35A Case Study of Alibaba: “Control Your Destiny or Someone Else Will” Jeongsoo Han1, Miyea Kim, Woo-Hun Rhee, & Minah Lee Founded in China, Alibaba has emerged as one of the leading e-commerce companies in the world. The gross merchandise volume of Alibaba is greater than those of Amazon and eBay combined. Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba, has become one of the most respected Chinese business leaders. How did Alibaba turn its humble start into such great success? The main objective of this case study is to examine key success factors of Alibaba and to provide valuable implications. To make the analysis more formal and objective, the five stages of competition model (Kim 2005, 2011) was adopted for the study. The great success of Alibaba can be mainly attributed to its foresight and preparation for future opportunities from paradigm shift and its strategic intent to seize the opportunities. Jack Ma foresaw the impact of internet development and the flourishing potential for SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) in China and developed core competence with strategic intent before he launched Alibaba. This case study of Alibaba provides significant implications for companies and business leaders who seek to turn their small starts or hardships into successes or turning points. Keywords: Alibaba, Jack Ma, Foresight, New power preparation, Strategic intent “Never give up. Today is hard, tomorrow will be worse, but the day after tomorrow will be sunshine.” --Jack Ma Alibaba Group is described as a mixture of ―retailers like Amazon and eBay, financial services like PayPal and search engine giants like Google.‖ Founded in China, Alibaba has emerged as one of the leading e-commerce companies in the 1 Jeongsoo Han is Researcher, School of Business, Yonsei University (e-mail:
[email protected]). Miyae Kim (corresponding author) is Researcher, School of Business, Sungkyunkwan University (e-mail:
[email protected]). Woo-Hun Rhee is Adjunct Professor, School of Business, Sungkyunkwan University (e-mail:
[email protected]) Minah Lee is Graduate Student, School of Business, Sungkyunkwan University (e-mail:
[email protected]). ACADEMY OF ASIAN BUSINESS REVIEW ISSN: 2384-3454 / 15 / $10.00 Vol. 1, No. 1. June 2015 ⓒ Academy of Asian Business 2015 36 ACADEMY OF ASIAN BUSINESS REVIEW, JUNE 2015 world. Alibaba Group‘s two most successful businesses, Taobao and Tmall, are now the most popular C2C and B2C online shopping sites, respectively. More specifically, Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of Taobao and Tmall accounted for more than 80 percent of the entire C2C and B2C e-commerce in China ($204 billion in 2012). This was much greater than the GMV of Amazon ($86 billion) and eBay ($67.8 billion) combined. Even after its great success in China in 2012, Alibaba has shown steady growth of businesses as shown in Figure 1. In 2014, Alibaba even had the biggest IPO ever at nearly $25 billion in US dollars. FIGURE 1 Alibaba Global Revenue Growth (unit: billion) Source: Business Insider In contrast to the tremendous success Alibaba currently enjoys, its start was very small. Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba Group, started Alibaba in his home by convincing 18 people to offer up their life savings of $60,000 in US dollars. How did Alibaba manage to turn its humble start into such a great success? Alibaba‘s success is especially noteworthy because it is rare for companies of developing nations such as China to become world leading companies in the online business industry. The main objective of this case study is to examine key success factors of Alibaba and to provide valuable implications. To make the analysis more formal and Alibaba then launched Taobao. Alipay Launched in 2004. Alibaba has launched a variety of businesses to help it become the world's leading e-commerce company based on its foresight for future opportunities as shown in Figure 2.com. handles sales between importers and exporters from more than 240 countries and regions. Alibaba. is the world‘s largest online B2B trading platform for SMEs. which served as a critical turning point for Alibaba to achieve great success. . and Tmall. When eBay entered the C2C e- commerce market in China. its major affiliated entities. are introduced as the milestones of Alibaba. AliExpress. Alibaba's foresight and preparation with strategic intent created new markets and enabled it to lead the new markets.com. First. in which buyers can verify the receipt and quality of the goods they bought before releasing money to the seller.com.com. the Chinese portal.com Alibaba. Among Alibaba's many businesses. a primary company of Alibaba. Taobao. A Case Study of Alibaba: Control Your Destiny 37 objective. Alipay. 