2013-3-12 Kim Eng Courts Initiation v4 Ed1

March 24, 2018 | Author: phuawl | Category: Securitization, Loans, Credit (Finance), Interest, Retail


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Co.Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012 Singapore Initiating Coverage 12 March 2013 Buy (initiation) Share price: Target price: SGD0.91 SGD1.49 Courts Asia I’ll See You In Courts! Reincarnated High Prince of Retailers. Courts Asia is the reincarnation of Courts Singapore and Courts Malaysia, two separately listed companies that were privatised in 2007-2009 following the bankruptcy of its controlling shareholder. Bought out by private investors, its loss-making loss Thai operations closed, its credit facility strengthened and previously-separate previously management teams aligned, and relisted in 2012, Courts Asia is a direct dir play on the ASEAN consumption story in Malaysia, Singapore and soon, Indonesia. The angle of consumer financier has been buttressed and remains a key selling point for both customers and investors. Your Honour, , Courts is a BUY BU with a target price of SGD1.49 for upside of 63.7%. Courting the ASEAN big spenders. If ASEAN were a country, it would rank among the top 10 economies in the world. Its consumption story is played out every day by large young populations salivating for the latest gadget and the most fashionable sofa. The biggest retailer of electrical and IT products and furniture in Singapore, No. 2 in Malaysia ia and soon, Indonesia as well, Courts is a direct play on this story. It has 59 stores in Malaysia and 13 stores in Singapore with 1m sq ft of space. By 2014, it will open its largest outlet in Jakarta, Indonesia. Financing the retail masses for a fat margin gin. Courts’ unique in-house credit financing facility, offered for up to 60 months and at interest rates exceeding 22% annually, adds additional margin allure for investors, as this facility allows it to enjoy much higher margins than competitors that rely on third-party credit providers. Via an innovative asset securitisation programme program for its consumer loans, Courts is able to tap into cheap funding to grow this non-retail non income stream and earn a lucrative spread. Bad debt risks are controlled through t rigorous credit screening. Growing through new stores, new markets and higher efficiency. The next few years’ earnings growth of 14-15% 15% annually will be driven by new store openings in Malaysia (adding six stores a year) and by improving efficiency in Singapore to eke out higher revenue per square foot of retail space. In addition, Courts ourts is ultra bullish on Indonesia. By 2014, it will have opened its single largest store throughout its regional network in Indonesia’s Ind most populated suburb. Valuations s too cheap for this prince of retailers. For its market leadership position and sustainable growth model, Courts is too cheap in our view. v As the first non-underwriter syndicate to cover Courts, our TP of SGD1.49 is the highest on the street, based on 16.4x FY3/14F F earnings, and on par with the best in Singapore for consumer products distributors. distributors Though still 20% lower than highly-priced regional retailers in high consumption countries like Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, , we would not discount a rapid catch-up catch on re-rating once investors warm to this prince of retailers. Courts Asia – Summary Earnings Table FYE Mar (SGD m) Revenue EBITDA Recurring Net Profit Recurring Basic EPS (cents) EPS growth (%) DPS (cents) 2011 674.1 47.6 32.2 5.8 112.1 8.5 15.6 12.4 9.4 2.2 35.9% 13.8% 6.3% 2012 724.2 70.3 39.4 7.0 22.2 25.9 12.8 9.2 28.8 2.3 65.2% 18.0% 7.0% 2013F 783.1 76.3 42.4 7.6 7.7 2.3 11.9 8.5 2.5 1.8 52.7% 15.4% 6.5% 41.6 2014F 913.0 89.2 50.9 9.1 20.0 2.7 9.9 7.6 3.0 1.8 61.7% 18.1% 7.5% 49.4 2015F 1063.1 100.5 58.2 10.4 14.3 3.1 8.7 6.8 3.5 1.7 60.5% 19.9% 7.7% 57.0 Alison FOK [email protected] (65) 6432 1447 Stock Information Description: A leading electrical and IT products as well as furniture retailer in Singapore and Malaysia. It will make its debut in Indonesia in 2014 with the opening of its largest-ever store in Jakarta. Ticker: Shares Issued (m): Market Cap (USD m): 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USD m): ST Index: Free float (%): Major Shareholders: Singapore Retail Asia CEO Terence Connor COURTS SP 560.0 407.9 0.5 3,293.0 43.3 68.2 2.3 Key Indicators ROE – annualised (%) Net debt (SGD m): NTA/shr (SGD): Interest cover (x): 13.9 145.8 0.492 17.3 Historical Chart Performance: 52-week High/Low 1-mth -8.5 -9.2 SGD0.955/SGD0.655 3-mth 5.2 -0.4 6-mth na na 1-yr na na YTD 5.2 1.2 PER EV/EBITDA (x) Div Yield (%) P/BV(x) Net Gearing (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) Consensus Net Profit (SGD m) Absolute (%) Relative (%) SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DIS DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIO TIONS Courts Asia Investment merits Initiate Courts Asia with a BUY. Our target price of SGD1.49 implies 63.7% upside from the current share price. . Courts Asia is a beneficiary of strong consumer consumption trends in its key ASEAN markets of Singapore, Malaysia and by next year, Indonesia as well. well Delisted between 2007 and 2009 and relisted in 2012, Courts has been cleaned up, restructured and ready for consumption by investors looking for a proxy to ride ASEAN EAN consumption growth but trading at just 10-12x 10 earnings compared to the superheated 20-30x 20 valuations of consumption plays in Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines. Macro “stars” aligned. The Singapore government is targeting a population number of 6.9m by 2030 (up 1.91% on average annually from 5m now). To support the government’s target, the Housing and Development Board (HDB), the public housing authority, has turned on the supply tap to accommodate young “starter” families. Courts will be a prime beneficiary of the demand for furniture and electrical accessories, reeling consumers in with its in-house house credit facility. facility Malaysia is also experiencing rising household income, , and consumer expenditure is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 7.6% from 2012 to 2016. 2 Revamped, restructured and cleared to go. The previous Courts (under separate listings in Singapore and Malaysia) was the victim of a mismanaged credit facility and misaligned management incentives, incentives which created large spikes in bad debt, , especially in Indonesia and Malaysia. Following privatisation, , Courts has brought its delinquency rate down to all-time lows s and the two separately-managed separately markets have been aggregated under one management. Ready to go, it was relisted in 2012 and now boasts the highest est operating margins among its competitors, with concrete plans to return to Indonesia. Bred for fast expansion and keen competition. competition Courts holds an asset-light balance sheet. Despite fast expansion, it is able to keep capital costs down via supplier rebates for new refurbishments and new store openings (up to 60% of relevant capex). The suppliers also pay for promotions and marketing materials on their products that are sold through Courts. Courts also boasts a competitive business model. The Th Singapore stores have a “Price Price Promise” Promise where they will match competitors’ pricing and refund customers if they can find a better deal. Initiate with BUY and target t price of SGD1.49. SGD1.49 Courts has the pole position as the largest retailer of furniture and household fittings in Singapore, and it is the second largest in Malaysia. With clear and obviously robust growth prospects in ASEAN, and a balance sheet equipped for expansion, Courts is on the warpath to secure its position as a top regional retailer. Despite an upside of 63.7% our target price of SGD1.49 is based on 16.4x FY3/14F, still conservatively pegged to a 20% discount to regional retailers. 