax 80.000/14.000/69. Clarkson Research Studies Page 18 Nov-05 .999 15.000/199.000/254.000/79.000/34.000/59.000/49.000/254.999 Total Handysize 40.999 320.000/159. 2 1.6 13.8 4.9 1.3 2.1 0.4 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.999 30.000/14.2 1.4 0.9 1.000/39.999 25.5 69% 78% 67% 59% 64% 84% 69% 64% 20% 13% 31% 77% 10% 33% 30% 12% 62% 46% 17% 52% 77% 27% 31% 147% 103% 176% 465% 99% 86.999 20.7 17.000 Million Dwt 20+ Combo Fleet Profile Total < 10.0 44.9 0.3 22% 25% 94.4 3.000/119.4 8.8 10.000/29.0 13.2 3.8 1.0 8.3 1.1 1.999 25.999 50.8 0.6 22.6 8.1 0.6 8.2 0.4 % Fleet 15-19 10-14 Fleet Ratios 25.000/99.0 1.999 35.7 0.9 4.999 320.3 20.0 20.5 4.1 0.1 2.5 Age Profile 15-19 10-14 15 yrs+ 15 yrs+ 2005 45.7 6.3 115.5 11.7 0.000/24.3 0.000/59.999 35.000/34.5 0.999 70.03 100% 100% 0.999 255.3 20.7 5.1 0.7 19.0 2.999 Total Panamax 80.000/319.999 120.999 255.000/319.3 2.03 0.000/69.01 0.2 13.2 90% 28% 11% 0.7 4.9 56.8 2.1 2.1 19.4 11.000/69.000 &+ Total Capesize TOTAL > 10.000/79.000/254.000/89.6 Fleet Ratios 5-9 0-4 Nov % Fleet/ O'bk/ 2005 15 yrs+ 15 yrs+ 100% 100% 0.1 1.02 0.3 1.999 200.9 40% 48% 73.999 Total Panamax 80.8 65.2 1.999 Total Handymax 60.999 45.1 0.3 31.1 0.999 70.0 4.000/44.7 1.3 1.000/59.4 0.0 1.2 29.4 1.999 Total Handymax 60.000/39.6 Age Profile % Fleet/ O'bk/ 0-4 12.3 74.2 0.2 0.999 45.1 19.999 15.2 0.000 10.000/24.6 0.3 0.1 1.999 160.4 1.999 50.4 0.2 1.2 100% 8% 6% 5% 7% 25% 5% 9% 3% 23% 379% 64% 1% 229% 44% 626% 741% 15% 0.9 3.9 0.000/199.2 0.3 0.3 3.000/49.7 15.1 4.3 3.000 &+ Total Capesize % Fleet 5-9 0-4 20+ 14% 12% 19% 19% 13% 4% 13% 13% 48% 8% 23% 6% 34% 24% 15% 24% 9% 15% 32% 10% 11% 6% 3% 14% 23% 5% 11% 2% 16% 76% 33% 1% 44% 29% 44% 40% 29% 1.5 0.000/159.3 21.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.0 6.1 0.9 6.000/119.2 9.1 0.999 90.9 2.2 340.0 3.1 0.3 0.8 0.2 1.6 18% 20% 42% 17% 4% 1.5 0.7 24.8 3.000/99.9 6.3 0.1 33.7 41.000/49.1 7.8 11.7 8.6 27.3 0.5 37% 35% 20% 31% 11% 2% 3.000/89.1 60.1 11.1 1.3 2.1 4.000/159.1 5.000/34.000 Age Profile Age Profile 15-19 10-14 61% 73% 59% 51% 56% 71% 60% 42% 14% 10% 21% 53% 7% 23% 28% 12% 52% 25% 7% 9% 24% 8% 5% 8% 8% 8% 13% 9% 21% 6% 4% 10% 24% 3% 10% 2% 6% 5% 10% 9% 0% 6% 6% 22% 16% 3% 13% 17% 12% 14% 11% 24% 14% 10% 21% 10% 42% 53% 27% 17% 38% 9% 7% 23% 24% 18% 28% 12% 13% 20+ TOTAL > 10.5 10.2 1.8 0.000/199.2 6.9 0.9 0.9 15.9 22.0 42% 32% 0.7 1.2 86.3 1.4 7.4 4.1 48% 24% 28% 16.999 30.6 0.000/19. Clarkson Research Studies Page 19 Nov-05 .000/14.000/44.1 2.000/19.0 0.2 15% 13% 63% 83% 0.02 100% 100% 100% 0.6 5-9 0-4 20+ 0.1 0.Bulkcarrier Fleet Size/Age Profile Bulk Fleet Profile Total < 10.999 Total Handysize 40.999 100.999 20.2 0.999 160.6 Million Dwt Nov 5-9 0.000/254.6 0.000/29.0 22.3 6.8 1.3 0.2 1.6 89% 100% 0.01 0.000 10.6 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 87% 37% 17% 10% 78% 11% 100% 100% 14% 100% 47% 60% 82% 79% 37% 100% 86% 53% 40% 4% 9% 17% 10% 50% 0.9 6.999 120.1 6.999 15.2 24.999 200.1 0.7 55% Fleet statistics shown are in metric tonnes in metric tonne divisions.2 1.999 Total Handysize 40.0 1.4 19.999 320.1 0.4 3.