Introduction The debate over relationship between population growth and economic development is there since the muchcriticized theory of Malthus in 18th century. Economist focused on the size of population and the growth of nation, but the composition of population age structure was not considered until the study of Coale and Hoover (1958), but in recent years, demographers Bloom et al have studied the type of composition of age structure of population and its effect on economic growth and the concept of “demographic dividend” emerged. Demographic dividend is defined as a rise in the rate of economic growth due to a rising share of working age people in a population. This phenomenon occurs with a falling birth rate and the consequent shift in the age structure of the population towards the adult working ages. It is also commonly known as the demographic gift or bonus or demographic window. The demographic dividend, however, does not last forever. There is a limited window of opportunity. In time, the age distribution changes again, as the large adult population moves into the older, less-productive age brackets and is followed by the smaller cohorts born during the fertility decline. When this occurs, the dependency ratio rises again, this time involving the need to care for the elderly, rather than the need to take care of the young. In addition, the dividend is not automatic. While demographic pressures are eased wherever fertility falls, some countries will take better advantage of that than others. Some countries will act to capitalize upon the released resources and use them effectively, but others will not. Then, in time, when the window of opportunity closes, those that do not take advantage of the demographic dividend will face renewed pressures in a position that is weaker than ever. Window of demographic opportunity in India India is in the midst of a major demographic transition. That transition started about 40 years ago and will likely last another 30 years. As a simple quantitative matter, about a quarter of the projected increase in the global population aged 15–64 years between 2010 and 2040 will occur in India. The working-age ratio in the country is set to rise from about 64 percent currently to 69 percent in 2040, reflecting the addition of just over 300 million working-age adults. This would make India—by an order of magnitude—the largest single positive contributor to the global workforce over the next three decades. Another estimate by Ian Pool suggests that by the year 2020, 136 million Indian youngsters will join the global workforce. Compared to this enormous number which accounts 17% of total global workforce, China will add only 23 million people and the USA will increase its working age population by 11 million during this period. India’s total population (currently a little over 1.2 billion) is projected to grow by as much as the total current population of the US. The report of technical group on population projection shows the change in population and age structure composition in India. Comparing two point of time it is seen that the base of the population pyramids shrinks in 2026 and population concentrates on middle ages. So as a result the dependency ratio will be falling significantly. In this falling dependency ratio young dependency will contribute the lion’s share. As the dependency ratio falls more resource will be released which can be used for investment purpose. The population pyramid for 2026 shows the concentration of huge population on working age group. If properly trained this population 1 2 .Source : Report of the technical group on population projection. RGI. 39 will contribute the largest share in global labor force supply and can control global labor market.31 Tamil Nadu 27.4 8.63 West Bengal 23.77 29.9 0.85 31.7 7.83 29.46 29.51 28.17 Karnataka 24.9 Assam 21.59 NE states 21. Percentage share of States in total projected population increase during 2001-26 0. If the surplus resource is invested it will bring forth economic growth.9 2. It is because during the periods of low dependency ratio resource is released. 3 .Table: 1 States Himachal Pradesh 24. On the other hand period characterized with high dependency ratio leads to slow growth as most of the income is consumed. then starts increasing. Dependency ratio is resultant of child dependency ratio and old age dependency ratio.57 30.5 1. Dependency ratio It is well known that a low dependency ratio leads to high growth rate in the economy.05 39. The time period (2010-2040) will be the period of opportunity for India.29 31.8 4.21 Gujarat 23.11 Maharashtra 24.2 Median age of projected population during 2001.51 Source: Report of the technical group on population projection.1 2.92 26.5 6.55 32.3 9.31 34.37 India 22.69 37.68 Jharkhand 20.48 J&K 21.85 30.67 34.4 0.14 AP 24.7 2.2026 2001 2026 35.24 Chhattisgarh 21. Table two shows that both dependency rates have been falling and will be lowest at 2025.08 33.5 2.15 Haryana 21.44 34.48 35.76 Rajasthan 19.85 Madhya Pradesh 20. RGI.9 3.9 1 1.8 22.8 5 5.43 Uttaranchal 21.74 Bihar 19.3 2. Table two shows dependency ratio for India for different periods.4 2.19 Uttar Pradesh 19.58 33.8 37.14 30.22 Kerala 28.05 Punjab 24.1 34.95 Orissa 23. On the other advance states like Tamilnadu. This phenomenon helped the countries greatly in achieving an outstanding economic gain. Andhra Pradesh.2 %. If nourished properly. So-called poor or backward states will contribute a large share in this population. And here lies the problem and possibility of reaping this ‘window of opportunity’.Table: 2 Year Dependency ratio 73 74 76 78 79 77 74 72 69 68 64 60 48 50 Child dependency ratio 67 68 70 72 72 71 67 65 62 60 56 51 36 27 old age dependency ratio 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 12 22 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2025 2050 Source: Chandrasekhar et al (2006) Leaders and Laggards The above table shows the percentage share of contribution of Indian states in changing population. Past Experiences Economic support ratio for East Asia falls in 1950s and 1960s. For Bihar. But it rose rapidly at beginning of 1970s and continued for some time. Never before has income per capita grown so rapidly in such a large group of countries for such a prolonged period. Kerala. UP alone contributes 22. From the above discussion it is seen that poor states is going to contribute more in the ‘window of opportunity’. the table shows young population comes from UP where the median age is nearly 27 years and oldest population comes from Maharashtra where the median age is almost 40 years. Bihar. Gujarat and Maharashtra jointly contribute 27%. In words of David Bloom “EAST ASIA'S NEAR-TRIPLING of real income per capita between 1965 and 1990 is one of the most extraordinary economic phenomena of the twentieth century. it will bring off demographic dividend otherwise there will be a demographic nightmare. Again considering the median age of the population. Rajasthan and MP median age is almost 30 years where for the advanced states the average median is almost 34 years. Several economies in the sub region 4 . MP and Rajasthan jointly contributes almost 45%. The states of UP. Karnataka. that began this period as low. India has the largest number of people in any country in the world without access to education 5 . These are small economies and a population of these countries was also small compared to India.36 crore (40 per cent) children in the age group of 6-14 years remained out of school as on March 2005. 