12 March 2013 Page 2 of 28 697.0 27.745.8 Forward P/E (x) 25.3 18.333 9.2 10.333 0.1 5.738.5 10.102 2.4 5.6 3.3 1.784.6 1.0 6.9 2.8 15.0 11.458 4.6 16. are trading at an average of 20.2 36.3 16.4 12 March 2013 Page 3 of 28 .8 857.0x forward P/E.4 32.635.6 42.4 5.1 12.880.7 42.707.6 21.6 2.4 35.7 -4.2 37.329 0.6 19. Our target price is pegged at a 20% discount to regional retailers.3 34.8 24.160.3 23.1 75.5 1. But we are also taking a more regional approach when considering its peers.157 7.540 1.1 3.4 4.6 21.5 8.8 35.1 20. Figure 1: Peer comparison Ticker Name Singapore consumer branded retailers DFI SP Dairy Farm Intl EYSAN SP Eu Yan Sang SSG SP Sheng Siong PRA SP Parkson Retail Asia OSIM SP Osim International SUPER SP Super Group CHLG SP Challenger Tech Credit services AEONTS TB Aeon Thana Sinsap 900 HK Aeon Credit Service Asia ACSM MK Aeon Credit Service M Regional department stores/ retailers PRA SP Parkson Retail Asia ISET SP Isetan Singapore ROBINS TB Robinson Department Ramayana Lestari RALS IJ Sentosa AEON MK Aeon Co (M) HMPRO TB Home Product Center CPALL TB Cp All MAPI IJ Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk ACES IJ Ace Hardware Regional supermarkets SSG SP Sheng Siong MAKRO TB Siam Makro PM TB Premier Marketing AMRT IJ Sumber Alfaria Trijaya HERO IJ Hero Supermarket DFI SP Dairy Farm Intl Hldgs BIGC TB Big C Supercenter COURTS SP Courts Asia Ltd Source: Bloomberg Mkt Cap (SGD m) 20.651 15.4 14.3 P/B (x) 14.6 20.5x x FY13F PER.3 56.7 22.4 3.4 15.4 1.2 35.6 8.4 29.2 18.4 18.2 20.6 3.7 16.0 26.7 41.8 25.485 3.4 3.3 25.4 27.9 7.8 1.707.9 20.1 21.6 857.6 4.0 15.7 3.0 1.8 5.2 15.3 27.405 0.6 Last price (SGD m) 15.1 15.7 4. We have also taken into account consumer credit financiers.2 Hist.554.295 0.0 10.8 32.2 36.Courts Asia Valuations Of its listed peers in Singapore.1 3.4 38.8 1.345.102.6 19.5 25.9 29.9 14.065.837 0.5 33.2 5.5 10.3 19.8 569.8 2.4x FY3/14F PER.9 267.2 14. We believe Courts deserves to be valued closer to the regional retailers given its growing market position in ASEAN and superior margins.5 13.206.0 167.0 20.9 20.2 11.9 28.1 38.1 3.620 22.693 1.8 1.0 52.3 ROE (%) 42.4 6.0 34.6 1.2 7.6 18.4 26.8 30.0 202.6 11.0 20.858.170 5. as Courts is focused on expanding in ASEAN.4 35.6 -83.8 49. Regional retailers.4 19.4x FY13F PER.0 17.605 0.9 1. which implies 16.7 5.6 41.9 6.043.0 6.639.8 22.934 0.5 50.6 0.1 -35.8 23.9 19.5 19.6 727.5 19.7 21.2 79.767. Challenger is the most direct competitor to Courts.900 3.134 0.0 27.3 -21.2 3.6 21.620 1.540 4.1 27.7 36.043.2 48. while local retailers are trading t at a lower 18.2 2.6 33.2 242.3 21.985 0.6 24. P/E (x) 37.2 3.5 3.1 13.8 5.4 9.2 1.5 7.142. AEON.6 509.2 28.1 17.2 5.5 15.6 4.6 29.8 34.770 0.0 8.7 8.2 5.6 42.9 787.850 3.8 1.7 4.1 37.109 0. typically department stores.6 14.7 11.910 EPS Growth (%) -7.3 22.3 14.6 22.9 41.3 31.9 26.4 10.3 66.8 45.8 -7.504.964 0.2 19.6 12. which is trading at 13. Barings Private Equity Asia III and Topaz Investment ment Worldwide. Most importantly. Asia Retail Group. which is 67. 12 March 2013 Page 4 of 28 .8% owned by Topaz Investment. recapitalisation and acquisitions.8%) Asia Retail Group (100%) Institutional investors* (13. delisting Courts faced several difficulties. It specialises in mid-market market companies requiring capital for expansion. a Middle Eastern fund.45%) Singapore Retail Group (68.0 – The Grande Dame New kid on the block? Hardly! Courts Singapore and Courts Mammoth (Malaysia) were separately listed on two exchanges in 1992 and 2000.6%) Courts Asia Limited (Singapore) Source: IPO Prospectus *JF Asset Management. Thailand and Indonesia were sold to a group of private investors. Figure 2: : Shareholding structure Barings Private Equity Asia (BPEA) (67. currently holds the majority stake in Courts Asia. This led to a long-drawn-out process in the breakup breaku of Courts’ global empire.Courts Asia Courts 1.2%) Management (2. respectively. Malaysia. Courts overhauled its credit facilities and operations. Worldwide for a total of SGD221m between 2007 and 2009.8%) 32.75%) Public (15. BPEA is a private equity fund with USD5b US under its management. a UK-based company which went into administration in 2004. Revamp of operations.2% 67 owned by Barings Private Equity Asia III (BPEA) and 32. and revamped itself in a matter of five years. Value Partners Hong Kong Fraught with problems.2%) Topaz Investment (32. there was no credit control facility and the company subsequently suffered when bad debts spiked during the financial downturn in 2008. chief of which was a rigid management structure that encouraged short-term profit-driven driven strategies. After both companies were privatised. Prior to delisting. The current owners. New Silk Road Investment. Target Asset Management. The two Courts’ operations in Singapore. This led to growth being shored up by a deficient credit infrastructure and a lack of strategic synchronisation between countries. The controlling shareholder then was Courts plc. Inadequate external party credit controls resulted in a sharp increase in bad debts in Malaysia. as the CEO in charge of overall operations. whereby real-time changes are made to in-store store inventories. Courts has overhauled its credit infrastructure in Singapore and Malaysia through (1) hardening its approach to credit approvals. Courts has been able to achieve eve better inventory management and reduced transportation costs. end Though this will incur capex of SGD1. Improvement on operating efficiency. Courts has adopted the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system in Singapore. processes 12 March 2013 Page 5 of 28 . Courts has centralised the management structure to ensure cohesion between the various business segments on a cross-country basis. Additionally. Figure 3: Courts in ASEAN since 1974 Source: IPO Prospectus Redesigned credit facility. the system will synchronise overall efficiency and allow uniform monitoring of cross-country country operating processes. By centralising the supply chain. Mr Chan previously worked with American Express Malaysia. It further closed or relocated stores in Malaysia but kept Malaysia as a core market. Indonesia and Thailand.0 – The Fresh Prince Centralised management anagement structure structure. Since delisting. the previous Singapore CEO who has been with Courts Singapore since 1993. Now. it hired Mr Chan Yuen Kiong as credit director to oversee regional credit facility. Previously. It kept Mr Terence O’Connor. in charge of credit function operations. Courts closed down operations in Thailand and Indonesia to focus on its core operations in Singapore and Malaysia. as well as Ms Kee Kim Eng as the chief financial officer. It will be implementing this system in Malaysia by end-FY3/14.5m. Mal while Singapore logistics are handled by SCS Logistics. separate management teams in each country made it difficult to coordinate strategies for regional expansion efforts. Post-delisting. Closure of non-performing operations. It currently outsources its entire warehousing and deliveries to DHL in Malaysia. and (2) centralising and internalising internalis its entire credit infrastructure in monitoring and collection ection of credit.Courts Asia Courts 2. reintroducing IT products to boost sales volume despite the lower margins. Malaysia – focus on the suburbs. and nd management will improve on existing store productivity by optimising ing product mix. . respectively. Courts rts have added stores in Jerteh. it is on track. Courts’ Courts strategy is to focus on penetration of the suburbs in the Klang Valley area. We estimate it will open a net average of 106. where competition is lower and credit use more common. Retail growth opportunities in Singapore are more limited due to land area limitations. having opened a total of six stores with one expected to open next quarter in Kedah. In Malaysia. Peran and Pontian Pont in 1QFY3/14. 