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.999 90.6 4.1 0.4 3.4 18.000/79.5 15-19 10-14 0.2 22% 0.3 0.999 100. 000/44.3 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.7 36.6 1.1 0.999 25.1 6.4 15.6 6.2 13.4 0.9 30.2 2.0 2.7 35.4 16.4 3.4 6.1 0.7 36.9 2.6 3.9 0.2 0.9 2.000/19.0 2.1 12.000 Fleet Profile Total < 10.7 20.000/319.3 0.9 0.4 1.1 6% 5% 3% 4% 16% 4% 6% 2% 4% 50% 20% 0% 22% 15% 188% 90% 9% 0.999 35.2 0.999 120.0 1.1 0.1 13.6 0.000/79.1 0.6 0.000 No.8 6.2 0.000/49.4 1.999 50.2 13.1 6.999 45.8 68.3 15.2 7.1 13.7 0.999 70.4 1.000/319.1 0.9 6.1 0. DWT m.1 0.000/29.1 0.0 0.999 Total Handysize 40.3 0.7 0.0 12.1 0.000 &+ Total Capesize TOTAL > 10.1 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 13.1 0.4 1.8 70.2 0.5 1.7 15.1 0.999 255.000/24.999 320.1 0.999 20.0 1.1 0.000/89.2 0.999 15.3 5.6 Fleet statistics shown are in metric tonnes in metric tonne divisions.000/99.999 30.8 6.5 4.4 2.3 0.000/24.999 200.9 6.000/39.9 2.9 2.3 0.0 0.6 7.9 1.6 48.7 5.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 4.4 3.0 3.1 0.1 9. Clarkson Research Studies Page 20 Nov-05 .4 0.0 1.0 0.000/199.1 0.7 0.999 25.5 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.999 320.3 0.2 0.4 15.7 0.0 13.000/159.7 4.999 15.8 7.3 7.999 255.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 7.1 1.0 11.2 0.000/119.999 Total Panamax 80.7 68.3 0.000/159.4 65.3 0.7 14.7 33.9 15.4 2.8 12.7 0.2 0.8 3.0 1.6 14.0 1.5 14.000 &+ Total Capesize TOTAL > 10.0 9.7 0.000/254.0 5.1 6. DWT End of Year: End of month: 2005 2006 2007+ Current Orderbook for Oct % Delivery in: 2002 2003 2004 May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2005 Fleet 2005 2006 2007+ 0.4 2. vessels No.2 0.8 4.1 67.999 100.7 36.1 13.999 30.9 5.7 7.0 1.4 7.0 12.8 3.9 7.1 0.3 0.1 12.1 13.3 7.2 6.000/99.000/69.5 0.1 0.3 68.2 12.1 0.999 200.6 0.5 2.2 3.3 0.7 38.8 0.5 0.1 12.5 13.8 14.999 20.0 0.0 1.000/14.9 12.1 35.3 1.4 1.1 0.000/79.999 35.5 12.1 14.5 14.0 0.2 1.3 1.999 Total Handymax 60.0 12.9 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 25% 53% 135% 127% 31% 7.1 12.999 70.1 14.999 120.000/119.000/199.999 50.9 3.000/59.999 160.4 20.999 90.6 19% 4.1 0. vessels End of Year: End of month: Current Orderbook for Oct % Delivery in: 2002 2003 2004 May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2005 Fleet 11 8 4 33 50 11 117 10 23 119 152 2 90 92 5 2 8 8 1 31 80 14 142 11 21 170 202 2 174 176 35 3 3 14 13 30 84 17 161 8 10 248 266 2 186 188 79 8 1 15 19 15 34 76 25 184 10 19 236 265 2 175 177 89 22 1 15 19 17 36 68 24 179 10 21 234 265 2 167 169 88 22 1 15 18 16 34 65 23 171 10 23 229 262 2 173 175 89 22 1 15 18 