Tindak Malaysia: Together we can make a difference1 An assessment of the electoral & financial outlook for Malaysia. What the numbers tell us and what conclusions to draw from it. 2 6 POINTS: 1. BN cannot lose, 2. They know they are in trouble. 3. Their solution: push Malaysia into bankruptcy, 4. IMF come in to clean up the mess. Blame IMF for problems later, 5. New Rat Race System starts. 6. You don’t have to believe a word that is said! 3 COM Questions: 1. How did we get here? 3. How can we make it better? 4 . Where are we headed? 4.RATIONALE BEHIND TINDAKMALAYSIA. Where are we? 2. to ensure elections in Malaysia are free and fair. Tindak Malaysia supports the reason why the Election Commission was formed .A group of caring Malaysians carrying out community service through voter education and PACABA Training. (Federal Constitution Article 114) . (Elections Act S 5 (1a)) EC has to enjoy public confidence. We believe that “Power Corrupts. We are pro-Rakyat and accept any party that is voted in freely and fairly. . We take the position that there must be checks and balances and that no one party should hold too much power.Our training is based on the election laws and is politically-neutral. And Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely”. Introduction. 7 .• • • • • Mobile phone to silent mode. Stickers. Expected results. Outline of Programme and duration. bullies and corrupt! The ABC’s of politics. 8 .Tindak Malaysia strategy: • Understand the principles of psychological warfare. they become arrogant. Nations move in 50 to 60-year cycles! When politicians hold power for too long. • How is it used against us? • Develop self-defense measures. legal and illegal.Their goal is to amass fortunes through all means. cadres of corrupt cronies. The result is that these countries have been financially plundered. an underdeveloped private sector and little economic and social progress.com/atimes/Middle_East/ML22Ak02. and preserve their dynasty in any way that they can (such as pampered intelligence and military services. http://atimes. live a life of luxury. with an inhospitable business climate. discriminatory governance to divide the citizenry.html Where is this place? Middle –east! 9 . and costly foreign support). Politics Economics Social 10 . ALTHOUGH BN WANTS THE PEOPLE TO BELIEVE THEY CAN LOSE! 11 .Politics Social Economics BN CANNOT LOSE. WE NEED TO STUDY HISTORY ! Year 1959 1964 1969 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1995 1999 2004 2008 Alliance Party/BN* Seats % seats % vote Seats Opposition % seats % vote Total seats 74 89 95 135 130 132 71.15 85.58 65.97 87.66 84.42 85.71 51.7 58.5 49.3 60.7 57.2 60.5 30 15 49 19 24 22 28.85 14.42 34.03 12.34 15.58 14.29 48.3 41.5 50.7 39.3 42.8 39.5 104 104 144 154 154 154 148 127 162 148 198 140 83.62 70.55 84.38 76.68 90.41 62.61 55.8 53.4 65.2 56.5 63.9 52.2 29 53 30 45 21 82 16.38 29.45 15.62 23.32 9.59 36.93 41.5 46.6 34.8 43.5 36.1 47.8 177 180 192 193 219 222 12 BN 140 MPs (63.1%) 8 states 50.27 % of votes PR 82 MPs (36.9%) 5 states 46.75 % of votes http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysian_general_election,_2008 Putra Jaya (BN) Smallest 6608 voters Kapar (PKR) Largest 112,224 voters Voters ratio = 1:17 Even the 2nd smallest seat, Lawas, has 15,717, which is 2.4 times larger! Selangor Constituencies Same DUN but separated by land and sea 15 15 . N45 SELAT KELANG Same DUN but separated by land and sea 16 . comprofessor.html District A.Four evenly matched districts Redrawing of boundaries to give three-district advantage to Party 2 All districts produce an even voting ratio for each party Party 1 SOURCE: http://www.com/2010/10/gerrymandering-through-corporate.B.C votes 90% for Party 2 District D votes 90% for Party 1 Party 2 17 . One Voter One Vote ? Question: Do the Chinese & Indians decide for a simple majority? Courtesy of the famous retiree: Ng CN 18 . 