12 March 2013 Page 6 of 28 . closures Malaysia’s electronics distribution industry is more re fragmented than Singapore’s. Ter and Mentakab. Courts is slated to open three new stores in Teluk Intan. So far. Courts will open a new store each in JEM and Westgate in 1QFY3/14 and 3QFY3/14.000 sq ft pa. With plans to open six new stores a year. Figure 4: Number of stores on the rise 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 9 2010 11 2011 13 2012* 13 By end FYMar13 46 +8 52 +5 55 +4 59 Singapore Malaysia Source: IPO Prospectus.since IPO Singapore – improve store productivity.255 sq ft of store space pa between 2014 and 2015. *2012. after factoring in store closures. we have ascribed ascr a conservative average of 80. common Since its IPO. In total.Courts Asia Going The Expansionary Route Focus on store expansion. refurbishment We have ascribed an increase of 26. Terengganu. Kedah.255 sq ft in store space on average between FY3/14F FY and FY3/15F. Courts will have 13 stores in Singapore and 59 stores in Malaysia by end-FY3/13. increase the number of retail concepts and by continual refurbishments. Pahang. We expect the bulk of Courts’ earnings will continue to be generated by Singapore as its base market. Courts has made its intention clear on each country’s expansion strategy. which offers more room for growth in credit sales. an. Malaysia. and will add one more store in Sungai Petani. We have also ascribed an addition of 15.Courts Asia Renewed Foray Into Indonesia Largest store in its regional network in Indonesia.000-sq-ft 100.000 sq ft. management decided to close down all operations to focus on developing its core operations in Singapore and Malaysia. East Jakarta Source: Google map 12 March 2013 Page 7 of 28 .000 sq ft – its way of saying that it is here to stay. and subsequently lease the warehouse and store space. Figure 5: Courts will open its first store in Indonesia at Bekasi. Indonesian sales also accounted for less than 5% of total sales then. asset Courts is currently in discussions with developers lopers in Jakarta to build the facility. Not new to Indonesia. It will be its largest store in the region at over 140. With a new warehouse in place. SGD250 We have ascribed a 30% discount to the industry ASP per sq foot given its large store size. It is eyeing Megastore formats with retail space in excess exce of 60. Now.000 warehouse that will serve as a distribution centre cent for future store openings. eastern Jakarta. In addition to retail space. it intends to apply the expertise developed in Singapore and Malaysia to tap into the robust consumer consumption trends in Indonesia. Indonesia The larger the better. industry average sale price per sq ft stands at SGD250. has been secured and is scheduled to open in 2014. 2014 Currently. Courts’ first site in Bekasi.000 sq ft pa after the debut of the warehouse. the store will also have a 100. In order to stay asset-light. Although Courts’ Indonesian Indonesia business was previously profitable. Courts will be fully set to expand in Jakarta by 2014. with a fully developed in-house house credit facility. 4% Courts Asia 32.1ppt higher than Challenger’s.6% 13. Maybank KE Figure 8: Net margin comparison Challenger 5.0% 2% 1.2% Best Denki 30.1% 17. Figure 6: Gross margin comparison Challenger 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 2010 Source: Factset.5% Source: Factset.0% 31.3% 2010 2011 0. Maybank KE -13. Maybank KE 12 March 2013 Page 8 of 28 .0% 6.7% 20. Maybank KE 2011 2012 -2% 2010 -1. Courts’ ’ EBITDA margin is 3.4% Figure 9: ROE trends 25% 20% 15% 10% 7.4% Best Denki Courts Asia 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -10.3% 5% 2.6% Figure 7: : Operating margin comparison Challenger Best Denki Courts Asia Source: Factset.8% Courts Asia 4. as they usually opt for third-party party services such as those offered by b the major credit card companies.2% 11.5% 6.3% 12.8% -15% Source: Factset.5% 2011 2012 19.6% 8% 6.8% 18.Courts Asia Charge It To My Credit Card Superior margins.7% 2.4% 0% -5% -10% 2010 2011 1.0% 17. We believe the wide difference is due to service charges earned from its in-house house credit facility as well as economies of scale.6% 2.9% 4% 11. No other direct competitors have an in-house house credit facility.0% 5.4% 6% 4.2% 19.3% 2012 Challenger 20.0% 10% 8.8% 5.9% 4.2% 2012 Best Denki 4.6% 0. Figure 10: Singapore – direct sales vs credit. base As of FY3/12. . it is also better able to gauge the preferences of its customer base. in October 2012. Courts extended its offerings into Malaysia. Any tightening in national credit measures will be highly beneficial to Court’s in-house credit facility. this strategy is in line with most modern shopping trends. Digital offers ffers customers a comprehensive IT consultation services.000 products vs its smaller stores which may carry below 1. In addition.Courts Asia Flexible in-house credit facility. In Jan 2013. Source: IPO Prospectus Launch of eCourts. Courts Asia first launched eCourts.9% pa. Although we do not expect eCourts to have a significant impact on our earnings estimates for FY3/13F through to FY3/15F. Maybank KE K Home Club loyalty programme. Digital Similar to Geek Squad of Best Buy in the US. Courts recorded a tripling in growth of ecommerce sales. 12 March 2013 Page 9 of 28 . Courts offers an in-house in credit facility which provides a range of payment options under Courts Flexi Plan in Singapore and Courts Flexi Credit in i Malaysia. Installment payments can be made up to 60 months and the annual interest rate ranges from 11. Courts offers exclusive discounts on products and updates on promotions to its Home Club members. 9MFY3/13 Source: Company data. credit 9MFY3/13 Credit 11% Cash 43% Credit 57% Cash 89% Figure 11: Malaysia – direct sales vs credit. which is moving into cyberspace.6% to 27. The online website has on sale 7. Maybank KE Source: Company data.000 products. an online shopping portal in Singapore. Dr.2m customers. Figure 12: Product concepts Service Concept Countdown Corner Offers limited-time time discounts or promotion on products Sleep Clinic Offers customers ‘expert advice’ on choices of bed Dr. Through the information collected. as it is starting from a low base. depending on the qualifications of the applicant. In 3QFY3/12. Why is in-house house credit facility better than credit card installment plan? Courts’ target audience for credit facility is made up of those who cannot afford credit card loans or meet the minimum requirements re for credit card sign-ups. Courts Asia has more than 1. sg.com.Courts Asia Figure 13: 13 Brand offerings Source: Maybank KE Figure 14: : Snapshot of online website Source: Courts. Maybank KE 12 March 2013 Page 10 of 28 . 7% 33.0% 100.6% 2011 Source: IPO Prospectus 2012 2013 2014 2015 12 March 2013 Page 11 of 28 .cash Sale of goods .6% 41. Sale of goods is the direct purchases made by customers.8% 43.4% 52. whilst the credit sales are derived from principal paid via credit purchases by customers.0% 25.4% 2012 83. of which service charges will only be recognised if it is paid for by customers progressively. By internalizing its credit system.0% 26.5% of overall net sales as of FY3/12.0% 17.8% 32. We estimate e net interest income to be 46.4% 37. while Malaysia accounts for 34% of sale of goods as of FY3/12.3% 8.0% 16. Electronics distributors’ margins have its vulnerabilities as they are price takers in the business. it accounts for 16.6% 47.6% 46. FY3/12 Figure 15: : Breakdown of sales YE Mar Singapore Sale of goods .4% 46.0% 100.5% 8. Courts’ sales are split into sale of goods and earned serviced charges.0% 26.7% 8.7% 33.credit Earned service charges Total net sales Earned service charges Source: Company data.0% 26.7% 34.6% 51.2% 8.6% 9.7% 8.8% 100.5% of total sales as of FY3/12.0% 23. Breakdown of sales.5% 39.0% 100.5% 8.9% 2014E 83.0% 17.7% 33.Courts Asia Retail Consumer Financier Monetising on in-house house credit facility.0% 21.4% 12.2% 2015E 83.1% 40. Courts is able to collect the difference between interest charged to its retail customers and interest charged on its loan facilities.4 of PBT.5% 39.2% 46.8% 100.0% 100.5% 39. it makes up 16.2% 44. Earned service charges.4% Malaysia Sale of goods .8% 53. data MKE estimates Figure 16: Breakdown of gross margin Singapore 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Malaysia Indonesia 53.5% 2013E 83.0% 16.8% 53.3% 7.5% 9.1% 100. While it does not ot report how much interest income contributes to its earnings.3% 2011 83. FY3/ Overall.1% 100.0% 100.4% 48.7% 8. Singapore’s credit sales account for 8% of sales.2% 100.credit Earned service charges Total net sales 2010 78.cash Sale of goods .0% 18.8% 100.2% 8. Service charges harges relate to the repayment which is made in installment over the term of facility.4% 100.0% 15. 