16 33 66 21 169 10 21 221 252 2 174 176 91 22 1 15 17 16 32 68 21 169 10 21 220 251 2 169 171 90 22 1 14 17 18 32 67 21 169 10 21 211 242 2 165 167 89 22 1 6% 5% 4% 4% 16% 4% 6% 2% 4% 49% 18% 0% 22% 14% 193% 88% 10% 2 5 2 4 6 2 21 1 1 22 24 2 16 18 4 7 9 9 12 31 6 74 3 6 92 101 5 3 7 16 30 13 74 6 14 97 117 65 65 43 5 84 84 42 17 1 55 12 79 16 89 34 10 5 249 88 32 10 5 247 90 31 10 5 250 90 30 10 5 248 86 29 10 5 242 25% 55% 125% 125% 34% 41 7 133 95 34 10 5 256 7 1 74 83 33 10 5 219 12 96 38 21 10 5 134 435 653 834 882 862 855 847 839 839 14% 75 336 409 m.4 1.4 3.000/49.9 25.8 2.5 6.6 0.000/29.2 0.4 0.5 66.6 0.8 12.0 1.000/39.3 0.0 0.2 13.1 0.0 1.000/89.2 1.999 160.2 0.1 13.6 12.1 1.3 2.9 4.999 45.5 2.000 10.5 1.999 90.2 1.4 0.999 Total Panamax 80.0 0.0 3.000/34.Bulkcarrier Fleet Orderbook Fleet Profile Total < 10.5 12.1 0.7 36.3 6.999 Total Handymax 60.4 1.000/59.3 2.9 4.000 10.999 Total Handysize 40.000/44.1 0.000/254.8 4.2 0.3 0.000/19.0 0.4 1.4 3.2 0.000/14.999 100.4 0.2 4.3 0.2 10.8 4.6 2.3 0.000/34.5 2.8 4.000/69.5 6.6 0. 490 145.5 20.3 11.000 &+ Avg Capesize TOTAL > 10.0 58.9 13.000/24.000/99.000/19.0 11.4 14.6 18. Avg.8 10.999 30.3 7.7 43.7 28.940 23.3 15.3 189.9 26.5 14.4 26.4 226.8 182.856 96.0 22.999 20.5 14..5 17.4 18.5 13.348 67.4 32.4 14.351 21.5 14.1 15.082 168.9 289.109 191.5 24.999 Avg Panamax 80.5 13.4 45.2 22.4 9.1 14.4 32.4 14.3 173.0 23.716 168. Size/Age Dwt Years Speed/Cons Knots t/day Dimensions (m/cu.692 277.607 32.933 148.2 165.000/79.189 96.000/199.1 14.4 5.6 240.2 25.3 11.000/19.3 45.000/89.3 16.000 &+ Avg Capesize 12.6 13.162 305. Fleet statistics shown are in metric tonnes in metric tonne divisions.3 16.845 109.4 14.5 50.493 82.3 32.1 52.999 20.999 25.7 45..6 18.445 137.6 7.167 61.9 9.161 49.580 118.822 56.468 88.592 225.4 37.442 160.4 10.4 30.1 28.786 52.999 Avg Handysize 40.360 15.6 226.046 67.0 50.5 14.2 14.7 150.999 255.5 14.385 33.7 97.8 43.8 57.000/34.0 14.4 14.8 25.000/199.1 30.9 41.4 55.6 10.7 14.6 44.7 17.7 191.000 Avg.0 8.2 28.999 100.999 70.000/99.278 48.5 15.160 171.6 14.000/79.4 13.999 45.2 14.000/49.9 17.4 14. Size/Age Dwt Years Speed/Cons Knots t/day Dimensions (m/cu.4 36.1 10.178 14.7 13.8 14.999 Avg Handymax 60.7 155.867 26.999 320.1 45.486 61.4 14.6 20.1 27.999 120.999 90.000 10.000/69.1 31.999 30.2 14.0 13.9 56.504 84.9 52.4 44.000/69.925 54.7 8.533 0% 18.5 40.4 14.577 2% All parameters as of current month.6 14.7 32.159 74.4 14..6 17.050 189.4 33.000/119.7 238.999 45.8 225.4 19.999 255.5 15.5 21.3 240.2 32.000/89.8 241.999 15.1 41.000/254.587 41.3 280.2 32.9 11.205 84.3 14.000/14.999 35.2 259.440 27.762 333.8 8.Bulkcarrier Fleet Key Parameters Bulker Fleet Details .3 19.0 24.9 16.1 31.7 243.1 22.758 42.141 160.999 90.4 226.3 35.0 179.3 30.0 34.000/34.517 49.058 15.4 17.8 15.4 7.000 10.000/29.5 31.000/39.804 47.000/319.2 32.8 313.000/159.6 206.9 13.0 32.982 65.000/44.0 