1. Heterogeneous population. nearly 40 per cent drop out at the primary stage. Still Indian economy is agrarian in nature. India needs to improve conditions of the basic support systems like education and health. The enrolment ratios of Scheduled Caste (SC). Diversity in India is a well known fact. This phenomenon famously known East Asian miracle . But infrastructure is not well enough to meet the future need. Another example was the emergence of Ireland ‘Celtic tiger’. bureaucratic system. Their challenge for human capital formation i. There will be a huge demand for education and health care system to produce good quality of labor. While close to 90 per cent children in the 6-11 age group are formally enrolled in primary schools. yet in some states classes average is one teacher per 80 children. many religions and faiths. This brought demographic transition in Ireland. The Diffidence in India Though it is true that these countries reaped the fruit of window opportunity but this will not be the case for India. Another fact is that huge part of this will come from rural India. different and regional political interest make the problem difficult for India. Scheduled Tribe (ST) and Muslim children (especially girls) still remain far lower than the national average.” Literature suggests that one-third in growth in GDP is contributed by this demographic factor. The prescribed norm of a school being available within the radius of one kilometer is still not being fulfilled. This challenge is tough hurdle for India.The main reason of their success is that they were able successfully to convert their labor force into human capital that worked as the engine for their economic growth. Ireland successfully used the window of opportunity and Irish economy received a stimulus and as a result Ireland emerged as ‘Celtic tiger’. Half of India’s schools have a leaking roof or no water supply. different culture. to educate the human resource and employing the work force were in smaller scale. caste and community problem. In 1973 ban on contraception was ended by Irish supreme court and as a result fertility decline rapidly. 1. small groups.e. first of all. Problems and Prospects To reap the benefit of window opportunity. Education in India Only 66% per cent of the Indian people are literate (76% of men and 54% of women). so many languages. 35% have no blackboardor furniture.or middle-income developing countries are now industrial leaders. and close to 90 per cent have no functioning toilets. They have to be trained properly. The official teacher-student norm is 1:40. These things will add different dimension about the problem to think about. For ever married women it is 56%. Since time immemorial. India homes the highest number of malnourished children in the world. for Muslims it was around 6. India contributes to fifth of the world’s share of disease.. reproductive problems. 54% women and 24% men suffering from anemia.11 to 1. HIV/AIDS.55 to 1. mental health have significant chance to rise.2 million adults living with HIV in the age group (15-49). GER for poor SC/ST works out to only 1.3 %. Less than one-third of adolescents (11-17 years) are in school (NFHS-3 2004). Infant and child mortality is still high Almost half of the children (48%) under five years of age are stunted. Of the drop-outs — for girls marriage is usually the reason — less than half have minimum literacy skills.B. Nearly 54% of the population in India does not have access to essential medicines. ranging between (20-24) % in China and Brazil. they are also the majority among the people below the poverty line. Among them 57% are from rural area and 38% women. it ranged only between 4. the so-called backward classes continue to be deprived of their rightful place in the Indian society. Disease that concentrate on the age (15-49) like T. gross enrollment ratio in higher education in India is quite it was only 11% in 2005 compared to 83% in US. For SC/ST group it was only around 6. Social Exclusion The term ‘social exclusion’ means the process by which certain groups are unable to fully participate in the life of their communities and consequences. 36% of women in the age group (15-49) have a BMI cut-off point (18.5). India has 5. 43% are underweight and 20% children are wasted. There are many problems in Indian social structure. GATS survey shows tobacco consumption is high among Indians Proportion of skilled health personnel is still low than required 3. If further subdivision is made on the basis of poor and non-poor.8 per cent whereas for female SC/ST group.1%) is among the lowest 20 in the world.84%.76 per cent. 2. Yet this group continues to receive inadequate attention. for female Muslims the GER was placed at only 5. It has been projected that burden of disease will rise significantly by 2020.35%.43 and 4. Health Scenario United Nations calculations show that India’s spending on public health provision. Arguably. These communities together account for 78. Though Indian education is considered as the third largest higher education system in the world after USA and China. 15% ever married women in India are overweight.1 per cent of the total population. a large majority of the people. The situation has not changed much since NFHS-2 (1998). The continuation of age-old division of 6 . as a share of GDP (5.89 % whereas for the poor rural SC/ST group it turns out to be at abysmally low levels of only 1. it would hinder growth potential of India. which is the very essence of the development process. even though it has been narrowing in recent years. 