563 Source: KE estimate Interest only 1. it takes just 24 months for a 36-month month Flexi credit plan to be repaid and just 19 months for a SmartRental plan.526 1. the principal can be fully repaid sooner the longer the loan tenure.Courts Asia Rapid payback of principal.8 22 36 months 21.439 Malaysia Assuming an average annual EIR of 29% Loan Payment tenure Loan per Total loan (months) amount month (principal+interest) 36 3000 126 4.807 12 3000 287 3.7 15 12 months 26.125 807 439 Months to principal payback 26 19 10 Months to principal payback 24 18 10 Interest only 1.5 19 24 months 23.125 24 3000 159 3. Figure 17: Estimated Flexi credit plan for a SGD3. For example.000 item Smart Rental EIR No. of month to payback Rates (%) principal 48 months 19. For a 12-month month loan.000/MYR3. However.000 loan Singapore Assuming an average annual EIR of 22% Loan Payment tenure Loan per Total loan (months) amount month (principal+interest) 36 3000 115 4.526 24 3000 169 4.4 9 Source: From Courts website tool. we estimate that principal will be fully repaid in 10 months under the normal Flexi credit plan and 9 months under the SmartRent plan.063 12 3000 297 3.063 563 Figure 18: SmartRental plan on a SGD1. KE estimate Term within loan to take back principal 46% 53% 64% 77% 12 March 2013 Page 12 of 28 . around 84% and 68% of credit users are repeat customers in Singapore and Malaysia. Indonesia and Thailand.2% in Singapore. respectively. This led to the eventual closure of Thailand’s and Indonesia’s operations. Courts has since overhauled its credit infrastructure in Singapore and Malaysia through (1) hardening its approach to credit approvals.6% in Malaysia and from 4. Courts has streamlined and shortened its credit approval process by accepting only customers who have a record of timely payments and meet certain pre-determined limits based on monthly salaries and other factors.Courts Asia Hardened Approach To o Credit Collection Rebuilding of credit infrastructure. Bottom: Singapore) Source: IPO Prospectus 12 March 2013 Page 13 of 28 . Inadequate credit controls caused a sharp jump in bad debts. For first-time time customers. especially in Malaysia. Figure 19: Delinquency rate (Top: Malaysia. The old Courts was a victim of poorly designed credit infrastructure. and (2) centralising and internalising internali its entire credit infrastructure in the monitoring and collection of credit. Centralised credit system to monitor rise in bad debt. Consolidated data is reviewed on a bi-annual basis to keep risk levels manageable. As of FY3/12. it can synchronise its credit portfolio risk management in both countries.4% to 9. a more detailed process will be drawn out. debt Courts currently has a Credit Management-Information Information-System (MIS) that supports both its Singapore and Malaysian operations. Between 2010 and 2012. By centralising its credit system.4% to 3. as well as detect signs of credit deterioration early and pinpoint key credit performance benchmark. delinquency rates fell from a high of 15. Stringent procedures implemented. with the amount available for drawdown dependent on the size and quality of eligible receivables. which in turn drives revenue. It works on the same basis as the Singapore arrangement except that the Malaysian receivables must be rated AAA by the Ratings Agency of Malaysia (Singapore receivables do not need to be rated). Singapore receivables do not need to be rated but are subject to review. We expect Courts to utilize its funds progressively to set up its credit facility after Indonesia operation begins. it will first utilize field collection units or external collection agencies. and will boost earnings. Courts pays a fixed interest rate of 5. Mezzanine and Junior tranches. monthly repayments are deposited into a central centra collections account and are made available to Courts as working capital after deducting for the yields payable to the Senior and Mezzanine beneficiary. . Courts can draw down up to 70% of the eligible e receivables sold to Assetrust. the three banks have provided Courts with a Senior Loan Facility of up to MYR350m (with a fixed interest rate of 6.59x.6% of gross receivables as of 3QYMar 2-13. Essentially. the credit receivables are sold into a Special Purpose P Vehicle (SPV) called Assetrust in Singapore and Vista Lavender Sdn Bhd (VLSB) in Malaysia. Courts holds an asset-light asset balance sheet. it may take legal action via the small claims tribunal. where 68% of its total assets are held in receivables and 11% in inventories. OCBC Bank and HwangDBS Investment Bank). Fixed assets only accounted for 3% of total assets. Collection of payments. Almost all of its debt is tied to its in-house house credit facility. Since IPO.6% for amounts up to MYR265m and KLIBOR+spread for the rest). Quality of receivables matters. How impairment losses are handled.5% pa for the first SGD94m and Singapore SOR+spread on the balance. The receivables are packaged into Senior.Courts Asia How Courts finances its credit facility Asset-light balance sheet. we argue that highly stringent procedures which Courts have implemented will be enough to keep its delinquency rates low. The program expires in 2017. nce. it has as held a low net gearing geari of 0. Courts has a 100% write-off policy with the treatment of impairment loss which averages 4. there is credit risk involved as Courts assumes 100% liability for the SPVs. However. For Singapore. Trade receivables receiva are rated at least AAA ratio to qualify before packaged into Senior Loan Facility in Malaysia. 12 March 2013 Page 14 of 28 . Even when the receivable is written off. Financed inanced through loan securitisation. Inherently. If such methods are unsuccessful. Courts continues to pursue impairment losses. Any payment done after write-off write will be recorded under Other Income in the P&L. Courts finances its credit facility by packaging its consumer credit loan receivables into in two separate asset securitisation arrangements in Singapore and Malaysia. with HSBC Bank in Singapore and a syndicate of banks in Malaysia (HSBC Bank. For receivables which Courts is unable to collect. and the banks will provide Courts with credit facilities backed by the cashflow from these receivables. For Malaysia. 4% 4. and by 4th year.1% 9M11 2.6% 19. 3 + 2 years from 2012 Up to MYR350m 6.1% 6.6% 2011 3.1 2.2% 6.0 2. such as consolidated gearing ratio can't be more than 1.6% 4.7% 6.7% 17.25x during consolidated period 5) Main ain shareholder ARG can't fall below 20% AAA by RAM Rating Service Berhad Tenure How much can be drawn down? Effective rate of interest (%) Who bears the risk? Safety measures Credit rating Source: IPO prospectus Not necessary Figure 21: : Delinquency losses YE Mar Singapore Allowance for impairment (%) SGD’m Actual impairment loss (%) Malaysia Allowance for impairment (%) SGD’m Actual impairment loss (%) Source: Company data 2010 3.40x during revolving period. it turns t into a fully-amortising amortising term loan facility. First 3 years is under revolving credit facility.5% 25.6% 19.4% 9M12 2.1% 2012 2.2% 12 March 2013 Page 15 of 28 .2 7.5% pa on first SGD94m. and 1.8 4.1% 10. Senior Loan Facility Malaysia Senior Loan Facility up to RM350m has been committed by the lenders.2 2.8% 18.5% 5. SOR+spread on balance Courts Packaged receivables packed into various tranches.8% 4.9 4.1 6. KLIBOR+spread on balance Courts 1) Absolute bsolute agreement to the receivables acquired by VLSB from CMB 2) A debenture creating a fixed and floating charge over present and future assets of CMB & VLSB 3) Corporate orporate guarantee by CMB for all liabilities owed under the loan 4) Maintenance of certain financial ratios.Courts Asia Figure 20: Credit facility ility financing arrangements Country Type Asset Securitisation Program 2012 Singapore Packaging of receivables into Special Purpose Vehicle (Assetrust) (Assetrust where eligible receivables can be sold.9 5.9 3.6% pa on first MYR253m.0 2. 5 years from 2012 Dependent on amount of eligible receivables 5.7% 5. and capital can be drawn down for up to 70% of the eligible receivables.0% 5. 