CHEMICAL AG: DEAD MAN WALKING NOW WHAT? In the end, evolution With its silent conviction, evolution has found cracks in the molecular strategies of our most effective herbicides and pesticides. Meanwhile, governments around the and policy ended the era world find it politically unacceptable to approve new chemicals that harm birds and of chemical agriculture, bees and find their way into the food we eat. With chemical companies in regulatory gridlock, nature out-smarted the $54 billion crop protection industry in under opening the door to a two decades. new way of farming. This isn’t a predication for the future. It’s the reality we face in agriculture today. The fall of chemical ag is happening at a time of soaring population growth around the world. Today, there are 7 billion people who need 12,400 trillion calories of food per day. We need a better way to farm—and fast. That’s where robots and the digital era in agriculture come in. This new wave of innovation in farming brings new tools like computer vision and machine learning to the field. Chemicals won’t go away tomorrow, but if we apply digital technology, we can tremendously reduce the use of harmful chemicals while meeting and exceeding the food requirements of a growing population. 2 Weeds: Enemy Number One T he ability to control weeds is essential to agriculture. Growers spend $25 billion every year on weed control. Despite ever- increasing doses of Roundup and the addition of other herbicides, resistant weeds have evolved, and the pipeline for approved replacements is dry. Farmers spray 310 million pounds of herbicide on corn, soy, and Industry Average Costs of cotton in the U.S. alone. Fertilizers add another 110 billion pounds of Launching a New Pesticide material per year. This and other chemicals used on the farm end up in rivers, accumulate in waterbeds, and infiltrate the food chain. So now we have a dead zone the size of Connecticut in the Gulf of Mexico. When consumers pushed back, government had to step in. In 1995, chemical companies spent $152 million on average to launch $152M $184M $256M $350M a new pesticide. Today, the price tag has soared to $350 million, and it can take12 years to get regulatory approval. At the end of that 1995 2000 2005 2015 process, major regions around the world still may not approve use of Source: Phillips McDougall, 2015 the new product. 4 2016 Resistant Weeds Are Spreading Fast $5B+ Weed control market for US corn & soy # cases of weed resistance to glyphosate, dicamba or 2,4-D Source: www.weedscience.org 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8+ Stratus 2012 farmer survey, USDA NASS Ready for Robots A rtificial intelligence and robotics are maturing just in time to intervene. Researchers in university labs, agtech investors, and startups like Blue River Technology are working hard to bring intelligent systems to market. Sensors, drones, data science, and smart machines all have key roles to play. Blue River’s smart The idea of applying artificial intelligence to crops might sound far- machines will eliminate fetched. Can a robot really decide how to care for a plant and then do whatever is needed on its own? With the right algorithms, processing 90% of the chemicals power, and rugged enough hardware, yes. We know it’s possible growers use today. because our fleet of smart machines is working lettuce fields in California and Arizona every day. Each one cares for 300,000 plants per hour. If you buy lettuce, there is a 1 in 10 chance we’ve cared for it. In the last two years, we’ve built a “see-and-spray” system that combines 3D computer vision, robotic sprayers that fire 40 times a second, and artificial intelligence to identify plants and act on them. We are deploying this technology in machines that eliminate 90 percent of the chemicals growers use today by replacing broadcast spraying with targeted controls. This means farmers spend less on chemicals. Better yet, crop yields go up when each plant is treated optimally. 6 Computer vision and machine learning identify the plants and decide what to do, and robotics technology allows the smart machine to take precise action in the field. Sprayers apply herbicides only to the weed and not to the crop or soil. Make Every I nstead of treating every plant as if it has the same needs—over- spraying entire fields just in case—we can increase yields by Plant Count optimizing care at the individual plant level. Every plant should get just what it needs, at the exact moment it needs the care. This is the way we would farm if we had the time to inspect every plant. Now we have the technology to do that, and it’s the only way forward. It’s a matter of applying the technology we have across more acres of different crops, at ever greater speeds. Every plant should get just Many thought this kind of automation wasn’t possible. We proved what it needs, at the exact them wrong. Smart machines are working in fields today, and this is moment it needs the care. just the beginning. This is where the future gets really interesting. The possibilities are endless when you combine the latest plant identification techniques with Blue River’s ability to take action in the field. Besides weed control, we see opportunities to apply fertilizer and other beneficial products just as precisely. With the quantity of food no longer in question, we can change the conversation to the quality of food we grow. What mix of nutrients is best to eat, and how can we improve the taste of each food we 8 harvest? As we reduce the amount of chemicals in the system, we can restore biodiversity, bring back bees and butterflies, improve water quality, and reduce the amount of energy that’s needed to farm. Technology can reverse the cycle, bringing higher profits to farmers and revitalizing rural communities. The shift to digital agriculture is underway now. Success hinges on whether we take a practical approach and collaborate with everyone involved. At Blue River Technology, we are out in the elements, building systems to withstand wind, rain, dirt, and heat. We are listening to farmers every day, walking the fields with them, and improving the tools they need to win the battle against weeds. We need to feed 2 billion more people by 2050—and do it in the face of global warming, water shortages, loss of biodiversity, and whatever new challenges lie ahead. But from where we stand, the future of food looks to be a bright one—and a healthier one for all. WWW.BLUERIVERT.COM