17.3 14.2 125.0 13.8 14.087 TOTAL > 10.8 9.1 14.000/14.8 162.4 44.9 21.21 9.5 336.5 17.0 10.999 50.000/59.1 34.0 286.4 14.3 7.7 121.487 183.5 220.999 120.000/29.2 32.6 41.3 14.0 12.304 78.999 320.9 194.6 20.2 18.7 87.000 56.999 Avg Handysize 40.3 25.037 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 15% 32% 52% 3% 3% 2% 20% 127.999 200.0 13.5 11. Clarkson Research Studies Page 21 Nov-05 .088 85.2 20.463 47.183 24.5 49.9 11.8 22.999 200.953 87.4 36.2 9.999 100.6 14.698 Combo Fleet Details Total < 10.000/254..0 35.439 17.999 Avg Handymax 60.3 42.7 15.649 202.934 74.2 11.8 12.6 12.8 50.453 110.0 42.4 15.032 7% 95.7 19.256 173.m) LOA Beam Draft 1 95% 96% 77% 1 11% 5% 0 4% 13% 1% 62% % of Grain Bulk Flt 13.000/49.000/44.2 36.0 36.6 26.5 14.3 19.999 160.6 186.m) LOA Beam Draft Geared Grain % 67% 81% 91% 95% 92% 84% Total < 10.060 121.999 25.832 55.4 30.649 37.8 17.999 70.000/159.7 262.2 54.5 13.6 12.000/119.693 213.3 340.6 12.7 243.0 58.038 27.000/39.9 65.3 198.9 22.873 46.6 17.999 160.174 71.8 30.5 14.328 43.671 26.6 24.2 38.000/319.8 12.1 169.8 13.272 17.7 53.999 Avg Panamax 80.999 50.2 309.0 23.3 13.999 15.4 234.000/24.5 28.2 28.914 81.4 10.0 57.5 16.779 92.1 14.0 271.8 32.1 194.600 46.7 17.9 189.3 22.8 14.5 43.1 36.000/59.3 14.8 53.464 35.3 247.4 191.7 14.999 35.560 65.023 0% 0% 26.0 189.4 16.7 19.2 32.3 21.622 109.202 29.3 21.3 37.8 31.6 327.2 14.256 65..495 76.7 11.3 133.585 58.2 14.7 11.2 31.599 99.880 22.3 22.6 248. 0 40.0 11.743 7.504 35.847 5.5 10.000 12.56 15.48 5.5 12.5 2003 24.5 9.0 27. Freight Rates (Avg.890 9.29 20.8 19.570 14.250 51% 49% 54% 26% 64% 23% -1% -23% -18% -22% -30% -28% -33% -28% 64.5 26.938 11.34 25.5 27.3 10. 8.8 23.488 6.6 43.043 7.0 25-30K.44 19. 3 yr t/c.5 28.0 24.450 12.350 16.3 11. Year End Newbuilding 170K 5 yr old.941 9.0 29.870 16.06 26. Year end Newbuilding 50K 5 yr old 45K 10 yr old 42-45K Handysize Market.250 13.61 8. $m.5 8.819 6.400 11.0 22.$/d) 17K MPP 5..0 9.0 25.54 8.0 7.04 35.3 45.44 27.759 8.75 14.969 11.74 6.754 18.034 9.893 12.561 7.0 54.01 20..$/t) 145k Tub-Rott (ore) 145k Tub-Japan (ore) 137k R.0 26. 2004 Annual Freight Rate (Avg.138 13.69 7. Year end (*20 year old from 2002) 15.38 11.3 9.474 8.98 36. Freight Rate (Avg $/d) 40K.528 15.454 31. R. USGulf-Rdam 52k.829 20-25K Geared MPP 6.369 15.3 40.61 12.750 15.139 34.5 30.0 28.538 15.60 26.65 33. $m.5 14.125 10.088 8.391 34.00 11.500 14. Pacific R/V Avg.5 9.955 12.0 62.242 8.70 25.211 7.350 16.204 7.84 8.47 37.142 7.0 38.56 7.093 7.178 7.$ pd (1990-built) 150k dwt 1 yr t/c.0 14.0 15.477 9.5 36.42 9.000 13.5 1.883 25. $m.018 30K.0 18.0 31.Bay-Sp.000 14.950 14. Annual 1999 4.700 11.29 15.0 59.0 20.960 13. 22.4 20.444 10.321 6.763 19. Atlantic R/V 40K.76 19. $ pd Prices.410 7.3 12.54 26.20 40.964 8. USG-Jpn HSS 52k. $ pd 5..618 12.0 24.0 22.0 25.5 14.50 20.0 1999 2000 11. 