The World AUV MarketForecast 2014-2018 energy business insight e:
[email protected] t: +44 (0)203 4799 505 www.douglas-westwood.com Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | New York | Singapore © 2014 Douglas-Westwood 46 World AUV Market Forecast 2014-2018 Manufacturer Profiles Chapter 5 : Appendix ACSA (France) ACSA (part of the Alcen group) is primarily involved in underwater positioning but has also been developing a glider known as SeaExplorer. Trials in 2013 include a two month mission between France and Corsica but the company appears to be awaiting its first AUV sale. Atlas Elektronik (Germany) The Atlas Elektronik group (part of Thyssen & EADS) includes entities formerly known as Maridan (Denmark) who were amongst the first commercial AUV developers. Atlas was part of the BAE group until 2005, and has a strong presence in the MCM sector with its Seafox EMDV, but its AUV have not reported sales in recent years. Bluefin Robotics (USA) Bluefin Robotics (part of the Battelle Group) are a major AUV manufacturer. Key contracts include the Knifefish MCM AUV (JV with General Dynamics) due for sea trials with the US Navy in 2015, a number of deepwater commercial survey AUVs, and the development of a large payload AUV (Proteus) in a JV with the Columbia Group. A 2013 trial with the US Naval Research Laboratory demonstrated that one of the Bluefin vehicles could travel over 500 km through strong currents. The Bluefin Hover- ing AUV (HAUV) designed for vessel hull and IED inspections is to have a manipula- tor function added (related contract with US Navy $30 million, awarded 2011). Bluefin acquired AUV software developer SeeByte in 2013. Boeing (USA) Boeing are a major military supplier that have produced a number of AUV, histori- cally for the US Navy. Their Echo Ranger AUV (produced in a JV with Oceaneering and Fugro in 2001) continues to be used as a large payload, long endurance testbed. It is possible that the vehicle will be utilised as a research AUV under an initiative from Global Oceans. Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) This research institution has produced a number of AUV with a primary focus on deepwater survey for seabed minerals and resources, including under-ice regions dif- ficult to effectively map with vessels. Cybernetix (France) Cybernetix has a history of developing hybrid vehicles “Swimmer” and “Alive”. In late 2011 the company was acquired by Technip, along with pipelay assets of the Subocean Group and those of Global Indus- tries and then merged (within the Technip Group) with AETECH. The SWIMMER system (that utilizes an AUV as a shuttle for an ROV between an FPSO and a subsea docking station) is being financed by Total as a solution for inspection, maintenance and repair of subsea hardware. ECA (France) ECA has produced a number of AUVs for the French military and research develop- ment markets, including six units of the Alister 100. In 2012 and 2013 they released larger single and twin hull AUV products (Alister 9, 18, 18 Twin and 27) aimed at both military and commercial operations. ECA have experience making ROVs and USVs as well as AUVs. Exocetus (USA) Exocetus manufacture a highly manoeu- vrable oceanographic glider that was first developed for the US Navy but has been made commercially available since acquisi- tion of the IP in 2012. Go Science (UK) Go Science have been developing a seismic nodal AUV acquisition system with sup- port from Chevron and the International Technology Facilitator fund. However, it has been reported that the company entered administration in 2013. International Submarine Engineering (ISE, Canada) ISE have produced many deep-rated AUVs for international and domestic research. In 2009 they delivered a pair of AUVs for Natural Resources Canada that have been used extensively to map Canada’s exclusive economic zone and its extensions under the Arctic ice. ISE now provide operational support for these vehicles which were transferred to Defense Research & Devel- opment Canada in 2012. They built two Explorers for Japanese clients in 2011. i-Robot i-Robot are a manufacturer of land-based robotic systems including those for ex- plosive clearance. It had set up a maritime AUV division following IP acquisition of Nekton Research AUV and the University of Washington’s Seaglider. However, it left the AUV market in 2012 and laid off its Maritime division staff. Kongsberg acquired the rights to manufacture the Seaglider in 2013. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology (JAMSTEC, Japan) The Marine Technology division of JAM- STEC (with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries) manufacture a number of AUV for research projects and in 2012 added new deepwater mapping and sample retrieval vehicles to support seabed resource surveys. They are developing a 3000km endurance AUV powered by fuel cell. Kongsberg Hydroid (USA) Hydroid (as an AUV manufacturer) has its roots at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. It was acquired by the Kongsberg Group (Norway) in 2007 and continues to produce a large number of REMUS design vehicles, primarily for military and research clients that can now benefit from common operating systems between the REMUS and the HUGIN platforms. Hydroid now offers the REMUS 600-S fitted with a Kongsberg multibeam bathymetry system and a high precision positioning and navigation suite to meet IHO standards. A survey variant of the REMUS 100 has also been reported. Kongsberg (Norway) The Kongsberg group continues to domi- nate the market with its HUGIN vehicles, and the REMUS AUV (via Hydroid). In 2013 it acquired the rights to produce the Sea- Glider vehicle, and also a new AUV model known as MUNIN aimed at low-logistics survey operations. This will be the first vehicle developed jointly since the Hydroid acquisition. Liquid Robotics and Liquid Robotics Oil & Gas (USA) Liquid Robotics produce the Wave Glider vehicle (technically a USV rather than an AUV) for oceanographic sensing, and in 2012 set up a JV with oilfield services com- pany Schlumberger to focus efforts on the oil & gas sector. The company is included here as it competes with AUV Gliders for oceanographic measurement work. • Prospects • Technologies • Markets © 2014 Douglas-Westwood 31 World AUV Market Forecast 2014-2018 Commercial Sector – Pipeline Route Survey Chapter 4 : Market Forecast Future demand is expected to be driven by deepwater activities, mainly in Asia. Australasia is the largest region for pipeline route survey in 2014 (39% of demand). Asia to represent 44% of demand in 2018 with high predicted pipeline installation in the region. Demand may be under-estimated be- cause of lack of information regarding future activities in some regions. We accept that deepwater activities to have a higher proportion of AUVs used. Pipeline route survey Since the first project using AUV in a pipeline route survey of the Statoil Aasgard pipeline (Norway, 1997), the number of such activities using AUV has not increased significantly, as technology has yet to mature. Instead there are a number of tests taking place. Developments in technology, such as bat- tery endurance and sensors, may encour- age a further increase in the proportion of pipeline route survey activities using AUVs. Reduction in the visibility of pipeline installations after 2016 results in a drop in perceived AUV demand, albeit this may be subject to upside as additional projects are. Examples of AUV pipeline route surveys include C&C Technologies’ contracts for Petrobras; the South Stream pipeline offshore Bulgaria for Peter Gaz; and Fugro’s project for Woodside Petroleum Browse LNG, off Australia. Market outlook Australasia demands most AUV units; 39% of the market in 2014. Low visibility in pipeline installations indicates decreasing demand for AUV survey between 2014 and 2018, which would imply a reduction to only 3% in 2018. Asia is estimated to have the largest proportion of the AUV market for pipeline survey in 2018 with 44%, driven by planned installations in the region. Eastern Europe & FSU pipeline route sur- veys will be driven by pipeline activities in Russia and Kazakhstan due to be completed in 2017. In summary, vessel-based surveys are still dominant and market take up is more evident in deepwater, which is expected to have a higher proportion of activities using AUVs. “New development will be on bigger AUVs with longer endurances and more capability to operate independently.” US Operator Figure 28: AUV Demand 2007-2018: Pipeline Route Survey 0 1 2 3 4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 A U V U n i t Y e a r s Africa Asia Australasia Eastern Europe & FSU Latin America Middle East North America Norway RoWE UK AUV Unit Years 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Africa 2.3 0.9 5 6.1 12.5 Asia 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.6 3.2 Australasia - 0.9 0.6 0.4 - Eastern Europe & FSU - - - 0.1 0.2 Latin America 0.8 1.4 2.6 3.6 6.1 Middle East - 0.3 - 0.3 0.2 North America 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.1 4.4 Norway - - - 0.2 - RoWE - - 0.1 0.1 - UK 0.2 - 0.1 0.1 0.2 World 5.6 6.6 11.1 13.7 26.9 Table 4: AUV Demand 2014-2018: Pipeline Route Survey © 2014 Douglas-Westwood 14 World AUV Market Forecast 2014-2018 Applications – Military Chapter 2 : Introduction to AUVs Introduction The militaries of some nations have been instrumental in the initial or continued de- velopment of many AUVs used today, and the military remain a dominant purchaser in terms of vehicle numbers. Military purchas- ing now favours COTS equipment that can operate in different roles rather than supporting long, costly, single-use product development directly. AUVs are a way for the military to remove humans or high value targets from direct threat, to increase deployment flexibility in terms of geographic distribution (AUVs can be moved from one theatre to another very rapidly) and as a means of providing additional sensor capacity without significant associated vessel costs. AUV use in the military is wide and varied but the primary applications can be grouped as: Anti-Sub- marine Warfare (ASW); Mine Counter- measures (MCM); Oceanography; Search & Recovery (SAR); and Special Operations. Anti-submarine warfare AUVs can be used as sensor platforms to detect submarines, either working as an alternative to, or in conjunction with a manned ship or other submarine. They can host or tow the hydrophones and sensors required to listen for the submarine’s hull, propulsion and machinery noises without creating significant levels of similar noise themselves, and can also be used to extend the baseline of a detection system, thus improving localization of a target position. AUVs previously developed for these ASW roles (including the delivery of seabed sen- sors) may be launched either from a sub- marine or a surface platform. AUVs can also be used to train sonar operators on surface vessels as they can be fitted with acoustic and magnetic simulators that replicate that of a target submarine, thus replacing some of the expendable training targets that have historically been used for this role. They are also being developed as active counter- measure systems designed to act as decoys for enemy sensors or homing torpedoes. Mine countermeasures These AUVs have been used successfully as a sensor platform for detecting (and later identifying) for many years. Small MCM AUVs such as the Hydroid REMUS 100 are deployed by mine clearance teams, typically from small craft in shallow water, and are equipped with SSS and downward looking cameras (US Navy Mk 18 Mod 1 Swordfish variant). These enable the operator to view targets on the seabed. In order to host additional sensors, and to detect buried objects and those in the water column, a larger platform is needed. For example, the REMUS 600 vehicle (US Navy Mk 18 Mod 2 Swordfish) weighs 270kg, and has both sideways and forward looking sonar, and SBP capability. It can also be fitted with a Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS) module that increases the resolution of buried object detection. Larger AUVs are designed for deployment from vessels that will stay out of potentially mined areas until cleared, rather than from mine-sweeping craft, and will be able to contain enough computer processing power to be able to identify a particular mine by comparing it to a data- base; the results will then be reported when the AUV surfaces. Such vehicles include the Kongsberg HUGIN 1000, the ECA Alister 27, the Bluefin 21 (US Navy Mk 18 Mod 1 Knifefish) and the ASEMAR AUV. MCM AUV also include those that are a hybrid between AUV and Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) technology and that operate just beneath the surface, such as the Lockheed Martin Remote Multi Mission Vehicle or RMMV. There are also those that can perform autonomous inspection of ship hulls using vessel features for positioning, and that relay imagery back to the operator in real time over a fibre-optic link; The Bluefin Robotics Hovering AUV is the key example of this type. Military oceanography Oceanographic measurements for the mili- tary is undertaken to serve two purposes. The first is to provide increased accuracy of meteorological forecasts for naval opera- tions based on measurements of water temperatures (a driving factor in global weather). The second is that knowledge of the speed of sound through water is vital to the accurate measurement of sonar ranges underwater – this is of relevance to naval operations including ASW and hydrography. In ASW, target submarines can use changes in the speed of sound to effectively confuse sensors that are looking for a submarine tar- get, and so it is useful to map these physical parameters where possible. The speed of sound