0% 8.000 0 107.6% 53.7% 13.8% 1.0% 100% 1.0% 6.8 0.0% 6.0% 7.509 80.7% 0.7 and 13.573* 36.9%.9% 8.0% 100% 913 171 2011 95.341 247 200 5.4% 0.6% 6.0 46.8% 0.2% 52.9%.0% 27.1% 1.0% 7.000 245.2% 53.069 0 12 March 2013 Page 16 of 28 . where credit sales are preferred. Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Total Source: Maybank KE estimates *Since IPO 83.1% 12.4% 53.4 132.0 47.0% 8.0 48.007.5 0.0% 7.7 119.182 211 2014F 135.0 46.0% 8.069 140.2% 12.0% 1.Courts Asia Earnings Projections Net earnings CAGR of 13.708 927.9% -1.2% 8.6% 51.000 140.8% 6. We expect Courts will deliver a threeyear sales ales and net earnings CAGR of 13.6 97.0% 8.0% 6.8% 0.092 194 2013F 118.8% 7.573* 7.0% 2.5 0.0% 1.0% 7.5% 12. .0% 6.8% 11. Malaysia’s contribution looks set to increase as Courts penetrates further into the Klang Valley suburbs.6% 1.3% 9.9% 0.0% 100% 1.2 109.8% 100% 1.069 0 392.3% 1.2 157.0% 25.0% -4.199 847.2 0. Figure 22: : Sales assumptions assumption per sq ft 2010 Sales breakdown Singapore Malaysia Indonesia % of sales Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Sales per sq ft Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Growth (%) Singapore Malaysia Singapore SSSG (%) Megastore Superstore store Small-format format store Malaysia SSSG (%) Megastore Superstore Small-format format store GFA increase (sq ft) Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Total GFA approx.267 232 2015F 151.509 426.0 46.708 1. this will allow it to match the industry’s sales growth. In Indonesia.0 44. In time.000 80.000 451.626* 811.0% 100% 1.6% 0.6 0.8% 0.5 182. respectively.0% 11.000 6. it will take some time before it achieves industry average per sq ft sales. but we expect the IPO proceeds will be used u to build a solid credit infrastructure like that in Singapore and Malaysia as this is a key driver of Courts’ business model.3% 14.0% 8.3% 7.2% 53.0% 100% 972 192 2012 112.8% 9.3% 31.069* 0 399.000* 0* 42.1 6. 0 -2.7 -3.7 61.9 -35.Courts Asia Figure 23: Quarterly results Sales Cost of sales Gross profit Other income Distribution and marketing Administrative Finance Profit before tax Tax Net profit EPS ( SG ct) 1Q12 171.91 4Q12 183.3 0.7 18.5 61.9 -1.7 57.4 19.0 -3. We also expect continual improvement in same store sales for its newly opened stores.3 -33.6 6.5 0.8 -116. especially the relaunch of Megastore in Tampines.4 7.3 16.7 -14.7 2.8 -3. But there could be a small dip QoQ in the absence of a one-off corporate porate service agreement charge paid by ARG and currency gains in 4QFY3/12. In FY3/12.3 0.5 58.3 0.3 5.6 2.95 3Q12 178.2 8.4 73. Maybank KE estimates *Forecast Seasonality changes.4 -16.2 -3.5 1.2 -27. 12.7 -15.2 1.7 -2.9 1.2 10.10 4Q13* 177.8 -16.9 15.8 -14.8 -15. accounting for 40% of full-year full earnings.1 15.8 3.6 -30.3 6.1 -4.8 14.3 6.7 1.78 1Q13 194.5 -1. We expect 4QFY3/13F to post robust numbers on seasonal strength.8 1.1 -29.20 2Q13 215. 12 March 2013 Page 17 of 28 . 4QFY3/12 should be the strongest quarter for Courts.4 -31.0 7.4 -1.7 -124.7 8.9 -28.8 -142.7 54.0 -116.8 0.2 -3.9 -15.6 13.9 2.2 -13.1 0.3 -1. The second and fourth quarters are Courts’ strongest quarters due to the festival of Eid and Chinese New Year celebrations.2 -4.2 -4.39 2Q12 191.0 -121.44 Source: Company data.8 61.5 -137.4 -5. .4 -129.3 2.1 54.3 -2.4 -27.84 3Q13 195.0 -135. Courts’ margins have shown show progressive improvement between 2010 and 2012.2% Source: Company data. Singapore generated a three-year year average gross margin of 21. where credit use is more common. We expect operating cost to maintain stable.5ppt is undoubtedly superior to Challenger’s.0% 16. efficiency Despite cost pressures. Figure 24: 24 Margin trend Gross profit margin 60% 50% 40% 31.1% 8.2% Distribution and m exp 16.0% 12.0% 49.0% 8.0% 51. . Gross margin trend has remained highly stable at between 30% and 32%. Courts’ current operating margin spread of 5.9% 8.5% 49.0% 32. Courts has hired consultancy group Bain Company between 2QFY3/13 and 3QFY3/13 to improve its cost efficiency.9% 50.0% 23.0% 10.1% 23. as well as penetration into a new market.1% 8.2% 16.Courts Asia Financial Analysis Margin trend.1% Admin exp 16.1% 8.1-0.0% 48.2% 30% 21. heading slightly up by 0. Maybank Kim Eng 12 March 2013 Page 18 of 28 .1% 16.0% 14.9%.1% 30.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 8. thanks to increased contributions con from service agreement charges and better management of operating costs.1% 32.5% 20% 10% 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 21. Maybank Kim Eng Operating expenses.0% 16.4% 32. We expect gross margin to hold steady even as business expansion expan ramps up in Malaysia and Indonesia.2% 23.0% 6.5%.5% Singapore gross margin Malaysia gross margin 32.2ppts 2ppts between 2013 and 2015 due to labour and rental cost pressures. as opposed to Malaysia’s three-year year average gross margin of 50. goods Malaysia commands stronger gross margin. Figure 25: 25 SG&A ratio trend 18.0% 23. This includes service charges imposed on credit purchases in each country. while product mix is skewing towards electronic goods.0% Source: Company data.5% 48. and Courts will be making its foray into a new market. Courts does not have an official dividend policy. We estimate Courts will need an average capex of SGD10m over 2013-15 for its store expansion and refurbishment regionally. Small-sized sized outlets could be closed as quickly as three months. We anticipate a small spike in 2015 for the construction of the warehouse in Indonesia. Maybank KE estimates 12 March 2013 Page 19 of 28 . base high commission salary structure to incentivise its workers to make more sales. Figure 26: Dividend per share (SG cts) vs yield (%) DPS 30. Following a restructuring exercise from 2009 to 2012.Courts Asia Salary structure. se. as Singapore’s foreign worker levy is on the rise. its existence will be reviewed.0 0. As of end-FY3/12. Capital expenditure.0 20. However. .0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10. given its strong operating cash flow. No fixed dividend policy as yet. We believe Courts will be able to deliver 30% dividend payout after FY3/14F.0% Source: Company data. We estimate FY3/14F dividend yield at 3%. market which will require additional manpower.0 5.0 25. while larger outlets would require further deliberation of up to 12 months.0 15. .0% 5.0% 0. If a store fails to achieve a certain percentage of operational efficiency.0% 10.0 15. Courts relies on a low fixed base. We expect labour costs to increase. Rental costs. it plans to pay out 30% of its net profit in FY3/13F and FY3/14F. end Courts has 695 employees in Singapore and 1.0% 25.261 employees in Malaysia.0% Yield (%) 35. Courts has rationalised ed its store footprint in Singapore and Malaysia by closing unprofitable ones and refurbishing or relocating others.0% 30.0% 20. Courts operates in a highly competitive landscape where the sale prices of products are essentially the same across the industry.Courts Asia Risks Stakeholder to reduce its stake. . of which we are expecting the investors to loosen their grip on Courts to free up liquidity. will be based on KIBOR and a spread. holds a 68. depending on how well the economy is doing. However. The lockup period will be th until April 15 2013. In Malaysia. Highly competitive landscape. This may create temporary share price pressure. If this eventuates. In the Asset Securitisation Programme of Singapore. During economic downturns. Interest rate sensitivity. 12 March 2013 Page 20 of 28 . credit risk on its trade receivables may spike up and lead to higher delinquency rates and hence. bad debt write-offs. borrowings which are held at variable rates with no fixed hedging. the remainder after RM253m. Credit risk from in-house house credit facility. 