150K Panamax Market.688 -6% 0% 3% 4% 2% -8% 2% -34% -30% -18% 18.556 6.44 7.5 27.111 33.0 24..73 6. Aug Sep Oct 24.966 34.0 20.5 30.5 29.. $ pd 3 yr t/c.563 14.125 27.50 10.20 14.800 12.0 21.938 13.090 12.96 21.45 35.938 14.5 17.973 9.650 18.98 11.8 26.25 16.779 20.5 0% 13% 5% 3% 0% -28% 4% -7% Page 22 3 Mths 6 Mths Nov-05 .Commercial Bulkcarrier Data Capesize Market.56 9.0 28.5 17.0 51.0 36.824 7.532 12.19 11.807 7.13 15.Earn.100 8.25 19.985 8.44 14.850 11.5 8.0 17.604 6.900 23.69 13.377 5. $ pd 6.869 6.108 30K.0 51.0 Jul 2000 2001 8. $ pd 5.205 28.08 8.30 22.270 17.300 16.5 21.5 9.875 19. 2004 Jul Aug Sep Oct 6.0 32.0 11.05 58.5 16.22 13.135 6.350 11.938 24. $ pd Prices.609 18. Nopac-Japan 63k.577 7.11 10.689 40.122 22.988 10.59 25.847 14.762 12.5 30.5 -10% 2% 23% -13% -21% -14% Monthly 2001 3 Mths 6 Mths Jul Annual 1999 Sep Monthly 1999 19.5 48.5 2003 27.000 14.000 13.350 14.563 10.63 43.0 18..958 8.$ pd (1998-built) 1 yr t/c.0 37.459 29.321 12.427 30K.0 3.0 -5% -5% -11% -13% -15% -27% Monthly 2001 2002 13.850 16.688 -3% 9% 41% 26% 13% 6% -7% -33% -37% -28% -30% -33% -32% -25% 34.0 22.14 21.000 11. Far E.256 8. 10 year old.Earnings $ pd 1 yr t/c..5 36.438 12.7 16. $ pd 3 yr t/c.0 27.775 16.43 9.8 12..592 11.625 20.07 8.0 25-30K.600 6.450 15.500 11.318 26.298 11.413 34.8 15.946 7.100 27.5 15.63 16.8 38.566 5.-Cont 40K..837 6.5 2004 2000 Oct 37.Earn.0 31.0 26.90 14.261 13.08 21.56 20.$/t) 55k.0 2.463 49. 150K 10 yr old.0 Clarkson Research Studies 2001 Monthly 3 Mths 6 Mths % Change.3 46.54 14.860 17.500 16.0 16.68 24.550 18.3 24.970 15.3 8.050 27. $ pd Prices.566 13.0 28..Med (coal) Avg.47 9. $m.26 13.525 16.0 22.220 20.1977 built/20 YR old* 2.0 19.00 15.0 26.33 24.3 40.025 10.Bay-Rott (coal) 135k Q'land/Rott (coal) Avg. 1 yr t/c.83 18.135 8. $ pd. Cont-Far E.284 19.0 19.0 16. 150k dwt.51 58.198 14. Year end Newbuilding 75K 5 yr old.0 2004 36.0 26.907 28.5 Aug 3 Mths 6 Mths % Change.400 25.90 46.0 59.5 20.310 15.94 20.15 17.5 2000 2002 2003 7.883 8.694 16.40 6.5 13.0 28.875 Annual 2002 % Change.756 13.0 11.513 8.450 13.39 38.999 9.541 8. 6 mth t/c.550 12.5 36.188 18.754 7.872 22. Newbuilding 27K.375 12.91 12.50 30.81 23.81 11.900 9.0 59.69 36. 73K 10 yr old 69K Handymax Market.275 7.996 12.369 23.0 11.300 10.0 9.802 12.5 2002 2003 7.365 38.777 7.5 36.35 5.875 13.350 16. 3 yr t/c.5 11% 19% 21% 13% 28% 18% 9% -37% -24% -24% -33% -40% -42% -22% -6% -6% -4% -10% -21% -28% % Change.513 7.582 15.238 6.0 5. Freight Rates (Avg.323 7.5 39.0 36.. 5 year old 11.095 10.284 6.05 20.479 17.0 19.832 6.281 12.060 17.43 19.5 15.421 14.991 8.5 52. 40K.8 Jul Aug Sep Oct 19.619 17.569 Prices.5 20.700 13.065 9..0 30K..86 5.563 15.0 54. 