CMA Global SovereignCredit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Contents Data: Methodology & Definitions ..................................................................................................................................3 Changes in CMA Sovereign Debt Coverage ................................................................................................................3 Top 10 Most Risky Sovereign Credits ..........................................................................................................................4 Top 10 Least Risky Sovereign Credits .........................................................................................................................6 Best Quarterly Performances – Percentage Change ...................................................................................................7 Worst Quarterly Performances – Percentage Change .................................................................................................8 Regional Focus: USA & UK ..........................................................................................................................................9 Regional Focus: Western Europe .............................................................................................................................. 10 Regional Focus: Emerging Europe ............................................................................................................................ 12 Regional Focus: Scandinavia & Nordic Region ......................................................................................................... 13 Regional Focus: Middle East & North Africa ............................................................................................................. 14 Regional Focus: Asia ................................................................................................................................................. 15 Regional Focus: Australia & New Zealand ................................................................................................................ 17 Regional Focus: Central & South America ................................................................................................................ 18 Global Ranking by CPD ............................................................................................................................................. 19 CMA Datavision™ Greek Bonds ............................................................................................................................... 21 About CMA & Contact Details .................................................................................................................................... 23 Usage, Redistribution & Publication of Data .............................................................................................................. 23 Disclaimer & Disclosure ............................................................................................................................................. 23 2 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Data: Methodology & Definitions This paper focuses on changes in the risk profile of sovereign debt issuers, with the intention to identify key trends and drivers of change. We have divided world debt risk into eight regions: USA & UK, W estern Europe, Emerging Europe, Scandinavia & Nordic Regions, Middle East & North Africa, Asia, Australia & New Zealand and Central & South America. In addition to identifying themes within each of these regions, macro trends across the sovereign debt sector are also discussed. CDS values are calculated by CMA Datavision – an independent Credit Default Swap (CDS) pricing service TM based on data collected from CMA’s consortium of CDS buy-side firms. CMA Datavision is the only CDS pricing service to provide independent, intraday price verification for CDS (single name, indices, tranches and quantos), Bonds and ABS. All spreads shown are five year mid PAR spreads which is not the normal convention that is quoted in the market. CDS quoting conventions vary according to market conditions and conventions. Par spreads are used given they can be computed consistently across all credits allowing cross comparison. Unless otherwise stated, data is as of the 29 March 2012 close. Record highs are determined by using closing values and do not factor in intraday highs. Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD) quantifies the probability of a country being unable to honour its debt obligations over a given time period. For sovereign CDS, this typically includes the probability of a restructuring of debt. Unless otherwise stated, all values are for the five year CPD. CPD is calculated using an industry standard TM model and proprietary credit data from CMA Datavision and is based only the price of the CDS and recovery assumption. Reference to ‘risky’ in this report is in terms of the CPD. CMA Implied Ratings are calculated using a proprietary model developed by CMA and input with CDS pricing data TM from CMA Datavision . Data Access: CMA provides independent, intraday pricing on approximately 1,400 single name CDS and CDS Indices. W idely used by traders, risk managers, treasurers and researchers in financial institutions across the world, CDS data is available directly from CMA or via our strategic channel partners www.cmavision.com/partners/. CMA Datavision™ Bonds provides independent pricing and market metrics for over 14,000 corporate, convertible and emerging market government bonds. Crucially, it includes liquidity and other contextual information, making it indispensable for front office, price verification and risk management professionals who need to measure transaction costs and pricing uncertainty, especially for hard-to-price bonds. For more information about how CMA can help you effectively monitor and manage your credit exposures please contact us at
[email protected] th TM Changes in CMA Sovereign Debt Coverage Deletions: ■ Greece following a default event. Additions: ■ Cyprus following inclusion in the index replacing Greece. 3 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Top 10 Most Risky Sovereign Credits Position Q1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Country Cyprus Portugal Pakistan Argentina Ukraine Venezuela Ireland Egypt Hungary 5 Year CPD (%) 63.7% 60.5% 46.4% 45.9% 45.6% 41.5% 39.5% 32.8% 32.2% CMA Implied Rating CMA_cc+ CMA_cccCMA_ccc+ CMA_ccc+ CMA_ccc+ CMA_ccc+ CMA_bCMA_b CMA_b 5 Year CDS Mid (bps) 1159.1 1135.8 829.6 812.1 855.2 715.6 579.2 552.0 544.3 Previous Ranking New Entry 2 (No change) 3 (No Change) 5 (Down 1) 7 (Down 2) 4 (Up 2) 6 (Up 1) 8 (No change) 9 (No change) 10 New Entry Spain 32.1% CMA_b 430.9 Note: CPD is a function of the recovery level which varies according the several factors and distance to default, e.g. th emerging markets assume 25%. Note that CMA historical data for Cyprus starts on 16 March 2012. Greece finally restructures its debt and is no longer in the top 10 risky table – however the sovereign remains risky as shown in the new bonds in CMA Datavision™ Bonds file. Cyprus replaces Greece and tops the 10 most risky. th Spain enters the table in 10 position as the spreads widen 431bps topping the worst quarterly performance table. ■ ■ ■ ■ Portugal ends a volatile quarter where spreads approached 1,800bps. Egypt ends the quarter 70bps tighter ahead of the presidential elections in Q2 2012. Spreads in Italy closed below 400bps to 390bps down from 486bps - this positive movement for the Eurozone overall was offset by the widening of Spain. Cost of protection against default in Venezuela continues to improve this quarter as it closes to 729bps with one year at 345bps and a short term implied rating of CMA_bb-. 4 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information 5 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Top 10 Least Risky Sovereign Credits Position Q1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Country Norway USA Switzerland Sweden Hong Kong UK Finland Australia Chile Germany 5 Year CPD (%) 2.0% 2.7% 3.6% 3.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4% CMA Implied Rating CMA_aaa CMA_aaa CMA_aaa CMA_aaa CMA_aa+ CMA_aa+ CMA_aa+ CMA_aa CMA_aa CMA_aa 5 Year CDS Mid (bps) 22.5 30.0 41.1 43.6 61.7 63.5 65.3 72.2 91.6 73.3 Previous Ranking 1 (No change) 2 (No change) 3 (No change) 4 (No change) 7 (Up 2) 9 (Up 3) 5 (Down 2) New Entry New Entry 10 (No change) A good quarter for the World’s least risky sovereigns, as they begin to revert back to levels seen prior to the Eurozone debt crisis. ■ ■ ■ ■ Norway keeps it’s spot as the least risky sovereign and returning to levels in the low 20’s. The UK had a good quarter moving up three positions tightening 40% over the quarter. Spreads in Germany improve a more modest 25%, perhaps reflecting continuing