through water can be measured directly, but is more commonly calculated from measurements of temperature and salinity at a particular depth (known as a CTD measurement). CTD sensors are a standard fit on almost every AUV and glider. Gliders will collect measurements at depth or time intervals and then transmit the data when they reach the surface. They are also able to loiter in an area, providing regular updates without the need for a ves- sel to be present. Search & rescue AUVs are being used to conduct SAR operations for downed aircraft. An F-16 jet was lost off Virginia in 2013, the wreck was located by AUVs using sidescan sonar prior to divers being used to recover evidence. Special operations AUVs are being developed that can act as shuttles for special forces troops, as well as those that can conduct surveillance over long distances and timescales, including high levels of autonomous obstacle avoidance. A 2013 US DARPA program called Hydra aims to develop a large AUV that can act as a launch base for other AUV and/or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) so that they can be brought very close to a target unseen. Submarine launched UAV already exist. Figure 14: Remus 100 Source: Kongsberg Hydroid Figure 15: Asemar Source: Thales & ECA Figure 16: Remote Multi-Mission Vehicle Source: Lockheed Martin © 2014 Douglas-Westwood 28 World AUV Market Forecast 2014-2018 Commercial Sector – Drivers Chapter 4 : Market Forecast Growing deepwater activities have the potential to drive significant increase in AUV demand in the oil & gas sector. Other drivers include strive for ef- ficiency and cost reduction as well as increase in safety standards. Proportion of deepwater drilling to reach 33% by 2018 (CAGR of 9%). Most deepwater activities will be in Africa, Asia, Latin America and North America, representing large potential for AUVs. Main drivers AUVs are potentially applicable for deep and shallow water. However, vessel-based vehicles are expected to remain dominant in shallow water installations. Nonetheless, AUVs are used in higher pro- portions in deepwater, for all applications. The move to deeper waters in West Africa, Latin America, Gulf of Mexico and Asia will play a key role in meeting future demand for oil and most of AUV demand drivers are linked to this factor. The proportion of wells being drilled by drillship and semisubs are expected to represent 33% in the 2014-2018 period (CAGR of 9%). As a result, offshore production is now increasing and will continue to rise in the future. Shallow water oil production will not grow significantly, as wells in shallow water mature. In contrast, deepwater production is forecast to rise from 4% of total global oil production in 2012 to 9% by 2025. Consistent with increasing deepwater activi- ties, Africa and Latin America, driven by presalt expenditure in Angola, Nigeria and Brazil, are expected to present the highest growth in demand (CAGR of 38% and 36%, respectively). Deepwater activities in India, Indonesia and Malaysia will support demand in Asia, which has approximately 20% of the AUV market in 2014. Other activities driving demand include further ongoing oil & gas exploration, field and infrastructure development and maintenance programmes in both shallow and deepwater. Other Drivers include: • Growing use of AUVs from vessels-of- opportunity allowing growing utilisation and availability as well as operations in emerging markets such as rig move surveys. • Drives for efficiency and cost reduction with respect to vessel time. • Perceived benefits of LOFI solutions as an alternative to ROVs for oil & gas inspection/observation-only tasks. • High costs of pipeline inspection using conventional vessels and towed systems. • Increasing safety standards and wider notion of AUV applicability to high pres- sure and under-ice environments. • Increasing demand for renewable energy production, which includes marine instal- lations and maintenance. Figure 23: Deepwater Wells Drilled: 2009-2018 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 D e e p w a t e r W e l l s Africa Asia Australasia Eastern Europe & FSU Latin America Middle East North America Norway RoWE UK Figure 24: Proportion of Wells Drilled by Rig Type: 2014-2018 67% 26% 7% Jackup Semisub Drillship © 2014 Douglas-Westwood 19 World AUV Market Forecast 2014-2018 Manufacturers Chapter 3 : Competitive Landscape Ocean Server (USA) Ocean Server manufactures the Iver and Iver 2 for the research sector. Bluefin Robotics (USA) Bluefin 9, 12, 21 and HAUV Spray Glider are used mainly in the military sector. International Submarine