59 1.69 2.18 4.94 4.50 25.63 Total Freight Handymax Costs.34 4.73 8.38 34. The Narvik/Rotterdam iron ore route continued to lead the way.59 5.08 2. % 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 19% 14% 41% 21% 3.96 4.57 0.64 0.26 3.85 Oct Total Freight W.59 2.44 20.50 17.66 2.7%S 135.63 Capesize… In October.95 2.75 19.47 7..74 16.SPOT BASIS source CWI (low range FOB) B'var 6.53 1. Av.).70 16.. Scrap .000 t/mile.0 9.Aust/Japan Iron Ore Bolivar/Rotterdam Coal Q'land/Rotterdam Coal R. Oct 58.74 2.78 4. Clarkson Research Studies Page 23 Nov-05 .74 7.0 3. Steam Coal .29 1. month. 31-4% vol 0.31 64.68 1.90 Oct 265.47 2. Cape coal transport cost increased by 10% to $2.48 4.56 2. with transport cost rising by 21% to $7.38 3.26 Av.20 33.60 2.47 4.30 4.48 7.04 2.73 1.64 2. S. Delivered Cost $/t Scrap Scrap Coal Coal HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! Av.31 26. Cape T'port Cost Oct This Month. Australia= Hamersley fines.000t Grain-$/t (FOB source IGC 54.63 11. Handymax… Handymax costs rose too.41 2.0 1..42 2.66 3.03 1.13 3.43 2. Coal Newcastle/Japan Coal R.66 2. Scrap shipping costs made a modest advances while coal transport costs increased by over 20%.Transport Costs Transport Cost By Ship Size $ per kilo Tonne-Mile *.44 5.02 5.96 56. 16.500t parcel. 10. Sep % 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 22% 15% 29% 46% 23% 50% 33% 30% 9% 0. Brazil= Itabira fines.20 3. Delivered Cost $/t 77. The cost of transporting maize US Gulf/Rotterdam increased by 20% over last month.15 4. 6200kcal/kg.01 5.51 66.63 53. Commodity costs based on following assumptions: Iron Ore.. Transport Cost ($ per '000t/m) STEADY HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! 2% 6% 22% 24% Delivered cost= C&F price (sum of freight & commodity cost) prices avg.80 3..80 1.40 5.42 7.75 137.30 3.max 8. influenced by the larger vessel sectors.86 8.0 Capesize Costs.50 58.27 2.29 1.500t parcel).Med Coal USGulf/Rott Maize USGulf/Japan Maize Nopac/Japan Wheat P'max Coal T'port Cost P'max Grain T'port Cost Rott/Taiwan USEC/Turkey Newcastle/Japan Australia/India Av.28 2.10 4. Gulf-US No.96 Total Freight 50. N'castle 6300kcal/kg. Sep H'max T'port Cost Oct This Month.43 6.92 2.31 52.76 3.75 3.75 per 1.39 4.01 2.39 6.04 51.000t (FE=64% equivalent).97 2.80 5..85 per 1..38 249.43 2.02 2.45 2.50 30.86 3.3 Yellow maize.86 1.43 3.37 3.450kcal/k Q'Land 6500kcal/kg (ex Glad.source Metal Bulletin basis HMS1 33.CONTRACT PRICE $/t 145.28 159.37 1. 16..35 2.23 8.34 4. transport costs increased notably for all the routes we cover.94 124.18 3.65 4.42 56.24 4.75 2.11 3..01 18% 21% 13% 17% 20% 9% 12% 15% 15% 18% 10% Av.32 2.Afr. Av.39 4.Bay/Sp.12 1.09 6..93 1.44 2.89 5.50 159..25 6.75 22.40 4.32 1.21 3.90 4.57 2.79 3.14 46. Av.0 Cost in a P'max 7.20 7.24 1.Aust/Rott Iron Ore Narvik/Rott Iron Ore Tubarao/Rott Iron Ore Tubarao/Japan Iron Ore W. Panamax… Panamax costs also showed significant increases during October. as coal transport costs and grain transport costs rose by 12% and 11% on last month respectively.63 16. '%'= freight cost as % of Delivered Cost.83 1.08 0.15 5.05 5.26 Transport Cost ($ per '000t/m) P'max T'port Cost Oct This Month.01 Transport Cost ($ per '000t/m) HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! HIGHER!! FIRMER HIGHER!! HIGHER!! 