5. If a large majority of the populace is denied the educational opportunities to build their productive potential and if the bulk of the society is denied the opportunities to channelize their potential into higher productivity – confining them instead to traditional menial jobs on the caste lines. It would act as a hindrance to economic growth. Participation of Poor States Recent literature (Aiyar and Modi (2011). James (2011)) shows that so-called BIMARU or laggard will participate actively in contributing into working age population.labor along the rigid caste lines has no doubt given rise to the lack of flexibility and mobility. Investment in education and health. If the population cannot be trained and employed properly it would be a burden on the working age population. In India it is observed that participation of young women in gainful economic activity is typically less than that of young men. 7 . But most of the poor states characterized with a comparatively higher fertility level. It will increase dependency ratio and will increase the burden. Current scenario has not improved so much. If cannot handled properly this population will be like an explosive bomb. There is both problem and prospect. 4. The momentum of economic growth and sustained growth will be maintained it the growth process involve members from all strata of the society. This in turn affects employment possibilities. Female work force participation rate in higher in rural area than in urban area. This gives the problem a new dimension. there are the problems of lower levels of access to education and fewer opportunities for skill development for young women. If India wants to harness its window opportunity fully growth process should inclusive. Labor force participation for females is low compared to that of males. Work opportunity is higher in rural area as around home and firm. All these put the women at disadvantaged edge. Gender Dimension Almost half of the working. The gender gap in both literacy and education remains large. Most of the advanced states in India achieve fertility levels that move around the stability level. lengthy bureaucratic procedure.age population comes from female population. especially in some states. Expecting a radical change in their condition within a short time is like merely building castles in the air. These states experience a poor and backward socio-economic condition. The prospect is that if the country can convert its huge working age population into human capital it would be a great stimulus to the economy and it would be a catalyst to economic growth and development in the long run. inefficient and not-sufficient health care system. But possibility is there and that should be used. although even for educated unemployment. Table: 1 gives an outline about their participation. deficit in education. young women show higher rates than young men. They will produce a large share of this working-age population. narrow political problems in past decades. In addition. Without improving quality it will be difficult to provide sufficient jobs to meet the need of the population. Conclusion Benefit of demographic transitions show the rise in the relative number of bread. 8 . This social investment would help the country to reap the benefit of the window opportunity.Investment in education healthcare would provide them sufficient resource. hence contribute to economic growth. There is a tremendous possibility for the IT sector to make India the export power for software and IT based jobs. Demand for skilled would come from the county and from outside. It this turned out into reality there would high demand for skilled labor. Healthy and productive people earn more and can spend more for education. Business process outsourcing and knowledge process outsourcing are two emerging sectors in the new century. Recent trend shows India has great possibility to capture information technology based jobs. first needs to identify the specific needs of education sector. Due to decline in dependency ratio and participation of women in the work force results in increased GDP and improved standard of living. Due to the aging of population of industrial countries there will be a high demand of skilled labor from the industrial countries. So they are in high demand for young skilled labor. A huge chunk of this population will come from rural India where the school droop out rate is quite high. So the Govt. A number of studies suggest that health contribute positively to economic growth. Healthy people spent more time on work. Now most of the developed countries demographic transition is in the final phase. A huge demand for skilled labor force will come from these two sectors. But the initial condition is to assure a supply of skilled labor. it may not necessarily lead to an increase in productivity . So the country should try heart and soul to grab the fruit of window of demographic opportunity. Without formation of human capital and necessary infrastructure all efforts will be ended in smoke. Skilled workers are more productive. Healthy people are more productive. Access to health care also improves the quality of labor by improving mental and physical condition. The improvement in quantity and quality of labor would act synergistically to take the economy to a higher level of growth and prosperity. Another factor is investing in health. As a result population aging occurs. While the changing age distribution of the population can eventually lead to an increase in the supply of working age population. without significant improvements in the health status of the population (both of the working and the non-working age). Investment in primary and secondary education is the rural area. Absorbing the benefit of a decline in fertility and a huge working age population it is required to invest largely in education and health care. There is also a dark side. Investment in higher education will improve the quality of labor. These are the supply side.winners. Increased life expectancy generates saving provided the burden of disease across all age groups decreases other all income would be spent in income. If India fails to take this golden opportunity there may rise of problems related to political and social instability like Naxalism or other provincial movements. Demographic dividend would be converted into demographic nightmare. E.iips. 3.A. Economic and Political Weekly 41(49): 5055-5064. IIPS."Demographic dividends”.. IMF working Paper: WP/11/38. 8th Dr. D.(1958). (2008). Williamson. Chandrasekhar. (2003). Science (333):576-580. Bloom. Mumbai. Population Growth and Economic Development in Low Income Countries. 4.. J. Canning. WWW.. 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