1688. It provides three main services. five stages of competition model (Kim 2005. Alipay is a third-party online payment platform with no transaction fees. 2011) was adopted to analyze Alibaba. to compete with eBay. the company‘s English language portal. The great success of Alibaba can be mainly attributed to its foresight and preparation for future opportunities resulting from a coming paradigm shift in the industry and its strategic intent to make future imaginations real. Third. Alipay also provides an escrow service. handles domestic B2B trade in China. Second. allows smaller buyers to buy small quantities of goods at wholesale prices. Alibaba foresaw that eBay would become a big threat even if the two companies were in different markets. a transaction-based retail website. Jack Ma foresaw the impact of internet development and the flourishing potential for SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) in China and developed core competence with strategic intent before he launched Alibaba.com. Alibaba. an online C2C marketplace.com. Alibaba. com offers global brands to an increasingly affluent Chinese consumer base. Tmall. 2015. it offers a variety of products for retail sale.com is an online retail platform to complement the Taobao C2C marketplace and became a separate business in 2011.com Introduced in 2008. In January.S. . it was the eighth most visited web site in China. Tmall. Founded in 2003. Alipay. 2013. News based on Alibaba and Manhattan Venture Partners Taobao Taobao is China's largest C2C online shopping platform. Since Taobao offers free registration and commission-free transactions using a free third-party payment platform. Tmall. it was the second most visited website in China. This case study of Alibaba will provide significant implications for companies and business leaders who seek to turn their small starts or hardships into great successes or turning points. JUNE 2015 FIGURE 2 Milestones of Alibaba Group Source: U. advertising makes up most of the company's total revenue. As of October.38 ACADEMY OF ASIAN BUSINESS REVIEW. The Five Stages of Competition Model In order to more formally analyze the case of Alibaba. FIGURE 3 Five Stages of Competition Model Source: Kim 2005. Google. A Case Study of Alibaba: Control Your Destiny 39 Framework for Case Analysis. 2011)‘s five stages of competition model is brought as a framework for this study. the Kim (2005. The model has been successfully used to provide a strategic guidance to Asian companies in terms of finding new market opportunities and also to analyze the cases of great successes in terms of how they go about the major stages of competition (Kim 2012. Samsung. 2013). (4) mainstream market competition. 2011 The most unique feature of Kim‘s framework is that it emphasizes invisible competition. were excellent at foreseeing the paradigm shift that could change . foresight competition and new power preparation competition. etc. the world leading companies or brands such as Apple. Kim‘s model shows how world leading companies or leaders turned their humble starts into great successes with five competition stages which are (1) foresight competition. which occurs before the launch of a new company or a new product. Nike. For example. (2) new power preparation competition. (3) early market competition. and (5) competition at the top as shown in Figure 3. Amazon. to transform its small start into an incredible success. once the biggest player in the mobile industry. Jack Ma‘s enthusiastic vision for the future motivated them to offer up their life savings of $60. How did a former English teacher who had not even been exposed to the internet until the end of the 1990s become the founder of the world's leading e-commerce company. stated that ―sentiment changed at the company by Jack Ma‘s vision of conquering the world in B2B from . Although Alibaba faced considerable difficulties. JUNE 2015 everything about the current market in their respective industry and prepare new power. the two stages of Kim‘s framework. Jack Ma excelled in all of these essential categories.000 in US dollars. foresight. i. the foresight and new power preparation competition are critical stages for companies or leader to soar in (Christensen. Anthony. As a result. was not able to successfully foresee the paradigm shift in the mobile phone industry and prepare accordingly for it. Nokia. core competence. Jack Ma. This case study focuses on how Alibaba used the foresight and new power preparation competition. Nokia floundered in the new smartphone market and ultimately failed. for the new paradigm. Jack Ma‘s vision and strategic intent remained strong as Tina Ju. From the start.40 ACADEMY OF ASIAN BUSINESS REVIEW. the Man of Foresight for Alibaba Ma rose from humble beginnings to become one of the most respected Chinese business leaders in less than 20 years. From the start. He gathered 18 people and shared his vision and strategic intent to conquer the world B2B business in a meeting lasting two hours. and Roth 2004). he named the company Alibaba because he wanted to create a global company. and breakthrough spirits of leaders are critical factors for companies to succeed. On the contrary. vision. strategic intent. It's easy to spell and people everywhere recognize it as the ―Open Sesame‖ command to unlock doors to hidden treasures. Alibaba? What about Jack Ma was so special that he became one of the most respected business leaders in the world? To name a few.e. an investor in Alibaba. Jack Ma’s Vision and Strategic Intent for Future Alibaba started in Jack Ma‘s home. Jack Ma‘s vision and strategic intent was future-oriented. As the real business cases show. He said. Without money you cannot assume your social responsibility. Jack Ma also had a different vision. He then added. when they're doing good. a former English teacher. They don't worry about five years later—but I worry about five years later.