15% 12% 13% 8% 20% 14% 4% 12% 11% Av.25 60.91 4.73 1.97 2.0 Cost in a Cape Apr-95 Jul-95 Oct-95 JanApr-96 Jul-96 Oct-96 JanApr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 JanApr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 JanApr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 JanApr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 JanApr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 JanApr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 JanApr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 JanApr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 JanApr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 0.0 Cost in a H..39 8.70 5.28 34.Bay/Rotterdam Coal Q'land/Japan Coal Cape Ore T'port Cost Cape Coal T'port Cost Panamax Costs.97 6.20 0. Sep % 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 29% 37% 31% 29% 16% 31% 16% 1.09 3.49 2.000t/mile..0 4.0 6. Av. Coking coal SPOT BASIS (Q'land/Japan Cape) ex Glad.84 4.25 12.0 5..20 9.58 1. Nopac-Western White wheat FOB Pac.31 15.62 1.0 2. USG 6950kcal/kg.61 3. Delivered Cost $/t Bolivar/ARA Coal Newcastle/Cont.17 4.28 2.14 150.50 55.17 2.13 6. tonnes Nevertheless.4 1. The information in this report may not be reproduced without the written permission of Clarkson Research Studies. This is especially true when the global economy is performing well.4 2005/06 2004/05 2003/04 0. Tel: (44) (020) 7334 3134 Fax: (44) (020) 7623 0539 Telex: 8812927 CLTNKA G E-mail: sales. It accounts for about a half of US soybean exports for the whole marketing year. it has been a major support to the shipping industry. in response to the bird flu induced weakening of demand. it is unlikely that the availability of soybeans will become an issue as the marketing year progresses.6 0.Commodity Countdown An Eventful Year for Soybean Exports exports. there will be sunshine after the rain.J. so far this marketing year.6 1. plus postage.G.uk Web-site: http://www. the world’s second and third largest soybean exporters.G. But if the bird flu factor is limited or short term and buyers have mis-read the market things could change rapidly. So. LONDON EC3R 6HE. no liability can be accepted for any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information contained herein. creating a dark shadow over the poultry industry.Brough S.8 m. then the United States’ status as No. 1. split into twenty size groups. Lower Thames Street. St. bird flu made its presence felt. once soybean prices have reached bottom and the threat from bird flu is rolled back.net http://www.P.Bland Dry Bulk Trade Outlook is published twelve times a year. thanks to