Engineering (Canada) ISE developed the Explorer for research activi- ties. Liquid Robotics (USA) Liquid Robotics developed the Wave Glider for research application. Kongsberg Hydroid (USA) REMUS 100, 600 & 6000 are mainly used for the military and the research sectors. Teledyne Webb (USA) Teledyne’s Slocum Gliders are used in the military and research sectors. North America Teledyne Gavia (Iceland) Teledyne Gavia manufactures Gavia Offshore Surveyor, Defence & Science, for applications in the three sectors. Atlas Elektronik (Germany) SeaOtter MkII & SeaCat are used for survey and defence. Eca (France) Alister 9, 18, 18 Twin and 27 and Alistar 3000 were designed for military activities. Ocean MST (Portugal) The LAUV was developed by the University of Porto primarily for research activities. RoWE Saab & Saab Seaeye AUV62 and Sabretooth were designed to serve the military. UK Most major manufacturers are based in North America (with 91% of built AUVs) and Europe. Kongsberg is the world’s largest manufacturer with approximately 26% market share (39% excluding gliders). Ocean Server with 24% (35% excl. gliders) and Bluefin Robotics with 12% (14% excl. gliders) are also major players. Teledyne Webb are the primary supplier of gliders with 71% of the market. Other manufacturers include: Boeing, Exocetus, i-Robot, Lockheed Martin, Ocean Server, Penn State University, Applied Research Lab., Teledyne Webb, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (in the USA); Go Science, Marlin Submarines, National Oceanography Centre (NOC), Subsea 7 (in the UK); ACSA and Cybernetix (in France); JAMSTEC (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology)/Mitsubishi; and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. More details can be found in the appendix. Commenatry Kongsberg Kongsberg AUVs such Hugin 1000, 3000, 4500 & MUNIN, are used for survey and military activities. Norway Regional proportion of AUVs by Manufacture HQs (incl. gliders) Other Regions KEY 6% 2.4% 0.6% 91% Military Market Focused Research Market Focused Includes Oil & Gas © 2014 Douglas-Westwood 11 World AUV Market Forecast 2014-2018 Types of AUV Chapter 2 : Introduction to AUVs Figure 1: Iver 2 Source: Ocean Surver Figure 3: Sea Horse Source: Penn State University Figure 2: Long Range AUV Source: National Oceanographic Centre Introduction The following text helps explain the differ- ent types of AUV by their primary features. Classifying a vehicle purely by its applica- tion is often misleading as in many cases it is possible and desirable to have the same AUV “platform” that is able to perform multiple roles through the addition of differ- ent sensor and sub-system “payloads”. Constant motion AUV The vast majority of AUVs in regular use are optimized for hydrodynamic ef- ficiency when moving forward, and are required to maintain speeds of between 2 and 4 knots. Examples: Bluefin Robotics “Bluefin 9/12/21”, Kongsberg Hugin “Hugin 1000/3000/4500”; Kongsberg Hydroid “REMUS 100/600/6000”; ISE Explorer, “OceanServer Iver 2/3”, Saab “AUV-62”. Gliders Gliders are a hybrid between oceanograph- ic profiling floats and powered AUVs. They have no propeller but instead have a set of wings that allows them to travel forward as they descend through the water column. At a pre-determined depth, a buoyancy con- trol system will activate and cause the glider to rise to the surface, where it will then transmit any sensed data and its position via a satellite link before starting the cycle once again. Also included under this group are the Wave Glider vehicles that are a hybrid between an AUV and a USV. They compete in the same markets as true Gliders. Hover-capable AUV A small number of AUVs have addi- tional thrusters that enable them to halt or perform very slow speed manoeuvres in addition to normal forward motion. This functionality will come at a loss of hydro- dynamic efficiency but will allow for visual and/or acoustic inspection roles. Hovering thrusters can be built into the AUV from the outset, or can sometimes be added as modules. Examples: Bluefin Robotics’ “HAUV”; Kongsberg Hydroid thruster mod- ules for REMUS 100/600; and the Lockheed Martin “Marlin” AUVs. Low-logistics and modular AUV Many AUVs now being used are of a highly modular nature, either of a small form factor when complete or capable of being broken down into a number of discrete components for transport and also for cus- tomisation. Whilst there may be a necessary compromise in terms of endurance, sensor capabilities or depth rating when compared to much larger vehicles, the ability to launch from any