concerns over the cost of protection in Portugal remaining high and Spain entering the top 10 most risky. New Zealand exits the top 10 least risky, replaced by Chile whose spreads close at 92bps from 132bps. 6 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Best Quarterly Performances – Percentage Change Country Norway Sweden Switzerland USA Lithuania ■ ■ ■ 5yr Mid 30 Dec (bps) 44.8 77.2 68.0 48.9 363.1 th 5yr Mid 30 Mar (bps) 22.5 43.6 41.1 30.0 233.1 th Change % -49.7% -43.5% -39.6% -38.7% -35.8% Norway ends the year as the least risky Sovereign at 22bps with the cost of debt insurance halving during the quarter. A continuing commitment to low interest rates and signs of growth in the economy helped the USA return to CMA_aaa rating as spreads end the quarter at 30bps from 50bps. A very good quarter for investors long risk in Lithuania as spreads tighten to 232bps and an implied CMA_bbb+ rating. 7 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Worst Quarterly Performances – Percentage Change Country Spain Ukraine Portugal Netherlands Lebanon ■ ■ 5yr Mid 30 Dec (bps) 379.0 855.5 1155.9 117.9 465.5 th 5yr Mid 30 Mar (bps) 430.9 855.2 1135.8 114.9 446.3 th Change % 13.7% 0.0% -1.7% -2.5% -4.1% Q1 2012 was a good quarter as the cost of global credit protection overall comes down with only Spain wider on the quarter. The market will keep a close eye on Spain and Portugal over the quarter - with concerns that Portugal could be tempted to follow the route of Greece and restructure its debt. 8 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Regional Focus: USA & UK It was a very good quarter for the USA and UK, as spreads tighten 40% for both countries. ■ The raising of taxes and stricter government controls on spending in the UK has helped improve the cost of debt insurance. However growth remains sluggish and the economy weak resulting in a negative outlook by Moodys, the rating agency. The USA reported a 3% growth in Q4 2011, but slower growth in the Q1 2012, has prompted a continued commitment to low interest rates in a drive to return to 3% growth in the country’s $15 trillion GDP. ■ 9 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Regional Focus: Western Europe Spreads in Western Europe tightened overall as Greece finally restructures its debt, triggering the first debt default in the Eurozone and the ECB provided a €800 billion lending facility. ■ ISDA declared a credit event in Greece – an event that already priced into the CDS market and perhaps came as a relief to the holders of around €2 billion of notional contracts outstanding. However, the timing of the auction was not ideal as it came after the new bonds were trading with the new longer dated bonds trading at similar prices to the old. Nevertheless, the auction was completed successfully settling at 21.5bps, with the market needing to review the process to ensure less uncertainty in any future auctions. (See Appendix for list of all Greece Bond prices as of 30th March 2012.) Concerns Portugal could follow a similar path to Greece, saw the cost of protection peak to nearly 1,800bps before settling back to levels at the beginning of the quarter. The rally in Italy and Spain was followed by a gradual widening in Spain from 350bps to 431bps and Italy from 350 to 390bps towards the end of the quarter. Europe should perhaps keep a close eye on this trend and the cost of protection in Portugal to help avoid another crisis from occurring. Cyprus replaces Greece in the Index Roll. ■ ■ ■ 10 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information 11 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Regional Focus: Emerging Europe Emerging Europe tightened 25% on average as risks of a contagion spreading across the wider European region and Scandinavia recede. ■ ■ ■ Russia, Poland, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Latvia all tighten by around 35%. Implied ratings remain virtually unchanged as the overall group tightens in also. Ukraine spreads tighten to 840bps only 2% tighter on the quarter but it was enough to see the implied rating drop one notch to CMA_ccc+. 