2.140 Total Parliament seats: 222 Simple majority: 112 seats DESIGN: 1st 112 seats: 1.08 million votes required (19%). Do you agree that 2 million can decide for 28 million? 19 . 2008. BN contested 139 seats to win 112 seats.Total voter population: 10.922.85 million. Pahang: 8. Perak: 12. Sarawak: 25. (Peninsular Malaysia: 61) For simple majority rule. Johor: 13. Only for 2/3 majority. incl Labuan: 26. rural Bumis decide. the non-Bumis have a say! (Show Sabah & Sarawak powerpoint) Seats can be increased after Mar 2011 but need 2/3 majority. BN can even create 200 Putrajayas! 21 .The smallest 112 seats come from: Sabah. Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 1 .28 13 = Sarawak 12 = Sabah Majority Sabah & Sarawak 22 . 56 23 . 29 .Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 84 24 .Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 57 . 112 25 .Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 85 . 1: BN cannot lose. education and health-care facilities.Point No. Is that the reason we have such blatant corruption and inequality? Is it a coincidence that the poorest groups with the worst infrastructure. are the king-makers? Is it a coincidence that the natives are driven off their land to join the urban poor? 26 . It‟s good to belong to the Ruling Class! States with the highest incidence of poverty: Sabah & Sarawak 27 . Answer: You have to avoid a 2/3 majority to prevent too much power in the hands of the Ruling Party.Results of not paying attention: Ruling Party enjoyed 2/3 majority for more than 50 years since 1957. Compare with US. 28 . Consequences: 700 Constitutional amendments since 1957. 234 years old: Only 27 Constitutional amendments. 21-06-1962, Constitutional Amendment: Article 116: Safeguard to maintain voter difference to less than 15% removed. Clauses (3), (4) and (5): Clauses were repealed by Act 14/1962, sub-section 22 (c) Source: (page 197) http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/--ilo_aids/documents/legaldocument/wcms_125966.pdf 29 36 Politics Economics Social 37 Politics Social They start looking for alternatives! 38 Economics . they have nothing left to lose ! 39 .CIVIL UNREST: When the poor are hungry and angry. EGYPT 40 . 41 . 42 . Do we want this? No! 43 . WE GO BANKRUPT BY 2013! 44 . BONDS: Thompson Reuters Eikon GLC’s: Annual Accounts DOMESTIC DEBT: Treasury Report CAUTION: There may be some double-counting due to obscurity of some of the figures in the Treasury Report. GLC & Domestic Debt Analysis: Credit to Lee Wee Tak 45 . NATIONAL DEBT – Govt Bonds USD 179.8 B 13.2011 USD 44B rolled over last year! 46 .01. Screenshot of Thomson Reuters Eikon 47 . 5 Billion 48 .NATIONAL DEBT – GLC’s USD Million GLC: Govtlinked cos USD 19. DOMESTIC DEBT 31st Dec In 3 ½ years. domestic debt has gone up by 70%! USD 125.9 Billion USD 136 B : 57% Debt/GDP 49 . May 2010: 134% Malaysia 144% Jun 2011: 144%! 50 .TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 B Countries that collapsed at Debt/GDP: Ireland. Dec 2010: 96% Greece. TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 B WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM? 51 . 53 How can the Govt afford giving out RM 500 per head? What‟s the source? . annual deficit: 4 – 5% Operating expenditure eats up all revenue & pensions depend on current income.CAN IT GET WORSE? Debt/GDP: 139%. RM 500 for 3.3 million students: RM 260 million. Money given today will be taken back via GST tomorrow – Anil Netto: Atimes 54 .8 billion. One-off RM 100 aid each to 5.RM 200 vouchers for 1. Civil servants increment 7% .13%.3 million students: RM 530 million.4 million households: RM 1. 