10. Courts has some borrowings.9% of eligible receivables drawn down are under a variable interest rate scheme. Courts’ stakeholder.2% stake in Courts Asia. Asia Retail Group. preferring to lease from landlords. Courts relies heavily on its credit facility. Rental risks. This may force lending banks to renegotiate for higher interest rates or apply more stringent measures on receivables to reduce their risk exposure. . this puts it at risk of rental increases. Courts strives to hold on to an asset-light business model. it will be detrimental to Courts’ earnings model. Going forward. as ASEAN consumers become more technology conscious. recorders Air conditioners Vision accessories Dryers IT Computers Desktops Laptops Small appliances Vacuum cleaners Toasters & blenders Fans Electric irons Cordless phones Photography Digital camera Camcorders Photographic accessories Audio Home theatre systems Amplifiers Speakers Portable audio equipment Accessories cessories Monitors Keyboards Peripherals (printer) Mobile Mobile phones Mobile accessories Smart phones Tablets Source: IPO prospectus Figure 28: Singapore – sales mix as of FY3/12 12 Services 4% Furniture 19% Electrical products 42% Figure 29: Malaysia – sales mix as of FY3/12 FY Services 10% Furniture 21% Electrical products 45% IT Products 35% IT Products 24% Source: Company data.Courts Asia Business Overview Company background. Maybank KE K 12 March 2013 Page 21 of 28 .9% of total sales as of FY3/12. it has 55 stores in Malaysia and 13 stores in Singapore. while furniture accounted for 19% of sales. spanning more than 1m sq ft in total. Moving into electronics industry. IT and furniture product retailers lers in Singapore and Malaysia. Figure 27: : Electronic and IT offerings in Courts Electrical products Major white goods Vision Refrigerators/ freezer Television sets Washing machines Video players. we expect sales contribution will continue to come from electronic products. Courts Asia made the move to reenter the IT industry in Malaysia in 2007 because of the high sales volume. with a presence for more than 35 years in Singapore and more than 25 years in Malaysia. As of 3QFY3/13. Electrical and IT products accounted ed for 76. Maybank KE Source: Company data. Courts Asia is one of the leading electrical. (Ikea) 3.4% 5.1% Courts Mammoth Sdn 5.6% pa in Malaysia between 2012 and 2016.6% 75.0% 3.6% between 2009 and 2011.6% 100% 100% Source: IPO Prospectus. Retail space expanding.0% Norman) Ikano Corp Sdn (Ikea) 3. Demand for electronics products product rises as consumers become more technologically savvy. The electronics market is highly driven by consumer confidence and spending. In Singapore.5% Pertama Holdings 7.1% of market share in Singapore. whereas Best Denki and Harvey Norman grew more modestly.5% Elitetrax Marketing Sdn (Harvey 2. In 2014. the electronics and furniture industries in Singapore are fragmented.0% 6.5% 3.2% Best Denki Malaysia 1.0% 3. which fell 7.2% 6.8% in the same year.7% 6. Challenger appears to be the competitor to watch out for. taking 9. In general. Retail space is expected to grow at 0. Euromonitor International 2011 9.9% 2. and by 0.2% and 3. In Malaysia.8% of market share. as it saw the largest jump in market share of 25% between 2009 and 2011.1% and 1. and 3.8% Challenger Technologies 4.5% 9. 12 March 2013 Page 22 of 28 .3% CAGR in Singapore over 2012 to 2016. Furniture market trend.6% of market share in Malaysia in 2011.2% 3.2% 3. The company grew at 3.1% of total market size in 2011.8% 7.2% 100% 100% Source: IPO Prospectus. with respectively 7. However.9% 100% Figure 31: Malaysia – top five retailers by retail sales value 2009 2010 Senheng Electric (KL) 7. y Courts is the largest retailer in Singapore.9% 7. IKEA provides an integrated experience with an in-house in restaurant and play area for children. According to Euromonitor International. with the top five players accounting for only 33.6% 77. they are even more fragmented with the top five players accounting for only 24.5% 67.6% 7. retail space is getting larger and larger as consumers love the convenience of finding everything in the same store. IKEA will also be opening its first store in Jakarta. this means retailers must be careful in managing their inventory as consumers have no qualms about moving on to the latest and greatest product.8% 6.0% 8. IKEA would be Courts’ biggest competitor in both Singapore and Malaysia.3% CAGR compared to Denki.1% Others 69. Euromonitor International 2011 9. which grows in tandem with economic recovery. In the furniture industry. In Malaysia. Senheng registered the highest value CAGR of 21% from 2009 to 2011 by offering a strong customer experience.Courts Asia Industry Overview Largest player in Singapore. Figure 30: Singapore – top five retailers by retail sales value 2009 2010 Courts (Singapore) 8.1% 1.2% 100% Electronics market trend. Common names in both th countries would include IKEA and Best Denki.3% Ikano Pte.1% 3.7% Best Denki (Singapore) 7.1% Others 79.1% 66. holding h concurrent positions of Deputy Managing Director. as well as an adjunct professor at INSEAD from 2006 to 2008. Regional Credit Director Mr Chan was previously the Country Manager and Head of Consumer Services at American Express (M) Sdn in Malaysia. he has held positions such as Commercial Director and Country Director in Courts Singapore. he has held positions as Business Controller. Subsequently. and Head of Operations and Technology ology at Citibank Berhad.Courts Asia Management Structure Mr Terence Donald O’Connor. He has worked with Courts Malaysia since 2006 and was appointed Regional Credit Director in April 2011. He is the Chairman of the Remuneration Committee. and led the company through some of its most difficult times. which is the controlling stakeholder of Courts Asia. He is also the President of the Institute of Advertising Singapore. Ms Kee Kim Eng. Source: IPO Prospectus 12 March 2013 Page 23 of 28 . Ms Kee has more than 25 years of experience in various public listed companies from a diverse range of industries. where he taught a course on leveraged buyout. Head of Bankcard Head Business. He was appointed Chief Operating Officer of Courts Asia in April 2011. She holds an ACCA qualification. an Australian private equity firm. She was appointed an Executive Director in March 2010 and joined the board of directors in May 2012. Previously. Mr James Edward Friel. Mr Hennessy was a General Partner with Allen & Buckeridge. as well as the Nominating Committee. Mr O’Connor was appointed the CEO in April 2011. qualification Mr Jack Hennessy. Executive Director and CFO Ms Kee has been with Courts Singapore since 1996. He has worked his way up the ranks from Electrical Buying Director at Courts (Mauritius). Mr Chan Yuen Kiong. Finance Director and Company Secretary. Executive Director and CEO Mr O’Connor has been with Courts Singapore since 1993. to Managing Director and CEO of Courts Malaysia between 2005 and 2008. Non-independent independent and Non-Executive Non Director Mr Hennessy is the managing director of Barings Baring Private Equity Asia. Previously. Chief Operating Officer Mr Friel has been with the Courts family since 1997. He was the Managing Director from 2000 to 2007. Malaysia where he was in charge of credit functions. 0 (19.2 66.1 12.4 13.7 0.1 342.2) 0.0 133. & ST debt (X) Current ratio (X) Quick ratio (X) Net cash/(debt) (SGD m) Per share data (SGD) EPS CFPS BVPS SPS EBITDA/share DPS 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 16.2 219.7 372.0 140.5 49.5 16.0) 0.8 228.7 462.3 276.5% 7.2 9.5 2014F 677.6 270.5% 18.8) 50.2 50.7 308.1 (723.1 269.1 16.8 1.5 (13.6) 281.7) 39.8% 9.2) 22.9 (16.1 8.4 32.3 173.8 173.5) 71.9 135.7 112.5 127.5 (15.Courts Asia PROFIT AND LOSS (SGD m) FY Mar Sales Cost of goods sold Gross profit Operating expenses Operating Profit Other income Net interest Interest income interest expense Pretax income Income taxes Net profit EBITDA EPS (S cts) 2011 674.7% 19.6 84.9% 9.5% 15.0 52.4 270.3% 13.1 26.7) (1.6 17.2 9.3 152.3) 82.9 242.2 100.9 8.0% 7.0 279.0 3.2 275.9 97.4 43.5 8.4 11.8 (9.8 4.7 7.4% 5.2% na na na na 1.7) 62.5 27. coverage (X) Cash flow int.1 289.1 77.6 2.0 (620.5 7.0 145.4 124.0 (168.6 2012 6.7 82.2 5. & ST debt coverage (X) Cash flow int.7 1.4) 48.0 (10.9 47.9 59.2) 0.5) (8.1) 47.1% 4.6 183.6) 50.2 (0.1) 205.4) 42.2 7.0) 72.0 5.4% 7.8) 2013F 651.1) (26.3) 0.5 43.6 (10.0 1.2) 58.3 58. Financing cash flow Change in share capital Net change in debt Change in other LT liab.5 (13.7 41.8% 5.0 32.5 2013F (13.5% 7.3 12.1 (1.2 1.9% 9.0 18.5 (14.1) (2.4 4.5 (11.4 21.9 CASH