…I am not the sort of person who goes after fame. A Case Study of Alibaba: Control Your Destiny 41 nearly going bankrupt. ―We got successful today not because we did a great job today—we had a dream 15 years ago. even when he had already personally donated over US $100. as an interpreter for a Chinese economic delegation.‖ Jack Ma‘s vision remained future-oriented and unique even after Alibaba achieved great success. Money will do. and society will not progress. he responded. Although the internet was not popular in China at that time. ―Most companies. cannot pay taxes.‖ Jack Ma‘s future-oriented vision and strong strategic intent clearly enabled Alibaba to become the leading e-commerce company in the world.‖ When it comes to corporate social responsibility. was first exposed to the internet in the mid- 1990s when he was in the U. .000. cannot create. that ―The major social responsibility of entrepreneurs in China is not to donate money. but to put their enterprises on the right track Even if one is rich. snowballing the enterprise into a much larger corporation and creating a lot more employment opportunities. He searched the word ―China‖ in the portal‘s search engine which gave no results. When a group of Chinese people criticized Jack Ma for not donating money to a devastating earthquake in Sichuan. Foresight and New Power Preparation for the Start of Alibaba Foresight for China’s Internet Development Jack Ma.S.‖ To further prove this point. one should not be too keen to make a donation … One should always invest more with more money. they enjoy today's wonderful life. he said. he glimpsed the power of the internet and foresaw the development of the internet in China. when Alibaba had the biggest IPO ever at nearly US $25 billion. It couldn‘t have been done without the visionary and spiritual leadership of Jack Ma…Everyone in Alibaba believed in him. 418.98% 2 2001 33. the number of internet users was about 22 million and the internet penetration rate in China was only about 1%. The Alibaba Group predicted the internet development in China and prepared for it.11% 1 2008 303.510.961 53% 16.96% 22.803 50% 2.601.995.774.51% 2 2003 80.37% 2 2002 59.52% 10. there is still bigger potential for the Alibaba Group to soar.30% 10.42 ACADEMY OF ASIAN BUSINESS REVIEW. In 2014.529.543 29% 28.52% 12. As shown in Table 1.300 152% 1.599 17% 8.03% 2 2005 112. the number of internet users in China has been rapidly increasing. the internet penetration rate in China is only at less than 50%.00% 15.351.50% 4 Source: Internet Live Stats As the number of internet users in China has been increasing.39% 1 2011 524. As shown in Figure 4.000.60% 8.03% 21.20% 10.97% 1 2013 617. In 2000. the number of internet users was about 640 million and the penetration rate was about 46%. That is.457.552.80% 1 2009 390.96% 1 2010 466. .762 19% 34.569 42% 22.30% 22. the size increased by almost 500% in the past five years.60% 19.000 8% 40.413 24% 10.79% 3 2000 22.580.070 4% 46.250 18% 7.739.93% 2 2004 95. however.170 75% 4.112.90% 22.31% 1 2007 213.30% 22.660.77% 1 2012 564. Not only that.55% 2 2006 139. the size of China's online shopping market has also been rapidly increasing.000 10% 44. TABLE 1 Growth in Number of Internet User in China Number of Growth Penetration Country's Share of Global Year Internet Users Rate Rate World Internet Users Rank 2014 641.635 12% 38.236 36% 6. JUNE 2015 It turned out that Jack Ma‘s foresight for internet development in China was correct.78% 5.494.57% 22.64% 6. 5% annual rate and its economy became the world‘s third largest. China‘s GDP grew at a 9. foreign direct investment boomed and trade also increased. Deng Xiaopeng passed away in 1997.‖ Jack Ma foresaw the emergence of SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) as the economy of China developed and the future opportunity of B2B market for the SMEs. Registered SMEs in China exceeded 4 million and contributed to about 60 percent of GDP. The World Bank referred to China‘s achievements as ―a tremendous success. After over two decades of economic and political reforms by Deng Xiaopeing. . Per capita income more than quadrupled. China has developed in many ways. A Case Study of Alibaba: Control Your Destiny 43 Figure 4 Growth of Online Shopping Market in China Source: KOTRA and iResearch Foresight for the Flourish of SMEs in China After 19 years as China‘s paramount leader. It turned out that small businesses flourished as ideological barriers fell and the economy of China grew. 44 ACADEMY OF ASIAN BUSINESS REVIEW. Alibaba was able to soar and lay a strong basis for the bigger turning point in the future of Alibaba. . p81) said. Taobao was one of the most critical turning points for Alibaba‘s tremendous success. the online B2B commerce.