00% 14.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2. corrupt. Does a change of govt solve these problems? 55 . poor work attitude.00% 6.4 M How long can this go on? Problem: Low productivity.Bureaucracy as % of Population 16.00% 12.4 M Civil Servants. entitlement-mentality.00% 4.00% 10.00% 8. 3 M RELA = 4. WHAT ARE THE PIIGS ? P: Portugal I: Ireland I: Italy G: Greece S: Spain 56 . WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PIIGS DEFAULT ? • THEY GET SLAUGHTERED ! • Bond yields shoot sky-high • Is that Malaysia’s fate ? 57 . • GREECE Bond-buyers have to take a hair-cut ! In late October 2011. Greece offered 25% only. euro-zone governments called on Greece to secure a 50% write-down on the debt held by private creditors. Must charge very high interest to compensate – more than 100%! Source: Wallstreet Journal 58 . BUT MALAYSIA IS DIFFERENT ! • • • • We have oil palm! We have oil & gas! We have electronics & electricals! We have high savings rate – EPF! 59 . In 2009. Robert Kuok was forced to sell off his sugar monopoly to some “businessmen”. How has it hurt us? • Robert Kuok invested in the world‟s largest sugar mill in Australia. Our international sugar price went up. Don‟t mess with Robert !Kuok. 60 . SUGAR PRICE World price dropped but domestic price went up by 40%! Why ? International sugar price goes down 61 . Oil palm: Najib asked China to increase oil palm import from Malaysia but no deal. That‟s our lowest-cost competitor! Will it hurt us? Blowback from grab of Robert Kuok‟s sugar business in Malaysia (click to see link) 62 . • Why? • Robert Kuok‟s Arowana Cooking Oil controls 40% of China domestic oil palm refining • Then Robert Kuok decided to invest USD 10 B in Indonesia oil palm. 63 . • So previous CEO forced out & replaced with Najib nominee.BUT WE STILL HAVE OIL & GAS. • Petronas tried to stop the outflow. • Ex-CEO now working for Singapore. 2015! • Govt demanding more and more money from Petronas. • We become net importer by 2014. Even China is having a housing bubble and if her exports are hit for her biggest market (Europe). So‟s the US. Europe is in serious trouble. she will import less from Malaysia. • Outlook does not look good. 64 .WHAT ABOUT ELECTRONICS & ELECTRICALS? • • • • This depends on foreign countries. tindakmalaysia.NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO CHINA ! Property crashing .com/showthread.php/1928-China-Crash-Coming-China-That-Urban-EmptyFeeling?highlight=china+ghost+cities 65 .Chinese ghost town: http://www. The soft landing view foresees Chinese central technocrats responding timely with well-calibrated fiscal and monetary policies that maintain GDP growth of around 8%. 66 . the annual rate Beijing must achieve to absorb new graduates into the work force and keep unemployment manageable. a credit crunch and consumption collapse that no amount of government intervention will be able to meaningfully forestall.html 67 . Southeast Asia will inevitably be among the worst hit by a soft or hard landing in China. http://atimes. The hard landing scenario predicts that an uncontrolled implosion of the property market will unleash waves of wealth destruction.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/ML 22Ae02. • So they tap into EPF for cheap funding.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/EPF-in68 Trouble2. http://malaysiatoday. Govts do this as a matter of routine when they get into trouble.pdf . • By now 60% is gone! • That‟s our retirement savings! Don’t feel bad.OUR GOOD OLD EPF WILL SAVE US ! • Malaysia cannot borrow cheaply from international market as we are in the same situation as Greece. subsidies. • Cost-cutting – pensions. civil service. • New currency with massive devaluation.IMPLICATIONS: INTERNATIONAL BAILOUT Greece outlook: Look at Greece‟s situation • Expulsion from EU. • Sale of state assets. 