good weather during harvesting. as usual. this year. New market year . and consequently. which then created severe logistical problems for grain and soybean Ample supplies US Soybean Weekly Net Sales 1. Magnus House. just one week later. If that volume is realised.co.2 week25 week23 week21 week19 week17 week15 week13 week11 week9 week7 week5 week3 week1 0 Source: Clarkson Research Services Meanwhile. .crs@clarksons. What made this happen? However. 3. we know that the impact of bird flu could be short lived and that it might not be long before there is a recovery in meat demand.Collins R. for example the BSE crisis. Traders and ship owners could well see the benefits of the peak in US soybean exports delayed until later in the season. However. commodity news and developments in the markets. Elphick M. which shows the export of US soybeans on a weekly basis.Emmott I. The fourth quarter is the boom season for US soybean exports. 1 soybean exporter would remain unchallenged. Needless to say.D. By the week ending October 27.8 0. Sunshine after the rain From past experience. Graph of the Month Dry Bulk Trade Outlook. Last month. accumulated US exports to EU were only 32% of the figure registered at the same time last year.clarksons.com Managing Director Publisher Editor Analyst Research Services Production Dry Cargo Capesize Coal Grain Panamax Handymax Freight derivatives Martin Stopford Cliff Tyler Jin-Hyun Bae Cheng Zhang Steve Gordon Preet Patel R. hurricanes caused significant disruption to US Gulf ports and their supporting barge systems. And. when port and barge operations got back to normal levels. It illustrates the point that weekly exports so far this marketing year are lower than those in past two years. the export peak has not reached the levels of previous years. the USDA forecasted that exports for the 2005/06 marketing year would reach 30. the US soybean crop provided well. and in the demand for soybean and other feed grains to support it.2 1 0. This is reflected in our Graph of the Month. So it is not very surprising to see that as prices drop. It is available on subscription at a price of £440 a year. harvests in Brazil and Argentina. import levels have been further restricted as buyers have seen an opportunity by holding back on purchases for as long as they could. Whilst care has been taken in the production of this review. Its impact was most evident in the EU.Poyntz N. There is also a monthly analysis of the fleet & orderbook. then buyers will return to the market and exports will rebound.Grimwade D. Consequently.a hard beginning Earlier this year. helping maintain ample supplies. over soybean imports. It reviews dry bulk supply & demand.crsl. England. are also believed to be quite good. November 05 Published by: Clarkson Research Services Ltd. Exports did not start to pick up until October 6.3mt.