‖ He foresaw the great opportunity again in Chinese online business and developed core competence in helping Chinese SMEs connect with buyers. market demand grew fast.S. a simple online trading platform to help Chinese SMEs connect with business buyers.‖ Jack Ma‘s early and consistent investment in his core competence created a new market. After he was first exposed to the internet in the U. He focused on building core competence of helping Chinese SMEs expand abroad in online B2B industry during the time he was running China Pages. and set up a company called China Pages. Jack Ma began working for a Chinese government-owned company to help Chinese companies take up ―electronic commerce. In 1999. Although Jack Ma felt that China Pages' vision was on point. not only in China but also in the world market. Alibaba. Hamel and Prahald (1991. to realize his foresightful vision. the infrastructure in China was not yet ready for online commerce. ―Early and consistent investment in what we have called core competencies is one prerequisite for creating new markets. Jack Ma left the government-owned company and started his own company. The company was created to help Chinese companies list on the internet and to help foreigners find the listed Chinese companies. he left the Chinese economic delegation. borrowed US $2000. JUNE 2015 New Power Preparation for Start of Alibaba After Jack Ma foresaw the future opportunity from the ICT business development and the flourishing of SMEs in China. In 1998. Corporate imagination and expeditionary marketing are the keys that unlock these new markets. and saw the power of internet. he prepared and tried to seize the opportunity. As he envisioned. Jack Ma then returned to China. eBay. the world's largest C2C player. as discussed in detail. Jack Ma showed strong strategic intent to fight eBay. When eBay entered the China market. . eBay and Alibaba. Taobao of Alibaba has more than 90% of market shares in the C2C market in China. At that time. there were only two companies in China that understood online marketplaces. In addition. CFO of Alibaba. entered China by investing US $30 million in EachNet in 2002. eBay would come in our direction‖ but also the opportunity in C2C e-commerce at the same time. At that point. the users have become increasingly tech-savvy and are proactive in using C2C e-commerce. 3p). Foresight and Strategic Intent for Launching Taobao eBay. the market size of C2C e-commerce was getting bigger. but we see Taobao contributing significantly going forward. the line between individuals and small businesses is blurry. Foresight and New Power Preparation for Taobao With the number of Chinese internet users estimated to be more than 600 million in 2014. In 2003. ―eBay grew strongly. ―The B2B business makes the majority of Alibaba Group‘s revenues. Alibaba was a local Chinese company focusing on B2B to help small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) conduct business online.‖ Finally. With eBay‘s investment. the foresight and strategic intent of Jack Ma led Alibaba to launch Taobao. eBay actively promoted its business in China by rebranding EachNet as eBay EachNet. A Case Study of Alibaba: Control Your Destiny 45 Alibaba’s Turning Point. foresight and new power preparation.‖ How did Alibaba‘s Taobao achieve such great success in the face of a powerful competitor.meaning ―hunting for treasures‖ in Chinese. More importantly. EachNet grew in terms of its market share and revenue. the strongest global player in the market? There are two main factors. success could not have been possible. According to Joe Tsai. with the rapid increase in number of internet users in China. In China. if Alibaba hadn‘t cared about the impact of eBay's entry into C2C on its business. This tremendous success of Taobao was a major turning point that enabled Alibaba to become the world's leading e- commerce company. the world largest C2C marketplace. I was particularly concerned that eBay‘s power sellers would grow their business to compete in the B2B space. Taobao‘s rapid growth displaced once dominant eBay. Jack Ma foresaw not only the threat of eBay by stating that ―someday. There are many people with entrepreneurial ambitions. I needed to stop eBay to protect Alibaba (Oberholzer-Gee and Wulf 2009. At that time. ‖ Taobao. It speaks volumes about the strength of eBay‘s business in China that Taobao is unable to charge for its products. Figure 5 shows how the system of