vessel or the beach without spe- cialist hardware and to rapidly ship the ve- hicle to a project site has found favour with many operators. Examples: Ocean Server “Iver 2” & “Iver 3”, Kongsberg “MUNIN”, Teledyne Gavia “Gavia”. Multiple hull AUV Some AUVs utilise multiple hulls to give them either an increase in space for ad- ditional sensor or battery payloads, or to increased the stability of the vehicle at slow speeds. Hybrids In some situations, a hybrid solution is re- quired that crosses the distinctions between different unmanned marine vehicle types. There will always be compromises but there is also no “one size fits all” vehicle for every situation. Examples include: • AUVs equipped with manipulators or that are designed for slow-speed manoeuvring at present have a technical hurdle related to real-time communica- tion of imagery and control. The use of lightweight fibre optic cable as a communications link is one option for this problem. • The concept of carrying a work-class ROV on the back of a shuttle AUV to support deepwater offshore produc- tion is another example of hybridisation in the sector. This would provide the freedom of movement associated with AUVs and the ability to do practical tasks. • Some AUVs can operate in both pow- ered and glider modes to dramatically extend endurance – this will enable them to cross areas of stronger currents before returning to calmer waters. Biomimetic AUV A small number of AUVs utilise propul- sion systems based on those found in nature. These are normally optimised for a particularly useful attribute such as very fine control at slow speeds, or high speed efficiency. Figure 4: Aqua Source: York & Dalhousie Universities Figure 5: Marlin Source: Lockheed Martin Figure 6: Spray Glider Source: Blufin Robotics Global AUV Fleet to increase 42% by 2018 Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecast that the global AUV (autonomous underwater vehicle) fleet will increase 42% in the 2014-2018 period, compared to the previous five years. The fleet is forecast to total 825 units in 2018, led by strong demand in the military sector. The military sector makes up 50% of AUV demand, with North America accounting for 75% of this market in 2014. However, this market share may decrease to 70% by 2018, as emerging economies increasingly invest in their military fleets. Overall growth of military de- mand in AUVs closely mirrors the investment in unmanned aircraft – so called ‘drones’. Increasing environmental awareness contin- ues to drive demand for use of AUVs on research activities, with environmental sens- ing and research mapping combined forming approximately 47% of the current AUV fleet. However, the research sector may represent a smaller proportion of the market by 2018, as commercial activities gain pace. Highest growth is expected to come from the commercial sector, but from a small base, more than doubling its proportion of active units dur- ing the forecast period (from 3% to 8%). Key developments have taken place in areas such as sensing, battery endurance and tracking stability, which allow a wide range of applications to emerge in the offshore oil & gas industry (life- of-field, pipeline inspections and rig moves) also in civil hydrography, in addition to existing work in site and pipeline route surveys. North America will continue to dominate global AUV expenditure, predominantly on military unmanned technology, although the region’s market share is forecast to decrease from 64% in 2014 to 60% by 2018. Africa and Latin America are set to experience the highest growth, driven by deepwater oil & gas activities in pre-salt areas. Demand in Asia will be varied with research activities in Japan, deepwater ex- penditure in India, Indonesia and Malaysia and military investment in China. DW’s 5th edition of the AUV Market Forecast covers all key commercial themes relevant to players across the value chain in all AUV sec- tors: • Technology review – description of current technology and ongoing developments. • Competitive landscape – for manufacturers and operators, including their main activities. • Key drivers – identification and discussion of key underlying drivers and their influence on the global AUV market by sector. • Regional forecasts – analysis of AUV de- mand development from 2014 to 2018. • Sector forecasts – demand for AUV units segmented by commercial, military & research sectors, including recent activities and drivers for each activity and region. The World AUV Market Forecast 2014-2018 energy business insight e:
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