12 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Regional Focus: Scandinavia & Nordic Region ■ ■ ■ Sweden and Norway improve 44% and 49% respectively, Norway buoyed by higher oil prices. Denmark ended the session 12% tighter but implied rating dropping to CMA_a from CMA_aa as it fails to keep pace with the rally in its peers. The Icelandic economy continues it steady improvement closing the quarter below 300bps, at 277bps. 13 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Regional Focus: Middle East & North Africa ■ ■ CDS prices in the Middle East and North Africa improved 11% overall with Dubai and South Africa improving around 20%. Egypt finished the quarter at 548bps ahead of presidential elections in May. 14 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Regional Focus: Asia CDS prices improved 17% in the region aided by Europe and signs of growth in the USA. ■ ■ ■ Japan tops the region with a 31% improvement to just below 100bps from 142bps as the economy continues to improve, closely followed by Vietnam at 27%. South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines all tighten around 20%. Spreads in India tighten aggressively in the first half of the quarter but fail to break through the 300bps level. The second half saw spreads widen out again perhaps on growth concerns, ending the quarter only 5% tighter. Kazakhstan improved nearly 100bp to end the quarter at 207bps. Note: State Bank of India is used as proxy for India. ■ 15 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information 16 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Regional Focus: Australia & New Zealand ■ Australia and New Zealand tighten in highly correlated path this quarter. 17 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Regional Focus: Central & South America CDS spreads in Central and South America rallied strongly this quarter improving 22% overall. ■ ■ ■ ■ Peru tops the region with tightening of 27%. Argentina tests the 700bps level, only to widen again towards the end of the quarter. Cost of protection against default in Venezuela continues to improve this quarter as it closes to 729bps with one year at 345bps (short term implied rating CMA_bb-). Chile enters the top 10 least risky global sovereign credits. 18 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information Global Ranking by CPD Country Cyprus Portugal Pakistan Argentina Ukraine Venezuela Ireland Egypt Hungary Spain Italy Lebanon India (Proxy) Croatia Iraq Vietnam Bahrain Dubai Iceland Slovenia Romania Belgium Bulgaria Costa Rica Tunisia (Proxy) Morocco Latvia Lithuania Turkey Slovakia France Indonesia Kazakhstan Austria Israel Russia Philippines Poland Thailand CPD (%) 63.7% 60.5% 46.4% 45.9% 45.6% 41.5% 39.5% 32.8% 32.2% 32.1% 29.7% 27.5% 27.1% 25.2% 24.1% 22.6% 22.3% 22.1% 22.0% 20.5% 20.3% 18.7% 17.3% 16.8% 16.2% 15.8% 15.5% 15.5% 15.1% 14.3% 13.9% 13.9% 13.7% 12.9% 12.5% 12.4% 12.2% 12.1% 11.4% 5yr Mid (bps) 1159.1 1135.8 829.6 812.1 855.2 715.6 579.2 552.0 544.3 430.9 390.3 446.3 342.5 402.5 382.5 284.3 352.1 342.9 274.8 321.7 314.2 230.5 262.5 252.7 246.5 241.3 233.1 233.1 226.4 214.8 165.8 164.6 203.2 153.4 186.2 183.4 142.6 178.9 133.2 CMA Implied Rating Q1 CMA_cc+ CMA_cccCMA_ccc+ CMA_ccc+ CMA_ccc+ CMA_ccc+ CMA_bCMA_b CMA_b CMA_b CMA_b+ CMA_b+ CMA_b+ CMA_bbCMA_bbCMA_bb CMA_bb CMA_bb CMA_bb CMA_bb+ CMA_bb+ CMA_bb+ CMA_bbbCMA_bbbCMA_bbbCMA_bbbCMA_bbb CMA_bbb CMA_bbb CMA_bbb CMA_bbb CMA_bbb CMA_bbb CMA_bbb+ CMA_bbb+ CMA_bbb+ CMA_bbb+ CMA_bbb+ CMA_aCMA_cccCMA_ccc+ CMA_ccc+ CMA_bCMA_ccc+ CMA_ccc+ CMA_b+ CMA_b+ CMA_bb CMA_b+ CMA_bb CMA_bbCMA_bbCMA_bb CMA_bb CMA_bb+ CMA_bb CMA_bb+ CMA_bb+ CMA_bb CMA_bb+ CMA_bb+ CMA_bbb CMA_bbb+ CMA_bbb+ CMA_bbbCMA_bb+ CMA_bbb CMA_bbb CMA_bbb+ CMA_aCMA_bbb CMA_aCMA_a CMA_bbb+ CMA_a CMA_bbb CMA_aCMA Implied Rating Q4 19 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information South Africa South Korea Netherlands China Denmark Uruguay Malaysia Brazil Peru Qatar Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Mexico Japan Estonia Czech Republic Panama Colombia New Zealand Germany Chile Australia Finland UK Hong Kong Sweden Switzerland USA Norway 10.9% 10.5% 9.8% 9.7% 9.6% 9.3% 9.0% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.0% 7.8% 7.8% 7.5% 7.4% 6.7% 6.4% 6.3% 6.2% 5.7% 5.6% 5.4% 3.8% 3.6% 2.7% 2.0% 159.4 122.8 114.9 112.6 113.1 136.8 105.0 120.4 120.4 118.8 118.4 117.7 117.0 99.8 114.0 113.0 109.5 107.9 77.7 73.3 91.6 72.2 65.3 63.5 61.7 43.6 41.1 30.0 22.5 CMA_aCMA_aCMA_a CMA_a CMA_a CMA_a CMA_a+ CMA_a+ CMA_a+ CMA_a+ CMA_a+ CMA_a+ CMA_a+ CMA_a+ CMA_aaCMA_aaCMA_aaCMA_aaCMA_aa CMA_aa CMA_aa CMA_aa CMA_aa+ CMA_aa+ CMA_aa+ CMA_aaa CMA_aaa CMA_aaa CMA_aaa CMA_a CMA_a CMA_aa CMA_a+ CMA_aaCMA_a+ CMA_a+ CMA_aaCMA_a+ CMA_aa CMA_aa CMA_aa CMA_aaCMA_aaCMA_a+ CMA_a+ CMA_aaCMA_aaCMA_aa CMA_aa CMA_aa