Alipay works. Alipay informs the seller when the payment is deposited. its competitor eBay criticized that ―Free is not a business model. and merchants were reluctant to sell online without significant incentives. Taobao showed rapid growth with its free listing and transaction fees. and then the seller ships the products. Taobao gained momentum to outpace eBay in terms of market shares only two years after its launch. For example. . creating trust between sellers and customers was challenging in China. Taobao started to change the game. people were worried about online scams. ―E-commerce was new in China. Taobao focused on preparing new power to differentiate itself from eBay in many ways. Since E-commerce was new in China and Chinese consumers were not familiar with online marketplaces. Free fees for cost consciousness.‖ Some people nicknamed Jack Ma as ―Crazy Ma. customers deposit payment for an outstanding order in an Alipay account. When the customers inform Alipay about arrival of the products. People were wary of scams. This Alipay system played a significant role in creating trust between sellers and customers. According to Porter Erisman.46 ACADEMY OF ASIAN BUSINESS REVIEW. Creating trust by introducing Alipay. Vice President of International Corporate Affairs at Alibaba. Alipay was designed to eliminate settlement risk. Using Alipay. Chinese consumers were not familiar with online marketplaces. As a part of new power preparation. They wanted the marketplace to be free so they could dip their toes in the water. Taobao introduced Alipay (meaning ―payment treasure‖ in Chinese).‖ However. JUNE 2015 New Power Preparation for Taobao to Fight eBay Alibaba added hard work to the foresight for Taobao‘s launching. To solve the problem. it releases the payment to sellers. which in turn led to increased transactions in Taobao. As more and more sellers and customers switched to Taobao from eBay. an escrow service. did not charge any listing and transaction fees for sellers. Accordingly. unlike eBay. it turned out that they were wrong. Taobao built its differentiated core competences based on two major points. Taobao‘s foresight was right. cost-consciousness and importance of trust between vendors and customers. In addition. Most interested parties were suspicious about Taobao‘s future. once emphasized the significant role of Alipay in Taobao‘s success.‖ In 2005. the lack of trust still creates a big challenge. Jack Ma revealed his new vision for Taobao.‖ he declared. extremely inefficient. ―Alipay was critical to Taobao‘s development. At the end of 2006. they can even do it online. After Taobao won the competition with eBay. The payment mechanism itself is not important. Even when buyers see a seller with high ratings. eBay closed its site and entered into a joint venture with Hong Kong-based Tom Online. People are used to wiring money. Payment is easy in China. But banks cannot address the settlement risk. Taobao will replace these traditional channels. ―The retail infrastructure in China is terrible. A Case Study of Alibaba: Control Your Destiny 47 FIGURE 5 System of Alipay Source: Alipay Webpage Porter Erisman. This is the new foresight and strategic intent for future direction of Taobao. Vice President of International Corporate Affairs. Alipay eliminates the settlement risk. We are now building the new Wal-Mart online. the winner between Taobao and eBay was decided. Now more than 80% of Taobao transactions rely on Alipay. This is where Alipay comes in. . Taobao outpaced eBay in terms of market share as shown in Figure 6. only two years after Taobao‘s start. JUNE 2015 FIGURE 6 Market Shares of Taobao and eBay in China *TOM Eachnet was a joint venture that was established between eBay and TOM online in 2006 Source: Company Document Discussion and Implications This case study reviewed how Alibaba became a leading e-commerce company in the world. the Kim‘s five stages of competition model was borrowed. How did Alibaba achieve such tremendous success? The key success factors of Alibaba can be summarized in (1) foresight for the future opportunities from paradigm shift and (2) preparation for core competence with strategic intent to seize the opportunities. Without having prepared for the core . The success story of Alibaba is especially noteworthy since the start of Alibaba was very meager.48 ACADEMY OF ASIAN BUSINESS REVIEW. he prepared new power by building core competence and helping Chinese SMEs connect with buyers online. Our study emphasized the invisible competition. Hence. foresight and new power preparation competition for Alibaba to turn its humble start into great success. Prior to the start of Alibaba. Jack Ma foresaw the paradigm shift of internet development and the flourishing of SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) in China. In order to more formally analyze the case. the biggest C2C e- commerce player. Future Challenges of Alibaba As reviewed in this case study. an online C2C