FLOW (SGD m) FY Mar Operating cash flow Operating profit Depreciation & amortisation Change in working capital Others Investment cash flow Net capex Change in LT investment Change in other assets Cash flow after invt.1 236.7% 5.9) 2015F 48.0 430.2) 231.2 32.6 15.6 4.3 7.6) 8.7% 60.3) (17.7% 5.8) (1.0 66.9) 0.1 5.4 5.3 266.1 (1.9 17.4 76. Net cash flow 2011 25.1 2015F 1063.9 4.7 12.5) 0.9) (31.4 70.3 28.1 28.5) 0.7% na na na na 2.9% na na na na 1.0 (14.8 98.4) (9.3 (17.6 2014F 913.5 1.2 178.2 2015F 755.8 15.0 20.1 (532.8 2012 724.4 13.0 251.7 2012 561.2) 292.8 7.7 (257.0 233.3) (7.3 32.9) 29.9 (188.0 324.0 25.4 BALANCE SHEET (SGD m) FY Mar Total assets Current assets Cash & ST investment Inventories Accounts receivable Others Other assets LT investments Net fixed assets Others Total liabilities Current liabilities Accounts payable ST borrowings Others Long-term liabilities Long-term debts Others Shareholder's equity Paid-in capital Reserve 2011 510.4 33.2) 250.8 59.5 7.0 2.5 8.1 30.2 (51.7% na na na na 2.4 18.6 196.7 22.1 (56.6 (26.9 3.3% 61.3 4.4) 5.1 174.9 9.1 6.7 176.2 143.5% na na na na 2.4 2014F 14.0 252.8 24.0 39.5 (17.6 0.4 8.9 (174.7) (11.8 377.5) 7.1 8.5 261.7 14.3 75.1 (14.3 16.9 9.5 8.0 300.5% 5.3 221.8 (47.0 5.7 224.2 1.6 25.1 (3.9 270.0 215.0 (17.4% 52.1 (8. coverage (X) Int.4 53.2 9.7 (11.0% 7.9 208.7 170.9 221.8 147.6) 0.4% 6.9 89.7 5.3 1.3 84.2 (492.2 8.7) (7.0% 7.5 2.1) (9.1 232.5 4.4 220.5 32.6) (15.3 220.7 74.3 14.0 102.0) 37.4 6.5 7.5 (19.1) 25.6 375.0 (22.9) 8.2 29.5 39.9 10.4 KEY RATIOS FY Mar Growth (% YoY) Sales Operating profit EBITDA Net profit EPS Profitability (%) Gross margin Operating margin EBITDA margin Net margin ROA ROE Stability Gross debt/equity (%) Net debt/equity (%) Int.7 19.2 97.8) 7.4) 0.0 (14.3 1.0 0.2% 65.6% 7.9 (220.2) 42.2) 0.0 0.0 (16.1 9.4 8.5 41.3 7.9) 57.9 57.1 (469.0) (10.1% 8.3) 51.5) (19.0 (12.9 2.0) (9.7 2.6 5.1 12.7 32.2 22.2 1.6 29.5 0.1 396.9 20.5 10.4) 339.1) 19.4 228.8% 60.3 1.8) (10.6 73.9% 93.2 167.5 39.1 Source: Company.8% 6.4 (14.0% 18.0) 1.6% 35.1 23.6 292.0 2013F 783.4 201.0 7.4% 83.0 56.2 47.7 (17.6) 62.0 6.9 (12. 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Research & Economics (65) 6432 1821 pk.nguyen@ Food and Beverage Oil and Gas Ngo Bich Van van.Courts Asia RESEARCH OFFICES REGIONAL P K BASU Regional Head.hk HK Property Industrial Jacqueline KO.Regional Mohshin AZIZ (603) 2297 8692 mohshin.com.com Strategy Laura DY-LIACCO (63) 2 849 8840 [email protected]@maybank-ib.sg Offshore & Marine Alison FOK (65) 6432 1447 [email protected] pongrat.sg Technology & Manufacturing Telcos [email protected]@maybank-ke.co.co.hk Banking & Finance Ivan [email protected]@maybank-ib.com Oil & Gas Automotive Shipping ONG Chee Ting.co.Regional Wilson LIEW (65) 6432 1454 [email protected]@maybank Banking & Finance Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 [email protected] Consumer Andy POON (852) 2268 0645 andypoon@kimeng. WICAKSONO (62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected]@maybank-ke.sg REITs / Property Wei Bin (65) 6432 1455 [email protected] Consumer Media Cement Kenneth NERECINA (63) 2 849 8839 [email protected] Power Telcos WONG Wei Sum.id Base metals Mining Oil & Gas Wholesale Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 2557 1128 rahmi.in Technology Media Varun VARMA (91) 226623 2611 [email protected]@maybank-ke.id Technicals HONG KONG / CHINA Todd MARTIN Head of Research (852) 2268 0638 [email protected] Technicals SINGAPORE Gregory YAP Head of Research (65) 6432 1450 [email protected] LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688 [email protected] Utilities Conglomerates Telcos Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841 [email protected]@maybank-ib.hk China Property Jeremy TAN (852) 2268 0635 jeremytan@kimeng. CFA (603) 2297 8690 chiwei. Chatchai JINDARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1401 chatchai.co.com.sg Hotel & Resort Property & Construction James KOH (65) 6432 1431 [email protected] Technology .com.vn thoa.co.th [email protected]. CFA (65) 6432 1460 [email protected]@maybank-ib. CPA (603) 2297 8916 samuel.id Banking Multifinance Pandu ANUGRAH (62) 21 2557 1137 pandu.com Tim LEELAHAPHAN Thailand (662) 658 1420 tim.com.th Electronics Pongrat RATANATAVANANANDA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1398 [email protected] Luz LORENZO Philippines | Indonesia (63) 2 849 8836 [email protected]@[email protected]@maybank Strategy Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 suttatip.ngo@ (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8084 van. CA (603) 2297 8678 ct.hk Telecom & equipment Alex YEUNG (852) 2268 0636 [email protected] Strategy Construction & Infrastructure Desmond CH’NG. CFA (852) 2268 0634 [email protected] Mining 12 March 2013 Page 25 of 28 .th Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1440 [email protected]. CA Acting Regional Head of Institutional Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected] Property & REITs LEE Yen Ling (603) 2297 8691 lee.com. Maybank Kim Eng Research Rese Pte. 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The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions juri or to certain categories of investors. r therefore. from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report. “forecast”. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (“MBKET”) does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result. accounting or tax advice. associates. indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance reli of this report. altered in any way. availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. If the recipient of this th report is not an accredited investor. if any. Investors should therefore seek financial. Any information. “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. or other investments related thereto. Without prejudice to the foregoing.Courts Asia APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT. “predict” and “project” and statements that an event event or result “may”. opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time. and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. connected connec parties and/or employees (collectively. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives. MKE may. in such securities or options thereon. Nothing in this report should be considered consider as constituting legal. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently indepe verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad. One or more directors. MKE expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information. This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”. DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES DISCLAIMERS This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. This report rep is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. recipients r of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from. this report. with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law. and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy. 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Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related volume information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. country or other jurisdiction where such distribution. MKE and its officers. Ltd. “plan”. Malaysia Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental funda ratings. perform p services for or solicit business from such issuers. including persons persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related volume related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis. and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent indepen tax advisers. Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable liabl for the contents of this report. (“Maybank KERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. 