69 . • Job loss. welfare aid. • Drop in wages. govt services. • Equivalent loans from international market will exceed 10% interest.LOCAL IMPLICATIONS • Petronas. govt services. http://www. banks and insurance cos forced to buy low interest Govt bonds. 70 .com/malaysia/article/civilservants-fear-losing-jobs-in-iwk-restructure/ Restructuring and down-sizing Govt.themalaysianinsider. slash pensions. subsidies. 08 trillion) from year 2000 – 2009.000/person! Highest in the world per capita! 71 . 5th largest in the world! RM 39.DO THE BUSINESS PEOPLE KNOW? GFI reports that Malaysia lost USD 338 Billion (RM 1. 08 Trillion? RM 100 notes stacked all the way from Singapore to Phuket! Equal 75% of US Govt‟s gold in Fort Knox! For the smallest 112 seats.000 72 .How much is RM 1. each voter lost RM 73. 24% of GDP ! Where did this money come from ? 3 x KL MRT RM 250.Equal to RM 100 notes stacked all the way from Singapore to Phuket! Capital flight RM 150 B in 2009.000/family ! Watch out for a currency crash! 73 . 74 . 75 . 44 0.476 oz 0.47 0.41 0.48 0.46 0.42 0.43 0.Monthly Salary (oz of gold) 0.4 0.45 1970 Amah 0.39 1970 Amah 2010 Graduate An Amah in 1970 earned more than a Graduate today?!! .426 2010 Graduate 0. DO OUR LEADERS KNOW ? CASHING OUT ! PUSHING MALAYSIA TO BANKRUPTCY ! . they owe EPF RM 6. Instead. By 2011 they should have RM 25B cash. Lim Teck Ghee warning. They should make RM 2 B per year. 78 . FELDA had RM 4.FELDA: Dr.5B cash. ex-Dep Min of Primary Industries: In 2001. they will find some suckers in the KLSE to buy their shares during listing. Why ? Never mind.5 B. Tan Kee Kwong. 79 . Not economical – sure bankrupt.KL MRT 12 times cost of Beijing – Shanghai High Speed Train. KLIA2: COST JUMPED FROM RM 1.9 B WITH 1 YEAR DELAY ! 80 .6 B TO RM 3. 2 B but sold for only RM 1.• Sg Besi Airport land. worth RM 5.6 B ! 81 . • Millions lose their jobs. • Civil servants chopped by 2/3. • Put all the laws in place to control dissent. 82 . • Bring IMF in to do the dirty work.WHAT‟S THE PLAN? • Regain 2/3 majority to shore up power. • Push country to bankruptcy. it is our duty to obey the law. 84 Let all Malaysians stay home for 1 week! .• PREPARING FOR UNREST ! Public Assembly Bill passed to prepare for repression by the police As law-abiding citizens. Muhammad Safwan Anang taken to Slim River hospital in critical condition 85 .01.1st JAN 2012: START OF POLICE STATE ? UPSI 01.12: The president of undergraduate movement Bebas. Spain.EVENTS OUTSIDE OUR CONTROL • • • • • • • • SOVEREIGN DEFAULT: Italy. China 86 . France. US. UK. Greece. EPF.WHAT ARE THE DANGERS ? • • • • • • • • • Banks or bank holidays. Borrowings and high-gearing for businesses. Mortgages for speculative investments. Mutual funds. Commercial property & housing. Police State 87 . Shares. Capital control. Bank Runs 88 . NEW MALAYSIAN EXPORT: MAIDS & LABOUR Maybe to Indonesia! 89 . HYPERINFLATION Zimbabwe. 1 year later. Nov 2007: USD 1 = Zimbabwe Dollars 1 million. it was ZDR 250 billion! 90 . Intervention of other states or external factors. 10. Sharp & severe economic decline. Chronic & sustained human flight. 12. 8. WE ARE HALF-WAY THERE 1. 6. 7. 2. Uneven development along group lines. Security apparatus as “state within a state”. 11. 5. Criminalization &/or delegitimisation of the State. 3. Rise of factionalised elites Demographic pressures.Where Will End Up?? 12 FACTORS OF We A FAILED STATE. Massive amount of refugees. 4. Widespread violation of human rights. 