marketplace. an obvious indicator of a company's situation. entered the C2C e-commerce market in China. Despite Alibaba‘s great success. Alibaba then launched Taobao. Alibaba showed excellent foresight and new power preparation with strategic intent even after the start of Alibaba. Alibaba has emerged as a leading e-commerce company in the world through its excellence in foresight and new power preparation for future opportunities. this case study of Alibaba will provide significant implications and lessons for companies and business leaders who seek to turn their small starts or hardships into successes or turning points. the stock price of Alibaba. the future opportunities identified through his foresight would have gone into the hands of others. Perhaps the most important lesson is that an ordinary person can turn his or her destiny into great success by exercising foresight and preparing for the future. 2014. As shown in Figure 7. This case study of Alibaba reveals the significance of foreseeing and preparing for a paradigm shift that can change everything in a given industry. For example.15 in November. He also showed strong strategic intent to create and conquer the online B2B commerce industry. although the stock price of Alibaba increased momentarily after its biggest IPO to US $119. Therefore. (2012. there is some evidence that indicates Alibaba is facing challenges. has declined and become stagnated over time. The foresight and new power preparation enabled Alibaba to achieve even greater success when eBay. it declined to about US $86 in May 2015. This foresight and new power preparation with strong strategic intent enabled Alibaba to become a leading e- commerce in the world. 2014) also claimed that seeing what comes next is one of the most important factors for companies in turning their humble starts into great successes. . Alibaba foresaw that eBay would become a big threat. in direct competition with eBay. however. A Case Study of Alibaba: Control Your Destiny 49 competence. Although eBay and Alibaba were in different markets. which became a critical turning point for Alibaba. Kim et al. Alibaba may face big threats in the near future. JD. JD. but focusing mainly on the Chinese market may make Alibaba vulnerable to threats such as changes in business environment and the presence of global competitors.com which is a Chinese e-commerce company grew sharply while Alibaba still has been a market leader.com may be just one of many small companies that will have the potential to pose threats to Alibaba‘s future growth. a slowdown of Chinese economy is also a challenge for Alibaba.com made strategic alliance with Chinese internet group Tencent in 2014 and rapidly expanded its business by focusing on small cities. As shown in Figure 8. for example. .com. GDP growth rate shows that economic development in China has been slowing down than when Alibaba grew its businesses. Another challenge for Alibaba is its absence in the global marketplace. China is one of the biggest markets in the world and Alibaba is the biggest player in the market. its focus has remained largely on the Chinese market. and a slowing of Chinese economic development among many others. If Alibaba neglects foresightful competitors like JD. This will result in decrease of consumer spending. As for new competitors.50 ACADEMY OF ASIAN BUSINESS REVIEW. which would create an unfavorable external environment for Alibaba. JD. Alibaba‘s absence in the global market. JUNE 2015 FIGURE 7 Alibaba’s Stock Price Change Source: Google Finance The notable challenges Alibaba is facing now include new competitors with foresight. Although Alibaba has grown quickly into the world‘s largest e-commerce platform. In addition. even if it is currently a small company. Using its own foresight and core competences. 2015) . showed excellence at making turning points from challenges. but the day after tomorrow will be sunshine. As Jack Ma once said. As suggested by the five stages of competition model (Kim 2005. A Case Study of Alibaba: Control Your Destiny 51 FIGURE 8 GDP Growth Rate of China (%) Source: The World Bank Challenges and hardships come to every company. The crucial matter is how they work the challenges or hardships into turning points for future growth. ―Never give up. the leading companies such as Apple. 2015. Now is the time for Alibaba. Historically. Samsung. 2011). even the leading companies that achieved great success should not be complacent. they should refresh themselves in terms of foresight and new power preparation to turn challenges or hardships into greater success.‖ we believe that Alibaba will control their destiny. Nike. Today is hard. to predict the unseen challenges in the future and prepare for them. the future of Alibaba will be bright even against coming challenges. but rather be vigilant about what‘s coming next in terms of both threats and opportunities. (Received June 3. 2015. 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