Assignment 2Submission Date: 9th June 2015 Case Problem 1: Forecasting Sales The Vintage Restaurant is located on Captive Island, a resort community near Fort Myers, Florida. The restaurant, which is owned and operated by Karen Payne, Just completed its thirds year of operation. During this time, Karen sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high-quality dining establishment that specialized in fresh seafood. The effort made by Karen and her staff proved successful, and her restaurant is currently one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants on the island. Karen concluded that to plan better for the growth of the restaurant in the future, she needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by quarter for up to one year in advance. Karen compiled the following data on total food and beverage sales for the seven years of operation: Food and Beverage Sales for the Vintage Restaurant ($1000s) Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Total Sales 1 6 15 10 4 35 2 10 18 15 7 50 3 14 26 23 12 75 4 19 28 25 18 90 5 22 34 28 21 105 6 24 36 30 20 110 7 28 40 35 27 130 Managerial Report Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Vintage Restaurant. Prepare a report for Karen that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following: 1. A graph of the time series. 2. An analysis of the seasonality of the data. Indicate the seasonal indexes for each quarter, and comment on the high seasonal indexes make intuitive sense? Discuss. 3. Forecast sales for first Quarter through fourth quarter of the eighth year. 4. Assume that first quarter sales for the eighth year turned out to be $29,500. What was your forecast error? If this error is large, Karen may be puzzled about the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. What can you do to resolve her uncertainty in the forecasting procedure? 5. Recommendations as to when the system that you developed should be updated to account for new sales data that will occur. 6. Detailed calculations of your analysis in an appendix to your report. This agreement was reached in order to reduce lead time by assuring LaPlace a regular spot in the supplier's production schedule. Under the present arrangement with the supplier. An analysis of optimum order quantity and reorder point. No quantity discounts are offered on this cable. Can it be improved? Include the following factors in your report: 1. Managerial Report Develop a report for management of LaPlace Power and Light Company to Evaluate the effectiveness of the current ordering system. Total Inventory Cost. Lutcher. Louisiana. the supplier requires that a minimum of 15. including inventory management. LaPlace. is managed. which delivers the electricity from the distribution pole to the meter loop on the house. the lead time would be about twelve weeks. Present Total Cost Optimal Total Cost . practically all of it is installed during the five normal work days. Without this agreement. The Southeastern storeroom has the space to store a maximum of 300.000 feet be on an order. and Bogalusa. Kenner. however. The Southeastern Division storeroom purchases the cable that this division will use. Associated with each cable shipment are ordering costs of $50. One material used extensively to provide this service is the 1/o AWG aluminum triplex cable.Case Problem 2: Inventory Control LaPlace Power and Light The Southeastern Division of LaPlace Power and Light Company is responsible for providing dependable electric service to customers in and around the areas of Metairie. Pontchatoula. The current cost of this cable is 41. this division will need 499. Hammond.500 feet of this service cable. Destreban. Amite.000 feet of 1/o AWG aluminum service cable. inventory carrying costs (including taxes) on all items in stores are considered to be ten percent of the purchase price per unit per year. investor-owned utility. Being a government-regulated. which include all the costs from making the purchase requisition to issuing a check for payment. 2. In addition. For the coming year. the Southeastern storeroom must take one-twelfth of its annual need every month. both the Louisiana Public Service Commission and its stockholders watch closely how effectively the company. Since this cable is only used on routine service work.4 cents per foot. 3 8 24.1 14 24.6 25.0 ounces of cereal.6 26 24.2 1.1 22 25.5 4 24 1.6 6 25.8 16 23.7 25.1 2.8 1.2 3.5 24.4 3 24.8 29 24.1 23.9 25.1 25 5 25.1 25 25.1 17 23. They also make hourly checks on the production process and 5 boxes are selected.5 14 23.1 23.1 25. this time using a larger sample size and taking more samples.5 25.0 11 25.2 24. Steele inspection department makes hourly checks on the production process.5 24 7 27.8 23.4 25.4 2.4 2.2 2.7 7 25.9 24. The results are shown in the following table.6 20 25.5 23. Sample Number Mean Range Sample Number Mean Range 1 25.6 24.6 18 23.9 10 24.2 24 25.1 24.9 10 25.2 26.4 24.4 1.4 24.3 25.5 24.2 15 24.4 2.6 2.1 3.6 2. He had calculated sample means and range values.2 .7 24 12 24.6 3.3 24.1 24 25.Case Problem 3: Statistical Quality Control STEELE BREAKFAST FOODS INC.1 2.1 24.1 12 25.5 2.1 4 25.6 2.6 25.2 23 23.7 15 24.7 13 25. Steele Breakfast Foods Inc.7 2. The results for 15 samples are reported below: Sample Number Weight-1 Weight-2 Weight-3 Weight-4 1 26.2 13 24.8 3 25.5 25.7 9 24.8 8 24 1.6 24. As a part of the hourly check.9 25.7 6 26. produces a popular brand of raisin bran cereal. four boxes are selected and their contents weighted.5 21 25.1 25 23.7 19 25.1 1.2 1.3 2 25.3 11 22.8 9 23.4 2.3 27.9 25.4 3.1 2.2 25.5 23 23.2 25.5 28 25.2 2 25. The package indicates it contains 25. To ensure the product quality.3 The professor suggested obtaining another set of samples.5 5 24.1 2. Managerial Report Consider the following questions. 1. and then write a brief report to Steele Breakfast Foods Inc. what impact do you think this would have on the capability of the process? . 3. based on the two samples. How did you conclude that the process was not capable based on the first set of samples? 2. Does the second set of samples show anything that the first set didn’t? Explain what and why. Assuming the problem can be found and corrected.