9. Progressive deterioration of public services. . Legacy of vengeance-seeking groups over past grievances. 30 STAGES OF COLLAPSE Public Assembly Bill IMF 92 . IS THERE HOPE ? 1. There are 198 non-violent methods – http://www..aeinstein.. • Will they come in if its management is corrupt? 2. When nearing bankruptcy.org/organizations/org/ 198_methods-1. Do you want to hold corrupt leaders to account? 3.pdf 93 . • A country‟s best chance of survival is for foreign investors to bring money in. com: • History • Religion • Psychology • Social • Trends • Finance & economics • Politics • Strategies of non-violent self-defense For simplification: Use mental models! 94 .1ST UNDERSTAND THE SYSTEM Study tindakmalaysia. (Shrinking) (expanding) 95 . UMNO Rebels 96 . 97 . ATTORNEY GENERAL’S OFFICE ELECTION COMMISSION (EC/SPR) IMMIGRATION DEPT INLAND REVENUE BOARD (IRB) JAKIM/MUIS JUDICIARY MACC MILITARY INTELLIGENCE/UNIT TINDAKAN KHAS (UTK) POLICE/SPECIAL BRANCH RELA ROS 98 . SYSTEM DEPENDS ON CASH-FLOW LOYALTY IS TO MONEY SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN WHEN CASH-FLOW STOPS 99 . HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN ? Leverage 100x Are banks safe? 4 million foreigners Are jobs safe? http://www.my/index.gov.imi.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=524%3Ajumlah-statistik-pekerja-asing-sah-dan-pati100 yang-telah-didaftarkan-menerusi-program-6p-sehingga-18-ogos-2011&catid=1%3Aberita-terkini&lang=bm . POLITICS STARVE THE BEAST SOCIAL X ? ? ECONOMICS 101 . SYSTEM RESTS ON CONFIDENCE ! CONFIDENCE & TRUST 102 . It retires worn-out industries and reduces costs so that new industries can arise. It forces capital into more productive. Solution for US Debt: http://www. It‟s the „destruction‟ that Schumpeter‟s „creative destruction‟ needs.com/showthread.tindakmalaysia. It wipes out bad investments and eliminates bad speculators.WHAT WE NEED ! The US: A depression does a lot of good. more profitable uses. It kills off zombie industries. 103 . We cannot ignore the laws of economics for too long.php/4259-NIANswersFAQ?p=11708#post11708 Same for Malaysia. Economic cycle: 50 – 60 years ! http://en.2013 .wikipedia.svg 104 .org/wiki/File:Kondratieff_Wave. HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ? • Bank savings: Convert to gold bullion. 105 . • Commercial property: Sell. • Pensions: Withdraw if possible. • Taxes: Minimize exposure through incorporation. • Stocks and mutual funds: Sell all. • Insurance: Give it up. • Stock up on essentials & dried-food. • Life-style: Cut down on expenditure. • Businesses: Minimize loans. • Financial: Reduce debt. Keep only 1 to stay.HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ? • Housing: Sell. • Food-growing land – move to the countryside! • Barter trade 106 . • Do you own due diligence. your family & your friends. • Use the knowledge wisely to protect yourselves. • Help one another. • Monitor future events carefully and compare with what is said today to see if it makes sense. 107 .PREPARING FOR A HARSH FUTURE • Don‟t accept whatever is said today. • Our best protection is National Unity. http://www.com/watch?v=tGk5ioEXlIM&featur e=player_embedded Teh Chi Chang‟s analysis: The Budget & it‟s Shadow.pdf 198 Ways To Bring Down A Dictatorship. High Alert! http://thedailybell.com **** 108 .FURTHER READING Banking & debt. **** PACABA 0 Thread & Tindakmalaysia.youtube. simply-explained.com/Public/Files/High%20Alert%20%203rd%20Edition(1). Join Tindak Malaysia To be free: Understand psychological warfare. Join us. Mental revolution needed to take action.com. Click the top yellow banner at tindakmalaysia. or email: pywong. Learn self-defense [email protected] Spread the word ! 109 .