12 March 2013 Page 26 of 28 . the survey may be changed after that date. This document is not intended intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. US This research report prepared by MKE is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined defin in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange hange Act of 1934. legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. “should”. investors’ returns may ma be less than the original sum invested. statemen Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking forward looking statements. UK This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regulated. no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior pri written permission of MBKET. Thailand losure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant pur to the policy of the The disclosure Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this report. to the extent permitted by law. In addition. as amended). “intend”. Singapore This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. regula by the Financial Services Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. “estimate”. publication. may.The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. directors. or in connection with. or the research or analysis on which they are based. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently current available to us and are subject to certain risks and d uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. “will”. before the material is published. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments investment to you under relevant legislation and regulations. directors and employees. “can”. MBKET BKET accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report. its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively. copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. expert investor or institutional onal investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act). This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality. the reader is to note that additional disclaimers. as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”). Accordingly. transmitted to. The result. “ant “believe”. As a result. Accordingly. events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect refle the occurrence of unanticipated events. is from the perspective of a third party. Maybank Kim Eng Research Definition of Ratings Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system: BUY HOLD SELL Return is expected to be above 10% % in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) Return is expected to be between . market market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Singapore: As of 12 March 2013. No. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic. KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. INM 000011708) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim Eng Securities JSC (License Number: 71/UBCK-GP) GP) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam.Courts Asia DISCLOSURES Legal Entities Disclosures Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) (15938 H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. rt. No. Reg No 197201256N) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.A. or currently may make a primary market in issues of. the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements requirem under Paragraph 16. is or will be. but not limited to. Therefore. Thailand: MBKET (Reg.01-2004-00019) No. financial fi and political factors (including. Indonesia: PT Kim Eng Securities (“PTKES”) (Reg. Depreciation And Amortisation EPS = Earnings Per Share EV = Enterprise Value FCF = Free Cashflow FV = Fair Value FY = Financial Year FYE = Financial Year End MoM = Month-On-Month NAV = Net Asset Value NTA = Net Tangible Asset P = Price P. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. within the last three years. connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. = Per Annum PAT = Profit After Tax PBT = Profit Before Tax PE = Price Earnings PEG = PE Ratio To Growth PER = PE Ratio QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter Quarter ROA = Return On Asset ROE = Return On Equity ROSF = Return On Shareholders’ Funds WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital YoY = Year-On-Year YTD = Year-To-Date 12 March 2013 Page 27 of 28 . advisory and other services for or relating to those companies.10% % to +10% +1 in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) Return is expected to be below -10% % in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) Applicability of Ratings The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks. photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. MBKET. directors. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies. No. time to maturity. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited ted (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Stoc Exchange (Reg. served as manager or co-manager co manager of a public offering of securities for. typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated soph investors who are capable of understanding nding and assuming the risks involved. . KESI is also registered with SEBI SE as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. or have provided within the previous 12 months. Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. OTHERS Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No. its associates. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. KEP-251/PM/1992) 251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Investment Investm ratings are only applicable icable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. . directly or indirectly. Maybank KERPL and the covering covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. MKE may have. INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India.01 00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Disclosure of Interest Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein he and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services. As of 12 March 2013. and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was. Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments. No part of this material may be copied. No. Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear): Adex = Advertising Expenditure BV = Book Value CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate Capex = Capital Expenditure CY = Calendar Year DCF = Discounted Cashflow DPS = Dividend Per Share EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax EBITDA = EBIT. any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing. Ong Seng Yeow | Executive Director. spot and forward interest and exchange rates). Tower One & Exchange Plaza Ayala Triangle. 255 Tran Hung Dao St. U.com 12 March 2013 Page 28 of 28 .21st Floor. Indonesia Tel: (62) 21 2557 1188 Fax: (62) 21 2557 1189 Vietnam In association with Kim Eng Securities India Pvt Ltd 2nd Floor. 20 St. Ayala Avenue Makati City. Rama 1 Road Pathumwan.1. Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888 Fax: (603) 2282 5136 Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd 9 Temasek Boulevard #39-00 00 Suntec Tower 2 Singapore 038989 Tel: (65) 6336 9090 Fax: (65) 6339 6003 Hong Kong Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd 6/F.6623. 1 Queen’s Road East. Maharishi Karve Road. Churchgate Station.S.com. Three Pacific Place.400 020.2604 Saudi Arabia In association with Philippines Thailand Maybank ATR Kim Eng Securities Inc. Tower C. Tel: (212) 688 8886 Fax: (212) 688 3500 India Kim Eng Securities (HK) Ltd Level 30. 17/F.com. Box 126575 Jeddah 21352 Tel: (966) 2 6068686 Fax: (966) 26068787 South Asia Sales Trading North Asia Sales Trading Kevin Foy kevinfoy@maybank-ke. Fax: (603) 2078 4194 Stockbroking Business: Level 8.hk Tel: (852) 2268 0800 US Toll Free: 1 866 598 2267 www.O. Vietnam Tel : (84) 844 555 888 Fax : (84) 838 38 66 39 Anfaal Capital Villa 47.22.com | www. 20th .maybank-keresearch. 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Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2268 0800 Fax: (852) 2877 0104 PT Kim Eng Securities Plaza Bapindo Citibank Tower 17th Floor Jl Jend.6623.Courts Asia Malaysia Singapore London New York Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor. District 1 Ho Chi Minh City. NY 10017.2600 Fax: (91). India Tel: (91). Sudirman Kav.A.
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