CMA_aa CMA_aa+ CMA_aa CMA_aa CMA_aa+ CMA_aa+ CMA_aa+ CMA_aaa 20 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information CMA Datavision™ Greek Bonds The table below shows 30 March 2012 prices for Greece Bonds. Entity Name Cur Cpn Matures Type Price Type Mid Bid/Ask th FR0000489676 GR0106007835 XS0208636091 XS0354223827 XS0165688648 GR0108010498 XS0142390904 FR0010027557 XS0165956672 XS0215169706 XS0160208772 XS0280601658 GR0128010676 GR0128011682 GR0128012698 GR0128013704 GR0128004612 GR0128008654 GR0133004177 GR0128014710 GR0133006198 XS0110307930 GR0133007204 GR0133008210 GR0338002547 GR0133005182 GR0338003552 GR0133009226 GR0133010232 GR0138005716 GR0138006722 XS0191352847 GR0138007738 GR0138008744 GR0138009759 GR0138001673 EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR 4.915 4.915 3.5625 4.057 4.495 4.495 5.46 4.68 4.59 4.028 5.014 4.218 2 2 2 2 5.3 5.3 5.3 2 2 6.14 2 2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2 2 2 2 5.2 2 2 2 4.5 13/09/2012 13/09/2012 21/12/2012 26/03/2013 02/04/2013 02/04/2013 30/01/2014 29/10/2015 08/04/2016 17/03/2017 27/12/2017 20/12/2019 24/02/2023 24/02/2024 24/02/2025 24/02/2026 20/03/2026 20/03/2026 20/03/2026 24/02/2027 24/02/2028 14/04/2028 24/02/2029 24/02/2030 25/07/2030 25/07/2030 25/07/2030 24/02/2031 24/02/2032 24/02/2033 24/02/2034 17/07/2034 24/02/2035 24/02/2036 24/02/2037 20/09/2037 Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash 42 42 41 38.5 36 36 34 38.5 32 33 26.5 31.5 24.5 23.5 22.5 21.5 22 22 22 21 20.5 20.25 20 20 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.75 19.5 19.5 19.5 18.95 19.25 19.25 19 18.9 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 5 4 2 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.125 1 1 1 1.1875 21 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information GR0138004701 GR0138003695 GR0138010765 GR0138011771 GR0138012787 GR0138013793 GR0138014809 GRR000000010 JP530005AR32 JP530000CS83 XS0071095045 JP530005ASC0 GR0128010676 GR0128011682 GR0128012698 GR0128013704 GR0128014710 GR0133006198 GR0133007204 GR0133008210 GR0133009226 GR0133010232 GR0138005716 GR0138006722 GR0138007738 GR0138008744 GR0138009759 GR0138010765 GR0138011771 GR0138012787 GR0138013793 GR0138014809 XS0165956672 XS0191352847 JP530000CS83 XS0147393861 XS0260024277 XS0192416617 XS0147393861 EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR JPY JPY JPY JPY EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR JPY EUR EUR EUR EUR 4.5 4.5 2 2 2 2 2 0 7.35 5 4.5 4.5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4.59 5.2 5 1.137 1.688 1.892 1.137 20/09/2037 20/09/2037 24/02/2038 24/02/2039 24/02/2040 24/02/2041 24/02/2042 15/10/2042 03/03/2015 22/08/2016 08/11/2016 06/12/2016 24/02/2023 24/02/2024 24/02/2025 24/02/2026 24/02/2027 24/02/2028 24/02/2029 24/02/2030 24/02/2031 24/02/2032 24/02/2033 24/02/2034 24/02/2035 24/02/2036 24/02/2037 24/02/2038 24/02/2039 24/02/2040 24/02/2041 24/02/2042 08/04/2016 17/07/2034 22/08/2016 15/05/2012 05/07/2018 10/05/2034 15/05/2012 Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Float Float Float Float Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Z-Spread Z-Spread Z-Spread Cash Cash Cash Z-Spread 18.9 18.9 19 19 18.75 18.75 18.75 0.6 38.5 33.5 38.5 28.5 20.5745 20.1625 19.6905 19.252 19.3625 19.0345 19.0075 18.62 18.4405 18.21 18.045 17.98 17.815 17.55 17.345 17.215 17.185 17.03 16.97 16.76 4116.5 2190.5 3572.5 57.5 24 24.5 1582 1.1875 1.1875 1 1 1 1 1 0.1 5 5 5 5 0.613 0.613 0.609 0.606 0.637 0.639 0.667 0.654 0.661 1.42 1.27 1.7 1.53 1.58 1.61 1.57 1.63 1.42 1.54 1.28 503 499 483 5 2 5 444 22 Credit Risk Report 1st Quarter 2012 Proprietary information About CMA & Contact Details CMA, the world’s leading source of independent, accurate OTC credit market data, has unrivalled access to information about what is actually happening in the CDS markets. It combines this unmatched breadth and depth of pricing data with market-leading technology to deliver clear and valuable information to financial institutions around the world. CMA is a wholly owned subsidiary of CME Group (www.cmegroup.com), the world’s largest and most diverse derivatives exchange. CMA DatavisionTM CMA Datavision is our intraday and end-of-day CDS pricing service, delivering independent, timely and accurate consensus-based pricing on OTC credit instruments. CMA provides pricing on approximately 1,400 single name CDS and CDS indices. 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